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Amanpour

Brazil's Growing Protests Examined; Taliban Ready for Peace Talks in Afghanistan?

Aired June 19, 2013 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour.

All around the world, it seems, whether in a democracy or a dictatorship, people are rising up. We've seen it in Turkey recently, in the United States with the Occupy movement and of course throughout the Middle East with the Arab Spring.

And now it's happening in Brazil, an explosion of discontent is rocking the country as hundreds of thousands have taken to the street of cities across the country, demanding more from their government.

These mass protests are far larger than those we saw in Turkey last week, and they've taken the Brazilian government, as well as the rest of the world, by surprise. It's a world, of course, used to Brazil's Carnival atmosphere and its soccer fame and its growing global clout.

What started as anger over bus fare hikes has morphed into discontent about paying high taxes for what many see as inadequate public services, education and health care as well as corruption and the billions of dollars that are pouring into projects for the upcoming World Cup and the Olympics, money, many say, that would have been better spent on improving living standards.

But instead of turning on the protesters, Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff, a former leftist guerilla who once herself was imprisoned and tortured, has embraced them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DILMA ROUSSEFF, PRESIDENT OF BRAZIL (through translator): Brazil walks stronger today, the greatness of the demonstrations yesterday proves the importance of democracy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Now the Brazilian government has ordered federal riot police, special forces into the streets to contain the protests and another big one is planned for tomorrow.

So now my exclusive interview with Brazil's foreign minister, Antonio Patriota. He joined me from Oslo to discuss why a growing middle class in Brazil seems to have turned on its government and what his government plans to do about it.

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AMANPOUR: Foreign Minister Patriota, thanks for joining me from Oslo.

ANTONIO PATRIOTA, BRAZILIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: Thank you very much, Christiane.

AMANPOUR: Let's try to get to the bottom of what's happening in your country. There have been large protests since last week. Now your president, Rousseff, has said that this actually shows the strength of democracy. She actually embraced them. And yet there are reports now of the government sending federal special police to major cities to contain the protests.

Why are you doing that?

PATRIOTA: The president has set the tone for the reaction of the government. She has said that Brazil has risen a stronger nation after the protests. Her government, along with that of President Dilma before her, has brought millions out of poverty.

We are eliminating extreme poverty in Brazil. Millions have joined the middle class. And it's natural that rising living conditions should give rise to higher expectations.

AMANPOUR: But why, then, if this is all legitimate, are special riot police, federal police being sent to five major cities? I guess my question is are you not afraid of seeing the same kind of violence and confrontation that, for instance, Turkey has seen over the last couple of weeks.

PATRIOTA: Well, I think it's a different situation. The manifestation have been peaceful predominantly. There may be episodes of violence here and there and of course the security forces have to be prepared because there are large numbers of people involved.

But by and large, this has not been the case and our expectation is that they will continue to manifest in a peaceful way. Brazil, Brazilian government has gone out of its way to reach out to civil society. And it's natural that individuals or groups should wish to participate in the democratic debate concerning the future of the country.

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: So let's get to the --

PATRIOTA: (Inaudible) this government will rise to the challenge in a peaceful way also.

AMANPOUR: -- well, let's see what the government will do in terms of policy because at the heart of the matter is the fact that Brazilians pay amongst the highest taxes in the world and that clearly these protesters have said that they're not getting their money's worth. They're very concerned that they're not getting the social services that they feel they're paying for.

We know that this started because of a hike in bus fares by several cents. But like many of the protests we've reported on over the years, it has mushroomed.

What are the policy, I suppose -- I suppose changes that will enable Brazilians to feel that they're getting the education that they need, the health care that they need, the services that they -- that they want for the taxes they pay?

PATRIOTA: It's true that the protests started with a rise in transportation prices. So this issue is being dealt with as well. But I think the reaction is a positive one. It's one of responding to the manifestations by saying we want to be attentive to your voices. We want to hear your voices. Your voices will be taken seriously. Civil society has a right to manifest. Let's see what we can do together.

AMANPOUR: So what can you do together? Because clearly, you know, over the last several years, Brazil had an exemplary economic growth. It was -- it was huge compared to so many other countries. And as you say, millions, tens of millions of people were raised out of poverty and into the middle class.

Now that growth has slowed down over the last couple of years quite significantly. And it appears that the people are, you know, having been risen to the middle class and now feeling that, you know, they don't have the protections in place and they see their position in jeopardy.

What is the structural changes that you have to put in place to protect the middle class and make sure that it is a strong structural middle class for the future?

PATRIOTA: Brazil today has a situation of nearly full employment which is quite in contrast with many economies in the developed world, in Europe for example. And as I was saying, you know, these rising standards of living have given place to a new set of expectations. And this is, I think, the central message of the manifestations.

They will be taken on board. Of course, it is important that the manifestations continue to be peaceful as they have been up to now. And the government will continue to promote these improvements in the social services, very attentive to these voices, as I've said, because they are voices that also reflect a very vibrant democracy.

And as you know, we have struggled in Brazil to obtain the democracy that we have today. And those in power, such as President Dilma herself, who was in prison during the years of military dictatorship, will ensure that all voices that have legitimate claims will be heard.

AMANPOUR: And finally, some Brazilians are calling for a boycott of the World Cup.

What do you make of that?

PATRIOTA: Well, I think it's democratic to voice different opinions about any phenomenon that is taking in your country. But I believe that by and large Brazil remains very enthusiastic when it comes to soccer, soccer tournaments. And it will be a big success in 2014.

AMANPOUR: Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota, thank you very much for joining me.

PATRIOTA: Thank you so much, Christiane.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: And of course we're going to keep an eye on what's happening in Brazil because even though the government -- and you hear the foreign minister -- and the president embrace these protesters, they are planning more mass protesters tomorrow and the special police forces have been brought out. We'll see how and if they can keep these under control.

Now, after a short break, we'll turn to Afghanistan. Twenty-four hours after this hopeful sign, the Taliban opening an office in Doha amid plans for peace talks with the Afghan government, President Karzai is angry and the talks are now in jeopardy. I'll have the story when we come back.

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AMANPOUR: Welcome back to the program. After 12 long years of fighting in Afghanistan, there is a new glimmer of hope, suddenly the Taliban has announced that they're ready to hold peace talks in the Doha, the capital of Qatar.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMED NAEEM, TALIBAN SPOKESPERSON (through translator): The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, in addition to its military efforts, also has political goals and strategies related only to Afghanistan, which does not intend to cause harm to others.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: In Kabul, the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, also extended an olive branch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HAMID KARZAI, PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN (through translator): Our High Peace Council will travel to Qatar to discuss peace talks with the Taliban. We hope that our brothers, the Taliban, also understand that the talks will move to Afghanistan's soil to ensure peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: And while wrapping up the G8 summit yesterday, President Obama was cautiously optimistic.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is an important first step towards reconciliation, although it's a very early step. We anticipate there will be a lot of bumps in the road. But the fact that the parties have (inaudible) talk and discuss Afghan -- the Afghans in the future, I think, is very important.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: But that was yesterday. Today the talks have hit their first road bump as President Karzai backed out, angry that the Taliban seemed to portray the Doha office as a de facto embassy and themselves as a legitimate international partner.

So what is going on?

Marc Grossman was special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan for the United States State Department. He's been down these bumpy roads before and he joins me now from Washington.

Ambassador Grossman, thanks for joining me.

MARC GROSSMAN, FORMER U.S. ENVOY TO AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN: Christiane, thank you very much for having me.

AMANPOUR: So what is going on? First, I must say there are reports that Secretary Kerry has tried to head this off at the pass. He's assured President Karzai that these signs declaring a sort of an embassy in the Doha office are coming down. And obviously he wants these talks to continue.

So what do you think? I mean, you've been here before. Will they happen?

GROSSMAN: Well, I think they'll happen, yes, over time. I think, Christiane, what you see is exactly as people were saying yesterday and President Obama, others who were commenting on this, this was a good first step yesterday. But, my goodness, this is going to be a long road and it's going to be a bumpy road.

And as you just said, we've hit the first bump. I think what's very interesting, though, is that this first bump meant that the Taliban realized that they'd overstepped their bounds. There was a deal that had been done. They weren't supposed to call this office the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. And when they did, people called them on it.

And today the government of Qatar, the foreign ministry said, no, no, that's not the name of that office. It's a political office (inaudible) Afghanistan. They took the signs down. And so, in a way, you have a first step where somebody violates the rules and then they realize there are consequences.

I must say, from my perspective, I could certainly understand why President Karzai was disappointed. That wasn't the deal. But the deal now seems to be back on track with the efforts of Secretary Kerry and others.

AMANPOUR: All right.

GROSSMAN: And I think over time this will happen.

AMANPOUR: So why now? Why did after 18 months of all of this did the Taliban decide to announce the opening of this office?

GROSSMAN: Well, it's hard to know. It's obviously, you know, their decision-making is kind of mysterious. But I'd give you a couple of reasons.

First of all, the news yesterday wasn't only about the opening of a Taliban office. It was also, as you'll remember, the handing over to the Afghans of security lead all throughout Afghanistan. And I think when the Taliban looks out, what do they see? They see an increasingly successful Afghan national security force.

They see the United States of America with a strategic partnership agreement. They see the international community committed to staying in Afghanistan after 2014. And I think they look at their world and they say, well, we could wait and do nothing. But maybe it's time to get back in this.

I'll give you another idea that I have, which is also that the Pakistanis have started to change their view. And more and more Pakistanis, Christiane, I think understand that chaos in Afghanistan is bad for them. And I believe they sent a message to the Taliban saying now's the time.

AMANPOUR: But also the Taliban yesterday, as they opened this office, basically said, you know, our actual aim is to get rid of all so-called occupation forces. So on the one hand, they're sort of agreeing with the U.S. to have these talks. On the other hand, it -- they want the U.S. out. The U.S. wants to stay in some kind of strategic forces agreement with Afghanistan.

How is this going to work? It seems like you're still far apart.

GROSSMAN: Well, first of all, I mean, as you and I have talked about before, it's hard to fight and talk at the same time. And that's what you see, I think, in these early days.

But the point of the statement that the Taliban made yesterday, I think from the perspective of the administration, as I understand it, was that, first, they said that they were going to disassociate themselves from international terrorism. And you showed that in your lead.

And secondly, that they were interested in a political process in Afghanistan. And for the opening of the office, that's enough. And now the next phase of this is to try to get Afghans talking to other Afghans about the future of Afghanistan, because that's key.

And that will, it seems to me, lead to further set of considerations about kind of how the Taliban will understand that U.S. and international forces will be in Afghanistan after January 1, 2015.

AMANPOUR: It's going to be interesting to see how you bridge that. And do you believe that Mullah Omar is backing this? You said you think the Pakistanis are putting some kind of support and backing behind this.

Does Mullah Omar want this? And to your point about how the Taliban are looking at the battlefield and thinking, hey, we need to come to the table, by the same token, U.S. commanders have said there is no victory on the battlefield. They have not defeated the Taliban; let's be honest about it. And they also need, the U.S. needs a political settlement.

So who's got the advantage here?

GROSSMAN: Well, I think, I hope that who has the advantage are the people of Afghanistan in the sense that there's going to be, after 30 years of conflict, some conversation among Afghans -- let's emphasize that -- about the future of Afghanistan. You know, I think what General Dunford said yesterday was that there's no military end to this war. There's going to be a political end.

And the way I've put it is, is that you're either going to shape that political end or be shaped by it. And so I think it's important for the United States, the Afghans' friends and allies, to be part of this.

On the question of the other side, Christiane, again, it's a mystery. But my sense of this is, is that if there wasn't a decision from the very top of the Taliban movement, I don't think people would have been in front of cameras in Doha yesterday.

AMANPOUR: So what about the fact that -- I mean, everybody knows the Taliban's view on women, the Taliban's view on all sorts of democratic changes that have come to Afghanistan.

Yes, the President of the United States says that in order to be part of the process, they have to respect the Afghan constitution. But do we really think that that's what's going to happen? Do you really believe that that's what's going to happen?

GROSSMAN: Well, Christiane, I think that the question is not so much to the Taliban. It's to Afghans. And I believe that Afghans, given the progress that they have made over the past 10 or 12 years -- and there's still lots more to do -- but given the progress there's been in Afghanistan over the last 10 or 12 years, these people, Afghans, I think they'll fight for what they have achieved.

And I think that's one of the reasons that the Taliban understands that they can't win this struggle militarily and that the question to the Taliban is that they have to accommodate to the changes in Afghan society over the past 10 or 12 years, not the other way around.

And so I believe that Afghans will fight for what they have.

And when you talk about these very important end conditions that Secretary Clinton and the President of the United States, the international community have talked about, don't forget that's about breaking ties with Al Qaeda, ending violence and, very importantly also, not just living inside a constitution of Afghanistan, but a constitution that protects the rights of individuals and particularly the rights of women.

AMANPOUR: And obviously, a key requirement for any kind of peace talks is an end to violence. And meantime, the Taliban, as they open that office in Doha, are still busy killing people in Afghanistan, including one of the members of the High Peace Council of Afghanistan.

So do you think that we're going to get them to stop the violence as a way to open these talks?

GROSSMAN: Well, I don't think there's going to be an end to violence to open the talks. I think that the Taliban will continue to try to fight and talk at the same time.

And you know, so will the ANSF and so will international forces who have to -- who are supporting the ANSF.

The question is whether you could begin a conversation to end 30 years of conflict, number one, and number two, whether the Taliban understand that these three end conditions -- break with Al Qaeda, end the violence, civil society in Afghanistan protecting the rights of women -- we mean this. And that is for them to accommodate to this and not the other way around.

AMANPOUR: And to circle back to how we started, the Taliban clearly wants to be taken seriously as a legitimate international partner. Frankly, they laid that out in their own words in their press conference yesterday, or their televised address yesterday, saying they want to talk to the U.N. and to this government and that government.

How are you going to prevent them from being internationally accepted legitimate players if they're going to have all this sort of legitimacy around them?

GROSSMAN: Well, first of all, I'm of course not party to all of the details. But surely the government of Qatar, the government of the United States, the government of Afghanistan have worked some general rules about this office.

So, for example, that it doesn't become a recruiting station for the insurgency. It doesn't raise money. And there will, I'm sure, be other limits as well. The important thing here is that, yes, this is about the United States and the Taliban talking because we have some issues.

But the most important thing about this office is you get Afghans talking to other Afghans about the future of Afghanistan.

AMANPOUR: Ambassador Grossman, thank you very much indeed.

GROSSMAN: Thanks very much for having me.

AMANPOUR: And we'll be back with more on the bumpy road to peace in Afghanistan with CNN's Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr after a break.

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AMANPOUR: And finally tonight, imagine a world where the U.S. and the Afghan government look set to enter peace talks with the Taliban, the same group that they soundly defeated and dispatched 12 years ago.

Of course, in those intervening years, the Taliban have come roaring back and American military commanders have declared that Afghanistan would not be won on the battlefield, but now at the negotiating table.

So these developments that we've been talking about must be giving the brass at the Pentagon palpitations.

To gauge that, CNN's correspondent Barbara Starr, who's been at the Pentagon for all of this tumult, joins me right now.

Barbara, what do you make of what's going on right now in Afghanistan?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think military commanders would tell you, Christiane, exactly what you said. This is not a war that's going to be won on the battlefield. They are going to have to negotiate a political settlement.

But here's the problem. Once President Obama said that the U.S. would be out essentially by the end of 2014, what message, what military message did that send to the Taliban? Do they just sit around and wait till the U.S. essentially packs up and goes?

That's been a worry that so many have, like Senator John McCain, who says, look, you have just handed it over to the Taliban. They have a much longer timeframe of operations than the U.S. does. All they have to do is wait until the end of next year.

And there is some concern that that's a little bit of what we've seen in Doha. So they put up some signs. So they took down some signs. Still, at the moment, what is going to make them give up any of the gains that they've made?

AMANPOUR: So what do you and what do the brass at the Pentagon make of what Ambassador Grossman just told me, that, you know, as they survey the lay of the land, the Taliban themselves are saying, hey, you know, the Afghan forces are getting stronger, that now is the time to negotiate rather than continue to put up the fight.

Is that realistic?

STARR: Well, I think many people would still say to you that though here in the West we don't put ourselves into the head, if you will, of the Taliban and into that movement. Do they need, do they want even to take over Afghanistan as they had it before 9/11? Maybe not. Maybe they just want areas.

Maybe they just want this or that village or this or that outpost in the most remote areas of Afghanistan, certain areas they can influence, areas near the Pakistan border where they can come and go as they please. That would be individualized safe havens, if you will, for them, for Al Qaeda.

Maybe we shouldn't be thinking of this as we would think of it, as one single conquer, one single unilateral government of the territory of Afghanistan. I think that's a very significant worry that essentially you will have the government in Kabul but you will have the reality out in the most rural areas of the country.

AMANPOUR: And finally, we hear, obviously, the public statements that this is not going to be won on the battlefield, et cetera, et cetera. But remember, it was actually won on the battlefield 12 years ago. What does the Pentagon think, maybe even privately, you know, these are the people who they, as I said, soundly defeated and now they're having to do a deal with them?

STARR: Well, you know, I think it really comes back to this question -- I know it sounds very cliche -- insurgency warfare. This is a lesson that the U.S. has learned over and over again throughout history, especially back in Vietnam. You don't defeat an insurgency on the battlefield. You may think you have. It may even last for a while.

But insurgencies aren't defeated that way. They never have been. This is something that will have to be settled at the negotiating table. And what the U.S. commanders need is the best deal the politicians can get for them, the most assurances they can get about security. It won't be foolproof; it won't even -- may not even be, you know, 100 percent.

But they're going to take what they can get. And what they're trying to do now is maneuver and leave Afghanistan in the best shape they can so they can get the best deal that they can.

AMANPOUR: And finally -- again, finally --

(LAUGHTER)

AMANPOUR: -- yesterday was the handover of security from U.S. and NATO forces to the Afghan forces really and genuinely and truly, are they up to the job now, to take over the security of their country?

STARR: Well, most U.S. commanders will tell you that they are very good fighters, you know, in a scrap, in a fight. I don't think anyone doubts the ability of the Afghans to engage in battle. These are very tough, fierce, proud people. But -- and it's a big but -- this is much more of a modern world than they've ever been involved in.

Do they have the helicopters, the airplanes, the medical evacuation, the communications, the intelligence? They can fight village to village, mountain to mountain, valley to valley. Can they really ensure security across a broad swath of the country?

And again, it gets back to what will Afghanistan be? Will this be a national government with a national security structure that is very credible to its own people? Or will this be a country of bits and pieces, Christiane?

AMANPOUR: Barbara Starr, thank you very much for joining me from the Pentagon.

And that is it for tonight's program. Meantime, you can always contact us on our website, amanpour.com. Thanks for watching and goodbye from New York.

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