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Amanpour

Does Extreme Cold Mean No Global Warming?; The Hard Work of Making Peace; Imagine a World

Aired January 07, 2014 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

HALA GORANI, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Hala Gorani, sitting in for Christiane Amanpour.

In Atlanta, where it is really, really -- and I mean really -- cold, - 13 degrees Celsius as we speak. And Atlanta is not alone. A punishing air mass is hovering over much of the United States.

So how cold is it? Well, CNN's Stephanie Elam was in Minneapolis, Minnesota, yesterday, where her cup of boiling hot coffee turned to snow the instant it hit the frigid air. Scientists call this weather pattern the polar vortex, a mass of cold air that slipped its leash in the Arctic and wandered off down south.

So while the U.S. is experiencing arctic temperatures, the Arctic itself is no colder than -- that's right -- Atlanta, Georgia. And extreme weather is not just a U.S. phenomenon, of course. In the United Kingdom, flood warnings have been issued for large swaths of the coast as torrential rain and exceptionally high tides pound England, Scotland and Wales.

Meanwhile, Australia is being blitzed by a heat wave with temperatures reaching above 50 degrees Celsius in places. That's more than 120 Fahrenheit. Water supplies are dwindling in the outback and crops are roasting.

This comes on the tail of a sweltering 2013, Australia's hottest year ever. But here in the frigid United States, CNN's Ted Rowlands is in Chicago, where the Illinois state governor has declared a weather emergency and activated the National Guard.

How bad is it, Ted?

TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Hala, it is bad. And you know, it's -- I'm sure the Aussies are a little uncomfortable being so hot. This is painful; it is so cold we're below zero Fahrenheit and have been for the last two days in Chicago and around the Midwest. And it's causing a lot of problems, mainly transit problems, air travel has been delayed extensively throughout the United States and not only that, the highways have frozen up. Now the salt that they normally put down to help with traction, it is so cold it's not having the effect that it normally has. So there's been tons of accidents throughout the region. And trains, there were three separate trains traveling from California to Chicago that were stalled because of huge snowdrifts on the tracks. They literally got stuck. Those passengers were forced to sit on the trains overnight. Some of them have just been bused back to Chicago. Here at Union Station, their final destination, talking to them, it was quite an experience to sit through the night on that Amtrak train.

The good news, Hala, we're expected to get around zero degrees Fahrenheit in the next few hours. And as sad as that is, that sounds luxuriously warm.

GORANI: All right, warm and toasty there in Chicago.

When are things expected to get back to normal in Chicago and other areas that have been going through this arctic freeze?

ROWLANDS: Well, in the next day or two. It depends where you are but the temperatures are going to rise up and things will be getting back to normal; schools will be back in session, all schools in Chicago canceled for the second day straight. Most schools are on the state cancels in Wisconsin, Minnesota and here in Illinois.

Tomorrow we're going to see a warm-up and we're going to -- kids will be back in school; people will be back at work. And things will be getting a little bit back to normal, people very eager to get back to work, get back to normal because it's so uncomfortably cold.

GORANI: Well, when they close schools in Chicago, you know it's serious. Thanks very much, Ted Rowlands, in the United States, the extreme cold means it's open season for a chorus of climate change doubters with variations on a theme of how can global warming be real if it's so damn cold out?

Well, it is, after all, let's admit it, a fair question. So I asked climatologist Richard Alley, a member of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, when I spoke to him earlier today.

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GORANI: Richard Alley, thanks very much for being with us.

How much of this extreme weather is related to climate change anyway?

RICHARD ALLEY, CLIMATOLOGIST: Maybe a little bit of climate change, but this is mostly weather, big, exciting weather.

GORANI: So what does that mean, essentially? Why these extremes and why with more frequency, it seems?

ALLEY: Yes, so we know that if you roll dice often enough, occasionally snake eyes will come up three times in a row. You know, if you watch where the cold is in the Arctic that occasionally the cold in the Arctic comes wandering down.

When it happens, we've got this big loop in the jet stream that has the cold sitting over us and over you in Atlanta. But that sort of deflects the jet stream and so the big storms that are screaming into Cornwall may be linked to the same (INAUDIBLE) in the jet stream that's made us cold.

GORANI: OK. So if you say there's a little bit of a correlation between these extreme weather patterns -- and everybody's been talking about how many more extremes we've been witnessing, a little bit of a correlation -- between that and global warming, global climate change, what is the causal effect here?

ALLEY: Right. So we know the globe is warm. If you look today, the average temperature of the whole world is above its long-term average. If you look in the north, in the Arctic, it's a good bit above. The Northern Hemisphere is, the Southern Hemisphere is, the tropics are, the Antarctic are. The big enough pieces are above average.

And that's because we've raised CO2 in the atmosphere.

GORANI: And that's undeniable.

ALLEY: In turn, that -- that is very, very good. We scientists don't like to say undeniable. We like to say very high confidence. But this one is, you know, if I drop it, it's going to fall down as opposed to floating up. Now if I drop my pen at the moment you turned on your giant electromagnet, it might float up. But you know the answer.

And so --

(CROSSTALK)

GORANI: The answer is very high confidence --

ALLEY: -- (INAUDIBLE) raising temperature.

GORANI: The global temperature (INAUDIBLE) is getting warmer.

ALLEY: Yes.

GORANI: So --

ALLEY: And that means a few things. One is that if you're downwind of the storm in Cornwall, the ocean is a little higher than it used to be and that makes the waves worse.

If you're downwind of a big storm or a hurricane or something and it's a little warmer, there's a little more water in the air and it rains on you harder. Your cold snap is not quite as cold as it used to be. But we've only warmed up 1 degree and this is a 20-degree cold snap. So mostly this is weather.

GORANI: So what's the big deal? What's the problem if the Earth warms a few degrees over several decades or centuries? In the end, is it a big problem?

ALLEY: In the end, it will be a big problem. A little bit of warming, we may have fewer blizzards; we may have fewer cold snaps. There's some good for those of us in cold places. There's not much good for people in places that are already uncomfortably hot. And you remember that the world is this giant tropical band and these little polar caps.

And so a lot of the world is already a little bit hot. As we raise the temperature going through decades and beyond, you start to get to the point where it's hard to work outside in the tropics; you get to the point where our crops have troubles growing because they're just too hot. You get to the point where you really worry about melting big chunks of ice that are sitting in Greenland and Antarctica and raising sea level a lot.

The first degree of warming doesn't cost that much. We've had that one. The next degree costs more than the first one. The next degree costs more than that one. And as we move out of what we're used to, as we move out of what we've adapted to, the costs go up faster and faster.

GORANI: So what can be done? I mean, in the end, can't humanity if not reverse global warming at least stop this trend in global temperatures going up and up and up as time progresses?

ALLEY: Oh, absolutely. There's all kinds of -- the easy answer is we need to reduce the amount of CO2 that we put into the air, which means either using different sources of energy than fossil fuel or taking the CO2 and putting it back in the ground in some fashion.

And the energy is there. If we could get 1/100th of 1 percent of the sun's energy, that's all the energy that humanity uses. If we could put wind farms on the windy parts of the plains and deserts of the world, that's more energy than all humanity uses.

And if we decided to burn the fossil fuels and put the CO2 back down, there's lots of places to put it.

GORANI: There are very high-profile people who disagree with you. They may not be scientists, but they get a lot of retweets on Twitter. Donald Trump, for instance, as we mentioned there, is saying we got to stop with this bull and then I won't go with the rest of it, of extreme -- you could see extreme weather; you could see that we are colder than we were in some parts of the United -- of the globe, which means that global warming is a myth. It's a myth.

How do you respond to people who say that? Because they have a very big audience.

ALLEY: It's true; we keep repeating the science and making the story clearer. The knowledge that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and it has a warming influence, we've had for more than a century. And the real physics of it were refined by the Air Force after World War II, when they were working on sensors for heat-seeking missiles.

And in some bizarre sense, to deny global warming is to question the ability of the Air Force to put the right sensor on a heat-seeking missile. This is knowledge that we can use. Knowing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas doesn't tell you who to vote for. It doesn't tell you what taxes to support. It gives you knowledge that you can use.

GORANI: Have we broken our planet for good?

ALLEY: I think of global warming the way I think of saving for retirement. If you -- the way in responding all delay is costly. You start early; it's way easier and you can do way better in the end.

But whenever you start, you help yourself. And somebody that didn't start saving for retirement in their 30s can start in their 40s. Someone who didn't start reducing global warming in switching to a sustainable energy system in the 1990s can start in the 2010s.

GORANI: You've been studying this for decades. Are you worried?

ALLEY: I'm very worried that if we don't respond, that we end up worse off. Initially, the losers are poor people in hot places. Eventually the losers are our grandchildren and their grandchildren. If we take our knowledge and we use it with what we care about and where we want to go, we have good confidence that we end up with a bigger economy. We end up with more great jobs. We end up with greater national security and we end up being more consistent with the Golden Rule.

GORANI: Richard Alley, thanks very much. Pleasure talking to you today.

ALLEY: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: And while the frigid weather here in the U.S. is a nightmare for humans, another member of the population is thriving: the polar bear in Chicago's Lincoln Park Zoo is in her element -- literally. And while plunging temperatures may be unbearable for the rest of us, we might recall Mark Twain's famous comment that "Everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it."

Sadly, despite recent efforts, the same might be said for the Israeli- Palestinian peace talks.

Ari Shavit is one of Israel's most influential columnists, shared the frustration about lack of progress as well as an abiding love for his problematic Promised Land, when we come back.

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GORANI: Welcome back to the program. I'm Hala Gorani, sitting in for Christiane Amanpour.

Israelis and Palestinians may not be able to reach an initial peace deal by the target date in April. Israel's defense minister suggested today. Some disappointing news on the heels at U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's 10th visit to the region. He's been relentlessly trying to forge peace between the two sides since this summer, when talks resumed after a three-year break.

All the while, the health of former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon continues to decline forcing much reflection on his legacy and the question, would Israeli-Palestinian relations look any different today had Sharon not fallen into that coma eight years ago?

With me now to talk about that and much more is one of Israel's most influential columnists, Ari Shavit. He's just written a book called, "My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: Mr. Shavit, thank you for joining me from Tel Aviv.

One of the things you said about John Kerry --

(CROSSTALK)

ARI SHAVIT, COLUMNIST: Pleasure to be with you.

GORANI: Thank you, Ari. One of the things you said about John Kerry and his push to try to forge some sort of deal between Israelis and Palestinians is don't try to build a castle in the sky. Does that mean you're pessimistic? Does that mean you don't have much hope for this latest initiative?

SHAVIT: Well, I'm, first of all, very much impressed by Secretary Kerry's determination and commitment and he's been doing an amazing job. So although I still think that there is a high risk there, because I think the chances of reaching a real final status agreement between Israelis and Palestinians within months, even within a year, are not that great. But one has to recognize the fact that Secretary Kerry with unique ingenuity and pressure and commitment has surprised us all.

And so far he achieved much more than most of us in this captive (ph) region have thought. And therefore I think that it remains to be seen. I think that what we are looking into right now is an American attempt to form some sort of document which will not be a peace agreement but will set a framework for the negotiations. And then we'll bide time so the process will be prolonged probably until next Christmas or something like that.

And that creates, I would say, some sense of cautious optimism. And yet, if God forbid, the secretary fails, the ramifications would be serious and possibly dramatic.

GORANI: So how would this not be a repeat of what we've seen before? And one of the things you said in the past about what needs to happen in that part of the world is, quote, "an emotional breakthrough."

What is an emotional breakthrough in this situation?

SHAVIT: Well, first of all, for me, the ultimate emotional breakthrough, where is when an Israeli prime minister will go to Ramallah, speak directly to the Palestinian people, acknowledge their tragedy, their pain and reach out with them to move forward, while a Palestinian leader will come to the Knesset in Jerusalem, recognize the Israeli tragedy, the Jewish tragedy, the Israeli legitimacy, reach out to the Israeli people and therefore create a new emotional climate.

This, I'm afraid, we will not see because both leaders are not built. We do not have a Nelson Mandela right now; we don't have an Anwar Sadat. We will not see that right now.

But what is interesting about the process right now is that Secretary Kerry is using a different tactic than the -- some of his previous secretaries; and he's really putting a lot of pressure on both sides but while acknowledging their fears and their concerns, he spends a lot of time with them. And I think he was -- he's using carrots and sticks with a kind of emotional empathy to bring the leaders together.

Again, I do not see this producing peace; but he is -- so far has been able to soften a bit some of the opponents and some of the positions, at least in the Israeli right. And this is why we see some signs of hope. And yet, it's very tricky; the odds are not promising and we all have to pray that he will succeed. But it's not clear that this will -- is the case.

GORANI: Now you talk about an emotional breakthrough. But isn't it also about a balance of power? I mean what power does the Palestinian side have? What power of influence does it have in any negotiation against Israel, in this case, even if they had a Nelson Mandela. Even if, at this stage, they had their Nelson Mandela, which you say Palestinians have always needed and haven't had?

SHAVIT: Contrary to the common belief, I believe the Palestinians have enormous power. The Palestinians have the key to Israel's legitimacy in the region and in the international community. I think that one of the reasons that Prime Minister Netanyahu is deep in this process is that Israelis are afraid to lose their legitimacy, both regionally and worldwide. And therefore, if the Palestinians will recognize the right of Israel to be a Jewish state, a legitimate Jewish state in this region, that will be a great gain for Israel and that will be something they can deliver.

I think the formula, the secretary's working right now on, tries to -- is built on a kind of triangle where Israelis will have to accept 1967 borders; the Palestinians will have to accept a Jewish state and Jerusalem will be -- will be shared in some sort of way. He's looking for a formula that has these three components. No sides will totally accept the formula.

But if they do not reject it totally, then he will have some sort of achievement.

GORANI: And your book, "My Promised Land," and the subtitle of the book is, "The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel," you have said in previous interviews that it is your, quote, "duty to be honest" about your country. And some of the things regarding your country, the creation of Israel, that are darker chapters of the creation of Israel, that you looked into, what is it that you think people should know about Israel, about your country, that perhaps is the tragedy of Israel versus its triumphs?

SHAVIT: Well, if I have to say now in a few sentences about the book, I think the book -- what the book tells you is that, on the one hand, what the wonder Israel is, contrary to many of its adversaries and critics, Israel is a manmade miracle. It's a home for a homeless people, created against all odds. And in this sense, it's miraculous and wondrous.

On the other hand, the book explains really the depth of the conflict. And as I said on several occasions, I'm against occupation and against settlements and I hope we can reach a deal right now. But the conflict is not only about the occupation and settlements.

And what I do in the book is that I look into our history, the heroism, the greatness, the durity (ph), but also the darker side. And I acknowledge this darker side. And I ask my Palestinian counterpart to see that while I acknowledge their tragedy, the fact that they went through terrible pain and many of them lost their homes and experienced a terrible tragedy, I say to them, I ask them, in a sense, to move on. I recognize their painful past; but I ask them not to be a victim to that past and to move on just like the secretary is trying so we can create a future for their children and ours and not be in a kind of -- in a constant -- not to perpetuate the tragedy, because a tragedy is there. But we do not have to accept it and become slaves to it. We actually have to deal with it, to wrestle with it and move forward.

GORANI: You talk about in some cases in the -- during the process of the creation of Israel, about one aspect of Jews who establish this homeland for themselves, how they did not feel sympathy or empathy for those they uprooted to create this country.

Why not? As you were looking back.

SHAVIT: Look, I think that the heart of this conflict is really mutual blindness. We were blind to the fact there is a Palestinian people; in the beginning they were not quite defined as a people, but they were there. We were blind to their existence. They were blind to the fact that we are a people, that there is a Jewish people that has a right to have a Jewish state, a Jewish homeland in the ancient homeland of the Jews. This is the double blindness that created this terrible, complicated conflict.

And what I say is that we have, we Israelis and Jews, have to acknowledge that the Palestinians are there to move forward from the old blindness, see them, recognize them, see their tragedy, see their rights, give them a state of their own. But it is their duty to recognize the fact that there is a Jewish people, there should be a Jewish state and that we are legitimate here.

So this is when we move beyond the diplomacy and the politics of the day and what the secretary is trying to do, when you look at the depth of it, this is what eventually will bring the real peace and reconciliation long-term. I'm afraid that right now we are not there. So if we will have some sort of progress, it will be more limited right now.

But at the end of the day, I think that this deeper emotional thing of we seeing them and they seeing us is essential for any reasonable deep peace in the future.

GORANI: Ari Shavit, thank you very much for joining us on CNN today.

SHAVIT: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: And since we're always looking for hopeful signs in the region, and they're hard to find, the temperature in Jerusalem today was almost balmy, in the high 50s. However, for many of the rest of us, especially here in the U.S., the weather outside is frightful.

Have our modern conveniences and high-tech forms of communication made us even more vulnerable to Mother Nature? We'll take a snow day and find out when we come back.

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GORANI: And a final thought tonight, remember when Grandpa used to brag, "When I was your age, I walked five miles through the snow just to get to school."

Nowadays all it takes is the threat of snow and frigid temperatures to close schools, cancel flights and turn TV weather people into prophets of doom and the rest of us into cave dwellers, waiting out the apocalypse.

But imagine a world where the weather may or may not be worse, but we may be in danger of becoming wimps. So suggests Christopher House, writing in "The Telegraph," and maybe he's on to something.

Winter storms used to make our ancestors huddle together to stay warm like penguins. In Holland, Britain and America, they even had a word for it, called "bundling." Who knows, without that primitive thermal solution, we might not even be their descendants.

Bundling isn't big these days; instead we stay connected via social media and depend on state-of-the-art technology to get us places as they heat our schools, offices and homes. Progress is wonderful, but it does come at a price. A storm that brought out the best in our great- grandparents and also brought them closer to their neighbors can now leave us isolated, unplugged and unable to deal with Nature's fury.

That's going to do it for our program tonight. Thanks for watching. And goodbye from the CNN Center.

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