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More Deaths In Ukraine as Fighting Continues; The Middle East in Crisis; Imagine a World

Aired February 10, 2015 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST (voice-over): Tonight: heavy shelling in Eastern Ukraine on the eve of last-ditch peace talks in Minsk. So is a

deal possible? I'll speak live to Ukraine's ambassador to the United Nations.

Plus the heartbreak of Kayla Mueller's family. She's the young American aid worker who's been held and killed in the hands of ISIS. Former State

Department adviser Vali Nasr tells me fear is the group's most powerful weapon.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VALI NASR, AUTHOR AND DEAN OF JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: That's the intention of the brutality. There is, I

think, a method to ISIS' madness. And that's shock and awe.

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AMANPOUR: Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program. I'm Christiane Amanpour.

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AMANPOUR (voice-over): The death toll in Eastern Ukraine is climbing even as the West scrambles to secure peace. At least 12 more civilians were

killed today and dozens have been injured after Russian-backed separatists shelled the town of Kramatorsk while earlier cameras had captured the

dramatic moment that a rocket hit a soup kitchen near Luhansk.

The terrified people inside that soup kitchen then dive for safety down a nearby cellar.

International aid workers tell us how hard all of this shelling is on the civilians who are trapped in the war zone. We managed to get through to a

Medecins sans Frontieres field worker in the rebel-held eastern city of Makiivka.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've had about 25 casualties brought to the hospital. So the situation in town is -- there's a feeling of a ghost town. There is

not much movement out of the 50 schools of Makiivka territory have been damaged in the past -- in the previous months. Water, supplies,

electricity are regularly interrupted and of course there is a shortage of medicine and medical equipment.

So, yes, there is -- we have the feeling that nobody's caring about them.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: And this surge in combat is happening against the backdrop of peace talks, happening tomorrow between European leaders and Presidents

Putin and Poroshenko. That's in Minsk in Belarus.

And joining me now to talk about whether a cease-fire can actually be achieved this time is Yuriy Sergeyev, Ukraine's ambassador to the United

Nations.

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AMANPOUR: Ambassador, welcome back to the program. We've been here before. There has previously been a cease-fire deal signed again in Minsk;

it didn't hold.

Do you believe there's a real chance for one this time?

YURIY SERGEYEV, UKRAINE'S AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: Thank you for inviting me. So my optimism is restrained. My optimism is based on the huge,

enormous activity diplomatic and political undertaking by the world leadership to bring peace to Ukraine.

But I am restrained because of the shelling of the town of Kramatorsk, where you said 12 have been killed already. It happened before. Any of

the talks on the peaceful settlement when militants, they started shelling, most probably they are using that for the stronger arguments at the

negotiating table. I don't know.

But this is awful. This is inhuman, what they are doing.

AMANPOUR: Let me ask you, can you tell me the details?

What is on the table?

What is Ukraine prepared to give?

What is Russia prepared to give?

SERGEYEV: As I understand, in Kiev, that in Munich and that in Washington, the sides agreed to put the Minsk agreements as the basis for the future or

the next talks because the Minsk agreements, they contain all the compromises possible. These agreements, they are all -- they open the

doors for the peaceful settlement. That's why Minsk agreements will be again the base for the talks.

AMANPOUR: Right. That is what your side is saying, but of course as we've been reporting since that Minsk agreement, there has been significant

Russian and Russian-backed movement and the line has been pushed west.

So Russian news agencies are reporting that the main point of negotiations, quote, "the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the establishment of a

demilitarized zone and the beginning of permanent dialogue between Kiev," your capital, and Donbas, in other words, elements of the rebel-held

region.

Is that what you understand?

SERGEYEV: The signal we got from the Kremlin, but I don't know if it is the official stance of the leadership in Kremlin or it is just

interpretation because as I know, from the telephone conversation of the -- tomorrow's meeting, among the leaders, so they agreed on the basic

principles contained in the -- in Minsk agreement.

So what keeps coming from Moscow, this is the continues denied from Russia's side there as the part of the dispute, of the conflict. That's

why the push (ph) asked to speak directly to the militants supported by them. But they are denying that they are the third party for -- to that

conflict.

AMANPOUR: So are you going to --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: -- are you going to? Will the -- will the rebels, the militants, whatever you want to call them, the Russian-backed separatists,

will they be part of the negotiations?

Will they be at the table?

SERGEYEV: They used to be invited and they participated in the meeting of the contact group in Minsk and Minsk agreement was signed by two leaders of

the so-called Luhansk Republic and Donetsk Republic.

Today when we are speaking of, you -- they are in Minsk and they are speaking with Ukraine and Russian and OEC representatives. So they are

there; we are not denying their participation in that meeting.

But we do understand that this are a strong position of Russian Federation to stop support of the terrorism in Ukraine but to move out the Russian

troops and the mercenaries. So without that, we can't approach the peaceful solutions, it is clear.

AMANPOUR: Give me an idea of how dire the situation is for your forces. We understand that the vital railway town of Debaltseve is practically if

not -- is not completely encircled by Russian-backed forces.

How -- give me an idea of what's happening and what would happen if that town fell to those forces.

SERGEYEV: Well, so they declared the open attack on our positions alongside all the contact line, including Debaltseve. So instead of

negotiating the line we agreed in Minsk, they decided enlarge the territory's control by them and to start negotiating from this new status

quo point to demand more territories from our side. This is their tactics.

That's why they are fighting for Debaltseve, Kramatorsk is one of the key elements in that. They attacked in Mariupol on the south. So -- and they

are performing this position just on the eve of the peaceful negotiations. So it happened before. They are trying through that to threaten us and to

gamble their position instead of realizing what they agreed before in September, it's clear.

AMANPOUR: We read --

(CROSSTALK)

SERGEYEV: And Russia supports that.

AMANPOUR: -- we read that actually Ukrainian forces are now fairly demoralized, that they're being paid a little bit extra to continue

fighting. They say that every time we turn around, we keep killing these people but more and more of them keep coming. And we don't have what's

necessary to fight.

How badly is your back against the wall?

SERGEYEV: Well, as to the Ukrainian army, it is not true that they are demoralized. They are united as never. So -- and the -- how they defend

our land, it's just the example that they are strong in the spirit. This Russian propaganda, which is disseminated --

(CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: Well, no, no, this is not actually Russian propaganda.

No, no, these actually were in the "Financial Times." I'm reading quotes by reporter from the "Financial Times" --

SERGEYEV: OK, but --

AMANPOUR: -- but let me -- I understand what you're saying. You're saying your forces will keep fighting.

But I want to ask you this. You have also asked for weapons to be able to defend yourself. As you know, there is no idea that you're going to get

weapons and most people don't actually want to send you weapons. I asked the chief of NATO, General Breedlove, about what could be achieved by

sending weapons.

And he was quite pessimistic. Let me play what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. PHILIP BREEDLOVE, USAF, COMSAC: We will not be able to give Ukrainian forces enough equipment or time in order to defend against the Russians.

If the Russians are completely determined to hold the situation in the Donbas that puts Kiev into a bargaining position, where they have to come

to the table and meet Russian needs, Russia will apply the necessary pressure just like they did in late August.

And so we should not attempt to enter into a situation where we try to match their capability to meet that; they simply will not be able to do

that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Do you accept that, Ambassador, that no matter how much weaponry you might get, it will never match what Russia has?

SERGEYEV: Thank you for bringing this issue because it's very important.

Peaceful negotiations are not contested and not compromised but we need really to make our armies stronger because it was destroyed in the past

purposely.

So basing on the Article 51 of United Nations charter, we addressed the worldwide to help us military for the collective self-defense. Some of the

countries they started to help us, for example, Poland. Some of them started to supply non-lethal weaponry. So some of the countries, they

expressed their readiness to supply us defense weaponry.

So what I had from the NATO leadership was NATO is a bit different story because their decision should be collectively supported. That's why I

don't understand the explanation of the NATO leadership. But we count on other partners in Europe and in the United States and Canada. That's why

we are still waiting the support to help us to defend other territories, to the help -- to help defend ourselves, to -- because we are targeted by the

so sophisticated weaponry and without the adequate response, we can't resist in a way to stop the aggressor.

AMANPOUR: Right. Well, Ambassador Sergeyev, on the eve of these very, very important talks, thank you very much for joining us tonight.

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AMANPOUR: And as the West hopes for an agreement on laying down arms in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is presenting arms in Egypt; on an

official trip there he gave President Sisi an AK-47, prompting one Egyptian wag to joke on Twitter, "Putin gave Sisi an AK rifle? I hope this isn't

the weapons deal that everyone has anticipated for months."

Later Putin spent the night at the Cairo Opera. And just as Russian turns to the Middle East, so do we. Next: the Arab Spring turns 4 years old.

Who would have thought it would be back to the bad old days across the region? Vali Nasr's unique take when we return.

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AMANPOUR: Welcome back to the program.

The family of the U.S. aid worker, Kayla Mueller, who was held hostage by ISIS for more than a year, has confirmed that she is dead after they say

they saw proof of death pictures which were sent by the group.

They claimed last week that Kayla had been killed in a Jordanian airstrike. The rise of this terrorist organization is one of the biggest challenges

for the region as the Arab Spring turns 4 years old. And what started with so much hope in Tunisia and Egypt continues with the raging war in Syria

and the failing state of Libya.

Few people know the region better than Vali Nasr, former State Department adviser and dean of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International

Studies. I sat down with him recently for a rather bleak tour of the shape of the region today.

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AMANPOUR: Vali Nasr, welcome back to the program.

NASR: Thank you.

AMANPOUR: So here we are in a real big sort of turning point crisis situation, even deeper after the murder of the Jordanian pilot.

Are people finally disgusted with this group or not?

NASR: I think they are disgusted with this group but they're also afraid of this group. And that's the intention of the brutality.

There is, I think, a method to ISIS' madness. And that's shock and awe, which is to instill enormous amount of fear in the militaries that they're

likely to go after them.

It took a lot of effort by U.S. and Iran to shore up Kurdish and Iraqi forces. Still ISIS wants to slacken the resolve of the Kurdish Peshmerga,

of the Shia forces coming after them, of Jordanian troops by this savagery.

AMANPOUR: But you don't think it's overreached?

NASR: Possibly it has. But ISIS is not playing right now for public opinion in the Arab world. It's engaged in a military campaign. This is

not ideological. This is not about Islam. This is about a particular tactic of war that this vicious group has adopted.

AMANPOUR: You talked about the U.S. and Iran. Obviously we're right in the middle yet again of sort of critical juncture in the nuclear talks and

the general feeling is one of pessimism right now.

Do you think they're going to reach a deal by the prescribed date?

NASR: I think there's only a slim chance that they will largely because the timeline is too narrow; they have put large hurdles before themselves

and the domestic constituencies in each country is still -- has to be sold the idea of a deal.

And in Iran, the Supreme Leader is supportive of a deal of negotiations but not of compromise. And I think in the U.S., too, we're supportive of a

deal but not of compromise.

AMANPOUR: So what is the best-case scenario?

Do you think that they will continue this interim?

Or will the whole thing blow up if they can't actually make the deal by the next deadline?

NASR: I think they will arrive at a point where the objective will not be a deal but the objective will be to arrive at a formula that would keep

conversation going forward and actually to relieve the talks from these narrow timelines that are put before it.

But I think one of the problems is the U.S. Congress and the fact that we're going into general elections, which means that the administration's

leverage and authority to cut a deal with Iran is actually eroding and the Iranian trust in the Obama administration delivering is also diminishing.

AMANPOUR: Saudi Arabia has traditionally been, for this last several years anyway, the sort of bulwark against Iran's power.

Now that we've seen King Abdullah give way to King Salman, do you think anything will change in terms of their policy?

NASR: It might in minor ways. King Abdullah was known to hold grudges and to have very strong opinions, whether it was about Bashar al-Assad or Prime

Minister Maliki in Iraq or about Iran. But King Salman is believed to be much more pragmatic in that sense. And then he may find a way to lessen

tensions with Iraq.

But I think the fundamental, strategic problems Saudi Arabia has with Iran, which is a rise of Iran or Iran coming out from the cold will diminish

Saudi Arabia's regional role and would lessen Saudi Arabia's importance to the West. I think that fundamentally doesn't change with the -- with a

change of a king in Saudi Arabia.

But that said, the transition, combined with rise of ISIS, combined with nuclear talks, combined with lowering of oil prices, has reduced Saudi

Arabia's regional importance and leverage.

AMANPOUR: There are these allegations right now by the Al Qaeda prisoner, Zacarias Moussaoui, that the Saudis actually paid for 9/11 or at least for

a huge part of it. And now some in Congress are demanding that some of the classified sections of the 9/11 Report dealing with Saudi Arabia be

revealed and be declassified and suggesting that some of these allegations are in that paper.

NASR: I think generally that Saudi Arabia may have supported the machinery of Al Qaeda for its own purposes as is believable and -- but I think the

more interesting thing is not what happened in 2001, but much more recently, which is to what extent Saudi Arabia's support for radical

elements fighting Bashar al-Assad actually helped produce --

AMANPOUR: ISIS.

NASR: -- ISIS. You could say the West is collateral damage in a dangerous Saudi strategy of managing its regional power play against Iran by using

the instrument of jihadis that then it loses control over.

AMANPOUR: I was speaking to the former Jordanian foreign minister, Marwan Muashar. He told me it's gone to a pre-Arab Spring period.

Let me just play what he said to us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARWAN MUASHAR, FORMER JORDANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: The West is back to looking at the region through the prism of stability, thinking that

stability by brute force is going to be the preferred policy. We're back to the pre-2011 uprisings that have led in the first place to these

uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: So is reform, democracy, kind of dead at the moment in those Arab Spring countries?

NASR: Security wise, we are back to the old order. Now the West is not going to send troops to the Arab world. So the next best thing is to go

back to the way in which the Arab world was being managed, which is by a stable authoritarian regime.

But the only problem is that these authoritarian regimes are only a pale shell of what they were before the Arabs. They're not what they were.

AMANPOUR: Why not?

NASR: Well, because they were -- they were weakened by the Arab Spring. Now the region is actually dotted by failed states. Now you look at Libya.

You look at Yemen. You look at Iraq. You look at Syria.

And then you see the fact that the most potent military force in the region is actually a vicious terrorist organization in the form of ISIS, which is

actually carving out a country right in the heart of the Middle East.

So yes, the United States has nostalgia for pre-Arab Spring, but that's a mistake because the Arab regimes are not able to play that role and in

doing so may get themselves into greater trouble.

AMANPOUR: So when you look at this map, there's not a lot of bright spot there.

NASR: But ironically, the bright spots are not where we're looking, which is one is in Tunisia, although it's also threatened by Libya now. And it's

in Iran. These are the -- sort of the more stable countries in the region.

AMANPOUR: Vali Nasr, thank you very much.

NASR: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Troubling times indeed. And after a break, we have a final thought about one of the last foreign hostages held by ISIS. We imagine

what Kayla Mueller might have done with a longer life -- after this.

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AMANPOUR: And finally tonight, imagine a world through the eyes of a young aid worker who was desperate to make a difference. Tonight, we remember

Kayla Mueller.

She was only 26 years old and today confirming her death at the hands of ISIS her family said, quote, " Kayla was a compassionate and devoted

humanitarian. She dedicated the whole of her young life to helping those in need of freedom, justice and peace."

Kayla was captured by ISIS in 2013 while working in Aleppo, Syria, with an aid organization. The French journalist, Didier Francois, also held by

ISIS, told me that he was held near Kayla.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DIDIER FRANCOIS, JOURNALIST AND FORMER HOSTAGE (voice-over): No, they were in a separate room. We didn't see them much. They were usually not

handcuffed so they were --

AMANPOUR: They were not handcuffed?

FRANCOIS: No. They had a bit more freedom of movement and sometimes they were forced to cook. And they were also always moving us separate in a car

during the moving between places.

But it's frightening enough to be held by ISIS and being a woman is -- doesn't make it easier.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Now Didier and others were released and Kayla sent a letter to her parents, telling them, "I know you would want me to remain strong.

That is exactly what I am doing."

Today President Barack Obama said that she represented what was best about America.

And that's it for our program tonight. Remember you can always see the whole show online at amanpour.com, and follow me on Facebook and Twitter.

Thank you for watching and goodbye from London.

END