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Amanpour
Interview with The New York Times Magazine Staff Writer and "Rise and Kill First" Author Ronen Bergman; Netanyahu Speaks Amid Rising Tensions in Middle East; Interview with Director of Research at Soufan Group Colin Clarke; Interview with The Los Angeles Times Middle East Bureau Chief Nabih Bulos; Interview with Former IDF Intelligence Chief Tamir Hayman. Aired 1- 2p ET
Aired July 31, 2024 - 13:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[13:00:00]
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN SENIOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Hello, everyone, and welcome to "Amanpour." Here's what's coming up. The Middle East on edge.
Regional tensions rising after Hamas political leader is killed on Iranian soil. Israel says it doesn't want war but is preparing for all
possibilities. This hour, we'll get reaction from Israel, Lebanon and beyond. Including the former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate. Is
escalation avoidable? And where does this leave negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire and the fate of the remaining Israeli hostages?
Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York in for Christiane Amanpour.
We begin with the tinderbox in the Middle East and the threat of all-out war between Israel and Iran. Here's what we know at this hour. Hamas'
political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an early morning strike Wednesday in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Iran and Hamas claim Haniyeh, who was a key player in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations, was assassinated in Israeli airstrike. Israel has
neither confirmed nor denied involvement. But we do know that senior Israeli officials vowed to eliminate Hamas in the wake of its October 7th
attack.
Haniyeh's death came just hours after Israel said that it killed Hezbollah's most senior military official in the Lebanese capital of
Beirut, which was breaking news on our show yesterday. Israel blames Hezbollah for an attack in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights, which killed
12 children last Saturday.
Right now, an ominous signal from Iran's holy city of Qom, where a red flag symbolizing revenge has been hoisted over Jamkharan Mosque. Senior Iranian
diplomats say Tehran will retaliate for the death of Hamas' political chief. And Iran's supreme leader is vowing revenge, saying this, you killed
our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.
We've got a lot to unpack this critical hour. Let's get the very latest from our correspondents. Ivan Watson is in Beirut, but let's start with
Nick Paton Walsh in London and the enraged rhetoric coming out of Iran. And, Nick, no surprise, this rhetoric coming out of Iran and what is
clearly seen as an embarrassment for them.
Israel has been behind previous assassinations inside Iran of Iranians, but to have somebody from a visiting country come in, as the supreme leader
said, a guest of that country's to be killed with such precision is quite an embarrassment in terms of Israel's intelligence deep inside that
country.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and it's not clear at this stage whether the fact that this not one of Iran's
own, but a visiting Palestinian, will weaken or exacerbate any Iranian response here.
We are hearing one of the scant details we have, frankly, about how this extraordinary violation of Tehran security occurred from a Hamas
spokesperson saying that Haniyeh was hit in his room by a rocket, presumably at that time of night while he slept.
So, extraordinary accuracy given the only other casualties we know about are a bodyguard who was there, potentially as well. Unclear if anybody else
was even hurt in the building where this was and the exact location still unclear as well. Special residence is a term being used in Iranian state
media.
So, all of that part of a narrative that Iran is yet to clarify. But fiery rhetoric, as you say. Already, the supreme leader talking about harsh
punishment being imminent. A heavy price is what an incoming foreign minister has been talking about as well. But quite how this manifests
itself as yet entirely unclear.
Randomly, somewhat, the United Nations mission in New York for Iran talked about special operations being one option. They don't set policy, but
that's, I think, a reflection of the open debate we're seeing Iran carry out to work out what it can really get away with, what it can actually
execute on what reestablishes its sense of authority and deterrence in this region.
Suggestions too from the Israelis that they are continuing to push forwards with their goals on their northern border with Lebanon, simply talking
about how they want to push Hezbollah back from there. So, a sense perhaps of the Israelis on the front foot here, trying to dictate terms with
Hezbollah, the threat to the north and clearly hitting Haniyeh just after that strike in Southern Beirut against Hezbollah commander, whose body
appears to have now just being found in some of the rubble there.
[13:05:00]
That many considered to be the sort of tit for tat for the death of Druze teenagers in the Golan Heights over the weekend. This death of Haniyeh
totally in keeping with Israel's policy since October the 7th to hunt down Hamas leaders, but leaving in utter tatters negotiations between Hamas and
Israel.
Haniyeh was one of the negotiators. He's now dead by Israel's hand. And a massive sense of uncertainty as to what Iran is capable of, what it's
willing to do, and what, frankly, it needs to do to reassure allies that it still remains a potent power in the region, Bianna.
GOLODRYGA: And as we noted, Ivan Watson, let's turn to you now, as yesterday we spent most of this program covering what Israel did
acknowledge and take credit for, and that is the assassination of a senior Hezbollah official, Fuad Shukr, the IDF, late last night, confirming from
their intelligence that he was indeed killed in that strike. And we're just now getting word that his body was recovered in the rubble. Give us a sense
of the reaction thus far from Beirut and any statements out of Hezbollah itself.
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Right. I mean, Hezbollah has not confirmed any of this information, but CNN has learned
from a Lebanese security source that the body of Fuad Shukr, the target of Israel's strike at around sunset yesterday evening, was in fact recovered
from the rubble of this building. Five stories of the building kind of sheared off by the Israeli airstrike.
Fuad Shukr, a senior official in Hezbollah, he's been wanted by the U.S. government for years, which has had a $5 million reward for information
about him. Because they've labeled him a specially designated global terrorist. And they've accused him of playing a central role way back in
the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks here in Beirut that killed more than 200 people. So, this somebody who was wanted by not only the Israeli
government, but also the U.S. government.
And while it does appear that Israel succeeded in killing this important Hezbollah official, they also killed a number of civilians here in Beirut
in this strike. There were funerals today for two siblings, children, a 10 and six years old, who were killed in that airstrike. Hassan Fadlallah. Age
-- sorry, Hassan Fadlallah age 10, and Amira Fadlallah, age six and their older brother, Ali (ph), is in a hospital right now. At least two other
women also killed in that attack.
Hezbollah has issued a statement expressing condolences for the assassination of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, clearly an ally of
Hezbollah, which has been carrying out prosecuting a border conflict with Israel over their mutual border basically since the October 7th attacks in
solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
So, the tension here between Lebanon and Israel has been huge for the better part of nine months. And now, a country very much on edge, worried
that it could be brought into a much larger conflict now that these two assassinations have taken place together, so close together in both Beirut
and in Tehran.
GOLODRYGA: Ivan Watson in Beirut, Nick Paton Walsh in London. Thank you so much for joining us.
Well, Israel's foreign minister now says the only way to prevent, in his words, all-out war is the implementation of a U.N. Security Council
resolution, which was originally devised to end the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Let's bring in journalist and author Ronen Bergman, he's senior
correspondent for the Military and Intelligence Affairs for Israel's largest newspaper, and a contributing writer for "The New York Times." His
most recent book is called "Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel's Targeted Assassinations."
Ronen Bergman, welcome to the program. As always, you are the perfect guest specifically on this topic of targeted assassinations because that appears
to be exactly what we've seen with precision. Israel taking credit for the strike against the senior Hezbollah official there, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut.
Yet to take credit for what is assumed to be an Israeli strike against the Hamas official there in Tehran.
And I'm curious, from your perspective, what you make of the timing and the fact that Israel is doing this now following what we saw was a huge
escalation from Hezbollah on Saturday, where the Israeli defense minister himself said Hezbollah had crossed a red line following the death of those
12 children, the Druze children there in the northern part of the country.
[13:10:00]
RONEN BERGMAN, STAFF WRITER, THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE AND AUTHOR, "RISE AND KILL FIRST": So, thanks for that. I think we need to make -- maybe
make some kind of differentiation between these two attacks. There's one attack that Israel claimed responsibility for and said this was following
the killing of 12 teenagers and children in the Golan Heights a few days earlier. This was part of an ongoing exchange of blows and attacks between
Israel and Hezbollah starting on the 8th of October. So, one day after Hamas attack in the south, Hezbollah started to attack Israel in the north.
And ever since, they just exchanging horrible, horrible fight and battles and hits and attacks against each other.
However, they keep that under some kind of a level, some kind of a bar where they try to assess with where is the bar for the other side that
would deter the other side from continuing to accelerate, but will not deteriorate the whole region into war.
We have seen 10 months of these two military forces, the IDF and Hezbollah, doing horrible things to each other and to civilians. And I think --
civilian in urban areas. And I think what we learned from that is that these two sides are trying to do, to harm the other side while not
deteriorating into a war.
Hezbollah has identified what happened on Iran, what happened on this attack yesterday as something that they would retaliate. And of course, it
sorts of left an open question of what would be the retaliation. And if that would bring Israeli retaliation for the retaliation that could
escalate when both sides lose control. But if this was not enough, then a few hours later, someone in Israel did not claim responsibility.
GOLODRYGA: Ronen, I'm just going to interrupt, and if you can just hold please, because we are going to go live to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu, who, as you know, as is addressing the Israeli public right now on Israeli television in Tel Aviv.
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): -- missiles that -- and that Iran is trying to put on us. I cited three
arenas, Houthis, Iran, and Hezbollah. We put a real hit on them. We took Mohammedef (ph) two weeks ago. We hit the Houthis. And yesterday, we killed
got Fuad Shukr.
And I would like to -- the appreciation of -- for all the defense forces in three different arenas we managed. We hit Nasrallah who was responsible for
the murder of kids and citizens He was responsible the attacks of Israel throughout the war in the last few months. The United States put $5 million
on his head. He was involved in the murder of American citizens and 85 French soldiers. The connection to the Iranian missile's arena.
In Majdal Shams I saw the sorrow of the families. I said to our Druze brothers and sisters, we are brothers, we have covenant. And this a tight
covenant, from grief to grief. The innocent people in addition to the suffer of the north citizens that are not able to live in their houses. We
are not going to be silent. We'll make everyone pay the price. Everyone that murder us, anyone that take our children. Citizens of Israel, these
are challenging days.
[13:15:00]
From Beirut there are threats. We are ready for any scenario. We are prepared. We are going to take high price -- going to exert high price from
each arena. Citizens of Israel, like the beginning of the war, the first few days of the war, I asked everyone to have patience for months.
There's no -- people said to me, finish the war. We exhausted what we could do and we can't win. I wasn't giving in for these voices. I'm not giving in
then and not giving in today. If I was giving in, we will not get rid of all this infrastructure of Hamas. We won't be part of the -- we won't be
take over the Philadelphi Axis. And we will not be close to the framework to bring the hostage deal and to return our hostages and to conquer the
aims of the war and make sure that Gaza is not going to be a threat on Israel and have quiet in the north and south.
All these achievements in the last few months we managed because we took brave decisions, and it wasn't easy. I had to make sure not to be under
pressure from many places. And we managed it because our warriors in the army and the defense forces and they are determined to win. And I back them
up with love that we believe in our way. We don't forget for a second the bereaved families, the hostage families that lost, that -- the wounded and
those who are trying to rehabilitate their life.
Together we will fight and with the help of God we will win.
GOLODRYGA: There, we've just been listening to the Israeli prime minister addressing the Israeli public there for a few minutes, taking credit for
and commending the Israeli forces for that strike that killed the senior Iranian official, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut yesterday -- excuse me, the senior
Hezbollah official in Beirut yesterday, notably not mentioning Ismail Haniyeh and his assassination in Tehran at all.
But stressing once again that this all a bigger part of what he says is his continued winning path against the fight against Hamas in Gaza. Going on to
say that the Israeli public should be prepared for any sort of response as is the IDF as well. But also noting that they are still working and hopeful
on finding a ceasefire agreement that would bring the hostages home.
Let's bring back Ronen Bergman to unpack all of this. There you heard a victory lap, a typical victory lap from the prime minister sort of taking
credit for yesterday and what we saw in that assassination attempt of the senior Hezbollah official, Fuad Shukr, and also avoiding any mention of the
killing there of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, but going on to once again highlight what he continues to say is Israel's ongoing victory and the path
towards victory in Gaza.
I'm wondering what you make of what we heard from him yesterday, at times just giving the public an update as to where things stand, also appears to
be part of a political speech wrapped into one.
BERGMAN: Yes. I think what we heard is the Benjamin Netanyahu hawkish stand to continue the war until what he calls the utmost or the perfect or
the full victory without defining what that victory means or addressing the questions of what is the day after? What is the Israeli policy towards
Gaza? Is Israel want to stay in Gaza? Is it the military control? Or is Israel trying to build the force that will control Gaza the day after?
[13:20:00]
In any case, I think this a -- this speech reinforces some echoes that we heard from Prime Minister Netanyahu upon his return from the U.S., where it
seems that he has taken few steps back on his willingness to sign the ceasefire hostage exchange deal.
When he -- because he spent so many words on his devotion and commitment to continue the war, he knows that commitment is a striking contradiction to
the ability to release all the hostages or to ability to even sign the first so-called humanitarian deal, because Hamas is not willing and he's
not giving up on his basic demand that any deal will have a commitment to have a full permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
When he is speaking about the Philadelphi rule, so the border between Gaza and Egypt, and it says Israel will stay there, this also -- those terms are
also deal breaker from the point of view of (INAUDIBLE). If -- I look at this from the point of view of the chances to see a coming deal, something
that he devoted only one sentence to, I think those are not good news. It's news about war not about ceasefire.
GOLODRYGA: And on that note, I've been exchanging messages with families of hostages who I've spent a lot of time with over the last 10 months. And
there is a lot of concern about what this means for the state of any negotiations and also raising questions, once again, in terms of whether or
not they can trust their government to prioritize the safety of their loved ones as opposed to continued hawkish positions like the ones that you've
just outlined.
You mentioned the prime minister's return and his increasingly hawkish stance since he's come back from the United States. Some things are clearly
were out of his control and that being specifically Hezbollah's attack in Northern Israel there where we saw 12 Jews children killed. Israel has
taken credit for that retaliatory strike yesterday.
I'm just curious specifically with regards to Ismail Haniyeh and his assassination in Iran, it's notable that this hasn't happened in Qatar.
They clearly have known his whereabouts for a long, long time. What do you make of the timing of his assassination? Again, Israel hasn't taken credit
for it, but for all intents and purposes, it is believed to be Israel that is behind this assassination. What do you make of the timing and the fact
that it took place in Iran, a guest of Iran's, as we should note as well?
BERGMAN: So, first of all, Israeli decision-making leaders as well as leaders of the intelligence community, the defense establishment have sworn
that anyone who took part in the attack -- the savage attack against Israel and Israelis on October 7th, and anyone who commanded or was involved in
the planning and execution of that will be prosecuted or killed.
Ismail Haniyeh, the -- now the former political bureau chief of Hamas is the most senior Hamas figure in the world outside of Gaza, and he was for
very long -- since October 7, basically, Israeli officials tells us, "The New York Times," all those people signed their death warrant, their death
sentence on October 7. And now, it's only a time of time and situation and military operational capabilities when they are killed.
So, in this sense, Israel sort of fulfilled its commitment, and it's continuing its sort of policy of being vague, not taking responsibility.
But if you go and read the tweets coming from Israeli ultra-right ministers, you'll see that this not saying, but with the -- we cannot,
basically claiming responsibility.
Now, it's in Iran, but as you said, it's not in Qatar. I assume if Israel was behind assassination, they didn't want to create friction with the
Qataris who could have severed, stopped the negotiation that they are mediating between Israel and Hamas. They didn't do it in the other city
that the late Haniyeh was visiting quite frequently, this Istanbul, not to have a fight with President Erdogan. They did it in Tehran.
The Iranians believe it was to humiliate them. I think that Israel, from their point of view, they feel that there's already a war with Tehran. So,
there's very little to lose.
[13:25:00]
Now, whether this calculus was right, what will be the Iranian reaction? I just remind ourselves and the audience at home that Israel predicted that
after it kills an Iranian high rank official in April in Damascus, when bombing the office where he was by the Iranian embassy, it's going to be a
very limited in scale respond.
Iran took a very different decision and bombed Israel with massive, massive throbs of missiles and -- cruise missiles and drones. So, I wouldn't bet on
necessarily the predictions of Israel that this -- the Iranian reaction would be between four and seven days. You know, we -- I think that those
predictions should be taken with some grain of salt and has the potential of deteriorating the region into an all-out war.
GOLODRYGA: What is the Iranian regime and the Supreme leader's priority now, is it a retaliatory strike to the killing of Haniyeh who was one of
the heads of Hamas, an organization that's viewed obviously as a proxy of Iran, but not nearly as crucial to Iran as Hezbollah or the assassination
yesterday of the Hezbollah official? Who is Iran prioritizing in terms of reprisal, retribution right now?
BERGMAN: Right. So, I think if it was only the assassination of Fuad Shukr, who is the senior Hezbollah military official who was in charge of
the strategic military buildup of the organization, who was one of the key persons to transform this guerrilla or terrorist organization into a
military efficient -- effective, then this would be left to the hands of Secretary General Nasrallah, how and when to strike and to retaliate.
Now, of course, Iran feels not as close to Hamas as they feel with the Shiites from Lebanon, from Hezbollah. But as my colleague at "The New York
Times," Farnaz Fassihi's reporting, the Iranians are feeling that this was done not just against Haniyeh, but also to humiliate them. This one of the
reasons that they are saying it was not done from ground operation. It was done by a missile, something coming from the outside.
And this why, I think, they believe that such a massive blow to their dignity, something that caused such an embarrassment, show their security
apparatus in its weakness point should be addressed with force. And this far from being over.
However, I do -- I still believe that all the signs -- except for Hamas, but all the signs and abilities (ph) still are keen not to deteriorate for
all-out war. It doesn't seem so, I know, but I think that at the end of the day, the fact that they have been fighting for so long and this did not
deteriorate is the fact that I maybe just a wishful thinking, but I believe, I hope that they will shape -- they will stay on the same course
and this will not be out of control and deteriorate to further escalation.
GOLODRYGA: Yes, Ronen Bergman, those are very hopeful, optimistic words coming from a man who knows this field.
BERGMAN: I want to --
GOLODRYGA: Yes, I -- and by the way, I appreciate that because it has been obviously a very tense 10 months. It's been a very tense past few days. And
it does appear that the line to reestablish deterrence continues to be pushed down further and further and further in this area. And obviously,
who knows what will happen in the days ahead? Even the prime minister, Netanyahu, himself saying Israel faces challenging days to come. Ronen
Bergman, thank you so much for your expertise, your analysis.
BERGMAN: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: And of course, we'll be in touch with you going forward.
Well, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. was neither aware nor involved in the killing of Hamas' leader on Iranian soil. Earlier
Wednesday, during a stop in Singapore, which is part of his six-country tour of Asia, Blinken made it clear that a ceasefire was still priority
number one.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: I'm not going to speculate on what impact any one event might have on that. I've learned over many years
never to really speculate about that because we simply don't know. What I do know is the enduring imperative of getting the ceasefire. And what I do
know is we'll continue to work at that every day.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[13:30:00]
GOLODRYGA: Let's take a look at the wider regional dynamics at play in the Middle East. Colin Clarke is director of research at the Soufan Group,
where he is an expert on terrorism, security, and geopolitics. He joins us now from New York. Colin Clarke, welcome back to the program.
You were just with us 24 hours ago. And things continue to develop there in the region and continue to escalate, the latest with the assassination of
Ismail Haniyeh. Notably, Israel has not taken credit for this assassination, but as you just heard in the conversation with Ronen
Bergman, this viewed as something that Iran can't avoid but retaliating against. And I'm curious your view on what a retaliation may look like
right now.
COLIN CLARKE, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT SOUFAN GROUP: Yes, thanks for having me. And as you mentioned, we were talking about 24 hours ago. And as I said
yesterday, I think we're on the precipice of some major escalation. I didn't think that the Israelis would then go and assassinate Ismail
Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas.
The fact that they did it in Tehran actually forces the Iranians hand, right? This puts them in the corner and forces them to conduct some kind of
a response probably through their proxies. And if we could see this coming from several members of the Axis of Resistance at once, it could be
Lebanese Hezbollah, it could be the Houthis in Yemen, it could be the Hashd al-Sha'bi or the Iraqi Shia militia groups. It could be several of them at
one time.
And I think this really going to be, you know, obviously cold water on any prospects for a ceasefire, any prospects for a hostage deal, at least in
the foreseeable future. I think that's totally scuttled and we're back into this rhythm of, you know, the war in Gaza and these other brush fires that
are taking place on the periphery.
GOLODRYGA: I noticed that you had retweeted, I believe, an article in "The Atlantic" by Graeme Wood who suggested that Ismail Haniyeh's assassination
sends a different type of message and that it may actually de-escalate the region. Your perspective on that view and the fact that now it does appear
all but Yahya Sinwar's decision-making and perhaps that of his brother, Mohammed Sinwar, both still believe to be in Gaza in terms of when a
ceasefire will be agreed upon.
CLARKE: So, I, you know, enjoyed reading the article. I know Graeme and I like him. I vehemently disagree with his take on this. That said, I still
think, you know, by retweeting it, it's interesting to share these things, to get different perspectives.
In fact, I concluded reading the article and thought, you know, I'm really at a kind of 180-degree polar opposite position. And I think the point of
these attacks was to sideline the negotiations. I think Netanyahu left the United States fully intent on taking, you know, advantage, if you will, of
the attack of the Golan Heights to carry out.
Look, these actions were well planned in advance. This wasn't something that was just cooked up overnight to go after the leader of a group like
Hamas, to know exactly where this individual is going to be and to kill him with limited collateral damage, that's something that's been planned for in
advance. These were plans likely taken off the shelf in response to the Golan Heights, or that was used as the kind of, you know, the sticking
point to respond to, but I don't think that we're anywhere close to a ceasefire.
And again, I think from Netanyahu and some of his far-right allies and the Israeli government, that's exactly the point, is to put those plans on the
sideline. That's going to really -- I think it's not going to land well with the hostage families in Israel, obviously, but it will help them
(INAUDIBLE).
GOLODRYGA: Right. And it isn't landing well with the hostage families in the sense that no one's crying over the death of Ismail Haniyeh at this
point, but in terms of the timing of it, as it appeared to be that they were moving closer to a ceasefire deal, this raising a lot of concerns.
On the flip side of this, as you know, say what you will, or people obviously have their views about what the priorities are of the prime
minister. This wasn't a decision that he would be able to make unilaterally, I would imagine, the targeting there of Haniyeh. So, you know
very well that many members of his government, especially the military leadership there has been in favor of some sort of ceasefire resolution
right now, a deal that would bring these hostages home.
So, given that, I'm just wondering what you make of the timing that this isn't something that Benjamin Netanyahu could have ordered on, on his own.
If his goal is perhaps deviating from that of others in his own administration.
CLARKE: Well, you're right. It's not something he would order on his own, although, he's the ultimate decision maker in that country. I think, you
know, a lot of the conversation today has been about, does killing Haniyeh cause internal fissures within Hamas?
[13:35:00]
I would look at the other side of the spectrum and say, what do these series of attacks, how did those play out within Israel? Do you then see
fissures between Netanyahu and some leading members of the IDF? Is there more daylight between what his plan is, or as Ronen alluded to, his lack of
a plan or a lack of strategy for the day after in Gaza, and what some of the actual warfighters want? Because, I think, probably to a person, nobody
would want to see a conflict in Gaza simultaneously with, you know, opening up the northern front against Hezbollah and then other members of the Axis
of Resistance joining in. You know, that really kind of sets the stage for a regional war, which we're in already, it just turns the temperature up
that much more
GOLODRYGA: And the U.S. obviously playing a critical role here as Israel's most significant ally and partner. It's interesting that yesterday it
appears -- well, we now know that the U.S. was given some sort of heads up before the targeting there of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. That does not appear to
have been the case with regards to Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. And I'm curious your view on that and the message that it sends that the United States may
have been blindsided by this particular action.
CLARKE: Well, I think it puts Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a very difficult position. I have to imagine that if the Israelis floated this
past, the United States, the U.S. would have had a very strong opinion on this and likely would have said, this not going to play well with the
broader framework of a potential ceasefire and hostage negotiation.
So, the U.S. likely caught off guard. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last. This kind of part of the tensions within the U.S.-Israeli
relationship. And now, we have to see, you know, what happens going forward, especially in an election year. This, you know, a pretty
precarious situation. Nobody from either party wants the United States to get dragged further into this conflict, but that's exactly what might
happen if the tit for tat continues to escalate.
GOLODRYGA: And we're already getting word that the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will be making an address on the occasion of Shukr's
funeral tomorrow. We obviously remember what happened in April following Israel's assassination of multiple IRGC members in Syria, that leading to
Iran responding with sending over 300 projectiles towards Israel, the United States, shooting a lot of them down, notably with some regional
partners as well.
Do you think that we could find ourselves in a similar position? The prime minister of Israel saying they're prepared for all scenarios, and this will
be difficult days to come. Will the United States step up as they had in April?
CLARKE: I think so. I think that's where we're headed. I think we're going to see additional U.S. military assets deployed to the region, a more kind
of muscular posture in preparation for something like that. Look, if I was Hassan Nasrallah, I wouldn't be giving -- I'd be worried about giving a
speech somewhere because he may be next at this rate. The Israelis -- you know, this seems like a series of coordinated actions and they may not be
done.
So, there's a lot that's going to likely happen in the next 24 to 48 hours and much of it out of the control of the United States.
GOLODRYGA: Yes. And some of the more far-right members of this Israeli coalition and government have said things along those same lines following
the attack in Northern Israel over the weekend that Hassan Nasrallah basically would be a target as well.
Colin Clarke we will continue to be monitoring things. Thank you so much. Who knows? Maybe tomorrow you'll be joining us again with the latest
developments. Appreciate the time.
CLARKE: Thanks, Bianna.
GOLODRYGA: Well, let's hone in on the situation playing out right now in Beirut. That is where there have been funerals today for two women and two
children and a woman. Lebanese media citing the health ministry saying that they died in an Israeli airstrike that killed a Hezbollah commander in the
city's suburbs Tuesday. Another 70 people reportedly injured in the blast.
The Lebanese caretaker foreign minister tells CNN the attack dealt a hammer blow to the prospects of peace.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABDALLAH BOU HABIB, LEBANESE CARETAKER FOREIGN MINISTER: What happened yesterday in Beirut, the killing of a very high military Hezbollah person
and in Tehran, Haniyeh, and Abbasani (ph) and in Baghdad also. This very dangerous. This says goodbye to the Biden plan or Biden proposal and the
U.N. Security Council resolution on peace -- ceasefire in Gaza. And what's happening is that, you know, the wave of war is coming rather than peace
coming to the region.
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GOLODRYGA: Nabih Bulos is Jordanian-American and has been reporting from Beirut for many years, which is where he joins us from now. Nabih Bulos,
thank you so much for joining us. Listen, it's timely to have you on given just that one targeted assassination in Beirut yesterday. Obviously, things
are much more exacerbated given the news overnight out of Iran and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
But with regards to Beirut, we now have confirmation from Hezbollah, and they are confirming what the IDF did yesterday, that a drone strike did
kill Fuad Shukr. Talk about the implications that has now for the region, for Lebanon in particular.
NABIH BULOS, MIDDLE EAST BUREAU CHIEF, THE LOS ANGELES TIMES: Well, it should be noted that we've been expecting some kind of attack in Lebanon
really for months now. And of course, what happened, you know, this past weekend with Majdal Shams attack, obviously, that upped the ante, but there
was an expectation of some sort of response that was going to be forthcoming.
Now, at the same time, it's worth noting that Shukr is a very significant figure within Hezbollah. I mean, he's considered to be -- while this
weren't the (INAUDIBLE) of the Israeli army, he's considered to be the right-hand man, but others will tell you within Hezbollah that he was
actually an important member of the Jihad Council, which is the supreme decision-making council of Hezbollah. And so, he's quite important in the
hierarchy of the organization. Is really considered one of its earlier founders and earlier, let's say, organizers.
Now, at the same time, in terms of retaliation, it's worth noting that Hezbollah has had high level commanders being assassinated throughout these
last 10 months. I mean, we saw one who was killed from the Redwan Special Forces. We've seen two division commanders actually being killed in the
last few months. And in all of those cases, there were indeed retaliations, but they were calibrated in the sense that they had struck, you know,
various targets within, let's say, Northern Israel, around Haifa, et cetera.
Now, at the same time, the difference here is that yesterday's attack, well, it targeted the Dahiya (ph), which is really Hezbollah's main
headquarters in the Lebanese capital, Beirut. And in the past, ayatollah (ph) has always said that the intention here is to create equivalence, so
that whatever pain Israel inflicts on Hezbollah and Lebanon, the same would be obviously sent back.
And in that context, he has said that if the Dahieh was struck, that he would then order the striking of Tel Aviv or Haifa. And so, the expectation
is that we'll see something like that, especially because, of course, Fuad Shukr was really a top flight commander.
GOLODRYGA: The IDF chief of staff and his foreign minister says that they will only stand down now if Hezbollah withdraws from the Israeli border.
So, basically going back to pre-October 7th stances and citing actually the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which was agreed to upon by both
sides after 2006 and the war between the two. Do you think that there's a likelihood of that happening at this point?
BULOS: Well, I should clarify that the status quo ante was actually different in the sense that you had, let's say, an uneasy and quite fragile
piece that it nevertheless held for about 16 years. So, the fact of the matter is that there was Hezbollah operating in South Lebanon, and just as
there was also -- there were also Israeli army units in North Israel and the posture on both sides was quite tense. But at the same time, we didn't
really see the active hostilities that we are seeing now. That really started on October 8th.
And so -- I mean, the fact of the matter is, if the expectation is that we would go back to October 7th, which is say the status quo ante, then I
think that is something that both sides would be happy to consider once there is a ceasefire in Gaza, because Hezbollah has been very clear in the
sense that they have tied the fate of what they're doing, you know, at the southern border with what happens in Gaza.
Now, at the same time, of course, we are at the same time seeing now an escalation in this tit for tat exchanges. And now, the demands of Israel
have increased to say, pushing back Hezbollah behind the Litani River. That -- yes, you're right. It is within the 1701 spirit, but at the same time,
it would be very, very difficult to implement. Indeed, I really don't see how it can be implemented.
GOLODRYGA: Yes, and we've seen now tens of thousands of residents displaced on both sides since October 7th in light of that.
BULOS: Indeed.
GOLODRYGA: I'm curious to get your views on what you're going to be looking for tomorrow as we hear from Hassan Nasrallah, who's expected to
make a statement following Shukr's funeral.
BULOS: Of course this will be a big ceremony in the Dahieh. We have seen previous funeral ceremonies being held there, and the rallying power of
Hezbollah is truly second to none in this regard. It will be, of course, a big crowd. And we are, at the same time, expecting some kind of proper
response from Hezbollah because, as I said before, the key point here is that Beirut was targeted and the Dahieh was targeted.
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And that really is an escalation, and it really is an escalation and there is a line that was -- that hasn't been passing quite some time.
GOLODRYGA: Nabih Bulos, thank you so much for your time and your perspective of joining us from Beirut. Appreciate it.
BULOS: Thank you very much for having me.
GOLODRYGA: Well, as we said, Israel has neither confirmed nor denied being behind the Haniyeh assassination. Let's get more now on the mood within the
country. Clarissa Ward is following the developments from inside Israel and joins us now live from Tel Aviv.
Clarissa, we heard from Prime Minister Netanyahu earlier, notably not mentioning the death of Ismail Haniyeh, but also noting that these will be
tough, difficult days ahead for the Israelis as they are expecting any sort of response either from Hezbollah or Iran or perhaps other proxies. What is
the mood like in the country right now?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we just arrived this afternoon, and I have to say, Bianna, that the mood is
relatively calm. People are going about their daily lives. The government has not told them to change any of their daily routines. But underpinning
that, I would say there is anxiety as people come to terms with the almost certain reality that there will be some kind of a retaliation for these two
major assassinations.
I spoke with one reservist brigadier general, Assaf Orion, who talked about particularly what a retaliation from Hezbollah might look like, how
different that would be from the sort of rocket fire that we have seen in the south coming from Gaza. He talked about the amount of weapons, the type
of weapons, the precision of those weapons, the distance that those weapons can go to. He talked about the possibility of attacks in Tel Aviv and
Haifa, on Ben Gurion Airport. So, there is definitely a sense of awareness that very soon there could be major disruptions to daily life here.
And everybody, I think, also understands that the entire region really now, Bianna, is on a knife edge. Because when you get to this stage of
escalation, all it takes is for one miscalculation, one thing to go wrong before you really see a massive all-out regional conflagration. And
obviously, that is something that we have been discussing, you and I even on this show many times over the past nearly 10 months.
But in this moment, it really feels closer than ever, particularly with this assassination of Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, which, as
you mentioned, the Israelis have not publicly claimed responsibility for. And which really is an open question as to how Iran will respond. They have
certainly been very clear that they will do.
The timing, still something of a question. And the region bracing itself for what comes next, Bianna.
GOLODRYGA: Clarissa Ward reporting to us live from Tel Aviv. Please keep us posted on any developments you hear on your end. As you note, the
Israeli army raised its alert levels Tuesday night in possibility for a military retaliation by Hezbollah, but the home front command itself has
refrained from advising any further cautionary steps for its citizens.
For more on this now and the implications for Israel, I'm joined by Tamir Hayman, who is a former IDF intelligence chief and now head of Israel's
Institute for National Security Studies. He joins me now live from Tel Aviv.
Thank you so much for joining us, Tamir. And you of all people know the implications involved in the planning and the process of green lighting
certain operations, specifically these targeted assassinations. Israel has taken credit for the assassination of the top Hezbollah official yesterday
in Beirut. We haven't heard any credit taken for the murder assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, but I'm curious from your perspective, the implications
now of what you expect to see in terms of a response from Iran or any of its multiple proxies.
TAMIR HAYMAN, FORMER IDF INTELLIGENCE CHIEF: Well -- and thank you for having me. We are -- we should expect retaliation from the three different
fronts. First of all, from Hamas, that his top leader was assassinated. They're still not really sure by whom. But it was very accurate one. I
imagine done by explosive device and not missiles. And it is important in terms of when they are accomplished -- when they are designing the
retaliation.
Second of all, from Iran, because they are -- they hosted the -- Ismail Haniyeh and they -- there is some form of humiliation that the fact that it
was in their soil. And third of all, from Hezbollah, because the second in command of Hezbollah, Haj Mohsen, as he's called, is very important, he's
the top military leader in Hezbollah.
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As for the response from Hamas, I imagine nothing that we have never seen so far. It seems like they've exhausted their capabilities to make more
harm than they did. As for Iran, there are two main options. One is to retaliate from the proxies. And the second is to retaliate like they did in
April 14 directly from Iran's soil. Both cases are things that we have seen and achieved defending Israel pretty good so far. We had great cooperation
with United States backing, deterring, and arranging this international coalition.
So, this not the most two important elements. The big question right now is regarding Hezbollah. Because Hezbollah can do either some form of a minor
or a retaliation, something that is border, something controlled that's not really escalate to a full-scale war or, and it is a low probability
scenario right now, to stop the sequence of events of those strikings by launching a full-scale assault on Israel, which is -- which immediately
spills the region to a full regional war.
My assessment that they will prefer the more minor kind of response that decorated the fact that we have maybe crossed the red line, but still
controlling the levels of the flame and trying to reduce the damage to Israel in order not to provoke Israel to retaliate in a much higher scale,
which will escalate to a full-scale was.
GOLODRYGA: Interesting. So, you're more focused and perhaps worried about what a response from Hezbollah could look like in the days ahead versus
Iran and the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh?
HAYMAN: Yes, of course, because the Iran -- the tactical and operation operational capabilities of Hezbollah and their distance from Israel main
vulnerable, heavy density cities are more efficient in terms of using the more advanced weaponry.
Haj Mohsen, the one that we have assassinated yesterday, was responsible on what they call the strategic capabilities of Hezbollah. He was the one that
directly responsible on the slaughter and the -- of the murder of those 12 children in that sports stadium in Saturday. He is the one that responsible
of killing 142 American soldiers. He is a very rough and tough terrorist who very professionally accumulated enormous numbers of ammunitions, heavy
rockets, accurate missiles that can really disrupt dramatically the routine of Israel.
Israel can defend itself, and it would probably retaliate in a manner that will harm Hezbollah dramatically, and maybe even unintentionally the State
of Lebanon, because Hezbollah is embedded in the infrastructure of Lebanon as a state.
GOLODRYGA: Right.
HAYMAN: So, the retaliation will be severe. But it is a -- it's a potential.
GOLODRYGA: We know thus far three commanders of Hezbollah central units have been killed, I believe, in this current conflict. Nearly 400 Hezbollah
fighters have been killed, a few dozen IDF soldiers have been killed as well.
As it relates to the war in Gaza, what are your views on whether or not this destabilizes any potential for a ceasefire deal, for the hostages to
come home? We know early on that Yahya Sinwar had been hoping that Hezbollah would play a bigger role in this fight. Thus far, yes, they have
been launching missiles into Israel since October 7th, but they haven't increased into a full on open second front with Israel.
Do you think this a calculation now that Sinwar will be making as to whether or not he will be willing to accept the deal to see what, in fact,
Hezbollah is willing to do?
HAYMAN: That's a great question. That's the most important case. The question right now and the situation right now is on the verge of a tipping
point, possible tipping point. Because, right now, Israel is achieving its objectives of the war, and it can bring it to a situation with where it can
compromise and go to a hostage deal as presented three and a half weeks ago. And basically, Hamas accepted it. But we have some details to
finalize.
If we succeed on achieving a hostage deal, that will ensure the full accomplishment of all the targets of the war. But more importantly, in
strategic aspects, it will cut the connection between the two fronts, the connections that Hezbollah wanted to create.
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That is, we will -- we can achieve a ceasefire in the south, bringing back our hostages and focus our attention on reestablishing some form of
security regime in the north based on 1701, that is the withdrawal of Hezbollah north to Litani River, the more overt capabilities of Hezbollah.
I think it is possible because when we focus our attention on only one front, given -- showing our capabilities, it may drive them to a more
flexible and suitable situation.
GOLODRYGA: Well, we will be watching closely, Tamir Hayman. Every day we continue to see things continue to escalate in the region and setting a new
deterrence. It seemed to be both the goals of all parties involved here. But again, as we saw tragically on Saturday, a miscalculation is what most
are worried about right now. And reminding our viewers that Hezbollah now confirming what the IDF confirmed yesterday, and that is the death of the
senior commander, Fuad Shukr, who is believed to be behind the murder of those 12 Druze children in Northern Israel, and as Tamir Hayman noted, over
a hundred U.S. servicemen as well.
We want to thank all of our guests this hour, Tamir Hayman in Tel Aviv. Thank him for his perspectives there and all of our guests. Of course, this
going to be a very fluid developing story. We will continue to monitor for you all. Please continue to watch CNN.
In the meantime, thank you so much for joining us this hour, and goodbye from New York.
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