Return to Transcripts main page
Amanpour
Interview with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar; Interview with White House Council of Economic Advisers Former Chairman Jason Furman; Interview with Copper Cow Coffee Founder Debbie Wei Mullin; Interview with M.M. LaFleur Founder and CEO Sarah LaFleur. Aired 1-2p ET
Aired March 09, 2026 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[13:00:00]
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: Hello everyone, and welcome to "Amanpour." Here's what's coming up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GIDEON SA'AR, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER: It is clear that the hardliners are still calling the shots there in Tehran.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Iran names its next leader, the hardline son of the late Ayatollah Khamenei. The U.S. calls him an unacceptable choice. And Israel
promises to target any successor picked by the regime. I ask Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar about Israel's ongoing attacks on Iran and
where this conflict goes next.
Then, oil prices surge as a drawn-out war in the Middle East looks ever more likely. Jason Furman, chair of the White House Council of Economic
Advisers under President Obama, joins me.
Also, ahead --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DEBBIE WEI MULLIN, FOUNDER, COPPER COW COFFEE: Oftentimes, you know, you have product on the water, and you're not -- you have no idea how much it's
going to cost when it gets here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: -- entrepreneurs Debbie Wei Mullin and Sarah LaFleur tell Michel Martin about how Trump's tariff whiplash is changing the calculus
for small business in America, and could risk squeezing them out entirely.
Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York, sitting in for Christiane Amanpour.
Top Iranian clerics have picked Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's next supreme leader. He is the son of slain leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is
known for sharing his father's hardline stance. It's a choice that both the U.S. and Israel have said they won't accept.
Now, the announcement comes as Israel is launching wide-scale attacks on central Iran and Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon. These were the
apocalyptic scenes in Tehran over the weekend after Israel targeted oil facilities in the capital.
The strikes ignited massive fires, which spread toxic fumes across the city. And on Sunday, oil literally rained down on people and buildings
there. Iran, meantime, is continuing to retaliate, launching aerial attacks on multiple Gulf nations as well as on Israel.
Gideon Sa'ar is Israel's foreign minister, and he joined me earlier to react to all of these latest developments.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GOLODRYGA: Mr. Foreign Minister, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. For the second day in a row, an Iranian ballistic missile
has struck inside Israel, bringing the total killed in the country to 11. But, overall, Israel is seeing fewer missiles per salvo compared to the
number that Israel had seen in the 12-day war last summer.
Is it Israel's assessment that Iran's arsenal of missiles and missile launchers has been severely degraded and thus the reason for the fewer
missiles, or is there concern that perhaps Iran is hoping to drag this war out longer for a war of attrition and holding back the number of missiles
that they are sending and lobbing at Israel?
GIDEON SA'AR, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER: First of all, unfortunately, we have more casualties, because we had two casualties this morning. Secondly,
there is no doubt that the ability of the Iranians to launch on Israel, and, generally speaking, also on its neighbors decreased because we hunt so
many of the launchers and did some other things, that it's really going down.
From our point of view, we have another challenge in terms of missiles. That's the Hezbollah from Lebanon that's launching missiles as well. But,
altogether, of course, they will calculate the numbers of missiles they are throwing on us and on our neighbors. But it's no doubt that there is a
decrease in their abilities to do so.
GOLODRYGA: I want to get to your fight with Hezbollah to your north in just a moment. But to stick with this point, over the weekend, the IDF
chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, told Israelis and the Israeli public to be patient and to be prepared for the war to, quote, "take a long time." How
long is a long time?
[13:05:00]
SA'AR: If you want to be successful, you are simply not telling the other side how much time you are ready to fight. Basically, we have an objective,
and we have enough patience and enough ammunition in order to do so. So, it is very important to work according to the plan we have with our American
allies, and I'm sure that we will be successful. We are already successful.
We are working a very -- against a very mad regime. Today, they again target Turkey. They target basically all U.S. allies in the Middle East.
And think what they would have done if they would have nuclear umbrella. This is what they are doing when they are in inferiority, which is clear,
but think what they would have done if they had nuclear weapons.
They are already using these cluster warheads. It is very important to understand that it is not only they target civilians, but they use the way
to maximize civilian casualties. And this is, of course, a war crime.
GOLODRYGA: And yet the regime in Iran, though, perhaps more fragile, still holds. In fact, Iran's Assembly of Experts just named Mojtaba Khamenei to
succeed his assassinated father. You have made it clear that the ultimate goal is regime collapse. So, is Mojtaba Khamenei now a target for Israel?
SA'AR: Well, you will have to wait and see. But it is clear that he continue the very extremist and mad policies of his father. He's a hard-
liner. He's anti-American. He's anti-Western. And you can see already the cracks inside this regime. And I will give you one example that demonstrate
it, that, during last weekend, we had heard the Iranian president, Pezeshkian, speaking about that, that they are apologized in front of their
neighbors and they will not attack them again if they will not be attacked from these states.
But, eventually, you heard the speaker of their parliament saying, no, we will continue to attack. And on the ground, they continue to attack their
neighboring states.
GOLODRYGA: Yes.
SA'AR: So, you can conclude, first, you have cracks which are already open. And, second, it is clear that the hard-liners are still calling the
shots there in Tehran. And, frankly, with these people, you cannot do anything serious if you want to solve conflict, as we saw in all the
efforts that the U.S. had done before June and before this attack during the time of Khamenei.
GOLODRYGA: Though we do know that President Pezeshkian didn't wield much power even prior to these strikes beginning last week. But your point is
noted. I do want to ask you about a point that you have made yourself, and that is that "Iranians cannot topple the regime without some kind of help
from the outside." That was your quote.
Yet U.S. intelligence predicts that even a mass military assault from the skies won't crumble this regime. So, what does Israeli intelligence know
that perhaps the U.S. doesn't?
SA'AR: You know, predictions about this kind of things never works. But I said this regime could -- can change during the campaign, but it -- we can
see that also after the campaign, as much as I think that what we had saw on the streets of Iran during December, during January was a result of our
previous attacks on June. And that cracked the image of power of this regime internally and externally.
So, this is very important to give the people of Iran the conditions to act. And you do that by systematically decreasing the powers of the regime,
which is a very repressive regime, attacking Revolutionary Guards, attacking Basij, attacking all their repressive apparatus. This is what we
do.
GOLODRYGA: Well --
SA'AR: And I think that eventually we saw that the people of Iran want to fight for their freedom to regain their freedom. And they paid heavy prices
for that. But no one was there. It is clear they couldn't do that alone.
GOLODRYGA: Does --
SA'AR: I think that this operation can create the conditions for that. But, at the end of the day, as you quoted, it can't be done without the
Iranian people themselves.
[13:10:00]
GOLODRYGA: And does that include attacking Iranian fuel depots? Because, as you know, Axios here and Barak Ravid is reporting that, after Israel
struck 30 Iranian fuel depots this weekend, it went beyond what Washington had expected, sparking perhaps the first rift, at least publicly, between
these two allies.
An Israeli official says that the U.S. reaction was literally, quote, "WTF" and that a Trump adviser says the president didn't like the attack because
it spooked oil markets, which we have seen skyrocket in the last 48 hours alone. Are you needlessly fracturing the most important relationship that
you need and depend upon for this war?
SA'AR: We have a very good coordination with our friends from the American administration, both in the political and military level, and we are not
handling that in the media. What I can say on the thing itself is, we struck several fuel storage complexes used by the Iranian military forces.
So, it was -- the purpose of these strikes was to hurt Iranian military activity. It is in war it happened.
And whenever we should say, we say between us and our friends from the American administration. It's a very tight, close coordination and
cooperation.
GOLODRYGA: Did you hear concern from the Americans --
SA'AR: And by the way, I want to emphasize the fact that the war of Iran, you can see it when they also target states which are not our friends, like
Turkey or Qatar. From Iranian perspective, it's a war against all American allies in this region, because the U.S. president had really done here
something which is very great. He decided to act. We had a lot of talks in the past with regard to proliferation of nuclear weapons.
I can remind you that, during the '90s, President Clinton warned North Korea not to do it, but they had done it, because, eventually, there was no
one to back words with deeds. What President Trump had done here is great from an historical point of view and also from the point of view of
American leadership in the world.
GOLODRYGA: Is there concern, though, with actions like these? I know Israel says that it struck these fuel depots because they were being used
by the IRGC. Is there concern, though, given the images that we have seen over the skies of Tehran, even by some of this reporting from Axios that
the White House did not expect this type of strike to this degree and extent, is there concern that, in your attempt to help the Iranian people,
it could in fact backfire and turn them against Israel and the United States and their effort to topple the regime?
SA'AR: I don't think so. I think we know what we do. I think we are coordinated with the United States, which is our greatest ally and a
partner to this important war by the decision, the courageous decision of President Trump.
And we will act with wisdom and we will act in order to, among other things, which I mentioned, with regard to the nuclear program, ballistic
missiles program, and other things, we will create the best conditions for the Iranian people to regain their freedom. But, eventually, it will be
dependent on them. This is something that must be clear as well.
GOLODRYGA: U.S. intelligence says Iran can still access highly enriched uranium at Isfahan. There are reports that the U.S. is even considering
special ground forces to seize that enriched uranium, perhaps even alongside Israeli ground forces. Is that an option?
SA'AR: What I would say, Bianna, that it is extremely not wise during war to hint or to say what operational moves you are going to do. I won't speak
about these issues. I will only say we are decisive to achieve our objectives. And, from my impression, the American administration is not
less decisive than us.
GOLODRYGA: Let me turn now to the fight against Hezbollah, which has entered this war as well by launching strikes initially at Israel, and now
Israel then responding. The death toll is in the hundreds now.
[13:15:00]
Your North Command says that Hezbollah is fighting completely independently of Tehran. If degrading Iran to this point has not deterred Hezbollah, what
is your actual exit strategy in Lebanon? Does that include sending a massive amount of ground forces into Lebanon?
SA'AR: Again, first of all, the coordination, the operational coordination between Iran and Hezbollah is less important than the fact that they were
joining this war by an Iranian demand, and it only demonstrates that they are not loyal to Lebanon. They are working against the will of the Lebanese
people. They are working against the will of the Lebanese government. And, therefore, it is clear we will act. We will act strongly as much as we do.
We will do what we have to do.
But we will not lose the understanding that our main objectives are in Iran. And this is very important because, in wars, you always have main
front and secondary efforts. Our main front will continue to be Iran. But I can assure you that Hezbollah capabilities will be -- they were already
degraded during the war on 2024, but they were dramatically -- we will do that in a more dramatic way during the next days.
And this is very important to the security of our nation, but it is not less important to the Lebanon's future, because, at the end of the day, if
Lebanon will not dismantle the Hezbollah, it will remain under a de facto Iranian occupation.
They are not free, they are not sovereign when Hezbollah, by instructions from Tehran, can do whatever they want to do there. And they cannot enforce
discipline. So, again, the government of Lebanon spoke about that, that they want to dismantle the Hezbollah. It was their decision, but they
didn't do that eventually.
GOLODRYGA: Yes.
SA'AR: I hope that we will degrade the capabilities and the forces of Hezbollah to the extent that they will be able to do that, because it's
important for our security. It's also important for Lebanon's future.
GOLODRYGA: So, is one of Israel's top objectives now in Lebanon the assassination, the elimination of Mojtaba Khamenei?
SA'AR: As I said previously, we never in a war declare what will be our operational steps or actions. For that kind of things, you will await --
you will have to wait and see.
GOLODRYGA: OK, Mr. Foreign Minister, I know you are tight for time. If I could just get one more very important question in here, because the
American public is very concerned about what we're seeing in terms of gas prices going up, oil prices going up, U.S. service members being killed.
You had your chief of staff tell the Israeli public that this war will be a long war, President Trump then telling the American public that it will end
both when he and Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to it on their own terms.
What does that timeline look like? And is Israel prepared for the United States to perhaps pull out of this war sooner than Israel would like?
SA'AR: We will coordinate with the U.S., and we will communicate with the U.S. not through the media. We had a mutual decision. We thought it is
important, it is historic. And I just want to say one thing. See what Iran is doing now to all its neighbors in the Gulf, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Turkey,
UAE, not only to Israel. Imagine what they would have done if they eventually got nuclear weapons.
So, this is the kind of regime we are speaking about. It's the most extremist regime on Earth. And it is to prevent from this kind of regime to
have the means to totally change the reality, not only in the Middle East, but far beyond that. They always work against American interests. And,
right now, when they are attacking all these states, they are attacking American interests.
So, I believe it was the right thing to do. When you go to a war, you always have prices. There are no free lunches. And it's tough to be in war.
But, sometimes, it's more dangerous not to act than to act.
[13:20:00]
And I'm sure that, in this case, we both had the right decisions to act. And I praise both leaders, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu,
for leading and bringing these tough decisions and also taking both nations to do what they have to do now in Iran.
GOLODRYGA: Mr. Foreign Minister, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it today.
SA'AR: Thank you so much.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GOLODRYGA: Our correspondent Fred Pleitgen is reporting on the ground in Tehran and spoke exclusively to Kamal Kharazi, the foreign policy adviser
to the supreme leader. Fred and his team are operating in Iran with the permission of the Iranian government but maintain full editorial control
over their reporting.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Iran has a new supreme leader. What does that mean for your military effort and the
confrontation with the United States and Israel?
KAMAL KHARAZI, FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER TO IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER: That means the system is quite functioning.
PLEITGEN: So, the United States says it's drastically degraded the Iranian military, the capabilities as far as missiles is concerned, drones is
concerned. How much longer can you do this?
KHARAZI: That is one of the false narratives that the United States government is producing. Iranian military is quite strong, as you see,
because they have the motivation, they have the arms that they need, which are produced in Iran. As a matter of fact, we are not dependent on any
other country for weapons and arms.
PLEITGEN: So, your side is ready for a long war if the United States and Israel choose that. Do you consider this an existential threat to the
Islamic Republic?
KHARAZI: It is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic and therefore we have to stay with full might as we are doing now.
PLEITGEN: Is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire with the United States at this point in time and with Israel?
KHARAZI: I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because Donald Trump has been deceiving others and not keeping with his promises. And we
experienced this in two times of negotiations that while we were engaged in negotiation, they struck us.
PLEITGEN: How does all of this end then? If you say right now there's no room for negotiation, President Trump says he wants complete surrender.
What does that lead to?
KHARAZI: There's no room unless the economic pressure would be built up to the extent that other countries would intervene to guarantee this
termination of aggression of Americans and Israelis against Iran.
PLEITGEN: Finally, what is your message to President Trump as we sit here, as the war is going on?
KHARAZI: That means that what is important for us is the end of this game and we are ready to continue that game.
PLEITGEN: The end of this game, you mean how this war will end? Is --
KHARAZI: Yes. At the end of the game would be the time that Americans and Israelis would come to this understanding that this strategy is not
working. And they have to stop their aggressions against Iranians.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Fred Pleitgen with that exclusive interview from Tehran. Well, do stay with CNN, we'll be right back with more after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[13:25:00]
GOLODRYGA: Oil prices are surging to four-year highs as investors react to the prospect of a protracted war in the Middle East. The uncertainty is
already hitting consumers with gas prices up 16 percent from last week. President Trump says it's a very small price to pay, but not everyone
agrees. The IMF chief is warning policymakers to prepare for the unthinkable. And the G7 met to discuss releasing emergency oil reserves,
although France said, quote, "we're not there yet."
Jason Furman was economic adviser to President Obama and chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He joins me now from Cambridge,
Massachusetts. Jason, it's good to see you. So, as we noted, U.S. oil prices skyrocketed to over one hundred dollars a barrel at their highest
price since Russia's larger scale invasion of Ukraine over four years ago. Regular gasoline across the United States cost forty-six cents more a
gallon than it did a week ago, according to AAA.
Given the amount of global oil that is readily available for the marketplace, are you surprised at the rapid spike that we've seen in just
the last 10 days alone?
JASON FURMAN, FORMER CHAIRMAN, WHITE HOUSE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS: I'm not that surprised by it. The -- closing the Strait of Hormuz has been
the event people have been talking about and speculating about for decades. It's finally here. Yes, the world is making a lot of other oil. Part of why
those prices go up now is precautionary. It's basically a little bit of extra setting aside reserves now in case this disruption lasts longer. And
if it doesn't, prices will come back down again.
GOLODRYGA: So, what does a sustained energy shock of this magnitude look like? Here we are 10 days in. Economists like yourself say this is nothing
to panic about yet. But when does that turn into panic?
FURMAN: Look, for the U.S. economy as a whole, we're somewhat hedged. We're a small net oil exporter. We produce a lot of oil here. The problem
is consumers are not hedged. Unless you happen to be a consumer who also owns an oil company, what you're facing are just the higher prices at the
pump and you're not benefiting from the other side of the equation. So, it's a really unequal impact that this is having on the U.S. economy and
American families.
GOLODRYGA: Explain how that works, because for many Americans, especially older Americans, are having a bit of deja vu if you go back to the conflict
in the Middle East from the late '70s to the early '90s and even 2003 and the war in Iraq where we saw oil prices and gas prices then follow in
lockstep by skyrocketing. Here at the same time, they're hearing that the United States is the world's largest oil producer at this point, that
there's plenty of oil on the market here. We're getting reassurance from the energy secretary, the president on down.
So, explain why, because oil is fungible. This is still something that they're going to have to deal with, at least in the short-term, when they
go fill up their cars.
FURMAN: Yes, whether your country is a net oil exporter like the United States is or Canada is in a really big way, or it's a net oil importer, the
price is still set on a global market. If American businesses can sell their oil for more money in another country, they're going to send it there
rather than here. So, we are subject to the exact same price fluctuations.
Now, we probably won't have anything like the 1979 shortages. This isn't going to be like odd numbered license plates get gas one day, even
numbered, get them the next day. But there's nothing American consumers can do to hide if the global price of oil goes up as it has.
GOLODRYGA: I mentioned Energy Secretary Chris Wright tried to alleviate some of these concerns over the weekend. Here's what he told our Jake
Tapper on Sunday on State of the Union.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS WRIGHT, U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY: Gasoline today, still $1.50 a gallon cheaper than it was in the middle of the Biden administration. But you're
right. We want it back below $3 a gallon, and it will be again before too long.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, what do you mean by too long? How much longer?
WRIGHT: Look, you never know exactly the time frame of this, but in the worst case, this is a week's. This is not a month's thing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Do you agree with that, Jason? Do you take it at face value? And we do know that historically, while gas and oil prices can skyrocket
quickly, they don't necessarily come down at that same pace.
FURMAN: Yes, that's right. And, you know, the gasoline prices he was referring to during the Biden administration is after Russia invaded
Ukraine. That also caused global oil prices to increase.
[13:30:00]
The amount of disruption here is larger than it was as a result of that conflict. And the open question, which no one knows the answer to, is how
long will it last? The fact is, there's not very much a U.S. Energy Secretary can do right now to bring down oil prices. It would require, I'm
not an expert in this, but a more coherent set of war objectives on behalf of the people who are organizing what is going on in the Middle East.
There's not much you can do to patch up after that.
GOLODRYGA: And as we heard last week from President Trump, we are expected to hear from him later tonight, but as of last week, when asked if he was
prepared to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, he said no. We heard the same now from G7 leaders as well.
When would be an appropriate time to do that, Jason? Because President Biden did it under circumstances that were not as extreme as the United
States potentially entering a war.
FURMAN: Yes. I actually think President Biden might've been wrong to do that, and it might've been in part because it was an election year that he
was thinking about it, a midterm election year. Of course, this is also --
GOLODRYGA: This is also, right.
FURMAN: -- a midterm election year. Exactly. So, I'm a little bit surprised that the administration isn't more forward-looking and
enthusiastic about it. I would want to see a little bit more of a sustained price above $100 a barrel, rather than just flirting with that number and
the futures markets are still projecting that price would come down. So, a little bit more expectation of a sustained higher price than we have right
now, but then at that point, it absolutely would be appropriate to use it to stabilize the price.
GOLODRYGA: Can you respond to what President Trump posted on Truth Social last night when he wrote, short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly
when the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is over is a very small price to pay for USA and world safety and peace. Only fools would think
differently.
As a former adviser to a president, is that the type of language or mentality that you would suggest that he relayed to the American public?
FURMAN: I mean, there was a piece of it that was honest, which is he is admitting that there are higher gasoline prices right now because of his
foreign policy choices. That's screamingly obvious, but somebody should get a little bit of credit for admitting the obvious.
The falling rapidly, to me, is not what I would forecast happening. Even if oil prices fall rapidly, the gasoline in some sense hasn't fully caught up
with the oil price increase we've seen. And if you look at futures markets, they're pricing in an oil price increase even a year from now as a result
of this, consistent with gasoline being maybe 40, 50 cents a gallon, more expensive than it would have been absent this, and that's basically
assuming everything goes right over the next year.
GOLODRYGA: As I noted in the introduction, the IMF managing director warned that a prolonged conflict could drive up global inflation and advise
policymakers to quote, "think of the unthinkable and prepare for it." How do governments prepare for the unthinkable? You've been in that very
situation.
FURMAN: Yes. I mean, normally the inflation due to an oil shock is something that a central bank, the policymakers should actually ignore.
They should look through it because there's not a lot economic policymakers can do. You don't want to raise interest rates in order to bring down oil
inflation. It's not the cause of that inflation. It's not the way to bring it down.
Right now, if you're sitting at the Fed, though, you're nervous. Inflation's been above target for five years now. What if people get used
to that? What if their expectations change? What if it becomes self- fulfilling? So, I think for the Fed, this is actually going to make it harder for them to cut interest rates and give the economy the help it
needs because we came into this with inflation already being too high.
GOLODRYGA: OK. But at the same time, Jason, we got a weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday. The U.S. economy actually lost 92,000 jobs. The
unemployment rate ticked up slightly. From that perspective alone, how would you rate the health of the U.S. economy, especially as the president
continues to pressure the Fed chief, the outgoing, and then the future incoming, that he wants low rates?
FURMAN: Yes. It's a really challenging situation because you see these signs of weakening in the job market and you see inflation. One of those
says you should cut rates. The other says you should raise rates. The Fed, I think, is doing the right thing by standing firm and staying pat and not
making any changes right now.
Of course, President Trump has his own views on the question and he wants to make them known on Truth Social. That doesn't bother me that much. When
he tries to fire or investigate prosecuting people to get his way, that's a much, much bigger and more damaging thing for the U.S. economy.
GOLODRYGA: I think that case is still ongoing. I'm not sure it's been dropped thus far, though there has been a lot of pressure even from members
of the president's own party, even threatening that they won't confirm Kevin Warsh unless he drops that investigation.
[13:35:00]
Sticking with the health of the U.S. economy right now, you have consistently called the labor slowdown a normalization. But what happens to
you when you factor in war and then consumer sentiment when they are perhaps worried about a slowdown and perhaps more job losses and that
coupled with rising gas prices when you're looking at their behavior over the next few months?
FURMAN: Yes. That's a big wild card. Last year, consumer sentiment measures as measured by the University of Michigan was below what it was
during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. It was extraordinary. It's come up a little bit since then, but I'm sure when we see the numbers
for March, it's going to be even lower than it was last year. So, consumers are rock bottom, incredibly sour.
Now, so far, that's what they tell pollsters, but then they go out and spend money and keep the economy going. The question is, how long can that
last? If you look at the 1990 Gulf War, we had a big recession, not a big recession, we had a recession in 1991 that in part was caused by consumers
just being nervous about what was going on in the Middle East, what was going on with oil.
Oil matters a little bit less to our economy now, but psychology, does that still matter? We're going to find out.
GOLODRYGA: Let's talk about something else that you're interested in. Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations" was published 250 years ago this month, a
blueprint for a free market economy. The anniversary comes as the U.S. government has become more involved in technology and media, other sectors
of the economy, and this is a Republican administration as well. How is Smith's messaging relevant today, some 250 years later?
FURMAN: Yes. I have a piece in the New York Times today about this. As an economist, this is the most exciting, maybe even 250th anniversary that's
happening this year. What Adam Smith did was he said the economy should be about people. It should benefit people. That sounds really obvious, but at
the time, people were trying to organize the economy to benefit kings.
And even now, some economic policy is about benefiting maybe the government, maybe big corporations, maybe other organizations. But if you
put people at the center, they can do amazing things and often do amazing things without a whole lot of top-down coordination. That was the lesson of
Smith. I think it is just as relevant today as ever.
GOLODRYGA: It is a really interesting and thoughtful piece to read. I encourage everyone to read it at the New York Times. Jason Furman, great to
see you excited about that as well as ever an economist. Thank you so much. Good to see you.
FURMAN: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: And we'll be right back after this short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GOLODRYGA: Now, up to $175 billion of refunds could be given back to businesses that paid import taxes after the Supreme Court ruled President
Trump's global tariffs illegal last month. But for many small American companies, the damage has been done. Some owners are doubting whether they
can really claim their money back. Founder of Copper Cow Coffee Debbie Wei Mullin, and CEO of M.M. LaFleur, Sarah LaFleur, speaks to Michel Martin
about how they've been navigating the uncertainty this past year.
[13:40:00]
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHEL MARTIN, CONTRIBUTOR: Thanks, Bianna. Debbie Wei Mullin, Sarah LaFleur, thank you both so much for talking with us once again.
DEBBIE WEI MULLIN, FOUNDER, COPPER COW COFFEE: Thank you.
SARAH LAFLEUR, FOUNDER AND CEO, M.M. LAFLEUR: Thank you.
MARTIN: So, people may remember that you joined us last April when this, the Trump administration's tariff scheme, tariff program, was first
announced. And you talked about just what chaos it kind of unleashed. So, I just wanted to kind of go back to that and just ask, what do you remember,
you know, from over the course of the year? Like, what stands out for you? Debbie, do you want to start?
MULLIN: Sure. I think it's funny because I'm sure that Sarah feels the same way that my company has lived many different lives, driven by the
tariff news, since we came onto the show. When we came onto the show last, we had just been announced that Vietnam would have 47 percent tariffs. And
it has taken on many other different values since then.
Oftentimes, you know, you have, you have product on the water and you're not -- you have no idea how much it's going to cost when it gets here. And
it's just been a really, really difficult thing that we've all had to deal with since we were on the show last.
MARTIN: Sarah, what about you? Because Debbie's got -- for people who remember and also enjoy her products, I mean, the whole -- her product is
based in Vietnam. Like, that's the whole point. It's a Vietnamese coffee. It's single origin. You know, organic. You know, she knows the farmers,
that's like the whole point.
Sarah, as I recall, you sourced from, like, China and some from Japan and some from Peru. And so, what's been the year like for you?
LAFLEUR: Yes. I would say it's been kind of whiplash after whiplash. I think after surviving the insanity that was April and May and being on
WhatsApp and phone calls with our suppliers through all hours of the night, we started to shift our focus and say, OK, are there other vendors in other
parts of the world? You know, we looked at Europe and Turkey, South America, could they be potential new partners to us? And all these things
take an extraordinarily long amount of time. And so, it really takes a year to, I would say, set up a new supplier.
Meanwhile, there's more tariff prices happening. You know, there was a question about whether Europe would face new tariffs with regards to
Greenland and what would happen there. And so, I would say the uncertainty really never eased up. And I think we've become somewhat accustomed to
living with constant anxiety around these trade rules changing potentially overnight.
MARTIN: You know, some people still think of New York as kind of the center of, you know, fashion in the United States, the garment district,
sort of, as it were. Just remind people of why you source from all these different places.
LAFLEUR: Yes, of course. You know, actually, when I started my business back in 2013, I picked New York in part because there was a garment
district and factories with sewers. But one of the many wonderful things that happened over the past decade is that my business grew and we reached
kind of small, medium-sized businesses. And the garment district simultaneously has really shrunken over the past 10 years.
And so, while small batch production still does happen, it really was not at the level or volume or, I would say, quality that we wanted to offer at
my company M.M. LaFleur. So, we started working with factories overseas. You know, a lot of the natural fibers that we get from places like Italy
and Germany, we look to manufacture those in Europe. When we're looking at synthetic fibers out of Japan, we look to manufacture those in Asia, in
places like China and Vietnam. And that is really how most of apparel manufacturing works today.
You know, there is very little clothing that Americans purchase today that is actually manufactured in America. And I think there was a split moment
where we thought, is the long-term vision here? Maybe it'll take 20, 30 years, but is the goal to bring, you know, apparel manufacturing back into
the United States. That would cost literally tens of billions of dollars to do, but is that the long-term strategy? And I think the whiplash that we've
seen in the tariffs has kind of quickly shown that that is not going to be the case.
And so, you know, we did not even consider bringing any manufacturing back to the United States. Our, you know, path forward was, OK, where else -- if
not China and Vietnam, where else are we going to? Because America does not have the resources to be able to establish the level of manufacturing we
require.
MARTIN: And, Debbie, remind us again of the story of your business. I mean, there's a reason why that you got interested in Single Origin instead
of Vietnamese coffee. You were telling us that at one point it was threatened at like almost 50 percent.
MULLIN: Yes.
MARTIN: Would that have -- I mean, sorry, I know it's a pain point here, but would that have shut your business down?
MULLIN: It would have been lethal. It would have been lethal. We would have had to have shut down the business. It would have been such a
disadvantage compared to any other coffee growing country in the world.
[13:45:00]
MARTIN: Sarah, you were saying in our last conversation, in fact, you've said this a couple of times in different sort of venues that
unpredictability is the enemy of business growth.
LAFLEUR: A hundred percent.
MARTIN: Could you just say more about that?
LAFLEUR: Sure. You know, maybe I'll speak directly to fashion and apparel, which is what I know. Any piece of clothing that -- let's say we release it
on our website or we put it in the stores tomorrow, if you think about how long it took for that product to get to that point, we've probably started
designing that product anywhere from 12 to 18 months before.
And in order to actually even get to that point where we're thinking about designing that product, we're having to go to fabric shows and pick out the
right fabrics. We're having to go to factories and make sure that we have the right factory partners. You know, it is really at least a year to two-
year process just leading up to the fact that we are deciding to make that piece of clothing. Let's just say it's a shirt.
And then after we have the factory in place and we've decided which fabric we want to use, then we go and put in the fabric order. And let's say that
fabric is being manufactured in Italy, and that may take anywhere from two to four months. And then that fabric takes another two months to get on a
boat and arrive to wherever it is that's going to be manufacturing. Let's say, you know, in this case, it's Turkey.
And then it takes another two months to manufacture there. And it takes another four weeks to ship to our warehouse in New York. And then it takes
another two weeks to then go to the store. So, you can see just how long that supply chain is. And, I mean, that is really one of the biggest
challenges of, I think, any manufacturing industry that deals with physical product. But because that lead time is so long, when these things change on
a dime, you really have no way to course correct.
So, if we knew that the tariffs were going to be implemented in two years' time, OK, we can work backwards to say, all right, we know that this cost
is going to be there, so let's try to factor that in. But when it kind of gets imposed upon you, you know, starting in 30 days or starting in two
weeks, by that point, the product is already made, all the investments have gone into that piece of clothing. It's too late. And so, you have to
release it and kind of take the hit on the margin and then ultimately a loss.
MARTIN: Debbie, what about you? The farmers you work with, the people that you work with in Vietnam, what kinds of conversations are you having with
them? Do they feel like they're caught in the middle? Do they feel like they're being punished for something that they don't even understand or
didn't do?
MULLIN: Definitely. And I think that, you know, similar to Sarah, we've been in business for nine years. You know, we've -- these are many, many
years long relationships that we have with the farms, with all of our manufacturers, and how we have had to have those conversations about, you
know, we are in this position, we need to figure out how we're going to make the costs work, how we're going to be able to get product to our
customers.
Because similarly, what's hard for us is that still the majority of food and beverage is sold in stores. We have a great e-commerce business, but
we're in every single Whole Foods, we're national with Target, and we've been expanded heavily into Target this year. And we had sold it in at a
certain price. And all of that has been shipped. And you can't -- in terms of shifts, it's all been decided, it's all been agreed upon. And you're not
really sure, because you're not sure if this is temporary, because if you increase the price, and then decrease it, there's penalties for that,
actually, with the way that the warehouses work.
And I think that it's been really hard for us to think about, if we increase our price, how many customers we're going to lose, whether that's
someone walking into a store, or whether that's losing your place on the shelf, and being able to try to just basically foot the bill in the short-
term, so that you can keep that standing, not really sure what's going to happen tomorrow, how much -- we have no idea how much a shipment is going
to cost when it lands in the past year.
And I think that's something that's been really interesting has been that my whole time working in Vietnam, it's always felt like the U.S. market has
been considered relatively the gold standard, something that everyone would love to participate in, particularly in coffee. And that sentiment is
really changing. And while we have really strong relationships with our suppliers today, when we've tried to onboard some new suppliers, we've had
people say categorically that they don't want to work with American companies. They're terrified of the volatility as well, and how that really
hurts the optionality for businesses to be able to get the best manufacturing quality pricing for our customers.
MARTIN: They say to your face, they say, we're not doing that. We're not doing that.
MULLIN: Literally. I've literally had manufacturers say, given all of the tariff news, that we are not interested in expanding into the U.S. market.
MARTIN: Wow. So, just to be clear, for some people who still may not get this, you pay the tariffs. Is this correct? You are the ones who pay the
tariffs.
MULLIN: Yes.
MARTIN: Because the tariffs have to be paid before your products come into the country. That's how it works.
MULLIN: Exactly.
MARTIN: So, Debbie, you don't have to tell me, but I would be interested, how much do you think you paid in tariff fees?
[13:50:00]
MULLIN: Hundreds of thousands of dollars in tariffs last year. Unexpected. That's people's salaries. That's -- there's a lot of things. It's the
marketing support that we need to be able to get a small brand out there that's new. There's a lot of things that we really had to make hard choices
as those tariffs started to really roll in. And we kept -- you know, every day waiting because -- we'd hear murmurs that coffee was going to be
exempt. But we paid those tariffs for, you know, I believe it was six months.
MARTIN: So, that brings me to my next question. The Supreme Court struck down the president's tariffs program in its current form. Within hours, the
administration said that there was going to be this new across-the-board tariff using a different trade law, initially 10 percent, signaling it
could rise. But some companies are already asking for refunds. Are you? Debbie, are you going to ask for it? Are you going to ask for refunds?
FedEx is already -- I mean, I can name FedEx because this is a public issue. FedEx has already said they want their money.
LAFLEUR: Oh, we want our money back. Let me tell you, that was one of the first calls we made. You know, made our -- we spoke to our lawyer. You
know, we said, what do you think the chances are? Let me be clear, I'm not holding my breath. You know, I think we saw this with the ERC during COVID.
It ultimately took two, three years. And I know that process was an absolute disaster. And I'm not sure we're ever going to see our tariff back
again. But, you know, I'm with Debbie on this one.
We were estimating that we probably spent somewhere between a million, 2 million in tariff dollars. And to be clear, that has cost us jobs. We've
had to eliminate rules. We've had to pass on some of the cost increase to the customer. It has been net negative. And, you know, I'm -- I just want
to kind of put that into very, very concrete terms. Because I think, you know, the thought coming out of this was that the tariffs were then going
to supposedly like fund something incredible. And I just -- as a -- I just say this as a consumer, I have not felt the benefits of the tariffs in any
part of my day-to-day living.
MARTIN: And, Debbie, I take it the same is true for you?
MULLIN: If anything, I know that because so many of us view the tariffs as potentially, you know, temporary, a lot of us have just kind of foot the
bill. And the same way that if you're a small family and you have some type of big crisis happen, do you sell your house right away? No, you spend your
savings and assume that things are going to get better.
And I think that a lot of great brands are going to be at a pretty bad crossroads around how -- and I think people are going to have to raise
their prices as we look into 2026. You're going to see prices raise a lot from these tariff dynamics.
MARTIN: I'm just listening to both of you, and you've both -- you have figured it out. I mean, the fact is, you're still -- you're both still
here. You've kept your businesses going. And, you know, you've had new sort of products coming out. So, some people might listen to you and say, hey,
well, you guys are figuring it out. So, you know, short-term pain, long- term gain, maybe.
LAFLEUR: I would say, you know, and our teams are extraordinarily resilient. And I am so proud of them and proud of us for how we've met the
moment. And it's been a real challenging year, but we're here and we're still standing. I am so proud of that.
I will also say resilience is not a strategy. Resilience is not what grows the company. We're here to scale businesses. We're here to achieve, you
know, more profitability, to be able to hire more people and really grow the business and deliver really fabulous products to the customers who love
the brand. You know, that's the dream. The dream is not survival.
And so, I think the tariffs over the past year has just been -- it feels kneecapping. And has certainly delayed the dreams that I've had for the
business for at least a year, if not longer.
MARTIN: Debbie, what about you?
MULLIN: I agree. I think it's impossible to have a strategy in this amount of unpredictability. And I think that that's going to stifle innovation,
whether that means within companies like Sarah and my own, where we have stripped down our teams due to all of these tariff costs to be able to just
fight another day, all the way to people not being able to start new companies and bring new ideas to life because it's such a difficult
environment to be able to start and grow a business.
MARTIN: Debbie Wei Mullin and Sarah LaFleur, thank you both so much for talking with us.
LAFLEUR: Take care. Thank you.
MULLIN: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GOLODRYGA: And finally, a brand-new day, a brand-new season of the Sunrise Piano Concert by The Black Sea. Basking in the golden glow, hundreds
gathered on the waterfront in Odessa, Ukraine, listening to gentle melodies played by pianist Igor Yanchuk.
[13:55:00]
After a four-month break from his weekly performances due to the harsh winter, he's returned with his first notes drifting alongside the calm
waves of the ocean. It's a rare reprieve from the strain of Russia's war in Ukraine, which has entered its fifth year. Feeling the healing power of
music, spectators say this is truly a panacea for the soul and worth living for. Some nice images to leave you there with.
That is it for now. If you ever miss our show, you can find the latest episode shortly after it airs on our podcast. And remember, you can always
catch us online, on our website, and all-over social media. Thank you for watching and goodbye from New York.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[14:00:00]
END
