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Amanpour
Interview with "Never Say War" Author Asne Seierstad; Interview with Getulio Vargas Foundation Professor of International Relations Oliver Stuenkel; Interview with Chatham House Latin America Programme Director Christopher Sabatini. Aired 1-2p ET
Aired August 17, 2026 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[13:00:00]
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone, and welcome to "Amanpour." Here's what's coming up.
Trump's envoy Jared Kushner meets Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a bid to kick-start the peace plan for Gaza. Can diplomacy be revived? I asked
CNN's Jerusalem Bureau Chief Oren Liebermann.
Then, as Ukraine and Russia intensify strikes, I speak to journalist Asne Seierstad, whose new book, "Never Say War," gives us a rare and extensive
look inside Russia.
Plus, Brazil's election battle begins. President Lula da Silva launches his bid for a historic fourth term and right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro closes
in. So, what's driving voters to the polls? I'm joined by experts Oliver Stuenkel and Chris Sabatini.
Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Bianna Golodryga in New York, sitting in for Christiane Amanpour.
For more than four hours, U.S. Envoy Jared Kushner pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza peace plan. Fresh
from a rare meeting with a senior Hamas official, Kushner was sent to Israel today to get Netanyahu on board with Trump's 15-point plan. He urged
the prime minister to, quote, "not create obstacles." That is according to one Israeli source.
But with elections looming in Israel, Netanyahu appears unpersuaded. Over 100,200 -- over 1,200 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire was
agreed to 10 months ago, and the future of Gaza still hangs in the balance.
For more on all this, let's bring in CNN's Jerusalem bureau chief Oren Liebermann. So, Oren, it is reported that in addition to Jared Kushner and
the prime minister, Trump's Gaza envoy Nikolay Mladenov and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee were in these
meetings that the Israeli prime minister's office described as deep and constructive talks.
The takeaway appears so far that Israel can continue to carry out targeted strikes in Gaza while working groups get stood up, one on disarmament, one
on sanitation and clean water. How should we interpret this meeting today?
OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF: Well, it's very difficult to see if there is any clear path forward here, although there certainly are
positive statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office, as well as from the Board of Peace, whose director, Nikolay
Mladenov, was in there. And we're waiting to hear -- to see if, rather, Jared Kushner puts out a statement himself after the meeting.
And part of the challenge here is that we are seeing the Board of Peace come out on what is very much Israel's side, saying that before there are
any steps towards reconstruction or the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, there has to be a complete disarmament of Hamas, including heavy
weaponry, light weaponry, and that needs to take part in a process and be confirmed. That process would be, at least according to what we're hearing
after the meeting, led by an American general.
Israel has refused to conduct any sort of withdrawal until the complete disarmament of Hamas, and it's because of that that we saw Netanyahu reject
the 15-point peace plan that President Donald Trump hailed as a major breakthrough at the end of last month.
The challenge there is that though Hamas has, at least in principle, agreed to a disarmament plan, they've made clear they're not doing that
unilaterally. They're not willing to simply do that on their own with no sequence withdrawal of Israeli forces and with no halt to the near-daily
Israeli attacks in Gaza. Given those positions, Israel not willing to make any steps until the complete disarmament of Hamas, Hamas not willing to
take any steps without sequenced Israeli steps, it's unclear that there really is a path forward here.
That being said, according to a Board of Peace official, it's clear whose position they're taking here. They said, and I'll quote from some comments
they made after the meeting, they said, quote, "the Israelis are going to give this a chance. Now, it's up to Hamas to show if it truly intends to
comply."
[13:05:00]
And what's interesting about that statement, Bianna, it is that it contrasts completely with a joint statement by a number of Arab and Muslim
countries that came out on Sunday afternoon which blamed Israel and Netanyahu's rejection of the 15-point plan for the impasse here.
So, we are still effectively at the same point we've been now for months, which is that each side is blaming each other, and it's not clear what the
real path forward is here. And that leaves Gaza and the state it's been in basically since the ceasefire 10 months ago.
GOLODRYGA: And we're today talking about a meeting between the prime minister and Jared Kushner over the weekend, an even rarer meeting, and
that was between Jared Kushner in Cairo, Egypt, with President Sisi alongside senior members and leadership of Hamas. What did we learn about
what came out of that meeting?
LIEBERMANN: We haven't learned nearly as much about that meeting. It is only the second known meeting between Kushner and Hamas. The first was
actually 10 months ago in the run-up to the 20-point ceasefire plan that ended the Gaza war and saw the release of the remaining Israeli hostages.
This one actually took place in El Alamein, so north of Cairo, and it was an important meeting. Kushner also met with the Egyptian president. Kushner
is trying to get -- and he was also joined by Nikolay Mladenov.
Kushner is trying to get concrete steps forward here. They're trying to move forward on what is a very stalled ceasefire plan. There's been little
movement on the 20-point plan since back in October, effectively since the release of the hostages and exchange and release of Palestinian prisoners,
and that frankly is why there had to be another 15-point plan that was put out at the end of July. That too has stalled. It hasn't really gone
anywhere here.
Kushner is looking for, and the Trump administration is looking for, some sort of actionable plan here to keep this ceasefire alive, and though it
may not be officially dead, it's not clear that it's really moving forward at this point.
GOLODRYGA: And, Oren, this all comes as Israelis are just weeks away from a very important and consequential election in Israel. It is notable, given
the ties between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, that President Trump hasn't come out officially and endorsed the prime minister
ahead of these elections.
At one point he was very popular in Israel. I'm speaking about President Trump, much more popular than Prime Minister Netanyahu. I know his approval
rating has gone down a bit, but given how important this relationship is for the prime minister, I'm just wondering what you're hearing about the
pressure or perhaps the wiggle room that President Trump is willing to apply to the prime minister at this point.
LIEBERMANN: Trump definitely seems to be aware that in the background of trying to push forward this ceasefire plan, there are Israeli elections,
and Netanyahu from his own perspective cannot be seen to be making concessions to Gaza. That would largely be viewed by the Israeli public as
making concessions to Hamas.
Netanyahu notably three years ago promised a total or complete victory over Hamas, and that has very much failed to materialize. So, making concessions
towards Gaza and Hamas right now could potentially be very damaging to Netanyahu. In fact, according to an Israeli source familiar with the
discussions between Kushner and Netanyahu, Netanyahu said any concessions now would be, quote, "problematic for him to make." So, that gives you the
Israeli challenge of it.
You're absolutely right that Trump has not come out and endorsed Netanyahu yet. That is very frequently covered and noted by the Israeli media. In
fact, it may be part of the reason that we haven't seen big Trump-Netanyahu billboards in Israel as we've seen in the past. Trump, you're right to
point out, is not nearly as popular as he was. And Israelis view the ceasefire with Iran and the agreement with Iran as largely American
capitulation to Iranian demands.
And that all factors into how Netanyahu views the politics around not only Iran but also the ceasefire with Gaza. And he's not likely to make any
major steps, potentially any steps at all, towards Gaza and towards the ceasefire plan ahead of the elections. They did agree to stand up to
working groups on sanitation and on disarmament, but those are working groups. And we'll see if they deliver anything anytime in the next few
weeks or months.
GOLODRYGA: Oren Liebermann in Jerusalem for us, thank you as always.
Well, now Taiwan is bracing for what it sees as one of its greatest threats, a potential invasion from China. With President Trump focused on
the war on Iran and China stepping up its military drills around the island nation, the government is strengthening its defenses and preparing for the
worst, practicing new emergency exercises of its own.
[13:10:00]
From Taiwan, CNN's Will Ripley explains how the threat of war is already changing everyday life.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Taiwan's capital, a jarring reminder of how quickly things can change.
Every phone gets the same alert, missile attack. Seek immediate shelter. In less than two minutes, Taipei is silent. This may be a drill, but it
doesn't feel like one.
China's military is actively training in the waters and skies around Taiwan, practicing blockades, joint combat operations, and rocket strikes.
RIPLEY: It's surreal to see the busiest intersection in Taipei or at least one of them totally dead. Everybody is pulled over and hunkering down
underground or inside.
RIPLEY (voice-over): On top of that, mobile internet slows to a crawl. Sending a text takes several minutes, testing how Taiwan could cope if its
communications came under fire. These are the island's biggest annual military exercises. The major focus this year? Preparing the entire society
for what a Chinese attack could really be like.
BEN LEWIS, CO-FOUNDER, PLA TRACKER: It's very likely that in the event of an invasion, China is going to strike critical infrastructure in Taiwan,
but also use its cyber capabilities to degrade Taiwan's network connections in an attempt to cause chaos.
RIPLEY (voice-over): PLA Tracker co-founder Ben Lewis traveled from Washington to observe all 10 days of Taiwan's drills.
LEWIS: The United States has a very significant interest in ensuring that Taiwan can stand and fight on its own, to, you know, ensure that there is a
deterrent against China that doesn't totally rely on U.S. intervention.
RIPLEY (voice-over): And increasingly, many Taiwanese believe they may have to stand alone. One recent survey found less than a quarter of voters
here see the United States as a trustworthy ally.
RIPLEY: Do you trust that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to attack?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Taiwanese also, they need to believe in themselves. Like, no matter if Trump or the USA, they will help us, we still need to
have the courage to do some action.
RIPLEY (voice-over): I think not because Trump is the president. He prioritizes his interests. America's interests first. Plus, if you just
watch what's going on in Iran, you'll know that the U.S. is not reliable. I also don't think we can rely on the U.S.
A tiny democracy preparing for war with a superpower, a war Taiwan hopes will never come, but is preparing to fight with or without American help.
RIPLEY (on camera): This drill comes as Beijing ramps up pressure on Taiwan, taking steps that stop just short of war, sending ships and Coast
Guard vessels farther into the Pacific, and increasingly challenging American power in this region. And now, with the U.S. tied up in Iran with
no end in sight, Taiwan is preparing for the possibility it may have to hold out on its own, making these drills and preparing the entire society
for a crisis all the more urgent.
Will Ripley, CNN, Taipei.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GOLODRYGA: Our thanks to Will Ripley. Still to come, Ukraine launched one of its largest counterstrikes yet. So, are Kyiv's efforts hurting support
for Putin's war? Journalist Asne Seierstad shares what she saw inside wartime Russia.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[13:15:00]
GOLODRYGA: Next to Ukraine, which launched one of its largest drone assaults over the war over the weekend, with hundreds of strikes aimed
directly at Moscow. One of the targets was yet another Wildberries warehouse, the Russian equivalent of Amazon. It comes after an intense
bombardment of Kyiv by Russian missiles, as Ukraine's Patriot interceptors run dangerously low. For more on this, here's Nick Paton Walsh with an
exclusive report from Ukraine.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Out in the quiet corn, a moment of absolute desperation. Ukraine's never shown anyone these before, an American-made Patriot air defense
launcher. The interceptors they fire, the only thing that can take down Russian ballistic missiles that rain down on Ukraine, are under a huge
global supply shortage. But these here are sitting idle, doing nothing, when in Ukraine they could be saving lives almost nightly. Why? They're
empty, out of ammo.
WALSH: This tube being empty is a sight really that would spark fear for ordinary Ukrainians, and is the product of dozens of phone calls to any
ally, all sorts of deal-making President Zelenskyy told me to try and find the interceptors to fill this up. An extraordinary step they're taking by
showing us the fact this particular Patriot battery is essentially out of action until interceptors arrive, a sign of desperation.
WALSH (voice-over): Chief Engineer Dmytro says it is two and a half months since this one fired, and six weeks since he saw one fire at all.
DMYTRO, CHIEF ENGINEER, UKRAINE'S PATRIOT SYSTEM: You know, actually, this is a really heartbreaking sight, when you have equipment, but you're not
able to intercept any missile. This is very sad. When you know that ballistic missiles are flying over your head and you are not able to do
anything with it, and you know that behind you there are citizens.
WALSH: And how does that make you feel, knowing that you should help, but can't?
DMYTRO: Like, you learn how to walk, but you're not able to walk. Or you know how to breathe, but you're not able to breathe.
WALSH (voice-over): He knew the global supply crunch was coming.
DMYTRO: When we saw how many interceptors were launched in the Middle East, we predicted that we will be in trouble.
WALSH (voice-over): Ukraine has been reluctant to admit if they have zero interceptors left, President Zelenskyy telling me every morning he begs
allies for more.
VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT: I do some things which I can't even share. It's not -- it doesn't mean that it's out of the law, no, but
it's -- I can't speak about it.
WALSH (voice-over): Kyiv is rocked by a massive ballistic attack normally once a week, racing to the subway and shelters where before, they felt
protected, they are not anymore. It is America first in the queue and Ukraine left to anxiety in the rubble.
Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Kyiv, Ukraine.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GOLODRYGA: Well, as Kyiv brings the front-line home to ordinary Russians, one question takes center stage, how much support does this war still have
inside Russia? Asne Seierstad's groundbreaking new book, "Never Say War," tries to answer that, not from the battlefield, but through the daily lives
shaped and fractured by a war their own government forbids them from even saying. And Asne joins me now live from Oslo. Welcome to the program.
[13:20:00]
Let's just start with the title of the book, because this is a word war that was illegal in Russia following the start of the larger scale invasion
in February of 2024. I'm curious, given your time reporting and speaking with people on the ground, what is the consequence of a society forced to
live inside of a lie like that?
ASNE SEIERSTAD, AUTHOR "NEVER SAY WAR": Well, the Russian society is very much based on fear and many people are also kind of this -- there's a quote
about Russians that there's this learned indifference, which is not only happening in the Putin era, but it's through the generations.
So, the biggest part of the population would be in that basket of the so called indifferent, whereas you of course, you have those who -- with their
whole souls support the president support the war. And then on the other side, you have those who risk their lives in the fight against Putin and
against the war. But most of the population, they try to live a life as if there is no war. And even the war -- the word war has been forbidden to use
when it comes to the war in Ukraine, as are the words invasion as an annexation. And there are people in prison just to -- just, you know,
pronounced or called the Ukraine war a war.
GOLODRYGA: Yes. And Putin famously, I think, continues to this day calling it a special military operation. It's interesting how you were able to get
inside Russia because you didn't get to the country as a journalist. You came in on a business visa invited by your publisher. Was that a loophole
or a disguise? And what impact did that have on your flexibility on the ground and speaking to people?
SEIERSTAD: Yes, it was a loophole, I would say, not a disguise, because if you go there in disguise, you will be very easily arrested as a spy. So, I
was very open about I was there to write a book about Russian culture and society. And as we know, the Russian culture is also very much based on
violence.
So, in that sense, that's what I found out. I really discovered the brutality of the Russian society, the violence, whether it's in the army,
in the prisons, on the streets, in the schoolyards, you know, in the families. And the violence starts from the top, but it's also something
that's definitely at the base level, too.
So, but I was definitely able to work much more freely than a journalist. So, I was traveling, I was going to, I had several trips out to Siberia, I
was following the schools, because I find education to be so interesting. Now, what is the new -- you know, the children that grew up and know
nothing but the Putinist era, and it's not just the young children, but even up to university, they -- you know, it's been in power for 26 years,
and how has that formed them? And this forced patriotism that you find in schools, I went to orphanages, I went and met, you know, peasant people in
the depth of the country to find out whether they see the war differently.
And the thing is that, you know, when you live in Siberia, you -- you know, you travel for hours without seeing people. So, they were asking me the
question, why is there really a war? We didn't need more land, did we? Like for them, for many Russians, it's like, why did we need a piece of Ukraine?
And that was also a bit eye opening when it comes to -- we tend to think that, oh, most Russians just listen to the propaganda and believe
everything in state TV if they've lived far from the center. But I found Russians to be thinking for themselves, but they don't use those thoughts
or that knowledge much in order to change anything.
GOLODRYGA: Yes. And in the education, I mean, it's pretty clear how much Vladimir Putin in particular has invested in propaganda and education and
what many dub indoctrination, really, of Russian students. There was an award-winning documentary film that won Best Documentary this year at the
Oscars, "Mr. Putin Against Nobody," because this was something that was documented happening throughout the country, children learning at a very
young age about the war and being misled oftentimes about what started the war and what's behind it.
I want to get to some of the people who you interviewed, because one of them, a Wagner defector, and you picked up on this earlier, has only really
known one leader of his country, and that is Vladimir Putin, who came to power when Andrei Medvedev was just three years old.
[13:25:00]
You chronicle his journeys. He was a convicted felon. He fled across the Arctic, got to Norway, got into fights in Oslo. Then he wanted to go back
home, clearly knowing the fate that awaited him. Tell me what you learned from him.
SEIERSTAD: Well, Andrei is a very typical soldier, typical Wagner soldier too, and this war is being fought by the poor people of Russia. Like he
comes from far into Siberia. So, it's fought by the young boys of the regions, of many minorities, in his case, broken families. His father was
an alcoholic. The mother died by a drunk driver. You know, so, the background is very much like he goes through an orphanage, and from an
orphanage, the way into a youth prison, and then youth prison to adult prison, and then from adult prison to army when he's 18 years old.
So, he's formed. He is -- he has this quote he uses very often that the best soldier is the one no one's going to miss, and he's one of those. If
something happens to him in the Russian army or on the battlefield, nobody's going to care. So, he is kind of a tool, and boys like him and men
like him are tools of Putin. He needs those quite unprivileged, young, brutal men who fight this war without mercy and for money more than for
patriotism.
And when he was talking about the Wagner soldiers and other soldiers, he met when I asked, well, do they -- people believe in the cause? Is it for -
- you know, for the country? And he was like, no, this is all for money, and it's quite big money and blood money. So, Putin is paying parts of the
population to wage this war.
GOLODRYGA: Yes. You've said that rural Russia, you can't see the war at all until you see the graveyards, and that landscape really teaches you
about who is actually fighting in this war. And as you noted, so much of it is based on minority groups, right, and those who come from very
impoverished and rural areas, where the money that they get for fighting in this war really changes the impact that it has on their family lives, even
if it means it risks their very own life.
Tell us about a pro-Putin voter who you met, who to this day still supports him, because there are many in Russia who still support Vladimir Putin, and
it's not, it goes beyond just the fear factor. Can you talk to us about that voter and why, why after all of these years and the isolation that he
has brought to their country, do they still back him?
SEIERSTAD: Well, they are also isolated themselves, because now there's only state media, there's no oppositional media left that is free. Of
course, you can find it somewhere on the internet, if you search, and if you have a VPN, like a virtual -- your own virtual private network, but for
the most people, they only have one channel and one voice, and there they learn that Putin has saved them from an invasion of America and Europe and
Ukraine, and that the war is just a defense against the -- like they came like a preemptive strike, so that Ukraine wouldn't attack them.
So, some -- I mean, some Russians believe that Putin is there to protect them, and without him, they would have been lost. And also, for some
people, you know, life became better with Putin economically, also because it helped him with the rise of the oil prices. And they have -- many
Russians want, like being -- living in a strong, powerful country is important. And they lost so much, they feel with the end of the Soviet
Union, and now finally, Putin is there to -- you know, to be strong on the agenda.
So, it's reasons like that people still support Putin, and also out of fear, and also because there's a mass propaganda against the liberal
parties. Today, one of the liberal parties were banned, one of the people I met from the party, Yabloko, in Pskov, in the west of the country, he is
now in prison for 12 years, he was in house arrest when I met him.
[13:30:00]
So, whenever -- since I left the country, everything is getting worse. So, Putin is now tightening up, now with the new attacks from Ukraine, he is
afraid of a new kind of a more forceful peace movement to appear. So, he's definitely banning more people, imprisoning more people, putting this
stamp, foreign agents on more people, so that they cannot be part of any political movement.
GOLODRYGA: One of the stories that really resonated with me, and I think speaks to so many young Russian families, that now four and a half years
later, have really seen their lives turned upside down, following this war, is that of Maria Andreeva, and her young husband, she was a pediatrician,
he also wanted to be a practicing masseuse, they had many years of difficulty even having children, they went through the IVF process, and
then her husband is mobilized, and from there on in, she becomes a warrior, in a sense, fighting for families, as a wife of someone whose husband was
taken from her, as they were raising a young daughter, and she too, then became the victim of this authoritarian route that Vladimir Putin has
increasingly taken over the last few years. Tell us about Maria.
SEIERSTAD: Yes, absolutely. She -- they were trying for eight years to have a child, and when they got one, a year after, just after her first
birthday, the husband was mobilized, and as a nurse, and for a long time, she had no idea where he was, and she's really been fighting to get the
husband back, he ended up -- he came back, but is in psychiatric ward.
So, the toll on the soldiers, even of course, the main victim here is Ukraine, and the Ukrainians, but how also the Russian soldiers are also
used, as what they called Putin the meat grinder, for him, the toll was too much, how he would have to -- as a former masseuse, had to now pick out the
pieces of his comrades from black baskets.
And what happened to Maria, she was arrested, she was released, the police came to her door, because she founded this organization called the Way
Home, and that was about the mobilized soldiers coming home, and without the soldiers, there would be no war, so in a sense, there's also an anti-
war movement, but she's now designed, assigned, a foreign agent, which means she cannot have contact with children, so she lost her job, she
cannot be in politics, she's having to pay huge fines to be able to live.
So, what he's -- she said that Putin is spitting on young families, even though he calls this last year, it was the so-called year of the family,
and she said like no man, no other man has destroyed more families than Putin has. So, it's now about a million men who are either dead or so
seriously wounded on the Russian side, that they -- you know, they're kind of, you know, out of the society.
So, it's a catastrophe, also for a young family like Maria's family, she's now alone with the daughter, and for the country as such, with catastrophic
birth rates.
GOLODRYGA: And it's only getting worse, you asked her to write an epilogue, and she says she couldn't, because it's even more dangerous today
than it was in 2024. I'd like to ask just about your own experience, and whether you had concerns for your own safety, you said you traveled to
Siberia, I know you were barricaded in your hotel room, one night it happened to be the same hotel where Navalny was poisoned, were you
concerned that perhaps you too could have been killed, or seriously injured, or arrested during this time?
SEIERSTAD: Well, I lay a plan, I was trying to be very careful, so I started out on the first trips to speak to the so-called elite, like the
oligarchs, the pro-Putinists, those that I call it are the -- doing the balancing act. So, in the beginning I was not really doing anything against
the regime, because it was also interesting to hear their voices.
And then after going to Siberia, and then only later when I started to work with the opposition, of course, that was also for their safety that I
didn't spend too much time with those who really risked their lives in the fight against Putin.
[13:35:00]
But towards the end I was -- I realized and I noticed people following me, and waiting for me, and that's when I barricaded my rooms, because I was
thinking if they come to poison me, I don't want to be asleep, so I was like, because I know they had the keys. So, I was -- so that is that
situation, but I was also later held back at the border between Estonia and Russia, and held in for quite a fierce questioning.
But I was let out, and that became the last visit. In total I did eight trips, eight long trips, and every trip had kind of a different set of
people, so that I wouldn't put the Russians that I spoke to in too much of a danger.
GOLODRYGA: I mean, it's clear that there is an intimidation factor as well for anybody, there is a long record of those who go into the country and do
the kind of work that you're doing, journalists, writers who have been jailed, and so we are grateful that you have been able to leave, and leave
with all of this documentation, we always ask ourselves, how do Russians feel about this war, and you really have a wide spectrum here of Russian
stories to bring for readers.
About what happens tomorrow, and I don't mean even when this war ends, in a post-Putin world, are conversations being had about what Russia looks like
then, and the direction that it heads in?
SEIERSTAD: Well, for many people there's a nostalgia, no longer for the Soviet Union, but for the pre-war period, where people lived, even though
very controlled, even, you know, in the last decades during Putin, but still not with austere rules of war censorship, and war control that you
have now, and now the new thing is the digital control over people, that that's really been enforced over the last years, like you have to have an
app where you're being monitored, everything you do on your phone, which is basically all your life, is being monitored, and it's also more
restrictions of what you can say.
And a post-Putin era, of course, there are many people dreaming of that, but as we know, there's no plan from Putin or the regime to step down,
there's no succession that we know of, it's all, and no defectors, as we know of for the moment, it's really a rock-solid regime, that unfortunately
seems to be sitting for the time being quite safely.
GOLODRYGA: The most nuclear-powered country in the world, as well, important to note that. Asne Seierstad, thank you so much for the
conversation, thank you for your work, really appreciate it. Thank you for joining the show.
SEIERSTAD: Thank you. Thank you for having me.
GOLODRYGA: All right. And later in the program, as election campaigning for the next Brazilian president kicks off, I ask two experts in Latin
American politics, what's at stake for the country and its relationship with the U.S.?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[13:40:00]
GOLODRYGA: Next to Brazil, where election campaigning is officially underway. As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known simply as Lula,
bids for his historic fourth term, his main opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, is a right-wing senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is
currently under house arrest for attempting to overturn the election that brought Lula back to power.
Central to each campaign is how the candidates will handle their president Trump. Lula is making Brazilian sovereignty a central issue amid heightened
tensions with Washington, while Bolsonaro is leaning on his family's close ties to the Trump administration. If he wins in October, it would further
accelerate a right-wing shift that is sweeping the region.
Let's bring in Chris Sabatini, director of the Latin America program at Chatham House, and Oliver Stuenkel, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace. Welcome, both of you.
So, Oliver, let me begin with you. Four years later, it's almost as if we're having Bolsonaro versus Lula part two. It's a different Bolsonaro.
It's his son. But it's the same platform, the same messaging. Is this rematch energizing Brazilian voters, or is it exhausting them?
OLIVER STUENKEL, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, GETULIO VARGAS FOUNDATION: Bianna, I think a lot of voters would prefer another
candidate, a third candidate, who could escape this situation of polarization, but none has been able to break through because both
candidates do have sets of voters who are mobilized. However, both candidates also have relatively high rejection rates, both 45 percent plus.
So, I do sense that there is the desire for something different.
After all, Lula was first president in the '80s. He first ran for president when I was seven years old. So, many Brazilians are also looking for new
figures. The Bolsonaro family, as I said, also very high rejection rates. So, I think voters are clearly less enthusiastic than they have been four
years ago.
GOLODRYGA: And, Chris, just to pick up on that, Lula is now in his '80s. He's battling skin cancer. He's still shadowed by a corruption scandal for
which he was sent to prison, and then he was later exonerated. At this point, what is his greatest asset, and what is his greatest weakness?
CHRISTOPHER SABATINI, DIRECTOR, LATIN AMERICA PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE: I think there are two assets that Lula brings. The first of all is that,
basically, Donald Trump has made it very clear that he prefers the Bolsonaros, father and son -- sons, actually. And that there are some
Brazilians that deeply resent the Trump administration's intervention in domestic politics and even the independent judicial system when he
sanctioned a Supreme Court justice that was investigating the attempted coup, as you mentioned, in 2023. So, it is -- you know, there is this sense
that they need to move on.
But I also think what is driving this, largely, is the fear of crime. If you look at surveys, Brazilians are feeling insecure, and they feel,
certainly, that their lives, their livelihoods are at risk. And, quite frankly, Lula has not been particularly effective in responding to those
fears.
So, you've got an economic hope and you've got the issues of nationalism, but you also have what is driving, across Latin America, people's votes
often in looking for some sort of iron-fisted response to their feelings of insecurity.
GOLODRYGA: And to the point of feeling secure, both financially and physically, that is something that Flavio has really been running on,
Oliver. He has the face -- I mean, he's a spitting image of his father. He is younger. He's 45 years old. He polls strongest on crime and drug
trafficking.
[13:45:00]
Is he a formidable candidate of his own right, or is he just seen as a stand-in for his father, who is under house arrest?
STUENKEL: Well, he certainly would not be the candidate if his father had not been convicted of trying to plot a coup. He's serving a 27-year jail
sentence, is ineligible until 2030. So, he's clearly a stand-in, utilizes the material, images, recordings, some of them A.I.-generated recordings of
his father during campaign events. There would be a lot of pressure on him to try to pardon his father if he were elected.
In Brazil, it's not that easy for a president to pardon people like in the United States, so the Supreme Court would likely reject that, so you'd have
a lot of tension with the judiciary. But clearly, that's, I think, the security situation is Lula's Achilles' heel, where a lot of voters are
concerned. At the same time, it's important to point out that that is mostly a state issue, not a federal issue.
So, a lot of the rhetoric, a lot of the things that Flavio proposes would be very difficult to implement. So, a lot of these more radical proposals,
like copying Bukele in El Salvador, mega-prison, et cetera., that's largely talking points, very hard to actually implement in practice for a
president.
GOLODRYGA: Is that a mistake, Chris, in your view, to run on campaign issues? I mean, he wouldn't be the first to run on issues that he can't
deliver. But at the same time, does this resonate with not necessarily his or his father's supporters, but with some of those undecided, more centrist
voters who have yet to make their minds up?
SABATINI: So, let's talk first, Bianna, about whether this is a mistake or whether voters are perceiving it as a mistake. And we all know demagogic
candidates across the ideological spectrum tend to promise things they can't deliver. And what Flavio is doing, as did his father, Jair Bolsonaro,
is tapping into citizens' fear.
But, yes, Jair Bolsonaro didn't bring a great deal more security to Brazil. I don't know why people would expect that his son would. And as Oliver
said, this is a state issue. It's not a federal issue. Unless you bring in the military, which would be a serious error.
I will say this, though. Pete Hegseth, the U.S. secretary of defense, and Donald Trump have formed the shield of the Americas. I know it sounds like
the next edition of a Marvel movie. But it's actually this idea to try to align militaries to address insecurity, in particular attack cartels.
So, you know, it's not unlikely that if Flavio were to win, he would then count on the United States and try to then bring in the military into what
is a very dangerous area for any military in Latin America, given its past human rights abuses, or any military anywhere, for that matter, to weigh in
on. But, yes, sometimes I think the fears are so great.
And what we've seen is between Carlos, who's Flavio's brother, who's lobbied heavily the White House, and Flavio, what they've been trying to do
is sort of cozy up to the Trump administration and push for the designation of a lot of the criminal groups, including the PCC, which is based
primarily in Sao Paulo, but it's transnational, as terrorist groups. And that's a really heavy designation, because now suddenly this opens up a
huge opportunity for U.S. military action and even Brazilian military action to take out terrorists.
It's also complicating for many people who have to pay bribes and extortion to many of these groups, because they could then be accused of being
basically enabling criminal activities, but by the Trump definition, terrorism.
GOLODRYGA: Chris, can I just go back to a point you made earlier? I just want to confirm that that's what I heard. You said crime actually did not
go down in the country under Jair Bolsonaro?
SABATINI: Not dramatically, no. There was no dramatic improvements in crime during the improvements in addressing crime under Jair Bolsonaro.
GOLODRYGA: Oliver, Chris also mentioned the role of the United States here in President Trump. It is clear and pretty evident how close Trump was with
Jair Bolsonaro and how long he stood in defense of Jair Bolsonaro, really laying out policy against Brazil as sort of punishment for his treatment.
And in recent weeks, Washington has revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador, imposed tariffs up to 38 percent on Brazilian exports.
How does Trump putting his thumb on the scale impact voters, especially given that he's been quite successful in other Latin American countries?
STUENKEL: Exactly. We're seeing a policy of partisan interventionism by the United States across Latin America that has worked rather well in
places like Argentina prior to the legislative election last year, because Argentina was economically very vulnerable, where Trump offered financial
support, conditioning that on a strong showing for Milei., which happened. It also worked in Honduras, where Trump threatened the Honduran voters.
[13:50:00]
And frankly, if I were a Honduran voter, I'd probably a heed to that as well, because Honduras is highly dependent on the United States. The
situation is very different in Brazil, where that kind of pressure is actually insulting to a lot of voters. And paradoxically, it has actually
helped Lula because it allowed him to make this entire campaign about sovereignty.
The majority of Brazilian voters resent outside interference of that kind. Brazil is much less dependent on the United States. China is the biggest
trading partner since 2009. Even though the U.S. is still the key investor, there is not a sense that this kind of pressure could actually sway the
election quite to the contrary. In fact, Bolsonaro -- Flavio Bolsonaro, has traveled to Washington to ask Trump to reverse the tariffs because he, too,
realized that it helps Lula.
So, there's a bit of a joke in Brazil right now that the more Trump will seek to intervene, the more it is likely to help Lula. It's also important
to keep in mind that even though, rhetorically speaking, Bolsonaro in the past has aligned with the United States and his son could be expected to do
so as well, there's also economic realities. And even MAGA-aligned right- wing presidents in Latin America continue to work closely with China.
So, I would even expect the president, Flavio Bolsonaro, to rhetorically align with the United States, increase cooperation on security, but also
aware of the relevance of China, preserve that relationship as much as possible.
GOLODRYGA: To the point that you just made about Lula really being defiant against President Trump and some of his policies, specifically as they
relate to tariffs, Christiane spoke with him last year during an earlier round of tariff tension between the two countries. Here's what he said,
speaking through a translator.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): What we cannot have is a President Trump forgetting that he was elected to
govern the U.S., he was elected not to be the emperor of the world. It would be much better to establish a negotiation first and then to reach the
possible agreement because we're two countries that we had very good meetings and we have good relations for 200 years.
And so, he's breaking away from any protocol, any liturgy that should exist between the relations between two heads of state.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Chris, what do you make of that stance? That was, again, as I noted, a year ago. For those undecided voters, the centrist voters that are
up for grabs right now, does that message resonate or are they willing or ready to now try to mend ties with the United States?
SABATINI: You know, I think, first of all, what we need to recognize is that, you know, the sovereignty argument plays well in certain sectors,
including the business community, which has suffered under the earlier tariffs of 50 percent and also now the new proposed tariffs.
But, you know, first of all, there's a fear factor here is maybe businesses will think, well, geez, maybe we will lose investment or we will be
sanctioned or other political leaders will be sanctioned if Lula is reelected. Certainly, at a popular level, the base level, this argument for
preserving the pride of Brazilian national sovereignty. And as Oliver said, this is a direct partisan intervention. We really have not seen this. We
talk about the Monroe Doctrine and U.S. patterns of interventions. This is a completely different animal than what we've seen historically.
I think for some centrist voters as well, again, this is this is we already seen the high levels of rejection. This is not the menu of options and
leaders that many Brazilians want. So, they're going to have to choose the lesser of two evils. Some of them will be shaped by their own concerns
about Brazilian pride, Brazilian sovereignty and the right to defend its own democratic institutions and processes.
There's another incident that happened recently that merits repeating, is that the U.S. tried to send two senior level political appointees from the
State Department to Brazil, allegedly to cast dispersions and questions and doubts on the Brazilian election system. If Flavio Bolsonaro were to lose,
this is just an incredible overstepping of what the U.S. should do. An incredible, I would say, a violation of democratic sovereignty.
GOLODRYGA: Well, a lot could happen between now and October, perhaps even a runoff. Lula holds a narrow edge right now, according to the polls. Both
scenarios have in the past outperformed the polls as well. So, it clearly is up for grabs at this point. You'll be following it all closely for us.
Oliver Stuenkel and Chris Sabatini, thank you for joining the show.
SABATINI: Take care.
STUENKEL: Thank you.
[13:55:00]
GOLODRYGA: And finally, Cameroon have scored their way into the history books, claiming their first win at the Women's Africa Cup of Nations. The
team beat newcomers Malawi in a 3-0 victory, ending a painful wait for the title after losing in the final three previous times. While the game was
played in Morocco's capital of Rabat, celebrations took place thousands of miles away in Cameroon's streets.
But Sunday's win does more than just bring home the trophy, it secures Cameroon a place in the 2027 Brazil Women's World Cup. Congratulations.
Well deserved.
All right. That is it for now. If you ever miss our show, you can find the latest episode shortly after it airs on our podcast. And remember, you can
always catch us online, on our website, and all-over social media. Thanks for watching, and goodbye from New York.
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[14:00:00]
END
