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CNN's The Arena with Kasie Hunt
Key Oil Route Paralyzed, Iran Launches "Most Intense" Strikes Of War; New: Trump Says Iran War Is "Both" A War & A "Little Excursion"; Economic Impact Of Iran War Complicating Midterm Campaigns. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired March 11, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: They factor large on this show. Jackie, so we appreciate you bringing this one to us. Jackie Wattles, thank you very much.
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Bam Adebayo got 83 points last night.
KEILAR: THE ARENA WITH KASIE HUNT starts right now.
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Hi, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. Welcome to THE ARENA. It's good to have you with us on this Wednesday.
As we come on the air, the war with Iran is paralyzing a critical trade route and threatening the global oil supply, as President Donald Trump's mixed messaging gets, well, even more mixed.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: You just said it is a little excursion and you said it is a war. So, which one is it?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, it's both. It's both. It's an excursion that will keep us out of a war. And the war is going to be -- I mean, for them, it's a war for us. It's a -- turned out to be easier than we thought.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: So, which is it? Is it a war or is it an excursion?
And then there's the question of when and how it will end. This morning, the president told "Axios" that it would be over soon. He said there's practically nothing left to target. Little this and that. "Any time I wanted to end, it will end," end quote.
As we wait to see when President Trump wants this war to end, today, at least three civilian vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have come under fire. That waterway, normally home to about one fifth of the world's crude oil shipments. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps says it was behind two of the
attacks, claiming that the ships ignored warnings that the strait is closed. Three crew members are still missing from the cargo ship that you see here.
U.S. Central Command says it has begun striking Iranian mine laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. The United States believes that Iran has deployed dozens of naval mines in the area in recent days. That, according to sources familiar with intelligence reports on the matter.
All of that leading to skyrocketing gas prices here in the United States. AAA says a gallon of gas. It now costs $3.58 on average. That is up more than 60 cents from just one month ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: Are you talking to the CEOs of various oil companies encouraging them to use the Strait of Hormuz?
TRUMP: I think they should. I think they should. I think they should use the strait.
REPORTER: Mr. President, how do you respond --
TRUMP: Look, we took out just about all of their mind shifts in one night. We're up to boat number 60. I didn't realize that that big a navy. I would say it was big and ineffective. But every one of their ships -- just about all of their navy is gone. It's bottom of the sea.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Let's get off the sidelines and head into THE ARENA. My panel is here.
We also have CNN chief international security correspondent Nick Paton Walsh. He's standing by in Jordan. And we're joined by CNN's senior White House correspondent, Kristen Holmes.
Nick, I want to go first to you, because just in the last hour, we've been seeing explosions in Beirut, of course, in Lebanon. What are we learning about that?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Let me show you these extraordinary images of the southern suburbs of Beirut, Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold. It has for over a week now really been under evacuation order from the Israeli -- the Israel defense forces telling people to get out as they would target it. Ten blasts in quick succession, shaking buildings across that city, probably the most fierce explosions people have seen in quite some time. It came after another evacuation warning from the IDF telling people to get out.
This, Israel says is its response to a Hezbollah barrage of about 100 rockets that came into northern Israel from southern Lebanon, fired by Hezbollah group who joined this war, avenging, they said they would, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. They've been relatively muted, you might argue, in what they've been able to find Israel so far. This hundred rockets, a massive escalation.
And now, the IDF escalating enormously back on that southern suburb area. Basically, hundreds of thousands on the move inside of Beirut and around the country to get away from this escalating conflict -- Kasie.
HUNT: And the audience is looking at live pictures right now over -- the skies over Beirut.
Nick, I also understand you've got some new exclusive reporting on how Russia is involving itself in this war. Nick, can you explain?
WALSH: Yeah, Kasie, for a number of days, U.S. officials have been saying that Russia has been sharing sort of basic intelligence information to enable Iran to improve its targeting. But I've heard from a western intelligence official something potentially more serious that they are now sharing targeting strategies from their experience in Ukraine that they've used in Ukraine.
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Now, remember Russia has a lengthy history in Ukraine of firing sometimes a thousand of these Shahed drones every single night at Ukraine. They're designed by Iran, built en masse now in Russia.
The official I spoke to didn't specify what strategy we're talking about, but I've seen how we often view in the skies over Ukraine huge waves of drones. They suddenly take a different turn. They go in loops, and they basically the Russians, over the past three years now roughly been perfecting or trying to perfect their ways of evading Ukrainian air defense. And Ukraine has been adapting back. And it's basically a six-week innovation cycle of trying to outdo the other.
The idea that Russia would take all of its battlefield expertise from that up to the minute in real time and deliver it all to Iran to use against the U.S. and Gulf states who were not like Ukraine, adapting every single night in real time against that threat will surely be chilling. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, today said that Russia was helping Iran with drones and missiles, and indeed, he sent experts to the Gulf, including here to Jordan, to try and improve their interception skills and indeed even give them the $2,000 tiny, often 3-D printed interceptors that Ukraine is now using to take down these $30,000 Shahed.
But it is an extraordinary development here. This western intelligence official essentially outlining the fact that Russia wants to use its immediate tactical advice and know how to give Iran an advantage here -- Kasie.
HUNT: Pretty remarkable.
All right. So, Kristen, here at home, two sources tell CNN, the U.S. military did accidentally strike Iran, according to the preliminary government report, that, excuse me, it struck an Iranian elementary school. And of course, this happened at the start of the war and the reason why this may have happened is because of outdated intelligence. Of course, I think an important underscore. There were 168 children who were killed. And I know you asked the president about these preliminary findings. What did he say?
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, I mean, he didn't say much and just to kind of break down exactly what you just said, this is coming from our national security team, these two sources who have been briefed on these preliminary findings.
And I will tell you, the White House has continued to push back, saying that this is not conclusive yet, that this investigation is ongoing, but that they were using intelligence from the Defense Intelligence Agency that was outdated. And we looked at, you know, satellite images of this area, and it appears that in 2016, there was a larger compound that both had -- I want to make sure the year right, excuse me, 2013. There was a larger compound that had both a school and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard corps facility in the same place.
Now, in 2016, a fence went up separating them. A new entrance was made for the school but the two entities then were separated. The U.S. was apparently targeting that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility again, that is what the old intel would have likely shown, given the satellite imagery there.
Now, I asked President Trump about these preliminary findings. Here's -- here's what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: Report says that the military investigation has found that the United States struck the school in Iran. As commander in chief, do you take responsibility for that?
TRUMP: That is what --
HOLMES: As commander in chief, do you --
TRUMP: For what?
HOLMES: For the strike on the school in Iran, a new report says the military investigation has found it was the United States that struck the school.
TRUMP: I don't know about that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: I don't know about that. Now I will -- does seem very likely President Trump is being briefed on this in real time. We know that he has said that he would accept the findings of this investigation and Karoline Leavitt, yesterday the press secretary saying that they would release the investigation and the findings. The Pentagon would.
But again, the White House pushing back that this is the absolute end of all of this. They continue to say that this is an ongoing investigation, and this is all preliminary right now.
HUNT: All right. Kristen Holmes, Nick Paton Walsh, thank you both very much for getting us started with your reporting. Really appreciate it.
My panel is here in THE ARENA. CNN chief national affairs correspondent Jeff Zeleny; CNN political analyst, national political reporter at "Axios", Alex Thompson; former DNC senior advisor and communications director Xochitl Hinojosa, and former Trump campaign advisor and Republican strategist David Urban. They're, of course, both part of our CNN family, as political commentators.
We are also joined today by CNN political and global affairs analyst Barak Ravid. He interviewed President Trump by phone earlier today for "Axios".
And, Barak, thanks so much for being here.
I do want to start there because the president told you that the war would end soon. Can you walk us through your understanding of what he means today? Because the timelines have been shifting, the messaging has been shifting kind of all over the place.
BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: So, I think what we can see in the last few days since Monday is that President Trump started talking about ending the war, something he did not do before today. Again, he told me that the war will end soon. But when I asked him several times, he did not go into specific timelines. He said, the war will end when I decide it ends. He said that practically all of the targets in Iran have been destroyed already. So, he gave all the signals that he wants to end it.
On the other hand, when I spoke to Israeli and U.S. officials who are involved in the fighting they all told me we did not get any direct that the war will end soon, that we need to make preparations for wrapping it up. And all these Israeli and U.S. officials I talked to talk at least about another two weeks maybe three weeks of strikes on Iran. So, I think that when president Trump says soon, it doesn't -- it does not necessarily mean imminently or in a few days.
But we always have to remember that President Trump before several times when he made a decision it was abrupt. And he did something very quickly. The 12-Day War in last June with the 12-Day War with Iran, Trump decided to end it and ended it within 24 hours. So, I think I'm not ruling out such a scenario. But for now, it doesn't seem to me that it's something that will happen in the next few days.
HUNT: Barak, you talked to, as you mentioned, officials here in the United States, in Israel as well, do you think, based on your reporting, that the United States and Israel are still in lockstep in this war with Iran.
RAVID: I think in general, yes. But there are different objectives. And both Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth both made it clear that there are different objectives, that Israel has its own objectives and, and the targets that it strikes. And the U.S. has its own objectives and the targets that it strikes.
And I think it's clear that when it comes to the Israelis, for Netanyahu, regime change in Iran is front and center. This is why the -- he went to war. This is what he wants to achieve for the U.S. I think it could be a bonus definitely. But its not an objective that without it, the war cannot end.
HUNT: Yeah. Fair enough.
Jeff Zeleny, I mean, part of this, of course, is based on the politics here at home, which have gotten trickier by the day for the president.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: I mean, they have. And some of that is just the lack of, I think, explaining and preparing people for what was to come. I mean, you've just seen -- I mean, most of Republicans, most of the members of Congress have stuck with the president. I mean, there are some outliers from the outside. Joe Rogan is a recent example, and obviously, some other commentators as well but the unease underneath this support is pretty strong here.
And I think the big reason for that is just a lack of a consistent message from the president. I mean, there has been just an on again/off again. It will end soon. Get ready for a fight.
So, it seems that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who's also the national security advisor, has been trying to kind of lead the president almost in in terms of setting out the objectives. But the president, virtually every time he speaks out loud, gives somewhat of a different rationale but also a time frame. So, it -- certainly, there is some unease, but up until now, most members of the House and Senate in his party are with him. And that is -- but that does not mean there's not consternation beneath the surface.
HUNT: Yeah.
ALEX THOMPSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: To add to Jeff's point -- I mean, behind the scenes, Republicans want this done sooner rather than later because they are worried about the politics of it.
HUNT: Yeah, and we're going to talk extensively about the Rogan comments later on in the show.
But, David Urban, one place where we have seen President Trump often move off of an otherwise hardened position is when the markets tell him he has to, right? I mean, we saw that with Greenland and the bond market when he was over in Davos. Do you think we're seeing that with gas prices?
DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think every president is judged by gas prices. Grocery prices, right? Prices are kind of the day-to-day poll, if you were, you know, to do it. And so, nobody wants to see increasing gas prices.
I would push back on that. If I were the president, I think I would come out and say, look this is going to be a short term. I wish he would come out and said this. This is going to be a short-term endeavor. We're engaged in here soon. It's going to be over soon. Whether it's three, four weeks, you know, five weeks. And prices will become stable again and the alternative is they would be sky high at some point in the future when you have if you had a nuclear armed Iran holding the entire region hostage, right?
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And so, I think if he presented a, you know a picture of what is and what could have been if we don't take this action, I think people in America might be more willing. And he may -- he may -- he may still end up doing that and have to try to explain it a little bit more. I think the American people would be completely willing to pay short term price increases, knowing it was going to end at some point, right?
But the lack of definition in terms of when it's going to end, how it's going to end, if it's going to drag on you know, we fought 21 year wars in Afghanistan right? There was a one-year appropriation every year for another year. I don't think you're going to see that here, but I think people want more specificity if they're given more specificity, I think they're willing to stick with it a little bit longer.
XOCHITL HINOJOSA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: But I don't think Americans trust Trump on affordability anymore. He said this during tariffs at the beginning of last year. I think part of his message was you're going to see a lot. You're going to see prices go up the grocery store. But it's okay. For the long term, this is helpful for the economy.
That's a similar message he's saying out there gas prices gone up. I think that if he is lowered prices overall, the American people would have that trust. But I don't think he has that trust with the American people. And I think that Congress is sticking with him for now. But as soon as more American lives are at risk, and as soon as those gas prices do not go down, and also, if airline flights go up in price as well, because of the price of oil, I do think Congress and there will be some members in tough districts who will have to speak out against the president and that might be when he ends the war when it is no longer politically feasible for him to continue with the war.
URBAN: But I just think again, so, Xochitl, would you say -- if you're -- if you're -- if you're the president, you say Americans, would you rather a nuclear armed Iran, people who are exporting terror around the globe -- would you be willing to pay a little bit more, so we don't have to deal with that? Would you be willing to pay a little bit more for your trip to see your -- to vacation this summer, so that we don't have to be held hostage by a regime, which is time and time again proved that is out to kill Americans, whether it's Bill Burns, the, you know, the station chief in Beirut, the Americans in Lebanon or soldiers in Afghanistan getting killed with IEDs?
This regime has continued to kill Americans for 50 years. And it has to be --
HUNT: I mean, David, you're making a great pitch, but the White House --
HINOJOSA: That's exactly what I was going to say.
URBAN: Well, I'm --
HINOJOSA: Exactly what --
URBAN: I'm channeling -- where -- where am I?
HINOJOSA: I nominate fake me, I nominate you --
URBAN: Americans, like hang with us, right? This is a -- this is a noble cause, which we're engaged in.
HUNT: But the president's not saying that.
URBAN: Well, I am saying, hang with us, Americans.
HUNT: Like what --
ZELENY: President Urban.
HUNT: Is it remarkable, Alex, like political -- I mean, it's -- whatever you think about the mission itself -- I mean, the straight up failure to do the politics the right way here.
THOMPSON: It's larger pattern of this Trump 2.0 which in some ways you get the sense that he does not feel the obligation to do the politics because he won reelection. He is not going to run for another term and so he is not making the pitch. He did not say anything similar to you not just before the attacks on Iran, but after as well.
And I think it sort of speaks to a larger pattern of this feeling of invincibility within the core Trump crew in the White House, where they feel like they don't have to do the politics.
ZELENY: And there's a growing sign that some administration officials and maybe the president or cabinet secretaries were taken off guard by some of this and I think that is probably the more alarming thing, that not knowing that some of these things were happening, the president said today, oh, they have a big navy. I mean, so it was kind of an offhand comment, but I think just not being a fully abreast of what could happen is a little troubling.
HUNT: Yeah. Barak Ravid, I'm just watching our text chain here and Josh Rogan notes that, you know, Donald Trump, the president he can't just call off the war, doesn't work that way. The enemy gets a vote. I mean many an American president has promised a short, you know, short term pain for long term gain only to find us stuck in a war that is really difficult to get out of.
I mean, what do you think the possibility is that this is going to turn into one of those things?
RAVID: I think it's a real possibility because the what the Iranians are telling -- whoever is calling them and asking them if they're willing to go for a ceasefire they say, no. They say, we don't want a ceasefire. We want an end to the war and guarantees that this will not be just a cessation of hostilities so that just in six months, the U.S. and Israel will come again and attack us.
And the Iranians are saying we're not going to stop at the moment. We're going to continue. If the Israelis and the U.S. want to stop, that's their business. We're going to continue until we get our terms, which is number one thing is getting real guarantees that this is an end to the war and not just a time out.
HUNT: All right. Very quick last word.
URBAN: Real quickly, to Barak's point. Great. We give him a time out then they just cheat again. In six months, we stopped bombing them, right? So, the problem with the Iranian regime is that they can't be trusted. No inspectors. Right?
They flouted international law for 50 years to think that somehow if they say, okay, now we're going to the table, they can't be trusted.
HUNT: All right. Barak Ravid, thank you very much for your reporting. I really appreciate you spending some time with us today, sir. See you soon I hope.
The rest of our panel is going to stand by.
Coming up next here in THE ARENA, we're going to talk to a long time U.S. national security voice who served under every president dating back to George W. Bush. Ambassador Brett McGurk will be here live on set.
Plus, how the war in Iran is creating a potential parting of the Red Sea. Inside the growing divide between the president and some of the biggest voices in the MAGA movement.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
WHOOPI GOLDBERG,CO-HOST, "THE VIEW": There are tiny cracks appear, and people seem to be waking up going, who am I? Where have I been?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What did I do?
GOLDBERG: What did I do? You know?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HUNT: All right. Right now, we are learning more about that deadly strike on a girls elementary school in Iran. Two sources tell CNN that the preliminary findings of a military investigation indicate the U.S. accidentally struck the school, likely due to outdated information about a nearby Iranian naval base.
Joining us now to discuss, CNN global affairs analyst Brett McGurk, former Middle East and North Africa coordinator for the National Security Council.
Sir, thanks very much for being here. Really appreciate your time.
I want to talk first about this school, because these are preliminary findings here. Why do you think it's important for us to release this information? And what's the best way to be talking about this now?
BRETT MCGURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I think it's terrible. I think it's heartbreaking. I think we should be fully transparent on something like this from this preliminary finding that is just coming out now, it seems to be a parallel to the -- remember the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, that was based on old targeting information in which we actually struck the Chinese embassy back then, and the Kosovo operation.
So, tragic and awful, and I think it's good that now the U.S. government, the Pentagon, is coming out with the information. That's what they need to do.
HUNT: Let's talk a little bit about the timing of how long this may or may not continue, because, of course, the president told Barak Ravid at "Axios" as we were just discussing that it will end, quote/unquote, "soon". Can you explain how you see this timeline impacting whether or not this is ultimately something that turns out to be a net positive for American security?
MCGURK: So, in the second week, I think any -- any aspiration, this might lead to regime change, Kasie. I think that has now been really put by the wayside. So I think that is that was unlikely to begin with. And maybe there was some hope with that leadership strike in the beginning with the supreme leader. I think now, it's fairly clear the system in Tehran has consolidated.
And we have to see. We don't know exactly what's going on, but it seems that way. So, what's happening now, as I see it, is CENTCOM is basically executing what was the Iran war plan.
So, they are taking apart methodically Iran's defense industrial base, everything to produce missiles, to produce drones. It's command and control. The navy, the air force and if you run through that entire target set, which is going to be a period of weeks, I think the White House early on said four to six weeks. That's about right.
And we're in the second week. If you can complete that mission, then you have significantly degraded Iran's ability to project power outward. That would be important. I mean, they're -- their missile capability, Kasie, since 2015 has just exponentially gone from a conventional threat to really strategic balance of power. Game changer, not only in the Middle East, but also globally.
The Iran war is sustained with Iranian technology. For all those drones. That was a deal that was done in 2023. We try to cross administrations through sanctions, through diplomacy, to try to get at this problem. The missile -- the expansion of the missile program, and it failed. So, if you can reduce that military capacity, you'll have a much weaker Iran. I think you'll have to keep containment, kind of like maybe Iraq in the late '90s. So, if you can get to that point, you could make the case. You have a weaker Iran, you have a better, a better, more sustainable regional situation.
But to get from here to there will be very difficult because Iran has a vote in this. And I think they believe they have President Trump by the jugular and the Strait of Hormuz. So, like the Strait of Hormuz now is the cornerstone of kind of where this goes. We have to work to get that open. That is really hard work, Kasie.
I helped you know, build a coalition back in 2024 in the Red Sea when an Iranian group, the Houthis were using Iranian weapons to target ships, including our ships, going through another passageway called the Bab al-Mandab. About 10 percent of global shipping. It took weeks -- it takes a long time.
So, I -- look, President Trump has never faced something like this in his two terms as commander in chief. He's had these very, you know, short-term operations. Midnight Hammer, for example, in June --
HUNT: Yeah.
MCGURK: -- that was an operation, Kasie, that was prepared over multiple presidential administrations. It was refreshed -- we refreshed it in the Biden administration at the end of the administration, kind of ready to go if a president ever needed it.
This is a much more complex endeavor, and it's going to need time.
HUNT: And if the president decides he can't take the political pain because of what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz, what then?
MCGURK: I think potentially you could be left in an even worse situation because you have a -- an embittered Iranian regime with hard lining, hardline -- liners, consolidating their authority. I think, Mojtaba Khamenei. And he hasn't been seen. We don't even have a written statement. The new supreme leader, he's a figurehead for the Revolutionary Guards.
[16:30:04]
Revolutionary Guards are very much in charge and they are consolidated. And if they are able to out of this, still have the apparatus of their military industrial base, and to reconstitute those capabilities, you could have an even worse situation.
And I know a lot of our regional partners did not want this. They felt that they weren't consulted going in. But now many of the view they are under attack and that this should be carried through at least to that -- to that conclusion point, militarily.
HUNT: All right. Brett McGurk, thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate the conversation. Hope you'll come back. All right. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, California Congressman
Kevin Kiley will be here live just days after his abrupt decision to leave the Republican Party. We'll talk about the present and future of his now former party, as the Iran war exposes a divide in MAGA world.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEVE BANNON, HOST, "BANNON'S WAR ROOM": This phrase "freedom isn't free", I think when you do wars like this, I don't -- I'm not so sure that's a -- I'm not so sure that's a phrase that resonates with people. I think we have to get very serious about this.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BANNON: This phrase "freedom isn't free", I think when you do wars like this, I don't -- I'm not so sure that's a -- I'm not so sure that's a phrase that resonates with people.
I'm not happy that were in it, but you're in it. So, you got to figure out how you have victory because victory is what matters here. It would be catastrophic for us to not have victory in this. And I realize that may rub some people the wrong way, but that -- I think that's just a hard reality, what we have to deal with.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Steve Bannon, who was MAGA before MAGA was a thing now just the latest voice in the movement to criticize President Trump over the war in Iran. He now joins a list that includes Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, just to name a few who've been openly critical of this war. And the president's decision to start it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE ROGAN, PODCAST HOST: But just seems so insane based on what he ran on. I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on no more wars and these stupid, senseless wars. And then we have one that we can't even really clearly define why we did it.
MEGYN KELLY, HOST, "THE MEGYN KELLY SHOW": Being a conservative or being a Trump supporter, or being part of MAGA does not mean you have to accept another Middle East war without questions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: So, these cracks in the MAGA sphere come at a time for Republicans who, at least based on polls and history were already in a pretty tricky position for the midterms even before this war was started. And now, well, see for yourself these headlines, all just from the
last 24 hours. "The New York Times" quote, "Trump's war in Iran and rising gas prices collide with midterm agenda." "The Wall Street Journal": Many Republicans worry rising gas prices could complicate midterms.
The list goes on. And it's all anyone was asked about at the GOP retreat this week,
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. MARK ALFORD (R-MO): I'm willing to pay 30 percent or 30 cents more at the pump to make sure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon that's going to hit the United States.
REP. DALE STRONG (R-AL): People a little frustrated with the increased price of oil and gas. That's to be expected. But again, this is war.
REP. RICHARD HUDSON (R-NC): Long term, you're going to see lower gas prices because Iran can't threaten the rest of the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. My panel is back.
David Urban, I mean, I guess --
URBAN: Those guys are channeling me. I think I -- they sounded like I was -- I was --
HUNT: I mean, there's a significant chunk of people here who are actually looking at the president saying, hey, were with you because you ran on not starting new wars in the Middle East.
URBAN: Yeah. Look, I think there's a distinct difference between what's going on right now. And again, I'll point back to Afghanistan, where we operated under authorization, use of military force that was passed in 2001, right? I mean, there was no clear purpose of what we were doing in Afghanistan year after year after year. You couldn't articulate any clear fashion. Here, whether the White House is doing a good job at it or not. There is a nuclear armed Iran, which is threatening the region, which is threatening the United States, which is cannot be left to exist.
The deal that the Obama administration cut and trying to, you know, trade money for postponement of a nuclear program just wasn't working. And so, there is a clear objective, clearly defined.
HUNT: But timing --
URBAN: This administration got to do a better deal --
HUNT: -- was a choice.
URBAN: The timing is a choice and I'm not quite sure exactly why they did it. I'm not privy to the intel. Maybe it was because there was this gathering of, you know, the 40 top leaders at one time that doesn't occur ever -- you know, and they had to do it. So I'm not quite certain, but I do believe that in the long run, that the U.S., the world is going to be better off. I think the administration just needs a better job of explaining why they had to do it now.
HUNT: Jeff?
ZELENY: There's no doubt there is a difference between the outside voices who are being critical of this and the members of Congress. I mean, we'd be very hard pressed Manu would be working his tail off to talk to every single Republican member would not find as many who openly oppose it as the Joe Rogans do.
However, that does not mean that the difference in the questions aren't real, and I think what the Republicans I speak to are looking at real, tangible things like the rising cost of fertilizer, for example, because of this -- gas prices, diesel prices.
So as this goes on, if this goes on, there could be real sort of issues here. I think the biggest thing also is a Republican enthusiasm question. I mean, if people sort of lose the will, I guess or the desire to support the president, that could be an issue. But again, I think right now, we should be very clear Republicans on the Hill largely support it.
[16:40:05]
Outside voices do not. But we don't know where this is going to go.
HUNT: The outside voices aren't accountable to voters, right? I mean, if Donald Trump goes out there criticizes --
ZELENY: Joe Rogan and Megyn Kelly and others -- public opinion --
URBAN: There's a little bit of lag, right? So, the Rogans of the world dry public opinion. And then those congressional districts hear that and they react, right? And so, if you see Richard Hudson hearing it from his constituents, his tune may change, right? But elections are still the midterms are still seven months away -- seven months away.
HINOJOSA: A lot of time with a terrible approval rating.
URBAN: Seven months away is a long enough that Americans forget things in 30 seconds, let alone seven months.
HUNT: I mean, if this goes well, sure, it might be forgotten. But if were still in Iran in seven months, I mean, that's a much different thing.
URBAN: I think we will not be there in seven months.
HINOJOSA: Well --
HINOJOSA: Even if we're not there, the prices overall is what -- that's what Americans care about. And if they can't -- if everything that Trump is doing and all his policies end up in higher costs at the end of the day, that is bad for Republicans. And when we're talking about his base and you talked about those cracks at the start of your segment, yes, there were cracks with the Epstein files, and they're still facing, you know, some sort some criticism from their base on the handling of the Epstein files.
We still are going to see Pam Bondi go up to the Hill. She's been subpoenaed to figure out exactly what happened there, the mishandling. And now they have this war situation. So, it seems like overall even if they had enthusiasm, maybe about six, eight months ago in their base is it now -- is it still there? Given all of these various pieces and they were banking on that for some of their support?
URBAN: Again, I think it's incumbent upon the administration to explain higher costs, national security. Do you sleep better at night? Would you be willing to pay 30 cents more a gallon for gas? I think that needs to be explained and fleshed out much more. I think the American people are smart. They would trade that but needs to be explained.
And I do think, you know, the question of when you put your pocket, you put your hand in your pocket take 20 bucks out to pump your gas and pay for pizza for your kids. People make those decisions.
ZELENY: They like to have 20 bucks.
URBAN: Well, you're not going to fill your entire tank or get a whole pizza. One of the two.
HUNT: Let's watch, Alex Thompson, what Rand Paul had to say about this as we continue this conversation about the midterms and whether this is going to matter. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. RAND PAUL (R-KY): I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action, people don't want to call it war. If there's still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you're going to see a disastrous election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Alex?
THOMPSON: A lot of Democrats, I can tell you very much agree with Rand Paul, which is not usually what they -- what they say.
There's a feeling that even if you were to make the case of -- well, it's worth 30 cents extra per gallon because to take out the Iranian regime, a lot of Democrats and some Republicans privately don't believe that's a convincing argument. We live in an era especially post-COVID, where voters are hyper transactional and very concerned about the affordability of living. And it is not clear that having high gas prices, no matter the reason, is a convincing argument for voters.
HUNT: Yeah, I mean, Xochitl, it is also potentially one of those situations where kind of as -- as Alex describes where you really could see the sort of wave level here change dramatically. And I think part of that is potentially because, and David, I'm interested in your perspective on this too, like Donald Trump's not on the ballot in this midterm election, right?
I mean, and Democrats had to deal with this when Barack Obama wasn't on the ballot, right? And there were voters who were willing to get out there and vote for him, who just didn't really care to show up at other times. And we saw it as well with Trump the first time around.
HINOJOSA: Well, I also think that this is why Democrats are playing in places that they've never competed in before, you know? And they see an opportunity where they haven't seen before in decades where they believe that the Trump's approval rating is so low that this is going to end up benefiting them. And so, I do think in the long run, I mean, I don't -- I think Alex is completely right. If people don't necessarily see prices coming down, Republicans aren't going to be voting for.
HUNT: All right. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, from Republican to independent, to here in THE ARENA -- California Congressman Kevin Kiley will be here live.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:48:38]
HUNT: All right. Welcome back.
President Trump right now just started speaking in Kentucky. He is trying to sell his economic message ahead of the November midterms, a message that some Republicans worry could be muddled by a prolonged war with Iran.
Back on Capitol Hill, the House speaker, Mike Johnson, is watching in real time as his razor thin Republican majority collides head on with the midterms. Johnson's margin for error continuing to shrink this week after Congressman Kevin Kiley announced he'll be leaving the Republican Party to run as an independent in a tough reelection fight. The California congressman, who says he does still intend to caucus with Republicans, so that's a sigh of relief for Johnson, was essentially redrawn out of his original district by a California redistricting measure passed last year.
And joining us now in THE ARENA, independent Congressman Kevin Kiley from California.
Congressman, thank you very much for being here. And I am anxious to talk to you about your decision on your political affiliation.
But I do want to touch first on some of this new reporting. The California governor, Gavin Newsom, said today that he's aware of an FBI warning that Iran could target the state of California with retaliatory drone strikes. Is there anything you can tell us about that potential warning, and what would you say to Californians who are taking that in right now?
[16:50:00]
REP. KEVIN KIELY (I-CA): Yeah, well, clearly, it's something we have to take very seriously. You know, this is within the category of threats that I think the state and federal and local authorities, you know, have prepared for, for some time. Obviously, we're in a heightened threat environment right now. And I know that the state is working with the office of emergency services to ensure that all local authorities are entirely prepared.
I do think this is a reason, as well, that we need to get a bipartisan deal done on the homeland security bill, because we absolutely need to have all the resources we possibly can at our disposal amidst this heightened threat environment
HUNT: Fair enough. So, let's move on to talk about what you decided to do which has become one of just a handful of independent members of Congress, although important to underscore, you have said that you plan to conference with the Republican Party. The president endorsed you back in 2022.
He said this, quote, "He doesn't wait for a fight like the do nothing RINOs who have watched California get absolutely destroyed by the radical maniacs in Sacramento. Kevin is going to be a MAGA champion in Congress."
Now, I understand that you are an independent. You've left the Republican Party. Do you still consider yourself a MAGA champion?
KILEY: Well, those are not my words. Those were the president's words.
He did say something in there about how no one had fought Gavin Newsom harder than I have. And that part, I will say is, is accurate in the sense that I have focused a lot on trying to build a coalition for common sense in California. Republicans independents and Democrats to try to lower the cost of living in this state, lower homelessness, lower crime. And that's the approach I've taken in Congress as well, is that I've tried to be an independent voice for my district.
You know, I've certainly crossed party lines on many occasions, both in terms of, you know, opposing some things that others that were in my party supported, but also working on constructive solutions to problems facing our country.
But, you know I actually see, you know, the moment were in right now of one where part of the ship has run absolutely amok, out of control you look at this gerrymandering war that you mentioned, you know, this is sort of the ultimate example of it that elevates partisanship above everything else in our politics.
And so, you know, this is my way of saying, look, the antidote to this is to simply take partisanship out of the equation and so that's what I'm doing. And, you know, I think that this is really in line with the approach I've always had, which is that I answer to my constituents. I don't answer to party leaders.
HUNT: Would it help you to have President Trump come campaign for you in the fall?
KILEY: I don't know if that's planned. I you know, I would take, you know support from any quarter in which it comes because I'm planning on getting the support of Republicans, Democrats and independents which is what I've always done when I've run. In fact, in the last election I had, I believe the third most crossover votes of any candidate in a competitive race in the country, meaning that people voted one way for president and voted another way for the house.
So, you know, of course I'll be asking for the support from Republicans as well as Democrats and independents. And I think that that is in line with the way that I've delivered for our district. You know when you look at the things that I've really prioritized protecting Lake Tahoe, getting funding for roads and highways in our district, getting funding for law enforcement.
You know, these are not things that people see through a partisan lens. It's about serving our communities and protecting our quality of life.
HUNT: But for you and for in this new district that your campaigning in, which is, of course going to be a tough a tougher one than the situation you had facing you before. Is President Trump simply toxic?
KILEY: Sorry? I -- say it again?
HUNT: Is President Trump toxic in this midterm in your new district?
KILEY: Oh, well, I mean, certainly, there are people in my district who support the president and there are people who oppose the president. And it's my job to be a representative for all of them. You know, I don't really think that your job description in Congress is to serve people based upon what party they are or what they think about anyone else. It's your job to serve everyone.
And so I've -- and that's the approach I've taken in Congress as well. I've sponsored a number of bipartisan measures. I worked with Sam Liccardo, for example, to try to extend these expiring ACA subsidies. I was the only person on our side who was really there in D.C. during the government shutdown, trying to get things back open.
And so for me, you know, that question of how people view the parties or view the president or what have you, you know, that's not my focus. My focus is on serving the entirety of my district.
HUNT: Fair enough. Did you vote for the president?
KILEY: I did, yes.
HUNT: You did. And is there anything that's happened in the beginning of this first term that makes you regret that vote or question whether you should have voted for him?
KILEY: Well, you know, just like during the Biden administration, I pushed back in areas where I disagree and I work with the administration in areas where I agree. And so, you know, one area that I've been very frustrated about, for example, is the way that funding for fire protection and forest management has been held up, in particular, by the Department of Homeland Security.
[16:55:05]
HUNT: Yeah.
KILEY: And so, I questioned Secretary Noem about this. I -- you know, in a -- in a -- and made it very clear that this was unacceptable. It was an issue of confidence that my constituents weren't being well served by her department. And she was dismissed the next day.
I was also one of only a few people who -- you know, opposed or supported reclaiming the houses authority when it comes to tariffs and trade policy and then voted to end the emergency on which the Canada tariffs were based. But on the other hand, you know, I work with the administration very closely to get a $22.5 million highway grant. I was, you know, an author of the Lake Tahoe Restoration Reauthorization Act, which was signed into law by President Biden.
So that's the approach I'll continue to take. You know, I'll push back where I disagree, and I'll work with the administration where I agree.
HUNT: All right. Congressman Kevin Kiley, I'm so sorry. We're out of time. Thank you very much. I really appreciate it.
KILEY: You bet. Thanks for having me.
HUNT: We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HUNT: All right. Thank you so much for being with us today.
Don't go anywhere. "THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER" starts right now.
