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CNN's The Arena with Kasie Hunt
White House Declares "Victory" In Iran Amid Shaky Ceasefire; Just In: Vance Says There Are Signs Iran is Coming To War Negotiating Table "Seriously", But Also Signs Of "Bravado"; Ceasefire In Iran Shaky As Israel Escalates Strikes On Lebanon & Tehran Claims It's Closing Strait of Hormuz. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired April 08, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS & POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: -- the direct impact not just at the pump but on these companies who are having to make major decisions about these price increases.
[16:00:08]
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: All right. Vanessa Yurkevich, thank you so much.
And THE ARENA WITH KASIE HUNT starts right now
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.
KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Hi, everyone. Welcome to THE ARENA. I'm Kasie Hunt. It's great to have you with us on this Wednesday.
Right now, the Trump administration is declaring victory despite an increasingly fragile ceasefire, and just one day after Donald Trump threatened to end Iranian civilization.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is a victory for the United States of America that the president, in our incredible military, made happen.
PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital V military victory.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Across the Middle East, the ceasefire announced last night is being tested amid public disagreement over just what was in the agreement. And this morning, Israel launched its largest attack yet on Lebanon since the beginning of this latest round of fighting, insisting that its fight with Hezbollah is separate from the ceasefire with Iran.
In response, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened a, quote, "regret inducing response", end quote. In response, Iranian media outlets are reporting that the vital Strait of Hormuz is once again closed to oil tankers.
The White House today insisting those reports are simply untrue.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEAVITT: That is completely unacceptable. And again, this is a case of what they're saying publicly is different. Privately, we have seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today. And I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely. That is his expectation. It has been relayed to him privately that that is what's taking place in these reports publicly are false.
So long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open with no limitations or delays, these extraordinarily sensitive and complex negotiations will take place behind closed doors over the course of the next two weeks.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: The White House today also announced that Vice President J.D. Vance will lead the U.S. delegation to negotiate with Iran in Pakistan, with the first talks set to begin on Saturday morning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we can make an agreement. If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if they're going to try to prevent even the fragile truce that we've -- we've set up from taking place, then they're not going to be happy. They're going to find out that the president of United States is not one to mess around.
He's impatient. He's impatient to make progress. He has told us to negotiate in good faith. And I think if they negotiate in good faith, we will be able to find a deal. That's a big if. And ultimately, it's up to the Iranians how they negotiate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Let's get off the sidelines, head into THE ARENA. My panel is here.
We're also joined by CNN senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes and CNN chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward, who is standing by in Saudi Arabia.
But, Kristen, let me start with you to set the stage, because we know that the NATO secretary general is at the White House for this critical meeting with President Trump. What are you hearing?
KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, that meeting is happening behind closed doors. And just to give you an indication of what might be happening, Karoline Leavitt said that it is entirely possible that President Trump would discuss withdrawing from NATO in this meeting because he was so unhappy with the way that our NATO allies handled this situation.
That's, of course, not a secret. President Trump has repeatedly said that he believes NATO is a paper tiger. They should have come to the rescue of the United States. They should have helped reopen the strait, that they came too late.
And they issued a statement, they being the White House on behalf of President Trump, just saying how disappointed he was in NATO.
Now, I will say, even though Karoline Leavitt said the two men were going to have a very frank conversation, we also do know that President Trump has a very close relationship with Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, and they have had nothing but warm relations between the two of them. So, we'll see how this actually plays out. Rutte seems to have a real understanding of how to negotiate or work with President Trump.
I do want to go back to what you just noted about Lebanon and this agreement, the ceasefire agreement, and where the terms seem to differ, because, of course, you have Iran, you have Pakistan saying that Lebanon was part of the ceasefire. Now you have Israel and the United States saying it wasn't. Karoline Leavitt doubling down on that.
Now, interestingly, we just heard from Vice President Vance on this very topic, saying essentially that the Israelis may check themselves a little bit when it comes to Lebanon and that they're not doing it because it's part of the ceasefire, but instead because they want these negotiations to be successful.
Now, our Kevin Liptak is traveling with the vice president and asked some questions on the ceasefire, as well as President Trump's rhetoric, i.e., wiping out an entire civilization.
[16:05:01]
Listen to the vice president on that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VANCE: I encourage the Iranians to come to the table, seriously. We've seen some signs that they're going to do that. We've seen some signs of bravado.
Fundamentally, we're in a good spot. They're reopening the straits. We have a ceasefire. And frankly, if they break their end of the bargain, then they're going to see some serious consequences.
REPORTER: Well, wiping them off the map is different than an economic leverage or military leverage. Why is that kind of language useful in this kind of scenario?
VANCE: Well, again, the president of the United States is saying that unless the Iranians do the right thing, he is going to have some serious consequences for the regime. We obviously don't want the people of Iran to suffer, but we have a lot of leverage the president of United States could use, and it's why I think it's so important for the Iranians to be negotiators in good faith.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: And I will say, you know, I spoke to a White House official literally just moments ago. I got off the phone, and they told me that when President Trump was using that rhetoric, it made them deeply uncomfortable. But now that it seemed as though there was a ceasefire in place, it could be seen as positive, because President Trump is saying that that is what led to the ceasefire
HUNT: All right. Thank you for that, Kristen.
Clarissa, the White House is saying that Lebanon is not a part of this ceasefire deal, as Kristen kind of walked us through there. But we have been seeing these Israeli strikes across Beirut. I mean, what are you experiencing in the region? How do you interpret the Iranian response to all this?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think what a difference a day makes. At the beginning of today, Kasie, there was a palpable sense of relief across the region, particularly here in the Gulf. But now, there are very real concerns about whether or not this ceasefire can possibly survive, given the strains being put on it.
You heard the he said/she said about whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal or not. Iran, for its part, is certainly making it clear that it believes that Lebanon is part of the deal. We have heard from the IRGC that if Israel does not desist from these attacks on Lebanon, that they will retaliate against Israel. That, of course, then will lead to a further unraveling.
And it's also important to remember that throughout the course of today, despite the ceasefire, just about holding, there have been regular drone and missile strikes on the UAE. Here in Saudi Arabia, the primary artery for exporting oil now, the East-West pipeline, a pumping station, came under attack. And so, there are increasingly concerns that this is all heading in a bad direction.
We also heard just in the last couple of hours, Kasie, from Mohammad Ghalibaf, he is effectively the primary interlocutor between the U.S. and Iran. He's the speaker of Iran's parliament, a former IRGC commander, and he basically laid out in a post on X what he views as three major violations of the ceasefire agreement so far. He talked about Israel's actions in Lebanon. He talked about a drone that had entered Iranian airspace, and he talked about what he called denials of Iran's right to enrichment.
Now, when Vice President Vance was asked about Ghalibaf's post, it was interesting because he was really trying to put a positive spin on it. Getting into semantics, implying that maybe Ghalibaf's English wasn't very good, that if he only disagreed with three of the ten points or the 15 points, depending on which set of points were talking about, that that was actually positive and kept emphasizing this idea that the situation is effectively in a good place and that the momentum is there. That will be reassuring to some in the gulf who do desperately want to
see this ceasefire continue, because their fear is that if America up sticks and leaves, they will be the ones left to deal with the fallout of an unstable and emboldened Iran -- Kasie.
HUNT: Absolutely. All right, Clarissa Ward for us in Saudi Arabia -- Clarissa, thank you very much for that.
All right. My panel is here in THE ARENA. CNN special correspondent Jamie Gangel; congressional at "The Washington Post", Marianna Sotomayor; CNN political commentator Xochitl Hinojosa; and Republican strategist Kevin Madden.
Welcome to all of you.
Kevin, welcome to THE ARENA. It's your first trip here. And of course --
KEVIN MADDEN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: It's great to be here.
I'm glad you finally overruled Jamie Gangel's objections to ever having me.
HUNT: To let you come on? I know, I know, what are we going to do?
It's been a long a lot has happened since I was covering the Romney campaign. And you were working on it, not least that we now have the president who had threatened to end the civilization, announces this deal shortly after midnight overnight. And now we're sitting here at 4:00 Eastern Time. And it's unclear how it's going to hold together or not.
I mean, who do you believe in this? The administration, the Iranians? That seems to be one of the persistent threads here.
MADDEN: Well, the challenge here is you don't know who to believe. Like I want to trust my own government. And I want the -- I want to be able to trust the information coming out of the White House, as an American.
[16:10:03]
I think that's one of the challenges that this administration will continue to have as they -- as they litigate this military engagement, this war, is they have to really in order to sort of build the public support the public support on Capitol Hill with their congressional allies, as well as support amongst constituencies among the American public. They have to square the reality on the ground with the reality -- and do that with a certain high level of clarity.
What's their objective? What do they want to achieve? How do they plan to do it?
And I think that's been a big challenge, is that we've been going hour by hour on a lot of the different information flows, and that's created a little bit of tension. So, I'm hopeful. But this is -- this is what happens in very difficult
situations. And I'm hopeful that the White House and its allies on Capitol Hill can continue to sort of get on that same page and be able to do that.
HUNT: Jamie Gangel, what is your latest reporting and understanding around all of this?
JAMIE GANGEL, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: So, to Kevin's point, and I never, ever wouldn't want you here.
(LAUGHTER)
GANGEL: I think the question we have to really ask today is, do we actually have a ceasefire? If you ask the neighbors in the Gulf, as Clarissa was pointing out today, there were dozens of drones and missile attacks. Kuwait, 28, UAE, 17 ballistic missiles, 35 drone attacks. They're not feeling much of a ceasefire.
If you have a disagreement about whether Lebanon is part of this framework or not, is that a ceasefire? Iran still controlling the Strait of Hormuz, by the way, it's -- it's not open. Whatever the White House says, it's not open.
So, I think -- let's see what happens in the next 48 hours. Let's see if tankers and ships start moving through. But saying there's a crossfire -- a ceasefire doesn't mean there's a ceasefire.
XOCHITL HINOJOSA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yeah, that's absolutely right. I think that one thing that we're seeing from this White House, you're absolutely right, is the American people just want the facts. They want real information and they're not getting it. And what is interesting about all of this, the fact that they don't know whether Lebanon is part of a ceasefire, just shows a lack of leadership and that this is amateur hour at the White House in any other administration, something as clear as who is part of the ceasefire is just the basics. Like when you were trying to negotiate something like this.
So, the fact that there is also confusion about whether the strait is even open, that is a major deal. That is implications here in the United States. And the fact that the White House is either, A, lying from the podium, or B does not know the answer about whether the strait is open is also problematic.
And so, all of these just further shows why the American people, they don't trust this war. And now you're also having people on the right who are increasingly angry about this.
HUNT: Yeah. We're going to talk about that a little bit later in the show.
I mean, Marianna, what are you hearing from particularly Republican members of Congress? I mean, let's start with the baseline that I think there is a hope among many people on each side of the aisle that whatever is going on is successful, right, for the United States. But there's a significant degree of skepticism. What are you picking up about the ceasefire?
MARIANNA SOTOMAYOR, CONGRESSIONAL REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Yeah, you mentioned the word hope. That is what I hear mostly from Republicans. They're really hoping that what the administration is saying is accurate. They're really hoping that this ends soon.
And, Kevin, you mentioned the congressional allies, the fact that Republicans even have to hope is a little bit of a problem because they're -- they have been asking for more information from the administration. What is going to happen next? What is the next move?
What exactly should we be if we have to pass the supplemental, sending money to. Why are we going to put boots on the ground?
These are all questions that Republicans and Democrats, of course, are having. They are not here. And here's the thing, when they come back so far, there is no talk about Republicans maybe investigating opening. They hold the gavels. They can investigate, ask more of these questions.
Democrats, I'm hearing might start holding shadow hearings, but there's only so much you can find out when you don't have subpoena power. But there are Republicans who genuinely want to know what happens next, and the fact that they don't have that. The fact that even some leaders haven't really been briefed, it's a little bit of a problem.
HUNT: Well, I mean, and, Kevin, isn't it a cliche at this point to say that hope is not a strategy?
MADDEN: Yeah, that's --
(LAUGHTER)
MADDEN: That's a phrase I live by.
(LAUGHTER)
But I'll tell you what? I mean, look, I worked up on Capitol Hill during -- when we had the Iraq war and we had a huge majorities. We had a lot of public support. And we also had a very consistent line of communication with congressional leaders up there and the White House. And it was still very difficult to keep the decision-making structure in place.
So, can you imagine where we have none of that right now existing, how difficult it is?
[16:15:02]
So, it's -- it really is a huge challenge for the -- for the administration.
HUNT: Yeah. Jamie Gangel, I want to touch on -- we know that the NATO secretary general is at the White House right now. The meeting is behind closed doors. But here was Karoline Leavitt today at the podium talking about NATO,
because of course, president didn't get their buy in ahead of this right now. He's trying to convince them to help him out.
Let's watch what she said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEAVITT: I understand the questions about the presidents rhetoric, but what the president cares most about is results. And in fact, his very tough rhetoric and his tough negotiating style is what has led to the result that you are all witnessing today.
The world should take his word very seriously and understanding that the president is always most interested in results
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: She, of course, said that they failed, right? That NATO failed in a test that the president gave to them. Where do you think things stand right now between the president and our European allies?
GANGEL: So, I would guess our allies would say we failed in in all of this at the beginning. This is why you build a coalition before been through -- through that once before. I think everyone feels they are on very shaky ground. And I would add that Vladimir Putin is probably watching all this and saying he couldn't have planned it any better.
HUNT: Yeah, Xochitl, for Democrats here. I mean, there clearly is this push overall to try to call for impeachment of the president to use the 25th Amendment. I mean, when you think about that from a strategic perspective, I mean, clearly were at a new level, a new place with President Trump in terms of his rhetoric and the way he's positioning things. But I think we also saw that impeachment was not a politically smart strategy for Democrats.
Do you think it is in this moment?
HINOJOSA: I think that Congress is in a very difficult situation in that there is no other way to hold this president accountable than impeachment. And what I mean by that is the Supreme Court ruled that the president has full immunity. They said that it is only Congress who can hold him accountable for what he said about wiping out an entire civilization. That threat is a war crime in itself. There is no one to hold the president accountable. There is no one to stop the president.
The reason that the president feels the way he did and able to say something like that is because the Supreme Court allowed for that. He feels like there are no restrictions whatsoever in anything that he can do. And it is only Congress who can stop him.
So, if Republicans don't take action now, when it comes to this war, I absolutely think that you will see Democrats potentially try to impeach him, to potentially try to make moves to hold him accountable, because that's the only way to hold this president accountable. And he has gone beyond that, that I don't think it's about politics anymore. I think it is about saving our democracy at this point.
SOTOMAYOR: I think that could happen if the House changes majorities, because what I'm hearing from House Democrats now that it's not the right strategy, they really want lawmakers to focus on what the American people are talking about, which is still the economy.
And they also know that if you are going to impeach Trump, it really has to be that you have enough votes to do that. Yes, they're going to have to tamp down a lot of lawmakers who are calling for this now, but they really do see it as a waste of time.
GANGEL: I would just add, Republicans were really upset about his post on Sunday, that it was even by Trump's standards --
HUNT: The Easter Sunday vulgarity, shall we call it? Yeah. Very interesting.
All right. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, we're going to talk with a Democratic congressman, Seth Moulton. He is among the lawmakers calling for the cabinet to remove President Trump from office over his recent rhetoric on Iran. We'll ask him if this ceasefire is an example of the president offering an empty threat, or if it's the art of the deal.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GRIFF JENKINS, FOX NEWS HOST: Democrats are already saying that this is TACO, Trump always chickens out. Let me give you another acronym, NACHO, never avoids confronting hard obstacles. And that's exactly what President Trump did.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm hungry.
JENKINS: I made that up on my own.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:23:39]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEAVITT: What the president cares most about is results. And in fact, his very tough rhetoric and his tough negotiating style is what has led to the result that you are witnessing today. It was a very strong threat that led to results.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: The White House today defending President Trump's threat yesterday to wipe out Iranian civilization. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt arguing it was in fact that controversial threat that led to the fragile two-week ceasefire that is now underway.
Now joining me now is Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton of Massachusetts. He serves on the House Armed Services Committee and is an Iraq War veteran.
Congressman, thank you very much for joining us. Really appreciate you being back here.
And I want to start just by asking, do you think this ceasefire is a step in the right direction?
REP. SETH MOULTON (D-MA): Yes, it's a step in the right direction because there are really only two possible end games for this horrific war of choice that Trump got us involved in.
And one is to take over the entire country and really change the regime and make sure that you have peace going forward in Iran. Obviously, we're not going to do that. No one wants to do that. That would take hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops.
The only other option is to have some sort of negotiated agreement. And while this is definitely not the negotiated agreement we want, at the end of the day, it's a step in the right direction.
[16:25:01]
HUNT: Sir, do you believe the administration, when they insist that the reports are incorrect, that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as we've been hearing from some in the region?
MOULTON: Kasie, I don't believe the administration, when they say just about anything, because we've seen that they lie all the time and they've lied repeatedly about this war. I mean, imagine being that pilot who was shot down over Iran just 24 hours after the commander in chief, the president of the United States, said that we had eliminated all of their anti-aircraft capability.
So, this president can't even tell the troops the truth, let alone the rest of us. And the reality is that it's not surprising that Iran has maintained the strait being closed when they're not satisfied that the Israelis or the Americans are meeting their terms of the ceasefire.
HUNT: Sir, you this morning put out a post about this ceasefire. You said this, quote, temporary ceasefire or not, Trump already committed an impeachable offense. Congress needs to get back to work and remove him from office before he does more damage to our country and the world.
Now, of course, it's worth noting that the president did not follow through on the threat that he made to wipe out Iranian civilization. You still think that the post amounts to an impeachable offense?
MOULTON: I mean, add it to the long list of impeachable offenses. On top of all the just blatant corruption practiced by this president and his family, I mean, there's a reality here about whether or not an impeachment vote will actually get called. But on principle, do I think Donald Trump should be impeached? Absolutely.
And what was striking about yesterday was how many Republicans, how many conservatives, how many -- how many MAGA extreme Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene were saying that even by Donald Trump's standards, by the standards of someone who is, is incredibly senile, falling asleep in that speech that he gave a few nights ago, and clearly off his rocker, clearly out of touch with reality, that even by those low standards, he had reached -- he had just gone crazy.
That's what -- that's what we were hearing from even conservative Republicans. So, I think that's part of why this talk of impeachment has come up again, because, as you know, in the house, it's a very narrow margin. We would only need a few Republicans to come over and join Democrats in doing the right thing to uphold our Constitution, uphold our American values, and actually putting this president where he belongs.
HUNT: But the idea that a Republican House is going to undertake impeachment proceedings does not seem plausible. Am I hearing you say that you think it is?
MOULTON: I'm just saying that like, you know, if you're asking why when president Trump has clearly committed impeachable offenses for a long time, you know? I mean, he should have been impeached over, the corruption with the with the Qataris in this plane, for example, just to name one of many things that's happened, over the last several months. Why is the talk escalating or why was the talk escalating yesterday? I think it's because you even heard from conservative Republicans that this guy is truly crazy and dangerous, really dangerous. And I think it's when people think that he's actually dangerous, that you might get some Republicans willing to do the right thing in public, even though many of them say that, say that this guy is totally nuts behind the scenes.
HUNT: Do you think that running on this as Democrats writ large? I mean, I understand and you know, for viewers who may not be following your race closely when you're in a primary with a liberal in a liberal state, running against a progressive senator in Ed Markey, but Democrats are trying to take the house by winning back districts that are tougher for Democrats, swingey places than what you're looking at.
Do you think the message you have here today that the president should be impeached for all the reasons you just laid out, is one that House Democrats should take everywhere in America?
MOULTON: Look, I just think it's the truth. And I think that what people really want to hear these days is, is candidates who actually just tell the truth, who are just honest about how they think. And look, I honestly think that Donald Trump deserves to be impeached. And I'm not afraid to say that, but I think the bigger point that we need to figure out as a party is, is talking more about what we're for, as opposed to just what we're against.
You know, if you go to my website, I've got a lot of policy there. I'm very thick on policy because I think that everyone knows Democrats are opposed to Trump, but they don't know what else we stand for. And we've got to have an agenda.
Like I have a very aggressive affordability agenda. I have an immigration plan. I have a national security agenda. Like we should have plans for how we take on A.I.
You know, the senator that I'm running against, who's a very respectable man, he's a -- he's a good guy.
[16:30:01]
He's been elected longer than I've been alive and he doesn't have any policy on his website at all. So, all he says is I'm opposed to Trump and that's it. And I don't think that is a winning message, especially in the swing districts that we have to take back.
People want leadership because Americans are hurting. Americans are scared. I heard from many conservative Republicans yesterday, if you saw it on the Internet, who were scared by what the president was saying, and when you're scared, you want leadership, not just opposition, you want leadership. And I think that's what you're seeing from this new generation of Democrats that I'm proud to be a part of who are putting forward a positive agenda, in addition to being willing to fight Donald Trump.
HUNT: All right. Congressman Seth Moulton, thanks very much for your time today. I really appreciate it. Hope you'll come back.
MOULTON: Always good to see you, Katie.
HUNT: All right. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, the new reaction from the MAGA sphere and whether the ceasefire with Iran will also bring about a ceasefire between the president and some of the most vocal voices on the far right.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEVE BANNON, PODCAST HOST: We are not dealing with the problems in this nation, the problems in this nation do not exist in the streets of Tehran or with the Islamic theocracy running Iran. It's inside the wire here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:35:44]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALEX JONES, INFOWARS HOST: Iran has basically gotten everything at once in the agreement because Trump was desperate to open Strait of Hormuz. This is a huge black eye to the United States. I'm glad that Trump didn't engage in increased war crimes or, quote, "destroy entire civilization". But this thing, 39 days in, is a total and complete disaster. And we have been right about it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: President Trump's decision to launch the war with Iran divided some of his most loyal and vocal supporters. But today, voices from both sides of this argument among the right appear to be coming to an agreement over the ceasefire, in that the assessment seems to be it does not benefit the United States.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LAURA LOOMER, HOST, "LOOMER UNLEASHED": I am a die hard supporter of President Trump, but I'm not celebrating tonight. I don't think that this is good. I think that this actually further legitimizes the Islamic regime in Iran. I don't -- I think that they are now more legitimized than ever before, and they're more emboldened than ever before to continue oppressing the people in Iran and to continue attacking the United States of America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. My panel is back. But before I talk to them about this, I want to play one more person who you might recognize, talking about the language that the president used when he talked about wiping out an entire civilization in Iran. And that's Megyn Kelly.
Let's watch what she said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MEGYN KELLY, HOST, "THE MEGYN KELLY SHOW": I don't know about you, but I am sick of this shit. I'm just -- I'm sick of it. Can't he just behave like a normal human? I mean, honestly, like the president, I -- 3D chess.
Shut up. Fucking shut up about that shit. You don't threaten to wipe out an entire civilization. We're talking about civilians just casually in a social media post. This is completely irresponsible and disgusting.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Quite something. Who would like to take this one? Jamie Gangel.
(LAUGHTER)
GANGEL: When you lose Alex Jones, Laura Loomer and Megyn Kelly, it is not a good day for Donald Trump. I also think it's fascinating because we're also -- they're public figures, but also the MAGA base is angry and divided about this. They were angry that he got into the war. Now it seems they feel nothing was achieved.
We've always thought that Donald Trump would hold his base no matter what. I'm really interested when we face the midterms, will people stay home? Will this have an impact on those midterms?
HUNT: Kevin, where do you come down on this? Because there have been a number of different perspectives from the Republican that sits in your chair on this set every day, including some who argue that the Republican base is really more still traditional. What the Republican base has always been. They've been with the president, but they're actually more with him on Iran than some of these loud MAGA media voices that we hear.
What do you think?
MADDEN: Well, I think he has still has very strong support amongst his base. And he still commands and can mobilize his base very quickly. But does he -- is he -- is he losing a faction of it? Yes. And Megyn Kelly's sort of sentiment, if that's shared by 15, 20, 25 percent of that MAGA coalition, that's problematic when you're heading into a 2026 election environment where base motivation is a huge part of how you calculate victory, because if you add it in.
And also, one other thing I'd say is this didn't start with Iran. Second Amendment voters and Fourth Amendment voters because of what happened with the immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, they had a lot of sort of clamoring and sort of grumpiness with the president. So this is a sort of a little bit of a trend that the White House has to be very careful about, because also right now, if you look at the numbers with independents, we're going to be the swing part. And that's why they call them battleground districts.
That's, you know, the presidents support with those voters, which he actually did pretty well with in 2024, has been declining.
[16:40:06]
So there is a very real political calculation problem here that the White House is facing.
HINOJOSA: Yeah. And also, remember why Joe Biden won. Yes. We were in a pandemic. Yes. You know, the dynamics are very different.
At the same time, people just wanted a normal president. And what you heard from Megyn Kelly is a sentiment of a lot of Americans. They don't like the rhetoric. They a lot of Republicans just like say that's Trump being Trump. No, but now we are in a war and people believe that he is very dangerous.
Now, fast forward to 2028. He's not going to be on the ballot. But who is J.D. Vance? And J.D. Vance has had to go out and defend his every move. So what point does J.D. Vance see the polling and believe that -- how do I differentiate myself from Trump in a way that I can win but not alienate the MAGA base?
And I think that is going to be a really big problem for him over the next few years, because as soon as you distance yourself from Trump, Trump will lose it. He will not stand with J.D. Vance. He will start talking about Marco Rubio. Oh, maybe there should be somebody else. And that will be a difficult one.
HUNT: It was Marjorie Taylor Brown today in a post, right? Because green things turn brown when they I forget exactly his language but called her a traitor again.
I mean, to this point that she's making, Marianna, I mean, "The New York Times" in their sort of fascinating TikTok for this book that Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman are writing. They talked about what Vance was saying in the room, and they wrote this quote in front of his colleagues. Mr. Vance warned Mr. Trump that a war against Iran could cause regional chaos and an untold number of casualties, and that it could also break apart Mr. Trump's political coalition and would be seen as a betrayal by many voters who had bought into the promise of no new wars.
SOTOMAYOR: Yeah. I mean, he's actually understanding where the MAGA base is. I mean, we saw in 2024, it was all about America first, right? No new wars. And this is the complete opposite of that.
And you do see Vance and it's going to be interesting the next couple of hours. I think the next couple of days. He's part of these negotiations. He is at least positioning himself as the responsible person in the room, trying to have these conversations.
And if he is able to also claim victory, as he's obviously saying, you know, this is a victorious for Trump already. How does he move forward talking about foreign policy? And that's something he's going to have to contrast himself with when it comes to Marco Rubio, because he's another -- another contender, possibly in 2028.
HUNT: Yeah. Where are you, Kevin, today on the Vance-Rubio shadow primary and how it's going?
MADDEN: I'm where I always am at this period of the election, which is it's way too early to say.
HUNT: It's never too early. Come on.
MADDEN: It is early. I mean, I think I think well wait to election night 2026 to start handicapping where everybody is. And six months is a lifetime in politics. And so, we're still a little -- we still have a little ways to go.
HINOJOSA: Yeah, I do think that Democrats need to worry about Marco Rubio. I think that he is seen as a more moderate Republican more broadly. And I think that if its Republicans having a Latino on the ticket for the first time, Democrats are in some big trouble, and they need to start thinking about that moving forward, because there's a lot of talk about putting a white man up, et cetera.
But if you do not have -- if we're alienating Latino voters by Republicans, putting the first Latino on the ticket, that's a big problem.
MADDEN: And I will say this, having worked on a losing primary campaign, there's nothing like losing and then learning how to win one. So that's -- that's where I would give -- that's where I would give Rubio a little bit of extra credit on this.
HUNT: No, it's running for president. Everyone thinks it's, you know --
MADDEN: It's the -- it's -- it's the -- it's the process of begging for the right to be humiliated.
HUNT: Yes. It is a crucible that nobody truly understands until they've actually tried to do it.
All right. Ahead here in THE ARENA, the meeting between the president and the head of NATO still going on at the White House. We're going to talk to someone who's advised presidents on the Middle East, former envoy Brett McGurk.
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[16:48:16]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VANCE: I encourage the Iranians to come to the table, seriously. We've seen some signs that they're going to do that. We've seen some signs of bravado. Fundamentally, we're in a good spot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Vice President J.D. Vance moments ago saying he thinks the U.S. is in a good spot ahead of upcoming Iran talks. Those comments, coming just days before he's set to travel to Pakistan to lead those negotiations, where hell be joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and by Jared Kushner, the president's son in law.
Joining me now to discuss, CNN global affairs analyst Brett McGurk. He is a former Middle East and North Africa coordinator for the National Security Council, among many other titles here in this town and abroad.
Thank you, sir, very much for being here.
Can you walk us through how fragile or not fragile you think this ceasefire is with Iran at this moment?
BRETT MCGURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Kasie, it's great to be here. Fragile, I think is an understatement because right now, at least over the last 24 hours, there really has not been a ceasefire. So just -- I mean, I try to separate signal from noise and like, what do we know? So we've seen some of the largest attacks from Iran into the gulf today against Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, even an attack in Saudi Arabia, missiles and drones.
The Strait of Hormuz is not open today. It was it looked like earlier today, the same arrangement Iran had set during the war that you have to coordinate with them. You have to go into their area, pay a toll that appeared to be happening.
And then later Iran shut the strait because Israel launched a massive attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran says violates the ceasefire. And the U.S. says has actually had nothing to do with the ceasefire. So that's kind of where we are now.
[16:50:00]
Being on the other side of this, in past roles, I don't envy anyone doing this very difficult work. It is very hard. I really hope this comes together over the course of the next day.
But right now, fragile is an understatement and ceasefires are kind of like a Humpty-Dumpty, Kasie. Once they crack, it's very hard to put them back together.
And of the ceasefires I've done in the past, it's very important to have the ceasefire starts at this time. A very clear expectations because, they're very hard to get started and some on each side want to fire off a last shot. You know, that might happen.
But as of right now, I would not say we're in a good spot. I just from what we're seeing, we can count missiles, we can count drones, and we can count ships whether ships are moving. And so far, all of those indicators went at least today in the wrong direction.
HUNT: So what do you -- what do you make of Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, standing at the podium today and insisting the strait's open?
MCGURK: Well, this is where -- it's at -- it's empirical. Our ships going through the strait. And are they going freely? Its free, free passage.
I think the president's statement last night to announce the ceasefire was complete immediate, safe, whatever the three complete means, status quo antebellum, meaning before the war. It's an international passageway. Ships can go.
Iran has made clear that is not what they have agreed. And ships are not moving. There was a couple today that looked like they went through that Iranian. They have to go up through the Iranian islands, maybe pay a toll to Iran. That is not free passage of the strait.
So again, whatever people are saying, whatever the Iranians are saying, whatever the White House is saying, we can actually look at what's happening. And when it comes to whether or not ships are passing through the strait, we can count the ships. And so far today, the strait is not -- certainly is not open.
HUNT: What do you make of the team that is going to Pakistan? The fact that it's J.D. Vance leading that, not Marco Rubio, because of course, these two men seem to be playing different roles, both behind the scenes and to a lesser extent, but still also in public in terms of how they've talked about this conflict.
MCGURK: Well, if it's J.D. Vance and if it's the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, I think that is one of the most senior face to face meetings we've had with Iran that I can honestly recall. So again, if that happens, that's a big if -- I mean, that would be quite extraordinary.
And I think the Iranians are probably demanded their very protocol conscious if they're going to send one of their truly top officials, they want to be with the vice president. It's not Abbas Araghchi who is the foreign minister, who would be Rubio's counterpart. So that might be one reason. So we have to see, I will say, having negotiated with the Iranians,
there is a zero likelihood, Kasie, that you're going to go into Pakistan for a couple of days and come out with an agreement. Negotiations with Iranians, even in the best case, if things are going well, didn't take weeks and months is very complicated subject matter. And what has been out publicly, the issues are chasms apart. So nothing is really close to being agreed.
I mean, I would honestly advise maybe slowing that process down. I mean, going sitting down face to face if nothing has really been precooked at that level, you're more likely than not to have a breakdown. And once you have a breakdown at that level, to reuse the humpty dumpty analogy, it's even harder to put it back together. So I don't know, I'm -- I'm -- I want this to work, Kasie, but I am -- I'm very skeptical that something can come out of this over the weekend in Pakistan.
HUNT: Yeah. So just to put a finer point on it, it sounds like you assess or potentially have concerns that it might be a big risk to send somebody of this high level into a situation like this?
MCGURK: Unless you have some look, diplomacy, you've got to do a lot of the background work. And before you get two very top officials in a room together, especially something as dynamic and important as this, whether or not a war is going to stop or might start again. And just from what we're seeing, and there could be something behind the scenes, we're not seeing, what we're seeing, there -- we're nowhere near an agreement that the two sides might reach.
So having a meeting in itself maybe might reduce the tension, but there's no sign of reducing the tension. So yeah, I would ask questions about before you do the meeting at that level is it really ready or not? And I, from all the kind of this mixed messaging that we've seen in the last 24 hours, 15 point plan, ten point plan, three different ten point plans, Lebanon's a part of it says the Pakistani prime minister. The vice president says they're not. It seems like there's a lot of work to do before you have that tete-a-tete.
HUNT: Yeah, indeed. All right. Brett McGurk, thanks very much for bringing us your expertise. I really appreciate it.
All right. We'll be right back.
[16:55:01]
But first, there are wake up calls and then there are wake up calls. The crew of Artemis is now on day eight of their mission. They got their morning jolt today from a few music legends courtesy of mission control.
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HUNT: All right. Thanks to my panel. Really appreciate all of you being here. Thanks to all of you at home for watching as well. Do not go anywhere because the one and only Jake Tapper is standing by
for "THE LEAD".
