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CNN's The Arena with Kasie Hunt
U.S. Envoys Talk With Iran As War Approaches Ninth Week; Soon: Trump Attends RNC Gathering Amid Grim Poll Numbers; U.S. Soldier Part Of Maduro Raid Charged With Betting On Operation. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired April 24, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
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BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: I'm at a tiny closet.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yeah, that works for me. A nice, shiny, you know, whatever -- whatever it takes to see it.
KEILAR: All right. Harry, we'll hang out. See you in just a moment.
And we'll see THE ARENA WITH KASIE HUNT starting right now.
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Thanks for joining us.
(MUSIC)
KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Hi, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. Welcome to THE ARENA. Its great to have you with us on this Friday.
Right now, America's top negotiators are preparing for a new round of peace talks with the Iranians. This afternoon, the White House confirmed that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan tomorrow with Vice President J.D. Vance on standby to join them if need be.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The Iranians want to talk. They want to talk in person. And so, the president is, as I've said many, many times to all of you, always willing to give diplomacy a chance. So, Steve and Jared will be heading to Pakistan tomorrow to hear the Iranians out. We hope progress will be made, and we hope that positive developments will come from this meeting, and we will see.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: As that happens, the Trump administration is deploying a key tool in its fight to try to stop gas prices from climbing even higher. This morning, President Trump signed a 90-day extension of the Jones Act, which will make it easier to move oil, gas and other goods between American ports.
Today, the national average price for a gallon of gas rose to $4.06, and a new poll just released by "Reuters" finds that 76 percent of Americans say the Trump administration bears either a great deal or a fair amount of responsibility for higher gas prices. And, well, let's just say it's pretty easy to see why so many people feel that way
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: Are you worried about gas prices right now?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No, this is --
REPORTER: Why?
TRUMP: This is a short excursion.
You're going to see a very big decrease in the price of gasoline, gas, anything having to do with energy as soon as this is ended.
J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When this operation draws to a close, we're going to see those energy prices come back down to reality.
LEAVITT: These are short term actions and short-term price fluctuations for the long term benefit.
MARIA BARTIROMO, FOX NEWS HOST: Do you believe the price of oil and gas will be lower before the midterm elections?
TRUMP: I hope so, I mean, I think so. It could be -- it could be or the same or maybe a little bit higher.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: When do you think it's realistic for Americans to expect that gas will go back to under $3 a gallon?
CHRIS WRIGHT, ENERGY SECRETARY: I don't know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year.
SCOTT BESSENT, TREASURY SECRETARY: I think the conflict will end. I think gasoline prices will come back to where they were, or perhaps lower.
REPORTER: Does that mean Americans should anticipate spending more on gasoline for the foreseeable future?
TRUMP: For a little while. And, you know what they get for that? You know what they get for that? Iran without a nuclear weapon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Let's get off the sidelines, head into THE ARENA. My panel is here.
We're joined also by CNN's senior White House correspondent, Kristen Holmes.
Kristen, you could see they're kind of plain as day, how the gas prices were changing as this went along with the administration was saying is that was happening now? Of course, this second round of peace talks potentially happening. What more are you learning about the travel that Witkoff and Kushner are doing and where things stand? KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. So,
President Trump just did an interview with "Reuters" in which he said that Iran was going to offer a deal to the United States, but said that he didn't know what that deal was. Now, the important thing to note here, it's not just Vice President J.D. Vance who's not going to be president. It's also the top negotiator for Iran, the speaker of the parliament, that is the person who has been widely considered the most powerful, who has the authority.
So, this clearly seems like more of a working type situation instead of this high level negotiation. The other thing to point out is that it does have Iran crossing the red line. They said they wouldn't cross. They said that they would not come to the negotiating table as long as that blockade was still up in the Strait of Hormuz.
And obviously, that blockade is still up. So perhaps they want to make a deal, as Karoline Leavitt said. But obviously this is an advancement in where we were just a few days ago. Now, we still don't have any sort of answer. On the timeline of this ceasefire. If it is, in fact, indefinite, if they are pushing Iran to make a deal sooner.
And I asked Karoline Leavitt in a gaggle briefly, why now? Did they have some kind of indication that things had changed? Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: With this group going, does that mean that you have gotten the United States has gotten any kind of unified proposal from Iran, or are they going over there without any proposal from the Iranians?
LEAVITT: We've certainly seen some progress from the Iranian side in the last couple of days. Again, the president has made the decision to send Steve and Jared to hear the Iranians out. And so, we'll see what they have to say this weekend.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HOLMES: So, obviously, they're not clear if they actually got a unified proposal. In fact, it sounds like they probably didn't, but they have seen some kind of advancement. I will also note that in this "Reuters" interview, President Trump said that they are now dealing with the right people, that they know, the people that they're working with now are the people who are in charge. One of the big questions that we've been discussing for the last several days.
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HUNT: Indeed.
All right. Kristen Holmes for us at the White House -- Kristen, thank you very much.
My panel is here in THE ARENA. CNN legal analyst, former federal prosecutor, Elliot Williams; CNN contributor, host of "The New York Times'" "The Interview" Lulu Garcia-Navarro; CNN political commentator Paul Begala; and Republican strategist and former Trump campaign adviser, David Urban.
We're also joined by CNN global affairs analyst Brett McGurk.
And, Brett, let me start with you. Just as we finish kind of setting the stage here before we dig into the politics of all of this, how optimistic are you that what the president is saying in this new interview, that they know who they're dealing with is true?
BRETT MCGURK, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: (AUDIO GAP) and a path, because of the disarray we've seen in Tehran and whether or not these talks actually happen and the complexity of the subject matter, Kasie. It's very hard to see a breakthrough anytime soon. But if -- if -- if Iran is meeting in Islamabad and is prepared to meet with us after lay down a line saying that there will not be any talks, any engagements, so long as the blockade of Iranian ports is in place, so that means that they've blinked a little bit if this is actually going to happen.
I think we'll know a little more here in a few days. I think it's good there's some diplomatic activity. Look, the Pakistanis have an interest as a mediator and sometimes mediators Kasie try to put a spin on the ball with both sides and can suggest things are closer than they actually are. And that could be happening here, too.
I suspect the two sides are fairly far apart. All that said, if you back up, what's happening here is kind of an extreme version of what many administrations have tried economic pressure combined with diplomacy to try to resolve the nuclear issue. So, we have the blockade in place. Ships are being seized even in the Biden administration, Kasie. We see ships under DOJ orders, and then the Iranians would seize a ship. I mean, this cat and mouse game has gone for some time.
I am hopeful we can have a breakthrough and resolve, particularly this nuclear issue, get rid of the highly enriched uranium and settle the enrichment issue. This has been a perennial issue for decades, and let's hope there could be something. But to your question, I'm not particularly optimistic on the diplomatic path at the moment.
HUNT: Well, on that cheerful note, let me turn to the panel here. I mean, David Urban, you heard the president there with gas prices above $4 a gallon, saying Americans will put up with it because Iran won't have a nuclear weapon. From the perspective of, you know, someone who's, let's say, a Republican who wants to keep their seat in the House in November, true or false?
DAVID URBAN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Hey, listen, I think that if -- if at the end of this, the negotiators U.S. walks out with a briefcase full of nuclear dust, right? There's we leave and we have the --
HUNT: Isn't it like 980 pounds of enriched uranium or something like that at this point?
URBAN: Dust.
HUNT: Okay. URBAN: But if we walk out with something that we didn't have and we --
the president could credibly say that Iran no longer possesses the capability to, you know, wreak nuclear holocaust amongst the world. And the gas prices went up because of that, I think that's -- I think that I think Americans will accept that. If we walk out and have nothing more than what was in the JCPOA, we buy some time, we buy a little more time. I think that's a different -- a different, you know, different horse of a different color.
And I think it's going to be much more difficult for Republicans to defend that. If we come back with something more, we have nuclear material. I think it will be. If you're Iran, if you're smart, you'd give it up because you just realized we don't need a nuclear weapon to hold the world hostage. We can just throw some mines and have a person on the shore with a missile and close down the world, anyhow.
LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Can we have a reality check about where we are right now? What we've literally just heard this administration say is, gee, guys, we think we're dealing with the right people. Now, how is that in any way, shape or form?
URBAN: To be fair, we killed -- we killed most of the other people, to be fair.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well -- by the way, by the way, yes, to be fair and without any thought about, you needed a functioning government to negotiate with to get the Straits of Hormuz open, to have a nuclear deal with. You actually need a government to negotiate with. If you kill them all, there is no one to talk to. And so, this is where we are now.
And so, you know, the reality of this situation is that it's kind of Keystone Cops. I mean, this is not -- no, this is not the way -- this is -- this is not the way normally these kinds of very important and high-stakes negotiations are done. And I'll also add that this isn't just the American economy that's being held hostage. It is the global economy that is being held hostage while this all plays out.
And so, you know, we are back now to a situation in which lower-level people are going to negotiate. The principals aren't going to be there, and that is going to take a lot of time.
URBAN: You're making the presidents point for him.
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The global economy is being held hostage, right? But the global world is not participating. So --
GARCIA-NAVARRO: But why -- you know --
URBAN: Trump -- Trump -- Trump saying exactly what you're making this point for. Everybody else needs to put their shoulder to the wheel here, world, help out. You care about this more than we do.
ELLIOT WILLIAMS, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Yeah. You know, Kasie, back to your original question about how much do Americans care? Should they care or be persuaded by the president about eliminating the threat of thermonuclear holocaust? And yes, that is important. We want to be safe. We want the world to be safe and so on.
But on a day-to-day level, most Americans are not thinking about this abstract threat that might happen in the Middle East, tragically, you know, for better or for worse, people aren't thinking about thinking about, can I fill my gas tank? Can I get to work?
I drive several hundred miles a week and gas is above $4 a gallon with no sign of going down, and is a real factor in a real concern. And so, you know, I think to your point, it's yes, the president makes an important point about, you know, we've gotten rid of their nuclear weapons, but there are real economic costs that people are --
URBAN: I would just say this everybody at this table remembers what it felt like to be in this town on September 12th or be in America on September 12th. If I was this administration, I would have at the start, at the outset would have said, remember what it felt like on that day. Remember how it felt to be an American?
I would have said, we want to prevent that from ever happening again. So, what are we going to do?
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Let me pick up on that -- let me pick up on that, because one of the great rules of the Trump era is it can always get worse. And I'm terribly worried about terrorism. Iran is the world's worst, most evil sponsor of terrorism, right? And they want to attack America.
And our lives are in the hands of Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard, Markwayne Mullin, the kickboxing plumber. Are you kidding me?
No. I'm serious. This is -- I lived through that. You did, too. I lost friends on that day.
I was driving past the Pentagon when that plane hit. And our president has put our safety in the hands of incompetence. And that's a huge problem.
It hasn't happened yet. Thank you, God. And thanks to our military and homeland security. But if -- and when that happens, it is going to be much worse.
URBAN: Paul and I see this obviously differently, right? And it's fine, right? This is how it works in this world where we're allowed to disagree. I -- again, think that the world is a much better place today and will be much better off at the end of this endeavor in the Middle East.
We can't allow Iran to be in their current situation. We can't allow them to have a nuclear weapon. We can't allow them to have nuclear physical material. We're going to have to figure it out. If gas prices go up, if the Republicans lose the House --
BEGALA: We should thank Obama -- (CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: -- developing a weapon without going to war.
HUNT: Hold on for one second, because while I take it -- right now, we've got a Democrat and a Republican disagreeing, right? A big part of the politics of this is that Republicans are disagreeing with each other. MAGA is disagreeing with what the president is doing in a way that kind of underscores his weakness, frankly, in polls and in other ways.
Let's watch. This was Megyn Kelly earlier this week talking about the president. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MEGYN KELLY, HOST, "THE MEGYN KELLY SHOW": But there's still, in my view, a lot to like about Trump. It's just some of those darker demons are much more in the front view right now because he's like a cornered animal.
He's got no support in this Iran war. He can't bring it to an end. These are tough mother (EXPLETIVE DELETED) who are not doing what we want them to. And coming to the negotiating table and giving us what we want so we can get out and just declare it a win.
He sees his poll numbers are now -- his latest poll approval on Iran was 30 -- at 30 percent. I mean, his job approval in like the last five polls has been in the low 30s, low 30s.
So, his legacy is on the line. And you can tell -- he can tell. So he's acting out in a very, very bad way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Paul Begala, do you disagree with anything --
URBAN: A big tent, by the way. That's a big tent. Russell Brand and Megyn Kelly talking about Republican politics.
BEGALA: Yeah.
URBAN: Just saying.
BEGALA: Look, the president has some elites in his coalition fractured, Ms. Kelly among them. He needs to worry more about like real Americans. And as I said, I'm terrified about the threat of terrorism. And I think he's got our safety in the hands of incompetence.
But the political and economic stuff is really, really -- it's not just gas prices.
HUNT: Yeah.
BEGALA: Okay? The largest maker of condoms in the world just raised their prices 35 percent just in time for prom.
URBAN: Okay, I'm not going to talk --
HUNT: Why am I not surprised that you, of all people, brought that into.
BEGALA: Fertilizer is up 100 percent.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: This took a turn that I was not expecting.
BEGALA: I'm just saying everything. Everything. Helium. Helium, which is a key ingredient in beer.
URBAN: To Paul's point. Listen just to Paul's point. Poll after poll after poll still shows voters trust Republicans on issues of economy safety. Still outside Democrats.
BEGALA: It's not true anymore.
HUNT: The economy, we have seen actually some -- some mixed results.
URBAN: It's taken a dive, but we're still -- still ahead.
HUNT: Brett McGurk let me wrap up here with you. There were a number of things to choose from there. So, if you -- if you would like to weigh in on fertilizer, condoms, whatever else, please feel free.
URBAN: Brett McGurk has been exploding.
HUNT: But I mean, there was the point also that Paul made about the terrorist threat that Iran presents. And I'd be interested to know your assessment of how live you think that is and whether if you think that the Iranians would have by now tried to launch a cyberattack, say, on civilian infrastructure that was previously ruled out, if it would have happened by now.
[16:15:12]
I mean, what is the threat level there?
MCGURK: Look, it's real. I mean, I'll give you an example. Back in the Biden administration, we tried to get back in the nuclear deal. We had -- we had months of negotiations.
And Iran -- Iran insisted that we lift the terrorism sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards and the designation of Revolutionary Guards as the Revolutionary Guards were plotting assassination plots inside our homeland and attacking our troops. And our administration said, we just can't do that. And they never dropped that demand because that is because they are the largest state sponsor of terrorism. It is a real, real threat.
That does not mean everything that's been done here in the last eight weeks was necessarily well-conceived or well-planned out, but in terms of an issue that I hope Americans can get behind where we are right now, economic pressure on Iran and trying to resolve this issue diplomatically. Let's hope -- let's hope this can work.
HUNT: Let's hope indeed.
All right. Brett McGurk, thank you very much. Always appreciate you. Have a great weekend.
MCGURK: Thank you.
HUNT: The rest of our panel is going to stand by.
Coming up next, the hacks on tap are back in THE ARENA. Veteran political strategist David Axelrod and Mike Murphy will be here as President Trump heads south to the RNC spring retreat amid grim poll numbers for his party heading into the midterm elections.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: We are on track to win in November. Watch. We are on track.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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HUNT: Right now, President Trump is headed down to Florida to rally his fellow Republicans at the RNC's spring retreat, just days after the GOP lost a Virginia redistricting referendum. That loss now prompting some Republicans to openly voice their frustrations and in some cases, buyer's remorse about the party's approach to the redistricting wars.
As we get closer to November, Trump advisers are fine tuning their midterm messaging. They're planning to convince voters that whatever gripes they may have with the president and his party, Democrats will be worse.
Joining me now to discuss in THE ARENA, Republican strategist Mike Murphy. He is one half of the "Hacks on Tap" podcast. We are waiting for the other half of the podcast to dial in. We're having some technical hang ups with David Axelrod.
So, Mike Murphy, I will talk to you first. It's always great to see you. Thank you so much for being here.
Where do you think things stand? I mean, set the table for us. Big picture heading into the midterm elections, Speaker Johnson is on camera saying, we're going to win. You just watch. He kind of has to say that, right?
MIKE MURPHY, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Oh yeah. I mean, if he wants to make a bet, he ought to give me a call. I'm willing to lay money down. You know, look, the party in power traditionally has trouble in the midterm elections. And when the party in power has an incumbent president with the lowest
approval ratings he's ever had, even on the economy, which used to be his strength in perception. People thinking he was good at it, that is collapsed down to low 30s and an unpopular war of choice without any apparent strategy at all, other than to torch a few billion a day.
Yeah, they're going to have a hell of a tough midterm, particularly in the House. The Senate's more challenging, as you know, because there are more Republican seats. But even there, races that would have been hopeless for the Democrats two years ago are now in play.
HUNT: David Axelrod, welcome. Thank you for being here.
DAVID AXELROD, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Thank you.
HUNT: Happy to have you.
So, picking up on that, I mean, if you set that stage that way, Democrats are basically in the catbird seat here. Is there any way for them to screw it up?
AXELROD: Well, I never want to bet against that but -- listen, I've been in the White House at a time when everything was working against you before the midterms in 2010. I know what that feels like.
And of course, you have to say, no, we're going to turn this around. You know, things are going to improve by the fall. People are going to realize that our policies are brilliant and their lives are much better than they perceive at the gas pump or at the grocery store and so on. And that never really works.
And this is very late for things to turn around. The president's been struggling with his numbers on the economy, which is, of course, the reason he got elected from for months and months and months before this war. And now the war, which was not well-explained, is has sent gas prices up a dollar other prices up and people are wondering what -- what the heck is going on?
And so, no, I don't think, you know, the thing, Kasie, that I -- troubles me is you have a president who doesn't really believe in rules and laws and norms and institutions and the wheel of democracy is turning. I don't think he can stop that momentum.
Mike and I have this debate all the time on our show. I think the question is, can he throw wrenches in that wheel? And I think that he will try and throw wrenches in that wheel in terms of voter suppression and voter roll purges and how he uses federal authorities during the next few months, because on the national, I think they're in for a big, big licking.
HUNT: Mike, what's your view of that?
MURPHY: No, I -- look, in a fair fight, they lose. David and I actually agree. They're going to try to throw wrenches. I think what we go back and forth on "Hacks on Tap" podcast is I think it's an extremely big wheel. And he has a small wrench. So, if he gets some big wrenches, it could be a more material factor. But in a midterm election, when the economy which you were elected on perceptions of strength on is in big trouble, people are just they can hardly wait to hit the ejector seat button.
[16:25:08]
And I think that's the situation he's in. But to the beginning of your question, can the Democrats find a way to screw it up by taking the bait on culture wars and all the other kind of tricks that the Trump White House likes to use? They could. I think they're a little smarter this time, but that's what I'm nervous about.
HUNT: So, to that point, I mean, one issue of course, that that gets at some of that question, right? Because if Democrats are going to do anything to, you know, mess up what is a very good looking structural, you know, map and situation for them, it is being forced to the left or being baited to the left. And impeachment is one way to kind of ask that question.
And there's a key senate race in Michigan where we're seeing this show up. And my colleague Manu Raju was out there in the last week or so talking to the candidates about this. And it kind of, I think, sets up the different ways to talk about it.
Let's watch what they had to say about impeachment. We'll talk about it on the other side. Take a look.
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MALLORY MCMORROW (D), MAJORITY WHIP, MICHIGAN STATE SENATE: Sitting on the table, Donald Trump should not be the president. He should not be in office. Whether it's the 25th amendment, whether its impeachment.
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: I've seen enough that if I were in the House, I would vote to impeach.
MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT : Is that a yes? You would support impeachment or are you still -- you're -- you would consider?
REP. HALEY STEVENS (D), MICHIGAN: I have supported an inquiry. We've got to build a real case. Overall, we need to be standing up for our democracy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: David Axelrod what do you think is the right way for Democrats to approach this? Because the base wants to see fighting, but there's also this kind of exhaustion around impeachment too from middle of the road voters.
AXELROD: Yeah, I think what the base wants to see is accountability. And they see -- and they see impeachment as the means to it. And look, there are many different avenues you know, in terms of corruption and various abuses of power, that would warrant that consideration. The question is, is that what the -- is that what the American people want and expect?
I think they expect the Congress to hold him accountable. And there are many ways to do that. Through their investigative authorities. I don't know that the American public, on the whole, want to see the country bogged down in a long impeachment fight that they know -- you know, they've seen the movie before. They know how it's going to end.
I think they want the Congress to do what the president promised to do and hasn't, which is to focus on the fundamental issues affecting their lives. And I think the trick for the Democrats will be how do you do both things? How do you hold them accountable? And, and at the same time, fight for fundamental changes that will actually help people who are out there and struggling in this economy.
HUNT: Mike, what do you think? What do you think?
MURPHY: Well, this is a classic fork, as we say in politics. Your primary voters in the Democratic Party want to impeach him tomorrow morning. They want him in jail. There's a lot of passion for it.
But your general election voters are kind of more where David was saying. So if you're in a contested primary like Michigan, where you kind of have two and a half Democratic candidates now, you don't want to be the Democratic candidate saying, oh, no, we don't need impeachment. You know, that's the problem.
In the general election, it's a whole different ball game, but you got to get there. So, I -- if I were running in that senate primary, I would say, yes, I think it's appropriate to impeach him because I don't want to lose the primary. But I would certainly pivot to shift my emphasis in the general election to whatever American voters really dealing with, which is a weekly beat down at the cash register and threaten paychecks.
Everything costs more. Unemployment is ticking up. The tariffs are a poison on the economy.
There's a great general election economic argument against the president. But you got to get through your primary first.
HUNT: Yeah. And let's talk about independent voters, which, of course, come, you know, after you're on the other side of a primary like that.
This was Megyn Kelly, who is, you know, has been a Trump supporter but has turned critical of him in the wake of the Iran war, talking about where the president stands with independent voters. Let's watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: When you look at the cross tabs in the all-important independent voters, Trump has cratered. I mean, cratered, not -- it's like not even present tense anymore, 21 percent of independents support this war on Iran, 21. You've got 79 percent of independents who are against. Folks, you cannot win elections like that. Democrat or Republican, you got 80 percent of independents against you, you're effed. You need to adjust something, ASAP. (END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Mike, I mean, big picture. Is she right? And also, what does the fact that there are so many people on the MAGA right who are criticizing the president, say about where he stands with those people?
[16:30:03]
MURPHY: Yeah, he's in a bit of a vise. It's like the old garbage disposal in "Star Wars" where the walls are closing in from both sides. You know, I think Megyn's getting her own pivot ready. She's really turned on Trump a bit, as of course, has Tucker Carlson has done a neck snapping 180 on all this.
But to the factual point, yes, she's right about independent voters. He's had trouble with them every time he loses, like, you know, he did in the reelect in 2020. And for the last year, his numbers of independents have been getting worse and worse, and many of them are independents who tilt Republican on economic issues. Back to that, screwing up the economy in that perception.
So he's got a MAGA revolt going on with at least a segment of that led by people with an audience like Kelly, like Carlson, because he ran on no foreign wars. Cut to an aimless foreign war that's killing everybody at the gas pump and shattering our alliances. And on the other half, people, you know, that cash register bidding hits in independence as hard as anybody.
AXELROD: Can I just say, the independent problem is, is crushing for Republicans in a general election?
The other problem they have is the fact is, if you look at polling, MAGA has actually shifted the rank-and-file MAGA voter gives him his highest approval ratings. And even though its somewhat lower on the war, they've shifted attitudes on the war, despite what, you know, Megan and Tucker and others have to say. And this is why Republicans are in a vise, because they can't drift from the president, because the one group that he has still has sway with is Republicans. And, and so, he's got them in a vise.
Let me just say one last thing. I know you probably have to run. I want to say one thing to my friend Mike, which is you said the, the wheel of democracy is big and the president has a small wrench. He really gets offended when you say things like that. Okay? So be careful.
MURPHY: I said it references to a small wrench. Okay?
HUNT: Oh, boy. All right. On that cheerful note, David Axelrod, Mike Murphy, thank you both. Always love having you. I hope to see you guys both soon.
All right.
AXELROD: Thank you. HUNT: Coming up next here in THE ARENA, why the White House is saying
the investigation into Jerome Powell isn't over, just hours after the DOJ moved to drop the criminal investigation into the Fed chair.
But first, who could have predicted this? A U.S. Special Forces soldier involved in the raid that captured Nicolas Maduro now under arrest, facing federal charges after placing an online bet on that very operation.
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TRUMP: Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.
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[16:37:11]
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TRUMP: That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team. It's a little like Pete Rose. Pete Rose, he kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team. Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good. But he bet on his own team. I'll look into it.
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HUNT: President Trump on Thursday comparing the U.S. special forces soldier who was arrested after allegedly winning $400,000 on the Nicolas Maduro raid to baseball star Pete Rose. Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active duty soldier stationed at Fort Bragg, is facing five criminal charges over his supposed use of confidential information to profit from a series of 13 bets that the Venezuelan leader would be, quote, out by January.
Van Dyke's wagers placed on the prediction market Polymarket ultimately won him about 12 times the original $34,000 that he bet, according to the indictment. His arrest comes amid heightened scrutiny over concerns around insider trading on prediction markets. The president wants himself the owner of a casino empire, adding this about the recent explosion of these platforms.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what's going on all over the world and Europe and every place they're doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually, but it is what it is.
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HUNT: It is what it is.
Joining our panel in THE ARENA is CNN contributor, tech journalist Jacob Ward.
Before we start our conversation, though, we want to disclose two things. First, CNN has a partnership with the prediction market platform Kalshi. They provide the network with data. CNN editorial employees are not permitted to bet on prediction or event markets.
And secondly, David Urban, who's been on our panel for this show, does represent Polymarket as a lobbyist, so he won't be participating in our conversation.
Jacob Ward, let me start with you, though, because, you know, technology has essentially allowed these markets to explode and to proliferate. And increasingly, we are seeing story after story coming up that really raises a lot of ethical, moral, difficult questions about how these markets are used. And this is a pretty dramatic case.
JACOB WARD, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Yeah, it's an extremely dramatic case, but it's not an anomaly. This is really a pattern.
We have seen in the past, Kasie, you know, people cashing in on all sorts of insider information. This is just the first time that federal charges have come out against somebody. You know, the prediction market industry is based on some pretty good science, which is that if you put people together and you make them have some skin in the game, like you make them gamble money on something, then they tend to bring their sharpest sensibilities to it. And it really can surface the wisdom of the crowd.
[16:40:01]
We have things like the Iowa electronics market, which does this, and they've predicted the winner of the presidential election better than pollsters have. But that's only when you put a $500 cap on it, and you make sure it's a pool of experts.
What we're seeing in this commercial market is an explosion of, you know, gambling is really what this is. And the temptation to trade on insider information. And what's really interesting, Kasie, is that just four days ago, a paper came out of Yale and the London School of Economics, London School of Business, excuse me, which says basically that it's found that what this really is, is not a way of just surfacing the wisdom of the crowd. It's that a tiny percentage of people have the information that wins them the money, and everybody else is just funding their winnings.
Essentially, you know, we think we're all kind of fishing in the same pool. But what this paper is showing that a tiny number of people actually know where the real fish are, and everybody else is just paying to cast a line. And in this case, with this master sergeant, makes that just cartoonishly clear, Kasie.
HUNT: It really does.
Lulu Garcia-Navarro when you look at this -- I mean, what are the implications of this as a societal problem? GARCIA-NAVARRO: I mean, I think the implications are in one sense, the
president's right that we are all involved in a casino. On the other side, who is running the casino? Who is the house?
HUNT: Who's the house?
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And who's the house?
HUNT: The house always wins.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: And the house always wins.
So, I think the point was made very clearly there, that there's a small group of people who are the house, who have insider information and are doing this. We've already seen, I think, members of Congress and others get swept up in this.
I will also note that the president himself, despite decrying this and saying he was going to look into it and he doesn't like it his own truth social is actually getting involved in a prediction market and involved with crypto. So, you know, and his son, by the way, also Don Jr. is investing in these companies.
So, everyone is making money except, I think, for the people at the bottom of the pool who are just betting blindly.
HUNT: Well, and, Paul Begala, I mean, we can put up a series of headlines that show how this issue is kind of becoming a political one, an important political one for 2028 Democratic hopefuls in particular.
Gavin Newsom moving to ban California officials from trading in these markets. Rahm Emanuel proposing all banning all federal employees from betting on prediction markets. Elissa Slotkin -- she wants to limit lawmakers using online markets where people bet on politics. Chris Murphy seeking a ban on insider bets in prediction markets.
You know, it's interesting for a couple reasons. I'm curious to hear your take on why this is something that has gotten all of this attention from these candidates.
BEGALA: Well, I think Jacob's point is right. That it's kind of like everything in the Trump economy. They get the gold mine, you get the shaft. And let's --let's note that the -- there's hardly anybody lower ranking than a master sergeant in the army. That's who the government is targeting. Maybe he's guilty, I don't know. I want all of it cleaned up.
But they're not starting at the top, are they? I don't, you know, so what Rahm Emanuel has proposed, I think is a good starting point.
Everyone in the federal government would be banned and their family members, period. Everybody, you're out. If you're -- if you're at the Department of Agriculture in Wyoming, you can't bet on anything on these markets. And then second, why don't we tax them, right? Emanuel has proposed we
put a 10 percent tax on these betting markets, and that's what they are. And also, sports betting.
And we take that and we invest it in scientific research, NIH, DARPA, things we used to do in America before Trump gutted that stuff. So there's a lot -- this is going to be a huge issue because the sense that the that the economy is rigged and now the casino is rigged is a very powerful one.
HUNT: Elliot Williams, what does the law say? I mean, is it illegal to bet on one of these markets with information that other people don't have, or is it not?
WILLIAMS: That is a wonderful question, because I'm certain that this defendant is going to say that the law is unclear about this. And by way of example, the statute, the statute that governs trading generally on this type of information was written in 1922 and refers to sorghum and cottonseed oil, but not cryptocurrency. And so, we are racing --
HUNT: Come a long ways.
WILLIAMS: We've come a long way, baby, but we are, you know, and it's funny hearing your conversation a moment ago between the two of you about the house always wins. Well, the question is not just what's the house, but what is the card game you're playing?
Is it regulated as a trade? Is it regulated as a commodity or whatever else? And those are open legal questions that the law -- Congress certainly doesn't act fast enough to catch up to, but are evolving so quickly.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: But I think this gentleman you know, and obviously this is alleged, right? But one of the things that they're getting him on is basically using privileged information that is actually secret -- government secrets. It's not just things --
HUNT: Yeah, Jacob. Jacob Ward, we're very much out of time. I want to give you a very quick last word. Who is the house?
WARD: Well, the house is definitely both the people running these prediction markets. And as your panel has pointed out here, right, the Trump administration, which is thoroughly invested in this.
I would also say the secondary thing we got to worry about here, you guys, is that this also has the potential to shape reality, not just reveal the future. We've seen cases where, you know, during the Trump campaign, some single trader paid between $25 million and $30 million in 2024 to place bets on Trump winning. And that wasn't shown to move the, you know, the result, but it definitely shifted perception.
And so, this idea that were somehow, you know, coming up with the wisdom of the crowd through this is falling apart, especially as we see the kind of corrupt behavior becoming more and more a core part of what prediction markets are doing here. HUNT: Indeed. All right. Jacob Ward, thank you very much. I'm so, so
happy that you are now a member of the CNN family. So welcome.
WARD: You, too. Thank you.
HUNT: It's great to be working with you again, and we really appreciate you. We'll see you soon.
All right. Ahead here in THE ARENA, the White House insisting the news today on Jerome Powell is just a bump and not the end of the road.
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[16:50:22]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEAVITT: The investigation still continues. It's just under a different authority, and that's what you'll continue to see.
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HUNT: The White House today saying the investigation into Jerome Powell is still continuing. But wait, you might have seen the headlines that say the opposite is true.
This morning, the U.S. attorney, Jeanine Pirro, dropped the DOJ's criminal probe into the fed chair. That was the one that was pushed by President Trump looking into the Fed's multibillion dollar renovation project.
Powell has denied any wrongdoing, called it an attempt to erode the Central Bank's independence. But this week, things changed when it became clear that the president's Fed chair nominee was facing a basically impossible confirmation battle after Republican Senator Thom Tillis held firm in not supporting that nomination until the Powell investigation was dropped. The White House says the inspector general's office is now going to continue the investigation.
Our panel is back.
David Urban, I mean, dropping the criminal investigation seems to be the one with the most teeth. What's going on here? I mean, is this just a situation where Thom Tillis won the fight?
URBAN: I think at the end of the day, Thom Tillis did win the fight. But there has to be some accountability. Jerome -- Jerome Powell is supposed to be helping run the economy. If you can't supervise, you know, a building being renovated. Cost overruns were just ridiculous.
HUNT: That is not uncommon in Washington.
URBAN: No, no, but I know. I completely understand that. But the president put out a tweet this week. And interestingly, I would --
HUNT: I mean, how much is the ballroom costing? URBAN: But listen, interestingly, the president renovating the
reflecting pool. So I don't know if anyone's been on the mall. I take a walk around the mall. So, the president got a bid from the government, got a bid to redo the reflecting pool for like $3 billion, some ridiculous amount of money.
So, Trump went down with Burgum and Trump's pool contractor, and they are recoating, they recock, they're redoing the entire reflecting pool for like 2 million bucks, and it's going to last 40 years. And Trump, Trump put a whole statement about it.
And so, he is a -- he knows buildings. He's fiscally responsible, very fiscally conservative, who comes to buildings.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Doesn't President Trump have anything better to do?
URBAN: He does. He does.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Oh my Lord!
URBAN: He's a good steward of everyone's dollars, Lulu. Come on.
BEGALA: He has exploded the deficit more than all of his predecessors.
URBAN: He's a good steward.
BEGALA: Okay? That's all he does is run up debt.
URBAN: I'm just saying, look, Jerome Powell is supposed to be running the economy. He can't run a building. I.G. is going to investigate it. We'll find out in a year.
WILLIAMS: These are two buildings built in 1932 and 1937 that are made of marble and are 400,000 square feet. You can't -- anybody who's ever renovated their kitchen or bathroom cannot tell me that --
HUNT: You can't, right? The contractor says that will be 50 grand.
WILLIAMS: That will be 50 grand.
HUNT: $100,000 later.
WILLIAMS: So, the idea that they're not, you know, the cost overruns are now a criminal offense is preposterous.
URBAN: And I'm saying -- I just said they're not. I said they deserve I.G. investigation.
WILLIAMS: Well, sure, sure. I'll be the first person having worked in the Justice Department to have an independent inspector general. Look at how this played out. But the idea that estimates being wrong and someone being the head of an organization is now a criminal offense, it's preposterous.
This was a junk prosecution brought by junk prosecutors on a junky basis. It's being thrown out for the junk that it is. URBAN: Wasn't thrown out. Its been withdrawn.
WILLIAMS: Pardon me. Withdrawn. Well, a judge --
URBAN: Do you need a -- do you need a pardon?
WILLIAMS: Time out. A judge has already -- a federal judge, the words were essentially zero evidence for the subpoenas in this case. You can't tell me that this was based in any sort of reality.
URBAN: Are you saying that their politics is at play here? The whole?
(CROSSTALK)
HUNT: Paul really wants in here.
BEGALA: Trump's sense of personal grievance is the issue here. He's not concerned about cost overruns. He doesn't like -- he doesn't like his own appointee to run the Fed, Jerome Powell. So, he's going after him. He doesn't like the former -- his own head of the FBI who he's threatened to -- the state attorney general of New York, he doesn't like -- to prosecute her, former CIA deputy director.
The problem with this politically and, you know, full disclosure, I can't stand Trump but even --
HUNT: Really, Paul?
BEGALA: But -- so I hope I'm not being unfair --
HUNT: We had no idea.
BEGALA: I hope I'm not being unfair when I say he seems a little self- absorbed.
HUNT: Shocker, shocker.
URBAN: Wait, wait, are you are you taking umbrage with --
BEGALA: He seems a little self-absorbed.
URBAN: Are you taking umbrage with political prosecutions? Hold on. I'm just --
BEGALA: Absolutely. Oh, let me make my point, David.
URBAN: How ironic.
BEGALA: Let me make my point. Back in January, CNN did a poll, and most Americans thought Trump was much more concerned about himself than about their lives. That's before $4 a gallon gas. That's before all of this nuttiness. He's in it for himself, and he's going to screw you. That is a message Democrats can take to the polling place in November and win.
URBAN: All right. Well, this has been a fun Friday with all of you. Thank you for that.
We'll be right back.
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HUNT: All right. Thanks very much, my panel. Really appreciate you guys being here. Have a wonderful weekend.
Thanks to you at home for watching as well. Please do have a wonderful weekend as well.
Don't forget, you can watch much more of THE ARENA tomorrow. THE ARENA Saturday airs at noon and again at 4:00 p.m. Eastern, right here on CNN. I do hope that you will take some time in your weekend to join us.
But for now, don't go anywhere.
"THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER" starts right now.
