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CNN's The Arena with Kasie Hunt

U.S. Says Iran Truce Holds, Rubio Calls Recent U.S. Action "Defensive"; Senate GOP Eyes $1 Billion For White House Ballroom, Despite Trump Saying It Would Be Privately Funded; Tonight: Seven California Governor Candidates Face Off On CNN. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired May 05, 2026 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:00:00]

MARCO RUBIO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: Guys, I love talking about this topic. It's about the War Powers Act.

REPORTER: Yes.

RUBIO: Okay, I love it. I was hoping somebody would ask.

All right, hold on, hold on. No, no, you don't let me answer. I got to answer the question. Okay? And I love it. I'll tell you why I love it because even as a senator, I said something.

The War Powers Act is unconstitutional 100 percent. Now, this is not the position of me. It's not the position of the president. United States. Now, this is the position of every single president that has occupied this position since the day that law passed. It's completely unconstitutional.

Now, we comply with it in terms of like notification, because we want to preserve good relations with Congress. Right? And we do that. But even as a senator, I would say that the War Powers Act is 100 percent unconstitutional.

And look, I know some of you, whatever you want to say, but this is not this president's position. That has been the position of every single presidential administration since the day that law passes an infringement on the president's constitutional powers. We don't acknowledge the law as constitutional. Nonetheless, we comply with elements of it for purposes of maintaining good relations with Congress.

And we want them to be involved, and we want them to be informed. I have gone on Capitol Hill, I don't know, four times this year for all senators and all House members and intel committee and gang of eight. We want them to be involved in this.

But I want to be clear on the point of the War Powers Act. It's unconstitutional. And every president and every administration has taken that position.

All right, guys, I gave you 50 minutes. Thank you. Thank you, guys. Thank you. KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: All right. We have been listening to the

secretary of state, Marco Rubio, at the White House press briefing.

Hi, everyone. Welcome to THE ARENA. I'm Kasie Hunt. It's wonderful to have you with us on this Tuesday.

Secretary Rubio's remarks coming amid new questions about the U.S. operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and new attacks that threaten the ceasefire with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUBIO: The United States of America holds all the cards. There is no scenario here in which, if they decide to join a ladder of escalation, they wind up getting the last say. But our preference is for these straits to be opened to the way they're supposed to be open back to the way it was.

Anyone can use it. No mines in the water, nobody paying tolls. That's what we have to get back to. And that's the goal here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Back to the way it was. That, of course, would be the way it was just more than two months ago, before the United States and Israel began Operation Epic Fury.

This afternoon, the United Arab Emirates reported a new missile attack coming from Iran. Although Iran denies responsibility.

This follows confirmation by the Pentagon that Iran has attacked American forces in the region more than ten times in recent weeks. The Trump administration says they do not consider that a violation of the ceasefire, but that could change in coming days, with Iran's chief negotiator posting online today this quote, "The status quo is intolerable for America. We have not even begun yet," end quote.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Is the ceasefire over?

PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: No. The ceasefire is not over. Ultimately, this is a separate and distinct project.

REPORTER: What do they need to do to violate the ceasefire?

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, you'll find out, because I'll let you know. They know what to do, and they know what to do. They know what not to do, more importantly.

RUBIO: They really shouldn't test the will of the United States. At least not under President Donald Trump. He has proven time and again that he will back up what he says. And if they test him, ultimately, they will lose the hard way, the easy way, the long way, the short way. They will lose.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: All right, let's get off the sidelines. Head into THE ARENA.

My panel is standing by, but we're going to start at the White House with CNN senior White House correspondent Kristen Holmes, who attended that briefing. We saw her questioning the secretary of state.

Kristen, a very interesting moment in a lot of ways for Marco Rubio coming, of course, at this high stakes point in the U.S. war with Iran. What did you take away from this briefing? And did you come away thinking that the secretary of state is on the same page as the president, that he serves?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think one of the most interesting parts of the briefing was this definitive answer that he had on epic fury, this idea that this is completely over, that that portion of the war in Iran is over, that that's why President Trump notified Congress. That is not the entire takeaway that we had had from multiple questioning sessions with President Trump, from the briefing with Pete Hegseth, this idea that definitively epic fury was over and the United States had now entered into this new phase.

Now, of course, that raised all sorts of questions about the War Powers Act, about the fact that President Trump has been threatening to bomb Iran off the face of the planet if they were to go after U.S. ships. This idea that President Trump has held out on continuing more military attacks, it didn't seem as though we got a clear answer on whether or not this would be part of a new operation, because we heard Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in addition to saying that that portion of all of this was over, saying that President Trump shouldn't be messed with, that he'll make a decision.

Now, interestingly, we also heard Marco Rubio talking about negotiations. I thought one of the more fascinating points of this was this idea that U.S. representatives are working to gain some understanding of what topics Iran is willing to negotiate on.

[16:05:07]

It gave us a little bit more of an insight into what exactly these conversations are. It would seem as though at this point that they would have been further along than just figuring out where Iran is willing to negotiate, but it does seem, from what the secretary of state said, that they are still kind of going through what a negotiation would actually look like, what these documents were.

And in fact, Rubio said that there is no actual document, but that they are going through what could be points that Iran could make concessions on, or points that they wouldn't make concessions on. I mean, all in all, we saw the secretary of state. This is really the first time he's fielded so many questions about the war in Iran, about the negotiations, about the diplomacy. He said over and over again that the president's preference, as well as the administration's preference, is to do this diplomatically. But, of course, they were willing to move forward with strikes, with military action. But again, this is the most, most fulsome answer we've seen from the

secretary of state when it comes to this war. And we know that he's really been had his hands in almost every part of this, even if he hasn't been the face of the response.

HUNT: Yeah, it's interesting to see him step into that role today. Kristen Holmes for us at the White House -- Kristen, thanks very much for your reporting.

Here to discuss further former defense secretary and former CIA Director Leon Panetta. We're also joined by "Axios" global correspondent, CNN political and global affairs analyst Barak Ravid.

Thank you both very much for being here.

Secretary Panetta, I want to start with you because Rubio has played, Marco Rubio has played a very unique role in the policy making behind the scenes, and he certainly was out there publicly at the very beginning. He seemed to have stepped a little bit back in favor of some other members of the administration. Just they're insisting, and I do want to play this moment for you that Kristen keeps referencing, because it's, of course, a key one from this briefing.

This is rubio saying that operation epic fury, which is the one that took out the Iranian leadership, is over. Let's watch and we'll talk about it on the other side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUBIO: The operation is over. Epic Fury is president notified congress. We're done with that stage of it. Okay. We're now on to this project of freedom.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: What do you take away from that? This project of freedom that he is talking about, especially considering that what he's essentially saying is to get us to a point where we can say that this is really over, we have to go back to the status quo as it was before we started it.

LEON PANETTA, FORMER CIA DIRECTOR: Well, that's -- you know, that's the fundamental problem that I see at this point is that we're still very much involved in this war. They can call it whatever phase they want has concluded. But the reality is we're still at war. There are violations of the ceasefire taking place. The Straits of Hormuz are still closed. And indeed, the effort to try to find some kind of negotiating room on nuclear is still there.

And so, the fundamental issue is what -- where, where is the United States right now? Because the American people are still paying a price for this war. We're paying it in the economy, we're paying it in the price of fuel. Americans are still concerned about where this war is going.

Why has this war not come to an end? That's the fundamental question. And while Rubio does a very good job at explaining the issues, he

really ought to add White House spokesman to being secretary of state and national security advisor, because he's very --

HUNT: I think he's got enough job titles.

PANETTA: He really, he really has a very good way of approaching it. But the bottom line is that when you push all the rhetoric aside, we're still stuck. We're still stuck. Were stuck with -- the Straits of Hormuz is still closed. And I know they're trying to open it, but it's still closed. We're stuck in terms of negotiations because these negotiations are not moving very fast. There's sometimes very confusing in terms of just exactly what's happening.

And so, to a large extent, there's a stalemate here between the United States and the regime in Iran. And the one thing that Rubio did not address is the fact that in the end, regardless of how bad we think the regime is, the regime is still there. And somehow, we've got to find a way to deal with them if we're going to end the war.

HUNT: So, Barak Ravid, can you just walk us through your latest reporting and understanding of the dynamics that the secretary was pointing to that are driving this? I mean, where are the Iranians? What are they willing to talk about? How long are they going to hold out? How do you see it from your vantage point?

BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: So I think the main reason that the war hasn't ended yet is because, Donald Trump and, and his team until now couldn't reach a deal with Iran on the key issue that they're concerned about. And maybe that's the issue, why they went to war in the first place. And this is the concerns about Iran's nuclear program, especially the stockpile of highly enriched uranium. And Iran's enrichment capabilities.

And I think that until now, the Iranians, their -- their position, their maximum position does not meet the Trump's minimum position. I think the gaps are still pretty wide.

I think there's still a disagreement about the list of issues that should be discussed. And sequence and order of those discussions. And until they don't reach such a deal, I don't think Donald Trump can -- can get out of this war because if he gets out now, Iran is still with all of its highly enriched uranium and the nuclear program stays as a loose end that, you know, needs to be fixed.

HUNT: Mr. Secretary, how would you respond to that?

PANETTA: Well, look, there -- it's very clear that the nuclear issue and preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb is what all of this is about. That's how the war began. And that's where we are today, which is how do we take steps to make sure that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.

But to get there requires that there be negotiations. They've got to sit down. This is very complex. It's not easy. It took two years for President Obama to arrive at an agreement. The problem I see right now is that those kinds of careful

negotiations are not going on. They're looking for statements that come out of Iran that indicate maybe some room. They're looking for other signs. Right now, frankly, we're operating with magic because we -- we have not seen a clear presentation of just what exactly Iran is prepared to accept in controlling the enrichment of nuclear fuel. And until we get that answer, this war is going to go on. This war is going to go on.

HUNT: All right. Former Secretary Leon Panetta, "Axios" reporter, Barak Ravid, CNN contributor as well -- thank you both very much. Really appreciate your time today.

Coming up next here in THE ARENA, we're going to talk with the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, California Congressman Robert Garcia. We'll get his thoughts on the crowded race to succeed Gavin Newsom ahead of tonight's debate on CNN.

Plus, the Trump ballroom might soon be known as the billion dollar ballroom. Senate Republicans now pushing to use taxpayer money despite assurances from the president that it won't cost you, the American people, a dime

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is the biggest room in the White House. Not big enough to have anything. We had the king here. We had like 102 people, and we could have had 2,000 people, literally. But this is -- I call it a knockout panel. See, some people would say, oh, that's a curtain. Underneath that curtain is a window. Outside of that window is the new ballroom.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): If this is not a wake-up call, what would be? So here's what we're going to do. We're going to introduce legislation that would authorize $400 million to be spent to secure the pre -- to build the presidential ballroom. The ballroom is much more than just a place to entertain. There'll be infrastructure around it vital to our national security.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: So remember back to last week when some Senate Republicans said they'd be looking for $400 million for the presidents new ballroom in the wake of the White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting. Well, that initial estimate was apparently missing some zeros because Senate Republicans are now attempting to give the U.S. Secret Service some $1 billion with a B for, quote, "security adjustments and upgrades" for that very ballroom project. This provision, which was tucked into a broader immigration

enforcement package, stipulates that the cash could be used for, quote, above ground and below ground security features, but not for, quote, non-security elements.

The request sounds a little different from what the president had long said about this prized ballroom project of his, that it would not be funded with taxpayer dollars.,

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And I'm paying for it. I'm paying for it. The country is not.

We're donating a $400 million ballroom. Myself and donors are giving them free of charge for nothing.

We did this at no charge to the taxpayer whatsoever.

Rich people and people are putting up the money. Zero taxpayer dollars.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: I guess not.

All right. My panel is here in THE ARENA, CNN contributor, host of "The New York Times'" "The Interview", Lulu Garcia-Navarro; CNN political commentator Jonah Goldberg; former Democratic congressman from New York, Joe Crowley; and former Republican congressman from Michigan, Peter Meijer.

[16:20:01]

Welcome to all of you. Thank you all so much for being here.

Congressman, welcome to THE ARENA. It's great to have you on the set.

JOE CROWLEY (D), FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN: First time, Kasie. Great to be with you.

HUNT: Why don't we start with you on this? Because, oops, it sounds like actually no charge has now turned into at least $1 billion because, you know, there's got to be, you know, who knows? A billion -- how this -- this seems to be something that's deeply -- actually deeply, deeply unpopular with the American people.

CROWLEY: Yeah. I think it's on the adage, if you build it, they will come. This is if you destroy it, we will pay for it. The American people will.

And I think given, you know, the deafness out there with the price of gas, the price of groceries, peoples really struggling to get by, the idea that all the focus and attention on the right president is again, creating some entity that he can put his name on or say, I built that which really wasn't necessary. I, in this capacity, I do think we should have looked forward to, you

know, doing this to the regular order, having congress involved, having, you know, all the entities in dc involved in terms of whether or not we should build a ballroom. There was place -- there was space on the on the grounds to do that.

But in the way in which this was done was not appreciated at all by, I think, the American people for the most part. And now, they have to pay for it. I think they'll be more outraged.

HUNT: Well, and the price tag has gone up, as the president's term has gone on. Here was last year, September, October and then December as to how much this was going to cost. And again, now we're sitting here in May of 2026 and we're at $1 billion. But take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: It will cost $250 million. And it will be the -- I think the finest.

It's about $300 million.

Approximately $400 million. I think I'll do it for less but it's 400. I should do it for less. I will do it for less. But just in case I say 400.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Congressman, I think you and I are the same age. Were probably both old enough to remember when the Republican Party was the party of fiscal responsibility.

PETER MEIJER (R), FORMER U.S. CONGRESSMAN: Oh, I'm just thinking about construction, price inflation. And it's tough out there, price --

(LAUGHTER)

HUNT: Tariffs. It's the tariffs that made the ballroom more expensive.

CROWLEY: Wasn't that the Fed had --

MEIJER: Labor costs, permitting.

LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I think they're about to build a moat. This is what they're doing in a turret.

MEIJER: No, I mean, let's be real. I mean, we're not just talking. The ballroom is what everyone's going to see. It's going to be the above ground portion. But this is all also an effort to have an updated presidential emergency operations center. I mean, a multi-story bunker underneath.

I think there was some challenges with talking about something that's inherently going to be relatively classified in its scope, in terms of the public facing messaging, but in that in what was passed out of Senate Judiciary, I mean, that language was very clear around, yeah, taxpayer funds going to the security elements, going to rebuild a bunker. You know, the most recent construction, I think, was during the Obama era where they were expanding sort of the post 9/11 bunker facilities.

You know, this is something that's going to be built with an eye towards the threats today and of the future. And then the next component is going to be, yeah, we have a space to host events on the property. So, you don't have to throw up a tent.

But I don't think that's $1 billion facility just for a ballroom.

HUNT: Well, and if you're trying to explain this to the American people, Jonah.

JONAH GOLDBERG, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yeah. So first of all, just on the math, when you say the price keeps going up, all increases from zero are in fact infinite. And -- and also, I mean, you, you mentioned it very briefly a second ago. They just tried to put a guy in jail for construction overruns on the cost of the Federal Reserve building. And, and now he's talking about how it's going up to $1 billion.

So like, at some point, those sound bites are going to be a next segment on THE ARENA where they're going to play, say, like, why shouldn't you go to jail for cost overruns?

HUNT: My producers are probably working on that right now, actually.

GOLDBERG: But I think the problem is much like the Iraq war, there's a very good argument for regime change. There's a very good argument for, you know, doing something about the missile, the nuclear program. They're very good arguments for a lot of the things that Trump does in the abstract.

But he reaches for the good arguments pretextual after he commits in this sort of ham-fisted way. So like, yeah, there's a good argument for a ballroom. There's a good argument to build a new state-of-the- art bat cave underneath the ballroom. That's all great.

But like, he -- he lied about what it was going to cost. He lied about the rules of doing it. He bulldozed the thing in a weekend. He lied his way into the operation of Venezuela. He lied his way into the operation in Iran.

And then when the price, the -- when the bill comes in, he all of a sudden puts it on other people and says, you have to be support me on this. And I just don't think it's smart politics.

HUNT: Lulu?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Well, I think that's how he made his money, right? Like, this is Donald Trump. And, and we all know that this is how he built his empire. You know, never paying his creditors and passing the bill to somebody else. So, I think that's in keeping.

I think it's politically catastrophic. I think it's a gift to the Democrats for the midterms and beyond, I'll say. He talks about his ballroom more than he talks about the Iraq war. I mean, he talks about his ballroom all the time. People come and visit him and he brings out his little toy ballroom and shows it to them. I mean, this is like something out of a satire.

[16:25:03]

This ballroom is going to be the monument to, I think, his political demise.

HUNT: Congressman, I mean, if you are running for Senate in a place, say, like Michigan, right, which has competitive terrain, are you defending this ballroom as the Republican in the race?

MEIJER: You hope you're not talking about a ballroom. You hope you're talking about issues that actually matter to the folks in your state. Talk to them about re-industrialization, talk to them about manufacturing expansion. Talking about how this administration policies.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: But isn't how this government spends your money while you are hurting because of a war that this government is executing, actually something that is of interest to the American people?

MEIJER: Absolutely. How the government spending money is of interest. You know, the recent report that came out on fraud in Ohio and Medicaid fraud that's going on in Ohio and Minnesota and California, those are very real and tangible concerns. They're not as sexy as a ballroom to talk about. You can't hold a little model of tax dollars being siphoned off through fraud.

HUNT: Like, are you wishing that the president was like less into the ballroom and more into the other things when he, you know, uses the biggest megaphone in American politics?

GOLDBERG: The guy was a ball pit 50 years or something like that.

MEIJER: I think there's some, some, you know, virology and bacteriological concerns, so -- as somebody who recently came down with something terrible at a Chuck E. Cheese, I'm very empathetic to having to the presidents focus on hygiene as well.

CROWLEY: He's -- he's even expanded it now to other parts of the city in terms of wanting to build, you know, places to eat down by the pool, the reflection pool, cleaning up the reflection pool, doing all these other commercial events.

MEIJER: There isn't anywhere to eat lunch by the reflecting pool, I will say.

CROWLEY: No many. Not many

MEIJER: The triumphal arch.

CROWLEY: You know, it's like.

(LAUGHTER) HUNT: Yeah, no.

Jonah, I want to give you the last word on this because you know, as we were covering the, the shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, I mean, this was something that he mentioned right after he went back to the White House was one of the first things he said. Now, obviously, there is a security argument that, you know, everybody was reminded of.

But, it also kind of gives you some insight. And we went back and watched the clips from 2011, when Obama had mocked President Trump. And I had heard the joke that Obama had made over and over again. What I had forgotten is that he had displayed an image of what it would look like if president, if Donald Trump was in the White House and it was a White House gilded in gold, right?

I mean, is that kind of where we've landed?

GOLDBERG: Yeah. Well, it's difficult to do satire and have it not come true in the last decade and all sorts of ways.

So, but -- look, I mean, I'm kind of a broken record on this. One of the reasons why Kamala Harris lost was because this ad that the Trump campaign came out saying, he cares about you, she cares about they them and all that.

And think of all the issues having to do with Trump right now. It is so much of it is about him. It's like it's a me-ocracy in some ways. And he just wants to talk about himself.

I agree with Lulu. He's very comfortable talking about construction stuff because that happens to a lot of people his age is they talk about the things they have deep muscle memory on, and he likes talking about building things.

HUNT: Me-ocracy, I think I'm going to have to write that one down and bring it back.

All right. Coming up next, here in THE ARENA, the stage is set literally a live look at where the seven of the candidates for California governor will face off just hours from now, right here on CNN. Polls show it's really anyone's game.

Plus, speaking of voters, they're voting today. It's Tuesday and some key primaries that are testing the power of the Trump endorsement.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel like if you really want to see society improve in the future, you really need to cast a vote for what you believe in. And, you know, and also just so my kids can have a better future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [16:33:12]

HUNT: All right. Welcome back.

Here is a live look at the stage where in just a few hours, seven contenders hoping to be the next governor of California will face off in a CNN primetime debate in the state. All the candidates compete in a single primary, jungle primary. The top two, regardless of party, will advance to the general election.

CNN's Kyung Lah joins us now from the debate site.

Kyung, wonderful to see you. This race has been wild for a number of reasons. It's very crowded. Mail in ballots have already been sent out in California.

What are you looking for tonight

KYUNG LAH, CNN SENIOR INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: What I'm looking for is let's start with the ballot that you just talked about. Okay. It's very long. So, when you say crowded, this is what voters are seeing.

Let's say you're not paying attention. You want to go to who am I going to vote for for governor? There's this list. Oh, and then look, there's more. This entire page is full as far as the -- as the top people who are going to be on CNN stage, it's still crowded. It is seven people and not. And none of them really has been a breakaway star.

None has really captured the majority of the vote. So given how all of this is splintered across Republican and Democratic candidates, what I'm going to personally be looking for, and what a lot of these candidates who are going there for, is to capture that voter interest and try to bring some type of coalition so they can make the November ballot, as you say, the top two will be on the November ballot regardless of party.

And some of the critical issues that are going to certainly be talked about today is the price of everything in California. Just driving here, the price of gas per gallon is more than $6. It's averaging about six and a half dollars.

My producer, Matt Friedman, said he just filled up his Subaru for $125.

[16:35:04]

We're not talking about a full size SUV. I'm talking about a Subaru. So these are the sorts of issues.

And in this community in Monterey Park, California, the median price is more than $1 million for a home. So, it is just become so unaffordable to a lot of everyday people that these candidates are going to have to speak to those issues and break out -- Kasie.

HUNT: Yeah. Every time I see B-roll with the footage of the gas prices in California, I -- I'm shocked all over again.

Kyung Lah, thank you very much.

And of course, this is your reminder to tune in tonight to the CNN primetime debates on the air right here at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. You can also watch, of course, on the CNN app.

Joining us now to discuss more, a top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, Congressman Robert Garcia of California. He recently endorsed his former colleague, Katie Porter, in that state's gubernatorial race.

Congressman, thanks very much. Always good to see you. Thank you for being here.

Of course, this race, also upended by the allegations against Eric Swalwell, who had been a top contender, a former colleague of yours has since dropped out of the race.

I -- I saw that you endorsed porter. This comes, of course, in the wake of allegations against her made by. How about how she treated some of her staff members. In some ways, this had been her race to lose.

Why do you think she's the right person for the job?

REP. ROBERT GARCIA (D-CA): Yeah. Look, I got to know Katie as a freshman coming to Congress just a few years ago. She was a real mentor on the oversight committee and brought a lot of us freshmen in as a -- as a mentor.

And she was someone that we really all looked at her style of taking on kind of the big -- big corporate CEOs, folks that were taking on the little guy and the working-class people.

At the same time, we represent overlapping areas. And so, a lot of the areas that she represents, I represent here in Orange County and in Long Beach. And so, she's a -- she's a -- I think she'd be a great governor.

But look, we have good candidates. It's not just Katie Porter. When you talk about folks like former Secretary Becerra or even Tom Steyer. We're going to have a good group of Democrats on that stage tonight. What we need to ensure is that one of them or two of them make the top two.

HUNT: Yeah, I --

GARCIA: We're certainly going to have one. It'd be great to see two Democrats make it.

HUNT: I was going to say, I mean, I hear you arguing. You have a great slate of Democratic candidates. However. I mean, there was a brief time during this race where there was concern that two Republicans might come out on top because of the splintering of this field. How can you argue that that doesn't speak to the weakness of the Democratic field?

GARCIA: I mean, look, I think we have a top two system in California, which, by the way, I don't support. I haven't supported -- got implemented. I hope we change it at some point, but the system is what it is.

The reality is, is that polling after polling were looking at makes it clear that well likely end up with one Republican and the chances of it being a second Democrat, I think are high. So we're going to have a Republican-Dem race.

Now look, in a -- in a -- in a scenario where we have a lot of Dems voting, could we get two Dems across the finish line? Absolutely. I think it's highly unlikely well end up with two Republicans.

And we have quality Democrats running. And I think that's really important to note. When you look at the top three or four Democrats that are polling, they all have probably a pathway to win. And that's what we'll watch tonight.

HUNT: What do you say to critics who look at California and they say it encapsulates the cost of living problems that they argue that Democrats created the cost of living problems in California, whether its housing, whether its gas with regulation and other things, because it is one of the most expensive places to live in the country. And Democrats have been in charge.

GARCIA: Look, Democrats in California, we produce more federal support than any other state and then some across the country. When you think about programs that people are benefiting in across the Midwest, across the South, much of those resources are coming from California, from California innovation, from Silicon Valley, from our economy, which is still one of the strongest, not just in the country, but around the world.

Look, we have real issues here in the state. At the top of that list is issues around affordability of homes, being able to purchase a home, rent. What's happening right now across -- across the state on gas prices.

But much of that is also -- I'm going to put right now the blame on Donald Trump. Gas prices are going out of control because of the war in Iran. Affordability has never focused on.

And so, at the end of the day, what's happening at the national level, which is what house Republicans or the president are impacting our state. But our current governor is doing everything we can to push back on Donald Trump. And I am confident that whoever gets elected governor in this round will do the same thing.

HUNT: All right. While I have you, I do also want to ask you about the job you have here in Washington. You're the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, potentially poised to take the gavel if Democrats win in the fall.

And on that point, CNN has been reporting our Alayna Treene reports that the White House counsel's office has been holding private briefings with top administration officials about how to best defend themselves from potential congressional investigations should you win the majority.

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What is your response to that and which administration official is at the very top of your list for such an investigation, should you win the majority?

GARCIA: Well, look, if you work at the White House or in the administration, you should absolutely preserve your documents and understand and know that oversight Democrats, particularly when were in the majority, we're going to ensure that we stop the blatant corruption, any sort of pay to play that might be happening. There's a lot of reports of multiple agencies that there are critical questions that need to be asked about what's actually happening and who's benefiting.

And so, what our perspective is, I'm glad that the White House is preparing, because we're going to have a lot of questions and a lot of subpoenas going out the door, folks that we want to talk to are folks like Stephen Miller, clearly, Todd Blanche, RFK Jr.

There is a lot of questions that need to be answered. We're going to continue our investigation on Epstein, but at the same time, at the center of what we're going to do is taking on Trump family corruption and a family that, in our opinion, has enriched themselves off of our government.

HUNT: All right. Congressman Robert Garcia, thanks very much for spending some time with us. I appreciate it.

All right. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, Republican revenge. But for who? Voters weigh in today in a series of high stakes primaries that are going to show us just how much of a kingmaker, or at least will give us some insight into how much of a kingmaker Donald Trump still is in Republican Party politics.

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TRUMP: A couple of them I like. A couple of them I can't stand, actually, if you want to know the truth.

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TRUMP: And they took that endorsement and they went on to win big. I haven't -- I haven't had a bad endorsement yet, right? He says yes.

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HUNT: In Ohio and Indiana today, voters are going to be stress testing President Trump's grip on his party and his historically powerful endorsement, as voters choose which candidates will appear on the ballot in November's crucial midterm elections. Tonight's elections kick off a month of primaries that we are going to see basically every Tuesday. In fact, every Tuesday, as seen as a broad test of the president's popularity, the test is going to come at a time when President Trump is underwater on his handling of key issues that helped him win in 2024. The top of those issues is, of course, the economy.

But another one you can see there, immigration was a huge strength for and no longer is that way.

Joining our panel now, someone who's reported extensively on the immigration issue, NBC News senior homeland security correspondent Julia Ainsley. She is also the author of a new book that is out today "Undue Process: The Inside Story of Trump's Mass Deportation Program".

Julia, welcome to the panel. It's great to have you.

I want to dig into the immigration issue in a second, but I kind of want to start broadly, Jonah Goldberg, this is going to be a test for Trump. In Indiana in particular, there was resistance to his redistricting wishes that they did not go along with. He's been putting some pressure on that to try to essentially punish his enemies more than help his friends.

Where do you think the president is right now in terms of influencing? You know, one of the biggest problems for Republicans who've been trying to win congressional elections is that you can't necessarily win with him when he's acting like the chaos agent that voters have said that they don't like, but you really can't win without him because without the base, you're -- I should I'm about to use a phrase I probably shouldn't say on TV.

GOLDBERG: Yeah. So, his superpower politically has always been his ability to influence Republican primaries. And he's trying to demonstrate that again. Now, I think that part of the point of this really, really is it's not the merits of redistricting. It is to delay lame duck status to show that Republicans can't defy him. And, and exact a price, the amount of money they've spent is, you know, I don't know, $8 million, $10 million for a normal state senate race is like $200,000.

So, I think there are a bunch of these guys are going to lose. And I think that's a shame, but I don't think it has anything to do other than trying to maintain a grip on the Republican Party.

HUNT: Yeah. So, Julia Ainsley, I want to talk a little bit about your new book and some of the new reporting that you have in it, but particularly one of the things that we have seen over the course of the first two years of this administration, they did what they said they were going to do on border security, which the American people largely seem to be with the president on. But that's not been the case on enforcement in the interior of the United States.

Where do the numbers stand now as to where the president is, and what did you learn in the course of your -- of reporting this book that speaks to that?

JULIA AINSLEY, NBC NEWS SENIOR HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, what I learned, Kasie, is that what started as Trump's biggest political asset really turned into his biggest political liability, and he's now losing when it comes to immigration enforcement, not as much as he is on issues like Iran or the economy, but it is now a losing issue for him. And that's why we've seen such a tone shift, because it's come down from the White House. It started with getting Greg Bovino out of Minneapolis after the fatal shooting there in January, then the ousting of Kristi Noem.

We started to see a softer shift, especially as senator, as Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has put a pause on some of those policies. But really, what we've seen was an expansion of executive power when Trump had immigration as a political asset. And the book really walks you through exactly how they expanded executive power, including by increasing surveillance of immigrants who come here legally, like foreign students, a master deportation plan that ended up with the head of ICE getting reassigned because he disagreed with the policies of going into people's homes without a judicial warrant.

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And we saw time and time again, ICE being told to go after people based on their characteristics rather than crimes they committed. In fact, ICE officers were told not even to fill out worksheets anymore because they really didn't know who it was going to be in a day when they went out to go make arrests.

So, all of that I lay out in the book. But on the broader political messaging of all of this, yes, we're in a cooling off period now, and a lot of that has everything to do with what you're talking about. It's midterms.

But ICE officials I'm speaking to now said that they're told to cool off on the spectacle, at least not bring immigration back into the headlines in the same way that it was, but not to undo anything in a way that they can't ramp this machine back up again post midterms. So right now, the strategy you're seeing, the reason you're not seeing images like you did in January is specifically because of those numbers and the upcoming elections.

HUNT: Yeah.

Lulu Garcia-Navarro, you want to jump in on that?

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Yeah, I mean, I think it's fascinating to hear, how immigration, the central issue that really was one that he was so strong on has now become this massive liability. And I think it's exactly right that they are just biding their time. I mean, nothing has materially changed, I think, in this administration. They've sort of changed the figureheads.

But the person who's driving all this, of course, is Stephen Miller, and he's still there.

HUNT: And he was, Congressman, at the top of Robert Garcia's list of people that he wants to talk to if Democrats take the House.

MEIJER: No, that is going to be the easiest topic for the Oversight Committee to do. There'll be a lot of fun material that they're going to have. I mean, it's -- I know it's something that the White House is planning and expecting as you should plan and expect when there's a change of power in Congress. I think the one thing the White House can also count on is some Democrats getting way over their skis and getting too excited because they see an opportunity to make a name for themselves in 2028.

HUNT: Yeah, Congressman Crowley, I mean, what's -- how do you think Democrats should thread that needle? What is the right way to -- I mean, the numbers show it's not popular with Americans, but Democrats. I mean, the Congressman's not wrong. Democrats do tend to sometimes overreach.

CROWLEY: They do. My accounts would be put impeachment aside. I don't think, you know, that should be on their table. The president will be gone in two years. We hope. And I do think, though, the oversight piece is, is real, they need to do that. I think there needs to be balanced.

And right now, there's a lack of balance in government. It's all one way and there's no one pushing back, which I think is interesting about Indiana is that these senators, I have to believe some of them have been there for a while. They have the confidence that they've been there for a while. They know their constituency. Constituency knows them.

I think people are longing for heroes to come out of pushback against this president. The -- some that do survive will become the president's enemies. And this is happening at the state level. It's not even on the federal level yet. I think that's an interesting point here, too.

HUNT: Yeah. Julia Ainsley, in your reporting, I mean, the president himself, did you gain walk us through. I feel like when I was looking through your -- your book, you talk about how the president himself was very focused on the numbers, how many people were being detained? Were his aides able to convince him that the polling was so bad on this that he needed to change course, at least in public, at least on TV.

AINSLEY: Not through the shooting up until the shooting of Alex Pretti. In fact, even with what you saw in Chicago, where Greg Bovino, the border patrol commander, was throwing tear gas canisters into crowds, you were hearing stories about children going to Halloween parades in the middle of a tear gas cloud. Even then, President Trump went on "60 Minutes" and said that he didn't think ICE was going far enough, when he was asked if they were going too far.

And so, you're right, it continued to be about the numbers. And in fact, we detail in the book sometimes where the president himself got very angry. There was a flashpoint in March of 2025 when he realized his numbers, his monthly deportation numbers were actually lower than President Biden's. Much of that, because Biden was turning away so many people at the border. And so that beefed up his numbers.

But there was a lot of frustration. And that filtered, of course, to Stephen Miller. And then it went down to the heads of ICE and Border Patrol. And there's a part of the book where Stephen Miller says, you all know what an illegal looks like. And what he's saying is start to go after characteristics rather than underlying crimes.

And they had a Supreme Court win in the summer of last year that will allow them to continue to make those arrests. And they easily could should the political winds shift back in that favor.

But Stephen Miller -- Lulu is absolutely right. He's still there. He's still having daily calls with ICE and CBP. And should the president's anger over this issue or him thinking he isn't going far enough, he isn't looking tough enough on immigration, ever come back, then they can bring all of these things back up again.

HUNT: Hmm.

Jonah Goldberg, big picture here. I mean, this this seems to speak to the way that Trump is conducting the entirety of this second term of his presidency. And maybe it's what you said. Maybe it's just the fact that he doesn't want to be seen as a lame duck.

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But on Iran, and in that ties directly with the economy, right? He didn't bother to try to sell it to the American people before he went ahead and did it. He just did it. And this was the result for his numbers.

Where does that, you know, leave him? And the Republican Party heading into "26?

GOLDBERG: That's the -- that's the problem. Right. So, he thought it was going to be another Venezuela, that he would get all the credit for it because it would go great without getting any buy in. He gets all the blame for it.

HUNT: All right. Julia Ainsley, thank you so much. Congratulations on the book. Thanks very much to my panel as well. Really appreciate you guys being here.

Thanks to you at home for watching as well. Don't go anywhere.

"THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER" starts after this quick break.

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