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CNN's The Arena with Kasie Hunt
Trump Draws Fierce Backlash After Suggesting Iran Could "Take Out" Los Angeles Or San Diego; New: Cook Political Report Moves Three Senate Races Towards Dems; Trump Backtracks On Taxpayer-Funded Campaign-Style Ads. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired October 06, 2026 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:00]
BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Seashells, more than a million bucks for seashells.
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: Yeah, it makes me want to go to a garage sale.
SANCHEZ: Got to take a closer look when you go to these garage sales. That's some amazing finds.
KEILAR: Better do it.
SANCHEZ: THE ARENA WITH KASIE HUNT starts right now.
(MUSIC)
KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Hi, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. Welcome to THE ARENA. It's great to have you with us on this Tuesday.
Four weeks, we are now just four weeks from Election Day. Gas prices, as you probably know, remain high. Diesel is even higher.
And now, President Donald Trump has offered this startling new way to justify his decision to start a war with Iran.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Stop them from having a nuclear weapon. So, I was riding and I made a speech there and I passed a gas station $1.95 a gallon. I passed another station, $1.85 a gallon. We'll have it lower than that in a very short period of time.
And again, remember, With the word, it's just artificial. It's a little bit high. It's a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe.
They can take out a city. Let them take -- let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. That's -- this is a very small price to pay, and it's going to be over very soon.
(END VIDEO CLIP) HUNT: Those remarks eliciting strong condemnation from the Democratic leaders of L.A. and San Diego. which are, of course, home to more than 10 million Americans, including more than 100,000 active-duty service members.
The California governor, Gavin Newsom, calling the president's comments, quote, "disgusting and disqualifying," end quote. The L.A. mayor, Karen Bass, telling Trump, quote, "Keep L.A. out of your damn mouth." And San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria saying, quote, "We are not expendable, and we are never a small price to pay."
The White House unsurprisingly characterized the reaction as a freak out with communications director Stephen Cheung saying, quote, "He was clearly stating U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran hadn't been stopped," end quote.
But this is not the only instance where the president's recent messaging has, let's say, strayed from the economic issues that voters say are top of mind. In just the last few days, he has called one Democratic candidate a jihadist. He has attacked another with a transphobic slur. He has criticized Fox News for not being loyal enough. He has given out a Republican senator cell phone number in a fight over daylight saving time. And he's refused to return millions in taxpayer money that he used to create and run ads praising himself.
Remember, there are just four weeks to go.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: About Washington and Lincoln, they say, you're better, sir. I mean, you're better. You got to be a little smart for that one, that's not for bodybuilders. That's for a different kind of bodybuilder up here.
Red-dyed diesel, you know what that is? I don't know what the hell it is, but whatever it is, it's supposed to be very good.
Natalie, come out. Come out.
(CHANTING)
TRUMP: You remind me like "The Price is Right". Thank you, Natalie. Come on.
This perfect person comes up, hands it, walks up. We should go on television with this show, right?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Okay. On that note, let's get off the sidelines, head into THE ARENA. My panel is here.
CNN senior analyst -- political analyst Ron Brownstein; the managing editor at "The Cook Political Report", Carrie Dann; former communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris, Jamal Simmons; and Republican strategist Brad Todd. They're both CNN political commentators.
We are also joined by CNN senior political commentator Ana Navarro.
Welcome to all of you. Thank you all so much for being here.
Ron, I got to start with you just because you're in here from the West Coast, West Coast.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah.
HUNT: How's it going over back home?
BROWNSTEIN: You know, as you can imagine, his syntax was so convoluted that the White House explanation of what he really meant is plausible. But, you know, every part --
HUNT: Very generous.
BROWNSTEIN: Every part of that, every part, like that Iran was on the brink of having the ability to deliver intercontinental nuclear weapons. I mean, just, you know, it just each piece of it, each piece of the chain is incredibly fragile.
The broader point, like you do start to wonder if the president has lost his ability to move public opinion. I know he's so omnipresent it's hard to say that, but I do wonder, his approval rating is now what, 10, 12 points lower than it was in 2018, lower than Bush in '06, Obama in '10, Clinton in '94.
He goes out. His message is a sort of scattershot. If you're asking -- if the core questions Republicans have to answer is, do you have anything that you're planning that is going to make my life better? It's hard to see how he's helping them advance that in any way.
[16:05:04]
HUNT: And not only is he, as we just pointed out, a little bit all over the place in his messaging, he is actively on the trail attacking Republican candidates who are on the ballot. Let's watch a sequence of them, shall we say?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody. And I have to always remember that, because he could be a pain in the ass sometimes, I'll be honest.
Is he here, by the way? Oh, there he is. Good. I didn't even know he was here. I don't care.
Jon Husted, now that he's a senator, I've gotten to know him very well. He's a pain in the ass. He's called me all the time. He always wants money.
Pete's brutal. Pete Ricketts says, I said, I don't want to talk to him. He's always asking for money. (END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Brad Todd, with friends like these.
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: There have been plenty of times that candidates for Congress had wished they could get distanced from an unpopular president through attacks back and forth. And so there might be some sort of perverse value here. I think the president's frustrated with Ken Paxton because Ken Paxton turned out to be what we all said he was. He's a bad fundraiser with an unpopularity complex.
So, the President's endorsement of him did not seem to fix that problem. It's one of those things like you go to the ceramic store, you break it, you buy it. So now the President's having to try to deal with that with Ken Paxton. I think he's joking with Pete Ricketts and trying to talk about their relationship and how deep it is with some of those other guys.
I actually think he's doing the right thing by campaigning in red states and in red areas of states where we can grow turnout. Grand Isle, Nebraska is a small place. Presidents don't come there. And one of the things I found in researching a book I did with Selena Zito on Trump's first win is That made a major difference. When he went into these small areas where presidents don't come, people felt like that meant he cared about them.
And it can be motivational for them to vote. So, he's never going to be a disciplined speaker at these rallies. He's never going to say the bullets that I would write for him if I had the opportunity. But I think that him doing it actually is the thing he can contribute, is to go way off Broadway, go to the demarkets, go where the low propensity Republicans are, and try to motivate them.
HUNT: Jamal?
JAMAL SIMMONS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, I spent years talking to Democratic candidates about how they present and that it's about the voters. It's not about you. It's always about them and their future, not about you and even you and your past, right? It's about their future. And the president is sort of throwing all that out the window right now. And what he's doing is going around making it about himself all the time.
Now I do think Brad's on to something that's not all crazy talk. I mean, he is trying to gin up his people, remind them of the --
HUNT: There's a strategy.
SIMMONS: Right? The strategy's there to get people focused on it.
But when you do things like say we'll sacrifice an American city in whatever context it is he wanted to do it, especially a month after 9/11, it's just at the 10-year anniversary, I mean 25-year anniversary, it just seems the wrong thing to do, the wrong thing to say at the wrong time.
HUNT: Well, and if the basic rule of politics is that it's supposed to be, Carrie, about addition and not subtraction.
CARRIE DANN, MANAGING EDITOR, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Do no harm is sort of a key idea here. And also, just when you look at the money, right, if you take away the polling, take away the vibes, look at where the parties are deciding to spend their money, if somebody had told this panel a year and a half ago that Republicans would be essentially forfeiting the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races, we all would have politely patted them on the head and said, like, that's not real.
TODD: Ron would have taken a big wager off me.
(LAUGHTER)
DANN: Right, exactly. And that's where we're seeing the Republican Party. They're giving up resources in states that should have been very, very competitive races and putting them into states that Donald Trump won by, you know, 16, 18 points, like Kansas, like South Carolina, a race that should really not be on anybody's competitive map.
That is a direct reflection, I think, of the president's flagging approval rating and also his sort of inability to focus on the economic messages that most people in his party are desperate for him to either talk about or a step out of the way and not be in the spotlight.
BROWNSTEIN: Well, it's not clear what they can say, though, at this point, right? What's unique, I think, about this election year is that voters are not just unhappy because the economy is bad and Trump is suffering from proximity. He's the president while they're unhappy. They attribute their economic squeeze directly to things that he has done --
HUNT: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: -- to the tariffs and the war and that Republicans have voted for. So, the connection is tighter than it usually is. And he gives no indication that he's willing to change direction on anything. And I think that makes it very hard for them to say that they are offering a change in direction on anything.
HUNT: Yeah.
Well, I mean, Ana Navarro, we spent the first half of this second Trump term essentially wondering at what point he would start to own the economy. And to Ron's point, he has specifically done things that people now associate with him. I want to play two things here for you and for our audience, what Donald Trump is currently worried about based on what he was talking to reporters about this afternoon, because it wasn't the economy if you listened to him.
[16:10:04]
Let's watch him talk about his reflecting pool, among other things.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The reflecting pool is totally complete. We changed the old pipes. We wanted to get open for July 4th.
And now we went and got rid of all of the old pipes, which we were going to do later and during the winter. We did it. And I think it's almost complete.
Also, the grass, which they destroyed, you know, they destroyed the brand-new beautiful grass at the reflecting pool. The grass was destroyed with the letters, the famous letters. And that's been just about completed, too. We put all the grass in, again.
And this is brand new grass. This is all with about 200 loads of brand new topsoil. So this is going to be very healthy grass.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: So, he's not saying that he's worried about Americans' kitchen table issues. He's not saying he's even worried about their own lawn care issues. He's worried about his own lawn, OK?
And then one of his cabinet members was recently on a TV network, another TV network, talking about how much said groceries and kitchen table items actually cost the American people. It didn't go so well. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DR. MEHMET OZ, ADMINISTRATOR, CMS: I brought you something as an example. We went grocery shopping, stick of butter, bag of peanuts. Butter in America, that's about a buck for a stick like this. If I charge you $10 --
LAURA INGRAHAM, FOX NEWS HOST: Or are you shopping? It's not a buck, it's four.
OZ: I just bought this, so it's close to that.
INGRAHAM: OK. OZ: Maybe it's going bad.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Ana Navarro, what does this say about -- how does this explain? Because I feel like it actually may explain everything about why Americans right now are not thrilled with President Trump and his administration.
ANA NAVARRO, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Kasie, for the last 10 minutes I've heard you and the panel of my friends discuss all of these things that are going on as if it was, I don't know, like if we're discussing something serious, something normal.
Nobody has said what to me is plainly obvious. He is increasingly unwell. The things he is doing and he is saying are cuckoo, crazy, certifiable, insane. And if it was anybody other than Donald Trump saying these things and doing these things, their families would have them committed or at the very least checked for what the hell might be going on.
Why we measure Donald Trump with a different stick and let him get away with completely unhinged behavior is beyond me. He is the president of the United States and has the nuclear codes. That we are here debating the fact that he invited Iran to take out two American cities because they are blue cities and they're in a blue state that he doesn't like, though he has a golf course in L.A.
It's insane, you guys. It is insane that at a time when Americans can't pay for meat or having a hard time paying for gas or having a hard time paying for diesel, he is absolutely fixated, obsessed with the reflecting pool, with the ballroom, with all of these other things that Americans don't care about is insane. So, can we just call a spade a spade and say this man is not well?
HUNT: So, Ana, I mean, voters, and I think the fact that Trump's got in office for a second time, voters have been willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on a lot of this for a lot of years. And if anything, people sort of had to learn this lesson.
So, what's changed now? Yeah, what's different now?
NAVARRO: Diesel $6, and gas is $4. And meat is practically unaffordable for most Americans. And we are in a forever war, in a war that we don't see the end to, despite the fact that he promised he would not get into forever wars. That's the difference.
HUNT: Fair. I mean --
NAVARRO: Americans are hurting.
HUNT: Brad Todd, what do you have to say to that?
BRAD TODD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, there's no doubt the diesel is a problem. And I think when you compare it, combine it with interest rates, and some tariff unpredictability. That's the running theme in why we have a lot of close races in the Midwest.
I don't think you'd see Nebraska or Kansas in as much trouble if it weren't for those three things. And some of those things the President did by deliberate choice, and perhaps he didn't explain why he was doing them.
My criticism of the tariffs mostly has been that they've been irregular and that he didn't say this is all to box out China, it's a long-term play. My criticism of the war, which I mostly support, has been he never told us here's my objective, period, and we're going to do it until it's done.
And so, I think when people see the prices to be paid for things that they've not been fully told why they're doing them, that's when you see your own base getting a little bit shaky. I do think that the monetary advantage we have in these campaigns is going to matter. Most of the polls you've seen so far have counted on Republicans not showing up.
[16:15:01]
You looked at that group of "New York Times" polls that came out this last week, it was showing an electorate that's seven points to the left of where 2024 was. That means they're counting on Republicans not showing up. Well, it's our job to make sure they do show up.
HUNT: Ron, do you think? What's your sense of that last point?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, this is the question, right? So, Trump's disapproval, as I said, is worse than it was in '18, worse than Obama in '10, worse than Bush in '06, worse than Clinton in '94. But Democrats are not winning at the moment as many voters who disapprove of Trump as they did in his first term. That's why those races are staying close.
The question is, do those Trump-disapproving voters who lean right, do they really show up? If enough of them do show up, Republicans are much stronger.
You know, the entire battlefield is red, right? I mean, there are only eight House Republicans in districts that voted for Harris after redistricting. Collins is the only Republican senator in a state that voted for Harris. You're talking about states with a Republican DNA, right?
But even in those states, Trump is now majority negative, way over 50 percent disapproval. So what do those traditionally Republican voters who disapprove of Trump, what do they do at the end? Do they vote Democratic? Do they come back in line, as Brad is suggesting? Or do they just stay home?
And that is probably the difference between a good night for Democrats and a great night for Democrats.
TODD: It is still a question. I agree.
HUNT: All right. Ana Navarro, thank you so much. Always appreciate having you. Really hope to come back soon.
The rest of our panel is going to stand by here.
Coming up next in THE ARENA, something you don't see very often. President Trump backtracking on something, something you've already paid for.
But first, two presidents set to converge on the same state. Barack Obama and Donald Trump both expected to hit the trail in Michigan. One Senate candidate thinks both visits will help his campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: Donald, come to Michigan.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah --
EL-SAYED: Donald, please -- please, I'm asking you, come to Michigan, all right? Your -- clearly, your candidate can't speak for himself. He doesn't have anything to say. Clearly, you are the answer.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:21:22]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KRISTEN WELKER, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: Is he going to campaign with you, Dr. El-Sayed?
EL-SAYED: Look, I really hope so. We talked a lot about what it'll take to win. Obviously, his presence here in Michigan would mean so much to the coalition that helped elect him. So, I hope that we get to campaign together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed now getting his wish. Former President Barack Obama will campaign in Michigan with El-Sayed later this month as he ramps up his campaign presence in the final weeks of the 2026 cycle. Obama, who remains the Democratic Party's most popular figure, has already appeared alongside Senate candidates in Iowa and Texas and has taped two dozen ads with Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.
This, as the nonpartisan "Cook Political Report", some breaking news here, just today shifted three more Senate ratings in Democrats' favor. The highlight, Kansas, which now moves from lean Republican to toss-up. You can also see that New Hampshire goes from toss-up to lean Democrat. North Carolina, from lean to likely Democrat.
Joining our panel in THE ARENA, progressive Democratic strategist Corbin Trent. He'll be part of our conversation.
But, Carrie Dann, I want to start with you, since these are the race ratings that you all just moved at Cook. What's the matter with Kansas?
(LAUGHTER)
DANN: That's a great question. So, Adam Hamilton is a Democratic candidate there. I know you've had him on your show. He is a very unique communicator. I think there have been Republicans who told our Senate editor, Jessica Taylor, who moved these ratings today, that he is one of the most talented candidates that Democrats have recruited this cycle.
He does not necessarily sound like a generic Democrat. He is a megachurch pastor. He can speak very fluently about faith. And Roger Marshall, I think even Republicans will say privately, was
not taking both the political environment and Hamilton talent seriously enough. No, I think Republicans think that they can solve this problem with money. They've moved resources into the state. It's not a terribly expensive state to advertise in, so those resources will probably go far. They think they have some avenues for attack against Hamilton, both by painting him as a, you know, a typical Democrat and also a child sex abuse scandal that happened decades ago in the church that he works in.
Hamilton also has some pretty good attacks against Marshall, though. And you take that all against the background of what we were just discussing in the first segment about the agricultural economy in Kansas, the cost of fertilizer, the cost of fuel, beef costs. I mean, these are things that are happening in the Midwest that are making it a unique headache for the Republican Party right now.
HUNT: Yeah. So Corbin Trent, I mean, as that's happening in Kansas, the race in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed quickly becoming a national figure, right, as a progressive. The question has been, though, Michigan has voted for Trump, right? And that seat is currently held by a Democrat. It's competitive in no small part because El Sayed is the nominee there.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was actually recently quoted in an audio recording that was obtained by "The New York Times" saying this, quote, "What we do is that we break open the entire political calculus in America -- period. Because if you can win," Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said, "if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere." "Anywhere," she added, for emphasis.
Is she right?
CORBIN TRENT, PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think that that's definitely an indicator that things are changing. What we just saw from Cook is another indicator of it. Angie Nixon is outperforming people's expectations on the polls there. Justin Pearson is within striking distance in polls in Tennessee nine, even after it's been gerrymandered to include a bunch of the southern border of Tennessee, outside of Memphis.
[16:25:03]
You know, this is an election where Republicans have massive headwinds and Democrats have a really massive tailwind. So, you're seeing people, I think, that are also really good candidates, like Abdul is, do these really incredible things that would have seemed hard to do in other times.
But, you know, does it mean that anybody can win anywhere? I think that's going to come down to how Democrats handle a majority if we get one in '27. If we go in with the House and Senate, I think what determines whether or not Democrats go on a roll or not is if we start delivering for people right out of the gate. You know, whether -- you know, if Trump's in the way, then we make sure that people know Trump's in the way of delivering. Right now, your panel was just talking in the last segment about
prices. What's interesting about fuel prices is that Exxon's profits quarter over quarter are up 250 percent. The profits of these oil companies are so outrageous that even Donald Trump was saying that they need to maybe make a little less money, you know?
So, the question is, do Democrats get in there, start trying to get relief, start trying to, you know, do sort of the old-school Democrat, you know, working-class gig, and deliver for people? And if they do, then I think anybody can win anywhere.
HUNT: All right. So speaking of old-school Democrats, Jamaal Simmons, you know --
(LAUGHTER)
HUNT: I'm kidding. I'm mostly kidding.
Let's talk about President Obama for a second. And of course, you know Michigan so incredibly well. He is one of the most popular actually, he's the most popular former president of the United States. He sits at 57 percent. The next most popular is George W. Bush at 42, OK, percent.
So really, you know, he's got something there. And of course, for El Sayed in Michigan, knitting together the community that he comes from with Black voters in Detroit is like the project. Let's just remind people what it looks like when Barack Obama goes to Detroit.
Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: I think Michelle very much would prefer a quieter life for us. And on the other hand, there have been some folks who would like to see me out every day, right, banging the drum. What I've tried to do is to move from player to coach.
I do remember the economy when he first came in, it was pretty good. And I say, yeah, yeah, it was good because it was my economy.
(CHEERING)
OBAMA: And it's going to be tight because a lot of Americans are still struggling.
I miss you too, but hold on.
(CHEERING)
OBAMA: I love you back. All right. I love you back.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: How much can he do for El Sayed?
SIMMONS: He's got so much, so good. Listen, I think he can be helpful. El Sayed is running upstream a little bit in Detroit because there is a lot of history there between the African-American community and the Arab-American community that's there.
So, he's got to navigate that water. He's doing, I think, a very good job of taking it on head-on. He's not ignoring it. He's posting videos all over social media. I get a lot of Detroit-focused video in my Instagram feed, so I'm seeing a lot of what he's doing to make that work.
I will have to this though for Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez who says anybody can win anywhere. Anybody can win anywhere in a year where Donald Trump has started a war people don't like. Everything is more expensive than it used to be. In that environment, anybody might be able to.
BROWNSTEIN: It's still worth measuring where El Sayed finished --
(CROSSTALK)
TODD: Don't discourage her. Don't discourage me.
BROWNSTEIN: Where he finishes relative to Benson is going to be revealing in terms of what it might be like --
HUNT: You're talking about the governor's race.
BROWNSTEIN: The governor's race. What it might be like in a year that is a little more neutral in the political environment.
You know, you've got two forces, I mean, colliding here, as Jamal was saying. I mean, I was in Michigan right before the primary, and I was in a Black church in Detroit the Saturday before the vote, and the minister was talking quite a bit about that history of tough relations.
On the other hand, Trump's support in the Black community has significantly eroded, as it has in the Hispanic community, as it has among young men. So, a lot -- all the groups that have moved toward him, moved toward him in '24, have pulled back. So, the question is, Republicans are not going to get the share of the vote they got, that Trump got in '24.
The question is, that enough to get the turnout? for Democrats, and I think the big cities are still a big question mark for Democrats.
Is there enough there to get the kind of numbers that Obama saw in Detroit or Milwaukee?
SIMMONS: I find it very hard to believe there'll be voters in Detroit who vote for Jocelyn Benson for governor and then don't -- and then vote for Republican for the Senate or don't vote in the Senate race. I think they'll stick in there. TODD: I would just note that as good a job as Barack Obama did at the podium there, he was campaigning for an African-American candidate, and they lost that state, despite the good work he did in that -- in that -- in that race.
[16:30:04]
El-Sayed is very different, he's very vulnerable, and I think the governor's race may track with it, and we may win both races.
TRENT: I don't think he's nearly as vulnerable as you might imagine, though. The thing is, he's already performing quite well in the polls. I think Abdul El-Sayed is running quite a very strong campaign. And, you know, this is -- I think people are very much underestimating them, and I think it's too bad.
HUNT: All right. Well, we'll see. Corbin Trent, thank you, sir. Very much appreciated. Hope you'll come back.
The rest of my panel is going to stand by. Coming up next here in THE ARENA, the debate stage is set, one of the biggest Senate races of the year. Why Democrats want to talk about something tonight that Susan Collins did eight years ago today.
Plus, what the president is saying this afternoon about whether you'll get your money back when it comes to those campaign-style ads promoting Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The ads were really good. They were promotion for the country. Done by many presidents before, so we'll decide.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:35:24]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: That's a countrywide ad. That's an ad for the spirit of our country. Now, if somebody said that that's wrong, I'll gladly pay the money.
But these are ads for the country. These are ads -- I'm not promoting. You have to understand, I'm not promoting the candidate. I'm not promoting myself because I'm not running for office. I'm promoting the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: After bipartisan backlash, President Trump announced on his Truth Social platform, quote, "I have decided to do the patriotic ads, among others, and pay for them myself with money I raised for MAGA Inc." According to Ad Impact, as of Monday, at least an estimated $10.1
million had been spent on the ads. That money will not be paid back.
A White House spokesperson confirmed the president will not reimburse the government for money already spent on the ad buys, like this one, which has aired during NFL games.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We will rout the fake news media and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Okay. Ron?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, I understand that the major focus is on the astounding inappropriateness of the government paying for this, but can we not gloss over that he's describing his political rivals as communists in these ads? I mean, when the biography of Roy Cohn is just out, his kind of mentor, I mean, the ad is inappropriate in so many different levels, and obviously, the federal government should not be paying -- you and I should not be paying for this, but just -- the routine in which he describes his political opponents as communists. And how numb we have gotten to how out of bounds that is, that's what really astounds me above all of this.
HUNT: So, the president has, of course, repeatedly claimed that there are various things that he himself would pay for. It's a range. Let's watch that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: This place is tippy-top now, including all the brand new beautiful stone. I paid for it myself.
So, all of this was paid for by myself. And because I keep hearing like I'm not -- we are making a gift of this one. This is a gift. This is not going to be paid for by the taxpayer.
Assume you saw the beautiful granite. I fixed it. I paid for it myself.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: So, of course, unclear if you ever followed through on much of any of that, but they did ask Congress for hundreds of millions of dollars for that ballroom, perhaps the national security apparatus piece of it. I mean, is this at all credible that he says he's going to pay for it, Jamal?
SIMMONS: Yeah, I want to see the receipts, right? Like, let's see the face of the stubs.
So, listen, I think the challenge here is what we know is true, which is all the numbers are going in the wrong direction for the country, and the president is using these ads to try to change the subject from what's really happening. Unemployment's going up, and jobs are going down, and consumer confidence is going down, and inflation's going up. All the numbers are upside down.
And so, the president has got to figure out how he can get that off. But the Democrats, if you elect us, we'll stop the slide, we'll hold the crooks accountable, and then we'll put some policies on the table to change these things. If the president doesn't go along with it, we got two years, and then we can get a new president.
That's the simple argument, right? And talk about all the rest of this stuff that Donald Trump wants to focus on.
HUNT: Yeah, I mean, listen, Republicans are not happy about this either. Here's a series of Senate Republicans essentially saying, hey, you can't do that, Mr. President.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN THUNE (R-SD), MAJORITY LEADER: You like the message, but it shouldn't be paid for with taxpayer dollars.
SEN. JOHN KENNEDY (R-LA): I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves.
REPORTER: What are your thoughts on that? Is it appropriate?
SEN. JOHN CORNYN (R-TX): No. It's not even a close question.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: And now Brad Todd, we can look at the polling. Okay, this isn't even an 80/20 issue. This is an 86/14 issue. Okay, 86 percent of American adults disapprove of paying for these ads with taxpayer money.
TODD: I was against this as soon as it happened, but I will also note that I've been against the Democratic proposals to let the government pay for campaign ads with their campaign finance reform plans. And so over the American public.
American public, that 86 number is pretty right. You poll, should we use taxpayer money to fund campaigns as Democrats all to do four years ago, it's about an 86 percent no issue as well.
But one thing I find interesting is the president has come to love TV ads. When he ran in 2016, he did not run TV ads in his primary campaigns.
[16:40:03]
In fact, he hardly had any advertising at all. He had a website where you could buy a MAGA red hat, and he was paying for everything himself, except for the $20 to buy the hats. And we've come a long way in 10 years to where the centerpiece here of the reelection, the retention of the Congress strategy is the president doing television ads when he started merely by force of personality on the trail. That's an interesting growth.
DANN: And I think it's worth noting too that the president is the only Republican doing this, having himself front and center in campaign ads. During the primary Ad Impact, which you mentioned, tracked all of the campaign issues that were appearing in ads, and Republicans -- it was Trump far and away the most important person because everybody was courting his endorsement or trying to tell primary voters they had his endorsement. Democrats were also talking about Donald Trump all the time because they wanted in ads to convey that they were going to fight him.
In the general election, that share has plummeted. Neither Republicans nor Democrats are talking that much about Donald Trump. You're seeing anecdotal stories about candidates who either don't want to campaign with him or are scrubbing their websites of references to him. He's sort of the only person putting himself at the very front of ads after having been the most important part of the primary process.
BROWNSTEIN: I would qualify that in two ways. First, the president is on the ballot in midterms whether he wants to be or not. Whether you stand at a rally or not, the view of the incumbent president is the single most important factor, I think, in shaping midterm outcomes.
But even more importantly, as I said before, the Republicans who are feeling defensive about the economy, they voted for all of these. It's not just Trump launched a war in Iran. It's not just Trump imposed these tariffs. It's not -- you can't hive it off just to him. They have all voted repeatedly to support these policies. So, their fingerprints are on it in a way that goes beyond whether you put them in an ad with Trump.
These ads can now say, and they do say, if you can kind of look around the country, the Republican voted X times for tariffs. The Republican voted X times for the war that is driving up your gas prices, and that's the hill they have to get over.
HUNT: I mean, it's also it strikes me more than just a voting record, Ron. I mean, the complete and total kind of encapsulation of the Republican Party by President Trump over 10 years. I mean, I don't understand. Voters aren't making a distinction.
BROWNSTEIN: If you don't -- if you don't like the direction that Trump has set for the country, what can a Republican say at this point to convince you that they are going to pressure him to change that direction, right? I mean, what now, why would you think that any of them would, so if you want to cast a vote to say you're not happy with the choices of the second term, you're not happy with the direction of the country, how do Republicans speak to that given, as we said, even in ruby-red states like Kansas and Iowa, his disapproval is now above 55 percent.
HUNT: Well -- and yeah, go ahead.
TODD: The answer is don't vote for the Democrats who are now powered by DSA radicals. That's the answer. You have two parties that --
(CROSSTALK)
HUNT: Because what might be compared to a feeling about what is. Very different.
TODD: This could get worse.
SIMMONS: Except these DSA radicals are talking about things like health care costs and the economy.
TODD: Abdul El-Sayed says --
SIMMONS: That most people in the country are saying they'd rather have something that's going to help them afford their health care.
BROWNSTEIN: But given the nature of the battlefield, there are places where that will probably work, but it's drawing the line pretty deep into red territory.
TODD: Well, I don't know. I disagree. Abdul El-Sayed says in his health care policy that you're going to pay more and you're also going to have to lose your union benefits.
So, I think that a lot of this DSA takeover is valid even into blue territory.
SIMMONS: I haven't heard him say you're going to lose your union benefits. That would be a pretty tough argument in Michigan.
HUNT: All right. Well, the question of whether any Republican can show or tell that they are going to separate themselves from Trump is very much relevant to our next conversation.
Ahead here in THE ARENA, the moment eight years ago today that is expected to take center stage tonight in one of the country's most pivotal Senate races.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-ME): Despite the turbulent, bitter fights surrounding his nomination, my fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[16:48:24]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANA BASH, CNN HOST: One hundred percent certain, without a doubt, that Brett Kavanaugh will not overturn Roe v. Wade?
COLLINS: I do not believe that Brett Kavanaugh will overturn -- BASH: Precedents are overturned all the time.
COLLINS: They aren't overturned all the time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Life comes at you fast.
Eight years ago today, Senator Susan Collins was the deciding vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. The following day, she insisted right here on CNN that the new justice would not vote to overturn a woman's right to an abortion. But as we all know, Kavanaugh and a majority of other justices did just that in the landmark 2022 Dobbs decision.
Tonight, Collins and her Democratic opponent will have their first of four debates. And in a new video today, the Democrats signaling the Kavanaugh vote will be front and center.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: I would not support a nominee who demonstrated hostility to Roe v. Wade.
JON STEWART, TV HOST: And to her credit, she only voted for four of them.
I'd like to hear an explanation as to why you shouldn't pay an electoral price for enabling all the terrible consequences that the people of Maine are facing as a result of your Senate votes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Get your priorities right.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. CNN correspondent Arlette Saenz joins our panel.
So, Arlette, you were in Maine covering this race for us. How often does this come up when you talk to voters?
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Kasie, we often hear voters talking about Senator Susan Collins' voting record, but there is perhaps no other vote that has come under more scrutiny than her decision to support Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice back in 2018.
[16:50:07]
This was a key theme in her reelection bid back in 2020, but this year it really holds additional significance because this will be the first election where Senator Susan Collins is on the ballot. That this after the Supreme Court overturned Roe V Wade.
Now Susan Collins has described herself as a pro-life Republican. She has said that the Supreme Court's decision was ill-advised, but as recently as June, she told reporters that she did not regret voting for Brett -- Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Democrats have really used that throughout this campaign. There have been a number of attack ads against Susan Collins highlighting this and her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson has already telegraphed that he wants to raise this in the debate.
It's worth noting that Jackson himself has a mixed record on abortion rights after he was staunchly opposed to it in the past, but now later on in his political career, he has come to advocate for abortion rights.
Now the big question is, is how this issue will play with voters. There was a recent CBS News poll of Maine registered voters that found 61 percent of those voters disapproved of the decision by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe V. Wade, and this is an issue that could also hold sway with women voters who make up a significant size of the electorate in Maine.
Back in 2020 during her reelection bid, women voters made-up 59 percent of the electorate, really powering her win in that state. But if you take a look at other polling recently, there are some signs that Jackson has made inroads with women voters as he is up in a few polls, including this one that was released a little bit earlier today from Marist.
So, this is an issue that certainly and continue to come up throughout this election. Tonight is the first of four debates that Collins and Jackson will have. And so, we will see how effectively she might be able to counter some of those attacks from Jackson on the debate stage.
HUNT: Yeah, really interesting.
All right, Arlette, thank you very much for that.
So, Ron Brownstein, how likely do you think Susan Collins is to be able to defy a national environment that is probably the worst she's ever faced.
BROWNSTEIN: You know, focusing on the women I think is important because in 2020, her ability to get older white women in particular to vote for her was the key to her survival. She ran like 15 points ahead of Trump --
HUNT: Yeah.
BROWNSTEIN: -- in 2020 among women older than 45. That never happens anymore, like anywhere. Like, no one runs 15 points ahead of the presidential candidate among a major demographic group.
And, you know, she is just -- the gravity pulling her down is even stronger than it was in 2020 because at that point Kavanaugh had not voted to overturn Roe, and Trump is even more unpopular.
Troy Jackson may not be the greatest candidate in the world, and no one will ever count out Susan Collins, but I think she will have to defy gravity to an even greater extent than she did six years ago. DANN: I think you're absolutely right with your point about women voters, and Collins won them by three points in that race against Sara Gideon. That race against Sara Gideon by the way, I think the Maine Senate race is the one where Republicans and Democrats, even privately, have the most different take on what is going to happen here.
The polling shows is on either side of that race. And it is a notoriously difficult state to poll in. And everybody has that memory when Sara Gideon was leading in polls going up to that 2020 race, and then Collins ended up very handily winning it.
So, it is a tricky one to watch. But I would agree that the female voters of Maine, who are 60/40 part of the electorate. I think it's definitely worth watching.
HUNT: So do you guys disagree on where this race stands?
SIMMONS: Well, I'm sitting here watching this and I'm thinking about the campaign meeting when they got the poll back and they went through the issues and they saw that 60 percent of voters were really upset about this Kavanaugh vote and it became very simple to use that as a linchpin for Senator Collins' standing with Trump against the issues of Maine voters and you just run that all the time, and it's clear it's having an impact on her and we'll see what happens tonight when they have a debate.
TODD: First up, they're having four debates. That's unusual. And the voters will pay attention. They'll all get good ratings. Maine's a state where people pay attention.
It's a squirrely state. I ran a race there in an open seat one time against a Democrat who was pro-life, pro-gun, pro-gay, and pro-labor, a very odd mix. And I got beat, by the way, in that race. That was a pretty good coalition for him.
And so, it's not a conventional red-blue state. They have another senator who's an independent, Angus King. They want a senator who's a little bit different, and Susan Collins has always filled that role.
So, I think tonight she has every she'll get every chance to make her case in these four debates, and I think she's got a shot to win, even when Republicans in redder states are losing.
HUNT: Yeah, and I mean, and again, obviously, Democrats really struggled in the recruitment front here, Jamal, sorry. But it's true.
TODD: They had the governor.
(LAUGHTER)
HUNT: But it's true. It may be her saving grace this time.
All right. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) HUNT: All right, thanks very much to my panel.
Ron, thanks for coming all the way from L.A.
BROWNSTEIN: Oh, yeah, I want to cool off. In D.C., you cool off.
HUNT: It's always great to have you. I appreciate it.
Thanks to all of you at home for watching as well. Don't forget, you can now stream THE ARENA live. You can catch up whenever you want. It's all in the CNN app. Just scan the QR code below.
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But of course, do not go anywhere. The dapper Jake Tapper is standing by for "THE LEAD".
Hi, Jake.
