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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Hurricane Lili Becomes Category 4, Should Make Landfall in Louisiana Tomorrow; New Jersey Supreme Court Allows Democrats New Senate Candidate

Aired October 02, 2002 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, again. I'm Aaron Brown.
So imagine tonight you're a justice on the U.S. Supreme Court. Two years ago, in a decision that history will not simply remember but debate endlessly, you issued a ruling that ended the Florida recount and assured George W. Bush the presidency. As you're leaving your office today you find that once again you're going to be asked to settle a legal question rich with political overtones: the New Jersey Senate, which may well determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. And while that isn't exactly deciding who is president, it is no small matter either.

If you take the case, you'll be asked to overturn a unanimous ruling at the highest court in the state of New Jersey. Like you, they are political appointees: two Republicans, four Democrats, one Independent.

All of those justices, we can only assume set their political affiliations aside to reach their unanimous decision. So what do you do? Do you take the case and risk again that the court is seen as an instrument of one political party or another? Do you say risk be damned, repercussions be damned, and take the case anyway?

We don't presume to tell the court what to do. Each of those justices is far smarter and wise than we could ever hope to be. But these are dangerous waters and the justices must surely dread being in them. Because respect for the court as an institution above the political fray is a concept as important as any in American life.

We'll get to New Jersey in a bit. But we begin tonight with Hurricane Lili. Quite a bit on that tonight, as it turns out. We start with Mark Potter, who is in Miami watching Lili -- Mark, the headline.

MARK POTTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Hurricane Lili is a very dangerous and life-threatening storm bearing down on the central Louisiana coast. Residents still in the low-lying areas are urged to get out now if they can -- Aaron.

BROWN: Mark, thank you. Back to you in a moment.

On to Louisiana. The residents there have certainly had too many hurricanes over two weeks: two of them. Frank Buckley is in Cameron, Louisiana -- Frank, a headline from you. FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, just a week after Isidore left, $100 million damage here in Louisiana, Lili is on the way. Emergency management officials expect this Category 4 hurricane to leave damage that will be much, much worse -- Aaron.

BROWN: Frank, thank you.

A political win for the president tonight on the Iraqi resolution. Suzanne Malveaux at the White House for us. Suzanne, the headline from you.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, it was really a watershed moment for the Bush administration. The president now enjoying bipartisan support. The House giving him the green light to use military force against Saddam Hussein. The question now: Will he be as successful with the Senate and the U.N. Security Council?

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you.

And, as we said at the top, major decision out of the New Jersey State Supreme Court today on the election mess there. Deborah Feyerick is handling that. So Deborah, a headline from you.

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, New Jersey Democrats take a gamble and it pays off. They've got a new candidate in the Senate race, but the Republicans are vowing to fight it all the way.

BROWN: Thank you, Deborah. We'll get back to you and the rest of you shortly.

Also coming up tonight, we spent a lot of time updating you on Hurricane Lili as it moves toward the Gulf states.

On Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, one of the most intriguing Democrats, as you surely know, on the momentum in Congress involving Iraq and on homeland security as well.

A follow-up tonight from Jason Carroll who is in Milwaukee. A town trying to come to grips with the fact that kids not old enough to drive, in one case barely old enough to get out of the car seat, have admitted they are old enough to kill. The latest on the beating death there. This is a sad story.

And Robert Torricelli is not the only name that gets a lot of people in New Jersey angry. We'll tell you about another: the poet laureate and what he had to say about 9/11 that has sparked some considerable anger.

All of that, in a very busy hour. Storms of one sort or another for the next 60 minutes.

We begin with the one in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Lili. As you'll see in a moment on the satellite map, it is like most hurricanes, a majestic thing, but only when viewed from a safe distance. Tonight, for much of the Gulf Coast there is no safe distance and we're reasonably certain no one is thinking about the majesty of nature right now, only about escaping it.

A wire service picture from Louisiana caught our eye this afternoon. After packing all he could, Ricky Menard (ph) took a snapshot of his house for the memories and the insurance company. He's not alone, nor are we.

Tonight, Frank Buckley is with us from Cameron, Louisiana. Keith Oppenheim is in New Orleans, and Mark Potter at the National Hurricane Center in Miami to start us off. Mark, good evening.

POTTER: Good evening, Aaron.

Hurricane forecasters say that for many people this could be the story of a lifetime. Lili is a major Category 4 hurricane bearing down on the central Louisiana coast. The current win speed is 145 miles per hour.

Landfall is expected south of New Iberia or Lafayette around noon Thursday. The storm surge can be up to 20 feet and push 25 miles inland, threatening lives.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED RAPPAPORT, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: It's enough to cause substantial damage to structures. Also significant, and very important, is that we're expecting a storm surge, as much as 20 feet or even greater near the center of the storm track and to the right.

This area in red and yellow and green is a storm surge of 20 feet, which will push inland from the coast of Louisiana. All evacuations need to be completed immediately. This is, as I said, a very grave situation for the coast.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

POTTER: Now in explaining their concerns, hurricane forecasters point to Audrey, hurricane Audrey, which hit the same area in 1957. The storm surge there was 10 to 14 feet, lower than the predicted storm surge this time. More than 400 people died in that storm and forecasters can only hope that this time people along the coast are better prepared -- Aaron.

BROWN: Mark, we'll check back with you through the program to see if the path of Lili is changing, though I gather we're awfully late in the game to expect any significant change. These computer models are pretty good.

POTTER: Absolutely right. In fact, we just talked to the forecasters a moment ago. They say it is still on track. They have not issued the 11:00 p.m. Eastern time advisory, but they say it will basically be the same, showing the storm coming up through Vermillion Bay (ph), again just south of New Iberia. And the biggest concern with this storm is the area around the eye and to the east.

And so there is a considerable area where they are concerned about the wind and, again, that storm surge, which is a major concern if people are not there -- are there and have not left, they could drown.

BROWN: Mark, thank you. And, as we say, we'll be back with you in just a few moments. And we'll have more on the hurricane as we go tonight.

Across the state now to New Orleans, you go there on even the best of days, a dry day, and you'll notice the cemeteries in New Orleans are above ground because so much of the city lies below sea level. You also notice that despite the unfavorable geography, the people of New Orleans tend to take a fairly casual view on the whims of nature and honestly most everything else.

Hurricanes traditionally become the occasion for hurricane parties, though perhaps not this time. Here's Keith Oppenheim.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KEITH OPPENHEIM, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the Big Easy, they're getting ready for the big storm. Boarding up businesses, taping windows, believing the city will not be in the bull's eye of Hurricane Lili's path.

GLADYS CATYB, RESIDENT: We expect some wind and some water but not too much of any damage.

OPPENHEIM: Indeed, New Orleans may dodge the bullet as the hurricane moves northwest. But still the timing for the whole region couldn't be worse. Just one week ago tropical storm Isidore caused serious flooding in Louisiana. And within days of that clean-up effort, Hurricane Lili was aiming at Cuba, making its way into the Gulf.

New Orleans is vulnerable, even if it's on the edge of this powerful Category 4 storm. Protected by levees, the city sits just below sea level.

DERRICK ROUTE, RESIDENT: If we get a lot of rain, the city floods very quickly. And if it rains, it's going to be bad.

OPPENHEIM: And a lot of wind with that rain could be devastating to coastal areas to the west. With the threat of winds over 140 miles per hour, Louisianians know that being anywhere close to Lili is a risk.

DAVID EVANOFF, RESIDENT: You keep your fingers and your toes crossed hoping that things aren't going to get as bad as they possibly can.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OPPENHEIM: Aaron, we're joining you live now from the Mississippi River in New Orleans. And it is the Mississippi River to the south, to the major part of the city. And like (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to the north of the city, where there could be potential problems.

The good news for New Orleans, if you can call it that, is that forecasters do not expect a direct hit here. They're looking at tropical storm winds in this area, potential storm surges, which could cause a problem for this city that's below sea level, but the big damage and the big problems are certainly going to be to the west of here. That's the way it's looking and that's probably where we'll be traveling in the morning -- Aaron.

BROWN: Well, we see the winds picking up. So I gather if we looked at the interstates, we would not see a flood -- no pun intended -- of people leaving the city there, just hunkering down and waiting it out.

OPPENHEIM: That's the case here in New Orleans. People are being advised on their local newscast to just pretty much stay home tonight because they are going to be far enough away from the direct impact of the storm that they don't have to evacuate here. But when you get to the south central part of Louisiana, that's where people are evacuating in high numbers.

BROWN: Keith, thank you very much. We appreciate your work tonight. Stay safe out there.

Now to the west, some are hoping to ride things out, but actually hundreds of thousands of people have hit the road in the western part of Louisiana. When a reporter asked one driver where he was going, the man said "Destination, I have no idea. But it's going to be north." Not bad advice.

CNN's Frank Buckley joins us tonight. Frank, why don't you help us with where you are, where Cameron, Louisiana is and what the weather is, and then move on.

BUCKLEY: We're on the Gulf Coast, the southwest part of Louisiana, just south of Lake Charles. And this is an area where Audrey caused quite a bit of damage in 1957. Mark Potter was talking about that.

In this parish alone, of the 500 people who were killed in Audrey in 1957, more than 350 of those people were in this area. It's a very low-lying area. And this is one of those areas where the officials are concerned.

They issued mandatory evacuations for this parish and nine others, recommended in two additional parishes. We're told that tonight, Aaron, that more than 800,000 people in Louisiana alone have been told to evacuate their homes.

BROWN: And as you've wandered around Cameron, is it a ghost town right now?

BUCKLEY: It really is. This is a small town to begin with, about 9,000 residents in this parish. But they started evacuating yesterday. Throughout the day today people were evacuating. And even evacuated their livestock.

One of our crews here this morning found a rancher moving 600 head of cattle out of this area. So, yes, it does feel like a ghost town. We're at a Gulf Coast shrimping operation here, and not a soul to be found, just us. And the folks here have heeded the advice and moving out of this area.

BROWN: I remember being in one of those situations a couple years back in Myrtle Beach. And it did seem like the only people there were police officers and reporters. And I was reasonably sure the police officers were going to get out of town pretty quickly.

As you were driving in, did you see a flood of people leaving? Were the highways packed with people? Has it been fairly orderly people getting out of town?

BUCKLEY: It's been surprising, Aaron. I expected to see that flood of people, to see the traffic jams that we've seen in other hurricanes. Haven't seen that here today. It has been fairly orderly.

One thing that has surprised me is that, even as the emergency management officials were upgrading this to a Category 4, and all that comes along with a Category 4, 131 mile-an-hour winds, now we're being told a possible surge of 20 feet, the fact that people just a few miles inland are saying, well, you know what, we think we can ride this out. And emergency management officials are particularly concerned about people like that.

Researchers will tell you that 80 to 90 percent of the people who live along the coastal regions that are potential hurricane areas have not experienced a major hurricane. And so their only experience with hurricanes is sort of Category 1 or tropical storm strength, and they think, well, we can ride this out. And the reality is that a Category 4 can cause extensive damage in low elevation areas, extreme flooding. And they are concerned that people will understand that before people make their decision about whether or not to leave.

BROWN: Well they're about to find out what a Category 4 hurricane looks like. Frank, thank you. Frank Buckley in Cameron, Louisiana. Needless to say, be safe there please.

Ahead on the program we'll check back a little bit later on the path of Lili, by the way.

We have shades of Florida 2000. This time it's New Jersey. The election mess getting messier.

But up next we go to the White House to look at the politics of Iraq and we'll talk with Senator Joe Lieberman as well.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, at the risk of reading tea leaves here, it did seem like a shift of tone today from the White House on Iraq. No mention of assassination. The president focusing instead on disarmament and the United Nations. His words echoed the text of a compromised resolution on Iraq the White House reached with congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle. Not everyone in Congress is on board, of course, but a consensus seems to be forming on when and whether to go to war. And the president says it is a consensus he can live with.

Here again, CNN's Suzanne Malveaux.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX (voice-over): After two weeks of intense negotiating between the Bush administration and congressional lawmakers, the president got what he wanted: a resolution authorizing him to use force against Saddam Hussein.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The statement of support from the Congress will show to friend and enemy alike the resolve of the United States.

MALVEAUX: Mr. Bush struck a different tone than the fist- pounding calls for Saddam's ouster seen in recent weeks. No mention of preemptive action by U.S. forces or Iraqi regime change. The message meant to appeal not only to nervous Americans, but skeptical members of the U.N. Security Council, reluctant to approve military action against Iraq in a resolution of their own.

BUSH: None of us here today desire to see military conflict, because we know the awful nature of war. Our country values life and never seeks war unless it is essential to security and to justice.

MALVEAUX: And while the resolution gives the president authority to act unilaterally without the approval of the United Nations, there are concessions. It authorizes military force only against Iraq. Requires the president to go before Congress and show that all diplomatic means have been exhausted. And to notify Congress before or within 48 hours of a military strike.

There are still some holding out in the Senate for a bipartisan resolution with more restrictive language. And notably absent from today's event was the most senior Democrat, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. But today's event demonstrated strong support from powerful Senate Democrats standing shoulder to shoulder with the president, signaling a congressional resolution to the president's liking may be finalized soon.

SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), CONNECTICUT: The world has tried in just about every way, diplomatic, economic and otherwise, except military in the end, to convince Saddam Hussein to live by the rules of international law and civilization. They've not worked.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: The question now, of course, is whether or not the president will be as successful convincing members of the U.N. Security Council to pass their own resolution authorizing military force to hold Saddam Hussein to account -- Aaron. BROWN: I heard one report today, and you may or may not have heard something like it, that the White House is particularly annoyed these days with the French, who do not seem to be moving in the direction the administration would like.

MALVEAUX: There is a lot of frustration, Aaron, that seems to be at a stalemate at this point. Really the sticking point is whether or not there is going to be one or two resolutions. The French calling for the two-step process, one which would get the weapons inspectors back inside Iraq but the second one only if Saddam Hussein did not comply with the authorized military force.

The Bush administration feels very strongly there should be one tough resolution, a resolution with teeth, but they are really not getting very far with the French.

BROWN: And just if you know, do you have any sense of a timetable on the U.N. resolution, when that will and how that will play out?

MALVEAUX: Well they are certainly hoping to come up with some sort of agreement in the next couple of weeks. And, as you know, that critical deadline, that was the U.N. was actually trying to get those weapons inspectors back in by October 15. The Bush administration really wants to see some sort of language or resolution on the table before that, that they have some sort of agreement.

But as mentioned before by Secretary of State Colin Powell, that they will actually try to thwart those weapons inspectors from going back inside unless they have some sort of new agreement. They have not spelled out how they plan on doing that.

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you. Suzanne Malveaux has the watch at the White House this evening.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, as you saw and as you heard, was among those at the White House today. He introduced the compromise measure on the Senate floor and we spoke to the Senator late this afternoon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator, when do you expect the debate in the Senate on the Iraqi resolution to begin?

LIEBERMAN: I expect the debate to begin tomorrow.

BROWN: And how complete would you say the work is on the language of that resolution? Do you expect any surprises?

LIEBERMAN: The work on the resolution that Senator McCain, Warner, Bayh and I introduced today is complete. It is the product of a process of negotiation with the White House in which we asked them to take some pieces out of their initial proposed resolutions and add some others in.

But there will be amendments offered on the floor of the Senate. My guess is at least two and maybe more.

BROWN: And those amendments will try and narrow further the power that's being given to the president in this instance?

LIEBERMAN: That's right. Senator Biden, I would guess, will introduce a resolution or an amendment that he's been talking about, which would take the section of our resolution that gives the president the authority to take action to enforce all United Nations resolutions, all relevant United Nations resolutions, and will probably narrow that down toward the U.N. resolutions that deal with weapons of mass destruction.

Senator Levin has been talking about introducing an amendment which would call for essentially a two-step authorization process by the Congress. And the first step, we would encourage the president to go forward at the United Nations, ask the United Nations Security Council to authorize the use of force if the Iraqis do not comply with inspections, et cetera.

Leave it at that for now, and then if there was not compliance or action to come back -- ask the president to come back afterward to get a specific authorization for the U.S. to take military action. Presumably on its own, but I don't ever think it will be on its own if that has to happen.

BROWN: Something you just mentioned, are you comfortable in your own mind that there is a clear connection, an unambiguous connection between the government of Iraq and al Qaeda?

LIEBERMAN: No. I am clear in my mind that there is a connection between the government of Iraq and terrorist groups because, after all, Iraq under Saddam is one of six or seven countries that our State Department for years has said was a state sponsor of terrorism. Those are mostly groups operating against Israel, although in some cases they have operated against American personnel as well.

What we do know about al Qaeda is that there are three or four different essentially groups of al Qaeda that have relocated to Iraq. We presume -- I presume they're there with the knowledge of the government of Iraq, but there's not direct evidence linking those two together. And there are, as you've discussed, contacts between Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda at various points over the last decade.

BROWN: Quickly now on to homeland security, where things aren't quite so hunky-dory, I gather.

LIEBERMAN: Yes.

BROWN: The White House not yet willing to deal with you on this? And is the homeland security bill going to get through the Senate?

LIEBERMAN: Well, I sure hope so. I think it would be an outrage and truly irresponsible if we go home from this session of Congress without creating a department of homeland security.

The fact is the federal government is disorganized when it comes to homeland security. Most intensely and consequentially in the disorganization or the bureaucratic barriers that prohibit our intelligence and law enforcement agencies from sharing information, all this is coming out almost every day through the intelligence committee investigation.

We know how to close our -- knock down those barriers. It will be terrible if we don't do that, and we all agree we should do that. What we're arguing over, as you know, is how to protect the rights of federal homeland security workers transferred to this new department without diminishing the authority of the president over national security.

I think we've been very accommodating and even altering the initial bill. These parts of the initial bill that came out of my Governmental Affairs Committee and the White House remains intransigent. They just remain very inflexible on it.

BROWN: What the president said, and perhaps he didn't quite mean it as strongly, or perhaps he did, is that you senators are more interested in protecting a special interest than protecting the homeland. So it seems to me you ought to respond.

LIEBERMAN: Yes. Well, that was a very unfair and irresponsible statement and obviously not accurate. We have a disagreement, which I take to be a good faith disagreement, about this question of protecting workers who are transferred to the new department. But honestly, Arlen Specter, my Republican colleague, and I introduced a bill to create a Department of Homeland Security in October of last year.

President Bush fought us for eight months until he endorsed the idea in June. Now I never would have thought to say that the fact that he was fighting our good idea for ideological or bureaucratic reasons meant that he was more interested in his ideology or bureaucracy than in national security.

We had a good faith disagreement. That's exactly what we have now. And we all ought to lower our voices and speak with a bit more trust and not impugn each other's motives. And if we do that, we'll get the job done for the American people that they need to give them some encouragement that another September 11-type attack will not happen again here.

BROWN: Senator, it's good to see you again.

LIEBERMAN: You, too, Aaron.

BROWN: We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you very much.

LIEBERMAN: Thank you. Have a good night.

BROWN: Thank you, sir.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator Joe Lieberman. We talked with him earlier this afternoon.

Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, a crime of unimaginable brutality from kids unimaginably young. Jason Carroll from Milwaukee tonight. More on that.

Up next, another election fight that's destined for the highest court in the land: the New Jersey Senate showdown.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, as we said at the top of the program tonight, we're back in a political version of "Alice in Wonderland." On Monday a candidate quits the New Jersey Senate race because he's going to get clobbered. On Tuesday the party chooses a new candidate, who actually is an old candidate, a 78-year-old former senator. On Thursday, tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court will find this mess on it's plate.

Today the highest court in the state of New Jersey found it. And while Florida comparisons are unavoidable, there is one difference here, at least: In this case the court, for better or for worse, spoke with one voice.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A victory for New Jersey Democrats in getting a new candidate into the Senate race, the State Supreme Court ordering new ballots. Robert Torricelli's name is off, Frank Lautenberg's name is on.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From the state of New Jersey, Frank R. Lautenberg!

FEYERICK: The court voted unanimously, seven-nothing, the justices citing the need to preserve the two-party system and have candidates from both major political parties on the ballot.

At a preplanned rally for the Democrats' new choice, cheers and celebration.

FRANK LAUTENBERG, RETIRED U.S. SENATOR (D), NEW JERSEY: Are we ready to go to work?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Are we ready to fight?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Are we ready to win?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Let's do it starting tonight.

Thank you all very, very much.

FEYERICK: But the Republican Party called the ruling outrageous, candidate Doug Forrester saying:

DOUG FORRESTER (R), NEW JERSEY SENATE CANDIDATE: Regardless of the outcome of the courts, I will continue my fight to put the interests of the people of New Jersey before politics.

FEYERICK: Even before the supreme court ruling was made public, lawyers for the GOP candidate announced they were raising the stakes, taking their case to a higher level.

WILLIAM BARONI JR., ATTORNEY REPRESENTING DOUGLAS FORRESTER: We are in the process of filing, in the United States district court here in New Jersey, an action under federal law under the Voting Rights Act seeking to have the ballots as printed before that were destined, including the ballots that had already been mailed to military and overseas civilian absentee ballot voters to be sent.

FEYERICK: Lawyers for the Democratic Party slammed Republican attempts to keep this in court.

ANGELO GENOVA, ATTORNEY, NEW JERSEY DEMOCRATIC PARTY: I think it's a desperate grasp at trying to keep this litigation alive. FEYERICK: Under the state court ruling, Democrats will have to pay the price of reprinting the ballot: $800,000 to be deposited in a special account.

Also, military and overseas ballots will take precedence so they can be mailed out in time.

At least one New Jersey man not happy with the outcome.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a disgrace, is what that is.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why? If the election law states one thing, how can they get away with doing another?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FEYERICK: Now don't expect the printing presses to crank up just yet. The Republicans are appealing the New Jersey ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court and they are hoping to get a stay so that no ballots go out until it's decided -- Aaron.

BROWN: And do they expect to file -- they've got, actually, it sounds like there are two actions, one going in the federal district court and one going to the U.S. Supreme Court. Are they going to file those both tomorrow?

FEYERICK: They are going to file both those tomorrow.

Also, they're appealing to the U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft. They want him to look into violations of the Voting Rights Act.

BROWN: Perfect. Absolutely perfect. Deborah, thank you; Deborah Feyerick in Trenton tonight.

Two years ago Jeffrey Toobin and I would share meals in Tallahassee reading briefs and tea leaves, waiting for the Florida Supreme Court to decide the presidential race. He got a book out of the deal: "Too Close to Call."

Who would have imagined his expertise would be put to such good use again so soon.

Hello, my friend.

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Here we are.

BROWN: First of all, you know, honestly, as I looked at the law, it does seem pretty clear -- the New Jersey law.

TOOBIN: It's pretty clear which way.

BROWN: Fifty-one to me means 51. TOOBIN: Well, you know, that's why lawyers get the big bucks to say, you know, when the law says 51, they don't really mean 51 days, they mean something else.

But, I mean, there is an argument for...

BROWN: Well obviously there's an argument, because they persuaded seven...

(CROSSTALK)

TOOBIN: And remember, think about if the Republicans had won this lawsuit, you would you have had a situation, for 35 days the court today learned that the name could be replaced. But instead there'd be kind of this sham election where -- with a candidate who has withdrawn.

The court said that New Jersey law stands for the proposition that when there are competitive candidates, there should be a competitive election.

BROWN: All right, this -- New Jersey's done. New Jersey has spoken.

The district court judge in Florida, he made his ruling, onto the Supreme Court we go now.

And is there a substantial federal question here?

TOOBIN: Well, this decision is written as if it is entirely a New Jersey decision. There is not a single federal statute cited in this decision. There is not the United States Constitution cited in this decision. You would think it's just a state issue.

But lawyers are paid to find federal issues, and even though it's true that usually federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, stay out of purely state matters, they could take this case and review it very quickly.

BROWN: And do we -- are there any clues in the way they ruled in Florida that are applicable here that might tell us, if they take the case, how they might come down?

TOOBIN: The idea behind Bush v. Gore, the ultimate decision in the case, is that all voters must be treated similarly. All voters must essentially have the same rules apply to them.

Here what the New Jersey Supreme Court tried to do was go out of their way to say, make sure that everyone, including the absentee ballots that have already gone out, make sure everyone is treated equally.

What the Republicans will argue -- and they may succeed -- is that it's not good enough; that particularly the military overseas ballots, it's too late, you can't treat everybody the same.

That would open the door for the U.S. Supreme Court to say, you're violating Bush v. Gore.

BROWN: Well, if you argue that you can, in fact, get those ballots -- the absentee ballots, the military ballots -- and interesting how that comes up again -- to everyone, then that argument is negated, isn't it?

TOOBIN: Well, it is if you can do it. I mean, there remains this factual issue about whether it's possible.

I mean, I thought the key moment in the argument today is when the attorney general of the state said: It's going to be difficult, but we can make sure everybody gets the same ballot. I think that's what really tipped the balance.

BROWN: All right, two quick things. Deborah said they'll go ask the Attorney General John Ashcroft to step in. What could he do?

TOOBIN: Well, the Justice Department is responsible for overseeing the Voting Rights Act. I think that's a real long shot. The real enforcement powers of the Voting Rights Act apply mostly in the Southern states, which are still under closer federal supervision.

I don't think there's much the attorney general can do, especially since it's John Ashcroft, a former senator, very political person himself. He's likely to stay out it.

BROWN: You know, that one just has you going "yikes," doesn't it? I mean, that's just "yikes."

TOOBIN: That's right. Katherine Harris is going to be in Congress, too. Maybe we'll...

BROWN: We'll all get together for tea.

Jeffrey, thank you very much. And we'll see what the court does, and invite you back to explain it yet again.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, it is not often that a poem causes a statewide uproar, but we'll tell you about that as we go tonight.

Up next, the crime that is shaking one city left so many people asking, Why did it happen, How could our kids have done it?

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Another chapter in a story tonight about kids who seem utterly lost. And it begins with a question -- How does an egg tossed at someone end with a mob of children beating a man to death?

Something Milwaukee has been trying to answer since Sunday night, a question that may well never be answered, even though eight kids, including a 10-year-old, have admitted to playing a part. But it is still a question one town and, in many ways, all the rest of us might want to keep trying to figure out. CNN's Jason Carroll has been working the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Three more minors were brought into children's court in Milwaukee on Wednesday to face allegations they took part in the fatal, brutal beating of Charlie Young, Jr.

The 36-year-old died late Tuesday after police say a mob of young people, one as young as 10-years-old, used everything from a baby stroller to a shovel to beat him.

On Tuesday, Children's Court Commissioner Dennis Simple could barely contain his anger when he addressed a suspect's mother.

DENNIS SIMPLE, CHILDREN'S COURT COMMISSIONER: Why the hell weren't these kids in bed?

No! I don't want to you say anything, mom.

But it is obvious to me that you were not controlling your son. You've neglected and you've refused to control him.

CARROLL: During Wednesday's proceedings, Simple was calmer but no less critical of some of the suspects' parents who were a no-show to court.

SIMPLE: The parents are not here. One can only ask why.

He doesn't go to school. He's 13. He's out at 11:00 at night. There's no question that the parent is not providing adequate supervision and care, is neglecting the child.

CARROLL: More details of the beating were revealed in court.

Prosecutors say once the boys chase Young on to this porch and beat him into unconsciousness, a 16-year-old performed a "WWF Smackdown" move called a cripple crossface hold.

JOY HAMMOND, MILWAUKEE ASSISTANT DISTRICT ATTORNEY: The description he gives are basically he gets on top and he starts holding the other guy's head back, while these other guys beat him.

CARROLL: According to this police report, one of the suspects, a 14-year-old, who admitted to stomping Young on the head told detectives -- quote -- If I had known he was beat that bad, I would not have touched him. I'm going to pray for his soul.

Jason Carroll, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It just takes your breath away.

There's been more stories, more news today than the program can handle, so here's a quick review of some of the other things that made news today.

Some back and forth over the possible guilty plea by the alleged shoe bomber, Richard Reid. His lawyers will enter the pleas, but only if the government changes the wording in two of the counts.

The lawyer wants language saying that Reid trained with al Qaeda taken out. Attorney General John Ashcroft said Mr. Reid is free to plead guilty if he so chooses, but the government stands by all his allegations.

In Houston, Enron's former Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Fastow, is out on bail tonight. Took $3 million in cash and the deeds to five of his homes -- that would be five of his homes -- to free him.

He was charged today with stock fraud, mail fraud, money laundering and conspiracy, the first major indictment in the Enron case.

In New York, Douglas Faneuil pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor. He's the assistant to Martha Stewart's stock broker. His plea is expected to be part of the deal that could spell serious trouble for Ms. Stewart. Faneuil pleaded guilty to accepting gifts, for not telling investigators what he knew about Ms. Stewart's sale of ImClone stock a day before the company announced serious bad news. At the time, ImClone was run by a close friend of Ms. Stewart.

To Miami now, the two woman who took care of Rhelia Wilson, and who lost track of her, well, they've been arrested. Pamela and Jarilyn Graham were charged with welfare fraud, in part, for allegedly collecting payments for Rhelia long after she vanished. They have not been charged in her disappearance.

And expect a federal -- rather, an official announcement tomorrow. William Bratton to be named the new police chief in Los Angeles. Mr. Bratton, you'll recall, perhaps, ran the New York City Police Department in the mid 90's and was credited for turning the tide on crime in New York.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll update the status of Hurricane Lili.

Up next, though, the uproar over a poem in New Jersey.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This is one of those debates that goes back to the ancients. Do artists have a responsibility to get the facts straight? From a comfortable distance of, say, a thousand year, it's a debate that becomes pretty academic.

But this debate is coming at a time that is still very raw for most Americans and especially those who live in the New York metropolitan area. What if an artist is suggesting something that is simply wrong about who might have known about 9/11 in advance? Put that way, none of this fight over New Jersey's poet laureate seems even remotely academic.

Here's CNN's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IMIRI BARAKA, NEW JERSEY POET LAUREATE: ...Whether you're hip enough to read both, you know they call for the poet to do what? Bring truth and beauty into the world.

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: His name is Imiri Baraka, once known as Leroy Jones. He is New Jersey's new poet laureate and has been called one of the most important African-American poets since Langston Hughes by the American Academy of Arts and Letters.

Now this one time beatnik Marxist and long-time black activist, is being called a anti-semite because of a poet he wrote entitled "Somebody Blew Up America," a 225-line questioning of who is responsible for everything from slavery to the death of Princess Di, to the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11.

The criticism centers on one stanza -- "Who knew the World Trade Center was going to get bombed? Who told 4,000 Israeli workers to stay home that day? Why did Sharon stay away?"

The suggestion that Israel had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks immediately drew fire from the Anti-Defamation League.

SHAI GOLDSTEIN, NJ REGIONAL DIR., ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE: If he want to serve as poet laureate of al Qaeda, more than welcome to. But it's entirely inappropriate for him to be poet laureate of New Jersey where we know the truth.

NISSEN: New Jersey Governor James McGreevey was also upset.

GOV. JAMES MCGREEVEY (D), NEW JERSEY: Somebody makes a statement to imply that the Israelis were aware of -- it's simply inappropriate. That's not tolerable, and he ought to resign.

BARAKA: This is my statement. I will not apologize and I will not design.

NISSEN: In a speech at the Newark Public Library, Baraka was variently critical of Israeli politics and policies, but denied he was anti-Semitic. He blasted the ADL for reading his poem selectively.

BARAKA: For instance, the poem asks who put the Jews in the ovens and who helped them do it? Who said, America first and OK'd the yellow stars?

NISSEN: The Anti-Defamation League was unappeased.

SHERRY KIRSCHENBAUM, ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE: The ADL, based on what Mr. Baraka said today, feels the poem is still anti-Israeli, anti-American and anti-Democratic.

NISSEN: For his part he said it was far more anti-Democratic to try to censor him, even if he and his words were provocative. That, he said, was his intent and his right.

BARAKA: I don't know all the answers but I know that those questions need to be answered.

NISSEN: One question is already answered -- Baraka's future as New Jersey's poet laureate. By state law he cannot be removed from the two-year term he has just begun.

Beth Nissen, CNN, Newark, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And we'll update Hurricane Lili as we wrap it up. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Before we go tonight, we want to bring you up to the minute on Hurricane Lili, which is expected to come ashore along the Louisiana Gulf coast tomorrow.

We're joined by forecaster Ed Rappaport who's at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It's good to see you, sir. I want to get to the substance of this in a second but just give me an idea. On a night like tonight, as you watch this thing move in, what's it like in the Hurricane Center? Is it tense, is it business as usual?

RAPPAPORT: Well, it's really a matter of concern now. We're running out of time for the folks along the Louisiana coast with this Category 4 Hurricane approaching and we hope everybody's paying attention to what their local emergency managers are saying.

BROWN: As you suggested, we don't have much time. There's not a lot -- I suppose at this point -- a lot of change that's going to happen. Is it conceivable that other than a few miles an hour one way or another this thing's going to change course significantly?

RAPPAPORT: No, at this point we're expecting that the center of the hurricane will continue to turn more towards the north and make landfall probably on the South Central coast of Louisiana during the morning hours to noon tomorrow bringing in a storm surge of 10 to 20 feet and winds that will be destructive on the order of 140, 145 miles per hour.

BROWN: Was there a moment in the last day or so when it became clear that this was not going to be Tropical Storm Isidore, this is going to be something much bigger, something much more dangerous? And if it was clear, what happened?

RAPPAPORT: Well, actually, we've been forecasting a tract that would come into this area where we have a Hurricane Warning for the last several days now. We did forecast that this would intensify to a Category 3 Hurricane. It's made it to Category 4. Either way it's considered a major hurricane with a potential large loss of life and damage.

BROWN: When's the last Category 4 Hurricane that hit the mainland?

RAPPAPORT: We had Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 in 1992. The last hurricane of about this intensity for Louisiana was almost 50 years ago, 1957, Hurricane Audrey, took 400 lives.

BROWN: And how much different is the whole science of hurricanes, the ability to warn and notify people today that it was back then? How much more warning, in other words, are people getting this time?

RAPPAPORT: We have a great deal of improvement over the last generation. Our forecasts of where a hurricane's going to go have improved by about 50 percent. We've cut our errors in about half. We still have quite a ways to go though. There's some more research that needs to be done. In particular we need additional work on forecasting the intensity. We were off by about one category now.

BROWN: Mr. Rappaport, we don't often say this to guests but in your case we say we hope you're wrong, though we don't expect you will be.

Thanks for joining us tonight, very much. We wish you the best. And that you all for joining us tonight. We'll see you again tomorrow at 10:00. "American Morning" with the latest on the hurricane, 7:00 Eastern time. Good night from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Louisiana Tomorrow; New Jersey Supreme Court Allows Democrats New Senate Candidate>


Aired October 2, 2002 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, again. I'm Aaron Brown.
So imagine tonight you're a justice on the U.S. Supreme Court. Two years ago, in a decision that history will not simply remember but debate endlessly, you issued a ruling that ended the Florida recount and assured George W. Bush the presidency. As you're leaving your office today you find that once again you're going to be asked to settle a legal question rich with political overtones: the New Jersey Senate, which may well determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. And while that isn't exactly deciding who is president, it is no small matter either.

If you take the case, you'll be asked to overturn a unanimous ruling at the highest court in the state of New Jersey. Like you, they are political appointees: two Republicans, four Democrats, one Independent.

All of those justices, we can only assume set their political affiliations aside to reach their unanimous decision. So what do you do? Do you take the case and risk again that the court is seen as an instrument of one political party or another? Do you say risk be damned, repercussions be damned, and take the case anyway?

We don't presume to tell the court what to do. Each of those justices is far smarter and wise than we could ever hope to be. But these are dangerous waters and the justices must surely dread being in them. Because respect for the court as an institution above the political fray is a concept as important as any in American life.

We'll get to New Jersey in a bit. But we begin tonight with Hurricane Lili. Quite a bit on that tonight, as it turns out. We start with Mark Potter, who is in Miami watching Lili -- Mark, the headline.

MARK POTTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Hurricane Lili is a very dangerous and life-threatening storm bearing down on the central Louisiana coast. Residents still in the low-lying areas are urged to get out now if they can -- Aaron.

BROWN: Mark, thank you. Back to you in a moment.

On to Louisiana. The residents there have certainly had too many hurricanes over two weeks: two of them. Frank Buckley is in Cameron, Louisiana -- Frank, a headline from you. FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, just a week after Isidore left, $100 million damage here in Louisiana, Lili is on the way. Emergency management officials expect this Category 4 hurricane to leave damage that will be much, much worse -- Aaron.

BROWN: Frank, thank you.

A political win for the president tonight on the Iraqi resolution. Suzanne Malveaux at the White House for us. Suzanne, the headline from you.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, it was really a watershed moment for the Bush administration. The president now enjoying bipartisan support. The House giving him the green light to use military force against Saddam Hussein. The question now: Will he be as successful with the Senate and the U.N. Security Council?

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you.

And, as we said at the top, major decision out of the New Jersey State Supreme Court today on the election mess there. Deborah Feyerick is handling that. So Deborah, a headline from you.

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, New Jersey Democrats take a gamble and it pays off. They've got a new candidate in the Senate race, but the Republicans are vowing to fight it all the way.

BROWN: Thank you, Deborah. We'll get back to you and the rest of you shortly.

Also coming up tonight, we spent a lot of time updating you on Hurricane Lili as it moves toward the Gulf states.

On Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, one of the most intriguing Democrats, as you surely know, on the momentum in Congress involving Iraq and on homeland security as well.

A follow-up tonight from Jason Carroll who is in Milwaukee. A town trying to come to grips with the fact that kids not old enough to drive, in one case barely old enough to get out of the car seat, have admitted they are old enough to kill. The latest on the beating death there. This is a sad story.

And Robert Torricelli is not the only name that gets a lot of people in New Jersey angry. We'll tell you about another: the poet laureate and what he had to say about 9/11 that has sparked some considerable anger.

All of that, in a very busy hour. Storms of one sort or another for the next 60 minutes.

We begin with the one in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Lili. As you'll see in a moment on the satellite map, it is like most hurricanes, a majestic thing, but only when viewed from a safe distance. Tonight, for much of the Gulf Coast there is no safe distance and we're reasonably certain no one is thinking about the majesty of nature right now, only about escaping it.

A wire service picture from Louisiana caught our eye this afternoon. After packing all he could, Ricky Menard (ph) took a snapshot of his house for the memories and the insurance company. He's not alone, nor are we.

Tonight, Frank Buckley is with us from Cameron, Louisiana. Keith Oppenheim is in New Orleans, and Mark Potter at the National Hurricane Center in Miami to start us off. Mark, good evening.

POTTER: Good evening, Aaron.

Hurricane forecasters say that for many people this could be the story of a lifetime. Lili is a major Category 4 hurricane bearing down on the central Louisiana coast. The current win speed is 145 miles per hour.

Landfall is expected south of New Iberia or Lafayette around noon Thursday. The storm surge can be up to 20 feet and push 25 miles inland, threatening lives.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED RAPPAPORT, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: It's enough to cause substantial damage to structures. Also significant, and very important, is that we're expecting a storm surge, as much as 20 feet or even greater near the center of the storm track and to the right.

This area in red and yellow and green is a storm surge of 20 feet, which will push inland from the coast of Louisiana. All evacuations need to be completed immediately. This is, as I said, a very grave situation for the coast.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

POTTER: Now in explaining their concerns, hurricane forecasters point to Audrey, hurricane Audrey, which hit the same area in 1957. The storm surge there was 10 to 14 feet, lower than the predicted storm surge this time. More than 400 people died in that storm and forecasters can only hope that this time people along the coast are better prepared -- Aaron.

BROWN: Mark, we'll check back with you through the program to see if the path of Lili is changing, though I gather we're awfully late in the game to expect any significant change. These computer models are pretty good.

POTTER: Absolutely right. In fact, we just talked to the forecasters a moment ago. They say it is still on track. They have not issued the 11:00 p.m. Eastern time advisory, but they say it will basically be the same, showing the storm coming up through Vermillion Bay (ph), again just south of New Iberia. And the biggest concern with this storm is the area around the eye and to the east.

And so there is a considerable area where they are concerned about the wind and, again, that storm surge, which is a major concern if people are not there -- are there and have not left, they could drown.

BROWN: Mark, thank you. And, as we say, we'll be back with you in just a few moments. And we'll have more on the hurricane as we go tonight.

Across the state now to New Orleans, you go there on even the best of days, a dry day, and you'll notice the cemeteries in New Orleans are above ground because so much of the city lies below sea level. You also notice that despite the unfavorable geography, the people of New Orleans tend to take a fairly casual view on the whims of nature and honestly most everything else.

Hurricanes traditionally become the occasion for hurricane parties, though perhaps not this time. Here's Keith Oppenheim.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KEITH OPPENHEIM, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the Big Easy, they're getting ready for the big storm. Boarding up businesses, taping windows, believing the city will not be in the bull's eye of Hurricane Lili's path.

GLADYS CATYB, RESIDENT: We expect some wind and some water but not too much of any damage.

OPPENHEIM: Indeed, New Orleans may dodge the bullet as the hurricane moves northwest. But still the timing for the whole region couldn't be worse. Just one week ago tropical storm Isidore caused serious flooding in Louisiana. And within days of that clean-up effort, Hurricane Lili was aiming at Cuba, making its way into the Gulf.

New Orleans is vulnerable, even if it's on the edge of this powerful Category 4 storm. Protected by levees, the city sits just below sea level.

DERRICK ROUTE, RESIDENT: If we get a lot of rain, the city floods very quickly. And if it rains, it's going to be bad.

OPPENHEIM: And a lot of wind with that rain could be devastating to coastal areas to the west. With the threat of winds over 140 miles per hour, Louisianians know that being anywhere close to Lili is a risk.

DAVID EVANOFF, RESIDENT: You keep your fingers and your toes crossed hoping that things aren't going to get as bad as they possibly can.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OPPENHEIM: Aaron, we're joining you live now from the Mississippi River in New Orleans. And it is the Mississippi River to the south, to the major part of the city. And like (UNINTELLIGIBLE) to the north of the city, where there could be potential problems.

The good news for New Orleans, if you can call it that, is that forecasters do not expect a direct hit here. They're looking at tropical storm winds in this area, potential storm surges, which could cause a problem for this city that's below sea level, but the big damage and the big problems are certainly going to be to the west of here. That's the way it's looking and that's probably where we'll be traveling in the morning -- Aaron.

BROWN: Well, we see the winds picking up. So I gather if we looked at the interstates, we would not see a flood -- no pun intended -- of people leaving the city there, just hunkering down and waiting it out.

OPPENHEIM: That's the case here in New Orleans. People are being advised on their local newscast to just pretty much stay home tonight because they are going to be far enough away from the direct impact of the storm that they don't have to evacuate here. But when you get to the south central part of Louisiana, that's where people are evacuating in high numbers.

BROWN: Keith, thank you very much. We appreciate your work tonight. Stay safe out there.

Now to the west, some are hoping to ride things out, but actually hundreds of thousands of people have hit the road in the western part of Louisiana. When a reporter asked one driver where he was going, the man said "Destination, I have no idea. But it's going to be north." Not bad advice.

CNN's Frank Buckley joins us tonight. Frank, why don't you help us with where you are, where Cameron, Louisiana is and what the weather is, and then move on.

BUCKLEY: We're on the Gulf Coast, the southwest part of Louisiana, just south of Lake Charles. And this is an area where Audrey caused quite a bit of damage in 1957. Mark Potter was talking about that.

In this parish alone, of the 500 people who were killed in Audrey in 1957, more than 350 of those people were in this area. It's a very low-lying area. And this is one of those areas where the officials are concerned.

They issued mandatory evacuations for this parish and nine others, recommended in two additional parishes. We're told that tonight, Aaron, that more than 800,000 people in Louisiana alone have been told to evacuate their homes.

BROWN: And as you've wandered around Cameron, is it a ghost town right now?

BUCKLEY: It really is. This is a small town to begin with, about 9,000 residents in this parish. But they started evacuating yesterday. Throughout the day today people were evacuating. And even evacuated their livestock.

One of our crews here this morning found a rancher moving 600 head of cattle out of this area. So, yes, it does feel like a ghost town. We're at a Gulf Coast shrimping operation here, and not a soul to be found, just us. And the folks here have heeded the advice and moving out of this area.

BROWN: I remember being in one of those situations a couple years back in Myrtle Beach. And it did seem like the only people there were police officers and reporters. And I was reasonably sure the police officers were going to get out of town pretty quickly.

As you were driving in, did you see a flood of people leaving? Were the highways packed with people? Has it been fairly orderly people getting out of town?

BUCKLEY: It's been surprising, Aaron. I expected to see that flood of people, to see the traffic jams that we've seen in other hurricanes. Haven't seen that here today. It has been fairly orderly.

One thing that has surprised me is that, even as the emergency management officials were upgrading this to a Category 4, and all that comes along with a Category 4, 131 mile-an-hour winds, now we're being told a possible surge of 20 feet, the fact that people just a few miles inland are saying, well, you know what, we think we can ride this out. And emergency management officials are particularly concerned about people like that.

Researchers will tell you that 80 to 90 percent of the people who live along the coastal regions that are potential hurricane areas have not experienced a major hurricane. And so their only experience with hurricanes is sort of Category 1 or tropical storm strength, and they think, well, we can ride this out. And the reality is that a Category 4 can cause extensive damage in low elevation areas, extreme flooding. And they are concerned that people will understand that before people make their decision about whether or not to leave.

BROWN: Well they're about to find out what a Category 4 hurricane looks like. Frank, thank you. Frank Buckley in Cameron, Louisiana. Needless to say, be safe there please.

Ahead on the program we'll check back a little bit later on the path of Lili, by the way.

We have shades of Florida 2000. This time it's New Jersey. The election mess getting messier.

But up next we go to the White House to look at the politics of Iraq and we'll talk with Senator Joe Lieberman as well.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, at the risk of reading tea leaves here, it did seem like a shift of tone today from the White House on Iraq. No mention of assassination. The president focusing instead on disarmament and the United Nations. His words echoed the text of a compromised resolution on Iraq the White House reached with congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle. Not everyone in Congress is on board, of course, but a consensus seems to be forming on when and whether to go to war. And the president says it is a consensus he can live with.

Here again, CNN's Suzanne Malveaux.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX (voice-over): After two weeks of intense negotiating between the Bush administration and congressional lawmakers, the president got what he wanted: a resolution authorizing him to use force against Saddam Hussein.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The statement of support from the Congress will show to friend and enemy alike the resolve of the United States.

MALVEAUX: Mr. Bush struck a different tone than the fist- pounding calls for Saddam's ouster seen in recent weeks. No mention of preemptive action by U.S. forces or Iraqi regime change. The message meant to appeal not only to nervous Americans, but skeptical members of the U.N. Security Council, reluctant to approve military action against Iraq in a resolution of their own.

BUSH: None of us here today desire to see military conflict, because we know the awful nature of war. Our country values life and never seeks war unless it is essential to security and to justice.

MALVEAUX: And while the resolution gives the president authority to act unilaterally without the approval of the United Nations, there are concessions. It authorizes military force only against Iraq. Requires the president to go before Congress and show that all diplomatic means have been exhausted. And to notify Congress before or within 48 hours of a military strike.

There are still some holding out in the Senate for a bipartisan resolution with more restrictive language. And notably absent from today's event was the most senior Democrat, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. But today's event demonstrated strong support from powerful Senate Democrats standing shoulder to shoulder with the president, signaling a congressional resolution to the president's liking may be finalized soon.

SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), CONNECTICUT: The world has tried in just about every way, diplomatic, economic and otherwise, except military in the end, to convince Saddam Hussein to live by the rules of international law and civilization. They've not worked.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: The question now, of course, is whether or not the president will be as successful convincing members of the U.N. Security Council to pass their own resolution authorizing military force to hold Saddam Hussein to account -- Aaron. BROWN: I heard one report today, and you may or may not have heard something like it, that the White House is particularly annoyed these days with the French, who do not seem to be moving in the direction the administration would like.

MALVEAUX: There is a lot of frustration, Aaron, that seems to be at a stalemate at this point. Really the sticking point is whether or not there is going to be one or two resolutions. The French calling for the two-step process, one which would get the weapons inspectors back inside Iraq but the second one only if Saddam Hussein did not comply with the authorized military force.

The Bush administration feels very strongly there should be one tough resolution, a resolution with teeth, but they are really not getting very far with the French.

BROWN: And just if you know, do you have any sense of a timetable on the U.N. resolution, when that will and how that will play out?

MALVEAUX: Well they are certainly hoping to come up with some sort of agreement in the next couple of weeks. And, as you know, that critical deadline, that was the U.N. was actually trying to get those weapons inspectors back in by October 15. The Bush administration really wants to see some sort of language or resolution on the table before that, that they have some sort of agreement.

But as mentioned before by Secretary of State Colin Powell, that they will actually try to thwart those weapons inspectors from going back inside unless they have some sort of new agreement. They have not spelled out how they plan on doing that.

BROWN: Suzanne, thank you. Suzanne Malveaux has the watch at the White House this evening.

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, as you saw and as you heard, was among those at the White House today. He introduced the compromise measure on the Senate floor and we spoke to the Senator late this afternoon.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator, when do you expect the debate in the Senate on the Iraqi resolution to begin?

LIEBERMAN: I expect the debate to begin tomorrow.

BROWN: And how complete would you say the work is on the language of that resolution? Do you expect any surprises?

LIEBERMAN: The work on the resolution that Senator McCain, Warner, Bayh and I introduced today is complete. It is the product of a process of negotiation with the White House in which we asked them to take some pieces out of their initial proposed resolutions and add some others in.

But there will be amendments offered on the floor of the Senate. My guess is at least two and maybe more.

BROWN: And those amendments will try and narrow further the power that's being given to the president in this instance?

LIEBERMAN: That's right. Senator Biden, I would guess, will introduce a resolution or an amendment that he's been talking about, which would take the section of our resolution that gives the president the authority to take action to enforce all United Nations resolutions, all relevant United Nations resolutions, and will probably narrow that down toward the U.N. resolutions that deal with weapons of mass destruction.

Senator Levin has been talking about introducing an amendment which would call for essentially a two-step authorization process by the Congress. And the first step, we would encourage the president to go forward at the United Nations, ask the United Nations Security Council to authorize the use of force if the Iraqis do not comply with inspections, et cetera.

Leave it at that for now, and then if there was not compliance or action to come back -- ask the president to come back afterward to get a specific authorization for the U.S. to take military action. Presumably on its own, but I don't ever think it will be on its own if that has to happen.

BROWN: Something you just mentioned, are you comfortable in your own mind that there is a clear connection, an unambiguous connection between the government of Iraq and al Qaeda?

LIEBERMAN: No. I am clear in my mind that there is a connection between the government of Iraq and terrorist groups because, after all, Iraq under Saddam is one of six or seven countries that our State Department for years has said was a state sponsor of terrorism. Those are mostly groups operating against Israel, although in some cases they have operated against American personnel as well.

What we do know about al Qaeda is that there are three or four different essentially groups of al Qaeda that have relocated to Iraq. We presume -- I presume they're there with the knowledge of the government of Iraq, but there's not direct evidence linking those two together. And there are, as you've discussed, contacts between Iraqi intelligence and al Qaeda at various points over the last decade.

BROWN: Quickly now on to homeland security, where things aren't quite so hunky-dory, I gather.

LIEBERMAN: Yes.

BROWN: The White House not yet willing to deal with you on this? And is the homeland security bill going to get through the Senate?

LIEBERMAN: Well, I sure hope so. I think it would be an outrage and truly irresponsible if we go home from this session of Congress without creating a department of homeland security.

The fact is the federal government is disorganized when it comes to homeland security. Most intensely and consequentially in the disorganization or the bureaucratic barriers that prohibit our intelligence and law enforcement agencies from sharing information, all this is coming out almost every day through the intelligence committee investigation.

We know how to close our -- knock down those barriers. It will be terrible if we don't do that, and we all agree we should do that. What we're arguing over, as you know, is how to protect the rights of federal homeland security workers transferred to this new department without diminishing the authority of the president over national security.

I think we've been very accommodating and even altering the initial bill. These parts of the initial bill that came out of my Governmental Affairs Committee and the White House remains intransigent. They just remain very inflexible on it.

BROWN: What the president said, and perhaps he didn't quite mean it as strongly, or perhaps he did, is that you senators are more interested in protecting a special interest than protecting the homeland. So it seems to me you ought to respond.

LIEBERMAN: Yes. Well, that was a very unfair and irresponsible statement and obviously not accurate. We have a disagreement, which I take to be a good faith disagreement, about this question of protecting workers who are transferred to the new department. But honestly, Arlen Specter, my Republican colleague, and I introduced a bill to create a Department of Homeland Security in October of last year.

President Bush fought us for eight months until he endorsed the idea in June. Now I never would have thought to say that the fact that he was fighting our good idea for ideological or bureaucratic reasons meant that he was more interested in his ideology or bureaucracy than in national security.

We had a good faith disagreement. That's exactly what we have now. And we all ought to lower our voices and speak with a bit more trust and not impugn each other's motives. And if we do that, we'll get the job done for the American people that they need to give them some encouragement that another September 11-type attack will not happen again here.

BROWN: Senator, it's good to see you again.

LIEBERMAN: You, too, Aaron.

BROWN: We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you very much.

LIEBERMAN: Thank you. Have a good night.

BROWN: Thank you, sir.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator Joe Lieberman. We talked with him earlier this afternoon.

Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, a crime of unimaginable brutality from kids unimaginably young. Jason Carroll from Milwaukee tonight. More on that.

Up next, another election fight that's destined for the highest court in the land: the New Jersey Senate showdown.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, as we said at the top of the program tonight, we're back in a political version of "Alice in Wonderland." On Monday a candidate quits the New Jersey Senate race because he's going to get clobbered. On Tuesday the party chooses a new candidate, who actually is an old candidate, a 78-year-old former senator. On Thursday, tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court will find this mess on it's plate.

Today the highest court in the state of New Jersey found it. And while Florida comparisons are unavoidable, there is one difference here, at least: In this case the court, for better or for worse, spoke with one voice.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A victory for New Jersey Democrats in getting a new candidate into the Senate race, the State Supreme Court ordering new ballots. Robert Torricelli's name is off, Frank Lautenberg's name is on.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From the state of New Jersey, Frank R. Lautenberg!

FEYERICK: The court voted unanimously, seven-nothing, the justices citing the need to preserve the two-party system and have candidates from both major political parties on the ballot.

At a preplanned rally for the Democrats' new choice, cheers and celebration.

FRANK LAUTENBERG, RETIRED U.S. SENATOR (D), NEW JERSEY: Are we ready to go to work?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Are we ready to fight?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Are we ready to win?

CROWD: Yes!

LAUTENBERG: Let's do it starting tonight.

Thank you all very, very much.

FEYERICK: But the Republican Party called the ruling outrageous, candidate Doug Forrester saying:

DOUG FORRESTER (R), NEW JERSEY SENATE CANDIDATE: Regardless of the outcome of the courts, I will continue my fight to put the interests of the people of New Jersey before politics.

FEYERICK: Even before the supreme court ruling was made public, lawyers for the GOP candidate announced they were raising the stakes, taking their case to a higher level.

WILLIAM BARONI JR., ATTORNEY REPRESENTING DOUGLAS FORRESTER: We are in the process of filing, in the United States district court here in New Jersey, an action under federal law under the Voting Rights Act seeking to have the ballots as printed before that were destined, including the ballots that had already been mailed to military and overseas civilian absentee ballot voters to be sent.

FEYERICK: Lawyers for the Democratic Party slammed Republican attempts to keep this in court.

ANGELO GENOVA, ATTORNEY, NEW JERSEY DEMOCRATIC PARTY: I think it's a desperate grasp at trying to keep this litigation alive. FEYERICK: Under the state court ruling, Democrats will have to pay the price of reprinting the ballot: $800,000 to be deposited in a special account.

Also, military and overseas ballots will take precedence so they can be mailed out in time.

At least one New Jersey man not happy with the outcome.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a disgrace, is what that is.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why? If the election law states one thing, how can they get away with doing another?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FEYERICK: Now don't expect the printing presses to crank up just yet. The Republicans are appealing the New Jersey ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court and they are hoping to get a stay so that no ballots go out until it's decided -- Aaron.

BROWN: And do they expect to file -- they've got, actually, it sounds like there are two actions, one going in the federal district court and one going to the U.S. Supreme Court. Are they going to file those both tomorrow?

FEYERICK: They are going to file both those tomorrow.

Also, they're appealing to the U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft. They want him to look into violations of the Voting Rights Act.

BROWN: Perfect. Absolutely perfect. Deborah, thank you; Deborah Feyerick in Trenton tonight.

Two years ago Jeffrey Toobin and I would share meals in Tallahassee reading briefs and tea leaves, waiting for the Florida Supreme Court to decide the presidential race. He got a book out of the deal: "Too Close to Call."

Who would have imagined his expertise would be put to such good use again so soon.

Hello, my friend.

JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Here we are.

BROWN: First of all, you know, honestly, as I looked at the law, it does seem pretty clear -- the New Jersey law.

TOOBIN: It's pretty clear which way.

BROWN: Fifty-one to me means 51. TOOBIN: Well, you know, that's why lawyers get the big bucks to say, you know, when the law says 51, they don't really mean 51 days, they mean something else.

But, I mean, there is an argument for...

BROWN: Well obviously there's an argument, because they persuaded seven...

(CROSSTALK)

TOOBIN: And remember, think about if the Republicans had won this lawsuit, you would you have had a situation, for 35 days the court today learned that the name could be replaced. But instead there'd be kind of this sham election where -- with a candidate who has withdrawn.

The court said that New Jersey law stands for the proposition that when there are competitive candidates, there should be a competitive election.

BROWN: All right, this -- New Jersey's done. New Jersey has spoken.

The district court judge in Florida, he made his ruling, onto the Supreme Court we go now.

And is there a substantial federal question here?

TOOBIN: Well, this decision is written as if it is entirely a New Jersey decision. There is not a single federal statute cited in this decision. There is not the United States Constitution cited in this decision. You would think it's just a state issue.

But lawyers are paid to find federal issues, and even though it's true that usually federal courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, stay out of purely state matters, they could take this case and review it very quickly.

BROWN: And do we -- are there any clues in the way they ruled in Florida that are applicable here that might tell us, if they take the case, how they might come down?

TOOBIN: The idea behind Bush v. Gore, the ultimate decision in the case, is that all voters must be treated similarly. All voters must essentially have the same rules apply to them.

Here what the New Jersey Supreme Court tried to do was go out of their way to say, make sure that everyone, including the absentee ballots that have already gone out, make sure everyone is treated equally.

What the Republicans will argue -- and they may succeed -- is that it's not good enough; that particularly the military overseas ballots, it's too late, you can't treat everybody the same.

That would open the door for the U.S. Supreme Court to say, you're violating Bush v. Gore.

BROWN: Well, if you argue that you can, in fact, get those ballots -- the absentee ballots, the military ballots -- and interesting how that comes up again -- to everyone, then that argument is negated, isn't it?

TOOBIN: Well, it is if you can do it. I mean, there remains this factual issue about whether it's possible.

I mean, I thought the key moment in the argument today is when the attorney general of the state said: It's going to be difficult, but we can make sure everybody gets the same ballot. I think that's what really tipped the balance.

BROWN: All right, two quick things. Deborah said they'll go ask the Attorney General John Ashcroft to step in. What could he do?

TOOBIN: Well, the Justice Department is responsible for overseeing the Voting Rights Act. I think that's a real long shot. The real enforcement powers of the Voting Rights Act apply mostly in the Southern states, which are still under closer federal supervision.

I don't think there's much the attorney general can do, especially since it's John Ashcroft, a former senator, very political person himself. He's likely to stay out it.

BROWN: You know, that one just has you going "yikes," doesn't it? I mean, that's just "yikes."

TOOBIN: That's right. Katherine Harris is going to be in Congress, too. Maybe we'll...

BROWN: We'll all get together for tea.

Jeffrey, thank you very much. And we'll see what the court does, and invite you back to explain it yet again.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, it is not often that a poem causes a statewide uproar, but we'll tell you about that as we go tonight.

Up next, the crime that is shaking one city left so many people asking, Why did it happen, How could our kids have done it?

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Another chapter in a story tonight about kids who seem utterly lost. And it begins with a question -- How does an egg tossed at someone end with a mob of children beating a man to death?

Something Milwaukee has been trying to answer since Sunday night, a question that may well never be answered, even though eight kids, including a 10-year-old, have admitted to playing a part. But it is still a question one town and, in many ways, all the rest of us might want to keep trying to figure out. CNN's Jason Carroll has been working the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Three more minors were brought into children's court in Milwaukee on Wednesday to face allegations they took part in the fatal, brutal beating of Charlie Young, Jr.

The 36-year-old died late Tuesday after police say a mob of young people, one as young as 10-years-old, used everything from a baby stroller to a shovel to beat him.

On Tuesday, Children's Court Commissioner Dennis Simple could barely contain his anger when he addressed a suspect's mother.

DENNIS SIMPLE, CHILDREN'S COURT COMMISSIONER: Why the hell weren't these kids in bed?

No! I don't want to you say anything, mom.

But it is obvious to me that you were not controlling your son. You've neglected and you've refused to control him.

CARROLL: During Wednesday's proceedings, Simple was calmer but no less critical of some of the suspects' parents who were a no-show to court.

SIMPLE: The parents are not here. One can only ask why.

He doesn't go to school. He's 13. He's out at 11:00 at night. There's no question that the parent is not providing adequate supervision and care, is neglecting the child.

CARROLL: More details of the beating were revealed in court.

Prosecutors say once the boys chase Young on to this porch and beat him into unconsciousness, a 16-year-old performed a "WWF Smackdown" move called a cripple crossface hold.

JOY HAMMOND, MILWAUKEE ASSISTANT DISTRICT ATTORNEY: The description he gives are basically he gets on top and he starts holding the other guy's head back, while these other guys beat him.

CARROLL: According to this police report, one of the suspects, a 14-year-old, who admitted to stomping Young on the head told detectives -- quote -- If I had known he was beat that bad, I would not have touched him. I'm going to pray for his soul.

Jason Carroll, CNN, Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It just takes your breath away.

There's been more stories, more news today than the program can handle, so here's a quick review of some of the other things that made news today.

Some back and forth over the possible guilty plea by the alleged shoe bomber, Richard Reid. His lawyers will enter the pleas, but only if the government changes the wording in two of the counts.

The lawyer wants language saying that Reid trained with al Qaeda taken out. Attorney General John Ashcroft said Mr. Reid is free to plead guilty if he so chooses, but the government stands by all his allegations.

In Houston, Enron's former Chief Financial Officer, Andrew Fastow, is out on bail tonight. Took $3 million in cash and the deeds to five of his homes -- that would be five of his homes -- to free him.

He was charged today with stock fraud, mail fraud, money laundering and conspiracy, the first major indictment in the Enron case.

In New York, Douglas Faneuil pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor. He's the assistant to Martha Stewart's stock broker. His plea is expected to be part of the deal that could spell serious trouble for Ms. Stewart. Faneuil pleaded guilty to accepting gifts, for not telling investigators what he knew about Ms. Stewart's sale of ImClone stock a day before the company announced serious bad news. At the time, ImClone was run by a close friend of Ms. Stewart.

To Miami now, the two woman who took care of Rhelia Wilson, and who lost track of her, well, they've been arrested. Pamela and Jarilyn Graham were charged with welfare fraud, in part, for allegedly collecting payments for Rhelia long after she vanished. They have not been charged in her disappearance.

And expect a federal -- rather, an official announcement tomorrow. William Bratton to be named the new police chief in Los Angeles. Mr. Bratton, you'll recall, perhaps, ran the New York City Police Department in the mid 90's and was credited for turning the tide on crime in New York.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll update the status of Hurricane Lili.

Up next, though, the uproar over a poem in New Jersey.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This is one of those debates that goes back to the ancients. Do artists have a responsibility to get the facts straight? From a comfortable distance of, say, a thousand year, it's a debate that becomes pretty academic.

But this debate is coming at a time that is still very raw for most Americans and especially those who live in the New York metropolitan area. What if an artist is suggesting something that is simply wrong about who might have known about 9/11 in advance? Put that way, none of this fight over New Jersey's poet laureate seems even remotely academic.

Here's CNN's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IMIRI BARAKA, NEW JERSEY POET LAUREATE: ...Whether you're hip enough to read both, you know they call for the poet to do what? Bring truth and beauty into the world.

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: His name is Imiri Baraka, once known as Leroy Jones. He is New Jersey's new poet laureate and has been called one of the most important African-American poets since Langston Hughes by the American Academy of Arts and Letters.

Now this one time beatnik Marxist and long-time black activist, is being called a anti-semite because of a poet he wrote entitled "Somebody Blew Up America," a 225-line questioning of who is responsible for everything from slavery to the death of Princess Di, to the World Trade Center attacks on 9/11.

The criticism centers on one stanza -- "Who knew the World Trade Center was going to get bombed? Who told 4,000 Israeli workers to stay home that day? Why did Sharon stay away?"

The suggestion that Israel had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks immediately drew fire from the Anti-Defamation League.

SHAI GOLDSTEIN, NJ REGIONAL DIR., ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE: If he want to serve as poet laureate of al Qaeda, more than welcome to. But it's entirely inappropriate for him to be poet laureate of New Jersey where we know the truth.

NISSEN: New Jersey Governor James McGreevey was also upset.

GOV. JAMES MCGREEVEY (D), NEW JERSEY: Somebody makes a statement to imply that the Israelis were aware of -- it's simply inappropriate. That's not tolerable, and he ought to resign.

BARAKA: This is my statement. I will not apologize and I will not design.

NISSEN: In a speech at the Newark Public Library, Baraka was variently critical of Israeli politics and policies, but denied he was anti-Semitic. He blasted the ADL for reading his poem selectively.

BARAKA: For instance, the poem asks who put the Jews in the ovens and who helped them do it? Who said, America first and OK'd the yellow stars?

NISSEN: The Anti-Defamation League was unappeased.

SHERRY KIRSCHENBAUM, ANTI-DEFAMATION LEAGUE: The ADL, based on what Mr. Baraka said today, feels the poem is still anti-Israeli, anti-American and anti-Democratic.

NISSEN: For his part he said it was far more anti-Democratic to try to censor him, even if he and his words were provocative. That, he said, was his intent and his right.

BARAKA: I don't know all the answers but I know that those questions need to be answered.

NISSEN: One question is already answered -- Baraka's future as New Jersey's poet laureate. By state law he cannot be removed from the two-year term he has just begun.

Beth Nissen, CNN, Newark, New Jersey.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And we'll update Hurricane Lili as we wrap it up. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Before we go tonight, we want to bring you up to the minute on Hurricane Lili, which is expected to come ashore along the Louisiana Gulf coast tomorrow.

We're joined by forecaster Ed Rappaport who's at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

It's good to see you, sir. I want to get to the substance of this in a second but just give me an idea. On a night like tonight, as you watch this thing move in, what's it like in the Hurricane Center? Is it tense, is it business as usual?

RAPPAPORT: Well, it's really a matter of concern now. We're running out of time for the folks along the Louisiana coast with this Category 4 Hurricane approaching and we hope everybody's paying attention to what their local emergency managers are saying.

BROWN: As you suggested, we don't have much time. There's not a lot -- I suppose at this point -- a lot of change that's going to happen. Is it conceivable that other than a few miles an hour one way or another this thing's going to change course significantly?

RAPPAPORT: No, at this point we're expecting that the center of the hurricane will continue to turn more towards the north and make landfall probably on the South Central coast of Louisiana during the morning hours to noon tomorrow bringing in a storm surge of 10 to 20 feet and winds that will be destructive on the order of 140, 145 miles per hour.

BROWN: Was there a moment in the last day or so when it became clear that this was not going to be Tropical Storm Isidore, this is going to be something much bigger, something much more dangerous? And if it was clear, what happened?

RAPPAPORT: Well, actually, we've been forecasting a tract that would come into this area where we have a Hurricane Warning for the last several days now. We did forecast that this would intensify to a Category 3 Hurricane. It's made it to Category 4. Either way it's considered a major hurricane with a potential large loss of life and damage.

BROWN: When's the last Category 4 Hurricane that hit the mainland?

RAPPAPORT: We had Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 in 1992. The last hurricane of about this intensity for Louisiana was almost 50 years ago, 1957, Hurricane Audrey, took 400 lives.

BROWN: And how much different is the whole science of hurricanes, the ability to warn and notify people today that it was back then? How much more warning, in other words, are people getting this time?

RAPPAPORT: We have a great deal of improvement over the last generation. Our forecasts of where a hurricane's going to go have improved by about 50 percent. We've cut our errors in about half. We still have quite a ways to go though. There's some more research that needs to be done. In particular we need additional work on forecasting the intensity. We were off by about one category now.

BROWN: Mr. Rappaport, we don't often say this to guests but in your case we say we hope you're wrong, though we don't expect you will be.

Thanks for joining us tonight, very much. We wish you the best. And that you all for joining us tonight. We'll see you again tomorrow at 10:00. "American Morning" with the latest on the hurricane, 7:00 Eastern time. Good night from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

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Louisiana Tomorrow; New Jersey Supreme Court Allows Democrats New Senate Candidate>