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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Powell's Presentation: Was the Case Made?

Aired February 05, 2003 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, HOST: And good evening again, everyone. For days now we have grieved and honored the seven astronauts who died aboard Columbia. Their story has occupied hundreds of hours of air time, in part because of how they died, but in large part because of what they did. They were space travelers, and space is a glamour business for most of us.
Every minute spent talking about them was worth it we think. But they were not the only ones to die in recent days. And so add these names to the list of people whose families and whose children cry. Thomas Gibbons (ph), Daniel Kissling (ph), Gregory Frampton, and Mark Osteen (ph). Between them, they leave nearly 10 children without dads. Their lives and deaths got lost in the tragedy of the shuttle, for they died in Afghanistan.

They were what the Army calls night stalkers. Soldiers who slip in behind enemy lines in the dark of night. They were killed in a helicopter accident and they are also heroes.

Only in the movies is soldiery glamorous work. For months now we have paid scant attention to the thousands of American soldiers on duty tonight in Afghanistan. They are there, they are at risk, and sometimes they die. Twenty-two in accidents; another 25 killed by enemy fire.

They don't get special reports on the evening news. They probably won't get schools named after them or movies made about their lives. Until this moment, you probably had never heard their names. On a day when the country seems to be taking a step closer to war, it is not a bad thing to remember war's most basic reality.

So again, for the record, and because it's right, we remember tonight Thomas Gibbons (ph) and Daniel Kissling (ph) and Gregory Frampton (ph) and Mark Osteen (ph). May their families, like the families of the astronauts, feel the gratitude of their nation.

Much of the program tonight will be spent on the subject of Iraq and Secretary Powell at the U.N., how the world is reacting. We begin "The Whip" tonight with State Department correspondent Andrea Koppel, who is at the U.N. tonight. Andrea, a headline from you, please.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, a senior State Department official described Secretary Powell's presentation this way. And while it may sound cute, he was deadly serious. He said the U.S. Approach was more like the 1963 Dodgers than it was the 1927 Yankees. He said that it wasn't about hitting a -- it was more about hitting a series of line drives rather than it was about hitting home runs.

BROWN: Andrea, thank you. Back to you at the top tonight.

Reaction from Baghdad as well. Nic Robertson there. Nic, a headline.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the response from here quick and caustic. The Iraqi officials said that Secretary of State Colin Powell's address was a typical American show full of stunts, he said -- Aaron.

BROWN: Nic, thank you. We'll be back to Baghdad.

Secretary Powell facing deep skepticism in many parts of Europe. For European action, Robin Oakley is in Paris. Robin, a headline from you.

ROBIN OAKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Here in Paris, Aaron, no instant conversion. The French have sent an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, but they're still putting the emphasis on giving the inspectors in Iraq more time. And the key will be the French attitude when it comes to a vote on a second U.N. Security Council resolution.

BROWN: Robin, thank you.

And finally, in "The Whip" tonight, the latest on the shuttle investigation. And of course Miles O'Brien is on that. Miles, a headline from you.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN SPACE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, what a difference a day makes. Yesterday it seemed the leading theory was a piece of foam falling off during launch, which might have led to the demise of Columbia. Today the man in charge of the shuttle program says it just doesn't make sense, it has to be something else. But what?

BROWN: Miles, thank you. Back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up on the program tonight, we'll talk with Henry Kissinger about what Secretary Powell said and what the world heard. Also, Senator Joe Biden, too. The U.S. says that this man is the link between Iraq and al Qaeda. We'll look at who he is and what evidence there is to back up the secretary. Sheila MacVicar with that report.

And does confronting Iraq put us in jeopardy of another terrorist attack? The United States not taking any chances. Kelli Arena working that story. All that and more in the hour ahead.

But we begin with the case for the prosecution. Today, Secretary of State Powell brought the United Nations Security Council the administration's best evidence so far that Iraq is concealing weapons of mass destruction and deceiving the inspectors trying to find them. This is what we've all been waiting for, what other countries have been asking for. It's what Americans say they wanted to see before supporting a war with Iraq. So was it enough? It depends on who you ask. Early results of a quick CNN poll show the vast number of Americans familiar with the presentation are now persuaded. Seventy-nine percent say Secretary Powell made a very good or a fairly good case. Only 13 percent believe otherwise.

But Americans are just one audience the secretary was aiming at. Others are proving more skeptical, at least early on. We have much on this tonight, and we begin at the U.N. with CNN's Andrea Koppel.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: What you will see is an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior.

KOPPEL (voice-over): For more than an hour, Secretary of State Powell held court.

POWELL: Numerous human sources tell us that the Iraqis are moving not just documents and hard drives, but weapons of mass destruction to keep them from being found by inspectors.

KOPPEL: In a high-tech multi-media presentation, Powell presented newly declassified intelligence which the U.S. claims proves Iraq has an active program to develop weapons of mass destruction.

POWELL: We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails.

KOPPEL: Using charts and graphics, Powell said the U.S. believes Iraq has at least seven mobile biological agent factories mounted on at least 18 trucks.

POWELL: Just a few weeks ago we intercepted communications between two commanders in Iraq's second Republican Guard Corps.

KOPPEL: Playing audio intercepts, Powell said one Iraqi officer ordered another to stop using the expression "nerve agents." Holding a vile in his hand, Powell said Iraq had declared 8,500 liters of anthrax but had not accounted for even one teaspoon.

POWELL: This is just about the amount of a teaspoon. Less than a teaspoon full of dry anthrax in an envelope shut down the United States Senate in the fall of 2001.

KOPPEL: Most of Powell's show and tell focused on Iraq's alleged weapons program. But he also presented evidence that Iraq had harbored terrorists in northeastern Iraq, including a top al Qaeda operative, Abu Musab Zarqawi, a specialist in poisons.

POWELL: He traveled to Baghdad in May 2002 for medical treatment, staying in the capital of Iraq for two months while he recuperated to fight another day.

KOPPEL: Iraq dismissed Powell's allegations out of hand. MOHAMMED ALDOURI, IRAQI AMBASSADOR TO U.N. (through translator): The pronouncements in Mr. Powell's statements on weapons of mass destruction are utterly unrelated to the truth.

KOPPEL: In prepared statements following Powell's presentation, skeptical foreign ministers, including permanent members of the Security Council with veto power, turned the tables on the U.S.

DOMINIQUE DE VILLEPIN, FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): Let's just double, let's just triple the number of inspectors. Let's just open more regional offices. Let's just go further than this.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Now begins yet another round of heavy duty diplomacy. But U.S. officials say, Aaron, that they still expect it to be another couple of days before they get a real sense as to whether or not Secretary Powell's presentation succeeded in actually changing any minds -- Aaron.

BROWN: They're really playing to a relatively small audience of I guess four other countries who have permanent veto power, permanent seats on the Security Council. Any sense that the ground shifted at all today?

KOPPEL: Well, privately, U.S. officials are pointing to some of the statements that the French made. And, as you know, Aaron, the French have been most vocal in their opposition to any sort of -- any sort of move, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) move towards war. And they're the ones who have been encouraging the inspectors to have has much time as they need.

U.S. officials have pointed out a couple of things that the French have said which seemed to leave the door open to the possibility that there may need to be a second resolution and that in fact the inspections may have failed. But in point of fact, the French seem to be sticking to their guns. The Chinese and the Russians as well. But when push comes to shove, U.S. officials privately say that they're still quite confident that they'll be able to get the French, the Chinese and the Russians' vote if in fact it comes to that stage, Aaron.

BROWN: Andrea, thank you. Andrea Koppel outside the U.N. tonight.

On to Baghdad next, where it is quiet tonight. We've been reporting for some time now about a sense of resignation setting in there, a belief that war is coming no matter what. Today the words reflected again that belief. Here again from Baghdad, CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): It took nearly two hours of analysis before Iraqi officials responded to Colin Powell's accusations. GEN. AMER AL-SA'ADI, HUSSEIN SCIENTIFIC ADVISER: This was a typical American show, complete with stunts and special effects. However, the whole performance is in violation of Security Council Resolution 1441.

ROBERTSON: The 20-minute rebuttal was delivered by the very man Powell accused of working to deceive the inspectors. The charge General Amer al-Sa'adi denied.

AL-SA'ADI: The order given to me from early is to tell everything as it was.

ROBERTSON: All counts put forward by Powell dismissed by Al- Sa'adi, who said a detailed response would quickly be sent to the U.N. Powell's motives, he said, were suspect.

AL-SA'ADI: His findings and allegations are a deliberate attempt to undermine the credibility and professionalism of the inspection bodies.

ROBERTSON: Al-Sa'adi careful to leave open cooperation with those inspectors. A little earlier in Baghdad's oldest tea house, where the pace is slow, an analysis, often thoughtful, Powell already seemed prejudged.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He is looking for a desperate pretext or excuse to hit Iraq.

ROBERTSON: None in the cafe's relaxed atmosphere appeared outwardly concerned. However, a sense of fatalism is setting in. "There is nothing else we can do," he says. "We can only wish for peace."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: For most here, the issue of the U.N. inspectors is black and white. That is, they believe their President Saddam Hussein that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction. And for that reason many people here now really appear to be wondering if war can be avoided at all -- Aaron.

BROWN: The chief U.N. weapons inspector is en route to Baghdad. Are the Iraqis ready to give some ground?

ROBERTSON: Nothing that we've heard so far, Aaron. Those three key issues, surveillance, aircraft, the U-2s, the private interviews with the scientists on the passage of legislation outlawing weapons of mass destruction, no indication of movement. We know in the past Iraq has engaged in a diplomacy, a brinkmanship. It will move back if there's a strong threat of force and it feels it has nowhere to go. But no indication of that at this stage.

BROWN: Nic, thank you. Nic Robertson in Baghdad tonight.

We get some sense of how this will all play out by looking at the front pages of tomorrow's newspapers from around the country and around the world. This is what they'll see in Detroit, Michigan, in "The Detroit Free Press." The headline reads War of Words." The picture, Secretary Powell holding that small vile of anthrax. That's the Detroit paper.

"The Jerusalem Post" headlines two major stories. The Powell at the U.N. story is the major story, but there are two NASA Columbia stories, as you would expect because of Ilan Ramon who was on board the Columbia. "The Moscow Times," the English language paper in the Russian capital, "Powell Presents Recordings and Photos" is the headline that English-speaking Russians will see.

And quickly, "The Daily Telegraph," one of the tabloids in London, "The Evidence." There you go. That's a snapshot of what the morning papers tomorrow will look like. Here's more reaction from Europe and CNN's Robin Oakley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OAKLEY (voice-over): Colin Powell is one man on the Bush team trusted widely by Europe's leaders. And his U.N. address had the recruiting drums for a war coalition beating a little louder across the Atlantic.

The European Union, often a U.S. critic, warned Saddam Hussein must now disarm or face the consequences. Ten eastern European countries have issued a statement that they'll sign up to support the U.S. The U.K.'s foreign secretary said Saddam had been offered the chance for peace and failed to take it.

JACK STRAW, U.K. FOREIGN SECRETARY: If noncooperation continues, this council must meet its responsibilities.

OAKLEY: And he didn't mean by waving papers. In France, the public and government have been skeptical.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: French public opinion and, likewise, European public opinion, doesn't trust George W. Bush, doesn't trust his aims. Thinks that he has ulterior motives with oil (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

OAKLEY: So had Powell made a difference there? These engineering graduates watching the news didn't seem to think so.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There has been such a big fuss about this proof. And actually I think they are really very small, very tiny.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This kind of justifies (UNINTELLIGIBLE) a mass destruction industry in Iraq.

OAKLEY: But the U.N. France continues to demand for inspectors to be given more time. But Jacques Chirac has begun hedging his bets. The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaules sailed this week for the eastern Mediterranean. And analysts reckon that at the end of the day French troops will be in action.

BARTHELEMY COURMONT, INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC RELATIONS: We consider that if the inspectors or anyone else like special forces can find any proof, we will definitely accept it and go into a war. But if not, we need to give more time.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OAKLEY: It will take time, Aaron, for the full European reaction to Colin Powell's presentation to develop. Certainly it seems there's little chance of Germany backing a war, but the French could yet come aboard. But only after they've been the center of attention for a little while longer -- Aaron.

BROWN: Robin, thank you very much. Robin Oakley, who is in Paris for us tonight.

Also with us here in New York, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Dr. Kissinger, I asked Senator Joe Biden the same question. We'll play that interview a little later. Did Colin Powell close the deal today in your mind for anyone who has yet objectively to make up their mind?

HENRY KISSINGER, FMR. SECRETARY OF STATE: I think for anybody who analyzes the situation, he has closed the deal in the sense when the secretary of state of the United States (UNINTELLIGIBLE) behind an hour-long description of facts, when this is backed by the British intelligence and not really challenged in detail by the French, what can be the consequences of some foreign minister saying his experts have a slightly different view?

Are we supposed to march 200,000 troops out of the Middle East? What are the consequences? I frankly don't know what some of our allies think they're doing except to play with their own public opinion so that two, three weeks from now they can say now they are persuaded, which I think is the basic aim that France is playing.

BROWN: You mentioned that there's already tens of thousands of American troops in the region.

KISSINGER: Probably hundreds of thousands.

BROWN: Right. Are you saying, then, by implication that we have crossed the Rubicon, as it were? That -- let's accept reality that there's going to be a war?

KISSINGER: No, I'm not saying there has to be a war. I think there are two theoretical possibilities in which the war can be avoided. One is for Saddam to leave office and leave the country. The other one would be for Saddam to say, I didn't quite understand what you people were talking about and I have a lot of chemical and research and pesticide research. And if that's what you call a weapon -- but even then a system would have to be set up that does not depend on his compliance. So the two possibilities that I could foresee still require for him in effect to leave office.

BROWN: This may seem off the wall, I hope it doesn't, but I assume that actually people think about such things. He's sitting there in Baghdad, he knows what's around him, he knows that if in fact a war comes he's going to lose. He has to know that.

What kind of a game is he playing? What do you think?

KISSINGER: We're dealing with a maniac on the one hand. We're dealing with a man who has executed people in his cabinet room. He killed his son-in-law after giving him promise of safe conduct, and he did it rather cleverly. He didn't kill him himself, he got the family of the son-in-law to kill him.

And so -- and thirdly, insofar if he's rational, he may be thinking that somewhere along the line the United States will recoil, that there will be some U.N. vote that will make it impossible. And you have to remember, if he is in office by the end of this year, I think this will be a saddening (ph) setback not just for us, but for the very people in Europe who are now harassing us.

BROWN: Do you think that any of this European reaction on the streets -- and a lot of people observed this in Davos -- this anti- American feeling, is because they sensed that the president himself has personalized this, that he's, to use an expression, a cowboy, and that that makes them uncomfortable?

KISSINGER: Well, look, he's a type -- they haven't seen a Texas president since Johnson, and they weren't crazy about Johnson. But it's also a feeling -- it depends on the country. I think France is bargaining for a role in the postwar settlement. And they want to prove that we cannot trudge all over them. And on that point, I think it is valid to say the United States cannot unilaterally normally just decide to go to war, but this is not a normal situation.

We've been attacked. This is part of the war against terror, because you cannot have weapons of mass destruction in the middle of the area from which the terrorists came and from which the terrorists are being financed today. Germany is going through a huge domestic crisis. They have a real identity problem now, and they have really divided country with the former communist party not really knowing where they belong.

BROWN: Yes. Well it's always good to see you and I hope you'll come back and talk some more about all of this. Thank you for your time tonight.

KISSINGER: Thank you for asking me.

BROWN: Thank you. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger with us.

We have much more tonight on the program. The hunt for debris, of course, and for a cause of what brought down the shuttle Columbia. Miles O'Brien joins us. Sheila MacVicar later on the man that Secretary Powell zeroed in on today in drawing a line between Iraq and al Qaeda. We have much more on NEWSNIGHT from CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Now to the investigation surrounding the Columbia disaster and two searches across vastly different terrain. The first is one you've seen a lot of, the search for debris that now spans more than half the continent in the hope of putting the key puzzle pieces of the Columbia back together.

The second is one that seems to be taking on even greater importance: the search into the depths of NASA's own computer data, focusing not on the first 81 seconds of Columbia's mission, but on the final 32. Once again, CNN's Miles O'Brien.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN (voice-over): Take a look at these before and after images. Do you see a difference? Well, neither does NASA. And it is one reason the team investigating the crash of Columbia is placing less emphasis on the theory foam debris falling from the shuttle's external fuel tank might have dislodged or disturbed some insulating tiles, sealing Columbia's fate 81 seconds after launch.

RON DITTEMORE, SHUTTLE PROGRAM MANAGER: Right now, it just does not make sense to us that a piece of debris would be the root cause for the loss of Columbia and its crew. There's got to be another reason.

O'BRIEN: Shuttle program manager Ron Dittemore brought a piece of the material to illustrate the point. It's not unlike spray on foam insulation used by do-it-yourselfers. When it cures, it's hard and very light. He said engineers who analyzed this film added weight and speed to their computer models and still concluded the foam strike did not cause serious damage.

But what if the foam was coated with ice? The team that inspected Columbia for ice buildup before launch did not report any unusual buildups.

DITTEMORE: I don't think it's ice. I don't think there is an embedded ice question here. I don't think this came off as a chunk of foam solidified with ice.

O'BRIEN: A space shuttle that is falling toward Earth is flown by computer. Dittemore says during Columbia's final minutes, hurdling in the darkness, enveloped by red hot plasma, the auto pilot moved flaps called elevons (ph) rapidly and fired rocket thrusters to compensate for some drag on the left side.

DITTEMORE: The flight control system is trying to overcome a disturbance. And it is doing well at maintaining control, but it's losing the battle.

O'BRIEN: That is why investigators are anxious to try to recover some garbled data, apparently transmitted by Columbia 32 seconds after mission control lost contact with the crew. They're also hoping debris found in California might offer the best clue yet, since it could tell them what began falling off Columbia first.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: There's one other way to find out where the problem began. Engineers will take a look at all those high temperature readings which they've recovered form the telemetry data here in Houston, here in the elevons (ph) and the side of the fuselage and down here by the wheel well, and they can virtually triangulate the spot where the weakness occurred by using their computer models. So stay tuned on that one, Aaron.

BROWN: Well we stay tuned on all of it. It does feel that we are each day learning less, in some respects. That things that we thought we knew on Sunday or Monday we are less certain of on Wednesday.

O'BRIEN: It's interesting, because how many times do we say don't put the blinders on, and then we proceeded to go with our leading theory? And here we are today, as you say, the more we know, the less we seem to know.

BROWN: Miles, thank you. We'll see what tomorrow's chapter brings. Miles O'Brien stationed in Houston tonight.

As NEWSNIGHT continues, the terror connection. Sheila MacVicar reports on the man the Bush administration connects the Iraqis to the al Qaeda terror network. That and much more as NEWSNIGHT continues back home in New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In making the case today, Secretary Powell borrowed a bit from the news business. He took the reverse-pyramid approach, putting the most solid and persuasive material at the top and the iffier items, if you will, at the end, chief among them, this tantalizing question of a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda. It has tied the administration in knots since September 11, a year ago. And nothing Secretary Powell said today has been more hotly contested within the intelligence community than this.

Here's CNN's Sheila MacVicar.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHEILA MACVICAR, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Secretary of State Powell called the relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda a -- quote -- "sinister nexus" and said this man was the link.

POWELL: Iraq today harbors a deadly terrorist network headed by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, an associated in collaborator of Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda lieutenants.

MACVICAR: Powell said this camp in Northern Iraq was established by Zarqawi's networks for training in poisons. He says that although it was in area not controlled by Saddam Hussein's government, a senior agent representing Baghdad had offered al Qaeda safe haven in the region. And Powell claimed that Zarqawi had established a network of two dozen men in Baghdad last summer while he was getting medical treatment there.

POWELL: These al Qaeda affiliates, based in Baghdad, now coordinate the movement of people, money and supplies into and throughout Iraq for his network. MACVICAR: Powell reminded the Security Council that the Jordanian government said Zarqawi was behind the assassination of U.S. diplomat Laurence Foley in Amman last October. And the U.S. secretary of state used this chart to show a link between Zarqawi and a series of recent plots allegedly aimed at using chemical and biological weapons in France, Britain and other European countries.

(on camera): European intelligence agencies say they have evidence that Zarqawi trained those people in the use of poisons, but they say they have seen no credible evidence of any links between Zarqawi, al Qaeda and the Iraqis. And a top-secret British intelligence document leaked just hours before Powell's speech, written just three weeks ago, said attempts to form a relationship between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein had foundered on grounds of mutual suspicion.

(voice-over): Iraq's ambassador quoted a denial made by Saddam Hussein.

AL-DOURI (through translator): "If we had a relationship with al Qaeda and we believed in that relationship, we would not be ashamed to admit it."

MACVICAR: Zarqawi, who is a Jordanian, apparently isn't in Iraq. Intelligence sources tell CNN he has traveled throughout the region, to Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and even in Georgia to train the men arrested in Europe. His last known whereabouts? They say not in Iraq, but in neighboring Iran.

Sheila MacVicar, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A few more stories from around the world, starting with the elephant in the corner of the room, North Korea: Today, the North Korean government reactivated a nuclear reactor that is able to make plutonium for atomic bombs. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld today called it a worrisome thing, his words. He also says there is evidence to suggest that North Korea has already assembled two nuclear bombs.

Bloody day in the Middle East: two Palestinian men killed by gunfire from an Israeli helicopter in Gaza. Earlier in the day, the mother of a suspected terrorist was crushed to death when Israeli forces tore down her home. The IDF has launched an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the woman's death.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT for this Wednesday: The spread of war with Iraq is raising new terror concerns at home. Kelli Arena has that story -- coming up. And a little bit later, we'll talk with Democratic Senator Joe Biden about his take on Secretary Powell's speech today. And what of Iraq after a war?

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: And next on NEWSNIGHT: concerns that a war with Iraq will increase the danger of terrorism in the United States.

A short break -- right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There have been pitched battles fought over the question of how a war with Iraq would affect the overall climate for terrorism. Would it unleash a new wave of angry young men ready to take on the West in the worst possible way or send the opposite message? Reasonable people, we believe, on this, can differ. In the government's view, though, there is reason to take extra precautions, regardless.

Here's CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the U.S. moves closer to taking on Saddam Hussein, counterterrorism officials tell CNN the concern about a possible terror attack on U.S. soil is at the highest level since the September 11 attacks.

But Iraq is just part of the equation. There is some concern extremists could act next week during the hajj, when Muslims worldwide make a pilgrimage to Mecca, and most troublesome to officials, an increase in intelligence in the recent weeks suggesting another al Qaeda attack.

KENNETH KATZMAN, CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE: the Al Qaeda organization might sympathize with Iraq's plight at this point. And I think we're at a point of maximum activity on the part of al Qaeda to try to conduct some sort of attack, perhaps here, perhaps overseas.

ARENA: Sources say the FBI has a handful of individuals in the United States who are believed to be Iraqi intelligence officers under surveillance, along with hundreds of Iraqi sympathizers.

Sources say the FBI has not found evidence of any active terror cells in the U.S., but point out there is a danger individuals may act on their own. For example, officials say there have been briefings about the possible threat of suicide bombers, like those in Israel. Agents have also been warned to think outside the box. Not all terrorists are young men, but women, too, pose a threat.

It is important to underscore that the national threat level remains unchanged at yellow or elevated. What's more, officials point out that, since 9/11, there has been a steady ebb and flow of intelligence about the possibility of another attack. That intelligence, along with updated information on how al Qaeda has involved, will be included in the FBI's first-ever national threat report to Congress next week.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Got a little backed up tonight, need to take a break.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll have more reaction to Secretary Powell's speech from one of the Democratic leaders in the Senate. Senator Joe Biden joins us.

And segment seven tonight: We replay a long portion of Secretary Powell's speech for those of you who missed it earlier.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We told you at the top of the program about the four soldiers killed in that accident in Afghanistan the other day, one of the deadliest days for U.S. forces since we went into Afghanistan more than a year ago now.

And it's a reminder of the risk the country continues to face even after the bombs start falling. The unfamiliar terrain, the sometimes dangerous hostility, it's something the country would surely face with Iraq. And the question of what comes after a war, if there is a war, is one great concern for Senator Joe Biden.

We talked with the senator earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator, let's start with perhaps the obvious one.

Did Secretary of State Powell today close the deal, in your mind, to those who at least have an open mind about the situation in Iraq?

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: Absolutely.

He made a compelling case, the predominance of the evidence, the pure weight of the evidence. I think anyone -- let me put it this way. If I were back practicing law, I can't imagine I could not convince an open-minded jury of the facts that he presented as having been true.

BROWN: And so, are we now, all of us in this world, a step closer to a war?

BIDEN: We may be a step closer to peace. I know that sounds contradictory.

Right now, there's three basic things that happened. One, the ball, as they say, is in Saddam's court. He's the one that chooses war and peace. I think the Security Council is going to say, let's see what Hans Blix says in a week or 10 days, when he reports to us.

And the second thing is, the Security Council is on the line here. They're either going to prove they're relevant or irrelevant, because I don't think any open-minded person could argue that Saddam is not in material breach of the U.N. Resolution 1441. But the third part isn't done yet, isn't touched yet. We have made the first case. Now we have got to make the case to the American people, not whether or not Saddam is in material breach -- quote, unquote -- but whether or not -- what is going to be asked of the American people if we go to war? What is going to be expected of them?

And I think right now, Aaron, most Americans think that, if we go to war, it will be relatively quick, pray God, there won't be that many casualties, American casualties, and that Johnny will come marching home in weeks or a month or so. But Johnny is going to stay there. Somewhere -- tens of thousands of Johnnys and Janes are going to stay there.

And they're going to be there with boots on the ground, carbines loaded, protecting the border, trying to put a new government in place, making sure the oil fields are protected, making sure that retribution from the million Shias coming back out of Iran into Iraq and so on -- it's going to be a big job. That's when the hard slogging starts.

BROWN: It seems to me, sir, that that is something, that discussion about what happens after a war, has hardly been discussed by the administration at all.

BIDEN: They don't want to discuss it.

BROWN: Has the administration failed, in a sense, to prepare the American people properly for the occupation of Iraq, if it comes to that?

BIDEN: It will come to that, if it comes to war. And it has not yet made that case.

Now, let me give the benefit of the doubt to the administration. The administration has been saying that war can still be avoided. There still is a possibility, if the whole world unites through another U.N. resolution, that Saddam may choose to leave, rather than to be taken down. But now is the time.

And what Senator Lugar and I -- a Republican, now chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, a job I used to have -- and I have been saying is, we want to know that the administration has planned this. So we asked -- I asked today at the White House at the meeting, tell us what the plans are for after a war, if there's a war.

And, for the first time, Dr. Rice was able to lay out what the mission would be: for example, secure the borders, make sure that retribution does not result in a civil war, make sure Iraq stays whole. And I responded and said, OK, how many people are going to be required to do that, so we can tell the American people? Because, Aaron, I don't only want to don't surprise -- don't want to surprise the American people. They'll support us if we ask, but what I don't want to do is leave our military high and dry.

When I was in Qatar just a -- several weeks ago and speaking to a couple hundred of the folks out there, mostly generals who were in Franks' headquarters, they wanted to know from me: Where will you guys be 18 months down the road, when we need maybe more soldiers, more billions of dollars? Are you going to choose between us and a tax cut, us and a health care program?

And so I think we all have to sign up on this front end, front end.

BROWN: Well, it does seem it's a conversation that needs to be had, a public conversation that needs to be had. We appreciate a lot you're starting it. As we said, it seems to me it's been one that's been avoided to this point.

It's always good to talk to you, Senator.

BIDEN: Thank you, Aaron. I appreciate it.

BROWN: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator Joe Biden -- we talked with him late this afternoon.

Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT, segment seven is coming up. We'll look at some of the key moments of today's most important speech by Secretary of State Powell at the United Nations.

From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Finally from us tonight: the case in brief.

We began with Secretary of State Powell's presentation before the U.N. today and we end with it as well. It's not that we think our earlier reporting was incomplete. We don't, not at all. But we do know that most of you were busy doing life this morning and having seen only snippets of sound throughout the day. So, here is a longer version, not all of it, of course, but enough to give you both facts and flavor. And both count.

So, here is the case in brief.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

POWELL: What you will see is an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior. The facts on Iraqis' behavior -- Iraq's behavior demonstrate that Saddam Hussein and his regime have made no effort -- no effort -- to disarm as required by the international community. Indeed, the facts and Iraq's behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction.

Let me begin by playing a tape for you. What you're about to hear is a conversation that my government monitored. It takes place on November 26 of last year, on the day before United Nations teams resumed inspections in Iraq.

The conversation involves two senior officers, a colonel and a brigadier general, from Iraq's elite military unit, the Republican Guard.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): Peace. We just have a small question.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): About this committee that is coming.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): When Mohamed ElBaradei...

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes. Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): We have this modified vehicle.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): What do we say if one of them sees it?

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): You didn't get a modified -- you don't have a modified...

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): By God, I have one.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Which? From the workshop?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): From the al-Kindi Company.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): What?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): From al-Kindi.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes, yes. I'll come to you in the morning. I have some comments. I'm worried you all have something left.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): We evacuated everything. We don't have anything left.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): I will come to you tomorrow.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): OK.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): I have a conference at headquarters. Before I attend the conference, I will come to you.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

POWELL: The gravity of this moment is matched by the gravity of the threat that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction pose to the world. Let me now turn to those deadly weapons programs and describe why they are real and present dangers to the region and to the world.

First, biological weapons. We have talked frequently here about biological weapons. By way of introduction and history, I think there are just three quick points I need to make.

First, you will recall that it took UNSCOM four long and frustrating years to pry -- to pry -- an admission out of Iraq that it had biological weapons.

Second, when Iraq finally admitted having these weapons in 1995, the quantities were vast. Less than a teaspoon of dry anthrax, a little bit about this amount -- this is just about the amount of a teaspoon -- less than a teaspoon full of dry anthrax in an envelope shutdown the United States Senate in the fall of 2001. This forced several hundred people to undergo emergency medical treatment and killed two postal workers just from an amount just about this quantity that was inside of an envelope.

Iraq declared 8,500 liters of anthrax, but UNSCOM estimates that Saddam Hussein could have produced 25,000 liters. If concentrated into this dry form, this amount would be enough to fill tens upon tens upon tens of thousands of teaspoons. And Saddam Hussein has not verifiably accounted for even one teaspoon-full of this deadly material.

One of the most worrisome things that emerges from the thick intelligence file we have on Iraq's biological weapons is the existence of mobile production facilities used to make biological agents.

Let me take you inside that intelligence file and share with you what we know from eye witness accounts. We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails.

The trucks and train cars are easily moved and are designed to evade detection by inspectors. In a matter of months, they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the Gulf War.

We also have sources who tell us that, since the 1980s, Saddam's regime has been experimenting on human beings to perfect its biological or chemical weapons.

A source said that 1,600 death row prisoners were transferred in 1995 to a special unit for such experiments. An eyewitness saw prisoners tied down to beds, experiments conducted on them, blood oozing around the victim's mouths and autopsies performed to confirm the effects on the prisoners. Saddam Hussein's humanity -- inhumanity has no limits.

My colleagues, we have an obligation to our citizens. We have an obligation to this body to see that our resolutions are complied with. We wrote 1441 not in order to go to war, we wrote 1441 to try to preserve the peace. We wrote 1441 to give Iraq one last chance. Iraq is not so far taking that one last chance.

We must not shrink from whatever is ahead of us. We must not fail in our duty and our responsibility to the citizens of the countries that are represented by this body.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Secretary of State Powell before the Security Council today.

That's our report for tonight.

If you have not yet, sign up for our daily e-mail. Go to CNN.com/NEWSNIGHT and sign up. It will give you a preview of the program and occasional meanderings by me. Well, the program is the cool part.

We'll see you tomorrow. Good to be back in New York. Good to see you all. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 5, 2003 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: And good evening again, everyone. For days now we have grieved and honored the seven astronauts who died aboard Columbia. Their story has occupied hundreds of hours of air time, in part because of how they died, but in large part because of what they did. They were space travelers, and space is a glamour business for most of us.
Every minute spent talking about them was worth it we think. But they were not the only ones to die in recent days. And so add these names to the list of people whose families and whose children cry. Thomas Gibbons (ph), Daniel Kissling (ph), Gregory Frampton, and Mark Osteen (ph). Between them, they leave nearly 10 children without dads. Their lives and deaths got lost in the tragedy of the shuttle, for they died in Afghanistan.

They were what the Army calls night stalkers. Soldiers who slip in behind enemy lines in the dark of night. They were killed in a helicopter accident and they are also heroes.

Only in the movies is soldiery glamorous work. For months now we have paid scant attention to the thousands of American soldiers on duty tonight in Afghanistan. They are there, they are at risk, and sometimes they die. Twenty-two in accidents; another 25 killed by enemy fire.

They don't get special reports on the evening news. They probably won't get schools named after them or movies made about their lives. Until this moment, you probably had never heard their names. On a day when the country seems to be taking a step closer to war, it is not a bad thing to remember war's most basic reality.

So again, for the record, and because it's right, we remember tonight Thomas Gibbons (ph) and Daniel Kissling (ph) and Gregory Frampton (ph) and Mark Osteen (ph). May their families, like the families of the astronauts, feel the gratitude of their nation.

Much of the program tonight will be spent on the subject of Iraq and Secretary Powell at the U.N., how the world is reacting. We begin "The Whip" tonight with State Department correspondent Andrea Koppel, who is at the U.N. tonight. Andrea, a headline from you, please.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, a senior State Department official described Secretary Powell's presentation this way. And while it may sound cute, he was deadly serious. He said the U.S. Approach was more like the 1963 Dodgers than it was the 1927 Yankees. He said that it wasn't about hitting a -- it was more about hitting a series of line drives rather than it was about hitting home runs.

BROWN: Andrea, thank you. Back to you at the top tonight.

Reaction from Baghdad as well. Nic Robertson there. Nic, a headline.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the response from here quick and caustic. The Iraqi officials said that Secretary of State Colin Powell's address was a typical American show full of stunts, he said -- Aaron.

BROWN: Nic, thank you. We'll be back to Baghdad.

Secretary Powell facing deep skepticism in many parts of Europe. For European action, Robin Oakley is in Paris. Robin, a headline from you.

ROBIN OAKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Here in Paris, Aaron, no instant conversion. The French have sent an aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, but they're still putting the emphasis on giving the inspectors in Iraq more time. And the key will be the French attitude when it comes to a vote on a second U.N. Security Council resolution.

BROWN: Robin, thank you.

And finally, in "The Whip" tonight, the latest on the shuttle investigation. And of course Miles O'Brien is on that. Miles, a headline from you.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN SPACE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, what a difference a day makes. Yesterday it seemed the leading theory was a piece of foam falling off during launch, which might have led to the demise of Columbia. Today the man in charge of the shuttle program says it just doesn't make sense, it has to be something else. But what?

BROWN: Miles, thank you. Back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up on the program tonight, we'll talk with Henry Kissinger about what Secretary Powell said and what the world heard. Also, Senator Joe Biden, too. The U.S. says that this man is the link between Iraq and al Qaeda. We'll look at who he is and what evidence there is to back up the secretary. Sheila MacVicar with that report.

And does confronting Iraq put us in jeopardy of another terrorist attack? The United States not taking any chances. Kelli Arena working that story. All that and more in the hour ahead.

But we begin with the case for the prosecution. Today, Secretary of State Powell brought the United Nations Security Council the administration's best evidence so far that Iraq is concealing weapons of mass destruction and deceiving the inspectors trying to find them. This is what we've all been waiting for, what other countries have been asking for. It's what Americans say they wanted to see before supporting a war with Iraq. So was it enough? It depends on who you ask. Early results of a quick CNN poll show the vast number of Americans familiar with the presentation are now persuaded. Seventy-nine percent say Secretary Powell made a very good or a fairly good case. Only 13 percent believe otherwise.

But Americans are just one audience the secretary was aiming at. Others are proving more skeptical, at least early on. We have much on this tonight, and we begin at the U.N. with CNN's Andrea Koppel.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: What you will see is an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior.

KOPPEL (voice-over): For more than an hour, Secretary of State Powell held court.

POWELL: Numerous human sources tell us that the Iraqis are moving not just documents and hard drives, but weapons of mass destruction to keep them from being found by inspectors.

KOPPEL: In a high-tech multi-media presentation, Powell presented newly declassified intelligence which the U.S. claims proves Iraq has an active program to develop weapons of mass destruction.

POWELL: We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails.

KOPPEL: Using charts and graphics, Powell said the U.S. believes Iraq has at least seven mobile biological agent factories mounted on at least 18 trucks.

POWELL: Just a few weeks ago we intercepted communications between two commanders in Iraq's second Republican Guard Corps.

KOPPEL: Playing audio intercepts, Powell said one Iraqi officer ordered another to stop using the expression "nerve agents." Holding a vile in his hand, Powell said Iraq had declared 8,500 liters of anthrax but had not accounted for even one teaspoon.

POWELL: This is just about the amount of a teaspoon. Less than a teaspoon full of dry anthrax in an envelope shut down the United States Senate in the fall of 2001.

KOPPEL: Most of Powell's show and tell focused on Iraq's alleged weapons program. But he also presented evidence that Iraq had harbored terrorists in northeastern Iraq, including a top al Qaeda operative, Abu Musab Zarqawi, a specialist in poisons.

POWELL: He traveled to Baghdad in May 2002 for medical treatment, staying in the capital of Iraq for two months while he recuperated to fight another day.

KOPPEL: Iraq dismissed Powell's allegations out of hand. MOHAMMED ALDOURI, IRAQI AMBASSADOR TO U.N. (through translator): The pronouncements in Mr. Powell's statements on weapons of mass destruction are utterly unrelated to the truth.

KOPPEL: In prepared statements following Powell's presentation, skeptical foreign ministers, including permanent members of the Security Council with veto power, turned the tables on the U.S.

DOMINIQUE DE VILLEPIN, FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): Let's just double, let's just triple the number of inspectors. Let's just open more regional offices. Let's just go further than this.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Now begins yet another round of heavy duty diplomacy. But U.S. officials say, Aaron, that they still expect it to be another couple of days before they get a real sense as to whether or not Secretary Powell's presentation succeeded in actually changing any minds -- Aaron.

BROWN: They're really playing to a relatively small audience of I guess four other countries who have permanent veto power, permanent seats on the Security Council. Any sense that the ground shifted at all today?

KOPPEL: Well, privately, U.S. officials are pointing to some of the statements that the French made. And, as you know, Aaron, the French have been most vocal in their opposition to any sort of -- any sort of move, (UNINTELLIGIBLE) move towards war. And they're the ones who have been encouraging the inspectors to have has much time as they need.

U.S. officials have pointed out a couple of things that the French have said which seemed to leave the door open to the possibility that there may need to be a second resolution and that in fact the inspections may have failed. But in point of fact, the French seem to be sticking to their guns. The Chinese and the Russians as well. But when push comes to shove, U.S. officials privately say that they're still quite confident that they'll be able to get the French, the Chinese and the Russians' vote if in fact it comes to that stage, Aaron.

BROWN: Andrea, thank you. Andrea Koppel outside the U.N. tonight.

On to Baghdad next, where it is quiet tonight. We've been reporting for some time now about a sense of resignation setting in there, a belief that war is coming no matter what. Today the words reflected again that belief. Here again from Baghdad, CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): It took nearly two hours of analysis before Iraqi officials responded to Colin Powell's accusations. GEN. AMER AL-SA'ADI, HUSSEIN SCIENTIFIC ADVISER: This was a typical American show, complete with stunts and special effects. However, the whole performance is in violation of Security Council Resolution 1441.

ROBERTSON: The 20-minute rebuttal was delivered by the very man Powell accused of working to deceive the inspectors. The charge General Amer al-Sa'adi denied.

AL-SA'ADI: The order given to me from early is to tell everything as it was.

ROBERTSON: All counts put forward by Powell dismissed by Al- Sa'adi, who said a detailed response would quickly be sent to the U.N. Powell's motives, he said, were suspect.

AL-SA'ADI: His findings and allegations are a deliberate attempt to undermine the credibility and professionalism of the inspection bodies.

ROBERTSON: Al-Sa'adi careful to leave open cooperation with those inspectors. A little earlier in Baghdad's oldest tea house, where the pace is slow, an analysis, often thoughtful, Powell already seemed prejudged.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He is looking for a desperate pretext or excuse to hit Iraq.

ROBERTSON: None in the cafe's relaxed atmosphere appeared outwardly concerned. However, a sense of fatalism is setting in. "There is nothing else we can do," he says. "We can only wish for peace."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: For most here, the issue of the U.N. inspectors is black and white. That is, they believe their President Saddam Hussein that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction. And for that reason many people here now really appear to be wondering if war can be avoided at all -- Aaron.

BROWN: The chief U.N. weapons inspector is en route to Baghdad. Are the Iraqis ready to give some ground?

ROBERTSON: Nothing that we've heard so far, Aaron. Those three key issues, surveillance, aircraft, the U-2s, the private interviews with the scientists on the passage of legislation outlawing weapons of mass destruction, no indication of movement. We know in the past Iraq has engaged in a diplomacy, a brinkmanship. It will move back if there's a strong threat of force and it feels it has nowhere to go. But no indication of that at this stage.

BROWN: Nic, thank you. Nic Robertson in Baghdad tonight.

We get some sense of how this will all play out by looking at the front pages of tomorrow's newspapers from around the country and around the world. This is what they'll see in Detroit, Michigan, in "The Detroit Free Press." The headline reads War of Words." The picture, Secretary Powell holding that small vile of anthrax. That's the Detroit paper.

"The Jerusalem Post" headlines two major stories. The Powell at the U.N. story is the major story, but there are two NASA Columbia stories, as you would expect because of Ilan Ramon who was on board the Columbia. "The Moscow Times," the English language paper in the Russian capital, "Powell Presents Recordings and Photos" is the headline that English-speaking Russians will see.

And quickly, "The Daily Telegraph," one of the tabloids in London, "The Evidence." There you go. That's a snapshot of what the morning papers tomorrow will look like. Here's more reaction from Europe and CNN's Robin Oakley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OAKLEY (voice-over): Colin Powell is one man on the Bush team trusted widely by Europe's leaders. And his U.N. address had the recruiting drums for a war coalition beating a little louder across the Atlantic.

The European Union, often a U.S. critic, warned Saddam Hussein must now disarm or face the consequences. Ten eastern European countries have issued a statement that they'll sign up to support the U.S. The U.K.'s foreign secretary said Saddam had been offered the chance for peace and failed to take it.

JACK STRAW, U.K. FOREIGN SECRETARY: If noncooperation continues, this council must meet its responsibilities.

OAKLEY: And he didn't mean by waving papers. In France, the public and government have been skeptical.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: French public opinion and, likewise, European public opinion, doesn't trust George W. Bush, doesn't trust his aims. Thinks that he has ulterior motives with oil (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

OAKLEY: So had Powell made a difference there? These engineering graduates watching the news didn't seem to think so.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There has been such a big fuss about this proof. And actually I think they are really very small, very tiny.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This kind of justifies (UNINTELLIGIBLE) a mass destruction industry in Iraq.

OAKLEY: But the U.N. France continues to demand for inspectors to be given more time. But Jacques Chirac has begun hedging his bets. The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaules sailed this week for the eastern Mediterranean. And analysts reckon that at the end of the day French troops will be in action.

BARTHELEMY COURMONT, INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC RELATIONS: We consider that if the inspectors or anyone else like special forces can find any proof, we will definitely accept it and go into a war. But if not, we need to give more time.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OAKLEY: It will take time, Aaron, for the full European reaction to Colin Powell's presentation to develop. Certainly it seems there's little chance of Germany backing a war, but the French could yet come aboard. But only after they've been the center of attention for a little while longer -- Aaron.

BROWN: Robin, thank you very much. Robin Oakley, who is in Paris for us tonight.

Also with us here in New York, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Dr. Kissinger, I asked Senator Joe Biden the same question. We'll play that interview a little later. Did Colin Powell close the deal today in your mind for anyone who has yet objectively to make up their mind?

HENRY KISSINGER, FMR. SECRETARY OF STATE: I think for anybody who analyzes the situation, he has closed the deal in the sense when the secretary of state of the United States (UNINTELLIGIBLE) behind an hour-long description of facts, when this is backed by the British intelligence and not really challenged in detail by the French, what can be the consequences of some foreign minister saying his experts have a slightly different view?

Are we supposed to march 200,000 troops out of the Middle East? What are the consequences? I frankly don't know what some of our allies think they're doing except to play with their own public opinion so that two, three weeks from now they can say now they are persuaded, which I think is the basic aim that France is playing.

BROWN: You mentioned that there's already tens of thousands of American troops in the region.

KISSINGER: Probably hundreds of thousands.

BROWN: Right. Are you saying, then, by implication that we have crossed the Rubicon, as it were? That -- let's accept reality that there's going to be a war?

KISSINGER: No, I'm not saying there has to be a war. I think there are two theoretical possibilities in which the war can be avoided. One is for Saddam to leave office and leave the country. The other one would be for Saddam to say, I didn't quite understand what you people were talking about and I have a lot of chemical and research and pesticide research. And if that's what you call a weapon -- but even then a system would have to be set up that does not depend on his compliance. So the two possibilities that I could foresee still require for him in effect to leave office.

BROWN: This may seem off the wall, I hope it doesn't, but I assume that actually people think about such things. He's sitting there in Baghdad, he knows what's around him, he knows that if in fact a war comes he's going to lose. He has to know that.

What kind of a game is he playing? What do you think?

KISSINGER: We're dealing with a maniac on the one hand. We're dealing with a man who has executed people in his cabinet room. He killed his son-in-law after giving him promise of safe conduct, and he did it rather cleverly. He didn't kill him himself, he got the family of the son-in-law to kill him.

And so -- and thirdly, insofar if he's rational, he may be thinking that somewhere along the line the United States will recoil, that there will be some U.N. vote that will make it impossible. And you have to remember, if he is in office by the end of this year, I think this will be a saddening (ph) setback not just for us, but for the very people in Europe who are now harassing us.

BROWN: Do you think that any of this European reaction on the streets -- and a lot of people observed this in Davos -- this anti- American feeling, is because they sensed that the president himself has personalized this, that he's, to use an expression, a cowboy, and that that makes them uncomfortable?

KISSINGER: Well, look, he's a type -- they haven't seen a Texas president since Johnson, and they weren't crazy about Johnson. But it's also a feeling -- it depends on the country. I think France is bargaining for a role in the postwar settlement. And they want to prove that we cannot trudge all over them. And on that point, I think it is valid to say the United States cannot unilaterally normally just decide to go to war, but this is not a normal situation.

We've been attacked. This is part of the war against terror, because you cannot have weapons of mass destruction in the middle of the area from which the terrorists came and from which the terrorists are being financed today. Germany is going through a huge domestic crisis. They have a real identity problem now, and they have really divided country with the former communist party not really knowing where they belong.

BROWN: Yes. Well it's always good to see you and I hope you'll come back and talk some more about all of this. Thank you for your time tonight.

KISSINGER: Thank you for asking me.

BROWN: Thank you. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger with us.

We have much more tonight on the program. The hunt for debris, of course, and for a cause of what brought down the shuttle Columbia. Miles O'Brien joins us. Sheila MacVicar later on the man that Secretary Powell zeroed in on today in drawing a line between Iraq and al Qaeda. We have much more on NEWSNIGHT from CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Now to the investigation surrounding the Columbia disaster and two searches across vastly different terrain. The first is one you've seen a lot of, the search for debris that now spans more than half the continent in the hope of putting the key puzzle pieces of the Columbia back together.

The second is one that seems to be taking on even greater importance: the search into the depths of NASA's own computer data, focusing not on the first 81 seconds of Columbia's mission, but on the final 32. Once again, CNN's Miles O'Brien.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN (voice-over): Take a look at these before and after images. Do you see a difference? Well, neither does NASA. And it is one reason the team investigating the crash of Columbia is placing less emphasis on the theory foam debris falling from the shuttle's external fuel tank might have dislodged or disturbed some insulating tiles, sealing Columbia's fate 81 seconds after launch.

RON DITTEMORE, SHUTTLE PROGRAM MANAGER: Right now, it just does not make sense to us that a piece of debris would be the root cause for the loss of Columbia and its crew. There's got to be another reason.

O'BRIEN: Shuttle program manager Ron Dittemore brought a piece of the material to illustrate the point. It's not unlike spray on foam insulation used by do-it-yourselfers. When it cures, it's hard and very light. He said engineers who analyzed this film added weight and speed to their computer models and still concluded the foam strike did not cause serious damage.

But what if the foam was coated with ice? The team that inspected Columbia for ice buildup before launch did not report any unusual buildups.

DITTEMORE: I don't think it's ice. I don't think there is an embedded ice question here. I don't think this came off as a chunk of foam solidified with ice.

O'BRIEN: A space shuttle that is falling toward Earth is flown by computer. Dittemore says during Columbia's final minutes, hurdling in the darkness, enveloped by red hot plasma, the auto pilot moved flaps called elevons (ph) rapidly and fired rocket thrusters to compensate for some drag on the left side.

DITTEMORE: The flight control system is trying to overcome a disturbance. And it is doing well at maintaining control, but it's losing the battle.

O'BRIEN: That is why investigators are anxious to try to recover some garbled data, apparently transmitted by Columbia 32 seconds after mission control lost contact with the crew. They're also hoping debris found in California might offer the best clue yet, since it could tell them what began falling off Columbia first.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

O'BRIEN: There's one other way to find out where the problem began. Engineers will take a look at all those high temperature readings which they've recovered form the telemetry data here in Houston, here in the elevons (ph) and the side of the fuselage and down here by the wheel well, and they can virtually triangulate the spot where the weakness occurred by using their computer models. So stay tuned on that one, Aaron.

BROWN: Well we stay tuned on all of it. It does feel that we are each day learning less, in some respects. That things that we thought we knew on Sunday or Monday we are less certain of on Wednesday.

O'BRIEN: It's interesting, because how many times do we say don't put the blinders on, and then we proceeded to go with our leading theory? And here we are today, as you say, the more we know, the less we seem to know.

BROWN: Miles, thank you. We'll see what tomorrow's chapter brings. Miles O'Brien stationed in Houston tonight.

As NEWSNIGHT continues, the terror connection. Sheila MacVicar reports on the man the Bush administration connects the Iraqis to the al Qaeda terror network. That and much more as NEWSNIGHT continues back home in New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In making the case today, Secretary Powell borrowed a bit from the news business. He took the reverse-pyramid approach, putting the most solid and persuasive material at the top and the iffier items, if you will, at the end, chief among them, this tantalizing question of a connection between Iraq and al Qaeda. It has tied the administration in knots since September 11, a year ago. And nothing Secretary Powell said today has been more hotly contested within the intelligence community than this.

Here's CNN's Sheila MacVicar.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHEILA MACVICAR, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Secretary of State Powell called the relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda a -- quote -- "sinister nexus" and said this man was the link.

POWELL: Iraq today harbors a deadly terrorist network headed by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, an associated in collaborator of Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda lieutenants.

MACVICAR: Powell said this camp in Northern Iraq was established by Zarqawi's networks for training in poisons. He says that although it was in area not controlled by Saddam Hussein's government, a senior agent representing Baghdad had offered al Qaeda safe haven in the region. And Powell claimed that Zarqawi had established a network of two dozen men in Baghdad last summer while he was getting medical treatment there.

POWELL: These al Qaeda affiliates, based in Baghdad, now coordinate the movement of people, money and supplies into and throughout Iraq for his network. MACVICAR: Powell reminded the Security Council that the Jordanian government said Zarqawi was behind the assassination of U.S. diplomat Laurence Foley in Amman last October. And the U.S. secretary of state used this chart to show a link between Zarqawi and a series of recent plots allegedly aimed at using chemical and biological weapons in France, Britain and other European countries.

(on camera): European intelligence agencies say they have evidence that Zarqawi trained those people in the use of poisons, but they say they have seen no credible evidence of any links between Zarqawi, al Qaeda and the Iraqis. And a top-secret British intelligence document leaked just hours before Powell's speech, written just three weeks ago, said attempts to form a relationship between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein had foundered on grounds of mutual suspicion.

(voice-over): Iraq's ambassador quoted a denial made by Saddam Hussein.

AL-DOURI (through translator): "If we had a relationship with al Qaeda and we believed in that relationship, we would not be ashamed to admit it."

MACVICAR: Zarqawi, who is a Jordanian, apparently isn't in Iraq. Intelligence sources tell CNN he has traveled throughout the region, to Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and even in Georgia to train the men arrested in Europe. His last known whereabouts? They say not in Iraq, but in neighboring Iran.

Sheila MacVicar, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A few more stories from around the world, starting with the elephant in the corner of the room, North Korea: Today, the North Korean government reactivated a nuclear reactor that is able to make plutonium for atomic bombs. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld today called it a worrisome thing, his words. He also says there is evidence to suggest that North Korea has already assembled two nuclear bombs.

Bloody day in the Middle East: two Palestinian men killed by gunfire from an Israeli helicopter in Gaza. Earlier in the day, the mother of a suspected terrorist was crushed to death when Israeli forces tore down her home. The IDF has launched an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the woman's death.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT for this Wednesday: The spread of war with Iraq is raising new terror concerns at home. Kelli Arena has that story -- coming up. And a little bit later, we'll talk with Democratic Senator Joe Biden about his take on Secretary Powell's speech today. And what of Iraq after a war?

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: And next on NEWSNIGHT: concerns that a war with Iraq will increase the danger of terrorism in the United States.

A short break -- right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There have been pitched battles fought over the question of how a war with Iraq would affect the overall climate for terrorism. Would it unleash a new wave of angry young men ready to take on the West in the worst possible way or send the opposite message? Reasonable people, we believe, on this, can differ. In the government's view, though, there is reason to take extra precautions, regardless.

Here's CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the U.S. moves closer to taking on Saddam Hussein, counterterrorism officials tell CNN the concern about a possible terror attack on U.S. soil is at the highest level since the September 11 attacks.

But Iraq is just part of the equation. There is some concern extremists could act next week during the hajj, when Muslims worldwide make a pilgrimage to Mecca, and most troublesome to officials, an increase in intelligence in the recent weeks suggesting another al Qaeda attack.

KENNETH KATZMAN, CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE: the Al Qaeda organization might sympathize with Iraq's plight at this point. And I think we're at a point of maximum activity on the part of al Qaeda to try to conduct some sort of attack, perhaps here, perhaps overseas.

ARENA: Sources say the FBI has a handful of individuals in the United States who are believed to be Iraqi intelligence officers under surveillance, along with hundreds of Iraqi sympathizers.

Sources say the FBI has not found evidence of any active terror cells in the U.S., but point out there is a danger individuals may act on their own. For example, officials say there have been briefings about the possible threat of suicide bombers, like those in Israel. Agents have also been warned to think outside the box. Not all terrorists are young men, but women, too, pose a threat.

It is important to underscore that the national threat level remains unchanged at yellow or elevated. What's more, officials point out that, since 9/11, there has been a steady ebb and flow of intelligence about the possibility of another attack. That intelligence, along with updated information on how al Qaeda has involved, will be included in the FBI's first-ever national threat report to Congress next week.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Got a little backed up tonight, need to take a break.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll have more reaction to Secretary Powell's speech from one of the Democratic leaders in the Senate. Senator Joe Biden joins us.

And segment seven tonight: We replay a long portion of Secretary Powell's speech for those of you who missed it earlier.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We told you at the top of the program about the four soldiers killed in that accident in Afghanistan the other day, one of the deadliest days for U.S. forces since we went into Afghanistan more than a year ago now.

And it's a reminder of the risk the country continues to face even after the bombs start falling. The unfamiliar terrain, the sometimes dangerous hostility, it's something the country would surely face with Iraq. And the question of what comes after a war, if there is a war, is one great concern for Senator Joe Biden.

We talked with the senator earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator, let's start with perhaps the obvious one.

Did Secretary of State Powell today close the deal, in your mind, to those who at least have an open mind about the situation in Iraq?

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: Absolutely.

He made a compelling case, the predominance of the evidence, the pure weight of the evidence. I think anyone -- let me put it this way. If I were back practicing law, I can't imagine I could not convince an open-minded jury of the facts that he presented as having been true.

BROWN: And so, are we now, all of us in this world, a step closer to a war?

BIDEN: We may be a step closer to peace. I know that sounds contradictory.

Right now, there's three basic things that happened. One, the ball, as they say, is in Saddam's court. He's the one that chooses war and peace. I think the Security Council is going to say, let's see what Hans Blix says in a week or 10 days, when he reports to us.

And the second thing is, the Security Council is on the line here. They're either going to prove they're relevant or irrelevant, because I don't think any open-minded person could argue that Saddam is not in material breach of the U.N. Resolution 1441. But the third part isn't done yet, isn't touched yet. We have made the first case. Now we have got to make the case to the American people, not whether or not Saddam is in material breach -- quote, unquote -- but whether or not -- what is going to be asked of the American people if we go to war? What is going to be expected of them?

And I think right now, Aaron, most Americans think that, if we go to war, it will be relatively quick, pray God, there won't be that many casualties, American casualties, and that Johnny will come marching home in weeks or a month or so. But Johnny is going to stay there. Somewhere -- tens of thousands of Johnnys and Janes are going to stay there.

And they're going to be there with boots on the ground, carbines loaded, protecting the border, trying to put a new government in place, making sure the oil fields are protected, making sure that retribution from the million Shias coming back out of Iran into Iraq and so on -- it's going to be a big job. That's when the hard slogging starts.

BROWN: It seems to me, sir, that that is something, that discussion about what happens after a war, has hardly been discussed by the administration at all.

BIDEN: They don't want to discuss it.

BROWN: Has the administration failed, in a sense, to prepare the American people properly for the occupation of Iraq, if it comes to that?

BIDEN: It will come to that, if it comes to war. And it has not yet made that case.

Now, let me give the benefit of the doubt to the administration. The administration has been saying that war can still be avoided. There still is a possibility, if the whole world unites through another U.N. resolution, that Saddam may choose to leave, rather than to be taken down. But now is the time.

And what Senator Lugar and I -- a Republican, now chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, a job I used to have -- and I have been saying is, we want to know that the administration has planned this. So we asked -- I asked today at the White House at the meeting, tell us what the plans are for after a war, if there's a war.

And, for the first time, Dr. Rice was able to lay out what the mission would be: for example, secure the borders, make sure that retribution does not result in a civil war, make sure Iraq stays whole. And I responded and said, OK, how many people are going to be required to do that, so we can tell the American people? Because, Aaron, I don't only want to don't surprise -- don't want to surprise the American people. They'll support us if we ask, but what I don't want to do is leave our military high and dry.

When I was in Qatar just a -- several weeks ago and speaking to a couple hundred of the folks out there, mostly generals who were in Franks' headquarters, they wanted to know from me: Where will you guys be 18 months down the road, when we need maybe more soldiers, more billions of dollars? Are you going to choose between us and a tax cut, us and a health care program?

And so I think we all have to sign up on this front end, front end.

BROWN: Well, it does seem it's a conversation that needs to be had, a public conversation that needs to be had. We appreciate a lot you're starting it. As we said, it seems to me it's been one that's been avoided to this point.

It's always good to talk to you, Senator.

BIDEN: Thank you, Aaron. I appreciate it.

BROWN: Thank you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Senator Joe Biden -- we talked with him late this afternoon.

Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT, segment seven is coming up. We'll look at some of the key moments of today's most important speech by Secretary of State Powell at the United Nations.

From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Finally from us tonight: the case in brief.

We began with Secretary of State Powell's presentation before the U.N. today and we end with it as well. It's not that we think our earlier reporting was incomplete. We don't, not at all. But we do know that most of you were busy doing life this morning and having seen only snippets of sound throughout the day. So, here is a longer version, not all of it, of course, but enough to give you both facts and flavor. And both count.

So, here is the case in brief.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

POWELL: What you will see is an accumulation of facts and disturbing patterns of behavior. The facts on Iraqis' behavior -- Iraq's behavior demonstrate that Saddam Hussein and his regime have made no effort -- no effort -- to disarm as required by the international community. Indeed, the facts and Iraq's behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction.

Let me begin by playing a tape for you. What you're about to hear is a conversation that my government monitored. It takes place on November 26 of last year, on the day before United Nations teams resumed inspections in Iraq.

The conversation involves two senior officers, a colonel and a brigadier general, from Iraq's elite military unit, the Republican Guard.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): Peace. We just have a small question.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): About this committee that is coming.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): When Mohamed ElBaradei...

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes. Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): We have this modified vehicle.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): What do we say if one of them sees it?

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): You didn't get a modified -- you don't have a modified...

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): By God, I have one.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Which? From the workshop?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): From the al-Kindi Company.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): What?

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): From al-Kindi.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): Yes, yes. I'll come to you in the morning. I have some comments. I'm worried you all have something left.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): We evacuated everything. We don't have anything left.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): I will come to you tomorrow.

UNIDENTIFIED COLONEL (through translator): OK.

UNIDENTIFIED GENERAL (through translator): I have a conference at headquarters. Before I attend the conference, I will come to you.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

POWELL: The gravity of this moment is matched by the gravity of the threat that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction pose to the world. Let me now turn to those deadly weapons programs and describe why they are real and present dangers to the region and to the world.

First, biological weapons. We have talked frequently here about biological weapons. By way of introduction and history, I think there are just three quick points I need to make.

First, you will recall that it took UNSCOM four long and frustrating years to pry -- to pry -- an admission out of Iraq that it had biological weapons.

Second, when Iraq finally admitted having these weapons in 1995, the quantities were vast. Less than a teaspoon of dry anthrax, a little bit about this amount -- this is just about the amount of a teaspoon -- less than a teaspoon full of dry anthrax in an envelope shutdown the United States Senate in the fall of 2001. This forced several hundred people to undergo emergency medical treatment and killed two postal workers just from an amount just about this quantity that was inside of an envelope.

Iraq declared 8,500 liters of anthrax, but UNSCOM estimates that Saddam Hussein could have produced 25,000 liters. If concentrated into this dry form, this amount would be enough to fill tens upon tens upon tens of thousands of teaspoons. And Saddam Hussein has not verifiably accounted for even one teaspoon-full of this deadly material.

One of the most worrisome things that emerges from the thick intelligence file we have on Iraq's biological weapons is the existence of mobile production facilities used to make biological agents.

Let me take you inside that intelligence file and share with you what we know from eye witness accounts. We have firsthand descriptions of biological weapons factories on wheels and on rails.

The trucks and train cars are easily moved and are designed to evade detection by inspectors. In a matter of months, they can produce a quantity of biological poison equal to the entire amount that Iraq claimed to have produced in the years prior to the Gulf War.

We also have sources who tell us that, since the 1980s, Saddam's regime has been experimenting on human beings to perfect its biological or chemical weapons.

A source said that 1,600 death row prisoners were transferred in 1995 to a special unit for such experiments. An eyewitness saw prisoners tied down to beds, experiments conducted on them, blood oozing around the victim's mouths and autopsies performed to confirm the effects on the prisoners. Saddam Hussein's humanity -- inhumanity has no limits.

My colleagues, we have an obligation to our citizens. We have an obligation to this body to see that our resolutions are complied with. We wrote 1441 not in order to go to war, we wrote 1441 to try to preserve the peace. We wrote 1441 to give Iraq one last chance. Iraq is not so far taking that one last chance.

We must not shrink from whatever is ahead of us. We must not fail in our duty and our responsibility to the citizens of the countries that are represented by this body.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Secretary of State Powell before the Security Council today.

That's our report for tonight.

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We'll see you tomorrow. Good to be back in New York. Good to see you all. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

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