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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown
Look at Past, Future of Conflict in Middle East
Aired February 09, 2003 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening, again. I'm Aaron Brown and this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT from Kuwait.
We are here tonight to take a look at both the past with the invasion more than a decade ago left behind, and to take a look at the future, too, the tremendous buildup of U.S. forces that are now flooding into the region. And between the past and the future, there is today and today in Kuwait we have found apprehension. Not so much about the possibility of war, though that is there, and it is a given, but over what will come after a war, both in the region and across the Middle East. And as the week goes along, and we'll do a whole week of programs from here in Kuwait, we expect that to be an ongoing theme.
But whether we're in Kuwait or in New York, we always begin the same. We begin with the whip. And we do tonight. And the whip begins in Atlanta with Carol Lin at CNN headquarters there.
Carol, a headline, please?
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Aaron, I'll be talking with Joseph Potasnik in New York, a Jewish rabbi with a congregation in the middle of a Muslim community. We are going get his take on what triggered the new terror alert, and how his congregation is protecting itself, Aaron.
BROWN: Carol, thank you. Now to Ken Berra in Australia, where the involvement of the Australians in a potential war with Iraq is being talked about. Jeff Perry is with us tonight.
Jeff, a headline from you?
JEFF PERRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Australia's prime minister John Howard is in Washington ahead of a meeting tomorrow with President George W. Bush. On that agenda, Iraq, North Korea, and the war on terrorism, and like in America, public support for a strike on Iran is less than solid.
BROWN: Jeff, thank you. Back to you shortly. Also, and next, Houston and the investigation into the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Brian Cabell has had the duty all weekend since Friday. So Brian, give us a headline?
BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, new theory is emerging here on the possible cause of the shuttle disaster. Was it possibly some space debris, some space junk? Officials have a lot of questions about that. So far, they don't have any answers. Aaron?
BROWN: Brian, thank you.
Back with all of you shortly. We'll take a quick look at the day's headlines as we get going here from Kuwait. And for that, we go back to Atlanta and Carol Lin -- Carol?
(NEWSBREAK)
BROWN: Carol, thank you. We are about an hour or so from the border with Iraq, though in fact it takes you much longer to get there. There are a series of checkpoints as you go north. And the northern part of the country is about to be sealed off from Kuwaitis. That is where the U.S. military presence, the British are up there, too. So getting from here in Kuwait to the border with Iraq takes some considerable effort, but we were up there yesterday just shortly after our arrival.
And what was an open border a decade ago is now, of course, closed. Long fences, U.N. patrols flying overhead and on jeep, keeping that border secure. Across the border in Baghdad, today is a huge and important day. It is the day when the chief weapons inspectors will continue their meetings, their negotiations, really, with the government of Iraq. Hans Blix says it is five minutes to midnight. And perhaps just perhaps the Iraqis are receiving that message. There's some indications that progress has been made early in this important week of talks, which of course is not to say that the administration is optimistic about it all.
We begin our coverage tonight with CNN's Nic Robertson in the Iraqi capitol.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Looking relaxed and somewhat happy, the two U.N. weapons chiefs, Hans Blix and Mohammed Elbaradei, delivered their account of two days of talks with Iraqi officials.
HANS BLIX, U.N. CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I hope I have seen in those days a beginning of taking these remaining disarmament issues more seriously.
ROBERTSON: No breakthrough concessions, but on the contentious issue of U-2 surveillance flights, a promise to respond soon.
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, IAEA: I hope very much that this will be a positive response because what we have been telling Iraq at this crucial time, at this critical time we need 100 percent Iraqi cooperation.
ROBERTSON: According to Iraq's U.N. point man, time is needed to decide if surveillance flights would be safe. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is being studied and considered by our technical personnel. And the advance and security.
ROBERTSON: At two of Blix and Elbaradei's three technical meetings, documents relating to BX, anthrax and missiles were handed over for assessment.
BLIX: But they are not yet a breakthrough. And there may be -- require more discussions and more explanations. They were welcome, but they are not an answer to it.
ROBERTSON: In meetings with politicians, the two U.N. weapons chiefs stressing the importance if legislation outlawing weapons of mass destruction and the need for Iraq's leaders to send a strong message of cooperation now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let me make it very clear that it is very important that clear guidance from the top leadership to all Iraqi national citizens go with that clear instruction that full cooperation...
ROBERTSON: Iraqi officials are now confident their work and commitment to cooperation can avoid war.
GEN. AMER AL-SAADI, HUSSEIN SCIENTIFIC ADVISER: And we believe it should satisfy the skeptics, and also satisfy the fair minded. And that's he best we can do.
ROBERTSON: But Blix and Elbaradei say they are hopeful that if the Iraqis make good on commitments made this weekend, then the U.N. Security council could give them enough time to continue their work. For now at least, they say, they are cautiously optimistic.
Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Optimism, cautious or otherwise, is hard to find in many other places in this situation, but Russia, Germany , France and China have come up with their own ideas about an effort to avoid a war. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, spent the weekend with the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, no doubt talking about that. Chancellor Schroeder adamantly insists there is no secret plan to send U.N. peacekeepers into Iraq, to support the weapons inspectors, a move that could stop the U.S. cold in its military tracks. The United States would not go in if the U.N. troops are there.
President Putin says what needs to happen now is not a war, but for inspections to -- or rather the inspectors, to carefully dissect the information secretary of State, Colin Powell presented last week before the U.N. Security Council. There is some controversy about that as well, and about Iraq and its attempt to deceive the inspectors.
Kuwait is one of those small Gulf countries. As many of you know that exists and prospers simply because of oil. Kuwaitis grow a little of their won food. They import almost everything. There is little or none non oil related manufacturing. And it goes on in the country. Without oil, Kuwait would be just one more barren spot in the desert.
But there is oil, lots of it. And for a native Kuwaitis, it is the engine that drives the economy, an economy that has made life easy for many and extremely prosperous for some.
12 years ago, it was almost lost.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN (voice-over): It has only been a nation for a little over four decades. 42 years ago, Kuwait won its independence from Britain.
FARAH AL-NAKIB, KUWAIT CTR. FOR STRATEGIC AND FUTURE STUDIES: Over the decade since in this kind of experiment with democracy, Kuwait has had its successes. It's had its failures. There's still a lot of things that need to be done in terms of reform and making things -- you know, further down the path towards democratization, but the important -- what you realize is within that historical context is that Kuwait is still a fledgling democracy.
BROWN: Despite its wealth as one of the world's leading producers of oil, Kuwait is not without contrast. Not far from the center of the city, you're likely to see camels being herded or sheep and goats near busy streets. This, while Kuwait is enjoying a reputation of glamour and big spending in its glistening new shopping malls.
AL-NAKIB: You have strange contradictions, strange contrasts when you go out and you take a look around.
BROWN: Except for the oil, not very many people in the Western world knew much about Kuwait until a dozen years ago. It was then that Saddam Hussein ordered his army to invade. Kuwait, he claimed, was the 19th province of Iraq and he wanted it back.
His army devastated the capital, set fire to more than 700 oil wells. The destruction awesome. And its legacy memorialized in a new museum here, devoted to the Gulf War is the overriding ethic of the country.
Today, as the nation again prepares for a war, the American military has assumed an enormous role in the life of Kuwait. Convoys of men and equipment are everywhere. Nearly 50,000 American troops are here already, more on the way.
For Kuwaitis, the decision to welcome United States forces was a simple one. It is a debt they feel, a debt that still needs to be repaid.
AL-NAKIB: I think there's definitely a strong feeling of gratitude and you know, affection towards the United States because of happened in 1990 and 1991. That was something that we will never forget in our history, because we would not exist today had it not been for the coalition of 1990.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Well, there is lots of talk about how a war may be avoided, talk here in Kuwait, talk at the United Nations, talk around the world. A coup has been talked about. Another option is that Saddam Hussein would have a change of heart and agree to go into exile. No one thinks that is especially likely to happen, but nevertheless, as this countdown to war moves forward, it is an option worth talking about. And we'll do that.
Joining us tonight, Rob Sobhani, who is an adjunct professor of government in International Studies at Georgetown University. It's good to have you with us tonight.
Is it in your view, in the unlikely event that Saddam Hussein were to agree to go to Saudi Arabia or somewhere else in exile, does that end the likelihood, the possibility of war?
ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIV.: I don't think so, Aaron. I think that first of all, Saddam's history doesn't suggest exile. Saddam Hussein sees himself in the broader context of the Arab world as being the leaders of the Arab world. And then beyond the Arab world, he sees himself in the context of being the man who is standing up against the United States.
So it would seem to be very difficult to envision a scenario where Saddam leaves. However, there's no doubt that the -- I'm sorry, go ahead.
BROWN: Well, I was going to say, I couldn't agree more that it is a highly unlikely proposition. But if it were to happen, let's work from that premise for a second, Rob, if it were to happen, does that -- then does everyone here, all the American troops and the rest, go home?
SOBHANI: I don't think so, Aaron, because still as the Secretary of State, Mr. Powell, George Bush himself has said numerous times, this is about the weapons of mass destruction. This is about the liberation of Iraq. And I think there are issues beyond Saddam Hussein that go to the heart of the regime inside Baghdad that is important, not just the exile of Saddam Hussein.
So Saddam's exile may be a first step, but it's certainly not the end of the issue concerning Iraq.
BROWN: Acknowledging that perhaps this is not your particular area of expertise. But let me just throw it out as an idea for a second. If Saddam Hussein were to end up on exile, were he to go to Saudi Arabia for example, do you not think that the political support that exists for a war in the United States would evaporate?
SOBHANI: Well, certainly, there will be pressure on the president, his administration, the allies, to re-think the entire strategy. But once again, I think for the United States, having sent the troops there, it would be an enormous question mark of American capability if at this stage of the game, United States want to back off. And for that reason, I think that the United States is most likely going to find a way, a means to continue this effort, despite a sudden, surprising departure of Saddam Hussein into Saudi Arabia as you suggested at.
BROWN: So what -- really what you're saying, Rob, is that we could talk about the inspectors, we can talk about the U.N., we can talk about all of this, but the dye has been cast and the war is going to happen?
SOBHANI: Well, it seems that after Secretary Powell's presentation to the United States, that we are heading in that direction. The more broader issue, I think, for the United States and for the president as he laid out his case before the State of Union address is this. Iraq poses a danger to its -- to the neighbors, to the United States. And it is a geopolitical issue for the United States. It's a national security issue. And therefore, Saddam, not just be removed, but his entire regime must be removed because it's not just Saddam that we're talking about here.
And that's why the issue of exile, when it comes up, has to be really examined more carefully. After Saddam, there are many, many within his circle, including his two sons Osayi and Odai, who are equally brutal, equally evil, and can equally produce weapons of mass destruction with no hesitation.
BROWN: Rob, thank you. Rob Sobhani joining us today. It's an interesting issue, not just because of the politics of it all, were it to happen. We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you.
SOBHANI: Thanks a lot.
BROWN: Still ahead on this special edition of NEWSNIGHT from Kuwait, targets for terror. Synagogues around the country beefing up security. Just in case after the increase in the terror alert on Friday. And of course, gearing up for war, thousands of U.S. troops are overseas, but are they ready? From Kuwait, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, it's just after 8:00 a.m. in Saudi Arabia, but the holy city of Mecca feels electric. Nearly two million Muslims are gathered in the tent city of Nina to observe the Hajj. The crowd is making the short trek to Mount Arafat. It is the climax of their annual pilgrimage. Now this where the prophet Mohammed delivered his final sermon.
What you might now see is this, very heavy security. Officers were bracing for any demonstrations against a possible U.S. led war in Iraq. Well, the Bush administration claims that intelligence sources said the Muslim pilgrimage might actually trigger terror attacks right here in the United States. That was just one factor cited Friday, when officials raised the national terror alert status to high risk orange.
Another factor was the specific threat against synagogues and Jewish businesses in this country. The FBI put the word out to Jewish leaders across the country, but how do they protect themselves? Well, let's get some answers from Rabbi Joseph Potasnik. He is the president of the New York Board of Rabbis. And he presides over the congregation Mount Sinai in Brooklyn Heights.
Good evening, rabbi. Thanks for being here.
JOSEPH POTASNIK, NY BOARD OF RABBIS: Hi, Carol.
LIN: So how did you take the news when you found out that Jewish symbols, Jewish gathering places might actually be targeted? That was the information the Bush administration was getting?
POTASNIK: Carol, it's a very sad commentary on religious dialogue, that after all of these years, anti Semitism have threatened the Jews within houses of worship. To think that one can go to prayer, one can send a child to a Hebrew school and not feel secure, is really a disgraceful statement. And I find it very, very disheartening.
What I can't understand is why more people don't come forward from the Muslim community and denounce this horrible, horrible kind of sentiment that's been expressed, sometimes from within mosques. So it goes from within a mosque to a sanctuary. We've seen Christians who have been slaughtered in Pakistan. So we should not be talking about anti-Semitism or anti-Christianity in this century, but yet, here we are.
LIN: Rabbi, we're showing right now some videotape that we took on Friday of the heavy security presence. I mean, you know, armed guards with armored plates standing outside a large Jewish synagogue in the city of New York, there in downtown Manhattan. And I'm wondering, do you feel like you've got to take these kinds of security precautions there in Brooklyn Heights at your synagogue?
POTASNIK: Well, I think when we're hearing the level of threats that we are, that we need to have a more sophisticated security system, security that's visible by police standing outside, and security that's not so obvious. But above all, people have to feel more secure, that when they come to a synagogue, they can pray there comfortably without having to feel threatened in any way.
LIN: But your...
POTASNIK: So anything...
LIN: Go ahead.
POTASNIK: ...that can do that, of course, is of necessity.
LIN: But what's interesting about your congregation is you are smack dab in the middle of a large Muslim population. So what is the relationship like these days, especially if you have security presence outside of your congregation?
POTASNIK: Well, it's a plus in that we're not strangers to one another. We shop in many of the same stores. Our kids go to many of the same schools. There is that exchange. So at least, we'd like to feel that we're all part of the same community.
Nevertheless, when you had expressions of hatred manifest itself from the community, we've seen even in our own grouping there, we've even seen our own area of people who express those diatribes. So we're not immune to it just because we consider ourselves neighbors with one another. There have been incidents of anti-Semitism in our area, not far from us. There were - there was an attempt on a synagogue there to deface the door of the synagogue. In Riverdale, there was another attempt, where the perpetrators were apprehended.
So it happens that in Brooklyn when it was done recently, the person whose prevented the act of degradation happened to be a Muslim.
LIN: Yes, and I'm wondering, you know, does the situation that you're describing is very interesting, because when I was in Israel back in April, this is how a lot of the Israelis have to deal with some of their feelings, those who live right next door to Arab communities? One we're friends and now simply do not trust each other. Is that the sense that you have in your neighborhood now?
POTASNIK: Well, I think there is that growing sentiment. And we as members of the clergy constantly try to differentiate between those who are militant Muslims and those who are moderate. But the problem I must tell you, Carol, very honestly is that that voice of moderate Muslim sentiment is barely audible. That's what makes it so difficult for us. We expect friends to come forward.
You recall Billings, Montana, where there was an anti-Semitic incident occurred. The Christian community rallied behind the Jewish community and said if it happens to you, it could happen to us. They put menorahs in all the windows. I remember the late Cardinal O'Connor doing the same thing here in New York, saying we're all Semites.
Now we can easily say to our Arab friends that we are Semites. we're descendants of Abraham. So we should be standing there for one another. And yet, that expression of solidarity has not been seen.
LIN: Thank you very much, Rabbi, for joining us tonight. It's a sad situation indeed when neighbor cannot trust neighbor these days.
POTASNIK: Thank you.
LIN: Thank you.
Well, still ahead, fighting with the U.S. about Iraq, while Europeans are so reluctant to support war.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(NEWSBREAK)
LIN: And now back to Aaron Brown for a special edition of NEWSNIGHT, live from Kuwait City -- Aaron?
BROWN: Carol, thank you.
While the Russians, the Germans, the Chinese, perhaps the French are working out details of a plan, and looking for acceptance to try and ward off the possibility of war, it clearly does not mask the deep rift on the streets between the Europeans and others and the United States, but particularly the Europeans. It is not simply a rift about this war, this moment, but there is something more fundamental going on. At least that's the view of Robert Kagan. Mr. Kagan, who I've known for 15 years, lives in Brussels. He's long written about relationships between the United States and its European allies.
His latest book is called "Paradise of Power." We talked with him the other day in New York, which explains the coat and tie.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: You lay out this argument that the Europeans and the Americans basically see power differently, right? ROBERT KAGAN, AUTHOR, PARADISE AND POWER: That's right. Europeans have moved into a phase in their history where they think that the use of military power is not a legitimate part of international relations. It's partly because within Europe, they've really created a kind of paradise, where peace rules. European nations do not use military force obviously in relations to one another. And I think the whole world can do like that.
But Americans haven't had that experience. And we live in a more dangerous world, I would say.
BROWN: And so, as we apply that to the moment, to Iraq, that explains at least in your view the extraordinary difference in how the two universes see the problem of Saddam Hussein?
KAGAN: That's right. And you know, Europeans first of all, don't feel the threat in the same way that Americans do. They didn't have the experience of September 11. And they don't make the connection between terrorism and weapons of mass destruction that Americans have come to make.
BROWN: But they saw 9/11. It -- I mean, it's not like they didn't know what happened. They don't get it. That some of their citizens didn't die in it. How did they, whether you support the idea of a war with Iraq or not, it's hard to ignore what happened?
KAGAN: All I can tell you is living in Europe...
BROWN: Yes.
KAGAN: ...for the past couple of years, and certainly since September 11, I have great sympathy for what happened to the United States, but they do not imagine that. Europeans often say we live with terrorism for years. And it's true, you know, in Britain, they've had the IRA. In Spain, they've had Eta (ph), in Germany, the Red Army Faction.
But I was talking to some European officials recently. And they said to me, you know, when Europeans think of terrorism, they're still thinking of car bombs, supermarkets being blown up. I think perhaps, you know, we lost 3,000 people in one day. I think perhaps in the whole history of the IRA, there might not have been more than 3,000 casualties.
So Europeans do not -- they still think of the terrorism that they know. And even though they saw September 11, it didn't happen to them. And they don't think of catastrophic terrorism on the scale that we, you know, have gotten used to.
BROWN: Does the United States or does the administration bear any responsibility for how the Europeans are reacting? Does the government make it worse in any sense?
KAGAN: Well, some of the European reaction, I think, is beyond our power to influence. It's just a function of the fact that we are the strongest power in the world. They both resent it to some extent, and also fear it to some extent. But I think it's true that the way the administration handled relations with Europe and to some extent with the whole world, in the early months of the presidency, managed to give off the impression on things like the Kyoto Treaty and the way they handled that, managed to give the impression that the administration was sort of -- and the United States would sort of indifferent to world opinion, and indifferent to European opinion.
So that when 9/11 happened, we didn't have that much in the bank. In fat, we didn't have anything in the bank. And it only -- we paid a price, I think, for some of the early mistakes.
BROWN: Do you think when it all gets settled over the next few weeks, that forget the Germans for a second because that seems to be altogether different matter here, but that the French will sign on? They don't want to be left out, do they? The press don't want to be left out in whatever a post- war Iraq is.
KAGAN: I've been working on the assumption all along that the French would eventually sign up, that they would give it a good college try to try to prevent it. But at the end of the day, as you say, they don't want to be left behind. I'm a little worried about that analysis right now, because I see Chirac really sort of digging his heels in. And I wouldn't rule out entirely the possibility that they just may refuse to go along.
And one thing, you...
BROWN: Would that mean you were wrong?
KAGAN: I -- you know, shocking, shocking as though that may be, yes, I may well be wrong about that. One thing you -- we have to understand is that while -- in a certain sense, France is isolated along with Germany against some of the European governments like Tony Blair's Britain and Asnar's Spain and Berlusconi's Italy, European public opinion in all these countries is right where France is. And so France -- I think the French government believes that they are leading within Europe at the public level, even if the governments are not on their side.
BROWN: It's really nice to see you. We should each other more than every 15 years or so.
KAGAN: Okay. Great.
BROWN: Thanks a lot.
KAGAN: Thank you.
BROWN: Bob Kagan tonight.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Robert Kagan, an interview we taped just before we left for Kuwait on Saturday morning. The sun has come up. It is Monday morning here. We can see and feel the city starting to come alive. Next on this special edition of NEWSNIGHT, too little too late. The inspectors say Iraq may be having a change of heart, maybe, but is this new cooperation from the Iraqis enough to avoid war from the American perspective? A look at that and more, as NEWSNIGHT continues from Kuwait.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: One of the reasons we decided to come to Kuwait this week for a week of programs, it is that it is such a pivotal week here, the talks as reported earlier, going on between the weapons inspectors in Baghdad. This seems to be the showdown week. Friday, the chief U.N. weapons inspectors will submit yet another report to the U.N. Security Council. It is an extraordinarily important report.
You heard earlier in the program the lead inspectors expressing confidence that Iraq is expressing a willingness to cooperate. And they also say that peaceful disarmament to rid Iraq of any weapons of mass destruction may still be possible through the weapons inspection process. U.S. officials, however, are saying that Iraq's gestures, whatever they are, are too little, too late.
President Bush says the apparent progress is not good enough and that now is the time for the U.N. to take a stand.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's a moment of truth for the United Nations. United Nations gets to decide shortly whether or not it is going to be relevant in terms of keeping the peace, whether its words mean anything.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATL. SECURITY ADVISOR: We've set no deadline, the president has set no deadline. Indeed, what the president is saying is that it should be weeks, not months until the United Nations Security Council or the world decides that it is going to resolve this situation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Certainly this isn't the first time we have heard the Bush administration talk about Iraq in this way. It has been very consistent. It continues to attempt to garner more international support in the effort, what it calls a coalition of the willing. One country we haven't heard much noise from, however, is Australia. But behind the scenes, the Australian government, at least, has been backing the United States. Whether that's true on the streets or not, we'll know more in a moment.
Tomorrow, the president meets in Washington with the Australian prime minister, John Howard. Reporter Geof Parry of Australia's channel 7 joins us from Canberra, the capitol -- Jeff?
GEOF PARRY, CHANNEL 7 POL. CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Aaron. Yes, very important meeting for John Howard tomorrow. It's been -- he's in Washington at the invitation of George W. Bush. And they'll be discussing the very, very important issue of Iraq. Also, North Korea and where they fit into the plans. And generally, the war on terrorism. Both countries have something in common, as you'd appreciate with your September 11 and our October 12 bombing of a night club in Bali, a very popular place with Australian tourists and an event which cost 88 Australian lives.
BROWN: Geof, how much of the support for the Iraqi operation stems from the terrorist attack in Bali?
PERRY: Well, not -- there's been no direct link between the Bali explosion and Iraq. And that's one of the questions. People are asking are why Australian troops being sent to that theater, not yet committed to war, insisted our prime minister, but certainly being sent to that theater for a possible strike against Iraq. So not directly linked, but Australians certainly feel that we are part of the war on terrorism.
Now John Howard is one of the big boosters for George W. Bush and his approach to Iraq. He's been under quite considerable pressure here in Australia, where he is refusing to admit or to say that our troops are being committed to war, but he's also refusing to say that they will -- in fact he's suggesting that they could be withdrawn if there is a strike on Iraq without United Nations sanctions.
So he's in a position where he's one of the strongest supporters, but public support is quite mixed. The -- a poll done just very recently found that the majority of Australians, about 65 percent, were opposed to a strike on Iraq by the U.S., a unilateral strike by the U.S. joined by Australia. But that figure turned around to 65 percent in favor of a strike on Iraq, if the United Nations sanctioned such a move. And after his meeting tomorrow with George Bush, John Howard will be heading off to New York for a meeting with Kofi Annan, where he will be urging them to take particularly strong action against Iraq. And Aaron, we have a sign here in Australia called fair dinkem (ph). And it means get serious, get truthful. And when the prime minister was asked what could Saddam Hussein and Iraq do to avert a war, the prime minister's response was "get fair dinkem (ph) about cooperating with the U.N. inspectors.
BROWN: Well, any language and in any idiom, it better happen pretty quick because everybody seems to be impatient. Geof, thanks a lot. Geof Parry from the Australian capitol tonight.
And still ahead on the program from Kuwait, we'll take a look at the major domestic story in the United States of the day pieces of the Columbia returned to the Kennedy Space Center, the forensics of that underway, the rebuilding process begins. Will the pieces left give NASA the answer to what went wrong? From Kuwait, this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Monday morning here in Kuwait, approaching 7:00 in the morning. Back home in the United States, investigators looking into what caused the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster. Do today have a few additional clues to work with. How significant? It's hard to say. Recovery workers trudging through some of the woods in East Texas came across a piece of a charred hatch door today. Authorities there say the hatch appears to be for the most part intact.
And there are several other developments coming out of NASA. CNN's Brian Cabell has been working the story all weekend. He joins us from the Johnson Space Center in Houston.
Brian, good day to you.
BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening to you, Aaron. The accident investigation board here in Houston is back in town after having the weekend off. And in the days and weeks ahead, they are going to be very busy traveling and working.
One thing in particular that they're going to be looking at here over the next several days is an observation made by an Air Force tracking station, 24 hours into the launch. What the tracking station saw was an object moving away from the shuttle. They don't know what that object was. It may have been a piece of space debris or junk. It may have been a piece of the shuttle coming off. It may have simply been a chunk of ice. They simply don't know at this point.
But what makes that particularly intriguing is that back in 1997, an independent engineering study concluded that the chances of a piece of debris colliding with the shuttle and causing catastrophic damage failure of the shuttle was about one in 200. And that, at that time, was ruled an acceptable risk by NASA.
The board, of course, also interested in the debris that continues to be collected as you indicated in both Texas and Louisiana. A wing part they still have not identified as either being from the left wing or the right wing, but that is very interesting to them. That was found in the Dallas/Fort Worth area just a couple of days ago.
Other debris, they -- we're told is up to 20 feet long. And as you indicated, a wheel well door also has been found. They think it's a wheel well door. All of this going through the Kennedy Space Center. Some of it already in process. The rest will be going in the days and weeks ahead. There, they will try to reassemble the shuttle. And that will be a difficult task, according to the NASA administrator, Sean O'Keefe.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEAN O'KEEFE: Well, how much we're actually going to be able to reconstruct is something we'll know once we get all the pieces together, but there's certainly no way we're going to be able reconstruct it. The pieces are just absolutely mangled.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CABELL: The accident investigation board, as I say, is now back in town. Over the next couple of days, they will be talking to NASA staffers and officials. They will then be going to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. They will be going to the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, and also to a production facility in Louisiana.
So Aaron, as I say, they have a very busy next several days ahead of them and they have a lot of questions before them as well -- Aaron?
BROWN: Let me throw you one quick question, and if you can answer it, do. If you not, walk away from it. Why is it so difficult to identify which side of the shuttle this large wing came from or wing piece came from?
CABELL: That's a question we've been asking here. And frankly, we don't know. And perhaps they do know, they simply aren't telling us that at this point. But we're told that the tiles are individualized. So they should be able to...
BROWN: Right.
CABELL: ...identify which wing. But so far, they have not told us which side. We expect to get that answer, frankly, in the next day or two. BROWN: Brian, thank you. Brian Cabell in Houston reporting on the shuttle tragedy now a week old, as we continue from Kuwait, waiting for war. And that is absolutely the mood in this country. American troops by the thousands, standing by, moving into the region. We saw them all day yesterday.
One question on the table, are they ready? How are they staying ready? We'll deal with that and more as NEWSNIGHT continues from Kuwait.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, back in Kuwait, the United States has deployed about 113,000 troops to the entire region. And a good many of them are here in the north part of Iraq, of Kuwait rather, a part of the country that'll be virtually sealed off in the next day or two for Kuwaitis. More troops arriving daily. The British and the Australians, as we've talked about, are sending their own contingent to the region.
Not that we expect it to happen, of course, but if war were to break out tomorrow, would the United States and its partners have enough might in the region today to take on Iraq? Not that we expect it to happen tomorrow.
CNN military analyst retired Air Force General Don Shepperd is here tonight to give us a look at the state of play here in early February. Good evening to you. My sense is, of course, if you had to go, the forces could go, but they'd like another three weeks or so to get everything in place.
DON SHEPPERD, MAJ. GEN., U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Yes, you're right on the mark, Aaron. Not only do you want the time to get the forces in place, but we got a lot of forces en route right now to the northern area, to Turkey and as well as into Kuwait. So you want to get these people in. You want to get them trained. You want to get them up on the step, and all of that takes time.
And of course, you have to react to what the enemy does, but if we work on our schedule, we would like more time, probably the first part of March, even in the middle of March, as the time that we would like.
BROWN: Don, let's look at a couple of different forms there. You've got a lot of carrier and carrier groups coming into the region. How close is the air power component of a possible war to being in place?
SHEPPERD: That's the good news about air power and the flexibility of air power from all services: Navy, Air Force, Marines and Army. It can be ready to go on a moment's notice, if you will. Carriers can strike from the Mediterranean, from the Red Sea, from the Persian Gulf, from the Arabian Sea. We've got a lot of land based air in Turkey and also in throughout the Gulf.
And so that can go any time. But you want to coordinate an assault from all services. And they have to be in place. They have to be oiled, fed, ready, exercised, and that's going to take some more time, Aaron.
BROWN: We were making our way to the northern part of Kuwait to the northern border, the part that borders Iraq. And we saw convoy after convoy of Marines, some Navy Seabees (ph) coming in, that sort of thing. On the ground, what percentage as best you can tell, of the forces are in place?
SHEPPERD: Well, my guess is probably half of the forces are in place right now that you would really want to do. And what you're seeing there, Aaron, is a major logistical miracle. The idea of not just getting troops over there, but getting their equipment there, getting the equipment out of storage, ready to go and then being able to move it forward with the gas and oil and supplies that you need, the ammunition. Only the United States leading a coalition can do this type of thing. We are unique in our capability to move forces around the world and do the things you're seeing, Aaron.
BROWN: Let me ask what I think of as a practical question, but that it may give us some sense of timing in all of this. Is there a danger that troops left to sit out there in these makeshift bases out in the middle of the desert get stale, that morale starts to suffer, that they are -- you get them jacked up and ready to go, and you need to do something with them?
SHEPPERD: Absolutely. The thing that you have to do as a commander, when you get troops on the ground or at a base or on a ship is you want to get them peaked and ready, practicing their individual skills. But later on, as you approach combat, you work the war plans and brief them on rules of engagement and the plans themselves. But they can only stay at that high level for a certain period of time.
Everybody's expecting this to be around the end of February, first of March, middle of March. And then if it goes into April, and May, and June, not only does it get hot, but the people fall off the peak. And it gets very tough. You have to rotate the troops out if that happens, Aaron.
BROWN; Thank you, Don Shepperd, General Don Shepperd with us tonight. We appreciate your insights. Thank you.
We were, as you mentioned, out in the northern oil fields yesterday at that point where the Iraqis invaded a dozen years ago. And then as they left, blew up the oil wells, taken a decade to repair the damage there. We're report on that this week. We'll also look at the military build up and the preparations here in Kuwait. But it's not all that. We're going to spend some time talking to Kuwaitis, taking a look at Kuwaiti public opinion. A war is coming. They are sure of that. They are less sure that they are pleased. They are deeply worried about what comes after. All that, and much more in our week in Kuwait. Until then, I'm Aaron Brown. And we'll see you tomorrow night, 10:00 Eastern time. Until then, good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.
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Aired February 09, 2003 - 22:00 ET
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AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening, again. I'm Aaron Brown and this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT from Kuwait.
We are here tonight to take a look at both the past with the invasion more than a decade ago left behind, and to take a look at the future, too, the tremendous buildup of U.S. forces that are now flooding into the region. And between the past and the future, there is today and today in Kuwait we have found apprehension. Not so much about the possibility of war, though that is there, and it is a given, but over what will come after a war, both in the region and across the Middle East. And as the week goes along, and we'll do a whole week of programs from here in Kuwait, we expect that to be an ongoing theme.
But whether we're in Kuwait or in New York, we always begin the same. We begin with the whip. And we do tonight. And the whip begins in Atlanta with Carol Lin at CNN headquarters there.
Carol, a headline, please?
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Aaron, I'll be talking with Joseph Potasnik in New York, a Jewish rabbi with a congregation in the middle of a Muslim community. We are going get his take on what triggered the new terror alert, and how his congregation is protecting itself, Aaron.
BROWN: Carol, thank you. Now to Ken Berra in Australia, where the involvement of the Australians in a potential war with Iraq is being talked about. Jeff Perry is with us tonight.
Jeff, a headline from you?
JEFF PERRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Australia's prime minister John Howard is in Washington ahead of a meeting tomorrow with President George W. Bush. On that agenda, Iraq, North Korea, and the war on terrorism, and like in America, public support for a strike on Iran is less than solid.
BROWN: Jeff, thank you. Back to you shortly. Also, and next, Houston and the investigation into the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Brian Cabell has had the duty all weekend since Friday. So Brian, give us a headline?
BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, new theory is emerging here on the possible cause of the shuttle disaster. Was it possibly some space debris, some space junk? Officials have a lot of questions about that. So far, they don't have any answers. Aaron?
BROWN: Brian, thank you.
Back with all of you shortly. We'll take a quick look at the day's headlines as we get going here from Kuwait. And for that, we go back to Atlanta and Carol Lin -- Carol?
(NEWSBREAK)
BROWN: Carol, thank you. We are about an hour or so from the border with Iraq, though in fact it takes you much longer to get there. There are a series of checkpoints as you go north. And the northern part of the country is about to be sealed off from Kuwaitis. That is where the U.S. military presence, the British are up there, too. So getting from here in Kuwait to the border with Iraq takes some considerable effort, but we were up there yesterday just shortly after our arrival.
And what was an open border a decade ago is now, of course, closed. Long fences, U.N. patrols flying overhead and on jeep, keeping that border secure. Across the border in Baghdad, today is a huge and important day. It is the day when the chief weapons inspectors will continue their meetings, their negotiations, really, with the government of Iraq. Hans Blix says it is five minutes to midnight. And perhaps just perhaps the Iraqis are receiving that message. There's some indications that progress has been made early in this important week of talks, which of course is not to say that the administration is optimistic about it all.
We begin our coverage tonight with CNN's Nic Robertson in the Iraqi capitol.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Looking relaxed and somewhat happy, the two U.N. weapons chiefs, Hans Blix and Mohammed Elbaradei, delivered their account of two days of talks with Iraqi officials.
HANS BLIX, U.N. CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I hope I have seen in those days a beginning of taking these remaining disarmament issues more seriously.
ROBERTSON: No breakthrough concessions, but on the contentious issue of U-2 surveillance flights, a promise to respond soon.
MOHAMED ELBARADEI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, IAEA: I hope very much that this will be a positive response because what we have been telling Iraq at this crucial time, at this critical time we need 100 percent Iraqi cooperation.
ROBERTSON: According to Iraq's U.N. point man, time is needed to decide if surveillance flights would be safe. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is being studied and considered by our technical personnel. And the advance and security.
ROBERTSON: At two of Blix and Elbaradei's three technical meetings, documents relating to BX, anthrax and missiles were handed over for assessment.
BLIX: But they are not yet a breakthrough. And there may be -- require more discussions and more explanations. They were welcome, but they are not an answer to it.
ROBERTSON: In meetings with politicians, the two U.N. weapons chiefs stressing the importance if legislation outlawing weapons of mass destruction and the need for Iraq's leaders to send a strong message of cooperation now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let me make it very clear that it is very important that clear guidance from the top leadership to all Iraqi national citizens go with that clear instruction that full cooperation...
ROBERTSON: Iraqi officials are now confident their work and commitment to cooperation can avoid war.
GEN. AMER AL-SAADI, HUSSEIN SCIENTIFIC ADVISER: And we believe it should satisfy the skeptics, and also satisfy the fair minded. And that's he best we can do.
ROBERTSON: But Blix and Elbaradei say they are hopeful that if the Iraqis make good on commitments made this weekend, then the U.N. Security council could give them enough time to continue their work. For now at least, they say, they are cautiously optimistic.
Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Optimism, cautious or otherwise, is hard to find in many other places in this situation, but Russia, Germany , France and China have come up with their own ideas about an effort to avoid a war. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, spent the weekend with the German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, no doubt talking about that. Chancellor Schroeder adamantly insists there is no secret plan to send U.N. peacekeepers into Iraq, to support the weapons inspectors, a move that could stop the U.S. cold in its military tracks. The United States would not go in if the U.N. troops are there.
President Putin says what needs to happen now is not a war, but for inspections to -- or rather the inspectors, to carefully dissect the information secretary of State, Colin Powell presented last week before the U.N. Security Council. There is some controversy about that as well, and about Iraq and its attempt to deceive the inspectors.
Kuwait is one of those small Gulf countries. As many of you know that exists and prospers simply because of oil. Kuwaitis grow a little of their won food. They import almost everything. There is little or none non oil related manufacturing. And it goes on in the country. Without oil, Kuwait would be just one more barren spot in the desert.
But there is oil, lots of it. And for a native Kuwaitis, it is the engine that drives the economy, an economy that has made life easy for many and extremely prosperous for some.
12 years ago, it was almost lost.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN (voice-over): It has only been a nation for a little over four decades. 42 years ago, Kuwait won its independence from Britain.
FARAH AL-NAKIB, KUWAIT CTR. FOR STRATEGIC AND FUTURE STUDIES: Over the decade since in this kind of experiment with democracy, Kuwait has had its successes. It's had its failures. There's still a lot of things that need to be done in terms of reform and making things -- you know, further down the path towards democratization, but the important -- what you realize is within that historical context is that Kuwait is still a fledgling democracy.
BROWN: Despite its wealth as one of the world's leading producers of oil, Kuwait is not without contrast. Not far from the center of the city, you're likely to see camels being herded or sheep and goats near busy streets. This, while Kuwait is enjoying a reputation of glamour and big spending in its glistening new shopping malls.
AL-NAKIB: You have strange contradictions, strange contrasts when you go out and you take a look around.
BROWN: Except for the oil, not very many people in the Western world knew much about Kuwait until a dozen years ago. It was then that Saddam Hussein ordered his army to invade. Kuwait, he claimed, was the 19th province of Iraq and he wanted it back.
His army devastated the capital, set fire to more than 700 oil wells. The destruction awesome. And its legacy memorialized in a new museum here, devoted to the Gulf War is the overriding ethic of the country.
Today, as the nation again prepares for a war, the American military has assumed an enormous role in the life of Kuwait. Convoys of men and equipment are everywhere. Nearly 50,000 American troops are here already, more on the way.
For Kuwaitis, the decision to welcome United States forces was a simple one. It is a debt they feel, a debt that still needs to be repaid.
AL-NAKIB: I think there's definitely a strong feeling of gratitude and you know, affection towards the United States because of happened in 1990 and 1991. That was something that we will never forget in our history, because we would not exist today had it not been for the coalition of 1990.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Well, there is lots of talk about how a war may be avoided, talk here in Kuwait, talk at the United Nations, talk around the world. A coup has been talked about. Another option is that Saddam Hussein would have a change of heart and agree to go into exile. No one thinks that is especially likely to happen, but nevertheless, as this countdown to war moves forward, it is an option worth talking about. And we'll do that.
Joining us tonight, Rob Sobhani, who is an adjunct professor of government in International Studies at Georgetown University. It's good to have you with us tonight.
Is it in your view, in the unlikely event that Saddam Hussein were to agree to go to Saudi Arabia or somewhere else in exile, does that end the likelihood, the possibility of war?
ROB SOBHANI, GEORGETOWN UNIV.: I don't think so, Aaron. I think that first of all, Saddam's history doesn't suggest exile. Saddam Hussein sees himself in the broader context of the Arab world as being the leaders of the Arab world. And then beyond the Arab world, he sees himself in the context of being the man who is standing up against the United States.
So it would seem to be very difficult to envision a scenario where Saddam leaves. However, there's no doubt that the -- I'm sorry, go ahead.
BROWN: Well, I was going to say, I couldn't agree more that it is a highly unlikely proposition. But if it were to happen, let's work from that premise for a second, Rob, if it were to happen, does that -- then does everyone here, all the American troops and the rest, go home?
SOBHANI: I don't think so, Aaron, because still as the Secretary of State, Mr. Powell, George Bush himself has said numerous times, this is about the weapons of mass destruction. This is about the liberation of Iraq. And I think there are issues beyond Saddam Hussein that go to the heart of the regime inside Baghdad that is important, not just the exile of Saddam Hussein.
So Saddam's exile may be a first step, but it's certainly not the end of the issue concerning Iraq.
BROWN: Acknowledging that perhaps this is not your particular area of expertise. But let me just throw it out as an idea for a second. If Saddam Hussein were to end up on exile, were he to go to Saudi Arabia for example, do you not think that the political support that exists for a war in the United States would evaporate?
SOBHANI: Well, certainly, there will be pressure on the president, his administration, the allies, to re-think the entire strategy. But once again, I think for the United States, having sent the troops there, it would be an enormous question mark of American capability if at this stage of the game, United States want to back off. And for that reason, I think that the United States is most likely going to find a way, a means to continue this effort, despite a sudden, surprising departure of Saddam Hussein into Saudi Arabia as you suggested at.
BROWN: So what -- really what you're saying, Rob, is that we could talk about the inspectors, we can talk about the U.N., we can talk about all of this, but the dye has been cast and the war is going to happen?
SOBHANI: Well, it seems that after Secretary Powell's presentation to the United States, that we are heading in that direction. The more broader issue, I think, for the United States and for the president as he laid out his case before the State of Union address is this. Iraq poses a danger to its -- to the neighbors, to the United States. And it is a geopolitical issue for the United States. It's a national security issue. And therefore, Saddam, not just be removed, but his entire regime must be removed because it's not just Saddam that we're talking about here.
And that's why the issue of exile, when it comes up, has to be really examined more carefully. After Saddam, there are many, many within his circle, including his two sons Osayi and Odai, who are equally brutal, equally evil, and can equally produce weapons of mass destruction with no hesitation.
BROWN: Rob, thank you. Rob Sobhani joining us today. It's an interesting issue, not just because of the politics of it all, were it to happen. We appreciate your time tonight. Thank you.
SOBHANI: Thanks a lot.
BROWN: Still ahead on this special edition of NEWSNIGHT from Kuwait, targets for terror. Synagogues around the country beefing up security. Just in case after the increase in the terror alert on Friday. And of course, gearing up for war, thousands of U.S. troops are overseas, but are they ready? From Kuwait, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, it's just after 8:00 a.m. in Saudi Arabia, but the holy city of Mecca feels electric. Nearly two million Muslims are gathered in the tent city of Nina to observe the Hajj. The crowd is making the short trek to Mount Arafat. It is the climax of their annual pilgrimage. Now this where the prophet Mohammed delivered his final sermon.
What you might now see is this, very heavy security. Officers were bracing for any demonstrations against a possible U.S. led war in Iraq. Well, the Bush administration claims that intelligence sources said the Muslim pilgrimage might actually trigger terror attacks right here in the United States. That was just one factor cited Friday, when officials raised the national terror alert status to high risk orange.
Another factor was the specific threat against synagogues and Jewish businesses in this country. The FBI put the word out to Jewish leaders across the country, but how do they protect themselves? Well, let's get some answers from Rabbi Joseph Potasnik. He is the president of the New York Board of Rabbis. And he presides over the congregation Mount Sinai in Brooklyn Heights.
Good evening, rabbi. Thanks for being here.
JOSEPH POTASNIK, NY BOARD OF RABBIS: Hi, Carol.
LIN: So how did you take the news when you found out that Jewish symbols, Jewish gathering places might actually be targeted? That was the information the Bush administration was getting?
POTASNIK: Carol, it's a very sad commentary on religious dialogue, that after all of these years, anti Semitism have threatened the Jews within houses of worship. To think that one can go to prayer, one can send a child to a Hebrew school and not feel secure, is really a disgraceful statement. And I find it very, very disheartening.
What I can't understand is why more people don't come forward from the Muslim community and denounce this horrible, horrible kind of sentiment that's been expressed, sometimes from within mosques. So it goes from within a mosque to a sanctuary. We've seen Christians who have been slaughtered in Pakistan. So we should not be talking about anti-Semitism or anti-Christianity in this century, but yet, here we are.
LIN: Rabbi, we're showing right now some videotape that we took on Friday of the heavy security presence. I mean, you know, armed guards with armored plates standing outside a large Jewish synagogue in the city of New York, there in downtown Manhattan. And I'm wondering, do you feel like you've got to take these kinds of security precautions there in Brooklyn Heights at your synagogue?
POTASNIK: Well, I think when we're hearing the level of threats that we are, that we need to have a more sophisticated security system, security that's visible by police standing outside, and security that's not so obvious. But above all, people have to feel more secure, that when they come to a synagogue, they can pray there comfortably without having to feel threatened in any way.
LIN: But your...
POTASNIK: So anything...
LIN: Go ahead.
POTASNIK: ...that can do that, of course, is of necessity.
LIN: But what's interesting about your congregation is you are smack dab in the middle of a large Muslim population. So what is the relationship like these days, especially if you have security presence outside of your congregation?
POTASNIK: Well, it's a plus in that we're not strangers to one another. We shop in many of the same stores. Our kids go to many of the same schools. There is that exchange. So at least, we'd like to feel that we're all part of the same community.
Nevertheless, when you had expressions of hatred manifest itself from the community, we've seen even in our own grouping there, we've even seen our own area of people who express those diatribes. So we're not immune to it just because we consider ourselves neighbors with one another. There have been incidents of anti-Semitism in our area, not far from us. There were - there was an attempt on a synagogue there to deface the door of the synagogue. In Riverdale, there was another attempt, where the perpetrators were apprehended.
So it happens that in Brooklyn when it was done recently, the person whose prevented the act of degradation happened to be a Muslim.
LIN: Yes, and I'm wondering, you know, does the situation that you're describing is very interesting, because when I was in Israel back in April, this is how a lot of the Israelis have to deal with some of their feelings, those who live right next door to Arab communities? One we're friends and now simply do not trust each other. Is that the sense that you have in your neighborhood now?
POTASNIK: Well, I think there is that growing sentiment. And we as members of the clergy constantly try to differentiate between those who are militant Muslims and those who are moderate. But the problem I must tell you, Carol, very honestly is that that voice of moderate Muslim sentiment is barely audible. That's what makes it so difficult for us. We expect friends to come forward.
You recall Billings, Montana, where there was an anti-Semitic incident occurred. The Christian community rallied behind the Jewish community and said if it happens to you, it could happen to us. They put menorahs in all the windows. I remember the late Cardinal O'Connor doing the same thing here in New York, saying we're all Semites.
Now we can easily say to our Arab friends that we are Semites. we're descendants of Abraham. So we should be standing there for one another. And yet, that expression of solidarity has not been seen.
LIN: Thank you very much, Rabbi, for joining us tonight. It's a sad situation indeed when neighbor cannot trust neighbor these days.
POTASNIK: Thank you.
LIN: Thank you.
Well, still ahead, fighting with the U.S. about Iraq, while Europeans are so reluctant to support war.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(NEWSBREAK)
LIN: And now back to Aaron Brown for a special edition of NEWSNIGHT, live from Kuwait City -- Aaron?
BROWN: Carol, thank you.
While the Russians, the Germans, the Chinese, perhaps the French are working out details of a plan, and looking for acceptance to try and ward off the possibility of war, it clearly does not mask the deep rift on the streets between the Europeans and others and the United States, but particularly the Europeans. It is not simply a rift about this war, this moment, but there is something more fundamental going on. At least that's the view of Robert Kagan. Mr. Kagan, who I've known for 15 years, lives in Brussels. He's long written about relationships between the United States and its European allies.
His latest book is called "Paradise of Power." We talked with him the other day in New York, which explains the coat and tie.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: You lay out this argument that the Europeans and the Americans basically see power differently, right? ROBERT KAGAN, AUTHOR, PARADISE AND POWER: That's right. Europeans have moved into a phase in their history where they think that the use of military power is not a legitimate part of international relations. It's partly because within Europe, they've really created a kind of paradise, where peace rules. European nations do not use military force obviously in relations to one another. And I think the whole world can do like that.
But Americans haven't had that experience. And we live in a more dangerous world, I would say.
BROWN: And so, as we apply that to the moment, to Iraq, that explains at least in your view the extraordinary difference in how the two universes see the problem of Saddam Hussein?
KAGAN: That's right. And you know, Europeans first of all, don't feel the threat in the same way that Americans do. They didn't have the experience of September 11. And they don't make the connection between terrorism and weapons of mass destruction that Americans have come to make.
BROWN: But they saw 9/11. It -- I mean, it's not like they didn't know what happened. They don't get it. That some of their citizens didn't die in it. How did they, whether you support the idea of a war with Iraq or not, it's hard to ignore what happened?
KAGAN: All I can tell you is living in Europe...
BROWN: Yes.
KAGAN: ...for the past couple of years, and certainly since September 11, I have great sympathy for what happened to the United States, but they do not imagine that. Europeans often say we live with terrorism for years. And it's true, you know, in Britain, they've had the IRA. In Spain, they've had Eta (ph), in Germany, the Red Army Faction.
But I was talking to some European officials recently. And they said to me, you know, when Europeans think of terrorism, they're still thinking of car bombs, supermarkets being blown up. I think perhaps, you know, we lost 3,000 people in one day. I think perhaps in the whole history of the IRA, there might not have been more than 3,000 casualties.
So Europeans do not -- they still think of the terrorism that they know. And even though they saw September 11, it didn't happen to them. And they don't think of catastrophic terrorism on the scale that we, you know, have gotten used to.
BROWN: Does the United States or does the administration bear any responsibility for how the Europeans are reacting? Does the government make it worse in any sense?
KAGAN: Well, some of the European reaction, I think, is beyond our power to influence. It's just a function of the fact that we are the strongest power in the world. They both resent it to some extent, and also fear it to some extent. But I think it's true that the way the administration handled relations with Europe and to some extent with the whole world, in the early months of the presidency, managed to give off the impression on things like the Kyoto Treaty and the way they handled that, managed to give the impression that the administration was sort of -- and the United States would sort of indifferent to world opinion, and indifferent to European opinion.
So that when 9/11 happened, we didn't have that much in the bank. In fat, we didn't have anything in the bank. And it only -- we paid a price, I think, for some of the early mistakes.
BROWN: Do you think when it all gets settled over the next few weeks, that forget the Germans for a second because that seems to be altogether different matter here, but that the French will sign on? They don't want to be left out, do they? The press don't want to be left out in whatever a post- war Iraq is.
KAGAN: I've been working on the assumption all along that the French would eventually sign up, that they would give it a good college try to try to prevent it. But at the end of the day, as you say, they don't want to be left behind. I'm a little worried about that analysis right now, because I see Chirac really sort of digging his heels in. And I wouldn't rule out entirely the possibility that they just may refuse to go along.
And one thing, you...
BROWN: Would that mean you were wrong?
KAGAN: I -- you know, shocking, shocking as though that may be, yes, I may well be wrong about that. One thing you -- we have to understand is that while -- in a certain sense, France is isolated along with Germany against some of the European governments like Tony Blair's Britain and Asnar's Spain and Berlusconi's Italy, European public opinion in all these countries is right where France is. And so France -- I think the French government believes that they are leading within Europe at the public level, even if the governments are not on their side.
BROWN: It's really nice to see you. We should each other more than every 15 years or so.
KAGAN: Okay. Great.
BROWN: Thanks a lot.
KAGAN: Thank you.
BROWN: Bob Kagan tonight.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Robert Kagan, an interview we taped just before we left for Kuwait on Saturday morning. The sun has come up. It is Monday morning here. We can see and feel the city starting to come alive. Next on this special edition of NEWSNIGHT, too little too late. The inspectors say Iraq may be having a change of heart, maybe, but is this new cooperation from the Iraqis enough to avoid war from the American perspective? A look at that and more, as NEWSNIGHT continues from Kuwait.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: One of the reasons we decided to come to Kuwait this week for a week of programs, it is that it is such a pivotal week here, the talks as reported earlier, going on between the weapons inspectors in Baghdad. This seems to be the showdown week. Friday, the chief U.N. weapons inspectors will submit yet another report to the U.N. Security Council. It is an extraordinarily important report.
You heard earlier in the program the lead inspectors expressing confidence that Iraq is expressing a willingness to cooperate. And they also say that peaceful disarmament to rid Iraq of any weapons of mass destruction may still be possible through the weapons inspection process. U.S. officials, however, are saying that Iraq's gestures, whatever they are, are too little, too late.
President Bush says the apparent progress is not good enough and that now is the time for the U.N. to take a stand.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's a moment of truth for the United Nations. United Nations gets to decide shortly whether or not it is going to be relevant in terms of keeping the peace, whether its words mean anything.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATL. SECURITY ADVISOR: We've set no deadline, the president has set no deadline. Indeed, what the president is saying is that it should be weeks, not months until the United Nations Security Council or the world decides that it is going to resolve this situation.
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BROWN: Certainly this isn't the first time we have heard the Bush administration talk about Iraq in this way. It has been very consistent. It continues to attempt to garner more international support in the effort, what it calls a coalition of the willing. One country we haven't heard much noise from, however, is Australia. But behind the scenes, the Australian government, at least, has been backing the United States. Whether that's true on the streets or not, we'll know more in a moment.
Tomorrow, the president meets in Washington with the Australian prime minister, John Howard. Reporter Geof Parry of Australia's channel 7 joins us from Canberra, the capitol -- Jeff?
GEOF PARRY, CHANNEL 7 POL. CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Aaron. Yes, very important meeting for John Howard tomorrow. It's been -- he's in Washington at the invitation of George W. Bush. And they'll be discussing the very, very important issue of Iraq. Also, North Korea and where they fit into the plans. And generally, the war on terrorism. Both countries have something in common, as you'd appreciate with your September 11 and our October 12 bombing of a night club in Bali, a very popular place with Australian tourists and an event which cost 88 Australian lives.
BROWN: Geof, how much of the support for the Iraqi operation stems from the terrorist attack in Bali?
PERRY: Well, not -- there's been no direct link between the Bali explosion and Iraq. And that's one of the questions. People are asking are why Australian troops being sent to that theater, not yet committed to war, insisted our prime minister, but certainly being sent to that theater for a possible strike against Iraq. So not directly linked, but Australians certainly feel that we are part of the war on terrorism.
Now John Howard is one of the big boosters for George W. Bush and his approach to Iraq. He's been under quite considerable pressure here in Australia, where he is refusing to admit or to say that our troops are being committed to war, but he's also refusing to say that they will -- in fact he's suggesting that they could be withdrawn if there is a strike on Iraq without United Nations sanctions.
So he's in a position where he's one of the strongest supporters, but public support is quite mixed. The -- a poll done just very recently found that the majority of Australians, about 65 percent, were opposed to a strike on Iraq by the U.S., a unilateral strike by the U.S. joined by Australia. But that figure turned around to 65 percent in favor of a strike on Iraq, if the United Nations sanctioned such a move. And after his meeting tomorrow with George Bush, John Howard will be heading off to New York for a meeting with Kofi Annan, where he will be urging them to take particularly strong action against Iraq. And Aaron, we have a sign here in Australia called fair dinkem (ph). And it means get serious, get truthful. And when the prime minister was asked what could Saddam Hussein and Iraq do to avert a war, the prime minister's response was "get fair dinkem (ph) about cooperating with the U.N. inspectors.
BROWN: Well, any language and in any idiom, it better happen pretty quick because everybody seems to be impatient. Geof, thanks a lot. Geof Parry from the Australian capitol tonight.
And still ahead on the program from Kuwait, we'll take a look at the major domestic story in the United States of the day pieces of the Columbia returned to the Kennedy Space Center, the forensics of that underway, the rebuilding process begins. Will the pieces left give NASA the answer to what went wrong? From Kuwait, this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT.
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BROWN: Monday morning here in Kuwait, approaching 7:00 in the morning. Back home in the United States, investigators looking into what caused the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster. Do today have a few additional clues to work with. How significant? It's hard to say. Recovery workers trudging through some of the woods in East Texas came across a piece of a charred hatch door today. Authorities there say the hatch appears to be for the most part intact.
And there are several other developments coming out of NASA. CNN's Brian Cabell has been working the story all weekend. He joins us from the Johnson Space Center in Houston.
Brian, good day to you.
BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good evening to you, Aaron. The accident investigation board here in Houston is back in town after having the weekend off. And in the days and weeks ahead, they are going to be very busy traveling and working.
One thing in particular that they're going to be looking at here over the next several days is an observation made by an Air Force tracking station, 24 hours into the launch. What the tracking station saw was an object moving away from the shuttle. They don't know what that object was. It may have been a piece of space debris or junk. It may have been a piece of the shuttle coming off. It may have simply been a chunk of ice. They simply don't know at this point.
But what makes that particularly intriguing is that back in 1997, an independent engineering study concluded that the chances of a piece of debris colliding with the shuttle and causing catastrophic damage failure of the shuttle was about one in 200. And that, at that time, was ruled an acceptable risk by NASA.
The board, of course, also interested in the debris that continues to be collected as you indicated in both Texas and Louisiana. A wing part they still have not identified as either being from the left wing or the right wing, but that is very interesting to them. That was found in the Dallas/Fort Worth area just a couple of days ago.
Other debris, they -- we're told is up to 20 feet long. And as you indicated, a wheel well door also has been found. They think it's a wheel well door. All of this going through the Kennedy Space Center. Some of it already in process. The rest will be going in the days and weeks ahead. There, they will try to reassemble the shuttle. And that will be a difficult task, according to the NASA administrator, Sean O'Keefe.
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SEAN O'KEEFE: Well, how much we're actually going to be able to reconstruct is something we'll know once we get all the pieces together, but there's certainly no way we're going to be able reconstruct it. The pieces are just absolutely mangled.
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CABELL: The accident investigation board, as I say, is now back in town. Over the next couple of days, they will be talking to NASA staffers and officials. They will then be going to the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. They will be going to the Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama, and also to a production facility in Louisiana.
So Aaron, as I say, they have a very busy next several days ahead of them and they have a lot of questions before them as well -- Aaron?
BROWN: Let me throw you one quick question, and if you can answer it, do. If you not, walk away from it. Why is it so difficult to identify which side of the shuttle this large wing came from or wing piece came from?
CABELL: That's a question we've been asking here. And frankly, we don't know. And perhaps they do know, they simply aren't telling us that at this point. But we're told that the tiles are individualized. So they should be able to...
BROWN: Right.
CABELL: ...identify which wing. But so far, they have not told us which side. We expect to get that answer, frankly, in the next day or two. BROWN: Brian, thank you. Brian Cabell in Houston reporting on the shuttle tragedy now a week old, as we continue from Kuwait, waiting for war. And that is absolutely the mood in this country. American troops by the thousands, standing by, moving into the region. We saw them all day yesterday.
One question on the table, are they ready? How are they staying ready? We'll deal with that and more as NEWSNIGHT continues from Kuwait.
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BROWN: Well, back in Kuwait, the United States has deployed about 113,000 troops to the entire region. And a good many of them are here in the north part of Iraq, of Kuwait rather, a part of the country that'll be virtually sealed off in the next day or two for Kuwaitis. More troops arriving daily. The British and the Australians, as we've talked about, are sending their own contingent to the region.
Not that we expect it to happen, of course, but if war were to break out tomorrow, would the United States and its partners have enough might in the region today to take on Iraq? Not that we expect it to happen tomorrow.
CNN military analyst retired Air Force General Don Shepperd is here tonight to give us a look at the state of play here in early February. Good evening to you. My sense is, of course, if you had to go, the forces could go, but they'd like another three weeks or so to get everything in place.
DON SHEPPERD, MAJ. GEN., U.S. AIR FORCE (RET.): Yes, you're right on the mark, Aaron. Not only do you want the time to get the forces in place, but we got a lot of forces en route right now to the northern area, to Turkey and as well as into Kuwait. So you want to get these people in. You want to get them trained. You want to get them up on the step, and all of that takes time.
And of course, you have to react to what the enemy does, but if we work on our schedule, we would like more time, probably the first part of March, even in the middle of March, as the time that we would like.
BROWN: Don, let's look at a couple of different forms there. You've got a lot of carrier and carrier groups coming into the region. How close is the air power component of a possible war to being in place?
SHEPPERD: That's the good news about air power and the flexibility of air power from all services: Navy, Air Force, Marines and Army. It can be ready to go on a moment's notice, if you will. Carriers can strike from the Mediterranean, from the Red Sea, from the Persian Gulf, from the Arabian Sea. We've got a lot of land based air in Turkey and also in throughout the Gulf.
And so that can go any time. But you want to coordinate an assault from all services. And they have to be in place. They have to be oiled, fed, ready, exercised, and that's going to take some more time, Aaron.
BROWN: We were making our way to the northern part of Kuwait to the northern border, the part that borders Iraq. And we saw convoy after convoy of Marines, some Navy Seabees (ph) coming in, that sort of thing. On the ground, what percentage as best you can tell, of the forces are in place?
SHEPPERD: Well, my guess is probably half of the forces are in place right now that you would really want to do. And what you're seeing there, Aaron, is a major logistical miracle. The idea of not just getting troops over there, but getting their equipment there, getting the equipment out of storage, ready to go and then being able to move it forward with the gas and oil and supplies that you need, the ammunition. Only the United States leading a coalition can do this type of thing. We are unique in our capability to move forces around the world and do the things you're seeing, Aaron.
BROWN: Let me ask what I think of as a practical question, but that it may give us some sense of timing in all of this. Is there a danger that troops left to sit out there in these makeshift bases out in the middle of the desert get stale, that morale starts to suffer, that they are -- you get them jacked up and ready to go, and you need to do something with them?
SHEPPERD: Absolutely. The thing that you have to do as a commander, when you get troops on the ground or at a base or on a ship is you want to get them peaked and ready, practicing their individual skills. But later on, as you approach combat, you work the war plans and brief them on rules of engagement and the plans themselves. But they can only stay at that high level for a certain period of time.
Everybody's expecting this to be around the end of February, first of March, middle of March. And then if it goes into April, and May, and June, not only does it get hot, but the people fall off the peak. And it gets very tough. You have to rotate the troops out if that happens, Aaron.
BROWN; Thank you, Don Shepperd, General Don Shepperd with us tonight. We appreciate your insights. Thank you.
We were, as you mentioned, out in the northern oil fields yesterday at that point where the Iraqis invaded a dozen years ago. And then as they left, blew up the oil wells, taken a decade to repair the damage there. We're report on that this week. We'll also look at the military build up and the preparations here in Kuwait. But it's not all that. We're going to spend some time talking to Kuwaitis, taking a look at Kuwaiti public opinion. A war is coming. They are sure of that. They are less sure that they are pleased. They are deeply worried about what comes after. All that, and much more in our week in Kuwait. Until then, I'm Aaron Brown. And we'll see you tomorrow night, 10:00 Eastern time. Until then, good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.
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