Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Final Acts of Endgame with Iraq

Aired March 16, 2003 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again, everyone. We're at CNN Center in Atlanta, and this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT. It's hard to argue that we are not now in the final acts of the end game with Iraq, and that war could come. And it's hard to imagine it won't come before this week is out.
Two contrasting pictures frame the day. In one, President Bush alongside the Spanish and British prime ministers, making clear after their hour long meeting that there will be no more extensions for inspectors, at least not many days left. And the other, a picture we saw from the desert in Kuwait, American troops on this Sunday playing touch football, child's play. Perhaps their last playful moments before going to war.

We know because we've talked with them, that they believe they are trained and ready. We are certain because we know something about human nature, that they are also nervous and at least a bit scared, and who would not be? It's as if the clock is now ticking loudly. And that clock counting down the next few days is the focus of the hour ahead.

So we begin with the word today out of the summit in the Azores that tomorrow is the moment of truth for the world. The whip begins with senior White House correspondent John King.

John, a headline?

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, President Bush is back at the White House tonight from that emergency summit in the Azores. He says the United Nations has until tomorrow, no longer, to decide whether it will adopt an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, and allow the use of force if that ultimatum is not met. White House officials are not optimistic. By this tomorrow, we might have a direct ultimatum from President Bush to President Saddam Hussein - Aaron?

BROWN: John, thank you.

Back here at the top, the U.N. now and a preview of what's sure to be a very dramatic day tomorrow. Michael Okwu there for us tonight.

Michael, a headline?

MICHAEL OKWU, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, a sense of finality here at the United Nations. Will there or will there not be a vote on the second resolution? By Tuesday morning, it may not matter. Aaron? BROWN: Michael, thank you. The latest now on the case of Elizabeth Smart. Jeanne Meserve in Salt Lake City for us this evening.

Jeanne, your headline?

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A father with no happy memories of his son. Shirl Mitchell's disturbing recollections of raising his son Brian Mitchell, the man expected to be charged in the abduction of Elizabeth Smart.

BROWN: Jeanne, thank you.

Back to all of you shortly. Also coming up tonight on this special Sunday edition of NEWSNIGHT, a lot of questions of strategy, as the military continues to put all of the pieces in place. We'll look at some of the scenarios and implications. Joined tonight by retired General Wesley Clark. And the most innocent of all the Iraqis, the children, how to keep them from suffering any more than they already have. Their faces are hard to forget. That's from Beth Nissen and it is Segment 7 on this Sunday night. All of that and more in the hour ahead.

We begin at the White House, where the president returned tonight from one of the quickest summit meetings on record. It was brief in part because nearly all of the parties now have little more to say, little left to argue, and if nothing else, the allies today recognized this. For better or worse, Britain, Spain, and the United States have now focused the issue with a pair of ultimatums, one to Iraq, the other to members of the Security Council.

How the hand gets played out is not certain, but one thing is, the hand will be played and played out soon. We begin tonight at the White House and our senior White House correspondent, John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): The bottom line of Sunday's Azores summit is that a decision on war is just hours away.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We concluded that tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world.

KING: British Prime Minister Tony Blair has perhaps the most to lose politically, but once again, stood firm in saying the United Nations Security Council must issue an ultimatum to Iraq or stand aside.

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: We cannot simply go back to the Security Council. But this discussion to be superseded by that discussion, to be superseded by another discussion.

Allies Portugal, the United States, Spain and the United Kingdom agreed to give the Security Council one last day, and to work furiously to seek support for a new resolution clearing the way for war. JOSE MARIA AZNAR, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER: (through translator) The Security Council cannot one year after the other, wait for its resolutions to be implemented.

KING: But they will not seek a vote if they do not have majority support. And Mr. Bush made no effort to conceal his scorn for those who want to give inspectors and Saddam more time, especially France.

BUSH: They say they're going to veto anything that held Saddam to account. So cards have been played.

KING: This summit and this picture was designed to show that the coalition for war goes well beyond Washington and London.

JOSE DURAO BARROSO, PORTUGAL PRIME MINISTER: (through translator) If there is a conflict, I want to repeat it once more. Portuguese will be next, and side by side with his allies.

KING: At the U.N., chief weapons inspector Hans Blix once again angered the White House by saying the U.S.-British resolution offered Iraq too little time. Undecided council members also have appealed for more time, but the White House says that would leave U.S. troops in the region vulnerable to Iraqi or terrorist attack.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We need to get on with the business of solving this problem and eliminating this threat.

KING: Mr. Bush's flight home included more telephone diplomacy, a final post summit Bush for U.N. support.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: And the president arrived back here at the White House a little more than an hour ago. Mr. Bush walked into the residence without speaking to reporters. We are told on the flight home, he made only two phone calls, both to men already on his side. Secretary of State Colin Powell received a briefing on the president on the emergency summit. Mr. Bush also called Prime Minister John Howard of Australia, who will go to his parliament in the days ahead seeking support to have Australian troops join any military confrontation with Iraq.

White House officials say the more important phone calls to key members of the Security Council will come here at the White House in the morning. They also are making clear that Monday is it. No extensions to the debate at the United Nations. Some officials saying an ultimatum from President Bush to President Saddam Hussein that military action is forthcoming within days could be delivered from the White House as early as tomorrow night - Aaron?

BROWN: You think it's likely it'll be delivered as early as tomorrow night?

KING: They say they need to see how the debate plays out at the United Nations. Some talk tonight from Prime Minister Blair that he's trying to reach a compromise with France. They need to see if they can get a second resolution through the Council. There is a great deal of skepticism here at the White House. And Aaron, if they fail to get that majority support of the Security Council, and get a resolution through, they want to pivot quickly. They do not want there to be days of discussion about the fractured international community, about not having support. Mr. Bush believes if he will not have the support of the United Nations, he might as well get the clock ticking when it comes to an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein that we are told will put the American people on notice war could come within days, and also put journalists in Baghdad - the arms inspectors in Baghdad, any diplomats from friendly nations inside Iraq on notice to get out.

BROWN: John, thank you. Our senior White House correspondent, John King tonight. It doesn't get much more stark than that. So President Bush made it clear no time left for stately diplomatic waltzes if the United Nations is now the Texas two step from here on out. Countries that aren't on board now have just hours, it seems, to get on board. France and Russia, the same, to reconsider using their vetoes.

We imagine at some point tomorrow, things will either fall into place, or more likely, fall apart. In either case, we expect the day to be a busy one. So for more on the U.N. side of this story, we go to CNN's Michael Okwu.

Michael, good evening.

OKWU: Aaron, good evening to you. A busy day tomorrow for the Security Council and a busy night tonight for the chief weapons inspector. Hans Blix came here to U.N. headquarters to put the finishing touches on a report to the Security Council, essentially a program of work, including 12 key disarmament tasks for the Iraqis. He left here today and was asked whether he would feel demoralized knowing that after four months, his work may be coming to an end. He was philosophical.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HANS BLIX, CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: That's really sad, but we have to - I think it was Martin Luther who said that, even if the world perishes tomorrow, I'm going to plant my apple tree today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OKWU: Today, phone calls from the U.S., the U.K., and Spain to key swing countries on the Security Council. The objective to get nine votes. A U.S. official says that if they reach that number, they will likely ask for a vote as soon as possible. If not, all bets are off.

Tomorrow, the Security Council meets behind closed doors, a previously scheduled meeting, asked for by Germans, the Russians, and the French to discuss the possibility of having a ministers meet here on the Council. As far as the Iraqis are concerned, even among other diplomats here and in the quarters of the U.N., thoughts are turning to war. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMED ALDOURI, IRAQI AMB. TO UNITED NATIONS: We can hopefully avoid this war, but if there's - if there will be aggression from America and others against my country, we will certainly only defend ourselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OKWU: In the meantime, the chief weapons inspectors office was looking at a VX report that had been completed translated from the Iraqis, whether or not this turns out to be just another loose end will be very clear by Tuesday morning - Aaron?

BROWN: This is what they had done with their VX gases. Is that what this report is?

OKWU: That's exactly right, Aaron. The Iraqis said about 10 to 12 days ago that they would come forward with a VX report essentially saying what they had done with their VX. They also said that they would likely come forward with an anthrax report, saying they had destroyed all their stockpiles of anthrax in the early 1990s. This report was supposed to essentially verify what they had done - Aaron?

BROWN: Except VX gas is not here for a second, just to the extent that sort of wandering the halls, you get a sense of the place. Is the sense of the place over at the U.N. on the east side of New York tonight, that war is imminent?

OKWU: That is clearly the sense, Aaron. To be fair, the United Nations is closed today, but there was certainly diplomats that we spoke to on the phone. There were U.N. officials here along the corridors, working late into the evening tonight. And the sense you get, Aaron, palpably is there's a great deal of anxiety here that after all the discussions, after all the counterproposals and the verbal jousting, that perhaps there's a real sense of finality now - Aaron?

BROWN: All right, thank you Michael Okwu with the U.N. tonight. On now to Iraq itself, a mixed picture, but growing darker we think. As Michael alluded to, there were a number of tidbits from the inspectors. We'll get to that in greater detail in a moment. But in other respects, there seems to be little in the way of give, and a lot more toughening up.

Saddam Hussein rallied his commanders today. He's been doing that almost daily. There's always a certain brutal poetry about these things. God willing this or that. Today, Saddam vowed to take the war, should it come to all corners of the earth, and tear the enemies of Iraq literally to pieces.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SADDAM HUSSEIN, PRESIDENT, IRAQ: (through translator) As when the battlefield is open on a larger scale, the enemy has to realize that the battlefield will be open anywhere there is sky, land, and water, all over the globe. You speak about the readiness of Air Force and you have some pain in your heart. It's because you don't have number wise and quality, quantitatively and quality. Qualitatively, you don't have the same level that comes even close to the level of your enemy, but if God willed, then we will fight with them, even if it's with the rifles or daggers or anything. If we - if it's - if the other weapon is scarce, although I know it is plenty, in millions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: A piece of Saddam Hussein's mind today. As we said, a few bits on disarmament as well. Many more signs of war. More signs of fear as well in Iraq and around the region. Tonight, the State Department ordered non essential diplomats and family members to immediately leave Kuwait, Israel, and Syria due to the threat of war. Today, also Germany's government advised Germans to leave Iraq immediately as well. This puts them one up on ordinary Iraqis, of course. They can't go anywhere. Tonight, all they can do is stock up and hunker down, and they are.

Here's CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New generators on the move. Business not booming. Nevertheless, fears of conflict driving up sales of essential wartime commodities.

"It's a precaution for cooking," says Dahir, "because gas may not be available." Water pumps made in Iraq, one of the bestselling items following a decree by Iraq's Revolutionary Command Council, dividing Iraq in four regions, ready for war.

"I sold 20 today," says storekeeper Mohammed. On television, a commercial by Iraq's Youth Federation advertises chemical fallout shelters, pumps and first aid kits. When we tried it, the telephone number on display was busy all day. Concerns about conflict also causing the U.N. to withdraw five of eight helicopters. The bell 212 no longer covered by insurance, relocated to Cyprus.

Despite the distractions of an apparently imminent war, destruction of Iraq's Al Samoud 2 missiles continues. Two more this day. Inspections also continuing, as Iraq offered the U.N. more documents and a letter relating to the destruction of precursor chemicals for mustard gas.

(on camera): While accelerating preparations for war, Iraq is also giving the U.N. more to think about. As well as the new documents handed in this day, videos and photographs of mobile laboratories also passed to the U.N. Iraq, it appears, is trying to keep all its options open.

Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Before turning to our next guest, or perhaps by way of getting there, we have some new polling data that shows a stiffening of support for the war. The latest CNN/"USA Today" Gallup poll shows 64 percent, nearly two-third of Americans surveyed now say they favor a war to remove Saddam Hussein from power. About a third say no. By 58 to 40 percent, people favor going to war within the next week or two. 59 percent say efforts to win international support for its position have taken too long. 38 percent believe the president ought to take more time. And 43 percent of Americans who were asked say they think the U.N. is doing a good job of handling Iraq. 53 percent when asked that question say it is not. So there's a lot to talk about. That and more.

Ken Pollack is with us again tonight. And a night we come to expect, he'll help us through the quagmire of all this.

Ken, it's good to see you. I want to pick up on something I heard you say this afternoon, then we'll move on to couple of other things. The vice president mentioned this today, and there was also some talk about this out of the Pentagon on Friday, that understandably, commanders - American commanders feel some vulnerability with their troops all lined up in Kuwait. The likelihood of an Iraqi pre-emptive attack?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Right, well, as an older Iraq analyst, the first thing I'll say is never rule out Saddam Hussein doing anything, because no matter how stupid it is, he's fully capable of doing it, based on reasons that make sense only to himself. But that said, when we're thinking about the possibility of a pre-emptive attack, we've got to distinguish between what American commanders are thinking right now, which is my troops are vulnerable. And they're right. And we need to protect them. We've distinguished between that and what Saddam Hussein is necessarily thinking. Pre-emption doesn't make a whole lot of sense, given his strategy.

First of all, Iraq's capability to pre-empt is very weak. Their air force is extremely vulnerable to our air defenses. They don't have a very large missile force. The missiles that they do have are very inaccurate. It would be extremely difficult for them to a do a lot of damage to U.S. forces. Certainly, they couldn't do enough damage to actually preclude the invasion. If they launched their own conventional forces at ours, our forces will eat them up. If they come out into the Kuwaiti desert, our air forces, our ground forces will obliterate them.

So the bottom line for Saddam is unless he's willing to use a whole bunch of his weapons of mass destruction to come after our troops, the chance that he's going to do any real damage to our troops is minimal. And if he does use weapons of mass destruction, chances are all he's doing is uniting the entire world behind the Bush administration. There's nothing that the Bush administration would like more than that, than the sense that it would finally prove to the world that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction. He is aggressive. He is a threat. And he needs to be dealt with.

BROWN: All right, let's move on to the events of today. They spent about an hour together. It took them probably 10 times as long to get to the Azores and home again. What changed today? What really changed today?

POLLACK: I don't think anything changed today, Aaron. I think that it - that the fact that they did only spend an hour together, and they immediately went into a press conference and delivered prepared remarks made it pretty clear what they were intending to do. This was an act of political theater, important political theater for Aznar and Blair to demonstrate to their people that the U.S. is trying hard, that they're doing a good job of working the United States over and trying to find anything they possibly can to make this work.

But I think it's pretty clear, everyone knows where this is headed. And now the only question is how many countries are going to come along with us?

BROWN: Would the tone of - I guess I'm asking you to predict something, I'll apologize for that, but I'll ask it anyway. Either the tone or the substance of the day, do you have any sense that it will move the needle? Does it get you closer to nine votes, which is the object of the exercise at this point?

POLLACK: Well, you did hear some interesting things today. In particular, what was coming from the French, Chirac suggesting that they were willing to accept a 30 day clock if the inspectors said that the Iraqis weren't complying. The French ambassador to the United States, Monsieur Levitte (ph) saying that a resolution that was blocked by the U.N., that was vetoed by the U.N., would make the war illegal, but that a war that proceeded without a vetoed resolution would therefore be legal, are beginning to suggest a little bit of give in the French position. I don't think it's enough necessarily to bring them on board, but what it suggests is that what the president was trying to do last week in saying we're going to make countries stand up and be counted, lay their cards on the table, say whether they're for us or in his phrase "with Saddam Hussein" is having an impact on all the different countries out there.

I think there are a lot of countries who now recognize this war's going to happen. When it happens, Saddam Hussein is almost certainly going to removed from office. And therefore, the question is how does history record your stance? Does it record you as being with the United States, what will probably the liberator, or with Saddam Hussein, the dictator who will probably be revealed to have been one of the most horrible dictators in the last 50 years.

BROWN: Yes. Worst than asking you to predict something, I'm going to ask you to give a yes or no, okay, because I'm out of time. Yes or no, do you think it's possible the president could still get nine votes out of the Security Council?

POLLACK: Yes, I think it's possible.

BROWN: Ken, thank you very much. Ken Pollack.

POLLACK: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: Again, tonight, we're pleased to have him. Still ahead on this Sunday night edition of NEWSNIGHT, what may be the final days or perhaps even hours for preparation of U.S. military. We'll talk with that guy, retired general Wesley Clark. More about that, coming up. And later, people caught in the middle of any war, women and children and the efforts to prepare for the worst. That's Segment 7 tonight. From CNN Center in Atlanta, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There have been demonstrations, both for and against the president's position on the war all weekend here and around the world. We'll get some of the protests that went on in the country today, beginning. In Washington, D.C. tonight at the Lincoln Memorial, a candlelight vigil in opposition to a possible war sponsored by the group Win Without War.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It doesn't have to happen. It does not have to happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: The group says vigils are being held tonight in more than 2,000 cities and 98 countries. Downtown Chicago next, thousands of anti war protesters turned out today. Organizers say the crowd was about 10,000. Police and Chicago have yet to release their estimate.

Not all protests were against U.S. policy today. French policies surrounding Iraq was the target of some in New York today. They showed up outside the French embassy saying "Remember Normandy" and calling on Americans to boycott French products.

Retired General Wesley Clark joins us now. We don't know what he'd make of this, but the editors of "Slate" magazine have put together a scorecard, so we can all keep our pundits straight. They listed them one through 22, from most hawkish to least. General Clark comes in at number 16, right between Tom Freedman and Richard Butler, honorable company as we see it. So number 16 joins us tonight from Little Rock.

General, it's good to see you.

WESLEY CLARK, GENERAL, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Nice to see you, Aaron.

BROWN: I wondered as Ken Pollack was talking about pre-emption and the politics of pre-emption, what the military guy was thinking at the same time?

CLARK: Military guy's thinking that it could be very bad, even though the likelihood is low. We want to be sure it doesn't happen. So we should be putting a lot of effort in making sure that we know where those surface to surface missiles are, that we're prepared to act if they start to look active, that we got 24 hour air coverage over the front lines. So there's no piper cup going to fly around and spray anthrax on our troops. It's a small probability of happening, but if it happened, it would be bad. And so we've got to put effort into preventing it. You've got to respect your adversary.

BROWN: Just one more question on this, general, it would be bad obviously from the perspective of the American troops who are harmed, that's the easy one. Does the badness of it extend in any sense beyond that?

CLARK: I think it's unclear what the reaction would be in the Arab world. On the one hand, if he used weapons of mass destruction against our troops, we would say, of course, aha, it confirms what we've been saying all along. He's got them. But in the Arab world, if he uses weapons of mass destruction and hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands of innocent civilians are killed, some part of the blame is probably going to fall on the United States for having brought about the war.

BROWN: All right, let's move on to military stuff for a couple of minutes. Imagine for a minute you're Tommy Franks and it's Sunday night in Qatar. And you're sitting there, and you know what's happened in the Azores. What are you worried about right now?

CLARK: Worried about the fact that the plan keeps shifting around. The Navy's ready, the Air Force is ready, the targets have been looked at. There's a little bit of tweaking to do on that, but my goodness, the ground plan. The Kuwaiti ports are jammed up. We've got the 101st frantically trying to symbol helicopters. Hopefully no more sandstorms. We've got units in Germany waiting to move in. We've got the fourth infantry division. We've made the decision it can't go through Turkey. Some of that stuff's coming this way. How soon will it be here? The first cavalry division?

And for every force that doesn't get there, then someone's got to look at the tasks, the missions of those forces and say well, either they're not important or they're not as important. Or if they are, take the mission that they had, give it to someone else, and get all the logistics behind it unsnarled.

And it's big, big job.

BROWN: It's a huge job. Do you have a feel for the kinds of targets that the United States will seek to take out in the first 48 hours or so?

CLARK: Well, Aaron, yes, but just to remind everybody of course, none of us as correspondents or commentators have seen these plans. And the things we're going to say are the things that Iraqi generals have learned from Serb generals, and have read in the press and so forth, but of course we're going to be after the enemy's air defense. And so, we're going to go after surface to air missile sites, his early warning radars, his target tracking radars, his air fields, his hangars, anything that keeps his air force and his surface to air missile force together. And then we're going to go after the command and control centers and the lines of communications. And we're going to hope he fights back vigorously, because every time he fights back, we're going to identify him, detect him, destroy him.

BROWN: So the theory there is if you show where you are, in a heartbeat, you can take him out.

CLARK: Right.

BROWN: That - a sort of - what if it's a rope a dope? What if he doesn't do anything until they get to Baghdad?

CLARK: I think he's going to be very surprised because we've worked a lot on this since the Serbian campaign four years ago, in which the Serbs did do a rope a dope on us. It took us longer than we wanted it to. And I know John Jumper, the Air Force chief of staff and the others have learned a lot from that campaign. We're going to go after him. We know where he is. And he's going to be taken down from the air, most of that command and control.

BROWN: When you talk about command and control, what are you talking about, by the way?

CLARK: These are headquarters and reporting locations, sector headquarters, overall national headquarters, the nodes where the fiber optics and the radio relays and the high frequency radios, and the telephones come together, where Iraqi officers sit and they assign missiles to fire particular aircraft, or they warn - they monitor radio communications and they try to tell particular units they're about to be attacked.

We want to take out his command and control system, so these units, whether they're surface to air missile firing batteries or republican guards divisions, are isolated on the battlefield, receiving no effective instructions.

BROWN: All right, general, I have a feeling that we're going to be doing this conversation in real time, as we look at events in Iraq before the week is out. It's good to talk to you. Thank you, sir.

CLARK: Thanks, Aaron. Good to be with you.

BROWN: General Wesley Clark, who's in Little Rock tonight. More on Iraq before this hour is up. Some of the other things that have made news today coming up next, the latest on the Elizabeth Smart case. An amazing assertion by the father of her alleged kidnapper. And the story of a deadly form of pneumonia and the scare it has thrown into American health officials and others. For the CNN Center in Atlanta, this NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The piece of irony in the Elizabeth Smart case, at Christmastime, her parents were interviewed by John Walsh of "America's Most Wanted," talking about a different man they suspected in the kidnapping, someone who had done a bit of work one day at their home in Salt Lake. And it appears as they were doing that, that Elizabeth was spending her Christmas with that same man, Brian Mitchell, along with his wife, Wandee Barzee.

CNN affiliate KUSI in San Diego has found some video of what looks to be the trio at a Christmas day charity dinner. That's one glimpse at Brian Mitchell at least.

Jeanne Meserve got another today from his father, who gave her a most unsettling look at a very troubled life.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Since Brian Mitchell's arrest for the abduction of Elizabeth Smart, his father has written a time line of events that might help explain how his son ended up here.

SHIRL MITCHELL, BRIAN MITCHELL'S FATHER: Like the guy falling off a skyscraper, he can't reverse the direction of gravity.

MESERVE: The list begins with an accidental conception, a difficult birth, suspicions that Brian might have been abused in day care, and goes on to catalogue their own troubled relationship, the time he hit Brian with a hose and another incident when Brian was 12.

MITCHELL: I just drove out to Rose Park and said now Brian, you're on your own.

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell says Brian was a tease and a tormentor, who had an intense rivalry with a younger sister, Lori.

MITCHELL: He was always being isolated and singled out as an odd one, a black sheep.

MESERVE: Was he an odd one?

MITCHELL: Yes. Yes.

MESERVE: Shirl is a self confessed voyeur, who has written two volumes about his personal theology that are full of explicit sexual content. He admits showing his 7 or 8 year old son pictures of human genitalia. And he believes his erotic literature contributed to an episode of indecent exposure one day after school when Brian was a teenager.

MITCHELL: And then this little girl walks into the house, you know. And I don't know how she got there, but she did. And he's the only one there, and then goes and tells her daddy that Brian showed his privates to her.

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell says that though there may be an explanation for what his son has done, there is no justification. But he says, his son's action should be put in perspective.

MITCHELL: How many of these things, degenerates, take little kids and dismember their bodies or kill them outright and bury them? Now they -- when they're getting to be overcritical of Brian, they should remember that. They're continuing to say see, he's a monster for taking away a minor, but they got to back up a little and realize compared to these other things, he's a saint.

MESERVE: As he sifts through his son's life, trying to find explanations, what happy memories can Shirl recall?

MITCHELL: Hmm, well you know with all the other things I've said, it's hard to find one.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell has not visited his son in jail and says he doesn't have any plans to do so. The two have never been close, but Shirl Mitchell says he feels partially responsible for what has happened to his son. And he wants to help by explaining as best he can his troubled past. Aaron?

BROWN: When do we see Mr. Mitchell? When is the arraignment, if there's an arraignment?

MESERVE: We don't know that yet. We know there have been a lot of meetings over the weekend between prosecutors and investigators, investigators working through both Saturday and Sunday, putting this case together. We don't know when there will be arraignments here or possibly also in Salt Lake County, where Mitchell's name has been brought up in connection with a possible abduction of one of Elizabeth's cousins.

BROWN: Jeanne, thank you, Jeanne Meserve in Salt Lake.

Just about five miles or so from where we are, this is a busy weekend as well. Biologists at the Centers for Disease Control has a bug on their hands, causing a lot of trouble in many parts of the world. Mostly in Southeast Asia. The symptoms look a lot like pneumonia. A number of people have already died. Lots of people are afraid. And the best anyone can tell, the disease has yet to make an appearance in this country. Nobody is taking any chances. And yes, they are asking that question, too.

Dr. Jeffrey Kaplan is with us now. He's former director at the CDC just up the road from here. He's not at Emory University and vice president in Health Sciences.

Nice to see you. Is it pneumonia? This has gone through Hong Kong. I know I saw something the other day that they're very concerned about a Hong Kong, that corner of the world. Is it pneumonia?

JEFFREY KAPLAN, FMR. CDC DIRECTOR: It's unclear. I don't think there are enough specimens or clinical information at CDC, but they're trying to get as much as they can.

BROWN: If it's - are there many - I'm sorry, are there many different pneumonias?

KAPLAN: Well, there are many different organisms, bugs, bacteria, viruses, that can cause pneumonia, or can cause an infection. And I think the symptoms, as they're describing are relatively high fever, and some cough, and some quite serious illness obviously with deaths. And there are a number of agents that can cause that. BROWN: And I assume, otherwise we wouldn't be sitting here talking about it, that antibiotics at this point aren't working?

KAPLAN: Well again, we - you know, we the public, nor do I believe CDC has adequate information on the cases that have occurred. There have been no cases in the U.S. And they're getting most of their information second hand at the moment, and need to get much better information to get a better handle on this.

BROWN: What happens in a situation like this, when something emerges a half a world away? And I assume that people in the public health business are - start to get nervous, want to know as much as they can. Do you get at some point like a slide? Do you get a picture of the bug? I mean, what happens?

KAPLAN: Well, I think people get intensely interested, rather than nervous.

BROWN: Yeah, okay.

KAPLAN: And what they do is, there's a fairly prescribed sequence of steps in doing an investigation like first you collect as much information you can from the people that have been saying the cases that have occurred. The ideal thing is then you get firsthand information yourself, much as any doctor would want to visit and examine a patient who is ill, a public health specialist wants to visit the scene and find out what's going on, see for themselves, and begin to try to develop a hypothesis. What are the likely possible causes for this? What bugs might cause, what viruses, what bacteria? Are there circumstances in the environment that might have led to this? And that's done by both epidemiologic investigation, asking questions, doing an investigation, also laboratory work.

BROWN: Is it - I'm going to ask this, because I know people are thinking it, and I suppose at one point or another I am, too, is it absolutely out of the question that this could have been something inflicted upon people by humans? That is to say a terrorist agent of some sort? Is that possible?

KAPLAN: I think in March of the year 2003, we exclude nothing. Nor have we for the last couple of years, that whatever event occurs, particularly if it's unusual, it has to be considered as possibly naturally occurring and possibly purposeful. And that was the case with anthrax and - recently. And it's the case with almost everything that comes up these days.

BROWN: The concern, it would seem to me, one of the concerns is that where there's a very mobile we live in, people travel from A to B all the time. That was in Hong Kong this morning could very easily be in San Francisco tonight, couldn't it?

KAPLAN: Absolutely true. Although and again, while we all worry about terrorist agents, purposeful use of these agents, we have to remember that in the past 30 years, there have been 30 new emerging infections that afflict us. So whether everything from West Nile to Toxic Shock Syndrome, the Lyme Disease, to HIV/AIDS. And we may be dealing with a new, naturally occurring infection in this instance as well.

BROWN: Just very quickly, how I won't say nervous, how interested are you right now?

KAPLAN: I think this is a subject of considerable concerns, both public health authorities, to clinical physicians and to the public.

BROWN: Good to meet you. Thanks for coming in tonight.

KAPLAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you, doctor very much.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, Sunday night, the 16th of March, we'll go for a jog in the desert with the U.S. Marines. A short break first. We're on Atlanta. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There's a book on Amazon.com, that's Amazon.com, that gets rave reviews from those who bought it. "U.S. Marines Corps Workout." You can get a preview right now with the workout, without even buying the book. But in this case, getting in fighting shape isn't a matter of losing some extra pounds. Here, it could mean the difference between life and death.

Alessio Vinci has our latest report from the front lines. He's with the U.S. Marines in Kuwait.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALESSIO VINCI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): To be prepared for war, everything must be in shape. The bodies of the Marines, as well as the engines of their armor. But with daytime temperatures over 85 degrees Fahrenheit and rising, a 2.5 mile run is a challenge for some of the mainly well trained Marines of (UNINTELLIGIBLE.) And there is little time left to get into shape.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sometime in the near future, we don't know when it's coming, but it's coming. We're going to be crossing a couple burhams, about 20 kilometers to the west. And it's going to be a race north.

VINCI: Lieutenant Colonel Rick Rubowsky (ph) says that race north will be as fast as his man's weakest because no one will be left behind.

RICK RUBOWSKY (ph), LIEUTENANT COLONEL, U.S. MARINES: We have to depend on each other when we go across. And I need you to reach down and grab some, and stay tough, stay strong.

VINCI: The training is also aimed at keeping morale high, not easy when you command thousands of Marines camped in tents under a blazing sun for a month, with nothing else to think about, other than going to war or returning back home.

So training also includes a final sprint race with a reward.

RUBOWSKY (ph): When the two top finishers from the country's going to get a phone call tonight to call home.

VINCI: For the winner of one of the races, the grueling exercise paid off.

BLAS JORDAN, CPL., U.S. MARINES: This means a lot, you know, because it keeps you active and it helps to take your mind off like, okay, I'm missing home, missing my wife.

VINCI (on camera): Even the toughest and the strongest have feelings. And as one senior officer here put it, their job is to keep these feelings from interfering with Marine readiness.

Alessio Vinci, CNN with the U.S. Marines in Kuwait.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: We have other stories to fit in tonight, beginning with a death in Gaza. An Israeli bulldozer killed an American woman there protesting the destruction of Palestinian houses. At least one Palestinian killed as well. Rachel Cory of Olympia, Washington was working with a Palestinian led group that protests Israeli policy. And Israeli spokesman called it "a regrettable accident" and said that the protesters are "putting everyone in danger." The other side says it is impossible in their view that the driver did not see Ms. Cory.

In Serbia today, the party of the assassinated prime minister Zoran Djindjic proposed a reform ally to take his place. Zoran Zivkovic pledged to crack down on the kinds of criminals blamed for last week's assassination. The government believes Serbian gangster bosses were behind the killing.

And across Northern Iraq, Kurds observed a moment of silence to remember the day 15 years ago when Saddam Hussein's forces attacked the city of Halabjah with mustard nerve gas. 5,000 men and women and children were killed that day. President Bush mentioned the anniversary today in his remarks after the summit in the Azores.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll look at a group that is caught in the middle in any war, the children. But up next, morning papers. Tomorrow morning's papers from around the country and around the world. A short break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This is time for - do that again - time for morning papers around the country and around the world. These are the headlines you'll see tomorrow, no matter where you are. And this is my worst nightmare, because there are probably 30 of them. Almost literally, they are all the same. So how many different ways can you come with saying "Moment of Truth" to the world?

Here's "The Chicago Sun-Times," can you see it? "Moment of Truth For the World." Also the front page, "The Illini," that's Illinois, big 10 champions. I guess they picked the 64 teams for the NCAA today. Just one of those things that we missed on Sunday if we're working. "USA Today," what do you think "USA Today" said? You're over there? They said "Moment of Truth." Today is the Moment of Truth. The lead in "USA Today" if you're traveling, and I am.

Even - well not even, Aniston, Alabama, the fine folks who run the "Aniston Star" in Aniston, Alabama, a home owned newspaper. And what's their lead say? "You Got It: Moment of Truth." Not to be outdone, out west, the "San Francisco Chronicle." And what do you think "the Chronicle" led with? "Bush to U.N.: Moment of Truth."

Now you're thinking okay, but "The Boston Herald," because it's a tabloid, they'll do it differently, won't they in Boston? No, "The Boston Herald" tonight, "Moment of Truth: Bush Last Chance for Diplomacy."

Now we have a great affection for "The Detroit Free Press." And no more so ever than today because they didn't say "Moment of Truth." What did "The Free Press" of Detroit say? "Bush to," I like this headline by the way, "Bush to U.N.: Joint or Watch." I'm sure there are - oh, they put the NCAA brackets on their front page. I mean, they didn't put them all on the front page, but they note that also.

And so, how are we doing on time? 15 seconds? Here's how "The Guardian," a British newspaper, headlined this. They didn't say "moment of truth," bless them. "The Final 24 Hours." That's their headline. And that's morning papers. You can now put out a morning paper yourself. You just leave "Moment of Truth," it works every time.

Still ahead tonight, Segment 7 on NEWSNIGHT. The children of Iraq, already among the worst off in the world, and at least short term, it's not likely to get better. From CNN Center in Atlanta and around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: It's a cruel paradox of war, the children, the ones with the least to blame for any conflict are the most at risk for suffering, especially true in Iraq.

Here's CNN's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Twelve million Iraqis, half the population, are children under the age of 18. Four a million of those children are under the age of five.

CAROL BELLAMY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR U.N. CHILDRENS' FUND: Since the early '80s, Iraq has participated in and engaged in two wars. There have been over 10 years of sanctions. All of this coming together means that the impact on the children has been particularly harsh.

NISSEN: Some also blame government economic and social policies that have depressed average salaries to between $3 and $6 a month, and made Iraq's population almost wholly dependent on monthly government food rations. The impact on children has been severe. A third of Iraqi children are malnourished. A quarter have no reliable access to clean water. One of out eight children dies before the age of five, one of the worst child mortality rates in the world. Another war cannot help but make the situation worse.

BELLAMY: The victims of war are largely civilians, largely women and children. Sometimes they are outright killed or hurt or maimed, but they're victims because they're the ones who generally have to flee.

NISSEN: In anticipation of war, UNICEF has already prepositioned tons of relief supplies in Iraq and Iran and Jordan, from mobile water purification units, to emergency food packets, to clinics in a box.

BELLAMY: If there is war, the victims of the conflict need to have some kind of immediate response, basic health, basic medicines, clean water.

NISSEN: UNICEF has been working steadily in Iraq since 1983, including throughout the 1991 war. On the brink of another war, UNICEF's well established networks of local staffers are doing their best to carry on. Teams are going door to door to immunize children against polio, and have accelerated a campaign to vaccinate children against measles, a major child killer that often spreads quickly during and after a war, when large numbers of people are displaced.

BELLAMY: We try and stay out of geopolitics. I don't want to be naive. Politics plays a role in everything, but we are a humanitarian organization. We try and keep our focus on children. Children are not the enemy.

NISSEN: Although they are likely to number among the casualties, as they do whenever nations go to war.

Beth Nissen, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Good to have you with us tonight. We'll see you tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 16, 2003 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again, everyone. We're at CNN Center in Atlanta, and this is a special edition of NEWSNIGHT. It's hard to argue that we are not now in the final acts of the end game with Iraq, and that war could come. And it's hard to imagine it won't come before this week is out.
Two contrasting pictures frame the day. In one, President Bush alongside the Spanish and British prime ministers, making clear after their hour long meeting that there will be no more extensions for inspectors, at least not many days left. And the other, a picture we saw from the desert in Kuwait, American troops on this Sunday playing touch football, child's play. Perhaps their last playful moments before going to war.

We know because we've talked with them, that they believe they are trained and ready. We are certain because we know something about human nature, that they are also nervous and at least a bit scared, and who would not be? It's as if the clock is now ticking loudly. And that clock counting down the next few days is the focus of the hour ahead.

So we begin with the word today out of the summit in the Azores that tomorrow is the moment of truth for the world. The whip begins with senior White House correspondent John King.

John, a headline?

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, President Bush is back at the White House tonight from that emergency summit in the Azores. He says the United Nations has until tomorrow, no longer, to decide whether it will adopt an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein, and allow the use of force if that ultimatum is not met. White House officials are not optimistic. By this tomorrow, we might have a direct ultimatum from President Bush to President Saddam Hussein - Aaron?

BROWN: John, thank you.

Back here at the top, the U.N. now and a preview of what's sure to be a very dramatic day tomorrow. Michael Okwu there for us tonight.

Michael, a headline?

MICHAEL OKWU, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, a sense of finality here at the United Nations. Will there or will there not be a vote on the second resolution? By Tuesday morning, it may not matter. Aaron? BROWN: Michael, thank you. The latest now on the case of Elizabeth Smart. Jeanne Meserve in Salt Lake City for us this evening.

Jeanne, your headline?

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A father with no happy memories of his son. Shirl Mitchell's disturbing recollections of raising his son Brian Mitchell, the man expected to be charged in the abduction of Elizabeth Smart.

BROWN: Jeanne, thank you.

Back to all of you shortly. Also coming up tonight on this special Sunday edition of NEWSNIGHT, a lot of questions of strategy, as the military continues to put all of the pieces in place. We'll look at some of the scenarios and implications. Joined tonight by retired General Wesley Clark. And the most innocent of all the Iraqis, the children, how to keep them from suffering any more than they already have. Their faces are hard to forget. That's from Beth Nissen and it is Segment 7 on this Sunday night. All of that and more in the hour ahead.

We begin at the White House, where the president returned tonight from one of the quickest summit meetings on record. It was brief in part because nearly all of the parties now have little more to say, little left to argue, and if nothing else, the allies today recognized this. For better or worse, Britain, Spain, and the United States have now focused the issue with a pair of ultimatums, one to Iraq, the other to members of the Security Council.

How the hand gets played out is not certain, but one thing is, the hand will be played and played out soon. We begin tonight at the White House and our senior White House correspondent, John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): The bottom line of Sunday's Azores summit is that a decision on war is just hours away.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We concluded that tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world.

KING: British Prime Minister Tony Blair has perhaps the most to lose politically, but once again, stood firm in saying the United Nations Security Council must issue an ultimatum to Iraq or stand aside.

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: We cannot simply go back to the Security Council. But this discussion to be superseded by that discussion, to be superseded by another discussion.

Allies Portugal, the United States, Spain and the United Kingdom agreed to give the Security Council one last day, and to work furiously to seek support for a new resolution clearing the way for war. JOSE MARIA AZNAR, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER: (through translator) The Security Council cannot one year after the other, wait for its resolutions to be implemented.

KING: But they will not seek a vote if they do not have majority support. And Mr. Bush made no effort to conceal his scorn for those who want to give inspectors and Saddam more time, especially France.

BUSH: They say they're going to veto anything that held Saddam to account. So cards have been played.

KING: This summit and this picture was designed to show that the coalition for war goes well beyond Washington and London.

JOSE DURAO BARROSO, PORTUGAL PRIME MINISTER: (through translator) If there is a conflict, I want to repeat it once more. Portuguese will be next, and side by side with his allies.

KING: At the U.N., chief weapons inspector Hans Blix once again angered the White House by saying the U.S.-British resolution offered Iraq too little time. Undecided council members also have appealed for more time, but the White House says that would leave U.S. troops in the region vulnerable to Iraqi or terrorist attack.

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We need to get on with the business of solving this problem and eliminating this threat.

KING: Mr. Bush's flight home included more telephone diplomacy, a final post summit Bush for U.N. support.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KING: And the president arrived back here at the White House a little more than an hour ago. Mr. Bush walked into the residence without speaking to reporters. We are told on the flight home, he made only two phone calls, both to men already on his side. Secretary of State Colin Powell received a briefing on the president on the emergency summit. Mr. Bush also called Prime Minister John Howard of Australia, who will go to his parliament in the days ahead seeking support to have Australian troops join any military confrontation with Iraq.

White House officials say the more important phone calls to key members of the Security Council will come here at the White House in the morning. They also are making clear that Monday is it. No extensions to the debate at the United Nations. Some officials saying an ultimatum from President Bush to President Saddam Hussein that military action is forthcoming within days could be delivered from the White House as early as tomorrow night - Aaron?

BROWN: You think it's likely it'll be delivered as early as tomorrow night?

KING: They say they need to see how the debate plays out at the United Nations. Some talk tonight from Prime Minister Blair that he's trying to reach a compromise with France. They need to see if they can get a second resolution through the Council. There is a great deal of skepticism here at the White House. And Aaron, if they fail to get that majority support of the Security Council, and get a resolution through, they want to pivot quickly. They do not want there to be days of discussion about the fractured international community, about not having support. Mr. Bush believes if he will not have the support of the United Nations, he might as well get the clock ticking when it comes to an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein that we are told will put the American people on notice war could come within days, and also put journalists in Baghdad - the arms inspectors in Baghdad, any diplomats from friendly nations inside Iraq on notice to get out.

BROWN: John, thank you. Our senior White House correspondent, John King tonight. It doesn't get much more stark than that. So President Bush made it clear no time left for stately diplomatic waltzes if the United Nations is now the Texas two step from here on out. Countries that aren't on board now have just hours, it seems, to get on board. France and Russia, the same, to reconsider using their vetoes.

We imagine at some point tomorrow, things will either fall into place, or more likely, fall apart. In either case, we expect the day to be a busy one. So for more on the U.N. side of this story, we go to CNN's Michael Okwu.

Michael, good evening.

OKWU: Aaron, good evening to you. A busy day tomorrow for the Security Council and a busy night tonight for the chief weapons inspector. Hans Blix came here to U.N. headquarters to put the finishing touches on a report to the Security Council, essentially a program of work, including 12 key disarmament tasks for the Iraqis. He left here today and was asked whether he would feel demoralized knowing that after four months, his work may be coming to an end. He was philosophical.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HANS BLIX, CHIEF WEAPONS INSPECTOR: That's really sad, but we have to - I think it was Martin Luther who said that, even if the world perishes tomorrow, I'm going to plant my apple tree today.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OKWU: Today, phone calls from the U.S., the U.K., and Spain to key swing countries on the Security Council. The objective to get nine votes. A U.S. official says that if they reach that number, they will likely ask for a vote as soon as possible. If not, all bets are off.

Tomorrow, the Security Council meets behind closed doors, a previously scheduled meeting, asked for by Germans, the Russians, and the French to discuss the possibility of having a ministers meet here on the Council. As far as the Iraqis are concerned, even among other diplomats here and in the quarters of the U.N., thoughts are turning to war. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMED ALDOURI, IRAQI AMB. TO UNITED NATIONS: We can hopefully avoid this war, but if there's - if there will be aggression from America and others against my country, we will certainly only defend ourselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OKWU: In the meantime, the chief weapons inspectors office was looking at a VX report that had been completed translated from the Iraqis, whether or not this turns out to be just another loose end will be very clear by Tuesday morning - Aaron?

BROWN: This is what they had done with their VX gases. Is that what this report is?

OKWU: That's exactly right, Aaron. The Iraqis said about 10 to 12 days ago that they would come forward with a VX report essentially saying what they had done with their VX. They also said that they would likely come forward with an anthrax report, saying they had destroyed all their stockpiles of anthrax in the early 1990s. This report was supposed to essentially verify what they had done - Aaron?

BROWN: Except VX gas is not here for a second, just to the extent that sort of wandering the halls, you get a sense of the place. Is the sense of the place over at the U.N. on the east side of New York tonight, that war is imminent?

OKWU: That is clearly the sense, Aaron. To be fair, the United Nations is closed today, but there was certainly diplomats that we spoke to on the phone. There were U.N. officials here along the corridors, working late into the evening tonight. And the sense you get, Aaron, palpably is there's a great deal of anxiety here that after all the discussions, after all the counterproposals and the verbal jousting, that perhaps there's a real sense of finality now - Aaron?

BROWN: All right, thank you Michael Okwu with the U.N. tonight. On now to Iraq itself, a mixed picture, but growing darker we think. As Michael alluded to, there were a number of tidbits from the inspectors. We'll get to that in greater detail in a moment. But in other respects, there seems to be little in the way of give, and a lot more toughening up.

Saddam Hussein rallied his commanders today. He's been doing that almost daily. There's always a certain brutal poetry about these things. God willing this or that. Today, Saddam vowed to take the war, should it come to all corners of the earth, and tear the enemies of Iraq literally to pieces.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SADDAM HUSSEIN, PRESIDENT, IRAQ: (through translator) As when the battlefield is open on a larger scale, the enemy has to realize that the battlefield will be open anywhere there is sky, land, and water, all over the globe. You speak about the readiness of Air Force and you have some pain in your heart. It's because you don't have number wise and quality, quantitatively and quality. Qualitatively, you don't have the same level that comes even close to the level of your enemy, but if God willed, then we will fight with them, even if it's with the rifles or daggers or anything. If we - if it's - if the other weapon is scarce, although I know it is plenty, in millions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: A piece of Saddam Hussein's mind today. As we said, a few bits on disarmament as well. Many more signs of war. More signs of fear as well in Iraq and around the region. Tonight, the State Department ordered non essential diplomats and family members to immediately leave Kuwait, Israel, and Syria due to the threat of war. Today, also Germany's government advised Germans to leave Iraq immediately as well. This puts them one up on ordinary Iraqis, of course. They can't go anywhere. Tonight, all they can do is stock up and hunker down, and they are.

Here's CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New generators on the move. Business not booming. Nevertheless, fears of conflict driving up sales of essential wartime commodities.

"It's a precaution for cooking," says Dahir, "because gas may not be available." Water pumps made in Iraq, one of the bestselling items following a decree by Iraq's Revolutionary Command Council, dividing Iraq in four regions, ready for war.

"I sold 20 today," says storekeeper Mohammed. On television, a commercial by Iraq's Youth Federation advertises chemical fallout shelters, pumps and first aid kits. When we tried it, the telephone number on display was busy all day. Concerns about conflict also causing the U.N. to withdraw five of eight helicopters. The bell 212 no longer covered by insurance, relocated to Cyprus.

Despite the distractions of an apparently imminent war, destruction of Iraq's Al Samoud 2 missiles continues. Two more this day. Inspections also continuing, as Iraq offered the U.N. more documents and a letter relating to the destruction of precursor chemicals for mustard gas.

(on camera): While accelerating preparations for war, Iraq is also giving the U.N. more to think about. As well as the new documents handed in this day, videos and photographs of mobile laboratories also passed to the U.N. Iraq, it appears, is trying to keep all its options open.

Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Before turning to our next guest, or perhaps by way of getting there, we have some new polling data that shows a stiffening of support for the war. The latest CNN/"USA Today" Gallup poll shows 64 percent, nearly two-third of Americans surveyed now say they favor a war to remove Saddam Hussein from power. About a third say no. By 58 to 40 percent, people favor going to war within the next week or two. 59 percent say efforts to win international support for its position have taken too long. 38 percent believe the president ought to take more time. And 43 percent of Americans who were asked say they think the U.N. is doing a good job of handling Iraq. 53 percent when asked that question say it is not. So there's a lot to talk about. That and more.

Ken Pollack is with us again tonight. And a night we come to expect, he'll help us through the quagmire of all this.

Ken, it's good to see you. I want to pick up on something I heard you say this afternoon, then we'll move on to couple of other things. The vice president mentioned this today, and there was also some talk about this out of the Pentagon on Friday, that understandably, commanders - American commanders feel some vulnerability with their troops all lined up in Kuwait. The likelihood of an Iraqi pre-emptive attack?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Right, well, as an older Iraq analyst, the first thing I'll say is never rule out Saddam Hussein doing anything, because no matter how stupid it is, he's fully capable of doing it, based on reasons that make sense only to himself. But that said, when we're thinking about the possibility of a pre-emptive attack, we've got to distinguish between what American commanders are thinking right now, which is my troops are vulnerable. And they're right. And we need to protect them. We've distinguished between that and what Saddam Hussein is necessarily thinking. Pre-emption doesn't make a whole lot of sense, given his strategy.

First of all, Iraq's capability to pre-empt is very weak. Their air force is extremely vulnerable to our air defenses. They don't have a very large missile force. The missiles that they do have are very inaccurate. It would be extremely difficult for them to a do a lot of damage to U.S. forces. Certainly, they couldn't do enough damage to actually preclude the invasion. If they launched their own conventional forces at ours, our forces will eat them up. If they come out into the Kuwaiti desert, our air forces, our ground forces will obliterate them.

So the bottom line for Saddam is unless he's willing to use a whole bunch of his weapons of mass destruction to come after our troops, the chance that he's going to do any real damage to our troops is minimal. And if he does use weapons of mass destruction, chances are all he's doing is uniting the entire world behind the Bush administration. There's nothing that the Bush administration would like more than that, than the sense that it would finally prove to the world that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction. He is aggressive. He is a threat. And he needs to be dealt with.

BROWN: All right, let's move on to the events of today. They spent about an hour together. It took them probably 10 times as long to get to the Azores and home again. What changed today? What really changed today?

POLLACK: I don't think anything changed today, Aaron. I think that it - that the fact that they did only spend an hour together, and they immediately went into a press conference and delivered prepared remarks made it pretty clear what they were intending to do. This was an act of political theater, important political theater for Aznar and Blair to demonstrate to their people that the U.S. is trying hard, that they're doing a good job of working the United States over and trying to find anything they possibly can to make this work.

But I think it's pretty clear, everyone knows where this is headed. And now the only question is how many countries are going to come along with us?

BROWN: Would the tone of - I guess I'm asking you to predict something, I'll apologize for that, but I'll ask it anyway. Either the tone or the substance of the day, do you have any sense that it will move the needle? Does it get you closer to nine votes, which is the object of the exercise at this point?

POLLACK: Well, you did hear some interesting things today. In particular, what was coming from the French, Chirac suggesting that they were willing to accept a 30 day clock if the inspectors said that the Iraqis weren't complying. The French ambassador to the United States, Monsieur Levitte (ph) saying that a resolution that was blocked by the U.N., that was vetoed by the U.N., would make the war illegal, but that a war that proceeded without a vetoed resolution would therefore be legal, are beginning to suggest a little bit of give in the French position. I don't think it's enough necessarily to bring them on board, but what it suggests is that what the president was trying to do last week in saying we're going to make countries stand up and be counted, lay their cards on the table, say whether they're for us or in his phrase "with Saddam Hussein" is having an impact on all the different countries out there.

I think there are a lot of countries who now recognize this war's going to happen. When it happens, Saddam Hussein is almost certainly going to removed from office. And therefore, the question is how does history record your stance? Does it record you as being with the United States, what will probably the liberator, or with Saddam Hussein, the dictator who will probably be revealed to have been one of the most horrible dictators in the last 50 years.

BROWN: Yes. Worst than asking you to predict something, I'm going to ask you to give a yes or no, okay, because I'm out of time. Yes or no, do you think it's possible the president could still get nine votes out of the Security Council?

POLLACK: Yes, I think it's possible.

BROWN: Ken, thank you very much. Ken Pollack.

POLLACK: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: Again, tonight, we're pleased to have him. Still ahead on this Sunday night edition of NEWSNIGHT, what may be the final days or perhaps even hours for preparation of U.S. military. We'll talk with that guy, retired general Wesley Clark. More about that, coming up. And later, people caught in the middle of any war, women and children and the efforts to prepare for the worst. That's Segment 7 tonight. From CNN Center in Atlanta, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There have been demonstrations, both for and against the president's position on the war all weekend here and around the world. We'll get some of the protests that went on in the country today, beginning. In Washington, D.C. tonight at the Lincoln Memorial, a candlelight vigil in opposition to a possible war sponsored by the group Win Without War.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It doesn't have to happen. It does not have to happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: The group says vigils are being held tonight in more than 2,000 cities and 98 countries. Downtown Chicago next, thousands of anti war protesters turned out today. Organizers say the crowd was about 10,000. Police and Chicago have yet to release their estimate.

Not all protests were against U.S. policy today. French policies surrounding Iraq was the target of some in New York today. They showed up outside the French embassy saying "Remember Normandy" and calling on Americans to boycott French products.

Retired General Wesley Clark joins us now. We don't know what he'd make of this, but the editors of "Slate" magazine have put together a scorecard, so we can all keep our pundits straight. They listed them one through 22, from most hawkish to least. General Clark comes in at number 16, right between Tom Freedman and Richard Butler, honorable company as we see it. So number 16 joins us tonight from Little Rock.

General, it's good to see you.

WESLEY CLARK, GENERAL, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Nice to see you, Aaron.

BROWN: I wondered as Ken Pollack was talking about pre-emption and the politics of pre-emption, what the military guy was thinking at the same time?

CLARK: Military guy's thinking that it could be very bad, even though the likelihood is low. We want to be sure it doesn't happen. So we should be putting a lot of effort in making sure that we know where those surface to surface missiles are, that we're prepared to act if they start to look active, that we got 24 hour air coverage over the front lines. So there's no piper cup going to fly around and spray anthrax on our troops. It's a small probability of happening, but if it happened, it would be bad. And so we've got to put effort into preventing it. You've got to respect your adversary.

BROWN: Just one more question on this, general, it would be bad obviously from the perspective of the American troops who are harmed, that's the easy one. Does the badness of it extend in any sense beyond that?

CLARK: I think it's unclear what the reaction would be in the Arab world. On the one hand, if he used weapons of mass destruction against our troops, we would say, of course, aha, it confirms what we've been saying all along. He's got them. But in the Arab world, if he uses weapons of mass destruction and hundreds of thousands or tens of thousands of innocent civilians are killed, some part of the blame is probably going to fall on the United States for having brought about the war.

BROWN: All right, let's move on to military stuff for a couple of minutes. Imagine for a minute you're Tommy Franks and it's Sunday night in Qatar. And you're sitting there, and you know what's happened in the Azores. What are you worried about right now?

CLARK: Worried about the fact that the plan keeps shifting around. The Navy's ready, the Air Force is ready, the targets have been looked at. There's a little bit of tweaking to do on that, but my goodness, the ground plan. The Kuwaiti ports are jammed up. We've got the 101st frantically trying to symbol helicopters. Hopefully no more sandstorms. We've got units in Germany waiting to move in. We've got the fourth infantry division. We've made the decision it can't go through Turkey. Some of that stuff's coming this way. How soon will it be here? The first cavalry division?

And for every force that doesn't get there, then someone's got to look at the tasks, the missions of those forces and say well, either they're not important or they're not as important. Or if they are, take the mission that they had, give it to someone else, and get all the logistics behind it unsnarled.

And it's big, big job.

BROWN: It's a huge job. Do you have a feel for the kinds of targets that the United States will seek to take out in the first 48 hours or so?

CLARK: Well, Aaron, yes, but just to remind everybody of course, none of us as correspondents or commentators have seen these plans. And the things we're going to say are the things that Iraqi generals have learned from Serb generals, and have read in the press and so forth, but of course we're going to be after the enemy's air defense. And so, we're going to go after surface to air missile sites, his early warning radars, his target tracking radars, his air fields, his hangars, anything that keeps his air force and his surface to air missile force together. And then we're going to go after the command and control centers and the lines of communications. And we're going to hope he fights back vigorously, because every time he fights back, we're going to identify him, detect him, destroy him.

BROWN: So the theory there is if you show where you are, in a heartbeat, you can take him out.

CLARK: Right.

BROWN: That - a sort of - what if it's a rope a dope? What if he doesn't do anything until they get to Baghdad?

CLARK: I think he's going to be very surprised because we've worked a lot on this since the Serbian campaign four years ago, in which the Serbs did do a rope a dope on us. It took us longer than we wanted it to. And I know John Jumper, the Air Force chief of staff and the others have learned a lot from that campaign. We're going to go after him. We know where he is. And he's going to be taken down from the air, most of that command and control.

BROWN: When you talk about command and control, what are you talking about, by the way?

CLARK: These are headquarters and reporting locations, sector headquarters, overall national headquarters, the nodes where the fiber optics and the radio relays and the high frequency radios, and the telephones come together, where Iraqi officers sit and they assign missiles to fire particular aircraft, or they warn - they monitor radio communications and they try to tell particular units they're about to be attacked.

We want to take out his command and control system, so these units, whether they're surface to air missile firing batteries or republican guards divisions, are isolated on the battlefield, receiving no effective instructions.

BROWN: All right, general, I have a feeling that we're going to be doing this conversation in real time, as we look at events in Iraq before the week is out. It's good to talk to you. Thank you, sir.

CLARK: Thanks, Aaron. Good to be with you.

BROWN: General Wesley Clark, who's in Little Rock tonight. More on Iraq before this hour is up. Some of the other things that have made news today coming up next, the latest on the Elizabeth Smart case. An amazing assertion by the father of her alleged kidnapper. And the story of a deadly form of pneumonia and the scare it has thrown into American health officials and others. For the CNN Center in Atlanta, this NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The piece of irony in the Elizabeth Smart case, at Christmastime, her parents were interviewed by John Walsh of "America's Most Wanted," talking about a different man they suspected in the kidnapping, someone who had done a bit of work one day at their home in Salt Lake. And it appears as they were doing that, that Elizabeth was spending her Christmas with that same man, Brian Mitchell, along with his wife, Wandee Barzee.

CNN affiliate KUSI in San Diego has found some video of what looks to be the trio at a Christmas day charity dinner. That's one glimpse at Brian Mitchell at least.

Jeanne Meserve got another today from his father, who gave her a most unsettling look at a very troubled life.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Since Brian Mitchell's arrest for the abduction of Elizabeth Smart, his father has written a time line of events that might help explain how his son ended up here.

SHIRL MITCHELL, BRIAN MITCHELL'S FATHER: Like the guy falling off a skyscraper, he can't reverse the direction of gravity.

MESERVE: The list begins with an accidental conception, a difficult birth, suspicions that Brian might have been abused in day care, and goes on to catalogue their own troubled relationship, the time he hit Brian with a hose and another incident when Brian was 12.

MITCHELL: I just drove out to Rose Park and said now Brian, you're on your own.

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell says Brian was a tease and a tormentor, who had an intense rivalry with a younger sister, Lori.

MITCHELL: He was always being isolated and singled out as an odd one, a black sheep.

MESERVE: Was he an odd one?

MITCHELL: Yes. Yes.

MESERVE: Shirl is a self confessed voyeur, who has written two volumes about his personal theology that are full of explicit sexual content. He admits showing his 7 or 8 year old son pictures of human genitalia. And he believes his erotic literature contributed to an episode of indecent exposure one day after school when Brian was a teenager.

MITCHELL: And then this little girl walks into the house, you know. And I don't know how she got there, but she did. And he's the only one there, and then goes and tells her daddy that Brian showed his privates to her.

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell says that though there may be an explanation for what his son has done, there is no justification. But he says, his son's action should be put in perspective.

MITCHELL: How many of these things, degenerates, take little kids and dismember their bodies or kill them outright and bury them? Now they -- when they're getting to be overcritical of Brian, they should remember that. They're continuing to say see, he's a monster for taking away a minor, but they got to back up a little and realize compared to these other things, he's a saint.

MESERVE: As he sifts through his son's life, trying to find explanations, what happy memories can Shirl recall?

MITCHELL: Hmm, well you know with all the other things I've said, it's hard to find one.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MESERVE: Shirl Mitchell has not visited his son in jail and says he doesn't have any plans to do so. The two have never been close, but Shirl Mitchell says he feels partially responsible for what has happened to his son. And he wants to help by explaining as best he can his troubled past. Aaron?

BROWN: When do we see Mr. Mitchell? When is the arraignment, if there's an arraignment?

MESERVE: We don't know that yet. We know there have been a lot of meetings over the weekend between prosecutors and investigators, investigators working through both Saturday and Sunday, putting this case together. We don't know when there will be arraignments here or possibly also in Salt Lake County, where Mitchell's name has been brought up in connection with a possible abduction of one of Elizabeth's cousins.

BROWN: Jeanne, thank you, Jeanne Meserve in Salt Lake.

Just about five miles or so from where we are, this is a busy weekend as well. Biologists at the Centers for Disease Control has a bug on their hands, causing a lot of trouble in many parts of the world. Mostly in Southeast Asia. The symptoms look a lot like pneumonia. A number of people have already died. Lots of people are afraid. And the best anyone can tell, the disease has yet to make an appearance in this country. Nobody is taking any chances. And yes, they are asking that question, too.

Dr. Jeffrey Kaplan is with us now. He's former director at the CDC just up the road from here. He's not at Emory University and vice president in Health Sciences.

Nice to see you. Is it pneumonia? This has gone through Hong Kong. I know I saw something the other day that they're very concerned about a Hong Kong, that corner of the world. Is it pneumonia?

JEFFREY KAPLAN, FMR. CDC DIRECTOR: It's unclear. I don't think there are enough specimens or clinical information at CDC, but they're trying to get as much as they can.

BROWN: If it's - are there many - I'm sorry, are there many different pneumonias?

KAPLAN: Well, there are many different organisms, bugs, bacteria, viruses, that can cause pneumonia, or can cause an infection. And I think the symptoms, as they're describing are relatively high fever, and some cough, and some quite serious illness obviously with deaths. And there are a number of agents that can cause that. BROWN: And I assume, otherwise we wouldn't be sitting here talking about it, that antibiotics at this point aren't working?

KAPLAN: Well again, we - you know, we the public, nor do I believe CDC has adequate information on the cases that have occurred. There have been no cases in the U.S. And they're getting most of their information second hand at the moment, and need to get much better information to get a better handle on this.

BROWN: What happens in a situation like this, when something emerges a half a world away? And I assume that people in the public health business are - start to get nervous, want to know as much as they can. Do you get at some point like a slide? Do you get a picture of the bug? I mean, what happens?

KAPLAN: Well, I think people get intensely interested, rather than nervous.

BROWN: Yeah, okay.

KAPLAN: And what they do is, there's a fairly prescribed sequence of steps in doing an investigation like first you collect as much information you can from the people that have been saying the cases that have occurred. The ideal thing is then you get firsthand information yourself, much as any doctor would want to visit and examine a patient who is ill, a public health specialist wants to visit the scene and find out what's going on, see for themselves, and begin to try to develop a hypothesis. What are the likely possible causes for this? What bugs might cause, what viruses, what bacteria? Are there circumstances in the environment that might have led to this? And that's done by both epidemiologic investigation, asking questions, doing an investigation, also laboratory work.

BROWN: Is it - I'm going to ask this, because I know people are thinking it, and I suppose at one point or another I am, too, is it absolutely out of the question that this could have been something inflicted upon people by humans? That is to say a terrorist agent of some sort? Is that possible?

KAPLAN: I think in March of the year 2003, we exclude nothing. Nor have we for the last couple of years, that whatever event occurs, particularly if it's unusual, it has to be considered as possibly naturally occurring and possibly purposeful. And that was the case with anthrax and - recently. And it's the case with almost everything that comes up these days.

BROWN: The concern, it would seem to me, one of the concerns is that where there's a very mobile we live in, people travel from A to B all the time. That was in Hong Kong this morning could very easily be in San Francisco tonight, couldn't it?

KAPLAN: Absolutely true. Although and again, while we all worry about terrorist agents, purposeful use of these agents, we have to remember that in the past 30 years, there have been 30 new emerging infections that afflict us. So whether everything from West Nile to Toxic Shock Syndrome, the Lyme Disease, to HIV/AIDS. And we may be dealing with a new, naturally occurring infection in this instance as well.

BROWN: Just very quickly, how I won't say nervous, how interested are you right now?

KAPLAN: I think this is a subject of considerable concerns, both public health authorities, to clinical physicians and to the public.

BROWN: Good to meet you. Thanks for coming in tonight.

KAPLAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you, doctor very much.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, Sunday night, the 16th of March, we'll go for a jog in the desert with the U.S. Marines. A short break first. We're on Atlanta. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: There's a book on Amazon.com, that's Amazon.com, that gets rave reviews from those who bought it. "U.S. Marines Corps Workout." You can get a preview right now with the workout, without even buying the book. But in this case, getting in fighting shape isn't a matter of losing some extra pounds. Here, it could mean the difference between life and death.

Alessio Vinci has our latest report from the front lines. He's with the U.S. Marines in Kuwait.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ALESSIO VINCI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): To be prepared for war, everything must be in shape. The bodies of the Marines, as well as the engines of their armor. But with daytime temperatures over 85 degrees Fahrenheit and rising, a 2.5 mile run is a challenge for some of the mainly well trained Marines of (UNINTELLIGIBLE.) And there is little time left to get into shape.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sometime in the near future, we don't know when it's coming, but it's coming. We're going to be crossing a couple burhams, about 20 kilometers to the west. And it's going to be a race north.

VINCI: Lieutenant Colonel Rick Rubowsky (ph) says that race north will be as fast as his man's weakest because no one will be left behind.

RICK RUBOWSKY (ph), LIEUTENANT COLONEL, U.S. MARINES: We have to depend on each other when we go across. And I need you to reach down and grab some, and stay tough, stay strong.

VINCI: The training is also aimed at keeping morale high, not easy when you command thousands of Marines camped in tents under a blazing sun for a month, with nothing else to think about, other than going to war or returning back home.

So training also includes a final sprint race with a reward.

RUBOWSKY (ph): When the two top finishers from the country's going to get a phone call tonight to call home.

VINCI: For the winner of one of the races, the grueling exercise paid off.

BLAS JORDAN, CPL., U.S. MARINES: This means a lot, you know, because it keeps you active and it helps to take your mind off like, okay, I'm missing home, missing my wife.

VINCI (on camera): Even the toughest and the strongest have feelings. And as one senior officer here put it, their job is to keep these feelings from interfering with Marine readiness.

Alessio Vinci, CNN with the U.S. Marines in Kuwait.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: We have other stories to fit in tonight, beginning with a death in Gaza. An Israeli bulldozer killed an American woman there protesting the destruction of Palestinian houses. At least one Palestinian killed as well. Rachel Cory of Olympia, Washington was working with a Palestinian led group that protests Israeli policy. And Israeli spokesman called it "a regrettable accident" and said that the protesters are "putting everyone in danger." The other side says it is impossible in their view that the driver did not see Ms. Cory.

In Serbia today, the party of the assassinated prime minister Zoran Djindjic proposed a reform ally to take his place. Zoran Zivkovic pledged to crack down on the kinds of criminals blamed for last week's assassination. The government believes Serbian gangster bosses were behind the killing.

And across Northern Iraq, Kurds observed a moment of silence to remember the day 15 years ago when Saddam Hussein's forces attacked the city of Halabjah with mustard nerve gas. 5,000 men and women and children were killed that day. President Bush mentioned the anniversary today in his remarks after the summit in the Azores.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, we'll look at a group that is caught in the middle in any war, the children. But up next, morning papers. Tomorrow morning's papers from around the country and around the world. A short break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This is time for - do that again - time for morning papers around the country and around the world. These are the headlines you'll see tomorrow, no matter where you are. And this is my worst nightmare, because there are probably 30 of them. Almost literally, they are all the same. So how many different ways can you come with saying "Moment of Truth" to the world?

Here's "The Chicago Sun-Times," can you see it? "Moment of Truth For the World." Also the front page, "The Illini," that's Illinois, big 10 champions. I guess they picked the 64 teams for the NCAA today. Just one of those things that we missed on Sunday if we're working. "USA Today," what do you think "USA Today" said? You're over there? They said "Moment of Truth." Today is the Moment of Truth. The lead in "USA Today" if you're traveling, and I am.

Even - well not even, Aniston, Alabama, the fine folks who run the "Aniston Star" in Aniston, Alabama, a home owned newspaper. And what's their lead say? "You Got It: Moment of Truth." Not to be outdone, out west, the "San Francisco Chronicle." And what do you think "the Chronicle" led with? "Bush to U.N.: Moment of Truth."

Now you're thinking okay, but "The Boston Herald," because it's a tabloid, they'll do it differently, won't they in Boston? No, "The Boston Herald" tonight, "Moment of Truth: Bush Last Chance for Diplomacy."

Now we have a great affection for "The Detroit Free Press." And no more so ever than today because they didn't say "Moment of Truth." What did "The Free Press" of Detroit say? "Bush to," I like this headline by the way, "Bush to U.N.: Joint or Watch." I'm sure there are - oh, they put the NCAA brackets on their front page. I mean, they didn't put them all on the front page, but they note that also.

And so, how are we doing on time? 15 seconds? Here's how "The Guardian," a British newspaper, headlined this. They didn't say "moment of truth," bless them. "The Final 24 Hours." That's their headline. And that's morning papers. You can now put out a morning paper yourself. You just leave "Moment of Truth," it works every time.

Still ahead tonight, Segment 7 on NEWSNIGHT. The children of Iraq, already among the worst off in the world, and at least short term, it's not likely to get better. From CNN Center in Atlanta and around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: It's a cruel paradox of war, the children, the ones with the least to blame for any conflict are the most at risk for suffering, especially true in Iraq.

Here's CNN's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Twelve million Iraqis, half the population, are children under the age of 18. Four a million of those children are under the age of five.

CAROL BELLAMY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR U.N. CHILDRENS' FUND: Since the early '80s, Iraq has participated in and engaged in two wars. There have been over 10 years of sanctions. All of this coming together means that the impact on the children has been particularly harsh.

NISSEN: Some also blame government economic and social policies that have depressed average salaries to between $3 and $6 a month, and made Iraq's population almost wholly dependent on monthly government food rations. The impact on children has been severe. A third of Iraqi children are malnourished. A quarter have no reliable access to clean water. One of out eight children dies before the age of five, one of the worst child mortality rates in the world. Another war cannot help but make the situation worse.

BELLAMY: The victims of war are largely civilians, largely women and children. Sometimes they are outright killed or hurt or maimed, but they're victims because they're the ones who generally have to flee.

NISSEN: In anticipation of war, UNICEF has already prepositioned tons of relief supplies in Iraq and Iran and Jordan, from mobile water purification units, to emergency food packets, to clinics in a box.

BELLAMY: If there is war, the victims of the conflict need to have some kind of immediate response, basic health, basic medicines, clean water.

NISSEN: UNICEF has been working steadily in Iraq since 1983, including throughout the 1991 war. On the brink of another war, UNICEF's well established networks of local staffers are doing their best to carry on. Teams are going door to door to immunize children against polio, and have accelerated a campaign to vaccinate children against measles, a major child killer that often spreads quickly during and after a war, when large numbers of people are displaced.

BELLAMY: We try and stay out of geopolitics. I don't want to be naive. Politics plays a role in everything, but we are a humanitarian organization. We try and keep our focus on children. Children are not the enemy.

NISSEN: Although they are likely to number among the casualties, as they do whenever nations go to war.

Beth Nissen, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Good to have you with us tonight. We'll see you tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time. Good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com