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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

President Set to Address Nation Sunday on Iraq

Aired September 05, 2003 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
There's been an awful lot of talk about the realities in Iraq these days. The defense secretary said yesterday things are getting better every day and in some parts of the country that is no doubt true but it is not all of the truth and that lately has become reality as well.

Before the war the Pentagon told Congress that Iraqi reconstruction would largely be paid for by Iraqi oil revenues. Oil revenues could bring the country $50-$100 billion over two or three years, said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. The reality, according to today's "Wall Street Journal," is expected to be oil revenues of less than $12 billion next year if that.

Meanwhile, the costs are far greater than predicted in large part because security costs are greater. It is against that backdrop that Republicans have been telling the president all week he has to do something and say more. They are getting their wish and it's where we begin the whip tonight.

CNN's Dana Bash is at the White House, Dana a headline from you tonight.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the last time the president addressed the nation about Iraq it was under a banner that read "Mission Accomplished," and today the White House said the president will once again talk to Americans on Sunday night about a mission that is far from over and discuss what needs may be in the future for that mission - Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you, we'll get back to you at the top tonight.

Next to Iraq, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld touring the country, CNN's Ben Wedeman covering, Ben a headline.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes well, Aaron, Secretary Rumsfeld continues that tour to get in his words a firsthand look at how things are going but for some Iraqis alarmed at the prospect of sectarian clashes they look like they're going south.

BROWN: Ben, thank you.

On to the Atlantic, Hurricane Fabian pounding Bermuda tonight. Somewhere on that 21 square miles of land is CNN's Gary Tuchman on the phone and a headline Gary.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Aaron, Bermuda's most powerful hurricane in 77 years is now over but it took five hours to move through with winds of up to 125 miles per hour. Authorities are not sure right now if they have any casualties to contend with - Aaron.

BROWN: Gary, thank you.

And, Santa Monica, California next and more questions for candidate Schwarzenegger today, CNN's Kelly Wallace working that so Kelly a headline.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Arnold Schwarzenegger brings out some high powered ammunition to attract women voters, his wife Maria, this on a day when women activists demonstrated outside his headquarters here in Santa Monica accusing him of making sexist statements as recently as a few months ago - Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you very much, back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up tonight on the Friday edition of NEWSNIGHT, perhaps the most compelling story not to lead a newscast, the mystery in Erie, Pennsylvania, the pizza delivery man, the bank robbery, the bomb, and how all the pieces fit together or don't.

No mystery here, financial misery perhaps, with states in budget trouble, tuition at state colleges and universities are rising. Nissen takes a look at that in Segment 7.

And, we'll take a look, of course, at tomorrow morning's papers rooster and all, all that to come in the hour ahead.

We begin at the White House with the president's decision to talk to the country about Iraq on Sunday, his first televised speech nationally since declaring victory aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln last May.

After a summer of chaos, the administration this week began making adjustments on Iraq and North Korea as well, while more or less downplaying that this is a change in policy.

The changes are plain to see and perhaps the president will elaborate some on Sunday. In any case, we'll explore this all in some detail as we go, especially the political dimensions.

But we begin by heading back to the White House and CNN's Dana Bash - Dana.

BASH: Aaron, the administration says the president will speak for about 15 minutes here at the White House in the residence on Sunday night and he will discuss, according to the White House, the war on terrorism, talk about the fact that yes it is four days, will be four days at that time before the second anniversary of September 11 but the main purpose for this speech is to discuss the situation in Iraq.

What aides are saying is that he thinks it is a critical juncture in this time in Iraq. It is certainly a week where the president did decide to go back to the United Nations.

He will talk about that policy but he will also be discussing what the White House has been saying time and time again is the good news coming out of Iraq that they say simply does not get out enough.

Now, an administration official I spoke to earlier this evening said that there will be some nuggets, some announcements in there, not clear exactly what those will be but Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, said the president will also talk about the needs in the future.

And, what certainly some Republican members of Congress pressed the president on here at the White House this week was to come out early and to come out bold, as one aide put it to me about how much this is going to cost in the future. That is certainly what they are hoping the president is going to talk about how much he will ask for in the funding, in terms of funding for Iraq.

White House officials are saying that it could be in the realm of between $60 billion and $70 billion. It is unclear whether that figure will come out of the president's mouth though on Sunday night - Aaron.

BROWN: Do you expect that the president will acknowledge what the administration in some quarters has been acknowledging publicly and that is that the post-war Iraq is different, far more complicated, not nearly as successful as they thought it would be?

BASH: Unclear if he's actually going to be that candid, if you will, about the post-war situation but, as you said, the president has tried to say time and time gain that it is a difficult mission. It is a dangerous mission.

We hear that very often from him but especially what some members of Congress, who just came back to Washington from a month home with their constituents, have told the president they're very concerned about is that there is confusion about the mission that people out in America do not feel that there is clarity to the mission and certainly it's no secret that the news from Iraq was very grim during August while members of Congress were home with their constituents.

Now, what White House officials say is that the president was talking about having this speech, making this speech in August, actually on August 26. He was talking to some of his national security advisers.

He actually that day he was giving a speech in St. Louis on Iraq and at that point, according to White House Spokesman Scott McClellan, that is the time when he decided that he was going to give the speech and that also happens to be the day that the number of casualties during the combat phase in Iraq actually was less than the number of casualties after and the current situation that we are currently in. That was the exact same day - Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you very much. That's Sunday night.

As we said at the top this is a week of realities in Iraq and here's another one. The United States needs, not just wants but actually needs help from the United Nations.

It needs money to help pay the bills and it needs troops to put more of an international face on the occupation. It also needs to make peace with some old friends to all of a sudden have some pretty good cards in their hand. The task belongs to the secretary of state.

Here's CNN's David Ensor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): With the administration now lobbying U.N. Security Council members for a new resolution on Iraq, Secretary Powell said adjustments in the draft language are possible and sought to move past the bitter dispute over the Iraq War.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: Yes, it is true that we have differences with some of our oldest and most valued NATO allies but these are differences among friends. The transatlantic partnership is based so firmly on common interest and values that neither feuding personalities nor divergent perceptions can derail it.

ENSOR: At a Franco-German summit the two leaders said the American draft resolution on Iraq is a good first step but does not give up enough U.S. control of Iraq to the United Nations.

"Not far enough, so not worth talking details" said Chancellor Schroeder to which Powell responded pointedly: "It is the details he'd like to hear about from them."

POWELL: If you didn't like it in this particular form and you want to see something different then make a proposal in addition to an editorial comment.

ENSOR: But Powell's earlier speech made to students at his alma mater, George Washington University, was notable for its conciliatory tone. Responding to critics around the world who see President Bush as a go-it-alone cowboy, Powell said the U.S. is working with other nations in Afghanistan, on AIDS in Africa, encountering the nuclear ambitions of North Korea's unpredictable leader.

POWELL: We found nations with like interests to ours with respect to Korea to come together and form this six-party grouping which includes the North Koreans, a very multilateral approach to diplomacy.

ENSOR (on camera): Administration officials say Powell was not trying to signal some sort of shift in American foreign policy. He was trying to say that he believes outside of this country that policy has been much misunderstood. David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Not even Pollyanna would say this has been a good week for the administration where Iraq is concerned and it will fall on the president's shoulders on Sunday to give a rough after a rough month or two some context.

David Gergen knows of such tasks having served presidents, both Democratic and Republican, for years. Mr. Gergen joins us tonight from beautiful Cape Cod, David nice to see you.

DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: It's good to talk to you, Aaron.

BROWN: Is it a policy or political speech?

GERGEN: Oh, it's much more a political speech, Aaron. It's a classic speech, one that other presidents, President Johnson in Vietnam, President Nixon in Vietnam, President Reagan when he sent the troops in Lebanon and then things went badly and he had to explain.

This is a classic speech in which a president seeks to gain enough public support, shore up his public support at a time when there's a real threat to give himself time, time to explore other options.

In this case, this president going to the U.N. trying to see if he can rally other countries to send troops, send money to help him with a policy that clearly is floundering much more than they ever expected only a few months ago. This is a speech to buy time, shore up the support, to buy time.

BROWN: Can the president say pretty directly, candidly, look this has been more complicated than we expected it would be? Things have happened we did not anticipate. Can he say that?

GERGEN: Aaron that would be a welcome step by the president. I think the more candor the president shows in this speech the better given the background in which so many Americans are questioning whether the administration hyped the case against Iraq before the war, given that skepticism, given the questioning now that's going on.

I would think the president would be well served by being as forthright, direct, and honest with the country as he's ever been about all of this and just to lay it on the line. He had a reputation going into this war of being a straight shooter. That's why many Americans applauded his leadership.

That reputation has been somewhat damaged, I must say, by the events of recent months and this speech is an opportunity to help get him back on the line of being a guy who squares with the American people.

So, I would think the more candid he is about this is much more complicated, this is more difficult than we anticipated, the more trust people would have in him and in his policies as he goes forward.

BROWN: The examples you cited, President Reagan after Beirut, Johnson and Nixon during Vietnam, in all of those cases the message got somewhat overwhelmed by the pictures and the story lines coming out of Lebanon or Vietnam and in this case Iraq and that's one of the problems, it seems to me, the president has. How do you, if you're writing this speech, overcome the power of the story itself on the ground?

GERGEN: You can't fully. What you can ask for is people's patience and their understanding and if they feel you're leveling with them the American people tend to be very generous in their support and very patient. If they feel you're manipulating them they'll go quite the other way.

And right now, the president's had a difficult summer but, you know, it is true that George Bush has had three difficult summers in a row and he has bounced back every fall. So, I think it's entirely within the capacity of this president to bounce back here.

He has a reservoir of support. People do want him to succeed and he does also have this, Aaron. Even if for those of us who disagreed how he went into Iraq, disagreed with him in not getting the U.N. support before going in, we have to agree with him now that it's very important for the United States to succeed in Iraq.

For us to withdraw or retreat in humiliation would be a terrible blow to our position in the Middle East and would encourage more terrorism so that the Democratic candidates who debated just last night in Arizona they were mostly for him succeeding in Iraq. I think he can draw the country together on the question that we've got to stick this out.

Yes, we can go try to get more U.N. troops. I hope they succeed in that but if that fails, you know, we may have to put in more American troops and we should be prepared for that. That would be far better than failing and being kicked out of Iraq.

BROWN: Just a few seconds left, David.

GERGEN: Sure.

BROWN: How important a moment do you think this is for the president?

GERGEN: Far more important than it was only three months ago. Things are in a rough place. Now this is a - it's not a turning point but it's a critical moment where he could buy as much as three to six months time to get his policies in place and to be more successful and for a president three to six months time on something as precarious as this can be really golden. So, it's an important speech.

BROWN: David, as always, thank you very much, David Gergen who's on Cape Cod.

GERGEN: OK, Aaron, great to talk to you again. BROWN: Thank you, sir, very much.

And just a reminder we'll be in Washington on Sunday to bring you CNN's coverage of the president's speech. Our coverage begins with Paula at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, the president expected to speak about 8:30, talk for about 15 minutes or so and then we'll wrap it up.

Larry King follows that live at 9:00 Eastern time, all of that on Sunday here on CNN and we hope you'll join us for that.

On to Iraq itself now. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld whose last visit to the country had all the trappings of a victory lap today, although woe be the reporter who points it out, it is a much different, much more complicated piece of real estate.

Here's CNN's Ben Wedeman.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WEDEMAN (voice-over): This is what he said he wanted to do, get a firsthand look at how things are going. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld continued his tour of Iraq dropping in on American troops based in the town of Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's ancestral hometown.

Tikrit is one of the most troublesome spots for American forces the scene of almost daily attacks by foes of the occupation but Mr. Rumsfeld, traveling under intense security with a top secret itinerary and staying well away from ordinary Iraqis, Tikrit could not have been more welcoming. He even picked up a souvenir to take home from the 101st Airborne Brigade known as the Screaming Eagles.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On behalf of all the 21,000 soldiers up here in AOR (ph) north right now, I'd like to give you our coin. It got the Screaming Eagle patch on there and ask you to add that to your coin collection and think of the Screaming Eagles.

WEDEMAN: This is Rumsfeld's third visit to Iraq, his second since Saddam's fall.

To the south, the assassination of a senior Shiite cleric continues to reverberate. In the town of Kufa (ph), mourners gathered to pay respects to the memory of the late Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al- Hakim killed in a car bombing a week ago in Najaf along with more than 80 other people.

The bombing has ignited fears of rising friction between Shiite and Sunni Arabs, fears that were intensified by an early morning attack on a Sunni mosque in northern Baghdad.

The worshippers left the mosque after finishing prayers, recalls the imam of the mosque Whalid al-Azari. "Suddenly we heard shooting toward the congregation. Three people were injured. The mosque was full. We thank God no one was hurt. The gunman escaped after the attack." No blame was placed by the imam but many in his congregation were ready to point the finger at what they see as foreign forces with an interest in seeing their country collapse into chaos.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WEDEMAN: And, Aaron, another sign that there could be problems here, yesterday in Najaf at Friday prayers apparently there was a very large presence by Shiite militiamen on the street. That's in open violation of U.S. regulations against weapons in public and a sign that at least on the Shiite side they're beginning to arm themselves and disregard whatever the Americans are saying - Aaron.

BROWN: And, I gather there was no attempt to do anything, no attempt by the Americans at least to do anything about that?

WEDEMAN: No. Their policy in Najaf, Aaron, has been from really the beginning is to stay away from the middle of the city and they pulled back even further after last Friday's car bombing but what has happened is these Iraqi security on the ground, the police, really there aren't enough of them and after the concerns raised by that bomb those militias have just come right in and essentially filled the security vacuum.

BROWN: Ben, thank you very much, Ben Wedeman who is in Iraq for us tonight.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT on this Friday evening, Hurricane Fabian pounding the island of Bermuda while a separate tropical storm bears down on Florida.

And, in Pennsylvania, the continuing mystery of the man and the bank and the bomb.

From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: By law houses and buildings on the island of Bermuda must be built to withstand hurricane force winds which is comforting except that being an island in the middle of the Atlantic with a huge storm coming there's really no place to run and nothing to do but stay home and put your faith in the building code.

Hurricane Fabian hit Bermuda earlier this evening, the biggest storm in nearly eight decades and even if it turns out that no one was hurt the fear now is what things will look like when the sun comes up.

Here's CNN's Gary Tuchman.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): Bermuda hasn't been directly hit by a hurricane for 16 years, by a strong category three hurricane since 1926. MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: This is a very, very powerful hurricane that is hitting Bermuda right now. The only hurricanes they've had in recent memory have been weaker hurricanes, category one, maybe category two hurricanes.

TUCHMAN: Sixty-two thousand people live on the island that make up the British territory of Bermuda and many of them and the tourists who stayed behind came out to the beaches to watch the waves as Fabian came closer but as the winds increased to tropical storm strength and then hurricane strength respect for Mother Nature emptied the beaches.

Winds of more than 100 miles per hour gusting to 120 blasted through these normally tranquil islands for hours. An initial assessment of possible casualties and damage was very difficult to come by, the main roads in Bermuda being impassible in many points because of hundreds of fallen trees and power lines. Hurricane Fabian had found this 20 square mile spec, 700 miles off the coast of North Carolina.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: The winds are now dying down but it was five hours of hurricane force winds, much of the time over 100 miles per hour. The rain has stopped but at this point the authorities don't know what they're dealing with. They don't know how much damage, for example.

We are literally driving down the streets right now to get back to our hotel and my crew and I are acting like Paul Bunyan. We're picking up trees and moving them so we can continue driving down the roads to get to our hotel and we don't see any of the police officials out here doing that work right now.

We've talked to the police. They say they don't know how much damage there is. They also say they have no reports, and this is the good news, of any casualties; however, they say they won't be sure about that either until tomorrow.

We can tell you authorities are telling us the equivalent of the U.S. National Guard, the Bermuda Regiment, 600 members, will be out in the streets tomorrow to begin the cleanup and it will be extensive. We see hundreds of trees and we do see some roofs off of some homes - Aaron.

BROWN: Gary, thank you very much, Gary Tuchman who's in Bermuda tonight.

Compared to Hurricane Fabian, Tropical Storm Henri is, in the words of a forecaster today, just a blob. It remains off the Gulf of Mexico tonight which doesn't mean it hasn't already made a mess. It has with winds of only about 50 to 60 miles an hour. The problem for residents of Florida's west coast will be lots of rain in the days ahead and lots of flooding.

On to southern California where a roller coaster jumped the rails at Disneyland. It happened as the cars were going through a tunnel. One man died. Ten others were hurt including, as you might expect, a number of children.

And, the cause of a huge fire is under investigation, it burned through a luxury construction site in Las Vegas last night. The flames, which shot hundreds of feet in the air, destroyed about 350 units of what would have been a very (unintelligible) apartment complex.

We can only imagine the Hollywood pitch meeting, a pizza delivery man is killed after robbing a bank when the bomb, locked to his neck, that he says someone else locked to his neck explodes.

After a week of digging local police and the FBI uncover more clues about the man and the weapons, each of them leading in stranger and stranger direction. If the officers of "CSI" really existed, this would be the season ender. Instead it's real life tonight in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Here's CNN's Mike Brooks.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIKE BROOKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Moments after this bank was robbed last week in Erie, Pennsylvania, police knew they had a bomb problem. This call came in on 911.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm calling about that bank robbery at PNC Bank, downtown plaza.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, what happened?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The guy just walked out with I don't know how much cash in a bag. He had a bomb or something wrapped around his neck.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You saw him with the bomb or whatever it was?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. He's got it strapped around his neck.

BROOKS: Pizza delivery man Brian Wells was stopped a short distance away, the bomb against his chest. The "Erie Times News" reports a witness standing in the bank line right behind Wells said he asked the teller for a quarter of a million dollars in cash and when he was handed a bag with far less than that amount, Wells said he would come back later for more.

The witness said Wells was carrying a walking cane, one that investigators now say was rigged to fire just like a gun. When stopped, Wells told police that someone else had put the bomb around his neck and forced him to rob the bank. He died when the bomb went off about 40 minutes later.

This afternoon, FBI explosives examiners and the Erie Police Bomb Squad searched a garage in a residential area here. They could be seen carrying away white boxes full of evidence. The man who owns the garage told us his stepson was a friend of Brian Wells. His stepson left with the FBI but it's not clear what connection, if any, he has with the case.

(on camera): One clue as to the significance of this search examiners from the FBI explosive lab in Quantico, Virginia participated in this search.

Mike Brooks, CNN, Erie, Pennsylvania.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead a bit later on NEWSNIGHT tonight, the rising cost of higher education.

And coming up another alert about potential terrorists.

This is NEWNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Even if September 11 wasn't just around the corner next week, the words of an FBI agent today would certainly raise a chill. "He's a lot like Mohamed Atta agent," the agent said. He was talking about a suspect, one of four the FBI is looking for tonight.

Here is CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The FBI strongly suspects these four men are terrorists who could be planning to attack Americans or U.S. interests and is asking police agencies worldwide to help find them.

JOHN PISTOLE, FBI ASST. COUNTERTERRORISM DIRECTOR: The intelligence that we have indicates that they are likely operating independently of one another, which makes it more of a challenge force and also gives us reason to want to get this information out to the public and to our partners around the world.

ARENA: Information on the men came from a variety of sources, including al Qaeda detainees and overseas intelligence agencies. Their whereabouts are unknown. And there is no information suggesting any of the four is currently in the United States.

Alerts have been issued before on two of the four, Abderraouf Jdey and Adnan El Shukrijumah. Shukrijumah's family, who lives in South Florida, insists, he's got no terror connection. But the FBI describes him as a first among equals, saying he's got a lot in common with the ringleader of the September 11 attacks.

PISTOLE: He is of significant concern to us because of his similarities to Mohamed Atta in terms of his ability to, we believe, pilot an aircraft, his fluency in English, his familiarity with the United States, and his ability to use false documents perhaps to get into the United States undetected.

ARENA: Shukrijumah's ability to pilot airplanes is especially worrisome in light of the latest alert from homeland security, warning that al Qaeda maintains an interest in attacking commercial aircraft.

PISTOLE: He may be the best-suited al Qaeda operative in the world to commit such an act that we believe al Qaeda is still interested in planning.

ARENA: That's not to say law enforcement thinks Shukrijumah is the only serious player. Officials say they have information linking Karim El Mejjati to the May attacks in Casablanca.

(on camera): Officials stress, there is no information suggesting an attack is imminent or that any plan has reached an operational phase. Still, officials warn that intelligence on the floor comes on top of a mountain of information suggesting al Qaeda is planning multiple attacks against the United States.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A few more items from around the world tonight, starting with the arrest in Spain of a journalist for Al-Jazeera. You may recall he is the reporter who interviewed Osama bin Laden in October of 2001.

Spanish authorities have charged him with providing support for two members of al Qaeda, one of whom was the ringleader of the organization in Spain. The reporter denies the charges. So does Al- Jazeera. A court hearing is scheduled for Monday.

On the West Bank, a bloody exchange of gunfire in Nablus. Israeli troops killed a Hamas gunman who they had cornered in an apartment building. And an Israeli soldier died there as well. Troops later evacuated all the residents and dynamited the building. Hamas, no surprise here, is vowing revenge.

And South Korea seems to be the one place to go when you are stealing more than one, two suspects in custody accused of smuggling. They opened a cafe on American Army base in Seoul. The M.P.s say, cases of beer and wine, more than 60,000 of them, went in the front door and were smuggled out a tunnel in the back and off the base.

Later on NEWSNIGHT: morning papers from Korea and other places, too.

Next: the female backlash being faced by Arnold Schwarzenegger and other recall topics as well.

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: When Arnold Schwarzenegger makes a movie, you can pretty much guarantee who the audience is: male. But running for office means there's another 50 percent of the audience that you cannot ignore. And that's where one of his problems seems to be tonight.

Mr. Schwarzenegger has a history where women are concerned. It's one he ran in to today, though he did seem to have some plans for it.

Here's CNN's Kelly Wallace.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Women activists sending a message near Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign headquarters. The actor turned candidate, prominent women's groups say, has no place in the governor's office.

SHELLY MANDELL, NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN: He's obsessed with body parts. I really don't think that he gets it, that women are human beings that are more than their body parts.

WALLACE: They point to comments Schwarzenegger made in a 1977 interview with the French magazine "Oui."

MANDELL: Somebody needs to write him a really good script on the true portrayal of women.

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger shot back during a news conference in the heavily Republican orange county, saying he has the utmost respect for women.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: You should just go and talk to the women that I work with.

WALLACE: And those 1977 comments, he says, were all designed to help bodybuilding, not hurt women.

SCHWARZENEGGER: We tried to get attention and headlines and I would say things that many times were exaggerated or not true or so, just to get the headlines. But the fact of the matter is you got to forget about the '70s. I was a different person then.

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger refused to say more.

California's recent polls don't necessarily show any gender gap, but some political observers say the Hollywood superhero may have a problem, mainly with Republican women supporters, if more controversial statements are uncovered.

RAPHAEL SONENSHEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST: Not like in the entertainment industry, where you can shrug it all off. The voters sometimes feel when it accumulates too much, it's easier just to stay at home or to vote against.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger's aides call this -- quote -- "the puke politics that Californians will reject." And they say they are confident that Schwarzenegger will attract many women to his campaign, especially now that Maria Shriver is greatly increasing her profile -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you -- Kelly Wallace out in Los Angeles tonight.

Also from Los Angeles to give us his perspective on the recall with just a bit more than four weeks to go before the election, Mickey Kaus of "Slate" magazine.

Good to have you with us tonight.

MICKEY KAUS, SLATE.COM: Thanks, Aaron.

BROWN: It is still -- I was sort of laughed at on our morning call today, but it is still pretty much Schwarzenegger's to win or lose, isn't it?

KAUS: I think so.

He has spent a very long time getting up to speed, but I think he believes in a late entrance -- that's he making a late entrance as a person versed in policy specifics. He talked about workman's comp yesterday. So he's finally gearing up. And I do think it's his to lose or his to win.

BROWN: To this point, to this point, has he had a better day than the day he announced?

KAUS: Yes.

I think his economic press conference was a very good day, because he seemed at ease and commanding. And remember, there had been a drought of Arnold appearances before then. So he comes in at the last minute. He seems better than expected. That seems to be his technique, to wait, wait, wait and then make a last-minute star entrance. So I think that was a good day. And there was the bikini wax joke on "Jay Leno" that wasn't so good.

BROWN: Is he following the script? Does he seem to do what his handlers want him to do in the way that they want him to do it?

KAUS: Not quite.

I am sure they would like him to have been better versed earlier. He says he's not -- doesn't want quick decisions; he wants the right decisions. And that seems honest. He doesn't pretend that he's somebody like Ronald Reagan, who knew what he wanted to do from the day he declared his candidacy. He doesn't pretend he's not a neophyte learning the ropes. So I think he's in charge and sometimes probably frustrates his handlers.

BROWN: Does he still seem to Californians, or to an observer of Californians, if you will, to be an outsider candidate?

KAUS: I think so.

Look at the way both the establishments of the Democratic Party and the conservative base of the Republican Party still haven't cottoned to him. He's trying to do this very unusual thing, which is drive a Mack truck or a Hummer right up the middle of road. And he could get squeezed by both sides, because both sides really have not accepted him. He hasn't established this sort of bandwagon effect, where everybody is piling on board and he has 60 percent of the vote. That has not happened for him.

BROWN: So the fund-raising flap earlier, where he said, "I wasn't going to take -- I'm not going to take special interest money, but I will take powerful interest money," that's not being seen as just political double-talk?

KAUS: It is, but it's being seen as neophyte political double- talk.

I think he sincerely thinks that somehow his donors are not special interests, but the other guy's donors are. And, of course, that's what every politician thinks. And he doesn't realize that's what every politician thinks. So it's a dumb rookie's mistake. But I think people have sort of forgiven him for it, because he is such an obvious novice. And he seems, actually, reasonable sincere in his myopia on that one.

BROWN: This may be the first time where naivete helps the candidate.

And as for the others, there was talk -- I read a piece yesterday suggesting that maybe Governor Davis has a pretty decent shot of beating this thing. Do you agree?

KAUS: That was sort of the conventional wisdom, that Davis had a better shot of beating it than Bustamante, the Democratic candidate, had of beating Schwarzenegger.

I am not sure of that anymore, because I thought the debate on Wednesday -- there was a debate with the other candidates. Schwarzenegger didn't show up. They were all quite appealing, except for Ueberroth. And Davis sort of faded into the background. So it seems to me one of those people are going to say, I'd rather have one of those people than Davis. And Davis, remember, has a higher mathematical hurdle. He has to get 50 percent of the vote, whereas as one of those other guys can probably win with 35, 40 percent of the vote.

So I tend to think Davis is going to lose.

BROWN: Howard Dean coming out to California, I just heard, tomorrow, to campaign for Governor Davis. Will that be helpful or irrelevant at this point?

KAUS: That'll be helpful, because Davis desperately needs to rally his base. But I think he needs more than the base. That's his problem.

Bustamante, the Democrat, only needs the base, because he only needs 40 percent. Davis really needs to reach across the middle. And I don't know if Howard Dean or even Bill Clinton is the man to do that. BROWN: Mickey, it's good to have you on the program. I hope you'll come back. Your take on this has been really interesting to us, as lots of other people have seen this thing, it seems to me, through different eyes. And it's good to hear yours.

KAUS: Thanks.

BROWN: Thank you, Mickey Kaus of "Slate" magazine, or of "Slate," I guess.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT: trying to pay for college when the costs keeps going up and up. It must be segment seven, and it is. And it will be after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Back when I was dropping out of college, tuition was about $100 a quarter. A friend who's just gone back to school told me that one of her textbooks costs almost that much. And that's just part of the inflation. And in a time when the economy is soft, unemployment uncomfortably high, and wages flat, the cost of getting an education is soaring.

Here's NEWSNIGHT's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the grim new joke on campus: No wonder they call it higher education. Tuition is sharply higher this year at state colleges and universities across the U.S.

JONI FINNEY, NATIONAL CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND HIGHER EDUCATION: When state appropriations for higher education are cut, tuition tends to go up. We try to replace that revenue by charging student and families more money.

NISSEN: Tuition and fee increases are the highest in a decade at state universities in every region of the country. At the University of North Carolina, in-state tuition is up 5.5 percent; the University of Colorado at Boulder up 12.7 percent; the University of Virginia up 19 percent; and the University of California's system up more than 39 percent.

The 64 schools in the State University of New York's system are typical. They raised tuition after the state legislature cut their budget by 20 percent.

SHIRLEY STRUM KENNY, PRESIDENT, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY: Tuition went up $950, from $3,400 to $4,350, a 28 percent increase.

NISSEN: Stony Brook's president says a tuition hike, the first in seven years, was the university's only real alternative.

KENNY: If we didn't raise tuition, we would have to limit what we offer to our students. NISSEN: Still, the increase has hit students hard.

JACQUELINE PASCARIELLO, DIRECTOR OF FINANCIAL AID, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY: We have been inundated with phone calls from parents and students, asking, what are going to we do about this increase?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How much would you ask for in a loan?

NISSEN: What most students are going to do is take out more loans, add to their debt burden, which, for most state university graduates, already averages between $16,000 and $20,000.

JOSH LARRAMORE, STUDENT: I'm going for financial aid, Stanford loans. I'm trying to get TAP, maybe some grants. So the grants you don't have to pay back, but everything else, you do.

NISSEN: Like two-thirds of all college students, many here already work part-time. Most say they will now have to scrounge for more work hours in a bleak job market.

RYAN CRABTREE, STUDY: I was probably working 12 to 16 hours a week before, whenever I was available. And now, I will probably be working 24 to 32 hours.

NISSEN: Working more hours cuts into study time, cuts class time, which can delay graduation.

OSMILDA DELROSARIO, STUDENT: This might mean that, instead of taking me four years, it's going to probably take me five, six years.

NISSEN: Stony Brook's president worries that higher tuition will cause students to postpone college.

KENNY: It is a hardship that some students will decide they can't come to college now. And not coming now may mean not coming forever.

NISSEN: When qualified student's delay going to college or don't go at all, educators say it affects the labor force, the national economy, the country's stability.

FINNEY: Seventy-eight to 80 percent of all students enrolled in higher education are enrolled in public institutions. So it really is the gateway to the middle class for many, many Americans.

NISSEN: The toll at that gate is likely to go even higher. Many educators expect, state colleges and universities will have to raise tuition again next year.

Beth Nissen, CNN, Stony Brook, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: We'll take a break. Morning papers when we are back.

This is NEWSNIGHT. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(ROOSTER CROWING)

BROWN: Well, you won't be hearing that for a couple days, and I know that breaks your heart.

Time to check morning papers from around the country and around the world. IFB just went out again, guys, so that you know.

We begin with "The Boston Herald." "It's a Circus" is the lead. Two stories on the priest sex abuse. "Priest Docs Under DA Probe." Prosecutors are looking at whether doctors did not report, as they are supposed to, abused children, children abused by priests. And "Tiff Halts Talks With O'Malley." O'Malley is the archbishop in Boston, Sean O'Malley. Two lawyers in a spat over the settlement there. So a big meeting was canceled.

Oh, I have to mention this. "Pedro, Sluggers Crush Yanks." OK, I have that out of my system now.

This is the quote of the day, by the way. I will get off this paper in a second. "Day Trip Just Ticket to Hit"; $135 Million Jackpot, OK? An 80-year-old Watertown grandpa won the lottery. And he says, "I wish I was 30 years younger." Yes, I'll bet he does.

"The Chicago Sun-Times." It will splendid, by the way, in Chicago tomorrow. I think it's always splendid. "Gangs in Armor." It's not illegal to wear bulletproof vests. Well, it shouldn't be, should it? I don't think it should be illegal. And that has cops worried, though. I understand why that would be so.

By the way, I don't know if you notice that. It says, "Mural over-line goes up here." That won't actually appear in your paper. That's just a placeholder and that's a good -- we appreciate that, that they would send us an incomplete paper. We hope other papers do that, too. It doesn't have to be perfect, OK? We'll use it. We won't point these things out. Well, I guess we did.

"Miami Herald." "Scores of Aging Schools in Miami to Get Repairs. A $1 Billion Maintenance Crisis Confronts District." A pretty good local story at the top of the Saturday paper, and an absolutely fabulous picture -- take that shot, will you? -- of the hurricane, Hurricane Fabian, as it was right over Bermuda. That is just -- I find those things amazing to look at. You can see the eye of that hurricane and everything.

"The Detroit News" also leads local. "Marlinga" -- I hope I pronounced that right -- "Campaign Donations" -- but I miss pronounced campaign -- "Donations Probe: Grand Jury Officials Look for Signs of Influence." A pretty good local story. And a pretty good headline here. "Bin Laden Dodges Efforts to Settle Score," a look at the search, so far unsuccessful, of trying to find Osama bin Laden. And what else? Anything else? No, not really.

The dalai lama in San Francisco leads the "San Francisco Chronicle" tomorrow. It is not part of recall election, as some people around the office were speculating. And the Schwarzenegger story. "Actor Hammers on His Ability to Lead." This is a pretty good quote. This is Mr. Schwarzenegger: "Everybody keeps talking about details, details, details. Sacramento has warehouses of details. What they lack is leadership and backbone." That's a pretty good quote or sound bite.

How we doing on time?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ten.

BROWN: Ten. Perfect. I had nothing else to say, anyway, except, have a great weekend.

We'll see you Sunday night 8:00, a preview of the president's speech. We hope you'll join us for that. Have a great weekend and good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 5, 2003 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
There's been an awful lot of talk about the realities in Iraq these days. The defense secretary said yesterday things are getting better every day and in some parts of the country that is no doubt true but it is not all of the truth and that lately has become reality as well.

Before the war the Pentagon told Congress that Iraqi reconstruction would largely be paid for by Iraqi oil revenues. Oil revenues could bring the country $50-$100 billion over two or three years, said Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. The reality, according to today's "Wall Street Journal," is expected to be oil revenues of less than $12 billion next year if that.

Meanwhile, the costs are far greater than predicted in large part because security costs are greater. It is against that backdrop that Republicans have been telling the president all week he has to do something and say more. They are getting their wish and it's where we begin the whip tonight.

CNN's Dana Bash is at the White House, Dana a headline from you tonight.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the last time the president addressed the nation about Iraq it was under a banner that read "Mission Accomplished," and today the White House said the president will once again talk to Americans on Sunday night about a mission that is far from over and discuss what needs may be in the future for that mission - Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you, we'll get back to you at the top tonight.

Next to Iraq, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld touring the country, CNN's Ben Wedeman covering, Ben a headline.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes well, Aaron, Secretary Rumsfeld continues that tour to get in his words a firsthand look at how things are going but for some Iraqis alarmed at the prospect of sectarian clashes they look like they're going south.

BROWN: Ben, thank you.

On to the Atlantic, Hurricane Fabian pounding Bermuda tonight. Somewhere on that 21 square miles of land is CNN's Gary Tuchman on the phone and a headline Gary.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Aaron, Bermuda's most powerful hurricane in 77 years is now over but it took five hours to move through with winds of up to 125 miles per hour. Authorities are not sure right now if they have any casualties to contend with - Aaron.

BROWN: Gary, thank you.

And, Santa Monica, California next and more questions for candidate Schwarzenegger today, CNN's Kelly Wallace working that so Kelly a headline.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Arnold Schwarzenegger brings out some high powered ammunition to attract women voters, his wife Maria, this on a day when women activists demonstrated outside his headquarters here in Santa Monica accusing him of making sexist statements as recently as a few months ago - Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you very much, back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up tonight on the Friday edition of NEWSNIGHT, perhaps the most compelling story not to lead a newscast, the mystery in Erie, Pennsylvania, the pizza delivery man, the bank robbery, the bomb, and how all the pieces fit together or don't.

No mystery here, financial misery perhaps, with states in budget trouble, tuition at state colleges and universities are rising. Nissen takes a look at that in Segment 7.

And, we'll take a look, of course, at tomorrow morning's papers rooster and all, all that to come in the hour ahead.

We begin at the White House with the president's decision to talk to the country about Iraq on Sunday, his first televised speech nationally since declaring victory aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln last May.

After a summer of chaos, the administration this week began making adjustments on Iraq and North Korea as well, while more or less downplaying that this is a change in policy.

The changes are plain to see and perhaps the president will elaborate some on Sunday. In any case, we'll explore this all in some detail as we go, especially the political dimensions.

But we begin by heading back to the White House and CNN's Dana Bash - Dana.

BASH: Aaron, the administration says the president will speak for about 15 minutes here at the White House in the residence on Sunday night and he will discuss, according to the White House, the war on terrorism, talk about the fact that yes it is four days, will be four days at that time before the second anniversary of September 11 but the main purpose for this speech is to discuss the situation in Iraq.

What aides are saying is that he thinks it is a critical juncture in this time in Iraq. It is certainly a week where the president did decide to go back to the United Nations.

He will talk about that policy but he will also be discussing what the White House has been saying time and time again is the good news coming out of Iraq that they say simply does not get out enough.

Now, an administration official I spoke to earlier this evening said that there will be some nuggets, some announcements in there, not clear exactly what those will be but Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, said the president will also talk about the needs in the future.

And, what certainly some Republican members of Congress pressed the president on here at the White House this week was to come out early and to come out bold, as one aide put it to me about how much this is going to cost in the future. That is certainly what they are hoping the president is going to talk about how much he will ask for in the funding, in terms of funding for Iraq.

White House officials are saying that it could be in the realm of between $60 billion and $70 billion. It is unclear whether that figure will come out of the president's mouth though on Sunday night - Aaron.

BROWN: Do you expect that the president will acknowledge what the administration in some quarters has been acknowledging publicly and that is that the post-war Iraq is different, far more complicated, not nearly as successful as they thought it would be?

BASH: Unclear if he's actually going to be that candid, if you will, about the post-war situation but, as you said, the president has tried to say time and time gain that it is a difficult mission. It is a dangerous mission.

We hear that very often from him but especially what some members of Congress, who just came back to Washington from a month home with their constituents, have told the president they're very concerned about is that there is confusion about the mission that people out in America do not feel that there is clarity to the mission and certainly it's no secret that the news from Iraq was very grim during August while members of Congress were home with their constituents.

Now, what White House officials say is that the president was talking about having this speech, making this speech in August, actually on August 26. He was talking to some of his national security advisers.

He actually that day he was giving a speech in St. Louis on Iraq and at that point, according to White House Spokesman Scott McClellan, that is the time when he decided that he was going to give the speech and that also happens to be the day that the number of casualties during the combat phase in Iraq actually was less than the number of casualties after and the current situation that we are currently in. That was the exact same day - Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you very much. That's Sunday night.

As we said at the top this is a week of realities in Iraq and here's another one. The United States needs, not just wants but actually needs help from the United Nations.

It needs money to help pay the bills and it needs troops to put more of an international face on the occupation. It also needs to make peace with some old friends to all of a sudden have some pretty good cards in their hand. The task belongs to the secretary of state.

Here's CNN's David Ensor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): With the administration now lobbying U.N. Security Council members for a new resolution on Iraq, Secretary Powell said adjustments in the draft language are possible and sought to move past the bitter dispute over the Iraq War.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: Yes, it is true that we have differences with some of our oldest and most valued NATO allies but these are differences among friends. The transatlantic partnership is based so firmly on common interest and values that neither feuding personalities nor divergent perceptions can derail it.

ENSOR: At a Franco-German summit the two leaders said the American draft resolution on Iraq is a good first step but does not give up enough U.S. control of Iraq to the United Nations.

"Not far enough, so not worth talking details" said Chancellor Schroeder to which Powell responded pointedly: "It is the details he'd like to hear about from them."

POWELL: If you didn't like it in this particular form and you want to see something different then make a proposal in addition to an editorial comment.

ENSOR: But Powell's earlier speech made to students at his alma mater, George Washington University, was notable for its conciliatory tone. Responding to critics around the world who see President Bush as a go-it-alone cowboy, Powell said the U.S. is working with other nations in Afghanistan, on AIDS in Africa, encountering the nuclear ambitions of North Korea's unpredictable leader.

POWELL: We found nations with like interests to ours with respect to Korea to come together and form this six-party grouping which includes the North Koreans, a very multilateral approach to diplomacy.

ENSOR (on camera): Administration officials say Powell was not trying to signal some sort of shift in American foreign policy. He was trying to say that he believes outside of this country that policy has been much misunderstood. David Ensor, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Not even Pollyanna would say this has been a good week for the administration where Iraq is concerned and it will fall on the president's shoulders on Sunday to give a rough after a rough month or two some context.

David Gergen knows of such tasks having served presidents, both Democratic and Republican, for years. Mr. Gergen joins us tonight from beautiful Cape Cod, David nice to see you.

DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: It's good to talk to you, Aaron.

BROWN: Is it a policy or political speech?

GERGEN: Oh, it's much more a political speech, Aaron. It's a classic speech, one that other presidents, President Johnson in Vietnam, President Nixon in Vietnam, President Reagan when he sent the troops in Lebanon and then things went badly and he had to explain.

This is a classic speech in which a president seeks to gain enough public support, shore up his public support at a time when there's a real threat to give himself time, time to explore other options.

In this case, this president going to the U.N. trying to see if he can rally other countries to send troops, send money to help him with a policy that clearly is floundering much more than they ever expected only a few months ago. This is a speech to buy time, shore up the support, to buy time.

BROWN: Can the president say pretty directly, candidly, look this has been more complicated than we expected it would be? Things have happened we did not anticipate. Can he say that?

GERGEN: Aaron that would be a welcome step by the president. I think the more candor the president shows in this speech the better given the background in which so many Americans are questioning whether the administration hyped the case against Iraq before the war, given that skepticism, given the questioning now that's going on.

I would think the president would be well served by being as forthright, direct, and honest with the country as he's ever been about all of this and just to lay it on the line. He had a reputation going into this war of being a straight shooter. That's why many Americans applauded his leadership.

That reputation has been somewhat damaged, I must say, by the events of recent months and this speech is an opportunity to help get him back on the line of being a guy who squares with the American people.

So, I would think the more candid he is about this is much more complicated, this is more difficult than we anticipated, the more trust people would have in him and in his policies as he goes forward.

BROWN: The examples you cited, President Reagan after Beirut, Johnson and Nixon during Vietnam, in all of those cases the message got somewhat overwhelmed by the pictures and the story lines coming out of Lebanon or Vietnam and in this case Iraq and that's one of the problems, it seems to me, the president has. How do you, if you're writing this speech, overcome the power of the story itself on the ground?

GERGEN: You can't fully. What you can ask for is people's patience and their understanding and if they feel you're leveling with them the American people tend to be very generous in their support and very patient. If they feel you're manipulating them they'll go quite the other way.

And right now, the president's had a difficult summer but, you know, it is true that George Bush has had three difficult summers in a row and he has bounced back every fall. So, I think it's entirely within the capacity of this president to bounce back here.

He has a reservoir of support. People do want him to succeed and he does also have this, Aaron. Even if for those of us who disagreed how he went into Iraq, disagreed with him in not getting the U.N. support before going in, we have to agree with him now that it's very important for the United States to succeed in Iraq.

For us to withdraw or retreat in humiliation would be a terrible blow to our position in the Middle East and would encourage more terrorism so that the Democratic candidates who debated just last night in Arizona they were mostly for him succeeding in Iraq. I think he can draw the country together on the question that we've got to stick this out.

Yes, we can go try to get more U.N. troops. I hope they succeed in that but if that fails, you know, we may have to put in more American troops and we should be prepared for that. That would be far better than failing and being kicked out of Iraq.

BROWN: Just a few seconds left, David.

GERGEN: Sure.

BROWN: How important a moment do you think this is for the president?

GERGEN: Far more important than it was only three months ago. Things are in a rough place. Now this is a - it's not a turning point but it's a critical moment where he could buy as much as three to six months time to get his policies in place and to be more successful and for a president three to six months time on something as precarious as this can be really golden. So, it's an important speech.

BROWN: David, as always, thank you very much, David Gergen who's on Cape Cod.

GERGEN: OK, Aaron, great to talk to you again. BROWN: Thank you, sir, very much.

And just a reminder we'll be in Washington on Sunday to bring you CNN's coverage of the president's speech. Our coverage begins with Paula at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, the president expected to speak about 8:30, talk for about 15 minutes or so and then we'll wrap it up.

Larry King follows that live at 9:00 Eastern time, all of that on Sunday here on CNN and we hope you'll join us for that.

On to Iraq itself now. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld whose last visit to the country had all the trappings of a victory lap today, although woe be the reporter who points it out, it is a much different, much more complicated piece of real estate.

Here's CNN's Ben Wedeman.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WEDEMAN (voice-over): This is what he said he wanted to do, get a firsthand look at how things are going. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld continued his tour of Iraq dropping in on American troops based in the town of Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's ancestral hometown.

Tikrit is one of the most troublesome spots for American forces the scene of almost daily attacks by foes of the occupation but Mr. Rumsfeld, traveling under intense security with a top secret itinerary and staying well away from ordinary Iraqis, Tikrit could not have been more welcoming. He even picked up a souvenir to take home from the 101st Airborne Brigade known as the Screaming Eagles.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On behalf of all the 21,000 soldiers up here in AOR (ph) north right now, I'd like to give you our coin. It got the Screaming Eagle patch on there and ask you to add that to your coin collection and think of the Screaming Eagles.

WEDEMAN: This is Rumsfeld's third visit to Iraq, his second since Saddam's fall.

To the south, the assassination of a senior Shiite cleric continues to reverberate. In the town of Kufa (ph), mourners gathered to pay respects to the memory of the late Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al- Hakim killed in a car bombing a week ago in Najaf along with more than 80 other people.

The bombing has ignited fears of rising friction between Shiite and Sunni Arabs, fears that were intensified by an early morning attack on a Sunni mosque in northern Baghdad.

The worshippers left the mosque after finishing prayers, recalls the imam of the mosque Whalid al-Azari. "Suddenly we heard shooting toward the congregation. Three people were injured. The mosque was full. We thank God no one was hurt. The gunman escaped after the attack." No blame was placed by the imam but many in his congregation were ready to point the finger at what they see as foreign forces with an interest in seeing their country collapse into chaos.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WEDEMAN: And, Aaron, another sign that there could be problems here, yesterday in Najaf at Friday prayers apparently there was a very large presence by Shiite militiamen on the street. That's in open violation of U.S. regulations against weapons in public and a sign that at least on the Shiite side they're beginning to arm themselves and disregard whatever the Americans are saying - Aaron.

BROWN: And, I gather there was no attempt to do anything, no attempt by the Americans at least to do anything about that?

WEDEMAN: No. Their policy in Najaf, Aaron, has been from really the beginning is to stay away from the middle of the city and they pulled back even further after last Friday's car bombing but what has happened is these Iraqi security on the ground, the police, really there aren't enough of them and after the concerns raised by that bomb those militias have just come right in and essentially filled the security vacuum.

BROWN: Ben, thank you very much, Ben Wedeman who is in Iraq for us tonight.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT on this Friday evening, Hurricane Fabian pounding the island of Bermuda while a separate tropical storm bears down on Florida.

And, in Pennsylvania, the continuing mystery of the man and the bank and the bomb.

From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: By law houses and buildings on the island of Bermuda must be built to withstand hurricane force winds which is comforting except that being an island in the middle of the Atlantic with a huge storm coming there's really no place to run and nothing to do but stay home and put your faith in the building code.

Hurricane Fabian hit Bermuda earlier this evening, the biggest storm in nearly eight decades and even if it turns out that no one was hurt the fear now is what things will look like when the sun comes up.

Here's CNN's Gary Tuchman.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): Bermuda hasn't been directly hit by a hurricane for 16 years, by a strong category three hurricane since 1926. MAX MAYFIELD, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: This is a very, very powerful hurricane that is hitting Bermuda right now. The only hurricanes they've had in recent memory have been weaker hurricanes, category one, maybe category two hurricanes.

TUCHMAN: Sixty-two thousand people live on the island that make up the British territory of Bermuda and many of them and the tourists who stayed behind came out to the beaches to watch the waves as Fabian came closer but as the winds increased to tropical storm strength and then hurricane strength respect for Mother Nature emptied the beaches.

Winds of more than 100 miles per hour gusting to 120 blasted through these normally tranquil islands for hours. An initial assessment of possible casualties and damage was very difficult to come by, the main roads in Bermuda being impassible in many points because of hundreds of fallen trees and power lines. Hurricane Fabian had found this 20 square mile spec, 700 miles off the coast of North Carolina.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: The winds are now dying down but it was five hours of hurricane force winds, much of the time over 100 miles per hour. The rain has stopped but at this point the authorities don't know what they're dealing with. They don't know how much damage, for example.

We are literally driving down the streets right now to get back to our hotel and my crew and I are acting like Paul Bunyan. We're picking up trees and moving them so we can continue driving down the roads to get to our hotel and we don't see any of the police officials out here doing that work right now.

We've talked to the police. They say they don't know how much damage there is. They also say they have no reports, and this is the good news, of any casualties; however, they say they won't be sure about that either until tomorrow.

We can tell you authorities are telling us the equivalent of the U.S. National Guard, the Bermuda Regiment, 600 members, will be out in the streets tomorrow to begin the cleanup and it will be extensive. We see hundreds of trees and we do see some roofs off of some homes - Aaron.

BROWN: Gary, thank you very much, Gary Tuchman who's in Bermuda tonight.

Compared to Hurricane Fabian, Tropical Storm Henri is, in the words of a forecaster today, just a blob. It remains off the Gulf of Mexico tonight which doesn't mean it hasn't already made a mess. It has with winds of only about 50 to 60 miles an hour. The problem for residents of Florida's west coast will be lots of rain in the days ahead and lots of flooding.

On to southern California where a roller coaster jumped the rails at Disneyland. It happened as the cars were going through a tunnel. One man died. Ten others were hurt including, as you might expect, a number of children.

And, the cause of a huge fire is under investigation, it burned through a luxury construction site in Las Vegas last night. The flames, which shot hundreds of feet in the air, destroyed about 350 units of what would have been a very (unintelligible) apartment complex.

We can only imagine the Hollywood pitch meeting, a pizza delivery man is killed after robbing a bank when the bomb, locked to his neck, that he says someone else locked to his neck explodes.

After a week of digging local police and the FBI uncover more clues about the man and the weapons, each of them leading in stranger and stranger direction. If the officers of "CSI" really existed, this would be the season ender. Instead it's real life tonight in Erie, Pennsylvania.

Here's CNN's Mike Brooks.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIKE BROOKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Moments after this bank was robbed last week in Erie, Pennsylvania, police knew they had a bomb problem. This call came in on 911.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm calling about that bank robbery at PNC Bank, downtown plaza.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, what happened?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The guy just walked out with I don't know how much cash in a bag. He had a bomb or something wrapped around his neck.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You saw him with the bomb or whatever it was?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. He's got it strapped around his neck.

BROOKS: Pizza delivery man Brian Wells was stopped a short distance away, the bomb against his chest. The "Erie Times News" reports a witness standing in the bank line right behind Wells said he asked the teller for a quarter of a million dollars in cash and when he was handed a bag with far less than that amount, Wells said he would come back later for more.

The witness said Wells was carrying a walking cane, one that investigators now say was rigged to fire just like a gun. When stopped, Wells told police that someone else had put the bomb around his neck and forced him to rob the bank. He died when the bomb went off about 40 minutes later.

This afternoon, FBI explosives examiners and the Erie Police Bomb Squad searched a garage in a residential area here. They could be seen carrying away white boxes full of evidence. The man who owns the garage told us his stepson was a friend of Brian Wells. His stepson left with the FBI but it's not clear what connection, if any, he has with the case.

(on camera): One clue as to the significance of this search examiners from the FBI explosive lab in Quantico, Virginia participated in this search.

Mike Brooks, CNN, Erie, Pennsylvania.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead a bit later on NEWSNIGHT tonight, the rising cost of higher education.

And coming up another alert about potential terrorists.

This is NEWNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Even if September 11 wasn't just around the corner next week, the words of an FBI agent today would certainly raise a chill. "He's a lot like Mohamed Atta agent," the agent said. He was talking about a suspect, one of four the FBI is looking for tonight.

Here is CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The FBI strongly suspects these four men are terrorists who could be planning to attack Americans or U.S. interests and is asking police agencies worldwide to help find them.

JOHN PISTOLE, FBI ASST. COUNTERTERRORISM DIRECTOR: The intelligence that we have indicates that they are likely operating independently of one another, which makes it more of a challenge force and also gives us reason to want to get this information out to the public and to our partners around the world.

ARENA: Information on the men came from a variety of sources, including al Qaeda detainees and overseas intelligence agencies. Their whereabouts are unknown. And there is no information suggesting any of the four is currently in the United States.

Alerts have been issued before on two of the four, Abderraouf Jdey and Adnan El Shukrijumah. Shukrijumah's family, who lives in South Florida, insists, he's got no terror connection. But the FBI describes him as a first among equals, saying he's got a lot in common with the ringleader of the September 11 attacks.

PISTOLE: He is of significant concern to us because of his similarities to Mohamed Atta in terms of his ability to, we believe, pilot an aircraft, his fluency in English, his familiarity with the United States, and his ability to use false documents perhaps to get into the United States undetected.

ARENA: Shukrijumah's ability to pilot airplanes is especially worrisome in light of the latest alert from homeland security, warning that al Qaeda maintains an interest in attacking commercial aircraft.

PISTOLE: He may be the best-suited al Qaeda operative in the world to commit such an act that we believe al Qaeda is still interested in planning.

ARENA: That's not to say law enforcement thinks Shukrijumah is the only serious player. Officials say they have information linking Karim El Mejjati to the May attacks in Casablanca.

(on camera): Officials stress, there is no information suggesting an attack is imminent or that any plan has reached an operational phase. Still, officials warn that intelligence on the floor comes on top of a mountain of information suggesting al Qaeda is planning multiple attacks against the United States.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A few more items from around the world tonight, starting with the arrest in Spain of a journalist for Al-Jazeera. You may recall he is the reporter who interviewed Osama bin Laden in October of 2001.

Spanish authorities have charged him with providing support for two members of al Qaeda, one of whom was the ringleader of the organization in Spain. The reporter denies the charges. So does Al- Jazeera. A court hearing is scheduled for Monday.

On the West Bank, a bloody exchange of gunfire in Nablus. Israeli troops killed a Hamas gunman who they had cornered in an apartment building. And an Israeli soldier died there as well. Troops later evacuated all the residents and dynamited the building. Hamas, no surprise here, is vowing revenge.

And South Korea seems to be the one place to go when you are stealing more than one, two suspects in custody accused of smuggling. They opened a cafe on American Army base in Seoul. The M.P.s say, cases of beer and wine, more than 60,000 of them, went in the front door and were smuggled out a tunnel in the back and off the base.

Later on NEWSNIGHT: morning papers from Korea and other places, too.

Next: the female backlash being faced by Arnold Schwarzenegger and other recall topics as well.

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: When Arnold Schwarzenegger makes a movie, you can pretty much guarantee who the audience is: male. But running for office means there's another 50 percent of the audience that you cannot ignore. And that's where one of his problems seems to be tonight.

Mr. Schwarzenegger has a history where women are concerned. It's one he ran in to today, though he did seem to have some plans for it.

Here's CNN's Kelly Wallace.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLY WALLACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Women activists sending a message near Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign headquarters. The actor turned candidate, prominent women's groups say, has no place in the governor's office.

SHELLY MANDELL, NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN: He's obsessed with body parts. I really don't think that he gets it, that women are human beings that are more than their body parts.

WALLACE: They point to comments Schwarzenegger made in a 1977 interview with the French magazine "Oui."

MANDELL: Somebody needs to write him a really good script on the true portrayal of women.

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger shot back during a news conference in the heavily Republican orange county, saying he has the utmost respect for women.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: You should just go and talk to the women that I work with.

WALLACE: And those 1977 comments, he says, were all designed to help bodybuilding, not hurt women.

SCHWARZENEGGER: We tried to get attention and headlines and I would say things that many times were exaggerated or not true or so, just to get the headlines. But the fact of the matter is you got to forget about the '70s. I was a different person then.

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger refused to say more.

California's recent polls don't necessarily show any gender gap, but some political observers say the Hollywood superhero may have a problem, mainly with Republican women supporters, if more controversial statements are uncovered.

RAPHAEL SONENSHEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST: Not like in the entertainment industry, where you can shrug it all off. The voters sometimes feel when it accumulates too much, it's easier just to stay at home or to vote against.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALLACE: Schwarzenegger's aides call this -- quote -- "the puke politics that Californians will reject." And they say they are confident that Schwarzenegger will attract many women to his campaign, especially now that Maria Shriver is greatly increasing her profile -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelly, thank you -- Kelly Wallace out in Los Angeles tonight.

Also from Los Angeles to give us his perspective on the recall with just a bit more than four weeks to go before the election, Mickey Kaus of "Slate" magazine.

Good to have you with us tonight.

MICKEY KAUS, SLATE.COM: Thanks, Aaron.

BROWN: It is still -- I was sort of laughed at on our morning call today, but it is still pretty much Schwarzenegger's to win or lose, isn't it?

KAUS: I think so.

He has spent a very long time getting up to speed, but I think he believes in a late entrance -- that's he making a late entrance as a person versed in policy specifics. He talked about workman's comp yesterday. So he's finally gearing up. And I do think it's his to lose or his to win.

BROWN: To this point, to this point, has he had a better day than the day he announced?

KAUS: Yes.

I think his economic press conference was a very good day, because he seemed at ease and commanding. And remember, there had been a drought of Arnold appearances before then. So he comes in at the last minute. He seems better than expected. That seems to be his technique, to wait, wait, wait and then make a last-minute star entrance. So I think that was a good day. And there was the bikini wax joke on "Jay Leno" that wasn't so good.

BROWN: Is he following the script? Does he seem to do what his handlers want him to do in the way that they want him to do it?

KAUS: Not quite.

I am sure they would like him to have been better versed earlier. He says he's not -- doesn't want quick decisions; he wants the right decisions. And that seems honest. He doesn't pretend that he's somebody like Ronald Reagan, who knew what he wanted to do from the day he declared his candidacy. He doesn't pretend he's not a neophyte learning the ropes. So I think he's in charge and sometimes probably frustrates his handlers.

BROWN: Does he still seem to Californians, or to an observer of Californians, if you will, to be an outsider candidate?

KAUS: I think so.

Look at the way both the establishments of the Democratic Party and the conservative base of the Republican Party still haven't cottoned to him. He's trying to do this very unusual thing, which is drive a Mack truck or a Hummer right up the middle of road. And he could get squeezed by both sides, because both sides really have not accepted him. He hasn't established this sort of bandwagon effect, where everybody is piling on board and he has 60 percent of the vote. That has not happened for him.

BROWN: So the fund-raising flap earlier, where he said, "I wasn't going to take -- I'm not going to take special interest money, but I will take powerful interest money," that's not being seen as just political double-talk?

KAUS: It is, but it's being seen as neophyte political double- talk.

I think he sincerely thinks that somehow his donors are not special interests, but the other guy's donors are. And, of course, that's what every politician thinks. And he doesn't realize that's what every politician thinks. So it's a dumb rookie's mistake. But I think people have sort of forgiven him for it, because he is such an obvious novice. And he seems, actually, reasonable sincere in his myopia on that one.

BROWN: This may be the first time where naivete helps the candidate.

And as for the others, there was talk -- I read a piece yesterday suggesting that maybe Governor Davis has a pretty decent shot of beating this thing. Do you agree?

KAUS: That was sort of the conventional wisdom, that Davis had a better shot of beating it than Bustamante, the Democratic candidate, had of beating Schwarzenegger.

I am not sure of that anymore, because I thought the debate on Wednesday -- there was a debate with the other candidates. Schwarzenegger didn't show up. They were all quite appealing, except for Ueberroth. And Davis sort of faded into the background. So it seems to me one of those people are going to say, I'd rather have one of those people than Davis. And Davis, remember, has a higher mathematical hurdle. He has to get 50 percent of the vote, whereas as one of those other guys can probably win with 35, 40 percent of the vote.

So I tend to think Davis is going to lose.

BROWN: Howard Dean coming out to California, I just heard, tomorrow, to campaign for Governor Davis. Will that be helpful or irrelevant at this point?

KAUS: That'll be helpful, because Davis desperately needs to rally his base. But I think he needs more than the base. That's his problem.

Bustamante, the Democrat, only needs the base, because he only needs 40 percent. Davis really needs to reach across the middle. And I don't know if Howard Dean or even Bill Clinton is the man to do that. BROWN: Mickey, it's good to have you on the program. I hope you'll come back. Your take on this has been really interesting to us, as lots of other people have seen this thing, it seems to me, through different eyes. And it's good to hear yours.

KAUS: Thanks.

BROWN: Thank you, Mickey Kaus of "Slate" magazine, or of "Slate," I guess.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT: trying to pay for college when the costs keeps going up and up. It must be segment seven, and it is. And it will be after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Back when I was dropping out of college, tuition was about $100 a quarter. A friend who's just gone back to school told me that one of her textbooks costs almost that much. And that's just part of the inflation. And in a time when the economy is soft, unemployment uncomfortably high, and wages flat, the cost of getting an education is soaring.

Here's NEWSNIGHT's Beth Nissen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's the grim new joke on campus: No wonder they call it higher education. Tuition is sharply higher this year at state colleges and universities across the U.S.

JONI FINNEY, NATIONAL CENTER FOR PUBLIC POLICY AND HIGHER EDUCATION: When state appropriations for higher education are cut, tuition tends to go up. We try to replace that revenue by charging student and families more money.

NISSEN: Tuition and fee increases are the highest in a decade at state universities in every region of the country. At the University of North Carolina, in-state tuition is up 5.5 percent; the University of Colorado at Boulder up 12.7 percent; the University of Virginia up 19 percent; and the University of California's system up more than 39 percent.

The 64 schools in the State University of New York's system are typical. They raised tuition after the state legislature cut their budget by 20 percent.

SHIRLEY STRUM KENNY, PRESIDENT, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY: Tuition went up $950, from $3,400 to $4,350, a 28 percent increase.

NISSEN: Stony Brook's president says a tuition hike, the first in seven years, was the university's only real alternative.

KENNY: If we didn't raise tuition, we would have to limit what we offer to our students. NISSEN: Still, the increase has hit students hard.

JACQUELINE PASCARIELLO, DIRECTOR OF FINANCIAL AID, STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY: We have been inundated with phone calls from parents and students, asking, what are going to we do about this increase?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How much would you ask for in a loan?

NISSEN: What most students are going to do is take out more loans, add to their debt burden, which, for most state university graduates, already averages between $16,000 and $20,000.

JOSH LARRAMORE, STUDENT: I'm going for financial aid, Stanford loans. I'm trying to get TAP, maybe some grants. So the grants you don't have to pay back, but everything else, you do.

NISSEN: Like two-thirds of all college students, many here already work part-time. Most say they will now have to scrounge for more work hours in a bleak job market.

RYAN CRABTREE, STUDY: I was probably working 12 to 16 hours a week before, whenever I was available. And now, I will probably be working 24 to 32 hours.

NISSEN: Working more hours cuts into study time, cuts class time, which can delay graduation.

OSMILDA DELROSARIO, STUDENT: This might mean that, instead of taking me four years, it's going to probably take me five, six years.

NISSEN: Stony Brook's president worries that higher tuition will cause students to postpone college.

KENNY: It is a hardship that some students will decide they can't come to college now. And not coming now may mean not coming forever.

NISSEN: When qualified student's delay going to college or don't go at all, educators say it affects the labor force, the national economy, the country's stability.

FINNEY: Seventy-eight to 80 percent of all students enrolled in higher education are enrolled in public institutions. So it really is the gateway to the middle class for many, many Americans.

NISSEN: The toll at that gate is likely to go even higher. Many educators expect, state colleges and universities will have to raise tuition again next year.

Beth Nissen, CNN, Stony Brook, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: We'll take a break. Morning papers when we are back.

This is NEWSNIGHT. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(ROOSTER CROWING)

BROWN: Well, you won't be hearing that for a couple days, and I know that breaks your heart.

Time to check morning papers from around the country and around the world. IFB just went out again, guys, so that you know.

We begin with "The Boston Herald." "It's a Circus" is the lead. Two stories on the priest sex abuse. "Priest Docs Under DA Probe." Prosecutors are looking at whether doctors did not report, as they are supposed to, abused children, children abused by priests. And "Tiff Halts Talks With O'Malley." O'Malley is the archbishop in Boston, Sean O'Malley. Two lawyers in a spat over the settlement there. So a big meeting was canceled.

Oh, I have to mention this. "Pedro, Sluggers Crush Yanks." OK, I have that out of my system now.

This is the quote of the day, by the way. I will get off this paper in a second. "Day Trip Just Ticket to Hit"; $135 Million Jackpot, OK? An 80-year-old Watertown grandpa won the lottery. And he says, "I wish I was 30 years younger." Yes, I'll bet he does.

"The Chicago Sun-Times." It will splendid, by the way, in Chicago tomorrow. I think it's always splendid. "Gangs in Armor." It's not illegal to wear bulletproof vests. Well, it shouldn't be, should it? I don't think it should be illegal. And that has cops worried, though. I understand why that would be so.

By the way, I don't know if you notice that. It says, "Mural over-line goes up here." That won't actually appear in your paper. That's just a placeholder and that's a good -- we appreciate that, that they would send us an incomplete paper. We hope other papers do that, too. It doesn't have to be perfect, OK? We'll use it. We won't point these things out. Well, I guess we did.

"Miami Herald." "Scores of Aging Schools in Miami to Get Repairs. A $1 Billion Maintenance Crisis Confronts District." A pretty good local story at the top of the Saturday paper, and an absolutely fabulous picture -- take that shot, will you? -- of the hurricane, Hurricane Fabian, as it was right over Bermuda. That is just -- I find those things amazing to look at. You can see the eye of that hurricane and everything.

"The Detroit News" also leads local. "Marlinga" -- I hope I pronounced that right -- "Campaign Donations" -- but I miss pronounced campaign -- "Donations Probe: Grand Jury Officials Look for Signs of Influence." A pretty good local story. And a pretty good headline here. "Bin Laden Dodges Efforts to Settle Score," a look at the search, so far unsuccessful, of trying to find Osama bin Laden. And what else? Anything else? No, not really.

The dalai lama in San Francisco leads the "San Francisco Chronicle" tomorrow. It is not part of recall election, as some people around the office were speculating. And the Schwarzenegger story. "Actor Hammers on His Ability to Lead." This is a pretty good quote. This is Mr. Schwarzenegger: "Everybody keeps talking about details, details, details. Sacramento has warehouses of details. What they lack is leadership and backbone." That's a pretty good quote or sound bite.

How we doing on time?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ten.

BROWN: Ten. Perfect. I had nothing else to say, anyway, except, have a great weekend.

We'll see you Sunday night 8:00, a preview of the president's speech. We hope you'll join us for that. Have a great weekend and good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

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