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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Pakistani Army in Standoff With al Qaeda

Aired March 19, 2004 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again, everyone. Good morning here. It is Saturday morning in Islamabad on an important day.
War is always messy business and so much of what we talk about today is about war, the war that is going on behind us in the mountains of Pakistan, the war in Iraq.

The Bush administration has always argued they are one in the same. Not everyone agrees with that and not simply for political reasons. Counterterrorism experts will say they are quite different wars.

Tonight, we'll take a look at the broader war on terror, where we've come, where we still have to go, but we'll also take a look at the events on the ground, the battle raging here in Pakistan and a bloody and difficult week in Baghdad and Iraq.

We begin the whip tonight with our Senior International Correspondent on the ground in Pakistan CNN's Nic Robertson, Nic a headline.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the question for the Pakistani military is will they turn this into a long drawn out standoff or will they go in and take al Qaeda head on?

BROWN: Nic, thank you. We'll get to you at the top tonight.

Next to the White House, the president made a major speech on the war on terror, an update on the war in Iraq. Dana Bash with the duty tonight, Dana a headline from you.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, more than 80 countries were represented in the audience here today. The president's call was for a broader coalition, a broader sense of unity in the war on terrorism because he said every nation is vulnerable -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you.

Next onto Baghdad. Walt Rodgers with the duty early on a Saturday morning there. Walt, on the anniversary and beyond, a headline tonight.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron on the first anniversary of the war in Iraq, Secretary of State Colin Powell was back in Baghdad again trying to persuade an increasingly skeptical world that this war was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you.

And finally a broader look at the war on terror an update if you will, from Kelli Arena, Kelli a headline from you.

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Iraq is the primary front in the war on terror but as the recent Madrid bombings show both the fronts and the tactics are changing.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you. We'll get double duty from you and we'll get back to all of you as we go.

Also coming up on the program tonight, Jeff Greenfield on the political side of the war on terror, was the war with Iraq a distraction? This will be a major political issue.

And later, one of the more intriguing and perhaps honest characters we've met along the way over the last year, a young soldier on the eve of war and the fears that he openly expressed, all that and more in the hour ahead.

But we begin here in Pakistan on the front line of a country in the war on terrorism, the battle between extremism and moderation, what exists in so many different places.

Certainly Iraq is part of that conversation but what is going on in the mountains behind us, this battle with, oh perhaps, 400 al Qaeda fighters and the Pakistani Army is pivotal.

Whether Ayman al-Zawahiri is there or not is a question we will try and sort out as we go but first the battle itself, how it's being fought and CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): Using heavy artillery overnight backed up by Cobra attack helicopters and troops by day, Pakistani military officials claim to be stepping up their pressure on as many as 400 al Qaeda members holed up in mud built compounds near the Afghan border.

MAJ. GEN. SHOUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: They have actually underestimated the resistance that they will face. That is why probably they were not in that much strength so they actually barged into a hardened terrorist den.

ROBERTSON: Burned out army trucks an indication of the ferocity of the fight so far, itself Pakistani officials believe an indication the al Qaeda fighters are protecting a high value target.

Although Pakistani officials won't say publicly who they think they may have, privately Pakistani intelligence and military sources still maintain what CNN first reported Thursday that intercepts and interrogations indicate Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, is surrounded by thousands of Pakistani troops.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And Nic is here with us now. Nic, let me try and do a couple of quick ones. Are they any more confident today or are they less confident today that al-Zawahiri is actually in there?

ROBERTSON: From the press briefing they gave, the Pakistani military gave yesterday, they really avoided again like all officials here going on record and saying he's there. Behind the scenes privately that's what we're being told repeatedly. No one behind the scenes is backing away from that.

BROWN: They have, they talked about giving them 48 hours to surrender. I don't think anybody in their heart of hearts actually believes that surrender is on the table so why do we have any sense are they holding on?

ROBERTSON: There are a lot of people still in that area. It's not clear to the Pakistani authorities when they gave a four hour window for a lot of people in that area, a lot of tribal people to get their families out of the way of harm, how many people actually got out of the way, so there is a -- there is a concern by the authorities here are the tribes people there safe? Are they out of the way? Can they proceed with the battle?

BROWN: Nic, we're always glad to see you, never more so than today. Thank you, Nic Robertson who is with us in Pakistan.

ROBERTSON: Thank you.

BROWN: To Washington next where now in addition to the complication of the occupation of Iraq holding the alliance together is getting to be very tricky business.

Spain last week, South Korea has made uncomfortable noises from the administration's point of view, the head of the Polish government made uncomfortable noises today about his country's role in all of this and whether it felt it was misled. So the president on an important occasion addressing the foreign dignitaries who had gathered with him in Washington had a lot to deal with.

From the White House tonight, White House Correspondent Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH (voice-over): On the year anniversary of the Iraq war that divided America and key allies, a call for unity on the broader war on terrorism.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There can be no separate peace with a terrorist enemy. Any sign of weakness or retreat simply validates terrorist violence and invites more violence for all nations.

BASH: Last week's attack in Spain, the subsequent political defeat of an ally there, and deadly bombings in Iraq have the administration working to keep a shaky U.S.-led coalition together. The president cited attacks from Saudi Arabia to Russia warning every nation is vulnerable.

BUSH: Each attack is designed to demoralize our people and divide us from one another.

BASH: In the White House East Room, officials from more than 80 nations, including France, Germany and Russia who actively opposed the Iraq war. Mr. Bush said all now agree Saddam Hussein's removal makes the Middle East more safe.

BUSH: Those differences belong to the past.

BASH: But differences remain. France's foreign minister said Friday the world is a more dangerous place because of the Iraq war. Though security is still a problem, the transition to democracy facing challenges, the president called the day one year ago he ordered air strikes a day of deliverance.

BUSH: Who would prefer that Saddam's torture chambers still be open? Who would wish that more mass graves were still being filled?

BASH: Only a passing reference to weapons of mass destruction, the central argument for war not yet found. Democrats immediately criticized the president for continuing to tie the war in Iraq to the war on terror.

WESLEY CLARK, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We distracted ourselves from the focus on terrorism to go into Iraq to a mission that I believe the Bush administration believed was sort of a low-hanging fruit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: But the president running for reelection on his wartime credentials has good reason to link the two issues. Polls show a vast majority of Americans support his efforts against terrorism but they are divided on whether or not the war in Iraq was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, things we've seen from here I'm curious if there's been reaction there. The South Koreans are balking at sending troops into an area where the Americans want them to go. The Polish leader saying he believed he had been misled about Iraq. Is the administration either publicly or in the corridors saying anything about either?

BASH: Well, I'll tell you what they're doing, Aaron. From the president on down they're making phone calls. They're working behind the scenes to make sure that the coalition does stick together, to make sure that South Korea, for example, keeps their troops there, certainly Poland keeps their troops there and even hoping that perhaps Spain might turn around.

They are really working hard the diplomatic channels to do that. As a matter of fact, the president talked to the leader of Poland today and made it very clear, they made it clear at the White House here that they are going to keep their troops there. They are certainly concerned they tell us privately and they are doing what they can privately to say the same thing that they're saying publicly.

BROWN: Dana, thank you very much, Dana Bash at the White House tonight.

Two nights ago on this program when we spoke with Secretary of State Powell, he reinforced a notion that we'd heard before that Americans have to be realistic about the expectations of what sorts of democracies can grow in places like Afghanistan, not all that far from here, and certainly in Iraq.

It won't be like the Founding Fathers, Secretary Powell said, back in 1776. At the same time what has happened there this week looks anything but democratic. It has been a messy, bloody, deadly anniversary week.

From Baghdad this morning here's CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): On this first anniversary of the Iraq War, the U.S. Secretary of State was in Baghdad again defending the American-led invasion and occupation.

Meeting with U.S. soldiers, Secretary Powell reaffirmed the American commitment to rebuilt a democratic Iraq in the post Saddam era. In his words, what we are doing is right.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: There are those who are determined to stop us. They don't want Iraqis to be free. They don't want Iraqis to have democracy. They don't want women to have freedom in their own society.

RODGERS: Powell had a private meeting with Paul Bremer, the man leading the reconstruction effort in Iraq, this amid increasing evidence the U.S.-led coalition of the willing is becoming less and less willing. South Korea said it has canceled plans to send 3,000 troops to Kirkuk due to security concerns. The Spanish are pulling out.

Later, Secretary Powell was confronted with a question claiming there was no terrorism in Iraq until the Americans invaded and that the world is actually less safe now. The secretary appeared to sidestep.

POWELL: This is not the time to say let's stop what we're doing and pull back and not run and hide and think that it won't come and get us.

RODGERS: Secretary Powell's most awkward moment was when many Arab journalists walked out of his news conference in protest of the killing of two Arab TV journalists at an American military checkpoint Thursday. Powell promised an investigation of the incident. On Baghdad streets, there was this protest marking the anniversary of the invasion a year ago, demonstrators shouting no to Saddam and no to America. It wasn't the way it was supposed to be, an increasingly hostile Arab street. A year ago, U.S. soldiers came here believing they were liberators.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS: Those here in Iraq are saying they're having a very difficult time getting their message across to the Iraqi people -- Aaron.

BROWN: I'm curious if the secretary, if the general view there is that the secretary's visit was positive that it's being viewed positively on the streets of Baghdad.

RODGERS: I think increasingly less so. The problem here in Baghdad is that the Americans are responsible for security in this country under international law and the Americans have not been doing a grade A job of providing that security.

Basically, the Iraqis want their country back. They want elections. They say they're ready for it. The Americans say they're not and the Iraqis want the Americans to leave -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you, Walt Rodgers in Baghdad.

In fairness on the American side, Baghdad is an enormous city. Iraq is a huge country. It's hard to provide a kind of absolute security in an environment that doesn't exist there.

Ahead on the program tonight we will get the latest information imaginable from the leading spokesman for the Pakistani military who has joined us here in Islamabad.

And later, the story of Private Polanco, a young man who did the best he could despite his fears. What's happened to him since the war with Iraq?

From Islamabad and around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We want to get a late read on the battle that is going on around the village of Wana up in this mountainous area of Pakistan between the al Qaeda forces and the Pakistani Army.

Major General Sultan is the principal spokesman for the Pakistani Army. It's good to see you again, sir. We heard reports that today the army is going to launch a major attack, is that correct?

MAJ. GEN. SHAUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: In fact it's for the past two days that in the area where we feel that there is a hardened den of the terrorists and also their local supporters that has been effectively sanitized. It has been cordoned and the army should not take long to flush it out and maybe, I can't give the exact plans, but it should be very soon that we would like to clear it.

BROWN: Do you think another day, 48 hours, more than that?

SULTAN: I will say soon.

BROWN: OK. We have heard reports that some of the Pakistani paramilitaries, not the regular army, have switched sides in this. Is there any truth to that?

SULTAN: There is no question that people will switch sides. Everyone in Pakistan is loyal to the state. That has to be very well understood. These are just propaganda reports plus side warfare and maybe it's only the enemies of Pakistan who are going to spread such like rumors. There is no truth in these. I strongly dismiss these rumors.

BROWN: Do you and does the Pakistani military believe today, as you and I are talking, that Ayman al-Zawahiri is up in that group?

SULTAN: Well, from the type of resistance that we get and the kind of preparations that they have made of their den it's fair to assume that there would be some high value target there. I can't name the target.

BROWN: You've taken prisoners. You've interrogates some of those prisoners. Have any of those prisoners said al-Zawahiri is there?

SULTAN: Well, we have taken prisoners. Most of them are foreigners and we have interrogated them as well. As the operation goes on the kind of information that we get from the prisoners can't be shared as it will have impact on the ongoing operations.

BROWN: I understand. We have heard reports that your side, the Pakistani military side has taken some significant casualties in the last 24 hours. Do you, can you put any numbers on that at this point?

SULTAN: There are no casualties of the Pakistan Army in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: The Pakistani Army has not suffered any casualties at all?

SULTAN: There are none in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: Previous to that?

SULTAN: Well there may be some. We will give out the details once we are over with the operation.

BROWN: Someone described the situation to us earlier as the al Qaeda terrorists occupy the high ground and that's making in just the most basic military way this whole operation more complicated, is that true?

SULTAN: Well, it's not totally true that they occupy the high ground and the troops they are at the lower grounds. That's not correct. The troops have cordoned the area and ensured that the troops occupy the high ground and inside, if at all, there are high grounds with the terrorists they will be cleared. We have the means to clear those.

BROWN: No one can ever say anything I suppose with 100 percent certainty but how much certainty do you feel that those 200, 300, 400 al Qaeda fighters, however many are there, cannot escape?

SULTAN: I think with a great certainty I can say that they cannot escape. The kind of sanitization of the area that we have done and the surveillance means I am quite sure.

BROWN: Do you believe they'll surrender?

SULTAN: Either they'll surrender or they'll get eliminated.

BROWN: General, it's good to see you again. We've seen you a lot over the last few days. Thank you again for your time.

SULTAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you, General Sultan.

Next up on NEWSNIGHT, we'll take a broader look at the war on terror. There have been victories. There have been defeats. There have been changes in tactics and methods and we'll look at all of that.

From around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Reporting from Pakistan these last several days has given us a truly vivid perspective on both the promise and the complications of fighting the war on terror.

We want to take a step back, perhaps several steps back, and look at it more from the big picture side, not just as it appears to us here in Pakistan but as it looks around the world.

Filing for us tonight, CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA (voice-over): There is no better place than Iraq to illustrate the new multidimensional terror threat.

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: The al Qaeda are coming into Iraq or the al Qaeda affiliates are coming into Iraq because they know that Iraq is a central front in the war on terrorism.

ARENA: Officials say Islamist fighters have crossed into Iraq from Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Most are affiliated with a variety of autonomous terror groups but all are bound by a common goal to disrupt the transfer of power to the new Iraqi government. The situation in Iraq serves as a microcosm for what is going on globally on the terror front, which experts define as a growing jihad movement.

BRUCE HOFFMAN, RAND CORP.: This is a constellation of like- minded terrorists and violently inclined individuals there that depending on the circumstances cooperate with one another, share information, share weapons, share intelligence.

ARENA: Investigators are seeing new alliances and new tactics, as evidenced by last week's train attacks in Madrid.

MATT LEVITT, FORMER FBI ANALYST: A lot of people thought the Madrid attacks were not al Qaeda because they were not suicide bombs. That's a shift in target, a shift in tactic.

ARENA: Officials say attacks this past year in Riyadh, Istanbul, and most recently Madrid show continued resolve and an ability to recruit. They say there are related cells all over the world in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

GEORGE TENET, CIA DIRECTOR: The steady spread of Osama bin Laden's anti-American sentiment through the wider Sunni extremist movement and through the broad dissemination of al Qaeda's destructive expertise ensures that a serious threat will remain for the foreseeable future with or without al Qaeda in the picture.

ARENA: And for every terror leader that is eliminated there is another in the wings. Take, for example, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Officials say he is one of the masterminds behind the attacks in Iraq and believe he may have been connected to attacks in Europe as well.

HOFFMAN: He's become a leading figure in the jihadist movement like bin Laden in that respect because of his own self promotion.

ARENA: Experts say the terror movement is a movement of ideas not individuals and the evolving nature of that movement makes it even harder to measure success.

LEVITT: The bottom line is terrorism has always existed and in some form it will always exist. The question is can we constrict the operating environment enough so that terrorism is squished back down into some type of tolerable level where it is not the highest issue on our national security priorities?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA: Those on the front lines in this war say that is possible if the United States, like the terrorists, constantly changes its tactics and strategies -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelli, do people that you talk to, the counterterrorism people you talk to, express openly I guess that there are limitations to what the military side of this could do and then at some point you have to attack this problem both politically and economically? You have to attack the ideas. ARENA: Absolutely, Aaron, and that's what makes this so complicated. You can't completely seal borders. You can't completely round up everyone who has any anti-American sentiment. This is a can of worms they say that has to be opened from the inside.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you and we actually will be seeing you a little bit later in the program tonight. Thank you very much, Kelli Arena.

Steve Coll joins us now. He is a seasoned journalist in this part of the world, an author of "Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001." Steve joins us from Washington tonight. It's good to have you with us.

Just a micro question and then we'll broaden this out a bit. Based on what you know of al-Zawahiri is it conceivable to you that he would allow himself to be trapped in an area where he had no escape route?

STEVE COLL, "WASHINGTON POST" MANAGING EDITOR: It seems unlikely, although it's hard to know where he might have been surprised as this operation unfolded. He's been quite mobile obviously for the last two years and even before that for several years.

He has deep experience in moving and (unintelligible) in those very mountainous areas. He's moved in and out of them quite confidently for five years and he's quite well connected in the local networks, both the Islamist networks and the tribal networks, so he presumably has lots of options when he finds himself in something of a corner like this.

BROWN: So, just briefly, so you think they've got him in a corner or do you think that may be a bit overblown?

COLL: Well, your reporting has been very good on this. The Pakistanis clearly believe that they've got evidence of his presence in these adobe compounds. In Washington, officials are more cautious.

Nobody is ruling out the idea that there's a high value target, as the jargon has it, in this area but there's less confidence that it's Zawahiri himself. There are a dozen or more leaders who are less well know who might galvanize this kind of resistance.

BROWN: Let's take, Steve, a broader view here. I think there is a view among a lot of counterterrorism people that one of the things that both the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have done is caused this movement to sort of metastasize, to spread on its own into a million or hundreds or dozens of different forms and, in a sense, make it worse. Do you subscribe to that?

COLL: Well, whether it's worse or not is difficult to judge.

But the sort of spatial description that you provide and that Kelli highlighted in her report I think is correct. Al Qaeda really was such an organization even before September 11. By the time you get to 2001, it had metastasized globally. It had developed connections to regional militant movements that originally been involved in local national struggles, sometimes religious, political struggles.

Suddenly, they were increasingly infected by the al Qaeda vision. And I think one aspect of this description that you've developed that is important goes beyond the structure of the groups and toward their theory of what they're trying to accomplish. And what brings them together to make them so dangerous is their vision of inflicting mass casualties against the West. That's a new feature of the terrorism that al Qaeda has developed and tried to model in a way on September 11.

It used to be that terrorists tried to create theatrical events for national causes. Now all these regional groups that might have pursued that method earlier seek shock events defined by mass casualties.

BROWN: Well, let me play that back, to make sure I understand it. General Abizaid, when I talked to him the other day, said, ultimately, what they want is a kind of domination of countries. They want a religious, political domination. What you're talking about, it seems to me, is, tactically, they want to go about that by killing as many Westerners as they can.

COLL: By killing as many nonbelievers as they can. That's right.

I think the end is a vision of societies transformed by religion and political religion, as al Qaeda would define it, which means the rule of a Sunni caliphate and other sort of aspects of a futuristic, almost a fantasy vision of the way Islam would dominate countries.

But, in the interim steps, at a tactical level, they see a need to shock powerful enemies who are unshakeable without devastating events. And in the last four or five years, they have developed theories about how to do that that involve these kind of devastating strikes.

BROWN: Steve, thank you.

It seems like we have come a long way from when the Russians invaded Afghanistan and all that seems to have followed.

Steve Coll with us from Washington.

Still ahead on the program tonight, this, like so many other things, has a political equation to it in the administration's linkage with the war on terror with the war on Iraq. Jeff Greenfield with that.

We have much more from Islamabad as NEWSNIGHT continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Back home, in New York and San Francisco, there's expected over the weekend to be large anti-war demonstrations. How large? We'll wait and see as they unfold. Who participates, we'll wait and me.

There's no question that the American people, if you believe the polls -- and we do -- supported the idea of going to war with Iraq. The question now is why, how the war was sold, what the country was told. Was it led or was it misled? That is going to be a central question in the political campaign ahead.

Here's CNN's Jeff Greenfield

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): January 2003, as the U.S. prepares for war with Iraq, President Bush spells out the link between Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and a terrorist threat to the United States.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda. Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own.

GREENFIELD: March 2004, in a speech the 101st Airborne Thursday, the link has become a possibility, but one the president says he could not ignore.

BUSH: I had a choice to make, either take the word of a madman or take such threats seriously and defend America. Faced with that choice, I will defend America every time.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: The president today, on the one year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war, there is no mention of weapons of mass destruction and no assertion of a direct link between Saddam and terror. Instead, the war's achievements are described this way.

BUSH: All of us can now agree that the fall of the Iraqi dictator has removed a source of violence, aggression, and instability in the Middle East.

GREENFIELD (on camera): But the argument remains. Was the war in Iraq an essential part in the battle against terror or a dangerous diversion from it?

(voice-over): American public opinion supports the idea of such a link. A survey last December showed that a majority of Americans actually believed Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the attacks of September 11.

While President Bush has never made that argument, he has repeatedly raised the specter of 9/11 as a reason for striking at Saddam.

BUSH: Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein.

GREENFIELD: By contrast, consider the comments of the incoming Spanish prime minister, elected just days after bombs killed over 200 people in Madrid. Mr. Zapatero called the Iraq war a disaster, said a policy cannot be built on lies. Hans Blix, the U.N. weapons inspection chief, said Thursday the war has actually increased the danger of terror.

And all through the primaries, Democrats argued that the Iraq war was a diversion from the war on terror. But, on Wednesday, John Kerry struck a different note. Yes, he said, the president misled Americans about the war, but there now is a terrorist danger in Iraq.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To leave too soon would leave behind a failed state that would inevitably would become a haven for terrorists, an instable state which would create its own set of problems for the Middle East itself, a problem for the region and a dangerous setback in the war against terror.

GREENFIELD (on camera): Four different times in his speech, the president read off a country-by-country list of nations as if determined to counter the impression that United States was going it alone. And by fusing a speech on Iraq with a speech about terror, the president also seemed determined to continue underlining that link, even if it is very different from the kind of link he described on the eve of war a year ago.

Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: David Sanger joins us now. David covers the White House for "The New York Times." And he is in Las Vegas.

David, it's always good to have you with us.

I think it's fair to say, if you look at the events of just the last week and a day, that it's been a tough week for the administration and it portends tougher political weeks ahead.

DAVID SANGER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": It sure does, Aaron.

The administration came into this week hoping to lay out a sequence of events to show what the war in Iraq had accomplished. On Monday, they took a number of us down to see the weapons that had been -- the nuclear facilities that had been pulled out of Libya. And all week, you have heard this progression of speeches, Vice President Cheney's, the president's today.

But what has interrupted, of course, has been the continued casualties in Iraq, but also the fact that the war has become a reminder, from the Spanish, from the leader of Poland, this anniversary has become a reminder that, while many people join in the celebration that Saddam Hussein is gone, the questions about why we conducted the war when we conducted the war are probably as alive now as they were the day the first shot was fired.

BROWN: And central to that, it would seem to me, from the president's political point of view, is, it goes to the heart of his best political asset, his credibility, the belief the American people have in him that he's a straight shooter.

SANGER: I think that's right, Aaron.

And you saw Senator Kerry, in his comments and others he's made in recent weeks, try to tie the Iraq decision with a number of other domestic statements that the president has made to try to impeach his credibility broadly. But I think the problem goes beyond that, because what's happened since the terrible terrorist events in Spain last week is that you have now seen members of the coalition begin to peel away a bit.

Obviously, the Spanish did. The comments by Poland did not indicate that they would in any way reduce their forces in Iraq, but certainly suggested that they, too, felt misled. And I think what the White House is concerned about, Aaron, is that, as the year goes on and as, of course, the handover of power to the Iraqis occurs, you could begin to see more fragmenting, peeling away of this coalition.

And I think that's why he was going to such lengths to invite in today the ambassadors from many of the coalition countries, put them in the East Room and say, we're all in this together.

BROWN: And just, David, one more political point, I guess. In some respects, it is also hard for this president, given the nature of his administration and its definition by 9/11, to change the subject if things start going badly.

SANGER: Well, it is.

And that's what -- that's one of the mysteries between now and Election Day. And one of the big concerns within the White House is what happens after we pull out the coalition provisional authority and begin to turn the governing power over to the Iraqis themselves. There is a lot of concern that that could lead to a fair bit of chaos. If it did, it would be in those months just before the election.

On the other hand, if it appears to be going smoothly, then the arguments that the president made today, that we have not only liberated Iraq, but created an island of stability from which the greater Middle East can become more democratic and stable, then I think the president can turn this very well.

BROWN: David, thank you.

There are a lot of people in this part of the world, in fact, who believe that that could happen, but they emphasize could. They're certainly not guaranteeing it.

David Sanger of "The New York Times" with us. We'll take a break. When we come back, we'll update the rest of the day's news. We'll do that from stateside.

And later in the program, one of the characters you're bound to remember from the buildup of the war, his concerns, his fears and where he is now.

From Islamabad and around the world, you are watching NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ARENA: Kelli Arena here in Washington now with a quick check of the other stories making news tonight.

The Army has dropped all charges against James Yee. Mr. Yee, you may remember, served as a chaplain at the Guantanamo Bay detention center, that is, until he was accused of espionage. He later was charged with a variety of lesser offenses instead, including mishandling classified documents, adultery and possession of pornography. He spent 76 days in custody. His marriage felt apart.

And as for why the charges were dropped, a statement from the Army says publicizing the evidence against Chaplain Yee raises security concerns.

The federal government says pregnant women, nursing mothers and young children should eat no more than one serving of canned albacore tuna a week. Research shows it contains higher levels of mercury than other varieties. And the government also warned women of child-baring age to avoid shark, swordfish, tilefish, and king mackerel because of high mercury content.

And in Miami, mother and daughter are doing fine, by the looks of it. Seven weeks ago, Alessia Di Matteo underwent transplant surgery, giving her eight new organs, including kidneys, a liver, and most of her digestive tract. She was well enough today to meet the press and her mom.

Well, on to the "Moneyline Roundup," starting tonight with a recall. The Coca-Cola is taking about half-a-million bottles of its Dasani brand water off the shelves in Great Britain, this after discovering that some bottles contained a higher-than-legal amount of the chemical compound bromate. Both Coke and the British government say there's no cause for concern.

And get this. A couple of French nutritionists say that Big Macs aren't as bad as you would imagine. Their verdict published today in a dieting guidebook says Le Big Mac is way more helpful, for instance, than quiche lorraine, better, in other words, than a pastry made of eggs, cheese, cream and bacon.

And ask people, are you happy where you work, and if they work in Los Angeles, chances are the answer will be yes. According to a survey sponsored by AOL, Angelenos are happiest in their jobs. Detroit workers are mopiest and Bostonians are happiest with their bosses. Wall Street, meantime, ended the week on a blue note, major declines across the board, pretty much the way it's been for the last couple of months.

Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT, Aaron returns from Islamabad with a look at life during and after the war for one young Marine.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: I don't think any story we did in the buildup to the war created more mail than the story of Arnaldo Polonco (ph). At first blush, he seemed more a screw-up than a Marine. But what we have learned about this young man since was that his desire to serve was second to none. And, in the process, he and the Marines and the rest of us gained a whole lot.

Here's CNN's Jason Bellini.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON BELLINI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was three days before crossing into Iraq with the U.S. Marines, and Private Arnaldo Polonco was in trouble.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look at me.

BELLINI: Polonco's superiors believed he was faking heat exhaustion. This was becoming a frequent affair, Polonco refusing to carry the same weight in his pack as his platoon mates.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's just certain things that I know that I can't do. And I can't change it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But should we be called upon to cross the border and his current actions, could that be a liability there? Yes, it could.

BELLINI: On the eve of the war, Polonco begged his superiors not to leave him behind. They didn't.

What happened to Private Polonco?

A year later, I caught up with him in New York City. He's still in uniform, now a security guard. After four years in the Marines, he got an honorable discharge. Polonco tells me he joined the military because he saw it as a way, out of a world of gangs, drugs and despair.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When I was a little kid, there used to be shootings, everything. We used to be playing baseball right here. Pop, pop, pop. You hear gunshots. And all we did was just like keep on playing baseball.

BELLINI (on camera): When you got back and you started telling your friends about what the war was like for you, what did you tell them? UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Basically, most of my friends, the only thing they wanted to know was like, how many people did you kill, this, this and that? I basically told them, no, it was just crazy. It was a lot of people dying and a lot of people not dying.

BELLINI (voice-over): For the first week of the war, Polonco was assigned to a different squad. His job, guarding other Marine's packs.

(on camera): Why were you in a different squad?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why was I in a different squad? The captain put me with a different squad because -- I have no idea.

BELLINI (voice-over): I interviewed Private Polonco once during the war for a story not about him, but about the mail that had just arrived.

(on camera): Did you get anything this time around?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not yet.

BELLINI: No?

(voice-over): Viewers responded. By the time the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit got back to ship, Polonco had hundreds of boxes of letters waiting for him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For some reason, I was the one getting the most packages. And at first, I was like, who's this? Because it was name that I have never heard of.

BELLINI: Some Marines teased it, called it pity mail. Polonco says he gave much of it away to boost the morale of others.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I would like to say thank you, too, to all those that ever sent me something. I would like to say thank you and we appreciate it.

BELLINI: Polonco says he's the only guy on his block ever to see the world.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wanted to prove to myself that I could do something that's hard in life, so that could give me buildup steps and tell me, yes, if I could do this, I could do anything.

BELLINI: And Polonco says he will forever be proud he was a U.S. Marine.

Jason Bellini, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It is a reminder to all of us, not just to Polonco, to all of us, that we never really know who we are and how we'll react until the moments we're tested. We'll wrap up our week in Pakistan in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: No matter where we are, we know what that music means.

This has been a remarkable week in many respects for us and for the program, not simply for the dignitaries we have met, General Abizaid, Secretary of State Powell, President Musharraf, but for the soldiers, the privates, the corporals, the colonels in Iraq, who, regardless of your feelings about politics and policy,are trying to do something important, and for the young people here in Pakistan who understand that they are literally on the front lines in this battle between extremism and moderation that will affect the future of all of us and all of our children.

And we wish all these people nothing but the best.

Our plan is to head home. We'll see what events decide. Until then, good night for all of us in Islamabad for NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 19, 2004 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again, everyone. Good morning here. It is Saturday morning in Islamabad on an important day.
War is always messy business and so much of what we talk about today is about war, the war that is going on behind us in the mountains of Pakistan, the war in Iraq.

The Bush administration has always argued they are one in the same. Not everyone agrees with that and not simply for political reasons. Counterterrorism experts will say they are quite different wars.

Tonight, we'll take a look at the broader war on terror, where we've come, where we still have to go, but we'll also take a look at the events on the ground, the battle raging here in Pakistan and a bloody and difficult week in Baghdad and Iraq.

We begin the whip tonight with our Senior International Correspondent on the ground in Pakistan CNN's Nic Robertson, Nic a headline.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the question for the Pakistani military is will they turn this into a long drawn out standoff or will they go in and take al Qaeda head on?

BROWN: Nic, thank you. We'll get to you at the top tonight.

Next to the White House, the president made a major speech on the war on terror, an update on the war in Iraq. Dana Bash with the duty tonight, Dana a headline from you.

DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, more than 80 countries were represented in the audience here today. The president's call was for a broader coalition, a broader sense of unity in the war on terrorism because he said every nation is vulnerable -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, thank you.

Next onto Baghdad. Walt Rodgers with the duty early on a Saturday morning there. Walt, on the anniversary and beyond, a headline tonight.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron on the first anniversary of the war in Iraq, Secretary of State Colin Powell was back in Baghdad again trying to persuade an increasingly skeptical world that this war was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you.

And finally a broader look at the war on terror an update if you will, from Kelli Arena, Kelli a headline from you.

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, Iraq is the primary front in the war on terror but as the recent Madrid bombings show both the fronts and the tactics are changing.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you. We'll get double duty from you and we'll get back to all of you as we go.

Also coming up on the program tonight, Jeff Greenfield on the political side of the war on terror, was the war with Iraq a distraction? This will be a major political issue.

And later, one of the more intriguing and perhaps honest characters we've met along the way over the last year, a young soldier on the eve of war and the fears that he openly expressed, all that and more in the hour ahead.

But we begin here in Pakistan on the front line of a country in the war on terrorism, the battle between extremism and moderation, what exists in so many different places.

Certainly Iraq is part of that conversation but what is going on in the mountains behind us, this battle with, oh perhaps, 400 al Qaeda fighters and the Pakistani Army is pivotal.

Whether Ayman al-Zawahiri is there or not is a question we will try and sort out as we go but first the battle itself, how it's being fought and CNN's Nic Robertson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): Using heavy artillery overnight backed up by Cobra attack helicopters and troops by day, Pakistani military officials claim to be stepping up their pressure on as many as 400 al Qaeda members holed up in mud built compounds near the Afghan border.

MAJ. GEN. SHOUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: They have actually underestimated the resistance that they will face. That is why probably they were not in that much strength so they actually barged into a hardened terrorist den.

ROBERTSON: Burned out army trucks an indication of the ferocity of the fight so far, itself Pakistani officials believe an indication the al Qaeda fighters are protecting a high value target.

Although Pakistani officials won't say publicly who they think they may have, privately Pakistani intelligence and military sources still maintain what CNN first reported Thursday that intercepts and interrogations indicate Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, is surrounded by thousands of Pakistani troops.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And Nic is here with us now. Nic, let me try and do a couple of quick ones. Are they any more confident today or are they less confident today that al-Zawahiri is actually in there?

ROBERTSON: From the press briefing they gave, the Pakistani military gave yesterday, they really avoided again like all officials here going on record and saying he's there. Behind the scenes privately that's what we're being told repeatedly. No one behind the scenes is backing away from that.

BROWN: They have, they talked about giving them 48 hours to surrender. I don't think anybody in their heart of hearts actually believes that surrender is on the table so why do we have any sense are they holding on?

ROBERTSON: There are a lot of people still in that area. It's not clear to the Pakistani authorities when they gave a four hour window for a lot of people in that area, a lot of tribal people to get their families out of the way of harm, how many people actually got out of the way, so there is a -- there is a concern by the authorities here are the tribes people there safe? Are they out of the way? Can they proceed with the battle?

BROWN: Nic, we're always glad to see you, never more so than today. Thank you, Nic Robertson who is with us in Pakistan.

ROBERTSON: Thank you.

BROWN: To Washington next where now in addition to the complication of the occupation of Iraq holding the alliance together is getting to be very tricky business.

Spain last week, South Korea has made uncomfortable noises from the administration's point of view, the head of the Polish government made uncomfortable noises today about his country's role in all of this and whether it felt it was misled. So the president on an important occasion addressing the foreign dignitaries who had gathered with him in Washington had a lot to deal with.

From the White House tonight, White House Correspondent Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH (voice-over): On the year anniversary of the Iraq war that divided America and key allies, a call for unity on the broader war on terrorism.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There can be no separate peace with a terrorist enemy. Any sign of weakness or retreat simply validates terrorist violence and invites more violence for all nations.

BASH: Last week's attack in Spain, the subsequent political defeat of an ally there, and deadly bombings in Iraq have the administration working to keep a shaky U.S.-led coalition together. The president cited attacks from Saudi Arabia to Russia warning every nation is vulnerable.

BUSH: Each attack is designed to demoralize our people and divide us from one another.

BASH: In the White House East Room, officials from more than 80 nations, including France, Germany and Russia who actively opposed the Iraq war. Mr. Bush said all now agree Saddam Hussein's removal makes the Middle East more safe.

BUSH: Those differences belong to the past.

BASH: But differences remain. France's foreign minister said Friday the world is a more dangerous place because of the Iraq war. Though security is still a problem, the transition to democracy facing challenges, the president called the day one year ago he ordered air strikes a day of deliverance.

BUSH: Who would prefer that Saddam's torture chambers still be open? Who would wish that more mass graves were still being filled?

BASH: Only a passing reference to weapons of mass destruction, the central argument for war not yet found. Democrats immediately criticized the president for continuing to tie the war in Iraq to the war on terror.

WESLEY CLARK, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We distracted ourselves from the focus on terrorism to go into Iraq to a mission that I believe the Bush administration believed was sort of a low-hanging fruit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: But the president running for reelection on his wartime credentials has good reason to link the two issues. Polls show a vast majority of Americans support his efforts against terrorism but they are divided on whether or not the war in Iraq was the right thing to do -- Aaron.

BROWN: Dana, things we've seen from here I'm curious if there's been reaction there. The South Koreans are balking at sending troops into an area where the Americans want them to go. The Polish leader saying he believed he had been misled about Iraq. Is the administration either publicly or in the corridors saying anything about either?

BASH: Well, I'll tell you what they're doing, Aaron. From the president on down they're making phone calls. They're working behind the scenes to make sure that the coalition does stick together, to make sure that South Korea, for example, keeps their troops there, certainly Poland keeps their troops there and even hoping that perhaps Spain might turn around.

They are really working hard the diplomatic channels to do that. As a matter of fact, the president talked to the leader of Poland today and made it very clear, they made it clear at the White House here that they are going to keep their troops there. They are certainly concerned they tell us privately and they are doing what they can privately to say the same thing that they're saying publicly.

BROWN: Dana, thank you very much, Dana Bash at the White House tonight.

Two nights ago on this program when we spoke with Secretary of State Powell, he reinforced a notion that we'd heard before that Americans have to be realistic about the expectations of what sorts of democracies can grow in places like Afghanistan, not all that far from here, and certainly in Iraq.

It won't be like the Founding Fathers, Secretary Powell said, back in 1776. At the same time what has happened there this week looks anything but democratic. It has been a messy, bloody, deadly anniversary week.

From Baghdad this morning here's CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): On this first anniversary of the Iraq War, the U.S. Secretary of State was in Baghdad again defending the American-led invasion and occupation.

Meeting with U.S. soldiers, Secretary Powell reaffirmed the American commitment to rebuilt a democratic Iraq in the post Saddam era. In his words, what we are doing is right.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: There are those who are determined to stop us. They don't want Iraqis to be free. They don't want Iraqis to have democracy. They don't want women to have freedom in their own society.

RODGERS: Powell had a private meeting with Paul Bremer, the man leading the reconstruction effort in Iraq, this amid increasing evidence the U.S.-led coalition of the willing is becoming less and less willing. South Korea said it has canceled plans to send 3,000 troops to Kirkuk due to security concerns. The Spanish are pulling out.

Later, Secretary Powell was confronted with a question claiming there was no terrorism in Iraq until the Americans invaded and that the world is actually less safe now. The secretary appeared to sidestep.

POWELL: This is not the time to say let's stop what we're doing and pull back and not run and hide and think that it won't come and get us.

RODGERS: Secretary Powell's most awkward moment was when many Arab journalists walked out of his news conference in protest of the killing of two Arab TV journalists at an American military checkpoint Thursday. Powell promised an investigation of the incident. On Baghdad streets, there was this protest marking the anniversary of the invasion a year ago, demonstrators shouting no to Saddam and no to America. It wasn't the way it was supposed to be, an increasingly hostile Arab street. A year ago, U.S. soldiers came here believing they were liberators.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS: Those here in Iraq are saying they're having a very difficult time getting their message across to the Iraqi people -- Aaron.

BROWN: I'm curious if the secretary, if the general view there is that the secretary's visit was positive that it's being viewed positively on the streets of Baghdad.

RODGERS: I think increasingly less so. The problem here in Baghdad is that the Americans are responsible for security in this country under international law and the Americans have not been doing a grade A job of providing that security.

Basically, the Iraqis want their country back. They want elections. They say they're ready for it. The Americans say they're not and the Iraqis want the Americans to leave -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walt, thank you, Walt Rodgers in Baghdad.

In fairness on the American side, Baghdad is an enormous city. Iraq is a huge country. It's hard to provide a kind of absolute security in an environment that doesn't exist there.

Ahead on the program tonight we will get the latest information imaginable from the leading spokesman for the Pakistani military who has joined us here in Islamabad.

And later, the story of Private Polanco, a young man who did the best he could despite his fears. What's happened to him since the war with Iraq?

From Islamabad and around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We want to get a late read on the battle that is going on around the village of Wana up in this mountainous area of Pakistan between the al Qaeda forces and the Pakistani Army.

Major General Sultan is the principal spokesman for the Pakistani Army. It's good to see you again, sir. We heard reports that today the army is going to launch a major attack, is that correct?

MAJ. GEN. SHAUKAT SULTAN, PAKISTAN ARMY: In fact it's for the past two days that in the area where we feel that there is a hardened den of the terrorists and also their local supporters that has been effectively sanitized. It has been cordoned and the army should not take long to flush it out and maybe, I can't give the exact plans, but it should be very soon that we would like to clear it.

BROWN: Do you think another day, 48 hours, more than that?

SULTAN: I will say soon.

BROWN: OK. We have heard reports that some of the Pakistani paramilitaries, not the regular army, have switched sides in this. Is there any truth to that?

SULTAN: There is no question that people will switch sides. Everyone in Pakistan is loyal to the state. That has to be very well understood. These are just propaganda reports plus side warfare and maybe it's only the enemies of Pakistan who are going to spread such like rumors. There is no truth in these. I strongly dismiss these rumors.

BROWN: Do you and does the Pakistani military believe today, as you and I are talking, that Ayman al-Zawahiri is up in that group?

SULTAN: Well, from the type of resistance that we get and the kind of preparations that they have made of their den it's fair to assume that there would be some high value target there. I can't name the target.

BROWN: You've taken prisoners. You've interrogates some of those prisoners. Have any of those prisoners said al-Zawahiri is there?

SULTAN: Well, we have taken prisoners. Most of them are foreigners and we have interrogated them as well. As the operation goes on the kind of information that we get from the prisoners can't be shared as it will have impact on the ongoing operations.

BROWN: I understand. We have heard reports that your side, the Pakistani military side has taken some significant casualties in the last 24 hours. Do you, can you put any numbers on that at this point?

SULTAN: There are no casualties of the Pakistan Army in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: The Pakistani Army has not suffered any casualties at all?

SULTAN: There are none in the past 24 hours.

BROWN: Previous to that?

SULTAN: Well there may be some. We will give out the details once we are over with the operation.

BROWN: Someone described the situation to us earlier as the al Qaeda terrorists occupy the high ground and that's making in just the most basic military way this whole operation more complicated, is that true?

SULTAN: Well, it's not totally true that they occupy the high ground and the troops they are at the lower grounds. That's not correct. The troops have cordoned the area and ensured that the troops occupy the high ground and inside, if at all, there are high grounds with the terrorists they will be cleared. We have the means to clear those.

BROWN: No one can ever say anything I suppose with 100 percent certainty but how much certainty do you feel that those 200, 300, 400 al Qaeda fighters, however many are there, cannot escape?

SULTAN: I think with a great certainty I can say that they cannot escape. The kind of sanitization of the area that we have done and the surveillance means I am quite sure.

BROWN: Do you believe they'll surrender?

SULTAN: Either they'll surrender or they'll get eliminated.

BROWN: General, it's good to see you again. We've seen you a lot over the last few days. Thank you again for your time.

SULTAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you, General Sultan.

Next up on NEWSNIGHT, we'll take a broader look at the war on terror. There have been victories. There have been defeats. There have been changes in tactics and methods and we'll look at all of that.

From around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Reporting from Pakistan these last several days has given us a truly vivid perspective on both the promise and the complications of fighting the war on terror.

We want to take a step back, perhaps several steps back, and look at it more from the big picture side, not just as it appears to us here in Pakistan but as it looks around the world.

Filing for us tonight, CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA (voice-over): There is no better place than Iraq to illustrate the new multidimensional terror threat.

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: The al Qaeda are coming into Iraq or the al Qaeda affiliates are coming into Iraq because they know that Iraq is a central front in the war on terrorism.

ARENA: Officials say Islamist fighters have crossed into Iraq from Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Most are affiliated with a variety of autonomous terror groups but all are bound by a common goal to disrupt the transfer of power to the new Iraqi government. The situation in Iraq serves as a microcosm for what is going on globally on the terror front, which experts define as a growing jihad movement.

BRUCE HOFFMAN, RAND CORP.: This is a constellation of like- minded terrorists and violently inclined individuals there that depending on the circumstances cooperate with one another, share information, share weapons, share intelligence.

ARENA: Investigators are seeing new alliances and new tactics, as evidenced by last week's train attacks in Madrid.

MATT LEVITT, FORMER FBI ANALYST: A lot of people thought the Madrid attacks were not al Qaeda because they were not suicide bombs. That's a shift in target, a shift in tactic.

ARENA: Officials say attacks this past year in Riyadh, Istanbul, and most recently Madrid show continued resolve and an ability to recruit. They say there are related cells all over the world in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

GEORGE TENET, CIA DIRECTOR: The steady spread of Osama bin Laden's anti-American sentiment through the wider Sunni extremist movement and through the broad dissemination of al Qaeda's destructive expertise ensures that a serious threat will remain for the foreseeable future with or without al Qaeda in the picture.

ARENA: And for every terror leader that is eliminated there is another in the wings. Take, for example, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Officials say he is one of the masterminds behind the attacks in Iraq and believe he may have been connected to attacks in Europe as well.

HOFFMAN: He's become a leading figure in the jihadist movement like bin Laden in that respect because of his own self promotion.

ARENA: Experts say the terror movement is a movement of ideas not individuals and the evolving nature of that movement makes it even harder to measure success.

LEVITT: The bottom line is terrorism has always existed and in some form it will always exist. The question is can we constrict the operating environment enough so that terrorism is squished back down into some type of tolerable level where it is not the highest issue on our national security priorities?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ARENA: Those on the front lines in this war say that is possible if the United States, like the terrorists, constantly changes its tactics and strategies -- Aaron.

BROWN: Kelli, do people that you talk to, the counterterrorism people you talk to, express openly I guess that there are limitations to what the military side of this could do and then at some point you have to attack this problem both politically and economically? You have to attack the ideas. ARENA: Absolutely, Aaron, and that's what makes this so complicated. You can't completely seal borders. You can't completely round up everyone who has any anti-American sentiment. This is a can of worms they say that has to be opened from the inside.

BROWN: Kelli, thank you and we actually will be seeing you a little bit later in the program tonight. Thank you very much, Kelli Arena.

Steve Coll joins us now. He is a seasoned journalist in this part of the world, an author of "Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001." Steve joins us from Washington tonight. It's good to have you with us.

Just a micro question and then we'll broaden this out a bit. Based on what you know of al-Zawahiri is it conceivable to you that he would allow himself to be trapped in an area where he had no escape route?

STEVE COLL, "WASHINGTON POST" MANAGING EDITOR: It seems unlikely, although it's hard to know where he might have been surprised as this operation unfolded. He's been quite mobile obviously for the last two years and even before that for several years.

He has deep experience in moving and (unintelligible) in those very mountainous areas. He's moved in and out of them quite confidently for five years and he's quite well connected in the local networks, both the Islamist networks and the tribal networks, so he presumably has lots of options when he finds himself in something of a corner like this.

BROWN: So, just briefly, so you think they've got him in a corner or do you think that may be a bit overblown?

COLL: Well, your reporting has been very good on this. The Pakistanis clearly believe that they've got evidence of his presence in these adobe compounds. In Washington, officials are more cautious.

Nobody is ruling out the idea that there's a high value target, as the jargon has it, in this area but there's less confidence that it's Zawahiri himself. There are a dozen or more leaders who are less well know who might galvanize this kind of resistance.

BROWN: Let's take, Steve, a broader view here. I think there is a view among a lot of counterterrorism people that one of the things that both the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have done is caused this movement to sort of metastasize, to spread on its own into a million or hundreds or dozens of different forms and, in a sense, make it worse. Do you subscribe to that?

COLL: Well, whether it's worse or not is difficult to judge.

But the sort of spatial description that you provide and that Kelli highlighted in her report I think is correct. Al Qaeda really was such an organization even before September 11. By the time you get to 2001, it had metastasized globally. It had developed connections to regional militant movements that originally been involved in local national struggles, sometimes religious, political struggles.

Suddenly, they were increasingly infected by the al Qaeda vision. And I think one aspect of this description that you've developed that is important goes beyond the structure of the groups and toward their theory of what they're trying to accomplish. And what brings them together to make them so dangerous is their vision of inflicting mass casualties against the West. That's a new feature of the terrorism that al Qaeda has developed and tried to model in a way on September 11.

It used to be that terrorists tried to create theatrical events for national causes. Now all these regional groups that might have pursued that method earlier seek shock events defined by mass casualties.

BROWN: Well, let me play that back, to make sure I understand it. General Abizaid, when I talked to him the other day, said, ultimately, what they want is a kind of domination of countries. They want a religious, political domination. What you're talking about, it seems to me, is, tactically, they want to go about that by killing as many Westerners as they can.

COLL: By killing as many nonbelievers as they can. That's right.

I think the end is a vision of societies transformed by religion and political religion, as al Qaeda would define it, which means the rule of a Sunni caliphate and other sort of aspects of a futuristic, almost a fantasy vision of the way Islam would dominate countries.

But, in the interim steps, at a tactical level, they see a need to shock powerful enemies who are unshakeable without devastating events. And in the last four or five years, they have developed theories about how to do that that involve these kind of devastating strikes.

BROWN: Steve, thank you.

It seems like we have come a long way from when the Russians invaded Afghanistan and all that seems to have followed.

Steve Coll with us from Washington.

Still ahead on the program tonight, this, like so many other things, has a political equation to it in the administration's linkage with the war on terror with the war on Iraq. Jeff Greenfield with that.

We have much more from Islamabad as NEWSNIGHT continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Back home, in New York and San Francisco, there's expected over the weekend to be large anti-war demonstrations. How large? We'll wait and see as they unfold. Who participates, we'll wait and me.

There's no question that the American people, if you believe the polls -- and we do -- supported the idea of going to war with Iraq. The question now is why, how the war was sold, what the country was told. Was it led or was it misled? That is going to be a central question in the political campaign ahead.

Here's CNN's Jeff Greenfield

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): January 2003, as the U.S. prepares for war with Iraq, President Bush spells out the link between Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and a terrorist threat to the United States.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al Qaeda. Secretly, and without fingerprints, he could provide one of his hidden weapons to terrorists, or help them develop their own.

GREENFIELD: March 2004, in a speech the 101st Airborne Thursday, the link has become a possibility, but one the president says he could not ignore.

BUSH: I had a choice to make, either take the word of a madman or take such threats seriously and defend America. Faced with that choice, I will defend America every time.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: The president today, on the one year anniversary of the start of the Iraq war, there is no mention of weapons of mass destruction and no assertion of a direct link between Saddam and terror. Instead, the war's achievements are described this way.

BUSH: All of us can now agree that the fall of the Iraqi dictator has removed a source of violence, aggression, and instability in the Middle East.

GREENFIELD (on camera): But the argument remains. Was the war in Iraq an essential part in the battle against terror or a dangerous diversion from it?

(voice-over): American public opinion supports the idea of such a link. A survey last December showed that a majority of Americans actually believed Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the attacks of September 11.

While President Bush has never made that argument, he has repeatedly raised the specter of 9/11 as a reason for striking at Saddam.

BUSH: Imagine those 19 hijackers with other weapons and other plans, this time armed by Saddam Hussein.

GREENFIELD: By contrast, consider the comments of the incoming Spanish prime minister, elected just days after bombs killed over 200 people in Madrid. Mr. Zapatero called the Iraq war a disaster, said a policy cannot be built on lies. Hans Blix, the U.N. weapons inspection chief, said Thursday the war has actually increased the danger of terror.

And all through the primaries, Democrats argued that the Iraq war was a diversion from the war on terror. But, on Wednesday, John Kerry struck a different note. Yes, he said, the president misled Americans about the war, but there now is a terrorist danger in Iraq.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To leave too soon would leave behind a failed state that would inevitably would become a haven for terrorists, an instable state which would create its own set of problems for the Middle East itself, a problem for the region and a dangerous setback in the war against terror.

GREENFIELD (on camera): Four different times in his speech, the president read off a country-by-country list of nations as if determined to counter the impression that United States was going it alone. And by fusing a speech on Iraq with a speech about terror, the president also seemed determined to continue underlining that link, even if it is very different from the kind of link he described on the eve of war a year ago.

Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: David Sanger joins us now. David covers the White House for "The New York Times." And he is in Las Vegas.

David, it's always good to have you with us.

I think it's fair to say, if you look at the events of just the last week and a day, that it's been a tough week for the administration and it portends tougher political weeks ahead.

DAVID SANGER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": It sure does, Aaron.

The administration came into this week hoping to lay out a sequence of events to show what the war in Iraq had accomplished. On Monday, they took a number of us down to see the weapons that had been -- the nuclear facilities that had been pulled out of Libya. And all week, you have heard this progression of speeches, Vice President Cheney's, the president's today.

But what has interrupted, of course, has been the continued casualties in Iraq, but also the fact that the war has become a reminder, from the Spanish, from the leader of Poland, this anniversary has become a reminder that, while many people join in the celebration that Saddam Hussein is gone, the questions about why we conducted the war when we conducted the war are probably as alive now as they were the day the first shot was fired.

BROWN: And central to that, it would seem to me, from the president's political point of view, is, it goes to the heart of his best political asset, his credibility, the belief the American people have in him that he's a straight shooter.

SANGER: I think that's right, Aaron.

And you saw Senator Kerry, in his comments and others he's made in recent weeks, try to tie the Iraq decision with a number of other domestic statements that the president has made to try to impeach his credibility broadly. But I think the problem goes beyond that, because what's happened since the terrible terrorist events in Spain last week is that you have now seen members of the coalition begin to peel away a bit.

Obviously, the Spanish did. The comments by Poland did not indicate that they would in any way reduce their forces in Iraq, but certainly suggested that they, too, felt misled. And I think what the White House is concerned about, Aaron, is that, as the year goes on and as, of course, the handover of power to the Iraqis occurs, you could begin to see more fragmenting, peeling away of this coalition.

And I think that's why he was going to such lengths to invite in today the ambassadors from many of the coalition countries, put them in the East Room and say, we're all in this together.

BROWN: And just, David, one more political point, I guess. In some respects, it is also hard for this president, given the nature of his administration and its definition by 9/11, to change the subject if things start going badly.

SANGER: Well, it is.

And that's what -- that's one of the mysteries between now and Election Day. And one of the big concerns within the White House is what happens after we pull out the coalition provisional authority and begin to turn the governing power over to the Iraqis themselves. There is a lot of concern that that could lead to a fair bit of chaos. If it did, it would be in those months just before the election.

On the other hand, if it appears to be going smoothly, then the arguments that the president made today, that we have not only liberated Iraq, but created an island of stability from which the greater Middle East can become more democratic and stable, then I think the president can turn this very well.

BROWN: David, thank you.

There are a lot of people in this part of the world, in fact, who believe that that could happen, but they emphasize could. They're certainly not guaranteeing it.

David Sanger of "The New York Times" with us. We'll take a break. When we come back, we'll update the rest of the day's news. We'll do that from stateside.

And later in the program, one of the characters you're bound to remember from the buildup of the war, his concerns, his fears and where he is now.

From Islamabad and around the world, you are watching NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ARENA: Kelli Arena here in Washington now with a quick check of the other stories making news tonight.

The Army has dropped all charges against James Yee. Mr. Yee, you may remember, served as a chaplain at the Guantanamo Bay detention center, that is, until he was accused of espionage. He later was charged with a variety of lesser offenses instead, including mishandling classified documents, adultery and possession of pornography. He spent 76 days in custody. His marriage felt apart.

And as for why the charges were dropped, a statement from the Army says publicizing the evidence against Chaplain Yee raises security concerns.

The federal government says pregnant women, nursing mothers and young children should eat no more than one serving of canned albacore tuna a week. Research shows it contains higher levels of mercury than other varieties. And the government also warned women of child-baring age to avoid shark, swordfish, tilefish, and king mackerel because of high mercury content.

And in Miami, mother and daughter are doing fine, by the looks of it. Seven weeks ago, Alessia Di Matteo underwent transplant surgery, giving her eight new organs, including kidneys, a liver, and most of her digestive tract. She was well enough today to meet the press and her mom.

Well, on to the "Moneyline Roundup," starting tonight with a recall. The Coca-Cola is taking about half-a-million bottles of its Dasani brand water off the shelves in Great Britain, this after discovering that some bottles contained a higher-than-legal amount of the chemical compound bromate. Both Coke and the British government say there's no cause for concern.

And get this. A couple of French nutritionists say that Big Macs aren't as bad as you would imagine. Their verdict published today in a dieting guidebook says Le Big Mac is way more helpful, for instance, than quiche lorraine, better, in other words, than a pastry made of eggs, cheese, cream and bacon.

And ask people, are you happy where you work, and if they work in Los Angeles, chances are the answer will be yes. According to a survey sponsored by AOL, Angelenos are happiest in their jobs. Detroit workers are mopiest and Bostonians are happiest with their bosses. Wall Street, meantime, ended the week on a blue note, major declines across the board, pretty much the way it's been for the last couple of months.

Still ahead on NEWSNIGHT, Aaron returns from Islamabad with a look at life during and after the war for one young Marine.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: I don't think any story we did in the buildup to the war created more mail than the story of Arnaldo Polonco (ph). At first blush, he seemed more a screw-up than a Marine. But what we have learned about this young man since was that his desire to serve was second to none. And, in the process, he and the Marines and the rest of us gained a whole lot.

Here's CNN's Jason Bellini.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON BELLINI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was three days before crossing into Iraq with the U.S. Marines, and Private Arnaldo Polonco was in trouble.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look at me.

BELLINI: Polonco's superiors believed he was faking heat exhaustion. This was becoming a frequent affair, Polonco refusing to carry the same weight in his pack as his platoon mates.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's just certain things that I know that I can't do. And I can't change it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But should we be called upon to cross the border and his current actions, could that be a liability there? Yes, it could.

BELLINI: On the eve of the war, Polonco begged his superiors not to leave him behind. They didn't.

What happened to Private Polonco?

A year later, I caught up with him in New York City. He's still in uniform, now a security guard. After four years in the Marines, he got an honorable discharge. Polonco tells me he joined the military because he saw it as a way, out of a world of gangs, drugs and despair.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When I was a little kid, there used to be shootings, everything. We used to be playing baseball right here. Pop, pop, pop. You hear gunshots. And all we did was just like keep on playing baseball.

BELLINI (on camera): When you got back and you started telling your friends about what the war was like for you, what did you tell them? UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Basically, most of my friends, the only thing they wanted to know was like, how many people did you kill, this, this and that? I basically told them, no, it was just crazy. It was a lot of people dying and a lot of people not dying.

BELLINI (voice-over): For the first week of the war, Polonco was assigned to a different squad. His job, guarding other Marine's packs.

(on camera): Why were you in a different squad?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why was I in a different squad? The captain put me with a different squad because -- I have no idea.

BELLINI (voice-over): I interviewed Private Polonco once during the war for a story not about him, but about the mail that had just arrived.

(on camera): Did you get anything this time around?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not yet.

BELLINI: No?

(voice-over): Viewers responded. By the time the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit got back to ship, Polonco had hundreds of boxes of letters waiting for him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: For some reason, I was the one getting the most packages. And at first, I was like, who's this? Because it was name that I have never heard of.

BELLINI: Some Marines teased it, called it pity mail. Polonco says he gave much of it away to boost the morale of others.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I would like to say thank you, too, to all those that ever sent me something. I would like to say thank you and we appreciate it.

BELLINI: Polonco says he's the only guy on his block ever to see the world.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I wanted to prove to myself that I could do something that's hard in life, so that could give me buildup steps and tell me, yes, if I could do this, I could do anything.

BELLINI: And Polonco says he will forever be proud he was a U.S. Marine.

Jason Bellini, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It is a reminder to all of us, not just to Polonco, to all of us, that we never really know who we are and how we'll react until the moments we're tested. We'll wrap up our week in Pakistan in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: No matter where we are, we know what that music means.

This has been a remarkable week in many respects for us and for the program, not simply for the dignitaries we have met, General Abizaid, Secretary of State Powell, President Musharraf, but for the soldiers, the privates, the corporals, the colonels in Iraq, who, regardless of your feelings about politics and policy,are trying to do something important, and for the young people here in Pakistan who understand that they are literally on the front lines in this battle between extremism and moderation that will affect the future of all of us and all of our children.

And we wish all these people nothing but the best.

Our plan is to head home. We'll see what events decide. Until then, good night for all of us in Islamabad for NEWSNIGHT.

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