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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown
U.S. Military Conducts Yet Another Air Strike in Fallujah; Bush Campaigns in Minnesota; Ivan's Aftermath
Aired September 16, 2004 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
In ways more dramatic than most, the choice tonight was simple, which piece of bad news, really bad news comes first? It is the hurricane that has done its worst damage and it is considerable or, is it a war that once seemed to many so easy until reality set in?
Here's one way to think about it. The homes and streets and schools and hospitals around the Gulf will be long repaired before American troops even think of coming home from Iraq.
As we'll report shortly, the president was told weeks ago in a national intelligence estimate that things on the ground in Iraq were bad that civil war remains a real possibility.
What we need right now, it seems to me, is straight talk and honest talk about where we are and where we're going. We need it from Senator Kerry whose message on Iraq has been so muddled.
Not even those who want to support him get it. And we need it from the president who is loathe to admit mistakes even when the evidence of those mistakes is so painfully clear. The campaign has less than two months to go. We should demand no less.
The whip begins in Baghdad where CNN's Walter Rodgers starts us off with a headline -- Walt.
WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, just a few hours ago yet another air strike against Abu Musab Zarqawi targets in Fallujah but that air strike has done nothing to make westerners in Baghdad fell any less vulnerable, especially after the latest kidnappings -- Aaron.
BROWN: Walt, back to you at the top for the details.
On to Minnesota, a Republican presidential candidate hasn't carried the state since 1972, I didn't know that, President Bush trying hard to change that, our Senior White House Correspondent John King traveling with him, John, a headline tonight.
JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, this is a state the president thinks he can win this year but, as he spoke here today, he said, yes, the fighting in Iraq has turned tough but the president insists Iraq is fighting for freedom. He says it's worth it and he says, if John Kerry was commander-in-chief, things would be worse -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, thank you.
Senator Kerry was in Las Vegas, had sharp words for the president, Dan Lothian has moved on to Albuquerque and has the headline -- Dan.
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF: That's right, Aaron. Senator Kerry wrapped up a rally here in Albuquerque tonight where he continued to attack President Bush on Iraq.
Earlier in the day he was in Las Vegas meeting with National Guard members, the same group that President Bush received the warm reception from on Tuesday, a much different reception for Senator Kerry -- Aaron.
BROWN: Dan, thank you.
And finally, Ivan's aftermath, Gulf Shores, Alabama taking one of the hardest hits from the hurricane, Anderson Cooper rode out the storm and now rides with us for a bit, a headline Anderson.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the coast of Alabama hit and hit hard last night. Today, as Alabamans woke up they surveyed the damage and there is a lot of damage in communities all along the shore.
BROWN: Anderson, thank you. We'll get back to you pretty quickly and the rest as well.
Also coming up on the program tonight, the difference between life and death, their decision, now this couple has an entire future to think about it.
Also the questions about the president's National Guard service and the answers appear to produce more questions.
And, at the end of the hour, certainty, morning papers as always, all that and more in the hour ahead.
We begin tonight with Iraq past, present and future, the past dating back to July and a classified intelligence report on Iraq. We've often said that the story of the war in Iraq can be viewed through many lenses. The newly-revealed report prepared for the president provides a new frame for the story, present tense.
Despite a daily reporting, the Pentagon -- rather, despite the daily reporting by the Pentagon of the number of insurgents killed, the insurgency is growing. Despite the billions spent, the thousands wounded, the more than 1,000 American dead, Iraq is no safer. Elections in January right now seem more a hope than anything.
We begin our reporting at the Pentagon and CNN's Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The fact that things have gone from bad to worse in Iraq should not come as a surprise to President Bush.
Sources confirm to CNN that a highly pessimistic national intelligence estimate was sent to the White House back in July. The classified warning predicted the best case for Iraq, tenuous stability, the worst case civil war. Despite the gloomy secret forecast, President Bush continues to argue publicly the U.S. is making good progress in Iraq.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We'll get them on the path of stability and democracy as quickly as possible and then our troops will return home with the honor they have earned.
MCINTYRE: But six weeks after President Bush got the bleak prediction, it seems to be coming true. The Pentagon now admits the insurgency in Iraq is growing in both size and sophistication and, as a result, the number of U.S. war dead, now over 1,025, is climbing at a faster rate than at any time since major combat.
In visits to troops at U.S. bases this week, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld found himself answering questions about why Iraq seems to be taking a turn for the worse.
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: It's a tough business and, as you know from reading the papers and seeing the television, it's a dangerous business and a great many of you know that from being there personally.
MCINTYRE: Sources say the intelligence report raises serious questions about Iraq's ability to achieve political solutions in the next year or two, noting the country's limited experience with representative government and history of violence.
FRANK FUKUYAMA, MILITARY HISTORIAN: I think that anybody that thinks that you can hold elections in the Sunni Triangle by the end of January is really smoking something.
MCINTYRE (on camera): A senior defense official called the negative assessment one view but it's a view that's increasing being held by experts in and out of the Pentagon who worry the U.S. military is becoming trapped in a no win situation where the harder it hits the insurgents, the stronger they become.
Jamie McIntyre, CNN, the Pentagon.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Documents, of course, tell the story of Iraq from the safety of government buildings here at home. The story, in fact, is being written on the streets of Baghdad, around the country and it suggests a country that grows more dangerous by the day. We say that neither happily nor lightly. It seems the simple truth.
There are too few Americans to secure the place and too few Iraqis ready, willing and able to help, from Baghdad tonight CNN's Walter Rodgers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RODGERS (voice-over): The two Americans and one British contractor living here believe an Iraqi security guard was protecting them overnight but the guard disappeared, evaporated.
These U.S. soldiers arrived after the three contractors were kidnapped by what neighbors say were eleven armed men. There was no U.S. Army presence, the Army stretched far too thinly to protect much other than themselves.
LT. GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, U.S. ARMY: Well, it's a tough time because we're in a period where the Iraqi security forces still don't have the capabilities that they'll need to take on an even greater share of the load.
RODGERS: There also have been brazen attempts to breach the perimeter of the so-called Green Zone, the highly fortified home of the U.S. and British Embassies and the interim Iraqi government. Questions now exist about whether the Green Zone's perimeter could be defended.
This week's car bombing killing 47 prompted one U.S. general to say he simply cannot provide protection to all of Baghdad. Iraqis have known that for months that wherever they go they could be blown up by car bombs or random mortar fire or kidnapped. The result, the U.S. is losing goodwill rapidly.
ROSEMARY HOLLIS, THE ROYAL INST. OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: You didn't need to create this hornet's nest. You didn't need to incite hatred more than there was already across the region by literally invading and, as far as a lot of Arabs are concerned, raping a country.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
RODGERS: Amid renewed talk of civil war, it's useful to remember little is inevitable and things could improve but, for now, the trend seems to be quite discouraging -- Aaron.
BROWN: Well, let's hope for improvement and try and understand what actually is happening. Are there -- why is it getting -- it's such a simple and I suppose complicated question. Why is it getting worse?
RODGERS: That's a simple and complicated question, Aaron. It's complicated because we don't ever see the entire picture and there are areas of the country where U.S. forces are indeed working to restore medical facilities and help people.
The difficulty, of course, is that every time the insurgents or the terrorists strike in this country they suddenly grab the headlines and rightly or wrongly those headlines, be it a car bombing with 47 people dead, three westerners, two Americans and a British contractor kidnapped today, those headlines give the impression that the tide is running against the Americans here.
It's difficult to say for sure but, again, that latest CIA document confirms pretty much what we have been reporting month after month out of here that the situation appears slowly unraveling -- Aaron.
BROWN: Well, that's a really interesting way to look, it seems to me. I mean it's one thing to say that news headlines create perception and they certainly do and that reality might be different. The object of the exercise we're all engaged in is to try and figure out the realities. Is there any reason to believe the reality is better than the headlines portrayed?
RODGERS: The difficulty in a situation like this, Aaron, is that the perception ultimately becomes the reality. That is to say the perception that Baghdad is not safe. That has become the reality here, whether it's mortars falling in the Green Zone, whether it's car bombs or whether it's three contractors kidnapped.
The perception has become the reality. Baghdad is not safe for westerners and that's probably true all over this country, although we're fairly restricted these days because of the security situation having deteriorated so badly. We just don't travel that much -- Aaron.
BROWN: Thank you. It's an insane catch-22 all around. Walter, thank you, stay safe, Walter Rodgers in Baghdad.
Whatever the realities on the ground, whatever sober assessments the intelligence community is writing they hardly seem to make their way into the president's campaign speeches these days on the stump. The president talks of progress and elections and honor and Saddam. He also speaks of his opponent.
Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): A picture perfect moment for a Republican president looking to keep Minnesota and other Democratic strongholds in the Midwest on his campaign roadmap.
BUSH: As we're coming down the pike there's no doubt in my mind with your help we will carry the great state of Minnesota.
KING: Small cities, like Rochester, and smaller towns like Blaine (ph) and St. Cloud are critical to Mr. Bush's hopes of putting Minnesota in the Republican column for president for the first time since 1972. They like straight talk in places like this, something the president says they don't get from Democrat John Kerry.
BUSH: Now, during the course of this campaign, the fellow I'm running against has probably had about eight positions on Iraq.
KING: The president talks optimistically of an Iraq fighting for freedom. The insurgency is more and more violent. A new Bush administration intelligence assessment warns of possible civil war.
So, the sharper attacks are no coincidence. The president is trying to stoke doubts about his opponent, just as Senator Kerry calls recent developments proof Mr. Bush's Iraq policy is a failure.
MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF BUSH CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: And I think in that case when you have difficulty, the public is going to decide -- side with somebody that's decisive as opposed to somebody that's indecisive.
KING: Rochester is home of the Mayo Clinic, health care not only the big industry here but also the big issue the state Democratic chairman thinks will prove decisive come November.
MIKE ERLANDSON, MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC CHAIRMAN: Another 77,000 children in our state that are uninsured that George Bush doesn't have a plan to address and John Kerry does.
KING: Organizing a state Democrats cannot afford to lose is both hands-on and high tech. Four hundred and fifty phone calls a night now from this small county Democratic office alone. Barcodes used to build a database of undecided voters who then get special attention.
LYNN WILSON, MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC CHAIRWOMAN: That's how John Kerry won and I think that's how he's going to win here in Minnesota.
KING: Mr. Bush lost by two percentage points here four years ago and by even smaller margins in Iowa and Wisconsin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: And, if he wins any one or all three of those states this time, Aaron, officials say it will be for two reasons, one because of a conservative shift underway in rural and small town communities and, two, because this president somehow manages to keep the upper hand in a political debate over Iraq that even many Republicans now concede this incumbent president should not be winning -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, did they address at all the intelligence report today? Did he address it either publicly, did aides talk about it, what are they saying about it?
KING: The president did not. His aides did say, as Jamie McIntyre noted, that, yes, it was pessimistic, yes, it presents a bleak outlook but that they believe it is one outlook and that there are other options and there is some evidence that it's favorable.
The White House understands the report is quite damning and essentially says that after all this time, all these troops in Iraq, the situation is getting worse not better.
From a political standpoint, White House aides say they need to keep pressing ahead. They say you can't give in to the bad news. You have to keep pressing ahead and they're hoping for this.
The prime minister of Iraq, Mr. Allawi, is coming to Washington next week. He will address a joint session of Congress. The White House is hoping that you have a rally around the leader, if you will here in the United States that Mr. Allawi is impressive.
He will make an impressive case and if the American people say we need to stick with this guy then Mr. Bush is hoping they also say we need to stick with him as well -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, thank you, John King on the road with the president these days in Rochester, Minnesota tonight.
Iraq is hardly easier for Senator Kerry than for the president these days. Most of the week he's avoided discussing it at all but he did today at a gathering of National Guardsmen and women in Las Vegas, the same group that warmly received the president a couple of days ago.
And, as the president was questioning the Senator's judgment on Iraq, the Senator was questioning the president's honestly. Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's make him the next president of the United States.
LOTHIAN (voice-over): An enthusiastic reception for Senator John Kerry at a rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know you have the biggest hot air balloon festival in the world here and it is not to be confused with the Cheney-Bush campaign which is the second biggest hot air festival in America.
LOTHIAN: Hours earlier, a lukewarm response from National Guard members in Las Vegas to his attacks on President Bush.
KERRY: I believe that the president failed that fundamental test of leadership. He failed to tell you the truth. You deserve better.
LOTHIAN: Kerry, who has spent much of the week trying to focus his campaign on so-called pocketbook issues is also aggressively turning up the heat on the president's record in Iraq, hoping to draw a clearer contrast for voters.
KERRY: Today because of those wrong choices, America has borne 90 percent of the casualties and paid nearly 90 percent of the bill in Iraq. Contrast that with the first Gulf War where our allies paid 95 percent of the cost.
LOTHIAN: Kerry cited a "New York Times" story on weeks of intelligence reports that the Bush mission in Iraq is in serious trouble to bolster his claim that the president has repeatedly ignored such warnings in the face of convincing evidence.
KERRY: You deserve a president who isn't going to gild that truth or gild our national security with politics, who is not going to ignore his own intelligence, who isn't going to live in a different world of spin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN: The Bush campaign says that Kerry is resorting to personal attacks, Monday morning quarterbacking, defeatism and pessimism and "that's not a strategy for victory" -- Aaron.
BROWN: Obviously, you go to the National Guard, you talk about national security. Did the campaign continue this talk of Iraq? Did it continue to bring up the NIE report today as the day went on?
LOTHIAN: That was pretty much the only reference that we heard to that report. It was when he was speaking to the National Guard members in Nevada. But the campaign says that what they want to do is focus on these pocketbook issues, on health care, on the economy and those are the issues that you'll see going forward. They will bring some other issues out tomorrow but that's what they're focusing on -- Aaron.
BROWN: Dan, thank you, good to see you, Dan Lothian in Albuquerque tonight.
Ahead on the program the hurricane, of course, Hurricane Ivan now just a tropical storm but oh what it left behind. How much damage is the question for residents in several states and we'll take a look.
And, the president's National Guard service and the debate over the debate over the debate over the documents.
From New York this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Ivan is a hurricane no more tonight but when it came ashore early this morning, the storm was nothing short of ferocious. At least eight people were killed when Ivan blew through the region, a million and a half people spending the night in the dark in shelters, elsewhere, the full extent of the damage just beginning to emerge.
CNN's Anderson Cooper rode out the storm in Mobile, Alabama and filed again tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER (voice-over): Ivan the hurricane proved terrible indeed, tearing into Gulf Shores, Alabama as a Cat 3 storm, ransacking homes or reducing them to rubble all along the Gulf Coast.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mother Nature is something not to be messed with. That's for sure.
COOPER: Flooding and damage are widespread and like the storm itself exceptionally intense. Insured losses alone are estimated in the billions. Ivan left some bridges in Florida and Alabama impassable. Signs are down. Trees are down. So are power lines. Ivan's ferocity knocked out electricity to more than a million people in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That was the scariest thing I ever seen in my life. I won't never stay home again.
COOPER: Alabama's coastline braved a direct hit.
GOV. BOB RILEY (R), ALABAMA: We knew it was going to be brutal. We knew it was going to be huge. We knew it was going to affect almost the entire state.
COOPER: Flooding on its Barrier Islands is catastrophic.
LEANNE RILES, BALDWIN COUNTY EMA DIRECTOR: The majority of the condos and single homes, rental homes, Orange Beach all the way down to what was the (UNINTELLIGIBLE). It is no longer there. I just can't express the devastation that's there.
COOPER: To the west, coastal Mississippi was not spared from the destruction. Many businesses and homes have been damaged. But it was Florida's panhandle, already storm weary from two recent hurricanes, that was pummeled by Ivan's punishing winds.
GOV JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: The larger Pensacola area appears to have experienced the brunt of the storm.
COOPER: Thousands of National Guard troops have been called up as recovery operations in Florida begin anew.
MARTY EVANS, PRES., AMERICAN RED CROSS: Our post disaster efforts will focus in on helping people get shelter, get clothing, get some very basic household requirements and then provide mental health support.
COOPER: Once ashore, Ivan lost some of its punch and was downgraded to a tropical storm. It continues to dump torrential rains across the southeastern U.S. causing more flooding, downing trees and power lines in Georgia.
KEN GRAHAM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: I can't stress enough how dangerous Ivan remains.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: Here in Gulf Shores, Alabama, no one was killed thankfully but storm surge was a major issue. A (UNINTELLIGIBLE) foot wall of water came (UNINTELLIGIBLE) seven blocks from the shore. The water came all the way up here. It's now receded into the area I am in but you can still see it over there. It's on the highway. There shouldn't be any water there at all.
And, Aaron, to add insult to injury, the zoo here, which had been evacuated, a few animals were left behind, there are about six alligators, which have gotten loose. One of them is 1,000 pounds. Its name is Chucky and police are very interested in finding it -- Aaron. BROWN: Well, look out for alligators on top of everything else -- Anderson. Thank you, Anderson Cooper in Gulf Shores, Alabama, my goodness.
Hurricanes frequently spawn tornadoes. Ivan sure did. In one sense, storms do not discriminate putting anything and everything in their path in danger but some places, some homes are more vulnerable than others, some choices riskier than others as well.
Here's CNN's David Mattingly.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In pitch darkness, the unmistakable roar of wind told Nikki Dawsey something terrible had happened. Just down the road the double wide mobile home of her aunt and uncle, Melvin and Frances Terry (ph) of Calhoun County, Florida was caught in the path of an Ivan spawned tornado.
NIKKI DAWSEY, TORNADO SURVIVOR: Oh, they were good people. They were good people. They would help anybody in this world no matter who they were or how bad they were. They were good people.
MATTINGLY: Dawsey's uncle died at the scene, as did her cousin Donna. Her aunt and two other cousins were badly injured. Their home was utterly shattered. Finding something to salvage was almost impossible.
(on camera): These cement posts are all that's left of the couple's home. According to family members, they had been through storms before and this time they thought they'd be OK. But when the tornado hit, it picked up their home and threw it over there into the neighbor's house.
(voice-over): The neighbors, who also decided to stay, survived. In all, four people were killed in this tiny panhandle community near Blountstown, a place where choosing to stay or go proved for some to be a life or death decision.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's a worrywart.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What did she say to you when she called?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You are crazy to stay in that house. You need to get out and come up here. You're not safe.
MATTINGLY: Chris Ammons (ph) and Santana Sullivan believe they are alive because of a nervous phone call from her mother.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: His soon-to-be mother-in-law called him and told them that they needed to get to the motel and she meant they wanted them at the motel.
MATTINGLY: The couple is due to be married next month and don't intend to let Ivan change their plans. Their wedding rings were lost somewhere inside the rubble of their demolished home. Fortunately, the future they have planned together was not.
David Mattingly, CNN, Blountstown, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Still to come on NEWSNIGHT tonight, we go back to Iraq, an intelligence report painting the future of the country a bleak one, at least an uncertain one.
And, at the end of the hour, the presses are rolling. The staff is printing. Morning papers come your way.
Around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: One of the staff told me today we had a backlog of about 20 casualty screens.
We return again to Iraq on a day that's given us much to talk about. All week, we have watched the bloody string of attacks on the ground. Tonight, a new document to consider, along with the rest of the mix.
Joining us from Indianapolis, Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. Among other committees, he serves on the Select Committee on Intelligence. We're always glad to have him with us. And we are tonight.
Good to see you, Senator. Thank you for your time.
SEN. EVAN BAYH (D), INDIANA: Good to be with you, Aaron.
BROWN: Not a lot of good news out of there to report. Your colleague, Senator Hagel, said about the administration's request to shift, what, $3.5, a little more than half of $3.5 billion from reconstruction to security, "It is a sign that we are in big trouble in Iraq."
Do you agree?
BAYH: Well, I think that's apparent Aaron, and I think we -- in some ways, it's a false choice. We shouldn't have to choose between pursuing security for Iraq or economic development. In fact, we need to try to do both.
You're never going to have economic growth without security. On the other hand, you're probably not going to have security unless the Iraqi people feel some prospect for a better, more prosperous Iraq. So I do think this is symbolic of the kind of challenge that we're facing right now.
BROWN: I guess, Senator, the question I'm really trying to understand or what I'm really trying to understand is how it is that a year-plus after the fall of Saddam, with all the money spent, all the troops there, all the casualties suffered, we seem to be in worse shape than we were a year ago.
BAYH: You know, Aaron, it's very troubling and most unfortunate.
In some ways, what we're seeing is that Iraq is not a natural nation state. You have ethnic differences and religious differences. You have radicals from outside the country who have come in to try and disrupt the process of building a free, more prosperous Iraq. Some of the neighbors, Iran and Syria, for example, are not helpful. So there was a window of a couple months immediately following the war when momentum was on our side.
Unfortunately, we have let that dissipate and for a variety of factors, we're facing an insurgency now. And the history of insurgencies, unfortunately, is that they tend to be long, hard slogs. And that is what we're facing now.
BROWN: Is it still inappropriate to use the term Vietnam, to start talking about Vietnam references?
BAYH: Well, Vietnam was a little bit different. That was a national struggle, and we were on the wrong side in that national struggle, or at least the side of -- we did not stand for a legitimate government there.
In Iraq, we are truly trying to stand for the legitimate aspirations of the Iraqi people, but the Iraqi people themselves seem to be divided. As I mentioned, you have Sunni and Shia differences, let alone between the Kurds and the Islamic population -- or the Arab population rather. So it is a fractured society. And then what we're also seeing, Aaron, is that a small -- or a relatively small number of violent people who are simply dedicated to preventing the creation of a stable government can undermine progress, even if the vast majority of people want to have progress.
BROWN: You know, that last part of the sentence, Senator, is one of the most interesting things in all of this to me, because -- and I follow this as closely as I can. I don't see the stuff that you see.
But I wonder why it is that Iraqis, who, after all, we did liberate from a truly reprehensible government, why Iraqis are not more supportive, are not more helpful, are not more willing to fight for their country. It doesn't seem to me they're doing a very good job of it.
BAYH: Well, this is an example of no good deed going unpunished, isn't it?
We were temporarily welcomed as liberators, but that seemed to last for the blink of an eye. And it's irrational to my way of thinking, Aaron, and I'm sure to the American people, here, where we're spilling our blood, we're spending our treasure on behalf of the people of Iraq, but there doesn't seem to be that much gratitude.
But I will say this. An increasing number of Iraqis have shown that they are willing to lay down their lives for their country. These young men who were lined up to become police officers who were brutally murdered, the police officers who were slain in the shooting earlier this week, there are a number who are willing to stand up and fight.
And that's why I think it's important, even if it's an imperfect election this coming January, that we go forward as best we can with the electoral process, because, ultimately, it's the Iraqi people who need to create freedom and prosperity for themselves with our assistance. It is not enough that only Americans are willing to fight and die.
And once they have a legitimate government of their own, perhaps even more of them will be willing to do that.
BROWN: Well, respectfully, truly, we heard that about sovereignty, be that as it may, the...
BAYH: Well...
BROWN: The secretary-general today said he had some doubts about the possibility of being able to pull off a credible election by January. I think the word here is credible. I think, obviously, if we want, we can pull off an election.
But you have got a chunk of the country in the Sunni Triangle. It's hard to imagine how you do that. There are questions about whether the Sadr part of the Shia movement gets to play in the political process. Do you really believe we can pull off a credible election by January?
BAYH: I don't think it's a panacea, Aaron. And I don't think it will be a perfect election, certainly by our definition.
But the question is whether some legitimacy, some democracy is better than none. I think, if we just keep postponing it, then we give the radicals every incentive to keep disrupting the process. So, you know, it's not a perfect situation and -- but it's the best that we can do. I think we're facing a difficult situation, as you mentioned at the top, and we're going to have to take this a step at a time.
It is very slow going. And I think the intelligence report that you mentioned that has recently come to the public's attention is the end of our illusions about this process. It's going to be difficult.
BROWN: Just a final -- a final question.
Do you think -- you're out there campaigning these days. You're talking to constituents. Do your constituents feel that they were told honestly and directly what a war in Iraq would mean before that war started?
BAYH: Many of them do not, Aaron. Many of them had no idea about the costs involved. Many of them believed, as we had been indicated, that we would be welcomed as liberating heroes. And I don't think that many people thought in depth about this. And I've done my own soul-searching. And I think, looking back -- my colleague from Indiana, Dick Lugar, was very thoughtful about this. And the importance of insisting upon a plan, not just to win the war, but to win the peace following the war, was vitally important. And I simply don't think that there was ever a well-thought-out plan or, if there was, it has been executed with much competence. And people are beginning to realize that now, and there's great deal of frustration.
But I'd also say, Aaron, that there's a recognition that even though this is a difficult spot and a lot of reason for pessimism, at this point, regardless of whether you were for or against what has been done, we need to do what we can to see it through to an acceptable conclusion, because chaos in a place just utterly breaking apart would not be in anyone's best interests.
BROWN: Any regrets about your own vote authorizing the president to take the country to war?
BAYH: Well, I've done a lot of soul-searching about that, too. I think it's good that Saddam is not there with his tyranny. I think that it is good that we are attempting to stand for the right things.
But, you know, if I had known at the time, Aaron, that there was not a plan for winning the peace or that it would have been executed so poorly, I would have had other thoughts, perhaps. And I think, in retrospect, we should have insisted on such a plan before going forward.
BROWN: Senator, as we said at the beginning, you are a welcome guest here. We appreciate your time and your candor tonight. Thank you very much.
BAYH: Thank you, Aaron.
BROWN: Senator Evan Bayh, Democratic senator in the state of Indiana.
Still to come on the program, the president's National Guard service. The document story continues. Who gave them to CBS? Are they real? You know the questions and you know the program.
This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: We have talked over the last weeks, months, year about Sadr City. It's time to show it to you. This sprawling slum is home to over 2.5 million people outside of Baghdad. The U.S. hasn't been able to rebuild there, so Iraqis still live in very, very tough conditions. And this climate has created futile recruiting ground for one side, just one side, of the insurgency.
Here's CNN's Diana Muriel.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Welcome to Sadr City, 15 square miles of open sewers, rubbish strewn streets, home to probably the most deprived community in Iraq. People here live a hand-to-mouth existence, picking through the trash for something of value. Grazing their animals on what is left.
Ahmed Hatam's (ph) story is typical; 30 years old, he has three kids and no full-time job, relying on the support of his family to get by, all living together in this small house.
"We work just to be able to feed our families," he says. "If you don't work, you starve."
The situation here is miserable. Diseases are rampant. The water is repulsive. Even an animal wouldn't drink it.
Bullet-ridden walls and shrapnel-torn gates bear witness to the nightly clashes between insurgents and the American forces that patrol these streets.
The elders of the community have gathered here to mourn the dead. 20- year-old Khafan Al Martiqi (ph) died fighting American forces here in Sadr City together with his friend. His brothers-in-arms come to pay their respects, each one a fighter in Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army.
The faces of the so-called martyrs who have died fighting here adorn the walls where groups of unemployed young men gather to talk.
25-year-old Haider Jabal Salman (ph) is one of them.
"You ask why are we fighting the Americans, why have we started to hate them," he says. "Because they gave us nothing. We were happy when Saddam fell, but the Americans gave us nothing."
But U.S. forces say the fighting has forces a halt to the good work they were trying to do here. This officer blames Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army.
LT. COL. GARY VOLESKY, 2ND BATTALION, 5TH CAVALRY: We were making great strides in returning essential services to the people in sewage, water and electricity and picking up the trash. My assessment is that they do not want us to succeed here.
MURIEL (on camera): So while U.S. forces concentrate their efforts on securing Sadr City, the suffering of its 2.5 million people continues. It's a catch-22 situation: no peace, no improvements; no improvements, no peace. How the stalemate can be broken remains unclear.
Diana Muriel, CNN, Sadr City, Iraq.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: There are a lot of catch-22s out there.
Ahead on the program, the latest on the documents, CBS and the president. A break first.
This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, we're no closer tonight to knowing if the documents used by CBS News a week ago in its "60 Minutes" report on the president's National Guard service are real or fake. There is certainly nothing new out there supporting their authenticity. The network says it, too, is investigating, even as it continues to report on questions regarding how Mr. Bush got into the Guard and what he did while he was there.
What CBS has not done is revealed who gave it the documents, though theories abound.
Here's CNN's Jeanne Meserve.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: (voice- over): This Kinko's in Abilene, Texas, could shed some light on how the disputed documents came to CBS. Two people who looked at documents for CBS tell CNN they bore signs of having been faxed from there.
EMILY WILL, DOCUMENT EXAMINER: It says Kinko's of Abilene clearly on one and less clearly on the other.
MESERVE: It has not been determined who did that faxing or if that person was CBS' source. The Kinko's isn't far from the home of Bill Burkett, named by "Newsweek" and other news organizations as a possible source. Burkett has had a longstanding feud with the Texas National Guard, including a lawsuit, and with former Governor George W. Bush.
In the past, Burkett has alleged that Bush supporters purged potentially damaging information from Bush's military records.
BILL BURKETT, FORMER TEXAS NATIONAL GUARDSMAN: And the bottom line to that was make sure there wasn't anything there that would embarrass the governor.
MESERVE: Former Bush aide Joe Allbaugh has called the charges nonsense. Is Burkett the source? No one has said that they saw Burkett fax the documents and Burkett isn't talking. His lawyer, David Van Os, declined to tell "The New York Times" if Burkett had played a role, but said: "The possibility that Bill Burkett would falsify any documents or falsify any story is zero."
Though CBS is now acknowledging that there are valid questions about the documents, it released a letter from document examiner James Pierce saying they are authentic. Pierce refused to talk to CNN Thursday, saying the confidentiality agreement prohibited from talking. It is unclear if that agreement is with CBS. A forensics expert finds it unusual that none of the experts used by CBS are accredited by the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners.
JAMES STARRS, PROFESSOR, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: I've been in this business for 30 years, more, and I know most everybody in the field who is highly qualified. And none of these people that you've mentioned are in that category.
Marcel Matley, also consulted by CBS, is qualified as an expert witness in forensic document examination, but his resume also shows a background in graphology, which analyzes handwriting to determine character traits. A spokesman for CBS said Thursday it believes it hired the very best experts.
Jeanne Meserve, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(ROOSTER CROWING)
BROWN: It seems like at least a day or so since I've done this. Time to check morning papers from around the country, around the world. Um -- my mother hates when I say um. My wife isn't too thrilled either.
"Washington Times" starts it off. "Powell Blasts Annan on Iraq." The secretary-general of the U.N., Kofi Annan, said that he thought the war in Iraq was illegal, so Secretary Powell blasts back, "Says War Consistent With International Law." More telling I think was the secretary of state's remark that it just wasn't a very useful thing to say. It doesn't help. It's over. We're already there. How do we get out seems to be the question. They also put the president on the front page. The president in this picture was in beautiful Anoka, Minnesota. And it is.
And you can't really tell, I don't think, but, if you zoom in, you'll see,the president is doing a little product placement there. He's got a Diet Coke in his hand. And given the business news out of Coke today, that was probably welcome product placement.
"The Times-Picayune," one of the great names of a very good newspaper down in New Orleans. "Devastation; 13 Die. Ivan's Tidal Surge Smashes Gulf Shore." Pretty good front page there from "The Times-Picayune."
"The Miami Herald" leads hurricane, too. "A Crushing Blow." And a good picture. In truth, it's hard not to get good pictures out of a hurricane. "Pensacola Feels Storm's Full Fury." A favorite viewer of ours lives down in Pensacola.
Terry (ph), we hope you're doing OK.
"Boston Herald" leads sports. "Get It On." The Red Sox and the Yankees go at it this weekend, so they lead that way. I think they're in New York, right? The series is in New York this weekend, isn't it? Yes. And also sports, kind of. "Kobe's Lurid Tale Revealed: What Bryant Told the Cops." I thought that thing was over.
How we doing on time? Thirty? My goodness.
"Philadelphia Inquirer." "Ivan Cuts Path of Ruin. "Florida Is Hardest Hit, As Gulf Pummeled." I love the word pummeled. I never get to use it. "20 Dead in U.S." Everybody has got a slightly different number on that. Hopefully, the low number will bear out.
"Ivan Wallops South" is the way "The Cincinnati Enquirer" leads.
And we'll end it all with "The Chicago Sun-Times," because that's what we do. "O'Hare Scare. Flock of Birds Damages Jet in Air." Yikes. I've got to fly tomorrow. "Irresistible" is the weather in Chicago tomorrow. And I hope it is out West, where I'm headed.
We'll wrap it up in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: I'm headed out West tomorrow to shoot a story for our trip out West in a couple weeks. So have a good weekend.
We'll see you tomorrow -- or someone will. Good night for all of us.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 16, 2004 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
In ways more dramatic than most, the choice tonight was simple, which piece of bad news, really bad news comes first? It is the hurricane that has done its worst damage and it is considerable or, is it a war that once seemed to many so easy until reality set in?
Here's one way to think about it. The homes and streets and schools and hospitals around the Gulf will be long repaired before American troops even think of coming home from Iraq.
As we'll report shortly, the president was told weeks ago in a national intelligence estimate that things on the ground in Iraq were bad that civil war remains a real possibility.
What we need right now, it seems to me, is straight talk and honest talk about where we are and where we're going. We need it from Senator Kerry whose message on Iraq has been so muddled.
Not even those who want to support him get it. And we need it from the president who is loathe to admit mistakes even when the evidence of those mistakes is so painfully clear. The campaign has less than two months to go. We should demand no less.
The whip begins in Baghdad where CNN's Walter Rodgers starts us off with a headline -- Walt.
WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, just a few hours ago yet another air strike against Abu Musab Zarqawi targets in Fallujah but that air strike has done nothing to make westerners in Baghdad fell any less vulnerable, especially after the latest kidnappings -- Aaron.
BROWN: Walt, back to you at the top for the details.
On to Minnesota, a Republican presidential candidate hasn't carried the state since 1972, I didn't know that, President Bush trying hard to change that, our Senior White House Correspondent John King traveling with him, John, a headline tonight.
JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, this is a state the president thinks he can win this year but, as he spoke here today, he said, yes, the fighting in Iraq has turned tough but the president insists Iraq is fighting for freedom. He says it's worth it and he says, if John Kerry was commander-in-chief, things would be worse -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, thank you.
Senator Kerry was in Las Vegas, had sharp words for the president, Dan Lothian has moved on to Albuquerque and has the headline -- Dan.
DAN LOTHIAN, CNN BOSTON BUREAU CHIEF: That's right, Aaron. Senator Kerry wrapped up a rally here in Albuquerque tonight where he continued to attack President Bush on Iraq.
Earlier in the day he was in Las Vegas meeting with National Guard members, the same group that President Bush received the warm reception from on Tuesday, a much different reception for Senator Kerry -- Aaron.
BROWN: Dan, thank you.
And finally, Ivan's aftermath, Gulf Shores, Alabama taking one of the hardest hits from the hurricane, Anderson Cooper rode out the storm and now rides with us for a bit, a headline Anderson.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the coast of Alabama hit and hit hard last night. Today, as Alabamans woke up they surveyed the damage and there is a lot of damage in communities all along the shore.
BROWN: Anderson, thank you. We'll get back to you pretty quickly and the rest as well.
Also coming up on the program tonight, the difference between life and death, their decision, now this couple has an entire future to think about it.
Also the questions about the president's National Guard service and the answers appear to produce more questions.
And, at the end of the hour, certainty, morning papers as always, all that and more in the hour ahead.
We begin tonight with Iraq past, present and future, the past dating back to July and a classified intelligence report on Iraq. We've often said that the story of the war in Iraq can be viewed through many lenses. The newly-revealed report prepared for the president provides a new frame for the story, present tense.
Despite a daily reporting, the Pentagon -- rather, despite the daily reporting by the Pentagon of the number of insurgents killed, the insurgency is growing. Despite the billions spent, the thousands wounded, the more than 1,000 American dead, Iraq is no safer. Elections in January right now seem more a hope than anything.
We begin our reporting at the Pentagon and CNN's Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The fact that things have gone from bad to worse in Iraq should not come as a surprise to President Bush.
Sources confirm to CNN that a highly pessimistic national intelligence estimate was sent to the White House back in July. The classified warning predicted the best case for Iraq, tenuous stability, the worst case civil war. Despite the gloomy secret forecast, President Bush continues to argue publicly the U.S. is making good progress in Iraq.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We'll get them on the path of stability and democracy as quickly as possible and then our troops will return home with the honor they have earned.
MCINTYRE: But six weeks after President Bush got the bleak prediction, it seems to be coming true. The Pentagon now admits the insurgency in Iraq is growing in both size and sophistication and, as a result, the number of U.S. war dead, now over 1,025, is climbing at a faster rate than at any time since major combat.
In visits to troops at U.S. bases this week, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld found himself answering questions about why Iraq seems to be taking a turn for the worse.
DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: It's a tough business and, as you know from reading the papers and seeing the television, it's a dangerous business and a great many of you know that from being there personally.
MCINTYRE: Sources say the intelligence report raises serious questions about Iraq's ability to achieve political solutions in the next year or two, noting the country's limited experience with representative government and history of violence.
FRANK FUKUYAMA, MILITARY HISTORIAN: I think that anybody that thinks that you can hold elections in the Sunni Triangle by the end of January is really smoking something.
MCINTYRE (on camera): A senior defense official called the negative assessment one view but it's a view that's increasing being held by experts in and out of the Pentagon who worry the U.S. military is becoming trapped in a no win situation where the harder it hits the insurgents, the stronger they become.
Jamie McIntyre, CNN, the Pentagon.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Documents, of course, tell the story of Iraq from the safety of government buildings here at home. The story, in fact, is being written on the streets of Baghdad, around the country and it suggests a country that grows more dangerous by the day. We say that neither happily nor lightly. It seems the simple truth.
There are too few Americans to secure the place and too few Iraqis ready, willing and able to help, from Baghdad tonight CNN's Walter Rodgers.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RODGERS (voice-over): The two Americans and one British contractor living here believe an Iraqi security guard was protecting them overnight but the guard disappeared, evaporated.
These U.S. soldiers arrived after the three contractors were kidnapped by what neighbors say were eleven armed men. There was no U.S. Army presence, the Army stretched far too thinly to protect much other than themselves.
LT. GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, U.S. ARMY: Well, it's a tough time because we're in a period where the Iraqi security forces still don't have the capabilities that they'll need to take on an even greater share of the load.
RODGERS: There also have been brazen attempts to breach the perimeter of the so-called Green Zone, the highly fortified home of the U.S. and British Embassies and the interim Iraqi government. Questions now exist about whether the Green Zone's perimeter could be defended.
This week's car bombing killing 47 prompted one U.S. general to say he simply cannot provide protection to all of Baghdad. Iraqis have known that for months that wherever they go they could be blown up by car bombs or random mortar fire or kidnapped. The result, the U.S. is losing goodwill rapidly.
ROSEMARY HOLLIS, THE ROYAL INST. OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: You didn't need to create this hornet's nest. You didn't need to incite hatred more than there was already across the region by literally invading and, as far as a lot of Arabs are concerned, raping a country.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
RODGERS: Amid renewed talk of civil war, it's useful to remember little is inevitable and things could improve but, for now, the trend seems to be quite discouraging -- Aaron.
BROWN: Well, let's hope for improvement and try and understand what actually is happening. Are there -- why is it getting -- it's such a simple and I suppose complicated question. Why is it getting worse?
RODGERS: That's a simple and complicated question, Aaron. It's complicated because we don't ever see the entire picture and there are areas of the country where U.S. forces are indeed working to restore medical facilities and help people.
The difficulty, of course, is that every time the insurgents or the terrorists strike in this country they suddenly grab the headlines and rightly or wrongly those headlines, be it a car bombing with 47 people dead, three westerners, two Americans and a British contractor kidnapped today, those headlines give the impression that the tide is running against the Americans here.
It's difficult to say for sure but, again, that latest CIA document confirms pretty much what we have been reporting month after month out of here that the situation appears slowly unraveling -- Aaron.
BROWN: Well, that's a really interesting way to look, it seems to me. I mean it's one thing to say that news headlines create perception and they certainly do and that reality might be different. The object of the exercise we're all engaged in is to try and figure out the realities. Is there any reason to believe the reality is better than the headlines portrayed?
RODGERS: The difficulty in a situation like this, Aaron, is that the perception ultimately becomes the reality. That is to say the perception that Baghdad is not safe. That has become the reality here, whether it's mortars falling in the Green Zone, whether it's car bombs or whether it's three contractors kidnapped.
The perception has become the reality. Baghdad is not safe for westerners and that's probably true all over this country, although we're fairly restricted these days because of the security situation having deteriorated so badly. We just don't travel that much -- Aaron.
BROWN: Thank you. It's an insane catch-22 all around. Walter, thank you, stay safe, Walter Rodgers in Baghdad.
Whatever the realities on the ground, whatever sober assessments the intelligence community is writing they hardly seem to make their way into the president's campaign speeches these days on the stump. The president talks of progress and elections and honor and Saddam. He also speaks of his opponent.
Here's our Senior White House Correspondent John King.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): A picture perfect moment for a Republican president looking to keep Minnesota and other Democratic strongholds in the Midwest on his campaign roadmap.
BUSH: As we're coming down the pike there's no doubt in my mind with your help we will carry the great state of Minnesota.
KING: Small cities, like Rochester, and smaller towns like Blaine (ph) and St. Cloud are critical to Mr. Bush's hopes of putting Minnesota in the Republican column for president for the first time since 1972. They like straight talk in places like this, something the president says they don't get from Democrat John Kerry.
BUSH: Now, during the course of this campaign, the fellow I'm running against has probably had about eight positions on Iraq.
KING: The president talks optimistically of an Iraq fighting for freedom. The insurgency is more and more violent. A new Bush administration intelligence assessment warns of possible civil war.
So, the sharper attacks are no coincidence. The president is trying to stoke doubts about his opponent, just as Senator Kerry calls recent developments proof Mr. Bush's Iraq policy is a failure.
MATTHEW DOWD, CHIEF BUSH CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: And I think in that case when you have difficulty, the public is going to decide -- side with somebody that's decisive as opposed to somebody that's indecisive.
KING: Rochester is home of the Mayo Clinic, health care not only the big industry here but also the big issue the state Democratic chairman thinks will prove decisive come November.
MIKE ERLANDSON, MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC CHAIRMAN: Another 77,000 children in our state that are uninsured that George Bush doesn't have a plan to address and John Kerry does.
KING: Organizing a state Democrats cannot afford to lose is both hands-on and high tech. Four hundred and fifty phone calls a night now from this small county Democratic office alone. Barcodes used to build a database of undecided voters who then get special attention.
LYNN WILSON, MINNESOTA DEMOCRATIC CHAIRWOMAN: That's how John Kerry won and I think that's how he's going to win here in Minnesota.
KING: Mr. Bush lost by two percentage points here four years ago and by even smaller margins in Iowa and Wisconsin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: And, if he wins any one or all three of those states this time, Aaron, officials say it will be for two reasons, one because of a conservative shift underway in rural and small town communities and, two, because this president somehow manages to keep the upper hand in a political debate over Iraq that even many Republicans now concede this incumbent president should not be winning -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, did they address at all the intelligence report today? Did he address it either publicly, did aides talk about it, what are they saying about it?
KING: The president did not. His aides did say, as Jamie McIntyre noted, that, yes, it was pessimistic, yes, it presents a bleak outlook but that they believe it is one outlook and that there are other options and there is some evidence that it's favorable.
The White House understands the report is quite damning and essentially says that after all this time, all these troops in Iraq, the situation is getting worse not better.
From a political standpoint, White House aides say they need to keep pressing ahead. They say you can't give in to the bad news. You have to keep pressing ahead and they're hoping for this.
The prime minister of Iraq, Mr. Allawi, is coming to Washington next week. He will address a joint session of Congress. The White House is hoping that you have a rally around the leader, if you will here in the United States that Mr. Allawi is impressive.
He will make an impressive case and if the American people say we need to stick with this guy then Mr. Bush is hoping they also say we need to stick with him as well -- Aaron.
BROWN: John, thank you, John King on the road with the president these days in Rochester, Minnesota tonight.
Iraq is hardly easier for Senator Kerry than for the president these days. Most of the week he's avoided discussing it at all but he did today at a gathering of National Guardsmen and women in Las Vegas, the same group that warmly received the president a couple of days ago.
And, as the president was questioning the Senator's judgment on Iraq, the Senator was questioning the president's honestly. Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's make him the next president of the United States.
LOTHIAN (voice-over): An enthusiastic reception for Senator John Kerry at a rally in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know you have the biggest hot air balloon festival in the world here and it is not to be confused with the Cheney-Bush campaign which is the second biggest hot air festival in America.
LOTHIAN: Hours earlier, a lukewarm response from National Guard members in Las Vegas to his attacks on President Bush.
KERRY: I believe that the president failed that fundamental test of leadership. He failed to tell you the truth. You deserve better.
LOTHIAN: Kerry, who has spent much of the week trying to focus his campaign on so-called pocketbook issues is also aggressively turning up the heat on the president's record in Iraq, hoping to draw a clearer contrast for voters.
KERRY: Today because of those wrong choices, America has borne 90 percent of the casualties and paid nearly 90 percent of the bill in Iraq. Contrast that with the first Gulf War where our allies paid 95 percent of the cost.
LOTHIAN: Kerry cited a "New York Times" story on weeks of intelligence reports that the Bush mission in Iraq is in serious trouble to bolster his claim that the president has repeatedly ignored such warnings in the face of convincing evidence.
KERRY: You deserve a president who isn't going to gild that truth or gild our national security with politics, who is not going to ignore his own intelligence, who isn't going to live in a different world of spin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LOTHIAN: The Bush campaign says that Kerry is resorting to personal attacks, Monday morning quarterbacking, defeatism and pessimism and "that's not a strategy for victory" -- Aaron.
BROWN: Obviously, you go to the National Guard, you talk about national security. Did the campaign continue this talk of Iraq? Did it continue to bring up the NIE report today as the day went on?
LOTHIAN: That was pretty much the only reference that we heard to that report. It was when he was speaking to the National Guard members in Nevada. But the campaign says that what they want to do is focus on these pocketbook issues, on health care, on the economy and those are the issues that you'll see going forward. They will bring some other issues out tomorrow but that's what they're focusing on -- Aaron.
BROWN: Dan, thank you, good to see you, Dan Lothian in Albuquerque tonight.
Ahead on the program the hurricane, of course, Hurricane Ivan now just a tropical storm but oh what it left behind. How much damage is the question for residents in several states and we'll take a look.
And, the president's National Guard service and the debate over the debate over the debate over the documents.
From New York this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Ivan is a hurricane no more tonight but when it came ashore early this morning, the storm was nothing short of ferocious. At least eight people were killed when Ivan blew through the region, a million and a half people spending the night in the dark in shelters, elsewhere, the full extent of the damage just beginning to emerge.
CNN's Anderson Cooper rode out the storm in Mobile, Alabama and filed again tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER (voice-over): Ivan the hurricane proved terrible indeed, tearing into Gulf Shores, Alabama as a Cat 3 storm, ransacking homes or reducing them to rubble all along the Gulf Coast.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mother Nature is something not to be messed with. That's for sure.
COOPER: Flooding and damage are widespread and like the storm itself exceptionally intense. Insured losses alone are estimated in the billions. Ivan left some bridges in Florida and Alabama impassable. Signs are down. Trees are down. So are power lines. Ivan's ferocity knocked out electricity to more than a million people in Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That was the scariest thing I ever seen in my life. I won't never stay home again.
COOPER: Alabama's coastline braved a direct hit.
GOV. BOB RILEY (R), ALABAMA: We knew it was going to be brutal. We knew it was going to be huge. We knew it was going to affect almost the entire state.
COOPER: Flooding on its Barrier Islands is catastrophic.
LEANNE RILES, BALDWIN COUNTY EMA DIRECTOR: The majority of the condos and single homes, rental homes, Orange Beach all the way down to what was the (UNINTELLIGIBLE). It is no longer there. I just can't express the devastation that's there.
COOPER: To the west, coastal Mississippi was not spared from the destruction. Many businesses and homes have been damaged. But it was Florida's panhandle, already storm weary from two recent hurricanes, that was pummeled by Ivan's punishing winds.
GOV JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: The larger Pensacola area appears to have experienced the brunt of the storm.
COOPER: Thousands of National Guard troops have been called up as recovery operations in Florida begin anew.
MARTY EVANS, PRES., AMERICAN RED CROSS: Our post disaster efforts will focus in on helping people get shelter, get clothing, get some very basic household requirements and then provide mental health support.
COOPER: Once ashore, Ivan lost some of its punch and was downgraded to a tropical storm. It continues to dump torrential rains across the southeastern U.S. causing more flooding, downing trees and power lines in Georgia.
KEN GRAHAM, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: I can't stress enough how dangerous Ivan remains.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: Here in Gulf Shores, Alabama, no one was killed thankfully but storm surge was a major issue. A (UNINTELLIGIBLE) foot wall of water came (UNINTELLIGIBLE) seven blocks from the shore. The water came all the way up here. It's now receded into the area I am in but you can still see it over there. It's on the highway. There shouldn't be any water there at all.
And, Aaron, to add insult to injury, the zoo here, which had been evacuated, a few animals were left behind, there are about six alligators, which have gotten loose. One of them is 1,000 pounds. Its name is Chucky and police are very interested in finding it -- Aaron. BROWN: Well, look out for alligators on top of everything else -- Anderson. Thank you, Anderson Cooper in Gulf Shores, Alabama, my goodness.
Hurricanes frequently spawn tornadoes. Ivan sure did. In one sense, storms do not discriminate putting anything and everything in their path in danger but some places, some homes are more vulnerable than others, some choices riskier than others as well.
Here's CNN's David Mattingly.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In pitch darkness, the unmistakable roar of wind told Nikki Dawsey something terrible had happened. Just down the road the double wide mobile home of her aunt and uncle, Melvin and Frances Terry (ph) of Calhoun County, Florida was caught in the path of an Ivan spawned tornado.
NIKKI DAWSEY, TORNADO SURVIVOR: Oh, they were good people. They were good people. They would help anybody in this world no matter who they were or how bad they were. They were good people.
MATTINGLY: Dawsey's uncle died at the scene, as did her cousin Donna. Her aunt and two other cousins were badly injured. Their home was utterly shattered. Finding something to salvage was almost impossible.
(on camera): These cement posts are all that's left of the couple's home. According to family members, they had been through storms before and this time they thought they'd be OK. But when the tornado hit, it picked up their home and threw it over there into the neighbor's house.
(voice-over): The neighbors, who also decided to stay, survived. In all, four people were killed in this tiny panhandle community near Blountstown, a place where choosing to stay or go proved for some to be a life or death decision.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's a worrywart.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What did she say to you when she called?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You are crazy to stay in that house. You need to get out and come up here. You're not safe.
MATTINGLY: Chris Ammons (ph) and Santana Sullivan believe they are alive because of a nervous phone call from her mother.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: His soon-to-be mother-in-law called him and told them that they needed to get to the motel and she meant they wanted them at the motel.
MATTINGLY: The couple is due to be married next month and don't intend to let Ivan change their plans. Their wedding rings were lost somewhere inside the rubble of their demolished home. Fortunately, the future they have planned together was not.
David Mattingly, CNN, Blountstown, Florida.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Still to come on NEWSNIGHT tonight, we go back to Iraq, an intelligence report painting the future of the country a bleak one, at least an uncertain one.
And, at the end of the hour, the presses are rolling. The staff is printing. Morning papers come your way.
Around the world this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: One of the staff told me today we had a backlog of about 20 casualty screens.
We return again to Iraq on a day that's given us much to talk about. All week, we have watched the bloody string of attacks on the ground. Tonight, a new document to consider, along with the rest of the mix.
Joining us from Indianapolis, Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana. Among other committees, he serves on the Select Committee on Intelligence. We're always glad to have him with us. And we are tonight.
Good to see you, Senator. Thank you for your time.
SEN. EVAN BAYH (D), INDIANA: Good to be with you, Aaron.
BROWN: Not a lot of good news out of there to report. Your colleague, Senator Hagel, said about the administration's request to shift, what, $3.5, a little more than half of $3.5 billion from reconstruction to security, "It is a sign that we are in big trouble in Iraq."
Do you agree?
BAYH: Well, I think that's apparent Aaron, and I think we -- in some ways, it's a false choice. We shouldn't have to choose between pursuing security for Iraq or economic development. In fact, we need to try to do both.
You're never going to have economic growth without security. On the other hand, you're probably not going to have security unless the Iraqi people feel some prospect for a better, more prosperous Iraq. So I do think this is symbolic of the kind of challenge that we're facing right now.
BROWN: I guess, Senator, the question I'm really trying to understand or what I'm really trying to understand is how it is that a year-plus after the fall of Saddam, with all the money spent, all the troops there, all the casualties suffered, we seem to be in worse shape than we were a year ago.
BAYH: You know, Aaron, it's very troubling and most unfortunate.
In some ways, what we're seeing is that Iraq is not a natural nation state. You have ethnic differences and religious differences. You have radicals from outside the country who have come in to try and disrupt the process of building a free, more prosperous Iraq. Some of the neighbors, Iran and Syria, for example, are not helpful. So there was a window of a couple months immediately following the war when momentum was on our side.
Unfortunately, we have let that dissipate and for a variety of factors, we're facing an insurgency now. And the history of insurgencies, unfortunately, is that they tend to be long, hard slogs. And that is what we're facing now.
BROWN: Is it still inappropriate to use the term Vietnam, to start talking about Vietnam references?
BAYH: Well, Vietnam was a little bit different. That was a national struggle, and we were on the wrong side in that national struggle, or at least the side of -- we did not stand for a legitimate government there.
In Iraq, we are truly trying to stand for the legitimate aspirations of the Iraqi people, but the Iraqi people themselves seem to be divided. As I mentioned, you have Sunni and Shia differences, let alone between the Kurds and the Islamic population -- or the Arab population rather. So it is a fractured society. And then what we're also seeing, Aaron, is that a small -- or a relatively small number of violent people who are simply dedicated to preventing the creation of a stable government can undermine progress, even if the vast majority of people want to have progress.
BROWN: You know, that last part of the sentence, Senator, is one of the most interesting things in all of this to me, because -- and I follow this as closely as I can. I don't see the stuff that you see.
But I wonder why it is that Iraqis, who, after all, we did liberate from a truly reprehensible government, why Iraqis are not more supportive, are not more helpful, are not more willing to fight for their country. It doesn't seem to me they're doing a very good job of it.
BAYH: Well, this is an example of no good deed going unpunished, isn't it?
We were temporarily welcomed as liberators, but that seemed to last for the blink of an eye. And it's irrational to my way of thinking, Aaron, and I'm sure to the American people, here, where we're spilling our blood, we're spending our treasure on behalf of the people of Iraq, but there doesn't seem to be that much gratitude.
But I will say this. An increasing number of Iraqis have shown that they are willing to lay down their lives for their country. These young men who were lined up to become police officers who were brutally murdered, the police officers who were slain in the shooting earlier this week, there are a number who are willing to stand up and fight.
And that's why I think it's important, even if it's an imperfect election this coming January, that we go forward as best we can with the electoral process, because, ultimately, it's the Iraqi people who need to create freedom and prosperity for themselves with our assistance. It is not enough that only Americans are willing to fight and die.
And once they have a legitimate government of their own, perhaps even more of them will be willing to do that.
BROWN: Well, respectfully, truly, we heard that about sovereignty, be that as it may, the...
BAYH: Well...
BROWN: The secretary-general today said he had some doubts about the possibility of being able to pull off a credible election by January. I think the word here is credible. I think, obviously, if we want, we can pull off an election.
But you have got a chunk of the country in the Sunni Triangle. It's hard to imagine how you do that. There are questions about whether the Sadr part of the Shia movement gets to play in the political process. Do you really believe we can pull off a credible election by January?
BAYH: I don't think it's a panacea, Aaron. And I don't think it will be a perfect election, certainly by our definition.
But the question is whether some legitimacy, some democracy is better than none. I think, if we just keep postponing it, then we give the radicals every incentive to keep disrupting the process. So, you know, it's not a perfect situation and -- but it's the best that we can do. I think we're facing a difficult situation, as you mentioned at the top, and we're going to have to take this a step at a time.
It is very slow going. And I think the intelligence report that you mentioned that has recently come to the public's attention is the end of our illusions about this process. It's going to be difficult.
BROWN: Just a final -- a final question.
Do you think -- you're out there campaigning these days. You're talking to constituents. Do your constituents feel that they were told honestly and directly what a war in Iraq would mean before that war started?
BAYH: Many of them do not, Aaron. Many of them had no idea about the costs involved. Many of them believed, as we had been indicated, that we would be welcomed as liberating heroes. And I don't think that many people thought in depth about this. And I've done my own soul-searching. And I think, looking back -- my colleague from Indiana, Dick Lugar, was very thoughtful about this. And the importance of insisting upon a plan, not just to win the war, but to win the peace following the war, was vitally important. And I simply don't think that there was ever a well-thought-out plan or, if there was, it has been executed with much competence. And people are beginning to realize that now, and there's great deal of frustration.
But I'd also say, Aaron, that there's a recognition that even though this is a difficult spot and a lot of reason for pessimism, at this point, regardless of whether you were for or against what has been done, we need to do what we can to see it through to an acceptable conclusion, because chaos in a place just utterly breaking apart would not be in anyone's best interests.
BROWN: Any regrets about your own vote authorizing the president to take the country to war?
BAYH: Well, I've done a lot of soul-searching about that, too. I think it's good that Saddam is not there with his tyranny. I think that it is good that we are attempting to stand for the right things.
But, you know, if I had known at the time, Aaron, that there was not a plan for winning the peace or that it would have been executed so poorly, I would have had other thoughts, perhaps. And I think, in retrospect, we should have insisted on such a plan before going forward.
BROWN: Senator, as we said at the beginning, you are a welcome guest here. We appreciate your time and your candor tonight. Thank you very much.
BAYH: Thank you, Aaron.
BROWN: Senator Evan Bayh, Democratic senator in the state of Indiana.
Still to come on the program, the president's National Guard service. The document story continues. Who gave them to CBS? Are they real? You know the questions and you know the program.
This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: We have talked over the last weeks, months, year about Sadr City. It's time to show it to you. This sprawling slum is home to over 2.5 million people outside of Baghdad. The U.S. hasn't been able to rebuild there, so Iraqis still live in very, very tough conditions. And this climate has created futile recruiting ground for one side, just one side, of the insurgency.
Here's CNN's Diana Muriel.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DIANA MURIEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Welcome to Sadr City, 15 square miles of open sewers, rubbish strewn streets, home to probably the most deprived community in Iraq. People here live a hand-to-mouth existence, picking through the trash for something of value. Grazing their animals on what is left.
Ahmed Hatam's (ph) story is typical; 30 years old, he has three kids and no full-time job, relying on the support of his family to get by, all living together in this small house.
"We work just to be able to feed our families," he says. "If you don't work, you starve."
The situation here is miserable. Diseases are rampant. The water is repulsive. Even an animal wouldn't drink it.
Bullet-ridden walls and shrapnel-torn gates bear witness to the nightly clashes between insurgents and the American forces that patrol these streets.
The elders of the community have gathered here to mourn the dead. 20- year-old Khafan Al Martiqi (ph) died fighting American forces here in Sadr City together with his friend. His brothers-in-arms come to pay their respects, each one a fighter in Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army.
The faces of the so-called martyrs who have died fighting here adorn the walls where groups of unemployed young men gather to talk.
25-year-old Haider Jabal Salman (ph) is one of them.
"You ask why are we fighting the Americans, why have we started to hate them," he says. "Because they gave us nothing. We were happy when Saddam fell, but the Americans gave us nothing."
But U.S. forces say the fighting has forces a halt to the good work they were trying to do here. This officer blames Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army.
LT. COL. GARY VOLESKY, 2ND BATTALION, 5TH CAVALRY: We were making great strides in returning essential services to the people in sewage, water and electricity and picking up the trash. My assessment is that they do not want us to succeed here.
MURIEL (on camera): So while U.S. forces concentrate their efforts on securing Sadr City, the suffering of its 2.5 million people continues. It's a catch-22 situation: no peace, no improvements; no improvements, no peace. How the stalemate can be broken remains unclear.
Diana Muriel, CNN, Sadr City, Iraq.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: There are a lot of catch-22s out there.
Ahead on the program, the latest on the documents, CBS and the president. A break first.
This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, we're no closer tonight to knowing if the documents used by CBS News a week ago in its "60 Minutes" report on the president's National Guard service are real or fake. There is certainly nothing new out there supporting their authenticity. The network says it, too, is investigating, even as it continues to report on questions regarding how Mr. Bush got into the Guard and what he did while he was there.
What CBS has not done is revealed who gave it the documents, though theories abound.
Here's CNN's Jeanne Meserve.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: (voice- over): This Kinko's in Abilene, Texas, could shed some light on how the disputed documents came to CBS. Two people who looked at documents for CBS tell CNN they bore signs of having been faxed from there.
EMILY WILL, DOCUMENT EXAMINER: It says Kinko's of Abilene clearly on one and less clearly on the other.
MESERVE: It has not been determined who did that faxing or if that person was CBS' source. The Kinko's isn't far from the home of Bill Burkett, named by "Newsweek" and other news organizations as a possible source. Burkett has had a longstanding feud with the Texas National Guard, including a lawsuit, and with former Governor George W. Bush.
In the past, Burkett has alleged that Bush supporters purged potentially damaging information from Bush's military records.
BILL BURKETT, FORMER TEXAS NATIONAL GUARDSMAN: And the bottom line to that was make sure there wasn't anything there that would embarrass the governor.
MESERVE: Former Bush aide Joe Allbaugh has called the charges nonsense. Is Burkett the source? No one has said that they saw Burkett fax the documents and Burkett isn't talking. His lawyer, David Van Os, declined to tell "The New York Times" if Burkett had played a role, but said: "The possibility that Bill Burkett would falsify any documents or falsify any story is zero."
Though CBS is now acknowledging that there are valid questions about the documents, it released a letter from document examiner James Pierce saying they are authentic. Pierce refused to talk to CNN Thursday, saying the confidentiality agreement prohibited from talking. It is unclear if that agreement is with CBS. A forensics expert finds it unusual that none of the experts used by CBS are accredited by the American Board of Forensic Document Examiners.
JAMES STARRS, PROFESSOR, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: I've been in this business for 30 years, more, and I know most everybody in the field who is highly qualified. And none of these people that you've mentioned are in that category.
Marcel Matley, also consulted by CBS, is qualified as an expert witness in forensic document examination, but his resume also shows a background in graphology, which analyzes handwriting to determine character traits. A spokesman for CBS said Thursday it believes it hired the very best experts.
Jeanne Meserve, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(ROOSTER CROWING)
BROWN: It seems like at least a day or so since I've done this. Time to check morning papers from around the country, around the world. Um -- my mother hates when I say um. My wife isn't too thrilled either.
"Washington Times" starts it off. "Powell Blasts Annan on Iraq." The secretary-general of the U.N., Kofi Annan, said that he thought the war in Iraq was illegal, so Secretary Powell blasts back, "Says War Consistent With International Law." More telling I think was the secretary of state's remark that it just wasn't a very useful thing to say. It doesn't help. It's over. We're already there. How do we get out seems to be the question. They also put the president on the front page. The president in this picture was in beautiful Anoka, Minnesota. And it is.
And you can't really tell, I don't think, but, if you zoom in, you'll see,the president is doing a little product placement there. He's got a Diet Coke in his hand. And given the business news out of Coke today, that was probably welcome product placement.
"The Times-Picayune," one of the great names of a very good newspaper down in New Orleans. "Devastation; 13 Die. Ivan's Tidal Surge Smashes Gulf Shore." Pretty good front page there from "The Times-Picayune."
"The Miami Herald" leads hurricane, too. "A Crushing Blow." And a good picture. In truth, it's hard not to get good pictures out of a hurricane. "Pensacola Feels Storm's Full Fury." A favorite viewer of ours lives down in Pensacola.
Terry (ph), we hope you're doing OK.
"Boston Herald" leads sports. "Get It On." The Red Sox and the Yankees go at it this weekend, so they lead that way. I think they're in New York, right? The series is in New York this weekend, isn't it? Yes. And also sports, kind of. "Kobe's Lurid Tale Revealed: What Bryant Told the Cops." I thought that thing was over.
How we doing on time? Thirty? My goodness.
"Philadelphia Inquirer." "Ivan Cuts Path of Ruin. "Florida Is Hardest Hit, As Gulf Pummeled." I love the word pummeled. I never get to use it. "20 Dead in U.S." Everybody has got a slightly different number on that. Hopefully, the low number will bear out.
"Ivan Wallops South" is the way "The Cincinnati Enquirer" leads.
And we'll end it all with "The Chicago Sun-Times," because that's what we do. "O'Hare Scare. Flock of Birds Damages Jet in Air." Yikes. I've got to fly tomorrow. "Irresistible" is the weather in Chicago tomorrow. And I hope it is out West, where I'm headed.
We'll wrap it up in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: I'm headed out West tomorrow to shoot a story for our trip out West in a couple weeks. So have a good weekend.
We'll see you tomorrow -- or someone will. Good night for all of us.
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