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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

The Question Of Iraq; Interview with John Burns

Aired September 22, 2004 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
We've been asked more than once of late why we spend so much of our hour on Iraq and it's a fair question. The simple answer is the country is at war. One hundred thirty thousand of our young men and women are there in danger every day.

The fact is they will likely face more danger, not less, in the months ahead. We're spending billions of dollars, $200 billion or so, so far and counting, but it isn't just that.

Iraq, I think, is the defining issue of the presidential campaign and ought to be. Iraq, more than anything else, turned an era of shared national purpose and good feeling after 9/11 to an era of especially nasty politics today.

Iraq has changed the view of the United States around the world, some places for the better many places for worse. Whatever your feelings about the war in Iraq, it will be with us for years and years to come.

Iraq and the demands it places, both on the military and the treasury, will impact how we deal with all sort of other problems, domestic and foreign, Iraq, North Korea, to name two. We spend time on Iraq because nothing else out there in our view matters more and we'll spend most of the program on Iraq tonight.

The whip begins in Baghdad, where CNN's Walter Rodgers starts us off with a headline and sets the scene for the hour ahead -- Walt.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Aaron. As the insurgency grows in Iraq it's bringing into sharper focus the fissures and fault lines in Iraqi society raising the questions can you put Humpty together again -- Aaron?

BROWN: Walter, thank you.

On to the Pentagon and a question of strategy, lots of questions and lots of strategy, we'll be talking a lot about strategy tonight, Jamie McIntyre from the Pentagon with a headline -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Aaron these days you don't get much argument from the Pentagon that things have taken a turn for the worse in Iraq but they say they have a clear strategy to deal with it. What's not so clear is whether that strategy will work.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you.

Iraq is shaping up in campaign strategies as well, the issue now dominating the race, our Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield turns his eye to that corner of the story, so Jeff a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Aaron, it's clear this week that the war in Iraq is not simply a campaign issue but more likely the dominant campaign issue. But the argument is about more than the war. It's about which candidate has the character and the leadership credentials to guide this country in a post-9/11 world -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest later in the program.

Also coming up on NEWSNIGHT tonight, the man formerly known as Cat Stevens, does he have ties to terrorist groups? The U.S. government says he does and he is barred from coming into the United States.

And we go back to Iraq and the story of a child named Americas, the name given to her on the day the United States invaded.

And, on special programs and just the regular ones too, we end it all with morning papers, all that and more in the hour ahead.

Much of what we report on tonight will deal with strategies, strategies for military planners, strategies for political candidates, strategies for young soldiers just trying to stay alive.

That is the theme of tonight's reporting, strategies. But to understand the strategies you need to understand first the lay of the land and the lay of the land is shifting like desert sands.

So, we begin with CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): Iraq's Shiite Muslims long an oppressed majority are reasserting themselves, awakening politically. Shiites are part of the kaleidoscope of political forces falling into play in the post-Saddam Iraq.

This great awakening could become a democratic tapestry but it has darker threads. Here they warn there will be rivers of blood if the Americans again attack Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

But in another Shiite demonstration, shouts of "Muqtada is a thief" a reminder Iraqi tribal and religious groupings are ridden with factions. Some here believe the Bush administration's Iraqi experiment in democracy uncorked a dangerous genie.

SAAD NAJI JAWAD, IRAQI ANALYST: This is the chaotic situation the American occupation created in Iraq and this is the thing which is dividing and splitting Iraq into small (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

RODGERS: Each of these Iraqi cities has at one time slipped into or out of coalition control leaving much of the country in the hands of militias. Among the Sunni Muslims, similar tribal fragmenting, warring militias united only in the fight to kill Americans.

The general dislike of the American-installed Iraqi government is a unifying force. This man said, "They're all traitors and spies brought here by the Americans and Jews on their tanks."

Each Iraqi ethnic militia is armed. The Kurdish Peshmerga is 50,000 strong.

ROSEMARY HOLLIS, ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTL. AFFAIRS: Because we'll not go backwards from the autonomous status they've achieved so far, if Iraq begins to fragment into civil strife, the Kurds will simply make a bid for a form of independence.

RODGERS: Iraq has ten main tribes and thousands of clans that might make a three-way Sunni/Shiite/Kurdish split look tidy compared to total social fragmentation.

(on camera): Imagine trying to draw a map of Iraq delineating which tribes and which militias control this country and you come up with a patchwork quilt which may be why some critics suggest Washington should have left well enough alone here.

HOLLIS: It would be a brave person who talked about democracy, free market system and peace, calm and security in Iraq just around the corner now. I think expectations have been much lowered.

RODGERS (voice-over): Now, the American experiment in Iraq seems to hinge on upcoming national elections as the only alternative to a slide into civil war.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS: The genie is certainly out of the bottle here in Iraq now and, if truth be told, no one knows how this experiment is going to end -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walter, the Iraqi government has made a judgment not to even -- not to try to even disband all of these militias, all the varied militias with the exception I guess of the Sadr militia.

RODGERS: That's true at this point but, remember, that the new Iraqi interim government is still an appendage of the Bush administration in Washington and more specifically of Donald Rumsfeld's Department of Defense.

You could not possibly, with the amount of troops here, which is a few number of troops in Iraq, disband all those militias. There are 50,000 Peshmergas. That is the Kurdish militia in the north and those people are not going to be disbanded by anybody. There will be a full shooting war up there if what the Americans try here run afoul of Kurdish national aspirations.

You have essentially a civil war raging right now in the Sunni Triangle. You have cities there in which the Americans can't go. Witness the terrible fighting overnight or yesterday in Sadr City with the Shiites.

There earlier this week you had an assassination of two Sunni Muslim sheiks, religious leaders. They were killed in a Shiite neighborhood. It smells like civil war. We aren't there yet but it is not a good picture -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walter, thank you as always.

And we will return to our reporting on Iraq as we go along in the program and stay there for most of the way but, as always is the case around here, there are a number of other stories that we need to try and get in, even on nights like this for us.

And we begin with CBS News. Today the network named two prominent people to investigate its "60 Minutes" report on President Bush's National Guard service during Vietnam, specifically the documents, the memos.

Dick Thornburgh, the former governor of Pennsylvania and a former U.S. Attorney General under both Presidents Reagan and the first George Bush will work along with Louis Boccardi, a retired president and chief executive officer of the Associated Press, AP. Their job is to determine what errors occurred in the preparation of the report and what action should follow.

On balance it's been a pretty awful day and an awful week for CBS, so add this to it. The brief flash of singer Janet Jackson's breast during last year's Super Bowl halftime show back in February today begat one of the largest fines ever imposed by the FCC.

Viacom, which owns CBS, will have to pay $550,000 for the lapse which aired on 20 CBS-owned stations. CBS stations who are affiliated with the network but have separate owners were not fined.

Some day we may know exactly why the man who used to be known as Cat Stevens, the singer and songwriter, was pulled off an airplane last night heading for Washington and sent back to London today. The government says it was a perfect, well near perfect example of the way the no-fly list should work.

Here's CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): His supporters say he's known for advocating peace but U.S. officials say recent information suggests Yusef Islam has knowingly financed terrorists through Muslim charities and is knowingly associated with potential terrorists but officials would provide no specifics.

TOM RIDGE, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: Celebrity or an unknown, our job within Homeland Security is to act on information that others have given us. In this instance, there was some relationship between the name and terrorist activity that led to this individual's name being on that no-fly list and the appropriate action was taken. ARENA: Islam, who is a British citizen, was not stopped before boarding the London to Washington flight. Instead, the plane was forced to land in Maine. The reason, sources say his name, which was recently added to the watch list, was misspelled.

ARSALAN IFTKHAR, COUNCIL ON AMERICAN-ISLAMIC RELATIONS: Mr. Islam has always categorically denied the fact that he has ever knowingly given any money or support to any terrorist group and we are here today to say that if, in fact, these allegations were true by the government, why wasn't Mr. Islam arrested?

ARENA: Formerly known as Cat Stevens, Islam became Muslim in 1977 and founded a Muslim school in London. But this is not the first time he's been accused of financing terrorists. He was denied entry into Israel at least twice for allegedly supporting Hamas.

Still, his supporters describe him as a moderate and point to his official Web site on which he has consistently opposed terrorist acts. He even donated some music royalties to September 11th families.

(on camera): But good deeds do not get you off watch lists and U.S. officials say they're confident the information that put Islam on one is credible.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A couple of other things that made news around the country today, Yasser Hamdi (ph), the first person designated as an enemy combatant in the war on terror has been cleared to go home after three years in custody. He was never charged with a crime.

Under an agreement reached with the Justice Department, Mr. Hamdi, a Saudi national born in the United States, will return to Saudi Arabia by the end of the month.

He'll have to renounce any claim to U.S. citizenship and abide by tight travel restrictions. In a milestone ruling earlier this year, the Supreme Court said Mr. Hamdi had the right to challenge his ongoing detention.

Also today a military judge dropped an espionage charge against a Muslim interpreter accused of spying at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay. In return, Senior Airmen Ahmed al-Hallabi pleaded guilty to four minor charges. It's the third Guantanamo spy case to fall apart this year. The fourth case is pending in Boston.

And, in a 77-17 vote, the Senate today confirmed Porter Goss to be the new director of the CIA. Democrats who fought to block the nomination said the eight-term Republican from Florida is too partisan for the job, a job that all agree requires independence. Representative Goss formerly served in Army intelligence and as a CIA officer.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, a special look at the situation in Iraq. Can an American-style democracy ever flourish in a country fragmented by civil war?

And, the politics of Iraq, how the war is defining the race for the White House.

From New York this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We're still dealing with the first week in September.

Back now, as promised, to Iraq. We start this stretch of the program with a measure of one day, 24 hours in Iraq, 16 months and 21 days after major combat was declared over.

In U.S. military deaths, 1,040 lives ago, the number of Iraqi civilians while impossible to calculate is clearly many times that, so, first the measure of a day, September 22, 2004.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): It is terrible to put it this way but today was just another day in Iraq. Insurgents and Americans fought a day long battle in Sadr City, the sprawling slum controlled by those loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, the battles fought with tanks and F-16s against rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47s.

One American soldier died in Baghdad, victim of a suicide car bomb. Two more died in other cities in the country. Another car bomb devastated a commercial neighborhood apparently targeted at a police recruiting station and a shop where recruits gathered. At least a dozen died there, more than 50 wounded.

That is the big picture today and then there was the intimate agony of those held hostage.

KENNETH BIGLEY, HOSTAGE IN IRAQ: I need you to help me, Mr. Blair, because you are the only person now on God's earth that I can speak to.

BROWN: Kenneth Bigley appeared to the British prime minister in a video posted on an Islamic Web site. The same Web site later showed a video that has become all too horribly familiar, the beheading of his housemate, American contractor Jack Hensley. Hensley's body abandoned in a Baghdad street was formally identified today dashing the last hopes of his family in Georgia.

TY HENSLEY, SLAIN HOSTAGE'S BROTHER: His story will be out for a day or two but the pain is going to be suffered for generations in my family. Jack Hensley was an extraordinarily innocent man. He went over there to provide the money or income for his family as a last resort.

BROWN: Hensley is the second American killed this week by a group led by the Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Eugene Armstrong's headless body was identified a day earlier when their demand to release all Iraqi women held in jail went unmet. According to the coalition, only two women are currently being detained, both of them accused of involvement in Saddam's biological weapons program. There was a period of confusion today as Iraqi authorities appeared to announce that one of the women, the woman known as Dr. Germ, might be released soon. American officials later said that this was only one step in a long legal process of dealing with high value detainees and no release would happen soon.

And, at the U.N., the secretary of state reiterated the position of the American, the British and the Iraqi governments.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: My heart goes out to their families when I consider the manner of their death and I extend deepest condolences to the families. But if there's one thing we've learned over time, it's that you can't negotiate with these kinds of terrorists. You can't give in to them because all it does is incentivize them to do it again.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: One day in Iraq, a fairly typical day these days.

As we said earlier, much of what we report tonight deals with strategies. There's no single strategy for Iraq. There can't be. One part is political, one part military, one part hope that Iraqis themselves will decide to fight for their country.

But the enemy gets a vote in this too and the enemy decided long ago it couldn't win a conventional war against a great super power but an insurgency, now that is another matter or so they think. So, how do you deal with that?

From the Pentagon tonight CNN's Jamie McIntyre.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): The U.S. strategy is to wait several months for more Iraqi forces to finish training so they can lead the way in retaking insurgent strongholds like Fallujah. The approach is rooted in the belief that only an Iraqi solution can produce a lasting peace.

But the practical effect is to allow anti-U.S. militants, including followers of terrorist leader Abu Musab Zarqawi, to use Fallujah as a base of operations for kidnappings, beheadings and car bombings.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: These people cannot beat us militarily and so they use the only tool at their disposal, which is beheadings and death to try to shake our will.

MCINTYRE: But waiting for Iraq's military to mature has also forced the U.S. to resort to not always precise air strikes to target insurgent safe houses. The U.S. claims hundreds of insurgents have been killed but so have innocent civilians, which only fuels support for the terrorists. It's a problem military thinkers argue that simply cannot be solved militarily.

COL. THOMAS HAMMES, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY: You cannot win an insurgency by simply killing more insurgents. I think the Soviets pretty much proved that in Chechnya and Afghanistan.

MCINTYRE: Marine Colonel Thomas Hammes is a senior military fellow at the National Defense University. He's written a book on dealing with insurgencies.

HAMMES: Insurgencies are long wars. A short insurgency lasts ten to 12 years. A long insurgency is 30 to 35 years. The Vietnamese fought for 30 years. The Palestinians have been at it since 1968.

So, if you keep those two points in mind that it's essentially a political struggle and it's a very long term struggle, then it changes your strategy. You don't worry so much about what happens this week. You're looking long term.

MCINTYRE: But the U.S. and Iraq's interim government are looking short term, pinning hopes for nationwide elections in January on Iraq's ability, with U.S. help, to launch a series of offensives before the end of the year to regain control of a number of enemy enclaves in the so-called Sunni Triangle, including Fallujah, Samarra and provincial capitals Baquba and Ramadi.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld scoffs at predictions, insisting how long the insurgency will last is unknowable.

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: I think anyone who pulls a number out of midair and says it will take one year or five years or ten years must have mystical powers that most people don't have.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: The lynchpin of the U.S. strategy is getting enough motivated and well-trained Iraqi troops so that the average Iraqi doesn't believe that the U.S. is running the show. But given the uneven performance of troops in the recent past, the idea that they could route the insurgents in just four months strikes many experts as wishful thinking -- Aaron.

BROWN: Is the thinking there, the thinking -- let me try this differently. The thinking there is not that they have to wipe out the insurgency in four months, correct?

MCINTYRE: Well, that they need to establish enough local control in these areas that they can have legitimate elections.

BROWN: And so, I mean no one believes, I've yet to run into anyone who believes that in February, for example, Iraq is going to be some grand, peaceful, wonderful, heavenly place. With luck there will be elections at the end of January that people will find credible.

MCINTYRE: Yes, well they're also hoping that in places like Fallujah, for instance, that when you walk out the door you won't see bands of insurgents roaming that you'll see Iraqi police, that there will be an Iraqi governor who has some reporting to the central government.

BROWN: Yes.

MCINTYRE: That there will be some control. The insurgency will still be going on. Nobody believes that's going to be defeated in four months.

BROWN: Jamie, thanks, good to see you again, Jamie McIntyre from the Pentagon tonight.

For soldiers on the ground the strategy is a whole lot more simple. Find a way to do the job and stay alive. Depending where in the country you are, the challenge is different. Some places you can help rebuild Iraqi society. Some places the best way to stay alive is to blow something or someone up.

Jane Arraf tonight on soldiers, strategy in the field.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): It's a different view at ground level. American soldiers actually fighting the war in Iraq aren't paying much attention to the debate raging over it.

SGT. DAVID PARKER, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: Personally, we came here to do a job and, like I said, the job we're doing is pretty much good.

ARRAF: Sergeant Parker's job is a lot more than getting shot at or shooting people (UNINTELLIGIBLE) start paying much attention to politics either.

Specialist Jeremy Rice from Ohio is turning 21 this week. It's the first time he'll be able to vote but he doesn't plan to.

SPC. JEREMY RICE, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: That's a tough choice right there on who. I haven't really been able to follow the news at all, so I don't know which way to go.

ARRAF: As for the news from Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, on most days there's either none filtering to the outside world or, like today, bad news that a U.S. soldier has been killed near Tikrit.

But just a few miles away it's as if it never happened. Soldiers say the streets they're patrolling are safer and more prosperous than they'd been. Here in Saddam Hussein's hometown, the 1st Infantry Division spends a lot of time getting to know the people whose city they're living in.

First Battalion 18th Infantry Company Commander Aaron Coombs stops to talk to a carpet dealer to get his view on life here. He tells the captain that what they need are jobs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have money, people can work and get money life can be better.

ARRAF: It's still dangerous.

CPT. AARON COOMBS, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: It's not a daily gunfight here in Tikrit anyway but it does happen. It's still a very lethal place.

ARRAF: Two weeks ago the company medic was killed near here but with so much else going on the steady drip of deaths doesn't seem to overshadow the progress they believe they've helped make.

COOMBS: I think if you talk to a lot of people, even here in Tikrit, somebody who is honest with himself will tell you that things are better now, although there are problems than there were a year ago.

ARRAF: Most of these soldiers say that makes it worth it.

Jane Arraf, CNN, Tikrit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jon Powers spent 14 months in Iraq, U.S. Army captain. He went to war and, as all who go to war, came back a changed man. We met his unit a month or so ago in a documentary called "Gunner's Palace." Today, we met him.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: You signed up for the ROTC when you were a high school kid.

JON POWERS, SPENT 14 MONTHS IN IRAQ: Yes.

BROWN: Knowing what you know now, having experienced what you experienced, having changed in the way you changed, would you do it again?

POWERS: I would do it again only because I wouldn't want my brother to have to do it or I wouldn't want those terrorists to come here and fight the way they were fighting. But if I went back to see myself when I was 17 years old, I might wave myself off and sign the contract and think about it. But it's been quite an experience, quite an experience, something that's changed me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jon and I talked for a good while this afternoon and we talked about how things seem to have changed in Iraq from welcoming to hostility. We talked of his fallen comrades. We talked of his idealism. He was terrific and we'll air the complete interview on the program tomorrow, "A Soldier's Story" on NEWSNIGHT.

Coming up tonight still, the story of Americas, a young girl named after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAT BUCHANAN, AUTHOR, "WHERE THE RIGHT WENT WRONG": It appears to me that the insurgency is growing in numbers and strength and incidents of attacks. And the reason for the insurgency is the vast presence of American troops in Iraq. What I would do if I were president is call all the commanders together in the White House situation room right after this election, ask them what is the cost in blood and treasure of continuing this? What are the chances of success? Because, in my judgment this is not a doable proposition for 10 years. I would be looking for an exit strategy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Mr. Buchanan is the first of a number of people you'll hear from in the days ahead on what they would do in Iraq.

John Burns joins us tonight. We won't ask him about exit strategy precisely. Before, during and after the war, he has manned the "New York Times" bureau in Baghdad. He's a welcome guest always and is so tonight.

Good to see you, sir.

We've talked in the program tonight a lot about various strategies. Do you see any evidence that the Iraqis are better- prepared to wage their own fight against the insurgency?

JOHN BURNS, BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": As of right now, I wouldn't say we do.

I think that the -- the fair answer, and certainly the answer that you would get from American commanders is that the answer to that lies probably about two to three months down the road, as the training up of the Iraqi National Guard, the police and the new army battalions reaches a kind of critical mass.

If we look back at what happened in the spring, when the training was knock like as rigorous as it is now, when nothing like as much money had been devoted to it, of course, many of those units disintegrated or simply sat down, at best, when the challenge came from Muqtada al-Sadr's insurgency then. If we had to guess how it's going to go, I think most of us would say that even regarded only as the point of the spear in attacks on cities like Fallujah and Samarra, it's doubtful, as it seems to us, that they will be as successful as is presently hoped.

But let's wait and see. The training is certainly very rigorous. America sent the general who, up until now, will probably be regarded as the most successful general it's had here, General David Petraeus, formerly here as commander of the 101st Airborne Division. He's confident. But, as they say, the proof remains in the eating of the pudding.

BROWN: Yes. And I guess, at some point, the question will be, regardless of how well-trained they are and regardless of how terrific the officers are and their weapons are and all the rest, will they stand and fight other Iraqis?

BURNS: It's an extremely hard proposition.

And like so many other things that have occurred here in the past 17 months since the U.S.-led invasion, I think that we have to look beyond the number of weapons and beyond some of the more objective factors on the ground at very complicated questions of history, culture and, perhaps, above all, a traumatized psychology.

You have to remember what happened to these people under Saddam Hussein, the brutality that was visited on them. The very thing that we, most of us who were here at that time, feel should motivate Iraqis to stand up has proven, in effect, to be the one thing that makes many of them very passive in the face of the sorts of challenges that we've seen in Baghdad this week.

BROWN: Have you figured out why that is?

BURNS: Well, you and I haven't been bludgeoned in the way that Iraqis were, stripped, disempowered completely, held in a terrible -- I actually talked on your program about this before -- held in a degree of fear that we in the West find unimaginable, that I, personally, after 30 years of traveling in some of the nastiest places in the world, found quite unique here.

And I think we have to weigh that. And I think, in the end, the course of this war is going to lie in the power of American forces here, as it has from the beginning.

BROWN: Just quickly, you think elections can happen at the end of January?

BURNS: As matters stand right now, I think it's highly unlikely. There are many bridges to be crossed between now and then.

But I would say that, if an election were held right in January under the conditions we now see or conditions that may yet be worse, you'd have a very low turnout. And you only have to ask yourself one question. If you have voters lined up outside a polling station, what reason would these insurgents not have to drive decide bombers right into the midst of them, as they do now, into crowds elsewhere?

BROWN: John, it's good to see you. Stay safe there -- John Burns.

BURNS: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: Thank you, the bureau chief of "The New York Times" in Baghdad.

And I must say, John has filed some extraordinary pieces out of there in the last 17 months and even before the invasion, long before the invasion.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, the politics of Iraq, how it is shaping the presidential race here. And from the race to the White House to the politics in your region, they sometimes crop up in morning papers, don't they? We'll take a look at those as well.

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We over- Americanized the conflict. We were too visible. We became part of the problem itself. The only way we're going to get this under control is to recognize that a policy of indirection, of being less visible, less engaged, perhaps redeploy our troops just in a few bases, and before too long, begin to get out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Just going to throw a lot of different ideas out there in the weeks ahead, give you some things to think about.

Even as the candidates sometimes try to be heard on issues other than Iraq, Iraq is what is getting press. It certainly is from us. President Bush was in Pennsylvania today, said the best way to bring troops home is not to wilt or waver. In Florida, Senator Kerry once again accused the president of being out of touch with the realities of the war in Iraq. And he also insinuated, if Mr. Bush was reelected, he would bring back the draft.

CNN's Jeff Greenfield tonight, more on the politics of the presidency and Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): If there were any doubt, there is none now. The war in Iraq is not just one issue in this campaign. It is the issue. And the differences could not be more clear. For Senator Kerry, the focus is on the conduct of the war and its consequences.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The president claims it is the centerpiece of his war on terror. In fact, Iraq was a profound diversion from that war.

GREENFIELD: The issue, Kerry says, basic competence.

KERRY: His miscalculations were not the equivalent of accounting errors. They were colossal failures of judgment. And judgment is what we look for in a president.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: For President Bush, the Iraq war removed a grave and gathers risk to the United States, a risk he could not ignore.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Do I forget the lessons of September the 11th and take the word of a madman or do I take action and defend our country? Faced with that choice, I will defend our America every time.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: And it is a war where current dilemmas are dwarfed by the prospects for long-term gains.

BUSH: Instead of harboring terrorists, they're fighting terrorist groups.

GREENFIELD (on camera): But this is not just a debate about the conduct of the war. For the candidates, Iraq is a prism through which they ask voters to judge their opponents, to question whether they really understand how to protect this country and its citizens in a post-9/11 world.

(voice-over): The whole message of the Republican Convention and the Bush campaign is that this president is a leader of clear vision, willing to make the tough decisions, even in the face of political costs.

GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: The president did not go into Iraq because the polls told him it was popular. As a matter of fact, the polls said just the opposite.

GREENFIELD: In contrast, says Bush, Kerry has repeatedly changed his mind on Iraq. That's a constant refrain of his on the campaign trail.

BUSH: He is saying he prefers the stability of a dictatorship to the hope and security of democracy. I couldn't disagree more. And not so long ago, so did my opponent.

GREENFIELD: For Kerry, the Bush character flaw is arrogance, a stubborn refusal to listen or to face reality.

KERRY: And this is all the more stunning, because we're not talking about 20/20 hindsight. We're not talking about Monday-morning quarterbacking. Before the war, before he chose to go to war, bipartisan congressional hearings, major outside studies and even some in his own administration predicted virtually every problem that we face in Iraq today.

GREENFIELD: In his indictment, Kerry draws on the increasingly sharp words of Republican senators like Hagel, McCain, Lugar and a recent national intelligence estimate to make his case that things are going badly.

Bush notes that all three of those senators support him and that the CIA estimates are only guesses.

(on camera): But the fundamental split goes to the clearly dominant factor in this campaign, the battle against terror that, ever since September 11, has made the citizens of this superpower feel personally vulnerable. If voters see the Iraq war as part of the greater battle on terror that has made us safer, Bush wins. If they see it as a costly diversion that has made us less safe, Kerry wins. Campaign issues don't get much clearer than that.

Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead on the program, still another piece of the Iraqi stories. Goodness, there are many. Ten Iraqi civilians share the details of their lives in still photos.

A break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We've often said the war in Iraq is many stories. And it is. Our job is to try and give voice to all of them over time. It's easy to forget that along with the bombing and the bloodshed, life in Iraq is also filled with the ordinary and struggle to preserve it.

That story is the focus of an exhibit at New York University's Tisch School of the Arts. It is a story we tell in pictures tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRED RITCHIN, DIRECTOR, PIXELPRESS: The Daylights Community Arts Foundation is a small group that believes in doing documentary differently. So they had the idea of giving 10 disposable cameras to civilians in Iraq. And out of that, we found 30 very, very strong images that could be used for this exhibition.

The people given cameras in Iraq were people known to several foreign journalists who were coming in and to the people they already knew in Iraq. And they were selected to get a cross-section of some extent of the Iraqi people. So you get a third-year English student from the University of Baghdad, a guy who lives in a garbage dump. You get somebody who's a dentist. They were told that explicitly that this is an opportunity to send a message to the American people, to tell them what is going on in Iraq, what is Iraq like, what are some of the hopes and wishes and desires of the people in Iraq?

By giving the disposable cameras to the civilians, they themselves were able to photograph their friends, their neighbors, their own family and their own point of view. Just these little 10 disposable cameras are enough for me to understand that there's a huge slice of the society that I know very, very little about, with all the coverage that I've seen.

So, this documentary exploration becomes one of saying, this is what our society is to us. Do not define us by explosions, by pictures of military, by pictures of insurgents. But define us by our daily lives.

There's a photograph of people living in a very poor neighborhood who named their child Americas on the day of the U.S. invasion. There's a child who has a very serious medical deformity. There's a young woman who is flirtatious. There's kids going to school. There's a guy working in the street. There's people in Fallujah burying their own dead. There's a combination of the very daily kinds of things and some of the more extraordinary things that happen in Iraq.

When you see the guy building or carrying bricks or the boy in a schoolyard or the young woman sort of smiling, then you realize it's another society that's human and noble and wonderful. It's wonderful to have snapshots that say, forget the spectacular. Forget the shocking. Look at the everyday. And maybe that way, in fact, we'll learn more about what's going on in Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(ROOSTER CROWING)

BROWN: All right, time to check the morning papers from around the country, around the world.

"Christian Science Monitor" leads politics. "Why Women Are Edging Toward Bush." This is the so-called security mom story that everybody seems to be writing about. And also down at the bottom, "In Shark Tank, a Great White Survives. A Great White in Captivity Could Offer New Insights" -- I don't like that word -- "New Insights on the Mysterious and Feared Creature." I don't know. It amused me.

Nothing amusing about any of the British papers. The headlines are horrible. They're terrific and horrible, if you know what I mean. "Mr. Blair, I Don't Want to Die. Help Me See My Wife and Son Again." This is the British hostage, Ken Bigley in "The Guardian."

"The Times" leads likewise, "The British Times." "I Need You to Help Me Now, Mr. Blair, Because You're the Only Person on God's Earth Who Can." It's nuts over there.

"The Dayton Daily News," I like this paper a lot. "FCC Slaps Cbs With $550,000 Super Fine." This strikes me as over the top, but it's just my opinion, OK? And down at the bottom, the story we all care most about in our heart of hearts: "Twinkie Maker Seeks Chapter 11." Is that Intercontinental? Interstate Bakeries. Anyway, the people who invented the Twinkie going under. Atkins gets them all.

How much time? Fifteen? Oh, my goodness.

"Philadelphia Inquirer." "In Haiti, a Rush For Food. Death Toll in Haiti From the Flooding Tops 1,000," I do believe. That's a horrible story.

And let's just go to "The Chicago Sun-Times." I have so many other good papers. If you want to stay late, I'll do them for you. I can't find "The Sun-Times." What's the weather tomorrow?

I'll tell you when we get back after the break. What happened?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: OK, before we go, if you promise -- I probably should wear my glasses to do this. It's a little late. If you promise to watch "AMERICAN MORNING" at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time, I can get one more paper in, "The Chicago Sun-Times," because you can't really go to bed unless you know the weather in Chicago, right? And so, the weather tomorrow in Chicago is "idyllic." It's been idyllic here, actually, all week long.

Join us tomorrow, good stuff tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time, glasses and all.

Until then, good night for all of us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired September 22, 2004 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
We've been asked more than once of late why we spend so much of our hour on Iraq and it's a fair question. The simple answer is the country is at war. One hundred thirty thousand of our young men and women are there in danger every day.

The fact is they will likely face more danger, not less, in the months ahead. We're spending billions of dollars, $200 billion or so, so far and counting, but it isn't just that.

Iraq, I think, is the defining issue of the presidential campaign and ought to be. Iraq, more than anything else, turned an era of shared national purpose and good feeling after 9/11 to an era of especially nasty politics today.

Iraq has changed the view of the United States around the world, some places for the better many places for worse. Whatever your feelings about the war in Iraq, it will be with us for years and years to come.

Iraq and the demands it places, both on the military and the treasury, will impact how we deal with all sort of other problems, domestic and foreign, Iraq, North Korea, to name two. We spend time on Iraq because nothing else out there in our view matters more and we'll spend most of the program on Iraq tonight.

The whip begins in Baghdad, where CNN's Walter Rodgers starts us off with a headline and sets the scene for the hour ahead -- Walt.

WALTER RODGERS, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Aaron. As the insurgency grows in Iraq it's bringing into sharper focus the fissures and fault lines in Iraqi society raising the questions can you put Humpty together again -- Aaron?

BROWN: Walter, thank you.

On to the Pentagon and a question of strategy, lots of questions and lots of strategy, we'll be talking a lot about strategy tonight, Jamie McIntyre from the Pentagon with a headline -- Jamie.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Aaron these days you don't get much argument from the Pentagon that things have taken a turn for the worse in Iraq but they say they have a clear strategy to deal with it. What's not so clear is whether that strategy will work.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you.

Iraq is shaping up in campaign strategies as well, the issue now dominating the race, our Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield turns his eye to that corner of the story, so Jeff a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Aaron, it's clear this week that the war in Iraq is not simply a campaign issue but more likely the dominant campaign issue. But the argument is about more than the war. It's about which candidate has the character and the leadership credentials to guide this country in a post-9/11 world -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest later in the program.

Also coming up on NEWSNIGHT tonight, the man formerly known as Cat Stevens, does he have ties to terrorist groups? The U.S. government says he does and he is barred from coming into the United States.

And we go back to Iraq and the story of a child named Americas, the name given to her on the day the United States invaded.

And, on special programs and just the regular ones too, we end it all with morning papers, all that and more in the hour ahead.

Much of what we report on tonight will deal with strategies, strategies for military planners, strategies for political candidates, strategies for young soldiers just trying to stay alive.

That is the theme of tonight's reporting, strategies. But to understand the strategies you need to understand first the lay of the land and the lay of the land is shifting like desert sands.

So, we begin with CNN's Walter Rodgers.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS (voice-over): Iraq's Shiite Muslims long an oppressed majority are reasserting themselves, awakening politically. Shiites are part of the kaleidoscope of political forces falling into play in the post-Saddam Iraq.

This great awakening could become a democratic tapestry but it has darker threads. Here they warn there will be rivers of blood if the Americans again attack Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

But in another Shiite demonstration, shouts of "Muqtada is a thief" a reminder Iraqi tribal and religious groupings are ridden with factions. Some here believe the Bush administration's Iraqi experiment in democracy uncorked a dangerous genie.

SAAD NAJI JAWAD, IRAQI ANALYST: This is the chaotic situation the American occupation created in Iraq and this is the thing which is dividing and splitting Iraq into small (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

RODGERS: Each of these Iraqi cities has at one time slipped into or out of coalition control leaving much of the country in the hands of militias. Among the Sunni Muslims, similar tribal fragmenting, warring militias united only in the fight to kill Americans.

The general dislike of the American-installed Iraqi government is a unifying force. This man said, "They're all traitors and spies brought here by the Americans and Jews on their tanks."

Each Iraqi ethnic militia is armed. The Kurdish Peshmerga is 50,000 strong.

ROSEMARY HOLLIS, ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTL. AFFAIRS: Because we'll not go backwards from the autonomous status they've achieved so far, if Iraq begins to fragment into civil strife, the Kurds will simply make a bid for a form of independence.

RODGERS: Iraq has ten main tribes and thousands of clans that might make a three-way Sunni/Shiite/Kurdish split look tidy compared to total social fragmentation.

(on camera): Imagine trying to draw a map of Iraq delineating which tribes and which militias control this country and you come up with a patchwork quilt which may be why some critics suggest Washington should have left well enough alone here.

HOLLIS: It would be a brave person who talked about democracy, free market system and peace, calm and security in Iraq just around the corner now. I think expectations have been much lowered.

RODGERS (voice-over): Now, the American experiment in Iraq seems to hinge on upcoming national elections as the only alternative to a slide into civil war.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RODGERS: The genie is certainly out of the bottle here in Iraq now and, if truth be told, no one knows how this experiment is going to end -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walter, the Iraqi government has made a judgment not to even -- not to try to even disband all of these militias, all the varied militias with the exception I guess of the Sadr militia.

RODGERS: That's true at this point but, remember, that the new Iraqi interim government is still an appendage of the Bush administration in Washington and more specifically of Donald Rumsfeld's Department of Defense.

You could not possibly, with the amount of troops here, which is a few number of troops in Iraq, disband all those militias. There are 50,000 Peshmergas. That is the Kurdish militia in the north and those people are not going to be disbanded by anybody. There will be a full shooting war up there if what the Americans try here run afoul of Kurdish national aspirations.

You have essentially a civil war raging right now in the Sunni Triangle. You have cities there in which the Americans can't go. Witness the terrible fighting overnight or yesterday in Sadr City with the Shiites.

There earlier this week you had an assassination of two Sunni Muslim sheiks, religious leaders. They were killed in a Shiite neighborhood. It smells like civil war. We aren't there yet but it is not a good picture -- Aaron.

BROWN: Walter, thank you as always.

And we will return to our reporting on Iraq as we go along in the program and stay there for most of the way but, as always is the case around here, there are a number of other stories that we need to try and get in, even on nights like this for us.

And we begin with CBS News. Today the network named two prominent people to investigate its "60 Minutes" report on President Bush's National Guard service during Vietnam, specifically the documents, the memos.

Dick Thornburgh, the former governor of Pennsylvania and a former U.S. Attorney General under both Presidents Reagan and the first George Bush will work along with Louis Boccardi, a retired president and chief executive officer of the Associated Press, AP. Their job is to determine what errors occurred in the preparation of the report and what action should follow.

On balance it's been a pretty awful day and an awful week for CBS, so add this to it. The brief flash of singer Janet Jackson's breast during last year's Super Bowl halftime show back in February today begat one of the largest fines ever imposed by the FCC.

Viacom, which owns CBS, will have to pay $550,000 for the lapse which aired on 20 CBS-owned stations. CBS stations who are affiliated with the network but have separate owners were not fined.

Some day we may know exactly why the man who used to be known as Cat Stevens, the singer and songwriter, was pulled off an airplane last night heading for Washington and sent back to London today. The government says it was a perfect, well near perfect example of the way the no-fly list should work.

Here's CNN's Kelli Arena.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KELLI ARENA, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): His supporters say he's known for advocating peace but U.S. officials say recent information suggests Yusef Islam has knowingly financed terrorists through Muslim charities and is knowingly associated with potential terrorists but officials would provide no specifics.

TOM RIDGE, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: Celebrity or an unknown, our job within Homeland Security is to act on information that others have given us. In this instance, there was some relationship between the name and terrorist activity that led to this individual's name being on that no-fly list and the appropriate action was taken. ARENA: Islam, who is a British citizen, was not stopped before boarding the London to Washington flight. Instead, the plane was forced to land in Maine. The reason, sources say his name, which was recently added to the watch list, was misspelled.

ARSALAN IFTKHAR, COUNCIL ON AMERICAN-ISLAMIC RELATIONS: Mr. Islam has always categorically denied the fact that he has ever knowingly given any money or support to any terrorist group and we are here today to say that if, in fact, these allegations were true by the government, why wasn't Mr. Islam arrested?

ARENA: Formerly known as Cat Stevens, Islam became Muslim in 1977 and founded a Muslim school in London. But this is not the first time he's been accused of financing terrorists. He was denied entry into Israel at least twice for allegedly supporting Hamas.

Still, his supporters describe him as a moderate and point to his official Web site on which he has consistently opposed terrorist acts. He even donated some music royalties to September 11th families.

(on camera): But good deeds do not get you off watch lists and U.S. officials say they're confident the information that put Islam on one is credible.

Kelli Arena, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: A couple of other things that made news around the country today, Yasser Hamdi (ph), the first person designated as an enemy combatant in the war on terror has been cleared to go home after three years in custody. He was never charged with a crime.

Under an agreement reached with the Justice Department, Mr. Hamdi, a Saudi national born in the United States, will return to Saudi Arabia by the end of the month.

He'll have to renounce any claim to U.S. citizenship and abide by tight travel restrictions. In a milestone ruling earlier this year, the Supreme Court said Mr. Hamdi had the right to challenge his ongoing detention.

Also today a military judge dropped an espionage charge against a Muslim interpreter accused of spying at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay. In return, Senior Airmen Ahmed al-Hallabi pleaded guilty to four minor charges. It's the third Guantanamo spy case to fall apart this year. The fourth case is pending in Boston.

And, in a 77-17 vote, the Senate today confirmed Porter Goss to be the new director of the CIA. Democrats who fought to block the nomination said the eight-term Republican from Florida is too partisan for the job, a job that all agree requires independence. Representative Goss formerly served in Army intelligence and as a CIA officer.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, a special look at the situation in Iraq. Can an American-style democracy ever flourish in a country fragmented by civil war?

And, the politics of Iraq, how the war is defining the race for the White House.

From New York this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We're still dealing with the first week in September.

Back now, as promised, to Iraq. We start this stretch of the program with a measure of one day, 24 hours in Iraq, 16 months and 21 days after major combat was declared over.

In U.S. military deaths, 1,040 lives ago, the number of Iraqi civilians while impossible to calculate is clearly many times that, so, first the measure of a day, September 22, 2004.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): It is terrible to put it this way but today was just another day in Iraq. Insurgents and Americans fought a day long battle in Sadr City, the sprawling slum controlled by those loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, the battles fought with tanks and F-16s against rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47s.

One American soldier died in Baghdad, victim of a suicide car bomb. Two more died in other cities in the country. Another car bomb devastated a commercial neighborhood apparently targeted at a police recruiting station and a shop where recruits gathered. At least a dozen died there, more than 50 wounded.

That is the big picture today and then there was the intimate agony of those held hostage.

KENNETH BIGLEY, HOSTAGE IN IRAQ: I need you to help me, Mr. Blair, because you are the only person now on God's earth that I can speak to.

BROWN: Kenneth Bigley appeared to the British prime minister in a video posted on an Islamic Web site. The same Web site later showed a video that has become all too horribly familiar, the beheading of his housemate, American contractor Jack Hensley. Hensley's body abandoned in a Baghdad street was formally identified today dashing the last hopes of his family in Georgia.

TY HENSLEY, SLAIN HOSTAGE'S BROTHER: His story will be out for a day or two but the pain is going to be suffered for generations in my family. Jack Hensley was an extraordinarily innocent man. He went over there to provide the money or income for his family as a last resort.

BROWN: Hensley is the second American killed this week by a group led by the Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Eugene Armstrong's headless body was identified a day earlier when their demand to release all Iraqi women held in jail went unmet. According to the coalition, only two women are currently being detained, both of them accused of involvement in Saddam's biological weapons program. There was a period of confusion today as Iraqi authorities appeared to announce that one of the women, the woman known as Dr. Germ, might be released soon. American officials later said that this was only one step in a long legal process of dealing with high value detainees and no release would happen soon.

And, at the U.N., the secretary of state reiterated the position of the American, the British and the Iraqi governments.

COLIN POWELL, SECRETARY OF STATE: My heart goes out to their families when I consider the manner of their death and I extend deepest condolences to the families. But if there's one thing we've learned over time, it's that you can't negotiate with these kinds of terrorists. You can't give in to them because all it does is incentivize them to do it again.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: One day in Iraq, a fairly typical day these days.

As we said earlier, much of what we report tonight deals with strategies. There's no single strategy for Iraq. There can't be. One part is political, one part military, one part hope that Iraqis themselves will decide to fight for their country.

But the enemy gets a vote in this too and the enemy decided long ago it couldn't win a conventional war against a great super power but an insurgency, now that is another matter or so they think. So, how do you deal with that?

From the Pentagon tonight CNN's Jamie McIntyre.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE (voice-over): The U.S. strategy is to wait several months for more Iraqi forces to finish training so they can lead the way in retaking insurgent strongholds like Fallujah. The approach is rooted in the belief that only an Iraqi solution can produce a lasting peace.

But the practical effect is to allow anti-U.S. militants, including followers of terrorist leader Abu Musab Zarqawi, to use Fallujah as a base of operations for kidnappings, beheadings and car bombings.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: These people cannot beat us militarily and so they use the only tool at their disposal, which is beheadings and death to try to shake our will.

MCINTYRE: But waiting for Iraq's military to mature has also forced the U.S. to resort to not always precise air strikes to target insurgent safe houses. The U.S. claims hundreds of insurgents have been killed but so have innocent civilians, which only fuels support for the terrorists. It's a problem military thinkers argue that simply cannot be solved militarily.

COL. THOMAS HAMMES, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY: You cannot win an insurgency by simply killing more insurgents. I think the Soviets pretty much proved that in Chechnya and Afghanistan.

MCINTYRE: Marine Colonel Thomas Hammes is a senior military fellow at the National Defense University. He's written a book on dealing with insurgencies.

HAMMES: Insurgencies are long wars. A short insurgency lasts ten to 12 years. A long insurgency is 30 to 35 years. The Vietnamese fought for 30 years. The Palestinians have been at it since 1968.

So, if you keep those two points in mind that it's essentially a political struggle and it's a very long term struggle, then it changes your strategy. You don't worry so much about what happens this week. You're looking long term.

MCINTYRE: But the U.S. and Iraq's interim government are looking short term, pinning hopes for nationwide elections in January on Iraq's ability, with U.S. help, to launch a series of offensives before the end of the year to regain control of a number of enemy enclaves in the so-called Sunni Triangle, including Fallujah, Samarra and provincial capitals Baquba and Ramadi.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld scoffs at predictions, insisting how long the insurgency will last is unknowable.

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: I think anyone who pulls a number out of midair and says it will take one year or five years or ten years must have mystical powers that most people don't have.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCINTYRE: The lynchpin of the U.S. strategy is getting enough motivated and well-trained Iraqi troops so that the average Iraqi doesn't believe that the U.S. is running the show. But given the uneven performance of troops in the recent past, the idea that they could route the insurgents in just four months strikes many experts as wishful thinking -- Aaron.

BROWN: Is the thinking there, the thinking -- let me try this differently. The thinking there is not that they have to wipe out the insurgency in four months, correct?

MCINTYRE: Well, that they need to establish enough local control in these areas that they can have legitimate elections.

BROWN: And so, I mean no one believes, I've yet to run into anyone who believes that in February, for example, Iraq is going to be some grand, peaceful, wonderful, heavenly place. With luck there will be elections at the end of January that people will find credible.

MCINTYRE: Yes, well they're also hoping that in places like Fallujah, for instance, that when you walk out the door you won't see bands of insurgents roaming that you'll see Iraqi police, that there will be an Iraqi governor who has some reporting to the central government.

BROWN: Yes.

MCINTYRE: That there will be some control. The insurgency will still be going on. Nobody believes that's going to be defeated in four months.

BROWN: Jamie, thanks, good to see you again, Jamie McIntyre from the Pentagon tonight.

For soldiers on the ground the strategy is a whole lot more simple. Find a way to do the job and stay alive. Depending where in the country you are, the challenge is different. Some places you can help rebuild Iraqi society. Some places the best way to stay alive is to blow something or someone up.

Jane Arraf tonight on soldiers, strategy in the field.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): It's a different view at ground level. American soldiers actually fighting the war in Iraq aren't paying much attention to the debate raging over it.

SGT. DAVID PARKER, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: Personally, we came here to do a job and, like I said, the job we're doing is pretty much good.

ARRAF: Sergeant Parker's job is a lot more than getting shot at or shooting people (UNINTELLIGIBLE) start paying much attention to politics either.

Specialist Jeremy Rice from Ohio is turning 21 this week. It's the first time he'll be able to vote but he doesn't plan to.

SPC. JEREMY RICE, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: That's a tough choice right there on who. I haven't really been able to follow the news at all, so I don't know which way to go.

ARRAF: As for the news from Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, on most days there's either none filtering to the outside world or, like today, bad news that a U.S. soldier has been killed near Tikrit.

But just a few miles away it's as if it never happened. Soldiers say the streets they're patrolling are safer and more prosperous than they'd been. Here in Saddam Hussein's hometown, the 1st Infantry Division spends a lot of time getting to know the people whose city they're living in.

First Battalion 18th Infantry Company Commander Aaron Coombs stops to talk to a carpet dealer to get his view on life here. He tells the captain that what they need are jobs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have money, people can work and get money life can be better.

ARRAF: It's still dangerous.

CPT. AARON COOMBS, U.S. 1ST INFANTRY: It's not a daily gunfight here in Tikrit anyway but it does happen. It's still a very lethal place.

ARRAF: Two weeks ago the company medic was killed near here but with so much else going on the steady drip of deaths doesn't seem to overshadow the progress they believe they've helped make.

COOMBS: I think if you talk to a lot of people, even here in Tikrit, somebody who is honest with himself will tell you that things are better now, although there are problems than there were a year ago.

ARRAF: Most of these soldiers say that makes it worth it.

Jane Arraf, CNN, Tikrit.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jon Powers spent 14 months in Iraq, U.S. Army captain. He went to war and, as all who go to war, came back a changed man. We met his unit a month or so ago in a documentary called "Gunner's Palace." Today, we met him.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: You signed up for the ROTC when you were a high school kid.

JON POWERS, SPENT 14 MONTHS IN IRAQ: Yes.

BROWN: Knowing what you know now, having experienced what you experienced, having changed in the way you changed, would you do it again?

POWERS: I would do it again only because I wouldn't want my brother to have to do it or I wouldn't want those terrorists to come here and fight the way they were fighting. But if I went back to see myself when I was 17 years old, I might wave myself off and sign the contract and think about it. But it's been quite an experience, quite an experience, something that's changed me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jon and I talked for a good while this afternoon and we talked about how things seem to have changed in Iraq from welcoming to hostility. We talked of his fallen comrades. We talked of his idealism. He was terrific and we'll air the complete interview on the program tomorrow, "A Soldier's Story" on NEWSNIGHT.

Coming up tonight still, the story of Americas, a young girl named after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAT BUCHANAN, AUTHOR, "WHERE THE RIGHT WENT WRONG": It appears to me that the insurgency is growing in numbers and strength and incidents of attacks. And the reason for the insurgency is the vast presence of American troops in Iraq. What I would do if I were president is call all the commanders together in the White House situation room right after this election, ask them what is the cost in blood and treasure of continuing this? What are the chances of success? Because, in my judgment this is not a doable proposition for 10 years. I would be looking for an exit strategy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Mr. Buchanan is the first of a number of people you'll hear from in the days ahead on what they would do in Iraq.

John Burns joins us tonight. We won't ask him about exit strategy precisely. Before, during and after the war, he has manned the "New York Times" bureau in Baghdad. He's a welcome guest always and is so tonight.

Good to see you, sir.

We've talked in the program tonight a lot about various strategies. Do you see any evidence that the Iraqis are better- prepared to wage their own fight against the insurgency?

JOHN BURNS, BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": As of right now, I wouldn't say we do.

I think that the -- the fair answer, and certainly the answer that you would get from American commanders is that the answer to that lies probably about two to three months down the road, as the training up of the Iraqi National Guard, the police and the new army battalions reaches a kind of critical mass.

If we look back at what happened in the spring, when the training was knock like as rigorous as it is now, when nothing like as much money had been devoted to it, of course, many of those units disintegrated or simply sat down, at best, when the challenge came from Muqtada al-Sadr's insurgency then. If we had to guess how it's going to go, I think most of us would say that even regarded only as the point of the spear in attacks on cities like Fallujah and Samarra, it's doubtful, as it seems to us, that they will be as successful as is presently hoped.

But let's wait and see. The training is certainly very rigorous. America sent the general who, up until now, will probably be regarded as the most successful general it's had here, General David Petraeus, formerly here as commander of the 101st Airborne Division. He's confident. But, as they say, the proof remains in the eating of the pudding.

BROWN: Yes. And I guess, at some point, the question will be, regardless of how well-trained they are and regardless of how terrific the officers are and their weapons are and all the rest, will they stand and fight other Iraqis?

BURNS: It's an extremely hard proposition.

And like so many other things that have occurred here in the past 17 months since the U.S.-led invasion, I think that we have to look beyond the number of weapons and beyond some of the more objective factors on the ground at very complicated questions of history, culture and, perhaps, above all, a traumatized psychology.

You have to remember what happened to these people under Saddam Hussein, the brutality that was visited on them. The very thing that we, most of us who were here at that time, feel should motivate Iraqis to stand up has proven, in effect, to be the one thing that makes many of them very passive in the face of the sorts of challenges that we've seen in Baghdad this week.

BROWN: Have you figured out why that is?

BURNS: Well, you and I haven't been bludgeoned in the way that Iraqis were, stripped, disempowered completely, held in a terrible -- I actually talked on your program about this before -- held in a degree of fear that we in the West find unimaginable, that I, personally, after 30 years of traveling in some of the nastiest places in the world, found quite unique here.

And I think we have to weigh that. And I think, in the end, the course of this war is going to lie in the power of American forces here, as it has from the beginning.

BROWN: Just quickly, you think elections can happen at the end of January?

BURNS: As matters stand right now, I think it's highly unlikely. There are many bridges to be crossed between now and then.

But I would say that, if an election were held right in January under the conditions we now see or conditions that may yet be worse, you'd have a very low turnout. And you only have to ask yourself one question. If you have voters lined up outside a polling station, what reason would these insurgents not have to drive decide bombers right into the midst of them, as they do now, into crowds elsewhere?

BROWN: John, it's good to see you. Stay safe there -- John Burns.

BURNS: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: Thank you, the bureau chief of "The New York Times" in Baghdad.

And I must say, John has filed some extraordinary pieces out of there in the last 17 months and even before the invasion, long before the invasion.

Still to come on NEWSNIGHT, the politics of Iraq, how it is shaping the presidential race here. And from the race to the White House to the politics in your region, they sometimes crop up in morning papers, don't they? We'll take a look at those as well.

Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We over- Americanized the conflict. We were too visible. We became part of the problem itself. The only way we're going to get this under control is to recognize that a policy of indirection, of being less visible, less engaged, perhaps redeploy our troops just in a few bases, and before too long, begin to get out.

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BROWN: Just going to throw a lot of different ideas out there in the weeks ahead, give you some things to think about.

Even as the candidates sometimes try to be heard on issues other than Iraq, Iraq is what is getting press. It certainly is from us. President Bush was in Pennsylvania today, said the best way to bring troops home is not to wilt or waver. In Florida, Senator Kerry once again accused the president of being out of touch with the realities of the war in Iraq. And he also insinuated, if Mr. Bush was reelected, he would bring back the draft.

CNN's Jeff Greenfield tonight, more on the politics of the presidency and Iraq.

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JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST (voice-over): If there were any doubt, there is none now. The war in Iraq is not just one issue in this campaign. It is the issue. And the differences could not be more clear. For Senator Kerry, the focus is on the conduct of the war and its consequences.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The president claims it is the centerpiece of his war on terror. In fact, Iraq was a profound diversion from that war.

GREENFIELD: The issue, Kerry says, basic competence.

KERRY: His miscalculations were not the equivalent of accounting errors. They were colossal failures of judgment. And judgment is what we look for in a president.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: For President Bush, the Iraq war removed a grave and gathers risk to the United States, a risk he could not ignore.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Do I forget the lessons of September the 11th and take the word of a madman or do I take action and defend our country? Faced with that choice, I will defend our America every time.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

GREENFIELD: And it is a war where current dilemmas are dwarfed by the prospects for long-term gains.

BUSH: Instead of harboring terrorists, they're fighting terrorist groups.

GREENFIELD (on camera): But this is not just a debate about the conduct of the war. For the candidates, Iraq is a prism through which they ask voters to judge their opponents, to question whether they really understand how to protect this country and its citizens in a post-9/11 world.

(voice-over): The whole message of the Republican Convention and the Bush campaign is that this president is a leader of clear vision, willing to make the tough decisions, even in the face of political costs.

GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: The president did not go into Iraq because the polls told him it was popular. As a matter of fact, the polls said just the opposite.

GREENFIELD: In contrast, says Bush, Kerry has repeatedly changed his mind on Iraq. That's a constant refrain of his on the campaign trail.

BUSH: He is saying he prefers the stability of a dictatorship to the hope and security of democracy. I couldn't disagree more. And not so long ago, so did my opponent.

GREENFIELD: For Kerry, the Bush character flaw is arrogance, a stubborn refusal to listen or to face reality.

KERRY: And this is all the more stunning, because we're not talking about 20/20 hindsight. We're not talking about Monday-morning quarterbacking. Before the war, before he chose to go to war, bipartisan congressional hearings, major outside studies and even some in his own administration predicted virtually every problem that we face in Iraq today.

GREENFIELD: In his indictment, Kerry draws on the increasingly sharp words of Republican senators like Hagel, McCain, Lugar and a recent national intelligence estimate to make his case that things are going badly.

Bush notes that all three of those senators support him and that the CIA estimates are only guesses.

(on camera): But the fundamental split goes to the clearly dominant factor in this campaign, the battle against terror that, ever since September 11, has made the citizens of this superpower feel personally vulnerable. If voters see the Iraq war as part of the greater battle on terror that has made us safer, Bush wins. If they see it as a costly diversion that has made us less safe, Kerry wins. Campaign issues don't get much clearer than that.

Jeff Greenfield, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead on the program, still another piece of the Iraqi stories. Goodness, there are many. Ten Iraqi civilians share the details of their lives in still photos.

A break first.

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BROWN: We've often said the war in Iraq is many stories. And it is. Our job is to try and give voice to all of them over time. It's easy to forget that along with the bombing and the bloodshed, life in Iraq is also filled with the ordinary and struggle to preserve it.

That story is the focus of an exhibit at New York University's Tisch School of the Arts. It is a story we tell in pictures tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRED RITCHIN, DIRECTOR, PIXELPRESS: The Daylights Community Arts Foundation is a small group that believes in doing documentary differently. So they had the idea of giving 10 disposable cameras to civilians in Iraq. And out of that, we found 30 very, very strong images that could be used for this exhibition.

The people given cameras in Iraq were people known to several foreign journalists who were coming in and to the people they already knew in Iraq. And they were selected to get a cross-section of some extent of the Iraqi people. So you get a third-year English student from the University of Baghdad, a guy who lives in a garbage dump. You get somebody who's a dentist. They were told that explicitly that this is an opportunity to send a message to the American people, to tell them what is going on in Iraq, what is Iraq like, what are some of the hopes and wishes and desires of the people in Iraq?

By giving the disposable cameras to the civilians, they themselves were able to photograph their friends, their neighbors, their own family and their own point of view. Just these little 10 disposable cameras are enough for me to understand that there's a huge slice of the society that I know very, very little about, with all the coverage that I've seen.

So, this documentary exploration becomes one of saying, this is what our society is to us. Do not define us by explosions, by pictures of military, by pictures of insurgents. But define us by our daily lives.

There's a photograph of people living in a very poor neighborhood who named their child Americas on the day of the U.S. invasion. There's a child who has a very serious medical deformity. There's a young woman who is flirtatious. There's kids going to school. There's a guy working in the street. There's people in Fallujah burying their own dead. There's a combination of the very daily kinds of things and some of the more extraordinary things that happen in Iraq.

When you see the guy building or carrying bricks or the boy in a schoolyard or the young woman sort of smiling, then you realize it's another society that's human and noble and wonderful. It's wonderful to have snapshots that say, forget the spectacular. Forget the shocking. Look at the everyday. And maybe that way, in fact, we'll learn more about what's going on in Iraq.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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BROWN: All right, time to check the morning papers from around the country, around the world.

"Christian Science Monitor" leads politics. "Why Women Are Edging Toward Bush." This is the so-called security mom story that everybody seems to be writing about. And also down at the bottom, "In Shark Tank, a Great White Survives. A Great White in Captivity Could Offer New Insights" -- I don't like that word -- "New Insights on the Mysterious and Feared Creature." I don't know. It amused me.

Nothing amusing about any of the British papers. The headlines are horrible. They're terrific and horrible, if you know what I mean. "Mr. Blair, I Don't Want to Die. Help Me See My Wife and Son Again." This is the British hostage, Ken Bigley in "The Guardian."

"The Times" leads likewise, "The British Times." "I Need You to Help Me Now, Mr. Blair, Because You're the Only Person on God's Earth Who Can." It's nuts over there.

"The Dayton Daily News," I like this paper a lot. "FCC Slaps Cbs With $550,000 Super Fine." This strikes me as over the top, but it's just my opinion, OK? And down at the bottom, the story we all care most about in our heart of hearts: "Twinkie Maker Seeks Chapter 11." Is that Intercontinental? Interstate Bakeries. Anyway, the people who invented the Twinkie going under. Atkins gets them all.

How much time? Fifteen? Oh, my goodness.

"Philadelphia Inquirer." "In Haiti, a Rush For Food. Death Toll in Haiti From the Flooding Tops 1,000," I do believe. That's a horrible story.

And let's just go to "The Chicago Sun-Times." I have so many other good papers. If you want to stay late, I'll do them for you. I can't find "The Sun-Times." What's the weather tomorrow?

I'll tell you when we get back after the break. What happened?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: OK, before we go, if you promise -- I probably should wear my glasses to do this. It's a little late. If you promise to watch "AMERICAN MORNING" at 7:00 a.m. Eastern time, I can get one more paper in, "The Chicago Sun-Times," because you can't really go to bed unless you know the weather in Chicago, right? And so, the weather tomorrow in Chicago is "idyllic." It's been idyllic here, actually, all week long.

Join us tomorrow, good stuff tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time, glasses and all.

Until then, good night for all of us.

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