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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Iraqi Government: We're Controlling Samarra; Post-Debate Analysis; Mt. St. Helens Erupts

Aired October 01, 2004 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening again, everyone. We're at the House of Blues Foundation Room at the Mandalay Bay Hotel, which looks out over the Las Vegas strip. Las Vegas it seemed to me today seemed like an odd place to do a news program, being mostly a place about fantasy. Reality, after all, is not the Eiffel tower next to the Empire State building right down the road from Camelot. Reality comes a desert away in olive drab, not gaudy neon or a world away in places where the wild car is a nuclear program, not a chance to double down.
Then again, if our travels this week have shown us anything at all, it is this -- nothing is as simple at that. Las Vegas is only mostly about fantasy. The rest, and it's a lot, has to do with growth and progress and conflict and change, which come to think of it, looking out at the great pyramid sounds real enough for now.

"The Whip" begins at the Pentagon with the details of an offensive under way in the Iraqi city of Samarra and elsewhere. Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre with the watch. So Jamie, start us with a headline.

JAMIE McINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, after more than a day of fierce fighting, the Iraqi government says it's back in control of Samarra. It's the first test of a new strategy designed to retake insurgent strongholds across Iraq.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you. We'll get back to you quickly tonight. Next to the campaign, the debate and the bounce -- or not -- our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield following that. Jeff, a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, by common consent, one question has been answered, who won the debate? John Kerry did. Now for the tougher question -- so what? We'll evade that question as skillfully as I can with you, Aaron in just a few minutes.

BROWN: Jeff thank you and finally a case of nature making good on a promise as nature often does. CNN's Kimberly Osias at the foot of Mount St. Helens where this all began for us this week. Kimberly, the headline from there.

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the show is not over here at Mount St. Helens. We're in a geological interlude of sorts if you will, as scientists watch and wait.

BROWN: Kimberly, thank you, we'll get back to you and Mount St. Helens and the rest in a moment. Also coming up on the program tonight from Las Vegas, political high stakes Las Vegas style, the race for the White House and the odds makers.

Plus nuclear testing, the United States and Nevada's place in the fiery history told as NEWSNIGHT often does, in stills.

And from gangsters and running rebels to the king and old blue eyes, Vegas in morning papers. All that and more in the hour ahead. We begin tonight from this city built on fantasy with the hard realities of Iraq. After months of giving insurgents close to free rein over a number of important Iraqi cities, the battle has been launched to take one of them back, Samarra. What happens next there, especially in the political realm remains, as they say, somewhat fluid. What is happening now as reported by Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon, but first Jane Arraf in Samarra.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Troops from the 1st infantry division rolled through the darkened streets, taking control neighborhood by neighborhood. As dawn broke, hundreds of soldiers on foot moved toward the center of Samarra. The streets are fortunately empty. All these shops are shuttered. This battle has been going on for more than nine hours and the U.S. military says it will continue until they have rooted out the insurgents in the city. The soldiers make slow progress through these winding streets. Tanks and armored vehicles can't easily go here. For hours they take fire from gunmen darting from alleyways and hiding on rooftops.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Engaging small arms fire.

ARRAF: At least one U.S. soldier was killed near the city's sacred shrine. The U.S. military says it killed at least 109 suspected insurgents, including this man. The offensive was the first time the military has allowed journalists into the city with its forces in months. For more than an hour, the U.S. soldiers took fire near the shrine from one of the small hotels normally used by pilgrims but the American forces stopped just short of the mosque where two of the 12 imams are buried and where some Shiias believe the 12th imam will return to ring in judgment day.

(on-camera): It actually looks worse than it is, this fire burning in front of the shrine, the mosque is untouched, but for Iraqis, the presence of U.S. soldiers here will be inflammatory enough.

(voice-over): While U.S. forces blasted the door to pave the way, it was left to the Iraqi troops to enter the mosque. The new Iraqi special forces say they fought with insurgents in the shrine, killing two and detaining dozens. U.S. troops reentered Samarra only in September, after agreeing in July to allow Iraqis to police the city. U.S. forces say this time they won't leave until all the insurgents are gone. Jane Arraf, CNN, Samarra.

(END VIDEOTAPE) (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

McINTYRE: This is Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. The battle for Samarra is the opening salvo in a promised offensive to take back large parts of Iraq before planned January elections. It's the first of what will be a series of operations over the next several months, targeting more than a dozen Iraqi cities where insurgents hold sway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you the only team on that intersection? Over.

McINTYRE: More than 2,000 Iraqi troops took part in the surprise assault, with 3,000 soldiers from the U.S. Army's 1st infantry division providing the firepower and expertise to ensure success. But U.S. commanders believe the victory will only last if it's clear Iraqis are in charge.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's no American inside this (UNINTELLIGIBLE), just Iraqi.

McINTYRE: Samarra is the first test of a new strategy to wait until there are enough trained and equipped Iraqi forces before taking on insurgent strongholds. While military sources have hinted the first offensive was likely a month away, sources say Samarra offered an opportunity for a quick, early success. Pentagon officials believe there is strong local support for kicking out the militants who were seen by many Samarra citizens as holding the city hostage.

The Pentagon hopes success in Samarra will boost the morale of Iraqi forces and build confidence in the overall strategy and would take other strongholds by the end of the year.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

McINTYRE: But the biggest problem remains Fallujah, where for now the U.S. strategy is to rely on precision air strikes but they're sometimes less than precise results. Today a Reuters camera crew filmed the aftermath of a strike in which the bodies of two children were pulled out of the site, that despite an announcement from the multinational forces that the strike was based on precise intelligence that showed only 10 terrorists were at the site and no innocent civilians. Again, Fallujah, the thorniest problem is going to be tackled last, according to Pentagon sources, because it has to come after the Iraqi military has built up more confidence and experience. Aaron?

BROWN: Two questions -- what does the Pentagon say about the civilian casualties in Fallujah?

McINTYRE: At this point, there's been no statement from the Pentagon on this event. Again, the last statement that the U.S. military and the multinational forces put out insisted that they believed they hadn't hurt any innocent civilians, that they have taken extreme precautions and used very good intelligence, but again the camera crew on the scene had a different story. BROWN: Pictures tell that story. Just compare the size of the problem in the two cities, Samarra compared to Fallujah, how much larger, how many more insurgents, how much more complicated?

McINTYRE: Well, Fallujah is the most complicated problem. The problem there, according to Pentagon officials, is that unlike in Samarra, there isn't a local government that's unhappy with what's going on there. In fact, there's almost no government there. So it's -- they felt that they could go into Samarra, because they felt it would be a welcomed change by most of the people there. So they thought that's a place where they could have a quick victory. Fallujah is going to be a much tougher nut to crack, and that's why they're indicating it's probably going to be some time before they move into Fallujah.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, Jamie McIntyre on a busy day at the Pentagon.

Iraq and what to do about it dominated the first presidential debate last night. An encounter that the pundits and the polls seem to agree on at least at this point, Senator Kerry won. How that translates over the next 32 days until Election Day is something else entirely. For the moment, the president seems newly aggressive, and Mr. Kerry, if not quite gloating, definitely had a certain glow about him as he made the rounds. So tonight, two reports, CNN's Dana Bash, and Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Let's just say he is feeling his oats.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He keeps trying to say, well, you know, we don't want somebody who wants to leave, we don't want somebody, you know -- he says we don't want to wilt or waver. I don't know how many times I heard that.

CROWLEY: Between now and the next debate it's all about drum beat, moving along, getting a sense of momentum, steadily pounding the president.

KERRY: I will never misunderstand that it's al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden that attacked us in New York, and that's the terrorists that we need to kill.

CROWLEY: As the senator mocked the president, the Democratic party followed suit with a Web site ad that it calls "faces of frustration" as Kerry aides allowed as how the thing that really surprised them was that the president did not show he quote, had any sense of what's going on in Iraq. Beyond style, which Kerry pre- debate spin held was not important, there was substance, as Kerry added a P.S. to the president's complaint about Kerry's homeland security ideas.

KERRY: He says well, I don't know how you're going to pay for that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap by providing a tax cut to the wealthiest Americans instead of investing in homeland security in the United States.

CROWLEY: Clearly the Kerry campaign is flying high off the adrenalin of a debate night they say changed the dynamics but they also say will not change the horse race polls, at least not yet.

(on camera): Hoping to avoid the trap of high expectations, Kerry strategists say they believe that during the debate, Kerry opened the conversation. That is, they say, when viewers tuned in, what they saw was a presidential-like figure, someone who was not a flip-flopper. That, they say, may have caused many voters to believe they should take another look.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Kissimmee, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The president immediately set out trying to overcome post debate buzz that his opponent beat him.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Last night, Senator Kerry only continued his pattern of confusing contradictions.

BASH: Instant polls suggest that Kerry may have helped himself by saying he made a mistake in using the wrong words to describe his vote against Iraq funding. The president, with John McCain at his side, spent the day trying to convince Americans, don't buy it.

BUSH: He said he made a mistake in how he talked about that vote but the mistake wasn't what Senator Kerry said. The mistake was what Senator Kerry did.

BASH: Strikingly even, some supporters at Mr. Bush's rallies said he was too repetitive and missed opportunities.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think he had more answers than he gave. I think he waited a little bit too long on his answers sometimes.

BASH: On the road, he seemed to be making up for that. The president zeroed in on Kerry's debate pledge to launch preemptive military strikes as part of a U.S. and global test.

BUSH: I will never dismiss America's national security to an international test.

BASH: TV debate cameras caught the president appearing angry, annoyed, even though a senior adviser told CNN the president, known to bristle when challenged, practiced managing that in mock debates. The Democrats seized on this. Bush advisers called it human.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was probably perplexed when Senator Kerry described that our troops in Iraq don't have enough support. BASH (on camera): The president's advisers take solace in polls, including their own, that shows Senator Kerry did not gain ground in key areas where the president leads, like credibility, trust worthiness and who has the better plan in Iraq.

Dana Bash, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield joins us now to talk about the debate and the day after the debate and the days ahead. I don't believe there's anybody out there right now who believes that Senator Kennedy -- Senator Kerry, rather, did not win the debate last night, but did he gain ground or when will we know whether he gained ground?

GREENFIELD: I don't think you're going to know for a while. One of the problems with instant polls is how instant they are because it's perfectly consistent for somebody to look at that debate and say, if you're asking me who won the debate, John Kerry won it, but I'm voting for the other guy, because I don't vote for candidates based on how well they do in debates. It's whether or not you're going to see movement, whether you're going to see undecided who supposedly really thought Kerry one, begin to drift into his camp, that this will or will not make any difference, because John Kerry, Aaron, still has a real uphill fight. This campaign terrain is right now, I believe, tilted significantly against him and the question is whether that begins to shift.

BROWN: And the problem -- this is a question. It sounds like "Jeopardy" here, but let me put this in the form of a question. The problem is he's having to fight on turf he should already own.

GREENFIELD. What is Maine, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Oregon? I think that's the "Jeopardy" answer or question. The fact that he is in a tight race in New Jersey, a state that Al Gore carried by double digits that was conceded to Kerry when this campaign started is, in my view, the most troublesome statistic at all. The fact that he's barely ahead in Maine, that there are five states that Michael Dukakis won, not the strongest Democratic campaign, where Kerry is embattled, is a problem. And to go back to the question you asked at the beginning, it's if this debate moves people to think this guy actually is a plausible president, maybe as a wavering Democrat I'll go back to my party, that's when you're going to know that this debate had an impact if it has.

BROWN: Actually in a very small sample we'll get to a little later in the program, we did hear some of that and we'll get to that in a few moments. Does this place more -- greater -- I assume this is sort of obvious -- importance on the next two debates? And does the vice presidential debate play into this at all?

GREENFIELD: I think the vice presidential debate is, as we law school-trained people say, let's see if I remember this -- sui generis, cost me thousands for that, a thing unto itself and in usually in something that has very little impact. One of the interesting questions, Joe Klein has raised this question, our colleague is, remember in 2000 when Al Gore seemed too condescending in the first debate, he sedated himself in the second debate. The question tactically is whether President Bush will overcompensate in the second debate by either being more aggressive than he should be or less aggressive than he should be. This is a more disciplined, this is a very disciplined candidate, George W. Bush, and my feeling is they will work very hard on making him seem more affable, and also I believe you can only use that mixed-message phrase, say, 12 times. The 13th time people are going to hear that.

They'll say, we've heard this before. So I think they're going to have to go back and think what happens in the second debate, because a bad performance in the second debate is where I really think you're going to have a potential impact, where people -- that's when doubts really are going to be -- maybe this isn't the steadfast commander in chief we thought he is.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. Looking forward to talking about this more next week as this all plays out. Jeff Greenfield in New York.

When we began our west coast trip in Seattle on Monday, Mount St. Helens was threatening to explode. Son of a gun if it didn't do just that today. The volcanoes biggest eruption in 18 years. In geologic terms, a hiccup, but it was without question, a spectacular hiccup. Here's Kimberly Osias.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): At noon Pacific time, a sudden burst of geological fireworks. Steam shot up thousands of feet into the air for almost half an hour. Ash and smoke moved southwards for several miles.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We certainly have renewed activity, and it's very possible we'll see more of these small steam eruptions that we saw today.

OSIAS: It looks serene, but for the past week there have been rumblings until this majestic facade, a seismically charged witches' brew of debris from earthquakes, landslides and avalanches simmering under her dome. Today rocks the size of cars shot up through a glacier wall behind the dome. The pressure release was so intense, scientists say the force blew the only GPS device clear out of the crater.

TOM PIERSON, GEOLOGIST: It is one small explosion. It could be the first of a string of these explosions. Some could be bigger and once we engage the magma that is deeper down, we could get a little bit bigger ones yet.

OSIAS: A geologist who flew over the scene at the time of their eruption, spoke in awe of nature's power.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When natural events like that take and they take place so rapidly, they're obviously an attraction, something that's just fun to watch.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OSIAS: The alert level remains heightened here as eruptions could happen again at any time. Scientists say today's hiccup is sort of like clearing your throat. It feels good at first, but you may need to do it again. Aaron.

BROWN: Kimberly thank you, something to see though for those of us who were there the first time or the first most recent time, thank you very much Kimberly Osias at Mount St. Helens.

We're in Las Vegas tonight, and when we come back, Las Vegas, a city that is ever-changing, ever reinventing itself. From the hot strip, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Hunter Thomson subtitled his masterpiece "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, A Savage Journey to the Heart of the American Dream." That was in 1971, many iterations of this city ago. Since then, millions have made the trip out here, hundreds of thousands have wound up staying. What they discovered is a place that's still a little savage, especially in the noonday sun, and really late at night, always seductive, and never, ever dull.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HAL ROTHMAN, PROFESSOR, U. OF NEVADA: It's a city of excess. It's a city that says your desires are OK. It's a city that says we're here to fulfill those desires. It's the place where instinct has replaced restraint. Where a leisure society goes to fulfill itself. It's a place that holds a mirror up to you and say what do you want to pay and what do you pay to be in it? You pay enough, we'll make you into that.

BROWN: Fantasy has always been the racing pulse that drives this city.

SHELLEE RENEE, FORMER ENTERTAINER: I would say it's a provocative town and most people are drawn to provocative things.

Shelly Renee understands provocative. That's her third from the left on the back of the cab. For six years she was a featured dancer in a topless revue known as the "crazy girls."

RENEE: In Las Vegas as a female and especially as a female and an entertainer as a 5'9" blond with a D cup, you have to keep a sense of humor about yourself and about everything. Even now that I'm in the advertising industry, someone will come up to me every now and then go, oh, I heard you're one of the girls on the poster, I say, oh, yeah, you have to make a joke about it. I think it's funny. I came here to leave my mark on Vegas. I didn't know that was going to be the mark that I was going to leave.

OSCAR GOODMAN, MAYOR, LAS VEGAS: We're not advertising come to Las Vegas and have sex. We're saying come to Las Vegas and have a sensual experience.

BROWN: Mayor Oscar Goodman says that with a wink and a nod that the city knows so well.

GOODMAN: We're an adult playland, and I don't think we should ever shirk away from that as being our reputation.

BROWN: Goodman is the city's most shameless promoter. Since 48 states have legalized gambling, Las Vegas markets itself as a destination with lavish hotels, big-name entertainment, and, well, that certain sensuality.

GOODMAN: I tell people that the gateway to my city is a billboard that has the picture of a beautiful woman in a state of recline wearing a pink dress, saying that she'll come to your room. I don't know what she does when she gets to the room, but the sign next to it is advertising Viagra. So maybe that says something about Las Vegas.

BROWN: Numbers also tell you something about Vegas. Last year 35 million visitors came, a record number. They helped generate $32 billion in revenue. Las Vegas is now the fastest-growing city in the United States, about 7,000 people move here every month. Since 1980, the population has quadrupled. 2,000 teachers were hired for this year alone. A new school opens every month, which barely keeps up with demand.

ROTHMAN: The signal issue in Las Vegas in the first decade of the 21st century is growth. What has happened here is that we have grown so quickly that we've outstripped our infrastructure. The result is that we have a system here that depends on growth. It is in fact addicted to growth but the growth here doesn't pay for itself. So in a very strange way we have the wolf by the ears. We can't hang on and we can't let go.

BROWN: But Vegas has a genius for reinventing itself. Sooner or later it always finds a way to deal with reality, even though that's never been what this city is all about.

RENEE: Vegas is not about yesterday or today, it's about tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And it is about tonight.

When we come back tonight, the politics in an important time and some things that may surprise you about the politics of Nevada. From Las Vegas, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The major offensive has started yesterday. We're going to see more of those in the weeks ahead.

In the 2000 election, Nevada went to George W. Bush, though just barely, which surprises a lot of people, just a 3.5 percent margin there -- the prize, four electoral votes. This time around, Nevada is worth five electoral votes. It's grown that much.

Demographics shifting as well, putting different issues in play and making the state one of more of a dozen or so that could decide the presidential election.

So we sat down with voters today in, where else, a casino, to decide whether last night's debate made a difference.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): This is a place where the stakes are especially high, just about as good a metaphor as you want, Nevada voters who watched the debate last night, all who thought John Kerry did well, better than expected. The question is, well enough?

Tina Yan is a Republican.

TINA YAN, VOTER: He always usually appears a little smug to me, and not very endearing, and also not to mention the substantive issues of course I wanted to hear. But in favor of Kerry, I think that the debate pretty went well for him. He seemed more presidential, so to speak. I thought he seemed less smug, and I was happy to see that. And it made me listen to him a little easier than I have in the past.

BROWN: John Mehrtens will vote for Senator Kerry. He's a Democrat. He will feel better about the vote because of last night.

JOHN MEHRTENS, VOTER: I was hoping to see something different from Kerry last night, and I was really impressed. He looked sharp. He looked in command. I think, if you didn't know who was president and you watched the debate, he looked more presidential.

(on camera): What happened as you watched it last night?

JOHN OLENICK, VOTER: When I watched it, I thought that President Bush was kind of hesitant at times and almost searching for words, almost thinking about what script he was supposed to be saying to answer certain questions.

BROWN (voice-over): John Olenick, a Las Vegas attorney, is a registered independent, a social liberal, a fiscal conservative.

OLENICK: I thought that John Kerry was a lot more poised and a lot more comfortable.

BROWN (on camera): Were you surprised by either, either man last night?

OLENICK: You know, to me, I think they said the same things that I've been hearing out of them for the past, you know, six months, maybe longer, whatever it's been, a year. I haven't heard anything new from either candidate that makes me want to go out and cast a vote for either one at this time. BROWN (voice-over): For Susie LaFrenz, a secretary at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, the war in Iraq is a huge issue, maybe the issue.

SUSIE LAFRENZ, VOTER: It just aggravates me to think that all these soldiers are over there, and the war is supposed to be over, and we've had more deaths after it's supposedly been over than during -- when it was going on.

OLENICK: I also think that that was one of the biggest mistakes President Bush did was to go out and land on an aircraft carrier and declare that the mission was accomplished. I think, at that point in time, it was clear to me that the mission wasn't accomplished.

BROWN (on camera): You were really a kid. You weren't threatened by Vietnam.

(CROSSTALK)

OLENICK: No.

BROWN: You think Iraq has the potential to become it?

OLENICK: Oh, hands down, yes. Everything is the same. You've got guerrilla warfare basically going on. You've got people who don't want you in their country doing anything they can to get you out of their country. It's all very similar.

BROWN: What do you wish you heard that you didn't hear last night from one or the other?

OLENICK: I wish I would have heard more of a plan from Kerry. You know, he keeps throwing out -- you call them sound bites. And that's pretty much all I heard. And I heard pretty much the same thing from Bush. I didn't hear any meat or anything that really would sway my opinion of either one of the candidates.

BROWN: Did it ever occur to you that maybe they really don't know?

OLENICK: That's why I think that neither of them really know. I don't know if there are simple solutions to any of the problems we're talking about here.

BROWN (voice-over): But the deal is far from closed. With the exception of Mehrtens, the next debates are crucial. Minds are still being made up.

(on camera): You're going to vote for the president, aren't you?

LAFRENZ: No, I don't think I am. Today, I'm not.

BROWN: Today, you're not.

LAFRENZ: After last night, I wouldn't vote for the president.

BROWN: What does he got to do to get you back, then?

LAFRENZ: He's got to be more convincing that this war is going to end.

YAN: The first debate, if anything, brought me closer to Kerry, but I felt I was already leaning toward Bush. So it's going to be very important for me to watch the next two debates. No one has closed the deal for me yet.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Some voters this afternoon.

We're joined by Penn Jillette, who is the louder half of the magic team of Penn & Teller.

It's nice to meet you.

PENN JILLETTE, PENN & TELLER: Nice to meet you.

BROWN: You said to us today the campaign is, in its own way, like a magic trick.

JILLETTE: Well, I said -- it's a magician's choice.

There's this thing you do in magic where you give people a free choice that isn't. And it's the basis of a lot of magic tricks. I put out two cards and I say point to one. And you point to this one, I go, OK, that will be yours. I'll take this one. You point to this one, I say, OK, I'll take this one. That's yours. You have no real choice.

And there's a weird thing here where you can't really find the difference between the two candidates. Everything's going on personality. I mean, 30,000 pages of federal tax code and they disagree on one digit, right? Bush says 35 percent. Kerry says, what, 37 percent?

BROWN: So do you actually believe that, no matter who is elected, or regardless of who is elected, that the country will function essentially the same?

JILLETTE: I really, really think it will. I'm not saying this in a cynical way.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Of course you're not cynical.

JILLETTE: No, I don't think it's cynical. I think it's really idealistic. I think we would really like to see two parties that had a real idealistic base, as opposed to Republicans, who are going for big government, and Democrats that are cutting -- doing the same thing exactly.

BROWN: Why not vote for Ralph Nader, then? (CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: I think -- yes, I think any vote that people would say is wasted I think is a good choice, anything that tells them...

BROWN: But that's not cynical?

JILLETTE: No, I don't think so.

I think it's the Jerome Horowitz theory. You know Jerome Horowitz. He's not as Curly Howard on "The Three Stooges."

BROWN: OK, thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

JILLETTE: You know, Curly -- Moe would say to Curly, pick two, pick two.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: And then Curly would pick two, and then Moe would poke him in the eyes.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: And Curly always knew he was going to get poked in the eyes, but Curly never bothered to say, no, I'm not going to pick two.

And I think that you have got to have a big part of the population saying, we won't vote for nut third-party candidates or we won't vote. You can't keep voting for the lesser of two evils or things just get more evil or skankier.

BROWN: But not enough people will do that to make a difference. I mean, look

(CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: Well, half the people are doing that.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Half the people aren't voting at all.

JILLETTE: Yes. Yes.

BROWN: That's exactly right.

JILLETTE: And if you gave them -- we saw that in Minnesota a bit with Jesse.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: If they do that until there's a good candidate, then that candidate can come up under the radar. I don't know. With the campaign financial reform, it gets much harder, but that you do have all those people that could all of sudden go, no, no, that's a good person.

BROWN: What is it you'd like to hear a candidate say that you are not hearing?

JILLETTE: I would just like to say much more freedom. I'd like to have some candidate just say, you know, we can't trade freedom for safety. We're not going to get that much more safety. Let's just go with freedom, and let's bring everybody back from Iraq and not try to be world policemen.

Let's just try a very, almost isolationist country with just as much freedom as you can possibly do, and let anybody in. If you're having trouble in your country, come on over.

BROWN: But you've got -- not to be a complete downer, but if there were a terrorist incident in this town, one, this town dies.

JILLETTE: I think that you have to...

BROWN: I mean, how can you talk about isolating ourselves in a world that's impossible to isolate?

(CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: I didn't mean isolation in that way. I meant not attacking other countries.

What we're doing is recruiting for al Qaeda. When you're over there with all that stuff, you get people angry. I think if we kept to ourselves a little more, we would be much better off. And, also, if you have freedom, there are dangers with that. It's live free or die. There's dangers to it. I'd like to go with some of that danger.

BROWN: Well, it's the New England in you coming out.

JILLETTE: Yes, it is, Massachusetts.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: You're working tonight. What time is the show?

JILLETTE: I'm going to be on stage playing my bass at 8:00, and then 9:00 start doing the magic.

BROWN: Wonderful coming by.

JILLETTE: Thanks a lot.

BROWN: Thank you very much.

JILLETTE: Thank you.

BROWN: Penn Jillette with us.

We'll take a break and we'll play the odds, sort of, when we come back in Las Vegas. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Sprint time for the candidates, Bush and Kerry. They'll be in overdrive for the next month. Daily polls will tell us who's in the lead. They won't handicap the winner. We'll leave that job to the real professionals.

We're joined by one of top of them, top oddsmaker in Las Vegas, Kenny White.

Nice to see you.

It's in fact not legal to make a bet, make a book, really, on an election, but you all do it for fun, right?

KENNY WHITE, ODDSMAKER: Yes, Aaron, thanks for having me here tonight. Pleasure.

We are prohibited in the state to take wagers on any political office.

BROWN: But you do, do it for fun. And so where are the odds now?

WHITE: Yes, we do. Right now, Bush is the favorite 3-5. That means if you bet $5 on President Bush, you receive $8 back, $3 you win, plus your wager. John Kerry is at right now 9-5. So if you bet $5, you win $9. You will get back $14.

BROWN: Did it change from yesterday to today?

WHITE: Yes, it did. Yes, it did.

BROWN: How much?

WHITE: It changed about 60 cents. It came down from

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Is that a lot or a little?

WHITE: That's a big move, yes. It's a big move.

A 240 favorite is probably around 70 percent winner. And now he's down to about a 65 percent winner.

BROWN: And when you're making book on football, you look at injuries and records, and, horses, you look at mud and all sorts of -- what are you looking at?

WHITE: Right.

Well, when we're looking at odds on the presidential election, many different categories. We're looking at what states that he will hold. And there's different bets on the popular vote, that, right now, the Democratic Party is a 1.1 million-person favorite for the popular vote. And then for the electoral, under and over is 29 1/2 states for President Bush.

BROWN: And what moved it yesterday, just the debate?

WHITE: The debate moved it, yes. Felt that Bush's strong point would be foreign policy. And that's where Kerry has taken over, so he's won one of the categories that you're looking at when you're handicapping a presidential election.

BROWN: But just enough of politics.

In half-a-minute, where does most of the money, the sport book money go, football?

WHITE: Football, yes.

BROWN: Pro football?

WHITE: Yes, pro football is the

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Far and away?

WHITE: That's the king, the king. That's what we live on, our bread and butter.

BROWN: And the rest of the year, what do you do?

(CROSSTALK)

WHITE: We make numbers on basketball and baseball, but we wait for the football season.

BROWN: And so you're in business now?

WHITE: Yes. Yes.

BROWN: Thanks for coming by.

WHITE: Thank you, Aaron. Thanks for having me.

BROWN: I may come visit you. We'll talk about Sunday.

WHITE: Great. Thank you.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Whatever help you can give me.

We'll take a break and we'll be right back from Las Vegas.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: That's the Green Valley in Las Vegas, all the subdivisions, all the building .

On the subject of green, my assistant Meg (ph) has a little extra green in her pocket tonight. She won $3 in the slot machines while we were getting our bags at the airport. I told her, quit while she's ahead.

This, too, is part of the Nevada story; 50 years ago in the desert just north of Las Vegas, the United States government launched a series of nuclear tests that would last for 17 years. Eventually, the testing moved underground, but not before government photographers had documented hundreds of explosions. In his book "100 Suns," the photographer Michael Light has pulled together some of the most dramatic images, the previously classified material now visible in stills to all of us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL LIGHT, AUTHOR, "100 SUNS": ... to realize, but the United States detonated 216 tests atmospherically, and about 106 of those were detonated on the continent of the United States 60 miles north of Las Vegas, which they felt was the emptiest place in the country.

We did 216 tests from '45 to '62 in the air, but we went on to do 800 more underground. And so, effectively, this period from '45 to '62, these atmospheric tests are the only records we have of what the bomb looks like.

A detonation creates a mushroom cloud because of the upward- moving forces. In the desert, they are very, very clean. A lot of the classic sort of dirty mushroom clouds that we see come from desert detonations that were low to the ground, so they suck up a lot of dust. The test in Nevada called "Stokes," it's quite an amazing photograph. It's one of most surreal images in the book.

The Army wanted to find out just what would happen to an airship with the air blast coming out from the nuclear detonation. And there's a remarkable photograph of this blimp face down, kind of crumpled with the tail intact, with the blast of the bomb in the back, the classic mushroom cloud in the back.

"Smoky" is a phenomenal diptych in the book. On the one side, you have soldiers crouching, hiding their heads from as the detonation just as detonation is going, and then as the fireball is rising and glowing and given off ionic radiation, the soldiers have turned around are just gazing at it agog and astounded.

There's an image of soldiers in a trench, very, very close to the point of detonation, which the Army pushed successively over the years its soldiers closer and closer and closer in an attempt to create an atomically capable army. And then the other -- they're both from Turkey. The other image shows the media viewpoint, which is about six, seven miles away, raised up, the benches down below.

And then off in the distance is the detonation. And it's so hot a detonation that it's caused the film to reverse itself, which is a process called solarization.

"Mike" was the first hydrogen bomb. And it was detonated in 1952. It was 10.4 megatons. And that alone is more detonative explosive power than all explosions in both World Wars combined. The cloud rose to a height of about 120,000 feet and at its widest was longer than Long Island. Every reader has to grapple with his or her attraction to these images. One is responding inevitably to this beauty, and, of course, then you're also responding to knowledge of what this is.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Well, a few other items that made news today. We'll take a break. We'll tell you those, as we continue on a Friday night from Las Vegas.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Briefly, a few other stories that made news today before we head off back home.

First, a new message from al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, an audiotape released today. Up first, he calls on young Muslims to keep fighting if he or other al Qaeda leaders are captured or killed. The CIA says it believes the tape from al-Zawahri is legitimate.

In the Middle East, at least 12 Palestinians were killed, dozens injured, as Israeli troops and tanks pounded northern Gaza for the second day in a row. The operation code-named Days of Penitence is in an attempt to stop Palestinian militants from firing rockets into Israel, which they've been able to do.

The House Ethics Committee slapped Majority Leader Tom DeLay yesterday, but did so fairly gently, as these things go. He was admonished, the committee saying Mr. DeLay violated House rules when he tried to swap votes with another congressman. Mr. DeLay said he would never knowingly violate the House rules.

One other note. We began the week in Seattle and we end it up there, more or less, with an extraordinary baseball record, the most hits in a single season. Ichiro Suzuki, Ichiro, the Seattle Mariner's right-fielder, tied tonight an 84-year-old record with his 257th hit. He has two more days to break George Sisler's record. Isn't it? I think so. It's a record that has stood for a long time, since the dead ball era.

Not long ago, we talked about how everyone in this business sooner or later gets a visit from the humility gods. Well, we can report tonight today it was Fox News' turn. First, an item went up on its Web site, a piece with quotations from Senator Kerry about manicures and metrosexuality the sounded more than a little bit iffy, but they were quotations, Fox told us. Next came the retraction and the apology.

The item it read was based on a reporter's partial script that had been written in jest. "We regret the error," it went on to say, "which occurred because of fatigue and bad judgment and not malice." Hmm.

We'll wrap it up when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Our thanks again to all the people at the House of Blues Foundation Room and the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas.

We're back in New York next week. Have a wonderful weekend from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 1, 2004 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening again, everyone. We're at the House of Blues Foundation Room at the Mandalay Bay Hotel, which looks out over the Las Vegas strip. Las Vegas it seemed to me today seemed like an odd place to do a news program, being mostly a place about fantasy. Reality, after all, is not the Eiffel tower next to the Empire State building right down the road from Camelot. Reality comes a desert away in olive drab, not gaudy neon or a world away in places where the wild car is a nuclear program, not a chance to double down.
Then again, if our travels this week have shown us anything at all, it is this -- nothing is as simple at that. Las Vegas is only mostly about fantasy. The rest, and it's a lot, has to do with growth and progress and conflict and change, which come to think of it, looking out at the great pyramid sounds real enough for now.

"The Whip" begins at the Pentagon with the details of an offensive under way in the Iraqi city of Samarra and elsewhere. Our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre with the watch. So Jamie, start us with a headline.

JAMIE McINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, after more than a day of fierce fighting, the Iraqi government says it's back in control of Samarra. It's the first test of a new strategy designed to retake insurgent strongholds across Iraq.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you. We'll get back to you quickly tonight. Next to the campaign, the debate and the bounce -- or not -- our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield following that. Jeff, a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, by common consent, one question has been answered, who won the debate? John Kerry did. Now for the tougher question -- so what? We'll evade that question as skillfully as I can with you, Aaron in just a few minutes.

BROWN: Jeff thank you and finally a case of nature making good on a promise as nature often does. CNN's Kimberly Osias at the foot of Mount St. Helens where this all began for us this week. Kimberly, the headline from there.

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the show is not over here at Mount St. Helens. We're in a geological interlude of sorts if you will, as scientists watch and wait.

BROWN: Kimberly, thank you, we'll get back to you and Mount St. Helens and the rest in a moment. Also coming up on the program tonight from Las Vegas, political high stakes Las Vegas style, the race for the White House and the odds makers.

Plus nuclear testing, the United States and Nevada's place in the fiery history told as NEWSNIGHT often does, in stills.

And from gangsters and running rebels to the king and old blue eyes, Vegas in morning papers. All that and more in the hour ahead. We begin tonight from this city built on fantasy with the hard realities of Iraq. After months of giving insurgents close to free rein over a number of important Iraqi cities, the battle has been launched to take one of them back, Samarra. What happens next there, especially in the political realm remains, as they say, somewhat fluid. What is happening now as reported by Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon, but first Jane Arraf in Samarra.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Troops from the 1st infantry division rolled through the darkened streets, taking control neighborhood by neighborhood. As dawn broke, hundreds of soldiers on foot moved toward the center of Samarra. The streets are fortunately empty. All these shops are shuttered. This battle has been going on for more than nine hours and the U.S. military says it will continue until they have rooted out the insurgents in the city. The soldiers make slow progress through these winding streets. Tanks and armored vehicles can't easily go here. For hours they take fire from gunmen darting from alleyways and hiding on rooftops.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Engaging small arms fire.

ARRAF: At least one U.S. soldier was killed near the city's sacred shrine. The U.S. military says it killed at least 109 suspected insurgents, including this man. The offensive was the first time the military has allowed journalists into the city with its forces in months. For more than an hour, the U.S. soldiers took fire near the shrine from one of the small hotels normally used by pilgrims but the American forces stopped just short of the mosque where two of the 12 imams are buried and where some Shiias believe the 12th imam will return to ring in judgment day.

(on-camera): It actually looks worse than it is, this fire burning in front of the shrine, the mosque is untouched, but for Iraqis, the presence of U.S. soldiers here will be inflammatory enough.

(voice-over): While U.S. forces blasted the door to pave the way, it was left to the Iraqi troops to enter the mosque. The new Iraqi special forces say they fought with insurgents in the shrine, killing two and detaining dozens. U.S. troops reentered Samarra only in September, after agreeing in July to allow Iraqis to police the city. U.S. forces say this time they won't leave until all the insurgents are gone. Jane Arraf, CNN, Samarra.

(END VIDEOTAPE) (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

McINTYRE: This is Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon. The battle for Samarra is the opening salvo in a promised offensive to take back large parts of Iraq before planned January elections. It's the first of what will be a series of operations over the next several months, targeting more than a dozen Iraqi cities where insurgents hold sway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you the only team on that intersection? Over.

McINTYRE: More than 2,000 Iraqi troops took part in the surprise assault, with 3,000 soldiers from the U.S. Army's 1st infantry division providing the firepower and expertise to ensure success. But U.S. commanders believe the victory will only last if it's clear Iraqis are in charge.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's no American inside this (UNINTELLIGIBLE), just Iraqi.

McINTYRE: Samarra is the first test of a new strategy to wait until there are enough trained and equipped Iraqi forces before taking on insurgent strongholds. While military sources have hinted the first offensive was likely a month away, sources say Samarra offered an opportunity for a quick, early success. Pentagon officials believe there is strong local support for kicking out the militants who were seen by many Samarra citizens as holding the city hostage.

The Pentagon hopes success in Samarra will boost the morale of Iraqi forces and build confidence in the overall strategy and would take other strongholds by the end of the year.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

McINTYRE: But the biggest problem remains Fallujah, where for now the U.S. strategy is to rely on precision air strikes but they're sometimes less than precise results. Today a Reuters camera crew filmed the aftermath of a strike in which the bodies of two children were pulled out of the site, that despite an announcement from the multinational forces that the strike was based on precise intelligence that showed only 10 terrorists were at the site and no innocent civilians. Again, Fallujah, the thorniest problem is going to be tackled last, according to Pentagon sources, because it has to come after the Iraqi military has built up more confidence and experience. Aaron?

BROWN: Two questions -- what does the Pentagon say about the civilian casualties in Fallujah?

McINTYRE: At this point, there's been no statement from the Pentagon on this event. Again, the last statement that the U.S. military and the multinational forces put out insisted that they believed they hadn't hurt any innocent civilians, that they have taken extreme precautions and used very good intelligence, but again the camera crew on the scene had a different story. BROWN: Pictures tell that story. Just compare the size of the problem in the two cities, Samarra compared to Fallujah, how much larger, how many more insurgents, how much more complicated?

McINTYRE: Well, Fallujah is the most complicated problem. The problem there, according to Pentagon officials, is that unlike in Samarra, there isn't a local government that's unhappy with what's going on there. In fact, there's almost no government there. So it's -- they felt that they could go into Samarra, because they felt it would be a welcomed change by most of the people there. So they thought that's a place where they could have a quick victory. Fallujah is going to be a much tougher nut to crack, and that's why they're indicating it's probably going to be some time before they move into Fallujah.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, Jamie McIntyre on a busy day at the Pentagon.

Iraq and what to do about it dominated the first presidential debate last night. An encounter that the pundits and the polls seem to agree on at least at this point, Senator Kerry won. How that translates over the next 32 days until Election Day is something else entirely. For the moment, the president seems newly aggressive, and Mr. Kerry, if not quite gloating, definitely had a certain glow about him as he made the rounds. So tonight, two reports, CNN's Dana Bash, and Candy Crowley.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Let's just say he is feeling his oats.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He keeps trying to say, well, you know, we don't want somebody who wants to leave, we don't want somebody, you know -- he says we don't want to wilt or waver. I don't know how many times I heard that.

CROWLEY: Between now and the next debate it's all about drum beat, moving along, getting a sense of momentum, steadily pounding the president.

KERRY: I will never misunderstand that it's al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden that attacked us in New York, and that's the terrorists that we need to kill.

CROWLEY: As the senator mocked the president, the Democratic party followed suit with a Web site ad that it calls "faces of frustration" as Kerry aides allowed as how the thing that really surprised them was that the president did not show he quote, had any sense of what's going on in Iraq. Beyond style, which Kerry pre- debate spin held was not important, there was substance, as Kerry added a P.S. to the president's complaint about Kerry's homeland security ideas.

KERRY: He says well, I don't know how you're going to pay for that. You're going to have a tax gap. My friends, this is the president who created a tax gap by providing a tax cut to the wealthiest Americans instead of investing in homeland security in the United States.

CROWLEY: Clearly the Kerry campaign is flying high off the adrenalin of a debate night they say changed the dynamics but they also say will not change the horse race polls, at least not yet.

(on camera): Hoping to avoid the trap of high expectations, Kerry strategists say they believe that during the debate, Kerry opened the conversation. That is, they say, when viewers tuned in, what they saw was a presidential-like figure, someone who was not a flip-flopper. That, they say, may have caused many voters to believe they should take another look.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Kissimmee, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The president immediately set out trying to overcome post debate buzz that his opponent beat him.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Last night, Senator Kerry only continued his pattern of confusing contradictions.

BASH: Instant polls suggest that Kerry may have helped himself by saying he made a mistake in using the wrong words to describe his vote against Iraq funding. The president, with John McCain at his side, spent the day trying to convince Americans, don't buy it.

BUSH: He said he made a mistake in how he talked about that vote but the mistake wasn't what Senator Kerry said. The mistake was what Senator Kerry did.

BASH: Strikingly even, some supporters at Mr. Bush's rallies said he was too repetitive and missed opportunities.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think he had more answers than he gave. I think he waited a little bit too long on his answers sometimes.

BASH: On the road, he seemed to be making up for that. The president zeroed in on Kerry's debate pledge to launch preemptive military strikes as part of a U.S. and global test.

BUSH: I will never dismiss America's national security to an international test.

BASH: TV debate cameras caught the president appearing angry, annoyed, even though a senior adviser told CNN the president, known to bristle when challenged, practiced managing that in mock debates. The Democrats seized on this. Bush advisers called it human.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was probably perplexed when Senator Kerry described that our troops in Iraq don't have enough support. BASH (on camera): The president's advisers take solace in polls, including their own, that shows Senator Kerry did not gain ground in key areas where the president leads, like credibility, trust worthiness and who has the better plan in Iraq.

Dana Bash, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield joins us now to talk about the debate and the day after the debate and the days ahead. I don't believe there's anybody out there right now who believes that Senator Kennedy -- Senator Kerry, rather, did not win the debate last night, but did he gain ground or when will we know whether he gained ground?

GREENFIELD: I don't think you're going to know for a while. One of the problems with instant polls is how instant they are because it's perfectly consistent for somebody to look at that debate and say, if you're asking me who won the debate, John Kerry won it, but I'm voting for the other guy, because I don't vote for candidates based on how well they do in debates. It's whether or not you're going to see movement, whether you're going to see undecided who supposedly really thought Kerry one, begin to drift into his camp, that this will or will not make any difference, because John Kerry, Aaron, still has a real uphill fight. This campaign terrain is right now, I believe, tilted significantly against him and the question is whether that begins to shift.

BROWN: And the problem -- this is a question. It sounds like "Jeopardy" here, but let me put this in the form of a question. The problem is he's having to fight on turf he should already own.

GREENFIELD. What is Maine, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Oregon? I think that's the "Jeopardy" answer or question. The fact that he is in a tight race in New Jersey, a state that Al Gore carried by double digits that was conceded to Kerry when this campaign started is, in my view, the most troublesome statistic at all. The fact that he's barely ahead in Maine, that there are five states that Michael Dukakis won, not the strongest Democratic campaign, where Kerry is embattled, is a problem. And to go back to the question you asked at the beginning, it's if this debate moves people to think this guy actually is a plausible president, maybe as a wavering Democrat I'll go back to my party, that's when you're going to know that this debate had an impact if it has.

BROWN: Actually in a very small sample we'll get to a little later in the program, we did hear some of that and we'll get to that in a few moments. Does this place more -- greater -- I assume this is sort of obvious -- importance on the next two debates? And does the vice presidential debate play into this at all?

GREENFIELD: I think the vice presidential debate is, as we law school-trained people say, let's see if I remember this -- sui generis, cost me thousands for that, a thing unto itself and in usually in something that has very little impact. One of the interesting questions, Joe Klein has raised this question, our colleague is, remember in 2000 when Al Gore seemed too condescending in the first debate, he sedated himself in the second debate. The question tactically is whether President Bush will overcompensate in the second debate by either being more aggressive than he should be or less aggressive than he should be. This is a more disciplined, this is a very disciplined candidate, George W. Bush, and my feeling is they will work very hard on making him seem more affable, and also I believe you can only use that mixed-message phrase, say, 12 times. The 13th time people are going to hear that.

They'll say, we've heard this before. So I think they're going to have to go back and think what happens in the second debate, because a bad performance in the second debate is where I really think you're going to have a potential impact, where people -- that's when doubts really are going to be -- maybe this isn't the steadfast commander in chief we thought he is.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. Looking forward to talking about this more next week as this all plays out. Jeff Greenfield in New York.

When we began our west coast trip in Seattle on Monday, Mount St. Helens was threatening to explode. Son of a gun if it didn't do just that today. The volcanoes biggest eruption in 18 years. In geologic terms, a hiccup, but it was without question, a spectacular hiccup. Here's Kimberly Osias.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): At noon Pacific time, a sudden burst of geological fireworks. Steam shot up thousands of feet into the air for almost half an hour. Ash and smoke moved southwards for several miles.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We certainly have renewed activity, and it's very possible we'll see more of these small steam eruptions that we saw today.

OSIAS: It looks serene, but for the past week there have been rumblings until this majestic facade, a seismically charged witches' brew of debris from earthquakes, landslides and avalanches simmering under her dome. Today rocks the size of cars shot up through a glacier wall behind the dome. The pressure release was so intense, scientists say the force blew the only GPS device clear out of the crater.

TOM PIERSON, GEOLOGIST: It is one small explosion. It could be the first of a string of these explosions. Some could be bigger and once we engage the magma that is deeper down, we could get a little bit bigger ones yet.

OSIAS: A geologist who flew over the scene at the time of their eruption, spoke in awe of nature's power.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When natural events like that take and they take place so rapidly, they're obviously an attraction, something that's just fun to watch.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OSIAS: The alert level remains heightened here as eruptions could happen again at any time. Scientists say today's hiccup is sort of like clearing your throat. It feels good at first, but you may need to do it again. Aaron.

BROWN: Kimberly thank you, something to see though for those of us who were there the first time or the first most recent time, thank you very much Kimberly Osias at Mount St. Helens.

We're in Las Vegas tonight, and when we come back, Las Vegas, a city that is ever-changing, ever reinventing itself. From the hot strip, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Hunter Thomson subtitled his masterpiece "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, A Savage Journey to the Heart of the American Dream." That was in 1971, many iterations of this city ago. Since then, millions have made the trip out here, hundreds of thousands have wound up staying. What they discovered is a place that's still a little savage, especially in the noonday sun, and really late at night, always seductive, and never, ever dull.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HAL ROTHMAN, PROFESSOR, U. OF NEVADA: It's a city of excess. It's a city that says your desires are OK. It's a city that says we're here to fulfill those desires. It's the place where instinct has replaced restraint. Where a leisure society goes to fulfill itself. It's a place that holds a mirror up to you and say what do you want to pay and what do you pay to be in it? You pay enough, we'll make you into that.

BROWN: Fantasy has always been the racing pulse that drives this city.

SHELLEE RENEE, FORMER ENTERTAINER: I would say it's a provocative town and most people are drawn to provocative things.

Shelly Renee understands provocative. That's her third from the left on the back of the cab. For six years she was a featured dancer in a topless revue known as the "crazy girls."

RENEE: In Las Vegas as a female and especially as a female and an entertainer as a 5'9" blond with a D cup, you have to keep a sense of humor about yourself and about everything. Even now that I'm in the advertising industry, someone will come up to me every now and then go, oh, I heard you're one of the girls on the poster, I say, oh, yeah, you have to make a joke about it. I think it's funny. I came here to leave my mark on Vegas. I didn't know that was going to be the mark that I was going to leave.

OSCAR GOODMAN, MAYOR, LAS VEGAS: We're not advertising come to Las Vegas and have sex. We're saying come to Las Vegas and have a sensual experience.

BROWN: Mayor Oscar Goodman says that with a wink and a nod that the city knows so well.

GOODMAN: We're an adult playland, and I don't think we should ever shirk away from that as being our reputation.

BROWN: Goodman is the city's most shameless promoter. Since 48 states have legalized gambling, Las Vegas markets itself as a destination with lavish hotels, big-name entertainment, and, well, that certain sensuality.

GOODMAN: I tell people that the gateway to my city is a billboard that has the picture of a beautiful woman in a state of recline wearing a pink dress, saying that she'll come to your room. I don't know what she does when she gets to the room, but the sign next to it is advertising Viagra. So maybe that says something about Las Vegas.

BROWN: Numbers also tell you something about Vegas. Last year 35 million visitors came, a record number. They helped generate $32 billion in revenue. Las Vegas is now the fastest-growing city in the United States, about 7,000 people move here every month. Since 1980, the population has quadrupled. 2,000 teachers were hired for this year alone. A new school opens every month, which barely keeps up with demand.

ROTHMAN: The signal issue in Las Vegas in the first decade of the 21st century is growth. What has happened here is that we have grown so quickly that we've outstripped our infrastructure. The result is that we have a system here that depends on growth. It is in fact addicted to growth but the growth here doesn't pay for itself. So in a very strange way we have the wolf by the ears. We can't hang on and we can't let go.

BROWN: But Vegas has a genius for reinventing itself. Sooner or later it always finds a way to deal with reality, even though that's never been what this city is all about.

RENEE: Vegas is not about yesterday or today, it's about tonight.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And it is about tonight.

When we come back tonight, the politics in an important time and some things that may surprise you about the politics of Nevada. From Las Vegas, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The major offensive has started yesterday. We're going to see more of those in the weeks ahead.

In the 2000 election, Nevada went to George W. Bush, though just barely, which surprises a lot of people, just a 3.5 percent margin there -- the prize, four electoral votes. This time around, Nevada is worth five electoral votes. It's grown that much.

Demographics shifting as well, putting different issues in play and making the state one of more of a dozen or so that could decide the presidential election.

So we sat down with voters today in, where else, a casino, to decide whether last night's debate made a difference.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): This is a place where the stakes are especially high, just about as good a metaphor as you want, Nevada voters who watched the debate last night, all who thought John Kerry did well, better than expected. The question is, well enough?

Tina Yan is a Republican.

TINA YAN, VOTER: He always usually appears a little smug to me, and not very endearing, and also not to mention the substantive issues of course I wanted to hear. But in favor of Kerry, I think that the debate pretty went well for him. He seemed more presidential, so to speak. I thought he seemed less smug, and I was happy to see that. And it made me listen to him a little easier than I have in the past.

BROWN: John Mehrtens will vote for Senator Kerry. He's a Democrat. He will feel better about the vote because of last night.

JOHN MEHRTENS, VOTER: I was hoping to see something different from Kerry last night, and I was really impressed. He looked sharp. He looked in command. I think, if you didn't know who was president and you watched the debate, he looked more presidential.

(on camera): What happened as you watched it last night?

JOHN OLENICK, VOTER: When I watched it, I thought that President Bush was kind of hesitant at times and almost searching for words, almost thinking about what script he was supposed to be saying to answer certain questions.

BROWN (voice-over): John Olenick, a Las Vegas attorney, is a registered independent, a social liberal, a fiscal conservative.

OLENICK: I thought that John Kerry was a lot more poised and a lot more comfortable.

BROWN (on camera): Were you surprised by either, either man last night?

OLENICK: You know, to me, I think they said the same things that I've been hearing out of them for the past, you know, six months, maybe longer, whatever it's been, a year. I haven't heard anything new from either candidate that makes me want to go out and cast a vote for either one at this time. BROWN (voice-over): For Susie LaFrenz, a secretary at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, the war in Iraq is a huge issue, maybe the issue.

SUSIE LAFRENZ, VOTER: It just aggravates me to think that all these soldiers are over there, and the war is supposed to be over, and we've had more deaths after it's supposedly been over than during -- when it was going on.

OLENICK: I also think that that was one of the biggest mistakes President Bush did was to go out and land on an aircraft carrier and declare that the mission was accomplished. I think, at that point in time, it was clear to me that the mission wasn't accomplished.

BROWN (on camera): You were really a kid. You weren't threatened by Vietnam.

(CROSSTALK)

OLENICK: No.

BROWN: You think Iraq has the potential to become it?

OLENICK: Oh, hands down, yes. Everything is the same. You've got guerrilla warfare basically going on. You've got people who don't want you in their country doing anything they can to get you out of their country. It's all very similar.

BROWN: What do you wish you heard that you didn't hear last night from one or the other?

OLENICK: I wish I would have heard more of a plan from Kerry. You know, he keeps throwing out -- you call them sound bites. And that's pretty much all I heard. And I heard pretty much the same thing from Bush. I didn't hear any meat or anything that really would sway my opinion of either one of the candidates.

BROWN: Did it ever occur to you that maybe they really don't know?

OLENICK: That's why I think that neither of them really know. I don't know if there are simple solutions to any of the problems we're talking about here.

BROWN (voice-over): But the deal is far from closed. With the exception of Mehrtens, the next debates are crucial. Minds are still being made up.

(on camera): You're going to vote for the president, aren't you?

LAFRENZ: No, I don't think I am. Today, I'm not.

BROWN: Today, you're not.

LAFRENZ: After last night, I wouldn't vote for the president.

BROWN: What does he got to do to get you back, then?

LAFRENZ: He's got to be more convincing that this war is going to end.

YAN: The first debate, if anything, brought me closer to Kerry, but I felt I was already leaning toward Bush. So it's going to be very important for me to watch the next two debates. No one has closed the deal for me yet.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Some voters this afternoon.

We're joined by Penn Jillette, who is the louder half of the magic team of Penn & Teller.

It's nice to meet you.

PENN JILLETTE, PENN & TELLER: Nice to meet you.

BROWN: You said to us today the campaign is, in its own way, like a magic trick.

JILLETTE: Well, I said -- it's a magician's choice.

There's this thing you do in magic where you give people a free choice that isn't. And it's the basis of a lot of magic tricks. I put out two cards and I say point to one. And you point to this one, I go, OK, that will be yours. I'll take this one. You point to this one, I say, OK, I'll take this one. That's yours. You have no real choice.

And there's a weird thing here where you can't really find the difference between the two candidates. Everything's going on personality. I mean, 30,000 pages of federal tax code and they disagree on one digit, right? Bush says 35 percent. Kerry says, what, 37 percent?

BROWN: So do you actually believe that, no matter who is elected, or regardless of who is elected, that the country will function essentially the same?

JILLETTE: I really, really think it will. I'm not saying this in a cynical way.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Of course you're not cynical.

JILLETTE: No, I don't think it's cynical. I think it's really idealistic. I think we would really like to see two parties that had a real idealistic base, as opposed to Republicans, who are going for big government, and Democrats that are cutting -- doing the same thing exactly.

BROWN: Why not vote for Ralph Nader, then? (CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: I think -- yes, I think any vote that people would say is wasted I think is a good choice, anything that tells them...

BROWN: But that's not cynical?

JILLETTE: No, I don't think so.

I think it's the Jerome Horowitz theory. You know Jerome Horowitz. He's not as Curly Howard on "The Three Stooges."

BROWN: OK, thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

JILLETTE: You know, Curly -- Moe would say to Curly, pick two, pick two.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: And then Curly would pick two, and then Moe would poke him in the eyes.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: And Curly always knew he was going to get poked in the eyes, but Curly never bothered to say, no, I'm not going to pick two.

And I think that you have got to have a big part of the population saying, we won't vote for nut third-party candidates or we won't vote. You can't keep voting for the lesser of two evils or things just get more evil or skankier.

BROWN: But not enough people will do that to make a difference. I mean, look

(CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: Well, half the people are doing that.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Half the people aren't voting at all.

JILLETTE: Yes. Yes.

BROWN: That's exactly right.

JILLETTE: And if you gave them -- we saw that in Minnesota a bit with Jesse.

BROWN: Yes.

JILLETTE: If they do that until there's a good candidate, then that candidate can come up under the radar. I don't know. With the campaign financial reform, it gets much harder, but that you do have all those people that could all of sudden go, no, no, that's a good person.

BROWN: What is it you'd like to hear a candidate say that you are not hearing?

JILLETTE: I would just like to say much more freedom. I'd like to have some candidate just say, you know, we can't trade freedom for safety. We're not going to get that much more safety. Let's just go with freedom, and let's bring everybody back from Iraq and not try to be world policemen.

Let's just try a very, almost isolationist country with just as much freedom as you can possibly do, and let anybody in. If you're having trouble in your country, come on over.

BROWN: But you've got -- not to be a complete downer, but if there were a terrorist incident in this town, one, this town dies.

JILLETTE: I think that you have to...

BROWN: I mean, how can you talk about isolating ourselves in a world that's impossible to isolate?

(CROSSTALK)

JILLETTE: I didn't mean isolation in that way. I meant not attacking other countries.

What we're doing is recruiting for al Qaeda. When you're over there with all that stuff, you get people angry. I think if we kept to ourselves a little more, we would be much better off. And, also, if you have freedom, there are dangers with that. It's live free or die. There's dangers to it. I'd like to go with some of that danger.

BROWN: Well, it's the New England in you coming out.

JILLETTE: Yes, it is, Massachusetts.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: You're working tonight. What time is the show?

JILLETTE: I'm going to be on stage playing my bass at 8:00, and then 9:00 start doing the magic.

BROWN: Wonderful coming by.

JILLETTE: Thanks a lot.

BROWN: Thank you very much.

JILLETTE: Thank you.

BROWN: Penn Jillette with us.

We'll take a break and we'll play the odds, sort of, when we come back in Las Vegas. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Sprint time for the candidates, Bush and Kerry. They'll be in overdrive for the next month. Daily polls will tell us who's in the lead. They won't handicap the winner. We'll leave that job to the real professionals.

We're joined by one of top of them, top oddsmaker in Las Vegas, Kenny White.

Nice to see you.

It's in fact not legal to make a bet, make a book, really, on an election, but you all do it for fun, right?

KENNY WHITE, ODDSMAKER: Yes, Aaron, thanks for having me here tonight. Pleasure.

We are prohibited in the state to take wagers on any political office.

BROWN: But you do, do it for fun. And so where are the odds now?

WHITE: Yes, we do. Right now, Bush is the favorite 3-5. That means if you bet $5 on President Bush, you receive $8 back, $3 you win, plus your wager. John Kerry is at right now 9-5. So if you bet $5, you win $9. You will get back $14.

BROWN: Did it change from yesterday to today?

WHITE: Yes, it did. Yes, it did.

BROWN: How much?

WHITE: It changed about 60 cents. It came down from

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Is that a lot or a little?

WHITE: That's a big move, yes. It's a big move.

A 240 favorite is probably around 70 percent winner. And now he's down to about a 65 percent winner.

BROWN: And when you're making book on football, you look at injuries and records, and, horses, you look at mud and all sorts of -- what are you looking at?

WHITE: Right.

Well, when we're looking at odds on the presidential election, many different categories. We're looking at what states that he will hold. And there's different bets on the popular vote, that, right now, the Democratic Party is a 1.1 million-person favorite for the popular vote. And then for the electoral, under and over is 29 1/2 states for President Bush.

BROWN: And what moved it yesterday, just the debate?

WHITE: The debate moved it, yes. Felt that Bush's strong point would be foreign policy. And that's where Kerry has taken over, so he's won one of the categories that you're looking at when you're handicapping a presidential election.

BROWN: But just enough of politics.

In half-a-minute, where does most of the money, the sport book money go, football?

WHITE: Football, yes.

BROWN: Pro football?

WHITE: Yes, pro football is the

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Far and away?

WHITE: That's the king, the king. That's what we live on, our bread and butter.

BROWN: And the rest of the year, what do you do?

(CROSSTALK)

WHITE: We make numbers on basketball and baseball, but we wait for the football season.

BROWN: And so you're in business now?

WHITE: Yes. Yes.

BROWN: Thanks for coming by.

WHITE: Thank you, Aaron. Thanks for having me.

BROWN: I may come visit you. We'll talk about Sunday.

WHITE: Great. Thank you.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Whatever help you can give me.

We'll take a break and we'll be right back from Las Vegas.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: That's the Green Valley in Las Vegas, all the subdivisions, all the building .

On the subject of green, my assistant Meg (ph) has a little extra green in her pocket tonight. She won $3 in the slot machines while we were getting our bags at the airport. I told her, quit while she's ahead.

This, too, is part of the Nevada story; 50 years ago in the desert just north of Las Vegas, the United States government launched a series of nuclear tests that would last for 17 years. Eventually, the testing moved underground, but not before government photographers had documented hundreds of explosions. In his book "100 Suns," the photographer Michael Light has pulled together some of the most dramatic images, the previously classified material now visible in stills to all of us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL LIGHT, AUTHOR, "100 SUNS": ... to realize, but the United States detonated 216 tests atmospherically, and about 106 of those were detonated on the continent of the United States 60 miles north of Las Vegas, which they felt was the emptiest place in the country.

We did 216 tests from '45 to '62 in the air, but we went on to do 800 more underground. And so, effectively, this period from '45 to '62, these atmospheric tests are the only records we have of what the bomb looks like.

A detonation creates a mushroom cloud because of the upward- moving forces. In the desert, they are very, very clean. A lot of the classic sort of dirty mushroom clouds that we see come from desert detonations that were low to the ground, so they suck up a lot of dust. The test in Nevada called "Stokes," it's quite an amazing photograph. It's one of most surreal images in the book.

The Army wanted to find out just what would happen to an airship with the air blast coming out from the nuclear detonation. And there's a remarkable photograph of this blimp face down, kind of crumpled with the tail intact, with the blast of the bomb in the back, the classic mushroom cloud in the back.

"Smoky" is a phenomenal diptych in the book. On the one side, you have soldiers crouching, hiding their heads from as the detonation just as detonation is going, and then as the fireball is rising and glowing and given off ionic radiation, the soldiers have turned around are just gazing at it agog and astounded.

There's an image of soldiers in a trench, very, very close to the point of detonation, which the Army pushed successively over the years its soldiers closer and closer and closer in an attempt to create an atomically capable army. And then the other -- they're both from Turkey. The other image shows the media viewpoint, which is about six, seven miles away, raised up, the benches down below.

And then off in the distance is the detonation. And it's so hot a detonation that it's caused the film to reverse itself, which is a process called solarization.

"Mike" was the first hydrogen bomb. And it was detonated in 1952. It was 10.4 megatons. And that alone is more detonative explosive power than all explosions in both World Wars combined. The cloud rose to a height of about 120,000 feet and at its widest was longer than Long Island. Every reader has to grapple with his or her attraction to these images. One is responding inevitably to this beauty, and, of course, then you're also responding to knowledge of what this is.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Well, a few other items that made news today. We'll take a break. We'll tell you those, as we continue on a Friday night from Las Vegas.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Briefly, a few other stories that made news today before we head off back home.

First, a new message from al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, an audiotape released today. Up first, he calls on young Muslims to keep fighting if he or other al Qaeda leaders are captured or killed. The CIA says it believes the tape from al-Zawahri is legitimate.

In the Middle East, at least 12 Palestinians were killed, dozens injured, as Israeli troops and tanks pounded northern Gaza for the second day in a row. The operation code-named Days of Penitence is in an attempt to stop Palestinian militants from firing rockets into Israel, which they've been able to do.

The House Ethics Committee slapped Majority Leader Tom DeLay yesterday, but did so fairly gently, as these things go. He was admonished, the committee saying Mr. DeLay violated House rules when he tried to swap votes with another congressman. Mr. DeLay said he would never knowingly violate the House rules.

One other note. We began the week in Seattle and we end it up there, more or less, with an extraordinary baseball record, the most hits in a single season. Ichiro Suzuki, Ichiro, the Seattle Mariner's right-fielder, tied tonight an 84-year-old record with his 257th hit. He has two more days to break George Sisler's record. Isn't it? I think so. It's a record that has stood for a long time, since the dead ball era.

Not long ago, we talked about how everyone in this business sooner or later gets a visit from the humility gods. Well, we can report tonight today it was Fox News' turn. First, an item went up on its Web site, a piece with quotations from Senator Kerry about manicures and metrosexuality the sounded more than a little bit iffy, but they were quotations, Fox told us. Next came the retraction and the apology.

The item it read was based on a reporter's partial script that had been written in jest. "We regret the error," it went on to say, "which occurred because of fatigue and bad judgment and not malice." Hmm.

We'll wrap it up when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Our thanks again to all the people at the House of Blues Foundation Room and the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas.

We're back in New York next week. Have a wonderful weekend from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

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