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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Post-Debate Analysis

Aired October 09, 2004 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening again, everyone, as Friday becomes Saturday here in the East. Again, the debaters have done their thing. Again, the spin goes on. Why do we do that? Do they ever say anything that's surprising? If I had to guess, nothing much changed tonight. The Bush supporters, unlike the last time, will feel better. The Kerry people should feel fine after it all. It'll be a few more days before we know if the undecideds, assuming there are any undecideds left, have been moved at all or will hold on for one more week, one more debate, or maybe even longer.
We have lots of people to talk to. To take a look at what went on in St. Louis, we begin in St. Louis with "The Whip." Our senior White House correspondent, John King, starts us off. John, the headline from you tonight.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, the simplest headline is that the Republicans are happy. They say the president showed up tonight and was quite assertive and aggressive, as compared to his performance in the last debate. They think he did a much better job explaining his policy in Iraq and began to lay the groundwork for saying John Kerry is a tax-happy liberal -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, get back to you pretty quick tonight. Candy Crowley, working in the Show Me State, as well, covering the Kerry side of the debate. And let me guess. Your headline might have to do with how pleased they are.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You are absolutely right about that. They came into this night saying, What we really need to do is continue the momentum. They think the mission was accomplished -- Aaron.

BROWN: Thank you, Candy. We'll get more on that. Did debate No. 2 change the balance of the race at all? A headline from our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, who is also in St. Louis -- Jeff.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, Aaron, if it sounded like President Bush and Senator Kerry were at two different events tonight, there is a reason. They were pursuing two fundamentally different strategies. The president was talking to his base; Senator Kerry was talking to the middle. We'll find out in a couple of weeks whose strategy worked -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. And how are those words -- there were many spoken in St. Louis tonight -- shaping the numbers, which, after all, in the end, is what matters? CNN's Bill Schneider in Washington tonight, taking a look at the first quick poll -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: A clear winner like last time? No. But one candidate did score points with debate watchers.

BROWN: Bill, thank you. We'll get those numbers in a bit and talk to all of you coming up.

There is other news to report, and we'll get to that in the hour. Kidnappers in Iraq behead a British hostage after what appears to be a failed attempt to escape his captors. And Martha Stewart made millions as the homemaking guru. She now has a new home. We're actually required by federal law, I think, to report this. And at the end of the hour, a first look at tomorrow with "Morning Papers." All that and more in the hour ahead on this Saturday morning.

We begin in St. Louis with debate No. 2 at the end of a full week of news about Iraq, a week that saw a considerable tightening in the polls and a day that saw a less than stellar employment report, all of which helped frame the debate tonight. Here's the overview from CNN's Judy Woodruff.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The ground first trod was familiar: Iraq. George W. Bush kept a theme, accusing his challenger of blowing with the political winds.

GEORGE WALKER BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't see how you can lead this country in a time of war, in a time of uncertainty, if you change your mind because of politics.

WOODRUFF: And John Kerry charged the president rushed to war, fracturing international alliances in the process.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The world is more dangerous today. The world is more dangerous today because the president didn't make the right judgments.

WOODRUFF: Iraq consumed just over a third of the wide-ranging debate, as uncommitted voters in the town meeting posed questions on topics ranging from the environment to stem cell research. No surprise, the economy was a favorite focus, with Kerry noting the latest not-so-rosy jobs figures.

KERRY: Now, the president has presided over an economy where we've lost 1.6 million jobs. First president in 72 years to lose jobs.

WOODRUFF: As Bush painted his rival as a dyed-in-the-wool liberal, full of promises he wouldn't be able to pay for without raising taxes.

BUSH: Now, he just going to break all these wonderful promises he's told you about or he's going to raise taxes.

WOODRUFF: Prompting a pledge from Kerry on middle class taxes.

KERRY: Right into the camera, yes, I am no going to raise taxes...

WOODRUFF: The format gave both men a chance to showcase their personal skills, addressing questioners by name, roaming freely around the stage.

BUSH: That answer almost made me want to scowl.

WOODRUFF: But he didn't, at least not much. He smiled a lot and even winked once. The fighting words flew (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: That was Judy Woodruff with the overview. Standing by in St. Louis, CNN's John King, our senior White House correspondent. Candy Crowley has been covering the Kerry campaign. And they obviously were watching all that went on tonight.

John, let's start with you. Do you think that -- you go to all these "ask the president" events that the president does. Was there anything significantly different in what he said tonight from what he says day in and day out at these "town hall" meetings -- in quotes -- that he does?

KING: Not from a substance perspective, no. The president is not asked as many tougher questions or more direct questions when he's on those "ask the president" events. They tend to be, Mr. President, you're great. Can you explain this? They're supporters in the room for those events. So the questions were a little tougher tonight.

The Bush campaign came into this with one urgent mission, and that is to reenergize the Republican base, which became a bit dispirited after the president's performance in the first debate. They certainly believe they accomplished that. They also think that the president helped himself both on handling of Iraq and handling of the broader war on terrorism in his answers tonight. We will see over time whether the polls reflect that.

One interesting moment, Aaron. You say, Anything different? The president was asked specifically by one woman in the audience to name three mistakes he has made as president. The president doesn't like those questions. He doesn't like to admit mistakes. And he didn't name any specific mistakes, but he did concede that some things had gone wrong.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: In a war, there's a lot of -- there's a lot of tactical decisions that historians will look back and say, You shouldn't have done that. You shouldn't have made that decision. And I'll take responsibility for them. I'm human. But on the big questions about whether or not we should have gone into Afghanistan, the big question about whether we should have removed somebody in Iraq, I'll stand by those decisions because I think they're right. (END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now, this is a turning point, of sorts, in that about half of this debate was dedicated to domestic issues. The entire third debate is to be dedicated to domestic issues. The polls will tell you that is Senator Kerry's ground, or more favorable ground, anyway. So the Bush campaign came in tonight with a clear strategy: begin to lay the predicate that Senator Kerry's promises cannot be paid for without raising taxes, begin to more and more discuss his 19-year record in the Senate, which the Bush campaign says has been all but absent in the campaign debating points so far. The president twice or three times used the term "You can run but you cannot hide from your record in the Senate." The Bush campaign, again, believes it began to lay the groundwork for making the case to the American people that his opponent is the most liberal senator in the United States Congress -- Mr. Bush made that point -- and that his promises simply do not add up and he would have to raise taxes. The president said, Aaron, that would hurt the economy. Consider that perhaps laying the foundation for what you will hear in debate No. 3.

BROWN: OK. Now, John, if you can -- I'm not sure what the issues are there, but if you can, stay with us. Let me bring Candy in and get her quick take on this, and then the three of us will chat for a minute or 30 seconds or whatever we have.

Candy, anything in the Kerry performance that was surprising either in style or substance?

CROWLEY: Neither, I think. They -- we certainly heard very much the same things that we've heard along the campaign trail. It should not be surprising that he is both articulate and eloquent in presenting his case. He certainly did that on both Iraq and on the various domestic issues that came up. So no, I didn't see anything at all that sounded -- certainly, about new policy or even that many new lines. But he was particularly strong on Iraq and used some of the things that happened this week, Aaron, that the Kerry campaign really believes promotes their case, among them the complaint from the top civilian that the president sent to Iraq that there were not enough troops on the ground to control all of the looting. The president responded and said, Look, I listened to the generals on the ground, and Kerry came right back and said, Not good enough.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: You rely on good military people to execute the military component of the strategy, but winning the peace is larger than just the military component. General Shinseki had the wisdom to say, You're going to need several hundred thousand troops to win the peace. The military's job is to win the war. The president's job is to win the peace. The president did not do what was necessary -- didn't bring in enough nations, didn't deliver the help, didn't close off the borders, didn't even guard the ammo dumps. And now our kids are being killed with ammos right out of that dump.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KING: Coming down the steps here to the spin room, out of the debate hall, Aaron, I ran into one Democratic operative, and I said, So now what? And he said, Tempe. So there we go.

BROWN: That's my question. John, now what? Does the Bush campaign, in the week coming up, shift its advertising towards domestic issues to sort of lay the groundwork? Does the stump speech change to lay the groundwork for Tempe, or do they just keep going the way they're going?

KING: Well, one of the things we will see now in the final three weeks is for the advertising strategy to change state by state. In states where manufacturing jobs have been lost, look for the president to do what he did today. A relatively modest job growth comes out. You would think the president would run from that a bit. Instead, the put out a new ad saying nearly two million jobs created in the past year, trying to spin that news to the most favorable light for them.

We will have to watch the advertising now much more closely state by state because in some states, the economy's doing well. In other states, it's not doing so well. In some states, leadership is the key issue. In others, it is economic. So we will get now a much more battleground-driven strategy after having for months now more of a national strategy.

In terms of heading into Tempe, they know it's domestic issues. This president has to make the case that, yes, he will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net job loss during his presidency. Mr. Bush will say recession, September 11, the shortest -- one of the shortest recessions in history because of his tax cuts. That will be the defining debate coming forward, one of the key reasons they wanted to spend some time tonight say, John Kerry has consistently voted for higher taxes, that will hurt the economy. It's Senator Kerry's ground, if you believe the polls, but the Bush White House believes it can turn the tables on him. That will be the key debating point, I think, in Tempe.

BROWN: John, Candy, thank you both. Save travels down the road, and we'll talk to you after the weekend. Thank you both.

CNN's Joe Johns was also watching, listening with a team of people in Washington, trying to compare what was said to the record, what were the facts of all of this. So what did you come up with, buddy?

JOE JOHNS, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: ... and exaggeration. More than once, President Bush said John Kerry is the most liberal member of the Senate, citing the "National Journal's" rankings of senators by their recorded votes. That's technically true for 2003, but it's far from the whole story. Kerry's lifetime rating put him as the 11th most liberal senator. Once he started running for president, his voting attendance fell off dramatically, throwing the "National Journal's" methodology off. The "Journal" tossed out all of his votes on social and foreign policy, because he hadn't cast enough votes on those issues, and based Kerry's ranking solely on his domestic policy votes, on 22 of 62 total votes cast. Without the full accounting, the "National Journal's" lifetime ranking of Kerry as the 11th most liberal senator is more fair than the label of most liberal.

For his part, Kerry appears to have overstated the number of lost jobs since Bush took office. Kerry said the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs since 2001. That is true, if all you're considering is the private sector. If you add the government jobs created during that period, the net job loss is 821,000, almost half the figure Kerry cited.

All in all, though, at first glance, the vast majority of the assertions each made tonight had at least some basis in fact, but of course, when it suited their ends, both candidates left out the other side of the story -- Aaron.

BROWN: Well, imagine that, Joe! Thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Imagine -- wow! That's like, what, another shocker out of the spin room tonight. Thank you, buddy. Joe Johns in Washington.

Jeff Greenfield is in St. Louis. Jeff, you said in "The Whip" tonight one was playing to his base, the other was playing to the middle. Lay this out.

GREENFIELD: All right. From the very beginning, the Bush campaign has said this is a mobilization campaign, not a campaign to win over undecideds nearly as much as it is to get their base out. In fact, for the last four years, strategist Karl Rove has been saying there are four million white evangelicals who stayed home in 2000. That's why we lost the popular vote. We've got to make sure they get out and not be outgunned on the ground.

The Kerry campaign's view is, We've got to get those people in the middle who are dissatisfied with the president, a little uncertain about John Kerry. We got to convince them that we're trustworthy enough with the job of the commander-in-chief.

So when you look at this debate -- and I'm now giving you my opinion, not a measurement. For me, one of the strongest points for the president, given this strategy, was when he was able to talk about partial-birth abortion and no tax dollars to pay for abortions because while abortion is a general issue, people tend to be pro-choice, the great majority of Americans are against partial-birth abortion and uneasy about tax financing. And his base, in particular, feels strongly about that.

By contrast, I think Senator Kerry's strongest moments came on things like embryonic stem cell research, where moderates and centrists kind of agree with him, even if they're uneasy about abortion. Importation of drugs from Canada -- that's a very big issue among people who can't afford the price of prescription drugs. And the general health care debate, which tends to go for Democrats and tends to persuade people who are with Bush on social issues, but not entirely, and kind of with the Democrats on economic concerns.

That's what I meant when I said that these two candidates -- they may have been talking to the same audience in that hall here in St. Louis, but out there among the tens of millions watching, Aaron, they were talking to two different constituencies, I believe.

BROWN: Much was made, I think fairly, in fact, about sort of the president's petulance or peevishness last week. He was less so. But just watching the body language of these two guys, the president really does move like a Texas gunslinger, a little hunched over when he moves in. Kerry glides. What was your -- what's your take on the style points tonight?

GREENFIELD: Yes, it was very interesting. This is like a judge of the, what, the gymnastics, I guess. On one of the conservative weblogs that I was looking at, there was an argument going on about whether the president was too strident or whether this was the president they wanted to see. And once again, if you're remembering that the president, in my view, is appealing to his base, they wanted to see this tough, Gary Cooper, "High Noon," a little bit of a gunslinger but a tough guy willing to show up and contest Kerry face to face.

Kerry was much more the kind of guy who learned how to debate in school. He would take the president's arguments and turn them. He would listen to one answer and remind people of what another questioner asked. On at least two occasions, he reminded the president of what he said in the same hall four years ago.

BROWN: Yes.

GREENFIELD: That's much more a tactical kind of debate, as opposed to the kind of, Let's go out and get tough, that the president was doing. Two different -- two definitely strategies here, Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you for breaking them down for us. Jeff Greenfield in St. Louis.

Now the early polling -- and we stress "early." Bill Schneider in Washington. Bill, first the sort of basic, "Who won," if the poll can tell us that.

SCHNEIDER: Well, in the last debate, that was clear -- Kerry 53, Bush 37, a 16-point margin for John Kerry. But this time, it wasn't quite so clear. The results showed among debate viewers, Kerry 47, Bush 45, just a 2-point lead. But keep this in mind. Among debate watchers, Republicans outnumbered Democrats. And before the debate, they favored Bush over Kerry by 4 points. So for those debate watchers to say, as we see here, that Kerry won by 2 points means Kerry made some progress.

BROWN: And one more question, then I -- well, actually, I have two. But let me get you on the issues first. Did we break this down on Iraq and the economy and the like?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, we did. We asked, "Which candidate can better handle the economy?" And the result was a tie, 49 to 49. But before the debate, these same people favored Bush on the economy by 6 points. So there's progress for Kerry. On Iraq, it was a different story. Before the debate, viewers thought Kerry would do -- Kerry would do a better job on Iraq. After watching the debate, they gave Bush the edge on Iraq, as you see here, 53 to 46. The reason is they thought, as Jeff just said, Bush came across as a tougher guy who could handle international issues better.

So overall, Kerry did make progress because in this debate, the agenda shifted to domestic issues, particularly the economy. And as it happens, as we know, the next debate will be entirely on domestic issues.

BROWN: All right, we've got one minute for this. If you could remember, coming out of the last debate, the first poll gives the win to John Kerry. How much over the course of the next 72 hours did the number change? And I think the question here is, to what degree are people influenced by the poll itself?

SCHNEIDER: Very good question. These polls were immediate polls, to give people a chance to express their opinion having just watched the debate. In the next couple of days, people are going to talk to their friends and neighbors. They're going to hear the analysis. They're going to read the newspapers. And they can be influenced by the spin and by the analysis.

What happened in the last debate was very interesting. Immediately after the debate, as we just reported, by a 16-point margin, people thought that Kerry had won the debate. But by the end of the weekend after that debate, people thought Kerry had won by a 38-point margin. More than 60 percent said Kerry had won. That became the reality. So the spin matters. The analysis matters because in the next couple of days, people are going to be forming very significant impressions that they're not really sure of yet.

BROWN: Every now and then, I nail a question. Thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Bill Schneider in Washington tonight.

We'll take a break. Coming up, the "Brown Table" joins us. Joe Klein from "Time" magazine is here. Much more ahead. This is NEWSNIGHT from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Fifteen or so states still considered in play, but these are the money states, more or less: Florida, which, of course, you know, that the president won, if barely, and some will argue that. In Ohio -- Republicans must win Ohio. The president won there. It is very close. The last poll I saw in Ohio was within the margin. Saw two polls out of Pennsylvania yesterday. One had Kerry up 7, the other had Kerry up 2. So the latter within the margin. All of which proves again the country is divided. In those three states, 68 electoral votes in all.

The "Brown Table" is with us, split between two cities -- three folks, two cities. In St. Louis tonight, "The Wall Street Journal's" John Harwood. In Washington, "The Boston Globe's" Nina Easton and Terry Neal of the Washingtonpost.com. We're glad to see all of you.

John, since you're in St. Louis, you start. Anything significantly change tonight? The dynamic of this race change tonight?

JOHN HARWOOD, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": I don't think so. You had the president reassuring Republicans who were quite nervous going into this debate. They thought that if he had repeat of last week, you might really see some substantial erosion in his support. They are feeling a lot better. He hit a lot of the notes important to his Republican base. Conservatives are likely to be energized.

From John Kerry's point of view, he had 90 minutes before a very large audience to appear steady and presidential and strong and to try to rebut some of those ideological arguments that the president was making.

So I think both sides got what they wanted. Different views of the electorate. John Kerry thinks there's more of a center out there to appeal to. George W. Bush thinks getting his base mobilized is the name of the game.

BROWN: Did anyone think -- Terry, Nina -- that the president, particularly in the first 30 minutes, was a bit overcaffeinated? I mean, he really came out perhaps a little more aggressively than is comfortable on television. Sometimes things in the hall feel one way but on TV feel another. Nina?

NINA EASTON, "BOSTON GLOBE": I thought he was a bit defensive, you're right, in that first half. And it was interesting, too. You talked about body language earlier. It was kind of interesting how Kerry almost invaded President Bush's space, went right up to him, talked to him, was very much the challenger. And Bush was a little bit, like, you know, he was -- Kerry was a bit of a bug on his shoulder, and he completely ignored him. I thought that body language was interesting.

But I also thought Bush, while he was a bit defensive at the beginning, really, interestingly, found his footing on domestic issues. And Kerry lost his footing just a bit. And so it'll be very interesting to see next week's debate, when it does turn to just to domestic issues.

BROWN: Terry, do you agree with that, the president seemed stronger on domestic stuff than you might have thought?

TERRY NEAL, WASHINGTONPOST.COM: I actually thought that he did fairly well on both. I thought he got -- in general, got stronger through the debate. I think what he did better this time than he did last time is that he didn't resort so quickly and easily to the platitudes, the -- you know, We're about freedom, and things like that. I mean, he debated the issues, and I thought that he had some good -- I thought he was much more prepared. And he had a lot of energy. I thought Kerry's problem, on the other hand, was that he -- I think Kerry did a pretty good job, but I don't think that he was -- I think he could have been more aggressive than he was, and he certainly could have used these two reports that came out this week, one on the economy and one on Iraq, to -- to a much better extent than he did.

BROWN: John, how did you think -- in what respects, other than the president seemed a little less peevish tonight -- the president was different from a week ago?

HARWOOD: Well, I think, to Nina's point about him finding his footing on domestic issues -- remember, this is a president who came into office expecting to have a domestic presidency. The 9/11 changed all that. He was not very good on foreign policy tonight. The overcaffeinated style you mentioned at the beginning -- he was quite agitated at the beginning. He looked defensive. He looked like somebody who was sort of trying to push the rock uphill, convincing people why -- why he really should have gone to war against Iraq, even though there were no weapons of mass destruction.

But when he got to domestic issues, some of those ideological points -- tax cuts, a certain -- tort reform, judicial reform, that sort of thing -- he was getting into areas where he's more comfortable with the substance and has been for a long period of time.

BROWN: All right, we've got about 90 seconds. I want to get all of you in. What has to happen in Tempe, Nina?

EASTON: Well, I think, obviously, both -- both candidates have to continue to perform strongly. Domestic issues -- it's so interesting in this election that national security issues are front and center. And this will be -- even in this debate, where it was a town hall forum, national security really dominated the first part of the debate. And that's not going to be the case next week.

BROWN: Terry, what does John Kerry have to do in Tempe?

NEAL: Well, I think John Kerry has to go -- I think John Kerry has been listening to his consultants a lot. He's been reading right out of the consultants' handbook, which says, you know, likability is very important in these debates. I think, in some ways, he's been almost too nice. I think that he's got to get a little bit more aggressive. I think that he's got to make his -- his attacks a little bit sharper. He's got to be a little bit more clear and really go after the president and -- just a little bit more, without being disrespectful. And if he can do that and can win next week's debate, I think he'll be in a pretty good position (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

BROWN: Did the -- just very quickly, Terry. Did the domestic -- does the domestic side of the contest give him the forum to be a more aggressive player?

NEAL: Well, you would think that it does. But I mean, tonight, the president was pretty good in making his case about tax cuts and that sort of thing. He -- it can be, but he's got to take charge and make it -- put -- make it go to his advantage. It's not just going to fall in his lap.

BROWN: And John, last word from you. How has Tempe got to be different? Either -- pick one, pick the other or just the overview, if you want. What do they have to accomplish?

HARWOOD: Well, I suspect it's not going to be all that different. I suspect it's going to come out to be a draw. Both men are going to be encouraged by their performance tonight. I think from John Kerry's point of view -- I disagree with Terry. I think that what John Kerry needs to do -- there are a lot of people out there that his campaign believes are uncomfortable with Bush, aren't quite ready to go with Kerry. I think he's got to continue to make himself comfortable for those people and an acceptable alternative. I'm not sure the attacking Bush is really what he needs to do. The case against Bush has been made for months now, and I think that John Kerry's got a little bit of a different plan.

BROWN: John, Terry, Nina, have good weekends. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Thank you very much for your work tonight.

I don't know why I just thought of this, but just imagine the pressure of the two candidates, not that being the president doesn't have pressure, but the pressure of these debates on these two men, and everybody watching what they do.

Joe Klein is with us. We'll take a break first, then talk with Joe. This is NEWSNIGHT from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: "TIME" magazine's Joe Klein is with us. Pretty good on this political stuff. He'd better be. He makes a living at it.

JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: I don't know. It's getting pretty late tonight, Aaron.

BROWN: Good to have you with us. Let's try to cover three things, if we can.

I thought maybe Senator Kerry created a problem for himself in the way he answered a question about taxes.

KLEIN: Yes. I think you saw one of those classic flip-flops that drive the Bush people crazy and a lot of Republicans crazy.

Kerry criticized Bush at one point for cutting taxes during a war. And then within a minute, maybe within the same answer -- I'd have to look at the transcript -- he promised a middle class tax cut.

Now granted, his middle class tax cut were, you know, targeted taxes on child care credits and college tuition tax credits. That's still a tax cut. And if we are in a crisis, if we're in a war, it was striking to me, once again, that neither of these guys are willing to call for any sort of sacrifice at all.

BROWN: Well, a lot of this can get fleshed out next week, but I think somehow the senator's got to explain, in a way that, frankly, jokers like me can understand where the money is coming from for what he wants to do. But we'll let them do that in Tempe.

Did the president create any problems for himself today?

KLEIN: Well, there is that style problem, you know? You mentioned it before. I think this is, you know, the cliche of the year is if you turn off the sound, the one who looks more comfortable and more commanding wins the debate. That was John Kerry today.

BROWN: Yes.

KLEIN: I mean, you know, which one of these guys you want to have in your living room for the next four years. Everybody thought it would be hands down Bush, but he seemed kind of tense and angry and -- and Kerry seemed elegant and just on.

BROWN: Just to be clear on what I observed here, because I'm not -- what I observed was just this...

KLEIN: What did you observe?

BROWN: ... fascinating difference in their styles. This kind of -- you know, anybody who doesn't think of the president as a Texan, watch him walk. He kind of hunches over his shoulders, and he does -- he has a sort of gunslinger quality. That's -- people may find that perfectly attractive.

Nobody could have found his peevish -- well, I'm not saying nobody, but essentially no one could find his peevishness last week attractive. It just wasn't.

KLEIN: Well, the walk, I think it was Mark Leibovich (ph) in the "Washington Post" said he walks like he's waiting for his Right Guard to dry.

But you know, the interesting thing is, he's supposed to be the laid back, regular guy...

BROWN: Yes.

KLEIN: ... and he seems far more intense than Kerry does.

BROWN: But just walking him all week on the campaign, he has been much more aggressive, much more, to use the idiomatic phrase, this is not the nice guy, the uniter not the divider or four years ago.

KLEIN: Well, he's worried. I mean, you know, to -- to add onto the point that Nina made, Nina Eastman made in the last section, he was much better on domestic policy than he was on the foreign policy, because his whole foreign policy argument fell apart this week. All of the rationales for Iraq fell apart.

On domestic policy, at least he can make the low tax argument. He can make the moral arguments on social issues. And -- and the restrained, you know, a restrained government on health care.

BROWN: Let's assume some of this -- and I suspect it was going to come up again, literally will come up again. Stem cell will come up again. Partial birth abortion will come up again. All those things could come up again, taxes, all the rest.

Who needs to work a better answer on any one or two of those? Here, I'll do it differently.

KLEIN: OK.

BROWN: I thought Kerry fumbled tort reform tonight.

KLEIN: Yes. That was another -- that was another moment where Bush could accuse him of being a flip-flopper, where he said, "Well, John Edwards and I are in favor of tort reform and doing something -- doing something about punitive damages."

BROWN: Well, they do -- I mean, they are.

KLEIN: And they have a plan.

BROWN: He articulated it very well.

KLEIN: They have a plan which is a kind of professional peer review plan...

BROWN: Right.

KLEIN: ... that would lower, and it's too complicated to explain in a debate and sure here. But I think that those kind of answers, where -- where Kerry smudges just a little bit -- abortion was another -- can get him into trouble.

BROWN: Good to see you. Have a good weekend. I hope we'll talk next...

KLEIN: Pleased to be here.

BROWN: Are you going to be here next weekend or there next weekend?

KLEIN: I'm going to -- I'm going to be out there.

BROWN: Of course you are. Good weather out in Tempe. Thank you.

Still ahead on the program, bad news out of Iraq. We'll take a look at that, coming up, unfortunately.

And headlines around the world. "Morning Papers" will come your way on this early Saturday morning in New York.

This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: In Iraq today, the news was grim: another beheading, another hostage murdered. This time it was the British contractor, Kenneth Bigley.

Here's CNN's Brent Sadler.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Kenneth Bigley's life dangled on a thread for 22 agonizing days, ending it seems, after a dramatic escape attempt that failed, according to U.S. and Western diplomatic sources.

Those officials believe some of his captors may also have been killed as a punishment.

In the weeks before his death, Bigley was forced to make heartrending appeals to British Prime Minister Tony Blair to save his life.

KENNETH BIGLEY, BEHEADED IN IRAQ: And Tony Blair, I'm begging you for my life.

SADLER: Bigley was one of three hostages held by militants loyal to suspected al Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The three captives had worked together and got kidnapped together: Americans Eugene Armstrong, Jack Hensley and the 62-year-old Briton.

BIGLEY: My name is Kenneth John Bigley.

SADLER: During his incarceration, he was ruthlessly manipulated to squeeze political concessions from the British government. The price of freedom, a demand coalition forces release Iraqi women from prison.

Within a week of their abduction, the two Americans were killed, decapitated on video. Eugene Armstrong was beheaded by al-Zarqawi himself, claims the CIA, based on voice analysis.

Hensley was killed the next day.

But in a bizarre twist of tactics, the kidnappers spared Bigley's life for another 17 days.

(on camera) Efforts to release Ken Bigley were mobilized in Britain and the Middle East. But even as those efforts gained momentum, U.S.-led military pressure on al-Zarqawi's stronghold in Fallujah intensified.

(voice-over) With repeated airstrikes, targeting his suspected hideouts and mounting loss of life, according to Iraqi doctors in Fallujah. News of Bigley's death followed another deadly attack on the rebel stronghold.

And now it's emerged that just four days before he died, the British government exchanged secret messages with the kidnap group. JACK STRAW, BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY: To kidnap a man, to subject him and his family to the agony of prolonged uncertainty, and then to murder him and in this way, is inhuman.

SADLER: It could be, says Ken Bigley's family, that the fate of all three hostages was sealed from day one. But nobody will ever know.

Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: That was Iraq today.

Saturday morning now in Afghanistan, and voters are going to the polls in the first democratic election, or at least relatively democratic election. People are voting. That is something to say, men and women.

Current president Hamid Karzai, seen as the favorite. Authorities hope millions will vote. Ten million registered, despite the violence from the Taliban, some warlords and their allies.

Here are some other stories that made news today.

The House of Representatives worked late on Friday, trying to finish up before going home to campaign. As part of this last minute rush, they passed a broad intelligence reform bill in response to recommendations from the 9/11 Commission.

However, many doubted the negotiators will be able to bridge the differences with the Senate bill that passed on Wednesday. They are quite different.

School officials across the nation got a bit of good news about those computer disks found in Iraq containing photographs and evacuation plans of eight American schools. Government officials say now there -- there was no proven link to terrorism. The information might have been gathered to help plan Iraqi schools. Pretty benign, that.

And finally, a hoard of photographers and cameras waited in vain outside the Alderson Federal Prison Camp -- Camp Cupcake, they call it, West Virginia -- only to find out Martha Stewart had slipped past them and already started her five-month sentence for lying to federal investigators.

We hope that she's watching the program faithfully in her dorm room tonight.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, debate insight from the actor and the comedian E. L. Hughley. We'll take a break first. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Once in awhile -- actually, like, every four years after the debates, we enjoy hearing a voice from outside the world of journalists and other political junkies. We're joined tonight from Los Angeles by the actor and comedian D. L. Hughley, the star of the television show that was, oddly enough, called "The Hughleys," and one of the original "Kings of Comedy" and a pretty sharp political observer, too.

We're glad to have you with us. You are a young, African- American Hollywood type. I assume that makes you a Kerry guy?

D.L. HUGHLEY, COMEDIAN: Well, you know, it's funny. I'm not -- I'll tell you, I happen to be an African-American who's young, but I'm more -- I'm registered independent. I think that I've watched the debates, like the rest of the country has.

And I think that ultimately, either you're happy with the way the country's going or you're not. And I happen to not be as happy with the direction of the country.

I mean, you know, it's funny. Even the psyche of America, even when you watch us in the Olympics lose basketball. We don't feel good about ourselves right now, and I think that there's just something innately wrong with -- with the tone of -- of the country. And I think that it starts with our political apparatus.

BROWN: Do you think it's something -- I mean, you look at a country that is -- this is going to get serious quickly, I guess -- a country that is -- that is so profoundly divided. In some respects, I suppose it's hard to feel good when we just -- we seem to disagree. And we disagree so uncivilly sometimes, despite everything.

HUGHLEY: Everybody -- well, I think that we, you know -- when I was watching the debate today, I can see very clearly that the reason -- that George Bush's biggest constituency, consistent people, are people who believe that wrestling is real and that race car driving is a sport. So now I can see how we're divided.

BROWN: And Senator Kerry's constituency?

HUGHLEY: Well, you know what? Anybody who believes the Red Sox actually got a chance at winning the World Series is in a world of his own anyway. But then, I'm a Dodgers fan, so what do I know?

BROWN: There you go. And you're pretty much done.

Will you vote?

HUGHLEY: Absolutely. And I'll vote -- you know, ultimately, I think that -- I'm not pleased with the way this country has gone. I don't think -- I think that what I've noticed from these debates is a man -- what they call -- right-wing calls waffling, I think that is the man taking in the entire scope of what's going on.

I think that we need a diplomat. You know, in addition to being -- when you're the president of the United States, you're not only our chief warrior, but you're also our chief diplomat. And I think that Bush has proven that he can blow things up. I don't think he has quite achieved that level of deftness of making amends and trying to bring other people in to fight with us. So...

BROWN: So are you voting for John Kerry? Are you voting against the president? Where are you on that?

HUGHLEY: I'm very clearly voting for John Kerry. I am. I'm very -- you know, to me, I have a hard time voting for a dude that I'm pretty sure I could beat in a spelling bee.

So you know, it's funny because I was watching the last debates, and all of the people were going, "Well, you know, Bush, that's not his format. He's not a good public speaker."

This is a rich white dude who went to Yale. He didn't go to Compton College. If -- if a rich white dude who went to Yale doesn't have command of the English language, he's lazy. That's the deal. He didn't have to walk through a gang-infested neighborhood to do that, just walk past the servants and go to school.

So I think that -- that tells me about the -- the guy who I think he is.

BROWN: Here's what's unsettling for me. I am reasonably sure, because I believe the spell checker was the greatest invention of the last century, that he can beat me in a spelling bee.

HUGHLEY: No, I'm sure. This dude blow up everything he can't spell. How do you spell "Baghdad?" Boom! "That's how you spell it."

I mean, you know, I -- I joked because that's my gig. But I think, also, really I'm not pleased with the way I've seen the country go. I think that this election is -- as it is for all incumbent presidents -- a referendum on what we've seen.

You know, everybody likes to say what would John Kerry do? I can't know that. I don't have a crystal ball, as I'm sure many political pundits do. But I do know what George Bush has done.

And almost every promise he's made to us has -- has -- he constantly asks Kerry how can you trust a man who you don't know where he stands? Well, how can you trust a man who everything which he tells us turns out to be wrong?

So I think that there is the opposite side of the coin, also.

BROWN: And wrestling's not real, huh?

HUGHLEY: No. No. And you know what, it's funny because I used to think that up until a week ago.

BROWN: There you go.

HUGHLEY: Now I realize it's bad. It's not.

BROWN: Man, all these things are falling tonight.

Good to have you with us. Thank you, sir.

HUGHLEY: Thank you. Thank you very much.

BROWN: D.L. Hughley tonight from Los Angeles.

"Morning Papers" coming up, some interesting headlines there. We'll take a break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Okie-doke. Time to check "Morning Papers" from around the country, and it is morning here in the east. And if you're watching on the replay, well, it's still morning here in the east.

Can you believe they play me?

The -- don't answer. The "International Herald-Tribune," published by "The New York Times. Thought this was a very tough headline on the job report today: "A First Since Hoover in '32. Fewer are Working in the President's Term." It is a fact, but it is a tough headline, nevertheless.

Anyway, that is the "International Herald-Tribune" headline. They also put Ken Bigley on the front page, "A Briton in Iraq Just Beheaded, Family Says."

The "Times," the London paper, makes it pretty clear what its lead it: "Ken Bigley is Beheaded. Four Days of Messages with Kidnappers. My Tears Are My Words, Says Hostage's Widow."

There's a line in that story I think we haven't quite figured out yet, and we'll sort it out eventually, I suppose. We always do.

Lots -- obviously, most papers are leading with the debate tonight. "Charlotte Observer," "'Show Me' Debate." That would be the Show Me State. I guess you figured that out. "Folksy but Forceful." I didn't think it was all that folksy, but it certainly was forceful.

"The Washington Times." I suspect they wrote this headline pretty early and maybe a later edition, they'll headline it differently, but anyway, "Bush Hits 'Global Test'. Kerry Cites Report on Iraq's Lack of WMD's." That's the "Washington Times."

Anything else I like there? No.

The "Herald-Record," "Times-Herald-Record" of upstate -- up in Upstate New York, "The Gloves Come Off." OK, that's -- that's not a bad one.

But up here, man, they just did this because they knew I'd hold it up and break my heart, "Yanks' Brown" -- that wouldn't be me, OK. That's Kevin Brown, right. Kevin Brown "eats Twinkies." That would be the Twins. Anyway, Twins lost eight to four, so the official team of NEWSNIGHT is in trouble now. On the other hand, the "Boston Herald," the Boston Red Sox being the official team of NEWSNIGHT, "How Sweep it Is," as the Red Sox sweep Anaheim. And it will sell some papers in the Boston area tomorrow.

How are we doing on time in there? How are -- 30, OK. You know, I ask that question, they don't answer, I panicked briefly.

The "Philadelphia Inquirer," "A Contentious Rematch. New Jobs Fall Short of September Forecast." It's always interesting to see how candidates can spin that. Man, there is so much spin. I don't know why we talk to those spin-meisters after the debate.

"Cincinnati Inquirer," ends it. "Bush, Kerry Clash in Heated Rematch." That's exactly how I would headline that.

And weather in Chicago tomorrow is -- we actually don't know, because they didn't send us the paper. But whatever it is, you can't do anything about it anyway.

We'll take a break and wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, time to start planning your Monday morning. I know you're thinking it's Friday, but it's not. It's Saturday. So here's Bill Hemmer with a look at "AMERICAN MORNING."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL HEMMER, CO-HOST, "AMERICAN MORNING": Aaron, thanks.

Monday on "AMERICAN MORNING," new election laws, new voting machines and thousands more absentee ballots. Starting to look like election 2004 could be even more the legal nightmare than four years ago. Both sides are training a legion of lawyers, just in case.

We'll look at the most likely scenarios for an election breakdown with the lawyer who represented Al Gore four years ago in a case that determined the presidency.

Hope to see you Monday at 7 a.m. Eastern Time. Until then, have a great weekend.

Aaron, back to you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Thank you, Mr. Hemmer.

The mere idea that we're going to do a replay of four years ago in that recount business gives me a headache. Or maybe it was the Twins losing that's giving me a headache. Anyway, one or the other.

Have a wonderful weekend. We're all back here on Monday. And you will be, too, won't you? Hope you are. We'll see you then. Until then, have a great weekend and good night from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 9, 2004 - 00:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: Good evening again, everyone, as Friday becomes Saturday here in the East. Again, the debaters have done their thing. Again, the spin goes on. Why do we do that? Do they ever say anything that's surprising? If I had to guess, nothing much changed tonight. The Bush supporters, unlike the last time, will feel better. The Kerry people should feel fine after it all. It'll be a few more days before we know if the undecideds, assuming there are any undecideds left, have been moved at all or will hold on for one more week, one more debate, or maybe even longer.
We have lots of people to talk to. To take a look at what went on in St. Louis, we begin in St. Louis with "The Whip." Our senior White House correspondent, John King, starts us off. John, the headline from you tonight.

JOHN KING, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Aaron, the simplest headline is that the Republicans are happy. They say the president showed up tonight and was quite assertive and aggressive, as compared to his performance in the last debate. They think he did a much better job explaining his policy in Iraq and began to lay the groundwork for saying John Kerry is a tax-happy liberal -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, get back to you pretty quick tonight. Candy Crowley, working in the Show Me State, as well, covering the Kerry side of the debate. And let me guess. Your headline might have to do with how pleased they are.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You are absolutely right about that. They came into this night saying, What we really need to do is continue the momentum. They think the mission was accomplished -- Aaron.

BROWN: Thank you, Candy. We'll get more on that. Did debate No. 2 change the balance of the race at all? A headline from our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, who is also in St. Louis -- Jeff.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Well, Aaron, if it sounded like President Bush and Senator Kerry were at two different events tonight, there is a reason. They were pursuing two fundamentally different strategies. The president was talking to his base; Senator Kerry was talking to the middle. We'll find out in a couple of weeks whose strategy worked -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you. And how are those words -- there were many spoken in St. Louis tonight -- shaping the numbers, which, after all, in the end, is what matters? CNN's Bill Schneider in Washington tonight, taking a look at the first quick poll -- Bill.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: A clear winner like last time? No. But one candidate did score points with debate watchers.

BROWN: Bill, thank you. We'll get those numbers in a bit and talk to all of you coming up.

There is other news to report, and we'll get to that in the hour. Kidnappers in Iraq behead a British hostage after what appears to be a failed attempt to escape his captors. And Martha Stewart made millions as the homemaking guru. She now has a new home. We're actually required by federal law, I think, to report this. And at the end of the hour, a first look at tomorrow with "Morning Papers." All that and more in the hour ahead on this Saturday morning.

We begin in St. Louis with debate No. 2 at the end of a full week of news about Iraq, a week that saw a considerable tightening in the polls and a day that saw a less than stellar employment report, all of which helped frame the debate tonight. Here's the overview from CNN's Judy Woodruff.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The ground first trod was familiar: Iraq. George W. Bush kept a theme, accusing his challenger of blowing with the political winds.

GEORGE WALKER BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't see how you can lead this country in a time of war, in a time of uncertainty, if you change your mind because of politics.

WOODRUFF: And John Kerry charged the president rushed to war, fracturing international alliances in the process.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The world is more dangerous today. The world is more dangerous today because the president didn't make the right judgments.

WOODRUFF: Iraq consumed just over a third of the wide-ranging debate, as uncommitted voters in the town meeting posed questions on topics ranging from the environment to stem cell research. No surprise, the economy was a favorite focus, with Kerry noting the latest not-so-rosy jobs figures.

KERRY: Now, the president has presided over an economy where we've lost 1.6 million jobs. First president in 72 years to lose jobs.

WOODRUFF: As Bush painted his rival as a dyed-in-the-wool liberal, full of promises he wouldn't be able to pay for without raising taxes.

BUSH: Now, he just going to break all these wonderful promises he's told you about or he's going to raise taxes.

WOODRUFF: Prompting a pledge from Kerry on middle class taxes.

KERRY: Right into the camera, yes, I am no going to raise taxes...

WOODRUFF: The format gave both men a chance to showcase their personal skills, addressing questioners by name, roaming freely around the stage.

BUSH: That answer almost made me want to scowl.

WOODRUFF: But he didn't, at least not much. He smiled a lot and even winked once. The fighting words flew (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: That was Judy Woodruff with the overview. Standing by in St. Louis, CNN's John King, our senior White House correspondent. Candy Crowley has been covering the Kerry campaign. And they obviously were watching all that went on tonight.

John, let's start with you. Do you think that -- you go to all these "ask the president" events that the president does. Was there anything significantly different in what he said tonight from what he says day in and day out at these "town hall" meetings -- in quotes -- that he does?

KING: Not from a substance perspective, no. The president is not asked as many tougher questions or more direct questions when he's on those "ask the president" events. They tend to be, Mr. President, you're great. Can you explain this? They're supporters in the room for those events. So the questions were a little tougher tonight.

The Bush campaign came into this with one urgent mission, and that is to reenergize the Republican base, which became a bit dispirited after the president's performance in the first debate. They certainly believe they accomplished that. They also think that the president helped himself both on handling of Iraq and handling of the broader war on terrorism in his answers tonight. We will see over time whether the polls reflect that.

One interesting moment, Aaron. You say, Anything different? The president was asked specifically by one woman in the audience to name three mistakes he has made as president. The president doesn't like those questions. He doesn't like to admit mistakes. And he didn't name any specific mistakes, but he did concede that some things had gone wrong.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: In a war, there's a lot of -- there's a lot of tactical decisions that historians will look back and say, You shouldn't have done that. You shouldn't have made that decision. And I'll take responsibility for them. I'm human. But on the big questions about whether or not we should have gone into Afghanistan, the big question about whether we should have removed somebody in Iraq, I'll stand by those decisions because I think they're right. (END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Now, this is a turning point, of sorts, in that about half of this debate was dedicated to domestic issues. The entire third debate is to be dedicated to domestic issues. The polls will tell you that is Senator Kerry's ground, or more favorable ground, anyway. So the Bush campaign came in tonight with a clear strategy: begin to lay the predicate that Senator Kerry's promises cannot be paid for without raising taxes, begin to more and more discuss his 19-year record in the Senate, which the Bush campaign says has been all but absent in the campaign debating points so far. The president twice or three times used the term "You can run but you cannot hide from your record in the Senate." The Bush campaign, again, believes it began to lay the groundwork for making the case to the American people that his opponent is the most liberal senator in the United States Congress -- Mr. Bush made that point -- and that his promises simply do not add up and he would have to raise taxes. The president said, Aaron, that would hurt the economy. Consider that perhaps laying the foundation for what you will hear in debate No. 3.

BROWN: OK. Now, John, if you can -- I'm not sure what the issues are there, but if you can, stay with us. Let me bring Candy in and get her quick take on this, and then the three of us will chat for a minute or 30 seconds or whatever we have.

Candy, anything in the Kerry performance that was surprising either in style or substance?

CROWLEY: Neither, I think. They -- we certainly heard very much the same things that we've heard along the campaign trail. It should not be surprising that he is both articulate and eloquent in presenting his case. He certainly did that on both Iraq and on the various domestic issues that came up. So no, I didn't see anything at all that sounded -- certainly, about new policy or even that many new lines. But he was particularly strong on Iraq and used some of the things that happened this week, Aaron, that the Kerry campaign really believes promotes their case, among them the complaint from the top civilian that the president sent to Iraq that there were not enough troops on the ground to control all of the looting. The president responded and said, Look, I listened to the generals on the ground, and Kerry came right back and said, Not good enough.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: You rely on good military people to execute the military component of the strategy, but winning the peace is larger than just the military component. General Shinseki had the wisdom to say, You're going to need several hundred thousand troops to win the peace. The military's job is to win the war. The president's job is to win the peace. The president did not do what was necessary -- didn't bring in enough nations, didn't deliver the help, didn't close off the borders, didn't even guard the ammo dumps. And now our kids are being killed with ammos right out of that dump.

(END VIDEO CLIP) KING: Coming down the steps here to the spin room, out of the debate hall, Aaron, I ran into one Democratic operative, and I said, So now what? And he said, Tempe. So there we go.

BROWN: That's my question. John, now what? Does the Bush campaign, in the week coming up, shift its advertising towards domestic issues to sort of lay the groundwork? Does the stump speech change to lay the groundwork for Tempe, or do they just keep going the way they're going?

KING: Well, one of the things we will see now in the final three weeks is for the advertising strategy to change state by state. In states where manufacturing jobs have been lost, look for the president to do what he did today. A relatively modest job growth comes out. You would think the president would run from that a bit. Instead, the put out a new ad saying nearly two million jobs created in the past year, trying to spin that news to the most favorable light for them.

We will have to watch the advertising now much more closely state by state because in some states, the economy's doing well. In other states, it's not doing so well. In some states, leadership is the key issue. In others, it is economic. So we will get now a much more battleground-driven strategy after having for months now more of a national strategy.

In terms of heading into Tempe, they know it's domestic issues. This president has to make the case that, yes, he will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net job loss during his presidency. Mr. Bush will say recession, September 11, the shortest -- one of the shortest recessions in history because of his tax cuts. That will be the defining debate coming forward, one of the key reasons they wanted to spend some time tonight say, John Kerry has consistently voted for higher taxes, that will hurt the economy. It's Senator Kerry's ground, if you believe the polls, but the Bush White House believes it can turn the tables on him. That will be the key debating point, I think, in Tempe.

BROWN: John, Candy, thank you both. Save travels down the road, and we'll talk to you after the weekend. Thank you both.

CNN's Joe Johns was also watching, listening with a team of people in Washington, trying to compare what was said to the record, what were the facts of all of this. So what did you come up with, buddy?

JOE JOHNS, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: ... and exaggeration. More than once, President Bush said John Kerry is the most liberal member of the Senate, citing the "National Journal's" rankings of senators by their recorded votes. That's technically true for 2003, but it's far from the whole story. Kerry's lifetime rating put him as the 11th most liberal senator. Once he started running for president, his voting attendance fell off dramatically, throwing the "National Journal's" methodology off. The "Journal" tossed out all of his votes on social and foreign policy, because he hadn't cast enough votes on those issues, and based Kerry's ranking solely on his domestic policy votes, on 22 of 62 total votes cast. Without the full accounting, the "National Journal's" lifetime ranking of Kerry as the 11th most liberal senator is more fair than the label of most liberal.

For his part, Kerry appears to have overstated the number of lost jobs since Bush took office. Kerry said the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs since 2001. That is true, if all you're considering is the private sector. If you add the government jobs created during that period, the net job loss is 821,000, almost half the figure Kerry cited.

All in all, though, at first glance, the vast majority of the assertions each made tonight had at least some basis in fact, but of course, when it suited their ends, both candidates left out the other side of the story -- Aaron.

BROWN: Well, imagine that, Joe! Thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Imagine -- wow! That's like, what, another shocker out of the spin room tonight. Thank you, buddy. Joe Johns in Washington.

Jeff Greenfield is in St. Louis. Jeff, you said in "The Whip" tonight one was playing to his base, the other was playing to the middle. Lay this out.

GREENFIELD: All right. From the very beginning, the Bush campaign has said this is a mobilization campaign, not a campaign to win over undecideds nearly as much as it is to get their base out. In fact, for the last four years, strategist Karl Rove has been saying there are four million white evangelicals who stayed home in 2000. That's why we lost the popular vote. We've got to make sure they get out and not be outgunned on the ground.

The Kerry campaign's view is, We've got to get those people in the middle who are dissatisfied with the president, a little uncertain about John Kerry. We got to convince them that we're trustworthy enough with the job of the commander-in-chief.

So when you look at this debate -- and I'm now giving you my opinion, not a measurement. For me, one of the strongest points for the president, given this strategy, was when he was able to talk about partial-birth abortion and no tax dollars to pay for abortions because while abortion is a general issue, people tend to be pro-choice, the great majority of Americans are against partial-birth abortion and uneasy about tax financing. And his base, in particular, feels strongly about that.

By contrast, I think Senator Kerry's strongest moments came on things like embryonic stem cell research, where moderates and centrists kind of agree with him, even if they're uneasy about abortion. Importation of drugs from Canada -- that's a very big issue among people who can't afford the price of prescription drugs. And the general health care debate, which tends to go for Democrats and tends to persuade people who are with Bush on social issues, but not entirely, and kind of with the Democrats on economic concerns.

That's what I meant when I said that these two candidates -- they may have been talking to the same audience in that hall here in St. Louis, but out there among the tens of millions watching, Aaron, they were talking to two different constituencies, I believe.

BROWN: Much was made, I think fairly, in fact, about sort of the president's petulance or peevishness last week. He was less so. But just watching the body language of these two guys, the president really does move like a Texas gunslinger, a little hunched over when he moves in. Kerry glides. What was your -- what's your take on the style points tonight?

GREENFIELD: Yes, it was very interesting. This is like a judge of the, what, the gymnastics, I guess. On one of the conservative weblogs that I was looking at, there was an argument going on about whether the president was too strident or whether this was the president they wanted to see. And once again, if you're remembering that the president, in my view, is appealing to his base, they wanted to see this tough, Gary Cooper, "High Noon," a little bit of a gunslinger but a tough guy willing to show up and contest Kerry face to face.

Kerry was much more the kind of guy who learned how to debate in school. He would take the president's arguments and turn them. He would listen to one answer and remind people of what another questioner asked. On at least two occasions, he reminded the president of what he said in the same hall four years ago.

BROWN: Yes.

GREENFIELD: That's much more a tactical kind of debate, as opposed to the kind of, Let's go out and get tough, that the president was doing. Two different -- two definitely strategies here, Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff, thank you for breaking them down for us. Jeff Greenfield in St. Louis.

Now the early polling -- and we stress "early." Bill Schneider in Washington. Bill, first the sort of basic, "Who won," if the poll can tell us that.

SCHNEIDER: Well, in the last debate, that was clear -- Kerry 53, Bush 37, a 16-point margin for John Kerry. But this time, it wasn't quite so clear. The results showed among debate viewers, Kerry 47, Bush 45, just a 2-point lead. But keep this in mind. Among debate watchers, Republicans outnumbered Democrats. And before the debate, they favored Bush over Kerry by 4 points. So for those debate watchers to say, as we see here, that Kerry won by 2 points means Kerry made some progress.

BROWN: And one more question, then I -- well, actually, I have two. But let me get you on the issues first. Did we break this down on Iraq and the economy and the like?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, we did. We asked, "Which candidate can better handle the economy?" And the result was a tie, 49 to 49. But before the debate, these same people favored Bush on the economy by 6 points. So there's progress for Kerry. On Iraq, it was a different story. Before the debate, viewers thought Kerry would do -- Kerry would do a better job on Iraq. After watching the debate, they gave Bush the edge on Iraq, as you see here, 53 to 46. The reason is they thought, as Jeff just said, Bush came across as a tougher guy who could handle international issues better.

So overall, Kerry did make progress because in this debate, the agenda shifted to domestic issues, particularly the economy. And as it happens, as we know, the next debate will be entirely on domestic issues.

BROWN: All right, we've got one minute for this. If you could remember, coming out of the last debate, the first poll gives the win to John Kerry. How much over the course of the next 72 hours did the number change? And I think the question here is, to what degree are people influenced by the poll itself?

SCHNEIDER: Very good question. These polls were immediate polls, to give people a chance to express their opinion having just watched the debate. In the next couple of days, people are going to talk to their friends and neighbors. They're going to hear the analysis. They're going to read the newspapers. And they can be influenced by the spin and by the analysis.

What happened in the last debate was very interesting. Immediately after the debate, as we just reported, by a 16-point margin, people thought that Kerry had won the debate. But by the end of the weekend after that debate, people thought Kerry had won by a 38-point margin. More than 60 percent said Kerry had won. That became the reality. So the spin matters. The analysis matters because in the next couple of days, people are going to be forming very significant impressions that they're not really sure of yet.

BROWN: Every now and then, I nail a question. Thank you.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: Bill Schneider in Washington tonight.

We'll take a break. Coming up, the "Brown Table" joins us. Joe Klein from "Time" magazine is here. Much more ahead. This is NEWSNIGHT from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Fifteen or so states still considered in play, but these are the money states, more or less: Florida, which, of course, you know, that the president won, if barely, and some will argue that. In Ohio -- Republicans must win Ohio. The president won there. It is very close. The last poll I saw in Ohio was within the margin. Saw two polls out of Pennsylvania yesterday. One had Kerry up 7, the other had Kerry up 2. So the latter within the margin. All of which proves again the country is divided. In those three states, 68 electoral votes in all.

The "Brown Table" is with us, split between two cities -- three folks, two cities. In St. Louis tonight, "The Wall Street Journal's" John Harwood. In Washington, "The Boston Globe's" Nina Easton and Terry Neal of the Washingtonpost.com. We're glad to see all of you.

John, since you're in St. Louis, you start. Anything significantly change tonight? The dynamic of this race change tonight?

JOHN HARWOOD, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": I don't think so. You had the president reassuring Republicans who were quite nervous going into this debate. They thought that if he had repeat of last week, you might really see some substantial erosion in his support. They are feeling a lot better. He hit a lot of the notes important to his Republican base. Conservatives are likely to be energized.

From John Kerry's point of view, he had 90 minutes before a very large audience to appear steady and presidential and strong and to try to rebut some of those ideological arguments that the president was making.

So I think both sides got what they wanted. Different views of the electorate. John Kerry thinks there's more of a center out there to appeal to. George W. Bush thinks getting his base mobilized is the name of the game.

BROWN: Did anyone think -- Terry, Nina -- that the president, particularly in the first 30 minutes, was a bit overcaffeinated? I mean, he really came out perhaps a little more aggressively than is comfortable on television. Sometimes things in the hall feel one way but on TV feel another. Nina?

NINA EASTON, "BOSTON GLOBE": I thought he was a bit defensive, you're right, in that first half. And it was interesting, too. You talked about body language earlier. It was kind of interesting how Kerry almost invaded President Bush's space, went right up to him, talked to him, was very much the challenger. And Bush was a little bit, like, you know, he was -- Kerry was a bit of a bug on his shoulder, and he completely ignored him. I thought that body language was interesting.

But I also thought Bush, while he was a bit defensive at the beginning, really, interestingly, found his footing on domestic issues. And Kerry lost his footing just a bit. And so it'll be very interesting to see next week's debate, when it does turn to just to domestic issues.

BROWN: Terry, do you agree with that, the president seemed stronger on domestic stuff than you might have thought?

TERRY NEAL, WASHINGTONPOST.COM: I actually thought that he did fairly well on both. I thought he got -- in general, got stronger through the debate. I think what he did better this time than he did last time is that he didn't resort so quickly and easily to the platitudes, the -- you know, We're about freedom, and things like that. I mean, he debated the issues, and I thought that he had some good -- I thought he was much more prepared. And he had a lot of energy. I thought Kerry's problem, on the other hand, was that he -- I think Kerry did a pretty good job, but I don't think that he was -- I think he could have been more aggressive than he was, and he certainly could have used these two reports that came out this week, one on the economy and one on Iraq, to -- to a much better extent than he did.

BROWN: John, how did you think -- in what respects, other than the president seemed a little less peevish tonight -- the president was different from a week ago?

HARWOOD: Well, I think, to Nina's point about him finding his footing on domestic issues -- remember, this is a president who came into office expecting to have a domestic presidency. The 9/11 changed all that. He was not very good on foreign policy tonight. The overcaffeinated style you mentioned at the beginning -- he was quite agitated at the beginning. He looked defensive. He looked like somebody who was sort of trying to push the rock uphill, convincing people why -- why he really should have gone to war against Iraq, even though there were no weapons of mass destruction.

But when he got to domestic issues, some of those ideological points -- tax cuts, a certain -- tort reform, judicial reform, that sort of thing -- he was getting into areas where he's more comfortable with the substance and has been for a long period of time.

BROWN: All right, we've got about 90 seconds. I want to get all of you in. What has to happen in Tempe, Nina?

EASTON: Well, I think, obviously, both -- both candidates have to continue to perform strongly. Domestic issues -- it's so interesting in this election that national security issues are front and center. And this will be -- even in this debate, where it was a town hall forum, national security really dominated the first part of the debate. And that's not going to be the case next week.

BROWN: Terry, what does John Kerry have to do in Tempe?

NEAL: Well, I think John Kerry has to go -- I think John Kerry has been listening to his consultants a lot. He's been reading right out of the consultants' handbook, which says, you know, likability is very important in these debates. I think, in some ways, he's been almost too nice. I think that he's got to get a little bit more aggressive. I think that he's got to make his -- his attacks a little bit sharper. He's got to be a little bit more clear and really go after the president and -- just a little bit more, without being disrespectful. And if he can do that and can win next week's debate, I think he'll be in a pretty good position (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

BROWN: Did the -- just very quickly, Terry. Did the domestic -- does the domestic side of the contest give him the forum to be a more aggressive player?

NEAL: Well, you would think that it does. But I mean, tonight, the president was pretty good in making his case about tax cuts and that sort of thing. He -- it can be, but he's got to take charge and make it -- put -- make it go to his advantage. It's not just going to fall in his lap.

BROWN: And John, last word from you. How has Tempe got to be different? Either -- pick one, pick the other or just the overview, if you want. What do they have to accomplish?

HARWOOD: Well, I suspect it's not going to be all that different. I suspect it's going to come out to be a draw. Both men are going to be encouraged by their performance tonight. I think from John Kerry's point of view -- I disagree with Terry. I think that what John Kerry needs to do -- there are a lot of people out there that his campaign believes are uncomfortable with Bush, aren't quite ready to go with Kerry. I think he's got to continue to make himself comfortable for those people and an acceptable alternative. I'm not sure the attacking Bush is really what he needs to do. The case against Bush has been made for months now, and I think that John Kerry's got a little bit of a different plan.

BROWN: John, Terry, Nina, have good weekends. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. Thank you very much for your work tonight.

I don't know why I just thought of this, but just imagine the pressure of the two candidates, not that being the president doesn't have pressure, but the pressure of these debates on these two men, and everybody watching what they do.

Joe Klein is with us. We'll take a break first, then talk with Joe. This is NEWSNIGHT from New York.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: "TIME" magazine's Joe Klein is with us. Pretty good on this political stuff. He'd better be. He makes a living at it.

JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: I don't know. It's getting pretty late tonight, Aaron.

BROWN: Good to have you with us. Let's try to cover three things, if we can.

I thought maybe Senator Kerry created a problem for himself in the way he answered a question about taxes.

KLEIN: Yes. I think you saw one of those classic flip-flops that drive the Bush people crazy and a lot of Republicans crazy.

Kerry criticized Bush at one point for cutting taxes during a war. And then within a minute, maybe within the same answer -- I'd have to look at the transcript -- he promised a middle class tax cut.

Now granted, his middle class tax cut were, you know, targeted taxes on child care credits and college tuition tax credits. That's still a tax cut. And if we are in a crisis, if we're in a war, it was striking to me, once again, that neither of these guys are willing to call for any sort of sacrifice at all.

BROWN: Well, a lot of this can get fleshed out next week, but I think somehow the senator's got to explain, in a way that, frankly, jokers like me can understand where the money is coming from for what he wants to do. But we'll let them do that in Tempe.

Did the president create any problems for himself today?

KLEIN: Well, there is that style problem, you know? You mentioned it before. I think this is, you know, the cliche of the year is if you turn off the sound, the one who looks more comfortable and more commanding wins the debate. That was John Kerry today.

BROWN: Yes.

KLEIN: I mean, you know, which one of these guys you want to have in your living room for the next four years. Everybody thought it would be hands down Bush, but he seemed kind of tense and angry and -- and Kerry seemed elegant and just on.

BROWN: Just to be clear on what I observed here, because I'm not -- what I observed was just this...

KLEIN: What did you observe?

BROWN: ... fascinating difference in their styles. This kind of -- you know, anybody who doesn't think of the president as a Texan, watch him walk. He kind of hunches over his shoulders, and he does -- he has a sort of gunslinger quality. That's -- people may find that perfectly attractive.

Nobody could have found his peevish -- well, I'm not saying nobody, but essentially no one could find his peevishness last week attractive. It just wasn't.

KLEIN: Well, the walk, I think it was Mark Leibovich (ph) in the "Washington Post" said he walks like he's waiting for his Right Guard to dry.

But you know, the interesting thing is, he's supposed to be the laid back, regular guy...

BROWN: Yes.

KLEIN: ... and he seems far more intense than Kerry does.

BROWN: But just walking him all week on the campaign, he has been much more aggressive, much more, to use the idiomatic phrase, this is not the nice guy, the uniter not the divider or four years ago.

KLEIN: Well, he's worried. I mean, you know, to -- to add onto the point that Nina made, Nina Eastman made in the last section, he was much better on domestic policy than he was on the foreign policy, because his whole foreign policy argument fell apart this week. All of the rationales for Iraq fell apart.

On domestic policy, at least he can make the low tax argument. He can make the moral arguments on social issues. And -- and the restrained, you know, a restrained government on health care.

BROWN: Let's assume some of this -- and I suspect it was going to come up again, literally will come up again. Stem cell will come up again. Partial birth abortion will come up again. All those things could come up again, taxes, all the rest.

Who needs to work a better answer on any one or two of those? Here, I'll do it differently.

KLEIN: OK.

BROWN: I thought Kerry fumbled tort reform tonight.

KLEIN: Yes. That was another -- that was another moment where Bush could accuse him of being a flip-flopper, where he said, "Well, John Edwards and I are in favor of tort reform and doing something -- doing something about punitive damages."

BROWN: Well, they do -- I mean, they are.

KLEIN: And they have a plan.

BROWN: He articulated it very well.

KLEIN: They have a plan which is a kind of professional peer review plan...

BROWN: Right.

KLEIN: ... that would lower, and it's too complicated to explain in a debate and sure here. But I think that those kind of answers, where -- where Kerry smudges just a little bit -- abortion was another -- can get him into trouble.

BROWN: Good to see you. Have a good weekend. I hope we'll talk next...

KLEIN: Pleased to be here.

BROWN: Are you going to be here next weekend or there next weekend?

KLEIN: I'm going to -- I'm going to be out there.

BROWN: Of course you are. Good weather out in Tempe. Thank you.

Still ahead on the program, bad news out of Iraq. We'll take a look at that, coming up, unfortunately.

And headlines around the world. "Morning Papers" will come your way on this early Saturday morning in New York.

This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: In Iraq today, the news was grim: another beheading, another hostage murdered. This time it was the British contractor, Kenneth Bigley.

Here's CNN's Brent Sadler.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Kenneth Bigley's life dangled on a thread for 22 agonizing days, ending it seems, after a dramatic escape attempt that failed, according to U.S. and Western diplomatic sources.

Those officials believe some of his captors may also have been killed as a punishment.

In the weeks before his death, Bigley was forced to make heartrending appeals to British Prime Minister Tony Blair to save his life.

KENNETH BIGLEY, BEHEADED IN IRAQ: And Tony Blair, I'm begging you for my life.

SADLER: Bigley was one of three hostages held by militants loyal to suspected al Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The three captives had worked together and got kidnapped together: Americans Eugene Armstrong, Jack Hensley and the 62-year-old Briton.

BIGLEY: My name is Kenneth John Bigley.

SADLER: During his incarceration, he was ruthlessly manipulated to squeeze political concessions from the British government. The price of freedom, a demand coalition forces release Iraqi women from prison.

Within a week of their abduction, the two Americans were killed, decapitated on video. Eugene Armstrong was beheaded by al-Zarqawi himself, claims the CIA, based on voice analysis.

Hensley was killed the next day.

But in a bizarre twist of tactics, the kidnappers spared Bigley's life for another 17 days.

(on camera) Efforts to release Ken Bigley were mobilized in Britain and the Middle East. But even as those efforts gained momentum, U.S.-led military pressure on al-Zarqawi's stronghold in Fallujah intensified.

(voice-over) With repeated airstrikes, targeting his suspected hideouts and mounting loss of life, according to Iraqi doctors in Fallujah. News of Bigley's death followed another deadly attack on the rebel stronghold.

And now it's emerged that just four days before he died, the British government exchanged secret messages with the kidnap group. JACK STRAW, BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY: To kidnap a man, to subject him and his family to the agony of prolonged uncertainty, and then to murder him and in this way, is inhuman.

SADLER: It could be, says Ken Bigley's family, that the fate of all three hostages was sealed from day one. But nobody will ever know.

Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: That was Iraq today.

Saturday morning now in Afghanistan, and voters are going to the polls in the first democratic election, or at least relatively democratic election. People are voting. That is something to say, men and women.

Current president Hamid Karzai, seen as the favorite. Authorities hope millions will vote. Ten million registered, despite the violence from the Taliban, some warlords and their allies.

Here are some other stories that made news today.

The House of Representatives worked late on Friday, trying to finish up before going home to campaign. As part of this last minute rush, they passed a broad intelligence reform bill in response to recommendations from the 9/11 Commission.

However, many doubted the negotiators will be able to bridge the differences with the Senate bill that passed on Wednesday. They are quite different.

School officials across the nation got a bit of good news about those computer disks found in Iraq containing photographs and evacuation plans of eight American schools. Government officials say now there -- there was no proven link to terrorism. The information might have been gathered to help plan Iraqi schools. Pretty benign, that.

And finally, a hoard of photographers and cameras waited in vain outside the Alderson Federal Prison Camp -- Camp Cupcake, they call it, West Virginia -- only to find out Martha Stewart had slipped past them and already started her five-month sentence for lying to federal investigators.

We hope that she's watching the program faithfully in her dorm room tonight.

Ahead on NEWSNIGHT, debate insight from the actor and the comedian E. L. Hughley. We'll take a break first. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Once in awhile -- actually, like, every four years after the debates, we enjoy hearing a voice from outside the world of journalists and other political junkies. We're joined tonight from Los Angeles by the actor and comedian D. L. Hughley, the star of the television show that was, oddly enough, called "The Hughleys," and one of the original "Kings of Comedy" and a pretty sharp political observer, too.

We're glad to have you with us. You are a young, African- American Hollywood type. I assume that makes you a Kerry guy?

D.L. HUGHLEY, COMEDIAN: Well, you know, it's funny. I'm not -- I'll tell you, I happen to be an African-American who's young, but I'm more -- I'm registered independent. I think that I've watched the debates, like the rest of the country has.

And I think that ultimately, either you're happy with the way the country's going or you're not. And I happen to not be as happy with the direction of the country.

I mean, you know, it's funny. Even the psyche of America, even when you watch us in the Olympics lose basketball. We don't feel good about ourselves right now, and I think that there's just something innately wrong with -- with the tone of -- of the country. And I think that it starts with our political apparatus.

BROWN: Do you think it's something -- I mean, you look at a country that is -- this is going to get serious quickly, I guess -- a country that is -- that is so profoundly divided. In some respects, I suppose it's hard to feel good when we just -- we seem to disagree. And we disagree so uncivilly sometimes, despite everything.

HUGHLEY: Everybody -- well, I think that we, you know -- when I was watching the debate today, I can see very clearly that the reason -- that George Bush's biggest constituency, consistent people, are people who believe that wrestling is real and that race car driving is a sport. So now I can see how we're divided.

BROWN: And Senator Kerry's constituency?

HUGHLEY: Well, you know what? Anybody who believes the Red Sox actually got a chance at winning the World Series is in a world of his own anyway. But then, I'm a Dodgers fan, so what do I know?

BROWN: There you go. And you're pretty much done.

Will you vote?

HUGHLEY: Absolutely. And I'll vote -- you know, ultimately, I think that -- I'm not pleased with the way this country has gone. I don't think -- I think that what I've noticed from these debates is a man -- what they call -- right-wing calls waffling, I think that is the man taking in the entire scope of what's going on.

I think that we need a diplomat. You know, in addition to being -- when you're the president of the United States, you're not only our chief warrior, but you're also our chief diplomat. And I think that Bush has proven that he can blow things up. I don't think he has quite achieved that level of deftness of making amends and trying to bring other people in to fight with us. So...

BROWN: So are you voting for John Kerry? Are you voting against the president? Where are you on that?

HUGHLEY: I'm very clearly voting for John Kerry. I am. I'm very -- you know, to me, I have a hard time voting for a dude that I'm pretty sure I could beat in a spelling bee.

So you know, it's funny because I was watching the last debates, and all of the people were going, "Well, you know, Bush, that's not his format. He's not a good public speaker."

This is a rich white dude who went to Yale. He didn't go to Compton College. If -- if a rich white dude who went to Yale doesn't have command of the English language, he's lazy. That's the deal. He didn't have to walk through a gang-infested neighborhood to do that, just walk past the servants and go to school.

So I think that -- that tells me about the -- the guy who I think he is.

BROWN: Here's what's unsettling for me. I am reasonably sure, because I believe the spell checker was the greatest invention of the last century, that he can beat me in a spelling bee.

HUGHLEY: No, I'm sure. This dude blow up everything he can't spell. How do you spell "Baghdad?" Boom! "That's how you spell it."

I mean, you know, I -- I joked because that's my gig. But I think, also, really I'm not pleased with the way I've seen the country go. I think that this election is -- as it is for all incumbent presidents -- a referendum on what we've seen.

You know, everybody likes to say what would John Kerry do? I can't know that. I don't have a crystal ball, as I'm sure many political pundits do. But I do know what George Bush has done.

And almost every promise he's made to us has -- has -- he constantly asks Kerry how can you trust a man who you don't know where he stands? Well, how can you trust a man who everything which he tells us turns out to be wrong?

So I think that there is the opposite side of the coin, also.

BROWN: And wrestling's not real, huh?

HUGHLEY: No. No. And you know what, it's funny because I used to think that up until a week ago.

BROWN: There you go.

HUGHLEY: Now I realize it's bad. It's not.

BROWN: Man, all these things are falling tonight.

Good to have you with us. Thank you, sir.

HUGHLEY: Thank you. Thank you very much.

BROWN: D.L. Hughley tonight from Los Angeles.

"Morning Papers" coming up, some interesting headlines there. We'll take a break first.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Okie-doke. Time to check "Morning Papers" from around the country, and it is morning here in the east. And if you're watching on the replay, well, it's still morning here in the east.

Can you believe they play me?

The -- don't answer. The "International Herald-Tribune," published by "The New York Times. Thought this was a very tough headline on the job report today: "A First Since Hoover in '32. Fewer are Working in the President's Term." It is a fact, but it is a tough headline, nevertheless.

Anyway, that is the "International Herald-Tribune" headline. They also put Ken Bigley on the front page, "A Briton in Iraq Just Beheaded, Family Says."

The "Times," the London paper, makes it pretty clear what its lead it: "Ken Bigley is Beheaded. Four Days of Messages with Kidnappers. My Tears Are My Words, Says Hostage's Widow."

There's a line in that story I think we haven't quite figured out yet, and we'll sort it out eventually, I suppose. We always do.

Lots -- obviously, most papers are leading with the debate tonight. "Charlotte Observer," "'Show Me' Debate." That would be the Show Me State. I guess you figured that out. "Folksy but Forceful." I didn't think it was all that folksy, but it certainly was forceful.

"The Washington Times." I suspect they wrote this headline pretty early and maybe a later edition, they'll headline it differently, but anyway, "Bush Hits 'Global Test'. Kerry Cites Report on Iraq's Lack of WMD's." That's the "Washington Times."

Anything else I like there? No.

The "Herald-Record," "Times-Herald-Record" of upstate -- up in Upstate New York, "The Gloves Come Off." OK, that's -- that's not a bad one.

But up here, man, they just did this because they knew I'd hold it up and break my heart, "Yanks' Brown" -- that wouldn't be me, OK. That's Kevin Brown, right. Kevin Brown "eats Twinkies." That would be the Twins. Anyway, Twins lost eight to four, so the official team of NEWSNIGHT is in trouble now. On the other hand, the "Boston Herald," the Boston Red Sox being the official team of NEWSNIGHT, "How Sweep it Is," as the Red Sox sweep Anaheim. And it will sell some papers in the Boston area tomorrow.

How are we doing on time in there? How are -- 30, OK. You know, I ask that question, they don't answer, I panicked briefly.

The "Philadelphia Inquirer," "A Contentious Rematch. New Jobs Fall Short of September Forecast." It's always interesting to see how candidates can spin that. Man, there is so much spin. I don't know why we talk to those spin-meisters after the debate.

"Cincinnati Inquirer," ends it. "Bush, Kerry Clash in Heated Rematch." That's exactly how I would headline that.

And weather in Chicago tomorrow is -- we actually don't know, because they didn't send us the paper. But whatever it is, you can't do anything about it anyway.

We'll take a break and wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, time to start planning your Monday morning. I know you're thinking it's Friday, but it's not. It's Saturday. So here's Bill Hemmer with a look at "AMERICAN MORNING."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL HEMMER, CO-HOST, "AMERICAN MORNING": Aaron, thanks.

Monday on "AMERICAN MORNING," new election laws, new voting machines and thousands more absentee ballots. Starting to look like election 2004 could be even more the legal nightmare than four years ago. Both sides are training a legion of lawyers, just in case.

We'll look at the most likely scenarios for an election breakdown with the lawyer who represented Al Gore four years ago in a case that determined the presidency.

Hope to see you Monday at 7 a.m. Eastern Time. Until then, have a great weekend.

Aaron, back to you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Thank you, Mr. Hemmer.

The mere idea that we're going to do a replay of four years ago in that recount business gives me a headache. Or maybe it was the Twins losing that's giving me a headache. Anyway, one or the other.

Have a wonderful weekend. We're all back here on Monday. And you will be, too, won't you? Hope you are. We'll see you then. Until then, have a great weekend and good night from all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

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