Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

Bush, Kerry Campaign in Florida; Soldier's Eye View of War in Iraq

Aired October 18, 2004 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
It was yesterday I think the governor of Florida said he didn't think there would be voting problems in his state this time around. Wrong, there are already. Problems showed up today in early voting precincts and we'll have that story coming up.

Also, in Hamilton County, Ohio, the Cincinnati area, a small problem with some, we don't know how many yet, but some absentee ballots. John Kerry's name isn't on them. You'd think that was the sort of thing they'd check before the ballots were sent out. The head of the election board said today in an understatement "It's a screw- up," and added quite correctly, "This just feeds the paranoia that's out there."

Around here we've been trying to understand why it is that Americans don't vote. About half of the registered voters in the country don't. Maybe problems like Florida experience today, not big but noteworthy, perhaps the problems in Ohio, how big we really don't know are part of the reason.

If you don't have confidence in the system, you don't participate in the system. In a landslide perhaps it doesn't matter much, a bad machine here, a small mistake there but in this election at this time it matters a lot. It's going to be a long election night at this rate.

The whip begins tonight in Florida. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King traveling with the president, John a headline on the campaign.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the president today said his Democratic opponent has a September the 10th attitude that would put this country at risk. Get ready for a very bruising final two weeks -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, thank you.

St. Petersburg to Orlando, CNN's Candy Crowley with the Kerry campaign in Florida as well tonight, Candy a headline.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the Kerry campaign wanted to turn the corner for these last two weeks and talk about issues close to home. Then the president gave a speech on terrorism. There was a change of plans. BROWN: Candy, thank you.

Next to yet another echo from the 2000 election all to do with the Electoral College and the fun it may yet cause again, yes fun, Jeff Greenfield on that so Jeff a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Aaron, sift through the avalanche of poll numbers and what seemed the merest possibility in April now seems just a little more plausible that we have the 2000 result once again, a split decision, but this time in reverse -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff.

Finally to Iraq and a soldier's eye view of war and politics, CNN's Jane Arraf on the video phone, Jane a headline from you.

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Aaron, with all the debate over the war in Iraq we talked to people who are rarely asked, American soldiers here on the ground, about how they feel about being here.

BROWN: Jane, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up on the program tonight they've got issues and, as it turns out so do we. We'll take a look at how those issues are being seen by the candidates tonight, the social issues from abortion to stem cell research.

And the more things change the more they stay the same it seems, politics from the last 150 years or so in still photos.

And morning papers as well at the end of the hour, all that and more in the hour ahead.

We begin tonight with the campaign and a new batch of polls that show the president pulling slightly ahead, enjoying about a five-point edge. On the other hand, pollster John Zogby who was spot on in 2000 puts the race even.

Polls are complicated beasts and when you move from the registered voter to the likely voter even more so but there are signs the president has moved ahead at least in the raw national vote. In any case it's close enough still that neither Senator Kerry nor the president taking much for granted, not in where they go or what they say.

Today it was defense, two takes, two reports beginning with the president and our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): The location was a bit of a surprise, the focus of the president's speech anything but. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When one Senator among 100 holds a policy of weakness it doesn't make a lot of difference but the presidency is an office of great responsibility and consequence.

KING: The scathing attack foreshadowed a bruising final two weeks. Mr. Bush said Senator Kerry repeatedly tried to slash intelligence funding, voted against major weapons systems, shifted positions on the Iraq War and has voiced reservations about using military power against terrorist groups and rogue regimes.

BUSH: Senator Kerry's approach would permit a response only after America is hit. This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country.

KING: Democrats complained of distortions and accused the president of preying on fear.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's exploiting a national tragedy for personal gain and it's the lowest kind of politics.

KING: Senator Kerry prefers to close on health care and other pocketbook issues, so Mr. Bush's strategy is to paint his opponent as a tax and spend liberal on the home front and on too weak for the times when it comes to national security.

ANNOUNCER: John Kerry and his liberal allies are they a risk we can afford to take today?

KING: The president enters the final two weeks with a slight edge in the polls and a giant advantage, 22 points, when voters are asked which candidate can better handle the war on terror. New Jersey hasn't voted Republican for president since 1988.

BUSH: Oh, I know it might surprise some to see a Republican presidential candidate in New Jersey in late October.

KING: But some state polls show a dead heat and by picking Marlton (ph), Mr. Bush also guaranteed coverage in eastern Pennsylvania, one of the battlegrounds where Mr. Bush hopes security issues hold sway in the end.

(on camera): Voicing confidence the Bush campaign says the president has regained the momentum heading into the final two weeks but many senior Republicans are still worried, noting Mr. Bush rarely cracks 50 percent of the national polls and has a job approval rating one close campaign adviser called "in the nervous zone for an incumbent."

John King, CNN, St. Petersburg, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CROWLEY (voice-over): (UNINTELLIGIBLE) with the Kerry campaign in Orlando. The man who once led ground operations in Iraq told the Pentagon last December supplies were so short it threatened the Army's ability to fight. The Pentagon says the shortages were addressed but there is political punch left.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Listen to the troops and give the troops the equipment that they need. Stand up for the troops. Fight for the troops. Lead the troops.

CROWLEY: Infuriated by what it calls Kerry's riff, the Bush campaign noted that last October military commanders went to Capitol Hill to lobby for $87 billion to fund the war and Kerry voted no. Puddle jumping from West Palm to Tampa to Orlando, Kerry was in Florida touching base literally, first with angry Democrats.

KERRY: And you have my pledge. You go to the polls and we'll make sure that this time every vote counts.

CROWLEY: And to Jewish supporters, four percent of Florida's 2000 vote, Kerry stressed is 100 percent support for the cause of Israel.

KERRY: I climbed to the top of Masada and I've stood on the top of Masada and yelled out as the Air Force recruits and others used to from the side of that cliff the words (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

CROWLEY: For seniors, 27 percent of Florida's vote, Kerry talked up his prescription drug plan and talked down the president's lack of plans for the flu shot shortage.

KERRY: If Halliburton made flu shots, you'd have more flu shots here than there are oranges in the state of Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And, Candy and John are with us now.

Candy, let's start with you. Do you detect within the campaign some nervousness about the shift of polls in the last four or five days?

CROWLEY: They say not but obviously, you know, when you get this close these polls begin to mean something. You would much rather be George Bush at this point; however, they say what most people say when they're behind a little in the polls. We question the methodology of some of these polls.

They say that it's not what their polls are showing. They believe if they can push back really hard on the president's terrorism speech today and they promise they will do that in a single speech in Iowa as well as in some other speeches they believe that they can, you know, right the ship.

And they say their internal numbers still show that the president is below that magic number of 50 and that that is not good for any incumbent, so they are looking at the numbers and seeing different ones than the overall horse race.

BROWN: John, looking at the president's day today and looking at that enormous gap between how voters seem to perceive the president and seem to perceive the Senator on terror in particular is this the theme for the next week and a half?

KING: It will be the overriding theme. They know they need to talk about health care. They need to talk about the economy, especially in the big industrial states Pennsylvania, Ohio, but they want to make the threshold issue security. They want to say before you think about anything else in this election who should be the commander-in-chief?

If the Bush campaign can succeed at that, they think they win the election but, Aaron they're looking at the very same numbers. The president's approval rating is in a dangerous spot for an incumbent.

History says undecided voters don't tend to break for an incumbent late in the campaign. They will emphasize the president's strengths but they also know they have some weaknesses to deal with too.

BROWN: When they say they need to talk about the economy and they need to talk about health care, John, are they going to talk about the president's plans for or are they going to talk about the Senator's liberalism, if you will?

KING: A little bit of both. When it comes to health care more of the Senator's liberalism from the Bush campaign prospective, Senator Kerry obviously disagrees. When it comes to the economy they do think they have a more positive story to tell in the sense that this is one of the big debating points in the campaign.

But the Bush campaign would make the case it can go into Ohio. It can go into Pennsylvania and say the tax cuts made it a much more shallow recession and that, yes, there is frustration. Yes, there is a wait, if you will, for the jobs to come back but that things are beginning on the upswing.

So they think they have a more positive message on the economy. On health care they realize the Democrats have a huge advantage on that one. They will tend to be more on the attack. Even as the president makes the case for his plan the attacks will come in a much louder volume.

BROWN: And, Candy, the last word here just sitting here watching over the last week or so it seems the Kerry campaign is constantly reacting. They're not able to set the agenda which, if I were the candidate, I'd find a bit uncomfortable.

CROWLEY: It's interesting. I brought that up today when they were talking about, you know, as a leader the voters are comfortable that we're going to go back out and we're going to show them that leadership again. And I said, "Well, isn't this reacting to the president's speech?" "No, no, no. We consider ourselves much more on the offense than the defense." So, you know, it's a word. They prefer to see themselves on offense as on defense but, again, they believe they made huge headway in the debates and I think the polls at some level bear them out. What they need to do is bring this thing home and they believe that by showing people, look, I can be a commander-in-chief.

We've heard a lot about his Vietnam experience today for the first time in some time. So, they're back to that again a little bit so they just feel that they just need to kind of push this over the edge a little and allow people to see John Kerry as president.

BROWN: Candy, John thank you both. We'll talk tomorrow. Thank you very much.

Getting back to the Sanchez letter, which had there not been a campaign probably would be the story of the day. It raises a couple of questions, the first how did it happen? How did it happen that we went to war without the proper equipment in the hands of the soldiers sent to fight it, all the spare parts needed to run a war?

And the second, with National Guard members allegedly turning down a mission because their trucks didn't have armor plating how fully have the issues the general been raised been dealt with? In the ten months since he sent that letter hundreds of men and women have died in Iraq.

Jamie McIntyre, our Senior Pentagon Correspondent, is working the story tonight, Jamie good to see you.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good to see you, Aaron.

Well really these are two different things. Let's take the guard question first. These were troops that were normally operating in what was a pretty benign area in the south of Iraq. Lots of convoys have trucks without armor in it in Iraq.

But the question is what's the threat and they've been asked to go into the heart of the Sunni Triangle, the most dangerous area and they raise concerns about that.

Now some people say they're valid concerns but they may have gone about it the wrong way. There are two investigations underway to figure out whether their concerns were valid and whether they violated any rules or were insubordinate and we're waiting for the results of those investigations.

But put that aside, go back to December of 2003, General Sanchez is there and the answer to your question is he didn't anticipate, a lot of people didn't anticipate that they would be fighting such a vicious counter insurgency operation at the time.

So, equipment is wearing out much faster than they expected. They need armor for everyone, not just a few people on patrol, and he fires off an urgent memo to the Pentagon to the Army vice chief of staff and says, look, "We got a problem here. I need these spare parts and I need this armor and I need you to cut through the red tape and make it happen."

And he gets a response back from General Casey, who by the way is now the commander in Iraq, who says "I hear you. I share your concern. Here's what we're doing. We're speeding things to you this way, this way, this way, and by the way we think we'll get everybody armor by the end of January" which the Army says they did.

Now, the candidate says, candidate Kerry says this shows that the troops didn't have what they needed. The Pentagon, of course, is spinning it the other way. They're saying it shows that when commanders send an urgent message back to the Pentagon they get a response and they get what they need.

The Army says these things were addressed but clearly you could go around Iraq at any time and you could find soldiers in units who say there are more things that they need that they don't have.

BROWN: Well, let me just, I want to talk specifically about the kinds of things they said they needed. He talks about the degree of readiness in this letter that the threshold level for helicopters or Bradley's or whatever had fallen dangerously low that there weren't enough operational vehicles of one sort of another to conduct the kind of operations he wanted to conduct, correct?

MCINTYRE: Yes, well the Army standard is for 90 percent of the equipment to be ready at any given time, so only ten percent is supposed to be in the shop for repairs. In the case of helicopters it had gotten down to the point where sometimes as few as 67 percent of the helicopters were actually ready for service.

That's not acceptable and that was because spare parts were held up and weren't getting in. They didn't realize they were going to have so much wear and tear on some of these things and they clearly didn't estimate it right.

But what they did was they took a number of procedures to speed things up. They packed in different ways. They set up forward repair facilities and they said they reacted to the problem.

Now should they have anticipated this, made more plans ahead of time? Well, you know, in the military they always says logistics, logistics, logistics. That will kill you. And in this case it was clearly they hadn't anticipated what they were going to need.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, our Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre.

In Florida today lines were long, tempers short. As you saw a moment ago, early voting got underway. As you're about to see it got off to a bumpy start and not the punch card or butterfly ballot in sight, just one more in a series of problems and glitches and legal battles over all things electoral or in this case a few things electronic, from Miami tonight CNN's John Zarrella.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): On the first day of early voting in Florida, supervisors of elections heard the two words that make them cringe, technical glitch.

BRENDA SNIPES, BROWARD CO. ELECTION SUPERVISOR: I do see that the first day of early voting we do have some technical things that need to be worked out and I think that's just almost the nature of the beast but we're on top of it.

ZARRELLA: In a state much maligned for its seeming recent inability to run a problem free election the issues elections officials statewide dealt with were more spotty than chronic. While voting machines worked support equipment didn't always. In Broward County, voters stood in line for more than one hour.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's easier to get a flu shot than to vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Very frustrated. I've been here since quarter after 8:00 this morning.

ZARRELLA: Computers at several of the 14 polling places open in Broward County were not talking to computers at the supervisor's office.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

ZARRELLA: Across the state there were a variety of issues some technical but not all. In Orange County, which includes Orlando, computers went down for ten minutes, reason unknown. In Palm Beach County, a state legislator said she was not given a complete absentee ballot. And in Duval County, the supervisor of elections resigned citing health reasons.

And while the state began to vote, in a Broward County federal courtroom a trial began to determine whether electronic voting machines used in 15 counties comply with state statutes in the event of a recount. U.S. Representative Robert Wexler who brought the suit charges there's no way to know voter intent because the machines do not offer a paper trail.

REP. ROBERT WEXLER (D), FLORIDA: It's not possible to have a manual recount. That violates not only Florida law but the federal law.

RON LABASKY, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: The intention of the voter is reflected because he machine records what the voter did.

ZARRELLA: Attorneys for Wexler opened the trial questioning state elections division employees who defended the e-machine technology.

(on camera): Wexler says he understands that even if he wins there's not enough time now to change to a different voting method but he would like to see monitors assigned to polling places to ensure that any irregularities don't go unnoticed. John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead on this Monday night the goals have changed for many American soldiers in Iraq from fighting terrorists to saving buddies and getting home alive.

Plus, from abortion to gay marriage everyone has an opinion including the two candidates. Where they stand is still ahead.

From New York tonight this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The past weekend saw another grim milestone for American troops in Iraq, the death toll passing 1,100. Midway through what's been a very bloody month the soldiers on the ground in the middle of it all are mentioned often on the campaign trail by both the presidential candidates. It is rare, too rare that we hear from the soldiers themselves, so tonight we listen.

Here's CNN's Jane Arraf.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARRAF (voice-over): It's not as if there's no debate here over whether this war is worth fighting.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need to stay the course here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think they're trying to spread us too thin.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Weapons of mass destruction, I never really thought they existed.

ARRAF: But for these soldiers in Iraq's Sunni Triangle any debate at all is a bit beside the point. They're here in the middle of it and they'll stay for as long as they have to.

MAJOR GRAHAM HOFFMAN, PSYCHIATRIST: I think there's a little bit of a generation gap and I think the older guys who have read history and that sort of thing see this as a real historical sort of situation. The 19-year-olds don't and they really are fighting for their friends. They're fighting for each other and for the unit.

ARRAF: Specialist Tim Haag is here with his brother, 19. Hague is 22.

SPC, TIM HAAG, U.S. ARMY: I'm just here to get my buddies, you know. Helping the Iraqi people is cool I guess. You know, I haven't killed any terrorists. I've killed poor people.

ARRAF: "They may have been poor but they were shooting at us" his buddies remind him. It's a choice them or us they all say. (on camera): For all of the risks soldiers take a lot of them tell me they won't take the risk of saying on camera what they really believe about this war. They say they'd get into trouble if they admitted that they question whether the United States should even be here.

(voice-over): Even so, they say they want people to know that things often go better in Iraq than they appear to.

SGT. MAJ. JOHN CALPENA, 1ST INFANTRY DIVISION: People say the entire country is in disarray and we relate that to a neighborhood in New York City, say the Bronx, in a gang war or something horrible is happening and buildings were burning down. Nobody would say the entire United States is in chaos. They would say the Bronx is in chaos and it's really the same thing here.

ARRAF: Some soldiers joined because of the September 11th attack on the World Trade Center but with revelations that there were no weapons of mass destruction or links to 9/11 their belief that unseating Saddam Hussein would make the United States a safer place has worn thin.

HAAG: You know I'm not fighting terrorists anymore. I'm not fighting to find all this mass destruction. When we go into Samarra, we're not looking in the tunnels looking for, you know SCUD missiles with nukes and stuff. We're here to make sure all of our friends who are still here get back safely and that's all it's all about now.

ARRAF: Friendships here forged under fire and strengthened over months of terror and tedium are what keep these soldiers going. In the battle for Samarra, after a long night in a Bradley fighting vehicle as bullets whizzed by and explosions light the sky the cold light finally dawns. For this soldier from Alabama there's the bleakness of not believing in what you're doing but doing it anyway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm doing a job that I enlisted to do. I'm going to do that because I enlisted to do it but I'm doing it for poor reason and for me that means it's not worth being here.

ARRAF: Despite his conviction that this war isn't helping the United States he says he's just reenlisted.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Army may not have all the answers but it does have enough answers. It does support my family and that's what I'm about. I'm about taking care of my family no matter what it takes.

ARRAF: Family and friends what it takes to keep soldiering on in Iraq despite doubts and disillusionments.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ARRAF: In such closely knit units the other interesting issue is how soldiers cope with that mounting toll of dead and wounded and a lot of them tell us that it makes them more determined to keep fighting so those deaths wouldn't have been in vain -- Aaron. BROWN: Thank you, terrific job tonight, Jane Arraf embedded with the Army in Iraq.

Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, Jeff Greenfield takes a look at every television producer's worst nightmare and a civic teacher's dream, the one where we have a repeat of sorts of the 2000 election.

And later still, the rooster makes some news of his own, well he'll bring the news anyway, morning papers.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: "Slate" magazine runs a column now and then it calls "America's Worst College, the Electoral College," an invention some have said that only a founding father could love.

It makes it possible in certain respects for a winning candidate to lose and the other way around which happened in 2000. So, could it happen again? Of course it could. That's the system. But will it and to whose benefit?

Here's our Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GREENFIELD (voice-over): With a fortnight to go, sounds classier than 15 days doesn't it, most politically obsessed people are focused on the latest national polls, the latest statements or misstatements from the campaign trail or they're studying maps the way generals study the battlefield. Is Kerry really in danger in New Jersey? Is Bush in trouble in Ohio? Is Kerry slipping in the Midwest? Is Bush shaky in Arizona?

(on camera): But for an intrepid few, and I'm one of them, the real fascination of this end game is that it offers a plausible chance for the most jaw dropping, holy smokes of conclusions, a conclusion where President Bush wins the popular vote but where Senator Kerry wins the electoral vote and thus the White House.

(voice-over): I mentioned this last April on CNN. Tom Schaller, who teaches political science, wrote about it in "The Washington Post" back then. He points to what he... * Bush wins the popular vote, but where Senator Kerry wins the electoral vote and, thus, the White House.

(voice-over): I mentioned this last April on CNN. Tom Schaller, who teaches political science, wrote about it for "The Washington Post" back then. He points to it again on the blog site the Daily Kos. It's also mentioned in yesterday's Slate.com. Why?

Because the numbers that show a Bush lead right now may be suggesting that the big blue states will be less blue than in 2000. Kerry is leading big in New York, in California, but not as big as Gore won them in 2000. There seems almost no chance he'll win New Jersey by 500,000 votes, as Gore did. So, if his margins in those states shrink, that's enough to wipe out the popular vote margin Gore won by last time. But Kerry still would get all those electoral votes.

Now, look at some of the key states Bush won last time. He won Ohio by only four points. That's 166,000 votes, Missouri by only three points, 79,000. Florida -- well, you remember Florida, 537 votes. So, if Kerry wins all the Gore states and takes one of those states from the president, he wins, even if his reduced margins in the big, blue states makes Bush the popular vote winner.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GREENFIELD: Now, the numbers guys say this is all highly unlikely. Any Bush margin of more than one or two points means that Kerry can't possibly hold all those Gore states. So, it's implausible, Aaron, every bit as much as 100 million votes coming down to 537 in one state.

BROWN: If you were a betting man, you think it will happen?

GREENFIELD: The odds -- if it's purely percentages, no. But is it the novelistic way that this four-year cycle should end, that if you believe that God has a sense of humor.

BROWN: Yes.

GREENFIELD: Malicious if you're a Republican or benign if you're not -- wouldn't be surprised.

Also, if Kerry takes all the Gore states and Nevada and New Hampshire, that's just one of the possibilities where you get a tie.

(CROSSTALK)

GREENFIELD: And then we go to the House. And that's a whole other story.

It's looking less weird than when I raised this in April as a fanciful notion. But we'll find out.

BROWN: It does have a kind of symmetry to it.

GREENFIELD: Yes, tell that to the Bush..

BROWN: Well...

GREENFIELD: Symmetry. Fearful symmetry, if I may quote William Blake.

BROWN: There you go. Take care. Thank you.

GREENFIELD: OK.

BROWN: To the editorial pages now and endorsements. We're joined tonight by Jane Healy of "The Orlando Sentinel," Bob Caldwell of "The Oregonian" out in Portland, and Paul O'Connor of "The Winston-Salem Journal."

And we're glad to see you all.

In one case, out in Oregon, you've made your call. In Orlando, you're about to. And, in Winston-Salem, you did, but you didn't is sort of where we are. '

Bob, let me start with you in Oregon.

Basically, I think in a sentence you said the president, who you endorsed four years ago, turned out to be a different president.

BOB CALDWELL, "THE OREGONIAN": Well, I think that's right, yes. We endorsed a man that we thought was going to govern from the middle and do something to address the excessive partisanship in Washington, D.C. And those things didn't happen. In fact, he had a no real mandate. Yet, he pushed the administration far to the right.

BROWN: Just one other question before I move on to our others. Just to give people a sense of how this process in your paper works, your publisher has a different position, correct?

CALDWELL: That's correct. We have an editorial board. And the publisher sits on it. And so does the other group of papers, as well as me. We have four other -- five other editorial writers. And we discussed that. And, ultimately, I make the decision about who to endorse.

BROWN: Paul, your paper decided not to endorse anyone. But if you read what you guys wrote, it is a scathing, I found, indictment of the president's four years.

PAUL O'CONNOR, "THE WINSTON-SALEM JOURNAL": Well, thank you.

Yes, it certainly was. We feel that the president really did go astray -- that was our headline word -- that he did not live up to the qualities that we thought we were endorsing when we endorsed him in 2000, and that he did not deserve our endorsement for another four years.

BROWN: But you couldn't get yourselves to endorse Senator Kerry.

O'CONNOR: No, we couldn't. We have a number of principles that guide us when we make an endorsement, fiscal integrity, small government, strong defense. And we just did not feel that Senator Kerry lived up to those principles either, although if you were to read the editorial, which is at JournalNow.com, you would see that we were much, much rougher on the president than we were on Senator Kerry.

BROWN: You were, absolutely. And just in a sentence or two, where does your paper's ownership come down in all of this?

O'CONNOR: The ownership is -- we are a Media General paper. And our ownership, we own Richmond. We own Tampa.

And the -- the folks in Richmond who run the company basically sent -- reminded us what our principles are of fiscal integrity, less government and strong defense and said, if you don't want to endorse Bush, you don't have to. If you can make the argument that Senator Kerry lives up to our ideals, let's hear the argument.

BROWN: What an interesting process.

Jane, your paper, "The Sentinel," will endorse on Sunday. I think it's not been since LBJ that you endorsed a Democrat. Is the situation at all similar this time as it was 40 years ago?

JANE HEALY, "THE ORLANDO SENTINEL": Well, the endorsement is very much on the table. We'll be making our decision on Thursday at an editorial board meeting with everybody going at it and giving the strongest argument for who they think "The Sentinel" ought to endorse. And, as you said, we haven't endorsed a Democrat since 1964, when we endorsed LBJ. But who knows? We could go either way this time.

BROWN: Let me ask each of you the same question, as we sort of come to the end, Jane, starting with you.

Do you believe that voters look to the paper to help make a decision?

HEALY: Well, I think in presidential less than any other race. We probably have more influence on things like judicial races.

BROWN: Yes.

HEALY: That readers don't know much about. I think it's more is what the paper stands for. And it's a symbol for the next four years, in terms of your core values, like the other editorial page editors were saying.

BROWN: That's a great way to look at it.

Bob, do you think it will influence the vote in Oregon?

CALDWELL: Well, to the extent that there's maybe eight or nine undecided voters out here...

BROWN: Yes.

CALDWELL: ... they might be influenced by the editorial. Of course, you don't know in which direction.

BROWN: And, Paul, if they're relying on your paper, I guess they're going to stay home.

O'CONNOR: No, no, we told them not to do that. We told them not to do that. They need to use what we said and help that -- help them make the decision they want to make.

BROWN: Paul and Bob, it was interesting to read what the papers wrote.

And, Jane, we look forward to seeing where the Orlando paper comes down on all of this, this weekend. Thanks for your time tonight.

HEALY: Thank you.

O'CONNOR: Thank you.

CALDWELL: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you.

Still to come on the program, our very own no-spin zone and a very clear look at where the candidates stand on some very important issues, the social issues.

And almost 150 years in the making, this is terrific, finally a book any candidate can get behind, politics in pictures.

A break first. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Just two weeks and a day to go until November 2, not much time left to sort the spin from the fact. In the final stretch of the campaign, we'll try and cut through some of the clutter. Every day this week, we'll devote a segment of the program to one issue or key issues figuring in the race, how the candidates differ.

We begin with the social issues, where the debates are full of grays, but also where the divide between the president and Senator Kerry is in some cases very clear.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWD: Gay, straight, black, white, all united to fight the right!

BROWN (voice-over): These are the hot-button issues that touch us where we live, the red-hot intersection of religion and politics, our public and private lives, who we can marry, when life begins, how it should end. These are issues that come from deep within and often do not lend themselves to compromise, hard things for a democracy to deal with.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I believe that, in the year 2004, we deserve a president who understands that a stronger America, where women's rights are just that, rights, not political weapons to be used by politicians in this nation.

BROWN: John Kerry supports a women's right to choose abortion. And he voted against a ban on the so-called partial-birth abortion method because it did not include an exception for a woman's health. And Kerry supports the renewed funding of international family planning organizations. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because a caring society will value its weakest members, we must make a place for the unborn child.

BROWN: George W. Bush opposes abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or where the mother's life is endangered. He signed into law the bill that banned partial-birth abortions and has cut off funding to international family planning agencies he accuses of abortion- related activities.

In a related issue, the president funded research into the potential medical benefits of embryonic stem cells, but limited that research to the small number of already existing lines of cells to avoid what he called the further destruction of human embryos. John Kerry supports federal funding of stem cell research without the limits on the number of new cell lines, except appropriate ethical oversight.

Senator Kerry opposes same-sex marriage, but also opposes a constitutional amendment to ban them. He would support the right of gays to serve openly in the military. President Bush encouraged Congress to pass the amendment to ban same-sex marriage. And the president continues President Clinton's don't-ask/don't-tell policy on gays in the military.

George W. Bush supports the death penalty; 152 people were executed while he was the governor of Texas, but favors giving inmates increased access to do DNA tests that might prove their innocence. John Kerry opposes the death penalty, except in cases of terrorism, and would impose a moratorium on federal executions until DNA evidence could be used to make sure that all those on death row are, in fact, guilty.

On the issue of gun control, Kerry supports a citizen's right to own a gun, but also supported the ban on assault weapons and its extension. George W. Bush also supports the right to own a gun. He supported the assault weapon ban, but has been accused of permitting it to expire without pushing for its renewal.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: The social issues. Tomorrow, health care, complicated business, our week of issues on Tuesday.

Ahead on the program tonight, campaigns through the ages from whistle stops to celebrity photo-ops in stills.

And a little bit later, morning papers. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, it's true that presidential campaigns are built upon words and issues. But it's also true that images play a crucial role in them as well. Tonight, we turn the lens on politics, a lens that stretches back more than an century. Douglas Schoen is a political consultant who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans. He's also the editor of a book about presidential elections, a story told in stills.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOUGLAS SCHOEN, EDITOR, "ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL": This book is the history of American presidential campaigns through images. It's the story of how we campaign, how we choose our leaders. And, ultimately, it's the story of America.

Well, we started in 1860, because the two-party system basically evolved around the 1856 or 1860 election, with the Republicans holding the majority of the victories. Every campaign and every candidate since really the turn of the century took the so-called whistle stops tour. In an era where there was no television and radio was in its nascent form, this was an enormously important and earth-shattering undertaking.

You really get a sense as to the way the candidates presented themselves and in a certain sense the timeless traditions that ran through campaigns. And there were two images that strike me. The first was the picture of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 with his tie open, his hands on his head, sitting at his desk. And you just have a sense of a defeated man.

The other image -- and it's one that exists in stark contrast -- is the image of John F. Kennedy in 1960 relaxed, looking at himself on TV, the picture of supreme confidence. And those two images for me really evoke the men, the circumstances they faced, and ultimately a good part of who they are.

The whole point of this is that there's a lot of fun, that candidates kiss babies, meet sports stars, spend time with their friends and family on the train. People who start in the process keep coming back. Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920. He emerges as the president in 1932. Obviously, Richard Nixon lost in '60. He's elected in '68. John F. Kennedy tried to become vice president in 1956. He was elected president in '60. Al Gore tried to run for president in 1988. He's nominated for vice president in 1992.

And even Arnold Schwarzenegger was campaigning with the first George Bush in the 1988 election. And we all know what happened to him this year in California.

We found the Superman image. It was in the '76 or '80 election. And, really, what we were trying to do with that final image was to suggest that there is both an aspect of ritual. There's an aspect of finality and, frankly, an aspect of the absurd in the whole process.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It's all there, isn't it?

Morning papers will wrap up the hour. We'll take a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(ROOSTER CROWING)

BROWN: Okeydokey, time to check morning papers around the country, around the world, some just fabulous stuff tonight. Oh, man, tomorrow morning for newspaper lovers is going to be great.

"The International Herald Tribune," published by "The New York Times." I expect a couple of these will be in "The Times" tomorrow. Michael Gordon, the chief military writer for "The Times," "How the Postwar Situation in Iraq Went Awry," the first of three articles. And I suspect they are fascinating. Also, "The Times"/CBS News poll is out. "Voters Fault Bush, But Are Wary of Kerry. Two Weeks to Go Before Election Finds the Race Tied." The CBS poll finds the president's approval rating at 44 percent. That's a very low number for an incumbent president. And that could -- well, it could lead to a Kerry victory. But it does not necessarily have to. We'll see.

"Washington Times." "Access to Polling Places Tightens. States Begin Early Voting as Rulings Take Effect." Barbara Bush was among those who voted early. And there's her husband, George H.W. there. Also, "Evangelicals Endeavor to Redeem the Vote," a look at the Christian right and their activity in this election season.

"The Duluth News Tribune." That would be Duluth, Minnesota, right, not Duluth, Georgia. Maybe there's other Duluths, but those are the two I know of. "Edwards' Visit" -- that's why they did it -- "Edwards' Visit Aims to Counter GOP Gains." The sense is that, in the Twin Cities, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Senator Kerry will run very well and, in the outlying areas, the suburbs, maybe not so well. And Duluth is way up north, almost to the Canadian border.

"Stars and Stripes" magazine -- no, newspaper. "Voting Starts in Florida. Bush Inches Up in Polls," the way our soldiers will get the news tomorrow.

"The Philadelphia Inquirer." "War Fuels Bush Visit," his visit to New Jersey, "Kerry Reply." "U.S. Faces Tough Options in Quest For Stable Iraq" also on the front page of "The Philadelphia Inquirer." I've it before. I'll say it again. I like this newspaper paper a lot.

"The Detroit News." "Auto Suppliers Sink Under Rising Costs." That's the big story up here. Down at the bottom, though, "Milliken Endorses Kerry." That's William Milliken, the former Republican governor of Michigan. So he becomes a Zell Miller of our time.

Burt County, Nebraska, "The Plaindealer," out early this week. This is actually Wednesday's edition, but it's important news. "Flu Shots Few in Burt County." Son of a gun.

The weather in Chicago tomorrow, according to "The Sun-Times," is "party gloomy."

We'll wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The "AMERICAN MORNING" gang all back together. Soledad is back. And they're all in Chicago, did a terrific program today, and bet they will tomorrow, too, 7:00 a.m. Eastern. So join them.

We're in Atlanta tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time. Wherever we are, we hope you'll join us.

Until then, good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired October 18, 2004 - 22:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening again everyone.
It was yesterday I think the governor of Florida said he didn't think there would be voting problems in his state this time around. Wrong, there are already. Problems showed up today in early voting precincts and we'll have that story coming up.

Also, in Hamilton County, Ohio, the Cincinnati area, a small problem with some, we don't know how many yet, but some absentee ballots. John Kerry's name isn't on them. You'd think that was the sort of thing they'd check before the ballots were sent out. The head of the election board said today in an understatement "It's a screw- up," and added quite correctly, "This just feeds the paranoia that's out there."

Around here we've been trying to understand why it is that Americans don't vote. About half of the registered voters in the country don't. Maybe problems like Florida experience today, not big but noteworthy, perhaps the problems in Ohio, how big we really don't know are part of the reason.

If you don't have confidence in the system, you don't participate in the system. In a landslide perhaps it doesn't matter much, a bad machine here, a small mistake there but in this election at this time it matters a lot. It's going to be a long election night at this rate.

The whip begins tonight in Florida. Our Senior White House Correspondent John King traveling with the president, John a headline on the campaign.

JOHN KING, CNN SR. WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the president today said his Democratic opponent has a September the 10th attitude that would put this country at risk. Get ready for a very bruising final two weeks -- Aaron.

BROWN: John, thank you.

St. Petersburg to Orlando, CNN's Candy Crowley with the Kerry campaign in Florida as well tonight, Candy a headline.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Aaron, the Kerry campaign wanted to turn the corner for these last two weeks and talk about issues close to home. Then the president gave a speech on terrorism. There was a change of plans. BROWN: Candy, thank you.

Next to yet another echo from the 2000 election all to do with the Electoral College and the fun it may yet cause again, yes fun, Jeff Greenfield on that so Jeff a headline.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Aaron, sift through the avalanche of poll numbers and what seemed the merest possibility in April now seems just a little more plausible that we have the 2000 result once again, a split decision, but this time in reverse -- Aaron.

BROWN: Jeff.

Finally to Iraq and a soldier's eye view of war and politics, CNN's Jane Arraf on the video phone, Jane a headline from you.

JANE ARRAF, CNN BAGHDAD BUREAU CHIEF: Aaron, with all the debate over the war in Iraq we talked to people who are rarely asked, American soldiers here on the ground, about how they feel about being here.

BROWN: Jane, thank you. We'll get back to you and the rest shortly.

Also coming up on the program tonight they've got issues and, as it turns out so do we. We'll take a look at how those issues are being seen by the candidates tonight, the social issues from abortion to stem cell research.

And the more things change the more they stay the same it seems, politics from the last 150 years or so in still photos.

And morning papers as well at the end of the hour, all that and more in the hour ahead.

We begin tonight with the campaign and a new batch of polls that show the president pulling slightly ahead, enjoying about a five-point edge. On the other hand, pollster John Zogby who was spot on in 2000 puts the race even.

Polls are complicated beasts and when you move from the registered voter to the likely voter even more so but there are signs the president has moved ahead at least in the raw national vote. In any case it's close enough still that neither Senator Kerry nor the president taking much for granted, not in where they go or what they say.

Today it was defense, two takes, two reports beginning with the president and our Senior White House Correspondent John King.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KING (voice-over): The location was a bit of a surprise, the focus of the president's speech anything but. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: When one Senator among 100 holds a policy of weakness it doesn't make a lot of difference but the presidency is an office of great responsibility and consequence.

KING: The scathing attack foreshadowed a bruising final two weeks. Mr. Bush said Senator Kerry repeatedly tried to slash intelligence funding, voted against major weapons systems, shifted positions on the Iraq War and has voiced reservations about using military power against terrorist groups and rogue regimes.

BUSH: Senator Kerry's approach would permit a response only after America is hit. This kind of September the 10th attitude is no way to protect our country.

KING: Democrats complained of distortions and accused the president of preying on fear.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's exploiting a national tragedy for personal gain and it's the lowest kind of politics.

KING: Senator Kerry prefers to close on health care and other pocketbook issues, so Mr. Bush's strategy is to paint his opponent as a tax and spend liberal on the home front and on too weak for the times when it comes to national security.

ANNOUNCER: John Kerry and his liberal allies are they a risk we can afford to take today?

KING: The president enters the final two weeks with a slight edge in the polls and a giant advantage, 22 points, when voters are asked which candidate can better handle the war on terror. New Jersey hasn't voted Republican for president since 1988.

BUSH: Oh, I know it might surprise some to see a Republican presidential candidate in New Jersey in late October.

KING: But some state polls show a dead heat and by picking Marlton (ph), Mr. Bush also guaranteed coverage in eastern Pennsylvania, one of the battlegrounds where Mr. Bush hopes security issues hold sway in the end.

(on camera): Voicing confidence the Bush campaign says the president has regained the momentum heading into the final two weeks but many senior Republicans are still worried, noting Mr. Bush rarely cracks 50 percent of the national polls and has a job approval rating one close campaign adviser called "in the nervous zone for an incumbent."

John King, CNN, St. Petersburg, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CROWLEY (voice-over): (UNINTELLIGIBLE) with the Kerry campaign in Orlando. The man who once led ground operations in Iraq told the Pentagon last December supplies were so short it threatened the Army's ability to fight. The Pentagon says the shortages were addressed but there is political punch left.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Listen to the troops and give the troops the equipment that they need. Stand up for the troops. Fight for the troops. Lead the troops.

CROWLEY: Infuriated by what it calls Kerry's riff, the Bush campaign noted that last October military commanders went to Capitol Hill to lobby for $87 billion to fund the war and Kerry voted no. Puddle jumping from West Palm to Tampa to Orlando, Kerry was in Florida touching base literally, first with angry Democrats.

KERRY: And you have my pledge. You go to the polls and we'll make sure that this time every vote counts.

CROWLEY: And to Jewish supporters, four percent of Florida's 2000 vote, Kerry stressed is 100 percent support for the cause of Israel.

KERRY: I climbed to the top of Masada and I've stood on the top of Masada and yelled out as the Air Force recruits and others used to from the side of that cliff the words (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

CROWLEY: For seniors, 27 percent of Florida's vote, Kerry talked up his prescription drug plan and talked down the president's lack of plans for the flu shot shortage.

KERRY: If Halliburton made flu shots, you'd have more flu shots here than there are oranges in the state of Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And, Candy and John are with us now.

Candy, let's start with you. Do you detect within the campaign some nervousness about the shift of polls in the last four or five days?

CROWLEY: They say not but obviously, you know, when you get this close these polls begin to mean something. You would much rather be George Bush at this point; however, they say what most people say when they're behind a little in the polls. We question the methodology of some of these polls.

They say that it's not what their polls are showing. They believe if they can push back really hard on the president's terrorism speech today and they promise they will do that in a single speech in Iowa as well as in some other speeches they believe that they can, you know, right the ship.

And they say their internal numbers still show that the president is below that magic number of 50 and that that is not good for any incumbent, so they are looking at the numbers and seeing different ones than the overall horse race.

BROWN: John, looking at the president's day today and looking at that enormous gap between how voters seem to perceive the president and seem to perceive the Senator on terror in particular is this the theme for the next week and a half?

KING: It will be the overriding theme. They know they need to talk about health care. They need to talk about the economy, especially in the big industrial states Pennsylvania, Ohio, but they want to make the threshold issue security. They want to say before you think about anything else in this election who should be the commander-in-chief?

If the Bush campaign can succeed at that, they think they win the election but, Aaron they're looking at the very same numbers. The president's approval rating is in a dangerous spot for an incumbent.

History says undecided voters don't tend to break for an incumbent late in the campaign. They will emphasize the president's strengths but they also know they have some weaknesses to deal with too.

BROWN: When they say they need to talk about the economy and they need to talk about health care, John, are they going to talk about the president's plans for or are they going to talk about the Senator's liberalism, if you will?

KING: A little bit of both. When it comes to health care more of the Senator's liberalism from the Bush campaign prospective, Senator Kerry obviously disagrees. When it comes to the economy they do think they have a more positive story to tell in the sense that this is one of the big debating points in the campaign.

But the Bush campaign would make the case it can go into Ohio. It can go into Pennsylvania and say the tax cuts made it a much more shallow recession and that, yes, there is frustration. Yes, there is a wait, if you will, for the jobs to come back but that things are beginning on the upswing.

So they think they have a more positive message on the economy. On health care they realize the Democrats have a huge advantage on that one. They will tend to be more on the attack. Even as the president makes the case for his plan the attacks will come in a much louder volume.

BROWN: And, Candy, the last word here just sitting here watching over the last week or so it seems the Kerry campaign is constantly reacting. They're not able to set the agenda which, if I were the candidate, I'd find a bit uncomfortable.

CROWLEY: It's interesting. I brought that up today when they were talking about, you know, as a leader the voters are comfortable that we're going to go back out and we're going to show them that leadership again. And I said, "Well, isn't this reacting to the president's speech?" "No, no, no. We consider ourselves much more on the offense than the defense." So, you know, it's a word. They prefer to see themselves on offense as on defense but, again, they believe they made huge headway in the debates and I think the polls at some level bear them out. What they need to do is bring this thing home and they believe that by showing people, look, I can be a commander-in-chief.

We've heard a lot about his Vietnam experience today for the first time in some time. So, they're back to that again a little bit so they just feel that they just need to kind of push this over the edge a little and allow people to see John Kerry as president.

BROWN: Candy, John thank you both. We'll talk tomorrow. Thank you very much.

Getting back to the Sanchez letter, which had there not been a campaign probably would be the story of the day. It raises a couple of questions, the first how did it happen? How did it happen that we went to war without the proper equipment in the hands of the soldiers sent to fight it, all the spare parts needed to run a war?

And the second, with National Guard members allegedly turning down a mission because their trucks didn't have armor plating how fully have the issues the general been raised been dealt with? In the ten months since he sent that letter hundreds of men and women have died in Iraq.

Jamie McIntyre, our Senior Pentagon Correspondent, is working the story tonight, Jamie good to see you.

JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good to see you, Aaron.

Well really these are two different things. Let's take the guard question first. These were troops that were normally operating in what was a pretty benign area in the south of Iraq. Lots of convoys have trucks without armor in it in Iraq.

But the question is what's the threat and they've been asked to go into the heart of the Sunni Triangle, the most dangerous area and they raise concerns about that.

Now some people say they're valid concerns but they may have gone about it the wrong way. There are two investigations underway to figure out whether their concerns were valid and whether they violated any rules or were insubordinate and we're waiting for the results of those investigations.

But put that aside, go back to December of 2003, General Sanchez is there and the answer to your question is he didn't anticipate, a lot of people didn't anticipate that they would be fighting such a vicious counter insurgency operation at the time.

So, equipment is wearing out much faster than they expected. They need armor for everyone, not just a few people on patrol, and he fires off an urgent memo to the Pentagon to the Army vice chief of staff and says, look, "We got a problem here. I need these spare parts and I need this armor and I need you to cut through the red tape and make it happen."

And he gets a response back from General Casey, who by the way is now the commander in Iraq, who says "I hear you. I share your concern. Here's what we're doing. We're speeding things to you this way, this way, this way, and by the way we think we'll get everybody armor by the end of January" which the Army says they did.

Now, the candidate says, candidate Kerry says this shows that the troops didn't have what they needed. The Pentagon, of course, is spinning it the other way. They're saying it shows that when commanders send an urgent message back to the Pentagon they get a response and they get what they need.

The Army says these things were addressed but clearly you could go around Iraq at any time and you could find soldiers in units who say there are more things that they need that they don't have.

BROWN: Well, let me just, I want to talk specifically about the kinds of things they said they needed. He talks about the degree of readiness in this letter that the threshold level for helicopters or Bradley's or whatever had fallen dangerously low that there weren't enough operational vehicles of one sort of another to conduct the kind of operations he wanted to conduct, correct?

MCINTYRE: Yes, well the Army standard is for 90 percent of the equipment to be ready at any given time, so only ten percent is supposed to be in the shop for repairs. In the case of helicopters it had gotten down to the point where sometimes as few as 67 percent of the helicopters were actually ready for service.

That's not acceptable and that was because spare parts were held up and weren't getting in. They didn't realize they were going to have so much wear and tear on some of these things and they clearly didn't estimate it right.

But what they did was they took a number of procedures to speed things up. They packed in different ways. They set up forward repair facilities and they said they reacted to the problem.

Now should they have anticipated this, made more plans ahead of time? Well, you know, in the military they always says logistics, logistics, logistics. That will kill you. And in this case it was clearly they hadn't anticipated what they were going to need.

BROWN: Jamie, thank you, our Senior Pentagon Correspondent Jamie McIntyre.

In Florida today lines were long, tempers short. As you saw a moment ago, early voting got underway. As you're about to see it got off to a bumpy start and not the punch card or butterfly ballot in sight, just one more in a series of problems and glitches and legal battles over all things electoral or in this case a few things electronic, from Miami tonight CNN's John Zarrella.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): On the first day of early voting in Florida, supervisors of elections heard the two words that make them cringe, technical glitch.

BRENDA SNIPES, BROWARD CO. ELECTION SUPERVISOR: I do see that the first day of early voting we do have some technical things that need to be worked out and I think that's just almost the nature of the beast but we're on top of it.

ZARRELLA: In a state much maligned for its seeming recent inability to run a problem free election the issues elections officials statewide dealt with were more spotty than chronic. While voting machines worked support equipment didn't always. In Broward County, voters stood in line for more than one hour.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's easier to get a flu shot than to vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Very frustrated. I've been here since quarter after 8:00 this morning.

ZARRELLA: Computers at several of the 14 polling places open in Broward County were not talking to computers at the supervisor's office.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The problem here is that there is a problem with the connection with the mainframe computer.

ZARRELLA: Across the state there were a variety of issues some technical but not all. In Orange County, which includes Orlando, computers went down for ten minutes, reason unknown. In Palm Beach County, a state legislator said she was not given a complete absentee ballot. And in Duval County, the supervisor of elections resigned citing health reasons.

And while the state began to vote, in a Broward County federal courtroom a trial began to determine whether electronic voting machines used in 15 counties comply with state statutes in the event of a recount. U.S. Representative Robert Wexler who brought the suit charges there's no way to know voter intent because the machines do not offer a paper trail.

REP. ROBERT WEXLER (D), FLORIDA: It's not possible to have a manual recount. That violates not only Florida law but the federal law.

RON LABASKY, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: The intention of the voter is reflected because he machine records what the voter did.

ZARRELLA: Attorneys for Wexler opened the trial questioning state elections division employees who defended the e-machine technology.

(on camera): Wexler says he understands that even if he wins there's not enough time now to change to a different voting method but he would like to see monitors assigned to polling places to ensure that any irregularities don't go unnoticed. John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead on this Monday night the goals have changed for many American soldiers in Iraq from fighting terrorists to saving buddies and getting home alive.

Plus, from abortion to gay marriage everyone has an opinion including the two candidates. Where they stand is still ahead.

From New York tonight this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The past weekend saw another grim milestone for American troops in Iraq, the death toll passing 1,100. Midway through what's been a very bloody month the soldiers on the ground in the middle of it all are mentioned often on the campaign trail by both the presidential candidates. It is rare, too rare that we hear from the soldiers themselves, so tonight we listen.

Here's CNN's Jane Arraf.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARRAF (voice-over): It's not as if there's no debate here over whether this war is worth fighting.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need to stay the course here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think they're trying to spread us too thin.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Weapons of mass destruction, I never really thought they existed.

ARRAF: But for these soldiers in Iraq's Sunni Triangle any debate at all is a bit beside the point. They're here in the middle of it and they'll stay for as long as they have to.

MAJOR GRAHAM HOFFMAN, PSYCHIATRIST: I think there's a little bit of a generation gap and I think the older guys who have read history and that sort of thing see this as a real historical sort of situation. The 19-year-olds don't and they really are fighting for their friends. They're fighting for each other and for the unit.

ARRAF: Specialist Tim Haag is here with his brother, 19. Hague is 22.

SPC, TIM HAAG, U.S. ARMY: I'm just here to get my buddies, you know. Helping the Iraqi people is cool I guess. You know, I haven't killed any terrorists. I've killed poor people.

ARRAF: "They may have been poor but they were shooting at us" his buddies remind him. It's a choice them or us they all say. (on camera): For all of the risks soldiers take a lot of them tell me they won't take the risk of saying on camera what they really believe about this war. They say they'd get into trouble if they admitted that they question whether the United States should even be here.

(voice-over): Even so, they say they want people to know that things often go better in Iraq than they appear to.

SGT. MAJ. JOHN CALPENA, 1ST INFANTRY DIVISION: People say the entire country is in disarray and we relate that to a neighborhood in New York City, say the Bronx, in a gang war or something horrible is happening and buildings were burning down. Nobody would say the entire United States is in chaos. They would say the Bronx is in chaos and it's really the same thing here.

ARRAF: Some soldiers joined because of the September 11th attack on the World Trade Center but with revelations that there were no weapons of mass destruction or links to 9/11 their belief that unseating Saddam Hussein would make the United States a safer place has worn thin.

HAAG: You know I'm not fighting terrorists anymore. I'm not fighting to find all this mass destruction. When we go into Samarra, we're not looking in the tunnels looking for, you know SCUD missiles with nukes and stuff. We're here to make sure all of our friends who are still here get back safely and that's all it's all about now.

ARRAF: Friendships here forged under fire and strengthened over months of terror and tedium are what keep these soldiers going. In the battle for Samarra, after a long night in a Bradley fighting vehicle as bullets whizzed by and explosions light the sky the cold light finally dawns. For this soldier from Alabama there's the bleakness of not believing in what you're doing but doing it anyway.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm doing a job that I enlisted to do. I'm going to do that because I enlisted to do it but I'm doing it for poor reason and for me that means it's not worth being here.

ARRAF: Despite his conviction that this war isn't helping the United States he says he's just reenlisted.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Army may not have all the answers but it does have enough answers. It does support my family and that's what I'm about. I'm about taking care of my family no matter what it takes.

ARRAF: Family and friends what it takes to keep soldiering on in Iraq despite doubts and disillusionments.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ARRAF: In such closely knit units the other interesting issue is how soldiers cope with that mounting toll of dead and wounded and a lot of them tell us that it makes them more determined to keep fighting so those deaths wouldn't have been in vain -- Aaron. BROWN: Thank you, terrific job tonight, Jane Arraf embedded with the Army in Iraq.

Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, Jeff Greenfield takes a look at every television producer's worst nightmare and a civic teacher's dream, the one where we have a repeat of sorts of the 2000 election.

And later still, the rooster makes some news of his own, well he'll bring the news anyway, morning papers.

This is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: "Slate" magazine runs a column now and then it calls "America's Worst College, the Electoral College," an invention some have said that only a founding father could love.

It makes it possible in certain respects for a winning candidate to lose and the other way around which happened in 2000. So, could it happen again? Of course it could. That's the system. But will it and to whose benefit?

Here's our Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GREENFIELD (voice-over): With a fortnight to go, sounds classier than 15 days doesn't it, most politically obsessed people are focused on the latest national polls, the latest statements or misstatements from the campaign trail or they're studying maps the way generals study the battlefield. Is Kerry really in danger in New Jersey? Is Bush in trouble in Ohio? Is Kerry slipping in the Midwest? Is Bush shaky in Arizona?

(on camera): But for an intrepid few, and I'm one of them, the real fascination of this end game is that it offers a plausible chance for the most jaw dropping, holy smokes of conclusions, a conclusion where President Bush wins the popular vote but where Senator Kerry wins the electoral vote and thus the White House.

(voice-over): I mentioned this last April on CNN. Tom Schaller, who teaches political science, wrote about it in "The Washington Post" back then. He points to what he... * Bush wins the popular vote, but where Senator Kerry wins the electoral vote and, thus, the White House.

(voice-over): I mentioned this last April on CNN. Tom Schaller, who teaches political science, wrote about it for "The Washington Post" back then. He points to it again on the blog site the Daily Kos. It's also mentioned in yesterday's Slate.com. Why?

Because the numbers that show a Bush lead right now may be suggesting that the big blue states will be less blue than in 2000. Kerry is leading big in New York, in California, but not as big as Gore won them in 2000. There seems almost no chance he'll win New Jersey by 500,000 votes, as Gore did. So, if his margins in those states shrink, that's enough to wipe out the popular vote margin Gore won by last time. But Kerry still would get all those electoral votes.

Now, look at some of the key states Bush won last time. He won Ohio by only four points. That's 166,000 votes, Missouri by only three points, 79,000. Florida -- well, you remember Florida, 537 votes. So, if Kerry wins all the Gore states and takes one of those states from the president, he wins, even if his reduced margins in the big, blue states makes Bush the popular vote winner.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GREENFIELD: Now, the numbers guys say this is all highly unlikely. Any Bush margin of more than one or two points means that Kerry can't possibly hold all those Gore states. So, it's implausible, Aaron, every bit as much as 100 million votes coming down to 537 in one state.

BROWN: If you were a betting man, you think it will happen?

GREENFIELD: The odds -- if it's purely percentages, no. But is it the novelistic way that this four-year cycle should end, that if you believe that God has a sense of humor.

BROWN: Yes.

GREENFIELD: Malicious if you're a Republican or benign if you're not -- wouldn't be surprised.

Also, if Kerry takes all the Gore states and Nevada and New Hampshire, that's just one of the possibilities where you get a tie.

(CROSSTALK)

GREENFIELD: And then we go to the House. And that's a whole other story.

It's looking less weird than when I raised this in April as a fanciful notion. But we'll find out.

BROWN: It does have a kind of symmetry to it.

GREENFIELD: Yes, tell that to the Bush..

BROWN: Well...

GREENFIELD: Symmetry. Fearful symmetry, if I may quote William Blake.

BROWN: There you go. Take care. Thank you.

GREENFIELD: OK.

BROWN: To the editorial pages now and endorsements. We're joined tonight by Jane Healy of "The Orlando Sentinel," Bob Caldwell of "The Oregonian" out in Portland, and Paul O'Connor of "The Winston-Salem Journal."

And we're glad to see you all.

In one case, out in Oregon, you've made your call. In Orlando, you're about to. And, in Winston-Salem, you did, but you didn't is sort of where we are. '

Bob, let me start with you in Oregon.

Basically, I think in a sentence you said the president, who you endorsed four years ago, turned out to be a different president.

BOB CALDWELL, "THE OREGONIAN": Well, I think that's right, yes. We endorsed a man that we thought was going to govern from the middle and do something to address the excessive partisanship in Washington, D.C. And those things didn't happen. In fact, he had a no real mandate. Yet, he pushed the administration far to the right.

BROWN: Just one other question before I move on to our others. Just to give people a sense of how this process in your paper works, your publisher has a different position, correct?

CALDWELL: That's correct. We have an editorial board. And the publisher sits on it. And so does the other group of papers, as well as me. We have four other -- five other editorial writers. And we discussed that. And, ultimately, I make the decision about who to endorse.

BROWN: Paul, your paper decided not to endorse anyone. But if you read what you guys wrote, it is a scathing, I found, indictment of the president's four years.

PAUL O'CONNOR, "THE WINSTON-SALEM JOURNAL": Well, thank you.

Yes, it certainly was. We feel that the president really did go astray -- that was our headline word -- that he did not live up to the qualities that we thought we were endorsing when we endorsed him in 2000, and that he did not deserve our endorsement for another four years.

BROWN: But you couldn't get yourselves to endorse Senator Kerry.

O'CONNOR: No, we couldn't. We have a number of principles that guide us when we make an endorsement, fiscal integrity, small government, strong defense. And we just did not feel that Senator Kerry lived up to those principles either, although if you were to read the editorial, which is at JournalNow.com, you would see that we were much, much rougher on the president than we were on Senator Kerry.

BROWN: You were, absolutely. And just in a sentence or two, where does your paper's ownership come down in all of this?

O'CONNOR: The ownership is -- we are a Media General paper. And our ownership, we own Richmond. We own Tampa.

And the -- the folks in Richmond who run the company basically sent -- reminded us what our principles are of fiscal integrity, less government and strong defense and said, if you don't want to endorse Bush, you don't have to. If you can make the argument that Senator Kerry lives up to our ideals, let's hear the argument.

BROWN: What an interesting process.

Jane, your paper, "The Sentinel," will endorse on Sunday. I think it's not been since LBJ that you endorsed a Democrat. Is the situation at all similar this time as it was 40 years ago?

JANE HEALY, "THE ORLANDO SENTINEL": Well, the endorsement is very much on the table. We'll be making our decision on Thursday at an editorial board meeting with everybody going at it and giving the strongest argument for who they think "The Sentinel" ought to endorse. And, as you said, we haven't endorsed a Democrat since 1964, when we endorsed LBJ. But who knows? We could go either way this time.

BROWN: Let me ask each of you the same question, as we sort of come to the end, Jane, starting with you.

Do you believe that voters look to the paper to help make a decision?

HEALY: Well, I think in presidential less than any other race. We probably have more influence on things like judicial races.

BROWN: Yes.

HEALY: That readers don't know much about. I think it's more is what the paper stands for. And it's a symbol for the next four years, in terms of your core values, like the other editorial page editors were saying.

BROWN: That's a great way to look at it.

Bob, do you think it will influence the vote in Oregon?

CALDWELL: Well, to the extent that there's maybe eight or nine undecided voters out here...

BROWN: Yes.

CALDWELL: ... they might be influenced by the editorial. Of course, you don't know in which direction.

BROWN: And, Paul, if they're relying on your paper, I guess they're going to stay home.

O'CONNOR: No, no, we told them not to do that. We told them not to do that. They need to use what we said and help that -- help them make the decision they want to make.

BROWN: Paul and Bob, it was interesting to read what the papers wrote.

And, Jane, we look forward to seeing where the Orlando paper comes down on all of this, this weekend. Thanks for your time tonight.

HEALY: Thank you.

O'CONNOR: Thank you.

CALDWELL: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you.

Still to come on the program, our very own no-spin zone and a very clear look at where the candidates stand on some very important issues, the social issues.

And almost 150 years in the making, this is terrific, finally a book any candidate can get behind, politics in pictures.

A break first. Around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Just two weeks and a day to go until November 2, not much time left to sort the spin from the fact. In the final stretch of the campaign, we'll try and cut through some of the clutter. Every day this week, we'll devote a segment of the program to one issue or key issues figuring in the race, how the candidates differ.

We begin with the social issues, where the debates are full of grays, but also where the divide between the president and Senator Kerry is in some cases very clear.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CROWD: Gay, straight, black, white, all united to fight the right!

BROWN (voice-over): These are the hot-button issues that touch us where we live, the red-hot intersection of religion and politics, our public and private lives, who we can marry, when life begins, how it should end. These are issues that come from deep within and often do not lend themselves to compromise, hard things for a democracy to deal with.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I believe that, in the year 2004, we deserve a president who understands that a stronger America, where women's rights are just that, rights, not political weapons to be used by politicians in this nation.

BROWN: John Kerry supports a women's right to choose abortion. And he voted against a ban on the so-called partial-birth abortion method because it did not include an exception for a woman's health. And Kerry supports the renewed funding of international family planning organizations. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because a caring society will value its weakest members, we must make a place for the unborn child.

BROWN: George W. Bush opposes abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or where the mother's life is endangered. He signed into law the bill that banned partial-birth abortions and has cut off funding to international family planning agencies he accuses of abortion- related activities.

In a related issue, the president funded research into the potential medical benefits of embryonic stem cells, but limited that research to the small number of already existing lines of cells to avoid what he called the further destruction of human embryos. John Kerry supports federal funding of stem cell research without the limits on the number of new cell lines, except appropriate ethical oversight.

Senator Kerry opposes same-sex marriage, but also opposes a constitutional amendment to ban them. He would support the right of gays to serve openly in the military. President Bush encouraged Congress to pass the amendment to ban same-sex marriage. And the president continues President Clinton's don't-ask/don't-tell policy on gays in the military.

George W. Bush supports the death penalty; 152 people were executed while he was the governor of Texas, but favors giving inmates increased access to do DNA tests that might prove their innocence. John Kerry opposes the death penalty, except in cases of terrorism, and would impose a moratorium on federal executions until DNA evidence could be used to make sure that all those on death row are, in fact, guilty.

On the issue of gun control, Kerry supports a citizen's right to own a gun, but also supported the ban on assault weapons and its extension. George W. Bush also supports the right to own a gun. He supported the assault weapon ban, but has been accused of permitting it to expire without pushing for its renewal.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: The social issues. Tomorrow, health care, complicated business, our week of issues on Tuesday.

Ahead on the program tonight, campaigns through the ages from whistle stops to celebrity photo-ops in stills.

And a little bit later, morning papers. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, it's true that presidential campaigns are built upon words and issues. But it's also true that images play a crucial role in them as well. Tonight, we turn the lens on politics, a lens that stretches back more than an century. Douglas Schoen is a political consultant who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans. He's also the editor of a book about presidential elections, a story told in stills.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DOUGLAS SCHOEN, EDITOR, "ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL": This book is the history of American presidential campaigns through images. It's the story of how we campaign, how we choose our leaders. And, ultimately, it's the story of America.

Well, we started in 1860, because the two-party system basically evolved around the 1856 or 1860 election, with the Republicans holding the majority of the victories. Every campaign and every candidate since really the turn of the century took the so-called whistle stops tour. In an era where there was no television and radio was in its nascent form, this was an enormously important and earth-shattering undertaking.

You really get a sense as to the way the candidates presented themselves and in a certain sense the timeless traditions that ran through campaigns. And there were two images that strike me. The first was the picture of Lyndon Johnson in 1964 with his tie open, his hands on his head, sitting at his desk. And you just have a sense of a defeated man.

The other image -- and it's one that exists in stark contrast -- is the image of John F. Kennedy in 1960 relaxed, looking at himself on TV, the picture of supreme confidence. And those two images for me really evoke the men, the circumstances they faced, and ultimately a good part of who they are.

The whole point of this is that there's a lot of fun, that candidates kiss babies, meet sports stars, spend time with their friends and family on the train. People who start in the process keep coming back. Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920. He emerges as the president in 1932. Obviously, Richard Nixon lost in '60. He's elected in '68. John F. Kennedy tried to become vice president in 1956. He was elected president in '60. Al Gore tried to run for president in 1988. He's nominated for vice president in 1992.

And even Arnold Schwarzenegger was campaigning with the first George Bush in the 1988 election. And we all know what happened to him this year in California.

We found the Superman image. It was in the '76 or '80 election. And, really, what we were trying to do with that final image was to suggest that there is both an aspect of ritual. There's an aspect of finality and, frankly, an aspect of the absurd in the whole process.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: It's all there, isn't it?

Morning papers will wrap up the hour. We'll take a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(ROOSTER CROWING)

BROWN: Okeydokey, time to check morning papers around the country, around the world, some just fabulous stuff tonight. Oh, man, tomorrow morning for newspaper lovers is going to be great.

"The International Herald Tribune," published by "The New York Times." I expect a couple of these will be in "The Times" tomorrow. Michael Gordon, the chief military writer for "The Times," "How the Postwar Situation in Iraq Went Awry," the first of three articles. And I suspect they are fascinating. Also, "The Times"/CBS News poll is out. "Voters Fault Bush, But Are Wary of Kerry. Two Weeks to Go Before Election Finds the Race Tied." The CBS poll finds the president's approval rating at 44 percent. That's a very low number for an incumbent president. And that could -- well, it could lead to a Kerry victory. But it does not necessarily have to. We'll see.

"Washington Times." "Access to Polling Places Tightens. States Begin Early Voting as Rulings Take Effect." Barbara Bush was among those who voted early. And there's her husband, George H.W. there. Also, "Evangelicals Endeavor to Redeem the Vote," a look at the Christian right and their activity in this election season.

"The Duluth News Tribune." That would be Duluth, Minnesota, right, not Duluth, Georgia. Maybe there's other Duluths, but those are the two I know of. "Edwards' Visit" -- that's why they did it -- "Edwards' Visit Aims to Counter GOP Gains." The sense is that, in the Twin Cities, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Senator Kerry will run very well and, in the outlying areas, the suburbs, maybe not so well. And Duluth is way up north, almost to the Canadian border.

"Stars and Stripes" magazine -- no, newspaper. "Voting Starts in Florida. Bush Inches Up in Polls," the way our soldiers will get the news tomorrow.

"The Philadelphia Inquirer." "War Fuels Bush Visit," his visit to New Jersey, "Kerry Reply." "U.S. Faces Tough Options in Quest For Stable Iraq" also on the front page of "The Philadelphia Inquirer." I've it before. I'll say it again. I like this newspaper paper a lot.

"The Detroit News." "Auto Suppliers Sink Under Rising Costs." That's the big story up here. Down at the bottom, though, "Milliken Endorses Kerry." That's William Milliken, the former Republican governor of Michigan. So he becomes a Zell Miller of our time.

Burt County, Nebraska, "The Plaindealer," out early this week. This is actually Wednesday's edition, but it's important news. "Flu Shots Few in Burt County." Son of a gun.

The weather in Chicago tomorrow, according to "The Sun-Times," is "party gloomy."

We'll wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: The "AMERICAN MORNING" gang all back together. Soledad is back. And they're all in Chicago, did a terrific program today, and bet they will tomorrow, too, 7:00 a.m. Eastern. So join them.

We're in Atlanta tomorrow, 10:00 Eastern time. Wherever we are, we hope you'll join us.

Until then, good night for all of us at NEWSNIGHT.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com