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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown

What's Next in Iraq?; Republicans to Reshape Congress; What Will Bush's Second Term Be Like?

Aired November 03, 2004 - 22:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


AARON BROWN, HOST: We're joined now from Philadelphia by Trudy Rubin, the foreign affairs columnist for "The Philadelphia Inquirer" and the author of "Willful Blindness: The Bush Administration and Iraq," here in New York, Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. And his new book is called "Persian Puzzle: A California Between Iran and America."
And we're always glad to have them both here.

Ken, start with you.

The president's victory give him more latitude in Iraq than he's had up to this point?

KEN POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER: To a certain extent, absolutely.

BROWN: Does latitude matter, by the way?

POLLACK: Yes, I don't think that latitude is really the most important thing for the president. I think the answer there is, how are things are going to play out on the ground, particular this military campaign which they've started, supposed to finish up over the next two, three months before the elections?

BROWN: This is Fallujah, et al.

POLLACK: Fallujah, writ large, exactly.

BROWN: Yes.

POLLACK: Ramadi, a whole bunch of other places. They have got to make that country safer than it is if they're going to have any chance at pulling off these elections. And the elections have been key to their strategy for moving forward.

BROWN: Trudy, before we broaden this out, then, in that regard you're reasonably critical of the president's handling of all of this. Does a victory in Fallujah, Ramadi and the west, I mean, they're going to -- they clearly can win that battle.

TRUDY RUBIN, "THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER": Right.

BROWN: They could overpower the insurgents. The question is, do they create more problems in doing so? RUBIN: I think that's the bottom line. There has to be a political strategy that goes with the military strategy. The administration failed over the past year and a half to woo away those Sunni tribal leaders who aren't really together with the insurgents.

And unless they can convince those people that they've got a stake in the new Iraq, that they're not out of the game because they're Sunni, which was Saddam's support group, then the insurgents are just going to come back again somewhere else. And the Sunnis won't give them up.

BROWN: How do you do that? I mean, is it -- do you write them a check?

RUBIN: No. I think that the key is convincing them that there's a political role for them. One thing that Prime Minister Allawi was interested in doing was bringing back several divisions of the old Iraqi army. It was a Sunni institution. Now, he would have vetted out the bad guys with blood on their hands.

But it seems the Pentagon wasn't interested in that idea. They want a new army from scratch. But one has to give these Sunni tribal leaders the idea that they've got a role in institutions, that they will get a percentage of the political power.

BROWN: There's only so much political power to go around. I want to step back a little bit here. Stay in the region, though.

Have the problems, Ken, in Iraq, and you know, there's no point in sugar coating this stuff. This post-war period has gone not well. Has it made it harder for the -- for the president to actually execute the Bush doctrine in other places, if he were so inclined? Like, let's say, oh, Iran.

POLLACK: Absolutely. In fact, what you see today is a very different Iranian perception than what you saw a year ago. A year ago or so, the Iranians were quite concerned. They were afraid they were going to be next. Not so today.

BROWN: Because?

POLLACK: Because the Iranians think that the U.S. is so badly bogged down in Iraq that there is no chance that the United States could use force against Iran. And they're not necessarily wrong.

BROWN: Setting aside, Trudy, the question of whether using force in Iran would be a good idea or a truly horrible idea, and I suppose you could make both cases if you were so inclined, do the Iranians -- do the Iranians believe, in your view, that some day, not this day, some day they will, in fact, be attacked? And is that motivating them to find those nuclear weapons?

RUBIN: Well, I think that the question is whether the Bush administration really has given up the idea of regime change in Iran. You certainly hear a lot of talk about it from figures close to the administration and in -- even in the administration, the idea of the possibility of bombing Iraq's nuclear facilities if they do not stop their enrichment program, which the U.S. believes is headed towards producing a bomb.

So I think the question is what's in the minds of the administration? Some figures inside of the administration think Iran is ripe for revolution, and if we gave it a push, the people would rise up. But you heard the same kind of things said about Iraq.

BROWN: Yes. Just -- last question, each of you, 10 seconds each. Do you think four years from now in the presidential campaign Iraq will be a live issue? Ken?

POLLACK: Yes. I do.

BROWN: OK. Trudy, four years from now do you think Iraq will be a live issue in the presidential campaign?

RUBIN: I think within four years either we're going to stabilize it or we're going to have to get out.

BROWN: Good to see you.

RUBIN: Thanks.

BROWN: Thank you both. Ken, nice to see you.

POLLACK: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you.

And on the program, how exit polling got the story wrong. Not as bad as you might think, but it didn't nail it, either. How the media played it. We'll turn the lens on ourselves.

The "Brown Table" joins us, too. We'll finally find out what their predictions were the other night. Take a break first. From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We are humbly reminded today of that first rule of computing: garbage in, garbage out. In a few words, that explains how the first wave of exit polls yesterday set the stage for some of the early reporting and a lot of the early reactions.

In fact, we were warned that the sample was weighted more heavily female, for example, a sign of trouble. Mostly, TV networks believed; often, the Internet did not. Here's the media story from Howard Kurtz.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES" (voice-over): As word of the exit polls began spreading Tuesday across the nation's newsrooms and across such Internet sites as the Drudge Report and Slate, the presidential race was, at least briefly, looking pretty good for John Kerry.

And there were hints of that in the television coverage.

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": And it's an uphill climb in Ohio. It hasn't been lost yet. But I think the Republicans have got to count on possibly losing Ohio.

SUSAN ESTRICH, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: What you have to say right now is that either the exit polls by and large are completely wrong or George Bush loses.

KURTZ: But while no one made the kind of blunder we all remember from 2000...

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.

KURTZ: ... the initial exit polls were, once again, off base. Or at least, far enough off base to convince many journalists that President Bush was in deep trouble.

Could that have had an impact on people who were still considering whether to vote? It's hard to know for sure.

(on camera) The problem is that the initial morning wave of exit polling was pretty raw stuff, not yet adjusted for the voting population or the flood of absentee ballots.

And by the time the later waves were ready to be sent out, the system crashed for as much as an hour.

(voice-over) Meanwhile, as the actual votes came in and Bush began building a lead in Florida, the tone of the coverage shifted to reflect, not exit poll projections but real world numbers.

CARVILLE: One never wants to give up, but one has to be a realist. And tonight doesn't seem to be a very good night.

KURTZ: But the networks were cautious, remarkably cautious, considering how competitive the business is in making predictions.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST, "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS": The last thing we at CNN would ever want to do again is call a state for a president -- for a presidential candidate and have to retract is later.

KURTZ: And with Ohio hanging in the balance, network anchors remained cautious until 12:41 Wednesday morning, when Fox News' Brit Hume projected Bush the winner in Ohio, bringing him just one measly electoral vote from victory.

NBC followed suit at 1 a.m.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: This race is all but over. President Bush is our projected winner in the state of Ohio.

KURTZ: But unlike four years ago, when everyone jumped on the Bush bandwagon within minutes, the other networks refused to be stampeded.

DAN RATHER, CBS NEWS ANCHOR: Yes, we're aware that in some other quarters, perhaps they have decided that they can project it as a winner, but we have to go by our own rules, our own traditions of being -- we'd rather be last than to be wrong.

KURTZ: Brokaw says NBC decided not to call any more states to avoid anointing a president-elect.

Despite the two network projections, nearly all newspapers went with carefully hedged headlines. Fortunately for the news business, John Kerry took everyone off the hook by conceding this morning.

In the new media Zeitgeist, being second or third or fourth is not such a bad thing, at least compared to making an early call that turns out to be wrong.

Howard Kurtz, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: I was watching that thinking that may very well be -- last time -- the last time, the big three anchors, Dan, Tom and Peter, anchoring election night.

Anyway, "Brown Table" is next. Collectively, they spent too many hours covering the campaign. They'll probably be glad when this one's over, too. Nina Easton, Terry Neal and John Harwood.

When last we talked, I said write down on a slip of paper who you think is going to win. John, you were kind enough to actually mail me yours, e-mail me yours, so I know what you wrote. But I'm still going to make you say it on TV.

John, who'd you pick?

JOHN HARWOOD, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL": I picked John Kerry. I believed all that stuff about incumbents being below 50 percent in their job approval ratings and in their pre-election surveys not being able to get there. And there were Republicans as well as Democrats telling me that their campaign experience suggested that.

So I was right about one thing, though, Aaron. I told you we were going to have a result before I went to bed, and I haven't gone to bed yet. And we've got a result.

BROWN: That's good. You're batting 50 percent. That's very good.

Nina, who'd you pick?

NINA EASTON, "THE BOSTON GLOBE": I picked Kerry. But look, last night's election was a clear victory for George Bush. Three million plus popular votes. This is a vote that you have to go back to 1988 to get a majority that looks like what George Bush won last night.

BROWN: Why did you pick Kerry, then?

EASTON: Well, I think -- I think at the time the undecideds looked like they were -- they were very much the type that would lean towards Kerry, more secular, more moderate. I expected that there was so much anger towards George Bush.

But what I didn't see, and what I think a lot of us didn't recognize was that there really is a conservative embrace of George Bush in this country. So that a lot of this -- this -- when the Bush machine labeled John Kerry as a liberal and we sort of -- I thought that was kind of outdated, that that really wouldn't work, that sort of liberal Massachusetts label.

In fact, that turned out to be catnip for the base. And that was a very strong motivator. And in a lot of the exit polls, we saw people saying that moral issues were what they were voting on. It wasn't just terrorism, and it wasn't just the economy. It was moral issues.

BROWN: I want to come back to that. Let me get Terry -- Terry's pick into this. I will tell you this -- I didn't bring my little slip of paper up, but after we talked, I wrote down George Bush, just so you know.

Terry, who'd you pick?

TERRY NEAL, WASHINGTONPOST.COM: Well, let me just set it up by saying I'm always really reluctant to talk about this, because there are a lot of people who, when they hear journalists talk about predictions often can't tell the difference between prediction and a desire. And this was really -- came back to haunt me a little bit in 2000. I was covering the campaign for the "Post."

And Alexandra Pelosi, who made the documentary, came and put a camera in my face and said, "Who do you think is going to win?"

And I said, "Bush." And one of the -- and it sort of got out there on the Web.

BROWN: Who'd you pick, Terry?

NEAL: I picked Kerry. I picked Kerry. I thought -- I thought -- and for a lot of the same reasons that John did, but also because I felt that there was more intensity. Not that people don't like George W. Bush, but that -- that the hatred was more of a motivating factor than love. And I thought that, combined with the fact that Bush was under 50 percent, would push Kerry over. I thought it would be close, but I thought Kerry would win.

BROWN: All right. John, I want to go back to you. I'm going to throw a theory out and let you all weigh in if you think it has any validity at all.

There was, to me, in this campaign the kind of underlying feeling that because of 9/11, the people felt a certain loss of control over their own lives. Jobs are being outsourced. It's an economic loss of control. Security, loss of control.

The one thing they feel like they can control are the values that center them. Which is why, in this theory, values rose so high.

HARWOOD: I don't know, Aaron. You know, I think that that values cross tab on the exit polls really is a proxy for identity politics. And people -- identity politics has been driving American voting choices for 40 years.

BROWN: Explain what you mean...

HARWOOD: It's not much different this time.

BROWN: Explain what you mean by identity politics.

HARWOOD: Well, people tend to support people who they feel are like them. And so when you say values, for a large chunk of people, especially conservative Christians, that means somebody like me. And that's why you see these -- do you go to church services once a week or more? If you do, very lopsidedly on the Republican side. If you don't, lopsidedly on the Democratic side.

I want to make one other point, though, about this value. Everyone's getting excited about values because that came out on the top of that issue ranking. We had a discussion about class around this "Brown Table" the other day.

BROWN: Yes.

HARWOOD: Don't forget the class dimension. If you look on these exit polls, if this election were conducted of people who made under $100,000, John Kerry would have won. George W. Bush racked up a big margin among people who made over $100,000. So don't forget the economic component of this, too.

Tax cuts mattered for him, and the -- the economic interests of people who have a lot of money, they associate those with the Republican Party. And that's an asset for them.

BROWN: Nina, are you surprised -- again, this is my observation here -- that Senator Kerry ran a very risk averse campaign? Is that consistent with who he is? You literally wrote the book on him.

EASTON: He is an extremely cautious man at the end of the day. And I think one of the -- one of the issues that keep coming back to is his vote on Iraq.

BROWN: Yes.

EASTON: I mean, this was a vote that he took, really, really very much in light of the election that he had to face. He was advised by the people around him that the way to run in a general election against a Republican candidate was to authorize a -- you know, authorize this resolution to go to war.

In fact, it really ran counter to the John Kerry of many years, who typically opposed controversial military interventions. So I think he was cautious there.

He was also actually cautious on his choice of John Edwards, which I don't think John Edwards particularly, at the end of the day, added much to the ticket.

The other interesting thing, and I go back to this, this question of can -- was there -- was there something wrong with the candidate or the candidacy? Could a liberal from Massachusetts really make a mark in a very conservative country? And would a Dick Gephardt, for example, have done better?

Dick Gephardt was somebody who actually scared the Republicans early on.

BROWN: Yes.

EASTON: The prospect of a Dick Gephardt candidacy. When we look back and say, "Well, maybe that would have worked better."

But you know, it's interesting. I mean, this was a president who was roiled (ph) by a very unpopular and deadly war in Iraq, an economy with job losses at home. I mean, he was -- he was a vulnerable candidate. And the fact that John Kerry was not able to beat him, it really raises questions about either the candidate or the candidacy.

BROWN: Well, both. Thank you all -- thank you all for your work over the last month. And I'm sure we'll talk to you again. Thank you.

Ahead on the program, we'll go to the bench, the Supreme Court, to look at how that is likely to change and what that might mean in the second Bush term. We break first. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We return now to what next? One of the most far-reaching powers every president has is the power to appoint federal and Supreme Court justices.

Since announcing he's being treated with thyroid cancer, Chief Justice U.S. Supreme Court William Rehnquist has not returned to the bench. It's all but certain the president will have an opportunity to appoint at least one, perhaps several justices in his second term, perhaps before it begins.

What's next is likely to be contentious.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): We've seen it before: Clarence Thomas confronted by allegations of impropriety.

JUSTICE CLARENCE THOMAS, U.S. SUPREME COURT: As far as I'm concerned, it is a high-tech lynching for uppity blacks.

BROWN: Attacks so harsh that Borking became a verb in the political lexicon.

SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: In Robert Bork's America, there is no room at the end for blacks and no place in the Constitution for women. And in our America, there should be no seat on the Supreme Court for Robert Bork.

BROWN: The troops are already preparing for the next Supreme Court nomination. And they don't agree on much, but they do agree on this: we are likely to see it all over again.

BOYDEN GRAY, CHAIRMAN, COMMITTEE FOR JUSTICE: There will be a fight. You can almost count on it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, a firestorm of opposition, not just in the Senate but in the country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am looking at a case decided by Judge Wilkinson, who's been listed on several of the media short lists, where there's being put forth, President Bush (ph).

BROWN: As the liberal Alliance for Justice lawyers are combing through the legal briefs and speeches, looking for signs that a nominee is too conservative. And not coincidentally, gathering ammunition for a challenge in the Senate.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's not Borking. It's providing critical information to people about an individual who will be making decisions that affect their lives. Not just for four years but perhaps the next 40 years.

BROWN: In the second Bush term, it's expected that at least one and possibly three new Supreme Court justices will be appointed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's likely to be more restriction on abortion. There's likely to be less affirmative action. There's likely to be more involvement with the government in religion.

BROWN: But even with more Senate seats going to Republicans, after the election the Democrats will still have enough votes to block a candidate, to filibuster. They've done it before, in the lower courts.

SEAN RUSHTON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, COMMITTEE FOR JUSTICE: The sense was we're getting -- our side was getting its clock cleaned, and we need somebody who's kind of here as a constant force to monitor this and to rebut it. It's basically a truth squad.

BROWN: Conservatives like Sean Rushton describe liberal activist groups as expert judge killers, and under former White House counsel Boyden Gray, have organized to fight back.

GRAY: It's a political campaign just like any other political campaign. And it can get as nasty as any ordinary political campaign.

BROWN: Important as it is, this is not just about who gets control of the U.S. Supreme Court. Senate Democrats complain that President Clinton's judicial candidates were unfairly blocked and so have filibustered to stall some conservative nominees of President Bush.

The president responded by appointing two controversial judges during congressional vacations, so-called recess appointments, the legality of which is being appealed to the Supreme Court.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Place to start a conversation with Robert George, columnist from the "New York Post," and from Washington tonight, Pulitzer Prize winning author, historian and journalist, Haynes Johnson.

Nice to see you both.

HAYNES JOHNSON, AUTHOR/HISTORIAN: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: The way they're talking specifically about the court -- let me start with you, here, Mr. George. Do you expect Bush two, term two, to be as conservative -- although I'm not sure you would -- you'd necessarily buy the first part of that, that it was conservative -- as the first term?

ROBERT GEORGE, COLUMNIST, "NEW YORK POST": I think -- I think it will -- I would like it to be more traditionally conservative.

BROWN: More fiscally conservative?

GEORGE: Fiscally conservative, indeed. And he -- he didn't -- he didn't veto anything on spending -- on spending for example...

BROWN: No.

GEORGE: ... in the first term. And I'd like to think that because he has a little bit more latitude, he has a clear mandate now. He's got the popular vote. He's got more -- more Republican Senators, more in the House. He can actually govern as a fiscal conservative, as well.

BROWN: I want to come back to that. Haynes, do you think it is likely to be a -- as conservative a president as there was, or free from the need to play to his base, he can take this where he wants to take it?

JOHNSON: Well, every president in the second term has this dream of Mount Rushmore. They're going to be up there. They don't have to run again. It's wonderful. And they can do what they want, they think.

But the trouble is it's very seductive, because they don't have much time. And second terms can be very seductive and cruel to them, because they can misread the country and they can push too hard.

We still (ph) had an example today of one of the rare, really eloquent statements by both Bush and Kerry, about going to the middle, helping each other, not polarizing the country. The country desperately wants that. We're coming off a very badly divided country. But it's going to be hard to continue that.

It's going to be fascinating to see what Mr. Bush does with his opportunity. He does have an opportunity, but also could be very tragically wrong if he goes too far.

GEORGE: Well, one -- one thing that he has that -- that say neither a Bill Clinton nor Ronald Reagan had in their second terms is he has -- both chambers of Congress.

BROWN: He has a Congress that's trying to help him.

GEORGE: That's exactly right. And that's why, I mean, I think he wants to...

BROWN: Good point.

GEORGE: I think -- I think he wants to start an ambitious agenda.

BROWN: Here's -- here's the thing. The president, again, people can like the -- like his positions or not, is a guy of large goals, big ideas.

He didn't -- he wants to change dramatically Social Security. He hadn't been very clear on how that's actually going to be paid forwards with something he wants to do.

He talked about tax reform, simplifying the tax code, without really talking about what that meant.

But these are big, grand ideas. Can you do big, grand ideas in a second term which -- in some respects, really only has two years before the campaign is on?

GEORGE: Well, that's a good question. And I think -- I think you can. And again, unlike -- unlike his most recent predecessors, he's got a -- he's got a changed dynamic. He's got a clear political dynamic which he can -- which he can take -- which he can take advantage of.

And I'd like to think that the Democrats, I believe, are going to be a little bit warier of trying to block him procedurally, because he now has a 3.5 million plus advantage on -- in terms of popular votes to, in a sense, take to the people.

BROWN: Haynes, both as historian and journalist, are the Democrats likely to roll over for this guy, or say, "Hey, we got 49 percent of the vote"?

JOHNSON: No, they're not going to at all, Aaron. In fact, nor should they. They ought to be very careful the way they handle it, obviously. But they -- they have to sort of stand up for what they believe, if they know what they believe in. But they're not going to roll over. And the problem is, there's very little time, realistically, for a president in a second term. He's there and he's got only a few months to move, really, to the center or to try a few big ideas. And the time, the clock is ticking.

And this president, whether it was going to be Bush again or Kerry, I believe, and I've thought for a year, was going to have a terribly difficult second term because of all the problems we've talked about. The war in Iraq is not going to go away. The clock is ticking on the deficit. We have problems here at home. We're badly divided.

All the more reason to what Kerry and Bush said today, going to the center, trying to be -- remove the hatred in the country. That's going to be difficult.

BROWN: Well, it's what we'll watch for awhile and we'll talk about coming up, I think, in the next few weeks. Good to see you both. Thanks for coming in. I know everyone's tired tonight. Thank you.

GEORGE: Thank you. Thank you.

JOHNSON: Good night, Aaron.

BROWN: Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, candidates weren't the only things on the ballot, or the only ones on the ballot. There were lots of issues out there. We talked gay marriage, marijuana in three states on the ballot, gambling in lots of places. Winners and losers after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This evening on "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT," Jeff Greenfield described the current House of Representatives as the most agenda driven in recent memory. In January, it will be all that and even more firmly in the control of the Republicans. Same goes for the Senate, though parliamentary procedural limits the majority's power there somewhat.

That said, the days of divided government now seem like ancient history.

Reporting for us tonight, CNN's Ed Henry.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senate Republicans broke out the champagne after a stunning sweep on election night. Republicans see it as a repudiation of Democratic efforts to block President Bush's agenda. Their biggest prize: beating the Democratic leader, Tom Daschle.

SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (VA), NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE: The message to the Democrats is stop the obstruction, stop the pass interference, stop the delays. Stop the filibustering. Move forward. Get through the elections. And act for the American people.

HENRY: A much different scene in South Dakota.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D-SD), MINORITY LEADER: My family had been at the base, and I have been at the base of Mount Rushmore as the sun rises. Those colors are warm and sweet and optimistic. Having seen sunsets and sunrises, I like sunrises better.

HENRY: Majority leader Bill Frist flew around the country to celebrate with his winning candidates. Republicans picked up four Senate seats. That gives Frist 55 seats, making it easier to push through the president's second term agenda: more tax cuts, conservative judges, tort reform and an energy bill.

SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN), MAJORITY LEADER: A comprehensive energy policy. We lost it by one vote on the floor of the United States Senate, at a time when the price of oil is $50 a barrel and gasoline is almost at record levels.

HENRY: Democrats were stunned after also losing seats in the House and falling short in the presidential fight.

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: We have now lost just about everything that we can lose.

HENRY: They will now try to pick up the pieces, starting with a new leader to replace Daschle. That's likely to be Harry Reed of Nevada.

Democratic strategists say the party needs to walk a fine line: agree with the president some but fight back, as well.

JACK QUINN, FORMER CLINTON WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: By working with the president, among other things, and when they can't work with the president, by standing up and expressing their disagreements with him clearly, forcefully, and with respect.

HENRY (on camera): It looks like Senate Democrats, at least for now, are taking a more conciliatory approach to their relationship with President Bush. Harry Reid is known as somebody who works across the aisle with Republicans.

Ed Henry, CNN, Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: As for now, that would be 24 hours after the election. The initiative process is either an example that our democracy works or that it doesn't. I've never been sure.

In either case, there were a lot of initiatives and referenda last night, from gay marriage to the allocating of electoral votes to gambling to pot. A sample of how they played out now.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) BROWN (voice-over): Supporters broke into victory cheers in Oregon as Measure 36 passed, a measure banning gay marriage. Opponents, on the other hand, wept and promised to fight on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: True love cannot be defeated.

BROWN: Across the nation, 11 states had ballot measures banning marriage between people of the same sex, and every one of them passed, and every one of them passed by a large margin.

In eight states, the ban extends to other forms of civil unions and partnership rights. Supporters said it was a vote for traditional values.

GEORGINE RICE, YES ON 36 CAMPAIGN: Most people didn't see this as a referendum on gay and lesbian issues. They saw this as an issue of marriage.

BROWN: Christian activists told CNN that the state vote showed strong support for a national marriage amendment. Gay activists promised immediate legal challenges.

JACK SENTERFITT, PLAINTIFF'S ATTORNEY: We believe very strongly that this amendment is unconstitutional.

BROWN: Across the country, there were 163 ballot measures last night. Alaska and Oregon voted against loosening their marijuana laws. Montana voted for medical marijuana use.

And Arizona passed a controversial amendment that will crack down on illegal immigrants. This one will end up in the courts.

But it was California, the home of the voter initiative, that had the biggest night, as Governor Schwarzenegger declared victory.

GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: This is what I love about election day, because when the people flex their muscles, then the state gets much stronger.

BROWN: The governor fended off initiatives that would have made all companies provide health insurance for their employees and eased California's tough three-strike sentencing guidelines.

He also pushed through a massive 10-year, $3 billion research program into embryonic stem cells that could put the Golden State in the forefront of medical research. But it also put Governor Schwarzenegger at odds with President Bush and social conservatives, who proved so influential in the fight against same-sex marriage.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Quick look at the initiatives from last night.

Coming up on the program, there's a University of Miami in Ohio. Really, there is. And based on yesterday's vote, there's reason to believe Ohio learned a lot from Miami four years ago. That story and more. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Turns out Ohio was more of a hiccup than a roadblock last night. Pundits predicted the Buckeye State would be the battleground, much like Florida was in 2000 over contested ballots. They were right, and they were wrong.

It was a battleground all right, but not for polling monitors and disputed votes. It was a battleground for the faithful that came out in droves because they believe: believe in a higher power, believe in President Bush.

Now it's safe to say they are a force, a considerable force to be reckoned with.

Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The headlines in Ohio screamed, "Cliffhanger."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We turned out not only young voters but...

LOTHIAN: Protesters screamed for every vote to be counted.

But in suburban Columbus, where manicured lawns were decorated with Bush/Cheney signs, loud amens from the evangelical faithful like Lynn Ramsbottom (ph).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why? I think he has a deep commitment.

LOTHIAN: Her vote tied to her strong belief in values.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that that can be the basis of more good things happening in the future.

LOTHIAN: In the mother of all battleground states, where a near record turnout stretched voting into the wee hours, a surprising and convincing showing by the Republican Party base, Christians who proudly wear their faith on bumper stickers next to "W" signs.

This car belongs to Bonnie and Lester Pifer, who say even with the war and worries about the economy, President Bush was the only choice because of what he believes.

LESTER PIFER, REPUBLICAN: We participated (ph) to his viewpoint on this stem cell issue.

BONNIE PIFER, REPUBLICAN: He conducted his campaign with grace and honesty. I like him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Accepting the holy Bible...

LOTHIAN: The evangelical community in this state is strong and, unlike 2000, more energized, in part, say some voters, because of the anti-gay marriage initiative which passed.

CHRISTY LEDTKE, PARISHIONER: Bush was so adamantly against that stuff.

PASTOR BILL SNELL, GRACE BRETHREN CHURCH: The family is basic to our country and its welfare. And so goes the family, so goes the nation.

LOTHIAN: In exit polling, 23 percent of Ohio voters surveyed said moral values was the most important issue. And of those people, 85 percent voted for Bush.

(on camera) But how did faith take a leap over the most pressing issue in this state: job losses? More than 200,000, mostly in the manufacturing sector, gone since President Bush took office.

PROFESSOR BERT ROCKMAN, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: We tend to associate rational voting with pocketbook voting, but rational voting could be a function of whatever your -- whatever is the most salient set of preferences you have.

LOTHIAN (voice-over): But driving her vintage VW, Gina Ginetti (ph), who is proud of her faith, isn't convinced. She voted not with her heart but with her pocketbook.

GINA GINETTI, DEMOCRATIC VOTER: Senior citizens, they need help with the medicine, with hospitalization. They're not getting enough help at all.

LOTHIAN: But evangelicals in this state say this election was a wakeup call.

SNELL: The heart and soul of America is much more biblically centered and God-centered than many people want to think. And this election brought them out by the thousands.

L. PIFER: We're thankful. We're thankful for what has taken place.

LOTHIAN: They believe their prayers were answered.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Columbus.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Well, Florida -- if Ohio, rather was the new Florida last night, the red state with the blue collar that provided the cliffhanger and ultimately decided the race, where does that leave the old Florida, which is Florida?

In spite of all the speculation and worry about what might happen in Florida this time around, history did not repeat itself.

Here's Susan Candiotti.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Come and vote! Every vote counts.

SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Turn out, turn out, turn out.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go, go, go!

CANDIOTTI: This year, nearly two million more Floridians went to the polls than in 2000, President Bush besting Senator Kerry by about five percentage points. Forget a mere 537 votes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hurry, go! You've got to be in line. If you're in line at 7, you get to vote!

CANDIOTTI: Strong Bush support came from those who credit his faith-based values and anti-abortion stand, say exit polls.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Never been more proud of my president, somebody who will stand up and confess that he loves God and pray and I'm proud of him.

CANDIOTTI: Regular churchgoers also came out for Bush in big numbers, up nearly 70 percent over 2000.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why people like Bush, because Bush is openly religious.

CANDIOTTI: The Latino vote, about 52 to 44 percent, helped push Bush over the top, as predicted, especially along the I-4 corridor across central Florida.

JAMES COOK, REPUBLICAN VOLUNTEER: Family values, hard work, you know, the American dream. And that's where the Hispanic community is, and that's what we offered them.

CANDIOTTI: In Osceola County, where Al Gore won four years ago, Bush won easily here. A third of the voters were Hispanic. And Bush won a majority among them.

COOK: But it will be somewhere 50's, in the upper 50's.

CANDIOTTI: CNN exit polls show the war on terror was overwhelmingly the key issue for Bush Florida backers. The war in Iraq, only 25 percent.

The president's brother sees it this way.

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: I think there's a belief in our state that it's -- it was inappropriate to change leaders during a time of crisis, a time of war. And the president clearly, I think, explained to the voters of this state that we were -- we are at war. Senator Kerry couldn't quite get there.

CANDIOTTI: This Kerry supporter, who flew all the way from Alaska to volunteer in Florida, is circumspect.

DAN LASOTA, KERRY SUPPORTER: There's one consolation, that I wasn't sitting home and doing nothing. At least I gave it my all.

CANDIOTTI (on camera): Governor Jeb Bush admits his brother faces a divided nation. As he put it, the president will have to reach out and soothe the wounds, adding, "I know he will do it."

Susan Candiotti, CNN, Orlando, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead, an update on the non-election news of the day. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: A quick look now at some of the other stories making news around the world today.

Hamid Karzai, officially Afghan -- Afghanistan's first freely elected president. Karzai was named interim leader after U.S. forces defeated the Taliban. An election held last month, Karzai getting over 50 percent of the vote. That's how it works in an election.

In Paris, there are conflicting reports about just how sick Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is. And Israeli newspaper claiming Arafat's health has seriously deteriorated. Sources close to the Palestinian leader deny that report but acknowledge he continues to undergo treatment.

In Iraq, another video of Margaret Hassan has been released, though it is said to be too graphic to air. The insurgents holding her are threatening to turn her over to a group that has beheaded several other hostages already. Hassan heads up CARE in Iraq, or did.

Redwood City, California, after months of testimony, hundreds of witnesses and countless cable TV programs, the jury finally has the Scott Peterson case. They began deliberating today.

And as for the election, here's a look back at some of today's defining moments. Not only did President Bush win the electoral vote; he also won the popular vote by more than three million. Mr. Bush got almost 59 million votes across the country, 51 percent. Senator John Kerry, 55,300,000, 48 percent of the vote. Ralph Nader one percent of the vote and probably planning his next campaign.

When Senator Kerry offered his concession speech in Boston this afternoon, he said he'd called the president and congratulated him. He also said it was time for America to come together after a long and bitter campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I did my best to express my vision and my hopes for America. We worked hard and we fought hard. And I wish that things had turned out a little differently. But in an American election, there are no losers. Because whether or not our candidates are successful, the next morning, we all wake up as Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Senator Kerry in Boston today.

During his victory speech in Washington, the president also talked about bringing the country together, the sort of thing you say on a day like this.

He thanked a record number of voters who helped turn out the vote that put him back in the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want to thank the thousands of our supporters across our country. I want to thank you for your hugs on the rope lines. I want to thank you for your prayers on the rope lines. I want to thank you for your kind words on the rope lines.

I want to thank you for everything you did to make the calls and to put up the signs, to talk to your neighbors and to get out the vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: The day. The day in "Morning Papers," after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, time to check "Morning Papers" from around the country and around the world. The headline is the same. The story is the same. The headline isn't the same, otherwise this would be a completely dumb segment to do, wouldn't it? I think it would.

"International Herald Tribune," published by "The New York Times" in Paris, "Bush Wins Second Term By a Solid Margin. Battle Ends Quietly as Kerry Concedes." A couple of other things. I like this, just an analysis piece, "Kerry Failed to Connect on the Economy."

I wonder if there's more than that. It just seemed to me that the senator campaigned hard but he failed to connect on a lot of things. And that's an interesting problem for the Democrats if I'm right. I may not be.

"Washington Times," "Four More Years. Proud Bush Declares Mandate." Keep that headline in mind, OK? "Proud Bush Declares Mandate." And they also put on the front page, "Producing a Hollywood Flop. A List Support for Kerry Failed." A very "Washington Times" sort of story on the front page: George Soros, Springsteen, Michael Moore, Eminem, you got it.

"The Philadelphia" -- I'm sorry, the "Cincinnati Inquirer -- Enquirer," "Bush Prevails. Ohio Finally Pushes Him Over the Top." So they got themselves a hometown story, and they play it that way. "Philadelphia Inquirer," "America Has Spoken. In Victory, Bush Speaks of New Chance to Reach Out to Divided Nation." OK, now down -- remember we talked about mandate. Go down to the corner here. "Caution: Specter Says President Has No Mandate." That would be Republican Senator Arlen Specter.

You think he's getting a call from anybody today, saying, "Don't be saying that no mandate thing"?

"Miami Herald," "President Bush." Pretty simple, straightforward headline. "GOP Wins Firm Control of National Agenda." It does have that. "Pledge to Reach Out in the Next Term."

They always say that. I don't know if they actually ever -- actually do it. But there you go.

"Boston Herald," Senator's hometown paper, though it rarely has anything nice to say about Senator Kerry, "Dems in Disarray." Seemed like a good way to put -- reason to put Hillary Clinton on the front page, too. "Look to Hill as Savior." I'm not sure what this story's about, this one, "Town Snubs Hero's Widow."

That's probably -- the front page of a tabloid doesn't always help you much.

The -- "The Oregonian," out in Portland, Oregon, "Bush Calls for Unity. President Reaches Out for Those Who Voted for Kerry. Voters Again Prove Oregon is in Neither Party's Pocket." That is the truth. A very independent state.

The "Rocky Mountain News," I love this picture. It's just a great -- I don't know who shot this. It's a wonderful picture of the president, though, isn't it? "America Has Spoken." The "Rocky Mountain News" in Denver, Colorado. State went for the president.

The "Detroit News." It's right in front of me. I don't know why I paused there. "Bush Vows to Unify a Divided Country" is their headline. "Moral Issues Pay Off for Bush. The president was able to draw voters who trust him" -- who trust him. It seems like the sort of thing you have to do to get somebody to vote for you.

Fifteen seconds. Where's my "Sun-Times"? Here it is. We'll end it with the "Sun-Times." They lead, of course, with the president. Down here, "Cops: Blackmail Targeted TV Anchor."

So I was talking to Bill O'Reilly. I said, "I've got to stop" -- they've got to stop suing us, whatever it is.

Weather tomorrow in Chicago, ain't no sunshine. We'll wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, that's it for tonight. Two hours seems like plenty, doesn't it? We'll go back to an hour tomorrow, I promise. Good to have you with us, so until tomorrow, 10 p.m. Eastern Time, goodnight for all of us.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com


Aired November 3, 2004 - 22:59   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: We're joined now from Philadelphia by Trudy Rubin, the foreign affairs columnist for "The Philadelphia Inquirer" and the author of "Willful Blindness: The Bush Administration and Iraq," here in New York, Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. And his new book is called "Persian Puzzle: A California Between Iran and America."
And we're always glad to have them both here.

Ken, start with you.

The president's victory give him more latitude in Iraq than he's had up to this point?

KEN POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER: To a certain extent, absolutely.

BROWN: Does latitude matter, by the way?

POLLACK: Yes, I don't think that latitude is really the most important thing for the president. I think the answer there is, how are things are going to play out on the ground, particular this military campaign which they've started, supposed to finish up over the next two, three months before the elections?

BROWN: This is Fallujah, et al.

POLLACK: Fallujah, writ large, exactly.

BROWN: Yes.

POLLACK: Ramadi, a whole bunch of other places. They have got to make that country safer than it is if they're going to have any chance at pulling off these elections. And the elections have been key to their strategy for moving forward.

BROWN: Trudy, before we broaden this out, then, in that regard you're reasonably critical of the president's handling of all of this. Does a victory in Fallujah, Ramadi and the west, I mean, they're going to -- they clearly can win that battle.

TRUDY RUBIN, "THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER": Right.

BROWN: They could overpower the insurgents. The question is, do they create more problems in doing so? RUBIN: I think that's the bottom line. There has to be a political strategy that goes with the military strategy. The administration failed over the past year and a half to woo away those Sunni tribal leaders who aren't really together with the insurgents.

And unless they can convince those people that they've got a stake in the new Iraq, that they're not out of the game because they're Sunni, which was Saddam's support group, then the insurgents are just going to come back again somewhere else. And the Sunnis won't give them up.

BROWN: How do you do that? I mean, is it -- do you write them a check?

RUBIN: No. I think that the key is convincing them that there's a political role for them. One thing that Prime Minister Allawi was interested in doing was bringing back several divisions of the old Iraqi army. It was a Sunni institution. Now, he would have vetted out the bad guys with blood on their hands.

But it seems the Pentagon wasn't interested in that idea. They want a new army from scratch. But one has to give these Sunni tribal leaders the idea that they've got a role in institutions, that they will get a percentage of the political power.

BROWN: There's only so much political power to go around. I want to step back a little bit here. Stay in the region, though.

Have the problems, Ken, in Iraq, and you know, there's no point in sugar coating this stuff. This post-war period has gone not well. Has it made it harder for the -- for the president to actually execute the Bush doctrine in other places, if he were so inclined? Like, let's say, oh, Iran.

POLLACK: Absolutely. In fact, what you see today is a very different Iranian perception than what you saw a year ago. A year ago or so, the Iranians were quite concerned. They were afraid they were going to be next. Not so today.

BROWN: Because?

POLLACK: Because the Iranians think that the U.S. is so badly bogged down in Iraq that there is no chance that the United States could use force against Iran. And they're not necessarily wrong.

BROWN: Setting aside, Trudy, the question of whether using force in Iran would be a good idea or a truly horrible idea, and I suppose you could make both cases if you were so inclined, do the Iranians -- do the Iranians believe, in your view, that some day, not this day, some day they will, in fact, be attacked? And is that motivating them to find those nuclear weapons?

RUBIN: Well, I think that the question is whether the Bush administration really has given up the idea of regime change in Iran. You certainly hear a lot of talk about it from figures close to the administration and in -- even in the administration, the idea of the possibility of bombing Iraq's nuclear facilities if they do not stop their enrichment program, which the U.S. believes is headed towards producing a bomb.

So I think the question is what's in the minds of the administration? Some figures inside of the administration think Iran is ripe for revolution, and if we gave it a push, the people would rise up. But you heard the same kind of things said about Iraq.

BROWN: Yes. Just -- last question, each of you, 10 seconds each. Do you think four years from now in the presidential campaign Iraq will be a live issue? Ken?

POLLACK: Yes. I do.

BROWN: OK. Trudy, four years from now do you think Iraq will be a live issue in the presidential campaign?

RUBIN: I think within four years either we're going to stabilize it or we're going to have to get out.

BROWN: Good to see you.

RUBIN: Thanks.

BROWN: Thank you both. Ken, nice to see you.

POLLACK: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you.

And on the program, how exit polling got the story wrong. Not as bad as you might think, but it didn't nail it, either. How the media played it. We'll turn the lens on ourselves.

The "Brown Table" joins us, too. We'll finally find out what their predictions were the other night. Take a break first. From New York, this is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We are humbly reminded today of that first rule of computing: garbage in, garbage out. In a few words, that explains how the first wave of exit polls yesterday set the stage for some of the early reporting and a lot of the early reactions.

In fact, we were warned that the sample was weighted more heavily female, for example, a sign of trouble. Mostly, TV networks believed; often, the Internet did not. Here's the media story from Howard Kurtz.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "RELIABLE SOURCES" (voice-over): As word of the exit polls began spreading Tuesday across the nation's newsrooms and across such Internet sites as the Drudge Report and Slate, the presidential race was, at least briefly, looking pretty good for John Kerry.

And there were hints of that in the television coverage.

ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST, "CROSSFIRE": And it's an uphill climb in Ohio. It hasn't been lost yet. But I think the Republicans have got to count on possibly losing Ohio.

SUSAN ESTRICH, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: What you have to say right now is that either the exit polls by and large are completely wrong or George Bush loses.

KURTZ: But while no one made the kind of blunder we all remember from 2000...

JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS": A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column.

KURTZ: ... the initial exit polls were, once again, off base. Or at least, far enough off base to convince many journalists that President Bush was in deep trouble.

Could that have had an impact on people who were still considering whether to vote? It's hard to know for sure.

(on camera) The problem is that the initial morning wave of exit polling was pretty raw stuff, not yet adjusted for the voting population or the flood of absentee ballots.

And by the time the later waves were ready to be sent out, the system crashed for as much as an hour.

(voice-over) Meanwhile, as the actual votes came in and Bush began building a lead in Florida, the tone of the coverage shifted to reflect, not exit poll projections but real world numbers.

CARVILLE: One never wants to give up, but one has to be a realist. And tonight doesn't seem to be a very good night.

KURTZ: But the networks were cautious, remarkably cautious, considering how competitive the business is in making predictions.

WOLF BLITZER, HOST, "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS": The last thing we at CNN would ever want to do again is call a state for a president -- for a presidential candidate and have to retract is later.

KURTZ: And with Ohio hanging in the balance, network anchors remained cautious until 12:41 Wednesday morning, when Fox News' Brit Hume projected Bush the winner in Ohio, bringing him just one measly electoral vote from victory.

NBC followed suit at 1 a.m.

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: This race is all but over. President Bush is our projected winner in the state of Ohio.

KURTZ: But unlike four years ago, when everyone jumped on the Bush bandwagon within minutes, the other networks refused to be stampeded.

DAN RATHER, CBS NEWS ANCHOR: Yes, we're aware that in some other quarters, perhaps they have decided that they can project it as a winner, but we have to go by our own rules, our own traditions of being -- we'd rather be last than to be wrong.

KURTZ: Brokaw says NBC decided not to call any more states to avoid anointing a president-elect.

Despite the two network projections, nearly all newspapers went with carefully hedged headlines. Fortunately for the news business, John Kerry took everyone off the hook by conceding this morning.

In the new media Zeitgeist, being second or third or fourth is not such a bad thing, at least compared to making an early call that turns out to be wrong.

Howard Kurtz, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: I was watching that thinking that may very well be -- last time -- the last time, the big three anchors, Dan, Tom and Peter, anchoring election night.

Anyway, "Brown Table" is next. Collectively, they spent too many hours covering the campaign. They'll probably be glad when this one's over, too. Nina Easton, Terry Neal and John Harwood.

When last we talked, I said write down on a slip of paper who you think is going to win. John, you were kind enough to actually mail me yours, e-mail me yours, so I know what you wrote. But I'm still going to make you say it on TV.

John, who'd you pick?

JOHN HARWOOD, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL": I picked John Kerry. I believed all that stuff about incumbents being below 50 percent in their job approval ratings and in their pre-election surveys not being able to get there. And there were Republicans as well as Democrats telling me that their campaign experience suggested that.

So I was right about one thing, though, Aaron. I told you we were going to have a result before I went to bed, and I haven't gone to bed yet. And we've got a result.

BROWN: That's good. You're batting 50 percent. That's very good.

Nina, who'd you pick?

NINA EASTON, "THE BOSTON GLOBE": I picked Kerry. But look, last night's election was a clear victory for George Bush. Three million plus popular votes. This is a vote that you have to go back to 1988 to get a majority that looks like what George Bush won last night.

BROWN: Why did you pick Kerry, then?

EASTON: Well, I think -- I think at the time the undecideds looked like they were -- they were very much the type that would lean towards Kerry, more secular, more moderate. I expected that there was so much anger towards George Bush.

But what I didn't see, and what I think a lot of us didn't recognize was that there really is a conservative embrace of George Bush in this country. So that a lot of this -- this -- when the Bush machine labeled John Kerry as a liberal and we sort of -- I thought that was kind of outdated, that that really wouldn't work, that sort of liberal Massachusetts label.

In fact, that turned out to be catnip for the base. And that was a very strong motivator. And in a lot of the exit polls, we saw people saying that moral issues were what they were voting on. It wasn't just terrorism, and it wasn't just the economy. It was moral issues.

BROWN: I want to come back to that. Let me get Terry -- Terry's pick into this. I will tell you this -- I didn't bring my little slip of paper up, but after we talked, I wrote down George Bush, just so you know.

Terry, who'd you pick?

TERRY NEAL, WASHINGTONPOST.COM: Well, let me just set it up by saying I'm always really reluctant to talk about this, because there are a lot of people who, when they hear journalists talk about predictions often can't tell the difference between prediction and a desire. And this was really -- came back to haunt me a little bit in 2000. I was covering the campaign for the "Post."

And Alexandra Pelosi, who made the documentary, came and put a camera in my face and said, "Who do you think is going to win?"

And I said, "Bush." And one of the -- and it sort of got out there on the Web.

BROWN: Who'd you pick, Terry?

NEAL: I picked Kerry. I picked Kerry. I thought -- I thought -- and for a lot of the same reasons that John did, but also because I felt that there was more intensity. Not that people don't like George W. Bush, but that -- that the hatred was more of a motivating factor than love. And I thought that, combined with the fact that Bush was under 50 percent, would push Kerry over. I thought it would be close, but I thought Kerry would win.

BROWN: All right. John, I want to go back to you. I'm going to throw a theory out and let you all weigh in if you think it has any validity at all.

There was, to me, in this campaign the kind of underlying feeling that because of 9/11, the people felt a certain loss of control over their own lives. Jobs are being outsourced. It's an economic loss of control. Security, loss of control.

The one thing they feel like they can control are the values that center them. Which is why, in this theory, values rose so high.

HARWOOD: I don't know, Aaron. You know, I think that that values cross tab on the exit polls really is a proxy for identity politics. And people -- identity politics has been driving American voting choices for 40 years.

BROWN: Explain what you mean...

HARWOOD: It's not much different this time.

BROWN: Explain what you mean by identity politics.

HARWOOD: Well, people tend to support people who they feel are like them. And so when you say values, for a large chunk of people, especially conservative Christians, that means somebody like me. And that's why you see these -- do you go to church services once a week or more? If you do, very lopsidedly on the Republican side. If you don't, lopsidedly on the Democratic side.

I want to make one other point, though, about this value. Everyone's getting excited about values because that came out on the top of that issue ranking. We had a discussion about class around this "Brown Table" the other day.

BROWN: Yes.

HARWOOD: Don't forget the class dimension. If you look on these exit polls, if this election were conducted of people who made under $100,000, John Kerry would have won. George W. Bush racked up a big margin among people who made over $100,000. So don't forget the economic component of this, too.

Tax cuts mattered for him, and the -- the economic interests of people who have a lot of money, they associate those with the Republican Party. And that's an asset for them.

BROWN: Nina, are you surprised -- again, this is my observation here -- that Senator Kerry ran a very risk averse campaign? Is that consistent with who he is? You literally wrote the book on him.

EASTON: He is an extremely cautious man at the end of the day. And I think one of the -- one of the issues that keep coming back to is his vote on Iraq.

BROWN: Yes.

EASTON: I mean, this was a vote that he took, really, really very much in light of the election that he had to face. He was advised by the people around him that the way to run in a general election against a Republican candidate was to authorize a -- you know, authorize this resolution to go to war.

In fact, it really ran counter to the John Kerry of many years, who typically opposed controversial military interventions. So I think he was cautious there.

He was also actually cautious on his choice of John Edwards, which I don't think John Edwards particularly, at the end of the day, added much to the ticket.

The other interesting thing, and I go back to this, this question of can -- was there -- was there something wrong with the candidate or the candidacy? Could a liberal from Massachusetts really make a mark in a very conservative country? And would a Dick Gephardt, for example, have done better?

Dick Gephardt was somebody who actually scared the Republicans early on.

BROWN: Yes.

EASTON: The prospect of a Dick Gephardt candidacy. When we look back and say, "Well, maybe that would have worked better."

But you know, it's interesting. I mean, this was a president who was roiled (ph) by a very unpopular and deadly war in Iraq, an economy with job losses at home. I mean, he was -- he was a vulnerable candidate. And the fact that John Kerry was not able to beat him, it really raises questions about either the candidate or the candidacy.

BROWN: Well, both. Thank you all -- thank you all for your work over the last month. And I'm sure we'll talk to you again. Thank you.

Ahead on the program, we'll go to the bench, the Supreme Court, to look at how that is likely to change and what that might mean in the second Bush term. We break first. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We return now to what next? One of the most far-reaching powers every president has is the power to appoint federal and Supreme Court justices.

Since announcing he's being treated with thyroid cancer, Chief Justice U.S. Supreme Court William Rehnquist has not returned to the bench. It's all but certain the president will have an opportunity to appoint at least one, perhaps several justices in his second term, perhaps before it begins.

What's next is likely to be contentious.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): We've seen it before: Clarence Thomas confronted by allegations of impropriety.

JUSTICE CLARENCE THOMAS, U.S. SUPREME COURT: As far as I'm concerned, it is a high-tech lynching for uppity blacks.

BROWN: Attacks so harsh that Borking became a verb in the political lexicon.

SEN. EDWARD KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: In Robert Bork's America, there is no room at the end for blacks and no place in the Constitution for women. And in our America, there should be no seat on the Supreme Court for Robert Bork.

BROWN: The troops are already preparing for the next Supreme Court nomination. And they don't agree on much, but they do agree on this: we are likely to see it all over again.

BOYDEN GRAY, CHAIRMAN, COMMITTEE FOR JUSTICE: There will be a fight. You can almost count on it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, a firestorm of opposition, not just in the Senate but in the country.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am looking at a case decided by Judge Wilkinson, who's been listed on several of the media short lists, where there's being put forth, President Bush (ph).

BROWN: As the liberal Alliance for Justice lawyers are combing through the legal briefs and speeches, looking for signs that a nominee is too conservative. And not coincidentally, gathering ammunition for a challenge in the Senate.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's not Borking. It's providing critical information to people about an individual who will be making decisions that affect their lives. Not just for four years but perhaps the next 40 years.

BROWN: In the second Bush term, it's expected that at least one and possibly three new Supreme Court justices will be appointed.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's likely to be more restriction on abortion. There's likely to be less affirmative action. There's likely to be more involvement with the government in religion.

BROWN: But even with more Senate seats going to Republicans, after the election the Democrats will still have enough votes to block a candidate, to filibuster. They've done it before, in the lower courts.

SEAN RUSHTON, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, COMMITTEE FOR JUSTICE: The sense was we're getting -- our side was getting its clock cleaned, and we need somebody who's kind of here as a constant force to monitor this and to rebut it. It's basically a truth squad.

BROWN: Conservatives like Sean Rushton describe liberal activist groups as expert judge killers, and under former White House counsel Boyden Gray, have organized to fight back.

GRAY: It's a political campaign just like any other political campaign. And it can get as nasty as any ordinary political campaign.

BROWN: Important as it is, this is not just about who gets control of the U.S. Supreme Court. Senate Democrats complain that President Clinton's judicial candidates were unfairly blocked and so have filibustered to stall some conservative nominees of President Bush.

The president responded by appointing two controversial judges during congressional vacations, so-called recess appointments, the legality of which is being appealed to the Supreme Court.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Place to start a conversation with Robert George, columnist from the "New York Post," and from Washington tonight, Pulitzer Prize winning author, historian and journalist, Haynes Johnson.

Nice to see you both.

HAYNES JOHNSON, AUTHOR/HISTORIAN: Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: The way they're talking specifically about the court -- let me start with you, here, Mr. George. Do you expect Bush two, term two, to be as conservative -- although I'm not sure you would -- you'd necessarily buy the first part of that, that it was conservative -- as the first term?

ROBERT GEORGE, COLUMNIST, "NEW YORK POST": I think -- I think it will -- I would like it to be more traditionally conservative.

BROWN: More fiscally conservative?

GEORGE: Fiscally conservative, indeed. And he -- he didn't -- he didn't veto anything on spending -- on spending for example...

BROWN: No.

GEORGE: ... in the first term. And I'd like to think that because he has a little bit more latitude, he has a clear mandate now. He's got the popular vote. He's got more -- more Republican Senators, more in the House. He can actually govern as a fiscal conservative, as well.

BROWN: I want to come back to that. Haynes, do you think it is likely to be a -- as conservative a president as there was, or free from the need to play to his base, he can take this where he wants to take it?

JOHNSON: Well, every president in the second term has this dream of Mount Rushmore. They're going to be up there. They don't have to run again. It's wonderful. And they can do what they want, they think.

But the trouble is it's very seductive, because they don't have much time. And second terms can be very seductive and cruel to them, because they can misread the country and they can push too hard.

We still (ph) had an example today of one of the rare, really eloquent statements by both Bush and Kerry, about going to the middle, helping each other, not polarizing the country. The country desperately wants that. We're coming off a very badly divided country. But it's going to be hard to continue that.

It's going to be fascinating to see what Mr. Bush does with his opportunity. He does have an opportunity, but also could be very tragically wrong if he goes too far.

GEORGE: Well, one -- one thing that he has that -- that say neither a Bill Clinton nor Ronald Reagan had in their second terms is he has -- both chambers of Congress.

BROWN: He has a Congress that's trying to help him.

GEORGE: That's exactly right. And that's why, I mean, I think he wants to...

BROWN: Good point.

GEORGE: I think -- I think he wants to start an ambitious agenda.

BROWN: Here's -- here's the thing. The president, again, people can like the -- like his positions or not, is a guy of large goals, big ideas.

He didn't -- he wants to change dramatically Social Security. He hadn't been very clear on how that's actually going to be paid forwards with something he wants to do.

He talked about tax reform, simplifying the tax code, without really talking about what that meant.

But these are big, grand ideas. Can you do big, grand ideas in a second term which -- in some respects, really only has two years before the campaign is on?

GEORGE: Well, that's a good question. And I think -- I think you can. And again, unlike -- unlike his most recent predecessors, he's got a -- he's got a changed dynamic. He's got a clear political dynamic which he can -- which he can take -- which he can take advantage of.

And I'd like to think that the Democrats, I believe, are going to be a little bit warier of trying to block him procedurally, because he now has a 3.5 million plus advantage on -- in terms of popular votes to, in a sense, take to the people.

BROWN: Haynes, both as historian and journalist, are the Democrats likely to roll over for this guy, or say, "Hey, we got 49 percent of the vote"?

JOHNSON: No, they're not going to at all, Aaron. In fact, nor should they. They ought to be very careful the way they handle it, obviously. But they -- they have to sort of stand up for what they believe, if they know what they believe in. But they're not going to roll over. And the problem is, there's very little time, realistically, for a president in a second term. He's there and he's got only a few months to move, really, to the center or to try a few big ideas. And the time, the clock is ticking.

And this president, whether it was going to be Bush again or Kerry, I believe, and I've thought for a year, was going to have a terribly difficult second term because of all the problems we've talked about. The war in Iraq is not going to go away. The clock is ticking on the deficit. We have problems here at home. We're badly divided.

All the more reason to what Kerry and Bush said today, going to the center, trying to be -- remove the hatred in the country. That's going to be difficult.

BROWN: Well, it's what we'll watch for awhile and we'll talk about coming up, I think, in the next few weeks. Good to see you both. Thanks for coming in. I know everyone's tired tonight. Thank you.

GEORGE: Thank you. Thank you.

JOHNSON: Good night, Aaron.

BROWN: Coming up on NEWSNIGHT, candidates weren't the only things on the ballot, or the only ones on the ballot. There were lots of issues out there. We talked gay marriage, marijuana in three states on the ballot, gambling in lots of places. Winners and losers after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: This evening on "LOU DOBBS TONIGHT," Jeff Greenfield described the current House of Representatives as the most agenda driven in recent memory. In January, it will be all that and even more firmly in the control of the Republicans. Same goes for the Senate, though parliamentary procedural limits the majority's power there somewhat.

That said, the days of divided government now seem like ancient history.

Reporting for us tonight, CNN's Ed Henry.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senate Republicans broke out the champagne after a stunning sweep on election night. Republicans see it as a repudiation of Democratic efforts to block President Bush's agenda. Their biggest prize: beating the Democratic leader, Tom Daschle.

SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (VA), NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE: The message to the Democrats is stop the obstruction, stop the pass interference, stop the delays. Stop the filibustering. Move forward. Get through the elections. And act for the American people.

HENRY: A much different scene in South Dakota.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE (D-SD), MINORITY LEADER: My family had been at the base, and I have been at the base of Mount Rushmore as the sun rises. Those colors are warm and sweet and optimistic. Having seen sunsets and sunrises, I like sunrises better.

HENRY: Majority leader Bill Frist flew around the country to celebrate with his winning candidates. Republicans picked up four Senate seats. That gives Frist 55 seats, making it easier to push through the president's second term agenda: more tax cuts, conservative judges, tort reform and an energy bill.

SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN), MAJORITY LEADER: A comprehensive energy policy. We lost it by one vote on the floor of the United States Senate, at a time when the price of oil is $50 a barrel and gasoline is almost at record levels.

HENRY: Democrats were stunned after also losing seats in the House and falling short in the presidential fight.

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: We have now lost just about everything that we can lose.

HENRY: They will now try to pick up the pieces, starting with a new leader to replace Daschle. That's likely to be Harry Reed of Nevada.

Democratic strategists say the party needs to walk a fine line: agree with the president some but fight back, as well.

JACK QUINN, FORMER CLINTON WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: By working with the president, among other things, and when they can't work with the president, by standing up and expressing their disagreements with him clearly, forcefully, and with respect.

HENRY (on camera): It looks like Senate Democrats, at least for now, are taking a more conciliatory approach to their relationship with President Bush. Harry Reid is known as somebody who works across the aisle with Republicans.

Ed Henry, CNN, Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: As for now, that would be 24 hours after the election. The initiative process is either an example that our democracy works or that it doesn't. I've never been sure.

In either case, there were a lot of initiatives and referenda last night, from gay marriage to the allocating of electoral votes to gambling to pot. A sample of how they played out now.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) BROWN (voice-over): Supporters broke into victory cheers in Oregon as Measure 36 passed, a measure banning gay marriage. Opponents, on the other hand, wept and promised to fight on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: True love cannot be defeated.

BROWN: Across the nation, 11 states had ballot measures banning marriage between people of the same sex, and every one of them passed, and every one of them passed by a large margin.

In eight states, the ban extends to other forms of civil unions and partnership rights. Supporters said it was a vote for traditional values.

GEORGINE RICE, YES ON 36 CAMPAIGN: Most people didn't see this as a referendum on gay and lesbian issues. They saw this as an issue of marriage.

BROWN: Christian activists told CNN that the state vote showed strong support for a national marriage amendment. Gay activists promised immediate legal challenges.

JACK SENTERFITT, PLAINTIFF'S ATTORNEY: We believe very strongly that this amendment is unconstitutional.

BROWN: Across the country, there were 163 ballot measures last night. Alaska and Oregon voted against loosening their marijuana laws. Montana voted for medical marijuana use.

And Arizona passed a controversial amendment that will crack down on illegal immigrants. This one will end up in the courts.

But it was California, the home of the voter initiative, that had the biggest night, as Governor Schwarzenegger declared victory.

GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: This is what I love about election day, because when the people flex their muscles, then the state gets much stronger.

BROWN: The governor fended off initiatives that would have made all companies provide health insurance for their employees and eased California's tough three-strike sentencing guidelines.

He also pushed through a massive 10-year, $3 billion research program into embryonic stem cells that could put the Golden State in the forefront of medical research. But it also put Governor Schwarzenegger at odds with President Bush and social conservatives, who proved so influential in the fight against same-sex marriage.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Quick look at the initiatives from last night.

Coming up on the program, there's a University of Miami in Ohio. Really, there is. And based on yesterday's vote, there's reason to believe Ohio learned a lot from Miami four years ago. That story and more. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Turns out Ohio was more of a hiccup than a roadblock last night. Pundits predicted the Buckeye State would be the battleground, much like Florida was in 2000 over contested ballots. They were right, and they were wrong.

It was a battleground all right, but not for polling monitors and disputed votes. It was a battleground for the faithful that came out in droves because they believe: believe in a higher power, believe in President Bush.

Now it's safe to say they are a force, a considerable force to be reckoned with.

Here's CNN's Dan Lothian.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAN LOTHIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The headlines in Ohio screamed, "Cliffhanger."

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We turned out not only young voters but...

LOTHIAN: Protesters screamed for every vote to be counted.

But in suburban Columbus, where manicured lawns were decorated with Bush/Cheney signs, loud amens from the evangelical faithful like Lynn Ramsbottom (ph).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Why? I think he has a deep commitment.

LOTHIAN: Her vote tied to her strong belief in values.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that that can be the basis of more good things happening in the future.

LOTHIAN: In the mother of all battleground states, where a near record turnout stretched voting into the wee hours, a surprising and convincing showing by the Republican Party base, Christians who proudly wear their faith on bumper stickers next to "W" signs.

This car belongs to Bonnie and Lester Pifer, who say even with the war and worries about the economy, President Bush was the only choice because of what he believes.

LESTER PIFER, REPUBLICAN: We participated (ph) to his viewpoint on this stem cell issue.

BONNIE PIFER, REPUBLICAN: He conducted his campaign with grace and honesty. I like him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Accepting the holy Bible...

LOTHIAN: The evangelical community in this state is strong and, unlike 2000, more energized, in part, say some voters, because of the anti-gay marriage initiative which passed.

CHRISTY LEDTKE, PARISHIONER: Bush was so adamantly against that stuff.

PASTOR BILL SNELL, GRACE BRETHREN CHURCH: The family is basic to our country and its welfare. And so goes the family, so goes the nation.

LOTHIAN: In exit polling, 23 percent of Ohio voters surveyed said moral values was the most important issue. And of those people, 85 percent voted for Bush.

(on camera) But how did faith take a leap over the most pressing issue in this state: job losses? More than 200,000, mostly in the manufacturing sector, gone since President Bush took office.

PROFESSOR BERT ROCKMAN, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: We tend to associate rational voting with pocketbook voting, but rational voting could be a function of whatever your -- whatever is the most salient set of preferences you have.

LOTHIAN (voice-over): But driving her vintage VW, Gina Ginetti (ph), who is proud of her faith, isn't convinced. She voted not with her heart but with her pocketbook.

GINA GINETTI, DEMOCRATIC VOTER: Senior citizens, they need help with the medicine, with hospitalization. They're not getting enough help at all.

LOTHIAN: But evangelicals in this state say this election was a wakeup call.

SNELL: The heart and soul of America is much more biblically centered and God-centered than many people want to think. And this election brought them out by the thousands.

L. PIFER: We're thankful. We're thankful for what has taken place.

LOTHIAN: They believe their prayers were answered.

Dan Lothian, CNN, Columbus.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Well, Florida -- if Ohio, rather was the new Florida last night, the red state with the blue collar that provided the cliffhanger and ultimately decided the race, where does that leave the old Florida, which is Florida?

In spite of all the speculation and worry about what might happen in Florida this time around, history did not repeat itself.

Here's Susan Candiotti.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Come and vote! Every vote counts.

SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Turn out, turn out, turn out.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go, go, go!

CANDIOTTI: This year, nearly two million more Floridians went to the polls than in 2000, President Bush besting Senator Kerry by about five percentage points. Forget a mere 537 votes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hurry, go! You've got to be in line. If you're in line at 7, you get to vote!

CANDIOTTI: Strong Bush support came from those who credit his faith-based values and anti-abortion stand, say exit polls.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Never been more proud of my president, somebody who will stand up and confess that he loves God and pray and I'm proud of him.

CANDIOTTI: Regular churchgoers also came out for Bush in big numbers, up nearly 70 percent over 2000.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why people like Bush, because Bush is openly religious.

CANDIOTTI: The Latino vote, about 52 to 44 percent, helped push Bush over the top, as predicted, especially along the I-4 corridor across central Florida.

JAMES COOK, REPUBLICAN VOLUNTEER: Family values, hard work, you know, the American dream. And that's where the Hispanic community is, and that's what we offered them.

CANDIOTTI: In Osceola County, where Al Gore won four years ago, Bush won easily here. A third of the voters were Hispanic. And Bush won a majority among them.

COOK: But it will be somewhere 50's, in the upper 50's.

CANDIOTTI: CNN exit polls show the war on terror was overwhelmingly the key issue for Bush Florida backers. The war in Iraq, only 25 percent.

The president's brother sees it this way.

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: I think there's a belief in our state that it's -- it was inappropriate to change leaders during a time of crisis, a time of war. And the president clearly, I think, explained to the voters of this state that we were -- we are at war. Senator Kerry couldn't quite get there.

CANDIOTTI: This Kerry supporter, who flew all the way from Alaska to volunteer in Florida, is circumspect.

DAN LASOTA, KERRY SUPPORTER: There's one consolation, that I wasn't sitting home and doing nothing. At least I gave it my all.

CANDIOTTI (on camera): Governor Jeb Bush admits his brother faces a divided nation. As he put it, the president will have to reach out and soothe the wounds, adding, "I know he will do it."

Susan Candiotti, CNN, Orlando, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Still ahead, an update on the non-election news of the day. This is NEWSNIGHT.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: A quick look now at some of the other stories making news around the world today.

Hamid Karzai, officially Afghan -- Afghanistan's first freely elected president. Karzai was named interim leader after U.S. forces defeated the Taliban. An election held last month, Karzai getting over 50 percent of the vote. That's how it works in an election.

In Paris, there are conflicting reports about just how sick Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is. And Israeli newspaper claiming Arafat's health has seriously deteriorated. Sources close to the Palestinian leader deny that report but acknowledge he continues to undergo treatment.

In Iraq, another video of Margaret Hassan has been released, though it is said to be too graphic to air. The insurgents holding her are threatening to turn her over to a group that has beheaded several other hostages already. Hassan heads up CARE in Iraq, or did.

Redwood City, California, after months of testimony, hundreds of witnesses and countless cable TV programs, the jury finally has the Scott Peterson case. They began deliberating today.

And as for the election, here's a look back at some of today's defining moments. Not only did President Bush win the electoral vote; he also won the popular vote by more than three million. Mr. Bush got almost 59 million votes across the country, 51 percent. Senator John Kerry, 55,300,000, 48 percent of the vote. Ralph Nader one percent of the vote and probably planning his next campaign.

When Senator Kerry offered his concession speech in Boston this afternoon, he said he'd called the president and congratulated him. He also said it was time for America to come together after a long and bitter campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I did my best to express my vision and my hopes for America. We worked hard and we fought hard. And I wish that things had turned out a little differently. But in an American election, there are no losers. Because whether or not our candidates are successful, the next morning, we all wake up as Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Senator Kerry in Boston today.

During his victory speech in Washington, the president also talked about bringing the country together, the sort of thing you say on a day like this.

He thanked a record number of voters who helped turn out the vote that put him back in the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want to thank the thousands of our supporters across our country. I want to thank you for your hugs on the rope lines. I want to thank you for your prayers on the rope lines. I want to thank you for your kind words on the rope lines.

I want to thank you for everything you did to make the calls and to put up the signs, to talk to your neighbors and to get out the vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: The day. The day in "Morning Papers," after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, time to check "Morning Papers" from around the country and around the world. The headline is the same. The story is the same. The headline isn't the same, otherwise this would be a completely dumb segment to do, wouldn't it? I think it would.

"International Herald Tribune," published by "The New York Times" in Paris, "Bush Wins Second Term By a Solid Margin. Battle Ends Quietly as Kerry Concedes." A couple of other things. I like this, just an analysis piece, "Kerry Failed to Connect on the Economy."

I wonder if there's more than that. It just seemed to me that the senator campaigned hard but he failed to connect on a lot of things. And that's an interesting problem for the Democrats if I'm right. I may not be.

"Washington Times," "Four More Years. Proud Bush Declares Mandate." Keep that headline in mind, OK? "Proud Bush Declares Mandate." And they also put on the front page, "Producing a Hollywood Flop. A List Support for Kerry Failed." A very "Washington Times" sort of story on the front page: George Soros, Springsteen, Michael Moore, Eminem, you got it.

"The Philadelphia" -- I'm sorry, the "Cincinnati Inquirer -- Enquirer," "Bush Prevails. Ohio Finally Pushes Him Over the Top." So they got themselves a hometown story, and they play it that way. "Philadelphia Inquirer," "America Has Spoken. In Victory, Bush Speaks of New Chance to Reach Out to Divided Nation." OK, now down -- remember we talked about mandate. Go down to the corner here. "Caution: Specter Says President Has No Mandate." That would be Republican Senator Arlen Specter.

You think he's getting a call from anybody today, saying, "Don't be saying that no mandate thing"?

"Miami Herald," "President Bush." Pretty simple, straightforward headline. "GOP Wins Firm Control of National Agenda." It does have that. "Pledge to Reach Out in the Next Term."

They always say that. I don't know if they actually ever -- actually do it. But there you go.

"Boston Herald," Senator's hometown paper, though it rarely has anything nice to say about Senator Kerry, "Dems in Disarray." Seemed like a good way to put -- reason to put Hillary Clinton on the front page, too. "Look to Hill as Savior." I'm not sure what this story's about, this one, "Town Snubs Hero's Widow."

That's probably -- the front page of a tabloid doesn't always help you much.

The -- "The Oregonian," out in Portland, Oregon, "Bush Calls for Unity. President Reaches Out for Those Who Voted for Kerry. Voters Again Prove Oregon is in Neither Party's Pocket." That is the truth. A very independent state.

The "Rocky Mountain News," I love this picture. It's just a great -- I don't know who shot this. It's a wonderful picture of the president, though, isn't it? "America Has Spoken." The "Rocky Mountain News" in Denver, Colorado. State went for the president.

The "Detroit News." It's right in front of me. I don't know why I paused there. "Bush Vows to Unify a Divided Country" is their headline. "Moral Issues Pay Off for Bush. The president was able to draw voters who trust him" -- who trust him. It seems like the sort of thing you have to do to get somebody to vote for you.

Fifteen seconds. Where's my "Sun-Times"? Here it is. We'll end it with the "Sun-Times." They lead, of course, with the president. Down here, "Cops: Blackmail Targeted TV Anchor."

So I was talking to Bill O'Reilly. I said, "I've got to stop" -- they've got to stop suing us, whatever it is.

Weather tomorrow in Chicago, ain't no sunshine. We'll wrap it up in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: OK, that's it for tonight. Two hours seems like plenty, doesn't it? We'll go back to an hour tomorrow, I promise. Good to have you with us, so until tomorrow, 10 p.m. Eastern Time, goodnight for all of us.

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