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CNN Newsnight Aaron Brown
Resistance Sporadic in Falluja; Ashcroft, Evans Resign; Dems Regrouping to Move Forward
Aired November 09, 2004 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, GUEST HOST: Thank you, and to our viewers, our NEWSNIGHT viewers in the United States and around the world, thanks very much for joining us. As Larry said, Aaron Brown is off tonight. He will be back tomorrow.
This is one of those rare moments in the Middle East, when two dramatic developments unfolding right now, could provide a real window of movement toward peace. We can only hope.
I'm referring to events unfolding right now involving Iraqis and Palestinians.
In Iraq, there's the battle for Falluja. Potentially, we are told, a pivotal moment in the effort to bring stability and democracy in that country. If the insurgents are defeated there, that could help set the stage for their defeat elsewhere.
Not far away in the region, there's hope that Yasser Arafat, in his death, might propel the restart of peace negotiations with Israel. That could happen if a new Palestinian leadership emerges, one with which the Israelis and the Bush administration could deal.
In recent days, top Israeli, Palestinian and U.S. officials have suggested in private conversations with me, that that, indeed, is a real possibility, though it's by no means a certainty.
There is an opportunity, they say, on both fronts. And that's certainly dominating so much of the back room deliberations here in Washington.
A busy night ahead, as "The Whip" starts with CNN's Jane Arraf. She's embedded with the U.S. Army.
Jane, the headline.
We'll get to Jane in a moment.
The Pentagon up next. And our Jamie McIntyre, a headline from you, please, Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, fierce fighting in Falluja even as U.S. commanders say the resistance is not as stiff as they expected. Does that mean some of the insurgents have slipped away? Or simply that the toughest fighting is yet to come? BLITZER: Up next, CNN's John King, on the beginning of significant changes over at the White House. John, your headline tonight.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the president, and one of his most controversial cabinet members have been keeping a secret for a week. Tonight, it's out. The attorney general, John Ashcroft, is leaving -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And finally, Yasser Arafat, a medical, political and, yes, a financial story. CNN's John Vause with details tonight and a headline.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Before the body is even cold, an ugly battle over Arafat's millions is under way. And sources tell CNN, Arafat's wife, Suha, has been playing hardball.
BLITZER: John Vause and all of our correspondents, we'll be back with you. That's coming up.
Also in the hour ahead on this program, a detailed look at what -- what is on the president's agenda for the next four years and how it will affect all of our lives.
A check on where the Democrats stand, as well, as they try to regroup from last week and get back in shape for today and election 2008.
Segment seven is a look back 15 years to the day the Berlin Wall started coming down, and the brave new world we ended up with.
All that, much more. First, though, Falluja. Here, once again, our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A seven-hour firefight in the heart of Falluja's Jolan neighborhood. Marines exchanging heavy fire with insurgents using rocket-propelled grenade and mortars.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Red, red. This is breaker three (ph). We have an engagement down the road was exactly what RPG dialed up (ph) and where the round just came from.
MCINTYRE: Several Marines are wounded. But despite these pictures, U.S. commanders say the overall resistance in Falluja, so far, has been sporadic.
LT. GEN. THOMAS METZ, MULTINATIONAL CORPS, IRAQ: I think the enemy is -- is fighting hard. But not to the death. And I think that they are continuing to fall back.
MCINTYRE: The U.S. and Iraqi troops are finding fewer booby traps than expected. That may be in part to the effective use of air strikes like this one two weeks ago. A 500-pound bomb dropped by a Navy F-18 sets off a chain reaction, taking out a string of roadside bombs lining a main road near Falluja.
So far, commanders say casualties have been light for urban warfare. And the first 48 hours, 10 U.S. and two Iraqi troops were killed, with about two dozen wounded.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Jay, stay out of the streets. Get on the sidewalk. Watch the top and bottom. Watch the windows. Watch everywhere you go. Check the walls.
MCINTYRE: The offensive is ahead of schedule, but many key objectives taken as the outer crust of the insurgent defenses crumbled, under the U.S./Iraqi assault.
Along with the bridges across the Euphrates, the rail station, the hospital, several military buildings and mosques are now secured as the stranglehold tightens on the Jolan district, thought to be an insurgent stronghold.
METZ: I think we're looking at several more days of tough, urban fighting.
MCINTYRE: But General Metz concedes the most-wanted man in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, probably left Falluja, along with his senior leaders.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: And the question is how many people left with him. How many of the 2,000 to 3,000 insurgents the U.S. believed were in Falluja, escaped before the U.S. effectively sealed off the city just two days ago?
Now, heat signatures from infrared imagery indicate that there's still a substantial number of people in the city. But how many of them are enemy fighters, the Pentagon says the next couple of days will tell that story -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jamie, what are you hearing about U.S. casualties?
MCINTYRE: Well, so far the casualty count we have is fairly low. But the biggest -- the toughest fighting could be coming.
The Pentagon is not releasing any of the names of any of the casualties yet. But we have been getting just some reports, again, about 10 U.S. service members, two Iraqis, several dozen or a dozen or so wounded.
But those figures were from hours ago. And there's been some pretty tough fighting since then. I think we're going to have to expect the casualty toll is going to go up a bit.
BLITZER: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon tonight. Thank you, Jamie, very much. Earlier, we tried to get Jane Arraf at the top of this program. We'll try once again now. Jane is embedded with the U.S. Army's 1st Infantry Division. She's joining us on the phone.
Jane, who is the latest?
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The sun is coming up here, in this industrial area of Falluja. This is an area where a lot of the fighters were thought to have been holed up. And this is the area where they have been laying these booby-trapped streets. And these streets...
BLITZER: I guess we're having some serious problems with Jane Arraf's audio. She's embedded on the scene in Falluja. We'll try to fix those problems and get back to the scene as best we can.
Jane Arraf, one of our courageous journalists on the scene of Falluja.
Whatever the ultimate number of casualties may turn out to be, there's a good chance that some of the wounded will end up in Washington at Walter Reed Army Hospital.
Today, the president and the first lady paid a visit. They do this from time to time, Mr. Bush calling the troops a continued inspiration to them and saying his prayers are with them and the forces doing battle in Falluja tonight.
Much more on the battle for Falluja in our next segments. Some analysis and a close-up view of the fighting coming up from a combat photographer also embedded on the ground.
First, though, let's continue with the shakeup over at the White House. Two cabinet secretaries now on the way out. One, a close friend of the president. The other, some would call him a lightning rod.
Once again, here's CNN's John King.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): The attorney general's resignation letter, is dated November 2, election day. Hand-written, he told the president, to keep his plans secret even from top aides, until Mr. Bush decided the time was right for an announcement.
That announcement came a week later, Tuesday night. Along with word a second high profile member of the Bush cabinet, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, also would not be staying on for the second Bush term.
In his five-page letter, Ashcroft voiced pride in the administration's record in fighting terrorism and both corporate and violent crime. But said, "I believe that the Department of Justice would be well-served by new leadership and fresh inspiration." The 62-year-old Ashcroft is a former Missouri governor and senator, an evangelical Christian, a favorite of social and religious conservatives.
Critics accused Ashcroft of being overzealous in his use of the Patriot Act, a post-9/11 tool to fight terrorism. The liberal organization People for the American Way, for example, called Ashcroft one of the most destructive attorneys general in the modern era and said his tenure is marked by a severe erosion of constitutional liberties.
But the president called Ashcroft a key figure in protecting Americans from terrorism and said he has made sure that the rights of Americans are respected and protected.
Potential successors include Larry Thompson, a former top Ashcroft deputy, former Montana governor and Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot; and White House counsel Alberto Gonzales.
Secretary Evans submitted his resignation Tuesday, one day after the White House made clear chief of staff Andy Card would be staying on to begin the new term.
Evans had made clear during the campaign that four years of commerce was enough and told Mr. Bush in his letter, "I have concluded with deep regret that it is time for me to return home."
Secretary Evans was the chief fund-raiser for the Bush 2000 presidential campaign. The man who held that post this year, Mercer Reynolds, is among those mentioned as potential successors at commerce.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Attorney General Ashcroft says he will stay on until a successor is confirmed. Secretary Evans expected to stay at least into the new year, as well.
And Wolf, as the president mulls his choices to replace them, senior aides say there could be a bit more cabinet turnover before the week is out.
BLITZER: In terms of big names or relatively second-tier cabinet members, any hints whatsoever who may be deciding to move on?
KING: Nothing definitive at all. But we do know that among those making a decision, and we're expecting to have the decision by the end of the week, is the president's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice.
Also some questions as to whether other people that many would consider second-tier cabinet jobs -- those secretaries might disagree -- that might be moving on, as well. But Condoleezza Rice is one person to certainly watch over the next two or three days.
BLITZER: We'll see what happens with Condoleezza Rice and everyone else. And John King will tell us all about it. Thanks, John, very much.
Beyond personnel and personalities, there is policy. The president's agenda for the next four years is not a modest one, by any measure. Mr. Bush says he has big plans. We'll take a closer look. That's coming up in just a few minutes.
Before we do that, however, there is the other side to consider: the agenda of the party out of power. How are the Democrats handling defeat? And what are they doing to regroup?
With that, here's CNN's Judy Woodruff.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS" (voice-over): If you had any doubts that John Kerry wants to remain a top player in his dispirited party, check out this picture. Kerry, back on Capitol Hill Tuesday, pow-wowing with the current Democratic leader in the House and her in-coming counterpart in the Senate.
Their goal...
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: Saving civilization as we know it today.
WOODRUFF: Nancy Pelosi was joking. But to Democrats, the state of the party is no laughing matter after losing the White House and seats in the Senate and House.
So, the "Where did we go wrong? What do we do now?" conversations have begun in earnest. Among the big questions: how will Kerry fit in? As statesman? As thorn in President Bush's side? Or once again as presidential candidate?
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's inconceivable to me that anybody's even talking about that stuff right now.
WOODRUFF: But the senator's brother told "The Boston Globe" another Kerry race for the White House is conceivable. For now, he says Kerry will continue to fight for the values and issues he campaigned on.
Another question: who will take the helm of the Democratic National Committee once, as expected, Terry McAuliffe, steps down? Howard Dean says he's looking at the job.
HOWARD DEAN (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're not retreating. And we're not giving up. And we're not going to stop fighting.
WOODRUFF: Some Democrats think Dean would bring energy to the party, not to mention his Internet-based network of Deaniacs.
But Dean carries his own baggage. And it's not clear if he wants another shot at the White House in 2008. One top candidate for the DNC post is a strong voice in the growing chorus of Democrats who say the party needs a clearer message that sells in the heartland.
DONNA BRAZILE, FORMER GORE CAMPAIGN MANAGER: We must have enough faith and confidence in what we stand for to clearly advocate for what we believe and not get caught up in polls and focus groups that can switch overnight.
WOODRUFF: Top Kerry campaign advisers acknowledge the message problems but argue that Iraq and social issues wound up driving the race.
One week later, the denial phase of their mourning process, appears to have passed, and reality has hit.
Judy Woodruff, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Just ahead on this program, the retired U.S. Marine Corps General Terry Murray, on the battle for Falluja.
Also, the story from the infantry's point of view, as told in dramatic still photos.
And later, images of a moment that lowered the curtain of one era and ushered in another, the Berlin Wall, 15 years to the day after the fall.
A break first. This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And our deepest condolences to all those U.S. troops.
Having set the scene in Falluja earlier, we want to get another set of eyes on the story. With us now, retired U.S. Marine Corps Major General and CNN military analyst, Terry Murray.
General, thanks very much for joining us.
MAJOR GEN. TERRY MURRAY (RET.), U.S. MARINE CORPS: Thank you.
BLITZER: Is it almost over? Not yet close to being over? What's the latest information you're getting on the battle for Falluja?
MURRAY: I think the assessment right now, Wolf, is that resistance has been a little bit less than we anticipated. We were guessing, were there were 6,000 insurgents or were there 1,000 insurgents?
It appears at this point it may be towards the lower end. Having said that, we've only been at it for two days, which means that we have left a lot of buildings in this city untouched. And I think it's quite likely that, while some of the insurgents left the city, there are others who may have gone underground in the city. And it's going to take several days, I would expect, to go through the city and determine whether there are any more insurgents or terrorists dispersed around town.
BLITZER: And then long after that several day period, assuming you're right, it's going to take a long time to occupy the city and maintain the city. And it's going to require a lot of troops, U.S. and I assume Iraqi personnel, as well.
MURRAY: Absolutely. In fact, I think when the civilians come back and we estimate could be close to a quarter of a million that could be coming back into the city. With them, we're going to see insurgents come back into town.
And then, the question is -- how many troops -- how many boots on the ground will it take to ensure that we maintain control over the city? And to ensure that Zarqawi or someone else doesn't come back and begin to export terrorism, again, from Falluja?
BLITZER: The U.S. hope would be that Iraqi allied forces could do that, could have the brunt of that responsibility. But are they ready for that already?
MURRAY: I think that's crucial. And I do not think they are ready for that yet.
However, when we begin to put security forces in the city, who will stay behind and help to maintain control, I do think that it's absolutely essential that a good percentage of those troops are Iraqi troops.
BLITZER: And what the U.S. and Iraqi forces are doing in Falluja now they're going to have to do elsewhere. There are a bunch of other towns around the Sunni Triangle and elsewhere that are not necessarily under U.S. and Iraqi control.
MURRAY: That's correct. Even in Samarra. We thought we had Samarra fairly well pacified two weeks ago. And the reality is, in the last week, we've had some very serious problems in Samarra. Many people have been killed.
So, we have to anticipate that, in Samarra, potentially Ramadi, like Falluja, we may have to do similar work, as we've been doing in Falluja the last 48 hours.
BLITZER: It sounds like the U.S. is going to need, at least in the short term, leading up to the election schedule for the end of January, thousands more troops.
MURRAY: I think that we've got 138,000 troops in theater right now. I could not begin to estimate what will be required on the ground in Falluja and elsewhere throughout Iraq, in order to maintain the peace. The fact is, I think that Falluja will become a good model for us. We'll have an idea, when we're done with the conventional battle, how many troops it will take on the ground to pacify Falluja. And that becomes, then, a model for other cities.
BLITZER: General Terry Murray, as usual, thanks very much.
MURRAY: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: Jane Arraf, hopefully, we've established contact with her. She's embedded with the U.S. Army in Falluja.
Jane, can you tell us what's happening now?
ARRAF: Well, the sun is coming up. Another day's battle expected. But the fiercest of battles are thought to be over.
We are with Task Force 22 of the 1st Infantry Division. And they were responsible for pushing through many of these defenses (ph), paving the way for the Marines.
We're hear in the industrial section. And this was thought to be an area where foreign fighters had a particularly strong hold. As we can in, in fact, obviously, there are still insurgents here, because they have been shooting at the soldiers that we're with. They've been shooting at the buildings that they're occupying.
The place is totally devoid of civilians. There is not a civilian to be seen in the street. And an official says that it appears insurgents have chased them away, to be able to rig up the -- a series of booby-trapped streets. Homemade bombs that are not far from here.
BLITZER: I ask this question, Jane, because I'm getting a lot of e-mail from our viewers who are concerned about you. How are you doing?
ARRAF: That's so nice. I'm doing absolutely fine. You know, we've -- part of showing viewers reality is kind of going through the same thing that the soldiers and the Iraqi people are going through. So that's what we're trying to do. My cameraman and I thank you.
BLITZER: Jane Arraf, bringing information from a very dangerous location to our viewers in the United States and around the world. Thank you very much.
For all we learn from the experts and the correspondents on the ground, as the war in Iraq goes forward, their words only say so much. Same in the way with even the best videotape.
Sometimes a still photograph says even more. Tonight, moments from Falluja, as seen through the lens of a photographer embedded with the U.S. military.
Luis Sinco of "The Los Angeles Times" and operating with the Marine's 1st Division, 8th Regiment, Charlie Company. He's brave enough to do what he does. What's more: he's brave and sensible enough to say that what he does is scaring him a lot.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LUIS SINCO, PHOTOGRAPHER: I am so happy to be alive and talking to you. Today we came under fire so many times. At one point, there were bullets flying everywhere. The one shot of the guys running across the street, while other guys are laying covering fire, there were bullets coming from all directions, all at once.
And all through the day, all kinds of RPGs and explosions. So, the mood here is, personally, I'm glad to be alive.
These Marines are very excited. We were trying to find a safe house to go into, after a firefight. And, basically, what they do is they kicked down the door and go room-to-room and search everything so that there's no insurgents in the house.
They killed at least three insurgents from the rooftop of the house. And at one point, a half dozen insurgents tried to sneak around the house. They were carrying RPGs and AK-47s. And these guys basically blew them away.
Immediately after we found our first safe house, we left part of the platoon in the safe house and started walking down the street in front of the safe house and immediately came upon two dead insurgents and one wounded insurgent.
And first of all, they basically had to tell everybody to find cover because they thought the wounded insurgent had been booby- trapped. So, one brave Marine went up there and turned him over to see if there were any grenades or explosives planted underneath him. Fortunately, there weren't any.
And so, the two medics went out and tried to help him.
He's just one of the riflemen in the company. And he was fighting very, very hard today and fighting very hard and very bravely. And very effectively.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Luis Sinco, a photographer for "The Los Angeles Times." Thank you, Luis. Thank you so much.
In a moment, the president's agenda. He says he wants to use his political capital to remake taxes, Social Security and much more. How will things change if he does?
And as Yasser Arafat lingers in intensive care, the battle intensifies over his burial and his fortune.
From Washington tonight, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Every administration has plans. This one has big plans. The president says the voters gave him a mandate to make them a reality. If he does, for better or for worse, your life will almost certainly change. So, we're taking a very careful look at what's on the menu. Discussion in just a moment.
First, though, a scene-setter, if you will, covering all the bases, starting with Social Security.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): This is John King at the White House.
It was a staple of the president's campaign stump speech.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I believe younger workers ought to be allowed to take some of their payroll taxes and put it in a personal savings account.
KING: But Mr. Bush's controversial Social Security proposal is much more an idea than a plan. The president has not, for example, set a percentage of Social Security taxes he thinks younger Americans should be allowed to divert to private accounts or offered an estimate of how much such a dramatic change would cost.
The White House won't say when or even if Mr. Bush will propose specific legislation.
SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I -- I think it's a little premature to speculate right now.
KING: Some studies suggest the transition could cost as much as $2 trillion. The president opposes raising Social Security payroll taxes and says those nearing retirement age won't face benefit cuts.
But many other key questions are left for the debate to come, including whether to raise the Social Security retirement age, to change how cost of living increases are calculated, and to reduce benefits for younger Americans.
Mr. Bush says it is irresponsible to do nothing. Fifty years ago, there were 15 workers for every person receiving Social Security. Forty years from now, that ratio is projected to be just two to one.
John King, CNN, the White House.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We must reform our complicated and outdated tax code.
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Some conservatives want President Bush to abolish the IRS and replace the income tax altogether. But key allies predict the president will not get radical change in his second term. GROVER NORQUIST, PRESIDENT, AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM: We are several years away from fundamental tax reform. What we're going to have over the next four years are some baby steps in that direction.
HENRY: Republicans say, look for an end to the estate tax, more cuts in capital gains and corporate taxes and an expansion of IRAs and 401(k)s. But the president is expected to appoint a commission to weight major reforms, like a flat tax, which some conservatives believe would make the system simpler and more fair.
Democrats say they favor simplicity, but warn another proposal, a national sales tax, would be unfair.
REP. CHARLES RANGEL (D), NEW YORK: I just don't see how the American people are prepared to have their taxes increased 20, 30, 50 percent, and to give further relief to the richest people we have in the United States of America.
HENRY: Another problem, every tax loophole the president wants to close has a constituency that doesn't want to see it shut.
Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Part of President Bush's energy plan for his second term calls for exploratory drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to reduce dependence on overseas oil. He says the untapped area will produce one million barrels a day for 20 years. The U.S. uses about 18 million barrels a day now.
ADRIANA RAUDZENS, SIERRA CLUB: It wouldn't provide oil until about 10 years from now. It would take that long to come online. So it's certainly not a solution for our short-term gas prices or energy prices.
CALLEBS: Bush's 2003 energy measure was scuttled by Democrats and some Republicans, saying the president relied too much on advice from big oil, coal and gas companies. And there's a huge divide between Bush and environmentalists. While he touts the Clear Skies Initiative, critics say it won't improve air quality from burning fossil fuels.
And although the president continues to Bush his Healthy Forest Restoration Act, it calls for thinning and logging national forests.
GOV. BILL OWENS (R), COLORADO: By removing some of that undergrowth, we actually preserve the forest from the forest fire which is otherwise almost inevitable.
CALLEBS: Environmental groups say it's simply a plan that rewards timber companies.
Sean Callebs, CNN, Denver.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Bush sent signals during the campaign, about the various standards he would apply to his judicial selections.
BUSH: Another example would be the Dred Scott case.
FRANKEN: Many consider that a coded message to the anti-abortion movement that he too considers overturning Roe vs. Wade, which legalized abortion, as morally imperative as undoing 1854's Dred Scott ruling, which upheld slavery.
Now, with the illness of Chief Justice William Rehnquist highlighting judicial nominations by the president, a stronger Republican majority is demanding more conservative candidates in the mold of Justices Thomas and Scalia.
RALPH NEAS, PRESIDENT, PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY: If that happens, it would precipitate an extraordinary confirmation battle.
FRANKEN: Many battles. Another issue, who gets to go into court.
BUSH: There needs to be balance in our legal system. There must be tort reform.
FRANKEN: It's a staple of the Bush agenda, to limit the right to sue for product liability and medical malpractice. The president has met stiff opposition. But the political balance has softened that opposition.
Bob Franken, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Up next, we'll talk implications and practicalities and the rest with a senior White House correspondent and a presidential historian.
First, though, a break. This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Word on this president's plan for the next four years and how well presidents tend to do in their second terms.
With us, Mike Allen. He covers the White House for "The Washington Post." And political scientist Martha Kumar of Towson University in Maryland.
Good to have both of you on the program. Thanks very much.
MARTHA KUMAR, TOWSON UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We heard the setup for this, Social Security reform, tax reform, environmental issues, the Supreme Court.
What do you think, Mike, is going to be the first big challenge, the first big-ticket item the president is going to want to take on?
MIKE ALLEN, "THE WASHINGTON POST": All of them.
Wolf, what we are hearing from this White House is that they're going to move aggressively on lots and lots of fronts. We're going to have a fire hose coming out of there toward Capitol Hill. Chronologically, I think, quickly, they're going and try do two or three tort reform bills at the very beginning of the term, put defense lawyers back on their heels. The president is going to do an education bill. He's going to try to do Social Security reform.
BLITZER: Let's break that down, because education is important, critically important. But that's not necessarily a big-ticket, controversial item. Tort reform, important. Social Security reform, now, that's important. Simplifying the tax code, that's important.
What I hear is, they're going to create commissions to study that. And you know in Washington, when they create a commission, that's sort of like punting.
ALLEN: Well, this president is going to put some tight deadlines on these. There are some people around him that are dismayed that he has waited until now to appoint this commission to look into how they're going to simplify, reform the tax code.
But we may see them reporting as soon as March. First, you saw from all the choices in the Ed Henry package, they don't yet know what they want to do. But you were there at every campaign speech. The president said the tax code is a complicated mess. That was a big applause line for him. And he feels he's never going to be more powerful. And that's why they're moving quickly on these bills at all one time.
BLITZER: You have studied the presidency, Martha, for a long time. The sense is, the first two years, there's an opportunity to get really something done, especially when you have control of both houses of Congress. The last two years, you sort of become a lame duck. What are the challenges, the pitfalls he faces right now?
KUMAR: Usually, what happens are, the items that are left on your domestic agenda are leftovers from the first term. There are things that are difficult inherently to get through.
So the agenda you're left with is of items that are tough. And if you look at the difference from the first to the last year of an administration and what you get through Congress, you come up with figures like in Reagan's administration, in his first year, he got 82 percent of the items that he had taken a position on. And, in his last year, he got 47 percent. And that's what that's what you're dealing with.
But Bush has an opportunity, because he does have both houses of Congress controlled by his party. And he is the only president that that is true with of the last five, including himself, who have been elected to two terms.
BLITZER: Is there a fear, though -- and there's this widely- reported curse of the second term. Clinton had the Monica Lewinsky scandal, as we all remember. Reagan, in a second term, had Iran/Contra. Nixon, in his second term, had Watergate. Is there a problem in a second term that inherently creates these kinds of problems?
KUMAR: I think that what happens is that it naturally is going to slow down, because you have gotten the things through early on that you could get.
And so, at the end, you're going to have the opposition trying to come in to win for the next election. And so you're going to have those kinds of difficulties. The last year is usually a legacy year. In Eisenhower's case, he spent his last year on the road under the theme of a man of peace. Reagan spent a great deal of time in his last year as well wrapping up with a bow what he had done his previous seven years.
BLITZER: And Clinton spent his last year trying to bring peace to the Middle East.
KUMAR: Yes.
BLITZER: A failed effort, as we all recall.
The Supreme Court could be his first big challenge with the Congress, getting a new chief justice of the United States, if in fact Rehnquist has to step down. How far do you think he'll go in his nomination in terms of potentially setting the stage for a major battle with the Democrats?
ALLEN: Well, you put your finger on a great issue, because we're told that one of the reasons the president isn't expending a lot of energy to reach out to Democrats and try and work with Democrats is they've calculated all that goodwill would go away with the first court fight anyway.
Your viewers saw today General Ashcroft is stepping down. He is likely to be replaced by the White House counsel, Alberto Gonzales. He was a possible Supreme Court pick that would be maybe more confirmable, maybe more acceptable to Democrats. The fact that they're putting him in the attorney general is an indication they plan to go with strong, unyielding conservatives as their nominees. And that's going to be a good, long fight.
BLITZER: You said that Alberto Gonzales is going to be the attorney general?
ALLEN: He, we're told tonight, is the leading candidate to be that.
BLITZER: Really? All right, you have got news for us.
Mike Allen, he often has news for us. And it's good to have it on NEWSNIGHT as well. Thanks very much.
ALLEN: Thanks, Wolf.
BLITZER: Mike Allen joining us.
And Martha Kumar, who, many years when I was covering the White House, she was monitoring all of the developments unfolding there, thanks to you as well.
(CROSSTALK)
KUMAR: Thank you.
BLITZER: When we come back, the latest on Yasser Arafat, his health, but, also, the battle over what happens to his money. And we're talking about a fortune rumored to be tens of millions of dollars, maybe even more.
Also, what once seemed like the eternal symbol of the Cold War, the Berlin Wall, 15 years since it came down.
From Washington and around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to NEWSNIGHT. We're from Washington tonight.
In Paris, the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, clings to life. He's in a coma. That much, we know. His illness, according to Palestinian officials, remains very much a mystery, his burial place a matter of dispute, the strain on his inner circle beginning to show.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SAEB EREKAT, CHIEF PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATOR: We -- we believe in God. And in case the worst will happen, all arrangements will take place here in Ramallah and the Muqata.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: The veteran negotiator Saeb Erekat breaking down at a news conference in Ramallah earlier today.
Whenever death does come, it will bring political consequences, of course.
But, as CNN's John Vause tells us tonight, there's a great deal of worry about another consequence of Yasser Arafat's death. What will happen to his money?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the end, could it have all come down to money? Palestinian sources tell CNN Yasser Arafat never made a will, and for more than a week, his wife, Suha, has been locked in a bitter struggle with Palestinian officials over hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe more.
SHMUEL BAR, FORMER ISRAELI INTEL OFFICER: What Suha wanted to do, apparently, was to get hold of the -- of the money, which was specifically in Arafat's name, because she is his wife, of course, had a claim to part of it. And she knew that the only hold she has, actually, is -- the leverage she has is -- is the body and the burial.
VAUSE: So, how much is Arafat worth? Forbes magazine estimates his wealth around $300 million, but two years ago, Israeli intelligence put the figure at $1. 3 billion, perhaps more.
BASSAM EID, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: Which makes the Palestinians so sick when they are hearing about such a huge amount of money.
VAUSE: For decades, Arafat personally controlled the finances of the PLO. Hundreds of millions of dollars flowed from the Arab rich oil state between 1978 and 1990.
After the Oslo peace accord, billions more were donated from Europe, Japan and the United States, with very little ever reaching ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
Hundreds of millions of dollars were collected by the Israelis, sales tax on goods purchased by Palestinians and deposited into Arafat's personal account at this Tel Aviv bank.
BAR: We actually gave Arafat the money on a personal basis.
VAUSE: Israeli officials believe Suha Arafat received an annual allowance of more than $1 million. And French officials are reportedly investigating the transfer of millions more into her Paris bank account.
SILVAN SHALOM, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER: She got a huge amount of money every month from Yasser Arafat. There are some rumors about close to $1 million each month.
VAUSE: The Israelis believe Arafat made investments around the world, factories, cell phone companies, hotels and real estate.
BAR: All of his money peoples, financial advisers, were in contact with people all over the world, and they got proposals and they invested.
VAUSE: But the weighted bank accounts and investments are so complex and so difficult to trace, chances are not all of it will ever be found.
MUSTAFA BARGOUTI, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: There is a rule of law and I think the rule of law must be applied. And everything that belongs to the Palestinian people must go back to the Palestinian people.
VAUSE (on camera): Arafat never lived a lavish lifestyle. The bulk of the money, according to Israeli intelligence, went to bribes and buying influence. Just a small fraction was spent on guns and bullets. Sometimes loyalty costs a lot more.
John Vause, CNN, Jerusalem.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: One quick update on the terrorism front.
Sources in the intelligence community tell us they're confident, but not entirely certain that the face behind the American-sounding voice on a terror tape that aired last month does, in fact, belong to an American. They believe it's the face of Adam Gadahn of California. He was born Adam Pearlman, converted to Islam and subsequently left the country. Authorities tells us he is wanted for questioning for allegedly serving as an interpreter for al Qaeda. His immediate whereabouts are a mystery.
Up next, a Berlin diary of a moment Berliners and the rest of the world never thought they'd see, the moment the wall came down, 15 years ago today.
From Washington, tonight, this is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Tonight, we mark a milestone in history, one of the truly triumphant moments of the 21st century, the fall of the Berlin Wall 15 years ago tonight. It marked not only the liberation of the East German people, who had been forced to live under communism. The toppling of the Berlin Wall also triggered a series of events that ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet empire, a bloodless revolution that simply stunned the world.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER SOETJE, DIRECTOR, GOETHE INSTITUTE: When we came to the Brandenburg Gate that night, a lot of people were there, youngsters trying to climb up the wall. They were sitting on the wall, dancing, crying, shouting, drinking, trying to bring the wall down.
And it was a deeply emotional, human feeling. Kids, babies, mothers, grandmothers, grandfathers, all kind of people you can imagine were streaming from the East to the West. And they tried to embrace their fellow Germans, fellow Berliners on the other side. And they were absolutely happy. It's unbelievable. Even now, it's hard to describe it. I hardly can do it.
I remember there was an old lady from East Berlin. She came directly to me. She hugs me. And she offered me a glass of champagne. That was unbelievable. And that -- I remember that nearly all the people around me have tears in their eyes because they were so joyful. They had tears of joy.
It was as if all the world will embrace the Berliners. It was triumphant for the human race, for all human beings. This event shows, like, in a nutshell, that it's possible to come together and to combine our efforts for a better future.
CHARLES KUPCHAN, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: What was thrilling to me was that it, No. 1, was unexpected. Almost no one foresaw the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the degree to which that would lead to the end of the cold war.
And, two, it really did bring to a close the great geopolitical divide of the 20th century, leading to the collapse of communism. To some extent, history ran away from the Soviet leadership. Gorbachev intended to create socialism with a nice face. Once the Berlin Wall fell down, history ran away from him, and a revolution from above turned into a revolution from below. And, essentially, the Soviet Union unraveled, completely outside the control of its leadership.
SOETJE: There was a strong feeling of chaos, of anarchy. But nobody feared it, really. It was not fearsome. Joy was the overwhelming feeling that night.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: We'll wrap things up in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: That's it for NEWSNIGHT. Aaron will be back tomorrow night in New York.
I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired November 9, 2004 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, GUEST HOST: Thank you, and to our viewers, our NEWSNIGHT viewers in the United States and around the world, thanks very much for joining us. As Larry said, Aaron Brown is off tonight. He will be back tomorrow.
This is one of those rare moments in the Middle East, when two dramatic developments unfolding right now, could provide a real window of movement toward peace. We can only hope.
I'm referring to events unfolding right now involving Iraqis and Palestinians.
In Iraq, there's the battle for Falluja. Potentially, we are told, a pivotal moment in the effort to bring stability and democracy in that country. If the insurgents are defeated there, that could help set the stage for their defeat elsewhere.
Not far away in the region, there's hope that Yasser Arafat, in his death, might propel the restart of peace negotiations with Israel. That could happen if a new Palestinian leadership emerges, one with which the Israelis and the Bush administration could deal.
In recent days, top Israeli, Palestinian and U.S. officials have suggested in private conversations with me, that that, indeed, is a real possibility, though it's by no means a certainty.
There is an opportunity, they say, on both fronts. And that's certainly dominating so much of the back room deliberations here in Washington.
A busy night ahead, as "The Whip" starts with CNN's Jane Arraf. She's embedded with the U.S. Army.
Jane, the headline.
We'll get to Jane in a moment.
The Pentagon up next. And our Jamie McIntyre, a headline from you, please, Jamie.
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, fierce fighting in Falluja even as U.S. commanders say the resistance is not as stiff as they expected. Does that mean some of the insurgents have slipped away? Or simply that the toughest fighting is yet to come? BLITZER: Up next, CNN's John King, on the beginning of significant changes over at the White House. John, your headline tonight.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, the president, and one of his most controversial cabinet members have been keeping a secret for a week. Tonight, it's out. The attorney general, John Ashcroft, is leaving -- Wolf.
BLITZER: And finally, Yasser Arafat, a medical, political and, yes, a financial story. CNN's John Vause with details tonight and a headline.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Before the body is even cold, an ugly battle over Arafat's millions is under way. And sources tell CNN, Arafat's wife, Suha, has been playing hardball.
BLITZER: John Vause and all of our correspondents, we'll be back with you. That's coming up.
Also in the hour ahead on this program, a detailed look at what -- what is on the president's agenda for the next four years and how it will affect all of our lives.
A check on where the Democrats stand, as well, as they try to regroup from last week and get back in shape for today and election 2008.
Segment seven is a look back 15 years to the day the Berlin Wall started coming down, and the brave new world we ended up with.
All that, much more. First, though, Falluja. Here, once again, our senior Pentagon correspondent, Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A seven-hour firefight in the heart of Falluja's Jolan neighborhood. Marines exchanging heavy fire with insurgents using rocket-propelled grenade and mortars.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Red, red. This is breaker three (ph). We have an engagement down the road was exactly what RPG dialed up (ph) and where the round just came from.
MCINTYRE: Several Marines are wounded. But despite these pictures, U.S. commanders say the overall resistance in Falluja, so far, has been sporadic.
LT. GEN. THOMAS METZ, MULTINATIONAL CORPS, IRAQ: I think the enemy is -- is fighting hard. But not to the death. And I think that they are continuing to fall back.
MCINTYRE: The U.S. and Iraqi troops are finding fewer booby traps than expected. That may be in part to the effective use of air strikes like this one two weeks ago. A 500-pound bomb dropped by a Navy F-18 sets off a chain reaction, taking out a string of roadside bombs lining a main road near Falluja.
So far, commanders say casualties have been light for urban warfare. And the first 48 hours, 10 U.S. and two Iraqi troops were killed, with about two dozen wounded.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Jay, stay out of the streets. Get on the sidewalk. Watch the top and bottom. Watch the windows. Watch everywhere you go. Check the walls.
MCINTYRE: The offensive is ahead of schedule, but many key objectives taken as the outer crust of the insurgent defenses crumbled, under the U.S./Iraqi assault.
Along with the bridges across the Euphrates, the rail station, the hospital, several military buildings and mosques are now secured as the stranglehold tightens on the Jolan district, thought to be an insurgent stronghold.
METZ: I think we're looking at several more days of tough, urban fighting.
MCINTYRE: But General Metz concedes the most-wanted man in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, probably left Falluja, along with his senior leaders.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: And the question is how many people left with him. How many of the 2,000 to 3,000 insurgents the U.S. believed were in Falluja, escaped before the U.S. effectively sealed off the city just two days ago?
Now, heat signatures from infrared imagery indicate that there's still a substantial number of people in the city. But how many of them are enemy fighters, the Pentagon says the next couple of days will tell that story -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Jamie, what are you hearing about U.S. casualties?
MCINTYRE: Well, so far the casualty count we have is fairly low. But the biggest -- the toughest fighting could be coming.
The Pentagon is not releasing any of the names of any of the casualties yet. But we have been getting just some reports, again, about 10 U.S. service members, two Iraqis, several dozen or a dozen or so wounded.
But those figures were from hours ago. And there's been some pretty tough fighting since then. I think we're going to have to expect the casualty toll is going to go up a bit.
BLITZER: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon tonight. Thank you, Jamie, very much. Earlier, we tried to get Jane Arraf at the top of this program. We'll try once again now. Jane is embedded with the U.S. Army's 1st Infantry Division. She's joining us on the phone.
Jane, who is the latest?
JANE ARRAF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The sun is coming up here, in this industrial area of Falluja. This is an area where a lot of the fighters were thought to have been holed up. And this is the area where they have been laying these booby-trapped streets. And these streets...
BLITZER: I guess we're having some serious problems with Jane Arraf's audio. She's embedded on the scene in Falluja. We'll try to fix those problems and get back to the scene as best we can.
Jane Arraf, one of our courageous journalists on the scene of Falluja.
Whatever the ultimate number of casualties may turn out to be, there's a good chance that some of the wounded will end up in Washington at Walter Reed Army Hospital.
Today, the president and the first lady paid a visit. They do this from time to time, Mr. Bush calling the troops a continued inspiration to them and saying his prayers are with them and the forces doing battle in Falluja tonight.
Much more on the battle for Falluja in our next segments. Some analysis and a close-up view of the fighting coming up from a combat photographer also embedded on the ground.
First, though, let's continue with the shakeup over at the White House. Two cabinet secretaries now on the way out. One, a close friend of the president. The other, some would call him a lightning rod.
Once again, here's CNN's John King.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): The attorney general's resignation letter, is dated November 2, election day. Hand-written, he told the president, to keep his plans secret even from top aides, until Mr. Bush decided the time was right for an announcement.
That announcement came a week later, Tuesday night. Along with word a second high profile member of the Bush cabinet, Commerce Secretary Don Evans, also would not be staying on for the second Bush term.
In his five-page letter, Ashcroft voiced pride in the administration's record in fighting terrorism and both corporate and violent crime. But said, "I believe that the Department of Justice would be well-served by new leadership and fresh inspiration." The 62-year-old Ashcroft is a former Missouri governor and senator, an evangelical Christian, a favorite of social and religious conservatives.
Critics accused Ashcroft of being overzealous in his use of the Patriot Act, a post-9/11 tool to fight terrorism. The liberal organization People for the American Way, for example, called Ashcroft one of the most destructive attorneys general in the modern era and said his tenure is marked by a severe erosion of constitutional liberties.
But the president called Ashcroft a key figure in protecting Americans from terrorism and said he has made sure that the rights of Americans are respected and protected.
Potential successors include Larry Thompson, a former top Ashcroft deputy, former Montana governor and Bush campaign chairman Marc Racicot; and White House counsel Alberto Gonzales.
Secretary Evans submitted his resignation Tuesday, one day after the White House made clear chief of staff Andy Card would be staying on to begin the new term.
Evans had made clear during the campaign that four years of commerce was enough and told Mr. Bush in his letter, "I have concluded with deep regret that it is time for me to return home."
Secretary Evans was the chief fund-raiser for the Bush 2000 presidential campaign. The man who held that post this year, Mercer Reynolds, is among those mentioned as potential successors at commerce.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KING: Attorney General Ashcroft says he will stay on until a successor is confirmed. Secretary Evans expected to stay at least into the new year, as well.
And Wolf, as the president mulls his choices to replace them, senior aides say there could be a bit more cabinet turnover before the week is out.
BLITZER: In terms of big names or relatively second-tier cabinet members, any hints whatsoever who may be deciding to move on?
KING: Nothing definitive at all. But we do know that among those making a decision, and we're expecting to have the decision by the end of the week, is the president's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice.
Also some questions as to whether other people that many would consider second-tier cabinet jobs -- those secretaries might disagree -- that might be moving on, as well. But Condoleezza Rice is one person to certainly watch over the next two or three days.
BLITZER: We'll see what happens with Condoleezza Rice and everyone else. And John King will tell us all about it. Thanks, John, very much.
Beyond personnel and personalities, there is policy. The president's agenda for the next four years is not a modest one, by any measure. Mr. Bush says he has big plans. We'll take a closer look. That's coming up in just a few minutes.
Before we do that, however, there is the other side to consider: the agenda of the party out of power. How are the Democrats handling defeat? And what are they doing to regroup?
With that, here's CNN's Judy Woodruff.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JUDY WOODRUFF, HOST, "INSIDE POLITICS" (voice-over): If you had any doubts that John Kerry wants to remain a top player in his dispirited party, check out this picture. Kerry, back on Capitol Hill Tuesday, pow-wowing with the current Democratic leader in the House and her in-coming counterpart in the Senate.
Their goal...
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: Saving civilization as we know it today.
WOODRUFF: Nancy Pelosi was joking. But to Democrats, the state of the party is no laughing matter after losing the White House and seats in the Senate and House.
So, the "Where did we go wrong? What do we do now?" conversations have begun in earnest. Among the big questions: how will Kerry fit in? As statesman? As thorn in President Bush's side? Or once again as presidential candidate?
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's inconceivable to me that anybody's even talking about that stuff right now.
WOODRUFF: But the senator's brother told "The Boston Globe" another Kerry race for the White House is conceivable. For now, he says Kerry will continue to fight for the values and issues he campaigned on.
Another question: who will take the helm of the Democratic National Committee once, as expected, Terry McAuliffe, steps down? Howard Dean says he's looking at the job.
HOWARD DEAN (D), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're not retreating. And we're not giving up. And we're not going to stop fighting.
WOODRUFF: Some Democrats think Dean would bring energy to the party, not to mention his Internet-based network of Deaniacs.
But Dean carries his own baggage. And it's not clear if he wants another shot at the White House in 2008. One top candidate for the DNC post is a strong voice in the growing chorus of Democrats who say the party needs a clearer message that sells in the heartland.
DONNA BRAZILE, FORMER GORE CAMPAIGN MANAGER: We must have enough faith and confidence in what we stand for to clearly advocate for what we believe and not get caught up in polls and focus groups that can switch overnight.
WOODRUFF: Top Kerry campaign advisers acknowledge the message problems but argue that Iraq and social issues wound up driving the race.
One week later, the denial phase of their mourning process, appears to have passed, and reality has hit.
Judy Woodruff, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Just ahead on this program, the retired U.S. Marine Corps General Terry Murray, on the battle for Falluja.
Also, the story from the infantry's point of view, as told in dramatic still photos.
And later, images of a moment that lowered the curtain of one era and ushered in another, the Berlin Wall, 15 years to the day after the fall.
A break first. This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And our deepest condolences to all those U.S. troops.
Having set the scene in Falluja earlier, we want to get another set of eyes on the story. With us now, retired U.S. Marine Corps Major General and CNN military analyst, Terry Murray.
General, thanks very much for joining us.
MAJOR GEN. TERRY MURRAY (RET.), U.S. MARINE CORPS: Thank you.
BLITZER: Is it almost over? Not yet close to being over? What's the latest information you're getting on the battle for Falluja?
MURRAY: I think the assessment right now, Wolf, is that resistance has been a little bit less than we anticipated. We were guessing, were there were 6,000 insurgents or were there 1,000 insurgents?
It appears at this point it may be towards the lower end. Having said that, we've only been at it for two days, which means that we have left a lot of buildings in this city untouched. And I think it's quite likely that, while some of the insurgents left the city, there are others who may have gone underground in the city. And it's going to take several days, I would expect, to go through the city and determine whether there are any more insurgents or terrorists dispersed around town.
BLITZER: And then long after that several day period, assuming you're right, it's going to take a long time to occupy the city and maintain the city. And it's going to require a lot of troops, U.S. and I assume Iraqi personnel, as well.
MURRAY: Absolutely. In fact, I think when the civilians come back and we estimate could be close to a quarter of a million that could be coming back into the city. With them, we're going to see insurgents come back into town.
And then, the question is -- how many troops -- how many boots on the ground will it take to ensure that we maintain control over the city? And to ensure that Zarqawi or someone else doesn't come back and begin to export terrorism, again, from Falluja?
BLITZER: The U.S. hope would be that Iraqi allied forces could do that, could have the brunt of that responsibility. But are they ready for that already?
MURRAY: I think that's crucial. And I do not think they are ready for that yet.
However, when we begin to put security forces in the city, who will stay behind and help to maintain control, I do think that it's absolutely essential that a good percentage of those troops are Iraqi troops.
BLITZER: And what the U.S. and Iraqi forces are doing in Falluja now they're going to have to do elsewhere. There are a bunch of other towns around the Sunni Triangle and elsewhere that are not necessarily under U.S. and Iraqi control.
MURRAY: That's correct. Even in Samarra. We thought we had Samarra fairly well pacified two weeks ago. And the reality is, in the last week, we've had some very serious problems in Samarra. Many people have been killed.
So, we have to anticipate that, in Samarra, potentially Ramadi, like Falluja, we may have to do similar work, as we've been doing in Falluja the last 48 hours.
BLITZER: It sounds like the U.S. is going to need, at least in the short term, leading up to the election schedule for the end of January, thousands more troops.
MURRAY: I think that we've got 138,000 troops in theater right now. I could not begin to estimate what will be required on the ground in Falluja and elsewhere throughout Iraq, in order to maintain the peace. The fact is, I think that Falluja will become a good model for us. We'll have an idea, when we're done with the conventional battle, how many troops it will take on the ground to pacify Falluja. And that becomes, then, a model for other cities.
BLITZER: General Terry Murray, as usual, thanks very much.
MURRAY: Thank you, Wolf.
BLITZER: Jane Arraf, hopefully, we've established contact with her. She's embedded with the U.S. Army in Falluja.
Jane, can you tell us what's happening now?
ARRAF: Well, the sun is coming up. Another day's battle expected. But the fiercest of battles are thought to be over.
We are with Task Force 22 of the 1st Infantry Division. And they were responsible for pushing through many of these defenses (ph), paving the way for the Marines.
We're hear in the industrial section. And this was thought to be an area where foreign fighters had a particularly strong hold. As we can in, in fact, obviously, there are still insurgents here, because they have been shooting at the soldiers that we're with. They've been shooting at the buildings that they're occupying.
The place is totally devoid of civilians. There is not a civilian to be seen in the street. And an official says that it appears insurgents have chased them away, to be able to rig up the -- a series of booby-trapped streets. Homemade bombs that are not far from here.
BLITZER: I ask this question, Jane, because I'm getting a lot of e-mail from our viewers who are concerned about you. How are you doing?
ARRAF: That's so nice. I'm doing absolutely fine. You know, we've -- part of showing viewers reality is kind of going through the same thing that the soldiers and the Iraqi people are going through. So that's what we're trying to do. My cameraman and I thank you.
BLITZER: Jane Arraf, bringing information from a very dangerous location to our viewers in the United States and around the world. Thank you very much.
For all we learn from the experts and the correspondents on the ground, as the war in Iraq goes forward, their words only say so much. Same in the way with even the best videotape.
Sometimes a still photograph says even more. Tonight, moments from Falluja, as seen through the lens of a photographer embedded with the U.S. military.
Luis Sinco of "The Los Angeles Times" and operating with the Marine's 1st Division, 8th Regiment, Charlie Company. He's brave enough to do what he does. What's more: he's brave and sensible enough to say that what he does is scaring him a lot.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LUIS SINCO, PHOTOGRAPHER: I am so happy to be alive and talking to you. Today we came under fire so many times. At one point, there were bullets flying everywhere. The one shot of the guys running across the street, while other guys are laying covering fire, there were bullets coming from all directions, all at once.
And all through the day, all kinds of RPGs and explosions. So, the mood here is, personally, I'm glad to be alive.
These Marines are very excited. We were trying to find a safe house to go into, after a firefight. And, basically, what they do is they kicked down the door and go room-to-room and search everything so that there's no insurgents in the house.
They killed at least three insurgents from the rooftop of the house. And at one point, a half dozen insurgents tried to sneak around the house. They were carrying RPGs and AK-47s. And these guys basically blew them away.
Immediately after we found our first safe house, we left part of the platoon in the safe house and started walking down the street in front of the safe house and immediately came upon two dead insurgents and one wounded insurgent.
And first of all, they basically had to tell everybody to find cover because they thought the wounded insurgent had been booby- trapped. So, one brave Marine went up there and turned him over to see if there were any grenades or explosives planted underneath him. Fortunately, there weren't any.
And so, the two medics went out and tried to help him.
He's just one of the riflemen in the company. And he was fighting very, very hard today and fighting very hard and very bravely. And very effectively.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Luis Sinco, a photographer for "The Los Angeles Times." Thank you, Luis. Thank you so much.
In a moment, the president's agenda. He says he wants to use his political capital to remake taxes, Social Security and much more. How will things change if he does?
And as Yasser Arafat lingers in intensive care, the battle intensifies over his burial and his fortune.
From Washington tonight, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Every administration has plans. This one has big plans. The president says the voters gave him a mandate to make them a reality. If he does, for better or for worse, your life will almost certainly change. So, we're taking a very careful look at what's on the menu. Discussion in just a moment.
First, though, a scene-setter, if you will, covering all the bases, starting with Social Security.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KING (voice-over): This is John King at the White House.
It was a staple of the president's campaign stump speech.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I believe younger workers ought to be allowed to take some of their payroll taxes and put it in a personal savings account.
KING: But Mr. Bush's controversial Social Security proposal is much more an idea than a plan. The president has not, for example, set a percentage of Social Security taxes he thinks younger Americans should be allowed to divert to private accounts or offered an estimate of how much such a dramatic change would cost.
The White House won't say when or even if Mr. Bush will propose specific legislation.
SCOTT MCCLELLAN, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I -- I think it's a little premature to speculate right now.
KING: Some studies suggest the transition could cost as much as $2 trillion. The president opposes raising Social Security payroll taxes and says those nearing retirement age won't face benefit cuts.
But many other key questions are left for the debate to come, including whether to raise the Social Security retirement age, to change how cost of living increases are calculated, and to reduce benefits for younger Americans.
Mr. Bush says it is irresponsible to do nothing. Fifty years ago, there were 15 workers for every person receiving Social Security. Forty years from now, that ratio is projected to be just two to one.
John King, CNN, the White House.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We must reform our complicated and outdated tax code.
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Some conservatives want President Bush to abolish the IRS and replace the income tax altogether. But key allies predict the president will not get radical change in his second term. GROVER NORQUIST, PRESIDENT, AMERICANS FOR TAX REFORM: We are several years away from fundamental tax reform. What we're going to have over the next four years are some baby steps in that direction.
HENRY: Republicans say, look for an end to the estate tax, more cuts in capital gains and corporate taxes and an expansion of IRAs and 401(k)s. But the president is expected to appoint a commission to weight major reforms, like a flat tax, which some conservatives believe would make the system simpler and more fair.
Democrats say they favor simplicity, but warn another proposal, a national sales tax, would be unfair.
REP. CHARLES RANGEL (D), NEW YORK: I just don't see how the American people are prepared to have their taxes increased 20, 30, 50 percent, and to give further relief to the richest people we have in the United States of America.
HENRY: Another problem, every tax loophole the president wants to close has a constituency that doesn't want to see it shut.
Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEAN CALLEBS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Part of President Bush's energy plan for his second term calls for exploratory drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to reduce dependence on overseas oil. He says the untapped area will produce one million barrels a day for 20 years. The U.S. uses about 18 million barrels a day now.
ADRIANA RAUDZENS, SIERRA CLUB: It wouldn't provide oil until about 10 years from now. It would take that long to come online. So it's certainly not a solution for our short-term gas prices or energy prices.
CALLEBS: Bush's 2003 energy measure was scuttled by Democrats and some Republicans, saying the president relied too much on advice from big oil, coal and gas companies. And there's a huge divide between Bush and environmentalists. While he touts the Clear Skies Initiative, critics say it won't improve air quality from burning fossil fuels.
And although the president continues to Bush his Healthy Forest Restoration Act, it calls for thinning and logging national forests.
GOV. BILL OWENS (R), COLORADO: By removing some of that undergrowth, we actually preserve the forest from the forest fire which is otherwise almost inevitable.
CALLEBS: Environmental groups say it's simply a plan that rewards timber companies.
Sean Callebs, CNN, Denver.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Bush sent signals during the campaign, about the various standards he would apply to his judicial selections.
BUSH: Another example would be the Dred Scott case.
FRANKEN: Many consider that a coded message to the anti-abortion movement that he too considers overturning Roe vs. Wade, which legalized abortion, as morally imperative as undoing 1854's Dred Scott ruling, which upheld slavery.
Now, with the illness of Chief Justice William Rehnquist highlighting judicial nominations by the president, a stronger Republican majority is demanding more conservative candidates in the mold of Justices Thomas and Scalia.
RALPH NEAS, PRESIDENT, PEOPLE FOR THE AMERICAN WAY: If that happens, it would precipitate an extraordinary confirmation battle.
FRANKEN: Many battles. Another issue, who gets to go into court.
BUSH: There needs to be balance in our legal system. There must be tort reform.
FRANKEN: It's a staple of the Bush agenda, to limit the right to sue for product liability and medical malpractice. The president has met stiff opposition. But the political balance has softened that opposition.
Bob Franken, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: Up next, we'll talk implications and practicalities and the rest with a senior White House correspondent and a presidential historian.
First, though, a break. This is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Word on this president's plan for the next four years and how well presidents tend to do in their second terms.
With us, Mike Allen. He covers the White House for "The Washington Post." And political scientist Martha Kumar of Towson University in Maryland.
Good to have both of you on the program. Thanks very much.
MARTHA KUMAR, TOWSON UNIVERSITY: Thank you.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We heard the setup for this, Social Security reform, tax reform, environmental issues, the Supreme Court.
What do you think, Mike, is going to be the first big challenge, the first big-ticket item the president is going to want to take on?
MIKE ALLEN, "THE WASHINGTON POST": All of them.
Wolf, what we are hearing from this White House is that they're going to move aggressively on lots and lots of fronts. We're going to have a fire hose coming out of there toward Capitol Hill. Chronologically, I think, quickly, they're going and try do two or three tort reform bills at the very beginning of the term, put defense lawyers back on their heels. The president is going to do an education bill. He's going to try to do Social Security reform.
BLITZER: Let's break that down, because education is important, critically important. But that's not necessarily a big-ticket, controversial item. Tort reform, important. Social Security reform, now, that's important. Simplifying the tax code, that's important.
What I hear is, they're going to create commissions to study that. And you know in Washington, when they create a commission, that's sort of like punting.
ALLEN: Well, this president is going to put some tight deadlines on these. There are some people around him that are dismayed that he has waited until now to appoint this commission to look into how they're going to simplify, reform the tax code.
But we may see them reporting as soon as March. First, you saw from all the choices in the Ed Henry package, they don't yet know what they want to do. But you were there at every campaign speech. The president said the tax code is a complicated mess. That was a big applause line for him. And he feels he's never going to be more powerful. And that's why they're moving quickly on these bills at all one time.
BLITZER: You have studied the presidency, Martha, for a long time. The sense is, the first two years, there's an opportunity to get really something done, especially when you have control of both houses of Congress. The last two years, you sort of become a lame duck. What are the challenges, the pitfalls he faces right now?
KUMAR: Usually, what happens are, the items that are left on your domestic agenda are leftovers from the first term. There are things that are difficult inherently to get through.
So the agenda you're left with is of items that are tough. And if you look at the difference from the first to the last year of an administration and what you get through Congress, you come up with figures like in Reagan's administration, in his first year, he got 82 percent of the items that he had taken a position on. And, in his last year, he got 47 percent. And that's what that's what you're dealing with.
But Bush has an opportunity, because he does have both houses of Congress controlled by his party. And he is the only president that that is true with of the last five, including himself, who have been elected to two terms.
BLITZER: Is there a fear, though -- and there's this widely- reported curse of the second term. Clinton had the Monica Lewinsky scandal, as we all remember. Reagan, in a second term, had Iran/Contra. Nixon, in his second term, had Watergate. Is there a problem in a second term that inherently creates these kinds of problems?
KUMAR: I think that what happens is that it naturally is going to slow down, because you have gotten the things through early on that you could get.
And so, at the end, you're going to have the opposition trying to come in to win for the next election. And so you're going to have those kinds of difficulties. The last year is usually a legacy year. In Eisenhower's case, he spent his last year on the road under the theme of a man of peace. Reagan spent a great deal of time in his last year as well wrapping up with a bow what he had done his previous seven years.
BLITZER: And Clinton spent his last year trying to bring peace to the Middle East.
KUMAR: Yes.
BLITZER: A failed effort, as we all recall.
The Supreme Court could be his first big challenge with the Congress, getting a new chief justice of the United States, if in fact Rehnquist has to step down. How far do you think he'll go in his nomination in terms of potentially setting the stage for a major battle with the Democrats?
ALLEN: Well, you put your finger on a great issue, because we're told that one of the reasons the president isn't expending a lot of energy to reach out to Democrats and try and work with Democrats is they've calculated all that goodwill would go away with the first court fight anyway.
Your viewers saw today General Ashcroft is stepping down. He is likely to be replaced by the White House counsel, Alberto Gonzales. He was a possible Supreme Court pick that would be maybe more confirmable, maybe more acceptable to Democrats. The fact that they're putting him in the attorney general is an indication they plan to go with strong, unyielding conservatives as their nominees. And that's going to be a good, long fight.
BLITZER: You said that Alberto Gonzales is going to be the attorney general?
ALLEN: He, we're told tonight, is the leading candidate to be that.
BLITZER: Really? All right, you have got news for us.
Mike Allen, he often has news for us. And it's good to have it on NEWSNIGHT as well. Thanks very much.
ALLEN: Thanks, Wolf.
BLITZER: Mike Allen joining us.
And Martha Kumar, who, many years when I was covering the White House, she was monitoring all of the developments unfolding there, thanks to you as well.
(CROSSTALK)
KUMAR: Thank you.
BLITZER: When we come back, the latest on Yasser Arafat, his health, but, also, the battle over what happens to his money. And we're talking about a fortune rumored to be tens of millions of dollars, maybe even more.
Also, what once seemed like the eternal symbol of the Cold War, the Berlin Wall, 15 years since it came down.
From Washington and around the world, this is NEWSNIGHT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to NEWSNIGHT. We're from Washington tonight.
In Paris, the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, clings to life. He's in a coma. That much, we know. His illness, according to Palestinian officials, remains very much a mystery, his burial place a matter of dispute, the strain on his inner circle beginning to show.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SAEB EREKAT, CHIEF PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATOR: We -- we believe in God. And in case the worst will happen, all arrangements will take place here in Ramallah and the Muqata.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: The veteran negotiator Saeb Erekat breaking down at a news conference in Ramallah earlier today.
Whenever death does come, it will bring political consequences, of course.
But, as CNN's John Vause tells us tonight, there's a great deal of worry about another consequence of Yasser Arafat's death. What will happen to his money?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In the end, could it have all come down to money? Palestinian sources tell CNN Yasser Arafat never made a will, and for more than a week, his wife, Suha, has been locked in a bitter struggle with Palestinian officials over hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe more.
SHMUEL BAR, FORMER ISRAELI INTEL OFFICER: What Suha wanted to do, apparently, was to get hold of the -- of the money, which was specifically in Arafat's name, because she is his wife, of course, had a claim to part of it. And she knew that the only hold she has, actually, is -- the leverage she has is -- is the body and the burial.
VAUSE: So, how much is Arafat worth? Forbes magazine estimates his wealth around $300 million, but two years ago, Israeli intelligence put the figure at $1. 3 billion, perhaps more.
BASSAM EID, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: Which makes the Palestinians so sick when they are hearing about such a huge amount of money.
VAUSE: For decades, Arafat personally controlled the finances of the PLO. Hundreds of millions of dollars flowed from the Arab rich oil state between 1978 and 1990.
After the Oslo peace accord, billions more were donated from Europe, Japan and the United States, with very little ever reaching ordinary Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
Hundreds of millions of dollars were collected by the Israelis, sales tax on goods purchased by Palestinians and deposited into Arafat's personal account at this Tel Aviv bank.
BAR: We actually gave Arafat the money on a personal basis.
VAUSE: Israeli officials believe Suha Arafat received an annual allowance of more than $1 million. And French officials are reportedly investigating the transfer of millions more into her Paris bank account.
SILVAN SHALOM, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER: She got a huge amount of money every month from Yasser Arafat. There are some rumors about close to $1 million each month.
VAUSE: The Israelis believe Arafat made investments around the world, factories, cell phone companies, hotels and real estate.
BAR: All of his money peoples, financial advisers, were in contact with people all over the world, and they got proposals and they invested.
VAUSE: But the weighted bank accounts and investments are so complex and so difficult to trace, chances are not all of it will ever be found.
MUSTAFA BARGOUTI, PALESTINIAN POLITICAL ACTIVIST: There is a rule of law and I think the rule of law must be applied. And everything that belongs to the Palestinian people must go back to the Palestinian people.
VAUSE (on camera): Arafat never lived a lavish lifestyle. The bulk of the money, according to Israeli intelligence, went to bribes and buying influence. Just a small fraction was spent on guns and bullets. Sometimes loyalty costs a lot more.
John Vause, CNN, Jerusalem.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: One quick update on the terrorism front.
Sources in the intelligence community tell us they're confident, but not entirely certain that the face behind the American-sounding voice on a terror tape that aired last month does, in fact, belong to an American. They believe it's the face of Adam Gadahn of California. He was born Adam Pearlman, converted to Islam and subsequently left the country. Authorities tells us he is wanted for questioning for allegedly serving as an interpreter for al Qaeda. His immediate whereabouts are a mystery.
Up next, a Berlin diary of a moment Berliners and the rest of the world never thought they'd see, the moment the wall came down, 15 years ago today.
From Washington, tonight, this is NEWSNIGHT on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Tonight, we mark a milestone in history, one of the truly triumphant moments of the 21st century, the fall of the Berlin Wall 15 years ago tonight. It marked not only the liberation of the East German people, who had been forced to live under communism. The toppling of the Berlin Wall also triggered a series of events that ultimately led to the collapse of the Soviet empire, a bloodless revolution that simply stunned the world.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETER SOETJE, DIRECTOR, GOETHE INSTITUTE: When we came to the Brandenburg Gate that night, a lot of people were there, youngsters trying to climb up the wall. They were sitting on the wall, dancing, crying, shouting, drinking, trying to bring the wall down.
And it was a deeply emotional, human feeling. Kids, babies, mothers, grandmothers, grandfathers, all kind of people you can imagine were streaming from the East to the West. And they tried to embrace their fellow Germans, fellow Berliners on the other side. And they were absolutely happy. It's unbelievable. Even now, it's hard to describe it. I hardly can do it.
I remember there was an old lady from East Berlin. She came directly to me. She hugs me. And she offered me a glass of champagne. That was unbelievable. And that -- I remember that nearly all the people around me have tears in their eyes because they were so joyful. They had tears of joy.
It was as if all the world will embrace the Berliners. It was triumphant for the human race, for all human beings. This event shows, like, in a nutshell, that it's possible to come together and to combine our efforts for a better future.
CHARLES KUPCHAN, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: What was thrilling to me was that it, No. 1, was unexpected. Almost no one foresaw the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the degree to which that would lead to the end of the cold war.
And, two, it really did bring to a close the great geopolitical divide of the 20th century, leading to the collapse of communism. To some extent, history ran away from the Soviet leadership. Gorbachev intended to create socialism with a nice face. Once the Berlin Wall fell down, history ran away from him, and a revolution from above turned into a revolution from below. And, essentially, the Soviet Union unraveled, completely outside the control of its leadership.
SOETJE: There was a strong feeling of chaos, of anarchy. But nobody feared it, really. It was not fearsome. Joy was the overwhelming feeling that night.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BLITZER: We'll wrap things up in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: That's it for NEWSNIGHT. Aaron will be back tomorrow night in New York.
I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington.
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