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Awaiting Press Conference on Iran Nuclear Deal; Christians Attacked in Kenya. Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired April 02, 2015 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:30:06] KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Ahead AT THIS HOUR, bloody siege at a university in Kenya. Witnesses say Christians are being killed. Unverified reports. A lot to weed through. The terror group claiming responsibility for the attack has targeted Christians in the past. What do they want now? What's the motivation behind this?

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[11:34:07] BOLDUAN: We're getting word out of Switzerland that reporters are being gathered as we speak in order to go to a press event being called. They've just been given notice. A lot of details, clearly, we don't have them yet. This could be very significant as to why. This is concerning the Iran nuclear talks that have been going on arduously for months, for weeks, and in the past days have been really picking up. They are now two days past a self- imposed deadline between Western leaders and Iran over Iran's nuclear program. They're two days past it, as I've mentioned, a deadline that a lot of folks in the United States have noticed and taken note of.

What is happening, though, behind the scenes? Just recently, we heard from Iran's foreign minister who hit a very positive, optimistic note saying that we have made significant progress. His French counterpart also saying we're just a few meters from the finish line. Where is the finish line? What are we expected to hear. We do know simply, at this point, very little leaking out of the high-level talks, everything is important. The fact that reporters are being gathered and they're told there will be a press event and it is imminent, we believe, at this hotel in Switzerland, this could be major development.

But when it comes to what are we going to hear? Lawmakers say they need details about what a general framework would be, which was the target for them to hit in this deadline. Is there going to be details? Is there going to be a general statement? What does that mean? All of that, many questions, all eyes on this hotel in Switzerland. Could have breaking news coming our way with regard to the Iran nuclear negotiations that have been on going.

We'll take a quick break and we'll be right back.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

BOLDUAN: Breaking news coming out of Switzerland. We're awaiting a press conference or a press event of some kind very soon with regard to the Iran nuclear negotiations that have been on going for months and have definitely picked up steam in the past couple of days.

Let's bring in chief national security correspondent, Jim Sciutto, who has been following all this.

Jim, you've been over there. You're in Washington right now. What do you make of this? Reporters are being gathered. Not a lot of details leaking out. What are you hearing from your sources?

[11:39:38] JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: I'll tell you, Kate, they may surprise us with some remarkable progress, an announcement of a hard-and-fast agreement on particular issues. What I've been hearing is you'll get a very general statement here, something along the lines of a statement of goals rather than a hard-and-fast agreement, something that both sides, including the Iranians, have signed on specific issues. More likely a general statement, a promise for more talks, a justification for those more talks based on the progress they've made on those issues.

But, listen, all we've been hearing these last several days is that some of the key sticking points remain sticking points. Just to mention a couple of them again, Iranians want sanctions lifted immediately. The U.S. and the West want to keep them in their back pocket to keep Iran's feet to the fire as this agreement goes forward. Even just last minute, over the weekend, you'll remember, Kate, one of the issues observers thought had been settled, the idea of shipping Iran's current stockpile of enriched uranium, and it is big, we're talking hundreds of pounds of this stuff, out of the country, particularly to Russia to be reprocessed into something much safer, can't be then used for a nuclear weapon, the Iranian side over the weekend said, you know what, we're not going to do that. I talked to Iranian officials as well that said that's not on the table. You heard a lot of back and forth from the U.S. side as to whether it still was. But still, clearly, that issue had not been decided. So I think what you'll hear, general statement, we've made progress, here are issues we've made progress on, other issues need to be resolved, and we'll take advantage of the ensuing three months, this later June 30th deadline for a final agreement to talk more.

But keep in mind, just one more point I would make is this, Kate, this interim deadline for a framework agreement, a political agreement, whatever you want to call it, whatever they were calling it, was self- imposed. The reason it was put in by the West and the U.S. was to test the seriousness and progress of the talks, to test whether or not Iran was willing to make concessions, to test whether Iran could make progress on some of the harder issues. The fact it is unlikely you have something set in stone at this time -- again, keep in mind they could surprise us on the positive -- the fact that you don't have it is at least a concerning sign as to whether you're going to get it in the next three months. These have been delayed a couple of times for several months and, this week, several times for 24 hours in succession, it's a sign these talks have a long way to go. BOLDUAN: There's some conversation that this self-imposed deadline,

while it was put in place to test the seriousness of the Iranian negotiators, that Iran flipped it on its head and has been using it against the United States to say do you want to deal or not. That's all part of the dynamics between the many nations involved.

Jim, stick with me.

Jim is in Washington.

Let's get over to Switzerland where our global affairs correspondent, Elise Labott, is standing by outside of these talks.

Elise, what are you hearing from your end?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the journalists were just called to a press conference, Kate. There are about 650 journalists here, so they have to sweep them and everything. It's been taking a while to get everybody in security. So now they have them on the buses. They're there. It will take a couple of hours.

And we understand there will be some kind of announcement. As we've been saying, it clearly won't be something the U.S. had envisioned when the process first started about some sort of framework deal. The Iranians were very clear, they did not want to put anything in writing. The supreme leader has said nothing in writing until June 30th. The Iranian foreign minister has been lowering expectations the whole time, saying there is not going to be a, quote, unquote, "deal out of these talks." We're going to have a general understanding of the backbone of what the agreement to be negotiated in June would be. I spoke to him this morning and he repeated that. He said we'll probably come out tonight with a statement. It will be a statement of understanding and then we'll start drafting the agreement.

So they say they have a general understanding of the way forward, the path forward. But it's really an agreement to keep talking -- Kate?

BOLDUAN: Let's go to the White House then. Jim Acosta is there for us.

Jim, what are you hearing from the White House? Are you hearing they're all getting prepared to be disappointed that things haven't moved far enough along?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Kate, I think one thing that is interesting is the president was supposed to depart for some domestic trips any minute now. That has been pushed back. That has been delayed. He was supposed to head to Kentucky later this afternoon and to Utah for some messaging events here at the White House. That departure has been delayed. So you can read some tea leaves there.

One thing I will say to bounce off of what Elise and Jim were just saying is that the White House, they may not get everything they want here, but it appears they're going to get something, and that is going to come, Kate, after what has been some pretty veiled threats almost coming from this administration. You'll recall earlier this week, a couple of times this week the White House Press Secretary Josh Ernest has said there are options on the table for this president outside the diplomatic process. There is the option of further sanctions and the option of military operations. All these operations are on the table.

It's interesting in that people have been talking about this deadline all week of March 31st. Yes, the White House put themselves in a bind by adhering to that deadline and the Iranians used it for some leverage during these talks. I think, at the end of the day, it may have been some of these threats coming out of the White House that the Iranians had to agree to something, we had to see something actually get on paper or at least be spoken publicly about in the next hour or two.

But keep in mind, as Jim and Elise were saying, the June 30th deadline when they're supposed to get to these technical details of a nuclear deal, that is really the big deadline that is looming on the horizon. This is just a hurdle in the process. They've been struggling mightily to get over that hurdle, Kate. It appears they may just clear it here in the next several minutes or so.

[11:46:00] BOLDUAN: Jim, stick with us as.

Jim Sciutto in Washington for us as well.

Let's get back over to Switzerland where Elise Labott is standing by.

Elise, we keep hearing what you're saying, there have been a lot of taming down of expectations of what we're going to hear, a general statement. I'm sure a lot of folks are wondering why are they coming out, why make a statement at all? What are you hearing?

LABOTT: I don't even think they know what they're going to say, Kate. I'm just getting e-mails from a source saying we're not there yet, there's progress, but we're not there yet, tonight, we hope. So even as they're getting all these journalists, which will take several hours to get everyone swept in, they're still negotiating, dotting the "I"s and crossing the "T"s. So I think they want to come out with as much as they possibly can tonight. Whether it will be enough, as we've been saying, for Congress, who is very skeptical, we don't know. But clearly it's not going to be everything that, as Jim said, the Obama administration wants. But it's going to be something that the Iranians can take home that said there's progress, we're moving forward. But they don't want to give out too many details of what they've agreed to because they feel hardliners within Iran would effectively kill any chances of a deal in June.

But the fact that I'm hearing that the parties are still meeting, that the P5-Plus-1, these world powers, along with Iran, are supposed to meet again means they're still not done and they still don't know what they're going to say. It sounds like they're in agreement on the way forward, but not how to present it.

BOLDUAN: Fascinating. Fascinating how this is unfolding.

Jim Sciutto, you've been following this closely. What do you think about the motivation of calling this event, calling -- bringing the reporters together and then maybe making a general statement or political statement, as you were saying? What's the motivation behind making it at all if they're not going to offer details? When I spoke to members of Congress, they say they want details, anything short of details is not enough, which then suggests they want to move forward with more sanctions coming from the United States. Who is the target audience here?

SCIUTTO: Kate, I've got to tell you, the reason they're announcing something is because they've got to announce something. The deadline was Monday. We're here on Thursday. And they know the pressure coming from Congress and also from inside Iran, no question. It's hard to see based on the levels of skepticism here in Washington, not only on the GOP side but on the Democratic side of this deal, it's difficult to see how a general statement is going to tamp down the moves from people like Senator Bob Corker -- they already have legislation teed up to impose additional sanctions on Iran. It's hard to see how that is satisfied with a general agreement. So they're going to have a tough sales job going certainly here on Capitol Hill.

Another point I would make, in the original outline -- I was in Vienna in November when they extended the talks yet again to the March 31st date and then to June 30th. The plan was political agreement March 31st and then technical details in the ensuing three months. We're stretching the definition of technical here by putting many of these big-picture, difficult, key essential issues under the category, under the umbrella of technical. We're still talking about major political issues that, at least to our current knowledge, have yet to be decided. There are a lot of words that had to be redefined in these negotiations. One is deadline. Lots of deadlines have been passed.

(LAUGHTER)

One is technical. The other one is agreement. We were talking about a political agreement today. It doesn't look like you're going to get something that you and I would call an agreement, more a general statement of progress and here is what else we have to work on. Again, they could surprise us, but that's what I've been hearing from both sides inside these talks. I think it's consistent with others there. But we're leaving a lot for the final chapter of these talks to come to what would be, by any estimation, a very difficult agreement. We're not in a technical stage here. You're still very much in the hard part of these negotiations.

[11:50:03] BOLDUAN: Especially when and if U.N. sanctions are lifted and if they would return and when they would. That doesn't seem so technical. That seems to be more of a political conversation.

Jim Sciutto, in Washington for us. Jim, thanks so much.

Jim Acosta at the White House, Elise Labott in Switzerland there for us as well, thank you all so much.

We're going to be watching this very, very closely, breaking news coming to you out of Switzerland on the Iran nuclear talks.

We'll have more after the break.

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BOLDUAN: Bloodbath at a University in Kenya.

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BOLDUAN: 15 are dead, 550 others still unaccounted for. Some reports say gunmen are separating Christians from Muslims, killing or capturing the Christian students and setting the Muslims free. CNN has not independently verified those reports. The attackers are holding hostages at one of the dormitories at Garysa (ph) University College. Hundreds of students running for their lives. The al Qaeda- linked group, Al Shabaab, is claiming responsibility for the attack.

CNN counterterrorism analyst, Philip Mudd, is joining me, a former CIA counterterrorism official.

Philip, it's great to see you.

Unfortunately, talking about this, what looks like a massively coordinated attack. What's your take? Take us inside the intel world right now and what you're looking at. This massive attack, 15 deaths, but some 500 plus people still accounted for.

[11:55:03] PHILIP MUDD, CNN COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYST: What they're trying to do, in theory, and what they'll present in terms of propaganda is to say, we al Shabaab are defenders of the faith. We are cleansing this territory of people they would call non-believers, that is Christians, so that we can establish a place to practice the true faith. The reality here is pretty straightforward and that is that this is about revenge. Al Shabaab had been under a great deal of pressure over the past four or five years from African forces in Somalia. Al Shabaab has been on offensive against African forces. Those forces include Kenyans. So while Shabaab is going to say this is about cleansing this territory for the faith, what this is really about is telling the Kenyan government, if you keep intervening in Somalia, this is the price you're going to pay.

BOLDUAN: When you look at it, by all accounts, al Shabaab has been kind of overrun in recent years.

MUDD: Yeah.

BOLDUAN: Clearly, take a look at 2013 the attack on the Westgate Mall. They still have the ability to hit these so-called soft targets.

MUDD: There's still pockets of activity for Shabaab in southern Somalia, especially. There's still a long way to go for the African Union. This is also the problem we face in the United States of how do you police an entire community when you can have anywhere between one and five people, in this case five or six people, take over an entire facility. People are going to talk about intelligence failure, how do you not find this kind of al Qaeda cell after you had that horrific Westgate Mall attack. My answer's going to be, I'm not sure we could find this kind of cell in New York. So don't tell me you could find it in Somalia or Kenya. If five people want to get together with minimal communication with a headquarter cell and do something like this with some basic weapons, pretty hard to defend against that.

BOLDUAN: That gets to my next question. The Kenyan president today called for 10,000 recruits to report for training, saying the country had suffered a shortage of security personnel. Sure sounds like Kenya isn't capable of handling this.

MUDD: One of the problems is going to be the border. Just like the problems with the border we've seen, for example, with Turkey and Syria. If you want to try to defend against Somalis, that is al Shabaab, coming across the border from Somalia to Kenya and you want to tell me that's easy, even with 10,000 troops, I'll say look at Texas, California and New Mexico and try to keep Mexican cartels out. Defending a border in No-man's-land against five people coming across when not only is that organization that is al Shabaab, well organized, you can presumably bribe the border guard, I don't care how many people you give me, that's virtually impossible.

BOLDUAN: Philip, take me inside American intel on this situation, if you will. Most recently they made to call threatening lone-wolf attacks op malls in the United States, on soft targets in the United States. That got a lot of headlines. We haven't seen anything come from it. What is American intelligence looking into this? Is this a group looking for attention or a group that really threatens the United States?

MUDD: I think both. I think that statement they made about attacking the United States was to gather attention. Any time you have a group that has two characteristics that I look at as an intelligence professional, number one, do they have the capability to hit the U.S.? Of course, they do. They have American recruits in the U.S. People have the capability to come back to the West because they have good documentation. So you have capability that's already established. Number two, you have intent. That's not common in terrorist groups, that combination of capability and intent.

What you want to do, to answer your question about how intelligence thinks about this, is identify the leadership of the organization, that is al Shabaab, involved in recruiting and training Westerners. Those people are the targets of drone attacks, which have been really successful against Shabaab. You have to differentiate all the ground people in Shabaab, who are involved in things like attacks we're seeing today, and focus on that upper tier who are recruiting Westerners and you have got to take them out.

BOLDUAN: Philip Mudd, always great to see you. Thanks so much.

MUDD: Thank you. Sure.

[11:54:02] BOLDUAN: Of course.

All right, it's been a busy hour and a busy week so far. Thank you all for joining me AT THIS HOUR. We'll be back tomorrow.

"LEGAL VIEW" with Ashleigh Banfield starts in one minute.

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