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At This Hour

Biden Admin.: Russia Could Invade Ukraine Within "Hours"; Queen Elizabeth Carries Out "Light Duties" Despite COVID Diagnosis. Aired 11-11:30a ET

Aired February 21, 2022 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:00:00]

KRISTIN FISHER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Kristen Fisher in for Kate Bolduan. Dire warnings, top U.S. officials say Russia could invade Ukraine in just hours. Is the time for a diplomatic solution running out?

And royal concern after Queen Elizabeth tests positive for the coronavirus. The 95-year-old is back at work despite her diagnosis.

And basketball brawl, Michigan's coach sparks a fight after losing a game, why some are saying both coaches should be disciplined.

But we begin with a last ditch diplomatic effort to prevent war from breaking out in Eastern Europe. President Biden has agreed in principle to meet with Vladimir Putin if Russia does not invade Ukraine, the potential summit brokered by France's president, CNN has learned that the U.S. sees quote, no slowdown in Russia's preparations for a potential attack. In fact, top U.S. officials this morning say an invasion could be just hours away.

New Satellite images show Russian troops moving closer to Ukraine's border. And U.S. intelligence indicates that orders have already been given to Russian commanders to proceed with an invasion. Nearly 75 percent of Russia's conventional forces are now postured against Ukraine. The fears of an invasion are leading thousands of Ukrainians to flee, boarding buses to leave their homes. But let's begin our coverage with CNN's Jim Sciutto live in western Ukraine near the border with Poland with his new reporting. Hi, Jim.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Kristin, you have the talk of diplomacy in public is offered now of a summit between Putin and Biden, then you have the facts on the ground here in Ukraine and around Ukraine. And those facts on the ground are not promising. First, you have word today from the U.S. military that its latest intelligence assessment shows that preparations and planning by the Russian military around the Ukraine border is not slowing down despite this talk.

We reported last night that commands have been given to tactical commanders in the field to go forward with an invasion. That is one of many indicators that the U.S. is looking for. They haven't seen all of them. But it's an important one. They're still waiting for other signs for instance, large scale electronic warfare here jamming, large scale cyberattacks. They have not seen those indicators. But the orders going to tactical commander certainly significant, then as you mentioned, right now, and this is from remarkable statistic really, Russia has some three quarters of its conventional forces postured against Ukraine, and that includes their main combat unit. It's called a battalion tactical group. It includes 35 of their 50 manned aerial surveillance systems, as well as some 500 fighters and fighter bombers.

It's remarkable for a country of this size to have so much of its military targeted here. And just one final note, new satellite images that show that those forces arrayed around this country have moved in recent days, many of them going from Garrison's wherever they're sort of hanging out, right, and the advance of possible orders to battle positions. All those signs, Kristin, together, give U.S. officials pause and say, well, we're hearing talking diplomacy. We're not seeing it on the ground.

FISHER: Yes, those satellite images really speak for themselves. Jim Sciutto, thank you so much.

Well, the Kremlin says there are no concrete plans for Putin and Biden to meet. But the Russian leader convened his National Security Council as tensions rise. CNN's Nic Robertson, live in Moscow with more. So Nic, what are you hearing from Russian officials today?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, Kristin, a huge amount happening here today, this piece of huge sort of television theater of Putin meeting with his National Security Council, a meeting that was an edited version of the sort of closed door session earlier, but intended to signal that President Putin is getting very close to recognizing the pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country, getting ready to recognize their independence.

If he does that that signals an end to his efforts down the political track with the government in Kyiv. He was hearing from all his top officials on that, but other things as well from Putin, Putin saying that he'd asked President Macron if I have this meeting with President Biden that we're talking about, what is it that the United States was going to put on the table additionally, for me, and he said the French President couldn't tell me.

We had -- we've heard from the foreign minister here today saying that he was going to check in with the French foreign minister to find out what might be on offer from the United States. We have President Putin saying that the United States had indicated to him it might be willing to put a moratorium on Ukraine joining NATO. Now already the White House has pushed back about that.

We have the foreign minister saying that he's going to meet Secretary Blinken in Geneva on Thursday. We also have the foreign minister saying that he's going to meet with the French foreign minister in Paris on Friday and that would be a step for President Putin to have a meeting with President Macron. So a lot of things in flux at the moment but the country of Russia is being prepared for the potential of Russia to recognize that bit of Ukraine with a pro-Russian separatists' to recognize their independence, and that changes everything. Kristin?

[11:05:28]

FISHER: Yes. What exactly might be on the negotiating table right now, if indeed this Biden-Putin meeting does go forward? And that's a big shift right now. Nic, thank you so much.

Well, top U.S. officials are saying this morning that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be just hours away. The President is being regularly briefed on this crisis. CNN's John Harwood live at the White House. John, the warnings across the Biden administration are sounding increasingly dire. I mean, almost by the hour.

JOHN HARWOOD, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: No question about it. And the President is getting briefed, as you mentioned a moment ago by top national security officials this morning, as the entire world faces this agonizing wait with situations developing on parallel tracks. On the one hand, you have the form of diplomacy, Emmanuel Macron, shuttling between the two sides, trying to arrange a meeting between Putin and Biden.

You've got Secretary of State Tony Blinken scheduled to meet Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, later in the week. But of course, those meetings will only happen if there is no invasion. And at the same time, Russia is doing precisely what the U.S. officials have been saying that they're doing that is laying out transparently flimsy pretext and justifications for an attack, as Vladimir Putin did this morning.

And also preparing for what could be a strike against Ukraine that would be brutal, according to U.S. officials, and it could occur at any moment. Here's Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAKE SULLIVAN, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: We believe that the world must mobilize to counter this kind of Russian aggression, should those tanks roll across the border, as we anticipate they very well may do in the coming hours or days.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Hours, really?

JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: Yes, really. I mean, we've been saying for a long time now, John, that a Russian attack can come any day now. Well, today might be that day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARWOOD: But of course, until the attack comes, there is hope for some alternative resolution. I talked the other day to Fiona Hill, the eminent Russian policy expert who's advised multiple presidents. And she says Russia thought the United States and the West were going to crumble in the face of this continued threat for Russia over Ukraine. The West did not crumble. Now Putin is recalculating. And we're all waiting to see as the White House is what that recalculation produces. Kristen?

FISHER: John, thank you.

Back with me, CNN's Jim Sciutto in Ukraine, also with us, CNN global affairs analyst Kimberly Dozier, and she's a contributor to Time Magazine. Jim, you're on the ground, and your new reporting shows that Russia has not slowed down its military preparations, despite this diplomatic effort. I mean, in fact, you got these top U.S. officials warning just this morning that a Russian invasion could be literally hours away. So what do you think that we should be paying the most attention to this morning?

SCIUTTO: Well, we should remember that just a few days ago, we were in the same place, right? There was a buildup. There were warnings from the U.S. about imminent invasion. And then there was a sudden talk of diplomacy for a moment that there was a sort of Hollywood production of tanks supposedly moving away from the border in the South. As it turned out, they really just moved across the bridge, right, into a position, frankly, closer to Ukrainian territory.

So we've seen this talk of diplomacy, but at the same time, no movement in Russia's stated positions, which for the U.S. side, at least based on public statements, leaves negotiations going nowhere, because the Russian positions are ones that the U.S. have called non- starters, for instance, banning Ukraine from ever joining NATO. So, you know, this diplomatic talk has surfaced before but the preparations have continued. And that's why I think you hear John Kirby, you hear Jake Sullivan, and others say, hey, this could still happen at any time.

FISHER: And Kim, this proposed summit between President Biden and Vladimir Putin is contingent on Russia not invading Ukraine. Listen to what retired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman told CNN's John Berman just this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN (RET.), FORMER EUROPEAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: If we don't see this turn within next several days into a violent military confrontation, which is I think where we are. I think we're frankly past the diplomacy stage. I don't see Vladimir Putin really biting on anything, because the Western Ukraine won't bend. They won't bend on the fundamental demands. Therefore, I think Vladimir Putin will resort to force.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FISHER: Kim, do you think he's right, are both sides past the point of diplomacy now?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, the fact that Moscow is still saying yes to a meeting is one positive sign. But it's also a move in this high stakes poker game that Putin has been playing to see how much he can get without committing any troops. Look, by putting troops all around Ukraine, we don't know if maybe his only intent is just to seize those breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine, just the way Russia seized Crimea.

[11:10:23]

So far publicly, it hasn't said we need to go in and defend the Russian speaking people. Though there have been moves towards that end. In my inbox from the Russian embassy here in Washington, D.C., I got an e-mail that was mailed to a lot of different journalists with the single title genocide. And in it, it had files purporting that Russian speaking Ukrainians were being abused by the Ukrainian government.

So it does seem that they are preparing the ground for something. So why not go up couple more days, and let the West think if they only gave Russia something towards its reasonable demands, peace might be possible.

FISHER: And that's exactly what the national security adviser has been saying is that we are starting to see exactly the things the Biden administration has been warning about for so many weeks now. Jim, something else CNN has learned that the U.S. has credible information that Russia has been identifying Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps if it invades Ukraine. I mean, the Kremlin is calling it absolute fiction, but how seriously is the U.S. taking this intelligence and what can be done to stop something like that?

SCIUTTO: They're taking it seriously enough to report it, right, to the United Nations. And in fact is for weeks now, U.S. officials have told me that part of the invasion plan is political. There's a military side of it. And then there's political side and attention. And there are KGB, or FSB, as they're now known agents deployed in this country, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, with the intention of taking over political institutions in this country.

In other words, making plans for having a country to run under Russian rule, replacing Ukraine's own officials. And then the added detail of not just replacing them, but killing some of them, perhaps, and rounding them up and putting them in camps, it's as if we were times transported back to 1939 when we discuss these kinds of tactics and plans, it's remarkable. But we should remember Vladimir Putin has committed similar crimes in recent years before our eyes, both in this country and outside his country's borders. So it's not farfetched, right? He's proven, willing and capable of doing it.

FISHER: Well, and you talk about being brought back to 1939 that really reminds me something that Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thinks that Russia is planning the biggest war in Europe since 1945. And Ukraine's president is calling for sanctions to be imposed on Russia now to stop an invasion, not after a potential invasion. But, you know, the U.S. Senate still debating sanctions. So Kim, do you think the West is doing enough right now to deter Russia?

DOZIER: Well, the Ukrainians certainly don't think so. And look, from Putin's perspective, just by having some disputed territory in Ukraine and also in Georgia, he already knows he's keeping either of those countries from joining NATO. So he's obviously looking ahead towards legacy whether he wants to go with a decapitation strategy in Kyiv, in Ukraine and just make it look like his protectorate. What he may not be banking on is how NATO will solidify its ranks and a lot of those temporary deployments of U.S. troops and others to places like Poland, those countries are going to likely ask those troops to stay because if Putin takes Ukraine, what's next?

FISHER: That's a great point. And we will watch and see what happens in the next few hours and days. Kim, Jim, thank you both.

[11:14:07]

Coming up, Queen Elizabeth tests positive for COVID 19 as the palace says that she will carry out her duties, the latest on her condition, next.

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FISHER: Turning now to the pandemic and some good news, Australia reopened its borders today to tourists for the first time in nearly two years. The arrivals area at Sydney Airport hosted a party to celebrate the end of some of the world's strictest lockdown measures. Some travelers haven't seen their loved ones since the Coronavirus pandemic began.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CINDY MOSS, AUSTRALIAN TOURIST: I'm just happy to see them. It's so long. And it was such a big thing to be able to get over here. So we're so excited.

LAUREN POTTER, AUSTRALIAN TOURIST: As soon as they opened up the borders, I just knew I can finally come and see my family and attend my brother's wedding like on March 4th, so that's why I'm really excited about the whole family together again. It's very emotional.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FISHER: Australia's still requiring travelers to be fully vaccinated and show a negative COVID test before they're allowed to enter the country. Also new this morning Queen Elizabeth is carrying out quote, light duties, after testing positive for COVID, Buckingham Palace says the 95-year-old monarch is experiencing mild symptoms. CNN's Max Foster live outside London with more. And Max, are we getting any kind of updates from Buckingham Palace about the Queen's condition?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Not at the moment only that she's receiving medical attention. She's nearly 96 years old and she's also had some mobility issues as well recently. But under the current regulations which are actually being updated I think by Boris Johnson later on today. But under the current regulations, she does have to self-isolate so she's on her own but the palace is very keen to emphasize that she is carrying out light duty, so paperwork at her desk remote meetings as we understand it.

[11:20:15] So I think in terms of updates, we'll probably get some images of her at her desk. And we'll have to read into that, that she's doing OK, considering the circumstances really, but this is what we know. We know that she tested positive. On Sunday, we, the media, we're told pretty much straight away about that. And she went into isolation. She experienced mild cold like symptoms. So she is suffering even if it is just a bit. It's not asymptomatic for her. A role source also telling us the Queen is not the only person in a circle to test positive. That suggests that there has been a breakout of COVID here at Windsor Castle.

That's how she caught it as opposed to meeting any other family members. So we're waiting on some updates. She's really 96 years old. But people are concerned, frankly, because of her age but the palace very much putting the message out there, that considering the circumstances, there's not too much to worry about at this point.

FISHER: And we wish her a speedy recovery as the rest of her country comes out of some of its strictest lockdown precautions, thank you so much.

And joining me now is CNN medical analyst, Dr. Jonathan Reiner. He's a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University. So Doctor, you know, the Queen is 95 years old, almost 96. And she hasn't been in great health in recent months. So how do you feel about the prognosis for the Queen given her recent health issues and her vaccination status?

DR. JONATHAN REINER, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: Well, she's very fortunate that she's vaccinated. We know that she was vaccinated, at least received her first dose last January. We're presuming that she's received a full course including a boost. But there's been no confirmation of that.

Ordinarily, folks who are in the Queen's demographic represent the greatest threat group for death. We know that in terms of people who died from this virus, about 50 percent of the deaths occur in folks over the age of 75. And when you look at the people, vaccinated people who have died from this virus, the overwhelming majority, about 85 percent have been over the age of 65. So we certainly wish the Queen our best.

I'm assuming that the Queen has been treated aggressively with Paxlovid. Paxlovid is in many ways a game changer. It's an oral antiviral drug given in over five days that can reduce the risk of mortality by about 90 percent. And although there hasn't been public word of that, I'm assuming that the Queen's physicians have administered Paxlovid to her.

FISHER: Well, if we jump across the pond now, here in the U.S., we're seeing a very steep decline in cases and hospitalizations as the Omicron variant wanes. I mean, just look at this, this graphic right here. But you think that these numbers don't give us a complete picture? Why is that?

REINER: Well, first of all, it's great news that cases are dropping very rapidly, the United States, we declined well over 80 percent from our peak daily case rates at the beginning of January. But we were at such a massive level. We're still at a fairly high level, about 100,000 people a day are testing positive.

Now mind you, that's with reported tests. Many people now test positive with at home tests, which are not, you know, reported to public health databases. So the number is almost certainly much larger than that. So there's still a lot of virus around. If you look at the last time, we sort of claimed victory over this virus, which was the beginning of last summer, if you look at the end of June, we had dropped to as low as 7,000 cases per day. So we're about 13, 14 times higher than that now, which is the major reason not I think there's still too much virus around a little bit too early to claim victory, and too early to drop our mitigation efforts.

FISHER: If we take a look at Israel, they started giving fourth doses of the COVID vaccine in December for patients over 60. So we're starting to get to that point here in the U.S. I mean, how soon do you think that the FDA and the CDC could green light a fourth dose?

REINER: It's a very interesting question. I think they're looking at how rapidly cases are dropping in the United States. But they're also following how rapidly protection from a booster doses is dropping in the United States. You know that a booster significantly increases the effectiveness of these vaccines both in terms of preventing infection and preventing serious illness like hospitalization or death.

[11:25:13]

But that additional benefit also starts to wane after four to five months, and we started boosting people in September. So many people, particularly the earliest groups that we boosted, which included the elderly, are now going to start to see some waning effectiveness. So the CDC and FDA are going to have to balance the benefit to an additional fourth dose, which we do think is safe with the necessity to do that, given the fact that cases are dropping so quickly in the United States.

I think it's very reasonable to assume that at some point, everyone is going to be re dosed with another dose of this vaccine and whether that comes late in the spring or early summer or the beginning of the fall, I think it's safe to assume that we're not done vaccinating for this virus.

FISHER: Yes, probably. Time to roll up our sleeves and get another shot here pretty soon, Doctor, thank you so much. And of course we wish the Queen well.

And coming up, we're going to go back to Ukraine because Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin says that Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine's capital is quote, highly likely. We have a live report from Kyiv, next.

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