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CNN Crossfire
Off and Running For '08
Aired February 09, 2005 - 16:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE. On the left, Paul Begala; on the right, Robert Novak.
In the CROSSFIRE: the next race for the White House. New numbers look at who leads the pack for 2008. Right now, it's a New York race, with Senator Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic pack and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Republicans' choice. Who else makes the list? And what are they doing to make themselves more attractive to voters? Handicapping the '08 elections today on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, Paul Begala and Robert Novak.
ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: Democrats already are lining up to run for president in 2008. And guess who is leading? A new poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton way in front of the Democratic field. That may make Senator Clinton happy, but not half as happy as it makes Republicans.
(LAUGHTER)
PAUL BEGALA, CO-HOST: Well, President Clinton certainly has a nice ring, though, doesn't it, Bob? And, by the way, how can Republicans attack Hillary as a liberal when she has the same position on tax cuts as John McCain, the same position on abortion as Arnold Schwarzenegger, the same position on gun control as Rudy Giuliani?
Of course, we are undeterred by how ridiculously early it is to have a such a conversation, so we will debate campaign 2008 today in the CROSSFIRE.
But we will begin, as we always do, with the best little political briefing in television, our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
When she spoke at the elite Institute of Political Sciences in Paris yesterday, Condoleezza Rice was the poised, polish, professional we have come to know. She was also the disingenuous, duplicitous double-dealer we have also come to know. "The Washington Post"'s Keith Richburg reports that the audience at the speech, including the questioners and even the questions themselves, had been carefully screened and censored to make Secretary Rice look good.
"The Post" reports that Dr. Rice's henchmen vetted all the questions before they were asked of her. And at least one question was censored outright. President Bush, of course, also generally prefers to appear in carefully screened settings usually surrounded by worshipful, robotic Republicans. Mr. Bush and Dr. Rice apparently like to preach freedom. They just don't like to practice it.
NOVAK: You know, far be it from me, Paul, to give you political advice. But let me tell you something. Condoleezza Rice is very popular. And since I know you always have the best interests of the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates at heart, lay off her. Not a good idea to pound on Condi Rice.
BEGALA: Not a good idea to have a secretary of state who can't answer honest questions in a forum with free people. I will pound on her as long as she continues to duck tough questions.
(APPLAUSE)
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, considered one of the coming stars of the Democratic Party, this week compared President Bush's budget cuts to terrorist attacks on America. Yes, he really did.
After noting that the 9/11 terrorists attacked -- quote -- "our metropolitan cores, two of America's great cities" -- end quote -- Mayor O'Malley said that -- quote -- "with a budget axe, President Bush is attacking America's cities. He is attacking our metropolitan core" -- end quote.
O'Malley is pondering to run for governor of Maryland and obviously wants to be as anti-Bush as possible. The Democrats are entitled to be just as vile as they want. But please spare us whining about how partisan the Republicans are.
BEGALA: I think Mayor O'Malley should never have compared budget cuts to 9/11.
NOVAK: Thank you.
BEGALA: You're right. But the budget cuts have endangered our homeland security. And mayors like Mayor O'Malley are facing the realities that port security is cut by President Bush, cops are cut by President Bush. Even the Transportation Security Agency is going to lose much of its authority to screen passengers.
So, there is a real risk. He shouldn't have used that terminology, but mayors are worried about their ability to defend our country.
NOVAK: Don't be naive, Paul. O'Malley has got a very tough primary fight coming up.
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: And he wants to be as mean as possible. And he succeeded.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: Well, speaking of Mayor O'Malley, he's dominating the political news today.
An aide to Bob Ehrlich, the Republican governor of Maryland, has resigned after admitting he spread rumors on a right-wing Web site that O'Malley, Democratic mayor of Baltimore, had an extramarital affair. O'Malley is a father of four. He's been married for 14 years. And he angrily denied the charge, defended himself, his family and his marriage against the Republican slime machine.
Many observers believe O'Malley, who "Esquire" magazine called the best young mayor in America, may well fulfill Mr. Novak's prediction and challenge Governor Ehrlich in the 2006 governor's race. Governor Ehrlich has refused to apologize to Mayor O'Malley for the conduct of the Republican sleaze merchant Governor Ehrlich put on the state's payroll.
Apparently, Republicans love to talk about the Ten Commandments. I just wish they would honor the eighth, thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: You know, Paul, let me intrude with that little disposition with some facts. In the first place, the person who gave out this information, which I assume is false, is a public relations man in a state department in the government. He doesn't work for the governor. And he has resigned under pressure.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Just let me -- no, wait a minute.
BEGALA: Go ahead.
NOVAK: You got yours. Let me...
BEGALA: Yes, sir. Go ahead.
NOVAK: He has resigned under pressure. He is no longer there.
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: And the states -- man for the governor said he was extremely troubled by this, that this was unacceptable. And it was condemned by the Republican lieutenant governor. So all of your stuff is just baloney.
BEGALA: That's not true. This hatchet man worked for Ehrlich on Capitol Hill. He worked for Ehrlich in the campaign. He works for Ehrlich in the state government. And it's a disgrace for the Republicans to smear a man like that.
NOVAK: He doesn't work for anybody now.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: One of the shrewdest Democrats in the House of Representatives had some very good advice for Howard Dean to follow as the party's new national chairman.
House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer told Dr. Dean to leave policy to the elected officials. The fact that Congressman Hoyer went public with this advice reflects how much reasonable Democrats expect Dean to be the mouth that roars as party leader. Dean didn't campaign for this job to deal with nuts and bolts. His former campaign manager, Joe Trippi, predicts that the doctor will leave the DNC before 2008 to run for president again.
The party has just given him a terrific platform to demagogue from and maybe even do a little screaming.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: I disagree. I think Governor Dean did run to work on nuts and bolts. That what he says he is going to work on, is party building in the states. Steny Hoyer is right. A party chairman doesn't set policy. That's for elected officials, like Congressman Hoyer and other leaders.
NOVAK: What about what Joe Trippi says?
BEGALA: I don't know whether Governor Dean is going to run. He says he's not.
NOVAK: Trippi says he is. And he was his campaign manager.
BEGALA: By the way, his media adviser is going to be out here in just a few minutes.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Should we ask him maybe?
BEGALA: Steve McMahon. I think probably we should ask him about that. But, no, I don't think Dean is going to run.
But, speaking of that, up next on CROSSFIRE, CNN does in fact have the very first poll of the 2008 presidential campaign. Poll numbers that came out in the last hour show a Rudy vs. Hillary rematch could make up the next race for the White House.
And then, later, how wardrobe malfunctions in Virginia may cost you 50 big ones, if you can reach down into your pants pocket, that is.
Stay with us. ANNOUNCER: Join Carville, Begala and Novak in the CROSSFIRE. For free tickets to CROSSFIRE at the George Washington University, call 202-994-8CNN or visit our Web site. Now you can step into the CROSSFIRE.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
BEGALA: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.
Even though President Bush is only just a few weeks into his second term, we at CNN believe it's never too early to start thinking about tomorrow, or, in this case 1,400 tomorrows from today.
The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll of Democrats and Republicans puts Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudy Giuliani at the top of prospective candidates in their respective parties for the 2008 presidential election.
To debate this in the CROSSFIRE today, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos and Democratic strategist Steve McMahon.
(APPLAUSE)
BEGALA: It's good to see you.
NOVAK: Mr. McMahon, welcome.
STEVE MCMAHON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: How are you, Bob?
NOVAK: Thanks for coming in.
Let me just put up on the screen this whole Gallup poll of the Democrats, Senator Clinton 40 percent, Senator Kerry, 25 percent, Senator Edwards, 17 percent, someone else, 6 percent. Is that just name identification or is that really where the heart of the party is, in your opinion?
MCMAHON: I think it might be a little bit of both.
There's certainly no -- you know, Hillary Clinton is a well-known figure in our party. And so it's not name I.D. It would be foolish to explain it that way. On the other hand, Senator Kerry is also a pretty well-known brand in the party. But it looks to me like you have got three strong candidates there. And you have got Hillary sitting there in a position where she has got 40 percent, but you put the Kerry-Edwards ticket back together, it's at 42. So it could be a robust primary season.
NOVAK: I don't know whether they are strong, Steve. They sure are liberal. "The National Journal" ratings have John Kerry as the most liberal member of the Senate, 97 percent liberal, 4 percent conservative, John Edwards the second most liberal member, 95 percent liberal, 6 percent conservative. And Hillary Rodham Clinton, she's pretty liberal, 89 percent liberal, 11 percent conservative. Does that mean that the Democrats, that: We aren't really interested in winning elections; we like that good old-fashioned liberal religion and we're just going to -- if you don't like it, we're going to give it to you again?
MCMAHON: No, I don't think so, Bob. Democrats are perfectly capable of making their own decision about these things. They have over time.
And people used to say Bill Clinton was liberal. But Bill Clinton did some remarkable things. It was Bill Clinton who did welfare reform. It was Bill Clinton who balanced the budget, which conservatives like to say they favor. It was Bill Clinton who created the strongest economy and more jobs than any president since -- in this century.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: To Steve's point, Hillary is moving to the right. She came out last week for abstinence education to reduce teen pregnancy. I think the bad news is, she was directing her remarks to Bill at the time.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: She, is however, the most admired woman in America, very rare for a woman who is not the first lady. And Laura Bush is a very wonderful woman. But it's very rare that the first lady does not win that. And yet Hillary has won it something like nine out of the last 10 years.
But closer to home, she's been very successful in her new adopted state of New York. Many people thought she didn't have a chance to win. She not only won. She is downright beloved. A new poll out today from Quinnipiac College asked citizens in her state, is Hillary honest? Sixty-four percent, yes. Do you approve of the job she's doing? Sixty-five percent, yes. Is she a strong leader? Seventy- four percent, yes.
NOVAK: That was just New York women.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Just New York women being asked.
BEGALA: No, not women. New York -- those are people she works for.
Pretty high approval ratings, aren't they?
CASTELLANOS: Tremendous approval ratings.
And, look, I think Hillary is a serious contender in the Democratic primaries and in the general election. We have 29 women who have been governors in the U.S. We have 59 women who are serving now in the House of Representatives, 15 women in the U.S. Senate, nine of whom are Republicans, by the way. So the time that a woman can be president of the United States may not be far off. Now, whether it's Hillary or not, certainly, these numbers prove she is good at politics, like her husband. But they don't necessarily prove she's good at government and fits the philosophy of the country outside the state of New York.
BEGALA: That is what an election might find out, should she decide to run. But she is running for reelection to the Senate. The two most popular Republicans in New York, really two of the most popular Republicans in the country are Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. Hillary beats him by nine points. And George Pataki, the long-serving and popular governor, she beats him in a poll by 26 points.
Now, that's pretty impressive, to be defeating giants like Giuliani in a reelection, wouldn't it?
CASTELLANOS: But then when you see numbers, national numbers, on general elections with Hillary Clinton and everyone against almost any other Republican, Hillary seems to cap out in the low 40s. She is a very polarizing figure.
We just saw an election where George Bush was a very polarizing figure. You either love him or hate him, but you knew where he stood. I think America has that same kind of fix on Hillary Clinton. It's going to be very difficult for her to transform herself. Bill was a much more flexible political animal.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Let me challenge how -- Alex, how good a politician she is and ask Steve that -- I was looking at a lot of quotes by Senator Clinton. I don't want to take the ones before the election. Everybody says odd things in a campaign.
But this is a quote on January 24, four days after the inauguration: "America's leaders don't have a vision. And the economy may be on the brink of collapse."
You know, nobody thinks this economy is on the brink of collapse. I could give you sodium pentathol and you would say it's not on the brink of collapse. Somebody who says something like that, where is this new moderation we hear about from Hillary?
MCMAHON: Well, let's just look at the facts.
When President Clinton left office, we had the biggest surplus in the history of the world. And we now have the largest deficit in the history of this country.
NOVAK: Do you think the economy is on the brink of collapse?
MCMAHON: I don't think it is on the brink of collapse, Bob.
NOVAK: Of course it isn't.
MCMAHON: But if we continue borrowing... NOVAK: That's what she says, though.
MCMAHON: If we borrow $2 trillion to privatize Social Security and plunge our nation even further into debt and we continue to run a war in Iraq and perhaps a war in Afghanistan or Iran that's off budget and we just move these things off budget, it's possible for this country, if its spending habits continue the way they have been going, to become Argentina.
CASTELLANOS: Excuse me. This is Democrats talking about spending habits?
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: No, talking about deficits, Alex. Is this a Republican, my old friend Alex, defending these deficits?
CASTELLANOS: Deficits -- well, listen, we have had a rough economy, inherited. The economy is coming back. We have had a lot of months of growth now. And we do happen to be at war. So there are some things that are taxing the economy right now.
BEGALA: Let's move it back off the economy, back on to polling numbers, because you are...
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: I told you this backstage. I will just tell you in public, you are one of the most brilliant people in the Republican Party, a really great strategist.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: I'm curious -- it's not even a setup. I'm curious as to your take on the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll among Republicans of who they prefer for the post-Bush era. Vice President Cheney has taken himself out of the race. And usually vice presidents try to succeed the president.
Here is who your party likes best. Rudy Giuliani leads the pack, John McCain a relatively close second at 29 percent. Jeb Bush, who I'm told does not want to run for president -- at least his brother says that -- at 12, and Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader of Tennessee...
CASTELLANOS: He says it.
BEGALA: A very weak fourth place at 6 percent.
What does that tell you about your party?
CASTELLANOS: Well, I think one of the things it tells us that we're not really looking at is that it's a very different Republican Party and a new Republican Party that George Bush has built.
There's a new world order out there. Republicans are now talking about issues like Social Security. Republicans are touching the third rail. Education reform, Republicans are leading on. Republicans have become the party of new ideas and the party that is expanding. Democrats is -- seems to be the party that doesn't really have anything new to put on the table and is contracting. As the Republican Party grows, yes, it has become a little bit more diverse. But we call that freedom.
NOVAK: We are going to have to take break, Alex.
When we come back with CROSSFIRE, we'll ask whether Dr. Dean -- you remember Howard -- still has his eye on the White House in '08.
And, after the break, a warning to Iran for the U.S.: The diplomatic clock is ticking. Wolf Blitzer reports on what may be next if Iran doesn't halt its nuclear program.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting from Washington.
Coming up at the top of the hour, President Bush issues another stern warning to Iran: Don't develop a nuclear weapon. But can diplomacy alone make the Iranians back down? Are members of the U.S. Army Reserves, National Guard being treated like second-class citizens? We will talk with Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Lindsey Graham. They say the answer is yes.
And he's being dubbed a mystery man in the White House press corps. Was he really a reporter or did he have another agenda?
All those stories, much more, only minutes way on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS."
Now back to CROSSFIRE.
NOVAK: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE; 2008 could be a Republican dream, with the Democrats picking Howard Dean to run the party and Hillary Clinton as a candidate for president. Is it too soon to celebrate?
Joining us, Steve McMahon, Democratic strategist, and Republican strategist Alex Castellanos.
BEGALA: Alex, let me read you a statement. This is a game I learned from Mr. Novak. And you try to guess who said it.
"I'm pro-choice. I'm pro-gay rights. There are people in the Republican Party who don't agree with that. There are people who disagree with it." Who do you suppose said that?
CASTELLANOS: Well, the last guy to say it was Paul Begala. But beyond that...
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
BEGALA: I'm quoting Rudy Giuliani. The front-runner in your party...
CASTELLANOS: Yes.
BEGALA: ... has the most liberal position you can have on gay rights and on abortion. Can he win?
CASTELLANOS: The party of diversity, that's us. You always know it.
But Rudy -- if you take another national survey -- I saw actually a Princeton survey. If you ask Republicans if Rudy Giuliani should run for president or not, 69 percent said yes.
BEGALA: But with the same positions as Hillary or Howard Dean...
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: They won't vote for him, but they think he should run.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: I'm curious. If Howard Dean and Hillary are big liberals because they're for abortion rights and...
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: For Giuliani, it depends a great deal what the agenda is next election.
If we're still talking about security, here's a guy who stood on the rubble at 9/11 with George Bush and I think has run a government bigger than France. So he may be a very strong...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Steve...
MCMAHON: If he's the nominee, though, do you think they would put all those anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot?
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: You know, there's something else...
BEGALA: That's a good question.
CASTELLANOS: There's something else about the Republican Party, though. There's a libertarian streak on the right. They say, leave me alone. Don't let the government run my life.
And Giuliani I think would have strong appeal there.
BEGALA: Interesting. NOVAK: Steve McMahon, you were a prime factor in the Dean campaign. And one of your colleagues, the campaign manager, Joe Trippi, as I mentioned when we started this program, says don't pay any attention to Howard saying he's not going to run in '08 if he's elected national chairman, which he will be. Joe says he's going to run.
What do you think of that?
MCMAHON: I don't know when the last time Joe talked to Howard is. But if he had spoken to him recently, he would have told him pretty clearly that he's not running.
He has said that from the beginning. He says that today. He'll say that in 2008. The fact is, we're going to have strong candidates. I think, by that time, the nation is going to have figured out that these Republican policies have not made us stronger. They've made us weaker. And our economy I think could at that point...
NOVAK: Let me ask you about John Edwards. He is a guy who is campaigning hard, because he has been up in New Hampshire. He couldn't even carry his own state of North Carolina for the ticket. I think he would have been beaten for reelection.
Tell me, what is the appeal of this guy? What does he bring to the table?
MCMAHON: Well, I think the first thing he brings is, he's comfortable in his skin and he understands the South. And that's a very attractive thing for Democrats...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: He lost the South. They got clobbered.
MCMAHON: My memory, Bob, is that John Kerry's name was on the top of the ticket, not John Edwards. And it might have been a different situation. We don't know. We don't know for sure.
NOVAK: You remember Lyndon Johnson? He carried the South...
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: We don't know for sure, but John Edwards would be a strong candidate. Hillary Clinton is going to be tough to get past. And if John Kerry decides to run again, he'll be a strong candidate. And there are others, Mark Warner.
NOVAK: How about Al Gore?
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: Al Gore would be a strong candidate. Frankly, Howard Dean would be a strong candidate. All these people...
(CROSSTALK) CASTELLANOS: We can only dream.
BEGALA: Well, we can all also dream about John McCain, because I would love to see a Republican who repudiates Bush's tax cuts run in the primaries. How would he do, an anti-tax cut Republican?
CASTELLANOS: Well, I think John McCain would do very well with that platform, especially if he ran in the Democratic primaries.
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: But I think he has got to decide which party he wants to run in.
BEGALA: That will have to be the last word. Alex Castellanos, thank you very much. Steve McMahon, thank you both for a fun discussion of something that's not going to happen for four more years. But we'll have you back in four years to see if you were right.
Next on CROSSFIRE, plumbers and hipsters better look out. Politicians in Virginia are about to hit you below the belt.
Stay with us and we'll translate.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: Virginia lawmakers are trying to deal with people who end up sharing a bit too much of their fashion choices.
Members of the House of Delegates in Virginia have OKed a bill that would fine people who wear their pants so low that their underwear shows. A lot of kids wear low-rise jeans and baggy pants that often don't leave very much to the imagination. If the bill becomes law, anyone displaying his or her underpants in a lewd or indecent manner would face -- get this -- a $50 fine.
I guess, since Virginia just passed a big tax increase, the state's lawmakers need more money and now are ready to start to institute dress codes.
BEGALA: It is ridiculous.
And here's a hint for the kids. If the law says you can't show your underpants, don't wear underpants. Go commando.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: And wear your pants how you like it. Don't let these Republicans run your life.
(APPLAUSE)
From the left, I am Paul Begala. That's it for CROSSFIRE. NOVAK: From the right, I'm Robert Novak. Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE.
"WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
(APPLAUSE)
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Aired February 9, 2005 - 16:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE. On the left, Paul Begala; on the right, Robert Novak.
In the CROSSFIRE: the next race for the White House. New numbers look at who leads the pack for 2008. Right now, it's a New York race, with Senator Hillary Clinton leading the Democratic pack and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the Republicans' choice. Who else makes the list? And what are they doing to make themselves more attractive to voters? Handicapping the '08 elections today on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, Paul Begala and Robert Novak.
ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: Democrats already are lining up to run for president in 2008. And guess who is leading? A new poll shows Hillary Rodham Clinton way in front of the Democratic field. That may make Senator Clinton happy, but not half as happy as it makes Republicans.
(LAUGHTER)
PAUL BEGALA, CO-HOST: Well, President Clinton certainly has a nice ring, though, doesn't it, Bob? And, by the way, how can Republicans attack Hillary as a liberal when she has the same position on tax cuts as John McCain, the same position on abortion as Arnold Schwarzenegger, the same position on gun control as Rudy Giuliani?
Of course, we are undeterred by how ridiculously early it is to have a such a conversation, so we will debate campaign 2008 today in the CROSSFIRE.
But we will begin, as we always do, with the best little political briefing in television, our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
When she spoke at the elite Institute of Political Sciences in Paris yesterday, Condoleezza Rice was the poised, polish, professional we have come to know. She was also the disingenuous, duplicitous double-dealer we have also come to know. "The Washington Post"'s Keith Richburg reports that the audience at the speech, including the questioners and even the questions themselves, had been carefully screened and censored to make Secretary Rice look good.
"The Post" reports that Dr. Rice's henchmen vetted all the questions before they were asked of her. And at least one question was censored outright. President Bush, of course, also generally prefers to appear in carefully screened settings usually surrounded by worshipful, robotic Republicans. Mr. Bush and Dr. Rice apparently like to preach freedom. They just don't like to practice it.
NOVAK: You know, far be it from me, Paul, to give you political advice. But let me tell you something. Condoleezza Rice is very popular. And since I know you always have the best interests of the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates at heart, lay off her. Not a good idea to pound on Condi Rice.
BEGALA: Not a good idea to have a secretary of state who can't answer honest questions in a forum with free people. I will pound on her as long as she continues to duck tough questions.
(APPLAUSE)
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, considered one of the coming stars of the Democratic Party, this week compared President Bush's budget cuts to terrorist attacks on America. Yes, he really did.
After noting that the 9/11 terrorists attacked -- quote -- "our metropolitan cores, two of America's great cities" -- end quote -- Mayor O'Malley said that -- quote -- "with a budget axe, President Bush is attacking America's cities. He is attacking our metropolitan core" -- end quote.
O'Malley is pondering to run for governor of Maryland and obviously wants to be as anti-Bush as possible. The Democrats are entitled to be just as vile as they want. But please spare us whining about how partisan the Republicans are.
BEGALA: I think Mayor O'Malley should never have compared budget cuts to 9/11.
NOVAK: Thank you.
BEGALA: You're right. But the budget cuts have endangered our homeland security. And mayors like Mayor O'Malley are facing the realities that port security is cut by President Bush, cops are cut by President Bush. Even the Transportation Security Agency is going to lose much of its authority to screen passengers.
So, there is a real risk. He shouldn't have used that terminology, but mayors are worried about their ability to defend our country.
NOVAK: Don't be naive, Paul. O'Malley has got a very tough primary fight coming up.
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: And he wants to be as mean as possible. And he succeeded.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: Well, speaking of Mayor O'Malley, he's dominating the political news today.
An aide to Bob Ehrlich, the Republican governor of Maryland, has resigned after admitting he spread rumors on a right-wing Web site that O'Malley, Democratic mayor of Baltimore, had an extramarital affair. O'Malley is a father of four. He's been married for 14 years. And he angrily denied the charge, defended himself, his family and his marriage against the Republican slime machine.
Many observers believe O'Malley, who "Esquire" magazine called the best young mayor in America, may well fulfill Mr. Novak's prediction and challenge Governor Ehrlich in the 2006 governor's race. Governor Ehrlich has refused to apologize to Mayor O'Malley for the conduct of the Republican sleaze merchant Governor Ehrlich put on the state's payroll.
Apparently, Republicans love to talk about the Ten Commandments. I just wish they would honor the eighth, thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: You know, Paul, let me intrude with that little disposition with some facts. In the first place, the person who gave out this information, which I assume is false, is a public relations man in a state department in the government. He doesn't work for the governor. And he has resigned under pressure.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Just let me -- no, wait a minute.
BEGALA: Go ahead.
NOVAK: You got yours. Let me...
BEGALA: Yes, sir. Go ahead.
NOVAK: He has resigned under pressure. He is no longer there.
(BELL RINGING)
NOVAK: And the states -- man for the governor said he was extremely troubled by this, that this was unacceptable. And it was condemned by the Republican lieutenant governor. So all of your stuff is just baloney.
BEGALA: That's not true. This hatchet man worked for Ehrlich on Capitol Hill. He worked for Ehrlich in the campaign. He works for Ehrlich in the state government. And it's a disgrace for the Republicans to smear a man like that.
NOVAK: He doesn't work for anybody now.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: One of the shrewdest Democrats in the House of Representatives had some very good advice for Howard Dean to follow as the party's new national chairman.
House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer told Dr. Dean to leave policy to the elected officials. The fact that Congressman Hoyer went public with this advice reflects how much reasonable Democrats expect Dean to be the mouth that roars as party leader. Dean didn't campaign for this job to deal with nuts and bolts. His former campaign manager, Joe Trippi, predicts that the doctor will leave the DNC before 2008 to run for president again.
The party has just given him a terrific platform to demagogue from and maybe even do a little screaming.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: I disagree. I think Governor Dean did run to work on nuts and bolts. That what he says he is going to work on, is party building in the states. Steny Hoyer is right. A party chairman doesn't set policy. That's for elected officials, like Congressman Hoyer and other leaders.
NOVAK: What about what Joe Trippi says?
BEGALA: I don't know whether Governor Dean is going to run. He says he's not.
NOVAK: Trippi says he is. And he was his campaign manager.
BEGALA: By the way, his media adviser is going to be out here in just a few minutes.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Should we ask him maybe?
BEGALA: Steve McMahon. I think probably we should ask him about that. But, no, I don't think Dean is going to run.
But, speaking of that, up next on CROSSFIRE, CNN does in fact have the very first poll of the 2008 presidential campaign. Poll numbers that came out in the last hour show a Rudy vs. Hillary rematch could make up the next race for the White House.
And then, later, how wardrobe malfunctions in Virginia may cost you 50 big ones, if you can reach down into your pants pocket, that is.
Stay with us. ANNOUNCER: Join Carville, Begala and Novak in the CROSSFIRE. For free tickets to CROSSFIRE at the George Washington University, call 202-994-8CNN or visit our Web site. Now you can step into the CROSSFIRE.
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BEGALA: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.
Even though President Bush is only just a few weeks into his second term, we at CNN believe it's never too early to start thinking about tomorrow, or, in this case 1,400 tomorrows from today.
The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll of Democrats and Republicans puts Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rudy Giuliani at the top of prospective candidates in their respective parties for the 2008 presidential election.
To debate this in the CROSSFIRE today, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos and Democratic strategist Steve McMahon.
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BEGALA: It's good to see you.
NOVAK: Mr. McMahon, welcome.
STEVE MCMAHON, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: How are you, Bob?
NOVAK: Thanks for coming in.
Let me just put up on the screen this whole Gallup poll of the Democrats, Senator Clinton 40 percent, Senator Kerry, 25 percent, Senator Edwards, 17 percent, someone else, 6 percent. Is that just name identification or is that really where the heart of the party is, in your opinion?
MCMAHON: I think it might be a little bit of both.
There's certainly no -- you know, Hillary Clinton is a well-known figure in our party. And so it's not name I.D. It would be foolish to explain it that way. On the other hand, Senator Kerry is also a pretty well-known brand in the party. But it looks to me like you have got three strong candidates there. And you have got Hillary sitting there in a position where she has got 40 percent, but you put the Kerry-Edwards ticket back together, it's at 42. So it could be a robust primary season.
NOVAK: I don't know whether they are strong, Steve. They sure are liberal. "The National Journal" ratings have John Kerry as the most liberal member of the Senate, 97 percent liberal, 4 percent conservative, John Edwards the second most liberal member, 95 percent liberal, 6 percent conservative. And Hillary Rodham Clinton, she's pretty liberal, 89 percent liberal, 11 percent conservative. Does that mean that the Democrats, that: We aren't really interested in winning elections; we like that good old-fashioned liberal religion and we're just going to -- if you don't like it, we're going to give it to you again?
MCMAHON: No, I don't think so, Bob. Democrats are perfectly capable of making their own decision about these things. They have over time.
And people used to say Bill Clinton was liberal. But Bill Clinton did some remarkable things. It was Bill Clinton who did welfare reform. It was Bill Clinton who balanced the budget, which conservatives like to say they favor. It was Bill Clinton who created the strongest economy and more jobs than any president since -- in this century.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: To Steve's point, Hillary is moving to the right. She came out last week for abstinence education to reduce teen pregnancy. I think the bad news is, she was directing her remarks to Bill at the time.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: She, is however, the most admired woman in America, very rare for a woman who is not the first lady. And Laura Bush is a very wonderful woman. But it's very rare that the first lady does not win that. And yet Hillary has won it something like nine out of the last 10 years.
But closer to home, she's been very successful in her new adopted state of New York. Many people thought she didn't have a chance to win. She not only won. She is downright beloved. A new poll out today from Quinnipiac College asked citizens in her state, is Hillary honest? Sixty-four percent, yes. Do you approve of the job she's doing? Sixty-five percent, yes. Is she a strong leader? Seventy- four percent, yes.
NOVAK: That was just New York women.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Just New York women being asked.
BEGALA: No, not women. New York -- those are people she works for.
Pretty high approval ratings, aren't they?
CASTELLANOS: Tremendous approval ratings.
And, look, I think Hillary is a serious contender in the Democratic primaries and in the general election. We have 29 women who have been governors in the U.S. We have 59 women who are serving now in the House of Representatives, 15 women in the U.S. Senate, nine of whom are Republicans, by the way. So the time that a woman can be president of the United States may not be far off. Now, whether it's Hillary or not, certainly, these numbers prove she is good at politics, like her husband. But they don't necessarily prove she's good at government and fits the philosophy of the country outside the state of New York.
BEGALA: That is what an election might find out, should she decide to run. But she is running for reelection to the Senate. The two most popular Republicans in New York, really two of the most popular Republicans in the country are Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York. Hillary beats him by nine points. And George Pataki, the long-serving and popular governor, she beats him in a poll by 26 points.
Now, that's pretty impressive, to be defeating giants like Giuliani in a reelection, wouldn't it?
CASTELLANOS: But then when you see numbers, national numbers, on general elections with Hillary Clinton and everyone against almost any other Republican, Hillary seems to cap out in the low 40s. She is a very polarizing figure.
We just saw an election where George Bush was a very polarizing figure. You either love him or hate him, but you knew where he stood. I think America has that same kind of fix on Hillary Clinton. It's going to be very difficult for her to transform herself. Bill was a much more flexible political animal.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Let me challenge how -- Alex, how good a politician she is and ask Steve that -- I was looking at a lot of quotes by Senator Clinton. I don't want to take the ones before the election. Everybody says odd things in a campaign.
But this is a quote on January 24, four days after the inauguration: "America's leaders don't have a vision. And the economy may be on the brink of collapse."
You know, nobody thinks this economy is on the brink of collapse. I could give you sodium pentathol and you would say it's not on the brink of collapse. Somebody who says something like that, where is this new moderation we hear about from Hillary?
MCMAHON: Well, let's just look at the facts.
When President Clinton left office, we had the biggest surplus in the history of the world. And we now have the largest deficit in the history of this country.
NOVAK: Do you think the economy is on the brink of collapse?
MCMAHON: I don't think it is on the brink of collapse, Bob.
NOVAK: Of course it isn't.
MCMAHON: But if we continue borrowing... NOVAK: That's what she says, though.
MCMAHON: If we borrow $2 trillion to privatize Social Security and plunge our nation even further into debt and we continue to run a war in Iraq and perhaps a war in Afghanistan or Iran that's off budget and we just move these things off budget, it's possible for this country, if its spending habits continue the way they have been going, to become Argentina.
CASTELLANOS: Excuse me. This is Democrats talking about spending habits?
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: No, talking about deficits, Alex. Is this a Republican, my old friend Alex, defending these deficits?
CASTELLANOS: Deficits -- well, listen, we have had a rough economy, inherited. The economy is coming back. We have had a lot of months of growth now. And we do happen to be at war. So there are some things that are taxing the economy right now.
BEGALA: Let's move it back off the economy, back on to polling numbers, because you are...
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BEGALA: I told you this backstage. I will just tell you in public, you are one of the most brilliant people in the Republican Party, a really great strategist.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: I'm curious -- it's not even a setup. I'm curious as to your take on the CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll among Republicans of who they prefer for the post-Bush era. Vice President Cheney has taken himself out of the race. And usually vice presidents try to succeed the president.
Here is who your party likes best. Rudy Giuliani leads the pack, John McCain a relatively close second at 29 percent. Jeb Bush, who I'm told does not want to run for president -- at least his brother says that -- at 12, and Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader of Tennessee...
CASTELLANOS: He says it.
BEGALA: A very weak fourth place at 6 percent.
What does that tell you about your party?
CASTELLANOS: Well, I think one of the things it tells us that we're not really looking at is that it's a very different Republican Party and a new Republican Party that George Bush has built.
There's a new world order out there. Republicans are now talking about issues like Social Security. Republicans are touching the third rail. Education reform, Republicans are leading on. Republicans have become the party of new ideas and the party that is expanding. Democrats is -- seems to be the party that doesn't really have anything new to put on the table and is contracting. As the Republican Party grows, yes, it has become a little bit more diverse. But we call that freedom.
NOVAK: We are going to have to take break, Alex.
When we come back with CROSSFIRE, we'll ask whether Dr. Dean -- you remember Howard -- still has his eye on the White House in '08.
And, after the break, a warning to Iran for the U.S.: The diplomatic clock is ticking. Wolf Blitzer reports on what may be next if Iran doesn't halt its nuclear program.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting from Washington.
Coming up at the top of the hour, President Bush issues another stern warning to Iran: Don't develop a nuclear weapon. But can diplomacy alone make the Iranians back down? Are members of the U.S. Army Reserves, National Guard being treated like second-class citizens? We will talk with Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Lindsey Graham. They say the answer is yes.
And he's being dubbed a mystery man in the White House press corps. Was he really a reporter or did he have another agenda?
All those stories, much more, only minutes way on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS."
Now back to CROSSFIRE.
NOVAK: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE; 2008 could be a Republican dream, with the Democrats picking Howard Dean to run the party and Hillary Clinton as a candidate for president. Is it too soon to celebrate?
Joining us, Steve McMahon, Democratic strategist, and Republican strategist Alex Castellanos.
BEGALA: Alex, let me read you a statement. This is a game I learned from Mr. Novak. And you try to guess who said it.
"I'm pro-choice. I'm pro-gay rights. There are people in the Republican Party who don't agree with that. There are people who disagree with it." Who do you suppose said that?
CASTELLANOS: Well, the last guy to say it was Paul Begala. But beyond that...
(LAUGHTER)
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BEGALA: I'm quoting Rudy Giuliani. The front-runner in your party...
CASTELLANOS: Yes.
BEGALA: ... has the most liberal position you can have on gay rights and on abortion. Can he win?
CASTELLANOS: The party of diversity, that's us. You always know it.
But Rudy -- if you take another national survey -- I saw actually a Princeton survey. If you ask Republicans if Rudy Giuliani should run for president or not, 69 percent said yes.
BEGALA: But with the same positions as Hillary or Howard Dean...
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: They won't vote for him, but they think he should run.
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: I'm curious. If Howard Dean and Hillary are big liberals because they're for abortion rights and...
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: For Giuliani, it depends a great deal what the agenda is next election.
If we're still talking about security, here's a guy who stood on the rubble at 9/11 with George Bush and I think has run a government bigger than France. So he may be a very strong...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Steve...
MCMAHON: If he's the nominee, though, do you think they would put all those anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot?
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: You know, there's something else...
BEGALA: That's a good question.
CASTELLANOS: There's something else about the Republican Party, though. There's a libertarian streak on the right. They say, leave me alone. Don't let the government run my life.
And Giuliani I think would have strong appeal there.
BEGALA: Interesting. NOVAK: Steve McMahon, you were a prime factor in the Dean campaign. And one of your colleagues, the campaign manager, Joe Trippi, as I mentioned when we started this program, says don't pay any attention to Howard saying he's not going to run in '08 if he's elected national chairman, which he will be. Joe says he's going to run.
What do you think of that?
MCMAHON: I don't know when the last time Joe talked to Howard is. But if he had spoken to him recently, he would have told him pretty clearly that he's not running.
He has said that from the beginning. He says that today. He'll say that in 2008. The fact is, we're going to have strong candidates. I think, by that time, the nation is going to have figured out that these Republican policies have not made us stronger. They've made us weaker. And our economy I think could at that point...
NOVAK: Let me ask you about John Edwards. He is a guy who is campaigning hard, because he has been up in New Hampshire. He couldn't even carry his own state of North Carolina for the ticket. I think he would have been beaten for reelection.
Tell me, what is the appeal of this guy? What does he bring to the table?
MCMAHON: Well, I think the first thing he brings is, he's comfortable in his skin and he understands the South. And that's a very attractive thing for Democrats...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: He lost the South. They got clobbered.
MCMAHON: My memory, Bob, is that John Kerry's name was on the top of the ticket, not John Edwards. And it might have been a different situation. We don't know. We don't know for sure.
NOVAK: You remember Lyndon Johnson? He carried the South...
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: We don't know for sure, but John Edwards would be a strong candidate. Hillary Clinton is going to be tough to get past. And if John Kerry decides to run again, he'll be a strong candidate. And there are others, Mark Warner.
NOVAK: How about Al Gore?
(CROSSTALK)
MCMAHON: Al Gore would be a strong candidate. Frankly, Howard Dean would be a strong candidate. All these people...
(CROSSTALK) CASTELLANOS: We can only dream.
BEGALA: Well, we can all also dream about John McCain, because I would love to see a Republican who repudiates Bush's tax cuts run in the primaries. How would he do, an anti-tax cut Republican?
CASTELLANOS: Well, I think John McCain would do very well with that platform, especially if he ran in the Democratic primaries.
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: But I think he has got to decide which party he wants to run in.
BEGALA: That will have to be the last word. Alex Castellanos, thank you very much. Steve McMahon, thank you both for a fun discussion of something that's not going to happen for four more years. But we'll have you back in four years to see if you were right.
Next on CROSSFIRE, plumbers and hipsters better look out. Politicians in Virginia are about to hit you below the belt.
Stay with us and we'll translate.
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NOVAK: Virginia lawmakers are trying to deal with people who end up sharing a bit too much of their fashion choices.
Members of the House of Delegates in Virginia have OKed a bill that would fine people who wear their pants so low that their underwear shows. A lot of kids wear low-rise jeans and baggy pants that often don't leave very much to the imagination. If the bill becomes law, anyone displaying his or her underpants in a lewd or indecent manner would face -- get this -- a $50 fine.
I guess, since Virginia just passed a big tax increase, the state's lawmakers need more money and now are ready to start to institute dress codes.
BEGALA: It is ridiculous.
And here's a hint for the kids. If the law says you can't show your underpants, don't wear underpants. Go commando.
(LAUGHTER)
BEGALA: And wear your pants how you like it. Don't let these Republicans run your life.
(APPLAUSE)
From the left, I am Paul Begala. That's it for CROSSFIRE. NOVAK: From the right, I'm Robert Novak. Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE.
"WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
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