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CNN Crossfire
President Bush Takes Stock of Trip Abroad
Aired February 25, 2005 - 16:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE. On the left, James Carville; on the right, Robert Novak.
In the CROSSFIRE, President Bush back home and taking stock of his journey abroad, mending fences.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Every time I meet with Jacques, he's -- he's got good advice.
ANNOUNCER: Easing Europe's fears about Iran.
BUSH: Iran is not Iraq. We just started the diplomatic efforts and I want to thank our friends for taking the lead.
ANNOUNCER: And pressing for democratic reform in Russia.
BUSH: I think Vladimir heard me loud and clear and he explained why he made the decisions he made.
An ambitious agenda for Mr. Bush. How did he do?
Today on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, James Carville and Robert Novak.
(APPLAUSE)
JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST: Welcome to CROSSFIRE.
President Bush is no doubt fighting off jet lag returning last night from his five-day tour of Europe. His mission was to get out there and charm the socks off of the U.S. allies. He doesn't have much to show for it, only thin commitments to Iraqi training programs by France, Germany and other countries.
ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: If you think President Bush didn't score on this trip, you don't understand politics. Allies are now pitching in to get Iraq's security forces up to speed. Mr. Bush also brokered agreements with European and Russian counterparts to curtail global nuclear dangers.
We'll talk more about the president's trip, but, first, the best little political briefing in television, our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
Howard Dean, the new Democratic national chairman, has kept his first promise. He's off on a tour of the so-called red states. He's currently in Kansas, one of the reddest states, where George W. Bush got 62 percent of the vote and a state which no Democrat has carried for president since 1964.
Now, Kansas actually has a Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius. Tonight, Dr. Dean addresses a $5 -- I said $5 -- a-ticket rally in a movie theater in Lawrence. Will Governor Sebelius be there? No siree. She's in the same town, Lawrence, marking the anniversary of a college fieldhouse. She won't come close to her party chairman during his two days in the state. Kathleen Sebelius is no dummy.
CARVILLE: Is that the Phog Allen Fieldhouse on the campus of the University of Kansas?
NOVAK: That's right.
CARVILLE: Great tradition.
NOVAK: Fiftieth anniversary, yes.
CARVILLE: They play -- they play Oklahoma State...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Do you think she's smart keeping away from Howard?
CARVILLE: Probably. He got 62 percent.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: You know, I mean, I'm just reading this book. What's the matter with -- Kansas is a great state. By the way, Lawrence, Kansas, one of the nicest towns I've been in. And a lot of Democrats are there, too. I will guarantee...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: That's why they get so many votes.
CARVILLE: Good program there. Democrats do well in Lawrence. That's about it, but we do well in Lawrence.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: In May of 2004, as I pointed out on this show, the Saudis said they would pump up oil production to keep prices low to help President Bush's reelection campaign. Bob Woodward in his book "Plan of Attack" on page 234 said the Saudi ambassador also said the Saudis would do what they could to keep prices low to help with Bush's reelection.
Of course, all the goofy right-wingers had a conniption fit, saying this was some liberal plot. Well, the election is over and the president's Saudi friends are doing what? In today's "Financial Times" the Saudi oil minister said -- and I quote -- that "we'll be seeing oil prices between $40 and $50 a barrel for the foreseeable future."
The problem with right-wingers is, they don't understand that, once you dance with the devil, you get your toes stepped on.
NOVAK: Let me try to explain a couple things to you.
CARVILLE: Yes, explain it to me. Explain it to me.
NOVAK: In 1980, President Clinton asked the Saudis to keep...
CARVILLE: In 1980, Jimmy Carter was president.
NOVAK: I'm sorry. In 1980, Jimmy Carter asked the Saudis to keep oil prices down. They did, but it didn't elect Jimmy. In 2000, President Clinton asked them to keep oil prices down to help Al Gore. They did, but it didn't help him.
CARVILLE: Right.
NOVAK: After the election, they raised the prices. They do it all the time.
The only way to solve this problem, James, is either to stop using oil or forget about the fuzzy little animals and drill in Alaska.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: In the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve.
(BELL RINGING)
CARVILLE: You don't think, if you drill in Alaska, you can put a dent in that oil supply. The problem is, is that they say they're going to do that and then what happens is, on February -- you know, February the next year, they raise them back up.
NOVAK: That's life.
CARVILLE: And under Bill Clinton, it was $21 a barrel. Now it's $51 a barrel.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: That's inflation.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: The constitutional amendment to permit Arnold Schwarzenegger to run for president of the United States just got a little boost. Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Republican Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, announced he supports ending the constitutional prohibition against electing a foreign-born president.
Governor Schwarzenegger can't run now because he was born in Austria. The Terminator is probably the most popular Republican in America. But don't hold your breath about the constitutional amendment. Arnold is at odds with party doctrine on guns, gays, abortion and stem cell research, on most everything except tax cuts. Senator Specter, aside, the last thing Republican leaders want is Arnold Schwarzenegger getting in the presidential primaries in 2008.
CARVILLE: Yes, his new poll number is like at 55 percent. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is at 70 percent in New York. There's somebody we need to run for president.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: We don't even need a constitutional amendment to have Senator Clinton run.
NOVAK: I'll tell you what. I would like to see Senator Clinton, Hillary Clinton, run. If you can guarantee that, you'll make me, an old man, happy.
CARVILLE: I'll be a happy person if she does, because America needs Hillary Clinton as president.
NOVAK: I just can't wait. I just can't wait for that campaign.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: That's all right.
If you want to stay up and watch who wins the Oscar for best picture Sunday night, go ahead. But I can tell you what movie ought to win and I predict probably will, at least I hope so, and that's none other than Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby."
It should win because it's not only the best movie of the year, but the best movie made in a long time. Of course, all those same right-wingers that were clamoring about the Saudis would never try to manipulate an election day now have "Million Dollar Baby" in their sights and trying to defeat it. I think the academy will reject these attacks and give this superb film the recognition that it so richly deserves.
Watch the Academy Awards if you want to, but if you haven't seen "Million Dollar Baby," please go. It's a hell of a movie.
NOVAK: Well, you know, I haven't seen it. I don't go to movies. I live in a cave, so it's very difficult for me to do it.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: But when you started pumping up "Million Dollar Baby," I did some checking. The Catholic News Service classifies the film as morally offensive. So, that's double reason not to go.
CARVILLE: Why?
NOVAK: The outrage...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: You let the Catholic News Service -- they used to tell us when I was in high school -- the monsignors to come on the phone and say, whatever you do, don't go see this movie. And there was a riot of all the kids going to see the movie.
NOVAK: Yes, well, that's the kind of person you are.
CARVILLE: Yes. Well...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: ... Catholic News Service said the Earth was flat.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: I follow the rules. And I think the outrage is that "The Passion of the Christ" was not nominated for an award. It's one of the great movies of all time.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: Again, I didn't see -- I saw this movie. It's a hell of a movie.
(BELL RINGING)
CARVILLE: And I can tell you what. You can go see it. As Clint Eastwood said, incest is in "Hamlet." The Catholic News Service would bar having "Hamlet" being portrayed on college campuses.
NOVAK: President -- probably should.
CARVILLE: All right.
NOVAK: President Bush is back from his swing through Europe. Just ahead, we'll talk about his diplomatic and political gains.
` And, later, the movie "Sideways" -- this is move night -- is nominated for an Oscar. We'll tell you why former Attorney General John Ashcroft might not be much of a fan.
(APPLAUSE)
ANNOUNCER: Join Carville, Begala and Novak in the CROSSFIRE. For free tickets to CROSSFIRE at the George Washington University, call 202-994-8CNN or visit our Web site. Now you can step into the CROSSFIRE.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: President Bush went abroad this week and went on a charm offensive. He tried to win back the hearts and minds of Europeans to sweet-talk their leaders back into his corner. Did he pull if off?
Joining us today in the CROSSFIRE are Peter Brookes, senior fellow with the Heritage Foundation and former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and former National Security Council spokesman and Center For American Progress senior fellow P.J. Crowley.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: P.J. Crowley, I thought the president was very impressive on this trip in what he was saying. Let's -- I'm going to give you a little sample of it, if you don't mind watching it.
P.J. CROWLEY, SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: OK.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: One of the things I wanted to make sure I heard clearly from our friends in Europe was whether or not they viewed the Iran problem the same way I did. And they do. Chancellor Schroeder and Prime Minister Blair and President Chirac all said loud and clear that the Iranians should not have a nuclear weapon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NOVAK: Now, that kind of goes against the Democratic line you've been spouting for lo these many weeks that he's out of sync -- out of sync with the Europeans.
CROWLEY: I think we're against Iran having weapons of mass destruction.
No, first of all, I think the president was very effective in terms of trying to reestablish a sustainable relationship with the old Europe. And we now -- french fries have come in from the cold.
(LAUGHTER)
CROWLEY: So, this is definitely progress.
Now, we have to just understand that he was largely in a hole that the administration dug, but I think he did what he had to do to reestablish a workable relationship with our key allies.
NOVAK: And he also make clear, did he not, that there's no intent of this country to invade Iran and to start another war. Isn't -- didn't he make that clear?
CROWLEY: He called military force ridiculous. It's the right answer. Iran is far more complex than Iraq was.
My question is, you know, why can't Iran be like North Korea? We're willing to have a six-party talk with North Korea, but somehow not willing to have a four-party talk with Iran. I don't think we get anywhere towards our stated position of no nuclear weapons for Iran unless we're in this game, rather than cheering from the sidelines.
CARVILLE: A lot has been made, this tremendous diplomatic triumph. We've got one French soldier that is going to Brussels.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: Do we know anything about -- is it a man or a woman? Could this soldier be gay or straight or whatever? This is like the greatest foreign policy achievement of this administration. Do you know the soldier's name?
PETER BROOKES, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: No, I don't.
CARVILLE: Do you know its gender?
(LAUGHTER)
BROOKES: No.
CARVILLE: Do you know its sexual orientation?
BROOKES: But they're giving money. They're giving money.
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: And all 26 nations of NATO are going to participate, James. That's really important. It's symbolic.
CARVILLE: But why couldn't they at least, if they are going to send one, why couldn't they send it to Baghdad instead of Brussels?
BROOKES: Do we really want a French soldier? We want some real soldiers who can fight.
CARVILLE: We don't want -- so we don't even want the French there?
BROOKES: Well, I mean, it's important...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: But we don't know anything...
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: They're not part of the military of NATO. They're not part of the military of NATO.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: ... build a monument to this soldier or something?
BROOKES: It's very symbolic that the French are in on it at all. But we're getting all 26 members of NATO are participating.
CARVILLE: Let me...
NOVAK: You know, P.J., the...
CARVILLE: I'm sorry, I thought I got two questions, but...
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Well, you had six questions, what I counted.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: The chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroeder, was very unpleasant to the president, I thought, a couple years ago Did you not think he was? I thought he was. Maybe...
CROWLEY: Well, I thought the president was pretty unpleasant to Gerhard Schroeder by scrubbing the Kyoto treaty on the very eve of Schroeder's first visit to...
NOVAK: Well, they were unpleasant to each other.
CROWLEY: To Washington in 2001.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: Let me -- let me quote -- let me quote what the chancellor of Germany said Thursday, yesterday.
He said -- quote -- "Nobody wants to conceal that we had different opinions about these things in the past, but that is the past. We have agreed that we are not going to constantly emphasize where we're not agreeing, but we want to focus on where we do agree."
Now, I read that as saying he was saying that, if there was a difficulty between the United States and Germany, there was trouble, there was cause for it on both sides.
CROWLEY: Well, look, Schroeder ran against the president for reelection himself. And now they've both turned a corner. I think this is positive.
I -- you know, the president was very constructive when it comes to our European allies. And, look, we got a little something, one French soldier and some more -- additional cooperation from NATO.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: ... this French soldier.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: But it shows you, when you treat your key allies as partners and not pawns or pariahs, you actually get results.
CARVILLE: Mr. Brookes, Germany, I mean, we have good relations. We rebuilt them. We buy their BMWs and Mercedes and Porches and Volkswagens and cameras and dental equipment and God knows whatnot.
And there was a poll in Germany. And more Germans respect Vladimir Putin, an autocrat, than our own president. What did -- and yet we're trumpeting this trip as some kind of a breathtaking, one French soldier, democratic -- democratic triumph. I mean, what is the matter with these Germans? What is there to like about Putin?
BROOKES: Well, obviously, there are problems with Putin, especially the retrenchment of democracy there.
I don't understand -- I don't understand the German polls. The president has made -- has been successful on a number of points. I think he gets points just for showing up in Europe. And you can't run -- foreign policy is not a popularity poll.
You can't run your foreign policy based on what the French or the Germans think.
(APPLAUSE)
BROOKES: If that is what you think is important, I think you're out of step with reality, James.
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: You're going to let the French or the Germans dictate our foreign policy?
CARVILLE: So, let me say this. The success of this trip, we're telling these fourth graders that we're not giving you -- you have got to take these tests. And let's see. Bush gets credit for showing up. I wish I had -- I showed up. What the hell you want me to do?
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: I thought that was the way you got through college, for showing up.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: That was my understanding.
CARVILLE: That's Woody Allen; 85 percent of life is showing up.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: P.J. Crowley, a lot of speculation about this trip was what the president was going to do with Russia, with President Putin.
Well, it turns out, we don't -- they were together alone a long time. I don't know what they talked about, whether they're talked basketball or just what it was.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: But the thing is, there are -- do you criticize -- I don't think he came over and grabbed him by the throat and said, get democratic. Don't you think there is a limit to what the United States can do in micromanaging the internal affairs of Russia?
CROWLEY: Well, no, actually, I believe in the vision that the president put out at his inauguration. Democracy and liberty is the answer in terms of ultimately combating terrorism.
Yesterday was the first test. And I think he kind of had an uneven result. You know, and I part of it is, he put the bar awfully low. What he basically said, as long as you're better than Brezhnev, you're OK.
NOVAK: What do you expect? Do you expect Russia to be like Iowa or something like that?
CROWLEY: No, but I wanted to see something more like Clinton did to...
CARVILLE: Like France, maybe.
CROWLEY: ... Jiang Zemin in 1998, in Beijing. Standing right there in front of a national television audience, he said you're on the wrong side of history.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: But I think, had -- had the president done that yesterday and said, look, right now, Russia needs Mikhail Gorbachev and you're acting like Yuri Andropov, I think he just needed to kind of put Putin back on his heels.
CARVILLE: Let me go through some European countries here and their support for the war in Iraq.
Poland is pulling out 1,700 troops this year. Portugal has pulled out 150 this month. The Netherlands are pulling out 1,700, beginning withdrawals next month. And the Ukraine has a 1,600-troop pullout. Was he successful in getting one more troop in Iraq to help our -- our men and women there from Europe, as we have these massive troop pullouts?
BROOKES: Well, you heard about -- you heard about the NATO proposal.
CARVILLE: We got that one. We got that...
(CROSSTALK) CARVILLE: ... Brussels.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Let him answer.
BROOKES: On the other side, Saddam Hussein is gone.
CARVILLE: He's gone?
BROOKES: We have had a set of elections. They're putting together a national assembly. They're drafting a constitution. What's wrong with that? Are you against that?
(CROSSTALK)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: All right. All right. All right. That's all.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: Two hundred billion dollars is what's wrong with that.
CARVILLE: The one Frenchman in Brussels.
NOVAK: Time for a break, James. Time for a break.
CARVILLE: Merci. Merci.
NOVAK: When we come back -- when we come back, I'll tell you why President Bush's trip to Europe was a disaster for Democrats.
Plus, breaking news this hour. There's news of a massive explosion in Israel. We'll bring you the latest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Miles O'Brien, reporting from Washington.
Coming up at the top of the hour, details on an explosion, an apparent suicide bombing on the beachfront in Tel Aviv, happened at a nightclub in downtown Tel Aviv, dozens of casualties reported, specifically, 30 casualties. More details ahead on this and what appears to be yet another suicide bombing in the Middle East.
Also, a possible break in a decades-old case. Police question a person of interest in their search for the BTK serial killer in Wichita.
A frantic search for a missing Florida girl, meanwhile. We'll show you an emotional plea from her family.
Plus, an update on the pope's condition one day after that surgery. All those stories and much more are moments away on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS."
Now back to CROSSFIRE.
Shaking hands with France's Jacques Chirac, smoothing Germany's Gerhard Schroeder and Russia's Vladimir Putin, wooing Slovakia's citizens. Did five days of overseas P.R. pay off for President Bush? Our guests today are Heritage Foundation senior fellow Peter Brookes and P.J. Crowley, senior fellow with the Center For the American Progress.
NOVAK: P.J., you're a -- you're a double threat. You know national security questions and you also know politics.
Now, Scott Rasmussen, who is an independent pollster, says of this trip, "If you were a Democrat -- if you were the Democrats, you couldn't write a worse script from a political point of view than this trip by the president."
Do you agree with that?
CROWLEY: No, quite the opposite. I think that President Bush on this trip was doing exactly what someone like John Kerry was saying, that you have got to engage your allies. You've got to convince them to go the way that you want to.
The president, had he done this two years ago, we would have more help in Iraq today. We wouldn't have a $2,000 -- $200 billion bill burning our way through our budget.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: Mr. Brookes, do you think that there'll be a lasting benefit of this trip? What do you think will be the sort of lasting benefit here?
BROOKES: I think there has been many opportunities for coordination and consultation.
I'm sure, before Vladimir Putin, that they talked on Russia. Remember, Ukraine is a big success for Europe and the United States. We were able to get those elections back on track. We talked about Iran. We don't have the same methods for dealing with it, necessarily. The E.U. arms embargo to China, big issue. The president had a lot of time to speak to key leaders, the French and the Germans, on this issue.
So, I think this is a major first step, an opportunity for cooperation in the future and we're just going to have to see.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: Let me go back to my question, P.J., because I'm talking politics. I know...
CROWLEY: Absolutely.
NOVAK: I know that what President Bush is doing are some of the things the Democrats suggested he do. But life is unfair. Isn't it, he is looking good and that's bad for the Democrats?
CROWLEY: No. I mean, let's talk as Americans for a second.
This was a good trip for the United States overall, although, on Iran, for example, while the president did nudge the ball forward and say he is going to be more supportive of the Europeans, we're going to realign our carrots and sticks, still, the issue here is, because of the hard-liners within the administration, we have a stated position, no nukes, but we're no closer to getting...
NOVAK: Who are the hard-liners left?
CROWLEY: What?
NOVAK: Who are the...
CROWLEY: Remember Cheney, Rumsfeld, those two guys? I think they're still hanging around.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: Let me try to go through something here, Mr. Brookes. Mr. Novak keeps saying this. The president won the election, gave the State of the Union, the inaugural address. They had the elections in Iraq. His approval didn't go up 1 percentage point.
NOVAK: Yes, it did. It's gone up. Yes, it did.
CARVILLE: No. It's at 50 percent now.
NOVAK: No, that's not true.
CARVILLE: And Mr. Novak is a great political scientist, saying that he goes, he gets a French troop to go to Brussels and eat chocolate that his approval rating is going to go up?
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: I mean, it may, but, if it does, it ain't going to last very long.
BROOKES: No, I mean, just look at the Russian part of the visit. He met with Putin I think behind closed doors. He made a very important case about the retrenchment of democracy. He got him to do something on loose nukes, very important, got him to destroy surface- to-air missiles that could be used against our civilian airliners.
I think this is very important. And I think down the road, we're going to see benefits. And, look, the president is not -- has to do what's right and not what's popular, OK? That's very important for him to...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: Thank you.
NOVAK: Peter Brookes, thank you very much.
CARVILLE: Thank you. Thank you very much.
P.J. Crowley, thank you very much.
(CROSSTALK)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: When the Oscars are handed out Sunday night, there is one film nominated that the former Attorney General John Ashcroft probably won't be pulling for. And we'll tell you why next.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: If you've ever been on a commercial flight that offers a movie, you know that the dialogue is far less salty than it is on the theater version.
Take "Sideways," for instance. The Oscar-nominated film is peppered with the A-word. So, according to "The Washington Post," its creators got, well, creative and dubbed over with another A-word that plays a dubious homage to a former United States attorney general. So, instead of, "You blankety-blank,"you will hear the characters calling each other, "You Ashcroft."
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: You know what they say, an Ashcroft by any other name.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: James, how would you like it, when we get a little heated, I said, you know, Carville, you are just an Ashcroft?
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: I would say, that wouldn't be what you were thinking. And you were thinking about using another word. You know, my problem with these things is, I can't watch them on that little-bitty screen anyway, Bob.
From the left, I'm James Carville. That's it for CROSSFIRE, you Ashcroft.
(LAUGHTER) NOVAK: From -- from the right, I'm Robert Novak.
Join me again tomorrow at 10:30 p.m. Eastern for "THE NOVAK ZONE." My topic will be the price of freedom, Americans at war.
"WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
(APPLAUSE)
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Aired February 25, 2005 - 16:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE. On the left, James Carville; on the right, Robert Novak.
In the CROSSFIRE, President Bush back home and taking stock of his journey abroad, mending fences.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Every time I meet with Jacques, he's -- he's got good advice.
ANNOUNCER: Easing Europe's fears about Iran.
BUSH: Iran is not Iraq. We just started the diplomatic efforts and I want to thank our friends for taking the lead.
ANNOUNCER: And pressing for democratic reform in Russia.
BUSH: I think Vladimir heard me loud and clear and he explained why he made the decisions he made.
An ambitious agenda for Mr. Bush. How did he do?
Today on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, James Carville and Robert Novak.
(APPLAUSE)
JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST: Welcome to CROSSFIRE.
President Bush is no doubt fighting off jet lag returning last night from his five-day tour of Europe. His mission was to get out there and charm the socks off of the U.S. allies. He doesn't have much to show for it, only thin commitments to Iraqi training programs by France, Germany and other countries.
ROBERT NOVAK, CO-HOST: If you think President Bush didn't score on this trip, you don't understand politics. Allies are now pitching in to get Iraq's security forces up to speed. Mr. Bush also brokered agreements with European and Russian counterparts to curtail global nuclear dangers.
We'll talk more about the president's trip, but, first, the best little political briefing in television, our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
Howard Dean, the new Democratic national chairman, has kept his first promise. He's off on a tour of the so-called red states. He's currently in Kansas, one of the reddest states, where George W. Bush got 62 percent of the vote and a state which no Democrat has carried for president since 1964.
Now, Kansas actually has a Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius. Tonight, Dr. Dean addresses a $5 -- I said $5 -- a-ticket rally in a movie theater in Lawrence. Will Governor Sebelius be there? No siree. She's in the same town, Lawrence, marking the anniversary of a college fieldhouse. She won't come close to her party chairman during his two days in the state. Kathleen Sebelius is no dummy.
CARVILLE: Is that the Phog Allen Fieldhouse on the campus of the University of Kansas?
NOVAK: That's right.
CARVILLE: Great tradition.
NOVAK: Fiftieth anniversary, yes.
CARVILLE: They play -- they play Oklahoma State...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Do you think she's smart keeping away from Howard?
CARVILLE: Probably. He got 62 percent.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: You know, I mean, I'm just reading this book. What's the matter with -- Kansas is a great state. By the way, Lawrence, Kansas, one of the nicest towns I've been in. And a lot of Democrats are there, too. I will guarantee...
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: That's why they get so many votes.
CARVILLE: Good program there. Democrats do well in Lawrence. That's about it, but we do well in Lawrence.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: In May of 2004, as I pointed out on this show, the Saudis said they would pump up oil production to keep prices low to help President Bush's reelection campaign. Bob Woodward in his book "Plan of Attack" on page 234 said the Saudi ambassador also said the Saudis would do what they could to keep prices low to help with Bush's reelection.
Of course, all the goofy right-wingers had a conniption fit, saying this was some liberal plot. Well, the election is over and the president's Saudi friends are doing what? In today's "Financial Times" the Saudi oil minister said -- and I quote -- that "we'll be seeing oil prices between $40 and $50 a barrel for the foreseeable future."
The problem with right-wingers is, they don't understand that, once you dance with the devil, you get your toes stepped on.
NOVAK: Let me try to explain a couple things to you.
CARVILLE: Yes, explain it to me. Explain it to me.
NOVAK: In 1980, President Clinton asked the Saudis to keep...
CARVILLE: In 1980, Jimmy Carter was president.
NOVAK: I'm sorry. In 1980, Jimmy Carter asked the Saudis to keep oil prices down. They did, but it didn't elect Jimmy. In 2000, President Clinton asked them to keep oil prices down to help Al Gore. They did, but it didn't help him.
CARVILLE: Right.
NOVAK: After the election, they raised the prices. They do it all the time.
The only way to solve this problem, James, is either to stop using oil or forget about the fuzzy little animals and drill in Alaska.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: In the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve.
(BELL RINGING)
CARVILLE: You don't think, if you drill in Alaska, you can put a dent in that oil supply. The problem is, is that they say they're going to do that and then what happens is, on February -- you know, February the next year, they raise them back up.
NOVAK: That's life.
CARVILLE: And under Bill Clinton, it was $21 a barrel. Now it's $51 a barrel.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: That's inflation.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: The constitutional amendment to permit Arnold Schwarzenegger to run for president of the United States just got a little boost. Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Republican Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, announced he supports ending the constitutional prohibition against electing a foreign-born president.
Governor Schwarzenegger can't run now because he was born in Austria. The Terminator is probably the most popular Republican in America. But don't hold your breath about the constitutional amendment. Arnold is at odds with party doctrine on guns, gays, abortion and stem cell research, on most everything except tax cuts. Senator Specter, aside, the last thing Republican leaders want is Arnold Schwarzenegger getting in the presidential primaries in 2008.
CARVILLE: Yes, his new poll number is like at 55 percent. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is at 70 percent in New York. There's somebody we need to run for president.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: We don't even need a constitutional amendment to have Senator Clinton run.
NOVAK: I'll tell you what. I would like to see Senator Clinton, Hillary Clinton, run. If you can guarantee that, you'll make me, an old man, happy.
CARVILLE: I'll be a happy person if she does, because America needs Hillary Clinton as president.
NOVAK: I just can't wait. I just can't wait for that campaign.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: That's all right.
If you want to stay up and watch who wins the Oscar for best picture Sunday night, go ahead. But I can tell you what movie ought to win and I predict probably will, at least I hope so, and that's none other than Clint Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby."
It should win because it's not only the best movie of the year, but the best movie made in a long time. Of course, all those same right-wingers that were clamoring about the Saudis would never try to manipulate an election day now have "Million Dollar Baby" in their sights and trying to defeat it. I think the academy will reject these attacks and give this superb film the recognition that it so richly deserves.
Watch the Academy Awards if you want to, but if you haven't seen "Million Dollar Baby," please go. It's a hell of a movie.
NOVAK: Well, you know, I haven't seen it. I don't go to movies. I live in a cave, so it's very difficult for me to do it.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: But when you started pumping up "Million Dollar Baby," I did some checking. The Catholic News Service classifies the film as morally offensive. So, that's double reason not to go.
CARVILLE: Why?
NOVAK: The outrage...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: You let the Catholic News Service -- they used to tell us when I was in high school -- the monsignors to come on the phone and say, whatever you do, don't go see this movie. And there was a riot of all the kids going to see the movie.
NOVAK: Yes, well, that's the kind of person you are.
CARVILLE: Yes. Well...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: ... Catholic News Service said the Earth was flat.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: I follow the rules. And I think the outrage is that "The Passion of the Christ" was not nominated for an award. It's one of the great movies of all time.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: Again, I didn't see -- I saw this movie. It's a hell of a movie.
(BELL RINGING)
CARVILLE: And I can tell you what. You can go see it. As Clint Eastwood said, incest is in "Hamlet." The Catholic News Service would bar having "Hamlet" being portrayed on college campuses.
NOVAK: President -- probably should.
CARVILLE: All right.
NOVAK: President Bush is back from his swing through Europe. Just ahead, we'll talk about his diplomatic and political gains.
` And, later, the movie "Sideways" -- this is move night -- is nominated for an Oscar. We'll tell you why former Attorney General John Ashcroft might not be much of a fan.
(APPLAUSE)
ANNOUNCER: Join Carville, Begala and Novak in the CROSSFIRE. For free tickets to CROSSFIRE at the George Washington University, call 202-994-8CNN or visit our Web site. Now you can step into the CROSSFIRE.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: President Bush went abroad this week and went on a charm offensive. He tried to win back the hearts and minds of Europeans to sweet-talk their leaders back into his corner. Did he pull if off?
Joining us today in the CROSSFIRE are Peter Brookes, senior fellow with the Heritage Foundation and former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and former National Security Council spokesman and Center For American Progress senior fellow P.J. Crowley.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: P.J. Crowley, I thought the president was very impressive on this trip in what he was saying. Let's -- I'm going to give you a little sample of it, if you don't mind watching it.
P.J. CROWLEY, SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS: OK.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: One of the things I wanted to make sure I heard clearly from our friends in Europe was whether or not they viewed the Iran problem the same way I did. And they do. Chancellor Schroeder and Prime Minister Blair and President Chirac all said loud and clear that the Iranians should not have a nuclear weapon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
NOVAK: Now, that kind of goes against the Democratic line you've been spouting for lo these many weeks that he's out of sync -- out of sync with the Europeans.
CROWLEY: I think we're against Iran having weapons of mass destruction.
No, first of all, I think the president was very effective in terms of trying to reestablish a sustainable relationship with the old Europe. And we now -- french fries have come in from the cold.
(LAUGHTER)
CROWLEY: So, this is definitely progress.
Now, we have to just understand that he was largely in a hole that the administration dug, but I think he did what he had to do to reestablish a workable relationship with our key allies.
NOVAK: And he also make clear, did he not, that there's no intent of this country to invade Iran and to start another war. Isn't -- didn't he make that clear?
CROWLEY: He called military force ridiculous. It's the right answer. Iran is far more complex than Iraq was.
My question is, you know, why can't Iran be like North Korea? We're willing to have a six-party talk with North Korea, but somehow not willing to have a four-party talk with Iran. I don't think we get anywhere towards our stated position of no nuclear weapons for Iran unless we're in this game, rather than cheering from the sidelines.
CARVILLE: A lot has been made, this tremendous diplomatic triumph. We've got one French soldier that is going to Brussels.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: Do we know anything about -- is it a man or a woman? Could this soldier be gay or straight or whatever? This is like the greatest foreign policy achievement of this administration. Do you know the soldier's name?
PETER BROOKES, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: No, I don't.
CARVILLE: Do you know its gender?
(LAUGHTER)
BROOKES: No.
CARVILLE: Do you know its sexual orientation?
BROOKES: But they're giving money. They're giving money.
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: And all 26 nations of NATO are going to participate, James. That's really important. It's symbolic.
CARVILLE: But why couldn't they at least, if they are going to send one, why couldn't they send it to Baghdad instead of Brussels?
BROOKES: Do we really want a French soldier? We want some real soldiers who can fight.
CARVILLE: We don't want -- so we don't even want the French there?
BROOKES: Well, I mean, it's important...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: But we don't know anything...
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: They're not part of the military of NATO. They're not part of the military of NATO.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: ... build a monument to this soldier or something?
BROOKES: It's very symbolic that the French are in on it at all. But we're getting all 26 members of NATO are participating.
CARVILLE: Let me...
NOVAK: You know, P.J., the...
CARVILLE: I'm sorry, I thought I got two questions, but...
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Well, you had six questions, what I counted.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: The chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroeder, was very unpleasant to the president, I thought, a couple years ago Did you not think he was? I thought he was. Maybe...
CROWLEY: Well, I thought the president was pretty unpleasant to Gerhard Schroeder by scrubbing the Kyoto treaty on the very eve of Schroeder's first visit to...
NOVAK: Well, they were unpleasant to each other.
CROWLEY: To Washington in 2001.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: Let me -- let me quote -- let me quote what the chancellor of Germany said Thursday, yesterday.
He said -- quote -- "Nobody wants to conceal that we had different opinions about these things in the past, but that is the past. We have agreed that we are not going to constantly emphasize where we're not agreeing, but we want to focus on where we do agree."
Now, I read that as saying he was saying that, if there was a difficulty between the United States and Germany, there was trouble, there was cause for it on both sides.
CROWLEY: Well, look, Schroeder ran against the president for reelection himself. And now they've both turned a corner. I think this is positive.
I -- you know, the president was very constructive when it comes to our European allies. And, look, we got a little something, one French soldier and some more -- additional cooperation from NATO.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: ... this French soldier.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: But it shows you, when you treat your key allies as partners and not pawns or pariahs, you actually get results.
CARVILLE: Mr. Brookes, Germany, I mean, we have good relations. We rebuilt them. We buy their BMWs and Mercedes and Porches and Volkswagens and cameras and dental equipment and God knows whatnot.
And there was a poll in Germany. And more Germans respect Vladimir Putin, an autocrat, than our own president. What did -- and yet we're trumpeting this trip as some kind of a breathtaking, one French soldier, democratic -- democratic triumph. I mean, what is the matter with these Germans? What is there to like about Putin?
BROOKES: Well, obviously, there are problems with Putin, especially the retrenchment of democracy there.
I don't understand -- I don't understand the German polls. The president has made -- has been successful on a number of points. I think he gets points just for showing up in Europe. And you can't run -- foreign policy is not a popularity poll.
You can't run your foreign policy based on what the French or the Germans think.
(APPLAUSE)
BROOKES: If that is what you think is important, I think you're out of step with reality, James.
(CROSSTALK)
BROOKES: You're going to let the French or the Germans dictate our foreign policy?
CARVILLE: So, let me say this. The success of this trip, we're telling these fourth graders that we're not giving you -- you have got to take these tests. And let's see. Bush gets credit for showing up. I wish I had -- I showed up. What the hell you want me to do?
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: I thought that was the way you got through college, for showing up.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: That was my understanding.
CARVILLE: That's Woody Allen; 85 percent of life is showing up.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: P.J. Crowley, a lot of speculation about this trip was what the president was going to do with Russia, with President Putin.
Well, it turns out, we don't -- they were together alone a long time. I don't know what they talked about, whether they're talked basketball or just what it was.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: But the thing is, there are -- do you criticize -- I don't think he came over and grabbed him by the throat and said, get democratic. Don't you think there is a limit to what the United States can do in micromanaging the internal affairs of Russia?
CROWLEY: Well, no, actually, I believe in the vision that the president put out at his inauguration. Democracy and liberty is the answer in terms of ultimately combating terrorism.
Yesterday was the first test. And I think he kind of had an uneven result. You know, and I part of it is, he put the bar awfully low. What he basically said, as long as you're better than Brezhnev, you're OK.
NOVAK: What do you expect? Do you expect Russia to be like Iowa or something like that?
CROWLEY: No, but I wanted to see something more like Clinton did to...
CARVILLE: Like France, maybe.
CROWLEY: ... Jiang Zemin in 1998, in Beijing. Standing right there in front of a national television audience, he said you're on the wrong side of history.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: But I think, had -- had the president done that yesterday and said, look, right now, Russia needs Mikhail Gorbachev and you're acting like Yuri Andropov, I think he just needed to kind of put Putin back on his heels.
CARVILLE: Let me go through some European countries here and their support for the war in Iraq.
Poland is pulling out 1,700 troops this year. Portugal has pulled out 150 this month. The Netherlands are pulling out 1,700, beginning withdrawals next month. And the Ukraine has a 1,600-troop pullout. Was he successful in getting one more troop in Iraq to help our -- our men and women there from Europe, as we have these massive troop pullouts?
BROOKES: Well, you heard about -- you heard about the NATO proposal.
CARVILLE: We got that one. We got that...
(CROSSTALK) CARVILLE: ... Brussels.
(CROSSTALK)
NOVAK: Let him answer.
BROOKES: On the other side, Saddam Hussein is gone.
CARVILLE: He's gone?
BROOKES: We have had a set of elections. They're putting together a national assembly. They're drafting a constitution. What's wrong with that? Are you against that?
(CROSSTALK)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: All right. All right. All right. That's all.
(CROSSTALK)
CROWLEY: Two hundred billion dollars is what's wrong with that.
CARVILLE: The one Frenchman in Brussels.
NOVAK: Time for a break, James. Time for a break.
CARVILLE: Merci. Merci.
NOVAK: When we come back -- when we come back, I'll tell you why President Bush's trip to Europe was a disaster for Democrats.
Plus, breaking news this hour. There's news of a massive explosion in Israel. We'll bring you the latest.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Miles O'Brien, reporting from Washington.
Coming up at the top of the hour, details on an explosion, an apparent suicide bombing on the beachfront in Tel Aviv, happened at a nightclub in downtown Tel Aviv, dozens of casualties reported, specifically, 30 casualties. More details ahead on this and what appears to be yet another suicide bombing in the Middle East.
Also, a possible break in a decades-old case. Police question a person of interest in their search for the BTK serial killer in Wichita.
A frantic search for a missing Florida girl, meanwhile. We'll show you an emotional plea from her family.
Plus, an update on the pope's condition one day after that surgery. All those stories and much more are moments away on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS."
Now back to CROSSFIRE.
Shaking hands with France's Jacques Chirac, smoothing Germany's Gerhard Schroeder and Russia's Vladimir Putin, wooing Slovakia's citizens. Did five days of overseas P.R. pay off for President Bush? Our guests today are Heritage Foundation senior fellow Peter Brookes and P.J. Crowley, senior fellow with the Center For the American Progress.
NOVAK: P.J., you're a -- you're a double threat. You know national security questions and you also know politics.
Now, Scott Rasmussen, who is an independent pollster, says of this trip, "If you were a Democrat -- if you were the Democrats, you couldn't write a worse script from a political point of view than this trip by the president."
Do you agree with that?
CROWLEY: No, quite the opposite. I think that President Bush on this trip was doing exactly what someone like John Kerry was saying, that you have got to engage your allies. You've got to convince them to go the way that you want to.
The president, had he done this two years ago, we would have more help in Iraq today. We wouldn't have a $2,000 -- $200 billion bill burning our way through our budget.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: Mr. Brookes, do you think that there'll be a lasting benefit of this trip? What do you think will be the sort of lasting benefit here?
BROOKES: I think there has been many opportunities for coordination and consultation.
I'm sure, before Vladimir Putin, that they talked on Russia. Remember, Ukraine is a big success for Europe and the United States. We were able to get those elections back on track. We talked about Iran. We don't have the same methods for dealing with it, necessarily. The E.U. arms embargo to China, big issue. The president had a lot of time to speak to key leaders, the French and the Germans, on this issue.
So, I think this is a major first step, an opportunity for cooperation in the future and we're just going to have to see.
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: Let me go back to my question, P.J., because I'm talking politics. I know...
CROWLEY: Absolutely.
NOVAK: I know that what President Bush is doing are some of the things the Democrats suggested he do. But life is unfair. Isn't it, he is looking good and that's bad for the Democrats?
CROWLEY: No. I mean, let's talk as Americans for a second.
This was a good trip for the United States overall, although, on Iran, for example, while the president did nudge the ball forward and say he is going to be more supportive of the Europeans, we're going to realign our carrots and sticks, still, the issue here is, because of the hard-liners within the administration, we have a stated position, no nukes, but we're no closer to getting...
NOVAK: Who are the hard-liners left?
CROWLEY: What?
NOVAK: Who are the...
CROWLEY: Remember Cheney, Rumsfeld, those two guys? I think they're still hanging around.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: Let me try to go through something here, Mr. Brookes. Mr. Novak keeps saying this. The president won the election, gave the State of the Union, the inaugural address. They had the elections in Iraq. His approval didn't go up 1 percentage point.
NOVAK: Yes, it did. It's gone up. Yes, it did.
CARVILLE: No. It's at 50 percent now.
NOVAK: No, that's not true.
CARVILLE: And Mr. Novak is a great political scientist, saying that he goes, he gets a French troop to go to Brussels and eat chocolate that his approval rating is going to go up?
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: I mean, it may, but, if it does, it ain't going to last very long.
BROOKES: No, I mean, just look at the Russian part of the visit. He met with Putin I think behind closed doors. He made a very important case about the retrenchment of democracy. He got him to do something on loose nukes, very important, got him to destroy surface- to-air missiles that could be used against our civilian airliners.
I think this is very important. And I think down the road, we're going to see benefits. And, look, the president is not -- has to do what's right and not what's popular, OK? That's very important for him to...
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: Thank you.
NOVAK: Peter Brookes, thank you very much.
CARVILLE: Thank you. Thank you very much.
P.J. Crowley, thank you very much.
(CROSSTALK)
(APPLAUSE)
NOVAK: When the Oscars are handed out Sunday night, there is one film nominated that the former Attorney General John Ashcroft probably won't be pulling for. And we'll tell you why next.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: If you've ever been on a commercial flight that offers a movie, you know that the dialogue is far less salty than it is on the theater version.
Take "Sideways," for instance. The Oscar-nominated film is peppered with the A-word. So, according to "The Washington Post," its creators got, well, creative and dubbed over with another A-word that plays a dubious homage to a former United States attorney general. So, instead of, "You blankety-blank,"you will hear the characters calling each other, "You Ashcroft."
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: You know what they say, an Ashcroft by any other name.
(LAUGHTER)
NOVAK: James, how would you like it, when we get a little heated, I said, you know, Carville, you are just an Ashcroft?
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: I would say, that wouldn't be what you were thinking. And you were thinking about using another word. You know, my problem with these things is, I can't watch them on that little-bitty screen anyway, Bob.
From the left, I'm James Carville. That's it for CROSSFIRE, you Ashcroft.
(LAUGHTER) NOVAK: From -- from the right, I'm Robert Novak.
Join me again tomorrow at 10:30 p.m. Eastern for "THE NOVAK ZONE." My topic will be the price of freedom, Americans at war.
"WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
(APPLAUSE)
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