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CNN Crossfire
Who Will Run in 2008?; John Bolton Nomination
Aired May 26, 2005 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE, on the left, James Carville. On the right, Joe Watkins. In the CROSSFIRE, the road to 2008. Is Hillary Clinton the Democrat to beat? Can John McCain win the support of conservatives? Will Democrats give John Kerry a second chance? Could another George win the White House?
Today, on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, James Carville and Joe Watkins.
JAMES CARVILLE, ON THE LEFT: Welcome to CROSSFIRE.
The countdown to 2008 is still a long way away, but it's never too early to talk who might be our next president. Current events can raise one player while knocking another out of consideration. On this day, who's in? Who's out? Joining us today in the CROSSFIRE our former Virginia governor and former RNC chairman Jim Gilmore and Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the DNC.
JOE WATKINS, ON THE RIGHT: Welcome, men, to the CROSSFIRE.
All right now, Hillary Clinton has been saying time and time again, Terry, that her first priority is winning reelection to the U.S. Senate next year. Now, now, Terry, you are one of the best fund- raisers out there. Everybody knows that. You did a great job of raising money for the DNC when you were the chairman. Now, can you tell me with a straight face that she's raising all this money just to be able to give it away to other Democrats to safe-guard her Senate seat in 2006, when the polls show that she's already 30 points ahead of whoever her opponent might be?
TERRY MCAULIFFE, FMR DNC CHAIRMAN: Well, as you know, Joe, every good politician makes sure, first, you're well-financed because there's going to be attacks coming on her in the '06 Senate race. Her first focus is right. She's running for reelection to the United States Senate. She can put a lot of emphasis on that. She can work very hard. She's spending most of her time, as you know, making sure she's delivering for New York state.
WATKINS: But is she the front-runner, do you think? And do you think she's -- I know she has got to be thinking about running for the presidency. I mean, her name is being mentioned again and again. She is the party's favorite, so far, for the presidency.
MCAULIFFE: Well, you saw the poll out today, "USA Today"/CNN poll out today, astounding numbers. Majority of Americans would vote for Hillary for president, 63 percent of the young people, 60 percent of the women.
But it is awful early in this political process to determine who the Democratic nominee will be. She's not talking about it. She's focused on running for reelection. I personally -- I hope she runs, but you know, it is her decision. Let her win reelection in the United States Senate. Let her continue fighting for the voters of New York, getting the money, doing what she needs to do.
CARVILLE: Governor, let's look at some of the polls here. Terry brought it up. Let's look at a couple. I think it show as real contrast here.
Job approval rating of President Bush and Senator Clinton -- there we go. This is in New York state. Her approve is 63. Her disapprove is 38. If you go to see -- to CNN, our own poll that just came out, fresh off the press, President Bush has a 46 percent approval and a 50 percent disapproval in the United States.
I tell you, it sure looks like the opinion of Hillary Clinton exceeds that of any Republican politician right now, and I'd -- seems -- looks like it's pretty good news for her everywhere.
JIM GILMORE (R), FMR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR: I think she'd be very form -- formidable as a candidate, but she's trying the be the new Hillary. You remember, we've seen other politicians trying to be the new -- she's trying to be the new...
CARVILLE: How? I don't understand what she's trying...
GILMORE: Well, she's trying to move to the center.
CARVILLE: And, what is she? I don't -- illuminate me, because I don't...
GILMORE: Oh, she's been -- she's been "the hawk" Hillary, among -- in recent days. But, look, the key point is that people aren't going to really forget what Hillary really is, and she is a liberal and she's very polarizing. She has had that background. She tried, basically, to take medical care in this country...
CARVILLE: Right.
GILMORE: ...and put it into a socialist type of system. And I think people kind of under -- she expressed a little paranoia about the right wing conspiracy and all that, so I think that, you know, at the end of the day, I believe she's trying to be the new Hillary, but she's still the old Hillary.
CARVILLE: Right, right, but 63 percent of the people in her state think she's doing a good job, 46 percent of people in the country think that this president is doing a good job. Look like pretty good numbers to me.
MCAULIFFE: I'd take Hillary's numbers.
CARVILLE: Yeah.
(LAUGHTER, APPLAUSE)
WATKINS: Well, you know, let's talk about another candidate. You know, unlike Al Gore's disappearing act after 2000, John Kerry seems to be taking a page out of Jesse Jackson's book. He's trying to keep hope alive, or at least, so it seems. He's actively out there.
Now, the question is, is -- I mean, obviously, John Kerry would like another run at the presidency, but is there any appetite on the part of Democrats for him to have another stab at it?
MCAULIFFE: Well, sure there is. You've got to remember that John Kerry got 59 million votes for president of the United States America, second of all time only behind, unfortunately for us, by 2 million votes, George Bush. So he got a lot of people to come out and vote for him. It is very early, but I know that, you know, Senator Kerry's looking at it. I think Senator Edwards is looking at it. Senator Evan Bayh, there's talk about -- that he's running. We'll see what happens with Hillary. Governor Richardson is talking -- so there's a lot of names.
The great news for the Democratic party, Joe, is we have a wealth of talent, and any one of them in the job as president can do a better job than this president's doing. The reason he has such bad numbers is, obviously, he's not doing a good job as president. The American people -- they see the high gas prices. They go to fill up their cars every day. They want a change and any one of these candidates is going to bring that change and move this country in the right direction, so we're in a great position, the Democrats.
WATKINS: Well, I think the president is doing a great job. So, I disagree with you of course on those things. But, at the same time, on the Democratic side of the aisle, it appears that Hillary has a huge lead over any of the other candidates you just mentioned.
MCAULIFFE: Right.
WATKINS: How does Kerry overcome that?
MCAULIFFE: Well, I think what people appreciate about Hillary right now is she's fighting hard in the Senate. She's the first New York senator, as you know, to be on the Armed Services Committee. She worked hard, delivered -- Marine One is now going to be built in New York. I'm from upstate New York, Syracuse, New York. She has brought jobs to upstate New York. She is working in a bipartisan way. She met with Newt Gingrich to talk about healthcare.
That's what Americans want to see. They want to see action. They are tired about what they are see going on in Congress, all this fighting over judges and filibuster. They want them focused on their issues. If she is the nominee, and she will layout a positive plan, but it is way too early. We have to go through primaries and all that. We don't know if she's going to run. We would be lucky if she did run, I'll tell you that.
CARVILLE: We speculate early here.
Let's talk about one of the perceived early Republican front- runners, Senator Bill Frist, majority Leader from Tennessee. This is what the "Manchester Union Leader" in New Hampshire -- probably the most influential, very, very conservative, pro-Republican newspaper -- had to say about Senator Frist.
"Frist has again showed that he is no match for Senate Democrats. If he cannot effectively lead 55 Republican senators, how can he be trusted to lead the party and the country three years from now?"
How bad do you think Senator Frist has been hurt? I mean, he's already got the most influential Republican newspaper in New Hampshire -- seems to be pretty angry at him.
MCAULIFFE: Rush Limbaugh...
CARVILLE: Rush Limbaugh said he wanted to puke about this deal. Dobson went off the chart. Every right wing out there. So, how bad do you think Senator Frist has been hurt by this?
GILMORE: You know, it's so early that I think it's almost really wrong and maybe a little silly to try to nail people here this early. You know, I think Frist was trying very hard to lead a very diverse party. Republican party's a very diverse party. Terry's party is a very narrow party, very much on the left side, right, Terry? But -- on the left side.
But the Republican party is very diverse, and I think that Frist was working pretty hard trying to do that. My -- again, my feeling is that we're going to have a lot of candidates. There is no obvious frontrunner on the Republican side. In '08 we're going to have a lot of people. We're going to emerge with an excellent candidate.
CARVILLE: Let me ask you a question. One of them is a senator from Virginia, George Allen. If he runs, will you endorse him?
GILMORE: I'm not going endorse anybody today, but I've worked with Senator Allen.
CARVILLE: (INAUDIBLE)
GILMORE: And I've been -- he was governor when I was the attorney general. He was my immediate predecessor. He's a good man.
CARVILLE: Well, let me ask, (INAUDIBLE) would you just rule out running for president right now? You might keep an open mind?
GILMORE: Listen, I'm thinking about one thing right now, and that is -- I am trying to work really hard to follow up on what I did in Homeland Security and trying to keep the country safe.
CARVILLE: But, I mean, just -- I understand. But, somewhere down the road, it may cross your mind?
GILMORE: I'm not thinking about that. I got a lot of things I'm thinking about, but I'm not thinking about that.
MCAULIFFE: How about a McAuliffe/Gilmore ticket?
CARVILLE: There you go.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: Terry...
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: It's been said, Terry, and there's -- it bears some listening to. It's been said that it's extraordinarily hard for somebody to win the presidency from the Senate. And, obviously, history in recent years has demonstrated that to be the case. And so, you've got all the front-runners right now, I mean, Hillary Clinton, and the others that have been mentioned are all senators.
Now, do you think there's an appetite on the part of the Democratic party to try to push front a governor or somebody who is a former governor? For instance, you've got Bill Richardson. We went to the same boarding school. He's a few years ahead of me at that point, Middlesex School....
MCAULIFFE: You look like the boarding-school type.
WATKINS: One of the finest boarding schools in the country, Middlesex School.
MCAULIFFE: We didn't have boarding schools in Syracuse.
WATKINS: He's the governor of New Mexico...
MCAULIFFE: Right.
WATKINS: ...and somebody who has been talked about as a candidate. Do you think Bill Richardson has a shot?
MCAULIFFE: Sure he does. Absolutely. He's been an outstanding governor out there. He's had tax cuts out there as governor. He's a tremend -- everybody has a shot at this thing. Until the primaries start, anything could happen.
(INAUDIBLE) from the Senate's tough because you have to take so many votes, you have to take so many procedural votes.
WATKINS: Right, you've got a record.
MCAULIFFE: And -- the Bush campaign did to John Kerry, it twisted a lot of his votes around. That's hard when you're in the United States Senate, and people like governors. They run states. They've got to balance the budget. You know, the governor of Virginia now is a great Democrat, Mark Warner, who's done a magnificent job in governing...
CARVILLE: He may run, too. You know what? Sure, yes.
WATKINS: He's trying to keep up with Governor Gilmore.
CARVILLE: All right, gotta get out of here.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: Next on crossfire, what about John McCain's 2008 chances? And, we're standing by for a news conference from the Pentagon. The military will address allegations of Koran and detainee abuse at Guantanamo Bay. CNN will have live coverage.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WATKINS: Who will be the next person to occupy the White House? We're talking about early prospects for a presidential run in '08.
Our guests today are former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe and Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia.
CARVILLE: Governor, the Washington cocktail party crowd -- editorialist, op ed crowd and everything -- is really all in a twitter, quite like I've never seen, over John McCain. I mean, they are fluffing around out there. The second coming.
I personally like Senator McCain myself, most people do. But my understanding he has some real problems within the Republican party and people that vote in primaries. Editorial writers don't vote very much in Republican primaries in Washington. Do you have a sense that he has going to have a lot to overcome out there in the red heartland?
GILMORE: Yes I do. It doesn't me he isn't going to be the nominee, it doesn't mean he isn't going to be president. But that's going to be his set of problems he has to overcome. Which I think is a lot of Republican rank and file probably don't like this sort of maverick type of image. But he did well with it the last time around. But he came up short.
CARVILLE: Did he well. Like I said, the dinner party -- you know, the Georgetown crowd is going ga ga.
GILMORE: Oh, yeah. Who cares about that?
CARVILLE: When he ran -- and again he went a state that let people other than Republicans vote -- ie, New Hampshire, Michigan, he would do fine, where only Republicans could vote, he certainly did less well.
GILMORE: Yes. But in the Virginia primary where everybody could vote he did he not win. The president won Virginia, for example. So you know, again, I'm not saying he can't be nominated. He can be. And he can be president, also. But he has a set of challenges to overcome. And I don't think there's any doubt about that. WATKINS: You know, Terry, if the Iraqi war and national security issues are the dominant issues in 2008, is Hillary really the best person to run? I mean, after all, wouldn't it be better for Democrats to have somebody who already has a history of being against the war, but also has credentials from a security standpoint like Wesley Clark? And we haven't talked about Wesley Clark? What about Wesley Clark? Is he somebody who has another shot at runs for the presidency in '08?
MCAULIFFE: I do. And I saw General Clark the other night at an event. I think he has a real interest in running again. And I hope -- as I said when I was chairman of the party, let's all get in this thing, everyone who wants to run ought to be in it.
But I will tell you, Hillary who has served on the Armed Services Committee -- and I'd answer you Joe, go talk to the folks over at the Department of Defense, and they will tell you what they think of Hillary Clinton. They think she has been an outstanding United States senator, has been fighting for our troops to make sure they have the resources they need to get their job done.
But she is held in very high regard in the Department of Defense. They just appointed her the only senator to the event commission. They ask that she be on it, because of the tremendous fact -- she forks hard. she is very focused, dedicated to her work. And that's what America wants to see.
(APPLAUSE)
GILMORE: The makeover.
CARVILLE: Governor, all the polls show pretty consistently a deteriorating situation in terms of American support for the U.S. presence in Iraq. How -- do you see a Republican calling a U.S. withdrawal possibly before the 2008 election?
GILMORE: Don't know. I think that it depends on how it develops. I know tat the president's aspirations are very idealistic. He wants to try to bring peace and democracy to the Middle East. He's trying hard to do it. The hand still has to play out in the Middle East.
But I will say that I do think that there are a lot of people across the Middle East that do aspire to this better future. And so far, the only guy that's really offered a vision of that future is the president.
CARVILLE: It's not going too well on the ground, as I gather. We don't have much of a prospect of getting anybody the heck out of there.
GILMORE: It isn't going perfectly on the ground by any means. People are suffering and people are dying.
CARVILLE: And our money is going over there at a bit (ph) at about, I think $5 billion a week. GILMORE: All this is true. But at the same time America can stand for the proposition that murder is a good policy. And that's what the enemy is doing.
CARVILLE: Still to come.
GILMORE: You can applaud on that if you'd like, by the way.
(APPLAUSE)
GILMORE: If you can't applaud for unmurder (ph).
CARVILLE: The difference between the Bush administration and a broken clock in our political alerts.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. Coming up at the top of the hour, President Bush meets with the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and promises $50 million in aid.
Is Iraq insurgency leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi wounded, or is he dead? We'll ask the former acting CIA director John McLaughlin.
And if you thought airport delays were bad last summer just wait until you hear the prediction for this summer. All those stories, much more only minutes away on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS." Now back to CROSSFIRE.
WATKINS: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.
It's now time for the best little political briefing in television. Our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
President Bush says he's putting American money where his mouth is. During a Rose Garden news conference with the Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, Mr. Bush announced $50 million in direct aid to the Palestinians. He says the funds are ear marked to quote "improve the quality of life for the Palestinian people." It is the first U.S. aid ever handed directly to the Palestinian authority.
The president also vowed to continue pressing both the Israeli and Palestinian people to hold up their ends of the bargain under the road map for peace.
After they're historic meeting, Abbas said it is time for the conflict with Israel to end. And he says his people are committed to a Democratic state. Let's hope and pray that that's true.
CARVILLE: I hope -- obviously (INAUDIBLE) $50 million for the Palestinians. We've got $5 billion a week in Iraq. He got this -- I tell you one thing, he puts his money where his mouth is it's all over the world because his mouth is everywhere.
WATKINS: The idea is to stop the violence. To stop the violence that's taking place over there and to bring about peace. I think we're on that road.
CARVILLE: That's what we need to do. Just like we're doing in Iraq. We're bringing about peace in Iraq.
WATKINS: Well, democracy in Iraq and peace, too.
CARVILLE: There you go.
OK. Remember when the Egyptians announced that they would have elections and pontificating class announced that it was the triumph for the wisdom of the Iraqi war and Bush's Middle East policy? Well there, you know, but the pontificating class has yet to figure out the difference between the Bush administration, and a broken clock is at least a clock is right twice a day. The Bush administration is never right.
I'll read from this morning's "Washington Post," "officials of President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party, or the NDP, led hundreds of young men who attack anti-government demonstrators. Journalists and witnesses at the scene of several incidents, including this correspondent saw riot police create corridors for stick wielding men to freely charge the demonstrators."
In addition to beating up the opposition during a nation-wide referendum, no opposition candidate can unless approved by Mubarak's own party. And the Bush administration and American press hails this as progress.
WATKINS: Well, you know what progress is? Progress is what happened last week in Kuwait. And thanks to the help, in part, of the administration, the Kuwait parliament decided to allow women to have the right to vote. That's progress.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: You know what, they said this was progress in Egypt. And they beat the hell out of everybody that don't agree with them. That's real progress. I wish I could have thought of that.
WATKINS: Senators could vote this evening on John Bolton's controversial nomination to become the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Debate has been going on since yesterday.
In the meantime, Senators Joe Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut are trying to convince fellow Democrats to vote no to the closing of debate. They say it's not to create a filibuster, but rather to give them time to see documents on Bolton that they requested a month ago.
A vote on cloture is expected this evening. If it passes and the Senate confirmed Bolton's nomination as expected, President Bush would finally get his man into the U.N. to make changes and clean house.
The Democrats need to get the picture, James. It looks like the GOP has the votes to confirm Bolton. The Democrats need to step aside, let it happen, and let Mr. Bolton do the president's work to clean up the U.N.
CARVILLE: Where are the documents? Why don't he produce the documents? I mean -- you know what I mean? They've Got a right to see the documents, they don't want to see. We got this clown over there was manufacturing intelligence and doing everything else.
WATKINS: We have Kofi Annan and a billion dollar scandal that needs to be cleaned up.
CARVILLE: Why don't you produce the documents?
If you think the right is merely stupid and not colossally assinine in stupidity than listen to what I'm getting to say. A successful vaccine to treat a widespread sexually transmitted infection that is responsible for 70 percent of cases of cervical cancer you would think would be supported by everybody. Well, you would be wrong. The Family Research Council, a pro-Bush, right wing operation says they should not approve this because it may encourage people to have premarital sex. It says (INAUDIBLE) pointed out in a recent edition of "The Nation" magazine, and I quote, "raise your hand if you think it would keep girls now is the threat of getting cervical cancer when they are 60-years-old from a virus they have never heard of."
Stupidity at this level is beyond explanation.
WATKINS: It's really about values. And I applaud the Familiar Research Council for having values.
CARVILLE: If you applaud them for trying to keep a drug off of the marketplace that would cut the is cervical cancer rate by 70 percent, that's...
WATKINS: Well, the idea is to provide every incentive for young people not to have premarital sex.
CARVILLE: So, in other words, you have sex, you get cancer. That's a real incentive. That's -- I'm floored.
Just ahead, we'll tell you why federal election officials could have learned by watching "American Idol." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CARVILLE: The producers of "American Idol" may have come up with the right formula for getting a good voter turn-out. In case you weren't watching, Carrie Underwood, a 22-year-old country singer from Oklahoma won the singing competition last night. The field was narrowed and the winner was decided all by viewer voting.
Over the course of the season, about a half a billion votes were cast either by phone or text messaging, roughly 125 million people voted in last year's presidential election. Either people care more about "American Idol" than an American president or candidates need to spend more energy appealing to the couch potato vote.
WATKINS: Can you imagine if we had text messaging in the presidential election? That would be just crazy.
CARVILLE: Well, it was Bo Bice from Alabama.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: Bo Bice was awesome.
CARVILLE: The only Bo I ever knew from Alabama was Bo Jackson. He was my man.
WATKINS: Congratulations, to Carrie, she did he a great job. But Bo was awesome.
CARVILLE: Awesome. All right. "American Idol."
OK. From the left, I'm James Carville. I'm no American idol, I'm just a hardworking TV guy.
WATKINS: From the right, I'm Watkins.
Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE. "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
END
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Aired May 26, 2005 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: CROSSFIRE, on the left, James Carville. On the right, Joe Watkins. In the CROSSFIRE, the road to 2008. Is Hillary Clinton the Democrat to beat? Can John McCain win the support of conservatives? Will Democrats give John Kerry a second chance? Could another George win the White House?
Today, on CROSSFIRE.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Live from the George Washington University, James Carville and Joe Watkins.
JAMES CARVILLE, ON THE LEFT: Welcome to CROSSFIRE.
The countdown to 2008 is still a long way away, but it's never too early to talk who might be our next president. Current events can raise one player while knocking another out of consideration. On this day, who's in? Who's out? Joining us today in the CROSSFIRE our former Virginia governor and former RNC chairman Jim Gilmore and Terry McAuliffe, former chairman of the DNC.
JOE WATKINS, ON THE RIGHT: Welcome, men, to the CROSSFIRE.
All right now, Hillary Clinton has been saying time and time again, Terry, that her first priority is winning reelection to the U.S. Senate next year. Now, now, Terry, you are one of the best fund- raisers out there. Everybody knows that. You did a great job of raising money for the DNC when you were the chairman. Now, can you tell me with a straight face that she's raising all this money just to be able to give it away to other Democrats to safe-guard her Senate seat in 2006, when the polls show that she's already 30 points ahead of whoever her opponent might be?
TERRY MCAULIFFE, FMR DNC CHAIRMAN: Well, as you know, Joe, every good politician makes sure, first, you're well-financed because there's going to be attacks coming on her in the '06 Senate race. Her first focus is right. She's running for reelection to the United States Senate. She can put a lot of emphasis on that. She can work very hard. She's spending most of her time, as you know, making sure she's delivering for New York state.
WATKINS: But is she the front-runner, do you think? And do you think she's -- I know she has got to be thinking about running for the presidency. I mean, her name is being mentioned again and again. She is the party's favorite, so far, for the presidency.
MCAULIFFE: Well, you saw the poll out today, "USA Today"/CNN poll out today, astounding numbers. Majority of Americans would vote for Hillary for president, 63 percent of the young people, 60 percent of the women.
But it is awful early in this political process to determine who the Democratic nominee will be. She's not talking about it. She's focused on running for reelection. I personally -- I hope she runs, but you know, it is her decision. Let her win reelection in the United States Senate. Let her continue fighting for the voters of New York, getting the money, doing what she needs to do.
CARVILLE: Governor, let's look at some of the polls here. Terry brought it up. Let's look at a couple. I think it show as real contrast here.
Job approval rating of President Bush and Senator Clinton -- there we go. This is in New York state. Her approve is 63. Her disapprove is 38. If you go to see -- to CNN, our own poll that just came out, fresh off the press, President Bush has a 46 percent approval and a 50 percent disapproval in the United States.
I tell you, it sure looks like the opinion of Hillary Clinton exceeds that of any Republican politician right now, and I'd -- seems -- looks like it's pretty good news for her everywhere.
JIM GILMORE (R), FMR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR: I think she'd be very form -- formidable as a candidate, but she's trying the be the new Hillary. You remember, we've seen other politicians trying to be the new -- she's trying to be the new...
CARVILLE: How? I don't understand what she's trying...
GILMORE: Well, she's trying to move to the center.
CARVILLE: And, what is she? I don't -- illuminate me, because I don't...
GILMORE: Oh, she's been -- she's been "the hawk" Hillary, among -- in recent days. But, look, the key point is that people aren't going to really forget what Hillary really is, and she is a liberal and she's very polarizing. She has had that background. She tried, basically, to take medical care in this country...
CARVILLE: Right.
GILMORE: ...and put it into a socialist type of system. And I think people kind of under -- she expressed a little paranoia about the right wing conspiracy and all that, so I think that, you know, at the end of the day, I believe she's trying to be the new Hillary, but she's still the old Hillary.
CARVILLE: Right, right, but 63 percent of the people in her state think she's doing a good job, 46 percent of people in the country think that this president is doing a good job. Look like pretty good numbers to me.
MCAULIFFE: I'd take Hillary's numbers.
CARVILLE: Yeah.
(LAUGHTER, APPLAUSE)
WATKINS: Well, you know, let's talk about another candidate. You know, unlike Al Gore's disappearing act after 2000, John Kerry seems to be taking a page out of Jesse Jackson's book. He's trying to keep hope alive, or at least, so it seems. He's actively out there.
Now, the question is, is -- I mean, obviously, John Kerry would like another run at the presidency, but is there any appetite on the part of Democrats for him to have another stab at it?
MCAULIFFE: Well, sure there is. You've got to remember that John Kerry got 59 million votes for president of the United States America, second of all time only behind, unfortunately for us, by 2 million votes, George Bush. So he got a lot of people to come out and vote for him. It is very early, but I know that, you know, Senator Kerry's looking at it. I think Senator Edwards is looking at it. Senator Evan Bayh, there's talk about -- that he's running. We'll see what happens with Hillary. Governor Richardson is talking -- so there's a lot of names.
The great news for the Democratic party, Joe, is we have a wealth of talent, and any one of them in the job as president can do a better job than this president's doing. The reason he has such bad numbers is, obviously, he's not doing a good job as president. The American people -- they see the high gas prices. They go to fill up their cars every day. They want a change and any one of these candidates is going to bring that change and move this country in the right direction, so we're in a great position, the Democrats.
WATKINS: Well, I think the president is doing a great job. So, I disagree with you of course on those things. But, at the same time, on the Democratic side of the aisle, it appears that Hillary has a huge lead over any of the other candidates you just mentioned.
MCAULIFFE: Right.
WATKINS: How does Kerry overcome that?
MCAULIFFE: Well, I think what people appreciate about Hillary right now is she's fighting hard in the Senate. She's the first New York senator, as you know, to be on the Armed Services Committee. She worked hard, delivered -- Marine One is now going to be built in New York. I'm from upstate New York, Syracuse, New York. She has brought jobs to upstate New York. She is working in a bipartisan way. She met with Newt Gingrich to talk about healthcare.
That's what Americans want to see. They want to see action. They are tired about what they are see going on in Congress, all this fighting over judges and filibuster. They want them focused on their issues. If she is the nominee, and she will layout a positive plan, but it is way too early. We have to go through primaries and all that. We don't know if she's going to run. We would be lucky if she did run, I'll tell you that.
CARVILLE: We speculate early here.
Let's talk about one of the perceived early Republican front- runners, Senator Bill Frist, majority Leader from Tennessee. This is what the "Manchester Union Leader" in New Hampshire -- probably the most influential, very, very conservative, pro-Republican newspaper -- had to say about Senator Frist.
"Frist has again showed that he is no match for Senate Democrats. If he cannot effectively lead 55 Republican senators, how can he be trusted to lead the party and the country three years from now?"
How bad do you think Senator Frist has been hurt? I mean, he's already got the most influential Republican newspaper in New Hampshire -- seems to be pretty angry at him.
MCAULIFFE: Rush Limbaugh...
CARVILLE: Rush Limbaugh said he wanted to puke about this deal. Dobson went off the chart. Every right wing out there. So, how bad do you think Senator Frist has been hurt by this?
GILMORE: You know, it's so early that I think it's almost really wrong and maybe a little silly to try to nail people here this early. You know, I think Frist was trying very hard to lead a very diverse party. Republican party's a very diverse party. Terry's party is a very narrow party, very much on the left side, right, Terry? But -- on the left side.
But the Republican party is very diverse, and I think that Frist was working pretty hard trying to do that. My -- again, my feeling is that we're going to have a lot of candidates. There is no obvious frontrunner on the Republican side. In '08 we're going to have a lot of people. We're going to emerge with an excellent candidate.
CARVILLE: Let me ask you a question. One of them is a senator from Virginia, George Allen. If he runs, will you endorse him?
GILMORE: I'm not going endorse anybody today, but I've worked with Senator Allen.
CARVILLE: (INAUDIBLE)
GILMORE: And I've been -- he was governor when I was the attorney general. He was my immediate predecessor. He's a good man.
CARVILLE: Well, let me ask, (INAUDIBLE) would you just rule out running for president right now? You might keep an open mind?
GILMORE: Listen, I'm thinking about one thing right now, and that is -- I am trying to work really hard to follow up on what I did in Homeland Security and trying to keep the country safe.
CARVILLE: But, I mean, just -- I understand. But, somewhere down the road, it may cross your mind?
GILMORE: I'm not thinking about that. I got a lot of things I'm thinking about, but I'm not thinking about that.
MCAULIFFE: How about a McAuliffe/Gilmore ticket?
CARVILLE: There you go.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: Terry...
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: It's been said, Terry, and there's -- it bears some listening to. It's been said that it's extraordinarily hard for somebody to win the presidency from the Senate. And, obviously, history in recent years has demonstrated that to be the case. And so, you've got all the front-runners right now, I mean, Hillary Clinton, and the others that have been mentioned are all senators.
Now, do you think there's an appetite on the part of the Democratic party to try to push front a governor or somebody who is a former governor? For instance, you've got Bill Richardson. We went to the same boarding school. He's a few years ahead of me at that point, Middlesex School....
MCAULIFFE: You look like the boarding-school type.
WATKINS: One of the finest boarding schools in the country, Middlesex School.
MCAULIFFE: We didn't have boarding schools in Syracuse.
WATKINS: He's the governor of New Mexico...
MCAULIFFE: Right.
WATKINS: ...and somebody who has been talked about as a candidate. Do you think Bill Richardson has a shot?
MCAULIFFE: Sure he does. Absolutely. He's been an outstanding governor out there. He's had tax cuts out there as governor. He's a tremend -- everybody has a shot at this thing. Until the primaries start, anything could happen.
(INAUDIBLE) from the Senate's tough because you have to take so many votes, you have to take so many procedural votes.
WATKINS: Right, you've got a record.
MCAULIFFE: And -- the Bush campaign did to John Kerry, it twisted a lot of his votes around. That's hard when you're in the United States Senate, and people like governors. They run states. They've got to balance the budget. You know, the governor of Virginia now is a great Democrat, Mark Warner, who's done a magnificent job in governing...
CARVILLE: He may run, too. You know what? Sure, yes.
WATKINS: He's trying to keep up with Governor Gilmore.
CARVILLE: All right, gotta get out of here.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: Next on crossfire, what about John McCain's 2008 chances? And, we're standing by for a news conference from the Pentagon. The military will address allegations of Koran and detainee abuse at Guantanamo Bay. CNN will have live coverage.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WATKINS: Who will be the next person to occupy the White House? We're talking about early prospects for a presidential run in '08.
Our guests today are former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe and Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia.
CARVILLE: Governor, the Washington cocktail party crowd -- editorialist, op ed crowd and everything -- is really all in a twitter, quite like I've never seen, over John McCain. I mean, they are fluffing around out there. The second coming.
I personally like Senator McCain myself, most people do. But my understanding he has some real problems within the Republican party and people that vote in primaries. Editorial writers don't vote very much in Republican primaries in Washington. Do you have a sense that he has going to have a lot to overcome out there in the red heartland?
GILMORE: Yes I do. It doesn't me he isn't going to be the nominee, it doesn't mean he isn't going to be president. But that's going to be his set of problems he has to overcome. Which I think is a lot of Republican rank and file probably don't like this sort of maverick type of image. But he did well with it the last time around. But he came up short.
CARVILLE: Did he well. Like I said, the dinner party -- you know, the Georgetown crowd is going ga ga.
GILMORE: Oh, yeah. Who cares about that?
CARVILLE: When he ran -- and again he went a state that let people other than Republicans vote -- ie, New Hampshire, Michigan, he would do fine, where only Republicans could vote, he certainly did less well.
GILMORE: Yes. But in the Virginia primary where everybody could vote he did he not win. The president won Virginia, for example. So you know, again, I'm not saying he can't be nominated. He can be. And he can be president, also. But he has a set of challenges to overcome. And I don't think there's any doubt about that. WATKINS: You know, Terry, if the Iraqi war and national security issues are the dominant issues in 2008, is Hillary really the best person to run? I mean, after all, wouldn't it be better for Democrats to have somebody who already has a history of being against the war, but also has credentials from a security standpoint like Wesley Clark? And we haven't talked about Wesley Clark? What about Wesley Clark? Is he somebody who has another shot at runs for the presidency in '08?
MCAULIFFE: I do. And I saw General Clark the other night at an event. I think he has a real interest in running again. And I hope -- as I said when I was chairman of the party, let's all get in this thing, everyone who wants to run ought to be in it.
But I will tell you, Hillary who has served on the Armed Services Committee -- and I'd answer you Joe, go talk to the folks over at the Department of Defense, and they will tell you what they think of Hillary Clinton. They think she has been an outstanding United States senator, has been fighting for our troops to make sure they have the resources they need to get their job done.
But she is held in very high regard in the Department of Defense. They just appointed her the only senator to the event commission. They ask that she be on it, because of the tremendous fact -- she forks hard. she is very focused, dedicated to her work. And that's what America wants to see.
(APPLAUSE)
GILMORE: The makeover.
CARVILLE: Governor, all the polls show pretty consistently a deteriorating situation in terms of American support for the U.S. presence in Iraq. How -- do you see a Republican calling a U.S. withdrawal possibly before the 2008 election?
GILMORE: Don't know. I think that it depends on how it develops. I know tat the president's aspirations are very idealistic. He wants to try to bring peace and democracy to the Middle East. He's trying hard to do it. The hand still has to play out in the Middle East.
But I will say that I do think that there are a lot of people across the Middle East that do aspire to this better future. And so far, the only guy that's really offered a vision of that future is the president.
CARVILLE: It's not going too well on the ground, as I gather. We don't have much of a prospect of getting anybody the heck out of there.
GILMORE: It isn't going perfectly on the ground by any means. People are suffering and people are dying.
CARVILLE: And our money is going over there at a bit (ph) at about, I think $5 billion a week. GILMORE: All this is true. But at the same time America can stand for the proposition that murder is a good policy. And that's what the enemy is doing.
CARVILLE: Still to come.
GILMORE: You can applaud on that if you'd like, by the way.
(APPLAUSE)
GILMORE: If you can't applaud for unmurder (ph).
CARVILLE: The difference between the Bush administration and a broken clock in our political alerts.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Wolf Blitzer in Washington. Coming up at the top of the hour, President Bush meets with the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and promises $50 million in aid.
Is Iraq insurgency leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi wounded, or is he dead? We'll ask the former acting CIA director John McLaughlin.
And if you thought airport delays were bad last summer just wait until you hear the prediction for this summer. All those stories, much more only minutes away on "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS." Now back to CROSSFIRE.
WATKINS: Welcome back to CROSSFIRE.
It's now time for the best little political briefing in television. Our CROSSFIRE "Political Alert."
President Bush says he's putting American money where his mouth is. During a Rose Garden news conference with the Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, Mr. Bush announced $50 million in direct aid to the Palestinians. He says the funds are ear marked to quote "improve the quality of life for the Palestinian people." It is the first U.S. aid ever handed directly to the Palestinian authority.
The president also vowed to continue pressing both the Israeli and Palestinian people to hold up their ends of the bargain under the road map for peace.
After they're historic meeting, Abbas said it is time for the conflict with Israel to end. And he says his people are committed to a Democratic state. Let's hope and pray that that's true.
CARVILLE: I hope -- obviously (INAUDIBLE) $50 million for the Palestinians. We've got $5 billion a week in Iraq. He got this -- I tell you one thing, he puts his money where his mouth is it's all over the world because his mouth is everywhere.
WATKINS: The idea is to stop the violence. To stop the violence that's taking place over there and to bring about peace. I think we're on that road.
CARVILLE: That's what we need to do. Just like we're doing in Iraq. We're bringing about peace in Iraq.
WATKINS: Well, democracy in Iraq and peace, too.
CARVILLE: There you go.
OK. Remember when the Egyptians announced that they would have elections and pontificating class announced that it was the triumph for the wisdom of the Iraqi war and Bush's Middle East policy? Well there, you know, but the pontificating class has yet to figure out the difference between the Bush administration, and a broken clock is at least a clock is right twice a day. The Bush administration is never right.
I'll read from this morning's "Washington Post," "officials of President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party, or the NDP, led hundreds of young men who attack anti-government demonstrators. Journalists and witnesses at the scene of several incidents, including this correspondent saw riot police create corridors for stick wielding men to freely charge the demonstrators."
In addition to beating up the opposition during a nation-wide referendum, no opposition candidate can unless approved by Mubarak's own party. And the Bush administration and American press hails this as progress.
WATKINS: Well, you know what progress is? Progress is what happened last week in Kuwait. And thanks to the help, in part, of the administration, the Kuwait parliament decided to allow women to have the right to vote. That's progress.
(APPLAUSE)
CARVILLE: You know what, they said this was progress in Egypt. And they beat the hell out of everybody that don't agree with them. That's real progress. I wish I could have thought of that.
WATKINS: Senators could vote this evening on John Bolton's controversial nomination to become the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Debate has been going on since yesterday.
In the meantime, Senators Joe Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut are trying to convince fellow Democrats to vote no to the closing of debate. They say it's not to create a filibuster, but rather to give them time to see documents on Bolton that they requested a month ago.
A vote on cloture is expected this evening. If it passes and the Senate confirmed Bolton's nomination as expected, President Bush would finally get his man into the U.N. to make changes and clean house.
The Democrats need to get the picture, James. It looks like the GOP has the votes to confirm Bolton. The Democrats need to step aside, let it happen, and let Mr. Bolton do the president's work to clean up the U.N.
CARVILLE: Where are the documents? Why don't he produce the documents? I mean -- you know what I mean? They've Got a right to see the documents, they don't want to see. We got this clown over there was manufacturing intelligence and doing everything else.
WATKINS: We have Kofi Annan and a billion dollar scandal that needs to be cleaned up.
CARVILLE: Why don't you produce the documents?
If you think the right is merely stupid and not colossally assinine in stupidity than listen to what I'm getting to say. A successful vaccine to treat a widespread sexually transmitted infection that is responsible for 70 percent of cases of cervical cancer you would think would be supported by everybody. Well, you would be wrong. The Family Research Council, a pro-Bush, right wing operation says they should not approve this because it may encourage people to have premarital sex. It says (INAUDIBLE) pointed out in a recent edition of "The Nation" magazine, and I quote, "raise your hand if you think it would keep girls now is the threat of getting cervical cancer when they are 60-years-old from a virus they have never heard of."
Stupidity at this level is beyond explanation.
WATKINS: It's really about values. And I applaud the Familiar Research Council for having values.
CARVILLE: If you applaud them for trying to keep a drug off of the marketplace that would cut the is cervical cancer rate by 70 percent, that's...
WATKINS: Well, the idea is to provide every incentive for young people not to have premarital sex.
CARVILLE: So, in other words, you have sex, you get cancer. That's a real incentive. That's -- I'm floored.
Just ahead, we'll tell you why federal election officials could have learned by watching "American Idol." Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CARVILLE: The producers of "American Idol" may have come up with the right formula for getting a good voter turn-out. In case you weren't watching, Carrie Underwood, a 22-year-old country singer from Oklahoma won the singing competition last night. The field was narrowed and the winner was decided all by viewer voting.
Over the course of the season, about a half a billion votes were cast either by phone or text messaging, roughly 125 million people voted in last year's presidential election. Either people care more about "American Idol" than an American president or candidates need to spend more energy appealing to the couch potato vote.
WATKINS: Can you imagine if we had text messaging in the presidential election? That would be just crazy.
CARVILLE: Well, it was Bo Bice from Alabama.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: Bo Bice was awesome.
CARVILLE: The only Bo I ever knew from Alabama was Bo Jackson. He was my man.
WATKINS: Congratulations, to Carrie, she did he a great job. But Bo was awesome.
CARVILLE: Awesome. All right. "American Idol."
OK. From the left, I'm James Carville. I'm no American idol, I'm just a hardworking TV guy.
WATKINS: From the right, I'm Watkins.
Join us again next time for another edition of CROSSFIRE. "WOLF BLITZER REPORTS" starts right now.
END
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