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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Will Republicans Take Senate?; Joe Biden Optimistic; Interview with Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz; Interview with Former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

Aired November 03, 2014 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: I'm Jake Tapper. And I approve this message.

This is THE LEAD.

The politics lead, too close to call, races that could decide where the power lies in Washington. Those races are getting even closer with fewer than 24 hours to go. We will have the final polls before America votes.

The vice president on election eve, he claims he's confident his fellow Democrats will keep control of the Senate. But are he and the president preparing a plan B just in case?

Plus, these are the TV ads that will make you want to take a hot shower. Not only are they nasty. Many are just plain wrong. We will look at some of the sleaziest ads of this election cycle and we will call out the biggest outright lies.

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

Of course we're going to begin with the politics lead.

We're now just under 27 hours from first poll closing in the midterm elections, a vote that could change the balance of power in Washington. And just when you thought it couldn't get any closer, the polls are getting even tighter in states that Republicans must win and Democrats must keep in order to keep control of the Senate.

But even this late in the game, neither party knows what's going to happen.

Our chief national correspondent, John King, is over at the magic wall to break it all down for us.

John, where do we stand right in these final few hours?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, they say in football any given Sunday. In elections, maybe it should be any given Tuesday. We have so many races so close. We're going right down to the end.

So, let's set the table. You mentioned the biggest prize, control of the United States Senate. Democrats start at 55. That's including two independents, Republicans at 45. We know how most of the big races are going to go tomorrow night.

So, there have been 13 we're watching as we watch the balance of power shape. But even Democrats now concede on election eve Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia all but certain to go into the Republican fold as pickups. That would put at 45-45 with 10 races left on the board. The Republicans sweep them all, they get to 55.

Now, that is not likely, but it's not inconceivable. The question is, can Democrats possibly, possibly hold their majority? Let me give you one scenario that would be what I will call hold the blues. The president won Iowa twice. He won Colorado twice. He won New Hampshire twice. He won North Korea once.

If the Democrats can somehow hold those states, then they would be at 49. They would need only one more of these six. Remember, the magic number for Democrats is 50 because of Vice President Joe Biden. For Republicans, it's 51. Is that a likely scenario?

Here's the problem, Jake. You mentioned those late polls. At the moment, the most polls show the Republican ahead in Iowa. There was one showing it much closer. In Colorado, the polls show the Republican ahead. So, what happens? Can the Democrats hold the majority if they lose Colorado and if they lose Iowa, but hold onto New Hampshire, where the polls have also tightened of late, and North Carolina?

In this scenario, Republican wins in Iowa and Colorado, here's where it gets really hard. Jake, look at that, 47 to 47. The Democrats would have to win three of these six states, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Georgia. The president did miserable in both elections in those states. The president is underwater in most of those states. Most people think that's unlikely. Is it impossible? No.

But if they don't -- the Democrats must hold Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire to have a prayer.

TAPPER: John, one of the first lessons I learned in covering politics, it's now where the poll numbers are. It's where they're going. Where are they trending? The momentum appears to be in many of these races in the favor of the Republicans at this late hour.

(CROSSTALK)

KING: It does.

(CROSSTALK)

KING: We will get clues to this pretty early on, on election night.

The polls close at 7:00 in some states, 7:30 in North Carolina, 8:00 in others. Those states in that first few hours include New Hampshire, North Carolina and Georgia as well as the state of Kentucky. If Mitch McConnell is in trouble in Kentucky, we will know the Democrats are having a good night. They tend to count actually pretty quickly in Kentucky as well. Mitch McConnell's been leading in the late polls. He expects to win

this state and he expects, Jake, to be majority leader. But watch that. He thinks he has late momentum there. Today, after a bit of a nervous weekend, Republicans are saying they think they have momentum in Georgia. But let's see if Michelle Nunn can, A, crack a victory on election night or, B, at least force a runoff.

We will watch that early on, momentum there. And Republicans say in the last 48 hours, they have closed the gap in both New Hampshire and North Carolina to a chance where they think they have a chance for what would be upsets there.

The Democrats have been ahead from the beginning. So watch New Hampshire and watch North Carolina. If that momentum is true on the Republican side, if they can win one or both of those states, then we will know it's a red night. But guess what? I think we're going to have a long night counting some votes.

TAPPER: All right, I'm preparing, I'm preparing for tomorrow. John King, thank you so much.

It is last-minute madness on the campaign trail with final pleas to voters in critical states and a blitz by faces you might be seeing a lot more of as we approach 2016.

The best political team on TV is on the ground across the country for us.

Pamela Brown is live in Des Moines, Iowa. Brianna Keilar is in Louisville, Kentucky. Suzanne Malveaux is live in her native New Orleans.

Let's go first to CNN's Pamela Brown.

Pam, a Quinnipiac poll out today shows this race is a dead heat between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right.

This latest poll showing that the race is still very much a tossup. Many of the polls here have been extremely close between these two candidates. But on Saturday night here in Des Moines, a bombshell. "The Des Moines Register" had a poll with Joni Ernst, the Republican candidate, up by seven points.

Democrats I have spoken with on the ground here say they believe that poll is an outlier. Republicans say that's clear sign that they have the momentum going into tomorrow. But what is clear here is that both sides feel like they have a good chance of winning this tomorrow, crossing the finish line as a winner.

Right now, as we speak, volunteers are fanning out across Iowa, knocking on doors, trying to get those last-minute early votes and trying to get those outstanding ballots. That's really key for Democrats because they don't have the lead that they really need heading into tomorrow. It's a razor-thin margin, up 7,000 votes in early votes.

They want more going into tomorrow. That's the big focus for both parties. And the stakes are very high here. You can really feel it on the ground, because people know that whoever wins the Senate race could tip the balance of power for the Senate -- Jake.

TAPPER: Iowa, pivotal state.

Let's go now to CNN senior political correspondent Brianna Keilar, and she's live in Louisville, where the Senate Republican leader is fighting for his political life. Over the weekend, CNN learned that Republican strategists have already told the Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, that he will indeed be the next majority leader.

But the Democrat, Alison Lundergan Grimes, she is not giving up.

Things got a little emotional in Kentucky over the weekend, Brianna.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: They sure did, Jake.

Polls showing consistently that Senator Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has an edge here by several points, an enviable edge if you would talk to a lot of people in these tough races. He's hoping of course to hang on for reelection and also to help push the Senate to Republicans whereby he would become Senate majority leader.

This has been a hard-fought race though against Alison Lundergan Grimes, a really promising young Democratic woman. She's the secretary of state here in Kentucky. And both of them giving it their all here this last day of campaigning, seven events today for Mitch McConnell, nine for Grimes, who just last night gave us a glimpse of just how tough a battle this has been.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALISON LUNDERGAN GRIMES (D), KENTUCKY SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: You are the messenger that Mitch McConnell can't buy. He can buy the airwaves, but he cannot buy the hearts and minds of each and every one of you. You know that after 30 years, three decades of Mitch McConnell, we deserve better.

We're coming down the homestretch. And let me tell you, this strong independent Kentucky woman, I have got kick left still in me. I'm not giving up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Of course, though, Jake, this is not over until all of the ballots are counted, because if this is a tough political environment for Democrats, it's also tough for incumbents and Kentuckians first voted to send Mitch McConnell to Washington all the way back in 1984.

TAPPER: 1984. All right, Brianna Keilar.

Let's now go to CNN's Suzanne Malveaux. She's live in her hometown of New Orleans.

Suzanne, in Louisiana, this is one of the races that could stretch election night all the way into December.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Jake, I really think we're going to be up late through the night Tuesday, early into the morning and potentially another six weeks.

This is a jungle primary. We do things a little bit different in Louisiana here. It means all the candidates running against each other, if they don't get that 50 percent plus one, there will be a runoff in December. Senator Landrieu of course looking for that 50 percent plus-one. She is the incumbent.

It is going to be a tough, tough race. Very likely that she will have a runoff with Congressman Bill Cassidy. Now, Cassidy's been hammering her on linking her to Obama votes 97 percent of the time. She has been trying to distance herself from the president.

She's got the name brand recognition, but she absolutely has to have the African-American vote. That is critical. They have got to come out in large numbers. That's part of her base. She needs women as well. And she's got to distinguish herself from the president, which she has been trying to do, emphasizing that her energy policy is different than the president's.

So we are going to see those differences play out in the next 48 hours. But it is going to be a nail-biter. Jake, I can't tell you, emphasize enough that this is something that is likely going to last for six weeks -- Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Suzanne Malveaux.

Pamela, Brianna, Suzanne, thank, all of you.

He is the tie-breaking vote in the U.S. Senate. And he's either being extremely optimistic or he's not reading the same polls that the rest of us are. Vice President Joe Biden telling CNN that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. Does he know something that we don't? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

More politics now. He's been crisscrossing the country campaigning for Democrats in states where President Obama would get about as warm a welcome as a traffic jam. And despite the many, many polls that show his party is in for an Election Day pounding, Vice President Joe Biden is trying to strike an optimistic tone.

In an exclusive interview with CNN's chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, on the campaign trail in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Biden talked about Democrats defying the odds, and yet he already seems to be preparing for a plan B, strategizing for how the White House might deal with a Republican-controlled House and Senate. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSEPH BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: First of all, I don't agree with the oddsmakers. I predict we are going to keep the Senate.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You do?

BIDEN: I have been into 66, 67 races, all told, and I don't get the feeling that the oddsmakers are giving.

BORGER: But what if that were to be the case?

(CROSSTALK)

BIDEN: Well, I don't think it will change anything in terms of what we -- what we're about.

We know what we have to get done the last two years. And, quite frankly, going into 2016, the Republicans have to make a decision, whether they're in control or not in control, are they going to begin to allow things to happen, or are they going to continue to be obstructionists? And I think they're going to choose to get things done.

BORGER: Would the White House have to change the way that it does business?

BIDEN: No, I don't think we have to change the way we're doing it (ph). I think we have to be -- I think we have to be more direct and clear about exactly what it is we're looking to do. And, look, we're ready to compromise. I think they're going to be inclined because the message from the people -- I'm getting it all over the country -- is they're tired of Washington not being able to do anything.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Gloria Borger joins me now live. Gloria, did you ask Biden about President Obama not being asked to hit the campaign trail and campaign with candidates, especially in these tight races and battleground states?

BORGER: Right, I did. And not surprisingly, Jake, he was saying, look, I've run for the Senate numerous times. I know all those races are local. I know these are tough states.

He also gave me a little bit of a history lesson and said, you know, this happened with Bush 41, it happened with Bush 43, it happened with Ronald Reagan. Of course, when it happened with George W. Bush in 2006, he did lose control of the Senate, I might add.

So, you know, he did say he understood it. But privately White House folks, as you know, I'm sure, are sort of now saying, well, you know what, maybe the president in some of these states could have helped get out the Obama coalition because a lot of Democrats are having a hard time reconstructing that coalition and the base without the president himself.

TAPPER: Young voters, single women, minorities --

BORGER: Right, minorities, exactly. And that's what Joe Biden was trying to do in Florida yesterday. He was in front of a predominantly African-American audience saying, let's get out the vote here. You've got to go to the polls. There's early voting in Florida. So, that's what Biden was trying to do for Governor -- for Crist, sorry, not governor.

TAPPER: Well, he's former governor.

BORGER: Former governor, right, yes.

TAPPER: Aspiring Governor Crist.

BORGER: Right.

TAPPER: There will be more of that on THE SITUATION ROOM coming up. Thank you so much, Gloria.

BORGER: Sure.

TAPPER: So, how is the vice president's acknowledgment that Republicans could pull off an Election Day sweep, how is that sitting with members of his party?

Joining me now live is Florida Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz. She's chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee.

Congresswoman, thanks so much for joining us.

REP. DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ (D-FL), DNC CHAIRWOMAN: Thank you, Jake.

TAPPER: Vice President Biden says Democrats are going to keep the Senate, but clearly preparing for a change with all the lessons, historical precedents that he gave, Gloria, talking about how the White House should be ready to compromise with the Republican Congress. Should the Democratic Party as a whole be preparing for this takeover?

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: I agree with the vice president. We're going to hold the Senate tomorrow night.

And the reason we're going to hold the Senate, Jake, is twofold. We have -- going into Election Day -- a superior ground game that's run circles around the Republicans. We have more absentee ballots, 25,000 more absentee ballots requested in Iowa and more returned in Iowa. We have almost 50 percent of the early vote in North Carolina, is Democrats, to 32 percent for the Republicans.

We really significantly increased our early vote turnout here in Florida over our 2010 turnout. And this was a razor-thin election four years ago. Charlie Crist will be elected the first Democratic governor in the 21st century in Florida because the bottom line is voters are going to the polls the last few weeks and tomorrow asking themselves one question, who has my back, who cares about the issues that matter the most to me, making sure I can reach the middle class and fighting for me to be able to succeed and Republicans who have taken us backwards.

So, in terms of compromise --

TAPPER: I guess we'll see, yes.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Yes, sure, we'll see.

But in terms of compromise, you know, Republicans have been obstructionists over and over again. And Ted Cruz just today doubled down on that obstruction and promised that if for some strange reason they do take the majority, that he's going to push as hard as he can to make sure that just like the obstruction in the House, that the Senate digs in and does as much to block the president and stop him from making progress as they could. That's we can express.

TAPPER: Congresswoman, do you think it's been an effective strategy for so many Democrats to distance themselves from President Obama as much as they have this cycle? Or should more Democrats in battleground districts, battleground states have talked about President Obama in a positive way, tried to get the Obama coalition out, talked about the economy improving?

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Jake, the president really is our best asset. He's our best GOTV motivator, our best fundraiser. He's let us --

TAPPER: But he hasn't been deployed, he hasn't been deployed.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Look, I'll sack up our surrogates against Republican surrogates any day. We've got President Obama and Vice President Biden, Secretary Clinton, President Clinton, and they've got Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and Rand Paul. So, we're in pretty good shape in terms of who's been deployed to stump for our candidates.

But look at what we've got in terms of President Obama's success as a president, 55 straight months of job growth in the private sector --

TAPPER: But this is exactly my point.

(CROSSTALK)

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: -- since the Great Depression.

TAPPER: Congresswoman, this is exactly my point. This is what I don't hear from a lot of Democratic candidates.

In fact, let's just take one -- in Colorado, Democratic Senator Mark Udall, he's in an incredibly tight reelection race. You don't hear him talking about what you were just talking about, as much as you hear him talking about women's reproductive rights. He's been mockingly referred to as "Senator Uterus." And according to "The Guardian" newspaper, Udall on Sunday was giving a speech to the faithful, the Democratic faithful, he said, "I'm proud to stand for reproductive freedom", and immediately, a top Colorado Democratic donor in the crowd yelled out, "That's the only thing you stand for, Jesus Christ!" He's giving voice to the frustration many Democrats have expressed that Udall has talked too much about women's reproductive rights and not enough about other issues like the economy.

Do you think it's time to get a new playbook for Democrats, instead of this war on women thing that has worked in the past but doesn't seem to be that effective this year?

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Jake, there's a reason that women voters are turning out and overwhelmingly supporting our Democratic candidates like Mark Udall, like Bruce Braley. I mean, the gap between Republicans and Democrats with women is huge not only because we've supported women's right to make their own health care choices instead f of their bosses or politicians, but also because we support equal pay for equal work and the Republicans have blocked it at every turn.

And we support an increase in minimum wage and Republicans don't and have blocked it every turn.

So, the pocketbook, bread-and-butter middle class issues that voters are going to be deciding these elections on are what is going to drive our success tomorrow. And at the end of the day, that is the question that will turn on for every single voter. They want to make sure that they've got elected officials all across this country -- and I'm on the ballot tomorrow, too -- I know what I hear from my constituents is that they want us to work together. They want us to focus on jobs and the economy.

What they don't want is a Republican majority in the Senate that would double down on suing the president for doing his job or shutting the government down like Ted Cruz led the fight to do it a year ago which cost our economy $24 billion.

TAPPER: All right.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: That's what we can expect. And if Republicans do take over -- I don't think they will, because I think voters across the country will reject their brand of Republican Tea Party extremism.

TAPPER: And the beauty is we get to see what they're actually going to do tomorrow.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Yes, we do.

TAPPER: Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, thank you so much.

WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Thank you.

TAPPER: Coming up, with polls as close as they are in several key states, are Republicans really sure they can pull off a Senate victory tomorrow night? I'll ask one prominent Republican coming up next.

Plus, using every tactic they can to eke out a win, the candidates who are flat-out lying to voters and the nastiest ads of the election. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. Welcome to our election eve bonanza.

Control of the Senate could, should come down to a few pivotal races in battleground states across the country. Still, even though a number of polls show Republicans ahead, some Republican operatives are worried. There are still too many unknowns, too many races or polls within the margin of error.

Here to talk about how tomorrow could play out, former Republican National Committee chairman and former governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour.

Governor, thanks so much for being here.

HALEY BARBOUR (R), FORMER MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR: Thank you for having me, Jake.

TAPPER: Appreciate it.

So, it looks promising for the Republicans. And yet you haven't sealed the deal. There are still a lot of states where no one knows what's going to happen with Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin, Governor Rick Scott in Florida. There are still states where it's unclear what's going to happen in Alaska, Louisiana.

Why haven't Republicans sold the deal yet?

BARBOUR: Well, first of all, I think it's more likely than not the Republicans will have a majority in the Senate after these elections. But it's not a certainty. Never is in politics. People shouldn't take things for granted.

But what Republicans have done is they are doing very well in all the states that Romney carried --

TAPPER: Except North Carolina.

BARBOUR: And I wouldn't count out Thom Tillis in North Carolina. His biggest problem, frankly, is the libertarian. If the libertarian which is taking some of the anti-Obama vote gets enough votes, that may let Hagan slip in the back door without a majority.

TAPPER: I guess my point is, isn't this -- this might be -- I think it's going to be a good night for Republicans. At least that's what all the polls show, but it doesn't seem like the American people are becoming more conservative or really embracing the GOP brand.

BARBOUR: Well, Barack Obama was right when he said -- while his name's not on the ballot, his policies are. And his policies are very unpopular because they've had bad results. And so this is a referendum on him. And then President Obama, so you don't have to take my word for it,

President Obama says, and the people that are running for reelection in the Senate are his people. They're the ones that helped him pass these unpopular policies.

That is overrided, rather than people in a midterm election saying, we want to vote for these guys, they're saying, what we've got doesn't work, we want a change. And we're going to give the Republicans a chance.

TAPPER: Right.

BARBOUR: They need to understand, they're getting a chance. They're not -- they're not giving us control of the government.

TAPPER: Right. And that's the question I have next is what does it mean? The Republicans take over the Senate. What then? Is it going to be bills that the president can sign into law or just a bunch of legislation and just veto after veto after veto?

BARBOUR: Well, if the president has the attitude he's had throughout to not work with anybody who doesn't have to do exactly what he wants --

TAPPER: That's not fair. I mean, President Obama did try to work with Republicans on health care, Republicans in the Senate.

BARBOUR: Well, look, President Obama made a deal with John Boehner on taxes and then welched on the deal. He said, I've got to have $400 billion in new taxes.

If President Obama says, I've got to have another trillion dollars in new taxes to get tax reform, he's going to get a tax reform bill that doesn't have that and he's going to have to decide whether to sign it.

But I think you'll see the Republicans -- economic growth, job creation, higher incomes for people who work, health care reform, energy. And the reason that you'll see that is they're going to try to make this country get back on its feet and people to have a positive view of where we're going.