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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Election Night Preview; Misleading Ads: The Worst Of The Worst

Aired November 03, 2014 - 16:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

TAPPER: Let me just play this for you. This is Tony Perkins from the Family Research Council, a very powerful group among Republicans, talking about what the priority should be for Republicans if they win.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY PERKINS, FAMILY RESEARCH COUNCIL: If the Republicans do capture the Senate, there's no more excuses about impeachment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Republicans are going to have a lot of that to deal with, too, if they control the House and the Senate. People like Tony Perkins saying, time to impeach President Obama.

BARBOUR: In the U.S. Constitution, incompetence is not grounds for impeachment.

TAPPER: Haley Barbour, thank you very much, appreciate your time.

One possible presidential candidate has a message for Republicans this election. It is, the Republican brand, quote, and I'm quoting, "sucks." And the potential 2016 hopeful saying it? He's a Republican himself. Stay with us. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to "The Lead." In continuing coverage of our politics lead, Republicans and Democrats have already knocked on millions of doors, robo-called untold numbers of phones, and most definitely dragged their opponents through gutters across the country -- figuratively, of course. Now it's up to you, the voters. What are you going to do? What will it mean?

Here to cut through the clutter, national editor for the "Cook Political Report," Amy Walter, CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter and CNN political commentator and Republican strategist, Kevin Madden. Amy, I want to start with you, because you told me something very interesting in the green room before, which is that you've looked, you at the Cook Political Report, have looked at these elections in the past, and when it comes to the people who are making up their minds in the last few days, they go one direction generally.

AMY WALTER, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: There's the general rule about if you're an incumbent and you're behind on election day, all the undecided votes are going to break for your opponent. But what we found is when you look at the closest races coming into election day, so this is the last eight cycles, we looked at all the races we listed as toss-up races, and almost 80 percent of the time they ended up breaking to one party or the other. So 80 percent of those races, they don't break 50/50. They break 80/20, 70/30.

TAPPER: Against the party in the White House?

WALTER: Well, it is really more -- what we see in an election, it's very rare -- I know you talked about this -- about how many close races there are. So we're going to go through and we're going to talk about what if Georgia does this and Kansas does that, and the reality is, they usually all go one way. So it's very rare to find them splitting just simply down the middle and doing all this crazy math to figure out who's doing what.

TAPPER: How confident are Republicans out there, Kevin?

KEVIN MADDEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Very confident. I think there is a recognition right now that the overall national environment has really tended to favor Republicans, that the president's disapproval ratings across the country are having a tremendous drag on his party and candidates in his party. But also, I think many Republicans feel very good that we went out and got the right kind of candidates, got very quality candidates.

And in many of these races, particularly the ones, for example, in Iowa and Colorado, where I think some of these candidates have done the best, they've personalized and localized those races in a way that's really put them at an advantage. So Republicans are feeling very confident.

I don't think anybody feels like there's going to be a giant wave. We'll probably know when we see some of these numbers come in in North Carolina and New Hampshire. But Republicans feel exceedingly confident we're going to have the -- the Senate will flip our way.

TAPPER: Stephanie, weird moment over the weekend when Senator Tom Harkin was trying to make the case for the Democrat Bruce Braley and said about Joni Ernst, the Republican, I don't care if she's as likable as Mr. Rodgers or prettier than Taylor Swift, like what she represents is what Iowans represent. And Joni Ernst jumped on that about sexist et cetera. But he obviously seemed to be frustrated. Regardless of whether or not the comment was offensive, what Harkin was trying to express, is he's obviously very frustrated about the fact that Joni Ernst is a lot more likable than Bruce Braley, and it's having a huge impact on that race.

STEPHANIE CUTTER, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It is having a huge impact. And I think what's frustrating Senator Harkin is that there's not a lot to actually like about Joni Ernst when you look at her record. And the case that Congressman Braley has been making since the beginning is, this might be a good message that she's sending, but look beneath the message. Her policies are what matter, and they are not consistent with Iowa values. So I think that Congressman Braley has been frustrated by that. Senator Harkin has been frustrated by that. Even if you look in the Des Moines Register poll over the weekend that showed Joni Ernst very much ahead, and the question about who is more substantive or policies could move the state forward, it was Bruce Braley. Yet they're still voting for her.

TAPPER: No offense, but this all sounds like Walter Mondale complaining about Ronald Reagan.

CUTTER: I'm not --

(CROSSTALK)

CUTTER: I'm not with the Braley campaign, but you asked me whether he was frustrated. Yes, it's frustrating to be a candidate in that race and to see somebody whose agenda is actually, you know, not being presented correctly or listened to correctly, yet ahead.

MADDEN: This was one of those races where -- this is another Democrat strategist pointed this out, who is a friend of mine. He said this is one of those cases where it's great when you make your first impression, and the first impression that Joni Ernst made with that ad, which is probably the best ad of the cycle on spending reform, what she was going to do in Washington, that helped her align herself with those voters in Iowa.

TAPPER: Certainly the first time I've ever heard the word "castrate" in an ad, in a good way.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That just rolls off your tongue, right?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Unless you're a pig, it's not a good ad.

(LAUGHTER)

MADDEN: And then you align that with the contrast that she made against Bruce Braley, who Bruce Braley -- one of his first introductions to Iowa voters was that he said, making remarks about farmers and also about Chuck Grassley, that was -- he never really recovered from that.

CUTTER: Absolutely. She's run a good race.

TAPPER: This is the difference between the Republicans -- a lot of people thought Republicans might win two years ago. But they ran a lot of bad races.

WALTER: In 2010, the same thing, where they had great opportunities and then really terrible candidates helped flush those hopes down the drain.

I think Kevin's right. Not only were they better candidates than in 2010, but they were able to take advantage of the nationalization, but also the localization of that race. Joni Ernst looks like an Iowan. Cory Gardner fits that state.

TAPPER: In Colorado. WALTER: In Colorado. They're not just riding on an anti-Obama wave.

CUTTER: Those are two races, though -- and a whole slew of competitive races where they're not just running on an anti-Obama theme. Everybody else, you say the sky is blue, I say Obama. That's how these races are being run. And I think that--

MADDEN: He's in the 30s in some of those races.

TAPPER: Kevin Madden, Amy Walter, Stephanie Cutter, thank you so much. We'll see you on election day.

When we come back, it's a dirty move and several candidates are doing it, making false accusations against their opponents in TV ads running over and over and over again. Are voters buying the lies?

Plus, passionate supporters could sway the outcome in key states, and it's not the candidates driving them to the polls, it's other things on the ballot.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. More in politics now, you can't turn on a TV or a radio these days without hearing a narrator often with a deep baritone telling you all the reasons why casting vote for one particular candidate over another could potentially destroy all that is good and righteous on God's green earth.

While we've gotten pretty used to negative ads in the heat of an election season, what never gets old at least to me is just how far these ads are willing to go to shock voters and in some cases just a flat-out lying to them.

Joining me now to discuss the worst of the worst is "The Washington Post" fact checker, Glenn Kessler along with CNN chief congressional correspondent, Dana Bash.

Glenn, let's start with the liars. You've immersed yourself deep in the muck and picked out the most fact-challenged ads in the 2014 midterms. People can go in your website and see all of them. We're going to do three of them. Let's start with this one from the NRA against Louisiana Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: It happens like that. The police can't get there in time. How you defend yourself is up to you. It's your choice. But Mary Landrieu voted to take away your gun rights.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: First of all, that is terrifying, but what makes this fact challenged?

GLENN KESSLER, "WASHINGTON POST" FACT CHECKER COLUMNIST: The problem is the votes that they talk about -- the one for enhanced background checks would have done nothing to prevent the woman in this ad from buying a gun, even on short notice.

TAPPER: And she was a criminal.

KESSLER: Well, yes, I guess true. The NRA's lawyers admitted that to me that this was not necessarily a good example to put out there. But they did anyway.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And just production-wise, the way they made it look like an ADT Security ad, it takes a while for you to realize you're not watching a security ad that you're watching a political ad.

TAPPER: Here's the second place for biggest whopper.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Michelle Nunn's own plans that she funded organizations linked to terrorists. She's for amnesty while terrorism experts say our border breakdown could provide an entry for groups like ISIS.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Glenn, fact check, what's wrong with that?

KESSLER: Well, the big problem is they were claiming that her organization funded a terrorist group and there was absolutely nothing to do with that.

TAPPER: It's the points of life -- George H.W. Bush's group?

KESSLER: Right. What they did is they pulled out -- she'd had a campaign plan which someone leaked that said that this would be a bogus attack Republicans could make against her. So they cited that report as saying, her own plan says she funded terrorism.

And it was just a pass-through through an eBay thing. There was one group with the word Islamic in it. But a pretty legitimate group that has nothing to do --

TAPPER: So just a big lie, and finally, here is the ultimate four Pinocchio ad of the 2014 midterms. This one is from Democratic Alison Lundergan Grimes. She's challenging Republican Mitch McConnell in Kentucky's very heated Senate race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALISON LUNDERGAN GRIMES, KENTUCKY SENATE CANDIDATE: This is the big Sandy Power Plant in Luisa, Kentucky. They're shutting down half the plant and laying off the workers because Mitch McConnell didn't fight to reduce coal emissions instead Mitch and his wife pocketed $600,000 from enemies of coal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: I read this when you wrote it. It's crazy talk.

KESSLER: Right. It's completely false on every level. I'd already rated this $600,000 thing as four Pinocchio bad. And yet she went onto the camera and said it herself, once again, which says something about her credibility. I will note that with this ad, they never released it publicly. They just snuck it on West Virginia TV stations, hoping to get it to coal country.

TAPPER: All right, Dana, let's do this quickly, we've singled out some ads that are shockers, not necessarily false but just like stunning in some ways. Here's third place for most memorable political ad from the Florida Republican Party against Charlie Crist, the Democratic candidate in the governor's race.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You've taken about $90,000 from various strip club owners, including $40,000 from a gentleman who owns the cheetah of Hollandale Beach.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Dana.

BASH: So it's one thing to say you've taken money from strip club owners. You know, you may or may not agree with that, but then the ad goes on to basically say that because of that, he is responsible for people who are sexually assaulted, which is like, what? I mean, how do you get from "A" to "B"? It's really unclear.

TAPPER: Second place for biggest shocker is from the Republican candidate in California's governor's race. Let's check it out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NEIL KASHKARI: I'm Neil Kashkari. I'm running for governor because every kid in every neighborhood deserves a good education.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: What the --

BASH: So you think that he's running because every kid in every neighborhood deserves a lifeguard. It has nothing to do with swimming or anything --

TAPPER: It's a horrific metaphor.

BASH: It is and as parents it actually makes --

TAPPER: It's awful to watch. Here's the last one for the biggest shocking -- most shocking ad. Democrat Wendy Davis going after her Republican opponent in the Texas governor's race, Greg Abbott.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ANNOUNCER: A tree fell on Greg Abbott. He sued and got millions. Since then, he's spent his career working against other victims. Abbott argued a woman whose leg was amputated was not disabled because she had an artificial limb.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: It's weird. Greg Abbott is obviously in a wheelchair because of that horrific accident. They're trying to make the case that he's cold to victims. But why bring up his own accident?

BASH: Because they're saying that he benefited -- by the way, I'm not defending this. That he benefited from a justice system that allowed him to get millions of dollars because of his accident, yet he is not allowing other victims to get the same. But you're right, why do it? The question is, is it too soon? It's always too soon for that.

TAPPER: I need to shower after this segment. Glenn Kessler, Dana Bash, thank you so much for joining us.

Coming up next, it's not just candidates on the ballots tomorrow, there's also marijuana, minimum wage, even bears. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. More now on our politics lead. Guns and marijuana and bears, my, voters heading to the polls tomorrow will decide not only who has the power in Washington, D.C., but also who has the weed, or at least whether recreational marijuana use will be legal here in Washington.

Ballot initiatives, measures, referendums, they were presented to voters all over the country. Measure one in Alabama, for instance, aims to ban the state of Alabama from imposing Sharia or Islamic law because there's apparently a real risk that could happen in Alabama. Some of these measures are serious, others less so, but regardless, they can all impact your life.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER (voice-over): In one state, the election might all come down to bears. That's right, bears. Question one on the ballot in Maine asks, do you want to ban the use of bait, dogs or traps in bear hunting, with some exceptions for, say, public safety?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Don't feed the bears!

TAPPER: Animal rights groups say the 7 million pounds of junk food like jelly donuts used to bait bears has increased the bear population. Their ads show images of bears being unfairly trapped and killed, they say.

ANNOUNCER: The only way to stop this cruelty is to vote yes on question one.

TAPPER: But hunting and wildlife groups say bear baiting helps with tourism and it helps keep the population of bears down.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Maine's bear biologists and game wardens strongly oppose question one.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a serious threat to public safety.

TAPPER: And this issue could drive hunters to the polls, providing a boost for conservative candidates. That's barely the only measure that might swing on election one way or another. Voters in 41 states plus Washington, D.C. must also approve or reject 146 ballot measures on some of the most hot button issues of the day.

In Washington State, a background check for all gun sales. In Colorado, an amendment defining personhood has starting the moment of conception. In five states, there's a minimum wage increase on the ballot that could drive liberal voters to the polls.

There's also a lot of attention out there at getting voters' buzz on. More than half the counties in Arkansas are dry unless issue four passes in which case, cheers. And then there's pot. Pass the referendum on the left-hand side. Voters in Alaska and Oregon will decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana use.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Reading is really sexy, but you know what else is sexy? Taxing marijuana and using the revenue for education.

TAPPER: The question in the sunshine state of Florida is whether to legalize the use of medical marijuana. The chief sponsor of the initiative is none other than the law partner of the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist.

Some believe that is an effort to drive turnout for Crist in a close contest with his successor, Republican Governor Rick Scott. A literal horse race in Nebraska, one of many states where voters can roll the dice on whether to allow more gambling. A ballot measure would permit betting on previously recorded horse

races. These initiatives can truly shape your world. The 2004 Ohio referendum against same-sex marriage brought conservatives to the polls to vote for George W. Bush against John Kerry and that victory was pivotal.

So, are these ballot initiatives important? Well, does a bear get shot in the woods?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: In many cases, these initiatives have brought in millions of dollars, whether they get people turning out at the polls, we will soon find out. That's it for me. I'm Jake Tapper. I turn you over to Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM" right now -- Wolf.