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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Stocks Fall; Flu Season; AirAsia Crash Investigation; Boston Marathon Bombing Trial Begins; Republicans to Vote for Leadership Tomorrow

Aired January 05, 2015 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Gas prices have been dropping for 100 straight days. But it turns out what is good for your wallet may not be so sweet for your retirement savings.

I'm Jake Tapper. This is THE LEAD.

Breaking news in the money lead: stocks tanking on the first full week of 2015, as oil prices fall below the $50-a-barrel marker for the first time this decade. Could too much of this good thing cause a crash?

The world lead, new evidence that the missing AirAsia plane that's likely at the bottom of the sea should not have taken off that day. What has the Indonesian government so upset with the airline?

And the national lead, from bad to worse, brand-new numbers showing that the flu epidemic which has been especially deadly for children is growing as kids go back to school. And those flu shots may not be doing enough to stop it.

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Jake Tapper.

We are going to begin with the breaking news on the money lead. You can hear the bell there. You know all that extra cash that you have been saving at the gas pump? Well, it turns out that could be at the expense of your 401(k). The markets just closed after a brutal day where cheap oil prices sent the Dow into a freefall, plummeting more than 320 points.

Experts say the worst could be yet to come, thanks to oil prices predicted to dip even lower, as well as that shaky European economy.

Let's go live to CNN business correspondent Alison Kosik in New

York. Alison, was this just only a matter of time before this happened?

ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, most investors that you ask say, you know what? The market is due for a correction. It's been more than three years since you have seen the market actually have a true 10 percent correction from a recent high.

The market did get hit in September and October. But it's interesting because each time the market got hit, you saw investors coming in to buy. Now, keep in mind, I'm not saying what's happening today is a correction because what happened today was actually on what's considered low volume, meaning there weren't many traders in the game.

So it means that any move that they would make would be exaggerated. But one of the catalysts for this sell-off, definitely oil prices. Oil prices continuing in that freefall, closing below $50 a barrel for the first time since 2009 in April.

And for Wall Street, it's unsettling to see oil prices really tank, to be in this freefall, especially when there's no sense of a bottom. But I spoke with one oil analyst, Tom Kloza, who says it's kind of like the New York Mets. It's a bottoming process -- Jake.

TAPPER: Interesting. Obviously, the silver lining in all this is the low gas prices. How low can they go? It's already under $2 in some places.

KOSIK: The good news is oil analysts who I talked to said what you see on the street in those gas stations is actually a tape delay of what you're seeing in the markets. That means expect gas prices to go even lower. Here's an example.

The average price you see right now, $2.20 a gallon, he told me he expects by Friday to see that average price drop to $2.10 a gallon. Keep in mind, that's down from that $3.68 from the summer peak. He does say, though, he is predicting that you will see that oil bottom out by the end of January, because what winds up happening is refineries start to produce this spring sort of formula of gas.

Then you wind up seeing oil prices go higher. But he does say expect to see gas prices stay in the twos instead of the threes for the rest of the year -- Jake.

TAPPER: Alison Kosik, thank you so much.

Turning now to our world lead, the shock of the air disaster that claimed the lives of 162 people, including 18 children, well, that shock is now giving way to disturbing questions about whether that plane should have been in the air that day at all.

Crews desperately have been trying to recover the bodies of victims and wreckage from AirAsia Flight 8501. It's been a burdensome nine- day search, as you know, hampered by awful weather conditions from high winds to heavy rainfall conditions, similar to what the plane might have experienced when it went down last Sunday on its way from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore.

And now the new questions. For starters, the AirAsia flight only had a permit to fly that particular route on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Flight 8501 took off, of course, on Sunday. Then there's the issue of weather. According to the Indonesian government, AirAsia allowed the flight's captain and co-pilot to be the ones researching the flying conditions before taking off.

That is unusual because, with most other airlines, it's up to the carrier to brief the pilots on weather conditions and up to the carrier to provide detailed information on things like route forecasts and flight plans and fuel estimates. Indonesia's Transportation Ministry has now ordered all pilots to give pilots up-to-date weather conditions prior to departure

Let's bring in CNN aviation correspondent Rene Marsh.

Rene, we have been talking for a few days now about whether the demand for air travel in this booming part of the world has progressed beyond the safety, the ability of governments to regulate all this air travel.

RENE MARSH, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, when you're flying in this part of the world, prone to severe weather, it really is like flying blind if the pilots don't have sufficient weather information prior to takeoff.

While we don't know exactly what caused the crash, some are beginning to question whether Indonesia's troubling air safety record could have been a contributing factor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARSH (voice-over): Three more bodies brought to land. Nearly a quarter of those who were on board AirAsia 8501 have been recovered, some still wearing seat belts. Also recovered from the Java Sea, airplane seats, personal effects and what looks like part of a food cart.

YAYAN SOFYAN, INDONESIAN NAVY (through translator): We retrieved during our one-week operation several objects which were mostly parts of the AirAsia plane.

MARSH: The main body of the plane and the critical flight recorders still on the seafloor; 16-foot waves and muddy conditions underwater mean zero visibility. More than 50 vessels and helicopters and more than 80 deep divers are dedicated to the search. China has sent experts and portable sonar equipment. The U.S. Navy ship USS Sampson is helping recover debris, while the USS Fort Worth deployed sonar equipment.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To give us an image on the sea bottom. We can find things as small as a golf ball, or of course something as big as an airplane.

MARSH: While the investigation into what caused the crash is under way, another investigation is taking form. Should aviation authorities have allowed Flight 8501 to take off despite massive thunderstorms?

MICHAEL GOLDFARB, FORMER FAA CHIEF OF STAFF: Thunderstorms in the United States, you wouldn't take off. You would be on a ground hold at La Guardia or Kennedy.

MARSH: Today, reports the doomed airline's pilots may not have received extensive weather data prior to takeoff. A top Indonesian aviation official tells CNN it's a matter under investigation and insists the standard is for pilots to be briefed in advance on the weather.

And concern AirAsia was not approved to fly the route from Surabaya to Singapore on the day it went missing, highlighting Indonesia's significant safety problems with controlling its airspace. Experts say booming air traffic has made Indonesia the world's busiest airspace with the weakest safety infrastructure.

GOLDFARB: Indonesia would be on a watch list from an FAA standpoint, one of 10 nations where there are serious safety and regulatory oversight problems.

MARSH: Indonesian officials are now investigating why Flight 8501 was allowed to take off without the proper permission.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MARSH: A top aviation official tells CNN he hopes the investigation into whether Indonesian authorities essentially dropped the ball, he says it should be complete in another one to two weeks. Now, if the pilots did not receive adequate pre-flight weather reports, that opens a whole new round of questions. Why did the pilots fly without it? Was there this pressure for them to fly to stay on schedule?

Remember, we have talked about this being a really busy part of the world when we talk about air travel. So it remains to be seen. If they didn't have that information, crucial information, why did they fly anyway?

TAPPER: Big questions. Rene Marsh, thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Searching for the plane's black boxes has been like trying to find a set of lost keys in a football stadium blindfolded. The murky waters of the Java Sea have made it impossible for divers to see what is right in front of them and add to that the rough weather, huge waves, ocean garbage, you have got a recipe for a very long, laborious search effort.

CNN's David Molko is live in Surabaya, Indonesia.

David, bad weather forced crews to call off the search earlier. What's the forecast for the next search?

DAVID MOLKO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jake, that's right, about an hour to first light here in Surabaya. The call to prayer sounding around the city.

Let's head out to the search zone. As you mentioned, weather creating some difficulties. There was a lot of news out of there, news about bodies recovered, extra debris, some airline seats, not the news that search officials were looking for, which was of course that they had found the main wreckage.

Jake, the weather here is more in control than anything else. The good news, the forecast expected to improve or be about the same for the next couple of days. It turns out that the early morning hours, just about an hour from now, are the calmest on the Java Sea. The problem, we're in monsoon season. So things can change in the afternoon. You get a thunderstorm whipping up and the seas get choppy.

Again, below the surface, it's a visibility issue. Divers down for the second day couldn't even see their hands in front of their faces. Jake, they're going to try it all over again for the third day in a row, try and get a closer look at those five objects on the seafloor and see if they can confirm whether or not they are the wreckage of 8501 -- Jake.

TAPPER: And, Dave, tell me more about the plan to take family members out to the search area.

MOLKO: Yes, Jake, they are offering to take the families out into the search zone, give them a closer look at what's happening out there. It would involve putting them on a plane, then on a boat out into the Java Sea, perhaps a chance to lay flowers, offer up some prayers.

Families who have been spending their days behind me here at the crisis center, police headquarters and the police hospital, mixed reaction. Some saying they're happy to take them up on that, others saying, I would rather wait here for news. One family member in particular, he had four relatives on board, including two young grandkids. He says, if this goes into the third week and there's no news, then maybe I will want to head out there, too.

The fact that families are already thinking about the third week of the search when it's only Tuesday certainly doesn't bode well. That sort of suggests that expectations of what may happen this week not so good. The bottom line, Jake, searching is slow going, it's slow progress; 149 families still don't have answers, Jake.

TAPPER: David Molko in Surabaya, Indonesia, thank you so much.

In our national lead today, he is the only suspect to be charged in the Boston Marathon terrorist attack, and today his trial begins. With potential new evidence come more questions, such as, did Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and his brother, Tamerlan, really, definitely act alone? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

Our national lead now: the terror trial in Boston, jury selection is under way in the case of the United States of America versus Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, accused along with his dead brother, Tamerlan, of detonating two bombs at the end of the Boston marathon. Four people were killed in the bombing and the manhunt, more than 160 wounded. Tamerlan Tsarnaev was killed in a shootout with police, during which his younger brother Dzhokhar ran over him. Dzhokhar was later found hiding in a boat in a backyard in suburban Boston. He's now facing 30 charges, including using a weapon of mass destruction.

CNN national correspondent Deborah Feyerick has been in court today. She's live in Boston with all the latest -- Deb.

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jake, we can tell you 400 people, 400 men and women came today to be considered as prospective jurors. The interesting thing, whether or not they are chosen, whether or not they are chosen to serve four months of this trial, they can all say they were in the same room with the alleged bomber himself, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. He sat facing all of them, looking apparently very nonchalant.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FEYERICK (voice-over): Dzhokhar Tsarnaev in custody now for 626 days, most of it in isolation, got his first chance to see some of the potential jurors who will decide his fate. It was four days after the Boston marathon bombing when the bloodied 19-year-old discovered hiding in a boat surrendered to an army of police and federal agents who had been hunting him.

JULIETTE KAYYEM, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: They have a very strong guilty case against him. What everyone is focusing on is he going to get the death penalty or not.

FEYERICK: The judges kept what appears to be a mountain of evidence and an extensive witness list under seal. Prosecutors say Dzhokhar and his older brother, Tamerlan, targeted the Boston marathon using homemade pressure cooker bombs filled with nails and pellets in order to cause maximum damage.

New videos are expected to show Dzhokhar leaving the second backpack at the blast side before calmly walking away empty-handed. And the note he allegedly scrawled inside the boat, blaming America for Muslim deaths, is likely to undercut his lawyer's argument that Dzhokhar was a troubled young man acting under his older brother's influence.

KAYYEM: A lot of these discussions about was he impressionable or was he evil in and of itself really have nothing to do with guilt or innocence. They're going to have to do with whether he spends the rest of his life in jail or the death penalty.

FEYERICK: Twelve hundred potential jurors are scheduled to fill in a lengthy questionnaire, including whether they would consider the death penalty in the event of a guilty verdict. Twelve will be chosen, along with six alternates.

Tsarnaev's two sisters are likely to be in court. They visited him in prison several times. And his parents, soon after his capture, talked to him by phone. Records show he told him, quote, "They are giving me rice and chicken now, everything's fine. Everything is good. Please don't say anything."

Prosecutors have said Tsarnaev was banned from praying with other inmates, saying he wanted to incite them to engage in jihad. He's been allowed out of his cell to meet with lawyers or spent short periods of time in an outdoor enclosure, according to court documents. Tsarnaev became eligible for the death penalty in part because prosecutors believe he's shown no remorse. (END VIDEOTAPE)

FEYERICK: And just imagine a large glass-enclosed jury room. You had about 150 to 200 jurors there sitting there. Facing them was Dzhokhar Tsarnaev flanked by his lawyers. He paid attention to what the judge was saying but he sat was sort of slouched in his chair, he was wearing a dark sweater, pressed khaki pants. And when he walked in and out, he sort of swung his arms, they were not shackled. He had very long strides, a distinctive walk but he was looking at the jurors, looking at the judge.

The judge basically saying to everyone, this is your civic duty. So, answer the 100 questions as best you can. He even invoked the names of the colonists to say, this is your responsibility to sit here and to listen to the evidence that the prosecutors will present against this man who's been accused in these bombings -- Jake.

TAPPER: Deb Feyerick, reporting from Boston, thanks so much.

I want to take one moment here just to recite the names of the four who were killed since we are mentioning the names of the terrorists so many times during this segment.

The victims, of course, were Krystle Campbell, Lu Lingzi, Martin Richard, and Officer Sean Collier. I'm sure their families and friends are still mourning their deaths very much.

And there are still so many lingering questions about that terrorist attack.

Bob Baer is a CNN national security analyst and former CIA operative.

Also joining us from Boston is Brad Bailey. He's a former federal prosecutor.

Gentlemen, thank you both for talking with us today.

Bob, you heard Deb report that according to his sources. Dzhokhar is still spouting jihadist views. He shows no remorse. Does that surprise you at all?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: No, not at all. He sounded like a believer from the moment he was arrested. He was indoctrinated by his brother perhaps in a mosque in Boston. It doesn't surprise me at all.

I don't think he went through this and carried this out just on the influence of brother. It just doesn't make sense. So, I think he's a believer, for sure.

TAPPER: Brad, prosecutors were trying to negotiate a plea deal with Tsarnaev but talks fell apart when the government refused to take the death penalty off the table. How common is it for the government to take the death penalty off a table in exchange for a guilty plea in a case like this? BRAD BAILEY, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Well, in a case like this,

this is a unique case, Jake. When often in death cases, you do try to bargain away the death penalty in exchange for life without the possibility of parole. Here, given the nature of the crime, the number of the victims, the fact that it's a terror case, the 8-year- old victim who was killed, all those factors are the types of things that if there's going to be any type of deal, it's simply going to be that Tsarnaev might not contest the guilt phase and might instead just focus on the penalty phase in an effort of just putting the sole question of life or death in a non-death penalty state.

TAPPER: Let me ask you, Brad, how likely is it do you think that Dzhokhar will be sentenced to death?

BAILEY: Well, you know, there's a whole process involved. And the first thing that has to happen is they have to make sure they have what we call a death qualified jury. That means all 12 of those jurors and all six of those alternates have to make it clear that they would be open to the death penalty, not that they will, in fact, impose it. They'll get bounced off the jury if they say anything like that. But that they'll follow the rules, all the criteria, and that they would be open to it if he's convicted on any of these counts. So, we got a long way to go to get there.

TAPPER: Bob, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and Tamerlan are the only two officially implicated in carrying out this attack. But I've spoken to law enforcement officials who have strong suspicions that the Tsarnaevs may not have acted alone. What do you think?

BAER: Jake, I've heard the same thing from people involved in the investigation, FBI consultants. They didn't act alone, in the sense that they were shown how to make these bombs. Tamerlan probably had some combat training when he went to Dagestan the year before. But the device -- you know, originally, it was said it was downloaded from the Internet, from the "Inspire" article. But it was actually improved upon.

And there's a question whether there was actually somebody in Boston at the time because they never sound a circuit tester in Dzhokhar's apartment or the other apartment. So, I mean, how did they actually make this bomb? And it was fairly sophisticated, the six-second delay and the rest of it.

And, categorically, explosives experts have told me they had some sort of assistance, either in the United States or in Dagestan.

TAPPER: Brad, quickly if you could, are questions about whether the Tsarnaevs could have done this alone, are they relevant at all to the trial?

BAILEY: Well, anytime you can create some sort of reasonable doubt, anything is relevant. But I think at the end of the day, the focus is going to be on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev and whether it's been proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he committed the crimes that he's charged with.

TAPPER: Brad Bailey, Bob Baer, thank you both so much. I appreciate it.

Coming up, he's the Republican leader of the House of Representatives. But now, some members of his own party want him out from his leadership position. Why several conservatives are saying they will vote against John Boehner for another term as the speaker. We'll talk to one of those Republicans, next.

Plus, it turns out Kim Jong-un is not a huge fan of the new U.S. sanctions. North Korea has an angry response to them, coming up next.

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