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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Warren, Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg In Top Tier Of New Iowa Poll; Buttigieg Campaign Hopes He Can Emulate Obama Success; Warren Releases New $20.5 Trillion Plan To Fund "Medicare For All" In Hopes Of Silencing Dem Rivals; Biden Camp: Warren's Health Care Plan Is "Mathematical Gymnastics"; U.S. Troops Guarding Syrian Oil Could Confront Russian Forces; Russia Expanding Military And Economic Influence Across The Globe. Aired 4:30-5p ET

Aired November 01, 2019 - 16:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:30:00] BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: What would happen there if let's say he had a strong performance in Iowa?

BILL KRISTOL, DIRECTOR, DEFENDING DEMOCRACY TOGETHER: I think they would take a look at him. I think most of them don't have -- no idea who he is. I don't think they have anything against him particularly, he just not been fighting for their -- the causes they care about, the way Biden has for decades, and to some degree Warren and Sanders they would have some knowledge of some issues that they've been prominent on.

So I think the key for Buttigieg is Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. He needs to be top three. If he were top two, that would be even better. If he won, that would be even better. And then it can really take off. I mean, these are extremely dynamic.

The primary process would have a multi-candidate field narrowing to a small field. And we've seen this many times. That's when it's most dynamic. That's when Iowa chooses a slingshot and Gary Hart goes from being second in Iowa to winning New Hampshire almost beating Mondale who was a prohibitor favorite that year.

So, it went to John Glenn who is an early favorite. He totally collapsed. So that could be a sort of analogy to Biden and Warren.

KEILAR: Well, and --

KRISTOL: So I take Buttigieg seriously. I do not believe he's going to run a good race but, of course, he's not really going to win. He could win.

KEILAR: Next, we will talk about another frontrunner who is dodged a question for weeks now. Elizabeth Warren showing everyone how she is going to pay for Medicare for All. Will you be on the hook for it?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:35:48] KEILAR: In our 2020 lead after months of being hit for not really having a way to pay for her Medicare for All plan, Elizabeth Warren today said she has it figured out. But does the math really add up. MJ Lee now on whether today's rollout will quiet Warren's critics.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That's left behind. It's right there in the plan. And it's fully paid for.

MJ LEE, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Elizabeth Warren finally releasing her own plan on how to pay for Medicare for All. The presidential candidate answering one question she's repeatedly dodged for weeks.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Will you raise taxes on the middle class for pay -- to pay for it, yes or no?

WARREN: Costs will go up for the wealthy and for big corporations. And for hardworking middle class families, costs will go down.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We heard it tonight a yes or no question that didn't get a yes or no answer.

LEE: Now for the first time, Warren saying her answer is, no.

WARREN: I have a plan that shows how we can have Medicare for All without raising taxes one cent on middle class families.

LEE: Her price tag, $20.5 trillion of new federal spending over 10 years. The senator laying out the math saying nearly half would come from continued employer contributions. The rest, taxes on additional take home pay coming from employees no longer having to pay health insurance premiums, cracking down on tax evasion and fraud, taxing financial companies and large corporations.

She's also beefing up her signature wealth tax under the new plan. Americans would now pay 6 cents for every $1 of wealth over $1 billion rather than 3 cents. Her Democratic rivals quickly piling on. Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign saying in a statement, her proposal dramatically understates its cost, overstates its savings, inflates the revenue, and pretends that an employer payroll tax increase is something else.

Warren's new pledge to not raise taxes on the middle class are contrast from Bernie Sanders, the author of Medicare for All.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But I do think it is appropriate to acknowledge that taxes will go up.

LEE: Warren also saying she'll soon release another plan detailing the transition to Medicare for All, leaving open the possibility of more divergence from Sanders' bill. Ask today whether she's discussed her new plan with Sanders.

WARREN: I've called him but he hasn't returned my call yet.

(END VIDEOTAPE) LEE: Now, her critics have quickly pounced on this saying, this plan is not realistic, the math can't possibly add up. One of the things they're pointing to is the fact that Senator Warren would like to get comprehensive immigration reform done as a way of paying for Medicare for All. This of course is something that has eluded Washington for many years, Brianna.

KEILAR: Yes, it's almost a unicorn in Washington. MJ Lee, thank you so much.

OK. Let's talk about this Jen. The Biden camp responded to Warren's plan, they called it double speak. They called it slight of hand. They called it mathematical gymnastics. Is this realistic, her plan to pay for this?

JEN PSAKI, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, you know, she's the candidate who has run effectively as the one with plans for everything. And I will give credit where credit is due which is to her communications team because that was brilliant. But this is funny money. And it's not, you know, immigration reform passing no more OCO spending. Lots of cuts --

KEILAR: Explain OCO spending.

PSAKI: Like overseas spending.

KRISTOL: Contingency Operations.

PSAKI: Right, exactly. So, overseas spending like through the military needs. I mean, these are the things that are very difficult to pull off and never mind pull them off to pay for health care plan.

KEILAR: Altogether for some time.

PSAKI: The reality though is here. She may have checked the box for Democratic primary voters, which is essentially what she needed to do. And ultimately if you look to a year from now, she's the nominee if someone else is the nominee, I will bet they're not going to run on Medicare for All. I will bet they will run against Donald Trump trying to take away coverage for pre-existing conditions and takeaway access to health care.

So, you know, on the political front, she may have checked the box she needed --

KEILAR: Because that's what she needs to do, is to sell voters on this with the realization that is Medicare for All really ever going to pass Congress if she's elected? Probably not, right?

KRISTOL: I think it's not a Medicare for All problem, but it is partly because people are nervous about losing health insurance, it's just a big government liberal spending problem.

[16:40:01] Maybe that doesn't hurt in the Democratic primary, though maybe some Democratic primary voters don't want the government taking all of our money even -- I mean, so the focus on whether it could be paid for seems that it's a good idea for the government to take an extra $20 trillion or $30 trillion out of the rest of the economy to and then decide how to spend it. And I think among --

(CROSSTALK)

CHRIS CILLIZZA, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: An independent for insurance (ph).

KRISTOL: Among independent voters in general election. I have been sort of open, really, to the notion that Warren could be OK, could win them over, could defeat Trump, you know, would -- could make herself acceptable to them despite the kind of her reputations being such a strident liberal, but I'm losing a little faith in that, I've got to say.

SEUNG MIN KIM, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And this conversation is why -- I mean, Republicans, even if they're getting a little bit of -- or a lot of heartburn about Trump and Trump's actions, they're really eager for that moment when there is an official Democratic nominee and they're saying, you know, all of the crazy stuff that we've gone through with impeachment or whatnot.

Once we have that Democratic nominee, it's no longer -- 2020 is no longer referendum on Trump (ph), it is a choice between two candidates and we believe that especially with some of the positions that Democrats are espousing, you could make that effective contrast. And even if Warren does not end up being the official nominee, I mean, I'm pretty sure Republicans will continue to kind of use this against whoever the nominee is.

KEILAR: Chris, I want to ask you about this. Something that we're seeing in this "New York Times" Siena College poll that shows these four top -- really four in the top tier in Iowa, Elizabeth Warren 22 percent, Bernie Sanders 19 percent, Buttigieg at 18 percent, Joe Biden at 17 percent.

And I think this is a point -- I think Seung Min made this point earlier, when you look deeper, only 33 percent of these respondents said their mind is made up, 65 percent. So two-thirds of the folks say they could be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate.

CILLIZZA: Yes. I mean, I try to remind myself of this a lot just because of the nature of what we all do for a living is not normal, in lots of ways, but particularly as it relates to ways in which the race feels as though it's been begun.

I mean, we've been at this now for a better part of a year. I mean, Elizabeth Warren got into the race in December of last year. Even in Iowa where I know the cliche goes -- Seung Min is going to speak better of this because she's from Iowa, but even in Iowa, people are not that dialed in, right?

Maybe they're following the Hawkeyes Football Season or the Cyclones Football Season. I mean, other things are happening. So it does not surprise me. Also by the way, almost none of these candidates outside of Tom Steyer and Donald Trump have spent any money on television. So that's a way that the race feels more real to you. I just think we overestimate the extent to which people on a day-by-day basis are following.

KIM: A great illustration of that, I was at a Bernie Sanders last week at my hometown of Iowa City, I happened to ran into a high school friend or a college friend and I said hello. And I ask him, are you feeling the burn? Is Bernie your candidate? He like, I'm testing out the burn. I'm still looking around, still seeing what's out.

KEILAR: Testing out the burn. All right, guys. Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping in as America takes a step back. The power play that is even happening in America's backyard.

[16:45:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: In our "WORLD LEAD," it didn't take long for Vladimir Putin to announced plans to carve out parts of northern Syria after President Trump pulled troops from the region. And now the troops that President Trump left there to protect oilfields could end up in direct confrontation with Russian forces who have quickly filled the power vacuum.

And as CNN's Fred Pleitgen reports, that's just one example of Vladimir Putin flexing his political and military might for strategic gain across the globe.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Great to be with you.

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: President Trump's cozy relations with Vladimir Putin are well documented.

TRUMP: You know what? Putin is fine. He's fine.

PLEITGEN: But while repeatedly calling Russia interference in the 2016 election a hoax, the U.S. President is gifting Putin one foreign policy victory after the next spanning almost the entire globe. In the Middle East, Syria is only the latest case of America stepping back and Russia stepping in. Russian forces now patrolling the northeast of that country after President Trump abandoned America's allies there, the Kurds, forcing them to allow Russia into the area.

TRUMP: We never agreed to protect the Kurds for the rest of their lives.

PLEITGEN: Putin is now the new strong man in the region. Even traditional U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE courting the Kremlin as Putin makes a sales pitch for Russian military equipment instead of American gear.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA (through translator): Political Morocco so this guy, the leadership of Saudi Arabia just needs to make the wise decision just like Iran did when they bought S-300, just like Erdogan when he bought S-400. They will protect any Saudi infrastructure.

PLEITGEN: And while President Trump has shown little interest in Africa, is putting on a diplomatic full-court press with the continent leaders.

PUTIN (through translator): Russia has signed military-technical cooperation agreements with more than 30 countries where we supply a large array of weaponry and hardware.

PLEITGEN: Meanwhile, in Europe, President Trump has been alienating long-standing NATO allies calling America's commitment to their safety into question. And the President held back military aid to Ukraine which is facing a Russian backed insurgency, pressuring Ukraine's president to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and Biden's son leading to Congress's impeachment inquiry. There's no evidence of wrongdoing by the Biden or his son.

[16:50:02]

TRUMP: I'm only interested in corruption. I don't care about politics. I don't care about Biden's politics.

PLEITGEN: Even in Latin America, the same pattern. While U.S. public support for Venezuela's self-declared interim president Juan Guaido seems to have diminished, strong men Nicolas Maduro is still in power as Russia support for him remain steadfast sending a clear message to the world of America in retreat and Vladimir Putin filling the void.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PLEITGEN: And you know, it's remarkable because Vladimir Putin isn't even that popular here in Russia right now because of the bad economic situation and a botched pension reform. So these foreign policy gifts that he keeps getting from President Trump not only make him stronger abroad, but also help keep him in power here in Russia as well, Brianna.

KEILAR: All right, Fred, thank you so much for that report. OK, so you know, one of the arguments the President makes is that these places are thousands of miles away, the U.S. doesn't need to involve itself. And hey, if Russia is going to get involved, so be it. The U.S. will welcome that. What's the effect though, Jen? You know, you're someone who represented the State Department as a spokesperson. What's the effect of giving Russia free rein here?

PSAKI: Well, one, let me just plug the Carnegie Endowment has a project called the rise of global Russia that's been around for two years. And part of what President Putin has been doing is looking for spots in the world where there is a leadership vacuum and an opening to have influence.

So what he's trying to do, I would say, in Africa is there are a number of African nations who can be influencing United Nations. He wants to get those people on his side. He also has reportedly his -- the guy who's to head the IRA is also training more people to do propaganda across Africa. He has kind of mercenaries across Africa. So what he's trying to do without a lot of financial resources, which they don't have, is to spread his influence while the U.S. is looking elsewhere.

CILLIZZA: I mean, look, there's an impact everyone who knows anything about foreign policy tells you that there's an impact when a global power like United States is led by someone who actively says we need to pull back. We don't need to be defending these people. Where were they, you know, in the Peloponnesian War? Whatever. The --

PSAKI: Those are before our time. You got everyone wondering.

CILLIZZA: Yes, yes, good point.

PSAKI: But we got your joke.

CILLIZZA: Thank you. The point being foreign policy like politics abhors a vacuum, right? So if there is space created in Syria, in Africa, if the United States is not playing as active a role, of course, someone like poor will see and try to take opportunity.

KRISTOL: I also say, I was just on a foreign policy panels that happens earlier today, and all the serious people are talking to China. China is the true -- which is true in a sense. It is the -- it's the real global competitor. Russia is poor, don't have much money. It's a sluggish state. But I think we underestimate the damage that Russia can do just by sowing chaos and by supporting authoritarian. We've seen this in Europe.

So it's not a China type competitor, but the world can get a heck of a lot more dangerous if China -- if Russia helps authoritarianism, doesn't mind the spread of weapons of mass destruction and nuclear weapons --

PSAKI: Crushes free press.

KRISTOL: Crushes free press, shows other authoritarians how to do this. So I think Putin is a big problem.

CILLIZZA: By the way, look what they did in our 2016 election.

KRISTOL: Well, that's a good point.

CILLIZZA: I mean, right? Just in terms of showing chaos and doubt.

KIM: And this is one of the reasons why there were so -- I mean, there were many reasons but there was so much pushback from congressional Republicans with the President's decision to pull troops out of Syria earlier this month, or last month, I guess, at this point.

Because I mean, obviously, the Republicans were making it, you know, this could emboldened terrorism in the region. It would break our promise to the Kurdish allies. But they were saying this is going to create a vacuum that would embolden Putin and that's why there was so much criticism. The criticisms so far has died down a little bit, and we're not hearing too much of it. But that was kind of part of the concern that you were seeing from Republicans at the time.

KEILAR: And yet the president is not swayed by any of these arguments that foreign policy experts have made. In fact, it's an interesting to point out, Jen -- and this is according to Washington Post reporting that it was Putin and Hungary's leader who in part helped sour the President on Ukraine. Why is he so susceptible to this kind of message coming from Putin?

PSAKI: I mean, he likes authoritarian thugs. He responds to them. They probably know how to manage him and flatter him. There is an elements whenever you -- whenever any leader of state or even high- level diplomatic officials meeting with another country where they are flattering you and they are trying to kind of get you on good terms. Trump is very susceptible to that. And I think we're seeing that play out.

KRISTOL: Putin seems to have a special -- Putin seems to have special clout with Trump.

PSAKI: Maybe he has a special way in clout with Trump. I mean, what's interesting -- there's a lot of interesting components of the Syria situation, obviously and troubling ones. One of them is that Trump has said this is his way of getting troops out, right, of pulling back our presence. When in reality, what we're seeing is we're going to need more troops in Iraq to cover for the ISIS -- you know, ISIS terrorists who are loose. We're going to need more of its presence. So it's actually doing the opposite of what he said he wanted to do.

[16:55:06]

KEILAR: So what does the Democrats case for impeachment really look like right now? We'll have that ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Tune in this Sunday morning to "STATE OF THE UNION." White House Advisor Kellyanne Conway will join us along with the number three Democrat in the House Congressman James Clyburn, plus 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang. That will be Sunday at 9:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. Eastern.

And you can follow me on Twitter @BRIKEILARCNN. You can tweet the show @THELEADCNN. I'm Brianna Keilar in for Jake Tapper.