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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Biden Tops Trump 51-43 in New CNN Poll; Fauci's Labor Day Warning: Don't Be Part of the Problem. Aired 4-4:30p ET

Aired September 02, 2020 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:00:01]

ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Now, Old Navy says that it's going to go ahead and (AUDIO GAP) an eight-hour workday to any employee who wants to work at the polls. In addition, they can get compensation from their local jurisdictions.

Old Navy is not the only company doing this to make it easier to get out and vote. (AUDIO GAP) companies, Best Buy, Nike, you name it, giving PTO days, paid time off, to get out there and vote on Election Day.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN HOST: I have a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot more of that.

Alison, thank you.

And thank you all for being with me. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

"THE LEAD" starts now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: And welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Pamela Brown, in for Jake Tapper.

And we begin today with breaking news, a brand-new CNN poll on the 2020 presidential race releasing right here on THE LEAD, 62 days out from election day.

The poll shows, among registered voters, 51 percent back Joe Biden for president, and 43 percent support President Donald Trump.

CNN political director David Chalian joins me now with more on this breaking.

So, David, this is the first poll since both conventions wrapped up. What's the takeaway here?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: The takeaway is that the race has not changed all that dramatically because of those two weeks of conventions, but we see some small changes.

Take a look at the candidates' favorability, Pam. Take a look pre- convention vs. post-convention for Donald Trump. He was at 43 percent favorable pre-convention. He's now at 42 percent. Compare that to Joe Biden. Joe Biden went up five points in favorability. He was at 47 percent. Then he went to 52 percent.

So, no movement for Donald Trump really, and a slight uptick in favor ability for Joe Biden. Look at some key slices of the electorate in this Biden-Trump matchup.

Biden is crushing the president right now among independents. Look at that, 51 percent for Biden, 37 percent for Trump. That 14-point gap, that's a group Donald Trump won four years ago.

Look at the gender divide in this race, OK? Among women, Joe Biden has a 20-point advantage, 57 percent to 37 percent. Yes, Donald Trump has a slight edge among men, but it's only four points, 48 percent to 44.

So, with a huge advantage among women for Joe Biden, and then playing near even among men, that's a troubling sign for President Trump in his reelection effort.

We see a similar story when we look at race. People of color, they divide 59 percent for Biden, 31 percent for Trump in this poll. That is a huge margin, 28-point advantage there for Joe Biden. Among white voters, it's near even, 49 percent Biden, 47 percent Trump in this poll.

Again, if Joe Biden's running up the score with women and running up the score with people of color, Donald Trump needs to do that with white voters and male voters, but he's not. It's drawing to a near tie there.

And then look at the age factor here, Pam. Look at that bottom row, 65 and older, senior citizens. Joe Biden is winning them by 17 percentage points in this poll 57 to 40. This is not a group that we normally see the democratic presidential candidate running away with like that.

And if you look at the issues we tested, you also see a Biden advantage, on racial inequality, on the coronavirus, on criminal justice, all substantial Biden advantage.

And on the economy, which has been Donald Trump's strong suit all year long, they're basically tied, so that advantage somewhat erased for Donald Trump in these numbers.

BROWN: Yes, what really stuck out to me in looking at these numbers is it's how people view crime, the law and order message from the president, and he's clearly made this a priority. David, how is that resonating right now?

CHALIAN: Yes, these numbers jumped out to me too. We asked voters, how worried are you about the risk of crime in your community?

Only 13 percent say they're very worried and 24 percent somewhat worried. So, more than six and 10 are not too worried or not worried at all. And if you look at how that divides by race, well, it's people of color who actually -- 50 percent say they are worried about the risk of crime in their community, whereas compared to only 30 percent of whites.

And if you look, Pam, at the divide here between Biden voters and Trump voters on this issue, it is fascinating. It's that bottom row there; 39 percent of Biden voters actually are worried about the risk of crime in their community. Only 30 percent of Trump voters.

And look at all the rest of the scores. Are you worried about the risk of coronavirus in your community, the economy in your community, racism? Overwhelmingly, Biden voters are far more worried, Trump voters not that worried. So I'm not sure that the messaging that we heard from Donald Trump throughout the convention into his trip to Kenosha is actually having its desired effect.

At least, we don't see it yet in these numbers.

BROWN: Fascinating look there.

I want to bring in CNN's Dana Bash and CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein into this conversation.

So, Dana, what do these polls tell us 62 days from Election Day? What's your analysis?

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, just as David said, the campaign status has really not changed much, despite the best efforts of both campaigns during their conventions.

[16:05:10]

And that is the important thing to underscore. As David said, this is the first poll taken after the conventions have both ended.

If you look at across the board, as David was saying, whether it's by race, whether it is by age, whether it is by gender, it is Joe Biden's race right now. I mean, he's doing very well.

The one David -- on the question of age, David pointed to the remarkable numbers for senior citizens that Joe Biden has, such an advantage. The only area where Donald Trump has a little advantage is with middle-aged voters. That is striking to me.

And also, on those economic numbers, that has been the one nut that Joe Biden has had a tough time cracking when it comes to the issues that people care about and who they like the best, which of the candidates, and now it is a virtual tie.

Now, this is a national number. That is not how we decide elections in this country. We go state by state and particularly the swing states that we are all looking at, from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania to North Carolina, where the president is today, and many more in between.

But this is such an important data point, especially as we start the final sprint from now until the actual election, even though, remember, voting is going to start really soon.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. BROWN: It will start soon.

And, actually, one of the things that stuck out to me was the age you point out. Older voters seem to be skewing for Biden, and what does that mean for voting, mail-in voting, Ron, vs. going to the polls for Biden and Trump?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, no Democrat has won seniors since Al Gore in 1980 (sic).

I don't think any Democrat has won white voters since 1964 with Lyndon Johnson. And basically having Biden even among white voters is an absolute earthquake. I mean, it reflects not only Trump underperforming somewhat where he was in 2016 among non-college white voters, his core group, but also Biden in this poll and several of the others today coming in north of 55 percent among college-educated white voters, which is something we have never -- we have not seen previously in presidential politics.

The same voters who drove the 2018 Democratic gains in the House and all of those suburban districts are still self on Trump. Well, look, I mean, mail voting, I think the early polling, the early suggestions were that as many as half of all Americans would seek to vote by mail.

I think that number is going down somewhat. If you look at some polling that was out, other polling that was out today, it was an indication that a lot of Democrats are going to request a ballot by mail, but seek to return it in-person.

And I think that is going to be a big piece of what happens. It is a big piece of ready, Pam, in some of the states that do all-mail balloting. A lot of people return it by person, in-person, in Colorado and elsewhere, but I'm guessing that's an increasingly attractive option to Democrats.

Just one last point. This is the first poll after the president's own convention. But, David, I don't think any candidate has been trailing in the first poll after their own convention and come back to win since Harry Truman in 1948.

So, I mean, it is often a high point for a candidate immediately after their own convention, and that just is another data point to keep in mind.

BROWN: So, I want to ask.

And Dana sort of touched on this, David, but the other side, Trump would say, look, look at 2016, the polls had me behind, and then I pulled off a win.

How reliable is the poll in determining how things will actually play out around the election, David?

CHALIAN: Yes. Well, that's not the goal of the poll, right? It's just to give us a snapshot in time right now. And to underscore Diana's point, this is a national poll. The national polls did show Hillary Clinton with an edge in the election in 2016. And guess what? She won the national popular vote by a few million votes, so it's not that the polls didn't capture that.

But to Dana's point about this is a battle for 270 electoral votes, and putting that puzzle together piece by piece is what Donald Trump and Joe Biden are both going to be focused on relentlessly for the duration of this campaign.

So, I think you take this to give you a snapshot. It tells us, after these two weeks of convention, this race did not get altered that much. With Donald Trump's desire to move the conversation, it didn't all of a sudden dramatically find a new resonance in America yet that we're seeing.

Might it find some resonance in Pennsylvania among his base? Maybe. And might that be enough to win the state? Sure. So I don't think we should look at this and say, fait accompli, we know where this election is going.

I do think, this close to the election, after the conventions, it's advantage Joe Biden in this election right now.

BROWN: And you touch on the message resonating. So much of the RNC was about this law and order message. President Trump visited Kenosha yesterday to hammer home the law and order message. Now Biden is set to visit to tomorrow.

[16:10:01]

But given these polls shows most people aren't as worried about crime in their community, Dana, do you think it's a mistake to play into the president's messaging here for Biden?

BASH: I don't think he has a choice. And certainly that's obviously what the Biden campaign feels, that they don't have a choice, that if they leave this unanswered, it will creep into Biden's voters.

And so what Biden is trying to do, and if you look at what he did today, I think it's a clear example of trying to answer what the president is doing, or maybe the best way to say it is not let it go unanswered, but then also trying to push his own agenda and his own message about the coronavirus still being the top issue for voters about leadership and character and everything that goes along with it, and relating it to real people, like parents who can't go to school -- can't send their kids to school and have to decide whether or not they're going to quit their job to stay home with them and so many other issues that fall from that.

The numbers that David showed about that question, worries in your community, Trump versus Biden supporters, the fact that Biden voters say 39 percent are worried about the risk of crime, whereas Trump voters 30 percent, meaning that Biden voters are more worried about the crime than Trump voters, I hear what David is saying that it shows maybe it's not working. But it also perhaps shows why Trump is trying to pull some of those

voters over with those fears, because they know that those are fears among Biden voters.

Very unclear whether or not it'll work.

BROWN: Right. And Biden today, he turned...

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Oh, go ahead.

BROWNSTEIN: I was going to say, yes, I mean, what Biden did today, Pam, I think, is more reflective of where he's going to go, by focusing on the impact of the coronavirus on society and on school opening and so forth.

I mean, these numbers, the 37 percent always saying they are very worried about crime in their community shows how hard it is to shift the public's focus from something that they are experiencing mostly on TV, which is watching protests or watching stories about violent crime, from something they are experiencing in their actual life every day, which is the disruption of the coronavirus.

Now, I said the other day that if you're sitting on your couch watching violence in some city on TV, you may not like what you see, but you like it even less that you see your kids sitting in between you and the television because they're not in school.

And that, I think, is the challenge the president ultimately faces. He's still looking at about 60 percent saying they disagree with him on coronavirus. Hard to change the subject when that's going on.

BROWN: All right, great conversation.

Dana, David, Ron, thank you all.

BASH: Thanks, Pam.

BROWNSTEIN: Sure.

BROWN: Well, breaking news: The government is telling states to get ready for a vaccine -- get this -- as early as next month. We're going to discuss that next.

Plus: Virtual learning is already challenging. Now one of the nation's largest school districts is the target of cyberattacks for the third day in a row.

We will be back.

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BROWN: Turning to our health lead now, warning signs for Labor Day. Dr. Anthony Fauci, among the nation's top health experts, urging Americans to wear a mask, social distance, and avoid crowds. That's something we've been hearing for months. But this after the U.S. saw new coronavirus cases surge on other holiday weekends like Memorial Day and July 4th.

And now, the threat much greater as CNN's Dianne Gallagher reports with a return to school and the flu season upon us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DIANNE GALLAGHER, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ever heard of a twindemic?

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: What I would really like to see is kind of a full court press.

GALLAGHER: Dr. Anthony Fauci warning today the U.S. needs to act quickly before flu season begins to get the coronavirus pandemic under control in order to avoid a double dose of trouble.

FAUCI: So that when you get these cases in the fall, they won't surge up. They'll be controllable.

GALLAGHER: The U.S. jumped back to more than 1,000 new recorded deaths on Tuesday. And with 17 states reporting an uptick in new cases, the national surge has moved from the south to the Midwest, as states in the middle of America like Iowa where masks are not mandated, are seeing massive spikes in positivity rates.

MAYOR BRUCE TEAGUE (D), IOWA CITY, IOWA: We have a 30 percent positivity rate just within a 24-hour period. And so we have some major concerns that we must address.

GALLAGHER: Even as for states suffering through a surge, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst is floating a debunked conspiracy theory that COVID death totals are inflated, and she appeared to suggest, without proof, that doctors are falsifying death records for financial gain.

SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA): I have heard it from health care providers that they do get reimbursed higher amounts if it's a COVID-related illness or death.

GALLAGHER: Ernst later clarified she didn't know for a fact health care providers were doing this. It's something she claims to have heard on the news but gave no specifics. Around 185,000 people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19.

REP. MAXINE WATERS (D-CA): We're in the middle of an epidemic with homelessness.

GALLAGHER: In an extraordinary move, the Trump administration invoking the CDC's powers to temporarily halt most evictions for millions of Americans struggling to pay their rent due to hardship brought on by COVID-19.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's a lot of people, get them (ph) all over.

GALLAGHER: Outbreaks at colleges and universities continue to pop up across the country with more than 25,000 cases reported on campuses in 37 states.

Dr. Fauci today telling students not to go home.

FAUCI: It's the worst thing you could do. Keep them at the university in a place that is sequestered enough from the other students, but don't have them go home because they could be spreading it in their home state.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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GALLAGHER: And, Pamela, just breaking right now, the CDC confirming to CNN that it has told different public health officials, both states and cities, to begin preparing to distribute a coronavirus vaccine as early as late October.

Now, "The New York Times" first reported this information. Essentially, it looks like there are two separate scenarios. The CDC has talked to these state and city public health officials about representing two different vaccines and suggesting that they would begin distributing them to public health officials like first responders, hospital workers, and those who are, of course, most affected by COVID because of other comorbidities, Pamela.

BROWN: The timing of that is very interesting though.

All right. Thank you so much, Dianne Gallagher. We appreciate it.

And here to discuss this, Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard's Global Health Institute.

Great to see you, Dr. Jha. I want to get your reaction to what we just heard from Dianne about the CDC notifying all 50 states about how to prepare for a possible vaccine as soon as late October, early November.

What do we make of this? Is this a normal step in the process?

DR. ASHISH JHA, DIRECTOR, HARVARD GLOBAL HEALTH INSTITUTE: Yeah. So thanks for having me on. First of all it's always good to prepare. I think the notion of preparation isn't a problem. That time line is really aggressive. It's hard to imagine we're going to have the data necessary.

But, unfortunately, when you then tie it in with the words of the FDA commissioner who has said that he may ignore the advice of his own advisory committee and issue an EUA, an emergency use authorization, even without phase three trials being done, it does, I think, worry a lot of us that there is a rush here. We've really got to let the science play out before we make a decision on the vaccine. BROWN: And we also heard Dr. Fauci's warning for Labor Day. This

comes as this new report shows there's been a 17 percent increase in COVID-19 cases in children around the country over the past two weeks. Is there a greater risk for a surge in new cases now that many children return to the classroom and of course flu season is about to start?

JHA: Yeah. So, as you mentioned earlier, we have seen this after major holidays. We saw a big surge after Memorial Day. We saw a spike after July 4th. It really depends on how we handle things and how we do things.

Not suggesting everybody needs to be home on Labor Day. People can get out and enjoy the great outdoors. You can have a small backyard barbecue. It's the large gatherings that really get us into trouble. If we see a big spike, it's going to make the fall and winter much harder, especially as kids come back to school.

BROWN: Yeah, that's what I'm looking ahead to, the fall and the winter and what that could look like. And Dr. Fauci also talked about the worst thing you could do is send college students home after they've been infected. You heard him say that. Instead he says that he should stay on campus and isolate there.

What do you think? Do you think campuses should shut down if students become infected?

JHA: Yes, I've been talking to a lot of colleges and universities around the country, and my advice has been completely consistent with what Dr. Fauci just said. What I've said to people is if you have a large outbreak, you have to plan for keeping students there and helping them get better there. You can't send everybody home, for the exact reasons that you're going to essentially spread the virus. You're going to have students go home, infect their elderly parents or grandparents and that will be a disaster.

So, if colleges can't do that, they have no business bringing students back this fall.

BROWN: All right. I want to turn our attention to Iowa right now, because not only does Iowa have the largest case rate in the nation, but its Senator Joni Ernst suggested that health care providers could be inflating the death toll, essentially committing fraud because she said that they get reimbursed at a higher rate if COVID is tied to it. She later clarified saying she doesn't know for a fact but it's something she heard on the news.

That is misinformation. Have you seen any evidence that COVID deaths are fake or exaggerated and that doctors are getting reimbursed for it?

JHA: You know, this is really troubling to me because the idea that 3 million nurses, 1 million doctors, 4 million of our most, I think, people with incredible integrity, that they have somehow overnight become morally corrupt and are making up numbers to get a little extra cash? First of all, doctors and nurses wouldn't see it in their pockets, it would go to the hospitals. Second, it's not happening. Like this is now what's going on.

We have people dying of COVID and instead of trying to blame doctors and nurses for doing heroic work --

BROWN: Yeah.

JHA: -- I think we've got to focus on the virus and the disease.

BROWN: OK. So let's just break this down a little bit because there is still all this discussion about is the number actually accurate on COVID deaths. And we see it right here on the screen more than 184,000. When a doctor fills out a certificate -- sorry, I just had a baby not long ago, a death certificate. Tell me about that, what is that process in determining this is the cause of death if a person has a secondary or co-morbidity?

JHA: Yeah. This has been very frustrating for all the misinformation about, oh, there are all these people with comorbidities.

[16:25:04]

Look, I filled out a lot of death certificates in my life when I have pronounced people who have died in the hospital, I fill out the forms. And what I do is, of course, I lay out the number one reason, the main reason they die, it might be COVID, it might be pneumonia from COVID.

And then I list all the potential, not a potential, all the other conditions that they have. So if they had high blood pressure at some point, if they had diabetes, high cholesterol, we list them. That doesn't mean that people died of those things. It's still a COVID death.

And to say that those deaths don't matter because somebody had high blood pressure or high cholesterol, I just find that shocking and I find that to be totally an unacceptable way to look at this.

BROWN: Before we let you go, I want to get your reaction to this because the administration announced that it's sending out $5 rapid tests to states starting mid-September. You have been critical of COVID testing in the U.S. so far.

How significant of a development is that?

JHA: Yeah. Look, we got to give the administration praise when they're doing the right stuff and they clearly are here. I'm happy to see it. My only skepticism, we've heard a lot of promises out of the administration so I want to see these tests get out and I want to hear from states that they have it and that they're able to deploy it.

But I think this is good news and I think we should applaud the administration as these tests roll out.

BROWN: All right, Dr. Ashish Jha, thank you. And, by the way, congratulations on starting your tenure as the new dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. We're very happy for you.

JHA: Thank you very much. Thank you.

BROWN: Well, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi caught on camera violating local coronavirus restrictions while getting her hair done. Now the speaker of the House says she was set up.

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