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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Joni Ernst in Tough Reelection Battle; President Trump's Path to Victory?; COVID-19 Pandemic Escalating. Aired 4:30-5p ET

Aired October 19, 2020 - 16:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[16:30:59]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: In our health lead, one of the most ominous warnings we have heard in this pandemic yet. The next six to 12 weeks, we're told, will be the darkest we have seen.

Look at that map, 27 states trending upward with cases, with just 21 states holding steady.

And, as CNN's Nick Watt reports for us now, there are even more signs that this virus spread is not under control.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK WATT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Chicago is now averaging more than 500 new COVID cases every day, the most since late May.

LORI LIGHTFOOT (D), MAYOR OF CHICAGO, ILLINOIS: Make no mistake. We are in the second surge. These numbers are extremely troubling, and are consistent with what we have been seeing across Illinois and really across the country and world.

WATT: In 14 of our states right now, a test positivity rates so high, it tells us the spread is out of control.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NIAID DIRECTOR: You cannot say that we're on the road to essentially getting out of this.

WATT: Cruel irony, Connecticut and New Jersey, with cases climbing, now appear to qualify for the COVID travel restrictions they imposed on other heavily infected states.

ALEX AZAR, U.S. HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY: People are getting tired. The American people have given so much. We're seeing mitigation fatigue right now. And, you know, I just hope that we have so much promise in the weeks and months ahead.

WATT: A vaccine? Well, week after Johnson & Johnson paused its trial following an illness in a volunteer, the company and the FDA won't tell CNN if that volunteer was actually receiving the vaccine or even if this is the first pause.

DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE RESEARCH: We do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike. But when you actually look at the time period for that, the next six

to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic.

WATT: This past month nationally, the average number of new cases a day exploded, up 40 percent.

DR. LARRY BRILLIANT, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: There's nothing to just stop this, the way things are going.

WATT: But there is a silver lining of sorts. The death rate per case has declined.

BRILLIANT: And it's a tribute to modern medicine. We have tools in our arsenal now.

WATT: But we still do not fully understand the long-term impact of this virus on the millions who make it, fatigue, difficulty concentrating, lung issues.

FAUCI: The other thing that we're seeing that's a bit disturbing is that the degree of cardiovascular abnormalities by scans and by other diagnostic tests. It may be insignificant, but I don't know that now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WATT: Now, there are several studies that do show this virus can attack the blood vessels, the lungs and damage the muscles in the heart, which could potentially lead to death further down the line.

Meanwhile, here in California, the governor has just created a scientific safety review work group, and that group will review any vaccine that's been approved by the FDA before it is distributed here in California. As the governor says, "We are going to lead with the science" -- Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Nick, why thank you so much.

Joining us now to discuss is the dean of Brown University School of Public Health, Dr. Ashish Jha.

Dr. Jha, let's just start with the crazy news from the campaign trail, President Trump attacking Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, calling him a disaster, calling him an idiot who's been around for 500 years.

What's your response?

DR. ASHISH JHA, DEAN, BROWN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: Jake, first, thank you for having me on.

Second, this is very sort of disturbing, upsetting to hear the president say this. We're in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century. And Dr. Fauci is America's most respected infectious disease expert for good reason. He is the best there is.

And to attack him personally is very unfortunate, and it is not going to help the country out. I mean, right now, we're heading into a difficult fall and winter. Attacking your best experts is not what you want to be doing if you're president of the United States.

[16:35:09]

TAPPER: No, he's undermining a leading health care voice who the American people, according to polls, overwhelmingly rely on and respect.

And I don't doubt that there are going to be Trump supporters who change their view on Fauci because of that. That could have dire health consequences.

JHA: You know, absolutely.

I mean, Dr. Fauci isn't just somebody that the public respects. All of us in the medical field who study these things look up to him as the best there is. And so undermining him and undermining his message really makes it so much harder to control this virus, so much harder to control this pandemic.

I think the president's doing a great disservice to Dr. Fauci, but really to the country.

TAPPER: Clearly, we're in the middle of a surge.

And how long do you think the case counts will continue to rise?

JHA: Well, we have some ways to go here. It will not naturally top off. It may go on for many weeks or even months, if we don't get our act together.

I do believe -- and I have heard Dr. Osterholm home say the next six to 12 weeks will be among our darkest. It really depends on us. I think there are models of how to turn this around. But we have to really take on -- sort of commit to doing those things. It won't happen naturally.

TAPPER: The state of New Mexico reported a 101 percent increase in COVID hospitalizations this month and a record number of cases three days in a row.

How do we get this back under control in these states that are just demolishing records?

JHA: Yes, basically, what has been happening over the last six weeks, Jake, is, since Labor Day, many of us have been sounding the alarm that we're starting to see cases go up.

And states have been ignoring it, and kind of hoping that it would sort of magically disappear. Well, guess what? It doesn't do that.

And now we're getting into trouble. If you look at one state that has done a fabulous job since Labor Day, it's California. And what they have done is have had a very aggressive policy on increasing testing. They have gone after counties where they have seen case increases and done microtargeted closures.

And California case numbers are actually down since Labor Day, the only major state to do that. So, it tells us we can do this. But it requires leadership and focus and getting out of a denial period moment that a lot of governors and mayors, not just the federal government, is engaged in.

TAPPER: California just announced that that government is going to review any FDA-approved coronavirus vaccine before it's distributed.

Do you think other states will follow suit? And is this smart? Or is it just another roadblock to getting a vaccine into the bloodstream of Americans?

JHA: I believe states have an important role in public health, but I actually don't support state-based reviews of the FDA.

I do think that the scientific process of the FDA so far remains sound. The scientists are still there. And, look, obviously if the administration or somebody runs a political kind of circles around the scientific process, then I will understand states stepping in.

But, at this point, I am hopeful that the safeguards are still there. And I don't think we need to have 50 additional reviews, one for each state. I think we should let the federal process workout.

TAPPER: Forty percent of residents with coronavirus in nursing homes, which have been epicenters for COVID spread, were asymptomatic prior to testing, according to a new study in "The Journal of the American Medical Association" "JAMA."

What does that tell you about the importance of testing?

JHA: Yes, I mean, this is something that many of us have been saying since at least March or April, which is, we need to have an aggressive approach to testing, an aggressive approach to testing asymptomatic individuals, because, while they spread it, some of those people who then get it go on to develop severe complications and deaths.

And the only way to stop this is by aggressive surveillance testing. Part of my frustration for why the administration has downplayed testing and hasn't built up the national infrastructure is, it makes it much harder to protect people.

TAPPER: Testing and contact tracing. They didn't even do contact tracing when they had their own super-spreader event at the White House, the Rose Garden event.

Chris Christie said nobody from the White House called him. And they rejected the offer from the CDC to do contact tracing.

Dr. Ashish Jha, thank you so much. Appreciate it.

The states giving President Trump the biggest advantage, as he eyes a possible path to victory. Does he have one? He sure does.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:44:20]

TAPPER: In our 2020 lead: Today, President Trump told his campaign staff that he feels he has never been in a stronger position than he is right now. And he claims he's confident he will be reelected.

Now, polls suggest that Biden has a clear upper hand, both nationally and in individual battleground states. But in this environment and with the shadow of 2016, we know anything is possible.

So, what are any possible paths to a Trump victory?

CNN's resident forecaster, Harry Enten, joins us now live to discuss.

Harry, what are President Trump's options here?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICAL SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: Right.

So I think, essentially, there are two options when I'm looking at the polling data, right? The first option is essentially that he captures either, one, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or option two is that he carries both Nevada and New Hampshire.

[16:45:07]

Keep in mind, in all these different scenarios, we're assuming that Trump wins all the states he won by at least one point, two points in 2016.

But let's talk about option one first, right? Essentially, he just needs to win either Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, one of those states in yellow on your screen. But here's why that pathway could be difficult. Take a look at the polling in those states right now.

What do we see? We see that former Vice President Joe Biden has a lead of seven to eight points in all those states, and Biden is at 50 percent or greater.

Now, here's option number two. Option number two is either is that he carries both Nevada and New Hampshire. And if he does that, then even if he loses in the Rust Belt battleground states, Trump still gets to 270 electoral votes.

But, again, here's the problem with that potential path. Look at the polling in both Nevada and New Hampshire. Again, you see, former Vice President Joe Biden with leads at least seven points, and he's above 50 percent in both Nevada and New Hampshire at this point.

TAPPER: And, Harry, there are a few states that you're labeling as wild cards right now. Which states are those? And why are they so important?

ENTEN: Right. So, essentially, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, right? In all

the scenarios I just laid out, I gave them to President Trump. But here's what's important to point out. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in all three of those states at this point by anywhere between three and four points.

If former Vice President Joe Biden wins in any of those wild card states, that pathway to Trump really just goes adios, amigos, goodbye very, very quickly.

TAPPER: All right, Harry Enten, thanks.

And a reminder, of course, polling is not election results. If you're out there, whether you're voting for Trump or for Biden, be sure to vote.

A Republican senator running for reelection in the once reliable red tape -- reliably red state of Texas seems to think that his best chance for winning is to distance himself, at least a bit, from President Trump.

In an interview with "The Fort Worth Star-Telegram," Republican Senator John Cornyn describes his relationship with the president as -- quote -- "maybe like a lot of women who get married and think they're going to change their spouse. And that doesn't usually work out very well" -- unquote.

Senator Cornyn also claiming that he privately disagreed with President Trump on using defense money to build the border wall, despite publicly backing the president's decision for months.

Joining us now to discuss this and the future of the Republican Party, longtime Republican strategist Stuart Stevens.

And, Stuart, you're no supporter of President Trump. You have even joined The Lincoln Project, Republicans working to prevent President Trump's reelection. But to see a Republican incumbent in Texas try to distance himself from a sitting Republican president, I have never seen anything like that.

STUART STEVENS, THE LINCOLN PROJECT: Well, that's because it's never happened.

This is kind of personal for me, Jake. I worked in Senator Cornyn's first race for attorney general, his only race for attorney general, and then his first race for the Senate, which was really his only tough race.

The person I knew then was very smart, self -reflective, kind. I kind of don't recognize this guy. I don't understand. He's like a lot of these people under Trump. I really don't know what happened to them. What's most striking to me is, well, two things, like you say.

He's in Texas, and he's trying to walk away from Trump. But the other thing is, he saying that he gave advice to Trump the Trump didn't take, which is sort of an odd argument for a U.S. senator to be making, like, I'm ineffective with a member of my own party as president.

It seems to me to be a lose-lose, and maybe a lose-lose-lose, when you throw in the reference to women. This isn't a confident campaign. I think Senator Cornyn thinks that he's got a tough race. He probably does. It looks that way.

And I think pretty much every Republican is feeling this supposed floor of Trump start to creek and probably fall out.

TAPPER: Yes.

And, look, we don't know what's going to happen. President Trump could very well be reelected. You know, the polls don't suggest that, but we don't know what's going to happen two weeks and one day.

But I just want to ask you, as a longtime Republican, watching a party that has historically had just great presidents, great politicians, Eisenhower, Reagan, and seeing this party embrace conspiracy theorists like QAnon, seeing this party embrace just wild allegations, insane allegations being made about Joe Biden and his family, ones that are -- we won't even touch, what do you think when you look at the GOP?

I mean, obviously, the guy that you worked for, for the last presidential race that you worked on, Mitt Romney, is trying to do what he can to stand against this tide of just lies and indecency, but it seems pretty alone, where he's standing.

STEVENS: Look, I think it's always difficult when you're in the middle of something to realize what's happening, but I don't think we have ever seen in American politics a complete collapse of a party, as the way the Republican Party's collapsed.

[16:50:01]

If somebody held a gun to my head and said, tell me what it is to be a conservative and a Republican in America today, I would say, so shoot me. I have no idea. There's no coherent theory of government, and there's no moral center to it.

You know, in the Reagan era, we said that words could change the world, it would help bring down the Berlin Wall. Now we say about President Trump, well, they're just words, doesn't mean anything.

The only thing I can compare it to is the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union, where what people -- the party said it was for and what it was for was just so disparate that it just collapsed.

And that's what's happening to the Republican Party. It's just collapsing.

TAPPER: And it's depressing, because there are a lot of us who are not members of that party who wants there to be -- who want there to be a thriving, smart Republican Party out there.

(CROSSTALK) TAPPER: And I just don't even understand what politicians who know better who are Republican officials -- let's just pick one at random -- Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator Marco Rubio, what they're thinking when they watch the party base -- President Trump today is attacking Dr. Anthony Fauci.

His goons are out there spreading lies and completely discredited, sleazy stories that nobody thinks are accurate. I mean, what does a Senator Rubio think when he sees this?

STEVENS: You would have to ask him. I really don't understand it.

I mean, what really breaks my heart is, these politicians are the heir to the Greatest Generation. And courage isn't standing up to some ridiculous figure like Donald Trump. Courage is getting out of the boat when the man in front of you just got shot.

And that's their legacy. And that's what tens of thousands of people like my dad did. And they just came back and they thought it was normal and built a life.

And these politicians can't even stand up to Donald Trump? Everything that they said in 2016, like Senator Rubio, they know it's -- about Donald Trump -- they know it's true. And it's only got worse.

I mean, I was pretty -- I wrote a book that was pretty pessimistic about the Republican Party, "It Was All a Lie," finished it about a year ago.

Turns out it was way over optimistic. I mean, I never thought that we'd end up in a situation where there was no platform for the party. There was just an oath of loyalty. It's extraordinary. And I don't see it going to change, except by sheer fear.

Trump has proven there's no line of principle that pretty much he can cross that the Republican Party's going to rise up and disagree with. So they have -- I spent decades working in this party. And the only thing I can look at it now is say, burn it down. Just burn it down and start over.

And I think that's what's going to happen, same thing that happened to the Republican Party in California, which is now in third place. It may take longer than we think, but it's going to happen.

Donald Trump is going to lose. There is a chance he could win. There's a chance I can be drafted by the Eagles. It's not going to happen.

TAPPER: Well, we might need -- we might need you on the O line, Stuart, just for the record when it comes to the Eagles.

Stuart, The book is called "It Was All a Lie."

It's a very heartfelt book about his time in politics and what's happened to the Republican Party.

Thank you so much for your time today. Really appreciate it. STEVENS: Thank you.

TAPPER: Coming up: how one Republican trying to hold her Senate seat is juggling a complicated relationship with President Trump.

That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:57:25]

TAPPER: Back with our 2020 lead.

Democrats think they may have a chance to pick up a Senate seat in Iowa, where Republican Senator Joni Ernst is locked in a tight battle with the Democratic challenger, as CNN's Jeff Zeleny reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Senator Joni Ernst was already facing a tough reelection fight in Iowa. And then this:

RON STEELE, DEBATE MODERATOR: I don't think you answered my question. What's the break-even price for soybeans in Iowa? You grew up on a farm. You should know this.

SEN. JONI ERNST (R-IA): I think you had asked about corn. And I -- it depends on...

STEELE: I asked her corn.

(CROSSTALK)

ERNST: It depends on what the inputs are, but probably about $5.50.

STEELE: Well, you're a couple dollars off, I think, here, because it's $10.05. But we will move on to something else then.

ZELENY: An uncomfortable moment in the middle of Iowa's harvest and election season, for a once rising Republican star elected in 2014 by playing off her farming roots in TV ads.

ERNST: I'm Joni Ernst, and I approve this message because Washington is full of big spenders. Let's make them squeal.

ZELENY: And in the GOP response to the State of the Union address, which she was selected to give during her first month on the job in 2015.

ERNST: As a young girl, I plowed the fields of our family farm.

ZELENY: This year, a bigger challenge for Ernst could be headwinds from President Trump. He won by 9 percentage points here in Iowa in 2016. But he's now locked in a tight race with Joe Biden.

ERNST: It is a tough, tough, tough year. But you know what? I'm going to finish first.

ZELENY: Two weeks before the voting ends, Republican fortunes in their Senate majority are tied to the president.

MARK MCALLISTER, REPUBLICAN VOTER: That's the real terror of this all, is that Trump takes down the whole ticket, the whole Republican side of the Senate.

ZELENY: We cut up with Ernst at a recent campaign motorcycle ride.

(on camera): Senator, is President Trump complicating your race?

ERNST: No, I would say I'm running my own race.

ZELENY: But what about the suburbs? Does that complicate your path there?

ERNST: I think -- again, in the suburbs, I have met with suburban women. They're really concerned about law and order, that type of issue. And that actually is an issue that draws them closer to the president.

ZELENY (voice-over): That is unclear.

Her Democratic opponent, Theresa Greenfield, believes issues like health care are more pressing.

THERESA GREENFIELD (D), IOWA SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: I will tell you, health care is number one. Certainly, during COVID, that has elevated that conversation. And that very difficult health pandemic, coupled with economic crisis, you know, Iowans are concerned, for sure.

ZELENY: Greenfield is a real estate executive who also often talks about growing up on a family farm. And her farming facts came in handy during that debate last week.

STEELE: What's the break-even price for a bushel of corn in Iowa this week?

(LAUGHTER)

GREENFIELD: Well, a bushel of corn is going for about $3.68 today, $3.69. And break-even really just depends on the amount of debt someone has.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: Jeff Zeleny, thanks.

Our coverage on CNN continues right now.

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