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The Lead with Jake Tapper

New CDC No-Mask Guidance Raises Questions; Interview with Hawaii Governor David Ige; Stefanik Replaces Cheney as #3 In GOP House Leadership; Ally of GOP Rep. Gaetz Will Plead Guilty of Six Charges, Including Sex Trafficking of a Child; Dozens Killed as Violence Escalates in Israel & Gaza; Sources: Colonial Pipeline Raid Ransom to Hackers. Aired 4-5p ET

Aired May 14, 2021 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[16:00:00]

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: But were people giving you the hairy eyeball?

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN HOST: Oh, yeah. I get the stunk. I mean, I get the stunk even when I don't deserve it, regardless of the mask. But i certainly got it the two places I went yesterday. So --

CAMEROTA: I just love that image. I wish you had posted it.

All right. Have a wonderful weekend.

THE LEAD WITIH JAKE TAPPER starts right now.

(MUSIC)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: COVID cases are plunging, but there's confusion.

(VIDEO GAP)

TAPPER: Mask on, mask off. After the CDC sets our faces free, so many confused Americans and their leaders wondering what to do with this guidance.

And the most talked about woman in politics, Congresswoman Liz Cheney, will join me live.

The stark warning she's issuing to the nation about what she fears will come next.

Plus, ransom paid. Colonial Pipeline gives the hackers what they wanted to get gas flowing again. Are other criminals watching and learning?

(MUSIC)

TAPPER: Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

And we're going to start with the health lead today, and a Pandora's box of confusion brought on by the CDC's sudden yet liberating announcement that fully vaccinated Americans do not need to wear masks inside or outside. Well, many states took their recommendations at face value and quickly lifted mask mandates. Many others did not, saying they will review the new CDC guidance.

The D.C. mayor among them, keeping mask rules in place, even though starting today, federal employees including those in Washington, D.C. do not need a mask while at work if fully vaccinated.

Despite the CDC guidance, airlines and Amtrak are still requiring masks and so are many major retailers including Walmart, Target, Kroger, Home Depot, Starbucks, the list goes on and on.

CNN's Nick Watt reports on this reluctance to change despite what the CDC is advising.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK WATT, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive has never been lower than it has been these past few days, ever. That's big. So is this.

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If you're fully vaccinated you no locker need to wear a mask?

WATT: Too soon?

DR. LEANA WEN, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: This change was really abrupt. The CDC went from zero to 100 overnight.

WATT: Let's break it down. Just the fully vaccinated, so just over one-third of the population and its guidance, actual laws and mandates --

DR. ROCHELLE WALENSKY, CDC DIRECTOR: These decisions are going to have to be made at the local level.

WATT: Take Hawaii, for now --

GOV. DAVID IGE (D-HI): My mask mandate continues to be enforced. Everyone must wear their masks indoors.

WATT: Minnesota's mask mandate already no more.

GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN): If you're going into a business where folks are unmasked, you know that they're vaccinated, it's a safe thing to do.

WATT: But how do you know they are vaccinated?

DR. PAUL OFFIT, MEMBER, FDA VACCINE ADVISORY COMMITTEE: This really is the honor system so I'm going to wear a mask if I'm in an indoor public place.

WATT: Kroger, Home Depot, Starbucks all still insisting staff and customers continue to mask up. Some school districts already dropped mandates. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Zero, no one wears mask, (INAUDIBLE) unmask (ph). It's pretty sweet, pretty dope that we got rid of it.

WATT: Chad is now eligible for a vaccine but remember, younger kids still are not.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL INSITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: High school kids, adolescents certainly will be able to be vaccinated by the time we get to the fall year, but I think it's going to take until the end of the calendar year to get elementary school kids vaccinated.

WATT: The CDC, we're told, struggling to convince vaccine hesitant Republicans. It's kind of a mess to figure out with this particular audience who resonates with them, said one source, because they see vaccines as taking away their freedom.

Does stuff like this actually help?

BRIAN CRICHTON, PRESIDENT, TALLADEGA SUPER SPEEDWAY: Fans that come out tomorrow and if they are either tested or get the vaccination, they will be able to take two laps around the Talladega Super Speedway, the world's biggest and baddest and fastest track.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WATT (on camera): Now, Jake, as you mentioned, the CDC update on the masks caught a lot of people by surprise including the White House. They say they're going to need a few more days to update the guidelines for other federal properties. Here in Los Angeles, they are keeping the indoor mask rules for now while they take a look at CDC guidelines, and they tell us to sometime soon expect sensible adjustments -- Jake.

TAPPER: All right. Let's bring in Hawaii's Governor David Ige. He's among the state leaders holding off on lifting mask rules even for vaccinated people.

Governor, thanks for joining us.

What's your reasoning for wanting to keep the mask mandate in place even for fully vaccinated Hawaiians for now?

GOV. DAVID IGE (D-HI): Yeah, thanks -- thanks for having me, Jake.

You know, the reality is here in the islands that the majority of our residents are not vaccinated.

[16:05:01]

You know, we're doing very well with vaccinations, but as we speak just under 60 percent of our community is still not fully vaccinated. We do want to -- we do know that the best, most effective mask mandate is when everyone is wearing a mask, and because we can't identify those who are vaccinated from those who are not, I just felt that it was appropriate that we continue the mask mandate at this time. We'll be evaluating the news from the CDC and making adjustments that

make sense.

TAPPER: You understand, Governor, I'm vaccinated. I'm fully vaccinated. If I'm in a room full of other fully vaccinated people, the CDC says we do not need to wear masks.

So I guess the first question is I have for you is, whatever happened to following the science?

IGE: Well, we are following the science, and the science also says, you know, at this point in time that the best policy if you're unknown, whether people are unvaccinated or not, that people should wear masks.

So, you know, Jake, I do think that that's the challenge, right? We have those in our communities who are vaccinated and those who aren't, and clearly, we celebrate the science because they say for those who are fully vaccinated two weeks after the second dose for two-dose vaccines, that they are able to interact and their risk of capturing the virus is significantly lower, and that's great news.

You know, it does reaffirm that there is a light at the end of the tunnel when we get people fully vaccinated.

TAPPER: But aren't you dis-incentivizing getting a vaccine? Aren't you -- the people who are vaccinated do not benefit from the fact that they're vaccinated other than the fact that they have a much higher likelihood of surviving this pandemic. But they -- you're taking away the reward or at least not allowing people to have the reward that they deserve for getting vaccinated.

IGE: Well, certainly there is reward. I mean, you know, I -- I'm vaccinated and for the first time in almost a year, we felt comfortable going out and getting dinner. And clearly, I think that there are personal benefits that get derived.

But, you know, from a public policy perspective, you know, the policy -- we did learn, especially when it comes to the mask mandate that simpler is better. And having all kinds of carve-outs and other kinds of situations where someone doesn't have to wear a mask really makes it impossible to enforce any kind of mask mandate.

You know, we do know and as you're aware, the vaccines were just recently approved children 12 to 15. You know, we want to be able to make progress. We are scheduling vaccination opportunities for our teenagers all across the state.

We want to continue the effort and the progress that we've made with vaccinations, and clearly, when we can get to the overwhelming majority, 70 percent or 80 percent in our community who are fully vaccinated, then it would be appropriate to make further adjustments to the mask mandate as well as other restrictions.

TAPPER: Tourism is huge for your state. Are you worried that by keeping your mask mandate, you are keeping people away? IGE: You know, we implemented the most extensive safe travel program

in the country, Jake. You know, we have a mandatory ten-day quarantine for all transpacific arrivals here in the state. We require or have a program to allow pre-travel testing so those who can take a PCR test 72 hours prior to departure can arrive in Hawaii and not be subject to quarantine.

You know, we are seeing renewed travel to the state. We're actually at about 70 percent of the pre-pandemic travel levels to the state of Hawaii.

So people understand that it's safe and healthy here in the islands, and, you know, we continue to implement the pre-travel testing program. We will be incorporating vaccination for those who are vaccinated when we can get to the point of verifying those who have been vaccinated in other states.

TAPPER: Uh-huh. Well, you know, there is a system that allows people to verify which is I'm sure you have in your wallet as I have in my wallet, the card that shows that I have been vaccinated.

[16:10:07]

And I would be happy to go to a resort in Hawaii, show them that and then not have to wear a mask and enjoy the benefits of being vaccinated.

Hawaii Governor David Ige, thank you so much for our time today, sir. Aloha.

IGE: Aloha.

TAPPER: A new survey says hundreds of public health experts expected mask-wearing in public for another year. What Dr. Gupta thinks of that next.

And a date which will live in infamy, the January 6th MAGA terrorist attack now getting the 9/11 treatment. Details of the commission being formed to investigate the insurrection.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: We're back with our health lead now.

Confusion, concern and understandably caution over the CDC's new guidance that fully vaccinated Americans can ditch their masks inside and outside.

[16:15:02]

Given the risk and more than had a year of loss some states, retailers, even many Americans are not ready to go unmasked.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) REPORTER: Why is it so important to wear the mask in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You know, it feels right for the time being. I lost a parent to COVID so I had a personal loss there.

REPORTER: Why are you still wearing the mask?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I want to stay safe. Stay safe and keep all the other ones around me safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Let's bring in CNN's chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

Sanjay, I would rather have Americans being too cautious than too reckless. But moments ago, we heard from the governor of Hawaii who says he's still reviewing the new mask guidance and worries he can't enforce rules for those not vaccinated. A tough call for a lot of leaders.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It's absolutely a tough call, and you're seeing all sorts of different responses to that. I watched the interview you just did with the governor of Hawaii. On the other hand, you know that the governor of Nevada has basically said we're going to follow CDC guidelines no matter what which means that in casinos, large indoor gathering places, people are come in without masks on and not have to show any proof of vaccination in many of those places.

So you have a wide variety of sort of responses to this, and a lot of it is now left on these local, you know, businesses or communities to basically figure out how to implement this. I think it's going to be really challenging, and frankly tense at times because if -- if you -- if you're not asking about people's vaccination status and other people are feeling uncomfortable, I worry about the tense atmosphere that may cause in some of these places.

TAPPER: Yeah. I mean, it does seem curious. I'm fully vaccinated so I'm not worried about myself, but my son is not vaccinated because he's 11. That age hasn't been approved, and if we're relying on the honor system for a lot of people who are not vaccinated, I mean, that requires that they have honor.

GUPTA: Right, and like what is at stake to your point, Jake? You are pretty well protected. People who are not vaccinated like your son are going to be more at risk.

But also, unvaccinated people subsequently spreading it to other unvaccinated people this, virus. It just could prolong this pandemic. We're obviously going to keep an eye on the numbers here, the number of cases, and they have been coming down very steadily along with hospitalizations and deaths.

But the question now is, again, people who are vaccinated I think should feel very comfortable with that level of protection, but are we now prolonging this pandemic by allowing the virus to essentially continue to spread now among a significant population of the country?

Remember, only a third of the country is fully vaccinated. Someone said it to me like this yesterday, the deputy director of the Vaccine Research Center at the NIH said, we're going to turn into a America not of vaccinated and unvaccinated. We're going to turn into an America of vaccinate and infected because you're making it more likely that the unvaccinated people will actually become infected because of the lower rate of masks.

TAPPER: Do you think that the governor of Nevada by not requiring vaccinated people to prove that they are vaccinated before they are allowed to go into a casino or the governor of Hawaii by not lifting the mask mandate, not providing an incentive for vaccinated people -- for people to get vaccinated, oh, I got vaccinated. I can go to this resort in Hawaii and not have to wear a mask, do you think -- there are flaws in both of these approaches?

In both approaches you're not incentivizing getting vaccines.

GUPTA: Right. I think that's it. I think the similarity, very different sort of approaches, but the similarity is that they both could be a disincentive. People who would otherwise have gotten vaccinated because they don't like wearing the masks, they don't like having the public health measures imposed on them, they don't necessarily have to wear the mask anymore and they don't have to get the vaccine.

And the same thing in Hawaii if you're already in that situation, why would you go ahead and still get the vaccine. So, it's -- they say at the CDC this wasn't done to incentivize people, but I -- I would have hoped they would have thought through this idea that you're raising, Jake, that it might disincentivized people to go get the vaccine. I'm sure that wasn't the unintended consequence but that could very well happen.

TAPPER: Yeah. I mean, I just think that people need to think about how they can chip in and incentivize people to get vaccinated.

Sanjay, you have an extraordinary CNN film out tomorrow called "The Race for the Vaccine." It's remarkable when you think about it that scientists developed this kind of vaccine as quickly as it did.

GUPTA: It really is. Look, I don't think anybody, Dr. Fauci, people at the NIH, anybody really thought that within a year that we would have a vaccine. Maybe one person Kizzie Corbett said that we would, and I can't think of anybody else who really thought it was going to happen, and it did.

[16:20:06]

What the film is about is really celebrating these scientific teams. One of the teams average age under 30 out of Australia that was working on this, just incredible, incredible scientists, but they for the last year, period of time, really did nothing but try and work on these vaccines. They had the weight of the world on their shoulders, I mean, leaders

of countries calling into the labs saying you've got to get this done. It's kind of a remarkable story, you know, in terms of what they had to do with everything on the line.

So, you know, someone called it a moonshot of medical science, Jake. And I think -- I think, at first I thought it was hyperbole. I think it's real and you'll see why tomorrow.

TAPPER: I can't wait to watch and as far as I'm concerned, these doctors and scientists and researchers have not yet gotten all the praise that they did. What they did was nothing short of a miracle.

Dr. Sanjay Gupta, thank you so much.

GUPTA: You got it.

TAPPER: And you can see the premiere of Sanjay's new CNN film, "Race For the Vaccine". That's tomorrow night at 9:00 here on CNN. Kind of a preview of the CNN Heroes.

The friend who flipped. New details of the plea deal a friend of Congressman Matt Gaetz struck in a sex trafficking investigation.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:25:55]

TAPPER: In our politics lead today, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is officially the number three Republican in Congress after her House colleagues voted this morning for her to replace Liz Cheney as conference chair.

Stefanik unquestionably is more liberal and less reliably supportive of Trump policies than Cheney. She's definitely more liberal than Congressman Chip Roy of Texas who ran against her, but Stefanik is willing to lie about the election, and neither Cheney nor Chip Roy are.

Stefanik's nomination comes the same day a bipartisan commission was green lit to investigate the January 6th insurrection after months of negotiations.

CNN's Ryan Nobles joins us now.

Ryan, tell us how this commission will operate.

RYAN NOBLES, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this was a significant development, Jake, because as you mentioned it took quite a few weeks for them to come to an agreement between Republicans and Democrats and the parameters are such. This is going to be a ten- person commission. It will be equal number of Republicans and Democrats. They will also have equal subpoena power and also the scope of this

commission will be reserved to the events of January 6th and the activity that led to the insurrection on that day.

Now, they need to have their work all wrapped up by the end of the year. We expect them to hold hearings. Some of them will be public and some behind closed doors.

Right now, it is both the Republican ranking member of the Homeland Security Committee, John Katko, and the chair of that committee, Bennie Thompson, that hatched that deal and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised she will bring it to the floor of the House as soon as next week -- Jake.

TAPPER: Because Pelosi wanted there to be more Democrats than Republicans on this commission but there's an equal number, five and five. Kevin McCarthy, the lead Republican in the House, he still has not approved of the deal. Does that mean that there's a chance that it won't happen?

NOBLES: Well, to be clear, legislatively they don't need McCarthy's support to make this happen, but it would certainly make the process a whole lot easier. And also, Jake, this isn't about pushing something through with only Democratic support.

They truly want this legislation to be bipartisan. And if Kevin McCarthy supports it, that means a lot more Republicans will vote for it to happen and then in addition to that, if McCarthy supports it, it will be much easier to bring over the ten additional Republicans necessary on the Senate side.

But, Jake, Kevin McCarthy for weeks has been complaining that he wants the scope to be much more than just the activity that led up to January 6th. He wants it to include a broad range of what he calls political extremism. He even talked about the Good Friday killing of a Capitol police officer after someone rammed a car into a barricade outside the Capitol.

McCarthy said he hasn't seen the details of the legislation quite yet so he's not ready to give it his full approval, but Pelosi is ready to move ahead and have a vote on it next week.

TAPPER: And, Ryan, there was a last-minute challenge to Stefanik to win a House Republican conference chair but she overwhelmingly won the vote of the House Republicans today. Has the House Republican Party united around her?

NOBLES: It certainly seems that way, Jake. It wasn't a close race, as you mentioned, but I do think that there are a number of headwinds that lie ahead for this group. Kevin McCarthy would prefer the conversation to be all about the 2022 midterms. Their attempts to stop the Joe Biden agenda, but there is a collection of House Republicans that represent the far right of the Republican Party that want to continue to rewrite history and make that the focal point of their conversation. There was a Congressman Louie Gohmert of Texas who went on the house

floor to say the violence and chaos on January 6th wasn't that bad. It was a group of people who made their way into a building. So this is going to be something that is in the background of the Republican Party for some time to come. It was something that Liz Cheney was pleading with Republican leaders to get rid of, and at this point they were unwilling to do so, Jake.

TAPPER: Well, let's not forgot, most House Republicans voted to disenfranchise either Arizona or Pennsylvania and most of them signed on to that crazy Texas lawsuit.

Thanks, Ryan. Appreciate it.

[16:30:00]

Congresswoman Liz Cheney, a reminder, will join me on THE LEAD at the top of the next hour to talk about this.

Also, on our politics lead today, indications of more trouble ahead for Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida. Federal investigators are examining whether Gaetz broke any laws involving federal sex trafficking or prostitution or public corruption and whether he had sex with a minor -- allegations that Congressman Gaetz denies.

But now, we are learning details of a plea deal struck by one-time close associate of Congressman Gaetz, a man named Joel Greenberg.

Let's bring in CNN senior legal affairs correspondent, Paula Reid.

Paula, you have details of the plea bargain.

PAULA REID, CNN SENIOR LEGAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Jake.

Greenberg, a former Florida tax collector, has struck a deal with prosecutors where he has agreed to cooperate with them fully and plead guilty to six charges, including sex trafficking of a minor. Now his former close associate, Congressman Gaetz, is not mentioned anywhere in this 80-page plea agreement. Congressman Gaetz has not been charged with a crime, and he's denied any wrong do. But as you noted, Jake, the congressman is under investigation for allegations of prostitution, sex trafficking and possibly having sex with a minor.

And as part of this plea agreement, Greenberg must cooperate fully in any ongoing federal investigations and the most important line in this 80-page plea agreement is that as part of this deal, Greenberg plans to admit in court that he introduced this child to other adult men who engaged in commercial sex acts with that minor. That depending on who he's referring to do cause trouble for Congressman Gaetz.

TAPPER: Well, Gaetz says he has nothing to worry about, but what do legal experts say?

REID: Well, legal experts and other reporting suggests that he should be concerned. We're reporting that for the past year, Greenberg has been sharing information about Congressman Gaetz with federal investigators, including details about how Greenberg and Gaetz exchanged money and gifts for sex with women.

Now in this plea agreement, Greenberg, for example, admits he spent $70,000 in 150 different transactions to pay women for sex via different accounts. He labeled these transactions things like school, food and ice cream.

Look, that's a little weird, but it tracks with actually our reporting, and receipts that we've seen where Gaetz and Greenberg paid women for sex over these kinds of electronic payment apps.

TAPPER: All right. Paula Reid with the latest, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Growing fears in Gaza that an invasion by Israeli troops could happen

at any moment. We're live along the Israel-Gaza border as missiles and rockets continue to fly.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:42:02]

TAPPER: In our world lead now -- in Gaza, rubble, terrified Palestinian families and pleas for help as Eid festivities turn into nights of terror. Israel continues to pound Gaza with air strikes. Israel says it targeted Hamas leaders who have been pummeling Israel with rockets. Those IDF strikes are reducing apartment buildings to ash.

Over 120 in the small and highly populated city of Gaza have been killed, according to the Palestinian health ministry there. Hamas continues to fire rockets indiscriminately into Israel as sirens sound all day and night and fears grow that Israel could invade Gaza from the ground.

CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is north of Gaza, in Ashdod.

Nic, what are you seeing there? What's happening?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, Jake, in the last few minutes, we're actually able to see a number of Israeli aircraft frying through the sky. It was quite noisy. They were on their way to Gaza. So, you got an idea of the sort of noise and sound of fury on the way to Gaza that people there are experiencing.

And we've been with troops along -- Israeli troops along the border today and all afternoon and particularly into the evening the Iron Dome has been in action. If it wasn't there, I can tell you the troops at that location probably would have been hit multiple times that they were targeted.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) ROBERTSON (voice-over): Over Gaza, the fury of war frozen. Hamas rockets tear towards Israel's Iron Dome, defensive tentacles. On the ground, fear.

The families flee sheltering in U.N.-designated safe havens and schools.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): They are targeting our homes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): We stayed together at home with a group of children. Suddenly, we heard artillery hitting us from every side. Wherever we looked it was hit willing. We and our children are completely exhausted.

ROBERTSON: The toll, deaths and destruction climbing on both sides. At Gaza's border tanks, troops, armored personnel carriers on standby. Iron Dome intercepts overhead, a background beat of war.

And that's the siren here and that means that we're -- this location is being targeted so we're going to move swiftly for cover. Not enough troops here for a ground incursion but getting their job done, according to Israel's prime minister.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: I said that we would strike Hamas and the other terrorist organizations very hard, and we are doing just that. In the last 24 hours, we have attacked underground targets. Hamas thought it could hide there, but it cannot hide there.

(CHANTING)

ROBERTSON: Away from Gaza at Friday prayers in the venerated Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, tensions mounting. Worshippers angry over Palestinian suffering clashing with Israeli police.

[16:40:03]

Across the West Bank, confrontations continuing throughout the day. Indirectly Hamas managing to turn Gaza's suffering to their advantage.

ABU OBEIDA, HAMAS SPOKESPERSON (through translator): If it comes to responding to your aggression and claiming victory for our people and our sanctities, there are no red lines. Sacred rules of engagement are complicated calculations.

ROBERTSON: What's lacking here is diplomacy. No off ramp in sight. The suffering spurring increasing international calls for an end to the violence but nothing to show for it yet.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (on camera): And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this afternoon indicating that he reads the pressure that's on him as something that he with withstand. He said he thanked President Biden, he thanked the British, thanked the French, thanked the German, thanked the Austrians as well, all for standing by Israel and saying that Israel has a right to respond to this indiscriminate fire coming from Gaza onto Israeli citizens and many cities around here.

So, the prime minister does feel as if he has the space left to let this and make this war go longer -- Jake.

TAPPER: All right. Nic, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Stay safe.

Joining us now the founder and president of the Eurasia Group which aims to help investors and businesses understand the impact of foreign policy and global markets, Ian Bremmer.

Ian, thanks for joining us.

We just saw out Nic Robertson report live from the front lines of the conflict. We're seeing Israeli troops edging closer to Gaza, a ground invasion would be the catalyst to an all-out war. Your group says there's a 40 percent probability of, quote, limited war.

Explain.

IAN BREMMER, PROFESSOR, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS: Yeah. In other words, we don't think that ground forces are going in, in part because there is growing international attention and pressure on the Israelis not to take that step. In part because it would hurt the Israeli economy significantly, not only in addition to the additional casualties that it would bring on both sides, they are already doing a lot, Israel, to significantly degrade Hamas' capabilities and push them back. Most military analysts are saying at least a year and a half or two with what they have already done.

And furthermore, the domestic incentive that Prime Minister Netanyahu has had towards escalation has already succeeded. They were within days, maybe even hours of a new opposition government coming into place. Netanyahu would have been gone. The best opportunity to remove Netanyahu in ten years, that's now off the table because there is no longer a possibility of the leader of that coalition coming together with the Arab-Israeli party.

And that means that Netanyahu gets to either be part of a new government, probably won't come together or there'll be a fifth election. In other words, he lives to fight another day. That was a big piece of this.

TAPPER: The IDF just announced Syria fired three rockets toward Israel. Syria has its longstanding issue and dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights. Are you afraid that this could escalate beyond Gaza?

BREMMER: Well, it certainly has the potential to. You know, remember, Golan, you know, not only annexed by Israel but recognized that annexation by the United States under the Trump administration, Biden not turning it back.

The thing is that even if there was more support, I mean, one interesting thing to see is that -- that there doesn't appear to be far greater Hamas military capabilities today than there was during the last war. Part of the reason for that is that Hamas doesn't get a lot of international support. It's basically Iran.

Iran has had major economic problems of its own over the last few years. And the war that we saw break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the past months completely changed because the Turkish government with a lot of money and military support gave the advanced military capability, drones and the rest to the Azeris completely changed the nature of the fight with the Armenians.

That's not happened between Hamas and Israel over the course of the last week, and that makes it seem less likely that this war would expand significantly. Also keep in mind that Israel is also in the best geopolitical position that they have been in decades, not just in terms of the U.S. supporting them strongly but also the diplomatic moves and breakthroughs that they have had with many countries in the region.

TAPPER: Yesterday, the official IDF, Israeli Defense Force Twitter account tweeted incorrectly, quote, IDF air and ground troops are currently attacking in the Gaza Strip. About an hour later it was walked back. An army spokesman told CNN, quote, there are currently no IDF ground troops inside the Gaza Strip. But the original incorrect tweet is still up.

What's your reaction to all of that?

BREMMER: The best reporting I've seen is disinformation. You do that, and, you know, Hamas, you have a system of tunnels that Hamas uses towards the border that is called the Hamas metro.

[16:45:09]

And when the IDF suddenly is engaging or says they are engaging in -- in ground strikes, Hamas then sort of floods the zone at which point, the IDF engages in bombing strikes and they believe killed a hell of a lot of them. That appears to be intentional disinformation in order to make them vulnerable.

TAPPER: Eurasia Group president, Ian Bremmer, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it.

BREMMER: Thanks, Jake.

TAPPER: The hacked pipeline company pay adds ransom. It got the gas flowing but did it set a dangerous precedent? That's next.

Plus, Congresswoman Liz Cheney warning that Donald Trump and Trumpism are a threat to this nation that we've not seen the likes of before. She will join us in the next hour.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:50:02]

TAPPER: In our money lead today, Colonial Pipeline did in fact pay the multi-million dollar ransom demanded by criminals, sources tell CNN. The head of U.S. Cyber Command saying the attack is part of a growing trend of companies and even government agencies being held hostage by malicious cyber terrorists. The hackers were seeking $5 million from Colonial Pipeline though the exact amount they received is not yet known.

The president of CrowdStrike and former FBI executive assistant director, Shawn Henry, joins us now.

Shawn, thanks for joining us.

You work for the FBI's Criminal Cyber Response and Services Branch. What do you think the implications will be of Colonial Pipeline paying the ransom? Do you think it will increate more cyber attacks because ultimately the hackers got what they wanted.

SHAWN HENRY, FORMER EXECUTIVE ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, FBI: Well, that's certainly the implication, and that's the reason that the U.S. government discourages people from making these types of payments. You don't want to incentivize them to continue.

Unfortunately, with the level of sophistication in these types of attacks, the encryption protocols, these companies are facing an existential threat and if they don't pay they don't have the ability to reconstitute their environment. They may be out of business. What we've got to see is the government taking additional action to try and disrupt these organized groups before they can launch their malware, as well as the company's taking a more proactive approach on their networks to prevent these attacks from happening in the first place, Jake.

TAPPER: We've been talking to experts all week about this, and one of the things we're told is that the U.S. government is not on the case enough and that if these hackers in particular were from Russia, the Russian government is not going after them, is not punishing them, and they have to be held responsible as well.

HENRY: I think that's absolutely the case. You know, people have seen Colonial as a major issue because there have been people waiting in line for gas for 40 or 50 minutes or more, but these types of attacks have been going on for years. Most recently the last couple of years very high rate of targeting, but the government's role is in disruption and deterrence, and they cannot arrest people in foreign countries without the cooperation and the collaboration with the foreign host government.

We've got to see more of that. When I was in the FBI, we had extensive international cooperation with countries around the world. However, if you find countries that are unwilling or unable to intervene in their nation to apprehend the individuals that are launching these attacks, then the U.S. government needs to ramp up their protocols through financial sanctions, diplomatic actions, et cetera, Jake.

TAPPER: What lessons should companies be taking on this attack on the Colonial Pipeline? Are they things that they should be doing to better protect themselves? HENRY: Absolutely. I think the first lesson is the U.S. government,

while their efforts are -- are in good position, they are not capable to scale and they don't have the ability to protect the entire Internet. Therefore, the responsibility for protecting your environment rests with yourself.

Companies need to be proactive. They need to deploy the right technology that allows them to have visibility into what's happening. If they have the right processes and policies and they are employing good cyber hygiene, they can prevent these attacks.

Unfortunately, too many companies are not keeping their systems patched. They are using legacy hardware and software and they are falling behind. You've got to protect your own home and own environment and if you want to remain resilient, you've got to invest in your security. These attacks will continue indefinitely because the return on investment for the adversaries is substantial.

We've estimated these organized crime groups have made billions of dollars.

TAPPER: Yeah. Shawn Henry from CrowdStrike, thanks so much. Good to see you again.

In just a few minutes I'm going to sit down with Congresswoman Liz Cheney and her biggest fears if Donald Trump continues his stranglehold on her party.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[16:58:48]

TAPPER: Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper.

This hour, a monumental shift. Fully vaccinated Americans now being told by the CDC they can ditch the masks but government officials across the country are grappling to respond with how to respond for those who won't get a shot.

Plus, paying up. Sources tell CNN, Colonial Pipeline did pay a ransom to cyber criminals. The pipeline is now back online. But that doesn't mean all those gas shortages are over.

And leading this hour, the future of the Republican Party. In moments, Republican Congressman Liz Cheney will join me live.

Cheney, as you might remember, was purged from House leadership this week after standing her ground, telling the truth about Trump's big lie, the 2020 election, the January 6th insurrection.

Today, House Republicans voted for Congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York to take Cheney's place as GOP conference chairwoman, cementing the party's loyalty to Trump over instead traditional conservative principles. Joining us to discuss, Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

Congresswoman Cheney, thanks so much for joining us. We appreciate it.

REP. LIZ CHENEY (R-WY): Great to be with you, Jake.

TAPPER: So, the House Republican conference voted for Elise Stefanik to replace you in party leadership. You weren't there. You were talking to Wyoming reporters, I'm told.

Would you have voted for her or would you have for Congressman Chip Roy of Texas who like you is far more conservative than Elise Stefanik and also like you refuses to push the big lie about the election?

CHENEY: Yeah, I would have voted for chip.