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The Lead with Jake Tapper
Any Moment: Biden To Speak On Russia-Ukraine Crisis; Biden Speaks On Russia-Ukraine Crisis. Aired 4-5p ET
Aired February 18, 2022 - 16:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[16:00:00]
PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: We're expecting President Biden at any moment.
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The president is about to give an update on his attempt to convince Russia to stand down and not invade Ukraine. This as the State Department says Russia is already carrying out false flag operations and a source calls the outlook bleak.
The news a lot of parent don't want their. New clues about why vaccines for kids under 5 have been delayed and what scientists need to know to move forward.
And emotions running high as a judge sentences the former police officer Kim Potter to two years for shooting and killing Daunte Wright.
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BROWN: Welcome to THE LEAD. I'm Pamela Brown in for Jake Tapper.
And at any moment, President Biden is set to address the world from the White House about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
A senior U.S. official telling CNN today the latest intelligence assessment is, quote, bleak, and shows Russia is moving forward with its preparations for an invasion. The United States now estimates 160,000 to 190,000 Russian personnel are in and around Ukraine, nearly double the number from three weeks ago. This includes troops on the borders and Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine, causing heightened concerns, an explosion in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk which the U.S. State Department is calling a false flag operation, an attack set up by Russia to try and justify an incursion into Ukraine.
Let's get straight to CNN's Kaitlan Collins at the White House.
Kaitlan, President Biden just wrapped its call with European leaders, what are we expecting to hear from him in his speech?
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. For the last several days, he's been having these one-on-one calls with world leaders ever since he spoke with President Putin himself on Saturday for about one hour. And today, they got all of these world leaders together to be on one conversation given -- we've seen all the developments that have happened in the last 48 hours. A lot of them, pretty similar to what we had seen from Secretary Blinken saying this is what it would look like in the lead up to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And now, President Biden is preparing to speak publicly on the latest on what's going on. Don't expect any major announcements. We were told it will be more of an update like what we saw earlier this week. Though, that was a pretty significant update when President Biden came out and updated the troop numbers on what the Russians have amassed on Ukraine's border. What we knew to be about 130,000 to 150,000.
So, he will come out and he will speak. Of course, there are questions of whether or not he will update us any of the intelligence that he's been seeing -- the route -- the moves that Russia is making, given he has said, he does believe, Pamela, that Russia could invade any day now. It has been difficult for officials are say what day. We should note President Biden will stay here in Washington for the presidents day weekend.
Of course, the schedule looking ahead to what President Biden is going on next week, we should note he's going to stay here in Washington for the Presidents Day weekend. But the White House has just announced he will hold a virtual G-7 meeting next Thursday. Of course, whether or not invasion happens before then remains to be seen. If that meeting still goes forward, that also remains to be seen.
One of other update we just get from the briefing there's two national security officials where they attributed that hack that happened in Ukraine. Of course, that cyber attack that they said was one of the largest in their nation's history. And now, the White House feels comfortable to go on the record saying they do believe Russia is responsible.
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ANNE NEUBERGER, DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER FOR CYBER AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGY: We have assessed that had Russia was responsible for the distributed denial of service attacks that occurred earlier this week. I will note that the speed with which we made that attribution is very unusual. We've done so because of a need to call out the behavior quickly as part of holding nations accountable when they conduct disruptive or destabilizing cyber activity.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Now, those are exactly the kind of activities that you heard from Secretary Blinken say that they believe will do before an invasion or in tandem with an invasion or an attack. And so, of course, they are moving with speed to attribute that to Russia they said, faster than they typically would for something like this.
BROWN: Yeah, it certainly caught may eye, how quickly they did that. All right. Kaitlan Collins, thank you. We're covering the story across the globe. I want to bring in CNN's Clarissa Ward live from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Jill Dougherty, live from Moscow.
Clarissa, let's start with you. There are indications we have false flag operations, the White House now confirming Russia is behind the cyberattacks already underway in Ukraine. How critical is this moment for Biden?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it certainly feels like a critical moment for people here in Ukraine. There is no question. We're seeing a steady uptick in activity of all different varieties, both in terms of the shelling, going back and forth on those front line positions that had largely been frozen and mostly quiet for some years now, and we're also seeing what Ukrainian officials in tandem with U.S. officials are calling false flag operations, or staged provocations, is the expression being used here.
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To give you an example, the city of Donetsk, that is in the far east of Ukraine. It's in that pro-Russian separatist held areas, those breakaway republics. Today, we heard sirens blaring. We saw the separatist leader of one of those breakaway republics come forward and urge civilians to leave, saying that there was an imminent Ukrainian military major offensive.
What was interesting was that when CNN went closer and looked at the metadata of this video message that this leader, this pro-Russian separatist leader delivered, we found in fact this message was recorded two days ago. Not today. Very shortly after that, we've also seen images of a jeep ablaze in the same city, in Donetsk. Separatist leaders saying this was kind of -- well, an attack, an explosion, a car bomb. The car belonged to the head of security for Donbas. Again, Ukrainian officials firing back, saying, this is a staged provocation.
But what you have here, what people fear you may have is the makings of some kind of a pretext for President Putin to launch an incursion of sorts. We are also seeing now video of buses taking people, civilians, from these areas into Russia, allegedly for safety at the urging of their leadership. It's not clear at this stage that there is any actual reason for any of this to take place other than the fact that what you may be looking at is a scenario where they are manufacturing some kind of a refugee crisis, again, in order to allow the Russians to have that pretext that we have heard U.S. officials warning about for quite some time now to launch some kind of an incursion, because it is important for our viewers to understand, Pamela, that the people living in those areas, 600,000 of them, now have Russian passports.
And we've seen Vladimir Putin do this time and again. Not just in this conflict. Also in Georgia in 2008, handing out passports and then using these false flag operations as an excuse to go in and protect Russian passport holders, or Russian nationals. So definitely, I would say, some concerning developments on the ground today. And as I said in the beginning, the shelling also continues at a much more intense pace on those front lines than we have been used to in the past years.
BROWN: Which is very notable. It shows an escalation that is happening right now, Jill. Earlier this week, President Biden had said there is, quote, plenty of room for diplomacy.
Still -- is there anything he can say today that he hasn't already said to persuade Vladimir Putin to de-escalate?
JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think really at this point you can. All the cards are on the table. And what we're seeing right now, in fact, it was interesting, what Clarissa was talking about. Here in Moscow, there is a palpable sense that something is changing. We've had a lot of images on Russian TV all day of the people who are being evacuated. We don't know how many, loaded on to buses, very touching pictures of women, older women, children being taken from those Russian speaking areas in eastern Ukraine, breakaway regions, over to Russia.
President Putin today appearing with President Lukashenko of Belarus. Remember, Belarus, of course, is where all the military exercises have been taking place. And President Putin essentially lake it out there saying, look, Kyiv right now can solve this. What they have to do is sit down at the table with the leaders of these breakaway republics and solve -- get on the political issues, et cetera, so there can be some type of resolution.
And then I have to note that one of the, I would say strongest images we're about to see which will come probably Saturday, tomorrow, is President Putin is going to be holding these, or the military will be holding strategic military exercises that will include ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and President Putin presiding over it.
And, of course, that is a reminder that Russia is a nuclear power. So we have a lot of images. And this is really, as I said, information war at a very high pace at this point.
BROWN: Kaitlan, President Biden has tried to move past his chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the stain it left on America's global reputation. How is the White House trying to use the stand-off to fix that?
COLLINS: I think a lot of it has to do with the officials who are working in this Biden administration right now, many of them also worked here in 2014, the last time they saw Russia take a similar effort to what they believe they are trying to do right now.
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And so, I think that they have really said, and been pretty clear that they're trying to handle it differently. That's one of the reasons you've seen them be so forthcoming with intelligence. Basically Secretary Blinken yesterday laying out what they thought could happen. It was like reading an intelligence report of what they believed we could see Russia do over the next several days in the lead-up to an invasion and once an attack actually began. And so, this comes, of course, you know, as they've had these concerns
of what he can do. The misinformation, the chaos that they can try to sow. One of these concerns they have now, we are told, President Zelensky, of course, the Ukrainian leader, going to Munich on Saturday as he is scheduled to go for the security conference. The same one that Secretary Blinken is at right now, that Vice President Harris is at, attending in Germany.
And they have some concern. They haven't explicitly asked him not to go, based on my colleague's reporting, but they have some concerns about him leaving the country, making a flight that's about two, two and a half hours, and being out of country at such an intense time. Maybe Vladimir Putin will try to put this idea out there that he's fled the country. Maybe air travel could get disrupted if an attack does go forth.
And so, I think those are concerns they've had internally. They're not making them clear publicly. And instead, publicly, Pamela, they're saying if he wants to go, if he thinks it is wise to go, he has the support of the United States behind him. But it does speak to just how unstable the times are. And the concerns really over what has happen in the last 48 hours or so.
BROWN: Where do things stand on that in terms of, I think the last they know I read was that he, the plans could change depending on the situation, right?
COLLINS: Yeah, I think, obviously, if we see real signs of invasion, if he leaves the country, what would be the situation and underhand. We've seen all these meetings scheduled over the next several days. Everyone keeps saying that depends if there's an invasion or not.
And so far, we've not heard of any plans of Zelensky to cancel his meetings. We know one of those meetings is with Vice President Harris. So, obviously, that's something they place high importance on. And so, we haven't heard of him planning to cancel it right now. Of course, that is about 24 hours from now.
So, everyone will be watching that closely and, of course, watching closely to see what Russian state media is saying about this. What Putin is putting out there as well.
BROWN: Sure, that's why we love hearing from Jill who is tracking all of that.
And, Clarissa, you're tracking from Ukraine. Multiple sources are telling CNN Biden administration officials have privately urged the Ukrainian president to stay in Ukraine this weekend, as Kaitlan just mentioned. That concern behind the scenes. They do not want him to travel to Munich where world leaders are gathered for a security conference.
Why do you think they want him to stay in Kyiv from your perspective?
WARD: Well, I think from the Ukrainian perspective, it's very important to not show that you are panicking, right, that you are six you willing to the fever pitch of rhetoric around this imminent invasion. So, it's understandable that President Zelensky is still planning to continue ahead and go to the security conference to try to show that life continues as normal. He's the leader of a state and he has important meetings lined up and he wants to go and attend those, particularly at a moment of crisis. Some of those as Kaitlan pointed out, are potentially very important.
From the U.S.' perspective, of course, they're looking at this in a very different light. They're clearly interpreting it in a very different way than the Ukrainians have been interpreting. And of course, there is concern that he could be weakened politically if he was shut out of the country somehow, if there was a worst-case scenario. In the back draft to all of this is not just the destabilization of -- that an imminent invasion would bring, an actual invasion, but the political destabilization that is already happening on the ground in Ukraine as a result of this crisis.
And this is something that President Putin is actively trying to foment, eroding support for Zelensky's government, trying to make them appear weak, impotent and is why we are seeing the strident tones from Ukraine's leadership in ways we haven't seen before. They want to take control of the narrative on the ground and show that they are not, that they are unflappable, if you will, and that they are not going to allow themselves to get hysterical or panicked by this whole situation. That's an important image for them to project to ordinary Ukrainians.
BROWN: Clarissa, Jill, Kaitlan, stick around as we await to hear from President Biden.
And he is expected to speak from the White House, addressing the world about the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Also coming up, burned rubber. Thousands of Porches and other luxury cars are sitting on a burning cargo ship at sea.
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What happened?
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BROWN: And we are back with our world lead and we go back to Jill Dougherty, Clarissa Ward and Kaitlan Collins from the White House, as we await to hear from President Biden on this escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Jill, what do you think? I mean, we just heard from the White House warning of the extensive sanctions they're considering. They're saying these would be the most powerful sanctions to date. Why have those warnings not been a deterrent so far for Putin?
There has not been a full invasion. We've seen more troops amassing. We've seen these false flag operations. The U.S. now blames Russia for the cyberattacks on Ukraine this week.
DOUGHERTY: You know, Pamela, sanctions have been imposed for a very long time.
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And when you look at Ukraine, it's been happening since Crimea which would be 2014. And there is a debate, you know. Do they actually work?
Now, concretely, they have damaged the Russian economy. There is no question. But Putin decided early on that what he was going to have is counter sanctions.
And so, what he did was he deliberately said, no European products, no European cheese, et cetera. But he also began building up domestically some of the industries that really weren't very well-developed.
So he's been able to, I would say, overcome some of those sanctions by building up domestically. But they have been hurt. The question is, will that economic math work with Putin at this point?
Because there are issues that really go to the core of what he thinks about Russia's role, what he thinks about his own role in the world, the place of Ukraine, his whole idea is based on the, on this concept that he has which is very emotional, too, that at the end of the Cold War, Russia was weak and the West, especially the United States, essentially forced Russia to do what the west wanted. And he would say, you know, we were on our knees at this point but we're not on our knees today, because, you know, he's built up financial reserves of a -- $620 billion.
So he has been preparing to withstand a lot of pressure. And do I believe that it goes just I don't understand that mathematics of will it hurt, won't it hurt, it's a deeply held feeling that he wants a sphere of influence around Russia, and that includes countries like Ukraine, like Georgia, that used to be part of the Soviet Union and he cannot countenance having them either as member of NATO or even tacitly, realistically, pro forma members of NATO.
BROWN: Yeah. And it's interesting. On that note, Jill, the White House, a White House official said today that the west would emerge from this if this invasion does happen, more united to share core principles than at any point in the post-Cold War era.
So, clearly, the White House is banking on that to try to deter Putin. He does not want a more united NATO. And Kaitlan, I'm wondering. We're about to hear from President Biden. He is going to be laying the groundwork, of course.
Why is this moment so important? We know he talked to Vladimir Putin last weekend. He has been very forceful with what he has said to date. What does the White House hope to accomplish with his speech today?
COLLINS: I think it is also notable. This is his second speech that he's given dedicated to this week. Before this, it had been some days before he addressed this topic solely. May be he answered a question here or there but they were watching to see what Putin was going to do and the moves he was making. And, of course, they've been talking openly the satellite images that
have provided for everyone to see the troop movements and how they added to the force posture in and around Ukraine. And I think when you hear from the president today, it will be more of an update as did he when he updated the troop numbers, talking about how many they've seen. And that is important to point out, given Russia is claiming that they're drawing down troops.
The White House is saying that is a lie. They're actually adding forces and they are putting them in positions where they would be ready for an attack to happen. So it is also countering the narrative there and saying, this is what we do know Russia is doing and here's why we know it.
So I think that's expected to be what we hear from President Biden here in a few moments as well. It is notable how much time he's dedicated to this publicly. I think what the White House is doing is setting up meetings in the coming days. I mentioned the virtual meetings with the other G7 leaders, that President Biden is going to do. Next Thursday, there's a lot of time between now and then, the president himself has said an invasion could happen at any time.
But also, Secretary Blinken, secretary of state, is now scheduled to meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to the White House. That's something, when he was speaking at the United Nations yesterday, he said he extended that letter to have them meet, granted an invasion had not happened by that point, by Wednesday.
Of course, that's several days away. We have no idea what will happen between now and then. It is notable that they are trying to continue to keep the Russians talking over the next several days.
BROWN: It is notable as we see some activity.
And I want to bring in CNN's Alex Marquardt in the key Ukrainian port city of Mariupol for more on that, because there has been an escalation in eastern Ukraine. Specifically in the Donbas region, and the U.S. thinks this is likely a false flag attack being carried out by Russia, right?
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ALEXANDER MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Pam, we've talked about Russia's hybrid warfare. It's not just what they're doing with their military. It's not just what they're doing in terms of cyber which as we just know, the White House just said this week's attacks, they did attribute to the GRU.
But it's also this incredible disinformation campaign that they have -- that they've been engaged in that got kicked into a higher gear today. There are these two regions in eastern Ukraine, these breakaway enclaves. They call themselves republics that have been out of the reach of Kyiv for the last eight years and backed by Russia.
And the two leaders there simultaneously this evening said that they were calling on their citizens to evacuate to Russia, to head eastwards into Russia. They said they wanted their populations to do that because they accused Ukraine of mounting an operation along their border, a defensive operation, that they were putting troops and weapons along the border to attack. One of those two leaders asked the men to pick up arms and fight.
Of course, Pam, there is no sense that Ukraine would carry out any sort of offensive operation against them. It is one of these seemingly false flag or staged operations that the likes of which Secretary Blinken and others have repeatedly said Russia could raise as a justification to invade Ukraine. And it does come at the same time that we are seeing an increase in the shelling along this line of contact, as it is known, the front line between Ukrainian fighters and Russia-backed fighters which is just 15 miles behind me.
That for the past few years has seen so much fighting. You know, 14,000 people dead. And so this is growing. Yesterday, there were some 60 violations of that cease fire. That's the biggest number in almost four years. We saw the shelling of that kindergarten, a little ways north of here.
So there is a significant fear that Russia is ratcheting things up. Pro Russian forces ratcheting things up in a way that President Putin could then say, hey, look, there are these ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, these Russian speakers who are under attack. We need to step in and try to help them -- Pam.
BROWN: Yeah, that would be right out of Russian play book for sure.
Jill, the U.S. now says Russia has probably amassed up to 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine. That is a big uptake from three weeks ago. Plus, President Putin is planning to attend military drills where ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched this weekend.
What does all of that tell you?
DOUGHERTY: Well, again, facts, the United States is saying that there is an enormous number that has increased. President Putin, I think, is doing more the information warfare part of it. Granted, it is part of this exercise.
You know, they were going to hold these strategic exercises in the fall. They didn't do that. They moved them up to now. And it is a very convenient time to remind the world that Russia is a nuclear power.
And that is certainly a message that goes way beyond Ukraine. It goes to U.S.-Russia relations and to the world.
So I think the Kremlin now is sending a lot of different messages through very specific on the ground people on buses, being evacuated. And then to the bigger picture of their role in the world as a super power, there are a lot of things that when in conflict situations like this, it is multilayered. So you have the military part, you have the diplomatic part, you have the information war part, and many other things.
And all of them, I think now, are coalescing at this moment that does feel different. I have to say here in Moscow today, it does feel more nervous. It is a little more unsettled, and watching TV, Russian state TV with all those pictures of people being evacuated. It has a different atmosphere to it than it did just a day or two ago.
BROWN: That is such important context. Even in Washington, you can feel that too. I'm sure Kaitlan can agree. We've been hearing from administration officials for quite some time that Russia could invade any moment. But certainly given what you laid out there in these, the incremental escalations, it does feel different for sure.
We are still standing by. You see the podium there, for a speech from President Biden as he tries to convince Russia against an invasion into Ukraine.
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BROWN: Any moment, we expect to hear any moment from President Biden at the White House addressing the world about the Russia-Ukraine crisis. You see these live pictures there at the podium at the White House.
So, now, I want to bring back our team of reporters, Kaitlan Collins at the White House, Jill Dougherty in Moscow and Alex Marquardt.
Kaitlan, let's go to you first. Let's talk about the impact it could have on America. U.S. stocks fell again today. Investors clearly uneasy as we loom at the edge of war.
How much is the White House concern about the impact a possible invasion could have on Americans?
COLLINS: Well, they are concerned about it. And that's one thing that President Biden has tried to make clear this week is how does this affect Americans? Because I think the White House understands, maybe some look at this and ask, OK, well, I see where Ukraine is, I see where Russia is. What does this have to do with me and my household?
And in his speech on Tuesday and something President Biden could repeat in a few moments, talking about the impact a Russian invasion could have on the energy market and on energy prices. And, of course, that would translate to higher gas prices when people are already paying more.
And so, they've tried to take steps over the last several months as they've been cognizant of the fact Russia could certainly invade and certainly was preparing to have the capability to invade of making sure they can shore up the capabilities in case this is an acute concern for this White House, given it's already something they've been worried about with inflation, with higher gas praise, and now if this happens, it is another thing they have to worry about.
One other thing we talked about today, when the National Security Council officials came out and attributed the cyber attack in Ukraine, to the Russian government, was talking about threats here to the United States. Anne Neuberger said there are no credible threat right now to the homeland, but she was encouraging a lot of those private companies, water companies, utility companies to make sure that they're being hyper vigilant about something like that, because it's not out of the realm of possibility, as we've seen before.
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And so, I think that's something notable as well. But they are certainly trying to make clear that this isn't just something that could potentially impact Ukraine. It could have wide-ranging effects obviously on Eastern Europe, obviously on all of Europe, but also here in the United States as well.
BROWN: Yeah, it could impact every single American.
Alex, today, the chief of Ukraine's armed forces that Ukrainian military has no plans to launch an offensive in the breakaway eastern regions of Ukraine. Why are those reassurances so important right now?
ALEXANDER MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: For the same reason we've seen the U.S. being so forward in what they are learning and telling us all what to expect so when it does arise, it can be shot down very quickly.
In that respect, the U.S. and Ukraine are very much on the same page. They are expecting to see things like false flag operations and these pretexts that Russia could gin up in order to come up with an excuse to invade Ukraine. So they're in lockstep to shoot down any of these things because the conventional wisdom is that a Russian invasion would be preceded by one of these excuses like aggression, they would say, against Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine.
I think, Pamela, it is also interesting to see where the daylight is between the United States and Ukraine. They have seen similar intelligence. Take for example, the 150,000 Russian troops that are around Ukraine that Biden mentioned the last time he spoke. The Ukrainians believe that to be a similar number. But while the U.S. says that an invasion could go straight to Kyiv, that they could do significant damage and conduct a large scale invasion, the Ukrainians reject that. They say that is not a big enough number to carry out a large scale invasion, to take and to hold Kyiv.
The Ukrainians since day one have been trying to keep their population calm to stop panic from spreading, and they have been rather successful. When you travel across this country, as we have for the past two weeks, the first thing that really strikes you is this remarkable calm and lack of panic. We haven't seen any outward signs of panic in the streets. We don't see people driving out of town to go somewhere else. We dome see people going to shops to stock up their cupboards. We don't see people fleeing. It is absolutely remarkable.
At the same time, of course there is major concern. Especially in a place like Mariupol, so close to the fighting, where there has been shelling and people killed in the last few years. There is real concern. At the same time, what you hear over and over again is that we have lived with this. We have lived next to Russia for so long. We've lived with the Russian-backed forces fighting against our troops since 2014 when they invaded Crimea and annexed Crimea.
And what we hear over and over again from the civilians all the way to President Zelensky the other day. He said, this is not the Ukraine of 2014. This is Ukraine of 2022. Our military has been built up. It is much stronger. It is much more stream lined.
We have the backing of the United States, of NATO. They've got those weapons and they have the training. So they claim that they are ready to fight. They are ready to confront a Russian threat. That if Russia decides to come in, it won't be like Crimea was last time. I was there eight years ago.
The Russians took Crimea without firing a single shot. It wouldn't be like this time between Ukrainian military, the reservists, the territorial defenses as they call them, people in the street who would just pick up arms. You would see a much heavier dose of fighting, a much higher level of fighting. It would be a lot bloodier and that's why you're hearing from people like General Milley at the Pentagon saying this would be incredibly bloody, very horrific.
And you would see tens of thousands of people dying. And likely, hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Ukrainians fleeing, trying to get out of the country.
BROWN: And yet even in that scenario, as you point out, there is still a sense of calm among the civilians there in Eastern Ukraine.
Jill, I want to go back to you on sort of the information wars playing out, because you're in Moscow. You're taking in everything being put out there in Russia. We know earlier today from the White House, a top White House official attributed the latest cyber attacks in Ukraine to Russia, wondering if there is been any response to Russia from that. And what else is going on with Russia in terms of messaging right now?
DOUGHERTY: You know, not specifically that I've seen. But, of course, they will deny it. But I think one of the, if you look at overall messaging from Russia. Overall messaging is that Russia doesn't want war. It has no intention of attacking Ukraine.
But there is kind of a caveat. But if there is a reason, if we, or more specifically, our compatriots who live in that eastern part of Ukraine, the Russian speakers in the Donbas region, President Putin years ago made the case for protecting Russian speakers wherever they may be.
And so he's laid the case. He's actually, I would say, a legal case to protect those people. So I think what they would set up now is that if they are attacked, we have a sacred duty to protect them. And that would mean they could go in and protect. That's kind of I think what's going on.
But one of the complications here is that, you know, in all of these diplomatic discussions with the United States, NATO, OSCE, the Russian has been really maximalist. You know, they're asking for a redo, really revamping the end of the Cold War, and the distribution of forces, everything that came after the end of the cold war. NATO is saying, you're not going to get it. So how do you climb down
from that? That's the issue right now. Can the United States, can NATO, really, the United States, find any way to have a discussion, maybe even as some former diplomats have been mentioning to me, maybe even something off the grid, something private. Something not public, be some type of discussion with Russia that might be able to come up with something face saving that would give President Putin the reason to say, we won something. We got something from the West. But we don't know that.
And so far, it doesn't appear that that is happening. So I think that's the dilemma that they've asked for a lot. And they're saying, unless we have the entire package deal, they actually used the word package. We're not going to have an agreement.
BROWN: Yeah. Knowing they won't capitulate without getting something for it.
Kaitlan, we just learned that Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, isn't with the president. He is in Brussels. So, that mean nearly all of President Biden's top officials are in Europe right now.
Why is this so key?
COLLINS: Yeah, almost every single one. Now, of course, Jake Sullivan, we have now learned is in Brussels. We're still waiting to hear how long he's expected to be on the ground there, engaging in meetings which comes at a very important time, given the developments happened over the last 48 hours. But, you're right, it does mean almost every one of the president's top national security advisers is in Europe because there is this Munich security conference underway right now.
That's what Vice President Harris is going to speak at tomorrow. She is expected to deliver a speech. Also meet with the Ukrainian president. Blinken is there, several top officials are there. All at an important time, a lot of pre schedule visit that's they were expected to go to but they matter all the more now with the ongoing crisis, with those numbers that Alex was just laying out.
So it remains to be seen what exactly, what Jake Sullivan's conversations were. It does play an important back drop. In this speech that President Biden is going to give, what he's expected to say of what is happening in these back and forth conversations that he's having with world leaders and the top aides are having with their foreign counter parts as well.
BROWN: All right. And we are still waiting to hear that speech from President Biden. We see the podium there. He was supposed to make remarks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time. It is now 4:43 p.m. Eastern. He is expected to address the world about the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: -- any day.
[16:47:31]
What is its calculation and continuing to use this language? I mean, does the Biden administration risk losing the trust of the American people if an invasion doesn't happen?
COLLINS: They're hoping one doesn't happen. And I think what you heard from Secretary Blinken, struggling with this question or dealing with this question yesterday when he was making those abruptly scheduled remarks, is he said he hoped they were wrong. That the intelligence didn't, of course, the intelligence they've seen of the posture, the positions, the amassing of these troops on Ukraine's border, he is hoping that invasion doesn't ultimately happen.
And that's the strategy that they try to take here, is that by oversharing the intelligence, by making clear what they think the moves that Putin is going to take, that it could deter him from taking those moves. By floating ideas of certain dates, that he's looking at, of certain tactic that's he's taking, going into detail yesterday of what that manufactured reason for invading could be, saying it could be a fake chemical weapons attack, a real chemical weapons attack, a fake drone strike.
All of these matters that they've picked up on are things that Russia are considering and that President Putin himself is considering. And he said here that he does hope they're wrong, that this invasion does not happen.
But I think when I hear from officials is they think they're right, that they are looking at this intelligence and they do believe this is what Putin is preparing to do. You heard Secretary Austin saying yesterday, he said I have been -- Defense Secretary Austin. I've been a soldier before, he said, and you don't take these steps and get all of these forces ready, 150,000 on the border area. We know it is a much larger number when you count all the Russian personnel, if you're not prepared to take a step like this one.
And you've also heard officials talk about how emotional Putin feels about this decision, how much it means to him based on his world view, something you've heard people like Fiona Hill who was the Russia expert that worked for former President Trump, talk about.
So I think they are making a calculus here by saying an invasion is expected to happen any day now. Of course, whether or not it does, remain to be seen. But they seem pretty confident that Putin is taking the steps to do that.
BOLDUAN: In the meantime, Alex, President Zelensky is still scheduled to go to Munich for a security conference tomorrow. Sources are telling CNN that people inside the Biden administration have urged Zelensky to stay in Ukraine as we've been hearing Kaitlan report. What do you think Zelensky's calculations are for making this decision?
MARQUARDT: Well, what we've seen for quite some time now, Pamela, is again, this daylight between the two sides. You've heard this urgency from the United States. They have been accused of alarmism by Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, Ukraine's foreign minister said that you're hearing these apocalyptic predictions from certain capitals. That was clearly a reference to Washington. NATO has been banging this drum for quite some time, that a significant Russian invasion could happen very soon.
Exactly a week ago, Pamela, we were right here listening to Jake Sullivan stand at the podium of the White House saying there is a very good chance a significant chance, he said, that Russia could invade Ukraine by this coming Sunday. The end of the Olympics.
We heard President Zelensky, meanwhile, during course of the week essentially mocking the time line. He didn't call out the U.S. directly but did he say following the Sullivan comments, if you have information that says 100 percent that Russia is going to invade on a certain day, please give it to me. He said we have other information. We need to analyze this information.
And then you will recall this week, he announced a day of unity because he said, well, we've been told, we have this information that Russia was suppose to invade on February 16th. How about we have this day of unity instead?
We'll have this day of unity instead. So there is this alarm where Ukrainian leaders have not been as convinced that A, Russia was going to invade, and B, that they would do it as imminently. So that is probably playing into the calculation of why he is now going to Munich.
Of course, as Kaitlan has noted, he does have this important meeting with Vice President Harris tomorrow. He is still extremely reliant on the United States and he's been walking this very careful line of downplaying the urgency of the invasion, but at the same time agreeing with the United States saying that it is possible. He keeps asking the United States for more and more weapons. We know on his phone call with President Biden, he asked for more military aid, more financial aid. He asked President Biden to come to Ukraine and visit.
So, clearly, he does feel that there is enough of a chance that Russia could invade that he's going to keep asking for those things. But you have just not felt this sense of alarm from Ukrainian leadership that you have heard from U.S. leadership. Time and time again, they've cast doubt on whether Russia would actually do it. And even so, they say, we are ready to fight -- Pamela.
BROWN: But now, we're in this situation where we are seeing some movement. We've seen escalation with Russia increasing the troops, moving those forces closer to Ukraine. Jill, what do you think it would take for Putin to decide against an invasion?
MARQUARDT: Boy, that's the question. I think, you know, the only -- he has to get something out of this. And what he wants is a maximalist position. He wants this zone of influence, special influence along the border of Russia.
Now, that you might be able, and I've been talking with former diplomats and diplomats. You might be able to come to some type of an agreement which says we will have security talks, big subject, and that we will listen to what you're talking about and we may do some talking in discussions, et cetera. But they've tried that by taking parts of what the Russians demanded in the beginning with this back and forth diplomatic letters. They wanted the entire package.
The United States and NATO said, we'll talk about disposition of forces in Europe along the border. We'll talk about other issues. And the Russians so far have said, that's not enough. You're just breaking it apart to your advantage. We want the entire package that we're talking about.
So, in the end, if you remember, you probably don't but I do, the Cuban missile crisis. And in the Cuban missile crisis, they were able behind the scenes to solve certain issues. U.S. took missiles out of Turkey. It wasn't publicized at the time but it helped to bring it to the end. Then, a year later, the first nuclear arms control agreement.
And you know, Khrushchev could say, well, I want something. Did I something for humanity. So there are ways of doing this but we don't know whether it will work with President Putin.
BROWN: And, you know, on that note, Kaitlan, does the White House actually think -- oh, here's President Biden walking out. Let's listen in.
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Good afternoon.
Today, I made two vital calls, as I've been making for some months now -- two vital calls that -- on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
The first was to a bipartisan group of members of Congress who are currently representing the United States, along with Vice President Harris at the Munich Security Conference.
The second was the latest in a series of calls over the past many months with the heads of state of our NATO Allies and the European Union to bring them up to date on what the United States thinks is the current state of affairs, and what's likely to happen in Ukraine in the coming days, to ensure that we continue to remain in lockstep -- that is the European Union and NATO.
Despite Russia's efforts to divide us at home and abroad, I can affirm that has not happened. The overwhelming message of both -- on both calls was one of unity, determination, and resolve. I shared with all of those on the calls what we know about a rapidly escalating crisis in Ukraine.
Over the last few days, we've seen reports of a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire by Russian-backed fighters attempting to provoke Ukraine in the Donbas. For example, a shelling of a Ukrainian kindergarten yesterday, which Russia has falsely asserted was carried out by Ukraine. We also continue to see more and more disinformation being pushed out by -- to the Russian public, including the Russian- backed separatists, claiming that Ukraine is planning to launch a massive offensive attack in the Donbas. Well, look, there is simply no evidence of these assertions, and it and it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a year-long conflict.
Russia state media also continues to make phony allegations of a genocide taking place in the Donbas and push fabricated claims warning about Ukraine's attack on Russia without any evidence. That's just what I'm sure Ukraine is thinking of doing -- attacking Russia.
All these are consistent with the playbook the Russians have used before: to set up a false justification to act against Ukraine. This is also in line with the pretext scenarios that the United States and our Allies and partners have been warning about for weeks.
Throughout these tense moments, the Ukrainian forces have shown great judgment and, I might add, restraint. They've refused to allow the Russians to bait them into war. But the fact remains: Russian troops currently have Ukraine surrounded
-- from Belarus, along the Russian border with Ukraine, to the Black Sea in the south -- and all of its border.
You know, look, we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week -- in the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million innocent people.
We're calling out Russia's plans loudly and repeatedly, not because we want a conflict, but because we're doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.
Make no mistake: If Russia pursues its plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice. The United States and our Allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security as well.
We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people.
This past year, the United States provided a record amount of security assistance to Ukraine to bolster its defensive -- $650 million, from Javelin missiles to ammunition.
And we also previously provided $500 million in Ukrai- - in humanitarian aid and economic support for Ukraine. And earlier this week, we also announced an additional sovereign loan guarantee of up to $1 billion to strengthen Ukraine's economic resilience.
But the bottom line is this: The United States and our Allies and partners will support the Ukrainian people. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions. The West is united and resolved. We're ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine.
But I say again: Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table.
Last night, Russia agreed that Secretary of State Blinken and Foreign Minister Lavrov should meet on Feb -- on February 24th -- February 24th in Europe.
But if Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy. They will have -- they will have chosen war, and they will pay a steep price for doing so -- not only from the sanctions that we and our allies will impose on Russia, but the moral outrage that the rest of the world will visit upon them.
