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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Harris Clinches Nomination, Considers Running Mate; Harris Earns Enough Votes To Become Democratic Nominee; Emotional Homecoming; What It Was Like On The Tarmac As Jailed Americans Returned; Presidential Scholar On What He Looks For In Election Prediction; Harris Clinches Nomination, Considers Running Mate. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired August 02, 2024 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Welcome to "The Lead." I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper.

This hour, it was an incredibly emotional reunion for the Americans released from Russia, including journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, made it home just in time to celebrate her daughter's birthday today. So what comes next? I mean, what about the others unfairly held behind bars? Alsu's boss joins us live in minutes.

Plus, he's accurately predicted the winner of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, so what does Allan Lichtman think is going to happen come November? Is he picking Harris or leaning towards Trump? I'll ask him live.

And leading this hour, Vice President Kamala Harris on the clock just has a few days to pick her running mate if she's going to meet her self-imposed deadline of next Tuesday. And today, CNN is learning Harris will meet with top VP contenders over the weekend, with multiple sources saying that while all six of these men are in the running, Governors Shapiro and Walz, along with Senator Mark Kelly, are among the top contenders for the job. And CNN's Sunlen Serfaty reports all of this comes as Harris officially earned enough delegate votes to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAIME HARRISON, DNC CHAIRMAN: I am so proud to confirm that Vice President Harris has earned more than a majority of votes from all convention delegates.

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The DNC announcing Friday that Vice President Kamala Harris has won enough votes from Democratic delegates to become the party's nominee for president. I

KAMALA HARRIS (D), VICE PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will officially accept your nomination next week once the virtual voting period is closed, but already I'm happy to know that we have enough delegates to secure the nomination.

SERFATY: And Harris is closing in on one of the most consequential decisions of her political career as she has set to debut her running mate on Tuesday in Philadelphia.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Will you be in Philadelphia on Tuesday by chance?

JOSH SHAPIRO (R), PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR: I hope if we can.

SERFATY: Sources tell CNN that Harris has not made a decision yet, but it's scheduled to meet with top finalists over the weekend, but most expect it to be in person. Those set to meet with Harris include Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker.

Some contenders shifting their schedules as Harris nears a decision.

PETE BUTTIGIEG, US TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: You know, every day we have to tweak the schedule a bit because things come up, calls and meetings that we have to take care of you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can you explain what those are?

BUTTIGIEG: No.

SERFATY: Others joking about fellow hopefuls clearing their calendars.

JB PRITZKER (D), ILLINOIS GOVERNOR: Lollapalooza is happening this weekend here in Chicago, and I've heard other governors talk about how they've canceled their weekend plans. I was going to perform, of course, with Blink 182 on Sunday, but I've cancelled in order to clear my schedule.

SERFATY: The meetings poised to play a critical role in her selection process. Sources tell CNN Harris is looking for a running mate that she gets along with personally and will not be a distraction. But her top consideration is electability assessing which contender will help most with Independents and swing voters, especially in the battleground states.

SHAPIRO: I got a message to Donald Trump stop talking America. This is the greatest country on the face of the earth.

SERFATY: Shapiro, Walz and Kelly are seen as a top contenders with Beshear also being looked out closely. Shapiro and Kelly hailing from key battleground states.

SEN. MARK KELLY (D-AZ): This is not about me. You know, this is about Donald Trump, and what a sad figure he has become.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SERFATY: And Vice President Harris is spending her weekend here in Washington here at our home at the US Naval Observatory. Now, sources tell CNN that these face to face meetings that she will be holding over the next few days will be critical, a critical part of her selection process, her decision making process, and that there's the potential for other candidates to be added into the mix and the schedule. Certainly a huge few days ahead for her as she moves towards making this decision, Phil, by Tuesday.

MATTINGLY: Sunlen Serfaty outside the vice president's official residence, thanks so much. We're bringing in our correspondents and political insiders for this conversation. And I will start with you, Isaac, you have a piece out that really kind of dives into something that's been floating around in Democratic circles related to Josh Shapiro. Pennsylvania governor, amazingly high favorability ratings for a swing state, but there have been questions about he is Jewish and how he decides to approach that role, particularly with support for Israel. What are that?

EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER Yes. Look, Shapiro is very engaged with being publicly embracing his Jewish connections. He grew up Jewish, he's a German. He's, I think, the first governor in the history of this country to keep kosher. And there are questions when Democrats have is America ready for a Jewish vice president, even Democrats who like to think that they're open minds about everything worried about that.

There are some who are supportive of him worried about a backlash of anti-Semitism conspiracy theories. But then there's this other part of it, which is that Shapiro has been very clear that he is supportive of Israel, very critical of the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. He was also critical, though, of the protests on campuses when he felt that they dipped into anti-Semitism and anti-Semitic behavior.

And that has led to some people, mostly online, but of some of the very pro-Palestinian, some would say anti-Israel parts of the liberal base such as it is. He's calling him Genocide Josh. And Genocide Josh, whatever you think of -- the Biden administration says this isn't a genocide.

[17:05:08]

But, number two, Josh Shapiro has never been involved in any foreign policy, anything. He's never had a vote in -- wasn't in Congress, so this is, to a lot of people, who are looking at it singling out Josh Shapiro as the notably Jewish candidate in this race and calling him Genocide Josh, in a way that feels very much with at least hinges of anti-Semitism, if not full on ant-Semitism.

MATTINGLY: Yes. Looks, yes, I'm old enough to remember. I think Lieberman was a vice presidential nominee (inaudible) for like it's happened but -

DOVERE: It is. Looks like that was 2000, it's only four years, but it's also the context of everything since October 7th, which has changed a lot of these conversations.

MATTINGLY: That's -- and, you know, Kristen, it's been fascinating. The Trump campaign seems to look a lot of Republicans were looking at Shapiro and saying, please don't pick him. On some level, they know how important Pennsylvania has been. And the president has picked up on what Democrats have been raising some concerns about. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER US PRESIDENT AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think if she picks Shapiro, who happens to be Jewish, she loses her little Palestinian base because she has -- because they like me because they think I'm going to bring peace to the Middle East.

SEN. JD VANCE (R-OH), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: There's a lot of talk is going to be this guy, Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania, who, you know, I've seen a couple clips of him talking, he talks like Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: So Trump picking up a Palestinian base, I'm not totally sure what he means by that, but Vance also going after him as well. This feels like they're trying to make a point here.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And Chris LaCivita, the campaign manager, actually tweeted out that he had heard from sources it was Josh Shapiro, just trying to stir the pot there but --

MATTINGLY: -- which is good source of you.

HOLMES: Of course, in Biden and Harris world, yes, exactly. But obviously they are watching him very closely. There's a fear factor there. Pennsylvania is critical and Josh Shapiro has been incredibly popular.

So Donald Trump himself has said he also, in that same clip, earlier said he didn't care who that -- who was picked as vice president, it didn't really matter. And I will say that Donald Trump does believe that, believes about his own running mate. He believed it before he chose JD Vance. He said, it doesn't matter I could choose anyone. I'm still the top that ticket. People are voting for me. He believes that about Harris as well.

But the fact that they're zeroing in only really on Josh Shapiro says something.

SERFATY: You know, Ashley, it's not rare in these moments for people to attack potential candidates. They don't want for others to put themselves out there. Canceling weekend plans to try and act like they're definitely potentially into things. I'm not naming names on that. I'm interested in your view of Shapiro.

Because again, the favorability rating in Pennsylvania, it -- just is what it is. His success there seems to be pretty clear. What do you think?

ASHLEY ALLISON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Can I just also kind of point out how strange it was for JD Vance to throw an insult at Josh Shapiro, that he sounds like Barack Obama. Barack Obama is one of the most popular people in the Democratic Party. He -- to Josh Shapiro's point, his response was, he's one of the great orators of our generation. I'm not sure that's --

MATTINGLY: This was like an online thing now.

ALLISON: Yes. But like it's not --

MATTINGLY: But it's like -- not that Vance needs to be told like maybe don't be so online with your --

ALLISON: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- specific cohort. But like that's what it is.

ALLISON: Yes.

MATTINGLY: It's like sort of attacking him for that.

ALLISON: Yes but --

MATTINGLY: No, I know your point.

ALLISON: What's the stress? OK.

MATTINGLY: I'm not saying he makes any sense.

ALLISON: Right. I'm like I know, I know it is. I'm not sure it's a good strategy. I'll give you that for free advice, OK, JD Vance, from one Ohioan to another.

Look, I think I have, as a strict political tactician, elections are about votes in this country of the Electoral College, you need 270 to win. Josh Shapiro represents a state that is extremely important to win. And his favorability ratings are very high in that state. And so, it makes sense for Josh Shapiro to be on the very short list.

There may be drawbacks for all of them but I have always said when you people have said most of time, to your point earlier, Kristen, is that vice presidents don't matter. I actually think they do in this moment, because even though it's not to elderly people at the top of the ticket, that conversation was introduced earlier about Kamala Harris even being Joe Biden's vice president, which is why I think people are paying more attention to the vice president.

And then you have a JD Vance, who people are saying like is the next generation of Trump's MAGA Republican Party. So I think this does matter. I think it helps build a broader coalition who she picks. And I've always said put points on the board. And I think Pennsylvania, you need to put points on the board. Arizona is another state.

I was also kind of hesitant. Roy Cooper has pulled out now but we haven't won North Carolina, even though I think we could win it this year, but we haven't won North Carolina since 2012 with Barack Obama. That's a triple flip --

DOVERE: 2008.

ALLISON: Right, 2008. That's what -- I'm sorry, 2008. So it's a triple flip basically. It's like sometimes it's simple math, but you also need to be paying attention to your coalition and you don't want to cause an unnecessary fracture.

DOVERE: It also, for Harris, I think we don't know that much about her and certainly the American public doesn't know much about her, and this will be a window into how she thinks --

ALLISON: That's right.

[17:10:06]

DOVERE: -- it's about defining her in a way that is different from when Joe Biden made the pick or other.

MATTINGLY: Bryan, to that point, and Isaac made this point a couple of times, I think it's a really smart way for people to key on, which is you can say vice presidents don't matter. Although given what's happened in the last month, you could probably argue, perhaps now they do.

But what this says about Vice President Harris and the direction that she wants to go, and the type of governing coalition she wants to put together seems like an important tattle on someone when --

BRYAN LANZA, FORMER DEPUTY COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, TRUMP-PENCE CAMPAIGN: I mean, she's literate. She is that he's serious crossroads right. At the end of the day, the Democratic Party has its own serious crossroads. You know, is there really a Palestinian faction of the party that's growing, it's expanding, that's going to be hurting the party go forward, and how do they respond to sort of a Jewish vice president. That's her first difficult decision.

And if she doubles downs on the left, that almost disqualifies her for being a mainstream candidate, because she needs something to numb the view that she's a San Francisco liberal. And so, Shapiro is probably the best one that that does it but it also creates conflict within her governing base. I mean, you got the progressives, the lefties, who are just completely opposed to everything he stands for, and they're fighting against him right now.

So from our standpoint, you know, we want to see what fight she's willing to pick, because it'll tell her who she wants to be at the end of the day.

MATTINGLY: In the four presidents, what is a Palestinian faction?

LANZA: Yes, the protesters, you see all the protesters --

MATTINGLY: But they're Americans.

LANZA: Sure, but they're rooting for Palestine, at the end of the day, over Israel. And Israel, you have American citizens who are kidnapped, you have American citizens were killed, and you have factions of those people in the United States who are actually rooting for the people who are responsible, or at least partly responsible for the deaths of those Americans.

That base is only expanding the Democratic Party, and you have Republican politics are highlighting who actually think it's a danger.

ALLISON: I think I would -- that's not my interpretation of what the protests were about. I think they protested the people. Sure, there might have been a few folks who were in the extreme, but many of them want it peace. They want it for children not to be killed and for innocent civilians not to be murdered in response to what happened on October 7th.

And not all of them are Palestinians that were protesting. There are people from the broad Democratic coalition. There are Jewish Americans who are protesting what's happening in the Middle East right now. I think that this is an opportunity.

And I also just want to be really careful with saying that because you are Muslim, or because you're Palestinian, you would not be supportive of a Jewish candidate. And I don't think that's what you're saying, but I want it -- we need to be careful about painting broad strokes. That is what we are working in fighting against.

We do not want to be demonizing people because of their beliefs. We want people to be able to express them. Kamala Harris has an opportunity, though, to start a conversation in this country to really start to bring people back together to identify what her pathway would be for with the conflict in the Middle East, and really show her chops as a leader and picking her vice president will be important. But I don't want to cast the protest is like all anti-Israel. And I think they're --

DOVERE: It feels very anti-American when they're burning American flags.

ALLISON: That is not acceptable, I will say that.

DOVERE: And also some math here that people can think about, 730,000 people in Michigan voted uncommitted in the primary.

ALLISON: Yes.

DOVERE: Those are people who were protesting the Biden-Harris policy on Israel, which was supportive of Israel, right? There are -- Josh Shapiro has won record breaking victories in Pennsylvania but against weak opponents. There are also, and certainly not all the Jewish voters are supportive of where Shapiro is or what he is on Israel, but there are more Jewish voters in most of the battleground states than there are -- than the margin of victory was in 2020.

MATTINGLY: I wanted to ask you -- I'm going to ask you to do it real quick, and I'm going to be yelled at for doing this. You the best sources in our world on Trump campaign. So fight VP subside, where are they right now?

HOLMES: I think there's a lot of figuring out what this campaign is going to look like moving forward. There was a lot of talk about how this was going to look exactly like the campaign against Joe Biden, because they were going to link Harris to those policies. But that hasn't really been that effective yet. Now, this idea that no one knows who Kamala Harris is, that applies to all sides, and that includes Republicans. And they are trying to get out there and define her before she has a chance to define herself. But the big problem is none of the attacks that they've really launched so far may be on immigration, but other than that have been landing.

And so, they're still trying to figure out the best strategy moving forward and there are a lot of people in Trump's orbit who aren't happy with where the campaign is right now.

MATTINGLY: All right. We'll have to see what happens, guys. We got a lot more to get to stick around. Up next, CNN's Van Jones joins me live on today's historic political milestone involving now presumptive Democratic nominee. Plus, there were tears, cheers and plenty of hugs when three Americans who were released from Russia return to the US last night. We're going to hear from someone who was on that tarmac to see the emotional reactions.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:18:42]

MATTINGLY: We're back with our 2024 Lead. In a historic moment for Kamala Harris, will become the first black woman and first Asian American to lead a major party presidential ticket after securing enough Democratic convention delegates just a few hours ago. CNN's Van Jones joins me now.

Van, always appreciate your perspective. I want to get your reaction this, these new cycles move so fast, and like we're very firmly on to the next thing as soon as the last thing finished. Your reaction to the moment kind of the history here.

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know, I've known Kamala Harris for 25 years. And, you know, I'd never thought I would get choked up about anything in her career because I voted for her for district attorney. I voted for her for attorney general. I voted for her for senator. I voted for her for vice president. I'll be voting for president.

I've been voting for Kamala Harris for so long, that you sometimes forget how extraordinary she is. And when I saw they were selling merchandise saying history made, and the merchandise history made sold out almost immediately. I said, well, this is a big deal. This is a very big deal.

I think about my mother, I think about my grandmothers when -- it used to be a joke, the idea that you'd ever have a black president at all. They didn't even -- comedians didn't even make jokes about having a black female president because that was completely inconceivable.

[17:20:00]

Even in the land of Chi comedy you couldn't imagine it. And yet, we're on the edge of it right now. And it's a -- take a breath, take a breath. This is a big deal. This is 400 years. This is a very, very big deal today and we shouldn't rush past it.

MATTINGLY: You know, it'll certainly be a moment at the convention as well, which I think will get proper and ample recognition for what it is. I'm most interested, Van, the vice president has a major decision on her plate right now. We're just talking last block about some of the attacks that we've seen on Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, kind of positioning as people are trying to figure out who's best fit to be in that spot with the vice president.

I'm interested, what's your sense on Josh Shapiro? What's your sense on kind of the shortlist that exists?

JONES: Look, he's come under heavy fire today but he's coming under heavy fire today because he is the most logical person to get this ticket across the finish line. Pennsylvania is must win. He's amazingly popular in Pennsylvania. And he's a beloved figure in Pennsylvania, and he can make a tremendous difference. He pulls Republican and Democratic votes every time he raises his hand for public office.

And so, he's coming under fire. But it will, it will take some courage on her part to have, let's just be honest here, a black and Jewish ticket, a black and Jewish ticket with a woman leading the charge that -- if elections are about change versus more of the same. This is real change. This would be a courageous pick to say, we're not afraid of bigotry. We're not afraid of anti-Jewish bias. We're not afraid of anti-black bias. We're not afraid of anti-women bias.

We're going to pick strong leaders, no matter what they look like, no matter how they pray. And that's going to be our ticket. And trust the American people to look at what we what we're putting forward. Let's not forget on the other side, they've got some courage on their side as well but it's more reckless courage. They're putting somebody up with a bunch of felony convictions, and somebody's been in public office for 18 months. So there are some courage on their side that's looks a little bit reckless.

To put two very successful political leaders, who have won election after election and who have served honorably and well on a ticket should be what Americans do. No matter how they vote, no matter how they pray, no matter what gender they are. If she does that, it will be historic choice all over again.

MATTINGLY: You know, turning to the former president who you mentioned, you said after the NABJ convention, the president say, the former president's interview is very clarifying for voters. I'm interested in your -- what you thought of the vice president's response and how our team is operated, which is to say, you know, it's divisive, it's bad, and then just kind of move on.

It's been very clear, very concise, not kind of pulling our hair out, not going on full attack on it. Is that going to be effective?

JONES: Well, yes, because everybody already knows that Donald Trump is obnoxious on issues of race and does stupid, crazy stuff on issues of race. He's been doing it now for eight years. And if you get off your own message, every time he does that, you just reward his shenanigans.

And I think it's high time that we say, listen, obviously, you have to be a lunatic to not understand that somebody can be black and Asian, or part Japanese and part Puerto Rican. That's -- America is built off of that. That's what America is.

But the reason he did it was he was trying to stop her momentum. He saw a rising sun of hope and joy, and excitement, and a lot of that fueled by the black community. And so rather than him being able to celebrate that, he decided he's going to dampen that. He's going to try to dampen it by saying, well, she's not even really glad.

It didn't work. She's still rising. He's still falling. And today is a great day, and we shouldn't even think about the kind of nonsense stuff that Donald Trump says when you have a beautiful thing happening like it's happening right now in Democratic Party with Kamala Harris.

MATTINGLY: Van Jones, always appreciate your perspective, my friend. Thanks so much.

JONES: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Well, this is a look of a family reunited after months of uncertainty in a Russian prison sentence. Next, I'll talk to someone who knows also Alsu Kurmasheva personally about what it means for him to see her safely at home.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:28:54]

MATTINGLY: Back with our World Lead. We want to take a moment to bring you some of the incredible and emotional moments from last night as three Americans released from Russian prison, Paul Whelan, Evan Gershkovich, Alsu Kurmasheva touched down on US soil. First greeted by President Biden an Vice President Harris, then their families.

The first one to the plane was Paul Whelan, who spent nearly six years in Russian prison. Here you can see President Biden taking the American flag pen off his lapel, handing it on to Paul. Later at the base in Texas where the former detainees will recover, Paul showed it off and call it a keepsake. CNN's MJ Lee was there at Joint Base Andrews last night.

MJ, it was such an incredible night of so many incredible moments. What stuck out to you?

MJ LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. You know, I know you'll know exactly what I'm talking about, Phil, when I say they're -- these rare days as a White House reporter, when you feel like you're just in complete awe at what kinds of things you get to witness sometimes when you're doing your job, and I really felt like yesterday was one of those days. We didn't know what to expect going into the day.

You know, we got to Joint Base Andrews in the afternoon to be ready for the evening when we knew the plane was going to land probably some time before midnight. And we were just standing on the press riser in complete darkness, basically on the tarmac, and suddenly, I mean, we're seeing it there, we saw that light in the sky. And everyone, by my recollection, it just felt like everyone on the tarmac, everyone on the press riser just went silent. As we watched that light approaching the tarmac, we knew that that had to be the plane.

[17:30:25]

And then when the plane landed, and it circled around and got close to us, there was the moment of course, when the door opened, and the stairs came down. And we didn't know who even was going to be coming out, first of those three Americans, two moments that I just feel like I will never forget was when Evan came out, he was the second person to come out. And he went to his mom and lifted her up in that big bear hug, lifting her up from off the ground, just even seeing it now. You just want to weep for his mom, Ella, because you think about how, as a mother, she has been so worried about him for a year or so that he has been in detention.

And then the second moment was, Alsu, going in for a group hug with her husband and her two daughters. They were all just letting out this collective scream, and then wiping away tears for really a number of minutes. And, you know, you were thinking about the fact that Miriam, her birthday is today. That meant that when she got to reunite with her mom, she got to be with her mom when she turned 13. And you couldn't help but think about the fact that she could wake up today on her birthday and know that her mom was going to be OK.

I think at the end of the evening, probably the really fun part for all of us on the press riser was waving to the President yelling out at him across the tarmac and convincing him as he was walking away to come and talk to the reporters and take some questions. You could tell that he was completely gamed to do this. Of course, he seemed like he was in a good mood. And why would he not be when you are having a moment like this, having these three Americans come home.

And he did say when we asked him about whether there was a rush to get this deal done. He said, you're stuck with me as President for a wild kid. There's no way out. He didn't want to take a question on his legacy. He said there's going to be time for that at a later moment.

MATTINGLY: It was a very vintage Joe Biden day and evening. MJ Lee --

LEE: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- really appreciate the reporting and the time, thanks so much. And joining us now President CEO of Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, Stephen Capus, where Alsu Kurmasheva is a journalist. Stephen, I want to -- I'm going to start, you posted a photo, a selfie taken just as Alsu was reunited with their family. And as MJ was noting, it's the 30th birthday of her daughter, you may have seen the President of the United States singing happy birthday to her yesterday during the day. Well, if you've spoken to the family, what are they thinking? What -- how are they right now?

STEPHEN CAPUS, PRESIDENT AND CEO, RADIO FREE EUROPE: This is a family that is enjoying, finally, a reunion that we've been looking forward to for more than a year now. Look, they're going through every -- every single emotion that you can imagine. They recognize so much has been lost, birthdays were missed, events, the big things, the small things. But right now, they're back together. And Alsu is getting taken care of. And this loving family has been reunited. It's really wonderful news. MJ did a wonderful job last night, describing everything with the emotion that we all felt all throughout the day.

And when the President of the United States saying happy birthday to Miriam, and happy birthday today to Miriam, when -- but when the President saying happy birthday, there was not a dry eye in our newsroom and in much of the free world.

MATTINGLY: You know, you -- what was interesting, Alsu's husband told CNN last month that he -- he was so confident his wife will be returned that he wouldn't have bought Taylor Swift tickets for the family. The customer is actually worse off, but they're missing it for the very best reason right now. I -- I believe Taylor Swift may have come up in the President's conversations with the family yesterday as well were mentioned, do you share the optimism as you went through this process?

CAPUS: I think Pavel has been about as optimistic as they get. And we admire his strength, Alsu strength for that family. I think he was more optimistic than many of us were. Look that optimism is infectious. But the reality is, Alsu was in a terrible situation. Her conditions in prison were terrible. This was a -- a brutal ordeal that she was being subjected to, that this family is being subjected to. We were doing everything we can to support her to -- to -- to get her out. Mostly we just wanted this family to be able to go on and live a normal life.

[17:35:12]

We had seen how long Paul Whelan had been behind bars. We had seen what had taken place with Evan. We knew that there was so much going on. And yet, who knows if and when they would ever be released. We hoped for it. But we couldn't take anything for granted.

MATTINGLY: You know, kind of along those lines, I want to make people very aware if they aren't already, there are three other Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty journalists currently behind bars. Tell people about them.

CAPUS: Well, yesterday was a joyous day, right? And immediately, our focus turned to these other three, and their -- their images are on the screen now. Take a look, please. Ihar on the left, Andrey, in the center and Vlad on the right. Vlad was a blogger in Russian controlled Crimea, and they grabbed him. And it's been nearly four years now that he's been in prison. He needs to be reunited with that daughter who's on the screen now and his loving wife in Ukraine.

Ihar and Andrey are being held in Belarus. It's been more than 17 months now, since Ihar who's on the screen there, has been heard from. He's being held incommunicado, which is just families have been ripped apart. And it's just disgraceful. It's time for Belarus, Russia, to release these three in addition to everything else. All of our people are in harm's way in one way or another. We're on the frontlines of democracy.

Everywhere where we operate our places where a free press is under attack, under assault. Our people are threatened, our people are harassed. And in the worst cases, they're thrown in prison. So our thoughts are with those families tonight. We want them to be reunited.

MATTINGLY: It -- it's incredibly important work. Last night was joyous, and there's much joy to come for those families. But obviously, as -- as -- as you point out, there's more work to be done for those three of your colleagues and keeping an eye on your folks on those front lines in the months and years ahead. Stephen Capus thanks so much for coming in. Appreciate it.

CAPUS: Thank you so much.

MATTINGLY: Well, he's predicted the winner of nearly every single presidential contest since 1984. So what does Allan Lichtman think will happen in November? We're going to ask him, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:41:27]

MATTINGLY: We're back in our 2024 Lead. An assassination attempt, the Republican Convention, a complete 180 in the Democratic presidential campaign. Add to that yesterday's historic global prisoner swap and today's economic we'll call it rough day in the markets. And that's just been the last 20 days. Can any of that really tell us what may happen in November? Well, let's bring in Allan Lichtman, presidential historian, distinguished professor at American University. Allan, you're known for -- for your 13 keys to predicting who's going to win the White House, you've correctly predicted nearly every presidential winner since 1984. Not going to tick through all of the keys here. But what stands out to you in terms of what's happened in the last three weeks, particularly as Kamala Harris has become the Democratic nominee.

ALLAN LICHTMAN, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: What is so amazing is how little has changed on the keys. The keys are the Northstar. They're not affected by any of these campaign events, the keys tap into the structure of how presidential work elections work as votes up or down on you -- them out, with Biden stepping down, they lose the incumbency key. But the Democrats finally got smart and united around Kamala Harris. And that means they preserve the contest key. So they've only lost one key which still puts the Democrats in a good position for reelection, a lot would have to go wrong for them to lose, which I've been saying for months. And none of these campaign events change that whatsoever.

MATTINGLY: You know, what's interesting is if -- if you spoke to Democrats, they felt like the President was in a bad position. Clearly, the President kind of concluded that on some level as well, when he decided to drop out. You -- you were saying the day before he dropped out like based on your keys and how you're looking at the race, what you're saying about individual events, not shifting things that he had a very good chance to win.

LICHTMAN: Absolutely, because he secured both the incumbency key and the contest key. Look, I'm not a physician. I'm not going to comment on his mental or physical health, which could operate outside the keys. But leaving that aside, he secures those two keys, that means six of the remaining 11 would have had to fall to predict his defeat, extremely unlikely. Harris secures one of those two keys but now five of the remaining 11 keys would have to fall to predict her defeat, very unlikely.

She's also helped the Democrats on the third party key, making it less likely that people will look to RFK Jr. And with Biden out of the campaign spotlight that would make it less likely there's going to be any kind of massive social unrest through protests.

MATTINGLY: You know, two of the keys are -- are economy related, right, short term and long term. We know the economy is number one issue for voters. The Biden campaign had a messaging issue. They thought it was a messaging issue. In talking about the economy, both the macro numbers themselves, but also their accomplishments. Do you think the Vice President and her team can do better on that front?

LICHTMAN: The Democrats have been abysmal at messaging for a very long time really going back to the Obama administration. You know, he was very successful, but the Democrats lost everything during the Obama years. I do think Harris has an opportunity to reset the conversation about the economy and there's a lot that you could talk about in a positive way, but you got to boil it down to a simple compelling message. Republicans have been great in that, Democrats have been terribly deficient.

[17:45:04]

MATTINGLY: Before I let you go, I -- I got to ask because I've been following with interest you and Nate Silver, the statistician known for his own electric election forecasting don't seem to get along, at least on social media, what -- what's the -- what's the deal with you guys?

LICHTMAN: Really simple. The keys can fall into place early. In 2010, I predicted that Barack Obama would get reelected and, you know, in a very difficult to prove to predict election. Out of the blue, Nate, 30-page attack on me saying you can predict this early. Being a professor, I responded with my own 30-page response which boiled down to the ideas, I can, but you can't, because I tap into the structure of elections. You look at ephemeral polls, which are useless at this point.

I think ultimately, Nate came around to agree with me. I wrote him a very nice email saying, let's write a joint article about how two different predictors came around to the same viewpoint, never heard a thing from him. He's a clerk. He just compiles polls. And then he comes up with these phony probabilities, which are not based on real probabilities. Hillary Clinton has a 78 percent chance or so to win. Then she loses. And he says, see I told you she had a 20 percent, 22 percent chance to lose he can never be right and he can never be wrong because he lives and dies with the ephemeral polls.

MATTINGLY: It is a -- it is a very real beef. Some thoughtful and made obviously has his forecast, his modeling newest version of it that came out as well a couple of days ago. Professor Allan Lichtman always appreciate your time, my friend, thanks so much.

LICHTMAN: Anytime, Phil.

MATTINGLY: So what do our political experts think of Allan's calculations? We're going to ask them, next.

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[17:50:50]

MATTINGLY: We're back with our political experts and adding San Francisco Chronicle Washington correspondent Shira Stein. Shira, I want to -- I want to start with you here because I'm interested right now. You've covered the Vice President for a long time. I'll get to predictions that everybody's Friday thoughts in a moment, Bryan, Ashley, you've been on all day. What do people not know about the Vice President. She's got a huge decision ahead of her. Today was a really consequential day in terms of becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee with delegates. What should people know if they haven't followed her career?

SHIRA STEIN, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE: I mean, I think it's the most important thing to know is that she's a prosecutor and attorney through and through and so I'm sure she is probably sitting around the table with stacks of paper looking at all the possible upsides and downsides. For potential vice presidential pick. I mean, she knows how important this decision is. And she's not going to take it lightly.

MATTINGLY: All right, Ashley Allison, you heard Allan Lichtman, we didn't get like the official final prediction, but very clearly is leaning with his keys in the Harris direction, it seems. What did you think of that?

ALLISON: Well, I mean, if we took a snapshot right now, the momentum is definitely what the Harris campaign I think, rather than leaning into predictions, I just want to kind of celebrate what today means. It's the first time a woman and a woman of color, a black woman is going to be at the top of the ticket. One of my icons, Shirley Chisholm, who I really went into politics, learning about her. She was only on the ballot in 14 states.

But this time, it's different. And so I think that may be in some of the predictions that this feels different than it has before it feels different than 2016. But today is special. And I hope all Americans can appreciate the progress that this country has had on a day like today.

MATTINGLY: It's an important historical point. You know, but Bryan to Ashley's point that it feels different. Do you think that's the case? I mean, I understand where you stand on things and all the dynamics and the sugar highs and all I -- I get it, but it does feel different than 2016 on some level at this point.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Listen, I was deeply involved in 2016. I'm just going to disappear (ph) did sort of feels to say there is this energy. But there isn't sort of a love affair for the candidate yet. And I think we see that the love affair is not there, there's a set to in life ability to record I always say Kamala Harris.

MATTINGLY: Bryan, we got -- we got one issue. Bryan, I think we got an issue with your mic. I don't mean to interrupt. We'll try -- we'll try and get that fixed up. Shira, you know, Harris and her running mate, they're scheduled to go on tour starting on Tuesday, I -- I think. You mentioned she knows the importance of a governing partner who she's going to be with. She's the Vice President. Do you think we get to pick right before then we're all trying to read tea leaves here how you think this works?

STEIN: I think we're either going to get it late Monday night or sometime on Tuesday. I don't know that she's going to come out and at the rally announced the candidate there. But the main key like time crunch that we have right now is the DNC delegates can continue voting until Monday evening at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and so she's going to wait until that process finishes before she decides to -- to announce her VP pick.

I think it could be shortly -- shortly thereafter. And I'm hoping that sources will tell me when exactly it's going to happen as I think every reporter is. But I think we'll probably most likely see it Tuesday ahead of the rally in Philadelphia, which I'll be at.

MATTINGLY: And -- and Bryan, what do you think this is common as -- as a Politico not as a partisan?

LANZA: Yes, listen, I think it's going to -- it's going to have their moment. It's certainly -- there's going to be a lot of eyeballs, the introduction is going to be fine. But yes, I think at the end of the day, we're still, you know, just under 100 days out, you know, plenty of time to sort of define this race. I think Kamala Harris is trying to sort of get her redefining moment and Republicans are going to spend a lot of money, you know, defining her as they know her.

I mean, she's, you know, from our standpoint, we feel that her record with Biden isn't that much greater and then, you know, Lichtman talked about the -- the keys at the -- at the end of the day Lichtman still thought, you know, Joe Biden was going to win because of all these keys. And Joe Biden is no longer the nominee. So you have to sort of put credit where it shouldn't be due.

MATTINGLY: My appreciation to all you guys. Have a great weekend. Sources if you're listening to Shira, she was making a very clear pitch there. Tell her who it is or me one of the two --

[17:55:05]

STEIN: Please do, I'm going to be Philly on Tuesday, feel free to come up to me at the rally.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

STEIN: Any of that sort of stuff.

MATTINGLY: Just do it guys. All right, have a great weekend everybody. Thanks so much for joining us.

Another lawsuit against TikTok and the chance of severe weather this weekend, last leads are next.

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MATTINGLY: In our last leads today, the U.S. government sued TikTok claiming the company failed to stop kids from joining the app and unlawfully collected their personal information such as e-mail addresses, phone numbers and location data. TikTok spokesperson pushback on the allegation saying that company is quote, proud of our efforts to protect children.

And a state of emergency has been declared and most of Florida and anticipation of Tropical Storm Debby is expected to strengthen tonight and tomorrow over the warm waters between Cuba and Florida. The exact track still unknown. But Debby is expected to unleash days of heavy rainfall on the southeast U.S.

[18:00:13]

Coming up on Sunday, State of the Union, Democratic Senator Laphonza Butler of California and Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma also Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer. That's Sunday morning at 9:00 Eastern and noon. The news continues on CNN, everywhere we get.