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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Fed Chair: "Possible To Imagine" Tariffs Worsen Economy; U.S. And Chinese Officials To Meet This Week In Switzerland; Politico E.U.: Cardinals Watched "Conclave" Move For Guidance; Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Is Interviewed About WH Plans Transport Of Undocumented Immigrants To Libya; Why Tensions In Kashmir Are Sparking Fears Of War; Milwaukee Students Get Blood Tests For Lead Exposure. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired May 07, 2025 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ... Rights Division. They don't plan on moving forward with any reforms. And so you have these findings and nothing to show.

ELLIOT WILLIAMS, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: And I would note quickly, most of the time the police department welcomes the contribution to the Justice Department and they collaboratively work together. It happened in Baltimore, Ferguson, Missouri and elsewhere where they all come together and come to some agreement, a consent decree and sort of look to the future. So the idea that it's just the Justice Department wagging its finger and telling local police departments what to do from on high just simply isn't true.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: All right, thank you all very much for joining us today. Really appreciate it. Thanks to all of you at home for joining with us as well. Don't go anywhere. "The Lead" with Jake Tapper starts right now.

[17:00:37]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: The biggest watch party in the world is happening right now in Rome. The Lead starts right now.

Black smoke up the chimney of Sistine Chapel as day one of the conclave comes to a close. The surprising details we're learning about the frontrunners who could be selected to be the next pope as cardinals lock themselves away from the outside world, who decide. And the major testing operation happening right now in Milwaukee, screening school age kids for possible exposure to lead. Will that city be forced to shut down even more schools? CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta is live for us in Wisconsin.

But first, the head turning comment today from the chairman of the Federal Reserve warning that the economy could get worse and he is blaming Trump's tariff.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper. A new serious warning today from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have, they say, increased from last month. Why? Well, the growing threat of complications from President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade war. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the stakes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEROME POWELL, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they're likely to generate a rise inflation, a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in unemployment.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Despite being under immense pressure from President Trump and the White House to cut interest rates, the Fed today held rates steady. They're taking a wait and see approach before making any major policy move. So where does the U.S. stand on talks that could ease some of the tariff impacts? Well, this afternoon President Trump was asked about the major trade war currently going on with China.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you open to pulling back your tariffs in order to get China to the negotiating table?

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: All right. That could make Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's job more interesting this weekend as he travels to Switzerland to meet with Chinese government officials. Bessent saying his sense is that the meeting will be about de-escalation first before they can move forward with talks for a deal. So, what about potential trade talks with other nations? Well, today during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Bessent refused to answer when asked what countries the U.S. is close to striking deals with that it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT BESSENT, TREASURY SECRETARY: Would be detrimental to the interest of the United States for me to answer that question.

REP. NYDIA MARGARITA VELAZQUEZ (D-NY): Why would that be detrimental?

BESSENT: Because as the negotiations may still be in process as we speak, as we are not at the end of the week yet.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: We continue to see real world impacts as a direct result of tariffs. The latest, U.S. automaker Ford announcing today that the sticker price on three U.S. model cars it imports from Mexico are increasing by up to $2,000 each. CNN's Matt Egan was at the Fed this afternoon. He's here with me now.

Matt, what more did the Fed have to say today about that, the potential impact of these tariffs?

MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Jake, the Fed is warning that the trade war could do real damage to what is otherwise a pretty solid economy. But here's the crazy thing, not even the Fed knows exactly what kind of damage the tariffs could do, which means that not even the Fed knows whether or not they can provide help and what that help would even look like. I mean, think about it. One risk, as you mentioned, is higher unemployment caused by tariffs. Normally, the Fed would respond to that by slashing interest rates, but they can't do that just yet because the Fed is saying the tariffs could also increase inflation and so rate cuts would be the wrong thing to do. So that's why they're just sort of waiting and seeing right now.

Now, Powell did acknowledge that there's also a risk of both things happening. Higher inflation while higher unemployment is happening. That would be a stagflationary nightmare for the Fed and for the American people, something that we have not seen in decades.

Now, I asked Fed Chair Jerome Powell what, if any, tools the Fed has in the event that there's another supply chain meltdown caused by all of these tariffs that. Take a listen to his answer. I think it was telling.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

POWELL: I mean, we don't have, you know, the kind of tools that are good at dealing with supply chain problems. We don't have that at all. That's a job for the administration and for the private sector more than anything. Right now we see inflation, you know, kind of moving sideways at a fairly low level.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[17:05:06]

EGAN: Now whenever there's trouble in the economy, we tend to look at the Federal Reserve to try to come to the rescue. I think the Fed, though, is making it clear that at least for now, they don't feel like they can come to the rescue, right? Because there's no magic wand to conjure up trade deals to immediately lower tariffs, to fix broken supply chains. So, for now the Fed is signaling that, kind of like the rest of us, they're going to be bystanders as this trade war plays out.

TAPPER: Fascinating. Matt Eagan, thanks so much.

Let's go to CNN Anchor and Chief White House Correspondent Kaitlan Collins.

Kaitlan, has the White House weighed in yet on the Fed's interest rate decision? And what more is the White House saying about the status of these trade talks?

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, we know how the White House feels, Jake. Certainly President Trump himself, as he has made very clear he would like to see the Federal Reserve interest rate lower rates. He has all but directed Jerome Powell to do so. And he has tweeted about it endlessly. Every time he is asked about it, he has the same answer that he thinks that those interest rates should come down.

But you heard what Matt said there. The Fed chair himself is chalking it up to all the volatility over President Trump's tariffs as a reason why they are waiting to see what they should do next to see what happens to the markets, what happens to the U.S. economy. And so the White House's position here is unchanged, Jake. I don't think they're surprised that the interest rates were not actually lowered today.

But when you talk to the president about what's happening in the middle of this trade war that is still playing out, you know, we just got the first formal indication that talks between the United States and China are going to start happening. There'd been a total lack of clarity here at the White House about whether or not they had already been ongoing since President Trump put those 145 percent tariffs in place. But now we know the Treasury secretary, the trade rep, will be in Switzerland this weekend meeting with their Chinese counterparts. And when the president was asked earlier in the Oval Office about claims from China today that it was the United States that initiated that meeting, this is what he said in response.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: China said the U.S. initiated the trade talks this weekend and that its position hasn't changed. Are you still confident you can reach a deal with China?

TRUMP: They said we initiated?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

TRUMP: Well, I think they ought to go back and study their files.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: Now this has been the game that's been playing out behind the scenes here at the White House as they've been waiting on China to call them or to lower their tariffs as China has been saying it's essentially not doing the reverse here. And still no confirmation of any high level conversations happening here between President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China.

I will say, Jake, one other notable point and question that the president was asked inside the Oval earlier when he was just taking questions briefly from reporters was about something that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified to on Capitol Hill earlier, which is that they are considering tariff exemptions for baby products, things like strollers that parents use every day, that they are finding to cost more because of the president's tariffs. Trump told reporters earlier that it is something he will take into consideration. But he seemed a bit bearish on it, Jake, saying essentially that he doesn't want there to be too many exemptions to his tariffs because he wants to keep it simple. Though we've seen tariff exemptions go into place already when it comes to automakers and big tech as well when it comes to things like smartphones coming from China, Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Kaitlan Collins, thanks. And don't forget tonight on her show, Kaitlan will be talking about Trump's crypto empire. Her guest is Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. That's tonight on "The Source with Kaitlan Collins" at 9:00 Eastern only here on CNN.

Joining us to discuss is MIT Economics Professor David Autor.

David, nearly 10 years ago you co-wrote a paper concluding that the rise in Chinese imports had cost roughly 2 million American workers their jobs between 1999 and 2011. In hard fit -- hard hit factory towns, entire communities fell into ruin. I saw it in Pennsylvania. People see it in Ohio, all over the country. You called this the China shock and you believe that restricting trade with China is necessary to protect American workers.

But you also think President Trump's tariffs are going to weaken American manufacturing. How so?

DAVID AUTOR, ECONOMICS PROFESSOR, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: Thanks for the question, Jake. So that's work I did with Gordon Hanson and David Dorn. And we did find that the incredibly rapid rise in Chinese imports after China joined the World Trade Organization did eliminate a couple million manufacturing jobs and places -- because those places that focus on the, you know, in furniture, in clothing and textiles, they were so concentrated that they just kind of wiped out the economic foundations of all these towns. So it was quite devastating. We were not well prepared for it.

It happened too fast for workers to adjust. There was not government policy in place and it was a really big mistake. So we don't want to repeat that mistake. But unfortunately, you know, I'm sympathetic to the goals of the Trump administration. You know, Secretary Bessent said, you know, the American dream is not just about bigger, cheaper T.V.s, and I fully agree with that.

There's things that are worth paying for. However, the current trade policies are really kind of fighting the last war. You know, baby strollers, you know, tube socks, commodity furniture, these are things that we don't make in the United States anymore. And the China is also happy to lose those industries and already is losing them to Vietnam.

[17:10:11]

The areas where we ought to be competing are the areas we still have prowess. They include robotics, microprocessors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, fusion, aviation, drones, solar and wind generation, electric vehicles. And those are the sectors in which we need to compete. And, and those are the ones we should be investing in and perhaps protecting. But just making all of our inputs expensive, it's not going to help us.

You know, they -- you know, we have 13 million manufacturing workers. China has 120 million manufacturing workers. We cannot dominate all the industries that China is in, nor should we want to. The ones where we need to focus are ones where the U.S. has great strength, which is innovation. And that requires a much more thoughtful and targeted set of trade policies.

TAPPER: When do you think we're going to really start to see the labor markets being impacted by essentially no imports from China? And what could that look like, do you think?

AUTOR: You know, I think prices will rise. And the U.S. labor market has been remarkably resilient. I don't want to, you know, say the sky is falling, but I don't -- you can see if you look at our big manufacturing companies, they're being hurt right now. Their earnings forecasts are incredibly negative. They're taking huge losses.

You know, GM is, Ford is, Stellantis is, Boeing isn't able to ship planes to China. And we can't get rare earth metals that we need to make batteries and semiconductors and aviation and military equipment. So, you know, I don't think we're going to be devastated. But I think what we're doing is we're setting back our own cause. We're, you know, trying to fight the last war and not looking at the war that's directly in front of us.

You know, we have 13 million manufacturing workers. I think the Trump administration would like to get that back to 15. I'm worried their policies are going to send us down to 10 or to eight. We stand to lose the sectors in which we have long had real strength. That's where we need to invest in focus.

And a lot of these policies are not just a distraction, they are friction to doing that.

TAPPER: Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will begin preliminary trade talks with China this weekend in Switzerland. Let's say hypothetically, and this is a big hypothetical, but let's say the U.S. and China were able to strike some sort of trade deal there, would that ease the uncertainty that businesses are feeling? Or will they still be wary of making investments in Trump's economy because they don't know what could come next and he is an unpredictable fellow?

AUTOR: Well, I think there's two issues. One is the uncertainty, right? You'd be crazy right now to make a huge investment in the U.S. assuming tariffs will stay up, right. All the investments that were made during the Biden administration in battery plants and electric vehicles and wind generation, those are all being scrapped right now. So firms have lost on that.

They don't want to lose again. But the other thing is, you know, we've also slapped tariffs on our allies on Canada, on Mexico and Europe, right. We need those countries to work with us in harmony to hope to compete. So we're just becoming an unreliable bad actor in the world trading system. It's an irony that the world's largest communist country is now the greatest exponent of free trade.

TAPPER: David Autor, thanks so much. Really appreciate it. Interesting stuff.

Coming up next, today's black smoke moment and what it could signal about who's still in the running to be the next pope. Plus, a claim you're likely seeing online suggesting that Obama deported more undocumented migrants without due process than President Trump. We're going to compare and dive into the facts. Deportations then and now. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:17:47]

TAPPER: Our faith lead now. The first smoke signal from the Vatican. But it's black. Black smoke billowing from the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel this evening, signaling that the 133 cardinals participating in the conclave have not yet reached a decision on who among them should become the next pope. All eyes continue to wait for white smoke to appear, which will mean that those cardinals did reach a consensus.

Joining us now CNN's Christopher Lamb from just outside Vatican City.

Christopher, not a surprise to see black smoke on the first vote. We should just calm everybody down. Usually takes a couple of days. Let's look ahead tomorrow. How many votes could there be, do you think?

CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, tomorrow there's going to be potentially four ballots. There's two ballots in the morning and two in the afternoon. Now, they'll only do all four if they don't reach a decision. But there is talk this conclave could go on for a little bit longer because the makeup of the College of Cardinals has been radically changed by Pope Francis. He appointed Cardinals from around 70 countries from all over the world.

Some of them don't know each other very well. There's a very much a sense of unpredictability about this conclave and the group of cardinals who are voting. I mean, there's been a great sense of anticipation this evening to look up at the chimney on the Sistine Chapel to wait to see if the cardinals had made a decision. There were tens of thousands of people in the square waiting for a long time in at least a couple of hours to see whether it was black or white smoke. We're expecting more crowds tomorrow as everyone is on tenterhooks to see if the cardinals will choose a pope tomorrow.

My sense is that it could go on for a bit longer potentially. But if it is early tomorrow, then that does suggest that one of the frontrunners might have been chosen. Jake.

TAPPER: How soon after the white smoke appears do we actually find out who the new pope is?

LAMB: Well, it's usually about 30 to 40 minutes.

[17:20:01]

Now, in 2013, though, it was longer. And that's because the cardinals have been trying to communicate with Benedict XVI, the retired Pope, and he was in the papal summer residence of Castel Gandolfo. He was watching the proceedings on the T.V. and he didn't hear the phone ringing from the Vatican telling him who the Pope was going to be. They wanted to tell Benedict XVI, the retired Pope, first, who it was going to be. So there was a delay in 2013. So, I expect about 30 to 40 minutes between that white smoke and then the formal announcement from the Cardinal proto Deacon Cardinal Mamberti, who will come out and say Habemus Papam, we have a pope.

TAPPER: With the doors closed throughout the conclave, do we know of any frontrunners for who might be the next pope?

LAMB: Well, the main frontrunner so far has been Cardinal Parolin, the Holy See Secretary of State. He has been the one who most people see as the man who has had a lot of support in the, you know, in the early days. There's also, however, Cardinal Tagle from the Philippines and a potential outsider, Cardinal Prevost, Chicago born prelate who has worked in the Vatican, who spent a lot of time in Peru. Traditional thinking was there couldn't be a pope from the U.S. However, that thinking has slightly changed.

Cardinals saying nationality isn't so important. So you have the front runners, but you have those candidates who might be seen as more unlikely or outsiders. And of course there is that saying that he who enters a conclave of pope often leaves a cardinal, Jake.

TAPPER: CNN's Christopher Lamb, outside the Vatican, thanks so much.

Let's bring in the author who wrote the acclaimed book "Conclave," Robert Harris, which was adapted into an Academy Award winning film released last year. Robert, thanks so much for joining us. So Politico E.U. is reporting that some cardinals watched the movie "Conclave" to prepare for this real conclave, since this is their first time going through the process. What do you make of that?

ROBERT HARRIS, AUTHOR "CONCLAVE": Well, obviously I'm quite flattered. This is life imitating art. I can sort of see why, in a way, all the resources of the modern film industry went into recreating as exactly as possible for the Sistine Chapel would look like and the process of the Conclave. I did a lot of research for the book and the film follows the book very closely. So it's about as best as you could get in fiction as to what a conclave will actually be like.

TAPPER: Yes. Although I have to say, and I'm not going to spoil it, but that twist at the end, I do wonder what the cardinals -- how the cardinals reacted to that. That would be -- that would be interesting.

What a timely moment to have your work be seen by so many people. Tell us about the research that went into your novel. How did you find out what went on?

HARRIS: Well, there's quite a lot of the information is simply available. The Vatican posts its rules and constitution, so you know how many ballots are going to be every day and the process by which they're counted and all of that sort of thing.

There's quite a bit of leakage from previous conclaves. I think I went through everything that's ever been published. The conclave that brought Pope Benedict to office in particular was pretty fractious, and there was an attempt to block him when the liberal candidates, Cardinal Martini, the archbishop of Milan, didn't do as well as everyone expected. So the liberals tried to find a new candidate, this obscure Argentinian Cardinal Bergoglio, who later became pope, but he withdrew. So, you know, there were things like that.

And also the Vatican gave me access to all the various locations, the Sistine Chapel, the roving room, and perhaps most interesting of all, the hostel where the cardinals live during the conclave, where a lot of the politicking takes place.

TAPPER: Pope Francis, obviously was a bit of a surprise, as you kind of just acknowledged when he was elected in 2013. And you just heard Christopher Lamb say the old saying about favorites, enter a pope, leave a cardinal. Do you think we're going to have another surprise with this conclave?

Oh, we lost -- we lost him. All right. Well, great book, great movie. Robert Harris, thank you so much.

[17:29:35]

Deporting undocumented migrants without due process, critics say that's happening under President Trump. Critics also said we saw it under his predecessor, Barack Obama. What was different then versus now, if anything? We'll dive into that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: In our national lead, there was a viral post on social media that caught our eye. It was about deportations under President Obama. It's getting a lot of attention. The post claimed that under President Obama, quote, "Over 3 million people were deported, but 75 percent to 83 percent never saw a judge or had a chance to plead their case." Posts with similar language have appeared all over X and TikTok and LinkedIn, lamenting what posters say is democratic hypocrisy since judges repeatedly have blocked President Trump from using the Alien Enemies Act, a wartime power to deport undocumented immigrants without due process. Judges are arguing that gives detainees little to no process. But it's not just this social media post.

[17:30:00]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: There's a 2014 article posted on the American Civil Liberties Union website, as well as the websites of other progressive groups, slamming then-President Obama for using fast-track removals of undocumented migrants in the country, which instead accounted for 75 percent of removals at the time. Quote, sometimes involving only a single border agent who acts as both judge and jury. Again, that's from the ACLU.

CNN's Priscilla Alvarez is here for us now. Priscilla, so is there a difference between what Obama did and what Trump is doing?

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There is a difference. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but you have to understand what the fast-track removals are to understand what's happening here. So, expedited removal is the formal name for this. It's been on the book since 1996, and it has evolved over time. But the bare bones of it has remained the same, which is, if someone is apprehended at the U.S. southern border, an immigration officer can determine that they are eligible for, again, what's known as expedited removal, a fast- track deportation proceeding.

There are some protections, though, that are baked into that. For example, if an individual claims asylum over the course of this process, they can file that claim and they can also have an interview and then go through the usual process. The reason that this has often been criticized is because it is more truncated than the usual removal process, and because an immigration officer is the one determining that that person can be put on a fast-track, and that is something that doesn't really have a lot of ability of accountability.

So, that means that migrants don't typically have time in that period to go to an attorney. However, over the course of their removal, there will be instances in which they can contest it. And that's really what it boils down to here. The Trump administration has wanted and has used the Alien Enemies Act. That wipes away all due process. That means that you are an alien enemy, according to the administration. You are out of this country.

Now, the Supreme Court has said that they need to bake in some level of due process for them to contest their removal underneath this authority, and that is something that is continually challenged in the courts today. But it doesn't have it baked into the authority the way that expedited removal is.

So, while there is the argument that the -- that immigrant advocates have made about expedited removal not giving the time for migrants to seek their asylum or rather putting them on a fast track, it is entirely different from what is happening with the Alien Enemies Act. But all the same, there is often concerns about migrants as they are in the process. The immigration process is usually stacked against the immigrants.

So, that has been a through line over multiple administrations. But when it comes to the meat of it, there are two different things that are happening here.

TAPPER: OK. And Priscilla, the Trump administration is planning to go ahead with its plans to deport undocumented immigrants to Libya, of all places. And we're not talking about undocumented immigrants from Libya. We're talking about from other places. You were the first to report on CNN, and you have some new reporting on how advocacy groups plan to -- to fight sending these individuals, these undocumented immigrants to Libya.

ALVAREZ: Just in the last few hours, there has been a lot of filings in the court. So, immigrant advocacy groups immediately went to the court and said, hey, look what is happening in Texas. It seems as though there's a flight going to Libya. And our clients have not been notified in a written way, as you, federal judge, said needed to happen, nor have they been given the ability to contest their removal to Libya.

Now, just moments ago, the federal judge weighed in and clarified to the administration, you have to provide written notice. There has to be some time to contest this. And if you don't do that, then it appears that you might be violating this order. So, this is still playing out in real time. But there is a lot of concern tonight about these migrants in Texas and whether or not they will be sent to Libya.

TAPPER: All right, Priscilla Alvarez, thanks so much. Let's bring in Texas Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro. He represents the district west of San Antonio. He serves on the House Intelligence Committee. Congressman, good to see you. So, you just signed on to a letter alongside dozens of Democrats asking for a Department of Homeland Security investigation into the conditions at migrant detention facilities. The Bulwark was first to report this and says the letter, quote, represents the latest example of a bank shot strategy that the party is taking, the Democratic Party, when it comes to attacking Trump's immigration record, avoiding the larger concept of deportation and instead focusing on the brutality and harshness of Trump's methods, unquote. Is that an accurate description, you think?

REP. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-TX): Well, absolutely. If you look at what's going on, Jake, first of all, they're picking up people off the street. They're forcing mothers to choose whether to keep kids with them, including a few kids that have had cancer, giving them less than 24 hours sometimes to make that decision. And at this specific facility in Louisiana, people are not able to talk to their lawyers. Oftentimes, they're not getting the medical treatment they need. And there are huge overcrowding issues. And so for all those reasons, we were asking for an investigation.

TAPPER: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said that the Trump administration wants to send undocumented immigrants as far away as possible so they can't come back. What do you make of this agreement with Libya that Priscilla was just talking about?

[17:35:14]

CASTRO: First of all, it's just bizarre. But it's also very dangerous for these people. Remember, Donald Trump, during his campaign, talked about deporting criminals. And now he's going after kids with cancer, also people that have been here a long time, that have been paying taxes, taking care of their families, some of them that have been running businesses even.

And now he's talking about sending these people to Libya. That's why you've seen his numbers on immigration fall, because Americans understand cruelty and gratuitous cruelty when they see it.

TAPPER: His numbers have fallen, but the Democratic Party's numbers have not gone up as a reaction. Why do you think your party is still so unpopular, and especially on this issue of immigration? President Trump remains polling OK, not as well as he was before, on this issue. It's still one of his better issues, though.

CASTRO: Well, I mean, look, as a political party, I think when you lose the presidency, when you lose the Senate, when you lose the House, there is obviously an issue with message and what you're communicating to the American people. And I think the Democratic Party obviously has to talk to the American people about what we stand for, the fact that we're trying to build opportunity in this country for everyone. But at the same time, that doesn't absolve Donald Trump of all of his incredible failures and the damage that he's bringing upon the country right now.

TAPPER: But wasn't one of the failures of the Biden presidency, one of the -- at least according to the American people, according to polling, what was described as an open border policy, the fact that he wasn't particularly enforcing of the border and that his policies when it came to immigration seemed all over the map. Isn't one of the reasons you're out of power because the American people ultimately judged that they wanted a more conservative immigration policy?

CASTRO: Well, there's no doubt that the border, that there were more folks over the last several years that were coming up to the U.S.- Mexico border, that oftentimes the Biden administration was trying to follow the law because people have a right, whether it -- it's the United States or another country, people have the right to apply for asylum. And so they were trying to follow the law. But also, Jake, as you know, the border and immigration in this country, especially in places like Texas, my home state, those are some of the thorniest issues in American politics.

And the Republican Party spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to convince Americans that every undocumented immigrant, even kids with cancer, are potential serial killers. They spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to do that. And so, of course, it's a thorny issue.

TAPPER: But U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows regardless of how thorny this issue is, encounters on the U.S.-Mexico border have plummeted since President Trump took office. Even if you don't agree with the administration methods, don't you think that's a -- that's a good thing, fewer illegal border crossings?

CASTRO: No, look, they have. And during the Biden administration, particularly the latter part of the Biden administration, and continuing during the Trump administration, the United States has worked with Mexico and other partner nations to stem that tide of folks who are applying for asylum.

I will say this. There is an effect of out of sight, out of mind. But there is a lot of still in those countries. And at some point, unless you really try to solve those things and work with those countries on solving those things, this is always going to be a challenge for the United States.

TAPPER: Democrat from Texas, Congressman Joaquin Castro. Thanks so much. Good to have you back on the show.

CASTRO: Good to be with you.

[17:38:44] TAPPER: Brand new satellite images show some of the aftermath of strikes by India on Pakistan. How did these two nuclear powers get to the brink? Some context for the current conflict and whether there's a chance for a diplomatic solution. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: The world is watching the standoff between Pakistan and India as fear mounts over the possibility of an all-out conflict between the neighboring nations, each with its own nuclear weapons. India launched strikes deep within Pakistan overnight, saying that they were targeting terrorists.

Pakistan's prime minister described the Indian strikes as an act of war. Pakistani leaders say at least 31 people have been killed. They also claim Pakistani armed forces blew Indian jets to, quote, smithereens. India has not confirmed whether any of its planes were shot down, although French intelligence confirms at least one was shot down.

Indian officials say Pakistan's military killed 12 people in the India-controlled part of Kashmir, as artillery barrages continued throughout the day along the de facto border, the very same place that sparked this latest conflict. So how did we get here? Well, two weeks ago, 26 people, mostly tourists, were massacred in a scenic area of India-controlled Kashmir.

The little-known group called Kashmir Resistance, also known as the Resistance Front, claimed responsibility for the attack on social media, but it has reportedly since walked it back. The group is an offshoot of the Islamist terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which was responsible for the infamous 2008 massacre in Mumbai.

Now Pakistan has denied that India's accusation is true, that it supported, quote, cross-border terrorism in last month's attack. But for more context, let's look at the map. Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan, each control parts of Kashmir, but both claim the region in its entirety. And they fought three bloody wars over the Himalayan territory.

[17:45:13]

The complicated history of this region dates back 80 years, when India and Pakistan gained independence from the U.K. in 1947. At the time, the leader of Kashmir decided to remain independent, and Kashmir is now one of the most militarized places in the entire world. China, for its part, has found itself in a diplomatic tight spot, too.

China also controls a portion of Kashmir. That spot on the map, shaded in blue, and China is a close ally of Pakistan, providing a majority of Pakistan's weapons. All of this comes as China is also trying to shore up diplomatic ties with India, amid a broader pressure from the Trump administration on trade. This afternoon, President Trump weighed in on this conflict. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We get along with both countries very well. Good relationships with both. And I want to see it stop. And if I can do anything to help, I will -- I will be there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Meanwhile, across India today, hundreds of emergency drills took on a more urgent tone. Schoolchildren practiced hiding under their desks as sirens wailed. Preparation, many hope, is reserved for the worst -- reserved for the worst case scenario and will never be necessary.

In Milwaukee right now, mass efforts to find children possibly exposed to dangerous levels of lead in their schools. The city of Milwaukee has shut down eight schools because of this problem. We're going to go to CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta in Milwaukee next, where testing is underway.

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[17:51:27]

TAPPER: Right this minute in our Health Lead, a major testing operation is underway in Milwaukee, as that city tries to combat what officials there call a contamination crisis.

Students in public schools possibly exposed to lead. The city has shut down eight schools because of this problem, and they're inspecting around 100 buildings that might also have unsafe levels of lead. Meanwhile, the health officials there are asking parents to bring in their children to be screened.

We're paging CNN chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, who's in Milwaukee at the testing site to show us what's going on.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, there's a lot of concern about lead here in Milwaukee. A lot of parents really concerned.

The story in some ways started back in January. What happened was a child who was getting lead tested was found to have four times the acceptable limit of lead in their blood. And that started a sort of investigation into what was happening, looking into people's homes, but also looking into schools.

And they found that there were eight schools that had unacceptably high levels of lead. Keep in mind one thing. If you have a building that was painted before 1978, that paint probably contains lead.

That paint flakes. Kids like to eat those paint flakes because they're often sweet. That dust gets into the air, and that's what's causing lead poisoning. There was a kid we learned about yesterday, Jake, had a level of 40. To give you context, the acceptable limit is around 3.5. So more than 10 times the acceptable limit.

And because of that, a lot of kids are now coming into this mobile pop-up testing clinic to get their lead levels checked. That's what the concern is sort of driving to here. They'll come in, they'll sit here, a little lancet, you know, for a finger prick test.

They'll use some reagents. Then they got a machine over here that will give them a result back right away. If that level again is above 3.5, they may go get a confirmatory test, an actual blood draw into the vein, and get those results back in a couple of days.

But that's sort of what's happening here. Again, keep in mind there are a lot of old buildings in cities like Milwaukee, in schools, in homes, and people will develop lead poisoning as a result. In fact, Jake, let me just share this with you.

If you look back over the past couple of years, they have found that about 20 percent, about one in five children living in Milwaukee, have lead poisoning. Mostly as a result of that old paint. That's the issue they're trying to address. But for now, they're doing the best they can with testing like this, Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Dr. Sanjay Gupta in Milwaukee. Thank you so much. If you have questions about lead exposure or treatment, you can scan the QR code on your screen right now and submit your questions. Dr. Sanjay Gupta will be back later this week to answer some of your questions.

And just into our Health Lead, the Trump administration has swapped out its nominee for Surgeon General. The White House pulling the nomination of Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, whose Senate confirmation hearing was expected to begin tomorrow. Nesheiwat is a New York family physician and former "Fox News" medical contributor, and is the sister-in-law of former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Her replacement is Dr. Casey Means, a holistic medicine doctor whose prominence rose with the Make America Healthy Again movement championed by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Coming up, why President Trump says he's not happy about what he's hearing from Russia.

[17:54:43]

Plus, air traffic controllers under the radar after so many recent problems. CNN went to an air traffic control simulator to see what the job's really like.

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TAPPER: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper. This hour, who will be the next pope? The world forced to wait at least one more day as cardinals sent up the black smoke from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. We're live outside the Vatican, looking ahead to the conclave day two.

Plus, visible frustration from the White House today with Vladimir Putin. President Trump telling reporters that he's, quote, not happy about the state of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, just hours after Vice President J.D. Vance accused Russia of asking for too much to stop the fighting. But does the Kremlin care?

Also, new audio of yet another incident at Newark International Airport in New Jersey, this one back in November as that airport tries to recover from the chaos and cancellations and delays stretching into its 10th day.

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And a new law going into effect today banning fluoride in --