Return to Transcripts main page

The Lead with Jake Tapper

Minnesota Shooting Suspect Arrested, Shooter Stalked His Victims; Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-MN) Is Interviewed Regarding The Shooting Incidents In Minnesota; Israel Missile Hit Iran State TV Studio; Oil Prices Drop As Trump Says Iran Wants To De-Escalate; Judge Dismisses Juror For Inconsistent Disclosures; Early Voting Underway In NYC's Dem Mayoral Primary. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired June 16, 2025 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[17:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: Alright. That's going to do it for us here in "The Arena." Thank you so much for joining us today. Thanks to our panel for being here as well. Phil Mattingly is standing by for the "The Lead." And Phil, Happy belated Father's Day to you.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Thank you very much my friend, to Matt as well. Kasie, we look for you back in "The Arena" tomorrow.

HUNT: See you soon.

MATTINGLY: Welcome to "The Lead." I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. We are following two big breaking stories. First, in our "World Lead," the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran with both sides expanding their attacks as the conflict enters its fourth day. Earlier today, Israel struck the headquarters of Iranian state TV while the anchors were live on air. You can see it right there. We're going to take you to the Middle East in just moments.

But first, breaking in our "National Lead," quote, "the stuff of nightmares." That's how the Minnesota acting U.S. attorney today described the horrifying actions by Vance Boelter, the suspect in the Minnesota lawmaker shootings.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSEPH THOMPSON, ACTING U.S. ATTORNEY, DISTRICT OF MINNESOTA: Boelter stalked his victims like prey. He went to their homes, held (inaudible) out as a police officer, and shot them in cold blood. And this was a political assassination.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Police today releasing new images. This one allegedly showing Boelter disguised as a police officer and this ominous image, police say, it's a law enforcement image showing Boelter outside the home of Minnesota State Congresswoman Melissa Hortman and her husband, who he is accused of shooting and killing. He's also accused of shooting and injuring Minnesota State Senator John Hoffman and his wife. But today, we learned the suspect visited two more homes, four in total. First, stopping at state Senator Hortman's house then stopping at the home of a state representative who was thankfully not home.

At the third stop, the home of another state senator, Boelter was actually approached by a New Hope police officer who tried to speak to him thinking he was a police officer. The suspect then moved on to his fourth stop, the home of Representative Hortman. Officials say a different police units spotted him, but he still managed to shoot his way into the house killing Hortman and her husband.

Here is a look at the face mask police say Boelter abandoned while he was on the run. This afternoon, the suspect appearing in court for the first time since he was captured yesterday. He's facing multiple charges including first degree murder. CNN's Danny Freeman has been on the ground in Minnesota. He has this closer look at the suspect and how police say he meticulously planned these horrific crimes.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANNY FREEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Terrifying new information about the brutal killings of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband and the attempted killings of another lawmaker and his wife.

THOMPSON: It is no exaggeration to say that his crimes are the stuff of nightmares.

FREEMAN (voice-over): The Department of Justice saying the morning, 57-year-old Vance Boelter allegedly murdered State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, and allegedly tried to kill State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette. He also visited two other state lawmakers' homes with intent to kill them.

THOMPSON: He researched his victims and their families. He conducted surveillance of their homes and took notes about the location of their homes.

FREEMAN (voice-over): Boelter first went to state Senator Hoffman's home in a black SUV with a fake license plate that read police, court documents said. He disguised himself as a police officer wearing a silicone mask seen here captured on a doorbell camera.

THOMPSON: Boelter knocked on senator Hoffman's front door and repeatedly shouted, this is the police. Open the door. When Boelter lowered his flashlight, which he had shined in their face, they realized that he was not a police officer. They shouted out, you're not a cop. You're not a police officer.

FREEMAN (voice-over): Authorities say the suspect then went to another lawmaker's home and rang the doorbell, but that lawmaker was on vacation. Boelter then continued to a third lawmaker's home, but appeared to hesitate as police were already checking on local leaders by then. Finally, at state Representative Hortman's home, authorities say police found Boelter, gunfire erupted, and Boelter had to abandon his car and an arsenal of weapons.

MARK BRULEY, BROOKLYN PARK POLICE CHIEF: Had they not foiled the plan, you know, essentially took his vehicle away from him, which devolved all his maps, all his names, all his weaponry, I would be very scared what it would look like over the next few hours had we not done that.

FREEMAN (voice-over): Minnesota law enforcement officers then began what they call the largest manhunt in state history, which led them to rural Sibley County, roughly 50 miles from the crime scenes. New federal court documents state while he was on the run, Boelter texted his family. "Dad went to war last night. I don't want to say more because I don't want to implicate anybody."

[17:05:58]

But with the help of a resident's trail camera, drones, and infrared technology, Boelter was taken into custody without incident.

UNKNOWN: Can you speak to why investigators believe he carried out this attack and for how long he may have been planning these attacks?

THOMPSON: Well, it's pretty clear from the evidence that he's been planning these attacks for quite some time. There's voluminous writings, as you've seen in the reporting, that were found both in his car and his house about his planning, lists of names and individuals. Obviously, his primary motive was to go out and murder people. They were all elected officials. They were all Democrats.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FREEMAN: And, Phil, we got a statement today from state Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, who both survived the shooting. It reads in part, "John and I are both incredibly lucky to be alive. There's never a place for senseless political violence and loss of life. We are devastated by the loss of Melissa and Mark Hortman, and our hearts go out to all those who knew and loved them both. We're always at our best when we unite together."

Phil, Boelter's next federal court date to face these murder charges scheduled for the end of next week.

MATTINGLY: Danny Freeman for us, thanks so much. Let's break this down now with CNN chief law enforcement and intelligence analyst John Miller. John, the depth of the preparation, the scale of the surveillance here to go along with the names that have been uncovered in this process, it's stunning to listen to them walk through it. What did it tell you?

JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT & INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: What it told me is this is a person, and we've seen several of these in recent times, behind these people involved in politically motivated attacks, who, you know, we have this myth that, things turned on him in life and he just snapped. He by no means snapped, like most of these offenders according to the FBI's behavioral sciences studies, most of them are in a slow boil that takes a long time of planning.

So what did he do? You know, he subscribed to those services that you can subscribe to online by paying a relatively small amount of money that will give you information on people's personal information: home address, cell phone numbers, home numbers, all kinds of information. Then he ordered the mask from a different online company that would make him appear to be an individual with a shaved head, which he used in the attacks.

Then he ordered additional ammunition, and you know he had a number of weapons, three AK-47 style rifles in the car, a Beretta 92F, a semi- automatic pistol that was used in the shooting. So a lot of prep went into this in terms of equipment and data, but then there was the work, Phil, I mean, he went out to the locations, the Garmin mapping device in his car shows him traveling to four of these locations in advance of the events that happened, meaning he did pre-operational surveillance.

What's the way in? What's the way out? How many escape routes are they? Which is the best place to sit in order to observe the house with -- from multiple entrances?

MATTINGLY: When the suspect reached his third stop of the night, again, we were all listening to this press conference live earlier today. Had no concept that there were two additional houses that this individual, the suspect had gone to where he did not make contact with people.

But the third stop of the night, the home of an unnamed state senator in New Hope, officials say a New Hope police officer tried to speak to the suspect thinking he was another officer. The suspect did not respond, just stared ahead, and the suspect left as other officers arrived. I'm curious what you make made of that interaction.

MILLER: So I really stopped short on that one. So the officer is directed to respond there because they know there's been an attack involving gunfire at the home of another elected official. She's supposed to check up on this state senator and make sure that that state senator is okay. When she rolls up at her patrol car, she sees what appears to be an unmarked police vehicle with a light bar on the top, and she says, well, it looks like somebody else is already here first, keeping an eye on the house.

Now, it's a relatively small town, you know all the other cops and police cars in town, but you know, you have to go into that officer's mind and say, well, maybe they think it's from the Minnesota Capitol Police or one of the state agencies that's been assigned to guard elected officials. But when she tries to talk to the person, pulls the car up side by side, calls out to him, the individual is just staring straight ahead and doesn't acknowledge her.

She makes the decision at that point, the police officer too, well, I'm here on a wellness check. I don't know if what? I'm trying to go inside her head, Phil. I don't know if this is a security guard who's fallen asleep, which is why he's not answering me. That does happen if you're sitting on a fixed post late at night or if he's focused on something coming over the radio, but she decides to go forward to make sure that everybody in that house is okay and calls for backup.

[17:09:57]

This is the tragedy here which is had that encounter been more direct from that place, the offender allegedly left that location and went on to the Hortman residence where people were shot and killed. I think that's something that that police agency and that officer are going to be reliving over and over again till they figure out what the decision was based on and how she came to that conclusion. And, you know, it's one of those things that is really hard to explain given so much of the good proactive work that was going on.

MATTINGLY: Yeah. Remarkable on some level, how often they seemed to be in the right places given how fast everything was moving. Last one before I let you go. Were you surprised that there was no indication this was coming given the amount of work and preparation that went into it?

MILLER: I am not, and I'll tell you why. This is an individual who had developed his own profile. He's a prolific public speaker, he's a preacher, he's been traveling to Africa, he runs a security company, he's got this outsized presence in the community. Now when you peel back those layers, most of those entities and efforts were failing, but he's not the kind of person where they say, well he was a loner, he didn't talk to anybody, he kept to himself.

And he also, like many of these offenders, Phil, compartmentalized his worlds. There was the security business which wasn't doing well, there was his preacher stuff, there was his public speaking and his leadership stuff. This was all going on behind locked doors and when they go back over it, I mean they'll have to look for leakage. Did he drop hints to other people without being specific? Did they miss something? But I'm pretty confident he was careful to keep this in the shadows till he decided to strike.

MATTINGLY: John Miller, always grateful for your expertise. Thanks so much.

MILLER: Thanks, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, with us now, Democratic Congresswoman Kelly Morrison of Minnesota. She served six years in the Minnesota legislature. Up until last year, she was colleagues with John Hoffman, who was injured, and Melissa Hortman, who was killed. Congresswoman, we are so sorry for your loss. Just to start, what can you share with us about Melissa? I saw somewhere, you referred to as a friend, a mentor. How you're processing this moment in that regard.

REP. KELLY MORRISON (D-MN): You know, it's really hard to put into words how shocked and devastated we are here in Minnesota. Melissa Hortman was one of the good ones, really one of the great ones. I think she'll go down as the most consequential speaker of the House in the history of the Minnesota House.

She was often the smartest person in the room, but you didn't know it because she was so humble and unassuming, but she was a master legislator. She was a tough negotiator. She had a wicked sense of humor. She was kind. She was a mentor to so many of us.

It is a devastating loss for our state and, of course, the loss of her husband, Mark, as well. We're so relieved that the Hoffman's, made it through surgery and we're praying for a full recovery for them. But this is a devastating time in Minnesota and I think frankly for our entire country.

MATTINGLY: I can't even imagine kind of what the process has been like for you and your colleagues with the state really writ-large over the course of the last couple of days. You know, we've seen over the course of the last few hours some of your House democratic colleagues too, I believe, at this point, who have publicly stated that they were on the list. They've been informed that they are on the list. There are reports that your name was on it as well. I'm interested. What has the process been like with law enforcement because of that over the course of the last 48 hours?

MORRISON: Well, I have to shout out our local and state and federal law enforcement. They've done just an unbelievable job. I think, you know, they've worked all of them, continuously all weekend to track this assassin down. But my day started on Saturday morning, around 6:00 when two officers from my local police department came to my door. They weren't able to be specific then, but just said someone's impersonating a police officer. There's some kind of scary things happening. Please do not answer the door to anyone.

And it was an hour or two later that I learned the devastating news about Melissa and Mark. And I have pretty much been holed up in my home since then with an officer in my driveway. So, you know, this is -- I'm grateful to them for their protection and all of the extra work, but this is not a sustainable way for us to live.

And I think it's a moment where we as a country have to say we reject political violence and we need to make sure that our elected leaders starting with the president, call it that out for what it is and say we reject political violence and everyone needs to be really careful with their rhetoric. This is not a time to make jokes about this. This is not a time to call for violence in any way.

[17:14:58]

This is not what most Americans want. And I think it's important to remember too that this is an attack on legislators, but it's really an attack on the American people because it has a chilling effect on their ability to be represented. And one of the things I really worry about is that will -- it will have a chilling effect on who will be willing to run for office. We want to make sure that good people want to participate in our democracy. This is a scary moment for our country.

MATTINGLY: Yeah. There are already so many hurdles for people to seek out public service at this point in time. This is certainly the most catastrophic to be put in place here. You know, to that point, until the point you're making about the sustainability of this or lack thereof, one of your colleagues, Hillary Scholten in Michigan, she's canceling a town hall tonight out of caution, because she was one of your colleagues, whose name was included. Going forward for you, how are you thinking about the days and weeks ahead in terms of security? What you do outside of your home or outside of the office?

MORRISON: Well, we're working with Capitol Police, of course, and local police, of course, to come up with a comprehensive plan. But I think we're at a moment where we are going to have to consider increased security for -- certainly for members of Congress and potentially for state legislators as well. It's important that they are safe and able to do their jobs on behalf of the people.

It's hard to believe that this is where we are, but we have to -- we got to do it. And I will say too, you know, I was an OB GYN before I became a politician, and so I'm really passionate about recruiting people to run for office. I think it's important that people from a variety of backgrounds get involved in the political process. And the last thing I want to see happen is this, to create another barrier for people to be willing to run.

MATTINGLY: An important message. Democratic Congresswoman Kelly Morrison of Minnesota, thank you so much for your time.

MORRISON: Thanks so much for having me.

MATTINGLY: Well, breaking news in the Middle East. Israel strikes Iranian state TV during a live broadcast as both sides expand their attacks. CNN is on the ground in the region.

And later, why a judge overseeing the Diddy trial dismissed a juror in New York today. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:20:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Yeah. Yeah. But I think we're doing pretty well. We're talking. We have a thing called the telephone, so we're talking. But it's -- it's always better to talk in person.

UNKNOWN: Mr. President (inaudible) regime change in Iran.

TRUMP: I want to see no nuclear weapon in Iran and we're well on our way to making sure that happens.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: We're back with our "World Lead." That was President Trump with Prime Minister Keir Starmer just moments ago at the G7 Summit in Canada talking about what it will take to end the fighting between Iran and Israel. Earlier today, the president told reporters he believes Iran would, quote, "like to talk" about de-escalating its conflict with Israel, noting that Iran, in his words, quote, "not winning this war." Israel started attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and top military leaders on Friday, local time Thursday evening here in the U.S. The attacks have since expanded to include Iranian oil and other military facilities. The Iranians have responded by firing waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, hitting, among other targets, Haifa and Tel Aviv. Now these are among the day's most traumatic images. Israeli hit Iranian state TV during a live broadcast.

(VIDEO PLAYING)

MATTINGLY: Israeli military says the building housing Iran state TV studios was being used by Iranian armed forces under the guise of civilian activity. Added, it sent an advance warning advising civilians to get out of the way. In Israel itself, at least 24 people have been killed and nearly 600 injured since the fighting started last week. CNN's Jeremy Diamond is in Tel Aviv where shaken residents are taking cover hearing explosions then emerging to check the damage.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is what surviving an Iranian ballistic missile attack looks like. Amid wrecked cars and scattered debris, this central Tel Aviv neighborhood engulfed in flames as rescuers arrive on the scene. For the third night in a row, Iranian ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area. We arrived minutes later as people emerged shaken but alive from their bomb shelters.

This man arrived distraught to inspect the damage to his shop. We came here and everything was destroyed, he tells me. After an hour long wait, a boyfriend's anxious wait turns into a loving embrace.

UNKNOWN: Yeah. You can feel it. It goes through you.

DIAMOND (voice-over): Even inside their shelters, people here felt the power of the blast.

UNKNOWN: Like smoke. Like really a lot strong. I had to cover my nose with a T-shirt.

DIAMOND (voice-over): And were overwhelmed by the smoke filled air as they emerged. The shock wave broke windows and damaged homes blocks away from the impact. But at the epicenter where rescue crews continue to pour in and out of the scene, it is another level of destruction altogether.

(On camera): This is the devastation caused by an Iranian ballistic missile that struck this Tel Aviv neighborhood in the early hours of this morning. And you can see all around me what that looks like. These buildings that have been torn to shreds, vehicles wrecked from the missile.

(Voice-over): At least five Iranian missiles penetrated Israeli air defenses according to Israeli rescue services, killing 10 people on Sunday night. In Iran, a widening Israeli bombardment campaign driving people to

flee the capital city as jets strike not only military and nuclear facilities, but also economic targets in residential neighborhoods.

[17:24:56]

More than 200 people have been killed in the Israeli strikes according to the Iranian Health Ministry, which says a majority of the victims are civilians. I'm scared, says this woman whose home was damaged in a strike. My heart is pounding. I felt like my heart stopped.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(On camera): And Phil, with no diplomatic off ramp in sight, this deadly tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran seems likely to continue. The Israeli prime minister tonight saying that he believes Israel has already significantly set back Iran's nuclear program saying that Israel is quote, "sending them back a very, very long time." He refused to elaborate, but he also made clear that Israel still has many more targets to strike in Iran. Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, thanks to CNN's Jeremy Diamond for that report. Joining us now is former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Sir, appreciate your time. I believe you're heading to a bunker as we speak. Can you explain what's happening right now on the ground?

NAFTALI BENNETT, FORMER ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: Yeah. What's happening is fairly standard. We get the -- every night the rockets being shot from Iran, and just now we got the sirens. So I'm going with my family to the local shelter like all Israelis do, and we're going to be safe.

MATTINGLY: Can you put the -- the cost benefit clearly decided by Israeli leaders to take the initiative in starting these strikes. Are you surprised in any way by the scale or lack thereof in the Iranian response up to this point?

BENNETT: No, it's reasonable, and it's -- the decision is the correct decision because we're taking action now that's painful. Thirty Israelis were killed, but we're taking short term pain in order to prevent long term destruction. If we didn't act, it wouldn't be regular ballistic missiles that we're going to see in two minutes here. It would be ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads.

MATTINGLY: The prime minister has laid out his scope in terms of the desired outcome here, which is elimination of any possibility of nuclear program, but also elimination, of Iran's ballistic missile capability. The short term pain --

BENNETT: That's right.

MATTINGLY: -- how long does that last?

BENNETT: As long as it's, necessary. The Israeli people are strong. We understand that this is just something we have to go through in order to remove this existential threat. Look, we have no issue with Iran. If Iran would stop wanting to destroy Israel, you know, its leader says we're going to destroy Israel.

They develop nuclear arms. They develop ballistic missiles. They stop all of this. We can have peace, can have quiet. But, unless they do that, we have to -- we have to act and this was more than the last moment. It's beyond the last moment. I mean, at this time, it's becoming fairly difficult to take out the entire nuclear program because they've already spread it across multiple locations.

MATTINGLY: That was actually what I wanted to ask you about. In terms of the goals set out by the prime minister, does the Israeli military have the capability to achieve those goals unilaterally?

BENNETT: We have meaningful capabilities. It's not going to be a 100 percent, but you know, think of it as an assembly line. And, if you take out part of the assembly line, you've done a lot. But what we're doing right now is also peeling all their defenses of the regime itself, because they're shooting all these missiles at us. So, you know, even if it's not full removal of the nuclear program, it's the best we can do and it's what we have to do.

MATTINGLY: I want to play something for you that President Trump said earlier today about Iran. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: They'd like to talk, but they should have done that before. They have to make a deal. And it's painful for both parties, but I'd say Iran is not winning this war. And they should talk, and they should talk immediately before it's too late.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Do you believe that's an option at this point?

BENNETT: Oh, yeah. I mean, if -- there is a deal to be made right now in two minutes. If they agree to basically stop doing everything, they can to destroy my country, my nation, this all goes away. What that means is, dismantling the nuclear program, dismantling the ballistic missile factories, and stopping the terror.

Just go carry on like any regular country like Belgium or Italy that don't go around trying to destroy other countries. So it's a very low threshold. That's all we're asking. We don't want to be destroyed, they want to destroy us. We cannot give in on this because we're not willing to go through a holocaust again. Not this time.

MATTINGLY: There have been reports today about a potential plan to strike the Ayatollah directly. Is that something you think should happen?

BENNETT: It's a possibility. In order to achieve our three goals, there's many ways to do it. I wouldn't take it off the table.

[17:30:00]

But there's a lot of other things that we're doing. We're, as I said, removing the -- the defenses of Iran. So now we can hit the Iranian regime, the Iranian military, and the Iranian nuclear program.

I want to make one point, though. The Iranian people are not our enemy. We respect the Iranian people. We know that they're under a horrible dictatorship. And that -- so this is not war between the Israeli people and the Iranian people, it's between Israel and this horrible regime.

MATTINGLY: Would you like to see President Trump commit to more active participation of U.S. forces?

BENNETT: Look, America's doing a lot already, helping us defend ourselves, giving us various capabilities. It's not -- I'm -- it's ours to tell President Trump what to do. President Trump looks after America's national interest, not Israel's national interest.

I will say, though, that you couldn't get a better deal than have Israel do this really tough job, this thankless job of -- of removing this threat. You see, if there was an Israel around taking care of North Korea 30 years ago, you wouldn't have a nuclear North Korea. This time we're acting, so it's a pretty good deal for America.

We're not asking for boots on the ground. We're paying the price. We're getting killed. But we'll do everything necessary. Our pilots are right now over Iran attacking those facilities. At the end of the day, it's President Trump's decision.

MATTINGLY: Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, appreciate your time. Please stay safe, sir. Thank you.

BENNETT: I'm going to go into the shelter right now. Bye-bye.

MATTINGLY: But we are watching the skies over Tel Aviv right now, as we understand sirens are going off across Israel.

Up next, how could this conflict affect us here in the U.S.? Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:36:19]

MATTINGLY: We're back watching the skies over Tel Aviv as Israel has detected incoming Iranian missiles. We will continue to monitor. Let's go now to our Money Lead.

As oil prices dropped today after President Trump told reporters he thinks Iran would like to talk. And "The Wall Street Journal" reported the Iranians are sending signals they want to de-escalate the conflict with Israel. Crude prices jumped dramatically last week when the fighting started.

Let's bring in CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich. Vanessa, when could consumers here in the U.S. start to feel the impacts of what we're seeing in the Middle East?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS & POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: There are geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East -- Middle East. We watch oil prices very carefully, because that translates to gas prices. And that's where U.S. consumers will start to feel this conflict first.

But as you mentioned, look at oil prices. Were -- the crude oil, that is the global benchmark, falling by 2 percent today. And sort of the U.S. indicator, Brent crude, falling by over 1.5 percent. This is dramatic turnaround, obviously, from last week, where we saw oil prices plummeting at 13 percent at one point.

But here's where it gets tricky for consumers. Look at gas prices. Gas prices have been relatively low, holding steady over the past month or so. Today, $3.11 nationwide, $3.12 a month ago. A year ago, coming down substantially from $3.60. However, just a little bit of turmoil in the oil market can send prices higher.

Patrick De Haan, who is with GasBuddy, he predicts that just in the next few days, we're going to start to see a $0.10 to $0.20 rise in gas prices. And if things continue to escalate, those prices will increase even more. And why is this important, Phil? Because Iran is part of OPEC. It's part of 12 members that make up this group of the largest oil-producing nations in the world.

So you have Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela. And what we look at here is what could happen, number one, with Iran's production capabilities if their oil fields are hit. Also, Iran could choose to hold back some of its oil as a tactic in this tension, in this escalation with Israel. Two things to keep our eye on as the days progress, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Yes, critical. OPEC Plus has already been confusing enough over the course of the last couple of months with their production schedules. What are the long-term impacts if the conflict doesn't end soon?

YURKEVICH: Yes, and there is one tiny piece of land, or ocean, let's say, that we are watching very closely. This is the Strait of Hormuz. It's a 21-mile, basically 21-mile slice of ocean that is absolutely critical for oil capabilities, for oil to move throughout this region. And the concern is, among many analysts, is that Iran could choose to cut it off. And that would be incredibly problematic because 21 million barrels of oil move through that strait every single day.

So that is what analysts are watching as sort of a worst-case scenario. But Phil, look at U.S. markets today, green, green, green. What a dramatic turnaround from last week when we saw the Dow down more than 750 points, today up 300 points. This is an indication that investors are maybe a little bit hopeful that with cooling oil prices and Iran indicating that they want to, in some ways, cool off this conflict, that we see markets moving in a different direction.

But Phil, as you know, numbers change. Things change very quickly. Tomorrow's a new day. We'll see what happens.

[17:40:00]

MATTINGLY: CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich, very true. Thank you very much. Well, up next, the reason why a New York judge decided to dismiss a juror in the Diddy trial. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our Law and Justice Lead, juror number six in the Sean Combs sex trafficking case has been dismissed and is off the high profile trial, replaced by the first alternate juror. Today, a judge said the 41-year-old male juror had given inconsistencies in his disclosure forms about where he lived and with whom.

Joining me now is CNN chief legal analyst and anchor, Laura Coates. All right, Laura, the judge took the weekend before making this decision. Tell us what actually happened here.

LAURA COATES, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF LEGAL ANALYST: So this was a juror who allegedly filed out his questionnaire, said where he lived, the requirements, of course, are you have to be in the jurisdiction at the time of signing the questionnaire, be a resident of the area, in this case, Manhattan or New York.

[17:44:59]

What he said at the questionnaire time was before he told a court reporter or a court employee of some kind, I don't know what kind of person it was, and said, you know, about his life and that he'd moved in with his girlfriend or fiancee recently to a different state and was coming back and forth to the court.

This set off some alarms for the court employee or whoever he spoke to who said they then informed the judge of this very moment. This is important because it's the jury where at the inception, the defense said, we've got what's called a Batson challenge, a fancy way of saying you're trying prosecution to strike jurors based on race, which is an absolute no-go and it's unconstitutional to do so. The judge at that time said he saw no evidence of that.

The jury was at least optically diverse and there was no indication they had any nefarious reason for striking any jurors. Now, this revisits this moment in time when this now juror is being struck and the thinly veiled excuse they say in the defense to strike a black juror is what's being used here.

This is huge, monumental to have somebody who's been hearing a case for over a month, Phil, now be struck from the jury. Not because he's been communicating with somebody or against the judge's orders, but because of a statement he made that suggests that he may not still live in the jurisdiction. The defense does not want this to happen. They want the same jury to hear the same case, period.

MATTINGLY: I have a lot of other things I want to ask you about, but I'm kind of fixated on this. It was just a kind of comment on the side --

COATES: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- that kind of triggered this whole thing.

COATES: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Is it your sense that the prosecution said, all right, we have an opportunity here?

COATES: I think they saw a window and they jumped right through it. Now, why they wanted this juror off, they say it was entirely race neutral and benign reasons. But if you're the defense in this team and in this case, you want any indication you might be getting in the court, maybe a juror who's nodding, maybe you've made eye contact and say, maybe you have a thought, a preconceived notion, or maybe some idea that this person might be leaning towards your side or wanting to water a seed of reasonable doubt.

So you want what you want at that time. And the reason why, because you know, if there is a conviction, you've got an appellate right to challenge this. The judge, very aware and making a very thorough record to suggest there is nothing nefarious by this prosecution team and that this person was less than candid with the court and that's enough.

MATTINGLY: Prosecution has signaled they may be coming to an end at some point.

COATES: Yes.

MATTINGLY: What do they need to do with the time they have remaining?

COATES: Imagine a jigsaw puzzle, Phil. They have maybe the edges filled in. A jury needs to be spoon fed the pieces to know what the actual image is until they've painted that complete picture. They have a window for the defense to walk through and say, you haven't heard enough about this issue. Remember, this is a RICO case, sex trafficking, prostitution. They have to spoon feed it.

MATTINGLY: Laura Coates, thanks for coming in. Always appreciate you.

Well, with early voting underway in New York, the mayoral race is shaping up to be the old versus the new, but what role could rank choice voting play in this election? We're going to take a look, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:52:06]

MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, New York City's ranked choice Democratic mayoral primary election is next Tuesday. Eleven candidates are running and former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is seen as one of the leading contenders, running against a pack of progressive challengers. But as CNN's Gloria Pazmino reports, the city's ranked voting system could be a potential wildcard in the race.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): With only a few days to go until New York City's mayoral primary election, the race is split between the old and the new.

ANDREW CUOMO, FORMER NEW YORK GOVERNOR: We have to turn New York City around.

PAZMINO (voice-over): A potential political comeback by former governor, Andrew Cuomo, running on his decades of experience and ability to take on President Donald Trump. And state assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist.

REP. ZOHRAN MAMDANI (D-NY): Let's win this thing.

PAZMINO (voice-over): Whose energetic campaign is capturing young voters with a heavy online presence and is supported by progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

MAMDANI: We have a choice between Andrew Cuomo, funded by the same billionaires who put Donald Trump back in the White House, and our campaign, who will tax billionaires to make the city affordable.

PAZMINO (voice-over): More than 66,000 Democrats have cast their ballots so far during the early voting period. At this Manhattan location, voters were split.

PAZMINO: Do you have a favorite?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Zohran for me.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's more of the people's choice.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I voted for Cuomo.

PAZMINO (voice-over): It's a crowded field with 11 candidates running in the ranked choice Democratic primary. Cuomo and Mamdani are seen as leading contenders.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Instead of picking only one favorite, you rank your choices. Put your top pick as number one, your second favorite as number two, and so on.

PAZMINO (voice-over): Everyone's number one pick is counted. If one candidate gets more than half the votes, they win. But if no one gets a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is out, and those votes go to the next choice on each of those ballots. The process keeps going until one candidate breaks the 50 percent threshold. Candidates are strategically forming alliances.

MAMDANI: You go first.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, you go first.

MAMDANI: Let's do it together. We're cross-endorsing.

PAZMINO (voice-over): It could lead to a win for Mamdani, even if Cuomo is initially leading when all first choice votes are counted, and Cuomo is feeling the heat.

CUOMO: He's accomplished nothing. Three bills are all he passed.

PAZMINO (voice-over): Mamdani is focusing on Cuomo's controversies and the sexual harassment scandals that forced him out of office in 2021.

CUOMO: If I step aside.

PAZMINO (voice-over): Cuomo has denied the allegations.

MAMDANI: To Mr. Cuomo, I have never had to resign in disgrace. I have never cut Medicaid.

PAZMINO (voice-over): One person missing from this primary, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is running as an independent in the general election in November.

MAYOR ERIC ADAMS (D), NEW YORK CITY: I turned this city around. They don't want to admit it, that's fine, but the voters are going to acknowledge that.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY: Our thanks to Gloria Pazmino for that report.

[17:54:59]

Well, up next, there's already Trump shoes, watches, Bibles. Now the Trump Organization is announcing its latest venture. We'll explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. This hour, President Trump is meeting with key allies as the United States moves more ships to the Middle East and Israel and Iran launched new strikes. Is there an end to the conflict in sight? The President weighs in on potential negotiations and U.S. involvement.

Plus, the suspect accused of shooting two Democratic lawmakers and their spouses making his first court appearance this afternoon. What we're learning about his arrest and what he allegedly texted his family after the attacks. The clues investigators are revealing as they search for a motive.

[18:00:05]

Also, first came the Trump Bible and then the Trump sneakers.