Return to Transcripts main page

The Lead with Jake Tapper

Israel, Iran Launch More Strikes As Diplomats Met In Geneva; Iranian Source: Iran Did Not Agree To End Uranium Enrichment; IDF: Half Of Iran's Missile Launchers Are Destroyed; Judge Orders Mahmoud Khalil Freed On Bail; Trump Says DNI Gabbard Is "Wrong" On Iran Nuclear Intelligence; Ex-Assistant Testifies He Bought Drugs, Set Up Hotel Rooms; Documentary Gives Behind-The-Scenes Look At Hostage Negotiations. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired June 20, 2025 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Prince, is he? If you're going to put Michael Jackson, would you not put Prince?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Of course, right.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Like -- so -- so --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I agree.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: -- I mean -- so I have to say I don't understand what the --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But otherwise are going to want Prince in their list.

GARCIA-NAVARRO: Right. But that --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right? I'll add Prince in my rough list.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What about Mariah? But isn't -- but isn't Mariah Carey an R&B singer or a pop artist?

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: I don't know. Phil Mattingly, do you have an opinion about this?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I take Lulu side on this one. I embrace the debate. Kasie, we'll see you back in "The Arena" next week.

HUNT: Sounds good. Have a good weekend.

[17:00:27]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Could diplomacy be on the horizon? Might not be that simple. The Lead starts right now.

Talks between European and Iranian officials just wrapped up. And Iran says diplomacy could easily be achieved if President Trump tells Israel to stop striking its country. The president just weighed in on that. I'll discuss with Trump's former national security adviser in moments.

And breaking news, we're standing by to see Mahmoud Khalil go free. That's just a few hours after a federal judge ordered the release of the Columbia grad, the student who the Trump administration says had detained for months over his role in pro-Palestinian demonstrations. Plus, Diddy's assistant takes the stand as the prosecution is close to resting its case in Diddy's sex trafficking trial, the shocking testimony his ex-assistant gave about his boss's alleged drug habits and party.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. We begin with breaking news in our world lead our on the Israel-Iran conflict. At today's talks in Geneva between European leaders and Iran's foreign minister, Iran said it will only meet the U.S. for diplomacy talks if Israel stops striking. President Trump this afternoon, fresh out of a meeting with his national security team, was asked if that was actually plausible.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, I think it's very hard to make that request right now. If somebody's winning, it's a little bit harder to do than if somebody's losing. But we're ready, willing and able and we've been speaking to Iran and we'll see what happens.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, the goal of the talks in Geneva was to try and find some type of diplomatic pathway out of this ongoing conflict. Of course, the clock, it's ticking. On President Trump's timeline, he says he will allow about two weeks for diplomacy before deciding whether to join Israel in striking Iran. So while it's unclear what comes next on that front, what is clear from these talks is that Iran wants to continue enriching uranium, the process which leads to building a nuclear weapon. And for the U.S. that is a red line.

Now, on top of this, no other promising signs of de-escalation as fresh Iranian strikes in Israel have injured more than two dozen people today. Paramedics and eyewitnesses describe scenes of people bleeding in the streets in Haifa. An emergency official there saying one woman died of a heart attack while shelter.

And we start things off with Kristen Holmes at the White House.

Now, Kristen, we know President Trump was in that meeting with his national security team today, how closely is the White House monitoring these Geneva talks between Iran and European leaders?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, they're monitoring them incredibly closely. The U.S. has a lot invested in how that meeting went. Now, we did hear from Donald Trump, who was asked how he believed the meeting between the Europeans and the Iranians went, and he said he didn't think the Europeans did much, that Iran wanted to talk to the U.S. not the Europeans. But that's not exactly the case here. Just to break down how invested the United States is in this, the foreign secretary from the United Kingdom was here at the White House yesterday meeting with Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy ahead of him, then flying to Geneva to sit down with the foreign secretary of the foreign minister of Iran for these talks. They were delivering a direct message from Washington, from the White House. And Washington, the White House does want to sit down directly with Iran, as you said. They said, Iran, that their conditions were a cease fire, essentially. Donald Trump saying he's likely not to do that. So where does that leave things now?

Well, he's also asked about this two week deadline. He said that's a maximum, that he might act beforehand depending on how all of this goes. And when asked specifically why he gave this extra two weeks on top of the 60 days he had already given Iran, he said it was time for people to come to their senses. But again, there seems to be a red line here in which neither side wants to cross when it comes to enriching uranium or not enriching uranium. So how exactly we move forward?

That's the big question here because as we know and as we've reported, President Trump is looking for an off ramp. He is looking for an option that is not getting the United States deeply involved in this conflict between Iran and Israel, particularly getting them involved for a long period of time. That's one of the things that he promised he wouldn't do on the campaign trail. But in addition to that, we know he actually doesn't want to engage in this. So how we move forward from here, that is the big question.

[17:05:01]

MATTINGLY: Yes, there's no question about that. A lot of things to play out over the course of the coming days. Kristen Holmes for us at the White House, thanks so much.

Let's turn now to CNN's Jeremy Diamond in Tel Aviv.

Jeremy, obviously a ton of focus on Geneva throughout the course of this day, but this was all happening with the backdrop of new strikes and more damage in this ongoing conflict. What was happening on the ground?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right. I mean, even as President Trump is pointing out that Israel is certainly winning this conflict and it is clear that Israel has the upper hand in terms of the amount of destruction and the strategic successes that they've had in their military campaign in Iran, Iran is still showing an ability to get through Israel's vaunted air defense system and actually cause quite a bit of destruction. We saw several missiles in a barrage of more than 20 that got through Israel's air defense system and struck parts of southern and northern Israel. The most significant strike that we saw today was in Haifa, near the Haifa port, which may have been the intended target here of the Iranians, but instead hitting a civilian area, injuring dozens of people who were in the area, causing damage to a nearby mosque as well. There were no fatalities, and that is probably more a credit to Israel's bomb shelters and advanced air raid warnings than it is to the intentions of the Iranians here.

But all of this is coming as the Israelis are waiting to see when and whether President Trump will make a decision to join in and deliver what Israeli officials hope will be the final blow to Iran's nuclear program. That seems very, very uncertain at this stage, as President Trump is giving way for more diplomacy in the coming weeks. And so, we heard the Israeli prime minister make clear that he trusts President Trump's judgment. He has been very, very cautious to not pressure President Trump too much to join in on those strikes in Iran. But ultimately, the Israelis are going to have a calculus of their own to make.

And this delay by President Trump or this additional time that he is giving for diplomacy is putting the Israelis in a bit of a strategic bind. At which point do they decide to go it alone and carry out perhaps some of the riskier options that they may have for attempting to destroy that Fordo nuclear facility that is buried deep beneath a mountain in Iran. We know that the Israelis have looked into a variety of potential options for that, but none of them are as guaranteed. And they are certainly a lot riskier than the United States using its B-2 bombers and dropping that massive 30,000 pound bomb on that facility. Phil.

MATTINGLY: Jeremy Diamond for us with a unique perspective, someone who covered President Trump for many years here in Washington now talking to Israeli officials regularly in Tel Aviv, thanks so much.

Well, now to Iran where CNN's Fred Pleitgen is the first Western journalist to enter Iran since the latest conflict with Israel began. Today, Fred brings us a look at protests across Iran and an interview with an Iranian presidency spokesperson who says the U.S. can end this conflict with just one call.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Death to Israel chants to a massive crowd after Tehran's Friday prayers. The streets packed for a protest against Israel's aerial campaign, but also the policies of the Trump administration.

We will punch the United States and Israel in the mouth, he says. Trump, you are threatening my leader, this woman says, don't you know my nation believes death is sweeter than honey? What do you have, Israel, he says, you have nothing. You are occupiers, unreligious, you're killing people, killing women, you kill everyone, you're terrorists.

People here vowing not to back down as the conflict escalates and President Trump ponders U.S. involvement.

PLEITGEN: As you can see, thousands of people have turned up here in central Tehran. They're chanting down with the USA, down with Israel. And they're warning if the Trump administration gets involved in the standoff between Israel and Iran, it will lead to direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. PLEITGEN (voice-over): As Israel continues to hit targets inside Iran and the Iranians answer with missile barrages striking Israeli territory, Iran's foreign minister met with European nations.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are entitled, tasked and determined to defend our territorial integrity, national sovereignty and security with all force. This is our inherent right.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Iran's leadership says air attacks are unifying people against Israel. A member of Iran's presidency calling on President Trump to rein the Israelis in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Trump can easily stop the war by only one telephone to Israelis. But I don't know why he didn't do that.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): With public support seemingly growing, Iran's leadership says it's ready for a long term confrontation with Israel and possibly the United States as well.

[17:10:05]

Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Tehran.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY: Our thanks to Fred Pleitgen for that reporting from inside Iran.

Let's now discuss with Admiral James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO.

Sir, really appreciate your time. Just to start with the capability of both sides in this moment. I think we're on day seven now. Obviously this is a time window for potential diplomatic outcomes. The -- your understanding of kind of the force posture from both sides right now, how sustainable is this tempo in the days ahead as they wait for diplomacy to break out?

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS (RET.), CNN SENIOR MILITARY ANALYST: Oh, I think this could go for certainly days and probably weeks. Israel has a huge bank of targets they can go after because, Phil, they're not after just the nuclear program at this point, they really want to destroy the ballistic missile production. That's what's hurting them right now. They also want to take away command and control. They'll probably start going after maritime assets.

They may go after energy grids. So there's plenty of targets. The Israelis have plenty of bombs. They have a very capable air force. Over on the Iranian side, it's not a very good picture.

They are running out of what remaining air defense capability they have, I'd say 80 percent has been degraded. So they are the ones, in my view, under pressure here. I think they're going to have to, if they want a diplomatic solution, simply go to the United States and say, yes, let's start talks even if this tit for tat between Israel and Iran goes on. MATTINGLY: What's your sense of if the dynamics for the leverage positions have changed from, you know, years of these types of talks that often end up leaving, as officials from both parties have told me over the last couple of days, very frustrated with Iran's ability to kind of draw things out and make things complicated. The idea of no uranium enrichment at all, which has always been a red line for the Iranians, is that a plausible outcome here given the pressure they are under?

STAVRIDIS: I think it is. Although the chances of getting to that diplomatically are going down. If you wanted me to put a percentage on it, I think there's probably a 70 percent chance. Ultimately the U.S. conducts these strikes and takes out the enrichment facilities at Fordo. I think there's still a 30 percent chance, Phil, of getting to it diplomatically.

But it's pretty clear President Trump is not going to come off the demand that Iran not control an actual enrichment facility, no enrichment of its own. If they need enriched uranium to run peaceful nuclear power plants that can be provided to them under supervision. But I think we're probably headed toward either a military strike to take away that capability led by the United States in that case, or the Iranians come to the table and give it up.

MATTINGLY: If the outcome is the former, how much certainty can you have about the kind of, OK, then what question that I think everyone naturally asks at this point in time, is it just a one night strike? Is it -- how are people thinking through this if you're in the Situation Room right now?

STAVRIDIS: Yes, if you're in the Situation Room or you're in the Pentagon and you've got 40,000 U.S. troops on ships, aircraft, soldiers all around the Gulf region, you're very concerned about the day after even a successful strike that takes out for now. I think the presumption that the Iranians will at that point curl up into a fetal ball and say, oh, you are right all along, we can't enrich uranium, I don't think that's how they're going to respond. They still will have cards to play. They'll still have close to a thousand ballistic missiles. Hezbollah has thousands of ballistic missiles and surface to surface missiles.

The Iranians have pretty well groomed terror cells. They could go after American citizens living all around the Gulf. They could try and close the Strait of Hormuz with mines or by sinking merchant ships in it. They would still have a whole series of cards to play. And I think if the United States launched that series of attacks, we would see them come back at us.

That would put further pressure on that vertical ladder of escalation. And then you really are trending toward a regional war involving the United States. I think that ultimately is what President Trump wants to avoid.

MATTINGLY: Yes, there's no question about that. Real quick, before I let you go, the idea -- Prime Minister Netanyahu said eliminate the nuclear program and eliminate their ballistic missile capabilities and stock. On the latter, is that possible? I mean, the scale of that effort would seem to be pretty dramatic to me. It was kind of a new addition to red line necessities.

[17:15:17]

How long would that take?

STAVRIDIS: It's a good observation on your part. It would take -- if the Iranians were cooperating, it would still take months to take care of that capability. If it's going to be done kinetically by the Israelis alone, it would take several months, trending towards six months, to really grind away the ability to reproduce those ballistic missiles. So that's a big task that's kind of been added to the menu in recent days.

MATTINGLY: Always grateful for your perspective, Retired Admiral James Stavridis, thank you, sir.

STAVRIDIS: Thanks, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, we are standing by for the release of Columbia graduate student Mahmoud Khalil, who has been held for three months in an ICE detention facility in Louisiana. Why that judge says his arrest was unconstitutional. And more stunning accusations in the Sean Combs trial. What the jury heard today about how Diddy's assistant bought drugs for his boss. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:20:26]

MATTINGLY: Breaking news in our national lead, we are awaiting the release of Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia University grad and Palestinian activists arrested by ICE more than three months ago. A judge today ordered Khalil to be freed on bail. He had been held in a detention facility in Louisiana, away from his wife and away from his newborn son. He's also been the subject of an intense debate over the power of the Trump administration to hold pro-Palestinian demonstrators. Let's go straight to CNN's Gloria Pazmino, who has been following Khalil's case since the very beginning.

Gloria, what do we know about what happens next here?

GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, at this hour, one of Khalil's attorneys who is there with him down in Louisiana is trying to figure out the logistics of his release, which I'm told could happen at some point later this evening. And it's possible that he might be back in New York City this weekend. Now, as you mentioned, he's being held in a very rural part of Louisiana, so it will take some time just for them simply to get back and forth to the airport after he is officially released. But I want to mention, Phil, that the judge in this case just a few hours ago during the bail hearing, called it highly, highly unusual to continue to detain a legal permanent of the United States who his lawyers have argued is not a danger to the community and was unlikely to flee. In fact, today, Judge Michael Farbiarz said that, quote, it is that Khalil, quote, "it is" -- that Khalil, quote, "Is not a danger to the community. Period, full stop."

Now let's step back a moment, Phil, because Mahmoud Khalil was the first in a string of detentions by the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, which targeted pro-Palestinian protesters on U.S. university campuses. And since then, since then which -- since that push, which started three months ago, many of the students have actually been released, all of them except Khalil. In the meantime, he has missed his graduation, the birth of his son, and he's been kept away from his families and his attorneys.

Now, two weeks ago, the judge in this case said that he was going to order Khalil's release, but the government appealed that decision, saying that there was an outstanding charge accusing Khalil of lying on his green card application, something that his lawyers have denied. Now, his lawyers renewed their request for the court to issue bail, and that's exactly what happened here today. Khalil will be released. He said that the outstanding matter is a civil matter in immigration court, certainly not a criminal matter. And we are expecting to hear some detail about the conditions for his release, including the surrender of his passport and travel conditions.

Here's what his wife, Dr. Noor Abdallah, said upon learning about his release. Quote, "We know this ruling does not begin to address the injustices the Trump administration has brought upon our family and so many others." She also said, "Today we are celebrating Mahmoud coming back to New York to be reunited with our little family and the community that has supported us since that day he was unjustly taken for speaking out for Palestinian freedom." Phil.

MATTINGLY: Gloria Pazmino, thanks so much.

Let's bring in now Donna Lieberman, executive director of the New York ACLU, which is helping represent Mahmoud Khalil.

Donna, appreciate your time. Just to start off, what more do we know right now about when a release might happen at this point?

DONNA LIEBERMAN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NY ACLU: We know he's been ordered released today, and we know that the release is being processed, but we don't know exactly when that will happen.

MATTINGLY: Before this decision today or before the order today by the judge, he had been the only prominent pro-Palestinian demonstrator still in ICE custody, at least that I'm aware of. The State Department had claimed he posed a threat to national security. The use of that claim seems to have fallen apart in almost every case at this point. Is that a fair assessment?

LIEBERMAN: That's right. The -- the Trump administration was trying to use this antiquated statute that was little used historically to justify detaining and deporting Mahmoud Khalil and others because they were ostensibly a threat to our national -- to our foreign policy by virtue of lawful political expression. And the judge category -- unequivocally rejected the government's claim and said that holding him on these grounds was unconstitutional.

[17:25:03]

So today's ruling -- last week's ruling and today's ruling combined are a vindication of Khalil's rights. They're a vindication of the First Amendment and our democracy. But the case is not over. We still have to get all the charges dismissed, dumped. These are trumped up charges, literally, figuratively.

And we need to make sure that we -- that the Trump administration gets the message, and they should with today's ruling, that you cannot deport people based on lawful political expression. You cannot retaliate against people for exercising First Amendment rights, whether they're citizens or not.

MATTINGLY: I wanted to ask you about kind of what happens next because it was striking the judge today saying, and I'm paraphrasing here, but based on what he had seen there's at least something to the underlying claim that has been made in his defense that this was all about just trying to crack down on speech on some level, which was notable. But there is still a case that's not over. He faces charges that he failed to give required information on his green card application, still potentially faces deportation. What's your sense of where that goes?

LIEBERMAN: Well, you know, the team of lawyers is going to fight vigorously to get all the charges dismissed. But this will play out in court in a way that is consistent with our system of justice. Mr. Khalil will be free. He'll be with his community. He'll be with his wife, his new baby.

And he will not be subjected to additional irreparable harm as a result of Trump's retaliatory campaign to make him a symbol and to deport him. So the case will go on and we're hopeful that we will be successful. We're confident because he is right. He has every right to be here. He's a lawful permanent resident.

He's got a green card. And he has done nothing wrong to justify the treatment.

MATTINGLY: We will certainly be watching every step of the way. Donna Lieberman, New York ACLU, thank you so much.

LIEBERMAN: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Well, up next, someone who's been in the room with President Trump before major foreign policy decisions, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Trump's former national security adviser, joins us to discuss the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:31:54]

MATTINGLY: We're back with our World Lead, and President Trump this afternoon saying his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, is flat-out wrong when it comes to Iran's nuclear capabilities.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What intelligence do you have that Iran is building a nuclear weapon? Your intelligence community has said they have no evidence that they are at this point.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, then my intelligence community is wrong. Who in the intelligence community said that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.

TRUMP: She's wrong.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: I want to bring in retired Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster. He served as National Security Advisor during President Trump's first term. Also the author of "At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House." I want to start with what you just heard, General. What did you make of that on a personnel basis, given your experience?

LT. GENERAL H.R. MCMASTER, U.S. ARMY (RET.): Well, Phil, I -- I agree with President Trump. And, you know, sometimes it doesn't take a really sophisticated intelligence analyst to tell you what's right before your eyes. I mean, you know, there's no reason to enrich uranium above 20 percent unless you're going for a bomb.

They're enriching to 60 percent. You know, the Fordow site itself, this deep buried site we've been talking about, what's the -- what's the reason they built a deep buried, 300 feet underground secret site? Well, it's to get a bomb. And then even the Iranians themselves have said before, you know, when -- when President Trump pulled out of the -- the really bad Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran then announced, hey, we're restarting the weapons program that we denied we ever had.

So, Phil, it's kind of obvious to me that Iran has been on a path to -- to a nuclear weapon. And I do believe the reports, not only from Israelis, but other intelligence sources, including the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Association, that -- that -- that Iran was sprinting to -- to build a weapon.

MATTINGLY: If that's the case, and given President Trump's longstanding, from the very beginning of his political career, red line about Iran never getting a nuclear weapon, why the hesitation? And I'm not saying that as criticism. I'm just -- why -- why wouldn't he hit the green light?

MCMASTER: Well, I think the main reason is to give the -- give the Iranians a chance. You know, President Trump is not capricious about the use of force. I think actually it's -- it's a good move. I mean, put it back on the Iranians. And -- and also, maybe to let sink in for a minute, the devastating effects of -- of Israel's attacks on -- on Iran. I mean, I think it's -- it's quite likely that the Iranian leadership doesn't know what to do because their leadership is so fragmented.

I mean, it's really extraordinary, Phil, that -- that really all the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was taken out, 14 scientists. You've got the Supreme Leader, I think, is, you know, is in a bunker and has seeded, you know, running, you know, the country, to the degree that they're doing that, to the Guardian Council.

So I think there's a great deal of confusion. President Trump has maybe given that a moment to take a deep breath and say, OK, I mean, this is the only option they have available, is to give up enrichment. You know, Phil, there are 23 countries in the world who have a peaceful nuclear program and who do not enrich uranium. So there's no reason for Iran to have to enrich uranium.

[17:35:11]

MATTINGLY: You make a really important point about how extraordinary. I think everything has been moving so fast. The operation that we saw in the first night and how it's continued to evolve in the days since and Iran's lack of command and control for a period of time and the way their supply chain has been targeted over the course of the last several days. Are you convinced at this point Israel has clearly demonstrated they have control of the skies, that if there is a U.S. operation that they don't have the capability anymore to take down U.S. assets?

MCMASTER: Well, I wouldn't say no capability at all, Phil, because, you know, you don't know what maybe they've kept, you know, quiet or turned off in terms of radar systems, that sort of thing. You remember, you know, we had tremendous air -- air supremacy over, you know, over Serbia, you know, years ago in the 90s and they even succeeded in shooting down a stealth aircraft.

So I think you just -- you never want to get too cocky about it. Of course, any strike that the U.S. conducts will be part of a much larger strike package that includes all sorts of electronic countermeasures, counter radar capabilities. So it wouldn't just be, you know, a B-2 bomber going in to -- to -- to drop, you know, the massive ordnance penetrator.

MATTINGLY: Do you have a sense right now of the -- the kind of as somebody who came up during the Iraq war, you served in the Iraq war, you were a deeply respected voice throughout the Iraq war and in its aftermath, the kind of second and third order effects here. What happens when that strike happens, when that kinetic package is actually launched the next day or the day after that?

MCMASTER: Well, Phil, we know -- we know what's in Iran's playbook. If Iran does try to lash out against the United States, what the -- what -- what they could do is attack U.S. sites and facilities and personnel in the region. They've done that for years, going back to the Marine barracks and -- and the embassy bombing in 1983 in -- in Lebanon, the Khobar Towers bombing in '96. And they've conducted hundreds of attacks against us, Phil, through their proxy forces just -- just in recent years.

Of course, you alluded to the Iraq war. Iran is responsible through their proxies of -- of killing about 600 American soldiers with these roadside bombs that were manufactured in Iran and provided to their proxy forces in Iraq. So attacks against our forces is something they could do. Attacks on shipping, right? We've seen them do that through the Houthis and we saw them do that from '80 to '88 during the tanker war.

They could try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which about 20 percent of the world's energy flows goes through. They could conduct missile attacks, as they're doing against Israel which they -- or -- or unmanned aerial systems and drone attacks like they did against the Saudi oil -- oil fields in 2019. They may be, I don't know, they have -- they might have a few cyber arrows in their -- in their quiver.

But also, Phil, what they could do is activate their worldwide terrorist network, which really went global in the 1990s with assassinations in Europe. Remember the 1992 and 1994 bombings in Argentina, the blowing up of a Panamanian aircraft around that same time in the -- in the early 90s. So there's -- there are responses that -- that Iran can -- can make.

But I think, you know, the -- the regime's survival is what's at stake now. How much longer, the question is, will the -- will the Iranian people put up with this regime whose permanent hostility, you know, to us, the great Satan, Israel, its Arab neighbors, have made the Iranian people destitute in a country that has tremendous resources, including tremendous human capital within that country.

MATTINGLY: Yes, it's extraordinarily dynamic and really helpful context that you lay out, as always, sir. Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, really appreciate your time. Thank you.

MCMASTER: Thank you, Phil.

[17:39:01]

MATTINGLY: Well, more explosive allegations in the prosecution of Sean "Diddy" Combs, plus a surprise twist with the trial timeline. What the defense told the court, that's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Back with our Law and Justice Lead, a key member of Sean "Diddy" Combs' entourage took the stand today in the sex trafficking trial against the music mogul. Diddy's former assistant, Brendan Paul, says he was told to, quote, move like SEAL Team Six when carrying out tasks for Combs, including getting drugs or setting up hotel rooms.

Kara Scannell was in the Manhattan courtroom for this and has been throughout the entirety of this trial for the most part. What stood out to you in this testimony?

KARA SCANNELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So Brendan Paul was on the witness stand today and he did testify that he bought drugs for Combs between five and 10 times that included marijuana, ketamine, cocaine, and ecstasy. He also described to the jury how he would be reimbursed by Combs' security and they saw some record that showed he was sought reimbursement for $5,000 for one of those stretches.

This all goes to count one that Combs is charged with a racketeering conspiracy. He did also testify that he helped set up those hotel room nights and also cleaned them up. All relating to Combs' former girlfriend who testified at the trial under the pseudonym Jane.

But on cross examination he was asked if Jane ever appeared hesitant or apprehensive around those nights. Paul testified absolutely not. He also said he never saw anything that he thought was illegal or inappropriate. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Kara, as somebody who has watched every single minute of this knows it inside and out. For people who haven't been paying attention every single day, give your sense of where things are right now.

SCANNELL: So prosecutors are about to rest their case. They said they could rest as soon as Monday. And over six weeks of testimony they have called nearly three dozen witnesses all to go to these charges. The count one racketeering conspiracy which involves drugs, it involves bribery.

[17:45:07]

We heard testimony from the security guard at the intercontinental hotel who said that Combs had paid him $100,000 for surveillance video of Combs hitting Cassie Ventura, his then girlfriend. They've also heard from several former assistants and also from some of these government witnesses that are trying to tie it all together for the prosecution to tie in those other counts. Two sex trafficking counts, one related to Ventura, one related to the former girlfriend who's testifying as, Jane, and then also transportation to engage in prostitution.

We heard testimony from one of those summary witnesses that was taking testimony today of flight records, of cash transfers, of text messages of Combs arranging some of these male escorts and then discussing how they would be paid. So this, as the prosecution is trying to tie it all together before they rest their case on Monday. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Kara, I don't think we expect six more weeks when the defense picks up. What -- what's their plan?

SCANNELL: So the defense said today that they are expecting to have a very short defense. Combs' lead attorney, Marc Agnifilo, said that he expects to rest their case on Tuesday or Wednesday, so that doesn't allow for very many witnesses to testify and take the stand. Then the judge said that based on this timeline, he thinks closing arguments could be as soon as Thursday. Phil?

MATTINGLY: OK. Kara Scannell, appreciate you, bud. Thanks. Well, up next, we go inside the intense and very dramatic world of high-stakes hostage negotiation. What it took to free one American wrongfully detained in Venezuela.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[17:50:58]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To be very candid, I wish I had a few more things in my toolkit that I could throw on the table, but at a certain point you have to ask, what's it going to take to get this done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: In our Pop Lead, a behind-the-scenes look at high-stakes negotiations to free an American who was wrongfully detained in Venezuela.

"Take No Prisoners" is a documentary that opened at South by Southwest in March and is making the film festival tour right now. It follows U.S. -- former U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs, Roger Carstens, and his mission to return Eyvin Hernandez, an American public defender, to the United States. Jake Tapper recently sat down with Carstens and Adam Ciralsky, co-director of the documentary.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: What a compelling doc. So these negotiations are usually incredibly secretive, usually aren't cameras on the plane. How did you hear about Eyvin, and how did you get this level of access?

ADAM CIRALSKY, CO-DIRECTOR, "TAKE NO PRISONERS" DOCUMENTARY: It started organically, seeing Roger for drinks in August of 2022, and we hadn't seen one another for years, and he told me that 25 percent of his caseload was Venezuela, which seems kind of shocking because they're wealthier and more practiced patrons in Tehran and --

ROGER CARSTENS, FORMER U.S. SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ENVOY FOR HOSTAGE AFFAIRS: Russia.

CIRALSKY: -- Russia.

TAPPER: Yes.

CIRALSKY: And the fact that they were leading the world in hostage taking seems extraordinary to me and worth pursuing.

TAPPER: And Roger, you've been involved in so many negotiations like this over the years. We've had you on the show to talk about a number of them, including maybe the first one was Trevor Reed out of Russia. How did Eyvin's situation compare to some of the others you've worked on? CARSTENS: I think there was a level of complexity that was unexpected. We'd knocked out an earlier negotiation with the Maduro regime in which we brought seven Americans home in two different tranches, and so you'd think that Eyvin's case would be easier to solve, and yet it just kept going on and on and on with all these unexpected twists, and a lot of it came down to Maduro kept asking for things that we could not bring at that time, it was Alex Saab. And it took a long time for both sides to reconcile and come to the fore, but surprisingly tough and surprisingly long.

TAPPER: Yes. And Adam, spoiler alert, but if you watch this, it does have a happy ending. Eyvin does return to the United States. What was it like to be invested in this project not knowing if it was actually going to have a happy ending?

CIRALSKY: It was like an EKG. I mean --

TAPPER: Yes.

CIRALSKY: -- there were moments when nothing happened for six months, and I think as the -- as 2023 clocked out and the administration was looking at the possibility of snapback sanctions on Venezuela, this really came to the fore, and the impossible became the inevitable, which was the release of Alec Saab, which is something that the White House swore they would not do.

TAPPER: Why? Why wouldn't they do it?

CIRALSKY: They wouldn't sunk cost fallacy.

TAPPER: Yes.

CIRALSKY: Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration had spent so much money tracking him down and holding him in Cape Verde and then bringing him to --

TAPPER: Remind people what he did.

CIRALSKY: He was Maduro's money launderer.

TAPPER: Yes.

CIRALSKY: And now he's in charge of the Venezuelan sovereign wealth fund.

TAPPER: Right. There's a line in the film, Roger, about how American citizens have been made a commodity for other countries to detain and use in negotiations. How can the U.S. keep citizens safe, or is it just a matter of don't go to Russia, don't go to Iran, don't go to Venezuela?

CARSTENS: That's going to be a part of it. There's a prevention aspect where you're trying to keep people from going there, whether it's by giving them official notices or if someone goes to buy their tickets to, say, Russia, they're given a warning either at the point of purchasing or the point of picking up their ticket, or just getting on the plane.

So the prevention side is going to be important. However, there's also a deterrence side, where as a nation state, a group of nations get together and decide that they're going to raise the cost of a country taking one of our people hostage, so one day hopefully if the cost's high enough, you won't have the Russians, for example, taking an American, a Belgian, a Swede, et cetera.

TAPPER: And Adam, what -- what do you hope audiences take away from the film? What message do you want them to hear?

[17:55:02]

CIRALSKY: I think this is the last, maybe one of the last, consensus issues in Washington. We live in a country where every interaction with the federal government feels fraught, feels like going to the DMV. And this is one that I think Americans would be very surprised to know, that if their loved one is taken by a foreign government, the White House will send someone to their living room to eat with them, cry with them, drink with them, and then hand over their cell phone number to get something done.

TAPPER: Adam Ciralsky, Roger Carstens, thanks, and just keep an eye out for it. It will hit your local town film festival, and also I'm sure it will be on a streamer soon enough.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY: Tulsi Gabbard, President Trump's Director of National Intelligence, out with a brand new post on social media just shortly after the President today said she's wrong about her recent assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities. We'll have it next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:00:05]

MATTINGLY: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper.