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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Now: Forecast Update For Hurricane Erin; Target CEO Stepping Down As Sales Continue To Plunge; Target's Slump Follows Economic Turmoil, DEI Backtrack; Sources: DOJ Investigating If D.C. Crime Stats Were Manipulated; Poll: D.C. Residents Feel Less Safe With Increased Federal Presence; TX GOP Nears Vote On New Maps As Dems Stage Last- Minute Protests; Afghans Left Behind After U.S. Withdrawal Speak Out; Russia's New Warning About Ukrainian Security Guarantees. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired August 20, 2025 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DANA BASH, CN ANCHOR: Thank you so much to the panel. Heard some --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Unless the discussion was great.

BASH: Terrific discussion, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

BASH: Thank you. Thank you for that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Satisfying.

BASH: Thanks. I agree. Thanks to you.

And you know what, Phil Mattingly, you're going to have so many great discussions, so many great reports on the show that you're doing, "The Lead." It's so good to see you, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. You're setting a high bar there, D.B. We appreciate you. We'll look for more tomorrow in "The Arena."

BASH: Have a good show.

[17:00:36]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking news.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper.

We begin with the breaking news. A brand new update just in on Hurricane Erin, a strong Category 2. While it's expected to stay out to sea, air and size and force will still impact the U.S. east coast. Already pushing up dangerous waves and wind gusts that could hit tropical storm force along North Carolina's Outer Banks, a popular tourist destination. We want to start things off meteorologist Derek Van Dam.

Derek, what's new in this brand new update from the National Hurricane Center?

DEREK VAN DAM, CNN METEOROLOGIST: All right, Phil, so we've got the sun setting on this large storm system just off the southeast coastline and it is expansive. At the 5:00 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, essentially nothing has changed. Maybe the direction a little bit more of a northerly turn and eventually we'll move to the northeast. But look at the size of this thing, over 800 miles from end to end. The warnings remain the same, tropical storm warnings in place for the coastal areas of North Carolina through the Delmarva Peninsula, stretching into central and southern portions of New Jersey.

So it's a Cat 2 as it stands right now, definitely looking more organized than it did just a day ago, that's because of the warm waters here, but it's going to stay offshore. But it is certainly agitating the western Atlantic Ocean, pushing up waves.

Got a dangerous combination here, especially for the Outer Banks. We've got this tidal surge, we have the strong winds and we have the potential for some of the highest tides of the month occurring especially tomorrow morning. And I'm paying attention to this high tide on Thursday morning, 6:30 in the morning will coincide with the closest pass of Hurricane Erin. So watch out, Highway 12, the Outer Banks, definitely some overwash across that region and a dangerous riptide across the entire Eastern seaboard.

MATTINGLY: All right. Derek Van Dam, thanks for that.

Joining us now is Drew Pearson. He's the emergency management director of Dare County, North Carolina, which includes the Outer Banks.

Really appreciate your time. I know you have a ton on your plate right now. I want to start with I think a question a lot of people are asking right now, your colleague Dare County Manager Robert Outten, told CNN affiliate WITN since Erin won't be a direct hit, some people mistakenly think it may not be a problem. What are you doing about residents and tourists who maybe aren't taking this seriously enough?

DREW PEARSON, DIRECTOR, DARE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: Well, Phil, thank you and I just want to first say thank you to the National Weather Service for Spot on forecast. The professionals at the National Weather Service allowed us to get ready and to take action to convince those people who are looking at this storm as being so far away that it couldn't be impacts to us to let them know those impacts. That life threatening storm surge that we're starting to see on the Outer Banks this evening with this high tide is got their attention now just like Bobby Allen has with getting their attention.

We are engaged, we are ready and the people are ready to hunker down. We've evacuated the county or Hatteras Island and now we're getting ready to weather it and be ready with our responders to help where needed, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Highway 12, the main stretch that connects the islands and the Outer Banks. Are you preparing for this highway to potentially become inaccessible, possibly for a matter of days?

PEARSON: We are. Our national -- our North Carolina Department of Transportation folks are out now working it, doing their best to keep it open, but they're ready to close it. And once it's closed and shut off, they'll be there to get it open as quickly as possible once conditions allow. And we've got pieces in place on Hatteras Island to make sure our residents that decide to stay are safe. But we also have told them that they might be on their own. We might not be able to help them for a period of time and they're resilient and they'll be ready for it.

MATTINGLY: This hour, some residents will have their water shut off in parts of Dare County due to ocean, it's called over watch -- wash concerns. What is that? Explain that to people.

PEARSON: Well, there's a little portion down in Buxton where there's not anybody there right now because we have a mandatory evacuation. We are turning some of the water off to protect the water system should it be washed away. But those particular areas that are being shut off, we've gone door to make sure there's nobody there and to make sure they're not going to be impacted. If they are, we're taking care of them with water.

MATTINGLY: The work you're doing is invaluable. We appreciate your time. We definitely wish the best of luck. We're all thinking of you guys as we head into the evening.

Drew Pearson, thank you. Please stay safe.

[17:05:02]

PEARSON: Thank you, Phil, for having us.

MATTINGLY: We turn now to the money lead. How did Target get so off target? Its CEO, Brian Cornell is stepping down after 11 years at the giant retailer as Target sales continue to plummet and customers continue to turn away. Now, his departure was expected and he'll be replaced by Target's current chief operating officer on February 1st of next year. But Target has been in a major slump for several years and much of that is the result of its own missteps.

Because let's face it, Target was for years all the rage. The place for suburbanites to shop, it was Tarjay. Now, in the early 2000s, Target looked like this and it smelled -- it smelled -- it's not like movie theater popcorn and concessions, it was wonderful. Even anti shopping kids, they could be entertained in the toy or video game section where while their parents tried on clothes or picked out garden supplies, the variety of products became the subject of memes that illustrated how financially treacherous it could be just to walk into Target for just a few items than walking out with way more, goes to Target to buy a pen, $3,465 later, you may remember that. Then came the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, since everyone was stuck at home and incredibly bored, Target's home goods section exploded in popularity.

Plus people didn't have to actually set foot in the store, avoiding COVID germs by using Target's drive up feature. Now you'll recall it was also during the pandemic when George Floyd was murdered at the hands of police in Minneapolis, which is headquarters to Target. Now Target became one of corporate America's most forceful supporters of diversity and inclusion initiatives, vowed to support black Americans in the aftermath of Floyd's murder.

After the pandemic is when things started to go downhill for the artist formerly known as Tarjay. In 2022 sales, it began to drop. The chain bought too much merchandise and a ton of unsold inventory while decades high inflation hit shoppers. Post-pandemic, people primarily wanted to buy the essentials.

Then on top of the falling sales, a political outcry. In 2023, activists and customers on the right attack Target for its LGBTQ themed merchandise during Pride month. That contributed to a drop in sales and lawsuits from Republican aligned legal groups. The company then removed the merchandise from the stores.

Then earlier this year and amid President Trump's anti-diversity, equity and inclusion push, Target announced it was ending its DEI pledges made in the wake of George Floyd's murder, including to increase its Black workforce by 20 percent and its executive racial equity committee, this prompted backlash from the left, starting as a one day boycott in February, but some it kept the boycott going. Atlanta area pastor Jamal Bryant spoke with CNN Victor Blackwell after initiating a 40-day boycott coinciding with Lynn.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMAL BRYANT, PASTOR, NEW BIRTH MISSIONARY BAPTIST CHURCH: Everywhere you go, you're seeing a great pullback of people nationally who are saying I'm not doing it. And I want to note it is not just black people who are participating, but people who are sympathizers saying the country's moving in the wrong direction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: And of course, you can't forget that also this year, higher tariffs have piled on to Target's problems because it imports about half of what it sells. So with complicated economic conditions and the company's own political whiplash that alienated customers, it turned into the perfect storm that hit Target right on the bull's eye.

Now for the third straight quarter, sales have fallen. Shares fell 10 percent in premarket trading. And according to Placer AI, analytics firm, store traffic has fallen almost every week since late January. Someone, anyone check on the Target lady.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And I hope someone walks up soon so I can say welcome to Target. I just want to say welcome to Target. Just want to say welcome to Target to somebody. Welcome to Target. (END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Let's discuss with Bryan Lanza, senior advisor to Trump's 2024 campaign and Mo Elleithee, he served as DNC communications director and a senior spokesman for Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign.

Mo, this is actually a question I have almost daily in this administration, which is business leaders trying to navigate this moment on the cultural side, also on the economic side, what lessons do you think they could learn from Target's experiences?

MO ELLEITHEE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE OF POLITICS & PUBLIC SERVICE: Know who you are, right? Every corporation has its own set of values. Figure out what those are and stick to them, right? The companies that weather this storm, the cultural backlash storm, whether it's coming from the left or from the right, are the ones that say no, this is what's important to us.

Look at a company like Patagonia, which takes very strong positions on many issues, they're doing fine because they stick to who they are. They're true to the values that are important to them. Their customers, their employees, their shareholders.

Problem with a company like Target, and I agree a lot of this are the other economic conditions, right, tariffs have hit them pretty hard, among other things, but when a company takes a stand, feels a little bit of backlash, moves off of that stand, feels more backlash, it sends a message to a lot of customers out there that this is a company that doesn't know who it is, and I want to shop at a company that shares my values.

[17:10:15]

MATTINGLY: And customers respond to that clearly on some level.

Bryan, hypothetically, if someone were to reach out to you and say, hey, with this administration, how do I navigate this current business climate? What would you say to them? Because a lot of people reaching out to a lot of people in Trump's orbit saying, what do I do here? What would you tell them?

BRYAN LANZA, SENIOR ADVISER, TRUMP 2024 CAMPAIGN: First of all, in the future, stay out of these cultural fights. Look at Anheuser-Busch that took place with their ad campaign with respect to the transgender person there. You know, don't bring, you know, societals, you know, controversies into the corporate office. And that's what Anheuser- Busch list. They had to backtrack that.

And that's what Target's going through. Stay out of the cultural fights. You know, be a beer distributor, serve beer, you know, sell merchandise. Don't get involved in these cultural fights because you're going to get, you know, eaten by both sides. What -- the right's not going to be happy with you, and you're ultimately going have to backtrack because the numbers are going to reflect that.

Look at Anheuser-Busch. And the left's not going to be happy with you, because then you backtrack off of the new course that you're taking. Stay out of it completely, is what I tell. And then how do you repair it going forward? At least with this administration, pledge never to bring it back.

I mean, this administration has made it clear that the EI policy is a cancer, and they're going to do everything they can to root it out. They're rooting that at the university levels, they're going to root it out at the business levels. The best thing a corporation can do coming forward is said, hey, we've learned the lesson from getting involved in these cultural fights. Going forward, we're going to stay out of it. We're not going to get involved.

We're just going to sell what we need to sell. And I think that's probably the only way to do it, to stay off the target of the Trump administration, because if you stick your head out in this culture fight, you're going to get it chopped off. And President Trump has made that clear.

MATTINGLY: I think the difficulty in this moment, though, is that the president clearly sees cultural battles as a win for him or a winning issue for him. There's no question about that. Not up for debate. And he's willing to extend them in places that I don't think anybody's ever thought they existed before. So, say, take the Smithsonian, Trump yesterday said the Smithsonian is, quote, "Out of control, where everything discussed is how horrible our country is, how bad slavery was.

Nothing about success." Trump said he would have his attorney go through the museum to start the same process he's done, as you noted, Bryan, with colleges and universities. What does that actually look like here? And is that going too far on this issue?

LANZA: Yes. I just got back from Greece and I was at the Museum of the Acropolis, that arguably was built with slave labor. They never discussed it. They were able to talk about a key point in their -- in their history of the world, the Acropolis, what it meant to them, and they were able to do it talking about the good virtues of their country, of how they've evolved, they didn't do the negatives. And that's what Trump is doing.

He's talking about the good virtues of the United States. Sure, our original sin is slavery. We've come a long way. There's many positive things that have taken place since our original sin. But we're not the only sinners in this space, but we're seem the only ones discussing it in our cultural institutions, whether it's museums, whether it's movies, we're the ones having these conversations louder than anybody else.

So I think what President Trump wants is like looking at the world and said, look at the Museum of the Acropolis, slave labor helped build that, but they're not highlighting it. What's wrong with highlighting the good things about American history as opposed to having these institutions that are highlighting the negative things?

ELLEITHEE: But I think that's a great thing about America, is that we're willing to self-reflect and look at ourselves and see where our shortcomings were and then look at how we overcame those shortcomings. That's the American story. And you go into these museums, first of all, this notion that, like every exhibit of every Smithsonian museum focuses on the bad things about slavery, simply, that's just not true. You go into any of these exhibits that talk about slavery, they also talk about people like Frederick Douglass and Harriet Tubman and the civil rights leaders who a century later were still trying to overcome the shortcomings that began with the original sin of slavery, that's part of the story we have to keep telling. And Donald Trump himself knows that, because Donald Trump himself said that in 2017 when he went and visited the Black History Museum and talked about how amazing it was, and it was important for us to see in these types of exhibits the fact that we overcame adversity.

LANZA: I think the problem is, is the more and more, and you've had -- you've heard Morgan Freeman, you know, very popular actor, African- American actor, they asked him, how does he deal with the race. He doesn't talk about it. You know, we are at a society that if that's the only conversation we're having, if that's where we're leading, that is a hindrance.

I come from the Latino community, right? I don't talk about all the negative things that have been of the Latino experience. I talk about my parents coming here, having the opportunity to be successful, having the opportunity to move up the economic ladder, not talking about all the negative things that took place to move up that ladder. There's a lot of positive we can talk about that gets lost in discussion because there is a victimhoodship that takes place here, United States, that is different than in most parts of the world. And we see that and that's anchor to our progress.

ELLEITHEE: No, I totally hear that and I respect it. But at the same time, to just gloss over the negative that led to the positive, that leads to situations like what we saw in Florida just a couple of years ago when they tried to rewrite school textbooks to talk about the very -- some of the many benefits that slaves got. There was no benefit to being a slave.

[17:15:12]

LANZA: Yes.

ELLEITHEE: Right?

LANZA: Yes.

ELLEITHEE: But if we don't honor and respect and embrace the good and the bad of our history, then we end up rewriting that history just like they tried to do in Florida textbooks.

LANZA: It just can't be anchor to our history. And that's what it's become, this racial conversation.

MATTINGLY: It's a good faith conversation to be had between the two of you. It becomes less good faith when people are trying to bring back Confederate statues and kind of --

LANZA: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- embrace the Lost Cause movement, which I think everybody knows was done to try and cover up for stuff.

Much more to discuss on this, I have no doubt in the weeks and months ahead. Bryan, Mo, thank you guys. Appreciate it.

LANZA: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Well, also here in D.C. today, Vice President J.D. Vance with a pop up appearance at a local shake shack. His response when Heckler has tried to drown out his message to National Guard troops here with Trump's federal police takeover. Plus the vote could go down tonight in Texas as Republicans try and redraw congressional in their favor ahead of the 2026 midterms.

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MATTINGLY: In our national lead, six Republican led states are now sending National Guard troops here to Washington D.C. their military vehicles, along with federal law enforcement are pretty hard to miss on the streets. Local police armed, Federal agents patrol the streets, all in response to President Trump's crackdown on D.C. crime he says is out of control.

[17:20:15]

Now earlier today, protesters heckled Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with troops in D.C. CNN's Brian Todd reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): While Vice President J.D. Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth visited National Guard units deployed to D.C. --

J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You guys bust your ass all day, we give you a hammer. Not a fair trade, but we're grateful for everything you guys do.

TODD (voice-over): -- and shared lunch at a local Shake Shack --

VANCE: You can actually bring law and order to communities, you've just got to have the political willpower to do it.

TODD (voice-over): -- around the same time, Washington, D.C. mayor Muriel Bowser was holding a news conference.

MAYOR MURIEL BOWSER, (D) WASHINGTON, D.C.: My plan is to represent the (inaudible) that can navigate us out of this emergency, the president's emergency.

TODD (voice-over): Bowser also addressing the Justice Department investigation into whether the D.C. Police Department manipulated data to make crime numbers appear lower. BOWSER: We know that crime has gone down in our city and it has gone down precipitously over the last two years because of a lot of hard work. We know that those facts don't comport to what some people are saying, but those are the facts.

TODD (voice-over): While the mayor has criticized President Trump's takeover of the D.C. police, she and D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith met with White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and DEA Administrator Terry Cole Tuesday. We pressed the mayor on whether any new agreements were made or if they discussed coordination between agencies, but she only said this.

BOWSER: We discuss shared priorities.

TODD (voice-over): Meanwhile, some in D.C. have taken to the streets in protest. With roughly eight in 10 residents opposing Trump's federal takeover, a new Washington Post Char School poll finds, with protesters even at times drowning out Vance's remarks today.

VANCE: And I think you hear these guys outside here screaming at us, of course these are a bunch of crazy protesters.

TODD (voice-over): And while President Trump has claimed D.C. restaurants are booming.

DONALD TRUMP, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And the restaurants the last two days were busier than they've been in a long time.

MATTINGLY: We found that restaurants are feeling impacts from Trump's federal surge. OpenTable tracks reservation data for the city and says that while the annual summer restaurant week is bringing more business this week, dining was down 7 percent last week from the week before. Some establishments along the 14th street corridor told us there was a huge drop in weekday business during the law enforcement surge, low even for a typically slow August, with residents there saying the increased police presence is causing new issues.

MARA LASKO, WASHINGTON, D.C., RESIDENT: I don't think that they're actually doing anything productive to make our city safer place.

TODD (voice-over): The general manager of nearby restaurant Ted's Bulletin told us that while he hasn't noticed a huge change in diners, there have been some positive changes.

GIOVANNI BALBUENA, GENERAL MANAGER, TED'S BULLETIN: I do see less homeless people walking into my business.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TODD (on camera): Most visible deployments of National Guard troops in the city. Now, during her news conference, Mayor Bowser and Police Chief Pamela Smith were asked about criticism from some members of the public of the fact that some law enforcement agents have been seen wearing masks during operations in D.C., I'm talking about federal law enforcement agents have been seen wearing masks during operations in D.C. during this surge. Now, Chief Smith said she hasn't received any guidance on why these agents are wearing the masks. But then Mayor Bowser jumped in and said emphatically that she does not believe that in this urban environment there is any reason for a law enforcement agent to wear a mask. Phil, that's been a big point of contention between members of the public and some federal law enforcement agents that they've seen out in the streets in D.C.

MATTINGLY: Brian Todd for us in Washington, D.C. thanks so much to you and your team. Great reporting as always.

And I want to bring in D.C. Councilmember Brooke Pinto, who chairs the Council's Committee on Public Safety. Thank you very much for coming in. I want to start with the crime stats debate that has been going on, the allegations that there have been falsehoods that have been manipulated on some level. What's the truth in your sense of things right now?

BROOKE PINTO, D.C. COUNCIL MEMBER: So crime stats are very important. To be accurate, that's something that's important to me as the Judiciary chair. That's important to our chief, that's important to our mayor. And something that we take really seriously, so much so that our chief conducted her own internal investigation several months ago to make sure that those stats were accurate, she found one case of some possible discrepancies, and she put that officer on leave and is investigating it.

And so, we take accuracy very seriously. And I stand by and support the numbers that our Metropolitan Police Department has.

MATTINGLY: Are you supportive of the Justice Department investigation that's underway into those numbers?

PINTO: No, I think that is another distraction. The work of public safety and of government is serious business. And we have to have our local and federal resources focused on real solutions when it comes to crime and public safety. We can't have these bogus investigations. We can't have the U.S. attorney make announcements that they're no longer going to be prosecuting rifle possession.

[17:25:11]

We have to get illegal guns off the street, all guns. And we have to do that seriously.

MATTINGLY: My colleague Brian cited the Washington Post poll that's out that I think eight of 10 D.C. residents aren't exactly thrilled with what's happening right now. Also in that poll, I think six out of 10 felt -- said they felt less safe in the current environment. What's your message to those residents?

PINTO: Everyone should be safe in D.C. and we are extremely committed to that effort. In any normal environment where we do work with the federal government, we often work in partnership with certain federal agencies to help with investigations, illegal firearms, drug investigations. But what's happening now is different. We don't have control over what's going on in our streets with a lot of the deployment decisions. We have certain agencies showing up with masks over their faces, not wearing their insignia on which department they come with.

We have ICE taking people from the streets where we can't track where they're being taken to. I believe in law and order. I support our law enforcement and the law has to apply to everyone. We have to have sensible due process and we have to have a system in place that is not leading to fear and traumatization for our community.

MATTINGLY: Do you have any sense what the end game is here? You know, the statutes that are being utilized or a statute that's being utilized has a 30 day time window on it. We don't necessarily have a great sense from the White House of how they plan on this going forward other than we're in it right now. What are you being told?

PINTO: Well, this element of our Home Rule Act has never been utilized by any president in our 52-year history in Washington, D.C. and our hope is that after the 30-day period is up of the declared emergency that we have an off ramp to get back to work, get back to the reasonable partnerships that we should have in the nation's capital to keep residents and visitors safe. The need to have the United States Senate appoint our judges that have 21 percent vacancy on our local courts because of their inaction. The need for Congress to fix the $1 billion budget gap that they created from our locally raised dollars this spring that is disallowing us from paying our officers and our firefighters what they deserve. We need the United States attorney to prosecute cases because they have jurisdiction over adult prosecutions in Washington. So, there are paths forward to continue our progress on making everyone safe in D.C. and we need to stick with what we know works.

MATTINGLY: Brooke Pinto, D.C. councilmember, I appreciate you coming in. Thanks so much for your time.

Well, next we're going live to Texas, where a pending vote any hour now could set the tone for the fight for 2026 and who controls Congress. Stay with us.

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[17:32:26]

MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, former President Barack Obama is now endorsing the pending plan by California Democrats to redraw the state's congressional maps. At an event last night, Obama told a group of Democrats, quote, given that Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House that is effectively saying gerrymander for partisan purposes. He went on to say he has tremendous respect for how Governor Newsom has approached this.

In Texas today, Republicans are poised to pass a new map backed by President Trump, which could add five Republican House seats. Texas Democrats have fiercely protested that effort. CNN's Arlette Saenz is live for us in Austin, Texas. And Arlette, you've been following this debate as lawmakers move toward this vote. What have you been hearing so far?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Phil, Texas House lawmakers have been in the House chamber just down the hall from where we are for over six hours now debating this redistricting bill. There was a long amendment process where all of the Democratic amendments were struck down.

And now what we are hearing from these lawmakers is Democrats -- Democratic representatives who are in opposition giving these floor speeches. This is the next point before the House can begin voting on the redistricting bill. It's expected that there would be two votes before final passage in this chamber.

But really, there have been some tense moments between Republicans and Democrats today. And so many have expressed frustration with these maps that have been backed by President Donald Trump that could potentially net the GOP as many as five U.S. House seats in next midterm elections. Here's a sample of what some Democratic lawmakers had to say today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. BARBARA GERVIN-HAWKINS (D-TX): For me, this body has changed an atmosphere when I now look at my colleagues and say, wow, who are you really?

REP. JOHN H. BUCY III (D-TX): This is not democracy. This is authoritarianism in real time. Republicans are going to try and convince you that this is the will of the people. But if the people agreed with them, why do they need to cheat to win?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAENZ: At this point, it's not a matter of if, but it's when these maps will pass the House will need to pass it first, and then it heads over to the Senate, which is set to come back into session tomorrow evening. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has said that he could sign this within a matter of days.

MATTINGLY: Arlette, I do want to ask, there was another big moment today there in Austin where parents who lost children from that devastating Fourth of July flash flooding at Camp Mystic, were giving gripping testimony to Texas state senators. What did they say?

[17:35:09]

SAENZ: Yes, you know, Texas redistricting is not the only issue on this special session. They are also, these lawmakers, expected to consider flood relief as well as changes to camp safety. And that was the focus of that hearing before the state -- state Senate committee a bit earlier today. There were several parents of children who were lost in those floods at Camp Mystic, many of them speaking for the first time about their children's passing. Take a listen to a bit of what they had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BLAKE BONNER, PARENT OF CAMP MYSTIC FLOOD VICTIM: This wasn't an act of God. This was an act of pure complacency. LACEY HOLLIS, PARENT OF CAMP MYSTIC FLOOD VICTIM: We don't know when she died. We don't know how. We really don't know anything.

BRANDY DILLON, PARENT OF CAMP MYSTIC FLOOD VICTIM: Every plan for our future, every dream that included her, has been destroyed by unsafe facilities, inadequate preparation, failed planning, and poor execution.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SAENZ: Now, flood relief has become a political flashpoint in the redistricting debate. Democrats criticize Republicans for not bringing up flood relief. It's the very first bills in the Texas House, while the GOP has criticized Democrats for leaving the state for 15 days and preventing work on that issue.

But even as there's this debate about action, so many of these parents and the communities still recovering just want to see the lawmakers act on this to get funding needed for these communities and also ensure that devastation like this does not happen again.

MATTINGLY: Arlette Saenz for us in Austin, Texas. Very consequential night and week ahead. Thanks so much for the reporting.

While conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East dominate the headlines, CNN went back to Afghanistan. The message one woman says she risked her life to share with us about living under Taliban control. That's next.

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[17:41:12]

MATTINGLY: In our World Lead, stuck and living in constant fear under the Taliban. This is the reality for Afghans who helped the U.S. military or worked for American organizations but were left behind after the chaotic 2021 U.S. withdrawal. Earlier this year, President Trump canceled the refugee program created to give them a pathway to move to the U.S. CNN's Isobel Yeung went to Afghanistan and spoke with some of those affected.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Hundreds of thousands of Afghans worked with the U.S. government during their 20-year war here as translators, drivers, civil society workers and doctors. Following America's chaotic withdrawal under the Biden administration in 2021, the U.S. set up a refugee program that would provide a path for Afghans to move to the U.S., a lightning rod for many Republicans.

STEPHEN MILLER, CURRENT WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF: The United States of America never, ever made a promise, written or unwritten, to the people of Afghanistan that if after 20 years they were unable to secure their own country, that we would take them to ours. YEUNG (voice-over): When Trump returned to power this year, he canceled refugee programs, dismantled the office dedicated to helping Afghans relocate and barred them from entering the U.S. altogether.

YEUNG: We've been speaking to a lot of those individuals across the country but sadly because of security concerns, most of them we're having to speak to on the phone.

YEUNG (voice-over): On paper, the U.S. says they are still processing cases for people who worked with the U.S. military directly. But many, like this man, are stuck in Afghanistan, living in fear. We've disguised his voice.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I know that the Taliban is searching for me. I'm hiding. I can't go outside freely. If they find me, I'm confident that they will imprison me. They will torture me. They will kill me. Donald Trump become U.S. President. He signed the executor order and all our cases stopped. We stood with the U.S. forces side by side for a long time, but now they banned us. Why? Where is the justice?

YEUNG: So we've been in touch with one woman who has agreed to meet with us. She says that it's very risky, that she risks running into the Taliban, she risks traveling by herself and she's very scared. But she says it's worth it because she really needs to share her story.

YEUNG (voice-over): As a doctor, this woman worked for American charities. With recent U.S. aid cuts, she lost her job. She now feels that her relationship with U.S. organizations has put her and her family's life in danger.

YEUNG: You're clearly terrified. You came here, you're shaking.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: During the way here, I saw many Taliban and I am very afraid from them.

YEUNG: What is it like as a woman living in Afghanistan right now?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The situation is very bad for the Afghan woman. And we don't -- I don't have any job. Going to the bazaar, not going to the shopping. We can't. Everything. Just we are in the home and we are afraid from every second of the life we spend is very dangerous.

YEUNG (voice-over): Her communication with the State Department has stopped. The last e-mail she got was in January, just days before Trump returned to the White House.

YEUNG: How did you feel when you saw the news that Trump was cancelling these programs?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All the night we are crying. It was very difficult to accept.

YEUNG: You felt like this was your lifeline?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, yes. It broke our heart. YEUNG: President Trump has said that he needs to protect the borders, that he needs this America First policy to ensure that it's not dangerous, that no one dangerous enters the U.S.

[17:45:01]

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I am not agree with this. They broke his promise to Afghan woman and Afghan girls.

YEUNG: What does it feel like?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We are feeling bad because we trusted it. And we worked with them for 20 years. And they promised us too. We must be moved from here to America.

YEUNG: What is your message to President Trump?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please, please, please, please start the cases again. And also, please support the Afghan girls and women. Because now it was very difficult for us. It was very dangerous. And now I'm not feeling safe in here.

YEUNG (voice-over): The U.S. State Department told us they're unable to comment on individual cases or internal operations of refugee processing, and that the President is, quote, committed to helping those who helped us, but that their first priority is always the safety and security of the American people.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

YEUNG: Well, we're seeing this America First agenda play out across the world in terms of U.S. foreign policy, but obviously many thousands of people are really impacted and desperate and living in hope that these policies could change. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Isobel Yeung, remarkable reporting, thanks so much.

Well, to Russia's war in Ukraine, that's next. And the message today from the Kremlin, it may suggest President Trump's attempt to negotiate a peace plan may not pay off anytime soon. I'll ask former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton about Russia's new warning. That's ahead.

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[17:50:55]

MATTINGLY: In our World Lead, quote, a path to nowhere. Those words of warning today from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, reacting to the idea of European nations leading a so-called coalition of the willing to provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any peace deal, but not including the Russians in that planning.

Lavrov added that Moscow has not heard, quoting again, any constructive ideas, end quote, from European leaders on how to end the conflict in Ukraine. With us now is former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton. Mr. Ambassador, really appreciate your time.

When you see a comment like that from Sergey Lavrov, does that mean that any hopes of the recent summit leading to some type of peace agreement to end the war are essentially dead in the water?

JOHN BOLTON, FORMER TRUMP NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Well, I think they're disappearing quickly because so many things were said in such a quick period of time that -- that people haven't really realized what the other side was saying. For example, in Alaska, President Trump made a pretty substantial point of saying that Vladimir Putin had conceded he'd be willing to talk about security guarantees for Ukraine. And I remember thinking at the time, that -- that's unusual.

Why does Putin want to talk about them? But now you can see he wants to be directly involved in -- in what's going to happen if they can agree on other issues like the land swap that Trump talked about the week before the summit even began, but on which, when the European leaders were here, they didn't even discuss.

So I think it's -- it's not dead, but it's a little bit like the old saying, the situation as it stands now on the peace talks. You know, if I had some bread, I could have a ham sandwich if I had some ham.

MATTINGLY: You keyed on the President's comments about security guarantees were the same thing. To me, that seemed like a very tangible potential step forward. What would -- what could that look like? What -- what is a way to do that? You know, the President meeting with the European leaders in the Oval Office, how do you construct that in a way that could work here?

BOLTON: Well, the first thing they have to decide is what the mission is. Is it something along the lines of a traditional U.N. peacekeeping mission where a disengagement observer force watches for violations of the ceasefire, and in which case the --

MATTINGLY: Go ahead, sir.

BOLTON: So is it a peacekeeping force in U.N. tradition where there -- there basically no capacity to engage in force other than in self- defense of the peacekeeping force itself? Or is it a peace enforcement mission where the rules of engagement would permit armed force against a ceasefire violator? And that has enormous implications, which of those two it is, on the U.S. presence because we don't really know what President Trump means by supporting the British and French and other troops on the ground through the air. Does he mean combat aircraft engaging Russian forces on the ground and in the air, or does he mean American transport aircraft?

And -- and if it's combat aircraft, what happens if Russian air defenses or -- or their fighters begin killing American pilots? I just don't -- I think this -- this whole confusion reflects how fast they're going and how little attention they're paying to the hard issues and -- and why this thing is beginning to come unraveled.

MATTINGLY: What's your sense of why there's been a lot of talk about a trilateral meeting between President Putin and President Zelenskyy with -- with President Trump involved in it? U.S. officials have made clear they view that as kind of a critical next step here. We've not heard the same from Russian representatives, at least in terms of any type of acknowledgement of a trilateral meeting upcoming. Why do you think that is?

BOLTON: Well, I don't -- I don't think they think that there -- there's anything in it for them, basically. And -- and you have to wonder. You have all these quick meetings. You get the principles together. They talk right past each other. They use the same words, but they don't necessarily have the same meanings. This is a very complicated issue. It's not like selling an automobile or something like that.

[17:55:13]

You can't just have a handshake on something that's gone through three and a half years of combat in -- in several very quick meetings. It's just, I -- I think, in fact, if Ukraine really thought it was in jeopardy of losing the -- the substantial territories that Russia is demanding, they wouldn't want a trilateral meeting either.

MATTINGLY: Yes. That's a really important point. Ambassador John Bolton, as always, sir, thanks for your time.

BOLTON: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Well, we're tracking Hurricane Erin earlier this hour. The update from the National Hurricane Center, we're live as the force of this system is impacting conditions along the U.S. East Coast. That's next.

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[18:00:00]

MATTINGLY: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. We're following the breaking news tonight. Hurricane Erin already walloping parts of the east coast from dangerous waves --