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The Lead with Jake Tapper

War Spirals In Middle East After U.S. And Israel Strike Iran; Six U.S. Service Members Killed, 18 Seriously Wounded In Iran War; U.S. Military Says, Three Jets Shot Down By Friendly Fire In Kuwait; U.S. Senate Primaries For Both Parties Attracting National Attention; Oil Prices Surge As War With Iran Continues. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired March 02, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: And welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

We start tonight with breaking news worldwide, shockwaves from the U.S. and Israel's expanding war with Iran, the U.S. State Department issuing an urgent warning to Americans moments ago to part now from 14 countries across the Middle East as the barrage of strikes continue to rattle the region.

Six U.S. service members have now been killed in action, according to U.S. Central Command. A source tells CNN that the first U.S. service members to die in the war were killed by a direct Iranian strike on a makeshift operation center at a civilian port in Kuwait on Sunday morning, local time.

[18:00:00]

The attack came quickly with no warning sirens for troops to evacuate or shelter, according to CNN's source.

But President Trump says the big wave of weapon attacks on Iran is yet to come. He told me this in a phone interview earlier today. And in the wake of the death of the ayatollah, the president said he's not sure who is going to be next to lead Iran after Saturday's strikes took out 49 Iranian leaders. He says he doesn't want to see the war go on too long, and commented on the timeline again later at the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We're already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it's okay. Whatever it takes, we will always -- and we have right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: CNN's Kaitlan Collins is standing by at the White House, but let's first get to CNN's Erin Burnett, who's on the ground for us in Tel Aviv. And, Erin, let's start with you. What are you learning about the latest strikes exchanged today between Israel and the Iranian proxy terrorist group, Hezbollah? ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: All right. So, Jake, there's that, there's a new front in the war and we've heard the back and forth from that Israel striking around the Beirut suburbs and indicating a willingness to perhaps put in ground troops there. So, that is happening as we speak.

Just a few moments ago, Jake, I wasn't sure if I was actually going to make this, you know, coming on with you because we had some, obviously, incoming missiles here in Tel Aviv. And this was quite a few and they appeared to be using, in some cases, Jake, from what we could see as we were taking shelter, and then looking at our cameras immediately afterwards, a sort of a cluster munition, Jake, that would come in, obviously from Iran, and then sort of breaks up in the sky here.

That can cause more damage obviously as it comes down, even when hit with interceptors in the missile defense. So, that's the latest we can tell you on that as to whether there was any damage, et cetera, still trying to figure that out. Because it comes, Jake in the middle of what we're witnessing right now, which is what appears to be the most intense series of strikes so far in this war, including the beginning of this war when there were strikes from the U.S. and Israel on Iran as we speak.

And, obviously, understanding exactly where they're striking there, when they're striking, seeing those visuals, that is very opaque. But we do believe that right now we are in the midst of the most intense series of strikes in this war so far, and that fits exactly with what the president told you, which is that the big part is still to come.

So, whether we're going to continue to see it ramp up or not, that's the big unknown. But we are in the midst of that, and it comes in the context of that State Department warning that you just mentioned, which, Jake, is very important, but also very sobering. Because when you look at the 14 countries that they mentioned there, including this one, and so many of them, when they say American citizens need to get out, use all available commercial travel, there is no commercial travel, there is no known way to get out of some of those countries right now as you continue to have what some have called a black hole in the sky with the world's busiest airport shut down and back and forth missile strikes and drone attacks with some of those Shahed drones coming from Iran on the outbound.

One more thing I'll say to you, Jake, as I pass it back to you. Talking to CEOs, tanker CEOs who are dealing with what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz, they are sort of left speechless right now. One of them in terms of what member of the IRGC said on Iranian state television about setting fire to any ships that go into the Strait of Hormuz, they've got three massive Suez, you know, tankers sitting there and they literally, at this point, Jake, don't know what to do.

And for the first time I've heard them say, I am worried. I am very worried. And that is what we're hearing tonight about that, the huge, massive oil, gas, and economic impact of this burgeoning conflict. Back to you. TAPPER: And, Kaitlan, this appearance today from President Trump was the first time he talked about Iran in person, although we did get some details on his goals for these strikes.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Jake. He's done a series of phone interviews with you, with other reporters since launching this war against Iran. But we hadn't yet heard from the president in person on camera until earlier today when he was speaking at this Medal of Honor ceremony here at the White House, and he began his remarks by talking about what his objectives are in Iran.

And I think when you listen to what the president lays out here, Jake, it's obviously incredibly important given what we've heard from his other top officials in the last 36 hours or so on what exactly they are trying to achieve in Iran and how long that could take. As for the president and what his goals are here, of course, the person, the administration officials, including the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, have repeatedly deferred to, this is what he laid out earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Our objectives are clear. First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities, and you see that happening on an hourly basis and their capacity to produce brand new ones and pretty good ones they make.

[18:05:01]

Second, we're annihilating their navy. We've knocked out already ten ships. They're at the bottom of the sea. Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: You heard the president say there, Jake, that the objectives here are clear, but critics have said that that is anything but the case here. As we heard before, the strike was carried out before the president authorized it on Friday afternoon, that really the concern with Iran and those diplomatic talks that were taking place were their efforts to restore their nuclear capabilities following those strikes last summer.

We heard from top advisers to the president, like Steve Witkoff, saying that they are a week away from having a nuclear weapon, to the secretary of state saying that they were not enriching uranium at the time, and now after these attacks have happened, and the president is suggesting that this could go on for at least four to five more weeks, which is the most extensive timeline we've heard yet, Jake. He's now talking about their ballistic missiles and the capabilities that they have there and what they were developing and making sure that they eliminate that threat as well.

So, the question of what was imminent here has been thrown around a lot, Jake. But then also emerging on Capitol Hill today, we heard Secretary Rubio and the House Speaker Mike Johnson talking about this notion that if Israel attacked Iran without the United States joining in on that, that then Iran would retaliate by going after U.S. assets in the region, so basically saying that was also a compelling reason for the United States to carry out this attack. So, there have been a multitude of reasons here, Jake, obviously, that have raised questions.

And I do want to note, as the president was speaking there earlier today, he was in the East Wing of the White House, he was talking about the deaths of U.S. service members, something that he himself has said is a number that could only go higher than what we are at right now, Jake, six members of the armed forces that have been killed.

The president then shifted into this talk about the construction that is happening here with the White House ballroom, talking about how it has been keeping the first lady, Melania, up. She's been complaining about the noise happening early in the morning and late at night. It was a bit of a jarring shift there, Jake, for the president to go from talking about this to then talking about the ballroom construction. And it reminded me of what he did last night when he got back to the White House here where when he was being asked questions about Iran, he instead was highlighting the new statues that have been installed in the White House Rose Garden,

TAPPER: Two of the best journalists and anchors in the business, Kaitlan Collins at the White House and Erin Burnett in Tel Aviv. And we're covering this conflict in a way only CNN can. So do not miss more of Erin's reporting live from Tel Aviv. It comes up in the next hour on Erin Burnett OutFront right after this show.

And then at 8:00 Eastern, this programming note, a special report hosted by Anderson Cooper. And then an hour after that, you can catch Kaitlan Collins on her show at 9:00 P.M. Eastern, The Source with Kaitlan Collins. She's going to speak with Democratic Senator Chris Murphy. That's tonight at 9:00. All this on CNN, and you can watch it on the CNN streaming app.

Let's bring in Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat from New Hampshire, just in a briefing with Trump administration officials. She's the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also serving on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Senator, I know the briefing was classified, but what can you tell us about what you heard.

SEN. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-NH): Well, as you point out, it was classified. What we heard is what we heard earlier in the press conference that the men and women in our military have performed brilliantly. I know that everyone shares in condolences for those people who have been lost, but we heard, as we've heard, as both Erin and Kaitlan said, mixed messages about what the strategy is here, what the endgame is here, and how we're going to get out of Iran.

No one in the free world misses the ayatollah. He repressed his people, killed thousands just in the last few months, sponsored terrorism across the whole region from the Houthis in Yemen to Hezbollah and Lebanon. But what is not clear is how long this is going to go on, the extent to which it's escalating. We've -- as you pointed out, 14 countries who are saying Americans need to get out of those countries, and just what the endgame is.

TAPPER: One of the questions I have after hearing from Secretary Rubio and from Speaker Mike Johnson, who spoke after the Gang of Eight briefing, is how much did the United States strike Iran because Israel was going to strike Iran on its own? And the U.S. believed that after that happened, Iran was going to strike U.S. military bases in the region, and that is the notion of preemption at hand here. Is that really the main reason that these strikes happen now?

SHAHEEN: Well, again, we've been given a lot of reasons why these strikes happen now. That's been one of them. I would hope that if we disagreed with Israel's assessment, that we would've made that clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu.

[18:10:06]

And we would've pointed out that given our support for Israel, for not only their defense of their country, but the weapons that they use, that they would be willing to listen to what the president of the United States had to say.

So, I think that's not at all clear. It's one of the reasons that's been given. And, again, just as what happened in Venezuela, we have a lot of mixed messages about what the goal is, what the strategy is, and no transparency to the American people in advance.

TAPPER: Earlier today, President Trump laid out objectives for striking Iran. They were to destroy Iran's missile capabilities, to annihilate the Iranian Navy, to end its nuclear weapons ambitions, and to prevent Iran from arming terrorists. Do you think that President Trump has effectively made the case to the American people about why Iran needed to be attacked, why they needed to be attacked now, why U.S. service members are dying for this mission?

SHAHEEN: Well, I think he needs to do a much better job of sharing with the American people what the rationale is. What we have heard from negotiations that were going on is that they were very close to reaching an agreement to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. So, we're not sure what actually happened there.

We know that, excuse me, excuse me, anything that we can do to prevent Iran support for terrorism across the Middle East region and here in the United States for that matter, is important to do. But, again, the president hasn't laid out a clear strategy. He's not shared that with the American people. He's not shared that with Congress. He's decided to go to war without authorization from Congress, and the threat of escalation continues.

TAPPER: Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, thank you so much. We're going to have much more in our breaking news and moments, including the friendly fire incident that led to three U.S. fighter jets being shot down today. What we're learning about the pilots' conditions at the hour.

Plus, we're getting some breaking news out of the U.S. Supreme Court on two major cases. Our team is reading through the details right now and we'll have that updated in moments.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:15:00]

TAPPER: We're getting some breaking news out of the U.S. Supreme Court. Let's get right to CNN's Joan Biskupic. Joan, we're talking about two cases here. Let's start with the first one involving transgender students.

JOAN BISKUPIC, CNN CHIEF SUPREME COURT ANALYST: That's right, Jake. And these have just come in and both were decided by the conservative supermajority prevailing over the dissent of the court's three liberals.

The first involves a California education policy that prevents teachers from informing parents about a student's gender expression. If a middle schooler, for example, and there were middle schoolers at issue in this case want to transition and use different gender pronouns, the school policy there in California was the parents could not be told.

Today, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked that policy from being in effect as it goes, parents who had challenged it saying that, no, parents that the state had said it was intended to protect trans minors from rejection and abuse at home. Supreme Court didn't buy it at this point, and as I say, it's over the dissent of three liberals.

The second case, Jake, both of them just decided just this moment, both on very hot button issues, that one obviously on transgender involving children, this one involves redistricting ahead of the upcoming midterms. And in this case, the court approved an emergency appeal from a Republican congresswoman in New York, Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican saying that she and the state election officials had tried to get the Supreme Court to block a state court ruling that would've required a different map that would've essentially changed the boundary lines for her Staten Island district.

In this case, again, the three liberals dissenting saying, here's the Supreme Court coming in essentially at the 11th hour trying to change district lines, when it's usual policy is to leave in place state court determinations.

So, two important rulings right now. They come up through the court's emergency dockets, so they're not final decisions on the merits, but they will affect students in California for now, and also the New York district, the Staten Island area. Jake?

TAPPER: All right. Joan Biskupic, thanks so much.

BISKUPIC: Thanks.

TAPPER: Let's get back to our World Lead, video today showing a U.S. military aircraft crashing in Kuwait and now us, U.S. military says it's investigating what they're calling a, quote, friendly fire incident that down three American fighter jets. All six crew members ejected safely before the crash.

CNN's Nic Robertson is live for us in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Nic, what are you learning about the incident?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, these are images you don't often see, Jake, an F-15 E Fighting Eagle literally just falling flat belly first towards the ground. The pilots of all ejecting, six of them total from these three aircraft. They are being treated, they are recovering, and an investigation underway into precisely what happened.

But, look, the circumstance of the morning of when this occurred in Kuwait City, there were -- fires could be seen on social media, smoke billowing from areas right around the U.S. embassy. That's because very close to the base where these aircraft took off from, there were incoming Iranian drones, incoming Iranian missiles, and these aircraft were going up and being put up in the air to try to interdict these incoming attacks from Iran.

Now, what appears to have happened is Kuwaiti air defense systems weren't synced or just weren't aware, weren't seeing the U.S. fighter aircraft for what they were and targeted them, mistaken targeting, blue on blue, if you like, bringing these aircraft down.

[18:20:03]

Look, the big picture in the gulf at the moment is a lot of incoming Iranian missiles are being brought down by defense systems, by fighter aircraft. It is succeeding in saving a lot of lives on the ground. But the hard reality is you have in urban environments an unusual circumstance here where you have intense activity joining allies together, the Kuwaitis with the U.S. and other areas.

You know, it's the Saudis, it's the Emiratis, it's the Omanis, it's the Qataris, are all in this situation, the Gulf together, intense incoming fire, U.S. assisting where it can in some of these cases and with tragic results for the aircraft.

But, fortunately, these service members are being treated. They're not in life-threatening conditions. But it really does highlight what's going on here at the moment, Jake, and the dangers inherent in all of this.

TAPPER: All right. Nic Robertson in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, thank you so much.

So, what comes next for the people of Iran? Who will lead that country? And what does the path to a new government even look like? I'm going to ask a top adviser for one man who hopes to be the transitional leader, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:25:00]

TAPPER: In our World, extensive military strikes over the weekend by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran launching retaliatory Strikes leaves the country at a critical crossroads. With the death of Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, some Iranians, many Iranians are expressing hope that leadership change could ease the ongoing economic and human rights crisis. Although some analysts warn the current regime could potentially become even more dangerous and meaningful political or economic change might not be an outcome.

Joining us to discuss is Cameron Khansarinia, he is the chief of staff to Reza Pahlavi, the oldest son of the deposed shah of Iran.

Cameron, your boss, the exiled former crown prince of Iran, made his pitch to lead Iran himself on CBS on Sunday. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REZA PAHLAVI, FORMER CROWN PRINCE OF IRAN: They trust me as a transitional leader, not as the future king or future president or future, whatever. I'm totally focused on my mission in life, which is let me bring the country to a point that they can make that free choice. That will be enough for me having some mission accomplished.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Are there specific plans that you and the crown prince have for him to take over temporarily in Iran?

CAMERON KHANSARINIA, VICE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL UNION FOR DEMOCRACY IN IRAN: Jake, it's very good to be with you. Yes, at the call of millions of his compatriots, I think you saw that on the 8th and 9th of January that his call, millions took to the streets. The prince is stepping forward to lead the transition to democracy in Iran. Those plans are outlined in a very, very transparent fashion in the Iran Prosperity Project, which is publicly available. The second version of that transition plan, over 180 pages of 13 different areas of managing the country's affairs was just put out last week.

So, it's all very publicly outlined his role, the length of that transitional period, as we see it, the multiple elections and referenda that would allow the Iranian people to express their views on the leadership, the future form of government, it's all outlined there.

And the reason that we put that together is we knew this day would come and we knew that the crown prince would be the leader that the people of Iran would trust to guide them through that process.

TAPPER: What needs to happen for the Iranian people to, quote, seize control, as President Trump puts it, of their destiny? Obviously, the crown prince couldn't go to Iran right now and just take over. How is this going to work?

KHANSARINIA: Well, first of all, Jake, the operations that we've seen over the past two days need to continue. The regime's leadership and its repressive apparatus in particular need to be continuously decimated. This is a repressive apparatus that has held the people of Iran hostage for 47 years with murders, chain murders, assassination, rapes, it's sent to the people of Iran and the people of the United States at the same time.

That's why President Trump's leadership and decisive intervention was so important to level the playing field for the people of Iran so that they do have a more even playing field to take over their institutions. And when the regime is no longer able to hold onto power through sheer violence and sheer brutality, as it did in January, killing 40,000 people fighting for their liberation, the people of Iran will be able to take over their institutions.

We're working as we speak on the plans with the crown prince to return to Iran. He said repeatedly, indeed, just this morning, again, publicly, that he's prepared to return to Iran even before the ultimate collapse of this regime in order to lead the final battle to reclaim Iran and to return Iran to the community of nations.

TAPPER: But what needs to happen? You said you refer to the people taking over the government. What needs to happen? What more help do the Iranian people need from the U.S., for example, beyond the military strikes? Because, you know, you can't get just from military strikes to democracy in Iran. There's a lot in between there. What help do the Iranian people need specifically to take control of their government?

KHANSARINIA: So, I'll answer that, Jake, but let's not discount the significance of this military operation --

TAPPER: Of course.

KHANSARINIA: -- in limiting the regime's repressive capacity, in removing these illegitimate rulers from power, so the people of Iran have that fair chance. In addition to this enormous help, this truly brave and courageous decision taken by the president, there are other means of support, some of those are ongoing, access to free internet. It's outrageous in the 21st century the Islamic Republic has shut off the internet.

[18:30:01]

The people of Iran live in an information blackout when it comes to social media, to information coming from the outside world, unable to share in many instances what's happening to them with the outside world. So internet access is a huge component to this so the people of Iran can communicate frequent freely.

So, the combination of those two, plus the organization that the crown prince and our team have built on the ground in Iran, the eternal guard cells that exist across the country that our team have been working on over the past several months, giving people instructions on civil disobedience, how to form small groups of resistance against this regime in all of Iran's 31 provinces.

So, the decimation of the regime, the empowerment of the Iranian people to communicate freely and training them and mobilizing them across the country will allow us to get to the point where the Crown Prince can return and oversee this peaceful and stable transition from this regime.

TAPPER: Cameron Khansarinia, thank you so much. I appreciate your time.

KHANSARINIA: Thank you. Jake.

TAPPER: The head of NATO saying today that the alliance has no plans on getting involved in the war with Iran, but can America's allies really stay out of this growing global conflict? I mean, the Brits were just attacked. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:35:00]

TAPPER: In our World Lead, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is weighing in for the first time on the U.S. and Israel's expanding war with Iran. Rutte praised the actions the two nations are taking on lockstep, but he also said, quote, there are absolutely no plans, whatever, for NATO to get dragged into this or being part of it other than individual allies doing what they can to enable what the Americans are doing together with Israel, unquote.

Joining us now is General Wesley Clark. He's a former NATO supreme allied commander. General, good to see you.

So, your reaction to Secretary General Rutte's decision to publicly stress that NATO would not be getting involved in this conflict.

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), FORMER NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Yes, it's the right it's the right decision. NATO, as an organization, it's not going to get involved against Iran, but individual NATO member countries can get involved and can help the United States and are doing so now.

TAPPER: We're seeing this war expand rapidly across the Middle East. Iran has not only launched attacks, missiles, drones at Israel, which attacked them, but against the UAE and Bahrain and Kuwait and Qatar, Saudi Arabia. How much further could this conflict expand?

CLARK: I think you could see some more terrorist strikes, maybe against bases in Europe and elsewhere, but what you've got is Iran understands a strategy, that is cause as much chaos as possible. Put the heat on the American administration. Cause its allies to call into the American to say, oh my goodness, you're wrecking our economy, please stop bombing Iran. I mean, that's the strategy.

And so it's really a function of how effective the air campaign is at eliminating the drones and the ballistic missiles and cruise missile strikes that Iran could deploy against its allies. That's the Iranian first wave of defense. They haven't mobilized their terrorists yet. They know when they do that, it's a use it and then lose it because that's not sustainable. So, that could be a last blast.

TAPPER: There are reports though, and just to interject, I'm sorry, but there are reports that Hezbollah, which is obviously an Iranian proxy, a group considered terrorist, has launched drones at U.K. naval forces in Cyprus. So, I don't know if you consider that a terrorist attack or not. It's by Hezbollah.

CLARK: Yes, sure. I mean, that's part of what they're doing, like Israel's going after Hezbollah. And this is Israel's chance to finish Hezbollah off, which is apparently what they intend to do by having mobilized their reserves and so forth. The real question, Jake, is how quickly can we get the Straits of Hormuz open and how quickly can we shut down the chaos that are Iran is trying to create in the Gulf and let the business go back to normal there?

And then it's a matter of, can you find the targets that you need when you continue the air campaign to put pressure on the regime, to make it cry uncle, to make it want to talk, to make it come apart, so the people of Iran have a chance to have their own government in place.

TAPPER: The secretary general's comments come as individual NATO members are trying to figure out their own response to the escalating situation. The British say that they're not part of the offensive, but they agreed that its military bases can be used for defensive strikes on Iranian missile stocks. How do you see this shaping up in terms of what our allies in NATO are going to do?

CLARK: I think they're going to allow us to use bases there. They're going to allow us to take weapons and munition stocks that have been placed inside NATO countries and use them if necessary. And they're going to provide all kinds of logistics assistance.

Most of them don't have the capacity to intervene successfully and do much to help us. They don't have the same level of precision weaponry, and what they have, they need to strengthen because we can't forget, Jake, that the real scene of the action is not Iran. It is Ukraine, and it is Vladimir Putin. And he does pose an imminent threat to Europe. Ukraine has to hold strong.

So, it's very understandable these allies may not be contributing a lot except let some logistics and some basing support for the United States.

TAPPER: All right. General Wesley Clark, thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

Since Saturday's strikes on Iran, more than 600 people have been killed.

[18:40:00]

Iran state media reported the most, 168 killed at a girl's elementary school. Ten Israelis have been killed in Iran's retaliatory strikes. That includes nine lives lost when a missile hit a bomb shelter near Jerusalem. Ronit Elimelech and her mother, Sarah, were two of those killed.

Ronit was a single mom. She was a volunteer EMT worker with United Hatzalah. The organization shared this video from 2024 when she started volunteering at the medical group at the urging of her 11- year-old autistic son. This was her then.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm a volunteer at United Hatzaleh because I fulfilled my son's dream. The assistant in his class did an activity and she is a volunteer at the organization.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Ronit was running to the bomb shelter with her three sons when she realized that her mother had been left behind. So, Ronit turned back to get her. The three boys survived. Ronit and her mother did not. May their memories be a blessing.

Big news in our Money Lead Today, the price of US Oil closed today above $71 a barrel, a level not seen in more than eight months from gas prices to Wall Street. We're going to discuss the direct impact of this war on your pocketbook.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:45:06]

TAPPER: In our politics lead, cue the music. The election music please.

(MUSIC)

TAPPER: All right. The election jam.

We're just hours away from primary day in Texas. The closely watched Senate primaries have garnered national attention.

CNN's Jeff Zeleny is in Houston, where Democrats James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, the congresswoman, are campaigning today.

Jeff, what are their closing messages in these final hours?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, Democrats are beginning their midterm election quest to try and reclaim power in both the House and the Senate. That starts tomorrow here in the first big primary of the year in Texas. And there is a barnburner of a Democratic senate primary, as you said with Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and State Representative James Talarico.

Now, Crockett is saying that Democrats need a fighter. She is going after the Democratic base trying to energize it. Of course, she has become somewhat famous in her retorts against the president, how she clapped back against Republicans as well. So she is basically trying to fire up all types of Democrats.

Her opponent, James Talarico, is taking a different approach entirely. He is trying to expand the Democratic bench, if you will. He's trying to find out moderate voters, some disillusioned Republican voters. But if you look at the early voting numbers that ended on Friday, more than 1.4 million Democrats have already voted in the Democratic primary, about 1.2 million have voted in the Republican primary. So, there is a sign of Democratic enthusiasm there is no doubt.

But at a stop earlier today here in Houston, Talarico said, yes, it's time for a fighter, but a different brand of fighter.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES TALARICO (D), TEXAS SENATE CANDIDATE: We're not going to beat the politics of division with more division. We're not going to win this race by shaming or alienating or ridiculing our neighbors. In my experience, when you extend an open hand rather than a closed fist, you'll be surprised by who takes that hand.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: So, Talarico will be coming here for his final rally of the campaign in just a few moments. And, Jake, it has been an extraordinary one. There is no doubt all eyes of Democrats are on Texas, which could offer perhaps a bit of a roadmap for the party going forward as they look to again try and retake the House and Senate.

What type of Democrat exactly do they want?

They have basic similarities in policies, but their styles could not be more different -- Jake.

TAPPER: Fascinating race.

Jeff Zeleny in Houston, thanks so much.

My panel joins me now.

Kate, the theory of the case for Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is she's going to really get people to the polls. And also, she's expanding the base by bringing people who don't normally vote. Presumably, a lot of African-American people, maybe a lot of young people.

The Talarico theory of the case is he is more moderate and could bring in a lot of middle of the road even lean Republican voters especially if Dan Paxton, the attorney general who's very -- you know, radioactive if he wins the Republican nomination, who do you think actually has a better chance of winning? KATE BEDINGFIELD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, I think the

demographics in Texas would tell you that somebody who can appeal to a slice of Republican voters is the person who has a better chance of winning the race. It is just a fact that whichever Democrat emerges is going to have to win some Republican votes if they're going to win statewide. That said, we've seen more Democratic turnout so far in early vote, I think than any other race prior to 2008. Obviously, also a year of great enthusiasm and ultimately a very big Democratic year.

So, I think let's look at the early vote. Let's see ultimately where Crockett is able to if she's actually able to generate some of these folks who have not come out and been reliable voters previously. And let's see if that theory holds up.

But there is a tremendous amount of energy I think, regardless of which whoever emerges, the fact that Democrats are going to be able to force Republicans to spend money on this race and to be concerned about this race, particularly if as you said, Paxton emerges as the Republican nominee. That's a good thing for the Democrats across the board nationally.

TAPPER: It looks based on polling that the incumbent Republican John Cornyn and just so people know like you have to win 50 plus -- 50 percent plus one to win the primary and if not, there's a runoff. It looks like there will likely be a runoff.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yeah.

TAPPER: That Ken Paxton, the very controversial attorney general, might come in first, but he's not anywhere close to 50 percent plus one, and will probably be a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton. And every Republican I know thinks Paxton's going to win.

SINGLETON: Yeah, I am in agreement with that. Unfortunately look, my biggest worry here is exactly what Kate just articulated. I don't want to see my party spending 200 to $300 million in one singular race, when I know its important for us to support other Republican senators and also Republicans who would like to keep their seats in the house.

Now the good news for us. Fortunately, there are less seats for us to sort of protect compared to previous midterms. Eight districts the president lost, a larger number of districts where he won around four points. And so, while Democrats will win, I'm not expecting them to win like they did in 2018 where you saw this huge Democratic wave.

[18:50:06]

So that is good news a little bit. But nevertheless, those are dollars that could be spent protecting those vulnerable R's versus going after and protecting the candidate who, quite frankly, isn't the most ideal candidate, Jake. You have Cornyn, who is a little controversial. I certainly don't agree with him on everything but he is a better person for the Republicans, particularly those down ballot races.

Kate and I were talking about this during the break. You want a strong candidate at the top to bring along all of the other candidates, because you want those voters to turn out. I am a little worried that you might end up suppressing some of that

TAPPER: Speaking of Republicans spending money in ways that might be hard to defend, the House Oversight Committee hauled Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before their committee to give testimony about Jeffrey Epstein in that video, testimony of last week has just been released. The first part I'm going to play for you is the moment she found that congresswoman, Lauren Boebert, Republican of Colorado took a photo of her that was then posted on the Internet against the rules of the testimony.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Particularly given that we have asked for a public hearing, if there are photos that are being released of the secretary, she is testifying, can you please explain how that --

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: I'm done with this. If you guys are doing that, I am done. You can hold me in contempt from now until the cows come home. This is just typical behavior.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We will go off the record.

REP. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-CO): I did post one --

CLINTON: Oh, for heaven's sake!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So, I would like to understand how that's permissible --

BOEBERT: Before the hearing was --

CLINTON: It doesn't matter. We all are abiding by the same rules

BOEBERT: I will take that down.

CLINTON: Yeah, well --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would like to take a break at this moment.

CLINTON: Yeah, I'm done for now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Okay.

BEDINGFIELD: Yeah. Look it was a circus. And I think her reaction underscored how much of a circus it was. You know, she and Bill Clinton asked for the proceedings if they were going to happen to happen on camera.

TAPPER: To be public.

BEDINGIFIELD: Republicans who said, no, we're not going to do this on camera. So, you know, to have Congresswoman Boebert furtively take a picture and put it out, she was absolutely right to be angry. And I think anybody who was following the story would agree that her reaction made total sense.

TAPPER: Shermichael, here's another moment. This time is when Hillary Clinton was asked about the insane, deranged conspiracy theory called pizzagate.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Your question is about whether or not she has reviewed any emails in the Epstein release files about pizzagate.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Correct?

CLINTON: Pizzagate was totally made up. It was an outrageous allegation that ended up hurting a number of people. That caused a deranged young man to show up with his assault rifle and shoot up a local pizzeria. I can't believe you're even referencing it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Shermichael?

SINGLETON: You know, these are serious moments there were over a thousand young girls who had their lives destroyed, and there's not enough counseling in the world that's going to make things better for those young women who I would imagine still deal with this to this day. Many of them probably have their own children.

And there are many men that we know from many of the images that have circulated across social media who have not been held accountable. And so, if we're going to have anyone testifying, I want to know who those men are. Let's put some of them in jail like they're doing over in the U.K.

TAPPER: And let's have some serious questions for the people who are actually involved in this horrific, horrific act. Thank you so much for bringing it back to the victims. Appreciate it. Thanks to you as well, Kate.

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in the Middle East expands. How soon could you see a serious impact on the prices you pay for gasoline? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:57:42]

TAPPER: Our money lead now. New high resolution satellite images show heavy damage to a Saudi oil facility after Iranian drone strikes. Global oil prices surged today, rising to a level not seen in more than eight months. The spike is expected to push U.S. gasoline prices higher, with analysts saying they could top $3 a gallon this week.

Let's bring in CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich with the latest -- Vanessa.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Jake, U.S. markets bounced back off their lows this morning with the Dow closing down about 73 points, while the S&P and the Nasdaq closed in the green. But airline stocks suffered over concerns of jet fuel prices and cruise lines stocks tumbled as travel was impacted in the Middle East region. Yes, at sea, but also commercial airports in the region, bringing passengers to and from cruises remain closed.

Oil prices were up by as much as 8 percent on Monday. West Texas Intermediate climbed past $70 a barrel, while Brent crude flirted with $80 a barrel. Those are the highest levels since U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June. Prices are spiking because oil tanker traffic has stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, which is off the coast of Iran, a critical passageway where 20 percent of the world's oil travels through this as tensions continue to escalate and then damage and closures of oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and Qatar are increasing nerves about supply and further infrastructure impacts there.

Now, as oil prices rise, gas prices follow. Gas prices have been low below $3 a gallon, but they've risen roughly five cents in the last week, according to AAA, and will cross that $3 threshold for the first time since December. The national average is currently sitting at $2.99 a gallon. But in the coming week, gas prices could increase 10 to 30 cents and upwards of 85 cents at some lower priced gas stations, according to GasBuddy.

But, Jake, it's worth noting that gas prices would have been starting to rise this time of year anyways, because the change to the summer fuel blend is more expensive and more drivers are hitting the road, thus more demand. But the war with Iran has just accelerated all of that -- Jake.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: Vanessa Yurkevich, thank you so much. You can follow me on Facebook, Instagram threads, Bluesky, X and on TikTok @jaketapper. You can follow the show on X and Instagram @TheLeadCNN.

If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app on your phone. If you haven't downloaded it yet, you should download it now.

CNN's breaking news coverage of the war in Iran continues all night. We're going to start now with my colleague Erin Burnett, who is "OUTFRONT" in Tel Aviv, Israel. Take it away, Erin.