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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Trump Says, U.S. Has Completely Destroyed 10 Mine-Laying Boats; Israel Issues More Mass Evacuation Orders In Southern Lebanon; Witkoff Says, Russians Deny Sharing Intel With Iran; Georgia Voters Decide Who Will Replace Marjorie Taylor Greene; Highest U.S. Storm Threat In Months Issued For Parts Of Midwest. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired March 10, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[18:00:01]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

The breaking news tonight, the United States has hit and completely destroyed ten inactive mine-laying boats near the Strait of Hormuz. That's according to a post from President Trump earlier this afternoon. He adds there, quote, with more to follow, unquote.

Iran's choke hold over the Strait of Hormuzh is becoming more dire by the day. Close to 15 million barrels of oil are stuck in the Gulf region, cut off from moving beyond this crucial water passage for 20 percent of the world's oil, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warning any ship will be attacked.

Sources told CNN earlier this afternoon that Iran had been -- had begun laying mines in recent days. Following those reports, President Trump posted, quote, if Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed immediately. If for any reason mines were placed and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.

If on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction, unquote. That post was only about 40 minutes before his announcement that the U.S. had destroyed the ten inactive mine-laying boats.

You've probably felt the impacts of Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz from 8,000 miles away or so here in the U.S. over the last 11 days, paying an average of 56 cents more for a gallon of gas from when this war began. The president and the White House are staying to their script, that those price hikes at the pump are nothing to worry about.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: A recent increase in oil and gas prices is temporary and this operation will result in lower gas prices in the long term. Once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved, Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation. (END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Let's bring in CNN's Kaitlan Collins, who's at the White House for us today. Kaitlan, the White House press secretary filled a bunch of questions today about the Strait of Hormuz and the rising price of oil.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, Jake. I mean, these wild swings in the oil market have been top of mind here at the White House, certainly top of mind for their voters and really for all Americans given the numbers that you were just showing and how much the prices at the pump have changed and just the swings that we've seen based on comments made by President Trump before the markets closed.

After the markets closed, a tweet from the energy secretary, Chris Wright, earlier today where he said and seemed to be announcing some breaking news that the United States Navy had basically taken and escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, something that the president has said for many days now is potentially an option here. But then quickly, Jake, that tweet was deleted, and the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, at that same briefing confirmed that the United States Navy has not escorted any tankers to the Strait of Hormuz yet.

And so obviously that changed because it had made people quite optimistic that potentially we were going to start seeing some more traffic moving through there. And instead, Jake, only the opposite seems to be true with Iran and this reporting now that CNN has that they are laying new mines there, with the president saying he has not personally seen reports of that, but threatening Iran should they continue to do so.

One other thing that Karoline Leavitt said earlier about this prospect of the Navy escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Jake, was that it is still an option if and when necessary. If you look at the markets, they may argue that time is now because obviously that is what is affecting these prices, why you're seeing so much concern over what this is going to look like going forward. But right now, Jake, we know that this still has not happened yet.

We did see an update from CENTCOM just a few moments ago, Jake, as I was walking over here to the camera where they posted this video showing the U.S. military going after several Iranian boats, including some of the ones that they say are potentially going to be laying mines or dedicated to doing so in the Strait of Hormuz. You can obviously see what is happening to them here based on this video from CENTCOM.

TAPPER: Kaitlan, speaking of U.S. strikes, there remain a bunch of questions about who's responsible for that strike on the girls' grade school in Iran. Iran says it killed more than 160 kids and also teachers. Did Karoline Leavitt get asked about that today? Have they acknowledged what we increasingly believe to be the case that this was a U.S. strike?

COLLINS: Well, she was asked, Jake, about those curious comments that the president himself made yesterday saying that a lot of nations have Tomahawk missiles, suggesting that Iran has some. We don't believe Iran has any that we know of. I'm talking to experts about this. They have said that they do not have them. There's only a small number of countries, the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, that do have access to these Tomahawk missiles.

So, she was asked about that comment by the president, and instead, Jake, just argued that this is still under investigation and that the president will accept whatever the results are of that investigation by his administration, something that they have faced questions on now on a daily basis ever since this happened.

[18:05:05]

But the reason it stands out, Jake, is that was not initially the president's argument to wait and see what the facts bear out. He said on Saturday, when he was asked on Air Force One by reporters about this, that he believed it was Iran, even though we have not seen anything pointing to that, the president said that's what he believed. Now he's saying he'll wait for the results of this investigation.

She also accused The New York Times of harassing the administration by reporting on this, Jake, though, obviously it is something that multiple outlets have reported on and is a key question in terms of accountability if the United States military was in fact responsible for this, which we just don't know or have confirmation of yet.

TAPPER: All right. Kaitlan Collins at the White House, thanks so much.

Don't miss Kaitlan on her show, The Source with Kaitlan Collins. Her guest tonight include Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut. That's tonight at 9:00 Eastern on CNN.

Here with me now in studio, Mike Sommers is the CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. Mike, good to see you.

Again, obviously a lot going on in your world. The way most average Americans are feeling the impact of this war is at the gas pump. AAA has gas prices up more than 50 cents per gallon since the start of the war. The national average is down $3.54 a gallon. The president has maintained over and over that all of this instability is just temporary. And, ultimately, this will result in lower gas prices. Is he right?

MIKE SUMMERS, CEO, AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: Well, I think this is the nightmare scenario that we've been concerned about for three decades, that the Straits of Hormuz would get shut down as a consequence of a major issue within the straits. That's 18 million barrels of oil every single day that are not coming to market. There's another 6 million barrels that are actually being shut in right now.

The top priority for this administration after they take care of the issue in Iran is to get the straits back open. This isn't just affecting American consumers but consumers all over the globe.

TAPPER: So, they talk about Navy escorts being offered for oil tankers and the president saying basically too, he said, I think, quote, show some guts, to the captains of the oil tankers. What's the response of your industry to that, that your tankers need to show some guts and go with the Navy through the Strait of Hormuz?

SOMMERS: Well, there's two things here. First of all, they did provide some kind of a backstop for insurance, that was an important step as well, and the escorts, of course, are going to be an important component of this.

But this is an industry that is very focused on workforce safety. We've been focused on safety for decades and decades. We're not going to put our workforce in danger in the Straits of Hormuz. We have to get them open. We have to make clear that this is not going to be tolerated by the world market. And I think what we're starting to see now is other countries put pressure on Iran to get the straits back open as quickly as possible.

TAPPER: Your industry -- there's a lot of money in your industry. I'm sure that they don't just rely on what they see when they go into a strait or a passageway. They have security. They have some sort of surveillance. What are you hearing about the Iranians mining the Strait of Hormuz?

SOMMERS: Well, we can only say what we've been hearing from the administration itself. Our industry is working very closely with the Navy and the Armed Forces right now. They're an important component to ensure safe passage through the straits. So, what we're hearing right now is we're not quite there yet, but we need to make sure that we get them open as quickly as possible. Because this isn't just about oil, this is about fertilizer and ammonia and food and potable water. This could be a real crisis if we don't get it opened soon.

TAPPER: And normally about 60 to 100 boats, oil tankers, get through the strait every day, and now it's zero?

SOMMERS: Zero.

TAPPER: The last time a global conflict impacted oil prices was when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and airfare prices shot up almost immediately because of the effect on jet fuel. So far, that has not been the case with this conflict. Do you expect that we will see that though?

SOMMERS: We have seen a lot of volatility in the oil markets so far. We just don't know what the answer is going to be at this point. What I do know is that American production is serving as a buffer for world oil prices.

When we were dealing with these kinds of situations 30 years ago, the United States was a net oil importer. Now, we are a net oil exporter that has provided the energy security that this country needs to make sure that we can have these kinds of conflicts and not see a lot of impact on the pump.

But the longer this goes on, the more volatility this is going to be, and consumers are going to continue to see prices go up. TAPPER: What's the price right now for a barrel of oil? What is it?

SOMMERS: Right now, we closed today at about $80.

TAPPER: $80. And how high do you think it's going to go?

SOMMERS: We just don't know. We don't -- we can't predict future prices. But, of course, as an industry, what we're focused on is stability and security for these barrels of oil and for our workforce. But we're very concerned that if the straits remain closed for, you know, a few more weeks, there's going to be a significant impact.

TAPPER: All right. Mike Sommers of the American Petroleum Institute, thanks so much. I appreciate it.

Hundreds of thousands of people have fled their homes in Hezbollah- controlled areas of Lebanon.

[18:10:01]

They're trying to escape Israeli strikes inside the country, retaliation for Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

CNN's Matthew Chance is live for us in Beirut, Lebanon. Matthew, what's the reality on the ground there in Lebanon today?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: It's pretty grim if you are from one of those Hezbollah-controlled areas. We're talking about areas of South Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley in the east of the country, and in South Beirut, the city from where I'm talking to you now, which is, you know, a longtime Hezbollah stronghold.

Those areas have been given basically broad evacuation orders from the Israeli armed forces, saying you get out to protect your lives are going to be striking Hezbollah-related targets there, and indeed, that's what's been happening. There's been a sort of incessant flow of airstrikes from our vantage point we've been seeing here in Beirut, in those southern suburbs, targeting what Israel says are Hezbollah- related kind of assets, individuals and, you know, and buildings as well.

And that's led to that enormous outflow of people seeking safety away from the frontlines out of the firing line. We're looking at more than 700,000 people now across the country that have -- that are basically on the move. And you can imagine the enormous pressure, Jake, that that's put on the Lebanese authorities that has lunged from crisis to crisis over the years. It now has this massive displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. And even with the backing of the various international and local aid organizations that are here in some force providing tents and food and soup kitchens and things like that, it's still a struggle to find people medical care, to find them food and to find them shelter, and so it's a big crisis.

And I have to say, you know, there's a lot of animosity that we're hearing about amongst ordinary Lebanese, people, you know, not from the Hezbollah areas, that that Iranian-backed militia has drawn this country into yet another conflict with Israel. So, there's a lot of anger and frustration towards Hezbollah about that right now.

TAPPER: All right. Matthew Chance in Beirut, Lebanon, for us, thank you so much. Stay safe.

Is Russia giving Iran details about the locations of movements of U.S. troops in the Middle East during this war? A top White House official weighed in on this today and he said, you can take Russia at its word. Is the White House really trusting Putin on this? Is that what he meant? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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TAPPER: Continuing with our World Lead, sources say Trump administration officials are discussing further easing sanctions on Russian oil as they try to combat the quickly rising prices due to the Iran war. The White House already loosened some of those sanctions despite multiple sources saying Russia is providing Iran with intelligence about the locations and movements of U.S. troops, ships, and aircraft in the Middle East.

But during an interview with CNBC earlier today, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff says the Russians deny sharing such information.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEVE WITKOFF, U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY: So, I can tell you that yesterday on the call with the president the Russians said that they have not been sharing. That's what they said. So, you know, we can take them at their word, but they did say that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: I want to bring in Democratic Congressman Sam Liccardo of California. Congressman, what's your reaction to what Steve Witkoff said?

REP. SAM LICCARDO (D-CA): Well, it's laughable. Of course, we should believe the Russians. I mean, with enemies like us, why would the Russians ever need friends? Look, they were lying to us back in the fall of last year when we decided to impose these sanctions on the sale of Russian oil because they were claiming that they were working on getting to a peaceful settlement with Ukraine. Obviously, they weren't, so we imposed the sanctions finally, and now we're lifting them.

Look, this makes no sense. This is clearly aiding our enemy. We had three separate sources tell The Washington Post, as well as additional sources telling the CNN, that Russians were providing intelligence to Iranians, and there's certainly circumstantial evidence that Iranians are getting much better intelligence than they had naturally.

TAPPER: Your State of California has some of the highest gas prices in the nation right now, an average of $5.29 cents per gallon. That, of course, includes some California State taxes added in. Is there anything that you or Congress can do in the short-term to help constituents struggling with these spiking gas prices?

LICCARDO: Well, certainly, there are many tools that could be considered. Last I heard, we have a pretty close relationship now with the new leadership of Venezuela. We have a strategic petroleum reserve. I don't pretend to be able to articulate every potential lever, but one thing I do know is we should not be rewarding the same Russian government that is helping our enemy kill American soldiers. We should have moral clarity about that basic issue, particularly in a moment of war.

TAPPER: You and Senator Rubin Gallego, Democrat of Arizona, wrote a letter to the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, demanding that the Trump administration immediately reverse the waiver on sanctions. he letter reads in part, quote, rather than performing the necessary contingency planning that would keep India and other allies supplied with alternative sources of oil, the administration's hapless approach has allowed Russia and other adversaries to profit from oil reserves previously constrained by sanctions, supporting Russian efforts to harm U.S. troops and thwart U.S. intelligence, unquote.

Have you or Senator Gallego heard back from the treasury secretary?

LICCARDO: Not yet, but we certainly look forward to the response. And, frankly, I think the American people demand a response to that basic question. If we were planning to go to war, why didn't we plan for this? It was certainly foreseeable that the Iranians would seek to use the Gulf of Hormuz against us in this way.

[18:20:05]

They're now laying minds in that channel. Of course, this would be a tactic of theirs. Why aren't we using some approach other than rewarding our enemies, in this case, Russians who are providing Iranians with intelligence to kill American women and men in uniform?

TAPPER: Is there anything Congress can do to force the Trump administration to put those sanctions back in place?

LICCARDO: Well, certainly, a majority of Congress could. Unfortunately, as you know, I'm not in the majority, but I certainly am on a relevant committee financial services, where I will be demanding answers and certainly urging my colleagues in the majority to get people into the hearing rooms to answer very difficult questions that I think both sides should be asking.

TAPPER: Democratic Congressman Sam Liccardo of California, thanks for joining us today. I appreciate it.

New York Police releasing new details today about the two terror suspects accused of tossing makeshift bombs near Gracie Mansion, where Mayor Zohran Mamdani and his family live. That story's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:25:00] TAPPER: In our National Lead today, the New York Police Department confirmed that explosives were found inside a Pennsylvania storage unit near the home of two suspects who are accused of tossing makeshift bombs outside the New York mayor's home Saturday. Police say that Emir Balat and Ibrahim Kayumi, who are 18 and 19 years old, traveled to New York from Pennsylvania. They were targeting anti- Muslim demonstrations that were taking place outside the mayoral residence. Both men now facing five federal charges. They told police that they were inspired by the terrorist group, ISIS.

Let's bring in CNN's Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst John Miller. John, where does the investigation stand? Tell us more about the suspects.

JOHN MILLER, CNN CHIEF LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE ANALYST: Well, in some ways, Jake, this is a smoking gun case. You have video allegedly of the suspects passing the bombs between each other, throwing the bombs at police and the crowd. So, from that standpoint, their initial charges are going to feel pretty solid. But there are questions and what you raise here is, okay, so where did they meet, where did they construct these bombs, and how did they know each other, things like that, that are still being developed.

TAPPER: What does the FBI finding additional explosive devices in Pennsylvania tell you?

MILLER: It tells us that the likely place that they allegedly made these bombs was probably the storage area. Considering the odors, the chemicals, the drying process that is involved in the homemade creation of TATP, it's the kind of thing that would have been difficult to do at home with other people in the house, parents, siblings and so on. So, they may have found in that storage area, at least the storage area and most possibly the bomb-making factory itself.

TAPPER: The attorney for one of the suspects, Emir Balat, says that there's no indication that the two men knew each other before the incident, but both suspects admitted to be being inspired by ISIS. How might investigators figure out if they were recruited by ISIS or if they were self-radicalized or whatever the reality is?

MILLER: So, Jake, that's a fascinating question because you have the attorney saying, look, my guy barely knew the other guy. Well, that raises the question, if that is, so how is it that they travel, you know, a hundred miles into New York City, meet at a demonstration and allegedly pass bombs between each other and then throw them? And these bombs were meant to go off when you look at the design of them.

And the answer may be looking at prior cases. If you look at the case from a few months ago in Detroit, those individuals largely met online, then got together in a conspiracy there, working with two other individuals who were in Montclair, New Jersey, working with another individual who was outside Seattle. So these are people who, over a period of months, developed these close relationships in these chat rooms where they were sharing propaganda, self-radicalizing, and then teaming up. That is a scenario that could be why two people who weren't associated as friends by their parents, by their other friends may have gotten to the point where they decided to do this together on a given day. The online radicalization thing is something that obviously they're extremely worried about in the current environment.

TAPPER: John, you previously worked for the NYPD. What kind of conversations do you suspect they're having behind the scenes right now about the potential for other attacks?

MILLER: I know what kind of conversations they're having, Jake, and this is the same conversations that are going on across the street, you know, with the NYPD detectives and the agents at the FBI, which is the Iran conflict is going on. Where are the Hezbollah agents who have been planted here? Even with the near destruction of Hezbollah that wouldn't have affected their agents overseas, in places like London, Paris, New York. Where are the Iranian agents from the Ministry of Intelligence who might be either the sleeper cells themselves or running sleeper cells recruited from criminal organizations? What they're looking at every day is, where are we missing it?

And to put a point on that, and I'll close with this, you know, just last week, they convicted Asif Merchant, who was an individual recruited by Iranian intelligence, paid money, who came from the criminal world on this side, who was recruited to kill President Trump when he was a candidate on the idea that after he was elected, if that came to pass, security would be too tight.

[18:30:06]

So, if anyone thinks that Iranian intelligence is not operating agents on U.S. soil, they should look at the recent cases.

TAPPER: All right. John Miller, thank you so much for your expertise, always great to have you.

Some passengers were stuck in TSA security lines for hours this week. Those wait times might not get better anytime soon. We'll explain why, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Our National Lead now, you're looking at lines that stretched for nearly three hours just yesterday. This is at Houston's Hobby Airport. This is a result of TSA shortages due to the partial government shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, which is entering its 25th day. As you know, Senate Democrats are refusing to vote for that budget until the administration makes a number of changes to immigration enforcement.

Here now is CNN Aviation Correspondent Pete Muntean.

[18:35:01]

So, Pete TSA employees are going to miss their first paycheck on Saturday. Are those lines going to get worse? PETE MUNTEAN, CNN AVIATION CORRESPONDENT: The good news now is that the terrible lines that we saw in the really dramatic video there are subsiding, but we're not totally out of the woods just yet, notably Houston Hobby, which was among the worst nationwide for long lines Sunday and Monday, at times three-hours long. Last check, the wait there is only down to seven minutes, so a huge change.

But even still, this is the alert from Hobby Airport, which warns passengers to arrive three hours early for domestic flights, four hours early for international flights. The issue here for airports is that this is pretty hard to predict. Airports say, TSA staffing can vary day-to-day and shift-to-shift, which is not good for the millions of people heading out for spring break right now.

We've also heard from union officials that represent TSA agents and they say that TSA officers are facing major financial strain right now because they only got a half paycheck two weeks ago. This week, they'll get a $0 paycheck.

I want you to listen now to what White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt just said about this during this afternoon's press briefing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LEAVITT: And so to any American out there who is struggling without a paycheck, we know there's more than 100,000 of you across the country, to any American out there who is showing up to an airport and facing incredibly long wait times in lines, call your Democrat member of Congress and tell them to fund the Department of Homeland Security. That's what President Trump wants to do. And it's completely ridiculous that the American people are suffering as a result of these partisan games that are being played by Democrats on Capitol Hill.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MUNTEAN: So, clearly some blame and mudslinging there, but this -- some context here. This is a big political pressure point. It was TSA agents not reporting to work that was partially responsible for ending the 35-day government shutdown that started in 2018, stretching in 2019. We saw sick calls increase during the most recent government shutdown at the end of last year. That was a record-breaking one. The union of TSA agents says workers are getting desperate now, and it says some are resorting to donating plasma and picking up part-time work as door dashers.

There have been efforts to make air traffic controllers immune from future government shutdowns. They're not impacted here. But the union of TSA agents says the same needed -- consideration needs to be made for them as well so this does not happen again.

TAPPER: All right. Pete Muntean, thanks so much. I appreciate it.

Here now to help travelers navigate some of the challenges from this partial government shutdown and the war in Iran is The Points Guy, Brian Kelly. Brian, every airport's different but we've all seen these insane security lines in Houston's airport. How much worse do you think the wait times could get if the shutdown continues and TSA workers don't get paid?

BRIAN KELLY, FOUNDER, THE POINTS GUY: Yes. And it's not just TSA. I flew in last night to JFK terminal one. I have global entry. Of course, that program's also shut down, but I also have mobile passport control. And even that line, I was with my one and one-year-old and three-year-old, and it was an hour and a half, almost at a standstill. It was pretty excruciating after an international flight, and this is for verified travelers. So, this could get a lot worse, and I guess that is the point of all of this, to put enough pressure on all sides of the political spectrum.

TAPPER: So, the war with Iran is causing volatility on oil prices. In addition to the government shutdown, the partial shutdown, drivers are already seeing higher prices for gas. We have not seen the spike in fuel prices for airlines spike the way that we did right after Russia invaded Ukraine, which is the last time international affairs has affected the market this way. How soon do you think it will translate to higher prices for jet fuel and thus for airfare?

KELLY: Yes. And let's be clear, there are a lot of routes where airfare is through the roof. You know, when you think about it, the Middle East is a huge connecting point, and all of those routes are now out for people who go to India, Southeast Asia. So, we are seeing dramatic spikes on certain routes, mostly international. But as fuel continues to rise, generally, the airlines hedge their fuel. So, we're still a couple weeks out from seeing broader increases. United Airlines' CEO came out today and said that they are likely. Air New Zealand, Scandinavian Airlines, they've already announced that they're going to be increasing. So, it's just a matter of time at this point.

TAPPER: How big have the increases been that you're talking about and how big might they be here in the United States when and if it hits?

KELLY: Yes. On certain routes, really, the biggest routes that have been hit, we've seen 50 percent increases Europe to Asia. Normally, the Middle Eastern carriers compete on that. And now that all of those routes are out, demand is through the roof for much fewer seats. But, you know, we're seeing us to India, those nonstop flights are now -- we're seeing up to 20 percent.

So, while we haven't seen the domestic increases yet for international travel, we're seeing a lot. And this is why I recommend to people use your frequent flyer miles. Use them as a hedge. Most airline programs allow you to change or cancel for free. So, if you see -- you know, you can use your airline miles for flight (INAUDIBLE) look good.

[18:40:02]

I recommend doing it, because, you know, who knows how long this will go on and prices could continue to rise dramatically.

TAPPER: All right, so that's one recommendation, use your frequent flyer miles. I assume you also think we should take out the insurance. You tell me if that's a recommendation. And also summer travel's coming up. Should we be booking now or waiting? KELLY: Yes. You know, usually it's about six to eight weeks before travel for domestic and then three to six months for international. So, if you're looking internationally, I would book now. There's insurance. You know, war is not covered under most travel. So, if you have a book or a trip that you want to book, you know, cancel for any reason, coverage is what you'd want to get, although it's very expensive. Also get rescue insurance. It's crazy we have to talk about this now, but most travel insurances won't rescue you if you're stuck somewhere. And so, basically, yes, I'm a proponent of insurance, but just look at the details.

TAPPER: All right. Brian Kelly, thank you so much. I appreciate it.

It's Election Day in Georgia. Voters are choosing whom they want to replace Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. Who on Earth could ever replace her? Well, we're going to look into some questions here. Is Trump's candidate a shoe-in? Might a Democrat pull off an upset? How do voters choose between the nearly 20 candidates on the ballot? Our panel's going to weigh in next.

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TAPPER: Our politics lead now -- all right, cue the election music.

(MUSIC)

TAPPER: Don't -- doesn't it just get you excited? Democracy. Right now in northwest Georgia, we're in the final hour of today's special election. Voters there are deciding who will replace Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.

And really, who -- who could ever replace her? In five years, she transformed from a staunch Trump supporter and 9/11 truther to one of Trump's sharpest critics. Although I think she -- she might still be a 9/11 truther.

The race is a free for all. Nearly 20 candidates are on the ballot, including three Democrats and 12 Republicans, one of whom former prosecutor Clay Fuller has won President Trump's coveted endorsement.

My panel joins us now.

And, Jeff Zeleny, you are here because you have reported extensively down in Georgia covering the race. You're not here to share an opinion. You're here to share facts. Who do you think has the best shot, and do you think it will likely head to a runoff?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, a few times I've been down in the district, one thing that is different there than here, Marjorie Taylor Greene is actually not hanging over this race much at all. Voters that I talked to were ready to move on. Even hardcore Republicans have just told me again and again that she was sort of taking too much of the limelight. So, this is effectively a jungle primary. So there's more than a dozen

Republicans, as you said. Also, Democrats and independents on the same ballot so that almost assuredly means there's going to be a runoff if no one gets over 50 percent.

So expect and watch for a Democrat named Shawn Harris to actually probably get the most votes tonight because he ran against Marjorie Taylor Greene back in 2024.

He got 135,000 votes, about a third of the vote. So, he is likely to emerge as a runoff, a contender.

So, the other big question is who else will? Well, Clay Fuller, who is endorsed by the president or will someone else? And Colton Moore, who's a former state senator, has been a firebrand supporter of Donald Trump but that's not what Speaker Johnson is looking for. They're looking for someone to fall in line, if you will. That's why President Trump endorsed Clay Fuller. He's much more of the establishment candidate, if you will.

So, the runoff is April 7th, so it's likely Shawn Harris and one of the Republicans. We'll see if Trump's endorsed candidate makes it through or not. It is a close race but also a special election at the beginning of March. Who knows what turnout will be?

TAPPER: CNN spoke with some Georgians today about what's top of mind as they cast their votes. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: People need to listen to God, okay? He stood for Israel and we need to also.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need to literally work on the federal debt. I mean, $40 trillion is way too much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Vox populi. What do you think is top of mind for most voters?

JONAH GOLDBERG, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I like that guy. I'm with him. Anybody who wants to tackle the debt is good.

TAPPER: I haven't heard the word "debt" in a long time.

GOLDBERG: Yeah. I remember when people cared about it.

KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Their own debt. Their own debt they care about it.

TAPPER: Yeah. I mean, the federal debt.

FINNEY: I know, I know

GOLDBERG: Yeah, I think this is one of these things where the day after the result, when the results are in, it'll be much easier to figure -- to find a narrative for it, but it's such a hot mess right now. Right, because there are these different, conflicting things going on. There's now -- it's sort of like, you know, every six months they come up with another subatomic particle, the gluons and the quarks.

And like, there's -- the MAGA coalition is breaking down into so many weird little sub coalitions. Are you MAGA but not America first? Are you Trumpist but not MAGA? Are you this? Are you not that? And there are all these different flavors, and it is entirely possible that a district that elected Marjorie Taylor Greene wants another bomb thrower, and its another bomb thrower, the establishment guy, or there's another bomb thrower, someone who's going to like out-MAGA Trump and be more like Marjorie Taylor Greene? I -- I have no clue.

TAPPER: What if Trump's candidate, his candidate, the more establishment guy Clay Fuller, prosecutor wins the seat? Does that signify that Republicans are still in line MAGA?

FINNEY: Oh, well, I'm sure all the Republicans will say so. I'm sure Donald Trump will say so. And it will be interesting to see, actually because Democrats have been very successful in special -- these off year special elections that we've had. We also saw, though, in the midterm election when Trump was last president, he didn't do well. And frankly, his endorsed candidates didn't do well.

TAPPER: He didn't pick people like Clay Fuller, though he picked a lot of --

FINNEY: Fair, but again, what does his imprimatur mean to those voters, particularly when -- I mean, I heard gentleman talk about debt. People are worried about their own personal debt and their own -- and their own costs. So, what kind of person do they pick in that instance?

[18:50:01]

Jonah and I were talking before we came out here. I do think it's interesting. So, first, she was like the darling, she's MAGA. Then when she splits, she tried to say, well, I'm not MAGA, but I'm America first. Then, the sort of talking point became, well, no, no, you have to be MAGA and America First to truly be a Trump supporter.

So, I agree with Jonah. It's interesting to see how it's breaking itself down. And we'll find out if this guy doesn't win, I'm sure Donald Trump will have some reason why it was Democrats' fault. That I can predict.

TAPPER: Why did she quit? I mean like, I understand not running for reelection, but like, she resigned after I think part of her pension hit the right deadline. I mean, it's -- it's kind of an odd thing to do if you don't have, like, I understand some people quit because they -- some amazing job --

ZELENY: Yeah.

TAPPER: -- you know, lucrative, pops up. I don't -- I don't know that she went to anything.

ZELENY: It's somewhat of a pension thing, but she was only in Congress for five years. So, we're not talking about that much money. And she came into Congress actually with quite a bit of wealth for a member of Congress. Look, one of the reasons she quit was that she was in this feud with the president. She was worried about her safety, her family's safety. And she just said, I'm done.

But I think a thing to look for tonight is Democratic enthusiasm. Yes, this is largely a Trump district. Theres no doubt. But are Democrats and independents going to be enthused about this? We'll see.

But she did not endorse in this race. She's talked a lot in recent days about Iran. So we don't know if that's going to kind of spark any kind of people who have some issues with Trump. The other Republican candidates have not really talked about foreign affairs at all.

But Colton Moore is someone who, once upon a time, to your point, he would have been a Trump endorsee back in 2018. He's the firebrand he was arrested. He was at the jail at the same time that Trump was he was thrown out of the Georgia state senate. But that's not what Speaker Johnson is looking for. They're looking for someone desperately to fill the seat to fall in line so that is why this is so interesting.

TAPPER: I love the fact that in this era, like having been arrested is now something you put you put on your CV to be the MAGA candidate.

FINNEY: Well, for civil rights leaders, it was a different kind.

TAPPER: That's not what I'm talking about.

FINNEY: I know, no, no.

TAPPER: So, I do want to note that like, we are rich -- we are like, not unprecedented. But I don't think there have been this many retirements from Congress since like 1930 or something. Right? I mean, like and most the majority of them, not all of them, but the majority of them are Republicans. A lot of the Democratic ones are have to do with age, not other things.

How bad are these headwinds expected to be for Republicans this November?

GOLDBERG: Well, the relevant thing is that they don't have to be that bad for the Democrats to take the House, right? The majority is so thin right now.

TAPPER: Two votes or something.

GOLDBERG: And like you talk to, you know, Karen probably has a better answer on this. But I talked to a bunch of Democratic insiders who say they expect an actual wave, not just the, you know, not just the historic norm but above that. But it could be half of what the historic norm is. And the Democrats will take back the House. FINNEY: Well, I think when you -- I will say when you talk to

insiders, but also when you talk to civil rights leaders and the people who are actually doing the work of democracy. And by that, I mean, working on -- can people will we have a free and fair election? Will people be able to vote and have those votes counted?

There's a lot of concern because particularly going back to Georgia, that raid of Fulton County, very troubling. Trump talking about nationalizing the elections, very troubling. And the repeal -- return of this talk about 2020 having been stolen very troubling because it's a cover we know for him trying to take a whole host of actions from the federal level to control these elections.

And so, there's a lot of concern about it. I think people do expect a wave if we have a free and fair election and people are concerned about that.

TAPPER: All right. Thanks, everyone. Appreciate it.

Tornado watch is in effect for parts of the midwestern United States right now as a potentially dangerous evening of severe weather starts to take shape. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:58:11]

TAPPER: We're following the breaking weather news forecasters issuing the highest severe thunderstorm risk in months for parts of the American Midwest. Nearly six million people now under tornado watches tonight. The latest tornado watch covers Oklahoma City and the north and central parts of Texas, which include the heavily populated Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.

On top of tornadoes, much of the Midwest could see soft softball sized hail, not to mention damaging wind gusts that could top 80 miles per hour.

In our last leads tonight, Alabama Governor Kay Ivey granted clemency today to murder accomplice Charles Burton after 30 years on death row. This rare move spares him from the execution that was scheduled for Thursday. Governor Ivey announced that she could not proceed in good conscience because Burton was not the actual shooter. He will now receive the same punishment as the shooter life in prison without parole.

In our money lead, a federal judge today scolded the U.S. Justice Department and Live Nation attorneys for secretly negotiating a settlement while the trial was underway. The antitrust trial centers around allegations that the ticket giant operated as a monopoly. More than 30 state attorneys general are also part of the case against Live Nation, but they claim they were only given one day to decide whether to join the settlement most of these attorneys general have not signed on raising questions about whether the trial will indeed proceed.

We end our show today with some good news in our "out of this world" lead. It now appears that the massive space rock once deemed the riskiest asteroid ever observed will not hit the moon after all. Last summer. You might remember scientists worried that any impact on the moon could prevent satellites from running smoothly and impact any moon infrastructure built over the next few years. But now, scientists seem pretty confident that that scenario is off the table.

You can follow me on Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Bluesky, X, and on the TikTok @jaketapper. You can follow the show on X and on Instagram @TheLeadCNN. If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app.

"ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" live in Tel Aviv starts now.