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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) Is Interviewed About Senate Votes To Limit Trump's Iran War Powers In Rare Rebuke; Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Steadily Increases Amid Peace Talks; Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) Is Interviewed About Lawmakers Examine Trump Administration's Public Health Agenda; Thune Hopes GOP Senators "Will Be Direct & Honest" With Trump. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired June 23, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN HOST: Huge thanks to my panel today and thank you for joining us. "The Lead" with Jake Tapper starts right now.

[17:00:31]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CHIEF DOMESTIC CORRESPONDENT: It's a bad day to brag about the stock exchange. The Lead starts right now.

Breaking news in the Money Lead, AI has rattled a nerve driving a major tech sell off on Wall Street just as President Trump falsely claimed the stock market hit a new record or new high today. We're sorting through what's really going on. Plus, more breaking news. A rare review coming on Trump coming from the U.S. Senate voting moments ago to limit his war powers with Iran. And outspoken Democrat will be here with reaction.

And Scotland's Tartan Army taking the World Cup by storm. CNN is live with them coming up.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. We start with breaking news. In a significant rebuke of President Trump, the U.S. Senate a short time ago passed a war powers resolution. It directs Trump to remove military forces from the conflict in Iran.

Four Republicans cross party lines to help Democrats pass it. In just moments, we'll talk with Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who's been leading the war powers effort.

Meantime, the president is due back at the White House at any moment after touting what he sees as his economic wins after months of rising costs brought on by the Iran conflict. Trump's first domestic trip since signing an agreement with Iran was to Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania, about 60 miles north of Philly there. He tour the Mack Truck manufacturing plant, praised American factories and turned to affordability.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We got here my first day the fake news is screaming at me, what about affordability? I'm only here one day. Remember, eggs were up about five times higher than they ever were. And we have -- prices are coming down right now at levels that you've never seen. And now with oil crashing, you're going to see something really amazing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It is fair when you look at the data to say many Americans continue to struggle with their high grocery bills and expenses. But Trump then continued discussing oil.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Yesterday, 19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz, a very beautiful place. That's the most. That's the most oil in the history of the strait.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: If by in the history, he means since March 1st, maybe. A quick fact check, though 19 million barrels, not a record before the war, an average of 20 million barrels of oil passed through the strait every single day, according to the International Energy Agency. And there is some good news on gas prices here in the U.S. they're down an average of 11 cents from last week. The president also falsely claimed new highs on Wall Street. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And we also want to work out a deal. You know, the stock market hit a new high today again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: That is not true. A global tech sell off escalated today. Now, to be clear, the sell-off is not directly tied to the war, but it is largely driven by concerns about the impact of possible U.S. interest rate hikes on debt backed AI spending.

We start things off with CNN's Kristen Holmes at the White House. CNN Business senior reporter Dave Goldman is joining us in New York.

Kristen, I want to start with you. In addition to the message about the economy, there's that new sign of how badly Trump needs this agreement with Iran to work. The Senate moving forward adopting that war powers resolution. What's the White House saying about this?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Right, Phil. And we should note this is largely symbolic. It doesn't require the president's signature and doesn't carry the force of law. And Democrats had been forcing multiple votes to try and limit President Trump's war powers over the last several weeks, months. But it can't be overlooked how many Republicans really started to show their support.

As you mentioned there are four Republicans there. We have the senators, Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Bill Cassidy, who President Trump primaried and basically kicked out of his current job. So he definitely has an ax to grind. Now the White House is unsurprisingly saying that this is not significant. They actually blamed Republican absences for this even happening.

But this is what they said specifically. They said that because this does not go to the president, they have no force of law, which of course we noted as well. And then they said that because of the ceasefire, there are no hostilities from which to remove U.S. forces as hostilities terminated with the ceasefire on April 7th. But again, this growing number of Republicans who is supporting this goes to show you where really everyone is starting to move to when it comes to the war in Iran.

[17:05:09]

And yes, it does appear as though they have the framework or as the vice president put it, the foundation of a house that they are still building when it comes to this deal. But you mentioned this too, President Trump talking about affordability. There is nothing less that the President wants to talk about than the war in Iran. He wants that to be over and he's wanted it to be over for quite some time, reporting this for months, he's been looking for an off ramp. And they hope that they have found that off ramp because he wants to pivot.

He wants the markets to be better. He wants the cost of living to go down, those gas prices to drop significantly before the midterm elections. Again, unclear what it's actually going to look like. But as you know, it really doesn't matter what it looks like at this second as we inch closer to those midterms. Once we get closer and closer, then it's really going to start to matter because people are going to be voting with their wallet.

MATTINGLY: Yes, that's a really great point.

Dave, over to you, I will candidly acknowledge I had kind of tuned out a little bit today during the volatile day on Wall Street until the president said markets had hit a new high. And I was very confused. Turns out I was justified in my confusion. They had not. But can you explain what actually happened today?

What's driving this?

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: Yes, you definitely see a sea of red here. This is the one I want you to focus on the Nasdaq, because that's where most of the tech stocks are. Now it did make its way over to the broader market. Now it all in South Korea. You mentioned the Fed. That is certainly the case that people are

concerned about that. But in South Korea today we had this massive decline. Look at that, 10 percent. And that has to do with two stocks that Samsung and SK Hynix, both of which fell dramatically 12 percent.

But it didn't stop there. It spread over to the United States where you see Micron, Marvell, Oracle laid off 21,000 people, it said because of AI. All of that is weighing on overall stocks. Now thing that you need to understand about why this is so important to you is that semiconductors, that's the chips that power AI, that makes up 19 percent of the overall stock market. That's twice what it was in 2000, remember the dot-com boom. So we are in an unprecedented territory here. Now the good news is when we are looking at the markets, we're not that far off from those all-time highs that Trump said. This still not a great day on the market.

MATTINGLY: Yes, certainly is not. Kristen Holmes, Dave Goldman, appreciate you guys, thank you.

Let's get some reaction now to that war powers vote in the U.S. Senate. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia is joining me.

Senator, we were talking before the show. I remember sitting with you in January after the Venezuela operation which seems about 10 years ago now and you laid -- you had a very clear strategy to get to this point, at some point. This is the 10th time you and your colleagues have forced to vote on the Iran war powers measure. The first time it succeeded. What do you think changed?

SEN. TIM KAINE (D-VA): Well, what changed was 100 plus days of war convinced Republicans to join Democrats in saying, you're right, this was not only illegal, it was foolish. Some Republicans believe the president has the power to initiate war for 60 days but then has to seek congressional authorization. Others have been watching as the consequences have been stacking up. Thirteen U.S. troops dead, more than $50 billion spent on the war, Americans paying more at the gas pump and the price tag is still being calculated.

And I think as time went on, more and more of my colleagues started to join us in voting to rebuke the President and say this war is unlawful. And Phil, this is a historic vote. Never in the history of the War Powers Resolution have both houses of Congress passed a piece of legislation telling the president, your war is illegal, get out of it unless Congress authorizes it. And the fact that this has been done with two Republican majority houses speaks volumes about the way the American public now looks at this very foolish war.

MATTINGLY: It's a great point and it's certainly a very different place than we were in when we were talking about this in January. There's no question about that.

KAINE: Yes.

MATTINGLY: But I do think it's worth, just for somebody who's watching this and saying, well, wait, if the White House is saying they're not going to abide by it and they believe it's unconstitutional, both this concurrent resolution but also the War Powers Law in general, what is the kind of mechanism to enforce here?

KAINE: Well, I'll tell you this, Phil. If they -- if they don't start up the war again, and that's what we hope, there may not be a mechanism to enforce and we won't need it. But if they start up the war again, once both houses of Congress have said, hey, Article 1 gives us the power to declare war, you started a war unlawfully, you need to stop it, you're going to see both congressional action and court action to stop this president. We don't expect the president's just going to follow what Congress says. That's not what he does.

[17:10:04]

But he does understand what it means when members of his own party start to defect and say this war is illegal and he should stop it. So I think we're all hoping that the war doesn't start up again. They continue the negotiation. They find a negotiation that enables everybody to move forward and we put this illegal and foolish war in the rearview mirror. But if they do start up over the vote of Congress, they're going to have a battle on their hands in the court system.

MATTINGLY: You are a senator who actually has friends on the other side of the aisle and actually --

KAINE: Yes.

MATTINGLY: -- works pragmatically on the committees you are on with Republicans and Democrats alike. The fact that there are four Republicans here is very notable. My sense of things is there are more who aren't publicly on the whip count yet. Is that a fair assessment of things?

KAINE: Yes. When we started this about, you know, a month or so after you and I talked, the president went into Iran February 28th. I'd already filed a War Powers Resolution, so I was able to call up the first vote on March 4th. We had one vote that day, you know, took us five weeks to get two, and then a few weeks later to get number three and a few weeks later to get number four.

There's another group that I'm talking to that are very much praying that this ceasefire holds and so they won't have to tell the president, don't go to war. But, yes, the American public from day one has thought this war was a really stupid idea and they've suffered by it. And if the president were to restart again, we're not done. We're going to -- you know, we're going to take more action. And I do believe there are more votes out there that we can get.

MATTINGLY: Democratic Senator Tim Kaine in Virginia, appreciate your time, sir. Thank you.

KAINE: Absolutely, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, gas prices keep dropping like a rock as the president wants or is there still some reason to worry here? Up next, we're bringing someone who watches oil markets very closely. Plus, what President Trump said today about vandalism at the Reflecting Pool that directly contradicts his comments from last month. Stay with us.

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[17:16:10]

MATTINGLY: Back with our Money Lead, let's talk about the state of the oil markets now that traffic has steadily increased in the Strait of Hormuz while peace talks between the U.S. and Iran continue. I'm joined now by Mike Sommers. He's the CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association representing U.S. oil and natural gas companies.

Mike, we always start kind of in the same place. If you're a consumer watching this, if you're in the audience, you're saying, hey, it's been going down pretty steadily at the pump. It was about a dollar less on February 27th. Walk people through how quickly they're going to get back to that point.

MIKE SOMMERS, CEO, AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE: So the national average is actually below $4 a gallon right now. And it has 100 percent to do with the fact that we've got the Strait of Hormuz at least relatively back open. What we're watching very closely, however, is that while there are a lot of tankers that are going through the strait that have been stranded there, there aren't a lot of tankers that are going in to refill. And that's going to be an important benchmark to watch.

MATTINGLY: Explain what you mean by that.

SOMMERS: Because essentially what happens is that you have one way traffic right now going from the strait to the export markets. What we're really watching is now seeing empty tankers going into the strait because that means that the threat level is down. People aren't concerned about going back in and refueling those tankers. So that's the thing that I think everybody should be watching right now. You're starting to see it, particularly on the LNG side, people going back in to refill.

And that's going to be an important component of this to make sure that we have two way traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz.

MATTINGLY: I read with great interest you gave some remarks yesterday, an event you guys held on energy security, where you refer to this moment as a defining moment where basically saying there are policy changes that we need that should be implemented and that this is the moment to do that. We learned a lot of lessons right now, even though we're not necessarily totally out of it yet. What is your level of optimism if a peace deal comes to fruition, that people don't just move on and say it was fine, you guys -- the U.S. oil industry did a great job filling the gap for 100 plus days. Why do we need to do anything at all?

SOMMERS: Well, during the last big energy crisis during the 1970s, the world responded. Henry Kissinger actually pushed policies so that we had strategic petroleum reserves around the world, including in the United States, that provided a major buffer during this crisis. In addition to that, we created the International Energy Agency to really coordinate those SPRs around the world and provide independent analysis for the world. We need to think about right now, what's the world response going to be to this energy crisis.

So API put out some thought starters for policymakers to start considering and they're really based on three main pillars. One, supply. We need to make sure that we have the supply both in the United States and in the Western Hemisphere to avoid the situation that we were just in. Two, we need infrastructure and that means comprehensive permitting reform that has to get done by Congress to meet the energy demands that we know are only growing. And three, we need resilience.

And that means how do we start thinking about making sure that energy flows don't just happen east to west, but also happen north to south. There are lots of big oil plays right here in our hemisphere. In Alaska, in Texas, of course in North Dakota, but also in other countries like Guyana where Exxon and Chevron are operating effectively. And in countries like Brazil that hits record after record of oil production. Countries like Argentina, and don't forget Venezuela, where significant flows are starting to come from that country as well.

MATTINGLY: Can I ask you real quick before I let you go, you also noted very rightly, deals come and go. Deals come out in frameworks and don't necessarily reach an actual outcome here. What is your level of optimism? When you talk to your members, what are they telling you about how are they planning right now? Do they think this is done?

SOMMERS: Look, we've been talking about getting the straight open for three straight months, and we're optimistic that the straight is going to remain open. And there are flows starting to move. We have to depend on what our negotiators are telling us. And I'm confident that as long as they stay at the table, those flows will continue.

[17:20:05]

MATTINGLY: Mike Sommers, always appreciate your time and perspective.

SOMMERS: Great to be with you, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Only a few hours left in key primary elections happening today. What to watch as the results roll in tonight and why there's so much attention on New York City. But first we're going live to Miami where Scotland's Tartan Army is putting their spin on a World Cup party. Stay with us.

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MATTINGLY: In our Sports Lead, a live look at FIFA fan zone in London right now as England and Ghana face off in the World Cup. The match is in Boston, but England fans hope their motto, football's coming home comes true. Both teams won their first match, three points for either team would secure a spot in the knockouts. England's lofty goal is to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966. It is 0-0 in the 60th minute.

[17:25:10]

You're all welcome.

Meanwhile, Scottish World Cup fans have made their way from Boston to Miami after drinking quite a few Boston bars completely dry, many Scots are taking a different sport for a spin. Baseball. CNN's Randi Kaye caught up with what's called the Tartan Army.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RANDI KAYE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): If you're looking for the Scottish World Cup fans, they're not hard to find.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We love to party. Any sport event. We love to drink. We love to party.

KAYE: Is the stadium going to run out of beer tonight?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, Absolutely. We need to phone up Scotland and say, can you send more beer? Because we're going to drink it all tonight.

KAYE: Scotland hasn't been to the World Cup in nearly three decades, so the soccer fans who came here to the U.S. for the games are certainly making the most of it. But it's not just soccer that has them cheering. It's baseball.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We love baseball. We know the one song we've got. It goes like this. And that's all we really know.

KAYE (voice-over): Scottish fans call themselves the Tartan Army. In between World Cup matches, they've been taking over stadiums in host cities. In Miami, the Marlins team dubbed Monday night's game the Tartan takeover after about 8,000 tickets were purchased by Scottish fans.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We are here to see Scotland play Brazil. So we thought we would just come and see the baseball and support the Fighting Fish.

KAYE: What do you think makes the Scottish fans so unique?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, no one else wears kilts. We have lots of fabulous songs.

KAYE (voice-over): And where the Scots go, the party follows.

KAYE: Many of these Scottish fans have never attended a U.S. baseball game, but that doesn't seem to be getting in the way of their cause.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He throws it and he hits it as far as he can. Is there more than that?

KAYE: Can you explain the rules of the game to me here?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As a Scottish man, I would say there's a man throwing a ball at another man who's trying to hit it out the park, and nine times out of ten, he misses.

KAYE: Do you think they should just use a bigger ball out here? Would that make more sense to you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I would see a bigger ball and a bigger bat. KAYE (voice-over): The Marlins lost to the Texas Rangers 4-3. But that didn't dampen the Tartan Army's spirits.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE (on camera): And, Phil, I don't think there is anybody happier in America right now than the Scots and the Tartan Army. I got so many random hugs and so much beer spilled on me last night at the game. But it was worth it. They are a great group and many of them are attending the game here again tonight. We're at the Marlins ballpark and we've already seen a few kilt wearing folks going by.

Not as many as last night were told by the Marlins that they broke an attendance record last night. They actually had more tickets sold on a Monday night for the game than ever before actually than since 2017. And they really do credit the Scots for that. But tomorrow night, as you know, the big game, that's when Scotland takes on Brazil in the World Cup here tomorrow in Miami. Phil.

MATTINGLY: Just outstanding. My expectations were very high for that piece and you soared over them. Randi Kaye in Miami, thank you so much. Awesome, awesome play.

[17:28:35]

Well, breaking news from Capitol Hill. We now know what Bill Gates told Congress about his connections to Jeffrey Epstein. And that's not the only new transcript coming out. A member of the committee that oversaw those interviews will be here next.

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REP. ROBERT GARCIA (D-CA), RANKING MEMBER, OVERSIGHT COMMITTEE: Secretary Kennedy and the Trump administration are making Americans sicker while stripping away their actual protections.

This is a health emergency that is happening in this country and every single American should be concerned.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: In our Health Lead, a joint public forum today with lawmakers from the House and Senate examining the Trump administration's public health agenda, including dismantling agencies and anti-vaccination rhetoric.

Joining us now, ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia. Really appreciate your time, sir. Today you highlighted a new report that reviews evidence from over 80 officials and medical experts who examined the Trump administration's public health agenda. I think my biggest question was, of all the things you found, what alarmed you the most?

GARCIA: Look, there's a lot in there that I think should concern all American families. The reality is that Americans are getting more sick, not actually healthier. Look, two things I want to point out that are really important. The first is the real destruction of our vaccination programs that are happening across this country.

We have found and spoke with numerous folks from the CDC, from HHS, that are talking about entire divisions being dismantled. We're talking about researchers, scientists, folks that are in charge of ensuring that people are vaccinated and safe. We're seeing, because of this destruction, things like the measles, obviously pandemics around what just happened with COVID.

We're looking at preparation for Ebola and other pandemics in the future. Diseases, they're now beginning to come back. What's happening right now around the world with Ebola, what's happening right now in the U.S. with the measles, should concern every single family.

And the investment in these programs is all but gone. In fact, people are losing right now their access to preventative medicine through vaccinations across this country. The second thing that we also realize immediately is the amount of money that is being stripped away. $16 billion has been removed for research, for programs to fight cancer, to fight HIV-AIDS, to fight diabetes research, just completely wiped out.

[17:35:15]

And so now what you have is some of the best researchers across the country at our universities, at our medical centers, now have had all their funding stripped. We are losing the battle as it relates to research and on pandemic prevention, and that is not making us healthier, it's making us more sick.

MATTINGLY: I do want to turn to the Oversight Committee's Epstein investigation, because just within the last hour, the committee released transcripts of its interviews with billionaire Bill Gates and former Jeffrey Epstein assistant Lesley Groff. In Groff's interview, you asked her about phone calls between Epstein and Donald Trump before Trump became president. I'm interested in what she told you about those calls.

GARCIA: Well, as it's clear from the transcript, she made it very clear that she actually did arrange conversations between President Trump and Jeffrey Epstein. Now, we'd known, according to Jeffrey Epstein, that they were close friends. He viewed him as very close to the President. And Ms. Groff made it clear in her testimony that she did connect them multiple times.

It could have been meetings, certainly there were phone calls. And so that is something that was important for us to understand. We have additional questions about that relationship, not just for Ms. Groff, but for other folks in that Epstein orbit. The reality is, is that she has a lot of information about why she connected so many women with Jeffrey Epstein, and so many victims point to Ms. Groff as someone that was deeply involved in the trafficking and abuse of women. And so all of that is important as we move our investigation forward. MATTINGLY: You accuse Vice President J.D. Vance of being a, "Much more central player" in the Epstein cover-up than previously believed. What's that based on? And where does your push to have the Vice President testify stand right now?

GARCIA: Well, look, I think the reporting has been very clear. J.D. Vance was hosting situation room meetings with top admin officials, the chief of staff, the head of the DOJ, the head of the FBI, directing strategy on how to exonerate Donald Trump from the Epstein files, on discussing Ghislaine Maxwell, talking about having Tucker Carlson interview Ghislaine to help exonerate Donald Trump. They were talking about pardons.

And so we have to still understand how many meetings did J.D. Vance actually lead in the situation room? What else was he directing the FBI and the DOJ to do? And so we, for the first time now, know factually that J.D. Vance was in the situation room having these Epstein conversations and strategy sessions. Why the situation room? This is a room for emergencies, national security. And so J.D. Vance has a lot of questions to answer. We have questions prepared. We've asked Chairman Comer from oversight on the Republican side to bring him in.

MATTINGLY: I think this is a good reminder for folks. This investigation is still very much ongoing. You have an interview with billionaire Leon Black set for this Friday. Given the extensive financial ties to Jeffrey Epstein, what questions do you need answered? And what would you consider a meaningful breakthrough for the committee's investigation from him?

GARCIA: Well, Mr. Black has an opportunity to actually do the right thing and be honest with our committee. We know that he was a key piece of how Jeffrey Epstein was able to accumulate so much wealth. We want to know from Mr. Black, how else did Mr. Epstein accumulate those resources? Why was all that money being sent to Jeffrey Epstein? And who else was providing him the amount of financial support that he had to commit these crimes?

In addition to that, we have heard from numerous survivors that have pointed to Mr. Black. Mr. Black has a lot, in our opinion, to answer for. Was he involved in the abuse of women and girls? Did he know others who were involved in the abuse of women and girls? Survivors want to ensure that Mr. Black is honest with the committee. He has been pointed to as someone that also could have committed abuse himself. And so all of those questions, he will be needing to answer to our committee just at the end of the week.

MATTINGLY: Earlier this month, Epstein survivors met privately with House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, brought documents from the Epstein files, including an e-mail list listing men in Epstein's orbit, Virginia Giuffre's 2015 testimony. Soon after, Comer said he would seek testimony from Alan Dershowitz. Do you have any sense of where that stands and how it kind of shaped the direction of the probe?

GARCIA: Alan Dershowitz is going to be in front of our committee. I think that's something that Chairman Comer has already made pretty public. The other thing that the survivors asked for in that meeting was to ensure that Todd Blanche would come before our committee to ask questions specifically about the Epstein files and the investigation. So Chairman Comer said that he's planning on having Todd Blanche into our committee.

We're expecting that to happen. That has been our request. He has been at the center of this cover-up and essentially the botched release of the files, the redactions that dock survivors, put the survivors and their families in danger. Mr. Blanche, certainly if he's going to become the AG, needs to be in front of the Oversight Committee.

MATTINGLY: Congressman Robert Garcia, busy day on multiple fronts for you. Really appreciate your time.

GARCIA: Thank you.

[17:39:58]

MATTINGLY: Well, we're expecting a big day tomorrow on Capitol Hill. President Trump will be there for lunch with Senate Republicans. Why there may be some tension in those conversations, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: We're back with our Politics Lead. President Trump may be in for a wake-up call during his lunch tomorrow with Senate Republicans about his push to pass the SAVE America Act, a voter eligibility bill. Here's what Majority Leader John Thune is expecting from his members.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN THUNE (R-SD), MAJORITY LEADER: Hopefully they'll come. It'll be a good back and forth, give and take, and people will be direct and honest, and I'm sure he'll be direct and honest. So, we'll just see where it goes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Trump hit back with more pressure on Thune this afternoon.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[17:45:02]

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have to be able to get voter I.D. So John is a leader and hopefully he can get the votes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Let's get right to CNN's Manu Raju on Capitol Hill. Manu, are we headed for a showdown, fisticuffs tomorrow, or what?

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, potentially. But typically the way these things go, Phil, as you know, the President comes up here, he gets a long stepwinder of a speech, it becomes a bit of a rah-rah affair behind closed doors. There isn't a ton of time for a back and forth, and it rarely gets contentious.

But it does come at a particularly fraught time for the President and the Senate GOP because of the President's insistent demand that they pass the SAVE America Act, which John Thune has said repeatedly, and has demonstrated on the Senate floor, simply does not have the votes to pass. Doesn't even have a simple majority of votes to pass. Trump has even called away, we're doing away with the Senate's filibuster.

There still aren't the votes to get rid of the filibuster either. And then you add other issues as well. Bill Pulte is the acting director of national intelligence, the President pulling back on the J. Clinton domination to lead the DNI. That causing so much concern within the ranks. And also how he's handling the war with Iran and this MOU that was signed between the U.S. and Iran, which has got enormous criticism from Republicans in the Senate. Those are all bound to come up.

But SAVE America Act, a number of Republicans that I spoke to today made clear that they needed to convey to the President that there is no way that this could pass in this Congress.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: Is this a mistake for him to continue to demand this?

SEN. THOM TILLIS (R-NC): It's an unachievable goal. Even if you get past the reality of having to nuke the filibuster, you're not going to implement something as sweeping as these bills and have it ready for prime time. This is a waste of time. It's a distraction.

RAJU: Are you concerned about the oil sanctions being eased right now?

TILLIS: Yes, I mean, my gosh, we're back to pre-JCPOA.

SEN. MIKE ROUNDS (R-SD): A lot of us have expressed concern that if we take sanctions off of them with regard to simply bringing them to the negotiating table, that that puts us at a disadvantage long term.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RAJU: And the big question would be, how will President Trump sell that Iran deal to his colleague -- to Republicans on the Hill? Will we hear any of the criticism that we heard from Senator Tillis and Senator Rounds about this issue? And of course, Phil, those two Republicans were not among the four Republicans who broke ranks today to join with Democrats to rebuke the President and calling to limit his war powers with Iran.

So there is a lot of dissatisfaction on different wings of the GOP over how the President's waging war with Iran, but will they bring it up with him tomorrow? That's going to be a big question we'll watch as they meet behind closed doors, Phil.

MATTINGLY: I always enjoy thinking about the very anxious Capitol Hill communicators trying to identify for their bosses which nondescript Capitol hallway. Manu Raju was standing in before votes. Manu Raju, I appreciate you, my friend, as always.

Well, my panel is here now. Mike, Manu makes a really great point about how historically lunch -- Senate Republican lunches have gone with the president. I've tried to game out, like, every different way this could go. Most of them end up with, like, everybody loving each other. But, like, this is a tense moment.

MIKE DUBKE, FORMER TRUMP WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: It is a tense moment, and, you know, this is the policy lunch, so he's coming to talk policy. And the way Leader Thune has run this is very different than the way Leader McConnell ran these. They was very top- down with Leader McConnell. Part of what Thune sold when he beat Cornyn and Rick Scott in the race for leader was that, I want to open up the conversation. I want everybody to be heard. And he's really delivered on that in these policy lunches. So I think he's anxious, I would assume.

He's anxious. Maybe he can just sit there and let others talk to the president about this. But there aren't the votes there for the SAVE Act. There aren't the votes there to throw out the filibuster. And this issue keeps coming up, and it keeps derailing every time the Republicans in the Senate seem to have progress and movement forward. This SAVE Act comes up, and it just derails what's common.

MATTINGLY: Yes, I don't envy the position. He can't invent two, three, six, eight votes out of thin air, which is always the biggest holdup here for somebody who's tried to do everything the President wants legislatively.

KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Which I'm sure Trump doesn't understand that math.

MATTINGLY: Well, it's, you know --

FINNEY: Not his kind of math.

MATTINGLY: You're just not trying hard enough.

FINNEY: Exactly. Seriously.

MATTINGLY: That's what my teachers told me in school.

FINNEY: Exactly.

DUBKE: Try a little harder.

MATTINGLY: I think one of the things that, you know, Thune told CNN yesterday, like, he wants his members to speak up.

FINNEY: Yes.

MATTINGLY: To be candid with the President. Do you think that will actually happen behind closed doors?

FINNEY: It depends. I think, well, certainly the members who are no longer in the game. MATTINGLY: The FOMO caucus?

FINNEY: Exactly. They have no problem. But, look, I would imagine they're looking at the harsh reality that these guys need something to campaign on for some of the members who are in tough races. And when you know that the Iran war is wildly unpopular, this MOU is very, you know, it's very fluid.

[17:50:01]

No one's quite sure what's really in it and what's not in it. We're spending all this time talking about, you know, this reflecting pool rather than kids getting kicked off SNAP and healthcare and other concerns that people have. You can't go home and say, hey, I passed a voter I.D. bill and think that that's going to win you the vote.

So I would imagine, I think Mike's right, Thune is probably also like, I need him to hear it from other people, not just me, that this is real and that when I tell you the votes aren't there, the votes really aren't there and that we're not -- and, of course, the other dynamic, Trump is feeling the pressure that with the midterm elections, if we should have one and if it gets to go how it should, he's going to be facing the voters, the accountability from the voters.

And it's not probably looking good for him. So he's putting pressure on now, it seems, before running the risk of not having the same kind of control.

DUBKE: Just quickly, I'll add this. The whole dynamic may change tomorrow. The President was in Pennsylvania talking about affordability issues, about jobs, about all of that. That's maybe the issue that he talks about tomorrow and they all come out holding hands.

MATTINGLY: You really think so, though? And I'm not --

DUBKE: And saying the same stuff.

MATTINGLY: -- I promise you I'm not being strict when I say this. He doesn't like talking about it. I know he knows his members want it. But in his mind, it's not something that resonates with the people that come to his rallies. He doesn't think it's a message that works.

DUBKE: This isn't a rally. This is a policy lunch. And when you know you're walking into a situation in which you are going to have these major disagreements, maybe just change the subject a little bit. I wouldn't be surprised.

FINNEY: That's not how he rolls. He is the kind of guy, we've seen it over and over again, no matter what the event is, we've seen him do it in the Oval Office, he will say what is on his mind, what he wants to talk about. So if he wants to go in there and say, you've got to go sell this Iran deal. Why aren't you out there defending me?

DUBKE: He may say that, but on the SAVE Act and the filibuster, I don't think he wants to talk about a loss. And I just don't see with --

FINNEY: It's not good at hearing the truth.

DUBKE: Well, there just aren't the votes there. And they're not moving. They're not votes coming from people that are waffling.

FINNEY: We agree.

DUBKE: They're just not there.

FINNEY: He's not there.

MATTINGLY: OK, Karen, I want to ask about, obviously, the most important policy issue that exists right now, the reflecting pool.

FINNEY: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Which we're just going to keep talking about, because the President keeps talking about it on some level. The President posted new photos today of the reflecting pool, looking less green, maybe not quite so American flag blue. He talked about the six arrests police have made in connection to vandalizing the pool. I want to play that and something else he said about his renovation back in May. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Somebody went in with a knife and cut it. They cut it up good, and then they cut a 200, 350-foot slip in the form of lots of little slips, real horrible stuff.

This will last for at least 50 years. You'll never have a leak. It's very strong. You couldn't -- if you had a knife, I don't want to give anybody ideas. If you had a knife, you can't even cut it. It's so strong, so powerful. It's like powerful rubber.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: He didn't clarify what kind of knife.

FINNEY: No.

MATTINGLY: As he said, little cuts, so you don't know how. I feel like we would have seen that. There's, like, cameras on it at all times.

FINNEY: I have noticed that, yes.

MATTINGLY: To be clear, don't vandalize stuff. Like, that's stupid.

FINNEY: Good, basically. Look --

MATTINGLY: You should get in trouble if you do. However --

FINNEY: Getting serious for a moment. You know, today, ProPublica came out with a report, 770,000 children have been kicked off of SNAP because of the big, ugly bill. And our President thinks that's what he should be spending his time talking about. It's really disgusting. I mean, it's such a microcosm for -- the guy can't tell the truth to save his life. He literally has to spend his time making up stories because he's so petty about what happened.

Just say, you know what? We're just going to drain it and we're going to repaint it. You don't have to go into these fantastical stories about people who vandalize it and we're arresting people. I mean, just accept it. Instead, he cannot accept you made a mistake. And instead, we get the lies. It's costing more than he said it was going to. I mean, it's such a microcosm of the disaster of this presidency.

DUBKE: I could not disagree with you more for this particular reason. And I -- this is where I do give the President high praise. The beautification of Washington, D.C. was long overdue. Now, whether or not this particular paint job and knife work in the reflecting pool is a reflection on that, is -- we can debate it. But God, we're talking about this a lot.

I think -- I don't know if we're talking about it because he's talking about it or we're talking about it. But ultimately, if you do go around Washington, I've had a chance recently, this city does look better than it did last year. And it looks better than it has in the last 10 years. And I think there's some value to that.

MATTINGLY: It is a vicious cycle.

FINNEY: But not the reflecting pool.

MATTINGLY: We're not sure who's talking about it first. Everybody just keeps talking. It's a bad thing.

FINNEY: Everyone's talking about it.

MATTINGLY: Karen Finney, Mike Dubke, appreciate you guys. Stick around. We're going to talk more in a little bit.

[17:54:52]

All right, a lot more to talk about at the top of the hour, including a big day in American politics, primary election day in several states. We'll be talking about the notable names vying to become the face of Manhattan in Congress, that's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Authorities say the gunman yesterday's deadly shooting in Montreal, Canada was targeting police. One of two people killed was a police officer, 34-year-old Mohamed Benredouane, the first officer killed in a shooting in Montreal in 24 years. The other victim was Michael Mizrahi, a Jewish man from Israel.

The police said the gunman used a long gun to open fire on the officers outside the hotel. Officers fired back, killing the man. Today investigators are reviewing a 100-page document they believe the gunman wrote. Law enforcement sources say the writing references the insult or involuntary celibate ideology where mostly men blame women and society for their lack of sexual or romantic attention. [17:59:55]

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. This hour, it's election night in America and all eyes are on a series of high profile races in New York. How much power does the Kennedy name still carry?