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The Lead with Jake Tapper

CNN Poll: 24 Percent Of Independents Approve Of Trump's Job Performance; Manchin Re-enters Political Orbit With New Independent Experiment; Settler Attacks Drive Palestinian Christians Out Of The West Bank; Wisconsin Election Officials: "Don't Bet On Your Ballot". Aired 5-6p ET

Aired July 29, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: All right. Thanks to my panel. Really appreciate you all being here. This was a great conversation today.

Thanks to all of you at home for watching. We really appreciate you as well. Don't go anywhere. Jake Tapper, Jake Tapper is standing by for "The Lead."

Hi, Jake.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: Hey, Kasie. How you doing? We're going to look for more tomorrow in "The Arena."

HUNT: See you tomorrow.

[17:00:26]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: A record 73 percent of the American people say that President Trump has the wrong priorities, 73 percent. The Lead starts right now.

On inflation and Iran and the economy, even his overall job performance, a brand new CNN poll shows President Trump is very underwater and as far as the American people are concerned, clearly very distracted. Why would they think that about the man who today talked extensively about the need to remodel Dulles Airport. What this may signal about politics in America right now. Plus, we're to talk about it with a man who often found himself in the center of it all, former Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

Plus, a key confirmation vote set for tomorrow. And Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is in serious risk of not getting the permanent gig. The Republicans who could sink his confirmation. And a CNN special report revealing what is fueling harassment, intimidation and attacks on Christians in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

The Lead tonight, President Trump's approval rating hitting an historic new low as Americans grow increasingly more bleak about staple issues of his second term and say his priorities are far from in line. This new CNN poll has the president at just a 34 percent approval rating. For context, this is the same career low of his first term after the January 6th insurrection. So you know, that's got to be pretty bad.

The president hit a new low among Republicans, too, with only 19 percent of his own party now saying they're enthusiastic about the rest of his second term. That's down nearly 20 points from last spring. The sinking numbers tie back to a range of connected issues. A majority of Americans are displeased with the president's focus on construction projects during his second term, as he announced today that renovations are going to begin on Virginia's Dulles Airport imminently.

Also, more Americans now expect the Iran war to be headed towards a long term conflict as around three quarters say the rise in gas prices, one extremely tangible impact of the war has caused them some financial hardship permanently -- personally. A similar number say the president has not gone far enough to reduce the price of everyday goods that was a key campaign promise of his from 2024.

And speaking of campaigns, all this comes as the November midterm elections are only 97 days away. The president so far has given his party very few domestic policy bright spots to run on his approval ratings on election integrity and voting rights, on immigration and on federal government management all sit slightly above his overall approval, although all of them still a ways from even 50 percent approval.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill today, two Senate Republican incumbents Trump has battled with, Thom Tillis in North Carolina and John Cornyn from Texas, whom Trump ousted by endorsing a primary opponent earlier this year. Both of them are threatening to tank the confirmation of Trump's chosen attorney general nominee, Todd Blanche. Both are on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Trump said this afternoon he had not heard there was any problem.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I thought he's -- I thought it was pretty routine because he's so good. You just wouldn't find a better person. So I don't know, maybe John Cornyn is upset with me because I didn't endorse him. I don't know what it is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: You think? As ye so, so shall ye reap, Mr. President.

Let's talk about this with somebody who's been willing to criticize both Republicans and Democrats. We have with us former US Senator Joe Manchin, now an independent from West Virginia. He joins us with his daughter, Heather Manchin. And they are launching an effort for when it comes to independence. And we'll get to that in one second. But so much news, and I want to know, Senator, today's new CNN poll shows the president's approval rating at a new low. And the number drops even lower among independents, your key demographic group. Only 24 percent of independents approve of his job performance. That is canary in a coal mine numbers. What impact might that have on midterms?

JOE MANCHIN, (I) FORMER U.S. SENATOR: Well, I think it's going to have a tremendous impact. Midterms are kind of volatile anyway, with all that in the mix now, what you just think of polls.

Jake, my wife and I went to the grocery store today, and every time I go, I'm just amazed. I said, how do people make it? Just the two of us, we bought for what it cost just for us. I said, just think of people with kids, and no one seems to be feeling that pain. They're not basically transmitting that I'm doing everything, I understand and we're going to do everything we can to help you. They don't think there's anyone there on either side of the aisle that cares.

[17:05:12]

They're so immersed in their parties, the D and the R identity. And that's why Heather and I have got the Independent Leadership Council Americans together. Everything is -- listen, they say, Joe, why did you become an independent? I said, I like both sides. I like to work with both sides.

I don't agree with both sides and I don't want to be identified because right now you're guilt by association. I'm not a threat to anybody as an independent. But I can tell you if you don't start putting the country first, if you don't start taking care of the people, they're going to take care of you and get rid of you. And that's what we think. A true independent coming to Congress and not caucusing with either one, making decisions based on what's great for the country.

Forget about the party. The parties have already taken everything from us.

TAPPER: Yes.

J. MANCHIN: Founding -- our Founding Fathers never ever talked about a party. The only time I ever heard about in history is when George Washington warned us, beware of the political parties so they can usurp the power from the people.

TAPPER: Heather, you talked to a lot of independents. What do you hear?

HEATHER MANCHIN, CHAIR, INDEPENDENT LEAD COUNCIL: Forty-seven percent of the population now identify as independent. Sixteen states, 106 districts that have more independents than Republicans and Democrats but not one member of Congress.

TAPPER: Well, they're two senators, right? But Bernie Sanders and Angus King, they both generally caucus with Democrats.

J. MANCHIN: Yes. H. MANCHIN: And the only -- the only person in modern history out of Congress that's been elected outside the two party system is Angus King. Everybody else has run on the party platform. So we've said if we can do something that's never been done before, run outside the two party system and once you get there, govern independently, don't caucus with either party, work with everyone. Do -- you know, do what no one seems to have the ability to do, which is not be a reliable party line vote and cause some discussion, negotiation, conversation, about, as you just pointed out, all the huge key problems that our country's facing and not anything's getting done.

TAPPER: One of the things that does seem to happen when members of the Senate Republican Party are on their way out, especially if they have butted heads with President Trump, is they find this sense of independence sometimes before they butt heads with Trump, often afterwards. We're seeing this with Thom Tillis in North Carolina who butted heads before and then decided he was going to retire. And then John Cornyn, who Trump endorsed his opponent in the primary and now they are both putting up a fight about this anti-weaponization fund and whether or not they're going to endorse Todd Blanche.

J. MANCHIN: Yes. The funny thing about that is 20 years ago, you know, I had never given much thought about term limits. And I was at a town hall meeting in West Virginia and a lady in the back got up and says, Joe, I wish you were for town -- for term limits.

TAPPER: Term limits.

J. MANCHIN: Yes. And I said, her name was Susie, I said, Susie, let me just tell you why you're going to lose basically a lot of skill sets, you're going to lose a lot of technical knowledge, a of lot of experience. People know how the place works. And I was giving her everything why I did not --

TAPPER: Sure.

J. MANCHIN: -- support it.

TAPPER: We've all heard the argument. Yes.

J. MANCHIN: She says, think about this, Joe. Just think if you were for term limits, maybe we get one good term out of you. Jake, I had no comeback. I said, Susie, I'm in.

From that day forward, I have been for term limits because it'll give you courage you've never had.

TAPPER: Yes.

J. MANCHIN: And we're seeing it. And these are good people on both sides. These are my friends on both sides. They don't want to be where they're at and they hate to get caught in this trap and they've got to rise above this.

And an independent, being independent will set you free. You don't own your soul -- owe your soul to the party. You owe it to the people that elected you and to the Constitution you made an oath to.

TAPPER: But we've seen people become independents and run for reelection and have problems. Your friend --

J. MANCHIN: Sure.

TAPPER: -- Kyrsten Sinema, she decided to not run for reelection. She became an independent. She was probably going to lose her primary in the Democratic Party to a more progressive now senator, Ruben Gallego. We see with John Fetterman right now, very unpopular with the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, more popular with Republicans. If he runs for reelection, he could lose in the primary as a Democrat, but he could become an independent.

H. MANCHIN: Right. So what -- so to that point, it's never been done before. We know it's very difficult and that's why we looked at this as an experiment. Are there a handful? We're not talking about 50 seats, you know, 100 seats.

We're talking about can we one or two in the Senate, two or three in the House that can get in there and have the ability to govern independent they're running outside the system. So they're not primaried. But we know, as you know, all the hurdles to just run as an independent, the amount of signatures varies by state, by state. But as you break down these barriers and we could punch, you know, our finger in the dam, I think that if we can show it can be done and give a voice to 47 percent of America, then Katie bar the door. And then -- but the problem is everybody says it can't be done, it's never been done.

[17:10:09]

All the hurdles, we believe perhaps the perfect storm has happened. The amount of independents, the mass exodus from the parties, the disenfranchised, the feeling in the country at an all-time low, as you just said about the administration, the feeling of government, if all of that can come and be fueled in the right way, that somebody can go in there and say, I'm going to represent my, my state, my country and listen to everybody, everyone's got a good idea, or whoever's got the good idea, I'm willing to negotiate and operate under that premise.

J. MANCHIN: Here's the big thing, Jake.

TAPPER: Yes.

J. MANCHIN: How did the system get to where the party's got all this power? They had control the primaries. They control the process of how you -- who you vote for. The average in the last 20 -- in 2024, the average across the country of primary people turning out is 21 percent, the lowest ever. They basically -- and that's their mode of operandum, they want to control that primary because they can control --

TAPPER: Yes.

J. MANCHIN: -- extreme left or extreme right. And -- TAPPER: Although they've lost control of that to a degree because the

Tea Party came up in 20 -- in the 20 aughts, whatever.

J. MANCHIN: And now --

TAPPER: And now you have the DSA times.

J. MANCHIN: The DSA. Sure.

TAPPER: Yes.

J. MANCHIN: Well --

TAPPER: Let me ask you a question, how much are you following what's going on -- going on out west in these Senate races where basically there's an entrenched incumbent Republican and then there is a Democrat who is not as popular as an independent and the Democratic candidates are dropping out just so that there can be this independent. And I know -- I think it's happening in Nebraska, Montana, maybe Idaho. I might be getting those states wrong. If so, I apologize. But are you following that at all?

J. MANCHIN: Oh yes, we're following it and watching what's happening because basically people are saying enough is enough. How many times have you heard, oh, if you're an independent, you're just wasting your vote?

TAPPER: Right.

J. MANCHIN: Don't you think you've already wasted it? How long have you wasted? What have you received while you've been voting? We're giving you something new. A person that basically is a true independent.

They might have been a D, they might have been an R, but they were all independent minded like most Americans. And now they're running as an independent. They sign a pledge that they will remain an independent when they get here. They will not caucus with either side, but they'll work with both sides when the best ideas will help the country.

TAPPER: Well, I'm in --

J. MANCHIN: Focus on why they're serving.

TAPPER: I'm an independent. You have to sell me on the whole thing.

J. MANCHIN: Well --

TAPPER: I just wish I could vote in primaries because here in D.C. we can't.

J. MANCHIN: Well, you're paying for them.

TAPPER: I'm sure am.

J. MANCHIN: You're paying for the primary. TAPPER: I'm paying for a lot.

J. MANCHIN: You're disenfranchised. I'm disenfranchised. We're all disenfranchised as Independents. How did that happen?

TAPPER: Well --

J. MANCHIN: Right to vote in '65, the vote -- Voting Rights Act.

TAPPER: Come back soon and talk about. OK?

J. MANCHIN: Oh, we want to. We want you to talk a little bit more about it, Jake. Help us. We need help. We're going to do it.

TAPPER: I just told you I'm an independent. I don't know what more do you want from me --

J. MANCHIN: We're going to -- we're going to change --

TAPPER: -- that my hurt you.

J. MANCHIN: We're going to change the country. No.

H. MANCHIN: No.

TAPPER: Senator Manchin, Heather Manchin, thank you so much.

H. MANCHIN: Thank you.

TAPPER: Really, really appreciate it.

We do have some breaking news in our Money Lead because the worst drop for the Dow in more than a year after the vote to hold interest rates. What today's decision means for your money and the state of the U.S. economy. And breaking news on Capitol Hill, meetings right now trying to save the confirmation of Todd Blanche ahead of tomorrow's key confirmation vote. We have a live report from the Hill next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:17:04]

TAPPER: We have some breaking news for you on Capitol Hill. There's new movement on that pending Judiciary Committee vote tomorrow for Todd Blanche, who is up for the permanent role of Attorney General. Let's get right to CNN's Manu Ja -- Manu Raju, who's outside the office of Senator John Cornyn, a key vote who has expressed skepticism about Blanche.

And Manu, Cornyn is one of two Republicans threatening to block the vote in the committee. What's going on?

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's still unclear whether or not they can win his vote ahead of that critical committee vote tomorrow morning. And right now it is unclear whether or not that vote in fact will go forward amid concerns major concerns raised by John Cornyn along with Senator Thom Tillis over the so called anti-weaponization fund, the Justice Department tried to move forward with a $1.8 billion fund and also a deal with and how to deal with future audits and past audits involving the president, his family members and the like, and how they may deal with tax enforcement issues involving the president. All those are part of a negotiation that are happening behind the scenes.

Now just moments ago, Chuck Grassley, along with Thom Tillis, did leave this meeting with John Cornyn in Cornyn's office. And Grassley indicated that there's still some work to do. He said that we are, quote, "working on getting a solution," suggesting that perhaps the solution isn't quite there yet. And then Thom Tillis, who's been sounding more optimistic than John Cornyn, has said, quote, "every discussion we've had like this is taking us a step closer."

So it indicates that there is still some more work to do. Now, the person that we have not heard from yet is Senator Cornyn himself. We've been speaking to him repeatedly through the course of the day. I've asked him a ton of questions about where he stands and where he stood before this meeting with Chuck Grassley and Tom Tillis is that he was still a no. He was still planning to vote no tomorrow because he says the Justice Department has not been responsive to the concerns that he laid out in the aftermath of Tom -- Todd Blanche's confirmation hearing and everything that he has said since.

And he wants more specificity, written language to ensure, in particular that that weaponization fund will not go forward, especially as a separate litigation is going on over this issue as well. So, Jake, how that's being resolved is still unclear. Whether it gets resolved and whether this vote actually will happen, meaning that at this moment, this nomination very much hanging in the balance with any one Republican -- any of those Republicans, either of those men, if they were to vote no tomorrow, Tillis or Cornyn, that would be enough to stall, if not completely kill this nomination.

TAPPER: So if the vote stalls tomorrow, if Cornyn says, I'm not going to vote yes today. So if you -- if you have the vote today, that's trouble. What happens? Is the nomination dead? Or they just do this full court press on Cornyn or Tillis or whatever?

RAJU: You know, it is still -- it would very -- the nomination would be really serious, serious jeopardy, Jake. There would be an opportunity to revive the nomination, perhaps at a later date, and there would be a possibility of the Senate majority there, John Thune, taking procedural steps to circumvent the Senate Judiciary Committee. But Thune is very skeptical about going that route. He has not wanted to do that in the past. He has wanted to respect the recommendation of the committee.

[17:20:26]

And if the committee is deadlocked, which would mean if one Republican did defect, it would be deadlocked. That means the nomination would have effectively been stalled and defeated in the committee. John Thune is likely to respect that vote in the committee unless something changes. That would mean that this could be stalled for the indefinite future.

Now, there could be a circumstance too, Jake, that John Cornyn ultimately gets his -- would get his concerns resolved at a later date, could change his mind and vote yes at a later date. But the chairman of the committee, Chuck Grassley, wants to avoid this altogether, which is why he is working with the White House behind the scenes to try to resolve John Cornyn's concerns. At the moment, unclear if they have. Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Manu Raju on Capitol Hill. Stay close. We're going to check back with you on this breaking story.

Also breaking in our Money Lead, the worst day for the Dow in more than a year. Sharp drops for the Nasdaq and the S&P as well. The divided decision from the Federal Reserve leading to these declines and what it all means about the health of the U.S. economy and your own bank account. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:25:50]

TAPPER: Breaking news in our Money Lead. Take a look. Big losses on Wall Street today. Just some of the reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady where they are.

The Dow plunging more than a thousand points today, its worst day since April of last year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell sharply.

Today the Fed's new chairman, Kevin Marsh, who Trump said was straight out of central casting, promised to tackle inflation, but he offered few details on how, instead asking the nation for patience.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEVIN WARSH, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2 percent goal. You've heard this before, but we will deliver price stability.

We understand that the five plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks or by a single month of modest price decreases.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Let's bring in CNN Senior Business Reporter Dave Goldman.

Dave, break down the Fed's decision here for us.

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: Yes, certainly the market is reacting in a very strong way. You see this sea of red. This is the worst day for the Dow in over a year. Look at tech stocks down 1.7 percent. This is a significant reaction.

Let me show you something that's even more significant. Check the bond market, right? This is what determines rates, not the Fed, not stocks, the bond market. We are now close to the all-time high for the Trump administration, either Trump administration. We also are at a 19-year high for the 30-year yield.

What follows the 30-year and the 10-year yield, your mortgage, right? So expect those mortgage rates to tick higher tomorrow and in the future.

I also think that this is important. This is supposed to follow the federal fund rate that is significantly higher. Jake, this is the market saying we're worried about inflation and we didn't hear much from the new Fed chair who is supposed to settle the markets down and explain what's going on. Without the explanation, this is the reaction you're seeing.

TAPPER: Dave, why didn't the Fed raise interest rates?

GOLDMAN: Right. So this is the key because we are now still for the fifth straight meeting at the same high level, but at the same level when we've seen inflation rise and rise. We were at 4.2 percent, 3.5 percent no matter what it was. These are all higher than that 2 percent target that the Fed has.

But as I mentioned, look at where the two year yield is. This is supposed to be the same as that. They're supposed to work in tandem. This is the market saying, wait a minute, we're concerned about inflation and this yield needs to be higher to combat that. And as the Fed chairman said, we're happy to let the market do the work for us.

The market is playing the ball now, not the referee, meaning it is focused on inflation and not on what the Fed is going to do. What Kevin Warsh is saying here is basically I can eat my cake and have it too. I can be Trump's Fed chair and either keep rates steady or start to lower them and let the market react to inflation setting that rate higher, Jake.

TAPPER: All right, Dave Goldman, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

[17:29:18]

Coming up next is CNN Special Report. Getting at the core of what's fueling so much harassment, intimidation and violent attacks on Christians in Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Our World Lead starts in the occupied West Bank, the strip of land that borders Israel, Jordan, and the Dead Sea, which has become an increasingly more violent hotbed for clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians. Today, global powers are taking notice.

Canada's foreign ministry called for the expansion of Israeli settlements to stop, and the United Nations issued a new report finding settler violence has reached a, "all-time high." CNN's Clarissa Ward follows a group of Palestinians leaving the West Bank in droves. They are Christians.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For 2,000 years, Christians have been in the Holy Land. That presence now under mounting pressure as attacks on Christians rise. In Jerusalem, spitting at clergy, vandalizing holy sites, harassment and intimidation are almost daily occurrences. While in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settler violence and economic pressure are pushing Palestinian Christians out.

[17:35:06]

April 2026, a nun is thrown to the pavement by an Israeli extremist just outside the site of the Last Supper. The Israeli government strongly condemns the attack, and the suspect is arrested.

FATHER ANTHONY GIAMBRONE, VICE DIRECTOR, EBAF: This is where two of the quarters meet, Christian and Jewish, and so it's always been a friction point.

WARD (voice-over): Father Anthony Jambroni teaches at the same school as the nun who was attacked. He has lived in Jerusalem for 10 years.

WARD: Does anyone have any sense of what the motivation was here? I've heard some speculation that maybe he was a disturbed individual or.

GIAMBRONE: He could be disturbed, but he's filled with an ideology as well that I think doesn't want to accept her presence here.

WARD: Help us understand that a little bit better.

GIAMBRONE: Yes, well, I mean, it's obviously a long history. It's very important to say that -- that's, you know, that's an extreme view. I think there's increasing concern that it's an extreme view that's getting mainstreamed. It's a fundamentalist understanding of the possession of the land. The land was given to the Jews, and that needs to mean all of it.

WARD (voice-over): According to the Religious Freedom Data Center, from April to June of this year, reports of incidents against Christians in Jerusalem rose by 70 percent compared to the three months before October 7th, though the spike may partly reflect more people coming forward to report.

The fallout has embarrassed the Israeli government internationally. In April, it appointed Arab-Israeli Christian diplomat George Deek as special envoy to the Christian world, the first such position in Israel's history.

GEORGE DEEK, ISRAEL SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE CHRISTIAN WORLD: Attacks on Christians, on Jews, on Muslims or anyone based on their faith or their ethnicity is immoral, illegal and unacceptable. We should, however, be able to distinguish between serious incidents that require serious action and the false narrative that this is somehow representative of the Israeli state, Israeli society or Christian life in Israel. The reality in Israel is that Israel remains the only place in the region where the numbers, the Christian community in Israel is actually growing.

WARD: There is a sense that these types of incidents and this type of bigotry and this ideology has been allowed to continue with relative impunity.

DEEK: I acknowledge the fact that there is a rise in extremism in Israel, just like we see a rise in extremism, I think, across the world. We can do more. We should do more. And it is my task to make sure that we will do more.

WARD (voice-over): But just 20 miles away, the government is enabling Israeli settler extremism.

WARD: So we're driving now to a town called Taybeh in the occupied West Bank. And it's been coming under attack from settlers for some years now, but those attacks have really intensified in recent months.

WARD (voice-over): Palestinians of all faiths are struggling, but Christian Palestinians are leaving faster than most.

ROLAND BASSIR, CHRISTIAN PALESTINIAN (through audio translator): There is no work, no money, my children want to buy something for 20 shekels and I don't have any to give them. For God's sake.

WARD (voice-over): It doesn't take long for us to come across Roland Bassir, his cement factory has come under attack this morning by settlers as it does most days.

BASSIR (through audio translator): Look here they are running after me.

WARD (voice-over): He shows us videos he has compiled over months of settler extremists chasing him out of his factory.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through audio translator): Can't you understand, this is our place.

WARD (through audio translator): Do you have any idea why they are doing this?

BASSIR (through audio translator): I don't know. They want to take over everything. Yesterday I told him I'm from Taybeh. He said, this settlement is mine. Taybeh is mine. If I have to opportunity to leave, I would leave and not stay in this town, because there is no future for me or my children.

WARD (voice-over): Down at the damaged factory, the Israeli police and army finally arrive, four and a half hours after Bassir says he first called them. But minutes later, without even getting out of their vehicles, they turn around and start to leave.

BASSIR: See you later. Bye bye.

WARD: So they came, they --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through audio translator): And you saw it. WARD: -- seem now to be leaving.

WARD (voice-over): As we drive out of Taybeh, we see a young settler grazing his sheep in the town's olive groves.

WARD: Hi. Hi, excuse me. My name's Clarissa Ward. I work for CNN. Can I ask you some questions? Do you speak any English?

[17:40:13]

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through audio translator): Hello, do you speak English?

WARD (voice-over): He ignores our attempts to speak with him in Hebrew and begins to film us.

WARD: This is a Palestinian town, Taybeh. It's a Christian Palestinian town. I'm just wondering if you can explain why you're here or what you're doing here. This is not your land.

So you can see he took a video of the whole thing, did not say a single word to us. And we're right here, right outside of Taybeh.

WARD (voice-over): Reverend Munther Isaac says that since October 7th, the situation has become untenable.

REV. MUNTHER ISAAC, EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN PASTOR: Christians are part of the Palestinian people. Whatever happened to all Palestinians happens to us. The issue with Christians is that because our numbers are small, we became a very vulnerable community. So every family that leaves, we feel its impact.

WARD: Do you feel that the church is doing enough to protect Christians here?

ISAAC: Churches around the world are saying many good things. What we need is action to put pressure on Israel to stop the settlement activities and to reach a settlement with the Palestinians.

WARD (voice-over): For now, that seems a distant prospect. Without decisive action, the erosion of Christian life in the Holy Land will continue. The question is whether there is political will to change it.

Clarissa Ward, CNN, Jerusalem.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TAPPER: And our thanks to Clarissa Ward and her team for that report.

All bets are off, or maybe all bets are on, as some states try to shut down election betting. Others call it voter suppression. When does betting teeter on insider trading? An expert panel on prediction markets will put their cards on the table next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [17:46:33]

TAPPER: And we're back with our Tech Lead. And this message, do not bet on your ballot. We mean that literally. Don't bet on your ballot. Wisconsin officials recently warned voters they cannot bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same race.

That law has technically been on the books since the 1800s. If they do, if voters do that, their ballots could be thrown out and the offender could actually be prosecuted. Other states are also on edge, given the rise of these wild prediction markets.

So let's talk about this with CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen, who just heard from election officials today. Also with us are Christy Goldsmith-Romero, a former commissioner with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, which regulates prediction markets. And Rob Schwartz, who served as the commission's chief legal advisor.

So, Marshall, that warning from Wisconsin's election commission definitely caught the attention of Kalshi. That's the biggest prediction market in the country. I think we have some sort of deal with them that we should probably disclose.

MARSHALL COHEN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: CNN has a partnership with Kalshi.

TAPPER: OK, just to disclose that. But they don't know anything about the segment we're doing. Break this down for us.

COHEN: This was pretty wild last week and it spread like wildfire among the exploding community of prediction market traders and people that are fascinated by this stuff. The warning came from those election officials who simply told their constituents, hey, you probably don't know about this law.

It's from the 1800s. But technically, on the books, it says that if you wager on an election on a specific race in Wisconsin, you are then disqualified, no longer qualified to vote on that race, vote in that election. It's not clear if that's really enforceable today or if it's even constitutional, but it is the law.

And they were notifying their constituents about it, which triggered a very aggressive reaction from Kalshi, which went on the attack. It claimed that the election officials were trying to suppress the vote. And it just was a big mess. But it caught a lot of attention among election officials across the country because this is the first election, the midterms with widespread use of these markets.

TAPPER: And Rob, just two years ago, before the 2024 election, you argued the government's case to prevent election betting, but you lost the case. A federal appeals court ruled that the CFTC overstepped its authority in its attempt to block prediction market betting from voters voting in the same elections. What were your concerns then and have they grown since then?

ROBERT A. SCHWARTZ, FORMER GENERAL COUNSEL, CFTC: Well, it was the commission's concern. I was their lawyer.

TAPPER: Right.

SCHWARTZ: But the way they articulated it was that, number one, they didn't view these contracts as real financial products. They viewed it as gambling on elections. So they called it gaming. And they didn't feel it had a place on futures exchanges. They felt that there was a potential threat to election integrity. So, for example, somebody could take a large bet or take a large position on a market, make it look like a candidate had a better chance to win than they really do. And that could have all kinds of effects, so on fundraising, media coverage, and so forth.

TAPPER: Yes.

SCHWARTZ: So that was the kind of thing that the CFTC was most. And they were also concerned about interfering with states' election laws, like Wisconsin, where they prohibit about half the states have laws on the books.

TAPPER: Christy, this all raises even heightened concerns about insider trading that already existed. And then we were discussing this a second ago, two weeks ago, we learned that the White House teleprompter operator was under federal investigation by the CFTC for allegedly betting on what Trump might say in speeches, which he clearly would have an insider track to. This past spring, Kalshi spended three political candidates from using the platform after an investigation showed that they allegedly bet on their own campaigns.

[17:50:19]

And then, of course, there's this remarkable case of the U.S. Special Forces soldier facing criminal charges for allegedly betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which happened with the help of Special Forces. This must be happening. If we know about those five cases, this must be happening much, much more than we even have any idea about.

CHRISTY GOLDSMITH ROMERO, FORMER CFTC COMMISSIONER: Yes, absolutely. I mean, this is why I voted to ban the election-related contracts, because I thought there's no way for the CFTC to be able to ensure the integrity of elections. We don't know what's happening. I mean, the insider trading just makes people think these markets are rigged, right?

And so people will say, well, on the elections, we look at these markets because they give us continuous real-time information. That's the wisdom of crowds. But only if they have integrity, right? Only if there's no insider trading. You've got these congressional candidates who were caught because of some new rule. Well, why is it a new rule that a candidate can't trade on their own election? And what about people beyond the candidate? And how is the CFTC and these prediction market exchanges supposed to know who's an insider? And ultimately, I think the CFTC is, I'm really worried that they don't have access to the information or the expertise to be able to safeguard the election integrity. TAPPER: And Rob, is it difficult to prove insider trading in elections?

SCHWARTZ: Well, it depends on the facts and circumstances, right? I think if you read the indictments in these cases that you mentioned, there are very, very damning facts that the government can prove it. The Special Forces soldier had access to classified information. He set up an account. It was a brand new account. He routed some of the proceeds through overseas. The exchange was overseas. He used cryptocurrency to kind of cover his tracks again, allegedly, if this can be proven.

TAPPER: Right.

SCHWARTZ: The behavior of the trader is going to matter a lot in any given case.

TAPPER: But is the idea, Christy, that maybe somebody would run for office and then tank it and bet against themselves?

ROMERO: Well, I think that could be one, right? That's one election integrity. Or it could be, let's think about we've got insider trading. You've also got potential manipulation of markets, right? You have a foreign actor, a domestic actor, who's trying to, you know, put out a lot of disinformation to ultimately change voters' views, influence the election.

TAPPER: Oh, so that the betting is the main thing and the election just becomes a consequence, a tragedy, collateral damage.

ROMERO: It could be one. I mean, and then you've got insiders and you think, OK, who else besides the candidate knows information and is in some duty of confidence and duty of trust to keep everything confidential but is actually trying to make money?

TAPPER: That's all we need is less confidence in elections. Marshall, there are probably people watching and wondering, how is betting on elections even legal? And that's actually pitting some states against the federal government here.

COHEN: There's a colossal showdown right now between states and the federal government, specifically the Trump administration. As you mentioned, the Biden administration did try to stop this. They lost in court, and now it is proliferating like crazy. It's quite popular. I just looked this up before we came on. On the Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets, there have been more than $31 million in trading volume over who will control the U.S. House.

The Trump administration, the CFTC, has been protecting this industry and trying to enshrine into federal regulations that election markets like these are good, are legal. States are trying to block election markets and also sports wagering, which is a much bigger business than elections.

TAPPER: Yes. COHEN: There are dozens of cases across the country. There was a ruling a few hours ago against the companies in Wisconsin. There was a ruling in favor of the companies earlier this week in Minnesota. Most of the experts I speak to, probably the experts at this table here, also would agree this is probably going to be decided by the Supreme Court.

TAPPER: All right. Thanks, one and all. Fascinating and troubling stuff. Really appreciate it. Thank you so much.

One note, as I noted earlier, CNN has a partnership with Kalshi, and we use its data to cover major events, but editorial employees are not allowed to use prediction markets.

[17:54:35]

OK. We're watching this hurry-up-and-wait situation on Capitol Hill right now. Todd Blanche needs the vote of every Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee to advance his nomination to become Attorney General, then go to the floor of the Senate. Right now, Blanche does not seem to have the support of all the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee. Will conversations that just took place change the minds of these two key Republican holdouts? CNN's Manu Raju is chasing the latest in the halls, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper. This hour, Todd Blanche's nomination to be attorney general is in peril at this hour as two key Senate Republicans are demanding guarantees from Trump's nominee. Blanche was just seen leaving the Capitol. So does that mean deal or no deal? Is there an admission that the votes are not there right now?

Plus, Dr. Anthony Fauci soon could be held in contempt of Congress after he invoked his Fifth Amendment right more than 100 times during a contentious hearing earlier today in the Senate. Fauci, who led the U.S. COVID response, refusing to answer questions about his handling of the pandemic. We're going to play you some of the most heated moments ahead.

[18:00:06]

Also, newly released court filings reveal the U.S. --