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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-WA), Is Interviewed About Trump Appears To Suggest U.S. Strikes On Iran Will Continue, Trump: I Wish The Anti-Weaponization Fund Weren't Dead; Rep. Lori Trahan (D-MA), Is Interviewed About Anthropic: A.I. Models Hacked Other Companies During Testing; Sheriff's Department Releases Guthrie Ransom Notes; Carville: Progressives Are "Not Popular, People Don't Like Them"; Analysis: Next House Will Lean Right Regardless Of Party Control; Judge Weighs Live Nation Request To Overturn Monopoly Verdict. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired July 31, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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But of course, don't go anywhere. "The Lead" anchored by Pamela Brown starts right now.

[17:00:32]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR & CHIEF INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: Every good lawyer knows, get it in writing. The Lead starts right now.

President Trump muddying the waters now saying he wishes his anti- weaponization fund was not dead. So does that mean it could be revived? I'm asking a Republican about two of his Senate colleagues pushing to get the so called dead fund in writing.

And breaking news. An Arizona sheriff's office releases the contents of ransom notes sent to the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie. The terrifying words as the case nears the six month mark.

Plus, crisis at Spain's border. The overwhelming surge, then reversal after tens of thousands of migrants from Morocco crossed into a small Spanish territory and then went back.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Pamela Brown in for Jake Tapper. And we start with our Politics Lead in a nasty showdown involving President Trump and two critical Republican holdouts over his acting attorney general nominee, Todd Blanche. Blanche has been grilled by senators over President Trump's so called anti-weaponization fund.

While Blanche repeatedly said the fund is, quote, "dead," Senator John Cornyn of Texas and Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina are begging him to put it in writing. Today, Tillis lamented, quote, "It's a shame his confirmation has hit a snag only because an incompetent personal adviser to the President refuses to amend the bogus settlement."

The jury's still out on who that incompetent adviser is. Here's President Trump for his part on the issue at his cabinet meeting today at Camp David.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's dead. But, you know, I wish it weren't. To be honest with you. Todd Blanche is a very, very good man and he shouldn't be in the middle of this. He should get approved because you will never get anybody like him.

And the man that lost, the man that I didn't endorse has become very angry. And that's OK. I mean, I understand that. I probably would do the same thing.

You want to know the truth? I think I'd do the same thing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So just repeating that first part about the fund, the president says out loud he wished it weren't dead. So you can perhaps see why Senators Cornyn and Tillis want it in writing from the man who wants to be Trump's attorney general that the fund will not make a comeback. Senator Cornyn also is concerned over Trump's tax immunity deal with the IRS, which the New York Times reports could spare Trump a $100 million penalty and insists Blanche place limits on that, too. Trump's Camp David Cabinet meeting turned what has been a secluded private retreat for past presidents into the setting for a very public spectacle.

The president also highlighted some major foreign policy sticking points, including his ambitious new deal to disarm Hamas. Significant hurdles remain around who takes action first, Hamas or Israel. Here's what Trump said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I do have an understanding with Israel. Israel is very happy about it. Israel helped us and they've been very good. They've been very good about it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Earlier, an Israeli official rejected key elements of the reported framework, stressing that complete disarmament of Hamas is a precondition for Israel to pull out of Gaza.

And then there's Trump's war in Iran. There were no reported strikes in Iran overnight, but there are very few signs of inactive -- any active negotiations to end this conflict. Trump laid out his frustrations with the Iranians.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: All they do is make me angry. You know, they just make me angry. I'm losing faith in them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Speaking of Iran, Trump said this about a cyber-attack on critical infrastructure in Minnesota.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: You know who's behind it? Minnesota, because they're grossly incompetent. I think the governor is behind it. I don't think there was an Iranian cyber-attack.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Federal and state officials are treating Iran as one of the key suspects behind the hack.

Joining us now is Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner from Washington. He's on the Judiciary and Foreign Affairs Committees.

Congressman, great to have you on the show. Thanks so much for your time. So President Trump, as you well know, campaigned on lowering prices and ending forever wars and foreign intervention. New CNN polling this week shows 70 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy and 72 percent disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Is he putting your party in a bad position ahead of the midterms?

[17:05:10]

REP. MICHAEL BAUMGARTNER (R-WA): I think President Trump is putting America on a pathway to very strong economic growth. Working with Republicans in the House and Senate, we passed the largest tax reduction in American history. We've done more to increase oil and gas production in America than any president in recent history. So I think we're in a very strong place. And President Trump has also showed that he will do what is needed to keep America safe.

And certainly the Iranians are trying to get a nuclear weapon. And President Trump's been very clear he's not going to make that happen. So I think the American people trust President Trump and they think Republicans are doing a good job and I think we're going to do very well in these upcoming elections.

BROWN: But what do you say then to those Americans who don't feel that way? Because several polls, not just a CNN poll, who show that sentiment among the everyday Americans. So you can say we have the policies and these are the goals. But what do you say to those who aren't feeling it, who are struggling to get by every day?

BAUMGARTNER: Well, you know, it is true that there was inflation left over from the Biden administration. We have done a lot in Congress to reduce some of the regulation and impediments to economic growth. But I think if you look at the stock market in America --

BROWN: This is Trump's economy. BAUMGARTNER: -- people feel bullish about the future of America. You can see the stock market at record gains. Now, what we want to do is transfer those gains to the rest of the American people. I think we have a paradigm out there to do that.

BROWN: Do you agree though, this is Trump's economy, right?

BAUMGARTNER: Well, it's the -- presidents always get -- take too much credit and too much blame for the economy. You know, the economy has multiple factors. But I think we can be very proud about what Republicans have done with President Trump to give a growth enhancing tax decrease, to reduce regulation, and again to unleash American energy. So I feel very strongly about the fact that we've put the right measures in place to grow the economy. And I think that will come through in this election.

I'm very bullish about Republicans keeping the majority in the House and the Senate and we're going to continue these policies for the next two years.

BROWN: President Trump is also pushing the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act despite it apparently having no path and digging in on his attorney general pick, as well as defending the controversial anti- weaponization fund saying he wish it -- wishes that it wasn't dead. Do you think that this is where his focus should be?

BAUMGARTNER: Well, it's extremely important that we restore trust in America's elections. It shouldn't be that difficult to make the same requirement to get on an airplane as the requirement to vote. You know, we've seen non-citizens voting in places like New Jersey and we need to restore that trust to make sure the American people have confidence. So, you know, we voted for the SAVE America Act, I think at least four times in the House. We're hopeful that they'll be able to put together the votes in the Senate.

But you know, there are some senators that have some hard feelings towards the President. Some senators are leaving and, you know, they still have to be able to find 50 votes over there and make it happen.

BROWN: You don't have to show your -- U.S. citizen to get on an airplane. But do you think that they should just put it in writing as this --

BAUMGARTNER: Nobody have to approve some citizenship. You have to show ID of citizenship, you know.

BROWN: You have to show ID. That's different from saying U.S. citizenship (ph).

BAUMGARTNER: It's making sure that only American citizen will vote in our election.

BROWN: And certainly in terms of the polling, the polling does show that the majority of Americans do want the idea. But the problem is that the votes aren't there as you've heard the Senate Majority leader say. It's not whether you agree with it or not. It's just he's saying the votes aren't there for the SAVE America Act. But when it comes to the anti-weaponization fund, do you think that it should just be put in writing as these senators are asking for it to be dead?

BAUMGARTNER: Well, you know, the role of the Senate is the advice and consent over an appointment like Todd Blanche. So I think what they should be looking at is Todd Blanche capable of doing the job as attorney general? I think he clearly is. Obviously there's two Senators that have some hard feelings towards the President. They've got a little bit of leverage and you know, I think they're enjoying their moment to try to make the President dance to their tune.

But at the end of the day, Todd Blanche is very qualified. He's doing a good job in his role, and I think he'll continue to do a good job in his role. And that's really what should be the focus on.

Now, you know, whether it's in writing or not, I think it's very clear that the President has made clear that the fund is dead. And I hope these folks in the Senate just move on and do what's right for the American people.

BROWN: But he also said he wish it wasn't dead. So I just want to move on to another question before we let you go. You just got back from a trip to Pakistan where mediators are working hard to revive U.S.- Iranian negotiations. But CNN is learning officials now fear Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards are firmly in control of the decision making. Meaning these Iranian politicians that the U.S. is talking to are nothing more than figureheads.

It sounds like a standstill. I mean, where do you go from here?

BAUMGARTNER: Well, you know, about 80 percent of the American -- of the Iranian people are compatible with modernity. The problem is the 20 percent that are Shia extremists, Jihadists believe in a messianic view. And if those folks are allowed to have control of the Straits of Hormuz, if they're allowed to develop a nuclear weapon, it's going to be extremely dangerous for the entire world.

[17:10:07]

You know, the Iranian economy is in extremely bad shape. And the longer we keep the blockade on of Iranian oil, the tougher it gets for the -- for their leaders. And so I think time is on our side. Obviously, if you're cynical about the American political cycle, you think time is on the Iranian side. But really, America is in a much stronger position than Iran. And I think with the fortitude and resolve of President Trump and the American people will end up in a good place on this.

BROWN: So you believe this is a winnable war?

BAUMGARTNER: I believe that we will make sure that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. And I believe that with the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, we have a lot of leverage on Iran. And it's very clear again, returning from my recent trip to Pakistan that the Iran economy is in terrible shape. And, you know, we need to make sure that those folks in the IRCG understand that they're not going to win this war and America resolve is going to be strong.

BROWN: All right, Republican congressman from Washington, Michael Baumgartner. Thank you so much. Have a nice weekend.

BAUMGARTNER: Thank you so much.

BROWN: And just ahead, the fight for 2026. Some states even change their congressional maps to influence the outcome. Ninety-five days out from the November election, a new report reveals which party may have the upper hand.

But first, when AI goes rogue, how anthropic powerful technology hacked another company undetected. My next guest says time for some rules on artificial intelligence.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:15:25]

BROWN: In our Tech Lead, AI gone rogue. The artificial intelligence company Anthropic says some of its models accessed the open Internet without permission and then hacked systems of three unnamed companies. This was during a cybersecurity test. Anthropic says models exploited weak passwords and found points that did not require logins.

Anthropic discovered this activity only after an internal review prompted by another AI company, OpenAI, reported its models did something similar nine days ago. So is this the kind of activity many AI critics have been afraid of? Let's pose that question to Democratic Congresswoman Lori Trahan of Massachusetts.

Congresswoman, thank you for coming on. So, you have expertise in this area. You are an executive at a tech company for years, so you know the industry well. In this -- in this response to this news, you posted, quote, "We can't run AI safety on the honor system. When Congress returns, we must hold hearings and move the FRONTIER Act."

So you and a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced the FRONTIER Act last week. If legislation aimed at strengthening oversight of advanced AI, how would that bill prevent incidents like this from happening?

REP. LORI TRAHAN (D-MA): Yes, well, look, I've been working with my Republican colleague Jay Obernolte and others for over a month, and basically, the FRONTIER Act does three things that do not exist today. One, mandatory reporting. We need to understand the capability of these models. And when there is a serious incident, there needs to be a requirement that it's reported to the government.

Second, we need independent verification. We need to have independent auditors who are verifying what these companies are doing, whether their testing models are secure. And then finally, we need an emergency backstop. If a model is genuinely too dangerous, we need to have a durable, sound legal process for the government to intervene. None of those things exist today.

But I do think that that is foundational to how we put a governance model in place federally.

BROWN: And when you say if a model is dangerous, what do you mean? What does that look like to you?

TRAHAN: Yes, it could take many forms. You know, it's -- you know, we have all sorts of -- types of catastrophic risk. We have, you know, bioweapons. We have cybersecurity issues. Anything that affects our national security.

I mean, look, for the second time this month, an AI model broke out of its containment. It got out onto the open Internet, and it broke into to real companies during, you know, a safety test where it should have been contained. Last week, it was OpenAI, this week, Anthropic. And so I think what should really concern us is that we only know about this because the companies volunteered to tell us, that has to change. And if that doesn't get Congress off the sidelines, I don't know what will.

BROWN: On Tuesday, leading AI companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, actually urged the U.S. government to help slow AI development. They warned that these companies could be close to automating AI research, which could lead to the technology spiraling out of control. Sort of the scenario you just described there. I mean, it seems even these AI companies are flogging that this could be a huge problem. Why is Congress moving so slowly on regulating AI?

TRAHAN: Well, I do think that there's been a lot of momentum, first because of these breaches that have gone public, but also because of this letter. I mean, think of who these people actually are. They're the ones -- they're the engineers. They're the scientists who are actually building these models, basically telling Congress to act.

So this is -- these aren't the usual outside critics. These aren't, you know, the safety community. This is the folks who are, you know, sounding the alarm from the inside. And I think we have to take that seriously.

Look, I think I've seen a lot of my colleagues on both sides of the aisle call for oversight hearings, and a lot of bipartisan bills have been introduced in the -- in the last couple of weeks. So I think there's a real push for Congress to keep pace with this rapidly accelerating technology. And my hope is that when Congress returns that we get to work both on legislative action and on oversight hearings.

BROWN: All right, Congresswoman Lori Trahan in Massachusetts, thank you so much.

TRAHAN: Thank you.

[17:19:54]

BROWN: Well, the breaking news, the ransom notes sent to the family of Nancy Guthrie just released. Do they match the messages sent to TMZ in the early days of Guthrie's disappearance? TMZ's Harvey Levin will join me next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In our Law and Justice Lead, today, the Pima County Sheriff's Department in Arizona released two of the alleged notes in the Nancy Guthrie case. The notes were submitted through the website of an Arizona T.V. station. The first one, sent the day after Guthrie's disappearance, reads in part, quote, "We have your mother, Nancy. She is safe but scared. She will be held for ransom and once payment is received, she will be released unharmed.

If the payment is not received by the last deadline, she will be killed. Your mother is aware of this and her life is in your hands. Do not play games. Law enforcement will not be able to help you."

[17:25:09]

The second note came four days later and said, quote, "Guthrie family, we did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt her. That was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was heart related.

She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly sorry."

Here to discuss is TMZ's Harvey Levin.

Harvey, thank you for coming on. I mean, just reading that your heart goes out to the Guthrie family. This must just be so agonizing for them. I'm wondering, how do these notes compare to the notes sent to TMZ?

HARVEY LEVIN, FOUNDER & EXECUTIVE PRODUCER, TMZ: Well, we received the first one, and that one added that if the initial ransom was 4 million, then it went to 6 million. And then as you read, if they didn't meet that deadline, she'd be killed. It seems like she died two or three days maximum after she was taken. And, you know, we talked about this at the beginning, and this is kind of what we know the FBI was thinking as well.

This was always just a money grab and that whoever did this, and you know, we believe there are reasons to believe that the person lived in the Tucson area, that they knew that Nancy's mother -- Nancy's daughter was Savannah, that Savannah presumably had a lot of money and they could get some quick cash by taking her and then returning her. And it did not go that way. And you really see the remorse and the shock almost in that second note that was sent four days later.

BROWN: So did your note vary at all from what I just read?

LEVIN: No, no. It's -- we received -- there are -- two Phoenix stations received that note, and it's the same note that we received.

BROWN: And do you have any indication of how valid or authentic they are? LEVIN: Yes, I mean, look, we've been talking to the FBI for months now, and they spent a lot of time with my IT team, a lot of time trying to find the person who wrote this e-mail, and to no avail. But they believed, we were told that this -- these two notes are real. They're both connected. It's from the same -- whoever -- it's the same address. So they believe that it's connected, but they have not been able to find either the kidnappers.

And I had to talk with somebody at the FBI earlier this week that they have no leads. This is a cold case. They have no leads on where the kidnapper is, and they have no leads on where now Nancy Guthrie's body is.

BROWN: And just to follow up, you said earlier, you said -- you thought, and the FBI as well, thought the kidnapper, kidnappers were in the Tucson area. Can you expand on that a little bit? Why did you think that?

LEVIN: Sure. The first ransom note, which was sent just a day after the kidnapping, was sent to two local Tucson television stations. And then the next day sent to us. And I think it was sent -- I'm guessing now that it was sent to us because the Tucson stations were silent about it. And why would they pick Tucson?

And then there was a reference to returning her within 12 hours after receiving payment. And when you look at that 12 hours, it's about a 600 mile radius. And it all seems to concentrate, you know, sending it to the Tucson stations, as opposed to NBC network where Savannah worked. There seems to be some connection to that area.

BROWN: And you said the FBI, you just talked to them, and basically the case is cold right now. I mean, you saw that Savannah Guthrie's new video, it was posted earlier this week. Did anything stand out to you?

LEVIN: Yes, when she said, we have done our part, that really stood out to me. And I asked the FBI about that because we have the bitcoin address, as do the two T.V. stations in Tucson, and we checked the bitcoin address, and they have not deposited any money. So when they say, we have done our part, it was confusing. What we were told from the FBI was, and they said they were working with the Guthrie family with this, they knew this -- her social media post was coming, that it was about the 1 million reward, that they've issued a reward she kind of pivoted and was really talking about the reward, that anybody who has information. You know, we've done our part to come forward and we will reward you. Please tell us where our mother is. And that's what they tell us she meant by we've done our part.

[17:30:29]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN HOST: But what has it been like for you to be in the middle of this? It's just so awful.

LEVIN: It's really awful. But honestly, to me, what I can't get over is, you know, Savannah Guthrie has to go to work every day.

BROWN: Yes.

LEVIN: And she has to put on that, you know, a smile, you know, when she's talking about entertaining things. And, you know, you feel -- it's palpable when you watch her. And she says this never goes away. And there have been times on "The Today Show" where she's broken down and couldn't finish a segment.

So, you know, this is kind of just an unending nightmare. And, you know, when I talked to somebody from the FBI this week, and it was stark. I mean, just we have no leads. We don't have any idea who these kidnappers are. We have no idea where is.

BROWN: Yes, I mean, and just losing your mom is just awful in and of itself. And to have this where they have no idea where she is. I don't know how Savannah and her family are moving forward. And she's just a pillar of strength and courage and our hearts go out to their family. Harvey, thanks for coming on.

The tip lines are still very much open in this case. If you have information you think you could help -- that could help call the Pima County Sheriff's Department at 520-351-4900 or the FBI at 1-800-CALL- FBI. You can also reach the Bureau online at tips.fbi.gov.

And just ahead, the rise of the progressive left. Could it hurt Democrats in the November midterms? A look at the message coming from some of the most controversial and influential voices across the party, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:36:34]

BROWN: And we are back with the Politics Lead, the growing power of Democratic progressives in the battles for the party's future will take center stage in next week's Michigan Senate primary, a continuing issue throughout the campaign cycle.

For this Sunday's The Whole Story with Anderson Cooper, CNN senior correspondent Donie O'Sullivan travels the country to speak with activists, candidates and controversial influential online voices from across the Democratic spectrum.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right, let's take in Michigan. El-Sayed is highly confident, but he's way left. I see challenges from the "progressive left." And these people are too hot headed to know that they're not popular. People don't like them. And but if you get a skewed turnout in a primary, you might end up losing a race that you should have never lost in the first place.

DONIE O'SULLIVAN, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: When you say progressive left, you sort of -- there's a tone of contempt there.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, yes. So you were very wise. I hope the camera was able to pick up the contempt. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: CNN's Donie O'Sullivan joins us now. So, Donie, I can't wait to watch this. You talk to so many on the left. Has the divide among Democrats ever been this deep?

O'SULLIVAN: Yes, look, I mean, some are calling this the sort of Democratic Party's Tea Party moment. You know, you remember what the Republicans went through in the last decade, just in terms of how there is this insurgent group within the party. Some people like Carville say, you know, Democratic Socialists should not even be part of the party, that they're not truly in the Democratic Party.

But the sort of relentless and really uncompromising campaign to turn -- to pull the Democratic Party to the left to sort of make the Democratic Party in the image of the Democratic Socialists of America Party. We spoke to a lot of people, you know, both folks who argue that the party should stay firmly to the center, the center left, and to others who say it should go very far left. I think one thing you'll see in this hour is just the really important role that we've seen of new media pop up over the past few years.

You know, there's been a pretty established MAGA media space that we saw Trump use effectively through podcasts and the Steve Bannon show and all that sort of stuff over the past few years. We've really now seen that bubble up on the left, where you have all these different podcasts, all these different YouTube shows, and of course, Twitch streamers who can really push messages out there that otherwise, you know, maybe in the past you might not have heard as much.

So really, you know, this is, I guess, something that Bernie Sanders has been trying to do for a very, very long time. But because of all of this movement and the new platforms, it's really been mainstreamed within the Democratic Party.

BROWN: You heard James Carville just talk about the fact that primaries are one thing, but then the general election in November, that's another thing. What else did you hear from voices on the left about that?

O'SULLIVAN: Yes, and I think that's the absolute crucial thing, right? And that, of course, is what we will see play out in Michigan on Tuesday. Will the centrist Stevens candidate win or will it be El- Sayed? And then what will happen in November? I mean, will Michigan voters in a purple state go for that candidate? People who are, you know, the far left, the folks, the Democratic socialists and far left folks will say, yes, this is what we need.

[17:40:04]

We need to present regular voters with radical differences. Or, you know, the far left, the folks, the Democratic socialists and far left folks will say, yes, this is what we need. We need to present regular voters with radical differences, something that is radically different. I think one thing that is very important to point out, Pam, and you saw there that we spoke to Hassan Piker, who is a controversial Twitch streamer, Democratic socialist activist who's sort of become a lightning rod within the party. Back in 2024, he did not endorse Kamala Harris to be the president. He didn't tell his followers to vote for her.

And I think that's a big concern with the party going both into the midterms, but also into the 2028 election, is will they all come together at the end to get behind their candidates?

BROWN: We shall see. Donie O'Sullivan, thank you so much. And be sure to watch Donie's full report on the whole story with Anderson Cooper this Sunday night at 8:00 here on CNN and then Monday on the CNN app.

But first, who's winning the fight for 2026? A new report shows one party seems to have the upper hand.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:45:29]

BROWN: In the Politics Lead, this November, voters in 10 states will finally see the outcome of partisan battles over redrawing congressional maps. It's a fight that appears to be leaning in favor of Republicans. In an update this week, "The Cook Political Report" now says more seats in the 2027 House will skew right, regardless of which party ends up in control. Joining us now is The Cook's David Wasserman, along with Ashley Etienne, former communications director for Vice President Harris and Republican strategist Melik Abdul. Great to see all of you.

Dave, I want to kick this off with you because I want to dig into this report, this update this week to "Cook's" partisan voter index. It is full of so many interesting findings. For bigger context here, you found that 2026 will be the lowest year on record for hyper competitive swing seats, with just 43, as well as more districts than ever identifying with the same party as their state overall. Tell us more about the way the redistricting that we've seen had in terms of the impact on this.

DAVE WASSERMAN, SENIOR EDITOR & ELECTIONS ANALYST, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Well, when the White House launched this gambit last summer, instructing every red state to eliminate as many Democratic seats as possible, they initially thought they could flip maybe a dozen Democratic seats and safeguard their House majority. Then it looked like Democrats might be able to fight to a wash because they retaliated in California. It looked like they were going to gerrymander Virginia. That got struck down.

So we ended up with kind of a middle scenario where Republicans are likely to net between five and six seats from gerrymandering alone. The Supreme Court decision gutting the enforceability of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act played a role in that. And that means that instead of Democrats needing just three seats on a net basis to flip the House, they probably need more like eight or nine. We still consider them the favorites to get there.

But they're playing on a lopsided field that's tilted towards Republicans. The median seat in the country, if you rank order all 435 districts from the reddest to the bluest, is 2.5 points redder than the nation as a whole. Before this, it was only a half a point.

BROWN: So give us a few examples of races and states you're keeping an eye on this November that will be decisive in the overall party lean of the House.

WASSERMAN: We're watching four states in particular that didn't gerrymander their boundaries for this cycle, and those are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Iowa. Those are clusters of toss-up races. And you mentioned that the number of hypercompetitive districts is at an all-time low. We're looking at just 18 races out of 435 that we consider to be pure toss-ups, which means that only about 4 percent of the country is truly going to decide who's in the House majority.

I'll give you an example of a race that we're watching on Tuesday in the primary, Michigan's district, which is Lansing, a district that was formerly held by Senator Elissa Slotkin. There are two more mainstream Democrats with national security backgrounds running against each other, which has created an opening for a progressive Berniecrat to win the primary. If that happens, then Republican Tom Barrett might have a better chance at winning reelection.

And Republicans are hoping to tie Democrats everywhere to DSA and this movement, this lurch to the left towards what they would call radical socialism, and leverage their financial firepower to try and claw as many seats as possible to maintain their House majority. We still think that's unlikely, but Democrats aren't the prohibitive favorites they were at the outset of the year.

BROWN: Yes, and we're talking about Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive, more progressive candidate, and Haley Stevens. I'm wondering, Ashley, as you hear Dave lay that out, what do you want to happen in this Michigan primary coming up?

ASHLEY ETIENNE, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, VP HARRIS: Well, I mean, it's going to be interesting. I think it's going to be a test for an indication of the sort of, to some degree, the future of the Democratic Party and some of its greatest vulnerabilities. You've got, you know, a DSA candidate running against what they would now call sort of an establishment Democrat who's proven herself strong in the House. And so I think it's going to be interesting to see how this thing breaks.

It's like many of the states that, you know, are up for grabs in the Senate in terms of these primary races, they're going to come down to black voters. So it's going to be, in my opinion, who can appeal greatest to black voters. And black voters tend to be more moderate than they are, you know, far left. I think that's an assumption a lot of people make about black voters. So it's going to be interesting to see where this thing lands. But it's going to be a test of the future of the Democratic Party.

[17:50:07]

It's going to be a test on this issue of Israel. And it's going to be also a test on whether or not DSA candidates are going to be positioned to win some of these general election races.

BROWN: I can guess who you want to win next week based on what Dave just laid out.

MELIK ABDUL, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Absolutely, of course. And I don't think that this race in particular in Michigan, I don't think I'll disagree with Ashley on this one. I don't think that this is a barometer for whether or not the Democratic Party is moving towards democratic socialism, because we've seen a number of Democratic Socialist candidate win over and over again, even in places where there is a sizable number of black people. I would say Washington, D.C., our mayor, incoming mayor ran on a Democratic Socialist platform. She is a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist.

And she basically mollywhacked, you know, the guy that she was running against. So, yes, there are black voters who like certain things when it comes to moderate candidates. But the Democratic Socialist platform, the things that black, white, Asian, it doesn't matter. Democratic Party is going back to the days of AOC. And I've said this before, the squad is now taking back over. They're taking the reins on the party.

ETIENNE: Melik raises a really good issue, because what we're seeing play out, not just on the Democratic side, but also on the Republican side, which is sort of this rejection of incumbency. You know, there's a recent CNN poll that showed more than 60 percent of the Democratic Party thinks that it needs, Democratic voters think that the party needs a complete overhaul. You know, and then more than 70 percent of voters think that, you know, the majority of voters think that the majority of those who are serving in Congress need to be gone.

So there's this whole sentiment where everybody's trying to throw through, throw all the guys out right now. Everybody's dissatisfied with the way that this country is headed and with all the elected officials on both sides of the aisle that are currently serving.

BROWN: Dave, final words to you on just what this all means.

WASSERMAN: We're going to see upheaval in November. And it's not just Democrats probably taking back the House, but both sides are frustrated with their party's leadership. We're seeing a mass exodus in the House, more than 60 open seats. We're likely to see a huge surge in the number of progressive members of the Democratic caucus. And even if Democrats wind up with somewhere around 225 House seats, Hakeem Jeffries will only be speaker by the margin of those DSA candidates who have won primaries.

BROWN: All right. Thank you all so much. Great conversation.

We have some breaking news just coming in about the criminal case against the Olympian accused of damaging the Reflecting Pool. We're going to have more on that coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:56:57] BROWN: In the Law and Justice Lead, Live Nation and Ticketmaster want a judge to reverse a verdict that found the two operate as a monopoly and overcharged fans. A judge heard that argument today, reviewing a verdict from back in April. A coalition of more than 30 states and the Justice Department initially brought on this case. And then, in a surprise move just days into the trial, the DOJ and some of those states settled with Live Nation and Ticketmaster. But 26 states kept their case and they won. CNN's Kara Scannell listened in on today's argument. So, Kara, the judge had a lot of questions about evidence in that April trial. Is that right?

KARA SCANNELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: He did, Pamela. He peppered lawyers for both the state coalition and for Live Nation, saying he wanted them to cite specific testimony and specific exhibits in response to his questions. And this hearing went over three hours.

It was very technical at times, and some of it had to do with specific elements of the law, of antitrust law. But there was one topic that was a little bit more user-friendly, where one of the questions was, what evidence do you have that an artist did not want to use Live Nation's promotion service? Because this is antitrust, the idea that they were tying all of these issues together in an anti-competitive way.

And a state lawyer said that there was testimony that some artists would have preferred to use other promoters and that that was enough to satisfy the claim. And Live Nation's lawyer said, well, they could have called just one artist to get on the stand to say that they wanted to use another promoter, and Live Nation said, no, they said they didn't do it because it didn't exist. So that gives you a flavor for what was going on. But the judge did not rule today.

He's asking both sides to give their final arguments by Tuesday, and then a decision will likely follow that. And up in the air is whether he has approving this case. As the jury found it, he could throw out some claims. He could also order a new trial.

BROWN: So if the judge reverses the jury's verdict, and again, we don't know what's going to happen, but if that does happen, what would happen to the settlement?

SCANNELL: So there are two legally distinct things. If the judge does throw out the state case or order a new trial, it doesn't affect the Justice Department settlement that was reached with the states. And in that settlement, they did agree to certain concessions. Live Nation said it would end certain exclusivity deals with some of the amphitheaters that it owns. And it said in certain instances it would also allow competitors like SeatGeek to be involved in some of the ticketing.

That, though, is still under review. It requires the same judge to sign off on it. And right now there's this public comment period. So the judge will take into consideration what the public says and possibly even what the states have to say before he rules on that, Pam.

BROWN: All right. Kara Scannell bringing us the latest. Thanks so much, Kara.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

BROWN: And welcome to The Lead. I'm Pamela Brown in for Jake Tapper. And we are following breaking news tonight. Moments ago, the Justice Department moved to drop the criminal charges against the former Olympian accused of vandalizing the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall. Prosecutors admitted the $14 million installation was rushed and flawed.

[18:00:02]

Joining us now with CNN's Katelyn Polantz and CNN's senior legal analyst Elie Honig. Katelyn, let's start with you.