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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Search And Rescue Continue In Grand Canyon; CNN Updates On Flash Flood Disaster In Nepal; Kalshi Bans George Santos For Life; Trump On New U.S. Strikes On Iran; Trump: U.S. Action Is "Limited" But Could Still "Smack Them"; Paxton Says He Was "Following Texas Law" When He Claimed Three Primary Residences; Day Three Of Jury Deliberations Wrap Up In Clancy Murder Trial. Aired 5-6p ET

Aired August 31, 2026 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KASIE HUNT, CNN HOST: You can also catch up by listening to "The Arena" podcast. Follow us on X and Instagram. We're @thearenacnn. But don't go anywhere. "The Lead" anchored by Phil Mattingly starts right now.

UNKNOWN (voice-over): This is "CNN Breaking News."

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN HOST: Welcome to "The Lead." I'm Phil Mattingly, in for Jake Tapper. We start with breaking news in our "National Lead." Right now, search and rescue crews are combing the Grand Canyon for up to 15 missing hikers after flash flooding over the weekend quickly ripped through the canyon and left at least two people dead. That includes a 46-year-old man and a second unidentified victim.

This ongoing search, looking for a needle in a haystack at this point, included rugged terrain, cliffs, canyon depths averaging 4,000 to 6,000 feet deep, plus debris left by the floods, and more rain could complicate the search today. The National Weather Service says multiple flash floods are likely. As of yesterday, at least 62 people had been evacuated, according to the Grand Canyon National Park.

CNN's Ed Lavandera has been at the scene of this deadly flash flooding and has a closer look at how it all unfolded.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Rescue teams are still searching the Grand Canyon for roughly 15 missing hikers after floodwaters ravaged the usually dry landscape over the weekend. Raging waters and debris barreled down through popular hiking and camping areas of the Grand Canyon after the rain started.

JEFFREY YATES, EVACUATED FROM GRAND CANYON AFTER FLASH FLOOD: For certain, the most terrifying experience of my life so far.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Jeffrey Yates was checking off one of the items on his bucket list as he and a friend made their way down the Grand Canyon Saturday.

YATES: When we started we had some rain and thunder and lightning and cloudy skies, most of our hike down, but it would just rain for a little while, and then it would, you know, clear off for a little bit and kind of just off and on all day. So, we didn't think we were going to be in too much danger.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Their dream trip was quickly disrupted by the floods.

YATES: Then more rain started to come in and just an insane amount of wind and hail. We started to hear a sound that we knew wasn't really thunder, just a roar. I mean, it's kind of hard to describe, but it's something that you were -- you knew you were in the canyon, so you immediately knew that that is a water rushing by.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Jeffrey and a group of more than a dozen other hikers were evacuated out by helicopter on Sunday. Hiker Vika DeBoer (ph) says she has hiked the Grand Canyon many times, but never experienced rain and wind like she did on Saturday. She hunkered down in her tent, holding it with her foot so it wouldn't blow away.

VIKA DEBOER, HIKER (ph): This is the first time I've experienced anything like this. There are definitely lessons I've learned. Like if you see rain all around you when you're in a canyon, you need to be very careful and make very smart decisions.

UNKNOWN: Oh, hail and all, bro.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): Others made it over a bridge that washed away just minutes after they crossed.

UNKNOWN: The only thing that's left are the two stone pylons on either side of the creek.

LAVANDERA (voice-over): There's still a flood watch in effect with more rain and storms predicted for today, which could complicate search and rescue operations.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LAVANDERA (on camera): And Phil, we are standing at the beginning of the Bright Angel Trailhead. If you follow this path down, you wind down some 3,000 feet in elevation, you start getting into the area that has been so severely impacted by these floodwaters.

And the notices are out in these areas. This is essentially saying that this trail is closed. And it tells the story. The extreme weather conditions, the flooding, talks about how the trail is impassable, bridges on the trail are non-existent, and there's no water down there. One of the water pipelines was destroyed in this massive flooding event as well.

So, a great deal of work that still needs to be done as we await from our park officials here in the Grand Canyon to see how search and rescue operations have been going today. It has been hampered by the weather. We have had another wave of rain that came through. We're kind of in a low, but more rain is expected here later on this afternoon as well. Phil? MATTINGLY: Ed Lavandera on the scene of the Grand Canyon floods, our thanks to you and your team for the great reporting.

Let's discuss now with Gabriel Bergemann, who was with his family at Phantom Ranch when the flooding began. They were among some 60 people told to evacuate across a footbridge as the water rose. Gabe, we're showing some of your video now. Ed had some of it in his piece first and foremost. Just glad you and everyone traveling with you are OK. Can you tell us what happened when you first realized something was wrong here?

GABRIEL BERGEMANN, EVACUATED DURING GRAND CANYON FLOODING: Yes. So, we were just sitting in our cabin, you know, at Phantom Ranch at the bottom of the canyon when the park ranger came into our cabin and told us that we had to evacuate immediately.

[17:05:05]

There was a threat of a flash flood, a flash flood warning, and so we gathered all our stuff super quickly, and we just got out of our cabin and made our way to the evacuation area.

MATTINGLY: Now, the footbridge you used, as I understand it, was destroyed by floods about 10 minutes after you crossed it. Have you thought about what would have happened had the park ranger not gotten everybody to evacuate when he did?

BERGEMANN: Yes. I mean, that's the scary part, you know, because it was just the timing was so -- it was just such a -- it could have gone either way, you know. We just got lucky that we were alerted to the floods when we did because if we were on that bridge when the water came through, I'm sure there would have been like plenty, like a lot of people would not have made it out of there.

MATTINGLY: Even after you crossed that footbridge, got to higher grounds, it still took a while for the helicopter to get your group out of the canyon. At what point did you kind of exhale and think like, OK, we're safe here?

BERGEMANN: Yes. So, once we got to the other side of the Colorado River crossing the big bridge, once we got there, I knew I was pretty much safe. The water wasn't going to rise that much from the Colorado River. I mean, by then, you could just see all the debris that had -- the devastation that had taken effect on the camp and all the things that had floated into the river.

MATTINGLY: Is there a moment where like this all, I imagine, was happening so fast that it's tough to kind of get your head around it in the moment? When was the moment where you were kind of like, oh, wow, this could have gone bad and it has gone bad for others?

BERGEMANN: I would say, I mean, when I crossed the footbridge over the creek and I was able to see what the water looked like for the first time really, that's when I realized the danger of the situation and how seriously this could have gone. And from that point on, I was super serious. I was with my family, so we just made sure to get to the safety area as quickly as possible.

And then hearing about, you know, the people that are still missing, you know, I'm just super, super grateful to have been alerted when I did and been able to get to the safe area in a quick manner.

MATTINGLY: Had you guys camped in this area before? This is kind of like a once-in-a-lifetime bucket list opportunity for a lot of people.

BERGEMANN: Yes. No, it was my first time at the Grand Canyon also. It was like me and my brother had never been there before. It was our first time. We just -- we were going to stay the night Saturday and then hike up Sunday. But, obviously, the flooding made it so that we had to get evacuated Saturday.

MATTINGLY: What have the conversations been like with your family, with your brother in the wake of this?

BERGEMANN: I mean, just looking back on it, you know, in hindsight, thinking back on all the -- how we were fortunate even to like -- to be able to get our stuff because a lot of the people we were with weren't able to get any of their stuff. They lost all their belongings in the flood. So, just thinking back on like, you know, how it could have gone so differently. But yes, I'm so grateful that we were able to just get out of there safely and luckily, we did.

MATTINGLY: Yes. We are grateful as well for you and your family. Gabriel Bergemann, really appreciate your time. Thank you.

BERGEMANN: Thank you.

MATTINGLY: We're also following the flood disaster in Nepal. Next, the urgent race to save workers trapped in a hydropower tunnel who could still be alive. Plus, President Trump, moments ago, what he said about new U.S. strikes on Iran, the first in more than a month.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:10:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In the "World Lead," the search continues for more than 4,000 people still missing after a devastating flood swept through the border of Nepal and China six days ago. The death toll now stands at more than 950. Today, the Nepali Army rescued a hundred and nine people via helicopter.

Regional response efforts also expanding. Aid groups say survivors are in urgent need of water, food and shelter, but delivering that help is a challenge with roads and bridges destroyed or blocked by mud and debris. Specialized crews are racing to find some 900 missing workers in a river's hydropower tunnel, hearing some could be trapped inside alive.

All over Nepal, all over the world, loved ones of the missing are desperate for answers. CNN's Hanako Montgomery is on the ground in Nepal. Hanako, it appears to still be a very harrowing scene at this point.

HANAKO MONTGOMERY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Phil. We're in an area of Nepal right now called Bharatpur and, I mean, grim is really the only way to describe what we've been seeing here. We traveled pretty much for the entire day from Trishuli, an area higher up in the Himalayas, downstream to Nepal's valleys where hundreds of bodies, authorities have told us, have washed ashore.

And right now, they're busy trying to retrieve those bodies. They're also trying to identify those remains. And at a center, in the city center, they've sort of set up an area where families of loved ones can come. They can look at some of the photos that the authorities have taken of bloodied remains, trying to identify which one is their family members, and then, of course, try to obtain those remains.

But authorities have told us that it's very difficult at this time for many people in Nepal who have been affected by the floods to come and retrieve those bodies. And a lot of them actually remain unaccounted for. A lot of them actually also remain unidentified.

[17:15:01]

So, right now, they are digging a mass grave site where they will be storing those bodies for the time being. At the center, we spoke to one man whose son is a hydropower worker, and he is currently missing. He went down to the center on Monday trying to look for him and see if he has any news. This is what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UJWAL GHIMIRE, SEARCHING FOR MISSING SON (through translator): We could not find the dead body. My son's face did not match here. It is not here. He is not here. Tomorrow, we are also going to Nawalparasi and Gangtok (ph). His mother, (INAUDIBLE) mother, she does not sleep at all throughout the night. His wife is trying to commit suicide. She says she wants to die.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MONTGOMERY: And Phil, we visited the mass grave site yesterday where we saw a lot of diggers still trying to dig up the earth. And just being there, I mean, there was very much a heavy smell of the fresh dirt and also of decaying bodies. And we saw also stretchers laid there, clearly used to bring in those bodies.

The authorities have told us that on Tuesday, they will continue to look for any remains that they might have found in the rivers. We actually asked the police chief there how many more he believes might be still in the river, and he said he doesn't know because, again, this is still a natural disaster that is playing out in front of us, the effects of which we haven't fully grasped the scale of. But, you know, right now, we're seeing authorities comb through those rivers. We're also seeing a lot of rescues, of course, happen higher up in the Himalayas near those hydropower tunnels. But, again, here on the ground, Phil, there is very much a heavy sense that what remains along the road here in terms of recovery will be very, very grim. Phil?

MATTINGLY: Incomprehensible devastation. Hanako Montgomery, you and your team are doing really important work in Nepal. Thank you very much.

Well, up ahead, George Santos banned for life from the prediction market, Kalshi. Why the platform is also going toe-to-toe with the casinos on the Las Vegas Strip. We'll explain, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:20:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our "Money Lead," several big headlines in the prediction market space. Kalshi banned former Republican congressman, George Santos, for life, accusing him of placing insider bets. Kalshi also suspended Republican Laurie Buckhout for three years after the North Carolina congressional candidate admitted she bet on her own campaign.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas casinos are gearing up for -- quote -- "all-out war" against prediction markets they claim aren't playing fair.

Let's bring in the man who covers all of this every single day, Marshall Cohen. Marshall, I want to start with the B-to-B war because I love industries at war with one another, and this war is nasty and big when it comes to money and potential outcomes. What do you know?

MARSHALL COHEN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Well, it is a war, and that's what so many of the sources I spoke to -- how they described it. You've got the casinos and the sportsbooks on one side, the prediction markets on the other. They are fighting because a lot of people don't realize this, but prediction markets, even though you can bet on sports and other stuff, they're not technically gambling, they're not technically regulated as gambling. That means there's a lot of state laws they don't have to follow, a lot of state taxes they don't have to pay, and there are billions of dollars on the line, tons of litigation across the country.

A huge victory in a casino-backed lawsuit just a few days ago out of Nevada, where a federal appeals court ruled that states actually can move forward and regulate this industry like gambling. Not the final word. Everyone thinks it's going to go to the Supreme Court, but a huge win there.

Phil, I was in Las Vegas a few weeks ago talking to casino executives and state regulators, and they feel like they've got the momentum here. I want to read for you a quote from Derek Stevens. He's the owner of the Circa Resort & Casino. He has sportsbook apps in several states, and he did not pull punches. Look at this. Quote -- "A couple nerds came up with this idea to avoid paying taxes. Just because they're shrewd doesn't mean they should be exempt from the law. These are thieves. They're pirates. They're marauders."

We also reached out to Kalshi. I interviewed their top attorney, Rick Heaslip. They obviously took issue with that. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICK HEASLIP, GENERAL COUNSEL, KALSHI (voice-over): They've been turning to litigation. They've been turning to threats. Rather than innovate, they're just trying to go to the courts.

There are enough sports to go around. It is not our position that they need to follow our regulatory structure. They can continue to have their sportsbooks, and we can continue to have sports prediction markets.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: So, Phil, the fight continues. And, of course, for full disclosure, CNN has a partnership with Kalshi. We use their data to cover major events, but they don't influence our coverage, and we don't trade on prediction markets.

MATTINGLY: One of those, like, oh, this is on the record. This is going to be a great quote from your trip to Las Vegas. OK, really quick, the ban of George Santos, the other congressional candidate as well, what's that all about?

COHEN: Big developments today. Kalshi giving out the first-ever lifetime ban to George Santos. They found that he engaged in insider trading when he was betting earlier this year on whether he was going to attend the State of the Union. He said some things online, hyping up the idea he was going to be there. He put money on it, then he cashed out and didn't show. He denies any wrongdoing and now has been attacking Kalshi as a predatory app.

[17:25:01]

And then, as you mentioned, the congressional candidate in North Carolina, the Republican nominee in the 1st District, that's a Democratic-held district that was redrawn to help the Republicans, but the Republican right now is not really helping herself. Laurie Buckhout, she announced -- she admitted today that she did bet on her own campaign. She's going to face a small fine and a three-year Kalshi suspension.

MATTINGLY: First of many. I have no doubt. Marshall Cohen, great reporting as always, my friend. Thank you.

Well, up next, the first U.S. military strike on Iran in more than a month, was this a limited operation at the start of a major escalation? President Trump's response to that very question, ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [17:30:00]

MATTINGLY: In our "World Lead," the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in a month on Sunday. Here's President Trump this afternoon when asked if these strikes were the start of something bigger.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Look, they're a failed nation, yes, they're a failed nation. They've got 350 percent inflation, they have no currency, they're not paying their soldiers, their leaders are largely dead, their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their surveillance equipment is almost entirely gone. That doesn't mean we won't smack them, we'll see what happens.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: My panel joins me now, Shermichael, I think the question I had after watching this happen on Sunday is, it had been a month since there had been any type of kinetic action on either side, how this ends is still very much a question that I don't have any concept of an answer to. What's your sense of the direction?

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I mean, look, two years it took the Obama administration to get to the JCPOA, an imperfect deal, but something better than nothing. I'm not sure if the President will be able to wrap this up in the next couple of months, but I do think, to his point, the overall infrastructure militarily, for those who have been depleted, if I were advising him, I would take that win and I would get out of there.

I think midterms are quickly approaching, we're likely going to lose the House, that's why Jared Kushner was meeting privately with Minority Leader, soon-to-be Speaker of the State, Hakeem Jeffries, I'm imagining, to figure out what their focus will be to try to protect the President as much as possible.

And so when you're looking at headwinds, turning in that direction against the President, making his agenda extremely more complicated come January 2027, you want to resolve this, Phil, as quickly as you possibly can, because remember, you have Texas, you have Maine, you have Michigan, you have Georgia, and I can go on and on, a ton of very competitive races, where those Republican Senate candidates are going to need any win they could get. I think the onus is on the President to wrap this up.

MATTINGLY: And Chuck, I think that's the complexity of this, as it has been from the beginning, of there's the geopolitical rationale or geopolitical strategy that's run headlong into domestic political realities, from what was supposed to be a four-to-six-week operation that is now on month six, what do you hear on the ground?

CHUCK ROCHA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: There's two things that can be true at the same time, and Shermichael was right, is that if you ask the American public, should Iran have a nuclear weapon, they all would say, no, that's crazy, they should not. But what you're running into is the price of gas being $4.30, and the regular voter, when we're running in a congressional race or a Senate race and doing polling, they say that's their number one issue, because they see it every day.

Sure, health care is an issue, sure, other things are an issue, but the gas prices and the price of bread or ground beef, pick your grocery, is the thing that's got mamas and grandmamas all over the country just pissed.

MATTINGLY: Sabrina, I was struck by, there was an Axios report, which they had an administration official referring to this as mowing the lawn, which my point of reference on mowing the lawn is what the Israelis would do as it related to Hamas, which, just in recent precedent, not necessarily great for how that ended. What's your sense of the military strategy of, look, it makes sense, if you're trying to maintain some semblance of control of the Strait, up in the air, whether that's the case, you take out things when they start to percolate.

SABRINA SINGH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR & GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, this sort of gets back to the question that you asked, Shermichael, is like, what is the endgame here? What is the extraction? What is the goal? Six months ago, the President said this war would take four to six weeks to wrap up. We're over six months now, and there is no exit plan.

And I think, you know, some of the reporting that's come out, particularly "The Washington Post" earlier this, yesterday, reported on the fact that multiple combatant commanders and a service secretary are disagreeing with how the secretary of defense is prosecuting this war because it is putting such a strain on our military readiness, our exercises, and we are pulling essential assets out of the Indo- Pacific, such as a Patriot battery, a Marine unit, and, of course, a carrier.

So I think the question that everyone's asking right now is, how do you wrap this up? Or are we just going to get back to this idea of mowing the lawn, and it kind of becomes this endless war?

MATTINGLY: Yes. Mark, I did want to ask just one thing. I always enjoy when the President does impromptu press conferences, because he will take any question, and credit to him for taking any question, including one about Pete Hegseth potentially running for President. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Well, I think he's doing a fantastic job, but it's very early to talk about that. We have to get through the midterms first. And I think he's a very good guy, but I'll bet there's a lot of people considering it. Right now, all he loves is and all he cares about is the military.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: This is the question, I think there was a story, it might have been NBC earlier in the week, that he had been discussing this. The Department of War said that wasn't the case. You're in the know. Are people talking about Pete Hegseth? Is Pete Hegseth talking about Pete Hegseth potentially running for president?

MARK WILLIAMS, PRINCIPAL, FEROX STRATEGIES: I don't think anyone's talking about Pete Hegseth potentially running for president, except for reporters. You know, if you look at, you know, who the field might be, I don't see his name ever pop up in the top five. So he needs to concentrate on wrapping up Iran, because that's probably what's best for the President, and what could be best for him down the road.

ROCHA: The best thing that could happen to a Democrat here is Pete Hegseth running for president. There's only one person more unpopular than Donald Trump, and that is Pete Hegseth.

[17:35:00]

SINGH: That is true. But I will say, Pete Hegseth, for the Secretary of Defense to be out there on the campaign trail. He has campaigned with multiple Republican candidates in different states. I think it shows a misplaced priority, specifically of this administration. So I would not be surprised if someone like Pete Hegseth says, well, maybe I should run for president.

WILLIAMS: You're putting all the secretaries out on the road. That's just part of what's happening.

SINGH: But the Secretary of Defense is always meant to be apolitical, and is never meant to be a part of the campaign apparatus. And this is particularly unusual with what we have seen Pete Hegseth do.

SINGLETON: It may be unusual, but here's what we know isn't unusual. You have a Vice President who ranks and registers very well with young men. You have a Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who could have an opportunity to solidify the 44, 46 percent of Hispanic voters that Trump got in 2024 and I'm speaking of the Hispanic diaspora, that is. But there will be a sense of pride in voting for someone with a similar kinship.

And so we have a very competitive group of individuals who will absolutely, I predict, run for president. Maybe even Ted Cruz may throw his hat in the ring, compared to someone like a Gavin Newsom, where the taxes are to the roof, where companies are leaving the state, where homelessness is out of control.

ROCHA: I'll see you Republicans and up you 20 Democrats.

SINGLETON: Twenty terrible Democrats, huh?

ROCHA: That's your opinion, Shermichael.

SINGLETON: Twenty terrible Democrats.

MATTINGLY: OK. I want to ask about something. This is my personal obsession. The President weighing in on data centers. Like, if you are involved in anything, if you work in D.C., odds are you have clients. If you work on campaigns, odds are you're polling this, you're hearing about this. Everywhere you go, this has become the issue.

Trump posting on Truth Social on data centers that the -- if they want to end up being backwards and poor would be the rationale for not pursuing data centers, adding, "China could not be happier with this anti-data center movement." This is a complex and fascinating issue that has become very simplified and extraordinarily political. What's your read on it right now?

WILLIAMS: It's amazing to me that it's become front and center and the fact that people are even talking about it on certain campaigns. I'll be honest with you. I don't think a lot of America really understands data centers, what they do, where they are. They just know that they have politicians talking in their ears, hey, they shouldn't be in your neighborhoods. Hey, they're hacking up your electricity.

SINGH: I actually have to disagree with you on that because I think Americans are actually very tuned into data centers. And if you look at the ads that are running across the country right now, I mean, Greg Abbott in Texas, the governor of Texas, in November said Texas was going to be the epicenter of data centers and A.I. growth.

Today, he has walked back that pledge because it is such a toxic issue. I do think there is a real conversation. Like, we can't just pause the A.I. race. Like, we are in it. We have to innovate. We have to continue to grow. But it has to be done in the right way within communities. Well, I don't think Americans are tuned off to this. I actually think they are very tuned into this debate right now.

SINGLETON: And there's one thing, Sabrina, to address the rising cost that a lot of Americans have complained about. But this is going to dictate the next paradigm shift for the global economy and military might. Is that going to be the United States of America or China? And I'm not certain that anybody sitting at this table wants to live in a reality in 50 years where it's the Chinese that's leading the next frontier for the next two centuries.

ROCHA: Look, I'm not sure what a paradigm shift is. But I'll tell you this, they don't like you picking up all the gas and electricity in your neighborhood. Right.

[17:38:16]

MATTINGLY: Chuck defines paradigm, not even knowing he did it. All right. Everybody stand by. We have two Texans on the panel. It's not my choice as an Ohio State guy. It just happened. We need to talk about, though, the state's race for the U.S. Senate, including Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General, pushing back on reports that he claimed not one, not two, but three primary residents since. We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: In our Politics Lead, Texas Attorney General and Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton is responding to reports that he and his former wife claimed three houses in Texas as their primary residences. It's noteworthy because the Trump administration is using similar circumstances to claim Trump critics such as Letitia James, Adam Schiff and Lisa Cook are committing mortgage fraud. Here's Paxton yesterday on "Fox."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEN PAXTON (R-TX), SENATE CANDIDATE: When we bought a new house, we moved our primary residence to a house. So, it was both were dictated by the Constitution. And then they changed the Constitution. They got rid of that requirement that you have, as a statewide officeholder, that you have to have a residence or you have to live, whatever that means, in Austin. So, this idea that somehow that's fraudulent, they, of course, aren't following Texas law.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Chuck? As the top lawyer in Texas explained it, it makes sense now, right?

ROCHA: Look, I'm not a lawyer, but I have hired a lot of lawyers. Let me just leave it at that. And tell you that, hell, I didn't even understand what he was saying. But what I do understand is when you run a T.V. ad, back to ad makers, we were talking about ad makers off air. If you're an ad maker, like some folks at this table, me, you take that and you go, I only own three houses and James Talarico owns one house.

Who do you think more aligns and can understand the hurt that you're going through every single day? When you have the Attorney General who's been impeached by his own party, who stole a man's pen, who stole another man's wife, like I'm saying, this is about cost and corruption. And this is why James Talarico is in this race.

MATTINGLY: Mark, one of the things that I've heard constantly from Republicans, many of whom are acknowledging like this is not what we wanted. And a lot of them, well, John Cornyn, so I'll grant them that even if you want to stipulate, are looking around saying, look, we have so much to use on James Talarico. We have just reams of video that we can use over the course of the last five years. And yet they see this the next day and they're like, come on, man. Like where does this go for Paxton and his team?

WILLIAMS: Yes, it's not helpful because this is time when he could be defining James Talarico and how bad he is for the state of Texas. Because people know who Paxton is in the state. They don't know who Talarico is yet. And so he could be spending that time and money saying, look, he is bad. He should not be elected. But instead he's talking about, you know, three houses and Lord knows where.

[17:45:08]

MATTINGLY: Do you feel like, Shermichael, that the Paxton team can get it together message-wise?

SINGLETON: Oh, we have to. I think to Mark's point, this is an opportunity to define him. There are some real structural issues with James Talarico's campaign. Now, I know Chuck's going to disagree with me here, but I'm principally looking at black voters in particular. You have 34 percent of black men voted for Trump in 2024.

Now, most of them, all of them may not vote for Ken Paxton. Some will. Some may stay home. Some may not vote for Talarico at all. That's a real vulnerability there. And then you have the Jasmine Crockett, Representative Crockett dynamic here. And so if I'm Ken Paxton, I am targeting those more conservative minority voters with some of his more weird, bizarre religious views and saying this is a guy who does not necessarily register with your principal beliefs.

Do you want this person representing you? I think a lot of people would say no. It doesn't mean they'll necessarily vote for Ken Paxton, but it does create a window for Paxton to see a pathway to victory.

MATTINGLY: Sabrina, to Mark's point, like people know who Ken Paxton is in Texas, and he got the nomination in spite of that, because of that in some cases. The Talarico campaign also brought up the real estate issue in his first T.V. attack ad. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in Texas. Since taking office, Ken Paxton's net worth has increased 7,000 percent. He now owns 15 homes, while most Texans can't afford one.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It feels like what we heard one ad maker.

(CROSSTALK)

SINGLETON: Is that your ad?

MATTINGLY: Again, I think the issue is, you know, Shermichael makes a point, it's not the people that they're going after. Your coalition has to be bigger than just Democrats in Texas to win this race. Is that the message that wins that coalition?

SINGH: I actually, I mean, yes, because Talarico, what he's talking about is the disconnect of how Ken Paxton will understand his constituents. This is someone that has been enriching himself in office. It's the same argument that you can make about the Trump, you know, kids himself enriching themselves while they've been in office.

While you're paying more for grocery bills, more for electric bills, your gas prices are higher. And so I do think that argument does resonate with people. But to your point, you can't just be against Trump. You can't just be against Paxton.

You have to be for something. And I actually think Talarico, you know, there's another candidate running for governor, Gina Hinojosa. They've been making the real case of what we're going to do for Texas. And I think that is resonating. And one of the things, whether it be data centers or affordability, that keeps coming up. And I think those issues do resonate with voters.

Can I just also say that I think this is a really interesting race because this is a race that Republicans should not have to spend in. And yet they have such a flawed candidate with Ken Paxton that they are going to have to pull his body over the finish line because they're going to have to spend so much money. And I think if Democrats flip the Senate, it will be because we have great candidates and a singular endorsement of Ken Paxton.

MATTINGLY: Can I just real quick play, because this tees up perfectly, like, the truth teller of all truth tellers, Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana. We appreciate you as reporters because you just say what you're thinking, including this. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KENNEDY (R-LA): We in the Senate don't have the money budgeted for Texas. We need help from the President. The President says he has $850 million in his campaign accounts. That's a lot of jack. I'm hoping that the President's going to spend $100 or $200 million in Texas. But he hasn't committed to it yet. But in the meantime, you know, we've got a race.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Almost as good as his comments on Lane Kiffin the other day. Is he right? Is that kind of the reality here of like MAGA Inc. is going to have to drop eight, nine figures?

WILLIAMS: A boatload of money. It's going to take a lot to get Paxton across the finish line. But at the end of the day, it's a competitive race. And that's what was ultimately going to have to happen. I think --

SINGH: It wouldn't have been competitive, I think, with John Cornyn as competitive.

WILLIAMS: In this environment, I think so. Now, we can hem and haw over that. Cornyn didn't get a good share of the electorate in the runoff. But at the end of the day, history is not on Talarico's side. I think it's been since 1988, since Senator won statewide.

SINGLETON: That's right. That's right.

WILLIAMS: Won a statewide race. So you're going to have to have, and if you see polling, I know we've talked a lot about polling and where Paxton is. The governor is up. And so you're going to have to see huge numbers of split-ticket voters in order for Talarico to pull this across the finish line.

ROCHA: Let me just say this real quick. Paxton, not -- everybody knows Paxton, that's not true, not everybody knows because he's never had to run a general election. He's run a lot of primaries. But he's never had to run an election to everybody. So he's only run it within his party because it's a red state. And to Shermichael's point about reaching everybody, what the campaign is doing is really special.

And I worked for Ann Richards in Texas. I've done a lot of work in Texas. There's a lot of voters that align with Talarico around a number of different things. A, you have this group of people who think he's a nice young man. You have another group of people who are like, somebody's finally calling out the corruption. They feel good about that.

[17:50:01]

Then you have other groups of people, whether they're black, brown, and I'd push back on the black thing. We can have a separate conversation about that. But this vote, this mail, these digital ads, and the ground game, the ground game which is key in the black neighborhoods, in the brown neighborhoods, that's something that's really different in the perfect environment.

SINGLETON: And see, this is an interesting strategy to me. And Chuck, you corrected me if I'm wrong. You're involved with the campaign. It seems the strategy is predicated upon heavy turnout among the Latino community. There's been a lot of flaws. Some have launched against Republicans because of how we have handled immigration.

You have a pool of black voters. Maybe you pull in some disgruntled independents, and then you say mathematical path to victory. You corrected me if I'm wrong.

ROCHA: Cost and corruption, and keep your eye on Republicans who aren't Trump Republicans.

SINGLETON: Yes. I'm not surprised.

ROCHA: Because there's a lot of them who still feel really bad about what happened to John Cornyn.

SINGLETON: I mean, the math works. I got to be honest.

SINGH: Yes. And they're moving over to Talarico because there are people that were in the John Cornyn camp that are moving over to Talarico.

WILLIAMS: The best thing that could happen for Paxton is for Talarico to keep opening his mouth.

SINGLETON: But we've got to define it.

SINGH: I think the best thing for Talarico is if Paxton keeps opening his mouth.

MATTINGLY: I've got good news. We've got like 65 days. We can just have this conversation over and over again. But as long as it's with you guys, I will actually be learning something, which I appreciate. Thank you, guys, very much. Appreciate you.

Well, up ahead, the final stages of two high-profile cases in court. Why prosecutors keep name-dropping Sean "Diddy" Combs in the Tupac Shakur murder trial.

Plus, we'll go live to Massachusetts, where day three of jury deliberations just wrapped in the Lindsay Clancy trial. Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[17:55:38]

MATTINGLY: The breaking news on our Law and Justice Lead. The jury in the Lindsay Clancy trial is done deliberating for the day. Jurors began deliberations last Thursday on whether Clancy is criminally responsible for killing her three children in 2023. CNN's Jean Casarez is outside the courthouse in Plymouth, Massachusetts. Jean, three days, 17 hours of deliberations, still no verdict. What's your sense on the ground right now?

JEAN CASAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And no notes, no questions today that we know of, and the jury asked to leave this afternoon. Well, I wanted to be in that courtroom, and I watched the jury come in. I'm just going to give you the facts, because we don't know what they're thinking, what they're doing. But they filed in. They were stoic, serious, focused. I did not see them at all look at the defendant.

They didn't look at the gallery, and they have been looking at the gallery a little bit. But one female juror in the back row, I had a very clear view. She went to her seat, still standing as they're filing in. She took her hand, and she went like this, and she looked at the ground. And then she went like this, looked at the ground, very serious. And then sat down, continued to look at her lap.

The judge started to speak to the jurors. They looked up, just looked at him, no facial expressions. And normally, they're a little animated to talk with the judge, who's so nice to them. Nothing today. Then they stood up. He said, we'll see you tomorrow morning, 9 o'clock. They turned, they filed out. No interaction, no smiles with each other at all, and they were gone. That's what I saw in the courtroom today.

MATTINGLY: And Jean, you caught up with Clancy supporters outside the courthouse today. What are they telling you?

CASAREZ: Well, there are a lot of female women that are very focused and supportive of Lindsay Clancy. And they sit right outside in the courtyard, and they just sit all day waiting for something to happen. And my producer and I, Sarah, we went and we spoke with some of them. It was very enlightening to hear what they said. And their main focus is the medical system. They let Lindsay Clancy down. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mental illness is a problem in the United States. And I look back at what happened to Andrea Yates, and to now, there's been no improvement. And I also feel that this trial never should have happened.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If someone's coming in complaining of psychosis, I mean, it's a psychiatric emergency. From that perspective, as a health care provider, and just seeing how broken our system is. Lindsay's case, you know, she raised a lot of red flags. Putting this woman behind bars, it's just going to cause more suffering. And it's not going to bring the children back. (END VIDEO CLIP)

CASAREZ: And, of course, the prosecution says otherwise there should be some accountability because three young, beautiful children were not allowed to lead their life. And that there should be a conviction in this case. So, Phil, tomorrow morning, they are back here, 9 o'clock sharp, to begin another day of deliberation in this case.

MATTINGLY: And Jean Casarez, we will certainly be checking back with you again tomorrow. Thank you, as always, for the great reporting. And breaking, in Las Vegas, jury deliberations just started in the Tupac Shakur murder trial.

Dwayne Davis is accused of plotting the 1996 killing near the Las Vegas Strip. In closing arguments, prosecutors again brought up Sean Diddy Combs, reminding jurors Davis once did security for Combs. Earlier this month, prosecutors played an interview in court, in which Davis said Combs agreed to pay him $1 million to kill Shakur and Suge Knight, but never paid up. Combs has always denied involvement in Tupac's killing.

Today, prosecutors also describe Davis as a shot caller, saying his crew, "went hunting for Shakur." As for Davis detailing the shooting in a memoir, prosecutors say jurors should consider that an admission. Davis defense says the writings were embellished. In closing, the defense repeatedly questioned the integrity of evidence and inconsistencies in the initial investigation.

Welcome to The Lead. I'm Phil Mattingly in for Jake Tapper. This hour, the rush is on to find hundreds of missing workers believed to be trapped in tunnels after Nepal's catastrophic flooding last week. Rescue crews and international specialists are searching around the clock. In moments, CNN's Anderson Cooper is on the ground in one of the hardest hit areas.

Plus, another search and rescue operation back here in the United States after flash flooding at the Grand Canyon killed two people with a dozen others still missing. And more rain could pummel the area today. CNN's Ed Lavandera is live at the Grand Canyon ahead.

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