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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Trump Rolls Out Red Carpet for Xi Ahead of Possibly Tense Talks; Maryland Governor Signs Executive Order Targeting Data Centers; Trump Approval Falls to 33 Percent, a Record Low. Docuseries Spotlights School Board Battle In PA Swing County; Officials: U.S. Citizens Injured After ICE Mistakenly Detained Him. Aired 6-7p ET

Aired September 23, 2026 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:00:00]

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to The Lead. I'm Jake Tapper.

This hour, a judge's ruling could literally come at any moment after a hearing this afternoon over the White House's media ban against CNN, MS NOW, and Politico, all of whom are fighting to get their or our access restored. And the judge said he will rule as quickly as possible. Our legal experts are standing by to cover the breaking news.

Plus, that ban means we cannot see what's happening right now at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington, D.C., where Chinese leader Xi Jinping just landed. Soon, he's going to be greeted by President Trump before their official sit-down tomorrow. We'll imagine it in our heads and break down what's at stake before these two meet face-to-face.

Also, another state crackdown on data centers just weeks before the midterms. Maryland Governor Wes Moore is here to explain his new executive order that he says addresses some serious concerns from voters about these data centers.

And Illinois officials say ICE agents mistakenly detained a U.S. citizen over the weekend and then left him injured on the ground when they realized he was not their target. And now local police are investigating. We're going to walk you through cellphone video capturing the struggle.

The Lead tonight, breaking news, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has just landed in the United States, and at this very moment, President Trump is supposed to be greeting him at Joint Base Andrews. It's a crucial first impression to a multi-day trip as the U.S. and China continue to battle for superiority in manufacturing, in trade, and in artificial intelligence.

We would normally be showing you images, video from this pivotal meeting, but we cannot. President Trump's ban on media is in limbo after a federal judge ended a hearing earlier today without a ruling. And the Justice Department argues that stories reported by the likes of CNN and MS NOW and Politico about the White House ballroom or the Iran war are threats to national security.

It's an argument that apparently took the administration a few days to come up with, because as we all remember, the real reason Trump doesn't want the press there is because, as he stated, he does not want negative news coverage. Hear his own words from Friday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: There's something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negative statements.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Actually, that's not true. There's everything right with that country. Even if the vast majority of the American people are dissatisfied with the job the president's doing, a new CNN poll shows his approval rating hit a new low, 33 percent, he is taking this position.

We're going to talk more about the findings from that poll in just a bit, but, first, CNN's Kaitlan Collins joins us now to report on the news. Despite the ban, Kaitlan, this highly anticipated visit's finally happening. Why is President Trump treating Xi Jinping, who many experts think is an adversary, if not enemy of the American people, why is he treating him with such apparent deference?

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: And even a lot of Republicans here in Washington, Jake, think that. And some of them even went to the Senate floor yesterday to state as much in terms of how they're viewing how this visit should happen.

It's safe to say the president is viewing it in much friendlier terms, certainly from the way he treated China in his first term in office. Even from just a few months ago. Remember, he gave that widely touted prime time address at the White House where he accused China of meddling in the 2020 election, a speech that was basically delivered and then never mentioned again either by the White House or the president's allies or the Department of Justice.

And you're seeing the president really do an about-face on that and changing his strategy of how he approaches Xi Jinping, and doing so in a much friendlier way this time around, as is evidenced by what is happening right now.

You're right, Jake, that we can't see this because none of the major five networks are there at Joint Base Andrews as they would typically be to cover this and carry it live. But the president going all the way out to the airport to greet a world leader, something that typically U.S. presidents do not do, is remarkable in and of itself and the fact that Xi Jinping is being afforded a state visit.

But the president basically wanted to return the favor of what happened during his visit to China and to Beijing earlier this year, and basically do that for Xi Jinping. He's been sprucing up the White House. He wanted that helipad installed on the South Lawn of the White House before the Chinese leader was going to show up. And now the question when in terms of this -- you know, what we know about the surface of this visit and what it's going to look like, Jake, is the substance, because there's not real expectations that on artificial intelligence they're going to make any movement. There are questions when it comes to trade, other issues including geopolitical issues, given there have been reports about China helping Iran during the Iran-U.S. war. And so there are huge questions at what that is going to look like. But what we do know is that it is going to be a very carefully choreographed visit where the president is really trying to basically pull out all the stops for Xi Jinping.

TAPPER: Yes. Kaitlan, as the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, he says whenever there is any sort of bilateral meeting with China, the U.S. always brings up wrongfully detained Americans, wrongfully detained in China, two at least are detained in China right now. How high on the priority list are they for President Trump during this summit?

[18:05:02]

COLLINS: Well, the question is whether or not it actually results in anything. Because, remember, previously he brought up issues like Jimmy Lai and said, you know, very clearly that is something that was near and dear to Xi Jinping and something he was not prepared to budge on.

I should note my colleague, Kit Maher, says today that the wife of a scientist who was detained in China did go to the White House, did meet with officials, and does expect President Trump to bring it up with Xi Jinping. The real question, of course, for these families, for their loved ones, is whether or not it means that their loved ones are coming home.

TAPPER: All right. Kaitlan Collins, thanks so much. And, of course, don't miss Kaitlan on her show, The Source with Kaitlan Collins. Her guests tonight include Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. That's tonight at 9:00 Eastern, only here on CNN, banned or not.

Joining us now, CNN National Security Analyst Beth Sasnner and Democratic Congressman Sam Liccardo of California.

Congressman Liccardo, you've been pushing to put guardrails on A.I. But you say these guardrails will not necessarily mean that the U.S. will fall behind China, which is obviously the big concern of people who oppose any sort of government guidelines. How can we have it both ways?

REP. SAM LICCARDO (D-CA): Well, there are several bipartisan proposals to install requirements for guardrails. The question inevitably arises, what about China? And we have to respond to that very affirmatively.

The bill that I'm introducing with Kevin Kiley, a bipartisan bill, is really focusing on how we can get the experts, which are not in the government, they're actually in the private sector, in the universities and think tanks, get them to be talking to their Chinese counterparts, provide a pathway they can do that because right now there are a lot of legal prohibitions, our national security laws and antitrust and other laws, enable them to be able to get the hard technical work moving forward so that we can come up with some common views at least about protocols for testing and evaluation and for verification.

Until we get there, there's always going to be the challenge of whatever regulation we pass in the United States, we're going to be missing the ocean of A.I. models that are ubiquitous now from Chinese open source companies.

TAPPER: So, Trump made it clear at the U.N. yesterday he doesn't want to see a, quote, globalist scheme, that's what he called it, to control A.I. And House Speaker Johnson has shown very little appetite to regulate A.I. I had him on State of the Union two Sundays ago, he talked about immediately he was going to convene a meeting of all the leaders. I don't think that happened. Do you have any hope even that this could get a vote?

LICCARDO: Well, I believe that certainly the pressure's building. The American public is very concerned. All the polls certainly suggest it's a bipartisan supermajority of the American public that wants to see some sensible safeguards. We're certainly seeing that from leadership within the A.I. labs and I think importantly even within the administration.

Look, you wouldn't be seeing, you know, the commerce secretary sidelining Mythos, a frontier model, unless they were concerned, as they said, about national security and cybersecurity. Similarly, you're talking about -- you know, they're talking now about the development of a red phone between China and the United States. I think Bessent said that, now Secretary Rubio.

Obviously, there's concern about A.I. risk.

TAPPER: Yes.

LICCARDO: And the question is, are we going to establish red lines and develop those red lines so we don't need to use the red phone?

TAPPER: Beth, let's turn to the issue of Taiwan because this afternoon, the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said the U.S. is committed to arm sales to Taiwan. But an editorial in the People's Daily, an op-ed in the People's Daily, which is a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, written by China's ambassador to the U.S., warns, quote, China's sovereignty, security, and development interests must not be violated. The four red lines concerning the Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, China's political system, and development path, and its right to development must not be challenged.

That seems pretty direct. Is that how the Chinese regularly talk about this issue?

BETH SANNER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Yes and no. I mean, this was a pretty direct statement in a very public way, you know, on the day that President Xi left China. And so, you know, it was pretty in your face. You know, here the president's going to Andrews Air Force Base and rolling out the red carpet with graciousness.

And, you know, this isn't exactly like how I would set up a gracious meeting, is by saying, oh, you better not talk about X, Y, and Z.

TAPPER: Right.

SANNER: So, I don't think it's -- you know, certainly, these aren't new red lines. But look, you know, on Taiwan and the arm sales, first, we have to give credit to the Trump administration that they already approved a bigger arm sale for Taiwan in the first year than Biden did in four years, okay? That's true.

Now, we have a $14 billion package that has been approved that Trump put on hold right after he met with President Xi in May in Beijing.

[18:10:03]

And he came on the plane, and he basically threw away 40 years of U.S. diplomacy and our way of doing our relationship with Taiwan and China. He threw it out the window, and he said, no. You know, I had a conversation about this with President Xi, and we're -- you know, I think it's a bargaining chip. It's not supposed to be a bargaining chip.

TAPPER: Yes.

SANNER: But, you know, this is exactly what China wanted. They wanted us to delay, and now one of the things that could come out of this meeting is an agreement to have two more meetings this year, which will be unprecedented.

This is good in that the leaders in these systems are very powerful, but what are we giving in exchange? This is what Kaitlan was going to in her initial comments. How much are we giving away?

TAPPER: Yes.

SANNER: And what China wants us to give away is delay these arm sales at least until 2027, if not forever.

TAPPER: So, Congressman, there are a number of China hawks, not just in the Democratic Party, but in the Republican Party, and one of them is the Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, Roger Wicker, who's not happy about the red carpet literally and figuratively being rolled out for President Xi. Take a listen to part of his floor speech from Tuesday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. ROGER WICKER (R-MS): Quite frankly, had the White House asked me for advice, I would've suggested the president not invite Xi Jinping to Washington for such a lavish welcome.

Our commander-in-chief should keep in mind that his guest is a brutal, unelected, and oppressive dictator.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Does this shock you that Wicker would say that?

LICCARDO: Well, no. But look, I think beyond the appearance of rolling out the red carpet, more important is this issue of capitulation that was just referred to. You know, we should not be breaking our commitments to Taiwan that paid for weapons and not delivering them when it's critical, obviously, to their defense. That is something that I'm more deeply concerned about than appearances.

TAPPER: Final thought?

SANNER: Yes, I mean, I think that President Trump believes that having this tete-a-tete and having a good personal relationship will allow us to have tough talk. That's good. But what we should understand about this meeting is that both sides want stability in this very unstable relationship right now in order to buy time.

Both China and the United States want this time to build up our capacity so we're not so vulnerable to the other, and we have a very unstable equilibrium going on right now that can fall apart.

TAPPER: Yes. I just wonder how much it's magical thinking. The president's who, as you know, we've discussed has charisma, has charm to him, as the ambassador from U.K. said, but it didn't work with Kim Jong-un. It hasn't worked with anybody in Iran, and it hasn't worked with Vladimir Putin. It hasn't worked with Xi Jinping. And so I don't know what magic special sauce is going to do.

LICCARDO: We have had more than 40 ceasefires, though, in Iran.

SANNER: Yes.

TAPPER: Well, that's a record.

Beth Sanner and California Democratic Congressman Sam Liccardo, thanks to both of you.

Brand-new CNN polling out today shows how voters feel about both parties less than six weeks out from the midterm elections. We're digging into the data and why it does seem like bad news is coming for Republicans.

Plus, the son of the Israeli ambassador to the United States was critically injured today in a car ramming attack. What we're learning about his condition and the driver responsible.

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[18:15:00]

TAPPER: In our World Lead, the son of the Israeli ambassador to the United States was critically injured in a car ramming attack in the occupied West Bank that the government of Israel is calling a terrorist attack. That's according to regional authorities. Today's incident comes just one day before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's scheduled speech at the United Nations.

CNN's Jeremy Diamond has the latest.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, the ambassador's son was critically wounded in what Israeli authorities are calling a car ramming attack that took place in the occupied West Bank.

Neria Leiter, a reservist Israeli soldier, was manning a military checkpoint near the settlement of Beit Horon when a car struck him. He was subsequently rushed to the hospital in Jerusalem. He was unconscious and in critical condition. The assailant was identified as a 29-year-old Palestinian man from a nearby village. He was shot and killed at the scene.

The -- Neria Lighter's father, the Israeli ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, said in a statement that his son needs a miracle, saying, quote, I believe in the power of prayer, and I believe that when the people of Israel unite, miracles happen. And those prayers are flooding in from U.S. officials like the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, and a slew of top Israeli officials, including the Israeli prime minister, who visited Neria Lieter's family in the hospital in Jerusalem before flying to New York for the U.N. General Assembly.

It's also worth noting that another of Lieter's sons was killed in November of 2023 while deployed to Gaza at the beginning of that war. This is the second attack this week against Israelis in the West Bank. An Israeli man was killed three days earlier when a Palestinian gunman opened fire near a spring in the West Bank.

It's also important to note that this comes against a backdrop of rising violence against Palestinians in the West Bank as well this year in particular, including Israeli settler attacks that have so far killed 23 Palestinians and wounded 1,100 others, according to the United Nations. Jake?

TAPPER: Jeremy Diamond in Tel Aviv, Israel, thank you.

Perhaps the hottest bipartisan debate across the country, data centers. One Democrat just cracked down on the massive buildings powering the A.I. boom in his state, despite applauding them just two years ago. We're going to ask him why next.

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[18:20:00]

TAPPER: In our Tech Lead, Maryland is becoming the latest state to crack down on data centers. Today, Maryland's Democratic governor Wes Moore signed an executive order putting some guardrails on companies looking to build data centers in the state. The executive order also establishes a task force that will oversee data center projects.

Governor Wes Moore joins us now. Governor, why was this important for you to do now? GOV. WES MOORE (D-MD): Well, it was important to make sure that that we're being clear that believing in economic development and protecting your people do not have to be competing ideas. And I think we had to be able to act because we are seeing both the size and the scope of these data centers. They have continued to evolve and change.

These data centers now are requiring more, and they're drawing more. They're drawing more when it comes to our energy grid. They're drawing more and when it comes to our environmental concerns. And also we have a federal government that does not seem to be concerned, a federal government that that continues to pull away guardrails, and a federal government that continues to invite them in without any type of parameters.

And so I listen to the people of my state, and I'm always going to protect the people of my state. And so we thought this executive order, by being able to put together high bars as to what it looks like and being able to be responsive, what was -- what really what mattered.

[18:25:07]

TAPPER: In 2024, during your second State of the State address, you said this. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOORE: We will invest in industries of the future with funding for life sciences and biotech and data centers and cyber.

We will cut red tape so that Maryland is the friendliest state in the nation to start and build a business.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Do you believe that anything that you said there is now contradicted by your executive order?

MOORE: No, because I think that even just yesterday, I mean, I was in College Park, Maryland, opening up the Discovery District, talking about the $1 billion capital of quantum initiative that we have, which is now bringing hundreds of jobs down to College Park and making sure that Maryland can become the leading quantum element within the country. But I also do believe that you still have to protect your people. I still also believe that you still need to have guardrails.

And, you know, I was very clear in fact in that same speech where I talked about that we need to make sure that these data center companies are paying their -- you know, paying their -- you know, paying for all of their energy cost, that they're making sure they're not polluting our air and polluting our water, that they're hiring local union workers, and that local jurisdictions still get the final say.

And so, you know, with this executive order, it just ensures that all of those things are now solidified and hardened. And also that we have eliminated the financial tax giveaway that started in 2020 before I became the governor that was really saying that we're inviting these data center companies in, but they were writing the rules.

Data center companies and these big tech companies, they will not write the rules in the state of Maryland while I'm the governor. We will make sure that we write the rules for them to be able to follow.

TAPPER: According to local reports, Baltimore County voted yesterday to extend its data center moratorium through 2027. In June, Hartford County became the first in Maryland to permanently ban data centers. Why not issue a ban or at least a moratorium as those two counties have done?

MOORE: So, in the state of Maryland, land use is a local function. The state does not have jurisdictional authority on it. And right now, as you mentioned, about half of the jurisdictions in the state of Maryland do have either bans or pauses on data centers, but there is another half that does not, and who are actually working towards thinking through what are the economic benefits that they have for it.

And so what I've done with this executive order is basically say this, while in Maryland land use is a local jurisdiction function, for those who have banned it or put pauses on it, you will never have a state that is going to override that. A no is a no. And for those who have not banned it, what I'm saying is the bar is remarkably high, and it is not moving, because we are going to protect Marylanders all throughout this process.

TAPPER: A lot of these data centers are obviously coinciding with the A.I. boom. A new CNN poll asks Americans how a certain number of issues have affected their financial situation. One of them is the increasing use of A.I. 18 percent of Americans in our poll say it's had a positive effect on their financial situation. 48 percent say it's had a negative effect on the increasing use of A.I.

What do you say to Marylanders who are fearful about the fact that A.I. is increasing so much?

MOORE: Well, I'd say a lot of Marylanders are concerned, and that concern is justified, and also because we do not have a federal administration that is actually taking this seriously. You know, when I look at those poll numbers, do you know who falls in the 18 percent? Donald Trump, because over 30 percent of his personal portfolio is in A.I. companies. And so it's not surprising to any of us that he is not putting guardrails on something that is a remarkably powerful technology.

And so that's actually why, earlier this week, for the people of the state of Maryland, I laid out what are my guidelines for how A.I. can be used within the state of Maryland, where I've said we are going to focus on protecting both our pocketbooks, but also protecting -- you know, protecting our infrastructure, because we have large infrastructure in Maryland that has to be protected from A.I., that we said we are going to protect our workers, and that labor and labor leaders would be at the table when it comes to A.I. deployment. And also for, and primarily, we are going to protect our children, protect our children from these deepfakes, protect our children from these predatory chatbots, protect our children from these negative algorithms. And so because the federal government -- now, there needs to be a federal leadership on this, but we're not going to wait for Congress to go back to work, and we're not going to wait for the White House to catch religion on this. In the state of Maryland, we're going to protect our people.

TAPPER: Maryland Governor Wes Moore, thank you so much, sir. I appreciate it.

[18:30:00]

MOORE: Thank you.

TAPPER: A brand-new CNN poll shows President Trump's approval ratings are more dismal than ever. We're going to break down the numbers and discuss his popularity, or lack thereof, and how it will impact the midterms.

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TAPPER: In our Politics Lead, there is a brand-new CNN poll out today, and you'll be hard-pressed to see it as anything other than a repudiation by voters of President Trump. 44 percent of voters say their midterm vote will be in opposition to Trump. Just 19 percent say it will be a show of support for him.

As far as his job approval rating, it's hit a new low, 33 percent job approval rating. As for his handling of the economy, the number one midterm issue, just 27 percent support the president on how he's handled the economy.

So, how is Trump's performance affecting Republicans' chances of holding on to the House and Senate? Well, Democrats hold an eight- point lead on the generic House ballot, 49 percent to Republicans' 41 percent.

Joining us now is Republican Strategist Shermichael Singleton, former DNC Communications Director Mo Elleithee, and the publisher of The Bulwark, Sarah Longwell, who has a new book out, "How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time". It's entering its second week on The New York Times bestseller list.

SARAH LONGWELL, PUBLISHER, THE BULWARK: That's right.

TAPPER: That's right.

[18:35:00]

Congratulations on that.

Shermichael, I'm going to start with you. Only 27 percent approve of Trump's handling of the economy. That's an issue that Republicans generally lead on. SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes.

TAPPER: A major drain on Americans' finances right now, obviously high gas prices, diesel prices, stems from the war in Iran. How much will the war ultimately affect the election?

SINGLETON: Oh, I think it's significant. I think it's the number one reason why you're seeing a number of Republican candidates try to distance themselves from the president. You've seen people remove him from their websites. They're no longer talking about how close they were in terms of proximity of being a MAGA warrior as much as it's all about, I understand your pain, I recognize things are expensive, I understand that this war is costing Americans billions of dollars a day, we have to resolve it quickly, this is a focus of mine.

And from the lot of -- the number of conversations I'm having, from the NRSC on down, everyone recognizes this. We have significant cash reserves. We're not giving up on any of our Senate candidates. We're going to spend that money wisely. We have significant financial advantages compared to our Democratic components -- opponents.

And while it's going to cost us, while it's going to be more challenging, I'm almost certain, Jake, we keep the Senate. The House, I think, we lose. I think Democrats will probably get 25 seats, if I'm being quite honest with you.

TAPPER: Do you think -- so he was just alluding to the fact that some very conservative Republicans who are running for statewide office, John Husted in Ohio, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin, are saying the war has to end. We need to end the war. Do you think that Republicans will lose the Senate?

LONGWELL: I do think Republicans will lose the Senate, and I don't think Donald Trump will end the war. And, look, I do focus groups with voters day in and day out, and here's the thing. Voters are mad about the war. They are mad about gas prices, and there's this enormous enthusiasm gap.

So, Democrats right now will crawl over broken glass to vote, and Republicans, they're not that into their local candidates, Husted. I was just doing a focus group, and the Republicans on Husted were like, I don't really know anything about him. He's not that interesting.

TAPPER: He was appointed to the position, we should note.

LONGWELL: That's right. But he was the lieutenant governor. I mean, he was -- he's been there a long time. And voters --

TAPPER: He was the lieutenant governor?

LONGWELL: And people just -- they don't know anything about him. They're not interested in him. And so that enthusiasm gap is, I think -- and Democrats already have a structural advantage in midterms. Donald Trump really is a turnout machine for rural voters in general elections, but those same people often don't turn out in the midterms. So, Democrats were already at an advantage. You add the fact that Republicans aren't that interested in protecting this administration's record, that leads to that enthusiasm gap.

TAPPER: Let me then go to Mo. I haven't gone to Mo yet. I'll come back to you.

MO ELLEITHEE, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE OF POLITICS AND PUBLIC SERVICE: I'm enjoying this, you guys just talking.

TAPPER: Among Republican and Republican-leaning male voters younger than 45, more than half disapprove of the war in Iran. Young men, of course, obviously a key voting bloc for the president in the past. Also, among non-MAGA Republicans, 54 percent disapprove of the war.

I don't think Democrats have done everything they can to capitalize on this. Do you disagree?

ELLEITHEE: No. I think -- look, I think Democrats every day should be out there hammering away this message about connecting the war to affordability, right? Like that's it. People are really upset about this war. They don't understand why we're there, and they don't understand -- so they don't understand why they're paying such high prices at the pump, why they're paying such high prices walking down the grocery aisle. It's because of the war, and it's because of tariffs.

If Democrats are out there talking about that every day and then reminding them what it is that Donald Trump actually is focused on, his ballroom, you know, the arch --

TAPPER: Banning the media from the White House.

ELLEITHEE: Right, banning the media from the White House, that's what he's focused on instead of ending this war.

And everyone seems to get that this is a problem for him, except for him, except for the president. And when he goes out there and talks about how great everything is, how -- even his vice president's shying away from that message a little bit, how great everything is, when he keeps hammering away how great everything is, how we're winning the war, and look at my ballroom, Democrats need to keep focused on that.

TAPPER: Shermichael?

SINGLETON: Well, I'm kind of happy that you guys are kind of all over the place in disarray. I mean, despite the fact that there is an immense opportunity for you guys, your favorabilities --

TAPPER: The Democratic Party.

SINGLETON: House side, Democratic Party --

TAPPER: Not you specifically.

SINGLETON: -- it's not that great. TAPPER: You're very fair.

SINGLETON: I believe there's a six-point advantage on the House side. I mean, look, historically --

TAPPER: It's true, Democrats do not have a high favorability.

ELLEITHEE: No, they don't.

SINGLETON: Historically, if this was 2018, 2010, or 2006, you would almost guarantee a 60-seat majority in the House. That is unlikely to happen for a number of structural reasons. There are far fewer competitive Congressional districts today.

I understand Sarah's point about the enthusiasm gap, and yet that is not enough from what I have seen from internal data on our side, enough for Democrats to have a 50-seat majority in the House, Sarah.

[18:40:03]

And even on the Senate side, I'll give it to you that there are certainly far more competitive races than I would certainly prefer. But I do think that cash advantage does give us an opportunity structurally with our ground game operations to turn out our people, to try to increase that through enthusiasm, to hold onto those seats.

LONGWELL: What are you going to spend the money talking about? Is it just trans sports? Is that what are you going to do? There is no agenda to protect. Republicans have passed nothing. They've done nothing. All they've done is tariffs, which have raised people's prices.

SINGLETON: That's fair.

LONGWELL: And they've gone to war, which Donald Trump and the entire administration promised they wouldn't do.

The voters know that they have been lied to, Republican voters. Like -- and when you say, you know, the Democratic Party as a whole, they don't have a great rating. The individual candidates, the fact that Donald Trump had to go to Dallas, he had to go to Texas to hold his little convention because --

TAPPER: Ken Paxton.

LONGWELL: Ken Paxton might lose in Texas.

SINGLETON: But that's because of the candidate. Sure, sure.

LONGWELL: I'm sorry, but when Texas is in play and you've got a Democrat who once said there were six genders, is beating Paxton in every poll because Paxton is so corrupt, I think that's a real problem for Republicans.

SINGLETON: No. Sarah, I'm not disavowing your critiques. I think they're all legitimate. My point here simply is this, having toss-up Senate races, more competitive races, does not mathematically translate to an easy win or a correlation to a win for Democrats. There are still, what I would argue, historical foundational things that must be considered here, the number of registered voters in certain states, the fact that there are, there is and have been a slight increase in Republican enthusiasm over the past couple of weeks of internal data that I have seen.

TAPPER: Do you think Republicans are going to win the House?

SINGLETON: So, the point that I'm simply saying is --

TAPPER: Or keep the House?

SINGLETON: No, we're not keeping the House. There's no way in the world we're keeping the House.

TAPPER: Yes. Okay.

SINGLETON: I'm simply saying the Senate, it's going to be challenging, it's going to be tough, but every data point that I have seen internally suggests to me that we still keep the Senate.

LONGWELL: I mean, just look at the behavior of the candidates. You've got Ashley Hinson coming out and saying --

TAPPER: She's running for Senate in Iowa.

SINGLETON: Yes.

LONGWELL: In Iowa, okay, a state that Republicans should feel very comfortable and safe with, and yet she is coming out demanding that Congress come back, that they end the war, that they do something about it, because she's scared.

SINGLETON: She has to.

LONGWELL: Her internals must look very scary at the moment.

TAPPER: And the two -- and two or three House Republicans from Iowa have voted in favor of the War Powers Act to tell Trump to stop the war, Nunn, Miller-Meeks. I mean, it's -- that's really shocking.

LONGWELL: Yes. I mean, I haven't seen this many Republicans break publicly with Trump and run away from him since directly after January 6th.

SINGLETON: But I think they have to, Sarah.

LONGWELL: And his polling right now is actually lower than it was right after January 6th.

ELLEITHEE: It's going to be close.

TAPPER: Final word.

ELLEITHEE: It's going to be close. Kevin McCarthy had a five-seat majority. Nancy Pelosi had a five-seat majority. We are a divided nation.

SINGLETON: Yes, we are.

ELLEITHEE: It's going to be close however it plays out. But Democrats right now are running on simply the advantage of being not Donald Trump.

SINGLETON: I agree with that.

ELLEITHEE: Right? Because that's -- you know, their favorable ratings, that's something they're going to have to deal with come November, right, come January. But for now, Donald Trump is weak.

SINGLETON: It'll help in the House. I'm not convinced about the Senate.

TAPPER: Thanks one and all. And, again, check out Sarah Longwell's new book, "How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time". It's out now. Two weeks on The New York Times bestseller list, 60 million Elvis fans can't be wrong, right?

Up next, the Academy Award-winning director behind Rain Man and his fellow director and producer join us to talk about their new docuseries on one of the most politically divided communities in the country right outside the great city of Philadelphia.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:47:29]

TAPPER: In the national lead, one of America's most closely watched swing counties outside Philadelphia is now the subject of a new documentary. It's a county that voted for Biden in 2020, but Trump in 2024. Kamala Harris campaigned there twice I think with Liz Cheney.

It's idyllic Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Friends soon became enemies after the COVID pandemic exposed even more of their deepest political differences. While community members battle to preserve relationships in that county, the battle for school board control is at the center of this documentary.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I approach every board meeting with, like, a pit in my stomach.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We are seeing a pattern of threats and violence.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Shut the (EXPLETIVE DELETED) up.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's for you, buddy.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've been called antisemitic.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Fascist.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A transphobe.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Child abuser.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The cause of COVID.

UNIDENTIFIED BOY: A school shooter.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've been called everything except a neighbor.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Filmmaker Robert May from the Oscar winning "Fog of War", an Academy Award winning director, Barry Levinson of "Rain Man", and so many other great films teamed up for this project, and they join me now.

Barry, you first went to Bucks County in 2022 to film. What was your goal when you began this project, and do you think that what you ended up with ultimately achieves what you set out to do?

BARRY LEVINSON, DIRECTOR & PRODUCER, "BUCKS COUNTY, USA": Well, you know, it evolved as we went along. The key to it was for us not to basically be asking the questions, you know, what do you think about this? Why this or whatever? We just wanted to film a community that is in conflict with itself. And so, we just wanted to let people speak, hear what they have to say, follow some of the events.

Robin was on a -- Robert was on the ground in in that community for, I don't know, was it four years now? You know, to basically just cover how these people react with one another and why it is so difficult to agree and find some answers and have some common ground.

TAPPER: Robert, there's a -- there's this friendship that you focus on throughout the episodes between these two girls whose parents are on opposite sides of this political chasm in the community.

[18:50:00]

What stood out to you the most throughout the time you spent with these two girls and with their folks?

ROBERT MAY, DIRECTOR & PRODUCER, "BUCKS COUNTY, USA": Well, for one thing, we spent four years with them and really watched them grow up. And you know, Evie is a self-proclaimed extrovert and, and Vanessa is an introvert. And to see their personalities grow in front of us as they grew, they matured. But their friendship, you know, nothing was interfering with their friendship. As a matter of fact, they were hesitant to be part of the project because they just didn't want the very fact that we'd be filming them and talking with them to interfere with their friendship.

So it was remarkable to see, it was remarkable to see them grow up and react to all that was going on in the community.

TAPPER: So, this all started during COVID, Barry. But it devolved and became about other conflicts. LGBTQ representation, book bans in the curriculum. Did it ever seem as though any one of these issues would be a final breaking point for this community? That that no one would ever be able to move past?

LEVINSON: Well, I mean, you can wonder and you say, why is it they can't figure out and have some common ground? I mean, if you're having problems in the school board and you have disagreements, is there no way to finally just simply find a common ground and move from there as opposed to confrontations that keep, you know, feeding this kind of opposition to one another to the point that were they're not really listening to one another well enough.

Look, all democracies require that -- information and debate and discussion. And that was not happening there. And, uh, we're trying to show what events were taking place.

TAPPER: Robert, not to spoil anything, but later on in the series, we get to see how some of the cast reacts to viewing some of the earlier episodes when they're shown at the Sundance Film Festival. Were you at all surprised by their response to their portrayals?

MAY: Well, I mean, I've been to Sundance a couple times, and with films and without films, and I've never quite seen an audience react the way they did. There were some people that just wanted to make statements. There were people that had questions. It really struck a nerve with the audiences. And I think just like the two girls, say in the series, we -- you may see yourself or someone, you know in the series.

And I believe that in the audience that was true, that there were people there that could identify with different parts of the series, in particular, different people within the series. And that strikes a nerve in and of itself.

TAPPER: Barry, as we head into the November midterms, we talk a lot about the national races. I wonder how much you think more the school boards and counties across the country will see echoes of the of the divide that they feel in their lives, in their community when they watch your show. Or do you think that Bucks County is uniquely split because it is such a -- such a 50/50 county? I mean, Donald Trump won it by like hundreds of votes. Not, not by any sort of landslide.

LEVINSON: Well, I mean, it's a good question and I'm not sure I can give you a really good answer to it. Yes, it is. You know, 50/50 area. But no matter what we're talking about a democracy and, you know, there's the famous quote from, you know, Franklin, that we give you a republic, you know, if you can handle it. And, we look at where we are now, we have such opposition that we can't hear one another and find common ground.

And by trying to show this and then them viewing what they were saying and how they were functioning with one another, I think sort of surprised us when they actually sit down and, and see it, you know, for themselves. Robert was there at one of the screenings, and he can fill you in more about the specifics of that, which I think surprised all of us, how much contention there was that took place.

TAPPER: Well, I would love to do that. And I'd love to host you guys over for dinner. We're out of time, unfortunately. If you come to D.C., please let me know.

"Bucks County, USA" is airing now on PBS. Robert May and Barry Levinson, two of the greats. Thank you so much for talking to us about it. We really appreciate it.

We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[18:58:40]

TAPPER: I'm a effing U.S. citizen, you heard there. Disturbing cell phone video captured ICE agents near Chicago mistakenly detaining a U.S. citizen on Sunday. The man was left injured on the ground, local authorities say.

CNN's Whitney Wild is here.

Whitney, what are we learning about this incident?

WHITNEY WILD, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT CORRESPONDENT: Well, this information, Jake, is coming from witnesses. The Evanston Police Department, which responded, and the Department of Homeland Security itself.

Here's what DHS says happened. They say during a targeted enforcement operation in Evanston, Illinois, ICE encountered an individual who resembled the target. They go on to say that they tried to contact this person. He would not give them identification. He was not cooperative.

The DHS statement goes on to say ICE officers relied on their training and later left the scene without further incident. Once the individual finally identified himself. When ICE officers offered the individual assistance, he refused.

Jake, they skip over the injuries. They don't give any detail into what actually, how it actually happened that he was hurt. Witnesses say that he reported that he had injuries to his head, neck and teeth. They called an ambulance. The Evanston Police Department is continuing to investigate, collecting any relevant body camera video, as well as witness video that was collected at the scene, Jake.

TAPPER: Wendy Wild, thank you so much. Appreciate it.

If you ever miss an episode of THE LEAD, you can watch the show on the CNN app.

"ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT" starts right now.