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CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip
Now, House Takes Key Vote to Advance Trump's Agenda Bill; Trump's Agenda on Line as House Votes on Whether to Advance. CNN Follows House Members Voting Yes Or No To Spending Bill. Aired 10-11p ET
Aired July 02, 2025 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[22:00:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): Tonight, the final battle over Donald Trump's agenda. But is it passionate?
REP. CHIP ROY (R-TX): Already take it or leave it legislating.
PHILLIP: Or performative?
REP. TIM BURCHETT (R-TN): They told me you like seeing me on T.V. It is kind of cool.
PHILLIP: Plus, liberals searching for their own paradise, try to navigate their current hell.
REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-NY): This bill is a deal with the devil.
Also, Paramount pays the price, but at what cost to journalism as the First Amendment falls under attack?
And the 30-year-old who Trump wants to be a watchdog shared 9/11 conspiracies has ties to a Holocaust denier and said straight white men are smarter than everyone.
Live at the table, Scott Jennings, Xochitl Hinojosa, Shermichael Singleton and Dan Koh.
Americans with different perspectives aren't talking to each other, but here, they do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: Good evening. I'm Abby Phillip in Washington.
Let's get right to what America's talking about, a mega bill in the balance. Right now, the House is voting on whether to advance Donald Trump's agenda after Republican hardliners threatened to hold out over its massive price tag. But after hours of delay and a White House summit, Speaker Mike Johnson is determined to hold a vote, calling the bluff of those hardliners.
And we're also learning that Trump's pitch is essentially don't give a win to Democrats by denying him this bill. That was the message when he hosted the hardliners at the White House, and he threw them compliments, using what's being described as the honey and not vinegar approach. In fact, one Republican who voted against the bill back in May suggested that he'd change and support it now just to own the libs. Warren Davidson says the bill is not perfect, but, quote, I think one of the other persuasive things was just looking at the Democrat's reaction to it. Maybe the bill is better than I thought. The Democrats' reaction helped persuade me that, wow, maybe this bill does do some really good things.
Now, remember, Trump can only afford to lose three Republican votes, and right at this moment, as we speak, we are watching on Capitol Hill there's more than that. We're going to go straight to Lauren Fox on the Hill.
Lauren, where are we now and what is happening behind the scenes? I'm seeing four nays on the Republican column.
LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, and they can only lose three, Abby. So, obviously this is not trending in the right direction.
Now, this could certainly shift. This could change, as I've been saying, but it's really important right now to watch what's happening on the floor. Our colleague, Sarah Ferris, who is sitting inside the chamber, she is laying out that Johnson is having conversations with folks. He is clearly trying to change the dynamics of this vote in real time. And sometimes that pressure can start to work, especially as members start to feel like, okay, this is the moment that they're going to have to decide whether they're going to vote for this bill or not. Because they have been having conversations for about eight hours now over whether or not they could get there. Now is the time to decide.
Now, we do know that there is at least one of these Republicans, Brian Fitzpatrick, who hails for more of a swing district, that obviously is really interesting because that does show you that this isn't just conservatives that leadership has to appease right now. They have some work to do on some of those more moderate members as well in part because of the changes to Medicaid that came out of the Senate bill.
So, this process is still obviously very much underway on the House floor right now, but leadership has made clear, they want to try to get this to the president's desk by July 4th. They don't feel like this gets better the longer it hangs out, and they felt like they had to keep the momentum, keep the pressure on all of these members.
You can talk around a table in a closed door room forever and ever in Congress. At some point, you do have to vote. And, clearly, Johnson is hoping that the pressure of the president watching who is yes and who is no could start to have an impact, could start to move these votes.
It's really interesting. [22:05:00]
Ralph Norman, who had been saying all day, he had concerns, he seems to be moving in a direction that he can support this. Obviously, that is really a key indicator here that some members have been moved by these conversations throughout the day.
I talked to Warren Davidson earlier today. He made clear that after multiple conversations with the president and the White House, he got to yes, even after he voted against this bill back in May. Abby?
PHILLIP: Yes. And, Lauren, the vote is still open. And just to underscore what you just said, it ain't over because people can change their votes. You know, we have several no votes still outstanding. So, we'll see what things ha transpire over the next maybe minutes, maybe hours, however long this takes. We'll be watching very closely.
Lauren, stay close. We'll be right back with you.
Back here in the studio, hey, this is where the rubber meets the road. This is a vote on the rule, so it's a procedural step, but it's an important procedural step. And coming into this moment, Donald Trump had the Republicans who were sort of on the fence over to the White House, he was buttering them up, compliments, telling them how great they were on T.V., you know, showing them, you know, tchotchkes in the Oval Office. And that actually is very effective. But at the end of the day, the bill has some provisions in there that both increase the deficit and also make a tough case for people who are worried about these Medicaid cuts.
XOCHITL HINOJOSA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, absolutely. I mean, I think the most telling piece in this vote right now is the fact that Fitzgerald is a no. I mean, that is a swing district. Republicans are either have to walk the plank for Donald Trump and risk losing their seat, which I'm assuming Fitzgerald is looking at people losing their healthcare, people coming off of food assistance, nursing homes closing, et cetera, or you potentially say no to Donald Trump and are primaried and have MAGA movement against you.
And so I think that Republicans are in this very difficult situation. This bill is not popular. Fox News has it underwater by 21 points. This bill -- and Republicans understand that. They understand that going into the midterm elections, Democrats will continue to message on the fact that Republicans have taken away their healthcare, and now we're seeing the reality play out on television right now with these votes.
Republicans don't want to vote for this. They know that they could potentially lose their seats. And right now, it is going to be up to Donald Trump to pull this together. What I also don't understand is if Nancy Pelosi were speaker right now, she would've never brought this to a vote. She would've never brought this to the floor without an actual vote.
PHILLIP: There's a bit of an element of surprise about where we are right now, which is why, you know, as Lauren pointed out, what's the action on the floor is what we're watching because they're scurrying around trying to figure out who they can move over.
It seems to me the bill would probably only become more conservative, not less conservative. I'm not sure it's going to move in the moderate direction, but I could be wrong.
DAN KOH, FORMER WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY CABINET SECRETARY UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN: I think the American public are seeing something very simple, that the little guys getting screwed, the big guys are getting what they want. If you want $7,500 for your car, you're not going to get it, but the oil and pharma subsidies are still in there, right? If you want healthcare, you're going to have more bureaucracy and forms to fill out, but billionaires keep their carried interest loophole. Many of them are still paying 0 percent effective tax rate.
Affordable housing money is getting cut, but real estate developers are still able to write-off their depreciation, right? Audits for the rich are getting cut, but 87 percent of audits are still for people under $200,000. People see this as the crock that it is, and is a reminder for people that the system is rigged against them.
PHILLIP: Is this a warning sign?
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, first of all, they're going to leave this vote open all night, if necessary. They've got four nos right now. A bunch of the Republicans haven't voted yet, so they will leave this open and open and opn until they get there, I think, is what I'm hearing from the House floor. That's number one.
Number two, you know, to put your name up in lights at this point as a Republican to say, I'm the person who's stopping the president's agenda, that's a thing. And so, you know, this is where he has had success in the past and where Speaker Johnson has had success in the past. You know, when the president engages and he puts his shoulder to the wheel, they have had success in getting close votes over the line.
They're not going to amend the bill. You know, this is what it is. They voted, the Senate voted, it's back, and the whole project here tonight is to pass this thing as is by the president's intended deadline of July the 4th.
PHILLIP: Regardless of what's in it? I mean, I think that's really the -- you know, I mean, I think you're right.
JENNINGS: It's 90 percent of --- you know, the House bill, what they will tell you is about 90 percent of what they sent over came back to them. So, it's not a wholesale change, but there were some changes.
PHILLIP: My point is that, you know, you are right on the politics of it, but obviously we wouldn't be here if there weren't some substantive concerns about what's in this bill. One -- you know, here's Trump on Truth Social today. He says, the one big, beautiful bill is all about growth.
[22:10:01]
If passed, America will have an economic re renaissance like never before. It's already happening just in anticipation of the big, beautiful bill, deficit cut in half, record investment cash, factories, jobs pouring into the USA MAGA.
Deficit cut in half? I mean, a lot of his public statements and private statements, frankly, about this bill lead me to wonder and many people to wonder, does he know what is in this bill? Does he really understand what's going on with the bill?
SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It continues to showcase significant resilience and strength. Many business owners, large and small, have indicated in surveys that they are prepared to hire more people. They want to see what happens with tariffs, but they have the capital to hire more. I expect for that to occur once we get through Q3 going into Q4 end of the year.
In terms of unemployment numbers, those numbers are still low. We look at the consumer expenditure reports that came out, I believe, a month or two ago. Those numbers are still strong suggesting that consumers continue to spend.
And so from the Republican disposition in terms of the strength of the economy -- the deficits --
PHILLIP: Because that's really what the question was.
SINGLETON: No. I --
PHILLIP: Does Trump know that the bill doesn't cut the deficit?
SINGLETON: Abby, I reject the premise of the question, because that's based upon the bill --
PHILLIP: You reject the premise of my question?
SINGLETON: No, I do. Because -- can I answer your question, please? It's based upon static -- it's based upon the static assessments of the CBO versus dynamic assessments. Those are two very different economic arguments in terms of projected growth versus stagnation.
PHILLIP: I've not seen any assessment of this bill that suggests that it is going to cut the deficit in half.
SINGLETON: So, you --
(CROSSTALKS)
SINGLETON: Republicans have indeed offer scores in terms of projected growth and expansion of the economy based on dynamic assessments versus static. That's the point I'm making. These are two disparate things.
PHILLIP: It's spending money. It's increasing the deficit and --
SINGLETON: Increasing the deficit. If you go based upon the CBO's projections, which, again, are based off of a static assessment versus a dynamic one. Those key distinctions are very important to the argument here.
PHILLIP: Okay. But the assessments of growth, I mean, and I take it that Trump always assumes that there's going to be blockbuster growth, fine.
SINGLETON: Well, so far, the guy suggests that growth will continue.
PHILLIP: However --
SINGLETON: There's nothing to say otherwise.
PHILLIP: I mean, the economy has been growing for over a decade.
SINGLETON: Absolutely.
PHILLIP: At some point, the economy will slow down, it will stop growing as much as it has been. But the bigger point is I don't know that Donald Trump really understands the spending implications, which is what the conservatives who are not voting yes are concerned about. They are worried that this is too much spending, that's not paid for.
SINGLETON: Look, is there an argument to make that we could potentially have more cuts? I'm a conservative. I'm not against that. The argument that I'm making here though is predicated on the idea that we will continue to see a stronger economy that will expand where you do see additional capital coming from domestically and internationally. That's a good thing.
So, if the argument for this bill is we are passing this thing because we do see projections that indicate growth to us going into the next four quarters next year, then you absolutely should vote for this if you're a conservative. If you're looking at static growth and you're saying, look, based upon previous assessments, we think the economy's going to shrink, then I would be open to that argument. But as a conservative, I'm not interested in entertaining that argument because the data suggests that the economy is indeed growing.
PHILLIP: What if the economy doesn't grow?
SINGLETON: Again, every --
PHILLIP: I guess my point is that you're basically saying to me, I'm only interested in the assessments that reaffirm what I own, I want to believe about growth, about the trajectory of the economy, about this bill.
SINGLETON: I'm interested in the assessments based upon all of the points that I've just made. And if you look at Q1, Q2, you continue to see a resilient economy. You see an economy that is prepared to continue to grow and expand. So, I know how one could draw any other conclusion. This is basic economics here.
PHILLIP: GDP growth was revised downward for earlier this year. You know that right?
SINGLETON: How many times has that occur, Abby? That's not an anomaly for people out there who watching.
PHILLIP: I didn't say that it was.
SINGLETON: Okay.
PHILLIP: I'm just saying that you are suggesting that the economy is gangbusters this year. That's not really been the record. It's been a little bit more mixed. I agree with you that it's been a resilient economy but I think that there is a lot of turbulence happening in the economy right now. And on top of that, as you know --
SINGLETON: I don't agree with that, Abby.
PHILLIP: We are -- as a country, we've been in this place where there's been a lot of growth. If you take out the pandemic, right? There's been a huge amount of growth. There has been nothing done about spending. This bill does nothing about reducing, you know, about the fiscal picture. It does nothing about that. And so now Republicans are saying, well, let's just -- you know, growth is sort of like the magic wand. Growth is just going to fix all the problems. And there are many conservatives who are skeptical of that argument because it just seems like a great way to brush away any concerns that there might be about what's really in here.
JENNINGS: Well, it's not a spending bill, it's a reconciliation bill, and it's largely just about taxes. They're keeping the tax rates and keeping them from going back to the pre-2017 levels. They're also adding more tax cuts for working class Americans. They're also investing in the southern border.
[22:15:01]
They are doing some welfare reform. But at its core, this is about taxes that, as Shermichael pointed out, if we allow the tax rates to expire and we have the largest tax increase in American history, we will not have any economic growth, I can assure you. That would be bad for economic growth.
So, the president's view is, I'm doing what I can do on tariffs and at the executive branch, you guys keep the tax rates low and you add tax cuts and tax breaks for, you know, no taxes on tips and the other things for working class Americans and for senior citizens on Social Security, that will fuel the kind of growth, that if coupled with restrained spending in the future, would allow more deficit reduction.
SINGLETON: Which you build into your assessment about dynamic scoring versus static scoring, which was the premise of my point.
PHILLIP: Restrain spending some time in the future. Restrained spending that never happened under Trump, it didn't happen under Biden.
JENNINGS: Didn't happen under Biden?
PHILLIP: Let me finish. Didn't happen under Biden, didn't happen under Trump number two, who is going to restrain the spending? JENNINGS: Well, that's the job of Congress. That's the thing they got to pay to.
PHILLIP: I guess, you know, the only reason I'm pressing on this is partly because, you know, in Washington, there's often this sort of like, you know, you're on your principles when you're not the one making decisions, and then when you are the one making decisions, then suddenly your principles go away.
(CROSSTALKS)
PHILLIP: Okay? All of a sudden the principles are like, where are they? It's those four folks on that screen right there. I don't know exactly what their beef is with this bill but it's very clear that we are in a place as a country where it's all just talk, talk, talk. And then when the rubber meets the road, here we are doing exactly what Washington always does.
I mean, look, you're a Democrat, I'm sure you're fine with a degree of spending, not this type of spending, but other kinds of spending. But at some point, it has to be dealt with.
KOH: Absolutely, it does. And, look, there's a list miles long of every Republican member of Congress who are decrying Joe Biden for adding to the deficit, who were saying that deficit reform needs to be done. Elon Musk is obviously saying it from the outside. And there's no there's no follow-up from Republicans.
And to answer your original question about what Trump knows when he doesn't know, there's either two things here. He doesn't know what's in the bill or he's lying to people. He tweeted out yesterday, no taxes on Social Security. That's just a lot, right? It would cost a hundred billion dollars a year to eliminate taxes on Social Security.
So, he's just completely either manipulating the public, like he always does, or he just has no clue what's going on.
HINOJOSA: Well, and I think the other thing is that he knows that it's unpopular. He knows the things that are in this bill and the cuts that are happening to the American people are unpopular. The two of you have been making this argument, have been arguing with Abby about this for quite some time, but the American people are not buying it at the end of the day. Your argument is not resonating with the American people. No, they aren't.
SINGLETON: What's the argument from Democrats?
HINOJOSA: The argument from Democrats has been that they're going to take away their healthcare.
PHILLIP: All Right. Well, that is a perfect segue to what is coming next. So, everybody hold their thoughts on that.
Up next, how are Democrats navigating this bill? Hear what AOC is saying and why she's calling it a deal with the devil, as we watch the vote that's happening right now on Capitol Hill, and whether this bill even advances to the next stage tonight. It's a risk at this very moment. Stand by.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[22:20:00]
PHILLIP: And back to our breaking news, the House is right now voting on whether to advance Donald Trump's mega spending bill, and at this very moment it's at risk. Republicans are only able to lose three votes. But in the meantime, Democrats are trying to display a more united front against this bill.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): Every single house Democrat will vote hell no against this one big, ugly bill.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: And some like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are taking a more biblical approach to all of this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OCASIO-CORTEZ: This bill is a deal with the devil. It explodes our national debt. It militarizes our entire economy and it strips away healthcare and basic dignity of the American people for what? To give Elon Musk a tax break and billionaires, the greedy, taking of our nation? We cannot stand for it and we will not support it. You should be ashamed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: So, as of right now, we're looking on the House floor right now, Republicans have four, four nos, which is they can't have that. Democrats as Hakeem Jeffries said, are united. We don't have to guess about that. They are, in fact, united because, I think, they see the politics of this crystal clear, as we've been discussing.
JENNINGS: Yes. They've got to get all ten. So, there's ten Republicans that haven't voted, just looking at it here, and they've got to flip one of those four in order to pass the rule.
You know, another thing I think that's going on behind the scenes in addition to the taxation and Medicaid conversations is the immigration conversation. My guess is one of the persuasion tactics being used on the outstanding Republicans here is the White House believes that this legislation and the investments in border security, the investments in ICE, you know, the investments in, you know, the overall situation that Trump ran on, which is deportations and securing the southern border, I mean, that was a big part of how Republicans won the last election.
So, apart from the economics and apart from the healthcare conversation, there is an immigration conversation and a border security conversation going on in the background that I suspect is heavily persuasive to some of the holdouts. [22:25:01]
PHILLIP: But meaning that they're just being urged to think about what's already in the bill as being important to them? Because the bill is loaded up.
JENNINGS: But, I mean, the conversation would go something like this. Voting against this means voting against the president's agenda when it comes to border security and deportations. Do you want to go home and tell your Republicans and the people who elected you and the president that you stopped him from doing what he said he would do? It's a hard thing. It's a hard thing.
PHILLIP: It's so interesting because that's working both ways in this conversation. It's such an important point that you brought up. So, when J.D. Vance put this out on X on Monday, that everything else, the CBO score, the proper baseline, the minutia of Medicaid policy, immaterial compared to the ICE money and the immigration enforcement position -- provisions, Democrats have now taken that. And according to Politico, they are rushing to portray Vance as the central figure behind the passage of the mega bill with potential 2028 rivals arguing it will come back to haunt the MAGA heir apparent. That is also because back in the day, meaning a few years ago, J.D. Vance talked about how bad it would be for Republicans to take away healthcare from voters.
HINOJOSA: That's right. I think this bill is so unpopular that Democrats believe that it'll not only impact the midterm elections, but it could bleed into the presidential.
One thing I'll say about this is the last time we tried to take away healthcare from the American people, Republicans lost in the midterms and Democrats ended up winning in that presidential race. On immigration, he was elected because he said that he was going to deport the violent criminals. And I will say Democrats did not message well on that. They didn't have a good plan on that. But what's happening is that he's deporting families and he's deporting children and mothers and aunts and uncles and actually going -- he's going after legal immigration, people who have claimed asylum, people who are here legally. He's stripping away, yes, he is, their citizenship and their status. He's stripping away their status through humanitarian parole and TPS, and trying to deport those people too.
And so it's one thing to message the American people, okay, we are going to deport violent criminals, and that's all that we're going to do. And I think the vast majority of Americans would be on your side. Nobody wants violent criminals. I don't think you want violent criminals here in the United States.
JENNINGS: I don't know.
HINOJOSA: We don't. I'm telling you right now, Scott.
JENNINGS: You let a bunch in. So --
HINOJOSA: We do not believe that violent criminals should be here. But no one wants families deported. Nobody wants people who are here to live a better life seeking asylum to be deported. And I think the vast majority of the American people are also for a pathway to citizenship, or at least having people here in the country legally who deserve to be here and follow the rules.
And so when you talk about adding more ice agents and all of these things, yes, if it's going towards those violent criminals, sure. But on the other step, the American people don't agree with Trump.
PHILLIP: The reporting is also, and I think this kind of is borne out by what I've seen, is that Democrats aren't talking about the ICE money. They're not really talking about that. They're talking about the Medicaid provisions, which is why that J.D. Vance X post is so powerful for them, is that he's just like, forget about the Medicaid cuts, focus on the ICE money, and they think that's a good argument against this bill.
KOH: My advice for Democrats is less hyperbole and more specifics on what people actually care about. Let me give you an example. Scott, you care a lot about the National Park system. He's proposing a $1.2 billion cut to national parks since that's the most in the 109-year history of national parks. More specifically, 20 people are being laid off on the Mammoth Cave National Park in Kentucky. 30 percent of Kentuckians are on Medicaid, 200,000 are going to be losing their Medicaid. 35 hospitals in Kentucky receive disproportionate Medicaid funding, and so they're going to be at risk. And 10 percent increase in utility bills Kentuckians are going to see.
I think when you hear that, I think you're going to care a lot more than just hearing hyperbolic statements from Democrats.
JENNINGS: Well, in the Senate they added a rural hospital fund, $50 billion. And so the states, like Kentucky, that have a lot of rural hospitals, and we do, are going to be able to access that money to help offset what might happen.
I don't accept the projections on this, number one. Number two, it is not unpopular to invest in ICE. It is not unpopular to give this agency what it needs to deport violent criminals. It is not unpopular to make sure illegal aliens are not getting welfare. It is not unpopular to take able-bodied Americans who are not doing anything, who are choosing not to work. It's not unpopular to say, we're not paying for your welfare when we're asking everybody else to get up and go to work. These are popular provisions as is no tax on tips, as is keeping the tax rates low.
You keep talking about the popularity of the bill. Individual provisions are exactly how Trump won the national popular vote. It will work if they run the play.
HINOJOSA: But it's currently not working. And that's why you have four no votes currently happening because they're --
[22:30:01]
JENNINGS: You don't know why they're voting no. You don't know what their motivations are, and they may flip.
HINOJOSA: They're -- they're voting no because they don't agree with the bill. They're voting no because --
JENNINGS: They may have individual questions.
HINOJOSA: They -- they're, well, I mean --
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: But -- but the vast majority of Republicans know this is the play the President has called.
HINOJOSA: They had plenty of time, Scott. They had plenty of time to convince and to get their caucus in order to vote for the bill.
JENNINGS: At that mode, it just came over from the senate the other day.
HINOJOSA: And they -- and I will say it is -- it is --Tillis and Fitzgerald are two people who believe that they voted for the bill, that they're going to lose the election.
ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR: And we talk a lot about the Medicaid of it all. But as we were discussing in the previous block, the bill itself on the taxation is sharply regressive, right? That's based on every assessment of the bill.
JENNINGS: It gives more tax rates the same.
PHILLIP: It gives more tax breaks to the rich than to anybody in the lower --
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: -- that we've been living under.
PHILLIP: OK. It gives way more tax breaks to the rich than everybody else. So, well, that's a fact. But let me just play what Representative Josh Riley from New York says about that part of it, how he's messaging this to voters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. JOSH RILEY (D) NEW YORK: Where I come from, we make things. We've kept our heads down. We've kept our sleeves rolled up. We've kept our shoulder to the wheel, and all we've asked for is a fair shot, and for this place to stop screwing us over. But you can't help yourselves. This bill will kill good, blue collar manufacturing jobs that we need to rebuild the economy in this country.
It closes rural hospitals. It defunds healthcare, all to give trillions of dollars in tax cuts to your cronies. Don't tell me you give a shit (ph) about the middle class when all you're doing is shitting on the middle class.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: I mean, that's going to be some people's message and look, a bill that when you look at the numbers, 69 percent according to one assessment of this bill goes in benefits to the wealthiest Americans, it is hard to argue that that plus tariffs that are regressive as well, is something that will benefit the middle class.
SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You know how much money we added to the debt over Biden's four years? Does anyone know? Anybody?
UNKNOWN: I know that Joe Biden --
SINGLETON: Anyone? Raise a hand.
UNKNOWN: That Donald Trump has had of the deficit than Joe Biden.
SINGLETON: $4.7 trillion. Where were -
PHILLIP: How much of that was related to pandemic?
(CROSSTALK)
SINGLETON: Where was the concern for the middle class and manufacturing and economic growth from Democrats then? From what I can remember, they were for the most part silent on taking care of the middle class. They were silent on lowering or tackling the debt. They were silent on trying to focus on prioritizing tax cuts for the middle class.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: Well, I mean, it's kind of like a weird --
SINGLETON: That's like four years --
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: But Shermichael, that's a bit of a weird argument because --
(CROSSTALK)
SINGLETON: I mean, you guys didn't do anything.
PHILLIP: As we were talking about earlier, the Republicans are the one -- ones who say that this is the existential crisis for this country. Democrats have a different set of --
(CROSSTALK)
SINGLETON: Well, Democrats just said that there was an existential crisis or issue for middle class Americans.
PHILLIP: Well, well, he's talking about -- he's talking about -- he said the bill will kill good blue collar manufacturing jobs. I presume some of that is related to the fact that -- (CROSSTALK)
SINGLETON: Well, many Democrats would just argue that those jobs are never coming back.
PHILLIP: Some of that bill -- some of that is related to the fact that the bill basically kills or tries to kill wind and solar energy manufacturing in the United States. He's talking about closing rural hospitals, defunding health care --
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: So, so, in other words, look, the deficits increased under Biden, deficits increased under Trump. When the economy was doing great before the pandemic, Trump spent, all right? So, there's spending happening.
SINGLETON: Sure. Sure.
PHILLIP: But the question is, this bill, in this moment, when middle- class Americans and working-class Americans and poor people in this country are asking for relief, because you -- you all Republicans ran on that, the question is, does it deliver that? Or does it deliver more benefits to the wealthy?
SINGLETON: I think, if the economy grows, you do provide relief to middle-class Americans if that does pan through. Now, if that doesn't work out, then, I'm going to be honest. I can't lie to the American people. We're going to be in a world of trouble.
If we -- if -- if the premise of our argument, which is, we're going to see economic growth, a small business' manufacturers will have more capital to hire more people for training for different skills, et cetera, et cetera. If that does not pan out, then, yeah, we are going to have a political issue.
Because we're promising the American people that part of the reason that we're attempting to do this is because we do foresee significant growth in the quarters ahead. I want to believe that based on the data I have seen thus far. Does that mean the date is always perfect? Absolutely not one side of the other.
But I think for the most part, there's a strong argument to make to the American people to just trust the numbers so far. And the numbers, as I've mentioned, not only showcase resilience but showcases that the economy is looking and waiting for an opportunity to come roaring back. And I think we have to give an opportunity to do so.
PHILLIP: All right. Let's squeeze in a quick break as we are getting closer to seeing whether Trump's agenda is going to advance tonight.
[22:35:00]
Right now, he does not have the Republican votes on Capitol Hill. We're watching that very closely. Stand by.
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[22:39:47]
PHILLIP: Back to our breaking news. At this very moment, Donald Trump does not have the Republican votes to advance his spending bill. There is a lot of arm twisting and conversations happening behind the scenes to potentially change that.
[22:40:01]
Let's go right back to Lauren Fox on Capitol Hill. Lauren, tell us about who has and has not voted at all. There's also holdouts, just, not voted. And those four in the nay column are a huge, huge source of concern for Republican leaders right now.
LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. So, if I'm Republican leadership, one of the best pieces of news so far is that some of the people who had been holding out their votes eventually got to yes. That list is starting to shrink a little bit -- the members who have yet to vote, but I will run through.
There are eight Republicans who have yet to cast a vote. And of those, there are some really interesting holdouts, including David Valadao, who is a Republican from a swing district in California, who has one of the highest Medicaid populations in the entire country and he is the highest for Republicans. It's so interesting because he actually voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act back in 2017 and he ended up losing his re-election in 2018.
Now, there's a myriad of factors that may have contributed to that, but obviously if you're him, that lesson may be looming large in this moment. Meanwhile, if you go down to the column of Republicans who have voted no, it includes Victoria Spartz, Andrew Clyde, Keith Self -- those three have all expressed concerns in the past about federal spending.
But it also includes Representative Brian Fitzpatrick. He is a Republican from the State of Pennsylvania. And interestingly enough, back in 2017 when there was the Obamacare repeal vote, he voted against that, even though he was getting tremendous pressure from Republican leadership in his party. And he was able to survive his re- election in 2018.
So, just a really interesting series of members in those two categories, and what they did back in 2017, the lessons that they may have learned from that. But obviously, this is still ongoing, happening on the floor, leadership keeping this open.
This has been open now for more than an hour. And this just goes to speak to the reality that if you are Republican leadership, you know this is not going to get any easier the longer it hangs out. And in part that is because you start to get into a situation where conservative media, the echo chamber that members hear from, all of that can start to really make this very unmanageable for leadership.
So, they want to move as quickly as possible. And they are starting to make some moves on the floor. But again, there still are those four nos, and they can't have four nos.
PHILLIP: And Lauren, when we got on the air, the not -- the not yet voted column was like 17 members. So, they have shrunk that by basically half. But what does it tell you that there are so many -- that just haven't cast a vote at all. That seems like a large number to -- if you're leadership, to make sure you know where they're going to land on this.
FOX: Yeah, and you know, I'm starting to watch that they've really been having some conversations with those members in that category. And you know, they may get to this place where you want to start to make sure that you're trending in the right direction in the haven't voted category, before you start to move to the people who have already cast a ballot as no, right?
Because that is obviously something that might be tougher to flip on the floor. But they are trending in a better direction. Like you noted, at the top of the hour, they were in the double digits of folks who had not voted. And so far, most of those have gone into the yes column.
PHILLIP: All right, Lauren, stand by for us. This is a live situation happening on Capitol Hill right now. I want to just bring it in to Scott Jennings, who I know you're in close touch with some Republicans on the Hill. What's going through their minds right now?
JENNINGS: So, a few updates, hearing from the White House that the President is fully engaged right now and on the phones. He's been on the phones since 7 o'clock this morning and in meetings. Also, the White House political team is up on the Hill right now working with the members who haven't voted yet or who may need to change their vote.
One other sort of thing that's floating around right now and that, they want to remind Republicans of is that, you know, it was reported today that the President has a $1.4 billion war chest at his disposal for the upcoming midterms.
PHILLIP: That sounds like a threat.
JENNINGS: And he plans to be fully engaged in the middle of the night. I think he plans to be fully engaged for people who support his agenda. So, that's -- that's on the executive branch side.
PHILLIP: Yeah.
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: -- Let me just give you a few of those who are going to come the Hill. So, one member of Congress says it's not over till it's over. I've seen this movie before. Another tells me, I think we'll get there, maybe a few more hours.
So, I think there's some cautious optimism in some of the people I'm hearing from. And make no mistake, behind all that is the President and his team right now reminding people exactly who the leader of the party is and that this is his agenda.
[22:45:03]
PHILLIP: Yeah, that will work for the people for whom Trump is a big factor in their district. But as Lauren was pointing out, someone like David Valadao, Fitzpatrick, those are folks who --
JENNINGS: That's two --
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: Yeah, I mean, they have some other priorities to think about. So, stand by, everyone, for me. High drama on Capitol Hill. Will Trump's agenda even get the chance to go to that next stage? Back in a moment.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[22:50:05]
REP. TIM BURCHETT (R-TN): There's a train coming at us, but at some point you've got to stop it. And I don't like that at one bit.
UNKNOWN: Is this bill something you can still support without those cost-cutting measures?
BURCHETT: Possibly not.
UNKNOWN: Would you vote no on this big bill if SALTS is included?
BURCHETT: I'd have to say there's a lot of things in it that I don't like and that's just one of them. President was wonderful, as always. Informative, funny. He told me he liked seeing me on TV, which is kind of cool.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIP: That's Republican Tim Burchett who is currently one of the holdouts who has not yet voted to advance Donald Trump's bill. Right now, it's all at risk. I mean, Tim Burchett went to the Hill or to -- sorry -- went to the White House. He got a lot of flattery from Trump. J.D. Vance tweeted something nice about him. Trump tweeted something nice about him. He was pretty upbeat even though he said earlier tonight on CNN that he was still a maybe.
The honey is the flattery, but as Scott just pointed out, there is a little bit of an undercurrent of a threat here that the stick will come eventually. So, what's going to win out? Or is there another player here? Maybe Elon Musk, who's got, you know, I don't know, many, many billions of dollars to spend.
SINGLETON: Yeah, I don't think -- I don't think Elon would really matter much in Tim's district. He represents a very conservative district, voted overwhelmingly for the President. For the most part, his voting record is probably 95 percent with Donald Trump. I think there's an opportunity in room for him to move over. I don't know what it would take.
But I can certainly see that happening and maybe you get one of the other individuals out of the four to say look, if you're in a vulnerable district, we understand that it's going to be challenging by the President. House Republicans will do whatever we can to support you financially to make sure that you have the resources to run a competitive race against a Democratic opponent. I think that that's something that one of those members will likely be open to.
JENNINGS: So, this issue on the floor, Spartz of Indiana is one of them, right?
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: She has said, I guess publicly today that she's a no on the rule which is the vote we're covering right now, but would be a yes on final passage.
SINGLETON: Oh, and then there you go.
JENNINGS: So, you have to wonder if someone is not maybe explaining to her that changing to a yes on the rule would allow you to get to a place where you could be yes on final passage.
PHILLIP: I would just say this would not be the first time that Victoria Spartz has changed her vote from a no to a yes at a critical juncture. So, I think they probably couldn't count on her to do that. And maybe, I don't know. It feels like a likely scenario. But you also have those not yet voted. That column is very important. There are a lot of people on that list. We just talked about Burchett, but there are several others. Valadao, you know, Chip Roy.
JENNINGS: Did Valadao vote to impeach Trump? Impeachment case?
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: I'll have to check that.
DAN KOH, FORMER WH DEPUTY CABINET SECRETARY UNDER PRESIDENT BIDEN: It is not a surprise to anyone at this table or to the American public this is a president who governs on fear, and the intimidation the consequences of not voting with Donald Trump are not lost at any of these people which in my mind is a referendum on how unpopular this bill is on both sides of the aisle, right?
You have Republicans who don't like the fact that this is adding historic numbers to the deficit, and then Democrats are seriously concerned about the Medicaid cuts and all that. So, I think it shows how seriously unpopular this bill is.
PHILLIP: In a wave, so the answer is yes, he did.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: Scott Jennings, good memory.
(CROSSTALK)
PHILLIP: And in a wave, we were talking about the sort post-Obamacare repeal environment. In a wave environment, what do you expect? Because, you know, my political memory is that in these types of wave environments, money can only help you so much.
HINOJOSA: That's right, it can only help you so much. And when a -- you, the Republicans would have to do a lot of work to sell this bill because it is terrible. And the American people already, going into it, don't like it going into the midterms. They do not like this. Democrats will be spending money.
They've already started to spend money in these vulnerable districts. And they're going to be hammering away about how Medicaid cuts in these districts impacts their constituents. And so, this is going to be a wave election. I believe it will be one on healthcare. Democrats have seen it before. We've seen it on both sides of the aisle.
And so, I think it is interesting that instead of Trump trying to convince Republicans of the bill, Republicans are on social media right now, people in Trump's inner circle talking about how you either vote for -- you either vote for it with Trump or you vote with Democrats. And if not, we're going to primary you. And that -- it's not much about the bill. It is more about loyalty to Trump and the base, and to his big bill instead of the actual substance.
SINGLETON: I think the dominant theme next year is going to be about the economy overall. And one thing that we haven't really factored into this is what will Jerome Powell ultimately do going into the last quarter of the year.
[22:55:00]
He has stated in this most recent Fed meeting that they're preparing to lower rates there. They want to see what happens with the economy as a result of tariffs, how that impacts things. But if the tariffs haven't had the impact that some on your side have argued that they may, then I think you lower rates, that's going to be an amazing thing for the American people.
You're absolutely, we were talking about this during the break. You're going to feel that in real time, credit cards, housing, et cetera. And so, if that happens, I think Republicans have a strong message to run on a good economy.
PHILLIP: All right, everyone, thank you very much. We are standing by for this vote result. Will the White House flip those four no votes and get the President's agenda across the finish line? Stand by for that.
But first, a special treat as you head into the holiday weekend. We had an extra off-menu debate that we will share with you online. What are the best movies of this century based on a "New York Times" list that's got everyone talking? It is a digital exclusive. Scan that Q.R. code on your screen now to watch it.
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